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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ' l# e" c2 o9 g H
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
1 A! h0 O/ [+ A7 [- O1 K1 pmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
D, [+ i$ A% v" j* fgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
4 x4 v ]( t# n. kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.9 [2 F( E$ S) u1 D$ f! q( M
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' n5 G8 o% B; W, F! f$ E. Esaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
) N( N! Q* P' \2 T, m |* Himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
* o% M3 N1 ]9 f" Smeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 B- I4 S8 K! c% [* t7 F! k: ? RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, l6 l3 D: y- E& `# ~/ w
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
# H: G' W9 C- }% M0 j' Ewhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
; n$ X. _) w: ]3 j" l) i4 esustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
# j: ^# P$ h* E& L+ C1 Z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% u& q6 x, L. @proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a9 W2 ~: R+ c% R# C; [
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& J4 C! o$ f- d% r3 A
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the3 F3 P* q" D" Z: B$ N- y7 _
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and- |( Z; W9 [# D$ {/ n9 t
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
- A. ` Y- @/ }; u2 p( Q According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets( [- y1 H% m; u1 m4 z4 H
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in4 i7 D+ |9 X6 \# G& K
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
/ ]% X. }7 g' N) E: V# B/ o4 C* h# Ghistorically depressed levels., }6 K% X, I) a, O! ?9 g
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& g; f0 [$ t6 o+ r! H
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House u1 o" s3 k3 R4 i: [0 W, S
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the% U' I2 P1 e$ ?/ o
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
+ g+ C/ H( {' i9 `enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
: E- ]. o" J; k1 R! l; {months ahead," added Hogue.' U% j% ?9 A6 A7 @" n* |3 q- B# n
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
7 u* j+ E0 W7 V5 \# o$ L! U d+ gcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary, K7 c. l |" O' `
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 @: D4 i3 G3 n/ s) Y8 B" J
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
+ i# p6 C, k4 l* ea broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 G8 k z0 k, e" P+ Y' B* pcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only& A: L$ O6 M8 Y3 u5 j n
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 x' k. j# x( b0 o
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# v) y6 i- S% [4 a3 p3 \, ]/ w
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property. L P/ t% S4 ~
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented! |* ]; Y- [! J' `1 c. X/ f
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
0 [5 i1 d, L( ~/ k( }condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.4 N a. O# d& d8 q H& P& H1 k
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: ?# z0 ]8 \0 f6 q8 A; k
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 @1 K) g4 D, l3 `0 V' ]6 ?
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
+ S& ^- X* F, H. a
3 [. i# t- b. U1 t& w" U <<) }$ h. y q5 H, Q+ v8 ] x0 b
Highlights from across Canada:
9 Y0 a/ ^3 B4 d4 f6 G1 U7 t9 n1 X
9 p9 _0 p$ C/ E2 i# R. n7 O - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
5 w$ V* t+ ?8 G8 l! K& s- x intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing' T1 h/ d5 b3 Y0 c
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- Y. t. F2 h; p) \7 w) o only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
+ s$ @. I/ k' ?) V( {* l7 a( D since about the middle of 2007.' y x( `+ v9 { X$ k' s: u
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! H Q6 @& G* P- o
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
_/ P8 R4 o' D decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
. Y5 n7 M$ _5 u* b- i largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely: U& P, `2 A1 E; E0 D8 d
poor affordability levels.9 B- u* x2 X" {& Q
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the7 \* u! u! }4 J$ g' W
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# M6 r9 Q X! j8 j2 H4 o# t prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
) D4 H7 a' x( e5 x9 G5 t Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to4 G n; H! Q+ I: C$ \
minimize any downside risks.
! H0 o( N( e& @ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
8 G% }+ X1 y- j& W8 R9 R conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
4 _# R# ?# m7 m2 |8 @ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, v J; g. I' k L; d" t* n- F
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 L& b( g) y; A# t$ R! w
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
; p/ j g4 p( C' A4 n% f; B - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in5 j( U' O9 @& e5 @5 m* S
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
; E- u) u5 c3 F/ V" ?/ I3 n far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
4 x) @+ F/ v) F% F( H reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be6 ^+ o! f3 i- T" a* F, B: P
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, J3 @: S& R7 q; e modestly in recent years.) P# Z+ F7 N# p& G/ H
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the K$ y) D3 V; t# b3 h
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot w, a3 y& I8 _* ]9 S# ~
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
7 t1 V# _, |* b8 b price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
% v7 r- J1 A y% P! |! n following two years of deterioration.
1 p: ^& j7 M8 J% Z; L3 |# s+ r >> |
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