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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC / O0 t/ w& ?- K! k1 k0 g9 a
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 h' N: t( R. i- O" O& w( U
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
$ G/ ?1 r. Y8 _' j4 N( Vgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 B1 x+ `1 s" p9 `( jaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
% X* Y: a* _; u/ ]3 l. H "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"' @ k; D. f7 f. q! Q
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
1 U$ f v# z& V4 v& `improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
4 ~5 ~; `* N% }! imeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."- o' O' ?7 ~3 ^" n& K
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
. q# N0 f e8 {& w0 X! Iworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- w$ k! A# B' e
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have9 ?9 V' X( _* X
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
' c7 F, ^/ \$ e+ V0 n6 y8 _: u+ A The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& R+ W6 B, T* A! k0 L/ r+ ]
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a( C: W2 q) B9 o' q) q; w
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 O( Z3 W9 X; ]& R( _5 gAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the% s3 G; g2 E9 T$ _ B8 A
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
u2 w4 ?: p0 ~the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
6 J/ d j( E0 {. N+ F$ ] According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets* S$ L9 n6 Q/ b; c/ L
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in9 e& a1 W* M# I: T) y
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at0 d% X$ F0 L# k5 A* P9 q9 u/ O
historically depressed levels.- e% K8 y3 N+ H' Q0 g* |
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 ]3 Z, a# T r' g- [' a
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House* P# E- a1 f0 s4 t) m
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the6 t/ I& g0 L3 ~, W
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
! e( m5 j( P$ k( e6 Z0 S* Venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the X+ u2 \5 ~$ o: p" K; s6 N4 P
months ahead," added Hogue.& q- @9 I, e/ [
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
/ }, {* B( S4 g+ a3 ?4 zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% o+ ^' p% Y) a4 M. o
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.: ]! y$ O& \! M7 K( Y; J
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for0 h; Y2 \5 i1 ], Q" ^6 o6 x
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
( M9 Z7 o5 m9 Z/ R! D( t0 l& {1 mcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only; `3 w' {# }8 C3 U
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.% I) O& Z; x0 C
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is7 r: }( E" ]) B: H% o
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property! R- p; z2 q. X; I
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
' |) G Y, K6 ?5 E% gincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard/ v& L1 k% u7 j- u' N* r! C m
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.9 X5 N/ W/ ]0 Q2 {! [4 R
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
- b: T9 j& p2 V, K2 X: N: t8 lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% a4 v! ?3 z$ C: l2 f' V, k% q! I; t
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.5 Z# A/ Q, n3 O1 A2 G7 P* G( i
' b* f$ ^" a; i << z5 |. Z2 r7 R7 N0 S- ~% j
Highlights from across Canada:# J# N. r5 \" O
. X5 y! F; m/ E3 C
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
: c: S% C, f4 z4 }0 R intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; m% ?1 h2 r, { home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound7 T' }4 o" l. \2 U+ D
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track$ u' a! l7 Y& N/ s W, q8 v* i
since about the middle of 2007.
5 o; y$ L5 l& t/ r - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" s; x3 j, A8 v) g$ X. y+ X0 x) r frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
* Y' T2 e3 [( q5 ?, I decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
5 M; N0 Z2 G$ \# ?& w! p: ? largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( T2 }7 O2 C# \1 W( A8 N
poor affordability levels.
: m# W- C- Z& i/ ^: X - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
+ I0 I0 _7 G* d vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and; J' }- \- M1 H* D- g) L
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
5 y7 D N$ ?4 m2 V$ T5 d/ { Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to; [' D2 A2 E& n! \0 O8 P
minimize any downside risks.
2 N% y$ J0 G$ t! t7 Q. b( M - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! N3 _6 Z$ a7 j! [( _3 }3 ?
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is- _2 I% d, o- [1 r$ s
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
9 L3 S; M2 B0 a: I 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly7 o" u8 l. d. j6 i; G- J( ], E) A
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.$ G7 Y; N3 X' Y" p$ @/ B5 f( x0 Z
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in, ~! ]& w A) A, s
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 L: M6 F( W" S; m" F
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 A: n$ {" F: @0 I7 W5 j reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. y+ f# B( ~ R4 {0 @1 d/ [* j4 u ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 N) N9 x! ^4 j7 J
modestly in recent years.
% p: X5 m2 N5 j& R8 y' n - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
* t* s' V5 s2 A, j& t general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot' ~0 }0 X* P0 c6 ~
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ [4 M) c3 |) t, W
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
/ o7 b$ J& V+ P% N( l7 W* W following two years of deterioration.8 i1 F( V9 N) |: H. M- V) z
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