ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.

TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.

& C; N+ x9 p$ h. o  O1 O8 TThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.

7 O! B6 ^5 i2 ?( B9 |) ETD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
" N8 j+ Z2 g9 ~# a
, c$ k( {- o5 U2 b: ^, P" I"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.

* q. y0 e4 D7 z; B5 @TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.

) z  q$ @4 |& t' s6 `, J# ~http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

& n$ s7 @9 p. {! L7 A
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,

[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。

2 F7 K" S& L- ]4 \+ |) @* z3 v* _8 [[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

很多人都回学校深造去了
) P! F* U0 O# L+ c嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
( w7 |' b% f, cWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 v/ ^9 `) U$ h9 E, V( Iboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ k& W# Y3 J4 vfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
7 H/ l. |3 x$ Q& [& i3 vmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! E: \6 e# m: o, J' g1 W! V! `# tprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
7 ~: A/ U& `$ m) K* m5 Yto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 s8 I1 U) U' `  D5 M30,000 new households will form in the province during
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ Q6 s- M* G1 W1 CEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' q2 B/ u+ v, L5 U  ahomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
( l$ Q! L% ?$ D$ f! Jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 m4 U# n: |( vclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
# U. E- Y3 s. B. G4 {excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
( j  V! l3 t$ g1 H. s7 ~, xsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; ]/ E* H: l4 |5 h' z  tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
8 e% W6 b/ S% x" w0 A+ c2 {recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
! G! i8 |9 V! w, a8 z3 ~( S( lresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
; `1 `( O2 X- j0 r# i/ Hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) u/ T$ U! N4 g9 ^' Wrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
: Y& \. O- }/ |  _% Q. a, Cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ \3 r! ~' ]8 d& ]relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 U+ x8 S) s* Lon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
% O* Y, i: S7 j! F* m+ eThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' y2 W, r  \  }! \1 z( o- hresale price in February is evidence that past prices
, |4 ^: a' @% O9 G- p! d* kexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 Z- h$ n) {) B4 l" `. \/ n- }Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 e9 x  v" H" ]( ~' E; mleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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; y5 X8 a* w/ a) z% k[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
) f0 f6 k% `' w4 t/ k6 E1 N翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments

3 i+ `) H; ?/ K5 @$ }0 G& Y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing