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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
) ?- Q9 C6 D, G9 ~0 e2 G1 r; p* Y TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
O3 T8 u+ p) x" bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# t) F% e M% \3 V! k
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
7 H, F" t1 r5 r1 p% j/ Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." N: a) C' m% J
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,") a6 \/ r2 F& p2 N& @
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is( }) w* m H: W- k$ @
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability" n1 h! {' W/ \' ]9 B( o$ R. ^
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."2 G9 p' I+ y, J3 \. M: {. B
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
: {0 M6 C+ p' cworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
4 C* J$ L# M ?0 Swhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
* Q$ A& ?, y$ v3 w8 c: ksustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
7 f) m* O0 Z2 I& u The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the' K% A! w3 h$ _
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# [& u, p8 W, k+ s' K) c
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008./ g+ `3 `( m1 f5 C5 {0 S% f
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the( X1 Z3 j( A8 q4 e) U
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
* s6 l. W6 [' b0 zthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ m$ E2 n9 c* S8 H4 _) [
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
' s' Q" ?+ B5 {+ K6 d9 z- _- emay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in+ c2 s' m$ ~* p- A: e7 N
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at0 o) g9 C6 c7 p% k- v
historically depressed levels.
" Z$ ?9 k; o" b& g: f P Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
/ ^4 d; ?$ p! d. _" T/ \" qof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House |- L' s' U1 o- ~7 g C# S* I
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
5 Z& U I" T2 b! ~- L, m* D# uhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
' O" r6 r/ Y% @% A- o- J3 penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the$ t. s$ D8 u- m1 {1 b
months ahead," added Hogue.) ?( ]. b, E- x8 `# ]9 a
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest7 |0 N" `& E! m/ R- m- h6 H
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
- t4 _6 W9 ^9 d9 V1 ]# o# p42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 m3 c, }7 g. P4 m The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
: ` X$ X) ~( pa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these5 j! X& D0 B( e& W7 Q8 G
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only Y% |# B, d: e6 L- ^& g
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: Q; K* \- B. W: f! x. U% _6 S
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 J) S. B: T% ]) |
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ b* b4 [* }) w+ E
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
+ @: N$ w& g$ b* nincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
/ J4 z3 r/ E: B7 xcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home." U" M& q, \3 x
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! O3 P0 n7 t7 t2 ~ `
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 \+ G0 ?1 }+ W* v
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
1 P, { F# S6 _
; \8 u: K, `( C* A q# q9 m- R* v <<
+ e7 R# r! E% P6 x$ K Highlights from across Canada:' e5 J, {0 P* c% j) s
; e; Q& d% O/ {/ l3 |: P' C
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) ]/ f! g8 u+ J+ l
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
: o1 k( b2 m: Z% {* n home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
0 W/ ? t0 H9 u! G0 y only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
+ Q; J s/ _" J3 a' d9 a- O, Y6 ` since about the middle of 2007.
q5 Z$ y% H4 l% w - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the" K1 K9 n( x* i1 T3 S
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
) t: U s+ u! g, ]( D decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' Y8 ]2 Z8 h/ {6 t6 R/ } largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
5 F1 d0 k3 M h poor affordability levels.( O+ y3 v, F9 T( w4 L5 d" ]# u
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
+ t' G% ?( ?7 ]3 O3 W vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and9 U) |' M a9 [) J$ S
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
& S0 E7 N/ w& v9 t( k9 n Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
& e2 `- Y% ?. y+ `! ? minimize any downside risks.
: ^% ]3 A) L# ^* L# z* `0 o - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& I, G3 o' F' ?
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 @3 y, m$ h) M; E- ~- a+ m unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early& D& O( Y, L' H' c- M6 h0 Q8 V/ B
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly/ h& W2 b; v# W ^0 ^; A) @
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
, o, H$ I, s( Y$ d+ C. a. Y* c - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in7 @0 `9 y O6 S6 \2 E* U" L4 ~
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
8 F6 m. h7 `- y* m1 m9 s9 X far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up$ W W/ g8 h& n' a* q
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" H4 w: t3 [' C3 g t ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only5 M4 R7 L# q7 u6 E$ b
modestly in recent years.1 G* Y# e p( q! `- }
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, k2 X; _/ L0 V: R
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 b" {& L1 i+ [8 \, G2 R! @% Z- J' q spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
+ i, u' n; V1 l3 f2 P price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability) [1 ~! P1 b& m# X% q5 C
following two years of deterioration.3 e! A: m: H( o8 {! Y4 m4 _) F9 D
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