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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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6 l4 Z) _' O7 N/ T$ ~Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat * C2 v, o* v4 M$ _- @6 p5 d
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US9 Q9 e( `( n# O
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern+ T: I% a# m) o5 O/ D1 W
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging4 i$ X c# t" P8 u% `3 O1 [
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
1 E/ ]9 Q% [$ v& Yand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more4 u( ]8 v% O; N* d
upbeat.
! |; H8 }2 G% ^+ H Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded( ^7 n9 c6 Z& m- K
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
, T+ W% p9 i" o+ ]0 H! \interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real& Y6 D$ M' y. Q2 N
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
* u! V) ~" U4 t' K8 y# W! W: Krepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
5 j- [+ x2 A6 E& u3 p4 p# v' H) |$ HOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world# O/ Y: |, b. z8 a2 ^8 `% W( \6 i) f
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
, f% g$ i# y1 Z& o According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
( i* X7 [# B5 C( {" _6 o2 iReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment1 d) d* q4 J; t3 F+ [4 M" ?9 j4 v
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
1 y$ g& _7 C- m+ q: s Kbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record! R% h0 C0 Z8 N# e" b
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."+ a* `, y' g" V0 ]6 L
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the. Z. E# p1 B7 I! J6 g
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
. D( t2 E' G, wspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey& q) b; k+ i) f C B+ i
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US% ^- r$ m+ Z- y8 _1 ?
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be" t4 |3 Y# V' O# G) W
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
0 d2 Z8 \, f" S6 A, X( W# @ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian6 x u9 ~& h- B$ d$ ]
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
2 ]* q( {* k% I0 m$ ?commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
1 E c9 m. a3 t3 u' W8 e. odevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country2 w! u( F# U+ f( C) _7 L4 ?
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating) n: g( [& i( m0 \5 l, X# y
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
9 A: r/ d8 T* u+ Rresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to( T& X! O! c- @" V8 j8 G0 q1 O
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and9 B- r1 |' u/ A& A# U3 k
single-family housing looks overpriced.& a4 d e/ E9 q) ]) m1 o
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
' c6 p- r0 A! F( q" K% F. @( s `( jtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
8 z# S# G5 L2 F! v3 s. zmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push) C; C/ m' y& I- n- Z8 a7 t
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting Y4 p% d8 k, `
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,4 y8 B2 ^. p- j; j
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
0 K& y4 |' W6 d4 s: capartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary9 p3 L2 I( }" s* e# V
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
5 n* C/ G$ M/ @8 Pshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into& Q* U7 P7 {2 [) T E
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development3 s q% v: {, R3 \: |
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch& ^: d: S0 g. X9 ? h% w
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
1 ^' f' U5 z$ Wcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour" h/ }, v3 b; r; ]( Z( t0 \; b0 s3 W
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
1 B: U3 o- f& ~into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
- o- g' `$ t" S% H/ T# _* ldowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical9 W5 s) f d2 {* r' b
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out/ Q8 u4 A! L1 E. |9 Y
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
: {9 H! J# [( B4 J- }/ D5 dprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
( _8 {% _" W2 ?whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.. [2 Y2 A/ O% X2 c
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
' e: E& Y/ a* N: Yratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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8 q+ w1 a7 G. ~ Calgary/Edmonton% G8 ]' i# f- Z
2 }+ u. M+ J4 t& J5 ^7 b
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one6 e: m8 w$ |2 e! | F! b0 {# j
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a. y0 V4 h' k& [- T5 ?: A/ J- C; v
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
7 ~# w) K, Q# d1 O48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
o/ p% C2 C% K: ?" gFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale% F8 ]3 c0 l+ c! J! e- z! k
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the" F, i! B7 u3 ^- t3 p
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
# q: J0 x+ ~0 _: Mstrong, this market will continue to do well.; t& k8 m. k% P: |) ^4 |5 V h
% T, G( T) e5 `. e
Vancouver
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7 E$ t! b& p2 ^ d* q: Y4 y) z" e Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
. Q4 A7 G( _1 q: L- b9 j% `! mbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
1 ]7 d" S. u( O. } b$ k9 z7 creal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
3 R& U$ X k% k; Xmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a3 e5 X# S P) y2 S* y" ~3 S: i% f
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy+ s* {6 r# r: a1 r7 b- K& k
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
+ f/ z; T( I( |for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
- c$ e; A. k" Q/ Dfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
: {* A2 d$ K+ d+ r% t) V2 B( Fgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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% T# _& z5 @' q" C5 e, R1 w! r Toronto
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# K9 o; ]# s0 W! h6 ]! X Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and$ k7 ~6 I: A5 ?
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
. ?& }3 \& [$ w0 }6 Orelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing z% ^& `1 A" i- U4 l( Z, p
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
: a7 J9 d4 H. L; qThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square7 T. d6 H3 m6 Y7 Q! d# K' S
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and% e6 F; a0 w! B3 T! L
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.9 e7 P0 m! |, D& {5 N
- e5 q/ \3 e& \2 r+ p+ |
Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall" w+ }- }& j L* ^1 Y
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up8 F1 e( I7 G2 D* ~0 S% ]) E4 n! _
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in* d% ?' m5 g+ ?6 z
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
4 q2 h- k- Y+ |9 ysectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
# M/ A' |% C0 k5 v3 I1 Whigher as a "hold" recommendation. b& C' k$ K# K! h) ] f
1 H& ?* Q. j- w/ n3 R# q& v; A The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
) K8 ^% v6 K# F0 Z% @( \2 a7 S5 j% _include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy: b- C& o% V+ T
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
5 k7 N9 m+ B1 ?7 G1 wnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest' Y- y7 ], l9 r. p& Q
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current! [# x# p1 ]6 {* u. f
prices."
% v0 N& u# ? p A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at' _; S9 t% ]$ c; M3 ~# R+ S0 q5 j
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers4 d, H* M( ]$ Z5 ~5 K
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance," r$ g. y" h- g/ S1 s
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
: C* {5 x: Y# |, Y; v) ]) jclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries9 t7 _$ }3 Q" y) @$ I3 w9 T
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
7 b. x8 @& U. C( a+ c0 Nfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
% }. m% K' R; O0 V( p, yexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its9 g E8 c5 k& [1 B( C% x
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the. N4 Y+ y3 i% L, r7 }
country.
/ F# F1 n' x7 H: c& k2 U "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario. @2 j) e- K8 N9 Q3 w G& M
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
1 H4 n7 G0 j$ UPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
; e. @1 `* ~, T* }7 P& Keach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.3 m1 F, o z- g
+ X0 s# S+ L' n, ^! E* R* q2 {# A
About the Urban Land Institute$ l0 w) r0 S5 ?) \* U! l
- [) Q W1 c2 l# G: y3 C( J
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and! S& U5 m. B& I9 W) N
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide, k$ J6 S$ m! [
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating- [' M7 O! G' _, M
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
& ^, @8 N' X# m4 x' V; qthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development2 I* Y$ l, K5 ]* c! x, f9 `- a
disciplines.( b2 ]( p3 M6 i4 C2 S; i5 Z" J3 R+ Z
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.9 p- {/ w/ _0 h0 @+ x0 {! K
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District" E) B8 |7 y2 ~3 a8 P6 E# ^
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
3 V/ q2 L8 p3 Z: ^& P8 jnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be7 n- h! r* `; f! Z' u4 F
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,0 M: A% z( P0 A" ]7 h7 I4 X. Q, \
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake$ ^- ^, J. W2 T$ G* O8 s" e
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
, s: x' {" z4 w2 f3 J* W N; g, KPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please- F9 }2 g6 E6 f8 T
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on2 H+ u8 b' a3 d& i- k
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.) m o& r& q. B* B
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8 Q; X+ z- X$ |- H
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,% U5 Z$ I! b, f+ w
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
' a2 n: [2 I0 d; V' y: h ~/ v" w+ ihttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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