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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 6 O1 Q) M0 I: ]6 ~5 ^) L
$ J& K: |0 K& l" YDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat " M: f, P% V; M' N8 l# e9 u4 j7 O. k
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US( K) y& }0 T) t5 `: x1 H- c
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
$ S( I3 k" i7 v) Xas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
/ ]! ]' }( o: [4 STrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
* c4 N. g( b) `$ @( {+ Uand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more+ n! |: k7 R( ]8 @6 x: T8 C C
upbeat.4 M; p8 j' n! z3 `. w; @- E
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
$ h# C" k6 v+ O/ @/ ]$ pannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
4 @. v% J$ V& T6 \: ~interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
; p Z3 [3 U4 b Uestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
7 \# j% i; f8 S1 v, Crepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.6 T1 y7 h" Q e* I5 u
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world+ p; L9 u* M- r
including Asia Pacific and Europe.* i B6 y+ N0 q! h8 u+ Y
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian- N- f; K9 e/ `$ Y4 P
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
' K- [) X& o S$ V" Fenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to0 d o# _& f/ y& S
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
8 ^$ c* w" w9 ~highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."+ E1 z" j' E ^! R9 B$ z, f! y
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
; }+ M# b" A- h4 ^. pborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game( b: v& f7 }( m$ P9 d) D
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey9 K* t5 u( r( o* z
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
6 c* V K! A) N2 X* b7 \correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
( M! ?% X; L0 B* |8 `very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
: v4 e! \9 G# H* p& F The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian! S1 L' h# G8 ]- D r
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by \8 l6 W8 z' r: S0 G# E
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
8 S, H! o8 q, v: }4 I/ x+ Rdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country3 A( V( w5 y5 Z
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating7 r, H/ T) w; X f
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
0 {: c+ \! m+ G4 Lresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to! f! W! M9 D$ f" V. y
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
/ |7 P* K1 Y" }2 O$ t" D f$ zsingle-family housing looks overpriced., J- O/ ?( k( @/ z
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with. B$ |% L' \# x7 N/ l: E' n! Y- k
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian+ i3 ~& N' K: Y1 b
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
) n C* ^4 B. w. g7 zhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
8 c; i0 ^" m0 j h& f$ c$ snew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
& O. v- t8 O3 g+ Z+ f9 [and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
* \* ]* G6 ?! _: T2 s3 O: zapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary7 E x$ j1 ? v3 T- p
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
3 d5 B' Q* A9 l/ L2 \8 jshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
- Q3 h: q ]8 l& bthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
& U9 v% ^8 O, i; U$ p$ g6 ~. qin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
* T. i9 O& p) E' t5 p# A! Q) n& v. ~3 r4 F8 ~
Canadian Markets to Watch S2 g* [7 I& S2 x
9 r# B. O# m" I3 A1 Z The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
6 M: ^* f8 f- ucities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
. K7 e! ?# ?# i- p3 A8 w, e( ?neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
) e3 }6 Z6 j6 j u0 d% jinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
6 ~& [8 S! f4 z% N* Rdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
: v- t; | e2 x) eprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out: m, J7 R e& x4 F% D
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment1 k% J3 |2 J/ @4 Z0 T
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
' P b* R2 W0 K% {5 Q- vwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.& m* C F$ X- K+ P8 }% F
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
5 I) s& @/ x! ~. v6 w8 _ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
' l) o8 l; A6 S3 F' P( b0 K# R* ]4 o
Calgary/Edmonton
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5 h& M U" P/ n8 F Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one! L# W; w1 B9 \+ V
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a: A1 D1 F$ E- ]9 D, x+ b
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,: L2 ~4 [7 I! Q* f/ X
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
+ t; d4 W/ u7 l7 G1 U# r$ {Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale! [ s" I7 p& ?$ x7 J$ t
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
1 _) i' j9 ~) @4 I* n1 M% L8 ?Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays& L- A0 t+ i) m! C" j y4 h4 w; {
strong, this market will continue to do well.9 E- Q% {) G. @0 q
4 z6 N* P. n+ K& ] Vancouver
7 f5 ?7 _. [9 g9 N+ g
; ^) S: b) T) p. f Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
0 b' G3 Z0 A9 T5 p3 ?) C+ O* {booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
- \3 Q: I" h+ V9 \8 n0 ^9 X3 }& Zreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the; P; {9 N- J- a9 R b
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
1 J7 v. G( Z2 D; B0 Ggrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
) C: q9 ? I% P1 \2 z0 grecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%8 p- o8 h2 m. v
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%5 W/ `/ F3 l V+ I) H6 R
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very$ W! }/ }/ z# N+ ?) V
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.) h! E! t; S) y0 y# {' I. n, w
4 j( ~1 H2 E# |4 c5 L1 l' C# L3 {, ~
Toronto' K2 I% x: P& w( ~( P: [& P
0 s7 Q: _8 {1 f% z
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
" N" q$ G0 H3 [5 Q" i% ~manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
3 F: j- l3 ~% orelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
( ^8 W* M( @! z$ Findustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.1 N$ `. q9 o6 s) Z! F) b8 `$ Z
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square1 V; @3 w \4 n( [6 h0 Q! Z+ a. Q
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
# u1 x3 A/ N$ r6 pApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
7 \5 E& i- S f* r2 S9 s, Q# q% c! h) @
Montreal
0 d9 } r" G. T. Y- o8 a9 N
% _0 m3 |. S* `# W* @" A" l- U" T' J Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
! z# s/ o/ d+ N/ Z& d( ~, Ygrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up P4 W% ` d7 V1 A' e6 b
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
6 X! ]: g g1 z- OCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate) A3 l$ b+ U; b9 j: h" p
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors# P$ ]5 }( I: I4 x
higher as a "hold" recommendation.$ m- [2 a. g! r" `: a2 I4 `
9 h1 d, U# p+ u+ a( d- l* q
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years7 Y; n/ a$ s# ?# n
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy- D4 _( g- g2 m, W! _
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
* R4 P4 P% ?& |9 H% C% _near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
' O6 s2 s6 F y$ r$ moverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
* y8 y! c/ @/ z& uprices."
- D' V" N! w2 X$ B A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
Q3 j% o/ f9 B% D pwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.2 ?# @; I2 R/ e- A; X9 ~
. |& y: i+ k: T/ B: A7 K" U) S About PricewaterhouseCoopers- X9 M( h( e* ~* Y, m$ ~
" K/ H' r6 K) t' A
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
' O4 o3 t: x" J& C/ Xtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its& z4 i4 ~- l. m9 k9 V% O
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
R7 p! [, d4 S" t) U+ a) Tacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop' K6 k8 \1 X ]4 {+ {6 G
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
' _* m8 t% H3 O7 Mexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its. @* e* n* G" o; t2 M3 k
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the6 H0 x3 E+ N6 O* [
country.0 e3 ? U0 n$ e% F
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
y4 I G3 Y9 L# K! ^9 V: V7 nlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the4 Q/ g$ a7 a1 N, \$ ?3 _
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,. p9 w. p$ s: m) I
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
0 v/ p3 `7 o _! Q% K- v$ p( v+ M3 ]* T. o1 C! @, y9 c4 ~
About the Urban Land Institute% S1 h4 J& y( V5 e
2 t& y, A: X/ t+ U& a" \0 {
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
3 u9 |( l* j# A; C ^research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide- G m) f) Y% s6 \
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
3 X7 [+ a# G6 N( j; r6 _! fthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
# S1 h' _, m3 d; |than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development' W: |, R- R0 i. t
disciplines.
$ M, @+ U4 k) y4 ^1 x5 c4 \( N The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada. A5 [$ D ~7 v' L. g
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District& V% F' d1 |, a' X J% ?2 D
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
2 O2 {+ T% @4 b' p- k1 W! enow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be8 O5 G6 w1 H( u p9 d$ K4 _- m# }
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
" |2 i) w% N1 {! Y& O) b) r! w2 b$ L2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
* _: N0 x' s/ o# cHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,! X: V- I6 Q" D
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
. R) A" T# x! X% R. u& ocall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on/ b% ]6 W8 [2 _$ n
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
6 c8 d8 u* \% p9 z! F) {
& Q6 V4 }( M5 h1 Q" } q+ J; E: _! T( Q. Z/ ]& Q3 V" r4 @
' a5 V5 o' y$ DFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
- ~5 m3 L4 Y( @% B(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com B8 [1 |: ?. T6 Z) w
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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