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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 3 \3 f. B0 \0 y6 \( ]
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the; R/ O$ B1 ]* t& U
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& x9 k, G, I; h a2 v$ m
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,0 R, D& o( }. A ]7 ~8 q
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.1 l7 s/ m$ Y. {
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
1 F/ E' ?* p5 J9 o6 _3 hsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% ~8 \# c& C8 x5 V; ?! _$ q8 y
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
7 ]1 h4 D" P" o- M7 w: kmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ @( x' c, V; [2 C# k) W# s RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is; d7 U9 x9 i9 c3 K' U' W" Z
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 ?+ T! P, B# m f4 ?& @" Q
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have6 s. w9 ]9 L& q* j/ W
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 L# ?9 ?' z# u; \3 R% A The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 w5 |5 g* n5 y- Bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
& l& q; N3 K8 Q! ^1 S* _home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ l1 C& w9 L+ |5 Y2 F- bAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
1 O( g5 P ~$ zstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
- ~! z8 _ @) g Z# o/ o' Gthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.6 x& R y; `8 H4 u2 A
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
' d( D" E- d5 v4 w& W0 x9 l- q% kmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in% ^9 G9 s, C' s( V7 ?
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
' }' i+ `/ |6 a% N4 bhistorically depressed levels. x2 c" B6 e5 y) N- ~9 k
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost4 ~$ J- J" G p# c2 e% m- I
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House: t: @ K6 E2 T% j) v) E
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
; }9 e6 j5 ?: {hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This: A) D+ y/ I3 K: ^) C! R: ?: `
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the3 m5 S1 ~5 j1 T K
months ahead," added Hogue.- \0 B4 t: l" r R/ D
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
& a8 Z7 @5 u6 O+ W( \, tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
) ^0 k' w8 a: V3 I42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.$ z# `& @0 X5 I' J! N7 e( L
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
9 ^$ a$ ]; [; ]% V; Ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these) u6 c, C+ A) m, H
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
" y5 P) }# r7 q. M# Ctakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
3 t3 R9 h N+ e* I! C0 s" a* v) n The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
& O6 V3 w/ ] }; E1 Rbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
3 {+ m" r% g& t! lbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
. H1 n$ J$ F0 s: Z* p! X( ?including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard0 }! p! U" m7 t8 J" S6 _2 P
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
" C0 B8 n% P) yFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership7 \6 }& M0 V* f" _1 W6 J8 \
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
( r5 \, i; \( Gper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
+ _7 o! v- Z$ } t9 ?
L0 P; W. M7 f( [0 k. m* ^+ Q: j- W <<$ a8 `+ @" a" N+ D, R
Highlights from across Canada:
6 H+ T) [: D& i6 G7 B$ {6 e# h+ X* A& w8 \5 l. h) P
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has7 c6 n3 B; w. N) p8 ?/ Y* H
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing2 \4 m& p; M" i( L) ^% T
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound. }1 }! G4 K. ~: r0 t
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track- W; A( X) s9 f/ n6 n
since about the middle of 2007.
! b7 b% w( h; Q) O& j; l - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
1 t4 Z/ B# x+ A2 N/ z frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# @* o- a4 x0 y" t+ a! Z0 q. D0 {
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
& i# ?$ a8 P$ E9 h. Z7 T largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely r6 Q/ A- q$ x R
poor affordability levels.
/ z$ x. e" _) Z0 z# j - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& e" \" J$ [- w* q6 T% R vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
( b/ O! | S1 |' Q8 O prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly., r' i- z, s+ h1 i
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to4 X+ l! R j$ o6 |$ |. P. T6 o3 r
minimize any downside risks.; _- X+ M9 Z I
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
/ |/ b' p* v& |- Y conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. I1 ~4 w8 q3 a! |5 j2 m unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early2 f% C! s4 m* i; y
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly* d! s2 t, I4 |+ O
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
, n" W, b% }* K' g/ y2 E$ z' q - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in9 [4 i N& D6 s7 ~3 h: Q/ L
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
! h$ F0 g8 R. \2 w- ~ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
% ~0 S5 [0 G' C' [- z reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 ]( N- I/ _* c! k
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 E$ O9 S2 p2 U7 u modestly in recent years.
) }3 A4 V+ K/ t5 y - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
4 V2 z; U5 c. k% b; R% [( w general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
; r6 y+ m9 ~7 s0 ^- S spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward2 _9 x; _) X; W: V' K2 c) |
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability1 f* T: m1 K/ P4 J) W5 N5 H: K( O1 E* J
following two years of deterioration.# W4 ?. H: R5 P3 c l
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