Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
  y3 y5 ^  v) @! X9 S5 FMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
2 u) f# X3 x& h! T" |Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
- ], z* G  j' ?: ?% ^Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

/ q# O" E# u* KDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
$ h! C! [! Y6 {& S
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
6 C3 c' G( w( Y" d/ }% W" J; G
( ]0 b8 \$ M3 a# p" w8 e  c0 x4 xAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

# X. q5 q9 S9 P9 V- [2 PJul 2007
NA
2328
5 {" G" v7 K, O% M7 |0 U 717
442,752
) W) R; T1 o% v5 r# h0 \6 }4 d2 G. ~ 410,000
3 b" e- V, Q+ {5 I 320
, {" Q2 x/ v/ {( [$ r' d7 l7 V 28
, b+ z" z6 i2 i9 x9 f- t- E 31%

- `4 B, W' Z& ^9 u$ n/ j* Q7 |" v$ tJun 2007
NA
2661
* |7 [% G& w. a" w2 p4 c 1011
442,817
! _9 ]% m1 O- z6 n) J 409,000
$ e# a# y" v7 N, W7 N# B& k 328
22
38%

May 2007
NA
0 w* D$ b5 l/ Q& D" }2 O: b 2288
1261
3 H" |# r$ e0 T4 [" C. q1 h: U 451,216
) @+ P5 X+ |- q 415,000
322
! Y, M" Z3 V: l$ Z5 q% h: z6 V# u0 s% D 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
: c6 R7 s! ~5 p% {4 n* U2 W存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
9 d9 `0 U) _' p0 Q3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
9 f- }; }, W! {  L" f存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
( m4 G! E' u7 M' x" \鉴定完毕！

1 x+ }! i9 D! m3 i* w呵呵，太不专业了吧。
* l3 f0 y! B6 v* K
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

0 g; _* Q6 h9 f3 E, i/ i( ?就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
. `& b6 E7 a; d5 u' [
; J+ F# t" b( r$ [2 b% f1 f这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

$ G- x/ M4 h9 d0 p5 d* e

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
( O& W0 F, {! K9 T) `# DHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
& ~5 ]+ R5 i8 Q- i9 e% Q( r) HIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
3 e2 e) g& ^5 |. R( U/ ^How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

6 X9 e. Y) A% TI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
- y0 R8 A0 m$ `. G- a2 \( m- s) ~Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
# A9 ~" y* M6 C1 M7 O1 K2 ZNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


; j# I8 a: Y% G8 Z' G9 @I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
1 [4 I% [% g- \1 n1 l( t, L2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

4 o9 w; r4 q* |, B4 G# I
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
7 W- g" ~) {. B; O% t! w


2 _& ~1 t' _! ]8 ]# y) Y只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。