No trigger for a Canadian house price crash: CIBC economist

WHMIS

No trigger for a Canadian house price crash: CIBC economist

Canadian house prices may continue to slide but there is no sign of a crash, a CIBC World Markets economist says. (CBC)Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.

In a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
3 B. z5 H* B4 F, P3 k
4 x; Z- A% i2 V( p"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."

' a3 o1 g6 k: pAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
, Q4 T  W+ ~2 a0 y
' X2 F! M+ Z) L$ b2 Y"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.

" r% q, R! p* I4 [% Z9 H"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
. I" ^2 f. a) ^  j
6 v* Q4 E- h0 o  ]0 O/ `$ V3 dSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.

! k- w" T9 B1 ?( @4 M( P. A"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."