 鲜花( 17)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Canada warned it may follow U.S. meltdown/ @. o( P$ Z) H4 ~
Geoffrey Scotton, Calgary Herald, q0 K$ n# x9 j' u9 D' K* `
Published: Thursday, September 25, 20081 J# k G! h% }* W+ M
Two prominent economists warned Wednesday Canada's housing market is at a tipping point and could trigger a financial meltdown that would mirror the unprecedented crisis gripping our neighbour to the south.
% F5 y: `7 h7 s0 A/ |+ F2 R0 ]; f, Z( x9 {/ p
"We fear . . . it may simply be a matter of time (before) . . . housing and credit markets in Canada crack," said Merrill Lynch Canada Inc. analysts David Wolf and Carolyn Kwan in a note to clients. "Markets remain overly sanguine with respect to the prospects for the Canadian housing market, the financial sector and the overall economy."
$ _! ^8 R4 t8 X0 p+ u
J ]! |! o5 a( P3 E; v& Z' s# h; dLocally, some real estate players are carefully watching stretched household finances coinciding with falling real estate values, worried the squeeze could steepen the descent of a falling market -- or worse.1 v7 T+ f, H# t
! o3 {0 W, i9 O S& ^: I( M"There's definitely some concern -- prices in Calgary have been on a downward trend for well over a year and inventories are high," said realtor Gary MacLean of Re/Max Real Estate Central Calgary. "If there's a downswing, Albertans will get hurt the most. The fact that people are over-extended and leveraged to the max should be of concern to everyone."
( Y5 d: K# [* p& B" F: p- A, v
& t& U: ], H- n ^& v& w% \ iPrime Minister Stephen Harper dismissed the Merrill Lynch report, saying both the housing and consumer markets and financial institutions in Canada are "much stronger" than in the U.S.
( n2 Z! I: @6 d5 l6 E# j" P |' K6 P6 d; |5 u/ \
"I do not accept this conclusion, not at all," Harper said.9 X4 b* P' \. f( B' Q2 u
# F$ e, m9 {* Z0 u
The two economists -- who ironically work for the Canadian arm of investment bank Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc., a casualty of the financial shakeout in the U.S. that is pounding global markets -- argue household finances here are as over-extended as those in the U.S. and the U.K. were before falling house prices caused the bubble to burst.
) w3 t) c6 m" y+ H8 o' {+ p6 B% M2 _. g+ }& E3 w% S
"These data imply the Canadian household sector is now overextending itself as much as the U.S. or U.K. ever did, challenging the consensus view that Canadian lenders and borrowers have been far more conservative through the cycle," said Wolf and Kwan.8 G, f( o) v3 z0 M
! a) z+ i0 U% [2 P+ N# E+ [5 G"The absence of a Canadian credit crunch to date may be cause for concern, not comfort. How can it be that mortgage debt is growing at a double-digit pace against an asset class now seeing deflation?" said Wolf and Kwan.
8 |5 n% `! q4 H; U; @& f
: ?7 k/ q( e8 [! F! fOther economists believe worrisome parallels between the U.S. and U.K. housing markets, and Canada's, are limited.' j% n/ C5 a; b; V9 q. H2 Z: ?
: F- |. S6 y0 L! ~"We don't see the same factors," RBC Financial Group assistant chief economist Dawn Desjardins told the Herald, citing modest Canadian mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates, a smaller housing market inventory overhang than south of the border, and a lack of subprime mortgages. "From the fundamental structural backdrop, we just don't see the same situation that we saw in the U.S."
& ~0 d7 h h% g$ t; P$ |) h) l0 M1 l+ s# }) `
Calgary Economic Development chief economist Adam Legge was adamant Calgary's housing fundamentals remain strong. "Is the housing market in trouble? No. Will the bottom drop out? No," said Legge. "We should not fear a collapse."
/ j! X0 |0 b6 z9 g
' D/ U# {) B1 i) N. m7 C; |Nonetheless, house price deflation was clear in Canadian Real Estate Association statistics showing the average Canadian house sales price in August was down 5.1 per cent from a year earlier. The association noted sales volume dropped almost 20 per cent.( k1 ^8 x8 e2 j: o0 H$ _2 S0 s
3 }. r3 R+ @3 F3 K8 W2 nNowhere in Canada is the softness in real estate more pronounced than in Calgary, where association figures showed the average price for a house in August was eight per cent lower than a year earlier, while sales volume plunged nearly 17 per cent and new listings dropped 16.3 per cent.& u [ R4 d. R4 W
* e ` Q9 i# F7 e+ b& f2 L2 A& Y* y"I think there's a credit problem," said MacLean. "I don't think it's going to cause us to crash, but I do agree that the world is too overextended and too leveraged and something has to happen. There are going to be people that lose a bundle."* s+ m6 S5 e1 l
! a: w0 l$ p# G( G
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. declined to be interviewed on questions about Canada's housing market fundamentals and the Merrill Lynch report. w B4 n$ d4 _ ~8 {* J8 G" W
9 I* K$ `9 z% F3 }2 c: o
gscotton@theherald.canwest.com
# m, }7 ]* c; s, S) ]2 z$ W- D" v5 Q+ K5 }% K% D2 ~
6 R6 J& c& Y8 B# `
9 g; @* C K/ w' a6 t6 ?7 g: `
9 w1 {( w$ r! r; A- T) N! s© The Calgary Herald 2008 |
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2008-9-25 08:58
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
显身卡
发表于 2008-9-25 15:19
