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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 5 S) k$ ]8 @/ Z4 `+ Z `5 L
( e! K' L9 m0 E: IDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 3 ], ?6 X3 @+ K
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
5 R$ Y, W& k6 scommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern8 N: x7 l B8 l0 u1 }3 |, v/ S% t
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging! J2 U* T% y, o; E, K
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
0 P$ J' d4 P3 c1 n! L" R1 V# fand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
0 Y2 A& o$ ~- x4 b3 E( [upbeat.4 |2 S n& c3 h. ^6 x' c
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded2 e0 \; g: m! E$ K# O! I- V2 D
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
]) z0 @$ M) p3 h8 `interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real! E. F6 L' a7 ^1 G% p- v
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company: X1 Z; G8 L* U1 } c& M5 j. ^/ w
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
2 n' H [& s9 e oOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world, W% t( b- x. M) _
including Asia Pacific and Europe.& M/ I, J' {" P- s
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
2 I; B6 |: K4 SReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
) z% l x; B" \# S/ n8 Venvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
2 V' Q+ f! u$ n- ?" |be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
* @. c6 f, y* P; F* n2 Shighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.", ^+ `% W J; t- M4 z) N4 l
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the; x# M1 Z7 i! `
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
) D% ~2 I( H7 k% j) y- O6 Bspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey$ |5 A1 n3 k2 h4 s
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US3 T& l- ~0 R; G
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
7 j" B! S9 V5 tvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
' V, }# @0 `8 _1 Z1 p6 g+ s+ S The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian: U) z% ?: @* Z& U, _
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by! o2 H' |: P$ t% S
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land; }. k: Q" \( C/ @; M6 O
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country# z L! w+ F3 A6 ~( n
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating$ h. e- D& g! c7 e& K7 M3 w2 O; J
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
* @' B- n. N* G: R" e4 S# t- `residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
7 @/ j% M) Q+ _take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
/ C& X1 k7 X/ I5 J- _' v/ ssingle-family housing looks overpriced.
$ ^- k# x! ^+ N Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
* |2 z* t5 v0 dtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
( G: u$ g6 X7 m3 Bmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push9 K. }4 m8 d. d( a# Y, R
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting$ ^& A; U/ \1 M! ^0 Z
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
# {" t. o* ]4 oand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental2 T% U9 m; ^1 W/ e6 p
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
) J) w" Z6 }- O. N6 b" a/ e7 p4 cwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing# ]( d/ q4 C; L8 D
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into. `, B0 V1 ]" b. }. ~
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
! h; p% c. @* a- _, x* ^ c {5 Uin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch- s. m8 |3 R" x4 F8 ~: Y+ F7 o
+ m2 W2 @ G7 Z. F1 k9 R" ^
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central- B0 O9 J% V7 ~6 q3 }
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour; p1 k, n$ O' |5 @
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back8 j" x" b8 `* b* K9 P6 O
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in; G" T8 {. D0 P% P( o3 }
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical2 v3 d9 N6 Z2 ^; Z8 h
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
. C+ s3 w( d$ Q$ H8 U1 Q/ bwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
. `% p4 Q* z) L: }prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
% m0 f5 e( y8 B. Ewhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
, w4 D5 q6 v+ z; y9 tToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
2 A# H" E+ [% j1 B) [4 c% Aratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.5 A" l( A6 f) i2 b8 V x; q
9 o" O0 T" k7 f% ~
Calgary/Edmonton& X$ g: }) V% s, U1 {' F
- ~0 y0 `! ^/ y% k- E7 G9 d0 e5 \& w Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
# E6 P$ M/ ?( D* ~% dboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
+ z) O2 u' S$ X" A C( Abuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,/ ^2 E* e: P+ I. X0 T
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.5 ^' m# r& ~, n8 O! j3 Y7 d* V3 }
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale: v/ \, l6 Z$ B/ I( c+ ^: }+ z
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the) i0 h+ g6 S- Q) T: q; T& y
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays% Y. N `% Z8 ^
strong, this market will continue to do well.
: B# C. \9 h& w; U- J- s0 |! e( _1 p$ K7 G; N( y$ m6 V h& ~8 D
Vancouver/ U% x& \6 b% n( [4 i9 B( H
6 H# {: r. m" X$ k9 t
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is1 M0 P( e+ L5 Q/ C0 a/ k
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
& p0 O% d+ B" @* k9 d; freal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the! O N$ z# m* L" |: T
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
% e1 p% F' Y* vgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
# Y/ ?. }) s- N4 Q6 |recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%' w2 D2 W+ v# E' V+ |4 L- G
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%+ {' p9 z7 k; ~4 L g
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very' h% {1 H6 D+ Z; N9 S6 d" w
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects." O. N0 i* u8 c$ o: w/ L
5 W! \: H1 `! }0 l Toronto# @8 R' C; s# u. p ]
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
+ I( p m, U) @& i) kmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
5 m8 v* l$ Y) ?9 }6 `1 Z( e% o/ urelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing7 ?' y* r0 \9 w% V' b7 Q
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
B# C8 |, n& U0 h6 E2 G% yThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square* V) U& x2 B/ D# M
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
0 ~* z& J9 _8 ?3 v ?7 q# ]Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys." W* Z A! R, J( ^- r( {
7 @% J1 @# [0 E* Y5 s9 Z5 e
Montreal
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3 e2 z8 s& S% q% [% k9 F Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
3 {* W9 S2 U6 S, J3 c# B+ tgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
7 F7 B5 p2 V k2 N- m8 {7 hshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in" ?) P! @/ H6 Z9 a! ~
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
3 D; `& `6 ~) f) C; U# isectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
' K* W5 ~# @4 t5 q+ j4 ?8 m' Uhigher as a "hold" recommendation.: `: G4 U& _( Z! X8 k+ Z$ U
8 s# H( Q; f$ @) Y" g# I The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years! H+ {" e; ^$ w& J; s
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
3 c! s$ F3 h5 f9 k+ J# Nmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
& s, O8 j. g& E* ^2 B/ mnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
% Q8 @# k+ S% M8 K% Z) B* p0 ?overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current8 g/ y; j- }5 ~! l
prices."
4 w6 N: Z, i k4 v A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at7 E1 A) M% `$ p( K% l8 D! ?! v. G
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.2 C6 e$ J% X' T; i. Q
. E! w) C3 m% `& |7 B% A8 M. R About PricewaterhouseCoopers
$ g# l& P. X& O8 O( A3 S r# I F) b4 L7 N' N' O3 m
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,+ z/ y: e9 B; ^6 Q- S2 W
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
' e6 q* [3 R8 _8 E7 w$ O# f+ Tclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries! C* D6 X! N+ j: K, Q, a7 }6 O! A
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
5 }$ s! n( q: e: e/ afresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of. E) B% j' K1 X! `' m+ l
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its+ k$ h& T- L% H8 n' [! k9 B( w
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the6 Q( c: R4 p& s% z
country.1 q+ F. v5 z* k/ Z5 d' W$ ?
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario9 O0 U1 H) L5 ?& k0 d
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the q4 ?8 W; M) e# e* I
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,. ~1 W( r$ w8 g5 \9 N
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.6 v2 S0 G8 o% m1 _
2 ~2 L- _5 e( G1 f n About the Urban Land Institute
8 Q* x$ R4 ]8 Z; ~) V$ Y' K" J5 ^. L u* u: Z% a3 `
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
. r2 a6 y3 |% d. Nresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
0 K! g+ \9 w' ]2 O0 i* cleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
$ d! u8 V2 O) K0 q+ ithriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
6 q0 h4 k$ x5 L+ P! @. q% Bthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
j- |% f+ [# E2 p q9 R+ Rdisciplines.* Z0 t6 A! E: q F
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
: i3 ?5 {/ a1 s' W9 [. E+ _1 nWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District2 u/ t+ h9 p9 t5 X( @
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
4 |2 I6 J4 I( y4 e l3 R& w) hnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
: U6 P( ]$ {8 r, V; _hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,, P t$ f1 v+ ]% F
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
$ X& D" E1 c$ O2 {Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,- \0 G7 K2 u) Z% I, v
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
2 h0 C5 p% I P5 Kcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on3 L7 d+ S2 ?" ^! m: q
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.5 g4 T0 P" H4 k
% p+ W* P% u" m4 p3 y' |8 a2 d
1 r5 E ]# L6 ?3 d
- A9 C3 U: {% n, wFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
; `" C, Y+ v) A' @(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com2 [0 `' s/ W2 D- f3 j
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html' M! I9 l4 o6 r
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