埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2451|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.6 [9 E! W" q# |0 R( T
$ h. `/ f; ~. D4 o
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
+ A/ o, X8 @3 R  K7 K3 ~% x& [4 A0 `5 Z6 K5 ]$ p- |4 i
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ) h( l1 ]2 x9 w0 n

% N0 l9 [2 V, b  y( ]( b! x"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
) e) F% G4 t/ y; r* f+ Y( Y$ @' o
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.4 H/ K* q( p( i- I. I* G
5 R0 D/ D( f' x: ~$ Y2 Q
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.3 n6 f& a$ o/ z+ K. S9 o$ {

2 ]1 B1 N4 t3 f$ N# f"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. - L( z# M! q6 y  U# T

7 f; j/ d0 ]6 P1 Z4 nTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year." b' a/ l# w9 R; h8 G
+ i& b) M% e; O+ \
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
' R8 x0 z( i& d/ a# F2 g: ^' {; ~6 v
" i4 ^2 {- X2 V% [% r5 vhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
5 h, D9 f9 A0 |/ H* G

% a- {1 B0 l/ J# Q  V+ R4 S- g' |TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,  c6 H& \" ~' Q- s, y$ U. m2 I2 X; f
( Z9 K( `5 T  a% Y1 x( e
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
. K; f8 g7 I, C+ o. w 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。/ `1 j3 X, U- L# {9 p3 I( @
8 D1 F  k; y; R0 v- g0 m  \/ q1 q
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表   R- t- @& T  q7 g
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

0 B1 [. j8 L+ `0 g很多人都回学校深造去了
: E% f- P! |5 w: q6 K4 T) d* |嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta. l5 e, F$ n2 t' S4 V
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its- N: i; D. `$ y/ y: t  b
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
- q( T9 q% o6 F# X& s6 h* h" v, Rare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
  ~- @# K8 b2 z8 _+ m3 z% g2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 {' t) E2 z- B+ f) }! z% v$ wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! v# f( i( U% n
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 m) |! K. ]8 u2 P) [' @+ z) U6 r
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. q; ^* T+ v; g) e, S
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
0 d3 R: W3 P8 q' @% h( b" space of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# d9 h: @" o* N7 h) ~4 A: p4 q) Cprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined; }0 z/ l! l  n0 n
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 z8 ^$ W1 M  |# Y- c; Tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this) a, e% C3 j$ }' n' r1 E; Z& z
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 U0 s" X9 U; q
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# }0 A5 S+ W3 J' \3 f
30,000 new households will form in the province during; _' E$ g+ T  D; [0 c) R  L
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 b$ `" U! q% [( W4 o" i3 j8 M; ~6 ^
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
. x4 P0 w- M6 ~, }1 R* Z3 `homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ _9 G. d% E! H# f3 ], \, D. vduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta: }8 W# O4 r4 R3 u# M
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new: \7 ?" O2 K8 R
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals2 @! U( ]; X# t3 F
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
& Q) e; C4 N2 ]  Z  osales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, X* N4 W0 I$ Q* m6 g8 H: ?, H% t
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ M9 L% y% b% [  sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ S% p" G: Q- k8 C. ]* C
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* I. a2 H  ?1 w6 Z- Jsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
/ t9 P3 \% l' C; {9 L8 mbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# \. o# C# x# Wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in5 J: Z; Z1 w- ^5 a2 }3 `5 F& ~( E
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 I( y4 c7 h+ tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
4 Z" e/ J+ ]% C0 [7 \& Yrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
" v- A' k  m8 T& Hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
$ C$ i/ j8 }* K7 s# L$ pmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories8 |2 |3 X# g1 w" c
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
- r5 [% K% Z% ]. v- \0 qrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.. ^' e" y, G+ o! \
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s' O  z5 ~* S! I- S0 J5 c
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: H$ p6 W: W/ EAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan7 j, v9 C" ]( r% Y0 Z7 F9 a2 L
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced; l& t/ Y- {' j
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
/ L# p! M' W; vprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, v+ K! x( V7 m% U3 F, \though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
, Z5 {7 m3 @) G. P: o* i+ K, O  ron average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ m$ R* E1 `& [' ?1 mThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) X/ L1 ^1 U6 W7 W0 Z. g; oresale price in February is evidence that past prices0 r7 W2 H# H6 W7 b& v
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ U3 ?  e* t# r3 Whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) W. w( |! j% rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- k+ d+ }) S  wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%% Y2 E, j  I) z& w1 m" ?+ E: N/ ~0 `: G  Y
leg down over 2009.
0 G* k, K, x& t
* R6 o- Z% x2 Z5 k: d. H[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- k4 B9 J. F% P4 |' A! {" ^Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
9 H! t5 Y# Z/ ~1 r8 P6 {* `7 ]

! g+ [9 f/ c! \* _. Q3 C% y: p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
$ n# H" l: z" @9 E6 Z2 A% O翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子1 z4 Z* Y) U3 q/ s! c
! E1 X! e( @2 Y3 I; G4 J& t
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
" P! d5 G# K3 k, S$ Z: M, Q' e$ O  M& [, h+ P$ p" `
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-6-14 01:20 , Processed in 0.166984 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表