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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
}# K0 E# y% }/ r; ]5 \( Z TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
- ]' ~ a, ]9 _6 Fmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive; K9 j: R) s7 h8 G8 a/ P
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
p0 _7 d4 E s- uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: d$ N1 p' _5 p, |! \ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"+ H# y& y; k G9 b* t! ~' q7 o
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is0 ?' Y( V, U; H! G1 Y5 o2 ~( _
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
7 Y" i+ G1 |$ d6 O8 {- G* X! Mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 o y; ?! K9 n3 D5 ~ ~
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
$ L* [7 T' U9 c' \7 ^* \. u/ Zworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,5 O& g& a7 {( M) `) V5 S
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
7 q! M0 p8 ^, g( P L' o+ v9 Bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
2 r6 _, m! x1 J& D The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 L: S3 l* L3 M- Kproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
% i: K* {* y( j/ [7 A( vhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.: }2 T1 }5 Y L- ^
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the3 ^1 \# ]% X2 I1 ^, @
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
- [8 ]5 f1 q5 a! kthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
2 n' H2 N* j' W' ?2 \, z$ h" o2 G+ { According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
) P7 t) q! K+ `( i' z: `may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
+ Q% \& v! o. A: Jthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
# E+ G$ C( }3 {historically depressed levels.& n, P0 d: E& q1 z/ |
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ g- l* w" V: ?1 J6 l- z
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; n: ]) @$ F. O4 wprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
% B1 A% n' B! l% Z9 M! x$ F# { ^hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) g- M r7 g! {enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
! ]* v( C+ C/ _9 _& y% pmonths ahead," added Hogue.
( ~% x" F( Q/ K RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest) H. c7 x: v$ @4 T' e* ~
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary) I: [: Z$ `/ H% i/ d0 k
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
* D- I2 E: r- [4 I: k) h5 b The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ M! U# W& \- Q: M1 T' Na broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these% E$ Q$ Y; D2 J5 {' r( `
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 m$ S. p# q4 ~2 x; k" ]
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.; q& _. C' E ]$ i* l. X
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is( ?& P: G! X# B( p( ^# K4 U
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
9 n; ]9 g! U) D( K* a, q8 r% [7 pbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
1 A# d' \! b: r/ x3 `! yincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard. t# L# a4 M9 F5 a
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
( d4 {+ v9 ^$ v2 a, oFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership5 K& J$ L7 {" G4 P) S k
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
9 K; N. k4 A: Bper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.: E$ I" b& a2 z8 K5 \
) ]6 B' \1 R/ Z: y
<<+ H5 z: F& i3 C* [5 I
Highlights from across Canada:
* c2 u3 e1 Q% z$ q$ L1 W7 e- Q0 `
' F/ H' a9 a4 z/ _9 J - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ ?) x: x% _9 k1 h4 a% X! z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
' a+ j% D) r. ]0 f/ @ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
' V7 {: p+ k' D3 ? only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: l0 w' W- ~" }: Y( b( B) ? since about the middle of 2007.
s9 z j3 @$ I7 l - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% S. n' E1 y+ S) Q% w
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to- N, G- }5 `" T9 h
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, p8 ]5 f3 J+ }8 n# I
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
/ \ \ S1 j2 P# ^9 @3 P' m poor affordability levels.
( u. W- \1 `" Y6 U$ q) D - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
/ f6 J$ m( ?3 W3 q% f" V/ Y vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 A, I: i/ l8 M% l prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
2 R$ ~4 h: A( t$ _- O/ E* e. c Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to( n6 _) K4 t8 | p4 j
minimize any downside risks.% y8 q& X& u2 c3 X4 K2 u
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market9 J4 g+ s, f( r: w
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ l6 d, \! B! i% K0 t* \2 e, ~) m
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
5 { Y- {6 I" q& [2 j- \& ^ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly0 r9 W9 Q% @+ G
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ {- G# p1 O. D
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
; W. I: w# L' | f Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
. u2 s( y7 Q4 q" u, z8 b far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
: t8 B" [/ g$ n" b8 ` t( t reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# U) r( K4 S6 X+ c; `. k* R* H ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only' m$ ?, J# U, z
modestly in recent years.
; W/ c1 z) V6 z% M& k& a: ^ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
$ x; i6 x# C2 G5 k general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
' f1 [. z- C$ N5 l spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward' p ?) g" M- b4 C; H ]
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
0 S6 M9 f( x2 y$ G' ], j) u, N following two years of deterioration.' U1 h! z- i+ d" m: p( z3 u
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