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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
% E. D9 k+ p" a1 z TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
' s: _4 p) K3 m8 Ymiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
( h, o- m$ S3 T% a+ {gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
- }& |0 i! Z' _& b' H5 _according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
1 `0 A4 L# s5 {0 f" M3 K "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"4 s B. z2 u- o- T0 d
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
1 I- a6 c7 L) A6 X, zimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 x! |8 L; l8 O! A: R: I5 l' r
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! Q6 i0 H( u9 g1 i6 y
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* T! b! C! l& P- X( jworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
0 E' P3 y, s# U2 ?+ x# D/ nwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 H. S. q# E/ k
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
& x8 d T& I. ]! T& R' P) }$ S The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the Q3 l- T c- M$ k; q/ Z
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a6 d5 C, @" g" c, B+ t
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
5 I0 F7 z4 h! }1 s; l) ZAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the1 \+ D/ X" p `' c( s
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
( A7 z/ q# @! Ithe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
/ d- o$ o( i5 b+ R- S8 t/ C According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) m* a! H6 k1 X
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
5 D g- r+ H2 H1 i( a1 \the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at" {3 Z- |0 B" I0 Y: z s
historically depressed levels.
$ h2 K% a5 W$ k; _" T Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost" w, V7 K' B3 V! I+ x
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
0 u# r5 {5 R( v0 z( i1 g1 aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the; `/ W& w' F) |- b) @
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
9 m. c% \: J. H. jenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
* f% m \1 B/ B3 }; @5 M9 cmonths ahead," added Hogue.3 Z6 X% J, A* b6 p; D7 c5 l
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
% r q% K5 J+ r1 Q4 S% S6 J* }cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% l2 H0 s' E9 S) m) Z# d3 l
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.7 b, ^/ b: L, e$ h1 Y% [
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* }& H. v8 g- C3 r) U4 H
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
8 ?" r- |% N0 I" B0 \* m$ Tcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
% |/ i7 ~5 V$ I5 d$ _* P( D! G) D0 O7 Otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.$ |/ ?. b6 q. L4 k' v
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is% W J9 _. |5 l$ v' i+ V
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property" Y4 B8 k; p" L$ C/ [
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented1 w! H1 L5 L9 U( D+ i4 z
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
1 k8 {2 S1 B. M; Mcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 E/ L; x- B+ ~. g8 J D) RFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership* j' q4 K' Q& s( `- _8 a2 l8 Z# \7 z/ J
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 500 Q) L/ M4 ^/ z1 w4 c: ^
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
3 M8 _2 Q3 S% U8 w w
" N6 N, n, N4 j9 x1 g <<
: i1 I N- b4 }7 c Highlights from across Canada:3 r- @: D2 w3 b3 z# e' G' h4 Y, D
9 c" k% q. X) _& Z
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' p) i# \: e. W- a J% A
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 ?' k+ _+ `! U9 j+ S6 e3 i
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound1 f4 b3 Q6 W1 {- V
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track. B) `. }9 V# f9 O% D- X
since about the middle of 2007.
' p' B5 u- T6 N3 t" g0 Y E - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
; A7 ?( F0 M' G9 R* Q, s" u. B frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& b! c6 J: l& I0 R9 i. D$ w+ a) R( M& i decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
5 V% L8 f6 Y8 g largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( R8 K9 D( {# K: v. ` x" F
poor affordability levels.
C I7 q' C1 t. C# d, D - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& T, A+ A* ]- G& L+ u4 f" M0 O vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 p, [: S5 i$ X( J' H; w$ _# Z
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
: G6 \ s$ A( n- D& ~ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to! h: O$ {" h* t, G: [: }: U/ D
minimize any downside risks.
- T* [+ D( ]3 s' B6 m5 I8 P' ] - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! {. X( t4 H6 T8 Q7 h, ~
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
! d/ E% w/ Y0 J" O unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early' ?1 l' K. q* m5 E
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly! ]' b8 \0 Z& Q' m
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.* j+ h* J# f7 W0 ~1 f
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in& F; l' L+ S2 Q1 ]) e+ O- {
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus* O( t- G4 S8 u7 W9 x5 U! M9 e
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, Y# P3 a. e1 h
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
& E4 u: u/ i, `" q" W7 A ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only2 I! L. Z4 A, C( V7 I! \8 p/ Z& u
modestly in recent years." s$ U- H* H5 B8 i" _/ R
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the4 M: p/ X0 W/ j+ M
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot @$ t2 Z( K1 p0 Q6 ?
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
4 S% X( F2 |4 t9 p price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability) z1 q7 e' j/ [# s5 x, g8 J# n
following two years of deterioration.+ O( K% @+ U, ^5 I$ n; a% Y- N
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