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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 3 q( [' N" u6 ~# e
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& C0 _/ \% t% L! q# H/ p0 j& I- Imiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. q1 X4 Z+ Z- k& N, |/ g/ p6 g
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
- L& c6 j6 e) \% Z; \# }according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
+ t6 V% R2 |- Q2 _) M4 w "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"$ t+ F5 L) P5 q+ a
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is* Z- X% g- a0 v3 Y" e) Z8 g1 Q
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! M3 r& s9 |4 vmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 `$ M( A1 L6 y. S& V) M+ V8 ]
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 _6 @3 E. o1 b
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
8 z9 n% R9 Z# bwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have* L7 U: R* A( C( b/ t
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.0 X$ K6 H8 D, g2 R( V
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the* Z ?; k! \( B! i* Y2 K
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
/ S6 {4 k# l( o9 j) |- @6 b) j2 `home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
/ `+ _" z: s# l% M9 O VAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the$ V: _2 p$ q' [, W; |0 v0 K1 g
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 G4 ~' G; w2 e: X# }
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* B. h& v. ^( C According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets. W* P8 k4 r9 t& e. H* d
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
" X8 T$ u% N1 U' L5 B) fthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 n8 G! [, C( I( }5 n) ?, ohistorically depressed levels.
" o/ |+ c" h5 D9 J+ @/ z Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
: j& U- D {8 `1 j& X$ `- \! b' @of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
" {, L+ ]/ V6 W7 d! k+ B1 aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
. W& h3 X; T: W( j3 D# U2 Ahands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 t2 w5 a2 k5 _- D6 l8 P5 |enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the/ L8 E, K+ r1 x/ Q) @: V
months ahead," added Hogue.
, \2 V9 c4 I+ s7 b2 d RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 n& o5 M: Z. b1 P* W8 b4 v! P8 v
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 |8 x" s7 ^! D H8 V, D% P
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent., g4 i, k/ c4 D, s% G4 \' ]$ y
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) b' X: e1 X! b3 aa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
3 F. U- ~* Z0 j+ mcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% _4 L6 J0 n, `( V- `9 O
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.( @# G) d& ?9 S+ Z
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" Y) D' ^4 k) `# |( _5 H% C2 n
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 h5 L [$ M+ p% Q' j4 [: d5 Mbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented, W j2 l7 ?) o
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
6 I- z& O7 m% P: n' ]condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.7 }9 t0 d H# C2 G' M
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership( ^) E) t; g7 {- f( v2 v) R% s1 m9 H6 L: Q
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ i' ]1 y( i7 ^5 |
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
x" ~6 X. \0 ~0 E& H$ V, T& ]" a6 B
<<& n) S" j( g/ {, K, n2 X/ s" C: {* u
Highlights from across Canada:0 c4 }$ A& k* q2 m
D( D N) _; i( i0 w1 M4 k
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has; w' d# |* H- `' e, r* t+ k
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing2 s' }& `/ C8 H. W( L, u( ]* E
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound6 R6 i, a& @( Q) M ]+ V/ J) U
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
! z u3 _& z7 {' }4 R5 E since about the middle of 2007./ @0 e* X, j1 S, g k, X* A
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
8 G( k8 Z6 U0 H0 y frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 I0 z1 `; ]4 u. z% l! |) D
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still$ y# M, x: h7 G
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
t0 G( z0 x7 E, P# n, M poor affordability levels.
/ f4 B( ?+ S$ B {. ] - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ A1 c5 U7 d. G( C" g
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 w6 d3 x' ~1 y/ S' `5 E, H
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
! R9 h. O7 C w0 o0 D# r Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to% g; z C2 U0 J$ T1 ?
minimize any downside risks. M( f# E# O* |8 s. _
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
' e5 m: J: a/ d, U; I* [. o4 ]& B: Y conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
4 W% I9 r2 d6 V! _ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
1 m, ]) g2 X4 K4 b% n 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly% G" k% |: s9 r! n+ @
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ r1 G0 s# d3 f' C
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in5 C* G; ]2 h4 }, H7 h2 e) }! j! o; ^
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus5 O2 K& E. l* `( `/ N1 \
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up; c$ U: \7 Q3 d% j5 d1 Z" Q3 r; W
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
$ ? M* q L9 A8 v7 X: i& K ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 p2 ~) K# T' j7 r modestly in recent years.
; I; g' q4 R; [* E - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* T6 X. ]% x- m# X9 @7 s
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ g7 t0 e. M& z* @; \ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
3 p: V. S4 V G+ i6 F. b+ I price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability( O8 ~: z1 y/ S
following two years of deterioration.
R2 x# _6 f8 C" ~1 e$ G5 K) J1 j+ r >> |
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