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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 1 n* w+ {3 A2 o( s1 M
/ Z% ^* B8 R, |" n+ s% [1 IDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
# E) x2 C- q0 T1 z$ \' C TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US* {3 o E6 n; @9 ]% k+ y
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
5 D% `4 v5 K* @% n! Oas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
7 l. s8 ]& s% k3 oTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
& m: w' i' Q& h; o/ ` V0 kand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more( P+ G) y1 {/ G* k3 W) T0 V; J5 R
upbeat.3 i" i5 n% l/ b
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
( N9 s0 t0 {7 U: C6 Qannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects2 P; S$ a" ?2 A, F5 o
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
! [+ Q- I/ w) k6 lestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
D1 m9 O6 o4 y/ J1 ~3 krepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
# H9 p V5 W4 y UOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
* l1 L5 s3 p9 `$ H x, Lincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
' r6 O( ^) I6 g6 V2 l% j According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian* n1 } W* z7 T$ h) z9 O, V ]
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
& G3 `9 v; L9 Y, |environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
/ S) {' y: X1 ?2 Q2 p. hbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
3 @- P# h9 ^6 \1 W2 \- Y% phighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
4 F& A0 f. J: ?1 R0 B& E According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
7 B8 |0 b' T4 Tborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
& t; k1 F$ L) M) e* ospeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
- \" y' U, `0 L* h p" f5 g- Hremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
! t9 E" M5 \/ ]0 Tcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be; \, q$ f! S4 q! I; @& K9 c. u
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.$ x( d- w; A8 h5 c
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian" M7 D: C+ m m: e
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by( P5 s# ^+ b& K1 e
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land" Q: L) q6 R- o% A- W( Z9 \
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
7 i* k4 S0 [8 Y" V( ]2 g0 I6 `especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating/ d& {& n! S/ c( ~( T" F+ \# g0 E
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
8 _ E! g: M/ q2 W( }5 u0 Q$ t2 cresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
, v. b6 F9 J2 ~ L7 W; y+ Gtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and; r" p' L+ S! m) U: x
single-family housing looks overpriced.
* n- E, ~% W5 ?2 H: N. ` Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
2 v- M+ r' A1 otenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian+ w% D5 i- P; P, n* f* N
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push6 `2 M* ^4 O9 F- z, o3 J
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting1 U1 R9 |5 v6 F$ i& m* u) p
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
* k, r: `. p4 _) d" x% L' U Tand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental% p1 l1 F, F: M& w
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary* ~9 z. c/ G0 X
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing* _$ G% a; s, _1 h/ t
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
. _- O/ x! l2 u; z9 athe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development/ H# F( d6 E a* x
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
$ E5 F8 {0 z I, c# J
6 ^* i* W: ? m2 x- g; d! Q Canadian Markets to Watch8 S: G' z' u8 a/ [7 q0 L
+ g( Z0 X2 d l5 ?# X The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central0 I1 i3 d2 m$ h4 H3 o
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
1 L1 _5 {, U3 w$ n9 O- t( [; Tneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
) a1 Q1 A2 ]7 v) Z ginto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
( E$ I" K5 @; V( K7 a7 V2 \downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical9 W6 L; x+ {& t3 k; F6 Y
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
& t1 X$ z% }: n( }* Vwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment' ~% m: k) q; X9 ?3 ~" o. |7 Z
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
1 e" R( d; {4 f3 T" y5 y. g! s, {whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
/ C( S: u+ I, F R" x% \Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
0 e" h L, W0 ?; U Pratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.- G6 U# r1 ~# o$ h) c0 N
2 _! Y, @7 d1 s" p4 s! R a Calgary/Edmonton
! {6 t% o4 ` `0 a: w- s% {9 k
8 y7 O. |& c( C. z2 q3 y1 c- L Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one, l0 D7 Y& C1 i- f, | D* f' J
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
4 k* f/ K" M- b& t m) C# Tbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
: Q5 q2 I/ J# |8 k4 {# v48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
7 X% b% @/ r; }4 q8 UFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
" a" A7 `$ H. r. kHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
$ u9 j* H6 D4 g! m- e1 H. }4 UCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
" Y6 Q: N- e1 \) h0 q" Mstrong, this market will continue to do well./ v- n) ?7 H2 {$ F
1 k4 _- I6 f3 b$ I; U
Vancouver
( M( C1 G2 M+ Z) @6 i
9 m% m& }0 X6 T: Z2 W( n! f1 @ Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
_- \( \( j0 b8 [9 i" pbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
" v3 L" t; ?- h4 r& R6 nreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the. j6 f- }, e# }
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
7 b9 {) U/ U; R7 `growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy4 w$ o1 w( R. }/ A2 u: x$ M& u+ ~
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%: j+ }7 v) p. a& b! A$ p* w
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
2 W+ L9 C8 M3 {) qfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very. J$ A" n+ P( j2 Q3 O
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.. q. `- `0 O! E) v. v
* ^* M$ y4 p) D! c! I3 F Toronto
8 L* [" ^& M9 @; f
; \6 @9 a$ C& U. p3 M Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and9 \. T2 ^4 W6 {6 d$ j( ?; g
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is, R. j7 A# a; k5 R0 ?
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
9 Z7 f1 q: F& Gindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.: h0 T" M/ g. L9 D' {
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
c$ R( A. x2 ^1 F$ k2 bfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and" j% o! V0 R" E" ~8 g0 p1 c I
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.0 \/ u8 Y9 v ]0 n" E$ o
* |2 w$ {2 e# N0 t Montreal
5 ?- h- u; F5 D8 Z) }1 k5 i; {: s$ U5 C
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
, E& s" z Z5 T" r/ G- q( t! Agrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
) |) p1 @0 s2 L! E- P. c1 k. Cshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in& `: u m* N" H" h
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
* E0 M) ~$ _4 C$ {3 U7 s) Osectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
) z# \, y* W2 w7 z c0 Whigher as a "hold" recommendation., h1 T# I5 {0 l1 G
$ P' a% }# O) | The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
0 R) e0 S+ T+ f' Xinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
3 n5 q9 `, V [( y6 ymarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
0 j" A" ^4 ^0 h* w: W' M" ynear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest5 k) l8 e; U- O( A/ D# R* o# v" p
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current: y2 L6 s- ^6 E
prices.") K, r/ ]. O0 E; s# v& L6 ?1 g
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
# g9 \# d7 d! o0 D3 T4 T5 O. R3 Twww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.$ B2 K, u3 j1 p4 }
: V2 }. ^" k; K4 }+ s About PricewaterhouseCoopers) P H) v) n, [ [ P
+ h9 x, f6 H$ z8 R
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,! c; C* X% N" X' p
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
/ [ h$ L1 S- T# j' w) h. Dclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
L6 [/ Y1 t, {- z. a# t" |across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
# e) i" t4 a& V4 [9 Pfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of+ {( e: ?! n2 M3 s+ C- k8 V
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 E' p" A% E5 ^8 z- }" m
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
3 M ?) Y: Q3 n' g7 kcountry.
9 G, m8 p r9 e' Z1 I) S "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
. J. |/ g# [$ |limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
+ Q- Y- R5 Q* tPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
# g& w2 Y+ i; N8 C' H5 ]+ H& \each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.5 I( L9 B% c4 u
Q6 j4 k: q( J* f& E
About the Urban Land Institute5 @$ m4 z/ h6 F C" ]
' U [; P* J6 z4 e% ] The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
+ u3 a; ~6 |# w! a0 P/ xresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
- |8 o e$ A: G4 h- z$ y' @ h! }0 Pleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating6 N+ _2 G2 }6 r, o* b
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
7 F- {# t! D; C/ v0 @3 Gthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
& G) w, A1 T& _; @# x, f. Sdisciplines.
% ]$ V! n7 _; T# Z; K% V/ i- l The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
% x! l0 y6 c1 s9 g" b. q! y3 {With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
" {$ D9 _5 |9 ^# \$ `/ ]* zCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is6 c" I1 J% M, d* E8 C; n: O
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
! n! }& y/ _7 Ehosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
' D( A& u8 u. H2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake2 r. G$ A; f7 j3 R- x; M% {6 |
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
$ `9 G$ {6 {% H6 [3 M+ s. wPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please4 d9 ?* N1 Q- m" n
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on: H8 y$ X# P; f% W
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.' L9 n! u3 P: l/ M4 w
3 n4 }1 r, m& }/ p" }2 G1 Z
9 M* S& p, U0 a4 L1 p/ i [
! t# T; H9 V) ?. i/ TFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
3 a1 h+ Q# B9 v& N- K4 W" j(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
9 j& L6 M9 h7 B/ thttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html9 a7 b$ _# Z; D1 } [( r5 m1 w
' ?3 b/ d3 J6 B[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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