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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC . L# d( v4 U* _ J1 x4 ^: l
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' f; }5 l& ^5 ]+ w7 W
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
6 `0 A/ a7 R. G! Hgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 T4 s9 U& c! Raccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.8 `6 n9 B" \# I) t, Y
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"# ~- z8 q0 o$ v
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is' j) R8 a) J/ R) s) ]3 ^9 D
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
0 S& l( f+ e: `8 s( K1 Ymeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."/ _, a0 h! c1 Z
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
2 ]- _$ S9 d7 P2 w2 q8 {/ {; d1 gworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
8 z- F Q. n1 z3 t, L8 O* fwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, A8 L- l' z) isustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. Q& u4 |0 A7 n
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the. d1 k8 Q2 r8 x8 N
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
% `/ d7 r( m9 T1 _; {' r' I! Khome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 l C2 R7 Z) C, S+ N* |# [% UAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( ^7 r1 Z' R7 K6 u' Ustandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
8 r3 i2 h2 a$ e+ Z, zthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
$ P; |% v3 m7 |" B According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
1 g" m. w5 c H3 _4 s, ` m1 qmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in& A* E! y5 h/ {8 t& l
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at8 H4 n2 j; g0 J. ?; w# g5 S
historically depressed levels.
4 q5 u" E% d3 v6 c7 z H8 J Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
- U# z$ Q; w) x4 Rof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House6 ~6 h, Q/ _4 Z
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
) p6 U" h9 M2 l7 F0 d* I: mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This2 e% y' s* e" H
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the# f" X: A6 C& f0 O/ E# K x+ ]! s
months ahead," added Hogue.+ S. ? J0 l7 y$ v9 c3 A3 s
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
" \! C. E8 f% L2 Bcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
- X- V1 o. ~7 e1 X1 _42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.& x2 a" Q- b' y0 ^, x
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
6 H6 e1 ^; M: n7 A$ pa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 m1 S0 g7 D! T$ b2 ecities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only; C0 i( B1 `4 S
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
7 a% Y4 ^0 S1 R, c" a4 h7 n! K The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
. e, V! i/ C8 y2 Z" ebased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
. i8 G9 I$ M6 y# Ubenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
/ O* \7 i' N, z9 g8 Hincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 c g+ n% m* G8 q0 ^* O, r3 ?
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 _/ o/ Q1 n: b! |6 }For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership X: B& ~4 T5 i0 ~+ ^' k
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
4 q& E, G- r+ ^/ m3 Pper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 S& o' c+ c5 H9 A! |; n" G E. b, Y
<<
% D) o, e( x8 ] Highlights from across Canada:
) a8 }' W: n: k7 Y; s$ j+ W& y2 ^9 w, d7 g
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ }6 A/ O) N0 B6 v( H3 i9 J2 x. S
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing' A- }. w! l, o$ N
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
7 I$ }/ _6 R: f only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
8 J9 V/ U: w/ _, x3 Z( |, x since about the middle of 2007.
# n( b! }% a" i8 |: n( x& N - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
3 Z: P$ C0 D) x M, k frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 V8 H7 v3 i5 `) q. f6 N
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
" z5 L- V7 l- `8 p largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
7 F( ^7 {5 @7 y0 f! e poor affordability levels.% J; V/ k' Q# O- x! [; A
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the/ D0 z+ b4 p$ U, }. U2 a
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
) s! ^0 s) J4 H prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
# \: M3 l2 v- g5 J( S! E Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. p( O# z0 K" M% F! f/ @0 \( g& _ minimize any downside risks.( T* ]( O4 H+ {
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; d2 ~6 X1 d0 n* | conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is& g* H+ u, }# k6 k4 M' U
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early7 z* R4 r: c! x! K# C% {
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 H3 s( x B/ _! F
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages., D: A o# E) d. w# K+ y5 {
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
: M5 z# H, w9 z( g- m* H! { Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
2 p. x2 m `3 A$ b( L3 @! [ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
( F( ?, F$ Y6 j3 A3 h4 S# K$ v" x reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
% c4 d1 q0 C2 C: }- q ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
+ R6 U% E: _! O- S modestly in recent years.& v3 P. f9 q( K$ ~
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
" c; q7 a' m, m2 v" g' b1 l general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
: k) V) K6 Z1 W2 i+ ]1 f spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward$ r2 z! K3 I$ m+ }3 c# x0 y4 A2 `! J
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
- r& q0 N4 Y/ p O following two years of deterioration.
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