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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 7 A3 ~! K- n5 i/ T! X
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat ! I }$ d6 ` u) E2 A
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US4 O2 s* ~# p: _: G) S5 R, e9 o
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern) |9 M4 E: Q9 Z$ P, j" c% V9 R
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging4 A% ]) A. \0 Z1 N) G
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
! f+ X# R& R8 j6 z: R# tand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more5 d. h# @1 ` Q8 V
upbeat.
6 g# d% a# k5 j- q( N0 q4 z( u Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
- `4 A8 u U" t) L: k4 e1 ~1 nannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
* H: C$ }0 Q" e; b- V: n% `interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real; b2 ^9 Y& C1 ~# d/ Q+ c& h
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
& c2 x3 N4 d. J0 irepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.! U% l. b; o$ X) x
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
8 J7 P) g+ b j6 \including Asia Pacific and Europe.) H6 ~+ T9 ^5 |& _9 A0 _- y- z6 h
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian8 X: ~; O( u) z* p
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
5 {. W' G8 i* yenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
3 {9 i3 x3 {% n; nbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
_7 B+ h# J. T5 T4 i; m9 Whighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
# l+ e" C$ J: N: ?& @ According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
3 p6 V' F- {: N5 C( \ v3 Uborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
* C9 x( W! z6 @6 s1 g/ ospeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
8 R) b4 S( C+ X2 Premain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US/ x, z& i" A4 B8 u" X
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
" G/ V: c# I. t8 i4 fvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
# m! _3 V5 V# r( B: {) ?! f9 f The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian1 ?/ {, Y9 l6 f+ T- d2 v+ @4 @
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
2 H; Q$ d# B7 V" h( O1 P% b& ^" Bcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land9 A" W( L: R' l
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
: u8 F) P0 F: j; ? `5 Mespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating7 O' p3 i1 _4 i9 ^3 `4 x
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
$ n" I+ H c; |) c- |/ Z6 f0 Presidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to+ n- y6 `0 F1 p) B
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
. J. g4 N5 k/ t6 c" {+ a- xsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
6 X4 ^% _+ q' O1 n: J, V! x' ` Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with/ P e2 Q: S: e/ U
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
4 ~# ~8 y0 i: ^1 z) F5 l3 vmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push7 I6 L3 [8 S" ?/ { |& N
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
: Y+ C# N" j- f5 _new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
6 m( j/ }# G \+ B$ tand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
9 s! |0 M6 M/ y' Z7 F" X( ^apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary( |4 ?% e5 [7 l5 `6 L
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing: }- ~$ P. y3 q( i. D' C1 x
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
6 [- e. k$ K6 N) }( W% Rthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development$ G0 g$ Y# B- Q' j i# n
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central% t( a3 ]9 q2 w' r
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour g0 T0 ?4 w# h& T; `+ {( z& c* z: [
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back/ Y- O; d- t2 u3 G8 k
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in8 \- O1 n6 q! M; y1 R/ O9 Z
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
, L& A" O9 Y( Z" M( l5 x+ xprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
5 S3 z7 v0 N @+ F: `west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment' S3 ]) x4 Q- r K) U, N7 t% i, n- P: G) O
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
[2 z8 k& g7 ?8 Z3 D# h) t+ O/ ^" A- _whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
' K6 ~. H( }6 cToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
3 z [5 w( H2 P% Uratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging. i6 ~2 y' v3 c: i) K/ l, _; L* i/ W5 S
; Q4 M$ O* D7 ]+ R: Y. P Calgary/Edmonton8 r# k5 q) H# {$ X7 b
( V0 ^1 {9 N; i& U) }
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one C: R( s8 u& q1 D$ A
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
6 |6 D5 t4 x7 J7 fbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
- R% T) @; {7 B* y9 j! V2 y/ i48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
+ R6 B" f7 H" V1 l8 xFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
7 L; y2 n) z" P5 e- I4 ]Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the6 J) [3 M/ x; w0 a0 C3 ]( p
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays) Q$ A* [- i8 S- r q
strong, this market will continue to do well.' X% O% P$ w( e
8 [/ q4 ~; V9 Y, r Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is8 Q* e7 k/ ]9 N/ k
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
3 U3 D! s5 I- ~& Jreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
1 m' n+ F/ ?# a* wmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
* p! ~8 y$ F& ]* Ygrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy3 V2 g* t8 s+ ]' a- z2 W) w$ @
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%1 ?' g1 [- m1 t1 h7 ]2 `8 O
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%, V. x6 n! o7 S* s# b! s
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very! i( F4 R3 N! b9 q+ [. a5 ?
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
1 u! R5 |. e0 L* o7 A2 [. o8 M. n ]+ |+ i% y
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
# J! R4 k4 l+ ^! omanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is' }% i. s' q, |8 }
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing& r, I* D) o) o% e8 @
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.! {0 `# g3 \7 f- q2 {% s
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square, \; e5 S: F K
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
! P, U5 U9 W3 aApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.9 s! F7 h/ u1 S0 K
( a6 y1 k* h2 j# b6 P! O+ `! M( L
Montreal
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+ x9 |8 }# S$ Z# }4 w' W Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
4 q* w* {; V1 }growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
, L$ C% m, Y8 n, Q9 sshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in% J- J* m1 ~* d" ~! D$ s% Z
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate; l; k J! Y; ]& X0 P
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
T2 \$ h7 j- W, `higher as a "hold" recommendation.
$ a6 ^, j% _+ Y. d8 M6 ~2 M: g
% l& v4 y( }. v9 U8 K+ d2 u" B The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years( G$ x Z/ h! f' y* S
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
, r0 V& l- E4 {4 zmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
- a+ e( J- {4 G4 |near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
]. L+ r& Z2 p* [9 Joverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
* K9 d- o8 ^; |2 xprices."' P: b# C+ C' A$ A& f. j( F% \
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at. ]6 ^/ H; s- M" x1 ]1 S# E: ]$ J
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.4 C' T9 Q3 D' X) u# F1 G
% z" s1 Q! H& ^( M/ [! o5 @, t About PricewaterhouseCoopers
9 H2 f/ b/ H p0 X. g6 h
1 w0 H4 C# ?, B) |3 n, P& T PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,+ D8 f' ~; D P" y6 ?* u1 U
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its, o5 n( Q) @* H2 [, z) p9 V
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
8 L/ `7 ]# Y. i* R' _across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
8 G6 i! U: T6 kfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
9 c/ Z, w$ J3 X/ e( sexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its8 ~9 m) G3 l- m9 A
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the L* l7 y6 ^( h3 F7 W
country.8 h/ Y5 ~' {( F: l( W
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
0 k0 a/ \6 d0 Y5 b1 e7 n" \( Dlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the9 x$ a* A" S7 L `+ `$ G
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,( P# ?& D$ i ^& v N
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute- D" c; ?0 ^8 T* @" Q. l
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
! C5 j0 R, G) N& }& _research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide$ a) v' ?( A5 }9 L: c$ L
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
* b5 X8 F! P6 A: \8 W# ithriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more# M& F& r; Z# s. D# K% y* T& c( e5 m1 }
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development" ]1 n, h) V$ Z8 {( n& }
disciplines.) s( s* e; ^, v, O: q, ~
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
% W N4 Q+ c! J# J1 ^& HWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District+ K$ E9 Q" E; c
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is( J% c$ j4 ~1 v
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be1 y. g9 L( L5 M8 l+ j
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
] y5 Z2 \7 X: F2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake6 N4 Z+ a4 W& K
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
; M) b/ F% U- M3 IPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please+ N& U& V# N9 J6 p6 M- z
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on. B* I; j1 @2 c5 T
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.+ K$ D7 c% o5 L
- K$ c/ z0 A; I
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
7 G4 f) F9 M% s5 H: j& p7 D(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
4 G$ _. Y) j6 v% \http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html( Z% Y& C ~9 t& v) g4 [# I# O( V
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