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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC , w9 F; i; |1 i, X4 B' j
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ U, \ |2 U$ z) u- N, p9 T1 Z
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ S2 S0 c; ^! u/ c6 X
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
9 S3 J! J1 X" J2 caccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics./ s1 ]( a5 Y& @1 D
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
% c% f) B7 ]0 H' Xsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" h. r8 s) @' x0 Z# ^; S1 Uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability+ U$ d/ b1 o& T) Y* n
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 z9 l1 z- g9 c) E6 i$ o% B7 G
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is6 o' d$ {+ i& J" J8 n% K8 S
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 K9 \' \3 d2 G0 mwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
. B* g3 Z) n, ~2 Z1 D* ^/ msustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) q4 O! A4 R) R3 P The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the0 I( Q1 R. C8 _8 z
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a9 b: {2 e" v( A- `, d) f
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.) `) T+ W8 _6 h u+ R _# i% x2 N
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
+ {0 P! X0 a9 [standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
% k$ W3 a1 o/ s5 X; g* N1 R& A- bthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent. _) Z2 I: v. a2 \" I2 X
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
9 b1 s4 }3 B. Omay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
* K) m% T. m2 V% w% sthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
+ m3 j/ P5 E: r/ g& _ Thistorically depressed levels.* c7 o7 U+ ~3 Z7 [2 J. s" q& J# M/ b
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
+ b( o _! g6 z l, ^6 _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House6 [) f' B4 b1 Y2 ^9 S8 V$ l7 e
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
3 t! Z& v# l b4 k. r( F& Nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
3 ?. I3 g0 O8 l1 Y; j$ v9 K$ x# Senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the/ e5 e U4 P, n0 o6 u3 h4 I
months ahead," added Hogue.
6 n5 f7 p) B$ X. D) y2 o& l/ N2 f3 n- V9 W RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
8 l9 q' v+ |! I. [8 T7 ~cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary. f% Z. d1 P$ K' e
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.! n i( G( Y0 D8 r% ]. e
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for0 @( g2 T# X4 }
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
* o- s! h) d4 o4 Pcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
+ e# `( m: J7 ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
4 y4 y, V% }6 c- n- H, o9 O6 }: p z! } The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
- L5 z& C' G$ f- @* l* Ebased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property$ {3 k9 z2 Q }( u# v3 U
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
9 z& _5 n+ N q) Zincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard# ~; F& s' m$ w
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
" }1 t5 g B3 u9 M) x& F. U LFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 m4 o; L1 h1 z& i; j" n4 g3 Qcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50- A/ H! |: ?+ m8 T, {4 E
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
+ c+ n# T( u* a, D
9 f/ [* ?! @0 w( D <<
8 O# }/ F, V% X& T Highlights from across Canada:
+ c: u3 |9 I+ l
4 `& J" b4 F: ~, A - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ @% u4 u2 P1 ?( \& i0 Q intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
M4 _. j8 x, p/ \% B$ W* V+ }0 ~1 `0 P home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
7 }2 ~8 [9 P8 u* C only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 s/ j9 H( m! j% t since about the middle of 2007.
* J6 j: Q, H. x& r - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
) s. C: r# b& W frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to4 h6 s( V B1 t3 ?4 B* F
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still2 }& x+ D7 @3 P+ {. Q4 p. Y
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
1 k( A5 m" N6 i. y+ v poor affordability levels.* o4 s& F& e/ D$ P# e; B2 C/ C
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the; l) `0 { s' D
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 s4 f1 g! \' G% A' w4 d! C9 o& w prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 H7 M8 o9 K7 H6 _( s/ z( v
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
7 [9 t% r4 a1 m; T% k minimize any downside risks.
G. v# a- @5 I- }7 z3 ]1 ? - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
% p9 Q* X7 N5 Q7 }' L6 Q+ o# W conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
" F6 f* i# l6 u, q) i- ] unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
, R& g& U% h" |8 G 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly; m8 }$ Y5 O' {/ {
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.4 }- x+ J1 U- @& J/ n0 N
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in+ x8 f$ ] Y" Z& `7 A. P/ x
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ x' `/ v) |3 u3 v far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
" g! R4 V* U/ r8 G1 P, H1 ^& i reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: Q! Z5 X1 L% `3 e ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only/ ] Y3 h; x' a& o- e& N, t* |6 q2 A
modestly in recent years.0 i5 c& _4 ]+ {2 d, C) a8 N
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the0 ` F& |3 U! t' O; N0 t
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% [, V4 K# J& g+ b2 s
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
2 x! M$ ?1 H6 @! X/ W( X+ c, j price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability0 a0 m2 {: h6 p( |& |
following two years of deterioration.
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