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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC " S5 L, M7 _% t# b' i
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the* B6 R2 G- }' k; Q4 P5 X+ d# b
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
) Q9 E x4 |, c# ogains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
" ?$ J* Z* ?' H" v0 E( F: ?* eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 ~2 x, g4 w' A$ @3 Y( z9 G) K "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,". N: [7 S, A1 z1 G! X6 G3 Z
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is) e/ V) B1 ^- P7 G0 {: N
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
% m3 y, E- `! t$ O2 Q5 u( }measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
3 n6 C+ h, P" \ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
8 V% V' h. }. z4 I; X8 X8 d/ eworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: T& r& K' i% ~& Mwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
- }* A' |) K! n6 E$ D6 O* `, Vsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.& n6 [% H* O2 z3 ^- O0 K
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
N( V) @3 @; v8 Z+ wproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a+ Z3 y. K1 n. V7 v
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ a) Z$ z6 d" ^- `2 C/ N5 J! e+ ]Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the/ k( [8 G8 T1 B( ?: f
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
! G! b+ H+ M, N& ithe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. r5 {( ?- R2 S& X8 c
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
0 m' p% E' e, `4 E( {5 gmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
$ T0 ]1 m2 j) g' P8 @the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at1 y! V# q6 n5 R2 _ [0 w
historically depressed levels.# ?- U4 {: ^' O F2 p9 z# m$ v. @
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
+ c9 d5 y, B. g2 r4 V oof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
3 H1 v7 c* Z! t( Cprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
3 ]) J* e& Z3 N8 v6 q% f* zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This) o: K' [1 H7 j
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
) v$ @* \- F+ w/ J+ s0 s7 h) q! Emonths ahead," added Hogue.
* k, d3 A9 D: Z1 s( Y6 L RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest6 \# z0 j) n: B3 B" _$ E d
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary, q& d4 ?/ @9 v
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
3 K, q: M$ e6 M% @6 H The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
- E% J8 b) U# x, ?( R$ A5 V% va broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- W* N, R9 T$ J; p& O
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only5 d6 \7 U; Y2 ^$ I
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.2 v, ~4 O o2 `1 Y0 j2 Y
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
. X# f2 H9 I2 O: ^2 D% Rbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 G" B: h- w, Y' Vbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
7 ^4 ]8 u# S+ l/ Yincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( t+ t- M' k3 j. _8 M& P; l, G
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
2 y- P% V# t$ C. h7 {For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership8 Z8 @! [! w& q; I
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% l# R2 g, `; h3 k+ K! n/ E
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.5 K- A N# `0 o7 t) }
- V5 c! f& g0 P* F k, u0 b" Z1 L! D <<
+ l- T2 Y- V- o) Q, Z. Y Highlights from across Canada:$ F+ ^, \ z( d' ^
% w: k( a) L( a5 y
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* ~' @" t; }" n* r- X2 Y4 |1 Y% Z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( _: \3 k2 O. w- {9 O: D- }
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound9 M& l& ^/ ^8 J" M) ]
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track: I3 T, E5 G0 b. a1 A. P$ m0 i9 {% b
since about the middle of 2007.( a ?! x0 T% n) A, [+ a- [: {
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the( b9 L" U& u6 T- f0 b- |* E
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to, R; `& g z' y* j" ]
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still" F( V8 Z6 d- o! t: r
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
2 {1 ^. d- ^3 z7 L& h poor affordability levels.
1 r; \9 ]* H, R - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 w' V5 {" G5 S6 Z: y( k; C vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and, z7 c% C C- u- Y0 V; \
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly. j, b) M0 I& c+ t& L
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to: j/ d. _. ] c+ z! H6 l& Z
minimize any downside risks.
" C$ ~* T* j* U2 [- g* O6 _! d - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market/ F: h1 b' r7 T# r; m. }% H# P
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
5 C: t& w" q$ y: r4 [9 u. D unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
, x* ~6 X" {, V) f9 b& ^ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
- p) b/ G7 }' A" k! w! ` being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 f$ C" I! N/ p1 ]1 w1 T9 a - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# t0 U/ U3 v& W* b; p. r" x9 Z# j
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
" P% G3 L& F% o3 L: {- d far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up( R3 m2 P3 _) [& s0 Y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 ^; A% U, A+ |6 n3 Z# i
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 C' O$ x" l, q. _9 E( M& n& K9 Y
modestly in recent years.
5 o; N2 z0 c; x1 i# | - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
# ~- F, h8 Z6 L general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
' _# f8 A0 V+ \5 t7 M7 P6 R spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
! D9 `' |4 w- f( i; E' B% \. B! S price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
) }6 n- W) Y. V2 z) J following two years of deterioration.
- v. {% n& y4 v& ~ ^9 A2 M% V ? >> |
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