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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 1 T& r6 ?( J: O& ^8 M* Z5 R
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
- |% R: b8 A" H, o% [) K* H# vmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive$ P0 y. m9 X: ~& P, l H
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
( f# i# K( z& t( r8 Y! \7 ]! z, X' c9 Faccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.( F# ^) ?/ z8 T- \! t
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"& W! p T3 Z* `+ P4 W
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
) x1 M) N z, j) M7 P; m9 z; Dimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
4 Y. @$ r+ s0 Wmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
7 O3 A1 c3 L$ t2 ^# V- T, w RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
# v! ~2 u# q* U# F N1 F) |- kworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, F0 f' m: i+ q* Swhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 c |- `5 ^8 e- \. |! ?, k
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
8 f! V4 {6 x1 n" }! r$ X( E. H The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
, A" H9 H5 Z3 B8 Bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
/ Z. n' o6 R" h0 Ihome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
' ]/ A& W1 M2 s) P" T2 V8 IAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the8 G, S( E0 B5 }9 \/ b
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and$ `2 H X/ G% ^8 W( b
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.6 i7 ]7 k( y$ `1 g
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
9 e( Z! o+ D) j7 n4 F" y8 v( c2 j9 K+ E$ Ymay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
! i) h5 `5 @! \the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at! E; ^1 o# X3 }" z! Y
historically depressed levels.- g1 N# X' m5 a
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ u; j. g" @: Y' x. Iof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
' W7 x2 Q' q! B( R$ r& [7 H% o _prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" O6 A: M2 @% b- rhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
3 M! t3 t$ b6 [7 z7 F& y2 venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the7 S- W# h: B- z z6 w" D% n, q& j: |
months ahead," added Hogue.
' U& S3 W8 _, p7 g% ? RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest; L# k5 c& i" ^/ u, P* r2 F
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary5 ]6 u$ @/ h5 X( Y
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- ?7 ?+ f+ H8 h+ U1 o9 r, X9 \ o2 X% y The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
6 P4 U, n3 x; h* o3 `3 ?* J; Z! Ba broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
! [6 O! d# [1 }/ C! dcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# u# b F: |7 L) i4 d7 G8 d
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
; ~, W3 `1 p' {4 a- v# z% a# ? e6 Y The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
8 ^' e z: [( D. \) {' E7 ^: Ibased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& X5 j+ [: b# N& u: n r# r
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
* j8 ^, b3 k, ]* ~& rincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard; \: w4 O/ t$ A& O
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.0 W ~, Q3 t6 @
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership; A3 |. Q5 `- x5 [/ n$ |' f$ ?
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
P# ]2 R6 o6 G8 K- j3 ^( P3 sper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.! x% A! p+ X' z! S" q
' [/ S8 ~( g- x1 J
<<
u' P$ D) t! M* N Highlights from across Canada:7 p) F3 m( [! }/ H: {7 X
, N: L& v# n" a0 r6 t. o - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
K' |1 y( I! I5 d intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
% K5 {" d5 z2 H0 A* f. Q home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% l& u' N, n9 ~9 S& f7 E# H) @: d3 L only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track3 v; u. z) `* u1 ?2 o
since about the middle of 2007.- c' r$ G; ^4 b
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the5 x# x: h9 m S u4 d5 e
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
2 n: P8 |" D8 W* g5 ]! Z- T decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still/ x1 H8 O$ p- D' v! _* a
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely6 T2 B E. M5 i2 f" R, z
poor affordability levels.2 G) a3 K) o* V, |
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ Y f3 \0 l3 G1 C vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and; N8 w7 R( m) c+ O- r: L/ ?
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ [2 F% p0 A. J, { Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
/ S( e0 U( L% y5 W0 s minimize any downside risks.
& Y2 Z3 @* Q0 X, F - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
0 ^: v" K; T+ l* y; O/ k conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is4 ?0 F5 ], O/ H0 ]3 z) A W
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early3 x3 c* `" R4 }8 w$ x! i2 W
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 w8 a+ `2 y) z being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
7 H8 ?0 y5 b4 n: s% V8 {' j - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in& y2 o9 \' r4 C
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
# _% x6 K4 {3 [4 q7 S0 Q1 l+ V; U far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
" s6 Z% I7 X2 q6 @0 ]2 d% f reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
2 n+ n7 T, {; v; o; l% x8 W ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 [. H7 C9 N' G J! t$ E
modestly in recent years.
; b- h, j; O- I9 u0 {7 i - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
- W! K+ J* A1 h' N6 k# z* }3 M+ K general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot& K' X- \0 q6 E: N+ \
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
( F- u$ `( _* J8 g/ e$ W$ Z price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
% f% @- z5 q3 V following two years of deterioration.
* B. P1 J0 {- r5 I3 ?8 U >> |
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