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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( ]8 z* {. p' s- Q3 ^
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
; b1 C# E; S+ k. Wmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
9 f: U; n' Q9 b8 t5 y0 `( j9 ygains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,, [- }$ k% P2 K+ M5 l; @3 D1 x
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
# r1 S. N/ j: y1 k2 @0 h "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,") y2 A: |: [2 k# U
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
/ \& N) j# \" o3 u4 o% b* f- simproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& u5 K: j. `0 ^1 c4 t I5 S4 Tmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
& u u5 a6 n. _% T! X& r RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 q5 K% W' u, J/ n0 p" {% ~worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
+ q$ w9 k: f& q& [which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
5 Q( n! z+ Y- {3 g2 t# Csustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.0 x& P/ r% K3 V! g
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the8 D9 s) w/ w: t# H: `& _' E
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
: d3 w) q( F5 i& W3 I7 r' g/ Vhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
3 _" x3 e5 v$ A( _Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the8 W" T( u/ v4 S& g7 ]5 H, k( D; A3 G
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and z! X2 U; W, C9 `% x, d/ f
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
8 m% r2 a0 p- A; E& R; o According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets! U: R8 p$ C* v5 ]& F% L* X' d
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
" x$ |, A* y; K& ~- J; J( a! @the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 H9 v7 M4 {* {
historically depressed levels.7 V6 p( ~' P5 _7 x
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ T( o. V3 K! K: ~8 ?( e; o+ K9 fof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House K( ^" |9 S8 R% M6 h6 K; ~* l
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 n8 s! G* C) E! p
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
9 X* E, c0 m" n6 t" v* Aenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
+ b6 Y) _+ [, _months ahead," added Hogue., J5 _% g) E0 x0 N1 G$ D3 U6 `* s
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
9 [6 Z2 K1 M1 R& {1 x2 icities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
. q3 F) ?1 ]$ L) y/ F42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
' O6 v1 r e- E s8 T# v The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 R4 w7 o2 k) Ka broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these. H/ W/ C$ r- W+ |/ Y1 w8 I3 ^! z
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only. @1 R/ d4 [7 d7 Y6 t
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account." z% [8 C ?( c+ I
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
. y% o; l5 i* f9 v. \' P4 @) sbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property- @1 S2 m/ C0 G; A# V3 A
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented9 m* ]$ I3 {( T$ t
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( ^$ u" ~! A' v2 _
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
$ I& G" P* U! h$ aFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership$ g- w+ S7 U( |& c
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
# x; X- h. W1 Vper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.) ~8 \$ E6 X$ [8 B1 M, ?' D" M
) z, p, M' d4 \5 P8 M- y
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6 r: S( f3 D+ a Highlights from across Canada:
; d4 z) @! P! `; M2 |
/ r* ], n/ h' s( l( M' l- Z; d - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
* M/ |0 o2 }- `8 f" c intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
. L2 h1 _, r# F5 N w home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% R6 F1 x9 G7 G' M5 w! [& o+ o only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
$ Q/ C0 p! C1 u- t3 P' ~ since about the middle of 2007.
( R5 u. O9 ?% a! f/ j+ C - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
% ? t X. U- S frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to9 @! L0 C! I' s z4 j
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still. ^1 f5 \# K# v7 F) H; S" k3 s
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
! x) _5 S( e; V, ~' U+ @; k% w poor affordability levels.
( c( w2 k, o9 Q - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
" H- [0 H8 H: ]+ j vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
3 Z% l# n8 d% _2 R W& r, B prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
# F8 x! `. z7 {- {5 B Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to' ~5 W& `* { T& v: t+ @
minimize any downside risks.
: M6 c8 y& M: c/ H - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market3 }/ C8 ~9 o0 |9 }
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
# }# `% k7 w3 R2 D, i$ x; z0 q unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
% ?1 e) e* a( M" C* l 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
" i `, ~3 h3 m. H1 H5 } being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
" k" N) w- ~/ y. }$ T, v" j - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, O5 N4 t. a8 n6 {4 z9 p0 x Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
* }+ @+ D7 J+ ~; b far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
4 O" t" X2 C: x reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
( d2 b; }, b& `8 Z1 w0 n! P ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
: E. A, x7 W, t; j modestly in recent years.
) X/ A8 o" a9 {, \/ O' V - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the" H* k7 c& n q. a5 f7 v6 J
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot8 ~" h1 Z4 u, K6 K. e$ r5 R* H* A
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
: U/ o# R- Y! U6 J2 Z price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! y% s+ \. n9 n1 q6 Z G, B7 @
following two years of deterioration.8 p, v4 h( R M/ w
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