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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
% f3 U! D. c6 ^7 z5 t TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
0 D- D+ }6 g Q! f) x4 [5 I" gmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive2 k: p, z, X. @
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
w. R/ i+ r* k! D. D- M; q7 z2 Vaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
6 \2 t+ w" ~4 Z; ?8 r "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& F0 t0 h. o* W- psaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is; ^3 T2 w6 s8 x9 L8 W/ s: R( {
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
- z( o- X# R6 [' o# j& F# v) J7 tmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."- o9 Z' @( K5 b3 K7 R, M
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 i) m# K- h* { Z
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,0 i$ N) F# S. s) ]
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have3 _$ J7 m8 Y$ n
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.8 r' J0 o) r5 M3 B0 ]2 Q
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the5 g. ?( |& B: z9 E. }" ?
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
% b. y' y' y9 u8 Rhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
8 |, n, v4 E4 c5 l1 | T* }& GAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the: E7 g( F0 ?. h. A
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and; q4 g+ ]9 r- l9 I/ a
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
# ?4 E. j. d4 K$ T) \. }. u/ h According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: b) a, g& @2 ?3 \) R7 `2 Hmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
7 \. i4 N5 Y/ I; A9 u9 rthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
$ E! `; ?) Q* s; Z9 z' y) m0 x+ whistorically depressed levels.
/ K& q) e* _! `! E* W: J Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost. s7 H; \( }4 ]/ Z; E
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& M; b; \7 [; T2 b9 v! e
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the1 D5 X- k& m; V& ^
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This" S) p6 H- B6 K1 @
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the7 I* \7 Y5 { K1 ?
months ahead," added Hogue.
% i0 T" e( P# d1 R3 q& D# F# x RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 x) V! h! s0 G* T& j$ Jcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 R0 i/ l, n2 X0 ?$ ]' [
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
9 P1 k m( Q' w k2 ^" ` The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
5 X; U! N! s/ S" \" [a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
! F/ N! g2 V- p/ Ycities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only* x1 |" C e8 z! ?
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) g8 n+ ~! x7 r3 k8 c The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
# V \4 r3 \5 D% J8 d7 @0 d" Sbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property; p9 |! e4 @. d A# P+ C' W, k
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented% k! _- l$ P! r
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard+ h4 o; q$ X$ a; |' P
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home./ ~" i0 L: w% u1 [% J
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
5 ?2 }. E' \, ]% C0 |costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% t/ i$ t; A# w N- B2 p
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.; y; t& ?! c$ p) o
! ]2 [) k# |. L; U <<) ]' r5 e: t* a* m& o2 W n
Highlights from across Canada:
* A; @# o: Q0 L* J4 {6 {
% m3 r% C. A$ K4 k5 T - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has% r5 |$ u' J- ^) K5 J
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
- G# H1 P+ v% p$ ]/ l home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound k$ v( ]7 p" G0 V& z0 ~, h* m
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track8 P7 S. i. l d2 N' B7 @+ F- E! D
since about the middle of 2007.
y+ T- L$ J! x - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
h! h2 Y/ N# \% z/ l frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
9 J( U' }0 o1 {7 }: r# h6 O7 A decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still g: E" J! ?& c8 |& j/ o' d; S
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
& _) o% h% u: D& q/ h/ r0 D$ k9 B poor affordability levels.+ y7 {7 J1 l) x" v7 O
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* o+ y, N T, Z1 a" J/ [+ |
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
2 y- y0 k. w. y- Q+ I# @3 I9 U4 u prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.9 c. {. U2 x# }
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to: y0 b9 W* G- g# o% b
minimize any downside risks.& n" @/ f2 ~- f) R
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market) `5 j2 R9 o1 I1 M2 V
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
; R" ~& c4 i! A3 g3 z" l unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
0 U! h9 V, ^9 J! V9 \ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
* w8 L, \% O+ m5 P2 a. O& [2 W being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) e/ _& u9 N- _' s& x( s - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! L2 A$ ]( ^6 |4 s Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus; K/ U0 S3 K) s- y% \4 d1 l. Y
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. R( P! ~9 d/ I* F a7 ?6 z8 O reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be x8 z' `8 p4 N$ }6 L
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only7 E* N6 x0 y: F
modestly in recent years.
4 n v* e7 T& l' ?! U7 { - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the! C) O. W( u4 l2 Q% c
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ ^$ J$ _- R0 H% e4 t" P8 e spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
) i& }; Z+ I& e( y1 L6 ` price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
8 d9 M2 k2 o9 a1 ~ following two years of deterioration.4 u; F, o9 z! L) f4 i1 W! T2 V
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