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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
* G0 B/ F9 X; Q- c TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the( [5 @7 F% O7 t( z% N
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive w8 n. Q- e+ p, ~( W4 j
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions, m9 R2 s$ e6 A# [3 r/ ^
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
& F" a3 f; H# a( Z8 b6 E. ]0 U "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
: Q& S% M. G9 ^1 a& _! Z8 Lsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
; m) G( T- e; Jimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability8 i" m0 x6 Y u1 e3 J; f& s1 h
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."; t' V8 k9 o! D: M# \
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is* b$ Q- C) |$ w6 q: }( E2 N
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
7 c7 H, ^' a2 zwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have" F- y `1 q, S j0 \6 _) ^
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.& ^; a* _1 h1 n) e6 F8 @- X/ ?
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
# ]( b9 p" k2 z$ n4 k- yproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a6 m$ m( D6 }( L$ D. O5 W
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.4 f1 N5 D- Z/ n, h# b2 \( e0 y! v+ d7 l
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# r( Q$ w/ L/ k5 F0 Q* S2 {" s
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
" k( c. I; t) b9 n" T% i3 Lthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
4 x4 k1 B* U6 I2 @ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
2 y9 u6 T4 X$ r0 nmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
1 U2 p9 P G7 O) n. [6 l. sthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) g( ^ ~$ W1 A. c- Hhistorically depressed levels.
! r [! D7 @9 o7 o) \ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 ]4 I5 N0 f+ [of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* |+ u) n( `8 `+ Y0 Zprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
! ]# v1 ? \8 q, Xhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
5 c% u8 a! E2 |* fenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the0 x6 U5 K6 A! f8 b5 o9 P& s, ~
months ahead," added Hogue.
, G6 X: }1 j7 N3 Y' d6 s- k+ p RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
/ [+ `0 g0 K3 m' Ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
6 v' s; M$ A, a0 i6 z& m- I42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.: ? a0 y ?) B6 s
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
: ?; c) z6 k' u% k: ^5 ta broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, H8 g* T& |/ S
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only: v2 a4 H3 L( {
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
* [& c; }& ^$ b r The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
9 S" S6 }- E4 Sbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 k' y' [& N* F5 x! O6 L- d) Rbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented |; U) ]7 w# |' }2 P
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 y4 r6 {& t4 d! d3 M
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
; a0 k0 k' H& m! R' `% L RFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
# G5 l9 P6 k& I0 v! @' [costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ u" x9 \7 Y" ]) I2 S [/ ?
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
! j' q4 J' Q2 J# v
. J8 J1 N. B- b" i9 f <<( ~" R4 y, a! G5 b6 c0 I
Highlights from across Canada:5 u6 C, _2 L, d, n" x# A$ a
# }, B5 Q( t8 e. ?; V - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
# P0 F+ Y5 U& f( n3 ?, H) l8 j) E intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
_. R/ _- @& b. g$ |3 P home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
0 b/ _9 H9 Q: _& l- g" N0 U5 { only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track: k; y7 M! U; d. ]
since about the middle of 2007.8 _# v# \, @- f8 f
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the4 C) w: \7 ]3 c8 P, ]' x* m; ]
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to4 ^+ s2 [) b/ [6 Y8 F3 [% ], X
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' f& M+ O t7 h! I/ W! k2 R! b largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
+ b8 I- l. H$ v5 E5 }- d poor affordability levels.
' i- Y" h7 _7 W& u$ w - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the6 l1 n8 t. \& D5 y& g
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
' T; b- @7 D4 }- Z) k prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.5 k% ]8 F K& u8 k5 K# x7 h" ^
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
$ x# J; C6 k: @" x( q0 b minimize any downside risks.4 G* v8 ?! p# |! `+ N' e
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
: u' @. q0 c0 u' Z) O conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is; ^% ~2 Z3 k8 a( X: m4 q* ]
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early! {7 V( V5 G7 `4 k0 g
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
( F( O7 v' D1 w# ~: K+ j m$ l being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
+ C Y t5 ]: [! g" W' I - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! S6 d* Z Y! q- m Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 {# N! t& z7 N! r
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- L. q# n' z2 Y! D" K
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be+ B }3 l- q8 @4 O* Y+ ^
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, v# m7 ^8 a$ S2 |' V/ M/ i1 B6 G
modestly in recent years. a. l: z0 i' z" I+ W: @4 H
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the; _: W& t4 \" n: J7 w
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot6 A, A0 V& Z" s
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ ^! C2 U- A$ J: H. }/ U5 d' o; z1 l
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 T& I" M9 G; o* P following two years of deterioration.
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