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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
# T* a! K, a1 o% T5 i& E- [ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
0 t$ p* H) G2 amiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
& E1 ^! o7 _' z" y2 Y3 wgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
& |& o! c) W7 Taccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
$ u: F. s2 J9 f: g* d& x "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' U4 ]" W2 Y! }9 O. Qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is q, R: V2 H# ~
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
6 P8 S- R) ~& cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 E1 k2 ~* ]7 O6 \7 }/ Z$ u/ U" l
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
0 x4 n* Q( U2 k" l6 M5 c8 @+ X* pworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 F; E6 P3 u8 F4 fwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
; l. j! v% ]2 D [sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
/ w9 ~$ h# q$ k; w The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: `: D! k; U) o5 h( Uproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
& W& C+ b2 w% j8 e1 Q: ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: C: H* h3 e0 k- xAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the4 Q5 K" o* n" H
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
+ o# Q( m8 M! G* U4 E" {the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.: B$ A, S9 k' b9 D# @: @4 q
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets6 t- ]8 H8 p" u: ]5 H9 O
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in2 W. Q. A. N: L: C) Y; s6 \4 x
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
* R& [; l% B1 `( R- |historically depressed levels.- b2 b. |* F7 f! t
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ `, m) P8 W' oof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
' I8 X- G8 a; E5 mprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the! Z7 G# r' c6 ?$ T5 x
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
; S2 r. o5 F+ L5 N, C$ q+ I; ?0 `4 Venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the: F% I* H! A: }, K$ K( ~2 n
months ahead," added Hogue.& ?1 |) j& Q1 z" S
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest- @4 `* e/ q1 c. J
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary r5 w* L& B" k2 a8 r
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.) s, b- S% t! C& l/ e0 Y
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for9 z. ~5 j" v+ @/ }; e- E3 n6 g
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
) g( O' O/ | X7 z" Ocities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
0 w1 V1 P: A0 o1 Y- mtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
' A9 F: x6 G7 K h- z The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is) d& k- A" C7 h: J9 d6 @. {
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 j5 H5 u D5 X: ]) Jbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented3 _ m* Q+ C* I8 B
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
& k; N) Q' q* }5 E! ^' |4 Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
2 S0 I% w) e1 q; w( K& J& vFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
! |# p6 _: e) ~- R- _' o7 pcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
% @. N5 E2 A- U2 ~9 q) r2 |/ Qper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 e0 b4 Q7 K, z/ J6 ~2 J
5 |/ e* O% K7 Y& f <<% f# B# e9 G, w" N0 p7 n* J) u! C
Highlights from across Canada:
7 u1 {2 p3 v9 A# C* r- i, @5 p# }& B7 n- o# F
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has7 R8 V# u/ O. f
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 A! s0 x& @6 R* X5 D
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound( i+ L( N+ ]- R! y! C
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track( h' }4 |% s% B' w3 W
since about the middle of 2007.
+ U( R0 K" J% @, ^8 e! i4 `# h - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& W: R5 ?& u8 W/ f& d/ G' A- K
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# O& s% K! V* \, T decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
3 }/ U5 q9 Z/ g" h6 N7 T largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
9 L" I- w- J# _- J+ I poor affordability levels.: H5 z4 w# O5 X8 ]
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the0 }' Y$ i- b; v) H* Y4 L
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
6 y4 K3 S) G4 @# e3 Z1 |. w' l2 l, g prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' }5 Z3 X# @3 d; v5 {5 B Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
H3 o2 [' e! h0 Q. j7 N minimize any downside risks.
5 R' C; }7 w3 {0 R& b8 b6 F; ?" r$ r - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( g5 w2 g- _- B# k7 p: |7 v
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is6 B; M2 g2 D' F4 I; [' u( f: v
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' n8 X1 U [' v 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
+ G. X+ w0 Q( a. @2 C being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
/ Y S9 i& A8 T+ ]' l* m - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
' [3 M% h0 p) s# C0 J8 s Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
* P3 [* G+ _; L. }9 m# ?" Q, x far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* z1 p( K+ K/ J) i1 t5 a
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be8 ~* J7 ~: J* B1 y% P" x# N8 y+ @7 b
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
& l* o# R/ E5 l: I( Y6 z8 S) A modestly in recent years.2 M9 u% Z! Z/ [( ]* z1 r" }
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
" m8 r- f& q6 y7 T- O! Z8 x, ~ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot- z: ~7 `7 t6 @. P3 \
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward. t4 y1 E" p5 e7 o. v: n" x
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability5 U" \4 S/ ]( ]0 h; y
following two years of deterioration.
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