Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
/ H$ R1 ?- c3 uIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
TD can give you 4.2%.
BMO can give you 4.3%.
# Z3 ^8 a; W2 u" U$ `5 {' t9 Z6 D$ RRBC can give you 4.0%.
6 a% E) @, X# Z- U; r* i(Roughly)
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
& n5 }( h+ n( h0 g7 A  E7 W8 U% EAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
1 P2 X* s% P4 A4 V% zFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
Rough calculation:
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
  W$ j4 j* T" {6 CBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
* Y- O- `. j7 y* n' l, n( ZIf US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
5 g* a! W# F9 ~- C: N7 N( \# M5 DIf US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.

5 L) ?7 v. K! t  jAll above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
# v$ v: n5 d9 p& D; `Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
: P+ \* O  {% m. G  y6 t- cIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

. U7 U6 m6 I, i/ s) t
这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
+ H, H6 W6 L4 J0 R; Q+ G2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
1 q  G: N- q" r# e! C. H而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
" P& y/ Q. d! i0 E# D" ]政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

# Z, D+ V$ [9 T: n( J7 u呵呵，多打了个0。

3 E& L, V: r/ y% O多谢。

把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
4 Z: R+ B: ~7 R# o. I0 ^2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
9 ]7 `1 Y- X% W8 x8 ^$ R而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。 ...

但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。

! \5 s* ^; M4 j4 ?% v4 D现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
. T2 I  K. J1 Z1 _6 r; U5 x$ }还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
1 w) i. s, T& G如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
4 T/ X" }4 X; T+ Z, q你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"

+ y! w7 a+ a/ m5 r3 \9 a[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]