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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ! e- p6 i: `6 |! B
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 F0 b7 a2 T7 {
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
, P9 I; v; ]$ s" ~6 y. y# ]gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,' [2 E6 w! p1 f* F* {
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. n; U. \6 v5 t3 W! C# y6 B
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"% o) h$ g! k- L+ @0 b2 B4 C3 V
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is. E/ ~( y5 _0 D+ Q/ E
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 c+ P W! W8 ]6 T- l& w8 P- Mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
- Q* H& b9 P L RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is: D: K. B( J" j% C
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,) {) s' W, F5 \9 k" d* s, g5 T4 f9 q
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, M+ s s8 c- Z# Y; asustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.. S; |- K) W' \: A4 y, X
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: C, a+ i6 b: Z& Q$ v& pproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
e$ y( a+ t) k" K5 p( |% Mhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
" t/ B. G- v# `9 ^Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the9 [4 w& U9 ?' m1 C% k- q
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ f) @2 M. H9 Y0 l
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.; d, L9 d' D+ H X2 |" P! G, R8 o
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 h' \6 @: k$ H8 w) ~, q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) d( T' i1 i- H0 `* l7 Z% Cthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at/ n) v& T$ Q( O# {# Q: a
historically depressed levels.
# C2 w+ s- M s2 h0 H% ]1 Z Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ i" _- J& V# d) o. oof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House7 I, n4 ^6 A3 o8 f& v
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
3 ^1 R1 y* n' }hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This) w9 N3 I7 [6 G& U+ X
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
3 A r( `5 C: c- `3 }( T8 xmonths ahead," added Hogue.
: n# c6 Z7 T" ~4 L RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, X4 t$ u: I9 k. e2 _, a1 Rcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
9 D$ Z6 Y& Z% v$ h" m42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
8 h. W: {' u8 ~! q The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
- z& K; s3 u; h8 l' b+ H, za broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these" t) P; g0 ~3 j' ~8 E" {6 z
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only- x5 M- y9 ~3 @; Y* g# J1 L
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.0 Z6 @" Z1 a% F4 a3 r- S4 \9 B0 R
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is6 l8 r4 F' C$ ^* L) c
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& O* h; C# V* V9 E- p4 h
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented/ s) D- x8 y$ S+ d5 P# |7 {7 U+ g% O
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
8 h) A7 y- l4 V. o# }( Y5 _condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
; \. i' _% V! N( _; TFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership# f+ }8 @* f5 {/ ?- b
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
. A0 W$ t: B1 S( l0 {0 [* o7 Lper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.# l2 L$ T+ K8 ?% i2 O Z" ]
1 ^7 ]6 P) T- u }! p- o) R <<. v' [; B9 P' c4 |) T6 s' p1 u9 @2 A
Highlights from across Canada:6 J/ b7 _3 U A
7 V4 ^( h- G: ?4 I) E: I5 I
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) S8 R8 f9 p) i1 i# Y2 F
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ i ?, a0 Z3 f home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
! N! y# \2 k! _6 V only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
/ B- E* `1 @4 e* F6 A7 @ since about the middle of 2007.
4 L2 v6 r1 J3 w8 X - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
6 C/ ]( R: X7 l; F/ [8 F frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
3 B' `% k0 E2 R9 a. v& \6 ] decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 l( a: ^3 {, s# `2 ? m largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
8 v% Q. P$ d6 I2 k+ o poor affordability levels.4 N0 A |* f- ]/ c) t: m6 z
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
/ x7 f+ K, `% a" x3 A0 S& E2 ~! D vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: @. `# q' n) h3 c; w' ] prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
# z/ t9 B5 _6 T Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 Q& ]# d/ y8 q E! i' y
minimize any downside risks.
# a' a+ j2 [" U8 K+ K/ u4 M - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market: l+ p% U7 E; s% v; d
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
- K4 Y6 ]- e1 ? unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
9 Z5 C, Q4 i- d8 _% k8 p* o 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly" J7 G3 z3 P' O% w
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages. D. f6 h% b: _$ G! }# |. w
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
3 j3 w3 F1 q6 @0 c' e4 a Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
8 ?+ _. ?' M! p( q# {" M3 z far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up! g. _# L: s- K
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
0 o l4 f! C ^3 n! V6 N ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
' Q: K3 @- y; f1 D" q1 [ modestly in recent years.- p5 b% |8 ?; d; r
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' K) Z ~: }$ d6 {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ i+ A$ p2 s, Y- r# D7 W spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward/ r* A/ Y. ^- e/ r/ ]1 Z
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability# ~' G2 P8 ?& q" \5 \
following two years of deterioration.
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