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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
2 Z) C5 ^/ a( Y/ X/ p/ @ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
8 s& U9 U; S' t/ d! b: ~middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive$ e0 o6 W0 ]* d% l
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
5 c3 A& E) k+ j; ^* a- ^$ w+ Y+ Aaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.7 T- ~! c) Q$ a
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( C: O+ b. L' [$ L- j1 o
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
; M1 ~! U j- q% \9 ^$ Wimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability$ G/ A5 y- ]4 H. `
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."' K/ F5 M4 D' z
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is8 w+ K' M9 ^) q! [- a9 X8 f
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,1 p& c4 a5 h* i+ d! \
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have+ \* }; F! W$ J3 L# n
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes., \: o' _) F/ L8 _1 K9 N' K! H, A
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
2 O# i3 D8 p) d( z% Aproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a( ?9 |' v0 D/ C' E1 F+ M1 j5 h
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
1 Y0 E( N/ d* v7 f! X; [6 jAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the$ ]9 w7 d; Y6 E4 ^& y. l2 d
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
4 n% ]" [( O; s9 @1 u! o+ L9 [the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.6 j. ~3 p& b# C$ _) X7 Y1 ~
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets+ W0 c: V- ~/ p1 d, k# |
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
1 k+ N2 V5 u( K# Q- O6 wthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at9 Z4 x+ e3 U8 T8 `0 u: H# B% W
historically depressed levels.3 O7 J# [: V2 F2 j
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
' B& c: L4 h: j2 y4 ^: iof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
1 R; [- s( X) L2 Cprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
S$ l# B! W+ m; }hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This# b L$ [; X% z, t
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
) U" P" o* M+ N$ A5 Mmonths ahead," added Hogue.
4 Y5 u v0 K; R) Y5 ]* w/ r) o* S RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
# t/ O4 y4 C/ b5 L& E8 D1 c7 r) Ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
A; H9 M* X8 \6 G/ t& f42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.% h& ^% \3 _! S% w' h7 p
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for$ Z7 L X: U$ H" i0 k
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these" n* q7 Y- T. ], _+ ^2 ~
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
$ M& ?& l6 Q. u2 z% P$ w: Ftakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.' x' P3 M P& X1 U) O: d
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is: A+ s# D2 ?4 c. s; z
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
* {* z- u8 s+ ^, B( p; I+ Ubenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
/ B0 ^( T- Z* X5 \ dincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
& |( K' u$ o; A% T# R5 bcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.1 I4 y1 E0 l# L/ }) @% c
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership, d" w4 W9 ~, U
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50" y' E0 F) J: L q7 f
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
( S* {+ z/ d* `. |1 J
% l: V4 }8 D* p4 ?: |% ` <<: }$ E- d' \" y( d0 f" d- k
Highlights from across Canada:
) I0 a, p/ s. i4 {7 h" n4 ~+ g
( e4 g0 ]( c6 {8 U$ D- w% E - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
1 u) L5 F4 \% ]' j intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
0 O7 l- M8 x" o5 ` home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
* E0 V9 _+ g- I! g2 [2 n& t only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track. ^3 W& e/ d8 t8 w% ^8 x0 G
since about the middle of 2007.+ r; j/ e0 ~4 |$ f
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* t/ {5 V) W3 \+ b: y
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
5 t2 u5 O( b, o1 _) V& d! q decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 W# M2 {$ `' P7 [) L% W& H largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( j! o# W+ X) z4 E
poor affordability levels.
6 j$ v# k/ s) R# q" D7 B7 y3 { - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the' S* g0 u1 _" \+ y
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
' i; ~ I5 k, ^ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" H5 q$ |0 a; R: ? Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
" C) e* f/ z; B, h% V minimize any downside risks." `6 u% D: t6 T/ i8 q8 n$ A
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market7 y% H# X3 `2 D
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
5 U" E2 h% K( G7 Q% W unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
! `. K% J5 ]1 x( F, m; J$ \ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly- j& L, f; |$ \/ W& m p
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.* |5 f3 `9 z4 [9 t
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# V2 b, e2 o3 F _ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ U# h- m7 N! Z+ q* Y+ o far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
4 F H* q) {% F. v reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 L' p5 o% R; H# x4 q- b
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
; F! C+ @/ Y0 l! g* }; F* m modestly in recent years.- g1 p+ g" V |5 n9 N/ J( `
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) s/ @' [0 q0 p/ ~& v/ p8 M; t
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
4 h' I; [9 N; q6 Z8 a" V spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
& y4 U* a& V( p( u. s2 h price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability. e; Q# T/ n8 C0 L
following two years of deterioration.
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