Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

: p, t. f  q+ B7 kDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
8 F9 t; ~5 R+ z2 y5 V. H5 h" |; m% Z
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
9 K: F* A3 a3 r1 m4 S
2 y: h& V% V! ?# O" MAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
3 Y, I" d( x" L: e# g
) h0 I. C. `3 R- _. `; D' vJul 2007
: e& g- _0 |# I* H- F NA
6 p" _! [; L+ q1 ^4 j, u* _# s0 K 2328
' l) t* r- }" n 717
442,752
410,000
320
28
2 [" ~* O, L$ ?. ]4 h4 Y8 S 31%

9 w1 W4 s4 a. {9 O% f. E5 @Jun 2007
, w/ b% I& k4 |3 {/ V NA
2661
1 d. f1 f; t: o# ^/ u6 y 1011
1 K; v% R/ E& U! [8 t 442,817
6 b: I7 L& b0 {( O- m 409,000
" j4 N+ n4 k+ @! ~$ j8 T. P1 V& ] 328
22
38%

. K( q6 O* l- a5 aMay 2007
NA
2288
1261
451,216
2 s, {& r( v5 Y: o& z7 b$ i 415,000
322
7 y5 J5 T- j* A 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
" t7 E+ }0 E7 k. B' R2 N鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
+ M9 ]4 E; `! C6 u这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

! i: O' \- b$ {( q! \用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
8 y2 m2 E0 t2 G( {  P1 o( Y2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
# {# V+ A5 a6 C7 `6 L6 D3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
& O6 p, V0 T6 H# y1 ^" `' {" L存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

- O9 {4 g) {! h  k" W呵呵，太不专业了吧。

+ h5 a! ^( S% Y* l% O7 t2 {新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
% ]3 Q4 b. G2 i, a
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
3 V8 Y' u, T" w# R8 q- R& H
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
0 W! u) v4 A+ @$ ^3 K; n" }) \Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

3 s' Z5 h$ u' }' X2 j# d
/ \( O" m3 ?6 ?! _9 _

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
  N9 c3 B+ l: hIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
# F4 Q0 k/ Y. E8 k" r1 V, iThat is what i say half full or half empty.
2 d2 Y) h& p1 K8 p- ~good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
' ]) ?1 M1 X9 rHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

0 u/ r5 Y# X& k9 {4 k$ y" b- D
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
9 P2 C! l% x$ e7 e4 J1 Z" e: dEdmonton Single Family Home
% R# l& U% ]0 H! w4 }MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
, ^$ E7 t- }% M  F& ONote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

( w7 I  H) C* X( O6 _0 z6 L6 Q. f5 cQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

: q( f' `8 V/ u. }; x* I8 H
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

! `) a# N- T/ ]9 g

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

, E$ G& Z, V4 _# w, J; m/ I下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
4 s2 U8 m- C7 |5 g% {


只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。