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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 4 |, b5 S g8 B
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
* o% G2 h2 A# t- g+ f8 ?2 m. l; rcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern7 u& r: `* G! y" P5 R
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
; p( D8 ^- U7 C3 X6 W( K7 _Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)& ]# e3 |% A4 t) F: Q
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more9 b }* z, Z I7 o
upbeat.
2 ^* M( I3 s4 [ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded" K6 A; A( T4 S: N( [
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
' H, H3 l7 U5 Uinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
* z! d5 T1 V5 x( }* W! restate experts, including investors, developers, property company
5 p, o5 j9 m, Y) c+ krepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.9 `0 k" L* s5 d4 P) ~- }& s5 Q
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world* @/ C% G, U5 g8 \
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
1 Q6 Z% ~+ ~% t& B3 ^2 k& j+ G According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian! f* Y2 h: b" p% c& H
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment q1 Z" a- r: r3 c! F8 T6 {5 H
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
& E; T/ ?9 o7 o8 {be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
3 h( g n' n, r& \" p4 q, n$ Jhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
4 U/ o, O$ [: G. k According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the5 b( [: L% ]$ f# L4 K# {! k
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game6 g6 A* z. A- A( l
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey2 `9 t: ~3 j, } }) O" }9 W, X
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
0 E+ l- {9 v! i- `- Acorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
* }& K+ H, \* s3 dvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
& C$ y5 t8 z5 e The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
; b8 `$ ]- @# ^' [respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
4 b! P0 Q# R3 acommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
' P+ M3 I4 S6 z' g6 G. ~development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country# i4 Y6 A4 O3 C, S1 X
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating$ ^& q+ l# `; v/ e& c2 }: p
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
9 R1 f) }9 m# |& B: Y+ [( u; R( E w0 lresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to3 B6 u2 C7 L( I
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and8 M& j; z5 Q3 v
single-family housing looks overpriced.
- d1 l' Z3 g" b' c Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with1 { @+ x6 G6 l- p {3 _9 e
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian/ o$ h& N4 l* k) _6 ~
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
1 W" g+ X" s, d& Khigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting& a! ^- R( b5 P+ X0 h
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
: |6 j4 p5 x. x" E- gand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
* _6 k7 g6 W; A1 ?5 m& S! T! F' \: \apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
% ~2 N0 r- o X$ c; W/ mwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing( `8 l9 W) g# s$ K
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into/ U' f! {- I+ C' c z
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development) ^5 k! R v, @1 W% M
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central" R( r' g) Y! A% M4 y4 B
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
' B) G8 W# ~- T, uneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
0 E. w$ R/ { i9 u/ ginto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in/ |& f t0 j, \4 @
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical$ A6 D# s5 z& p6 Y. N! |; J9 s
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
" m" S2 E1 }4 c4 K! F2 E; @west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
6 R6 r' |1 \1 J5 ]; G5 u/ Y2 gprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
. i/ v) f( z( i% [whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
+ m) ?+ e) Y4 G0 f0 H# kToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high, [3 q8 H$ a/ u4 O r
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging." R: E9 a% ?3 L* Z$ Y4 q% y
% {; W4 D, p2 C0 _& N
Calgary/Edmonton
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: E* B1 H& x; e9 X1 `# \ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
+ D5 t! d) \4 p. z5 G+ n p% ?boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
: N4 K8 _8 g# ?, b- |/ kbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,3 g8 ]2 C1 L. Y
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
0 |7 y7 [% q3 R- M/ tFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
9 S* w \* x; B9 F. ZHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the' F; F8 c7 n2 M# m/ G6 q
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
3 P$ } [7 \% `' `3 R, s: dstrong, this market will continue to do well.
' a' `! @$ o1 u/ ~: {8 q6 K3 N; O: u& f9 J) K9 @: o0 y
Vancouver: [3 j( c' G+ o& n8 U) y
e2 x- z4 h4 w+ q* \ Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is9 W% C+ n& m5 a1 d, a1 O
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
3 @7 j) S' @% y P* kreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the8 A( f8 f" h5 N% i
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
! S- Z1 h5 w; S/ w; o( Tgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy. q4 {2 b Z3 H& @% w$ V
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
4 I" N* E# n& K8 qfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
3 L" ?) t- ~# y0 k% Wfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
0 @9 Z) G; U& fgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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$ l& S" o$ G3 ?8 U8 \, W Toronto1 W" R, i4 ~3 X* Z6 H4 P7 [3 C
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and1 @9 |+ N) j6 D4 H
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
4 Z" e' w! F* `% S& ~4 _relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
Q: n7 v% t6 [# y; x4 q( ?# Iindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.1 M4 u+ I/ ^3 j" m; ?0 P
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square: P1 Z6 f% b; t
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and" k& {4 }5 S- o6 P$ Z
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.4 Y! b9 ]- s2 X" ^6 |, K
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Montreal
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) h" \% M% H1 z D( @0 F/ T& ~ | Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
: H7 \) E( n/ P4 W- b% [/ {( Kgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up5 ?+ V( y! [/ K4 p! A" R/ X) f! ]
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
; v4 j% a5 S) f9 NCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
% u3 }$ v. b. M3 ^1 M/ A6 h" D. Ssectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
( U" a( O2 r T. M qhigher as a "hold" recommendation.& U3 z( w7 d: x% O) K$ G" I
1 U& T5 `, `) N- V The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years7 X7 y( c& s8 y& X9 H# t, G
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
, x3 p' G8 R% }9 U9 amarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos5 q9 v; n, g8 ~7 g
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest; v! B0 k7 [) ]' `1 b' M5 O: v
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
3 k0 v9 @2 N7 B2 D! p' yprices."
/ a% \7 ?* W. z5 C0 | A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at1 c& f1 c2 F7 |/ u) _1 N5 F
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre. t' E/ j0 H/ V6 E6 g) O
, X7 e+ e& k ? Q5 f5 K
About PricewaterhouseCoopers4 p! j0 u: D% v' o! ] S; N+ A
, m. W6 ]2 N0 u PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
& h5 ?( `* M% utax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its5 F1 } w; X$ Y8 q+ V, B- R
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries) `$ X0 \" E5 F" G* b0 W% P
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop/ j0 _2 V6 o0 B5 C4 N6 |
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of* v/ r9 K) J* `* [! U! H3 f' r1 v/ d
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its/ m+ K0 c! Q! b. Y
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
3 M1 U! |4 F. V |7 Q) R, Tcountry.- V# c: O$ o0 H! Y: w, U
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
% j& J0 w r# B1 olimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the* ^- C5 v) S* ~% a; q2 {- T; ~6 D
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
4 l% S% \4 a' f) n- Beach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.' q4 A, X: t% g# M: x0 F0 M0 \/ o
5 F: \* n" z2 V' f5 T9 t About the Urban Land Institute' z7 R, B( [' S6 O: K3 j7 a
6 _& s) f* w) ~. D The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and& ^1 S# g+ z2 \! `2 a. T! A
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide) G; K' \/ m5 e- D) s$ ?
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
' V2 H+ \# ]4 B1 n4 ?: o8 Sthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more+ V+ m7 |3 V# ^
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
6 D6 q @! x8 P& B3 c& V7 ?disciplines.3 q4 A4 ?( j+ a6 {; Z+ ?
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
5 P5 T" N# d- c( {With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District# |' @5 ^+ x1 T$ n& } k
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
+ M$ r! m: o+ \2 ~4 P! p1 U. inow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be# H# S- }+ n' L4 u
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,5 t* M5 J4 u9 ]! N
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake1 t) G2 e# t S( K) @. X2 y$ [
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,9 g! s5 `# h0 H- M/ u
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
( e+ o, P* F& [& S/ i, V% Ncall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on- z. e& u O; v1 Y1 M" K$ Q/ e( d
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
% |( }7 Q( y& |9 ~% Z& F3 |+ s/ W6 y( k& Y
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x }; j* N' [6 v, E# PFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
* \/ n* h: b# ?8 q(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com) c. d+ m: D+ N6 [; B1 o
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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