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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # G: n- e/ v l; b! q) H
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the* |2 L! z# @; o: P ]- Z9 n3 V L
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive( h4 [$ a, s* b
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,2 `& b6 q) I1 o- s8 n. R9 U
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." a q1 i. H5 n' Z5 C
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& x1 i2 b; f# B% I, Gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" }! p) j' b. Wimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability* c2 D" Q/ H9 X8 H% l
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."6 {: }$ A) O- I( x( f
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
: i/ [" E! ]6 v% I7 n3 Uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 d# v- }% @+ G4 {! s+ w
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
1 o( b8 n5 g7 R$ ksustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.5 U6 `% e. E2 _0 _; A# E5 i$ s
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the+ Y' U3 {) _- ~2 T' }2 x
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a0 R" r# T6 P, e7 G& \8 y2 f+ t5 s) F$ T
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
6 Z/ U& o7 X+ D7 E& }' @. D6 f) ^Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
6 C# }' n6 g1 Z3 ]: ]2 |8 Ostandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
. U$ b1 D' r" \the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
& ]7 |1 r. f' u' a, W: ? According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
% d4 l! K2 J9 q) } S1 ]# Qmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in4 Y( j- e" ^5 S' v+ M0 |
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
7 ^( D3 ?+ F1 t H+ }! M2 mhistorically depressed levels.
& } M0 l5 c/ a2 [# s Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost0 p9 F4 Y% B) p, O! S, P: g0 I; S) |
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; O4 K6 X# I& g$ f% Pprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the7 S; m, g/ J. x5 n; _; j4 x4 Q8 G ]% K3 T
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
! q- n: U' s9 L' ~/ \' P7 \enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the" f- S) K; Z5 ]# W* `
months ahead," added Hogue.
' H" v5 Q2 T2 e; F RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 a8 I+ `% [" I. X$ I
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ ]6 {" ?, |3 x" l( r42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ a9 ]$ u; ]' p) w' v( y4 b The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) u8 w) O* A" a- Pa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' ^/ a1 p' F# _# a# a4 Ccities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
. a H. `1 F( s7 f/ G0 Ytakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.; \& K$ k: B9 p
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
" R3 C3 M* [6 }based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 `4 U, t" O! Sbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented0 B8 Z0 U/ q% C" y+ L4 d) o
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
4 h( e* j' p5 ?8 s8 A1 @condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
$ k0 B7 w" F d# x% wFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
2 E1 K% u. C1 M7 K h1 f( ] mcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
& e% X; S7 Z9 }1 v% Y( Z: L- z8 ?) p" W2 r7 {per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
7 A8 y( F5 ?- ^# i5 W: v. n/ z3 {# k
<<
) t0 O' |+ J/ ^( Q Highlights from across Canada:
1 _! T7 g: |! f6 S# G' s* \8 ~: p" E) d; M* J k$ i
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has. _. ?0 n/ {& Z$ j
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing: `: T" ~/ H2 E' Y* ]
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- m7 ^2 t! U3 p8 v8 A5 H& O only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track2 ]8 z, r6 S5 D; K$ R! V5 ?
since about the middle of 2007.
0 l+ g5 f; d; }& U - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% K& g/ p; ~5 W5 c ]) m& o4 r
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& u5 e5 [( K. n decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
9 g$ ?+ [/ P3 Q. Z5 M% z* _ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely# k8 ]$ g6 n8 s( U4 J
poor affordability levels.
% X/ Q" ?/ `' m: D! y! S - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the, [. t- p0 B3 l8 a: T
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
5 \5 y1 @" t. b/ o9 F" N4 T8 S prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
: s$ k& u& K/ k. t+ P7 p* O8 i7 J Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
& e1 \4 C+ S/ z8 e" {( E0 s: d minimize any downside risks.
. x! S3 }- A7 l }2 q - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market r0 v# ? q+ Y& u- j
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) r, O3 d* t8 n2 n
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early& G/ t* M4 z B# W% O' o
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. t! G. @( ?. c
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ t8 U/ Y/ C0 N; z+ o
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
6 ^2 _1 I1 R$ v9 f) f) `2 l Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus/ I3 W$ |9 z4 [/ Z+ ?" _4 J' v
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up( T y, L9 l- z( i- @/ ~' c' q( i
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
+ e" }- ]( U% A8 s# s# m ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
& `& X5 g h% q. }3 j# h. o modestly in recent years.
% c1 ]5 S) Z* W* e - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
4 c' w: [7 |( O% N c general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot& u4 }6 ~5 [+ f, o) P0 [& z7 ]' ?
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
& r6 z1 g- I! R3 U [4 ]7 m price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
) W1 { ]: d- a9 g) X following two years of deterioration.* ^- y4 l7 b% |5 }+ q; M
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