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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
3 ?/ G; _ x7 X! ]; @7 V5 c9 x% w. Q, } TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' j) J! X3 k9 S. l; J4 v2 ?4 ]( t
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive3 G2 z( c2 Y6 ^# w0 Q5 z: W- I
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,6 z7 D, Q( D. y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.8 u- T- \) V' g' {! `& |: X
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 u5 g% i9 L8 s! r
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is* W' n% ^0 x6 `6 g
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
# ?) V! ?1 r2 T/ smeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."' y8 x% T+ ~: v+ f6 D
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, V( b3 D5 c% r- d) `( E
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,, v+ F' o$ e( N# O
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have. _- b7 x% z9 A- R* ]) R' o* e
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 f q) d* ~ N% P- u3 r The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the% o) Y6 C0 M5 R& B! r
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" j. O% b5 q' u2 `8 b
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008./ l1 B' w+ k9 s# A2 u
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 f4 \+ Z) c4 n# |$ m, [: v
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and q! C7 }$ B" K4 [
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.( a7 L5 L7 _9 K4 |" |) }
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) ^( k( H1 h) W. C: o- O
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
6 Z" a9 z- L& B. O, ~5 Q) mthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
! o) F* W+ ^+ }# B1 L7 ghistorically depressed levels.- }; M" A% _; ^9 p1 `% [
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 l' C& o! Q: e0 g: G: W
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& a! }/ T) o0 K# P" e( L: p; n
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
: D6 p0 G, e) ^- H* ~1 O; z( n8 f7 [hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This9 P* x, E) A, ^8 G: U9 U1 ~% z
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 a5 i. I" Q/ r' kmonths ahead," added Hogue.
8 l* B; _8 S4 q( Y8 I2 g; x; |! g3 f4 H RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest- s3 H5 a# C/ {& B# U1 l V
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary1 p3 X4 ^# W6 F5 t& l+ b
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. S9 P2 E* K8 B
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
4 z' b, p- n: A9 y3 I( j3 Wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
2 _+ D! F$ ]. [; P* ~$ ^7 X! ucities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only: b' C# m1 S- C6 j
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.! x; u1 D5 K2 ~6 g
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' V3 ^6 h& V1 J' l" `0 }; A/ Jbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property; s" W* s* \/ l4 j
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
# J5 s+ |, Z; l# d9 Q) iincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
' @& M! f* p3 D" U$ Xcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
9 G* _0 ^) L& ^) j6 w) T7 ^! m( }. SFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
: y% N7 Y! ^+ y2 ~/ Fcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50& C# X3 v% X9 |' l+ \# u
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
* N6 D9 J1 H0 R3 W3 f& c6 a" m* m l# n" ^4 F
<<
' {6 v2 O; [8 A* L Highlights from across Canada:+ Y) y* l+ U2 a8 p$ h$ j, w
5 r4 S( V% ~- G/ E3 W S! j1 S - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' s* @, j% r# q6 {1 a, z, @
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing- F% S$ Q6 H) N" X% u D
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- E4 G! o/ U) z/ F* W only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track1 `- |% Z8 A5 }
since about the middle of 2007.
- K2 ^; S3 }0 B7 a* }' W - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the- g) W9 t3 f1 G2 W' d
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to, V+ N& Y0 _! E: U, B) S
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still9 b4 V; k. D- D4 b! u
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely- q7 H! ~! u+ D
poor affordability levels.; m9 q4 k# z7 K' c
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the8 I: @9 [2 k9 ^; G, R$ O Y/ s$ P7 P
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
) q, n+ v2 ?5 i prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 {$ \ Y3 F: [8 R+ p9 b s3 X Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
- h2 }" @+ V* L! v+ [9 k) x minimize any downside risks.
8 _' x5 P4 V: p2 T/ s, } - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
8 y$ M3 j/ q1 ~2 \* p9 a/ c Y conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is- p4 j' O: s- B! \/ z% }
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
4 w9 l7 W; I! ? 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
+ o& n: Z% r5 T3 k' j, L being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- f: I9 }0 U2 E f; _ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
9 ^2 A! q$ v3 w: c" |+ h3 c Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 r* V. n3 [' G, E" p
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
7 }/ J X9 y; i/ k1 U" i reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be$ l. E% L! | j
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 \/ ?4 E7 X% i( H modestly in recent years.
1 z" m% V9 @4 o - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
Y# a* T I2 A( Q3 Q' l4 K# G' \3 [ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
: B: L0 g r' [4 b4 q# A! W spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
8 A/ G' ^* m; {" } w price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability0 B$ o# b! z2 d) |
following two years of deterioration.
1 @9 A$ H( ^% p9 Q >> |
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