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Circle these days on your calendar. They will long be remembered, especially by those Polyannas in the housing biz who have been trying to mislead consumers for their own gain.! ?+ d, s6 ^: T2 M# ?
) b- e9 o( w( |+ IThe housing crisis in North America created a financial crisis, which spawned denial, and has now blossomed into nuclear winter. As I write this, the fourth-largest private investment bank in the US, Lehman Brothers, is being flushed away into insolvency. Mighty Merrill Lynch is about to disappear, and the vastly important insurer, AIG, is staggering.
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7 ~# K- X) g% q9 [This comes after the collapse earlier this year of Bear Stearns, and the shocking government takeover of Freddie and Fannie just days ago. This also arrives against a backdrop of a still-declining real estate market, a looming sea change in American politics and a rapidly slowing global economy.6 `4 l3 F% Y( b/ F) g
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To conclude: Holy crap.
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% Z! y3 T! J+ A; Q" b, wThe full implications of this can’t be clearly seen by anyone at the moment, but I’d say this is what Canadians can expect:
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The stock market will be hammered, eroding the value of every investor’s portfolio, RRSP and pension. This brings household wealth down, drops confidence and is nothing but negative news for real estate as liquidity is drained away in financial losses.
& T$ K, M r1 t- A0 e: |Credit is going to be a lot harder to find. Banks on both sides of the border have already pulled their horns in a little, and that can only accelerate. Look for far tighter restrictions on loans and mortgages to new borrowers, to builders, for renovation and lines of credit. - b. _, s6 P C3 c
An inevitable result is a sharp acceleration in the decline of the Canadian market. Without a steady flow of new investors and buckets of borrowed money, there is no alternative, especially in real estate markets where prices are unsustainable – Vancouver and Victoria, for example.
5 r/ Y7 R- A, d$ l+ kFurther restrictions on mortgage lending mandated by government. In this environment of declining equity, allowing buyers to finance 95% of the purchase prices, is like shooting carp in a tub.
: L- O. Z! O1 E& O' o" aThe descent of prices will quicken. With about 90,000 resale listings currently on the market – the highest ever – and this financial crisis spilling over from the south, along with a very costly winter setting in, many sellers will be motivated to bail for a far lower asking price. / @! |. j! _% \/ G% y c7 N6 m
Those Canadians who thought we could end up with a five-month adjustment, after the Americans have been through a three-year Armageddon, had better think again. This is just the beginning, pushed along by big events like those unfolding on Wall Street and in Washington this week.3 _# V0 }' ~' x9 k7 X# G
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Circle these days. You’ll want to recall when the lights started failing. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2008-9-15 11:16
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楼主
发表于 2008-9-15 12:02
