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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 3 H, v. g/ I1 U3 o9 D# w
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat " E+ Z4 P( }* ]- I
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US2 I3 x7 c) P% ]% k* { ]
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
8 p; J+ M8 i% Z& [, c! J5 N0 w/ ~as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
; {: _ T7 n& `" \- O8 T( bTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC): f- P3 U9 H3 j
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
6 p8 M7 \' `/ _/ S6 P; |upbeat.8 v( F* y9 y& r; a' ?' J% L: l! k9 B
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded3 e5 z' i! N! e, }; H6 k" W7 N" U
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
0 e% [4 u5 Q+ `& t9 k' A: Ginterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real0 p0 e! P3 w! p# ]" A
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company& w7 b {. B2 H% o5 s. [
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
. e: }5 n7 B: M" rOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world' |, v# K2 s) o. a: X( x
including Asia Pacific and Europe.6 ~* `/ V4 R) J7 ?
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
0 W. V! r7 `1 A% r* M+ wReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
+ ^5 P8 ^/ ^' n6 b5 i% _1 Yenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to8 ]! M3 `" |: ]. ~4 e5 h/ W
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
% \( U( F; k/ Q. }% [& O5 @highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
+ G5 q3 n+ b" ] M! o According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
( G: T, z. X; M Y! u/ }border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game6 w2 k: d! b; V$ ?
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
7 {+ `' M: o6 ]- h4 h L& Jremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US% }% \) j1 m8 Z6 Y- Y
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
" d& o8 `0 x' ]0 i9 ~7 zvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
4 I( b) ^" g8 m The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
1 M5 t# n. |4 f* {+ \# O% nrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
/ y+ I" M' _5 Y. P2 Gcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
6 e: Y( `* v2 B% } mdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
+ L! V! D/ C0 c/ y8 vespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating1 h: u1 D1 ^! X5 {; f
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The3 Q. ]0 V7 ]! A1 x; M, ~
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
3 P }' z6 n. o; N9 A) \' f. |take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
4 T% Y) `( }: q0 z3 Ksingle-family housing looks overpriced.7 z8 H3 O; Z& A$ u
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with3 j$ Q3 u& g+ M& G1 U6 [
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian: e* Y" ?5 [6 O1 Z1 x
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push* K- ^6 y" D" J& L- B/ u, K$ R" I0 O
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting9 j! h' F2 {: f9 U8 u8 t
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
8 c6 g( m1 p8 b, `1 W% p% m& }and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
2 b/ {3 D* v' x1 W$ i% v* L' lapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
" y/ j9 t" l) w" h9 t7 \/ o7 ywestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing$ X% I; a6 D( a2 m
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into+ j' F6 R( ?' h% i; m
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development9 b% C( E& B9 g- d" n, X$ m
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch! J, T" f8 G1 y; i9 _7 s
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central" ?6 v7 m8 ?' o9 x0 X- @4 F
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour; Q$ t2 C( d/ ~, e' A6 |
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back* I( B; u+ h& O) X" ]+ F4 ?
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in" c* L, B& |; S. n3 i
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
/ o% s/ K/ v: ?' o2 I H+ bprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
1 l$ G) i# q. O2 v8 Fwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
$ a# T/ M4 }+ Y" rprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
8 {+ K* o+ N% M( i. Pwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
, W* B$ ?4 L6 Y eToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high5 n0 [: ]2 N" G% }
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton0 b7 _$ e# P+ A2 k: E# f" |
' s1 D5 e/ |8 F1 b8 Q7 l Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
/ J/ n& b+ W6 x# I8 C* Cboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
; X/ [% d- _' q/ E+ Ybuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
1 G9 r. _" E$ f0 V: T W48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.! I D$ j2 d$ h) y) R! L
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale: u" ~/ G. Y, l [
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the$ A# ?: q' F$ @3 r3 x8 S. G5 [) h2 z
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays7 S) i8 g- x) Y) m1 ?% {+ M
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver* E6 K/ U* a3 ~) E: r
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is! k0 i. Z6 R9 ^1 B/ e2 d! i2 T. Q
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous m1 `* x+ d7 h- {, N
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the& m5 \8 N$ q' ?
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a" ^ h" k* U! i4 \ D/ W8 }
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
5 B: T% ]$ F" X; f2 g* j0 H" ^recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
J _ J" R+ \" [$ Mfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
! |2 D2 W5 Y+ T) Ffor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
r( K- N3 f0 n4 X3 Mgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.. [' ?( X# ]8 n- h" V' M% m! u5 q
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Toronto8 A# b* w' K( b) ]. }/ ]/ I3 e q
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
& \8 {3 G3 f' u. A7 @1 g4 Zmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is6 D6 w) g- P3 ]) B$ U" Z# |
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
+ H: p, A9 ?; L% V" dindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
# _/ m8 c d5 N$ EThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square" k1 z; g( D3 P f F" L5 N# u/ e9 K
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
) D* ]4 \4 p' z5 ~# TApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
: l4 w8 v# t+ y! {
) v3 s! k; o9 c) h Montreal
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2 ?' x- n6 T9 x Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
- y- m& ?1 m' j! u6 N) pgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
$ f; M9 `- H @: t: oshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in$ V- g! W" j/ m: a+ X+ W, }
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
1 l: h5 H: Y) a7 D0 Isectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
2 E8 `& I. t: ` `" whigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years% }- [, {; v1 l3 _+ n8 g
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
. g% m T A( R1 V+ n8 K) E- xmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos2 H2 B U5 A4 K5 `7 G5 Z/ T
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest) w ]9 C, U* @0 s
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
5 |) C$ R8 l& y! [9 @prices."
+ M: J( e% L5 l2 @ A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at& X* ]" l0 Z c7 i3 D. l
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
% { s% p+ s0 Q+ `" ^: R
, ?5 w% t) f; I( W About PricewaterhouseCoopers4 g3 x: \" x/ G- h, e/ \# D- x
& t) @6 ]9 X( o. l: }
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
5 R; K' A$ O# r( S- B) xtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
) o' i$ j1 S, P2 p$ sclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
1 R" _6 b) G! f$ k, Dacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop# W7 _3 l0 p+ Y* D: F! ]* i
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of' z7 U$ |5 m6 u
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
3 t7 x3 l4 y- l) u$ F* Brelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
, E% u/ G1 r9 I/ i' O# Pcountry.4 H/ i( c3 P0 P* P
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario! G9 o5 T$ }+ @ ?
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the8 L! a% p# |6 v$ C4 \1 n: L( x
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,- V7 p2 u+ q- v
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.# X/ z# }6 m( F8 P( W
) |4 A% u% y, F1 O+ E
About the Urban Land Institute
2 `4 B4 u1 `8 c3 w! B2 W5 A+ @
; ?7 l' O% H9 a3 B. X4 p& u1 o The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
2 q! n3 M/ G& o; ~4 n: zresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide) Z/ e8 n1 e; P! C3 P2 T- L
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
* `2 g: w* P" f" z# N9 K# L9 othriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
! ^; u5 F/ \# vthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
1 `6 @0 @: ~9 K( a9 w. g$ Kdisciplines.; q \( R9 T( a
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.9 o3 ]2 Z7 a4 n$ ?
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
' f' z4 j- a5 k7 k+ O6 S( n3 l# KCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
( P7 {, e) f& \, v2 p: _7 U& \5 tnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be; _) i5 \& n% d- j9 c
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
( \9 x, y, w6 b6 |2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
, Z* b/ S) t O4 {Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,) v- ], y0 K* c/ P: y5 n* g
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please1 K* }) m+ E. V& K
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
% U/ t+ _ A' U! Xthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.9 x! Q/ ~2 r! W$ Y9 J3 G
) J* v0 }3 m) L; ]- v6 V
5 ~" P/ T: y) g5 P u' }2 X( o% [* F+ F# L/ [3 w6 o
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,6 N0 J6 w- ]0 C% O6 T
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com, G& R$ z' C; D. r
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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