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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat ; _' p7 O2 M( E; @+ W2 a
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US% U: `0 ?6 ~' r
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
9 {: l9 c6 ?1 p- q. o' y' Las the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging2 f/ G& E0 Q. G: O! n' d2 F" X; }
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)/ n+ G ^3 Y6 I% E# K
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more$ {. N; }3 d3 Q& i
upbeat.: G, U/ j/ s: r% }5 U
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
+ _ _" `1 }" Oannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
3 E$ i9 Z; b# @; n' yinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
# i$ j; y2 ]/ Qestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
* |8 i9 Y/ B( D; r, j: c6 Hrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.% N9 d, n/ N* N. m
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
' `- ?+ F) u) K& U; a7 M( ^5 Bincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.( `7 E" j5 I' y# s" M. S: r
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
$ @# @; H. U X& }) Z T% `Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment! }- I3 @5 K6 c/ m' b4 |
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
( w9 W1 t+ t. x4 f, D1 ^/ Jbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record& s: L/ d* _* A; k
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."0 A& `! v$ F n; R$ B4 | v
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the. b8 z" b# R# M% k. u
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game1 O% o+ f" f3 f: h0 R. V( s
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey+ |/ L( o* P+ A6 {" r5 E' p
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
( O0 a3 X( R0 m! v% A1 \0 ecorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
# I: o0 @( S$ v, cvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
" q, @1 ^) w% H: N The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
7 Y0 d7 a P, w$ J P: a1 w4 a% @respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
- b+ v7 U, x/ vcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land3 f: N8 N0 W" e* m/ x1 Q% e
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
9 C! C, I1 H" d* g* g0 sespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating8 g8 X) q% w: q4 Q9 Q
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
5 ~* A# c( W9 \residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
% P% `- D! d" G5 C, _& B& x$ htake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
( H9 G& N/ ]( t" }4 fsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
0 Z: A& W3 ]3 \+ i. D/ f% k9 C5 J& ` Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
- r1 }9 S' K5 y2 m' d( n6 ~9 btenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
2 M/ k2 y: B. K* ~: }metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
& W8 _7 p" y& E9 {& b' C, Chigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting6 j* ], |8 T& C' l- q0 g; T* x. e
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,$ ^! ?! V: b) `0 y; ?) x
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental0 N! G$ k L# g1 M$ F
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
: j$ n+ }$ B# H+ a3 S2 _western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
9 x! g) I/ ~4 S$ E, h9 T# sshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into8 [4 g3 u4 U, E+ V; X" m
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
# }' G) L; x( ]( L' l: B5 ^5 ^7 oin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity., ]0 x8 g8 l8 {# f1 X) u I5 H
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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6 X1 c/ R6 e# i9 Z8 F6 F7 A The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
) ^* O6 t' o% f2 ]) u5 W' mcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
' D8 J! W$ A8 o. uneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
8 p1 Q0 ^% z! d+ b/ I: sinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in; Y7 {) X( z8 m3 z+ @8 i% L
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
) _' Q. Y3 ]0 N Xprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out5 N: z( M5 K8 q/ m
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
2 _: r1 z @1 o: D1 v* y5 i: Z& Uprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain8 t2 }5 o6 ~8 F/ a5 h( k- N+ x5 V
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.* _2 U/ x: V% O. N: p+ N9 v: ]
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high5 F w- e. ?1 S0 W7 N
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
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% i) b7 S9 z0 `- H Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one) E: W0 o$ `- k
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
/ {* j% n8 s% l( l% }# z& }) qbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
$ q% w7 q3 w/ }* e! n48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
+ @/ S$ A$ O. J" v1 } s1 B3 T! WFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
5 a! m, N0 l. f7 c7 Y9 q+ b$ L& MHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
+ m4 U/ ]/ E4 s3 [: xCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
, Z7 N( R8 [' j: l/ g! _strong, this market will continue to do well.( @. O( l3 v, l" X
+ z4 H- v: Q. g! _
Vancouver$ Y+ m% L0 u' b; w& J3 u. @
! ^* p: K9 q! W1 ? Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
; @* ?% T% Y8 ?# k, H1 Xbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
* l7 }$ u3 b% E ]% U3 s4 y5 d- Mreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
& i7 f$ S8 g6 d$ h0 p' l8 |market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a- ]' l/ T; k0 X( Q$ `- ^
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
% s+ u% t9 r9 ^recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
1 y7 L) w* R6 e- s. wfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
6 M( `5 x4 f+ l- i+ Z8 ]7 X* ]for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
9 k0 @! @" R0 `5 l8 mgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.* k, @1 f& t" I) Q& |
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Toronto# A+ f. {& U! s' `& s9 V
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
1 s4 S f0 ]4 i( { tmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
' B) S/ }- X* ?; } grelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing; A# f9 t( a5 _8 s, K, Q: z" o
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
7 j0 m/ k% i" H+ o+ n+ R. gThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square$ o$ ^" F' i, k$ `9 }/ f
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and- l# b4 n6 s4 b
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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$ y7 l7 n: e; A* A6 G1 T Montreal
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' G- ~$ x7 H0 J0 [' W% m Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
" x& D2 G) u- u4 b! w( y) l" @9 Ugrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
6 l& p0 z7 e- _shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
5 S9 @6 a0 u. j k! G0 ^Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate6 z) f* S5 O1 S% h
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors8 f0 j% d; I" A
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
0 u& W5 ?: z, Z, ^8 g% t4 f5 tinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy2 W, X. f) o. w8 q# g0 c% ~3 R! {
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
; W5 o L& M7 }- ` C8 x' f0 anear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
; @ v! z8 f* Zoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current# L4 x- f {2 W, c9 V6 t* \8 e% X1 N
prices."! C5 X) B. k8 F8 Q9 T2 Q
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
9 s+ T' b. J/ Swww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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( H( K4 K4 d, t% g9 ` About PricewaterhouseCoopers$ U' ^" R1 A- p, ?/ Q' y6 }
$ R, ^7 ^5 ?2 b9 x# n& A1 A. T( U' P PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,+ E9 Y% Q! T) l, J4 v
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its! |$ M) c) x, j2 \8 D5 H
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries) u8 ]) A0 u$ {4 {' W5 \
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop3 k3 e4 `) c. j
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
8 ]" V9 b# n" ?excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its" F+ X! g7 S2 ~( k9 L q4 V. l/ o
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
4 F( e* v7 a/ v T8 h8 ]" l" ncountry.
) i4 d2 ~" x1 w( y( p" W$ g5 ?! g "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
! P; P" J* j2 T$ Y+ k+ V6 Zlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the" |- m- Q; Y: y9 @0 j* }" O
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,: } y0 g/ q1 L4 W' T0 w0 W
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.! O6 k3 \7 ^% w) I
$ c" z6 m, P3 O
About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and- r6 |0 y9 s1 q' L- c
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide2 \& W% s& f2 W+ u% q! `" l4 q
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating0 T( |) i8 W$ r! o0 _. a
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
7 `( P; e6 H" d% c0 tthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
8 F- a. H3 g; Y8 zdisciplines.) I# x* |8 L: b* R% v8 B
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
$ K$ Z% ~4 R' T" ~5 ~With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District1 z9 |& U t, x
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
5 e2 W! a4 G% y& R( vnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be( k6 N' @* [% E7 S4 c
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,( [5 D: y2 o2 t$ h# H4 f
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake. `# p7 |" x- B' U& Q5 \1 i) I
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,0 q* b* x; o3 A& U. h5 Q* D
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please) E! n# H, i1 G: d" H
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
9 u# c( o$ l7 `the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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$ i' \! }4 v8 [8 p/ ~) e9 ~% y5 H9 Q! {( I) P `; S. O
0 c9 \8 n$ ?1 v% q4 y1 aFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
, ?. |- {8 Q" e7 j(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
2 d9 d$ `/ o% S; J% b/ c+ Nhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html/ C |+ d' f$ M! l) j# t" m* `
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