August housing starts better than expected

WHMIS · 发表于 2008-9-9 20:06

August housing starts better than expectedCanada's housing starts jumped 15 per cent in August, substantially exceeding industry expectations, according to figures released Tuesday.
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said, on an annualized basis, 211,000 new units were begun in August. That was a big increase compared to the 186,500 new-home starts in July.
The news was even better considering that housing starts fell almost 14 per cent in July compared to June. Thus, analysts were worried that this sector, an indicator of economic expectations among consumers, was slipping rapidly.
Possible recoveryInstead, the August numbers show a housing industry that might be coming back, CMHC said.
"After a brief pause in July, the volatile multiple segment bounced back to a level of activity that is more consistent with our forecast for this year," said Bob Dugan, chief economist at CMHC's Market Analysis Centre.
Economists had expected some sort of housing jump after July's poor showing.
RBC assistant chief economist Paul Ferley, for instance, had predicted new homes to be up 4.6 per cent in the month. And the Bay Street consensus was for housing starts to hit 190,000 on an annualized basis.
In fact, the August figures indicated new-home starts growing at a rate three times faster than Ferley's estimate and a number 11 per cent higher than analyst expectations.
Still, the gains last month were not across all regions of the country.
Ontario gains"Most of the volatility in housing starts over the last three months reflected swings in multiple starts in Ontario," CMHC said.
Indeed, Canada's most populous province saw its urban housing starts soar by 81 per cent, or 86,500 units. That was good news considering the slumping manufacturing sector and slowing overall economic growth in Ontario.

Urban housing starts	(negative growth)
Ontario	81 %
Quebec	(8.7)
British Columbia	(8.2)
Prairies	(22.5)
Atlantic Canada	(11.5)
Source: CHMC

In the four other regions tracked by CMHC, however, fewer new homes were started in towns and cities in August than a month earlier.
CMHC divides its analysis between rural and urban areas.
For the first eight months of the year, urban starts across Canada were up one per cent compared to the same period in 2007.
When you add in new rural starts, however, the overall growth rate turns negative with the new combined number of housing starts down 4.3 per cent versus 2007.
More data neededThese mixed figures have economists seeking more evidence that the housing sector is on firm footing before declaring an upswing in progress.
“On balance, this does not necessarily mean that housing remains healthy,” Charmaine Buskas, senior economic strategist at TD Economics said in a research note.
“It should be taken for what it is – a snapback from a previously large decline."

苹果鸭梨 · 发表于 2008-9-9 21:18

一个波动而已，房子售价降低，导致新房开工增加，很正常

依勒特 · 发表于 2008-9-10 08:34

Single-detached construction at lowest level since 1990

Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald

Published: Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Two more signs emerged Tuesday that Calgary's once red-hot housing market has dramatically cooled.

Total housing starts in August plunged by 60.3 per cent compared with a year ago in the Calgary census metropolitan area and the number for single-detached homes is the lowest level for any August since 1990, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

As well, residential building permit value year to date in the City of Calgary is down 35 per cent to $1.2 billion compared with a year ago. According to the city, applications have been submitted for a total of 5,543 new residential dwelling units for the first eight months of this year. For the same period in 2007 and 2006, there were applications for 9,683 and 10,866 new residential units respectively. In August, the value of residential permits plunged to $80.9 million compared with $168 million in August 2007.

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Housing starts in the Calgary area fell 60.3 per cent for the month of August as the market experiences what one economist calls "a hangover."
Leah Hennel, Calgary Herald

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Font:****The double-barrelled "bad" news on Calgary's housing front comes one week after the Calgary Real Estate Board reported the average MLS sale price for a single-family home in Calgary fell by more than nine per cent in August compared with a year ago, while the average condo price dropped by just over 10 per cent and sales in both markets also declined -- by nearly 11 per cent for single-family homes and more than 17 per cent for condos.

Calgarians were "riding the wave" of lofty years in the real estate market in 2006 and 2007, said Adam Legge, vice-president and chief economist for Calgary Economic Development, and many thought "the good times were going to keep rolling forever."

"But really what we have found is that 2006 and 2007 were exceptional years and we are purely coming back down to more normalized, more balanced market activity," said Legge.

"But what it's left is a bit of a hangover in the residential housing market where we have an excess number of listings."

He said people have to bear in mind the housing market activity could not continue at the same torrid pace as those two years.

"It's going to take some time to work through this excess supply and what that's doing is putting downward pressure on prices," said Legge. "So it's not unrealistic to see prices come down because they purely went too high, too fast and what we're seeing now is a work through of that to bring prices to a more reasonable level."

Legge said the economic conditions in the city remain positive and are not a factor in the current state of the real estate market.

"From the fundamentals to support a housing market, Calgary has got them all in place. Strong employment. We have continued employment growth. We have very strong wage growth," he said, adding that inflation has moderated to 3.3 per cent as of July. "The fundamentals are very strong. They're very stable. All we're facing really is a bit of a rebalancing in the residential housing market, but that is creating some fear amongst the population that because my house value is dropping that the economy is in the tank. What I want to stress is that it is the furthest thing from the truth."

依勒特 · 发表于 2008-9-10 09:03

Period from January to August saw 51 per cent fewer basements poured

Bill Mah
The Edmonton Journal; with files from Canwest News Service

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

EDMONTON - Not since 2001 have so few homes been started in the Edmonton region for the first eight months of the year.

For the year to date, total housing starts have fallen by 51 per cent to 4,972 units, compared to activity in the first eight months of 2007, according to preliminary statistics released Tuesday by the Canada Mortgage Housing Corp.

That marks the lowest level of January to August home-building activity for the Edmonton census metropolitan area since seven years ago when 4,813 homes were started.

For August, housing starts in the Edmonton region continued their prolonged fall, dropping by 67 per cent compared to the same month a year ago.

It follows a similar 67-per-cent year-over-year drop in July.

"This is a continuing story that we've witnessed for more than a year as the industry has adjusted to a different environment than what they were facing a year and a half ago," said Richard Goatcher, the federal agency's senior market analyst for Edmonton.

"We're getting close to the bottom of the cycle. When you look at their new home inventories, they've got to be getting close to the peak."

Fewer people moving to Alberta triggered a sizable inventory run-up in both existing and new housing, Goatcher said.

For the 14th straight month, builders of single-detached homes in the capital region poured fewer basements on a year-over-year basis.

They started 184 units in August -- down 74 per cent from the 697 started in August 2007.

The year's production so far of 1,737 single homes is the lowest output since 1995 when 1,411 units were started.

"At some point completions are going to start to wane and that will allow inventories to start to turn the corner, and then we should start to see an improvement in single-detached starts but probably not until the new year," Goatcher said.

Multiple dwelling starts across Greater Edmonton in August dropped by 58.5 per cent to 241 units compared to 581 in August last year. "We expect to see an improvement in singles going forward but we don't expect to see that improvement in multi-family because of the large volume of condo apartments we have in the pipeline which will really satisfy demand right through next year."

Across Alberta, total housing starts in the seven largest cities fell by 58 per cent year-over-year to 1,403 units.

Total housing starts in August plunged by 60.3 per cent compared with a year ago in the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area and the number for single-detached homes is the lowest level for any August since 1990, according to CMHC. Preliminary figures by the agency show total housing starts in the month were 594, down from the 1,497 units in August 2007. The drop was experienced in both single-detached construction, where there were only 334 units started in August and down 53.5 per cent from a year ago, and in the multi-family sector, where 260 units were started which was off 66.6 per cent from August 2007.

Construction of new homes in Canada rose more than expected in August, led by multi-unit and single-family starts, with Ontario accounting for all the gains, CMHC said Tuesday.

CMHC said 211,000 new homes were started last month, on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, compared with a 13.6-per-cent drop to 186,500 starts in July. The July data showed a fall in multi-unit starts, most acutely felt in Toronto's condo market.

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August housing starts better than expected

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