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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC & N9 ]/ ]7 _( P5 L" J( r2 z# d6 \
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
6 P: @: _# {1 @7 m+ q! z# g, i0 nmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& u8 o8 i: g- f
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,! d+ g: O$ L' c
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.% L3 H7 W- u! ]% R& _& n
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,": R$ r; u+ r" Y
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 p% J& t+ @! e3 _* [3 N
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) U x I/ _) y# O
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."4 F- i3 M7 M9 A; `( B/ w7 Z) M+ G
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. L) o# N, F/ T+ {/ F3 P
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,2 w3 h B) z$ g' V' T2 |
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have d. N+ H5 @3 m8 W+ v6 Z$ J. h
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.4 l6 S% M1 |2 I1 p" F
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
* t6 |4 b4 l) J, _0 r* pproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
( T* L. {8 V: a% H% z% Khome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.; O3 S* F0 z2 L; M7 }2 o/ A
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
3 @4 `* S0 U5 j5 c. Y9 rstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
* [3 }, u6 v5 m) t3 A+ ~: zthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* ^3 P1 w5 J: Y' ?) D$ e) H9 f
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: g! X4 j- } @" x: i0 ` Qmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in8 l* S | B: k! R* W; I
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
. W$ v1 E! B$ `; i2 V& E) T0 |historically depressed levels.
# h/ V% F2 s ~- s! @ u Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost! ?$ C2 u" O: E2 ?
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House) d2 x( x; \8 r1 @7 S
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the' r, u4 L* w$ E* y+ y6 a! g7 T6 M$ ^
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This1 Y5 b) o8 c) N' r7 D8 K( z
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
& S( s1 W$ u$ S9 A# `$ G3 nmonths ahead," added Hogue.3 N$ V% h; d$ @7 u& R
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest: p# K5 C% N2 ]7 R/ L* E( t
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
1 _# ^" J& a# b, m42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
. @ v. [2 c4 r9 [% e6 Z' | The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% d6 v9 `. m" b+ {4 ~3 e& C3 Q7 X' G
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
, P, h. G) v0 H/ d& e$ R* z6 Rcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
# ?+ w' B* Y5 s! a. E/ Btakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.5 B/ z' Z/ |& d& z, w
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
0 V. q% Q) t: G) N$ B0 Bbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property" ?5 `3 N, U2 {) b( m8 q7 l$ I0 C- q
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented7 J' Y7 _3 V( @. o! u
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
9 w1 N. Q/ X/ i+ Z: y% jcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.3 t( m L: s/ A3 v: h0 }0 E
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership" Y$ V- V9 [( M* l1 J
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50! m4 d+ A( e4 B/ R! X
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
: v" N* h) e( E2 |3 O
) R8 X! U8 ~0 W( V" Y1 m <<
4 j, O& W" _& j/ J2 t, x Highlights from across Canada:
! y1 J6 c2 ]7 g# k
4 l/ @* D- k) S% _8 M' I - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has% B5 G: H: U3 c+ z* R& c9 U' {7 n, w
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing7 b' O8 R' ]$ B, X' J
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: {+ E! X; F# z L: b
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
& X; z i$ m* K: t7 P since about the middle of 2007.
, u- y1 M. [& r, k* O8 ~0 s - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
& u2 j Q( A" N5 P frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to" W3 }* S d' R, G$ o! _2 w3 S
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still# Y, n. `& O7 z1 c
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
7 e% W9 i& x3 b, U! }+ B poor affordability levels. c$ K6 D( y, s' D$ |7 t
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
( J" W$ F7 i) @' }% ~ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# C3 w1 I! H2 i- o" R( o, l) Y prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" L. b) E# S$ y6 o( A& g Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
; N* ^' p5 Y4 }- d8 Z% R: [ minimize any downside risks.
! a+ M! ~2 a" E4 m- ^ H4 _& |$ b - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market2 ?! u7 H6 ~- W+ w6 Y9 q6 H0 `3 w% a
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
N( V: l# U7 v/ i/ y( x+ p- ] unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
! B `( S- q) Z0 R 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 ]. L- s" T9 W0 {# b, f# V being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ m: ~* j( i9 E. _+ B. a$ R
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in; x. q3 p5 ^, z1 g. t5 v- p
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
7 `, @6 x5 |6 d$ M9 l- ^$ N1 } far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
0 \" }1 \6 t, K, Z; i9 c$ g4 H reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: e- Z! k5 U T1 t ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only! I+ q) ~ K/ A1 `* B
modestly in recent years.
! O: n1 B9 l2 ]' a - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the( |7 X& N9 _# |8 @
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ ?. N: R5 J; o4 _( v- @ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. ?( c7 D; C$ o; h price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
( f3 `0 {2 L! c) z, O following two years of deterioration.5 Z( S+ |) r" D+ J
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