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Attention Real Estate Reporters: / @ ?& a+ s4 r& R! Q) U& @
: V+ u; s( j* s2 A1 W. t. SDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat |2 d7 k f& A- ^
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US6 e6 p5 H. J# r! h" Z& s
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern- g9 X* h0 \7 ?9 @) D$ s) |
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging) C3 G. r: h: M; |+ }2 [
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Q( f& r+ P% H0 @6 x
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
7 \0 D; @) M1 [3 u% Rupbeat.
3 n: k6 N" w$ Y8 B Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
0 h: `" A! ^% ~, c7 D0 tannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects; C4 W' u: e. D5 T. v6 \1 ~# [8 C
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
8 @' M+ y0 b+ `estate experts, including investors, developers, property company6 t4 h5 \9 ~' Z8 y1 Z4 R
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
$ L4 w! F; Q) F: T' ^9 K3 x* cOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world3 p' Z7 Q0 S4 E h
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
4 F. P6 P, I# m) ~+ y4 l5 {, P According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian+ i" {8 J- u3 S* T) p
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
4 G1 }& u5 ^; F% Yenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to5 U% A8 s& q* x$ k* }3 f, @5 B2 h
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
9 ^3 P' `) u6 p0 Khighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
1 i% @$ x [& y+ X According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
8 w& b( ?- c3 T7 H: |border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
, U* Y$ F$ X( {1 Z8 Tspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
6 |. l* ^; l3 T! W' I/ mremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
+ \! p9 y$ n, O4 kcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
6 `: Q# }" x, n, v2 T% kvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.1 q. l1 G8 e \* O+ S! T) R
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
" H' U- V% R; G) A9 w* [respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by \( O. [8 K0 O* D1 J& l
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
* ?6 P6 c* a) X8 Jdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
$ q- N& k: |2 M& ^( mespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
9 E6 F" b* v. x! y& ?. [# ~0 n' o$ |development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
+ g3 T& K2 O+ ?5 x4 Iresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
0 L$ h9 ]0 V- l+ q) wtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and- P; A$ @2 [$ Q& H; U! }
single-family housing looks overpriced.) Q I& ^' j# P8 j
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
( O7 T/ E/ q# c. g, ], Xtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
& z* @4 J+ |" d& e! j- Bmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
' V2 @3 F7 o6 p9 t+ ?higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting8 Y6 O8 v. ?1 U% h Q3 u
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,3 a) S1 k1 Y/ L! Q" E& q( J& z
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
) ~3 l+ \- w, G$ C2 i3 g" _" c/ D3 \apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
$ f) Z& c% C3 Lwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing8 k9 f- t- c# h
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into/ c1 X( c0 p: g8 X" B% X$ D
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
9 L7 H' l+ a6 y* Nin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
! E& z4 T/ R: F* B( {. E) j: v4 ^" q7 B' t
Canadian Markets to Watch
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2 o2 G$ j7 m* I3 d- l7 e The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central- {) s0 A& A" i8 e
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour; ~0 W; a c) `" }
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
) @3 D9 w+ x! Z! J# {$ M$ @' dinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in( I0 p% E* ^5 E+ d
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
- e/ H$ G- ?+ H/ J* J, }projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out. h8 L5 ?) U4 V
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment) m6 x* k. ?% U" R
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
; G" u' q9 S$ P) N, pwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
* P2 B6 X% \ i5 I8 c9 fToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high9 P' b, f: K9 r0 C( x, p
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
) @0 Q9 t$ l& U! v* P( E/ p2 C, O
- f: l& d& Q8 ~# M( s Calgary/Edmonton6 U* H3 r* p1 L$ j
$ c5 Q. r1 d; |5 t. h5 ^ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
/ T2 [" j# T5 j$ x+ Uboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a' v P) X. ]( T) J' J5 l
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
: q3 t1 o" ~9 o8 w! K48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
- V% y, H1 i [2 V: {# B- F# vFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale1 d- T* ~( t) [8 R# R- T
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
0 h. O5 j+ r% p% g" ACalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays7 m6 \% v2 s5 F4 P
strong, this market will continue to do well.0 z5 `$ P# h0 L, @
) Z# c' O' Z4 z! d% h6 q& E6 U
Vancouver
7 {7 H+ Y2 v/ g* S0 R5 r+ ^% O! v+ |9 ?
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
: o4 `* |: Y& ?* _: _0 t; ^booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
7 d0 R# _: K \real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
9 A7 ~9 |0 R1 A9 F# Q/ Ymarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
4 i6 m" A% D" D8 p2 ]growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy/ U/ W2 \1 o2 b- C* {
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%; _/ d" Y1 X1 f- L
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
" J4 O) l* S" _for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very- Q. t* U% T' V* f# u; T+ c$ n
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.- @2 p$ h. ^# ^- [# K
; p2 H2 Z8 |& w. ]4 P5 q d3 K
Toronto. P4 d; ^2 ?) H A& f! h
0 Q+ F \/ F! V# Y
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and! Y$ T4 Y0 o) ?8 e e& ?- H5 [! o3 L
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is: r( j+ Q3 B/ v. M4 X# B i9 C
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
0 G- n$ h% |$ L7 Q! Gindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.* l0 H% U* _: t9 z% X
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square8 I* E- Z' W7 U$ W {
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and. l0 ]8 A+ {/ j7 H. p
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.: d$ P1 ?/ x: l& k k7 M- F; u$ R
3 x0 J0 @' ~( F
Montreal
5 v3 g& ~5 j) F j' F5 |% G
" N. G) `3 U+ x3 d Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
8 P. h7 U! k( R) tgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
R+ t# \- j$ P4 z# Jshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
' r9 L1 O" \! j& E" t2 vCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate1 R/ z, y# D% Z0 [9 l
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors% g( Q, ^8 H0 r0 R1 y* i& w n
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
6 E" I2 Y3 x# [include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy: P+ A( Q7 P, V _( I# }2 Y4 S4 r3 D
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
& Z/ r+ ]+ t/ O* O( U0 `' fnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest4 i7 t& K- m+ U% J3 [, @4 C2 m
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current) G6 n9 n I; R
prices."
1 E, T: ]8 k% X5 a# j A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
9 a" y; x/ F. Z( y- ?www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre./ a7 [5 g' ]- D5 x5 O3 J
7 q" _, w% n( b+ @7 ^2 o
About PricewaterhouseCoopers3 n) {* h4 i; D. ]! p; H, s; J- V" Z
' o- x. Q) d5 s* Z+ l7 H+ a0 i
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,7 ?! u l/ A2 C& O( M
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
0 g) g8 @! k6 ~6 t tclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
' a; D' r* \- f, L3 r+ sacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
% K t/ f4 S% J2 F: H" Qfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of9 L" P1 T6 m t) a4 q
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
- ^/ \5 Y' r4 }5 R9 I9 Srelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the. v D# [% ~' \7 f
country.! J7 F! S) M; k" @% b# Z2 ]
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
. B" x& @) i: M% L" b2 \limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the& N" [$ z; I& [$ L; D& h
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,3 ~" ^* S+ t8 F2 l, C; g" d! r
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
, A; [! Y' A# S5 ?1 n
) w: w) w/ J4 [4 W3 N3 W1 G) n About the Urban Land Institute/ y$ T: s# L6 M
4 m; q7 r! K; y1 Q3 t
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
M, H: o2 z1 {* P, g8 C! presearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide4 s0 |: v6 i. [% `
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
' `' W g/ u* i1 g3 f- r1 o; u$ F9 athriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more V1 k$ p! g5 |5 U0 j0 H
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
( s! T6 ?8 Z& M" V9 `% Qdisciplines.0 `5 m. f* {0 B' a2 j
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.+ L% {7 ^2 S# J
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
& Y$ c! V) Q( ~8 Z- ^( UCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is" [( y, j! p) t6 F& p8 ~9 K2 a+ u7 l
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
& r9 j/ e% f) f. s" N% xhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
% R8 u+ @( R1 c' [ z" J! v2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
( b+ J& y% O6 I7 o+ y: p1 xHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
7 ~5 P r6 P7 c2 e; z7 K4 J9 S4 dPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please4 K, X% e/ s- w( q; l
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on& l2 F: u1 h Y! P
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066." C) @& `3 ?! q7 }0 R
7 T {) s. j7 S% p( ^# F+ b7 p7 p+ \5 F- O' T, {4 ?
; V# ~( P# y0 j3 Y8 \/ K% _! _
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,1 v" c9 r$ [% b
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
, H8 o4 P3 |8 Q4 r* thttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html/ _7 j+ V7 D' v9 _- Q! {1 S
% F Z/ l; F+ Q5 }1 q" {[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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