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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
9 k3 q3 ~$ @3 K6 J: { TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the M: F' U* }' x( S, O- C9 g% ^- V' H
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
% ]2 w' t1 E+ J4 \7 S, O$ jgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
: @! k( k+ U: Z# j: l& haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
\1 g$ ^- q- E( Z& g- @/ a' G "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
" _' c% \8 @8 _9 F8 b; ?. vsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is# @5 }" x# n h2 L
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! Q. D# v9 D8 m3 \; f) cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
, D6 W6 k2 w( w3 @* D( {! E RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 {" t' v' t9 F f( p" E
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
7 l9 }0 |, u+ T* I3 iwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
- ?6 [! n# R' H" G$ c% C( w! y X8 ^5 wsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" l H6 }) `- {- z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
4 M, |1 f; E3 h' d4 ?8 D; aproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a3 b1 B9 @' z. i5 o
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
. h: ]4 \$ G( c/ f! V) |Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 }6 f3 q( a7 F Z! O# r
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and* x! f. u, u- `, f: h- F
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent. [& Z& d: \/ J( R3 \
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
1 w$ j; X" N& r4 n6 Q. `! _6 D* o! b7 q3 qmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in. [4 T: I/ H7 }+ n' v
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at/ X# P. d1 W& s3 L7 Y Y
historically depressed levels.. M9 g4 G5 o1 I: ~
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost2 t7 t* ]. g1 a! m4 \# a
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
) i) C# y$ Z5 ^9 ]prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
, w9 `* U$ v8 ^% g9 N' t2 chands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This$ |2 X0 O. V0 m0 [$ i+ ^
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the! A) Z$ Q) t/ u! n2 [. [$ H
months ahead," added Hogue.8 n7 a* V) V2 D$ u# d5 u% c, C
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
/ h+ p/ H; V( Y1 I% C* Wcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary# e' @" N3 ?4 Z2 [+ F
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- G8 ^& K$ {# c& {. j/ }2 K6 m The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for) ^. @$ ^" f3 W
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
$ T% m' \2 D" o; Zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
+ H* v% A& P* g- o$ E& Qtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: _; w6 Q$ L: ]2 C# Y( U4 ^
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is7 q! ^$ D# O% y5 v& K2 J7 V
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
! Q" |! W! R0 ^% P+ _1 vbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
/ a5 ?' Q- q! R+ x. xincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard0 }, G; w0 N3 C$ Z) H
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
7 T! c! }$ @. z' a6 UFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 n& T3 b8 O9 g. A+ scosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
* f. B: t6 i- m! \# v0 k/ x5 lper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income., K; n3 n6 H' @
8 E' w- V, ^% B" q7 }3 Q! B0 X# K& P <<
! X4 G' F Q0 V8 j Highlights from across Canada:. `# ^+ d V0 n$ ~7 S
+ b1 l6 U& e" K! v _. B; g
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
/ C/ z8 L( o3 ]* h& g intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 }! A B% V0 A( P: ? home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- S/ W0 Y5 u: C3 F4 c) h3 g only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
$ c6 E- [/ k; S since about the middle of 2007.
x$ p5 t! o# t" o - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the' ]; W0 I! z1 w7 f V9 L# D0 s
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
6 K9 E& X( M( X' c2 W decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
}+ P) k8 \, s9 p" _+ ` largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( i4 ^0 P+ u5 u2 b- e9 f poor affordability levels.
: p9 A4 U% k" c6 a/ P - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
( s6 y2 R) l8 X9 E B) r% }4 z: l' Z( z4 v vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
! D5 F' h, U6 S2 R: D prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" O9 G0 o- [6 t$ D/ z# [# d Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 }3 p8 t8 B! O
minimize any downside risks.; _1 R: o M9 ]. [5 T
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; h$ H }# o! v k conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) u! |( d) G9 U
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early% f# Z) Q" Q/ z1 Q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' X: x2 v; I' i! _- g
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ K, L& H" S" x: L8 z; s
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in' m* | w4 E$ n, b0 \3 C" E) e
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 U2 Q+ t. r( P; }
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up7 Y# e$ l/ ^1 G+ r/ k8 l8 c
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) c0 u2 U" q) d8 o ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only b. V# q: s4 A
modestly in recent years.
0 ^% q6 m$ e) I' q - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) M. T! g9 v# T! D0 U
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! p3 k- A0 i+ v$ C3 g
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
( ?" P5 m+ a$ o. K2 b price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
3 ]- R: ^; A9 r' b( W1 f following two years of deterioration.
3 t# D" \% z: ]9 V' ~. E/ U >> |
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