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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
/ X1 k0 H$ ?& E6 H, f' B( E% h' v TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the- i" o) X9 _/ A$ F+ I$ f/ O u/ w8 `
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
0 Z2 i' c- f/ r& f2 ?4 ]0 M8 dgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
% P# A) A8 V7 C3 |+ I+ E9 ^according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) P4 b$ m P" G9 H. w9 {
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"+ E* A( h* d9 i
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 h0 x% N; M% v! H
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability4 S5 L9 U$ D- E/ R
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."1 d8 a1 q' D; l8 D" ]' g! H
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
# s- a9 c v! `! k) Uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
2 |7 q6 R5 b; f, |# A8 Xwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! t0 e% K5 \+ asustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) T( `( u- r6 K- P The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
/ i' i0 @- s- L5 v2 I+ E# |6 O% t0 A5 qproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
8 ^7 a6 i4 P- `4 {$ G6 Uhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( [1 [: P$ i. L7 X
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( T- W) s& @, J9 q5 [3 t% @standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
; Q( _# x' F7 o1 I. g, K; }7 D) @the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 J0 {: l$ M2 i+ Q
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
' y" q/ d2 ` M4 emay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
; X. y4 K: r" Z& dthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
" {* e5 Y7 q C A5 Rhistorically depressed levels.0 a; v& U9 d* C$ D3 x; G' a; q' H
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost x+ w! F0 [2 ?! G: P+ `
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
# K* D B8 `2 w/ ~6 p/ A% G* {7 tprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
4 ~( R! a9 W4 W2 T6 D& I+ ?4 ahands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
; C2 _# Q/ j- _7 K- L- fenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the! V1 t& {% T4 }- ?4 |) M
months ahead," added Hogue., s ?& L( ?& @
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest9 v, T& G0 x8 v& a
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary4 Q6 G/ j( P3 ?: u4 p7 v/ z' ]
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.9 _( p5 O9 R, y& }: g* X \3 K
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
% q9 p. q% M5 Pa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these# W1 m2 q9 h' o/ W' F5 u/ o
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only$ V/ H# M. b& O' x( U9 h( s
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
' {) v' ^: L9 e& @) D& p! @ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; U7 x1 [/ N! I& @based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
+ d% ?2 z, W- u) N. P$ v4 wbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented/ E( e- d/ W) c6 ~8 z
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 A* K9 o. n) X) e* n, q6 s4 o2 o
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
& a, r6 e- L' L: eFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership- u" S: z7 ?% N8 e
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
( L4 K9 S9 E( Z+ x7 ^: Pper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 y) X( Y! s3 j3 d4 k3 ^: p
9 E7 s9 u/ T A <<6 F$ _9 r5 m& X1 C% ]+ ?* U
Highlights from across Canada:% d, [ Y# d& j
" I3 |; }1 w, p5 o+ [
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
7 G/ e9 v- [' L3 Q' z9 T8 z5 X intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing6 [& b9 O9 d, O! w8 u3 k
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound b$ t3 W c8 ^, h. f; i! h7 g! q
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track- @' f* C0 z, h
since about the middle of 2007.
6 H- O9 c/ d, r" e - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the- w H l. Z2 ]2 d A
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; j' ~( q K% H decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still5 d7 J7 m4 c2 a% J' q; i+ e0 `/ D
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
8 R0 n/ ?5 m4 m% K$ |$ `4 n$ Z) d ~ poor affordability levels." m4 Q6 D: m9 _3 S
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" k3 }: P) Q8 L u$ S
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and% U/ d7 Q ^% m5 Z5 z
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.9 N( ?. T- i. w
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
3 N b! Y5 |3 T minimize any downside risks.2 c, k7 ?) g, m
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
6 D) O; n5 l- S; E& U& f% N6 y conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is7 h& Y8 f& K6 C1 S5 P5 S
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early) u. x8 M- L9 M+ M; ] Z
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
7 H0 G. I( W0 M" ]$ m8 H7 F4 | being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.4 t& {) Q% O$ M7 ~
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in0 B O& K3 V @9 b% `4 ~
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
' Q. l9 D: g4 \: Y4 B far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
$ ~4 m3 a0 Q3 @# S% M8 ?2 R6 p reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) Y+ v: C' d6 \" P8 c' b" R ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
2 L2 G3 y( c ^0 q8 @* L- f modestly in recent years.% n3 ]7 W9 G: ?& b% N0 Y
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the! `* c- R' h- Y! K1 \
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot) _. k9 j" S) ]% ]
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
* O& g! v- ]* r- Y8 F6 U/ ~ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability* n/ D% c. b T
following two years of deterioration.# S; C9 I2 [% H) Z
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