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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ! Z8 y; a" P4 d0 U* L0 N! |# v; t3 x
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
$ a" s6 g9 o5 |) s. ]0 ?middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
3 ]! o& x" ^2 ^; o1 z( R tgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
4 v) A5 f% D s1 _6 v4 Saccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.6 n% E$ Z. [3 _
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure," I* j: F. i# j+ v. N: a
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
! u& ]. ?; A( h& o8 N! Mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
3 ^) m; D' S0 b9 jmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
s7 t x ^; }% m RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! D/ \+ `/ b8 K" @9 C; g. V" e3 Gworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% ]1 I/ N: o- E) Xwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have3 k) W& z! {5 F8 I1 h# A
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.8 R, s, ~. R: j9 H" j8 }& q
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
2 K' }4 o" [+ f5 l L" K! G0 f! i2 dproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a7 a. a V$ I1 _1 i; m
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
# O% v7 `0 o# |! b7 eAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( l* A" G) m8 ~, ~9 _( C b7 `( g4 K* Pstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
U6 b7 w: o. Y( u6 A4 E9 h0 hthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. d G0 z. Q x7 h: U% ?! E
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets/ m6 Z& N5 z% U: L/ o7 |; W
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 r! `! s- }9 c5 O& D/ k0 lthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
9 }5 j4 h, S( bhistorically depressed levels.
2 x+ ? Z+ v6 ^0 o Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost4 X$ H5 O' q5 q* g( v
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
2 G; K* ?# w' p' X, |) P, pprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
8 M5 a3 h/ F4 D, I, t$ t+ d; Lhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 k8 A3 k5 O, e5 j5 cenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
7 ^9 _0 F1 K8 R* v6 T M. Dmonths ahead," added Hogue.
$ M# h: d9 |7 u, N, Z RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest* u- C: [/ s; F7 R3 [
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% Q& h/ u9 Z9 S2 s/ Y
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
' O, v/ A O# M4 [/ u The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for3 W F/ m3 o6 K6 e8 {0 B
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 d4 v( ^, T( L5 E, hcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only- @! L/ G9 O7 q9 x* |
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
( W& w! l$ q$ ]9 ^0 t0 W( x The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
7 ~4 M+ s* E) e3 j% P, qbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property8 I# g' P; b% K; Y2 Y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
) R# M" D7 a+ t$ c) n6 iincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
' n1 [2 l/ C9 p% C% ^; _condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
8 q- h$ o/ P2 s6 K3 a1 ZFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
" ^+ y z& M% Lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50- @, I: j% }9 K
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
4 w4 s$ l( o, [* g* }% ?" L5 s
( V7 I* {) F$ _% I$ i <<
, s; Y$ X9 d5 I& n Highlights from across Canada:
6 I* V1 F2 j( P8 q# ^( l% z# K+ i8 |: [+ t) ^3 j+ _3 A
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) ~1 f; {: k5 _9 k" U8 m3 N
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
6 C3 y/ l6 O8 \: T home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
; @: W+ C- v1 f& t) a7 ^. a1 M only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track/ `2 j m+ J7 k7 S3 i/ z
since about the middle of 2007.
9 l- E& N0 r) |1 ` - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the5 G I4 c2 {4 C3 v+ w8 N" \
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; x, Z4 J8 ^2 S( H) O6 U$ u decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
$ M2 c( q* N0 {& y) x1 k- X- S largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( {% w* B5 E5 z+ A) V- u
poor affordability levels.
" y% k7 k K6 \' ?+ g - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
/ x& Y% Y. `' Y3 {: ^& A- C$ }- U, y, ^ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
* }( [ @4 s- [! k- O prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.* i/ ~2 E, D8 Y
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
6 F4 d/ d! N( }5 Q, j6 } minimize any downside risks. H+ T8 x$ ~; U/ }# h; H
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market; k# H5 U% T4 B8 ^
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. w1 i! l* A6 N unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early% U7 r9 i2 `, X
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly, A; u& E2 o# n0 C" R, X$ z
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 b& x D9 v; G
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
0 M( k% T! I2 q! C4 h$ } Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus( g0 W. d" u4 B3 J& r. x
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
& Z" e& Y8 I; g7 X reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be( P- r6 L3 P) G! p8 w7 @4 Z8 }# E# I
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, H2 q( T$ i: }$ A% @ B+ t
modestly in recent years.$ k' n- h7 X9 K& q; B! E/ {
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
" D/ E- W+ b1 B$ f/ E+ S general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot, G, \4 d, ^/ {3 E
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
; ~/ l+ Z! |# Y6 T9 q price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 v$ h' i" z6 C( Z following two years of deterioration.7 v" i5 D ]* j' f4 E
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