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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 7 O0 E$ s% P0 w: } }
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US* L1 ?. `0 c) p. r2 C! p) h' Y
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern, g+ D% p, [% X* \. K3 P( w F$ @
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging+ {2 d! r/ s$ D9 g& P0 v5 W: ^
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
; q' M, X! M7 N$ Yand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more( {; D$ S W c" F [6 u
upbeat.7 n% L' j7 ~: D& E2 Q1 g* v
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded; {, C+ \( j6 Q+ D! G$ p
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects* c, k* @5 ^- d+ ^! C, O
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real4 ^0 r w+ z3 K- a" x* e, F" D
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
2 I0 C2 R" Q3 S1 n* Z- r" Q6 ^representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.! Q; U$ [+ h4 z7 h' k5 X
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
. B% `( ?; ^! ?including Asia Pacific and Europe.7 A* I# e2 w( L. W3 r2 B$ x2 o
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
2 y- P0 C! p1 v9 _0 a( ^5 D/ W. FReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment: ^" V' O7 `: E
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to0 `& c0 n" O' G# a) k0 B2 b
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record* p( k2 E3 c5 {& o& V
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."" A% k8 V5 Z2 j0 p* R
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the1 K, h* P6 U; h+ ?5 m
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
) f9 N/ r6 P8 N8 P, f) d2 rspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey! l5 Y/ g$ k+ |% R- {2 h8 a
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US |) I4 X* D2 M" d, T8 u
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
# W6 X- a, B$ Q5 S% `very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
9 u9 C1 N- u% B8 v The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian! b# y% d2 D5 [! o! s' b
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
7 X' X8 i( `: O1 R2 y- J8 jcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
5 r3 ]: V+ C( b6 F" ~! _development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country2 M6 V0 b3 h6 [8 x9 ?$ N
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating4 f6 K9 a/ O$ d+ N8 M4 N2 ^0 A
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
0 I& X4 q& b* O0 t/ W* Rresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to# x S& D& }$ `0 e3 d' G0 b+ ^
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and5 }/ z7 Y; E# t2 _5 d
single-family housing looks overpriced." [! {6 w% f" H
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
6 w' k! m! {7 r8 W5 L# ~$ d; \8 gtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian1 Z$ |% E1 f6 }( V
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push! B) o4 ]9 V: w8 f
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting) N [0 s. f) a# W# y6 D% v
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,5 } o: q y) s: X
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental' l1 d! J, |# w9 H5 B1 X% k4 c
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary( K. D+ A2 P: X8 u6 z2 G
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
; S1 {7 z& Y* L: W* oshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into0 D* p% m4 _$ Y) E! z) y0 n* a& C
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
! t* ^$ D v7 ^1 K5 nin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.2 [4 w3 M5 `; i3 u) w" {* ~1 ^
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central# ?' H' j+ U' M% h) E3 r; E
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour6 ?# }# D3 {! [+ P
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
, c$ e" V. J( Vinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
/ Z* ?& T. j8 E. [# j8 Odowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
& V. T# S: L% ~/ f6 n8 r3 ~8 G3 \projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out' z2 \* x7 C7 m. [6 I! E
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
9 i/ W. T3 x# X3 n" f% B vprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain2 a, _5 b+ A- B' \6 K) Z
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
5 T: S) H) F9 D: s1 v) w- DToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high' w; ?2 y4 J8 E; l
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.5 ~; a8 v1 K# v6 X9 o
/ T7 V% c" l- c% V Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one) m( ^) I/ o) u6 }; U( `2 J
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a+ _2 C4 _( U" Q% ~* u2 o* ^, {
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,' y' x. ~" L$ C5 ~$ u& K
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
* f. C, c3 o2 [: Z2 p& }Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale: w! P4 s9 b3 ^+ _' }% z1 q$ p8 ~5 j
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the* E2 u, z7 Y0 A" w2 X
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays4 ^7 a: U7 W7 J
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver: ?+ r/ n) e) v+ e( x# r2 A
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
' G4 V; F' x. l# l5 Z, Xbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous$ }$ c: \4 p% F+ f% E" p( e: z" ~
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
9 p# Y9 X& k$ @6 T# C. O; [market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a8 T$ Z$ D3 H. V) V2 g% y
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy" P; G: g. L8 x" l$ J( }9 X; X9 |
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
$ `/ @) W2 m4 @* R, L. T) w4 _2 mfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%2 {2 k+ A/ O$ i+ k! F
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very; J, x- d' m3 p) V- ^ }
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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. |" W6 |' f9 ]8 `, |( _; b9 p Toronto7 J c- p. u" n) l( T, w9 m2 d
, Z3 p: g R. c& e& G Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
- V/ z8 B+ g r: ~# Q, ~manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is/ J \: a5 g" L3 h9 p7 E
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing) r* u. }" P- w! [! B7 @
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
0 L. M ?5 d# \2 ~Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
- M( R. Q4 y/ f* z" }1 ffeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and% a6 Y! Q+ _$ e2 P4 h' r* N
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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# `8 J$ k B4 ^: M8 D Montreal, g! d* @! L" ^
5 J# W2 y1 V1 Q$ E! ^% p" b Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
3 q9 h+ H) y/ zgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up; \% c! W+ `7 Y! S. R
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
9 j B% j$ s: @( ^ _4 \ gCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
: Y3 m& A9 H5 L1 c: F5 lsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors/ B+ Y4 }4 X% b0 K) Q( e" x. W
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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( {$ s' p9 q/ I+ l$ q9 V9 I% g1 _ The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years. C4 ?2 M% i0 t; R
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy4 y" \/ U+ b% s8 k5 h3 d
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
" ^8 e. r& c7 S+ d' t' V9 z. vnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
0 ~0 B7 J9 ^* m$ n6 Moverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
& f+ R+ S( E' @4 x/ ^prices.", k5 l0 W" G, h. ~: \
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
6 A. @- z& k! m8 P4 |www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.9 `# X& }& f( m& I; s
7 b4 j. A( Q7 [4 Q2 N! S About PricewaterhouseCoopers7 P4 F: W0 \2 f( y1 {4 `" a
/ b. t, `2 U# G" u; C4 D- ?
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
1 }8 J3 a! C4 K( C$ H Z' dtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
( b' P, Q7 T" P. Bclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
% o* {- o. ?* e3 U% ?4 bacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop4 G7 _0 N3 b$ p y
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
G5 T; K8 r+ [% d" Q( q/ oexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 y( B9 E* V2 b: u% Q) M
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the5 Q& o9 ]" }1 O/ s; A1 b2 X D U
country.8 ?# U& B5 l/ K4 ]
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
. t- ?7 u- S2 w" d/ |limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the& B6 \# V) k( a; I/ d' F0 H6 U9 F
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,. l+ I: ~, N3 X/ k# s/ ?+ M9 |
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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8 H1 b3 G z* T About the Urban Land Institute
8 O2 L& `* e B& w4 c) n( d% V8 V2 _
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
2 v! p% ^8 }. v" f4 Qresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
7 K+ ?( i( D/ g& Fleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
1 q6 T6 b7 v3 }+ a; tthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
8 E( T* M8 p0 a+ E! sthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
/ P- i! d3 y& a3 W" Qdisciplines.
8 t* m3 J0 p5 p: H* |1 S9 s! `( o The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
4 x, t; e7 s! t, xWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
( p( C+ h5 L* B: QCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
2 E( w1 Y. f, w2 n) ]" Anow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
9 g l* Y* q G$ w. b/ Uhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,$ h# E" X$ N8 N
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
) v7 y4 t+ [5 L* b* g" RHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
5 n3 f6 @7 a! r/ u; U" BPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please- I# _% v' h% {" }
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on8 n! \ v$ O( y5 q; y
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,; K: B! L) t3 h& W6 c# D4 ^
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
4 D$ j* ~2 ?' Y9 h2 s% Xhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html- f4 N' }( }( l1 o* e
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