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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 6 b5 |6 K2 c+ b4 a' a
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 M* b* \& `. }
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
5 N# s; p( o+ ~gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* U% X' d! p( j9 W9 Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.8 o1 x3 L# S1 J6 P( v# U7 G! ^
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"' h# R* E+ w$ {
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
+ X' ^' W8 l1 q, u! d/ simproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
4 ^8 I: N5 Z( q0 R D6 |measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
X& D' u1 B9 Q7 @& A& L- }, a RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! c: I& p/ }: L! Xworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
2 A' Z! ]" B% W8 U" w1 fwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
& q9 b) M: H, \9 _3 }+ Ysustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" H6 a. H/ J& S5 _ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the' X' |5 ]" [3 c1 f- G4 e
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
# V- l% q0 o# w% K* khome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.) H; z9 N, Y/ e% h) z/ G: y+ T
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the1 L; `% I. }9 j* @* G
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and8 U) X% ^2 d/ E! Z1 B7 f
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent." k8 j' u. r0 @) X5 M ], j
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets. G( z7 U$ p# g& l8 C( M7 b
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
# j. V+ a' j7 ^) y) q6 N5 ^/ \the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
( S3 o& O6 x( i: ~1 S" Y# Ihistorically depressed levels.. f6 z( K3 p$ o
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& @9 }# k& o( m$ r" W/ N" b1 `
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* ~0 a2 I) d8 Y8 Y( W7 j% \prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& t7 P1 V- m& U
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This: ~: u/ e+ @' H( n
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
/ s: x7 s" W( ?. Tmonths ahead," added Hogue.* w/ Z* C1 S4 D7 l& K" u/ O
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest' u0 v" L7 o2 L9 g3 s! U
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
9 q. O4 F; v+ Z4 l42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. V' D6 U2 [7 v; ?
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
2 L+ w0 R# W4 j' s! oa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
! i2 T" ^6 `+ `cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
. O3 g9 H4 Y" Otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.2 Z8 \& G( Z) I% F
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
1 B9 {) B( u y5 a/ V; fbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ N# T+ E5 X) cbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" f" s5 N. R8 ?! Cincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard, ^7 k( b: W; R5 y2 V: r5 d
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.7 f+ ~+ M/ v2 K) h6 M4 \8 M6 S
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
- J( s: ?6 R6 [" r1 K( j$ Zcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
F7 t7 B N# Y( E4 oper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 w8 w7 H& a6 ], k' X: @" c
0 E+ J8 b W: x <<5 s( l( n9 e! u. {
Highlights from across Canada:9 v+ {2 a! R# K3 b7 d+ y, S8 y
Y2 Z5 ^' O3 N h
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has8 s5 P4 b+ h2 R' ^0 i
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing0 Q5 n! P0 @& U& c( }: [
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' r. |/ r# M0 c/ D
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track7 C& ~2 w+ ?3 f! Y0 L* ^' j
since about the middle of 2007.: A t7 v9 \1 d; D
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
0 c1 j. ?' o2 F! l+ Y9 Q8 v frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
1 A" J6 c$ m6 M) T: {1 @3 g/ s decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still( @( \0 A4 A: X3 W2 v; z1 Z
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
0 T, I/ r) q2 c/ z& { poor affordability levels., X* r# `% u6 M N7 F, L0 |$ d! S
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the6 F j7 O# X3 |9 _- q" E
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
' u3 P2 Z, E" c5 i8 h3 m% n prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.5 W8 b. `/ m& q% P, b/ O& N
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to# i. n2 ^$ N& n) `0 `, Z2 w. L
minimize any downside risks.
3 n# i' }, a: M J! B - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market6 W1 I( Q: Y! X k3 ^
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is. R3 ~% n4 m$ o7 F: l
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early3 t: E$ z: Q2 S& L
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly( R$ L) H) h$ ?
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.! Z. w/ e0 t6 p% M
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in3 Y; \! P! `# w2 B0 M
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
3 n7 T) [, W2 |% D far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
; ], L4 C+ z7 @2 F reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be2 k/ f$ \) V3 z- _
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 ^; f2 z( s- z" n$ F% {6 M3 j( K" [' ] modestly in recent years.$ S @" p3 |8 L2 Z& ^. c( H
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
3 [7 e9 X$ I: ?8 S general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot; O; ^3 K! B4 V0 Z: i! ?
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" R5 R/ x- Q- j
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability' z. q5 c, C" ^% {. ^) `
following two years of deterioration./ b9 w1 e% C$ g7 F3 L* G: ?
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