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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 2 o: u# ]" ^2 j/ ?( q+ ~
1 F0 o6 f2 t0 M+ e) s" \
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 7 w$ m" v3 Q, a7 ~0 {
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
% W' k5 Y; o. y5 I2 ~commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
/ C0 Q1 e1 @3 u; j! {% q9 q) Oas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
, M' D+ K1 L) F1 aTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
4 N4 |( a9 m2 t4 `and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more2 o3 N) e, z' h) C1 |/ u
upbeat.6 D6 P, v4 w6 N0 I7 M3 P( T5 [
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded" r" e5 l5 V( x& x
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
4 [6 [! R2 r$ L5 r% j5 D" Cinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
, v5 t% N1 h" S4 l; G, L) w: Restate experts, including investors, developers, property company9 e+ P4 Y) N/ y% V: t ^
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.! T a# H+ y; b7 P6 ~; e: p
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
3 G) r% ~' V s( A; dincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.+ E n5 Z6 W4 ^3 ?4 a
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
! f, X- X8 `1 U- bReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment9 O, V) ~6 t- D( ~7 N8 t6 ^6 I* A
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
) L7 ? v% Z5 m! m' ~. Ibe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record7 C& g |6 d$ r3 ^2 h7 w( D) R
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
, G2 W$ t2 I" e7 f% w According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
5 b4 b9 G; s$ u. ?- y; P/ K6 ?border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
9 `! e. b. d1 o% z' b' K: z- Uspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey' g& y0 a5 x. B2 Y' n
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
; N2 d3 Y" H% W1 r* j4 V/ E+ Dcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
& c& ?& e. S2 E: ?: p( \very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
% v$ e5 m6 X# ^4 s8 x The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
8 C( W9 n9 A2 O0 e2 erespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
$ U& R- z6 a* scommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
; N9 h" m# \# d3 a* Pdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country) L% F2 g7 w- B/ b5 t) h3 t9 ]
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
: B0 X9 d$ Z+ o( Q* s' S7 u* P; _$ kdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
2 i: n9 X0 g4 E5 Wresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to% k9 q5 K7 F+ Y6 X6 h
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
" c2 B4 t& ~ {: ^- P6 S; h8 q' lsingle-family housing looks overpriced. r& [" u, \* Q% Q, ~1 G2 W4 s% `, w7 r
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
" I% B2 k+ e6 vtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian" D0 ~, m, f. r s0 A6 a$ t9 h0 ?* i
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
! x# d( V2 p4 f* e* D/ ihigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting# _& |# j$ P/ n' V7 {7 k4 w3 j
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
% z; b9 f- H9 jand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
- n+ F! {/ |7 s0 oapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
/ |0 ^- ]* p# K4 l" V+ }& _western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
5 j8 ~! B2 o; e1 n% F+ b6 `% }shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into. n: `. E% [' g
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development2 ~, @+ g z: t- q# @7 o
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.7 d5 ]5 D6 l" Y' u7 m
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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. \+ u. R' w, s$ y6 q) M8 n The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central" Y8 E* i' I6 F! ^/ }; J
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
2 H3 \; H+ i2 [/ U% Oneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back3 k7 c) s7 x+ k: B# V
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
% Q( u- `0 q# xdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
5 @# g7 O" @# _+ ~projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out. D) t2 Y, U2 l6 w% c
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
% }& w& m' L3 r/ G6 h5 r% xprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
; U' w3 t3 w& B, f& kwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
8 n! j6 [% e; A% cToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
3 r/ j+ b- O1 d* Z1 V( _! i: @ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
% g6 _$ r; R4 m0 Q) ~$ o
* Z8 K* r# a# {- ], ?# l Calgary/Edmonton
# h7 ]# r+ u: F Z' j @) T3 @. P& ^' _9 n* I( V0 ~' j5 s# [4 E
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one" C, G* W; C# J& P
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a2 X0 Q% Y# k/ d, v/ U7 N7 R
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,2 ~3 f `, D I) o3 Y( Y* k, e
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.* Q8 r$ O3 C! |
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
2 r/ s& _6 O& f9 ]" m( {Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
7 e& m9 k* Z2 I" |9 fCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays: C% D: {% o4 ?5 m- F, k' x
strong, this market will continue to do well./ k6 r* k2 K& W; ^8 H" R
% l3 e4 ?( a8 y) V
Vancouver
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+ P5 i" I1 b0 O5 u1 B Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
8 c' o$ b. \) K# k$ h& l% Ibooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
9 F) x# x$ D1 ^5 ~2 @real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the' D l- W& T0 p: t3 g5 u" x
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
) `3 A* ~% J4 V( pgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
" i$ B" d, }3 \4 D2 srecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
$ E2 x( g& K1 d% m9 F6 }for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%; e3 c {2 t0 {: K
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
0 g$ a1 v& [3 g; o' T4 Wgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
6 x5 ]/ Z! ?2 H: I6 e! g, b) B- L$ a8 |1 j+ q
Toronto: O( z; Y" B+ z
" O; a2 B" H% w& G
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
" R1 s) i# X: S+ N3 Qmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is4 [" z6 A5 n6 E8 y4 |5 W
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing' o$ q# H* B, R/ n( m$ O4 v
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.( _5 P, W% R* l9 ?! d4 s
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square' {7 h% B$ X2 p
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
- I0 v- n8 l: J/ ?! vApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.+ I# b/ D j I) }0 L
( C h' e; X- P3 R" O Montreal
# F" _" t9 h/ f5 v% b) c4 h9 R p9 l3 O$ d6 @$ k
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
6 Y/ h/ Y' n/ F \growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up8 j$ h4 ?4 m+ q* b/ ?/ D# r
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
1 j' L9 u- Q$ }4 y3 dCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
: J* ^4 A3 R1 S- E l% ]7 W/ bsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors' X" K5 a! B% [# f" t' U& E9 z6 o; J
higher as a "hold" recommendation., I+ u: V1 b7 O K& o9 W" l
6 A7 F; ?7 y [0 j/ g) P$ Q
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years7 m: c# r- J$ }, ?7 m2 u
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
5 l/ t( ?/ F( W M1 P+ ]. C. r# T' gmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
9 @) I! l+ l5 F( e9 \. x4 wnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest5 _/ ? g g; g
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current7 B6 p9 k5 y5 q1 _* A( H
prices."+ y7 Q: @* o" p. F1 H8 N
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at6 P- s8 Y1 ?. I0 Y4 p0 B
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
* e7 `) e6 j, J! b l2 Y' V0 W6 b% K0 e0 R' S! E0 B* E
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance, v9 l, a7 Z& E- Y2 V" l2 l. z3 G
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
. ?. Y+ U: U! sclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries% v6 ~( D) w% r4 I" N+ t) E
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop. }/ l/ p8 _7 _
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of/ l; y j( g+ _8 c' v
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 U7 P+ ~6 \, E: `. _4 S
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
3 A1 i- h; F! A: a/ Dcountry.# W2 ?0 M9 q# }0 s% T) N
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario. g: n; i& _8 d4 J% s8 P! o
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the% E( v1 I. z/ b2 R
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,) y& r. b6 l# U, M+ [! p
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.4 B+ s& e8 Z* ?
8 [, l. T$ _, H
About the Urban Land Institute
6 R0 |2 I. f3 ?3 W7 g+ n# }. x7 I: o8 R. g6 _/ h/ l& ^& \5 F
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
0 Z3 K5 I! a" x- Bresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide$ U b% E' B, n8 D
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
& I9 V& B, E" p$ B5 uthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more, `$ V6 D$ |# W
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
7 j3 }. K, L8 `3 |$ E" s. `& ndisciplines.
1 A3 e; [: M/ F2 s7 a The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
: n9 _0 ^0 H2 ?) Q4 d! yWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District1 U1 [0 c) ~- l' `* [- u3 O$ }
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
, I A( N1 z$ W& a4 g# n4 ^6 G, onow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
9 \" X1 {+ U& Vhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,# O9 X* C9 J% h! p5 H2 c/ d' l x: d
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
' y$ x8 f& S5 v% t- a# cHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,- H2 n# t# [% Z* @
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
# }. d& K/ k5 Q& S. d' kcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on! ] D w: T# E3 {' m2 Z
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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|) l% i7 ?! j5 @) h, O: E+ P% o. `$ s# k# W! W# s: B
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,6 z+ q! F2 V! C7 b% t+ f7 f7 f
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com% |, W- ^0 J' g2 p+ D
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html# z; V% W2 G3 C- P$ J
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