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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 W e1 D$ t: a6 B
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the8 ?+ q J, }- w2 n, @
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
8 |( N7 C5 ] C- ~, U5 P: ngains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, u& d9 M7 @$ P9 Q8 W. Z5 `' Yaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
4 r; K& b. K3 r# N7 z( B "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' L1 q3 @# f$ L1 A/ \* T" U" X ysaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is3 b+ r; ]+ n. l4 z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
9 h! j$ s( o- ?+ pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
. b+ Q0 A; j1 O5 z8 Y+ u* D RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
( \# \) |) L* L- N$ Dworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,$ I9 Z. d, B- n- @( X7 A
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
6 v* d7 J) j# J2 l2 x3 s+ dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.( F5 h+ _" S6 U8 l
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the. t" z% h+ I- {# P
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" @; u5 S( Y" R8 A/ {
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
+ m* P3 E, X* W( HAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& S4 `" s, U( [* Rstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ Y E- T, L* Q( y3 V: V
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 I5 c1 v% ]5 x# I- s; ~
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 h& ]; ]. \4 k9 \5 A0 E7 e4 L G
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
6 U7 i6 U5 g& D9 }$ B$ {the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 O1 u. j: b9 U7 p$ d
historically depressed levels.
$ Y* K1 O( w1 \/ G1 E( ~- G" c Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ ?+ n; V% ~8 b% Z/ Z2 k y6 Qof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House% l/ @+ g2 M6 @+ U# G! m. u& ]
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 o9 Z' J" v; H4 P
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
/ p+ `+ f# \2 ^8 a) Z: F7 d0 \. uenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
A: V/ N, g$ `4 Z* nmonths ahead," added Hogue.
! ~8 X; l7 y6 \8 Q RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
1 F9 o+ s. l' f p" ^8 u5 p" Dcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
7 r4 Z6 s; t/ k# {7 ^42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
2 j! O6 y$ I. [* a9 K( C5 x The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for& U4 T- z% A& z* W
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, t8 |, W4 u$ q; G( t7 }& d
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only' J3 B( Y9 g& C$ q* s6 T R
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
8 r3 w/ d# P# W- Z The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
2 k1 W) i1 P* Dbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
* l* F2 ]9 @- \$ V! Hbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 i2 X6 p3 |7 s$ @including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard1 g& `9 v4 L' @' J
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.9 ^; r( i9 V5 r, \2 p& U
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership2 m: }2 K% H# u5 n
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50, @' D ]5 h6 E6 g
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.: r$ E. F* V/ H+ z0 A
) W7 v4 J7 P( o* I7 E/ w <<% o1 G! z0 ]& z3 Y* A9 N
Highlights from across Canada:
- Z% X8 h3 I% U* u" {" O. W9 K k5 `1 _ E
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( p" l) `: {8 X+ A5 o+ S
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing) \; O$ q6 b0 V) K0 c
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
) ?. V. u7 k, n6 g: X- I only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track0 F H% E5 o+ }3 q* e' I; _1 Z* G4 \' \
since about the middle of 2007.
' Z% J/ z! h! w4 N5 } - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 }+ g3 P6 }6 P& L/ k
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to7 f: K1 m- k, b ^; K; L
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
1 |, [8 L! \8 e4 ~9 ?* R largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ m' v8 `" S4 j. m poor affordability levels.7 s; M {1 f7 _5 x
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the( y0 |3 [6 d9 s- e$ @% q h- ^
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
, O2 t r9 f4 v5 l; z) | prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 b+ B6 B9 ?; J1 B4 y9 F9 `" W6 c
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
' @4 h# a) ~3 q minimize any downside risks.0 X* L" I. J Z: j) u4 X& W: J' c
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market- u/ K1 D$ K( x$ F0 F4 c% B
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is2 _) v7 Y$ {2 E) M5 y
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ ~/ d" k8 o8 |" h! a* b 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% A1 @# K! u2 B# {) J5 }8 J* {) h being restored to levels closer to long-term averages. A& G# B/ M9 I+ s& H, ]
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
4 C0 w" U- @/ U) g5 w: ] Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 l1 u! G/ X, e1 Q" R: ?6 t* }
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 C+ l! S% U: `
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
5 L9 A2 P2 q3 N3 b# N7 L ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ R. E( U. M; E. j# Y- u5 E+ W modestly in recent years.
* \0 b& ]0 S; q2 z - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the" T+ t" M% Q# q) x* N
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot1 Q) X6 x7 @; C8 Y
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward4 u( q; f" N- A4 @1 t3 m
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! d" A) T; S6 A* N1 b
following two years of deterioration.
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