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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.3 a& |& j4 R0 x# t4 x, X8 E  C

7 K$ j. n$ L" ^; Y) N* rTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ; V6 \$ l/ O, q9 }3 g' `
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. % A) P  D" z9 _% ]3 R7 d" R

! S& r7 @; ^* x# X/ uNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.# t; }) l7 o- e1 Y* T" B
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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: K3 K% {. i7 WTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 0 O. w. L- S; l5 z
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,, h$ X3 c/ {- x5 g( d, `
1 q% `" @4 ~5 V! A. Y$ _* B3 S
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。( V3 g1 ~7 y( e6 g9 g
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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# N6 i7 F6 }2 X$ f& H2 N[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 # M7 G: o7 A9 c
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

& T7 Y# Q/ Y- e( u0 u) }, E0 W很多人都回学校深造去了. }' J, Z5 @: Y0 {/ q. j0 B! X
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
: p9 N. K  f4 jWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) _0 ]; E$ c6 dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
) u, r& M4 g/ t$ y: h9 z. oare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- D, U) n. c! O# ^0 p2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) t( T7 T/ n: ~9 C% f: M8 y# G0 u+ N
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 l4 \) d) Z) Mfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
5 \- W. z$ ^8 C; m" ]( ^the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
% s) K1 T4 d0 h' zmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous' |) J) N0 |+ f, r& B+ K3 n/ W; `
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed" r0 }& B  U; d
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
6 x$ |2 t& h7 O* t8 pto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
! w  K0 h9 z0 y1 I. ~) R$ wprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this/ b0 N7 Q3 c; H5 j
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; y# u0 _1 h/ s1 C/ w8 J" @
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 o: S; Q; V! c, }30,000 new households will form in the province during/ c& |2 _7 v& G2 M1 r* p1 L2 J0 }2 N
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year." ^/ B$ g; s, A- Y0 F$ Z, B# k$ N5 E
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
5 v2 y4 J+ K8 _) v* {. |& w! Bhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
! o# {6 R6 z: O. v: |during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
4 u% @6 c/ @: W- ~" Nhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
' E- y" w$ {5 M4 m/ H" Hhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
8 J/ x- ?! ~* Q/ e" w3 f8 [during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: q2 T+ N0 ]( c$ h) M' y
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories0 J( x4 z& M! W" |4 G, p
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 o3 h7 d# q, H5 V! ~* Q4 |% n4 }
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
, L$ g  D7 s8 ]- Z0 }1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
" ~7 l) R4 B% h; _sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive  h5 f0 C' b# o6 ?" K0 e
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in2 w% I: x! b$ v* [- H
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 R# g  j1 G1 J" dunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747# t9 i) G  x7 L5 K$ ^) a' s/ J! y
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
  }- D' ~6 t3 q; t+ v+ Erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the3 S' p+ p  o/ [0 N  _- k
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 [2 d2 ?) N4 H0 g; Z5 D" H
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories! I. G# e- ]* c1 a% `1 e( Z
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 ]7 l8 @6 C; U1 L1 L2 }3 }6 F) |
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.3 m8 m% _' E! ~! ]: ~
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- \/ |/ g' X' @boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' q! g; u/ N* B( @4 l! hAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan; \; H6 y5 I  P' D: f4 W% K. D
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
: W2 v' E: Z6 Y5 ?3 Orelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 s/ p0 J* c" E( A1 _& f
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
2 C. a8 O3 Q1 Qthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 m0 M3 N; k; B
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
: O  e9 f& u1 C; cThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 o  p6 T8 L" f* y. Y- \
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
  u, [2 W  o( \' i$ }0 X+ [  Qexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove. w3 W) Z# U' }7 B$ _
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
: c, J" p. ?6 Q7 k; l; k( ddeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ [9 \6 v9 ?% o- }* w6 r% q8 ]
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%- B8 k) n- e3 r/ ?# O# L# l0 B
leg down over 2009.& I8 K# H: B$ G  i+ b% p5 I

) B- l, d) e" e  L' X[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  [! ~& ]( H9 h' `* s2 u
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
' z' d! q# ]( B: u, C3 {翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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