Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
& _4 [( Q) _7 {; u+ j- Q$ U( ^8 m$ kNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
: `/ M. s$ ^4 W
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

0 L( _8 r, t4 L. Q( i+ kOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
1 [" Y- e. i' {2 ^, e8 J$ m
8 U9 o5 n4 q" ^- V8 q$ ySep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

/ G6 f9 D5 a9 N3 ^- S6 nAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

) @" b+ n# {! Q$ k; P% w$ T( b& bJul 2007
NA
  ~4 A7 ?# _' [$ B- B& ~5 ? 2328
717
442,752
410,000
320
" f, T- z  d# q3 o! X 28
  f5 l6 `7 c5 _3 _ 31%

. R( l6 a1 A2 t4 mJun 2007
, p( w2 ^5 R( |# R NA
2 w' c" l0 k8 X9 o" @: i 2661
1011
442,817
409,000
& ]5 k3 x$ F2 { 328
22
7 N( p, R- Q" Y9 K 38%

May 2007
+ ~5 j, R+ {7 f- `& A  C: L- Z! Y NA
2288
1261
451,216
2 l) g6 g9 m9 _6 } 415,000
1 r) P% Y) K0 V2 u3 e' @ 322
+ T8 e. }6 N  o( [8 L- n6 k 19
+ l$ r( Q9 F% z% s/ M& l" o 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
2 j1 E& i1 g' g. k5 f; I& \, ~鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
) U9 d& ]" n  R: w, p存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

, @; V, w& n0 j6 s. t, y用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
7 q" i$ O( U7 |5 K2 a7 [2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
( D8 `6 o' V5 `3 P3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
7 N2 `5 `' b% a7 o鉴定完毕！

( L2 @  S( \6 e0 y4 |( c+ P/ [& m呵呵，太不专业了吧。
+ {' K* u& i5 I$ z
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

3 P/ s# o, Q6 }就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

4 @" @2 ^. {% x* i9 @, T. F

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

. K0 W" m; Y4 t

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
0 ]# [' ~  b5 R& S  R: H: pIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
7 ~1 @7 ^  F0 G) ^Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
! l$ G/ ^6 [' z- a: K7 e! hEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
% ?1 |7 X: c, E8 o0 eIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


$ G; o, G$ K8 p) M4 zI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

8 ]4 z2 I! g) B" ?" E% M

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
2 _  r' G! l! [0 G3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

" v' Z/ R. i1 x9 K" l
; W1 q2 m4 u7 v4 ?下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
$ i# [8 M6 N& f
2 b2 W7 |; `) U  R+ S' V3 l7 S/ v2 |7 K
  ]% G6 q/ H+ O( m+ c
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
2 q- V- C' b, ^4 n: ]0 Q4 |看来，观察days inventory 更重要。