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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 5 Y* k+ w6 L% t/ N. L: v( ]
3 h/ q! i) d9 N4 I
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
0 B8 x% n: F1 M. Y) |7 q* z: S TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US/ h% b' } B4 W' ?' e8 A! c0 `
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
C" q9 t% [( o5 k* O, \% x) eas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
- ~6 m' O& D4 S& N5 A5 WTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
7 M1 X% w% n; l' wand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more0 Y- M7 A( f% ~& G1 K7 r
upbeat.
7 ^$ @! b- M& _8 ^' j9 T Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
8 j$ ~, ]4 B3 u/ e' [7 p' Zannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
1 P. ^8 X2 p* f; P3 T+ j) ?interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real5 \, P7 o9 D+ g; q4 Y
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company. e$ h9 k8 k: w9 u
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.6 H2 i9 G6 H0 P" K( m3 r
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
: c4 o' h; j. Aincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
& R& Z4 j2 _' U" m. y) z According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
$ q* X* g/ V* A* r$ Y X9 H$ EReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
# {0 [3 K t0 Y; Renvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
# P6 l* O6 F5 z: H1 @) Sbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record+ X6 s) w& c K$ P9 F% k# f O7 b
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."7 U! p6 n7 X$ n! d4 G
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the7 ^# i& j s- X1 Z% S% N2 {
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game# u! I# [% T7 g( w6 A) V
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
" T, @' }( D o0 I& g7 S/ Premain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
4 A* K9 Y1 l2 t, H* Bcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be/ b$ }; k2 y6 f8 N9 ^/ p, @9 k% |
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.4 z% u2 G# |- ]/ W1 m; {" z
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian' K' p! g! A8 c0 L& H' E
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
# _9 I$ g+ Y% v L' \commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land$ a/ p2 {6 M- a/ O/ A
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country3 r/ B$ n6 X9 j
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating8 q, w0 G O7 d; j# P
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The1 n7 j, \5 K* {
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to j0 d1 A" x7 [6 w5 ]& a/ l
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
5 v( t' Z% ? B2 J7 `8 T% p- s% {: Bsingle-family housing looks overpriced.$ b. h& Y6 `/ c3 e& |& ?! `
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
5 J& h( s# ~' ~9 k+ G: [3 z0 c- H: Btenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian8 m9 F: C; F a2 ?2 |
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push- C7 H8 b. t, G2 F3 j3 Z- l
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting1 U9 X+ m" \! N/ j! P# v
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
) I! S I$ a2 G9 Y. J5 h( Hand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
" u( ~# M$ p! c2 Rapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
" f+ L, p0 m ] N0 ?8 ^$ j Owestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing; \- i; N' u" N( |: H
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into7 ~ x" o0 R: V# C
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development+ h2 I8 v! H( K& Y" o, D! C* L1 ]0 B( \
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
/ q# x$ I! t( Q% V( h- G: L# Q8 ]
. H) d6 a5 V1 s8 f0 s2 {9 n" u Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central( d" T# r! O. o4 V, z
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
1 ?) S: ~( l, F9 ~: Hneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
$ v: n! p) l/ S7 Y: g5 S4 Tinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
- A; D1 a# c' u; b6 Edowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
1 l" z4 T X* s& k' g3 M! D0 yprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out' w& N$ @) z: o' w7 @9 U0 e
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment4 V9 K0 x. h2 Y& G
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
" ]& H+ s4 Z+ F7 B# ~whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
' T) S2 D, Q4 Q* T* X6 ~Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high6 T" |' @; ~. V. H3 G {7 h
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
3 j6 \0 D* ]; Y/ k" ] Z% W) }2 _8 K$ E1 {8 D! K& @1 e* e% g
Calgary/Edmonton
b/ i7 y6 g* U4 o) v7 D' l6 D6 o: J. M! F0 Z
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
% z/ f4 v& e; H4 q. X% {boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
% N- W! \0 o3 e. W% c, g+ w/ Nbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,% S! a7 a( M+ l
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.: b2 `4 `; w# j( b8 ~( r
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
% @+ \) k, Q% m& H4 u* U, d% |5 IHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the; @3 V- H% l/ P, X$ l
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays1 _, _" g& o! u
strong, this market will continue to do well.
7 H: W6 c& K. D4 h: k* ]0 S' g8 _1 `# V4 `$ B' M6 X
Vancouver( A# n$ O% D4 d9 J, t X
9 I y" D( E4 J/ p2 D6 ~- Y* M Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
! Y# Z6 h6 n! i7 |; Lbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
: x: U) K7 @5 j% Preal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the" q* |" Y; j" D, m
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
6 J5 Y; t# u+ n5 `8 J4 Egrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy1 s8 r6 r* ]5 H' y5 Z: `* l/ _. G
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%6 H1 Z5 m: n# |4 _; {
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%. s- i- e: ]; x& b
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
' o; a- g4 ]0 h" _; x. t7 o* m) y& W9 Ygood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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) c0 _; n, v! g1 g Toronto$ E% K# p; P# v" l8 `% j1 J
' g* s+ I$ m/ J( u0 u, M6 I9 ^9 s( r; h Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
1 l' m1 k) m. h; Emanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
9 J& h- ~2 K" v. S: ^# {7 ?relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing6 l) g$ j' N Z Y: }5 u
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.& ^9 Z' {9 S) L% P( U- z
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
! \* H& s/ J2 r X, ]( }9 {feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and. X" `7 k- J3 k! S1 F
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.$ E3 L$ x: O1 H1 Z1 d. A$ z; w
+ S. z' a" n3 V0 d+ ^+ L
Montreal* k- `0 v, t# U: G; k
+ G, ]- D* \; A# }5 b* t- S4 L Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
* w4 D4 c6 p) G4 S& Z2 [growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up) q$ k* S/ f! ]) O8 z
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in0 F. ?/ c8 [0 B/ n
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
h) l' Z' u/ rsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors+ a7 r1 ~! m* Y( x9 H
higher as a "hold" recommendation." \, ^ g& A5 i$ H# }) S( P
( \+ F, u5 K# s. x3 H$ f The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
6 H, J& S6 M! @' o& O* Cinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy# M6 o$ j. g) |4 r9 q# h9 Z0 B) ]& s
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos( G7 z) s5 _/ ^; a
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
" E0 F4 U+ F1 @6 uoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
. | j, G6 U0 f" ?5 p% H0 {: \- jprices."
3 h1 a+ j* I2 B% U) C A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
4 h6 d& `5 [' u# y8 \' X8 jwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.3 \. W- {" X# T/ t7 y
4 @: v/ g5 a1 O E/ s6 a) U About PricewaterhouseCoopers
$ A' ~& p' u# K, M3 B, r/ m0 V5 A# \5 m
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
3 z( E, N3 e5 C; J1 c8 G3 Xtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
8 B. ?, H; i+ M T: l' hclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
6 c0 o4 g, y% Sacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
/ y$ Q6 n- C/ G& ^7 o- Efresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of! s& F# R) P7 i _* `! G
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its8 Y7 @& K( S; d" |
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
" n. W8 {5 f& e0 N: Mcountry. {9 ^0 B' R" e0 y' W, \ A' a
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
4 G' y3 F. ^1 M! Climited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the, L' _( y4 F3 X/ a6 J( `# t
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,# r/ X* w U7 A2 d+ e! R# \
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.2 x/ \% g# }; N: P4 L
+ b2 M; f( j5 h- e1 a! ?% {6 p
About the Urban Land Institute
: ]7 v: b2 E0 ~$ j- V
$ l4 `9 j/ ]/ J5 f! a, c The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and' p( ^. ]5 s, S- F R
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide' [# c7 x5 y1 M2 D2 G
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating/ J; M- W3 |! c7 L
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more1 W, S. s+ ^: k7 N- x/ z6 I1 j
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
: k9 y9 o+ ~; A2 L7 _disciplines., M( S& V* n# b3 G( f h$ Q
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada. ~5 n0 E3 z4 \( E5 r( _0 b
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District: P7 B, d5 g9 n! M3 q I7 d9 V
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is: [# x7 I4 y5 I4 U
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
6 a1 E( _- P5 S+ o1 |; Nhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,5 |6 T6 p' ?+ ?
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake& d! Q# V; s+ W( s/ {8 b2 L; j
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
- s* [) ^4 X: W- v' k" ]/ Y! A8 s; k+ LPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please& p H; x& R, ^4 U& W! Y& v
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on8 Y0 |( C5 u& y! L. K8 Z
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.8 f0 g- w9 e, A" {+ T
! L4 h5 A+ v1 Q& F9 f5 ^ D W0 h. O4 i% }1 j5 t* M# L
D8 c- a3 e+ ~5 P! q" \- s$ FFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,# S1 P/ r; a4 b
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com5 K. K& Q+ g1 w/ M* S) T/ N* A
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html; s$ t/ v) O1 T. k8 X
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