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Is housing influenza infecting Calgary?
& Y* m3 u9 t. m+ N* wPlunging sales raise spectre of U.S.-style meltdown
8 F _: z7 H7 y2 G/ S( VMario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald
- R/ E! K" V8 z5 ]0 RPublished: Sunday, April 27, 2008
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; Z, F+ `2 e4 d9 t/ j1 A+ K& ASales in the MLS residential real estate market have plunged in the first quarter of this year compared with a year ago in Calgary.
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& Z( x5 j e% y7 B( K2 z& R) sAt the same time, new listings have soared.# b9 @) F$ v+ C8 U
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And prices have stabilized over the past few months.
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The million-dollar question in Calgary these days is where the market is headed after experiencing such a dramatic turn from where it was just 12 months ago.. C {: w0 f2 r0 y
/ S( V! x! u+ N3 f3 SLike many in the city, Jacquelynn Benson, 26, and her husband Scot have been searching for a single-family home in the Calgary area. They moved to Calgary from Saskatchewan a year ago and bought a condominium in McKenzie Towne in April 2007.
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Last year, they bought a home in a seller's market. This year, it has turned into a buyer's market as the Bensons hunt for their dream home. But prices in the city remain steep for the type of home they want.
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As of Friday, the Calgary Real Estate Board website was showing an average MLS sale price of $471,863 for single-family homes in Calgary metro sold in the past 30 days, with a median sale price of $420,000. During that time, total single-family home sales were 1,391 and active listings have ballooned to 6,775 in the city itself.& l3 l3 V B( h9 F, J
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"It's difficult," says Jacquelynn Benson of the couple's search, which has taken them outside the city to places like Langdon, where there is more bang for their buck with bigger house sizes on larger pieces of land.0 P+ F* u# u1 p0 J* X
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She says it's evident the market has shifted into one that favours buyers.
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9 q8 y7 e* K9 b0 u"We're concerned about when we do buy, whether or not we're even going to sell our condo," says Benson. "We don't have it on the market. We're waiting to see what we're going to do. I think that even says it right there: We're not even sure if we're going to sell it. We could rent it out. The market is not where it was last year."
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The most recent CREB data reflects that, with officials saying it's now a buyer's market, unlike a year ago.
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$ |7 d; o h' M9 I( [' G& j' zTotal MLS inventory at the end of March was 12,597, a whopping 167 per cent increase from 4,723 registered in March 2007. The month-end inventory for single-family homes in Calgary metro was 5,957, up 155 per cent from a year ago, while for condos it was up a staggering 283 per cent from a year ago, to 2,781 listings from 726.% s& t& p' u/ D% d. h. L9 H" a
& J4 w& D! P& z) s1 OWith that inventory, about one in five homes on the market were selling in March.
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+ ~* |+ t- o4 W4 o% H"The days of the sellers in the last couple of crazy market years just naming their price and throwing their house on without presenting their house correctly, those days are done," CREB president Ed Jense said when the organization released its data.
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"Right now, the excess inventory is allowing the buyers to choose what they want. . . . That allows them to be picky and sellers need to pay attention to whatever their specific marketplace is doing. . . . You just can't name your price."8 G5 g! p* }4 j% |0 j
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Whether you're a potential homebuyer or seller -- or even an interested observer -- people want to know where the market is headed.
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# }, c! M# N8 G" D4 kGarth Turner, a Tory member of Parliament and author of Greater Fool, a recently published real estate book, says Canada has much in common with the United States in that we've had a booming real estate market essentially since 2001. Interest rates have been low since 9/11 and, at the same time, people were afraid of the stock market.
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- ~( L0 e8 }" w+ n) j"It became the perfect storm for real estate investing. So everyone went nuts," says Turner.
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"We've had the same run-up in real estate values more or less comparative to the United States and that has made real estate unaffordable for the average family. And the way the real estate industry coped with that in the United States, they invented something called the subprime, which was basically giving real estate loans to less qualified people.
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7 G, @- Q/ P F; i, p1 q"In Canada, we did the same thing. We call it 40-year mortgages, and 40-year mortgages dropped monthly payments so they actually let people qualify who normally wouldn't.
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4 p0 E5 w! _& n2 y; i"And we secondly introduced basically no money down real estate at one, two, three, four, five per cent down in many, many places especially with new home developments."* Q/ V# ]3 W. A) O. D- a
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Turner's book predicts that a U.S.-style real estate flu, which could last a couple of years, is sweeping into Canada -- a housing disaster beginning to unfold here.5 X% i: q% C, l4 Y
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Canada has had two things happen the same as the United States, says Turner: the big appreciation in real estate values and relaxing mortgage standards.
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"The number three thing that happens should be a no-brainer, and that is in the U.S. prices continued to go up until they reached a point where they had to burst. Well, in Canada we're just getting to that point now," says Turner.' z! X8 ?$ ~4 g, @9 v* b3 c t, o
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"Here we are in the spring of 2008, two and a half years after the American real estate market collapsed, and they're still collapsing, we are just starting and there's more to come."6 g O" ` \7 E" h6 a# f
- P/ e b3 V' D7 n5 }6 [# |The first thing that happens is a decline in sales, not prices, says Turner. The reason for that is people keep buying and are "oblivious" to the fact sales activity is going down. And the sellers don't know it's a buyers market until it's too late. Prices don't go down as much as six to nine months later.
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. @9 |2 s$ [8 A( v"Right now we're in the first phase in Alberta," he says.9 T. q; ~. U( k, ]) s# d! ^
( a5 z1 r. U4 k; ~8 ^5 Z( b8 V+ d& C2 }Turner says real estate markets in Calgary and Edmonton moved ahead of the boom of the rest of the country. Prices went up further, faster in Alberta because of the economy, but family incomes in Alberta have gone up only marginally faster than in the rest of the country.$ v3 p9 p: v2 S* n; w; `! B
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"You've seen housing become less affordable in Alberta to the average family," he says. "So therefore you've already started into the correction faster than the rest of Canada.". F2 z0 Y. |' b a. \
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And the affordability issue is why Alberta cannot weather the storm, explains Turner.
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1 p8 ]0 ]* |7 D1 j# z. r"When the average family can't afford the average home, prices go down and we've already reached that point. And unless there's some giant pool of Alberta dollars around that the government is going to give everybody $10,000 or $15,000 more a year in income, it ain't going to happen. It's simply an economic formula," adds Turner. "Alberta is a little bit of a different case and it's probably going to be a little slower decline than the rest of the country but it's absolutely going to happen.". B0 B* s. [' t. s7 V' q
. Y }' _% n7 Z6 [Don Campbell, president of the Real Estate Investment Network in Canada, thinks that's nonsense.7 X$ c* X3 N6 z, L" M
& y+ \& E4 B8 H: H+ b+ C"First of all, we have already committed in Alberta over the next eight to 10 years $254-billion worth of major projects that are already on the books, and/or started, and/or are going to occur. This doesn't include the ones that are speculative," says Campbell, the author of two books -- Real Estate Investing in Canada, and 51 Success Stories from Canadian Real Estate Investors.& V. x! _5 \$ V; S0 H
' x' m, L h, B"You put $254 billion into an economy that has 3.4 million people in it, you're going to see an increase in demand. You're going to see an increase in demand in rentals and you're going to see an increase in demand for buying of properties.5 u3 u: U3 r5 t' Z+ [. {
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"Right now, we are in that major plateau, the point where speculators are getting shaken out of the marketplace, the short-term thinkers. And the long-term thinkers are buying."
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0 U2 c# Z9 i: T6 |He describes the current housing market situation as a blip.
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"If you went and bought around where the new (LRT) stations are going . . . and you bought now at this time when it's a buyer's market, which we haven't seen for seven or eight years . . . and you sat on it, you'll look like a genius three, four years from now," says Campbell.. \; M7 o" ?- }: {! U7 H1 y" ^
2 F; q7 X, a4 a$ Y! B! S; j"But if you bring a day-trade mentality to real estate, which some people do, then they shouldn't be in the real estate investment game. Real estate is a long-term investment and it's not a straight line."
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' o$ Y ]7 @5 MAnd in the long-term, real estate here looks great, says Campbell, adding year-over-year average house price gains in Calgary should be in the 11 per cent range this year.1 |) U% d$ C) h, s) W
, G. j2 P2 S& K5 |% t3 p" xTodd Hirsch, senior economist for ATB Financial in Calgary, says the current market in the city is an odd one, with so many homes for sale, few of them moving, but prices holding up.3 Q! U9 a2 x( K# r# j, T1 M
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"I think the prices holding up speaks to the fact Alberta's economy is still doing OK," says Hirsch./ X) v9 h' I( k) X3 S
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"Buyers, on the other hand, are just taking their time. They're willing to fork out the money once they find the right one. It's more a buyer's market now. They have more selection and there isn't this panic of 'you better buy it now because it will be gone this afternoon.'
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"You don't want a market like that. No one does, especially buyers. Buyers have a bit more luxury now, but where they're not getting very much luxury is they're not seeing big discounts like they're seeing in the United States."
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The big question is where this is headed. The Alberta economy will level off this year at good rates of growth, he says.
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"We might start to see a bit of a pickup in activity towards the summer and fall in the real estate market. Not huge, but I think we will start to see homes selling a little faster again. The number of homes sold will pick up and the price will continue to stabilize at a five to 10 per cent increase year over year."! a) x! n+ |5 }' i5 M( r- C' B
' X, T+ F- T7 {3 Z' YCanada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s first-quarter outlook forecasts total MLS sales in the Calgary census metropolitan area to decline to 30,500 units this year from 32,176 in 2007.
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n 2009, it is forecast to drop to 29,500.
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2 ^$ j1 X$ }/ q: a4 X, }8 m& Z7 [; [CMHC predicts the average MLS sale price for all residential properties is expected to increase to $429,000 this year from $414,066 in 2007. In 2009, it is forecast to hit $450,000., R4 N3 s- T! x: K9 [% Y, p
8 ?- e+ X" I6 O4 C) }* b8 XThe Calgary census metropolitan area includes the city, Airdrie, the Municipal District of Rocky View, Chestermere, Cochrane, Irricana, Beiseker and Crossfield. \+ b3 u D( {: x
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Lai Sing Louie, senior market analyst in Calgary for the CMHC, says a revised forecast is expected in May.
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Adam Legge, vice-president and chief economist for Calgary Economic Development, says the city hit a pretty significant high over the past two years with house prices, "and that impact is largely here to stay."
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$ [' k+ n/ j6 R% n8 ~4 \9 w$ k p"I don't see a lot of price decline on a year-over-year basis in Calgary. I think we're still a pretty healthy economy and still a pretty healthy housing market," says Legge.
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8 D1 s- z/ P4 ^5 v' m M9 ]mtoneguzzi@theherald.canwest.com
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© The Calgary Herald 2008( V& G$ [9 M* {. Q) M0 x' B
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