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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
: Y' l& h3 X" U9 ?- m+ o TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
+ ?* }+ l3 c3 l% ]5 _* ?. j; ~middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! O" k E+ I: U+ A
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
# I0 S) o8 {9 U( S, Eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
6 M: {0 V+ g4 S9 f6 }4 _ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
8 V0 ]' I, E6 J( osaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is. o+ Z6 k: V' G' C
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability& t$ M7 ?/ @8 I, p B' ~7 X/ P
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
/ o1 I& S2 I, x1 L4 O! H+ |4 q6 B RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, p! P" c0 b# v+ o; b, L
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
$ i& j, p0 h# C; C7 `( Wwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
6 j( l+ `. v8 Jsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
2 }7 [% [6 s1 g' Y The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
$ M. M( N# B9 m0 B6 I9 y8 H% u* Mproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a$ Z! u6 Z7 ]; s7 {9 f0 V" S/ E" h
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
. j5 @% k! a) ~0 C4 g$ \4 VAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
# A7 J |6 F0 x3 R1 e$ F6 [standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
2 h1 U& d% o. D6 I0 U, ^# Ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ K) N1 Q" z( ~1 @+ d, Z
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
$ V: \9 I' @+ u" ^# J! ?3 \8 ?may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in( Q: H& s( p, h T5 W
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at% z/ P/ O4 q1 q' ?7 ?7 |; Z
historically depressed levels.+ A: a8 S! D( w# a
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 Y4 j/ g' @* y, S* k% P9 Mof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House$ ^( y4 i/ p% C, g7 ?
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& M; {, B/ J& o1 R# Whands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
/ w2 I6 p$ g2 z2 g* k" M9 Cenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the# u0 [$ L/ u6 R/ n0 u
months ahead," added Hogue.
& ^8 \9 h1 n7 |! L2 J RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; N C1 V. P! N0 f gcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary- O" r8 t% s4 Z8 \% q @
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
. X8 |7 u/ g3 H The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for0 j% ?5 ^( {) T
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- ?2 t m1 M: [
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only: |/ l, C9 g1 c, Q2 h/ H0 T7 A/ g
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
( V+ S! R3 Q6 d9 f' ]+ H+ I The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
( E; z$ k8 }1 V' bbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
! w& t8 D4 d' P, R# U5 Ybenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
1 {& C9 ?& V5 \9 |5 X- Zincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 G- `4 ?. I4 o& O; e5 g
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 P2 v0 P8 i* \6 Z/ t$ \
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! F0 u* t0 ~% w- l' l
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
5 e7 O# h( w3 V! ^4 P% Sper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
6 s- e* G5 m7 \9 S1 y. E5 Z
9 y1 m, z# S9 Q <<* w* [8 ^6 @5 A; z2 \8 j0 [# y$ ?( @
Highlights from across Canada:( f% G! K4 V9 U* S! {: N: N
( q* r; Z& @8 V5 e L& n& u - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has5 U! A" R6 r, N. h) i* n6 q
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 v# |! t, N; Y: J% z0 O
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
0 d; w+ o- y' [! K7 ] only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track8 e$ F" e. u4 t$ `1 J( n& l
since about the middle of 2007.
U0 @+ @ R6 k0 a - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
8 j' M3 U8 M4 }) q8 \5 Z frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to i9 d/ `3 L5 V4 Y9 ]9 i
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still: R$ e! O/ j0 |- J f1 S5 S; d% N# U! l
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
) h( m* L+ Q" I; I( X# ? poor affordability levels.3 B8 n, j( w# `9 o
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ {8 w1 \# C& o, T6 g ?" i% `* D
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and; J0 S' k: D0 D. c" ]& @
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
, H, p% M% w7 c! I Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 A: \% b- j6 `
minimize any downside risks.. Y) M4 w f* [) H4 R6 i
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market/ m t/ m9 G/ o1 U2 F- y
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
' f9 d; I! s% R: e. K7 i unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early8 Y4 p j5 ?( ^' m# ~. i# {
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly: i4 J) q2 B6 b, x/ d9 B" b
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
R8 x; [7 B$ e* l2 e' g. }. V - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
6 T9 D, b X; `# h0 h Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! K+ U! n- o( {+ |! ]/ c( ]' \
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
2 w! Y( f* p) @- C0 `6 y2 y, b reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be& P( i( |" I6 Y4 {+ d5 b5 J
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 C/ Q, n1 Y% o3 X* y2 | modestly in recent years.6 B D& [! h& t
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the% Y8 W- _1 ], v* w, ]/ [) a
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
4 d6 f6 ]- x/ S7 k spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" I% ?+ z6 n# _0 f, }- G
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 ^! \, k2 p. U) @ following two years of deterioration.1 O3 n0 N) v4 z. ~# h; ?: \
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