Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
! W, C2 B: ~  O2 X1 w" V' iMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
- J3 k; ^: B3 s& a& I. J. W
- L- V- b/ M! J" G+ v% D& IDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

9 N9 N9 [& W/ v* J7 [Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

% ?1 s4 Q" D) b& D$ v, x1 N6 wSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

' N) _( r1 N  t* K  ~) {7 T, _3 iAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
0 f) W/ U. g* i/ N1 M3 B1 i, N
3 k2 b# N% q  \! lJul 2007
& W3 ~6 n9 ]( c& A/ i. @ NA
2 b% d$ l2 z- z$ h" [7 O 2328
, o; f7 A4 x. I8 _7 W8 c3 ?( f 717
442,752
410,000
320
28
& \. X# f% E$ X; j. B* F$ g% @8 T( U 31%

1 j0 s6 n' ]4 ?( yJun 2007
" L+ V) T0 O2 ]5 {" d) O NA
3 K/ {% G/ Q9 E, J 2661
1011
442,817
409,000
328
9 K3 k+ k0 @# }4 n+ m: k 22
! `& I/ n' k7 s% w! b3 I  ~2 a 38%

May 2007
% M$ @9 N( h- n0 l7 Z+ m NA
2288
# x% M, Q4 @. r6 E. o- j1 x# ` 1261
451,216
415,000
( X; L8 Z4 r! y5 ` 322
: j4 q8 U6 l$ D0 x) A# ^- \ 19
" Z& e5 a& r+ J0 t 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
" z; ?# n9 o; a5 @/ d, ]  P这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
; s5 C1 |: \' X: J) M3 D8 \存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
5 c  ^2 W+ m9 @7 T. d8 Z- e3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
3 @/ I& H0 t+ D* |  k鉴定完毕！

4 P- M6 k. ]; I* X0 u, u$ i6 w# y
* [3 k9 m, z. F! N! q4 t呵呵，太不专业了吧。
+ D# _' f: C6 z6 @. U9 }2 x1 n
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

; o& m, Z4 M& @6 q+ ^就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
6 m) j4 k' o/ ^
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

( k4 T% _0 a( [) o  }

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
3 H8 F' D$ V& \5 b' e/ fHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
2 N3 p3 W* i  @  Bgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
& W5 L/ e( }  |; b# qIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
  T6 x  l, q& e$ B! N# PEdmonton Single Family Home
6 Q3 }/ o# Y) s5 ?& F6 @) K( G7 wMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
. ]8 p  C' z6 D) F5 kNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
% u! u& F' F& g8 K' i

/ [/ N/ c% K9 C7 r& ^I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
: ?7 O( k6 s5 U8 q" Z, f! F0 g3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

/ }+ W- `$ e7 |0 q# L8 E$ ?下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
2 q+ a$ u  n' B+ l" x. Y看来，观察days inventory 更重要。