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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
2 `4 k( K) S$ m* j3 G; ] TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the. N" ?" V- E, U" @: Y5 q1 |
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
/ B* w; I8 D2 n; l. R' s: f8 {9 Pgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
& y ?9 @) O+ T( Haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
' U9 G+ @+ N: x "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"5 {. j6 d& C/ T7 v6 Y
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is' G O5 f4 _8 P* y
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
s D8 i( b" p5 hmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."- \4 c9 Q/ Z) Y; J* f B( A
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
5 }( S2 o [6 H+ q% T: S1 U0 E& Dworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,. F% N; X+ `3 J. z6 W& ]
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
. W2 W M6 h( {& a: q+ S& j+ w" R2 ^& Hsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* L) J6 f5 L, S The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: H" q" F0 B; v! x& k: t3 ~$ a; M7 gproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a, ?6 y* w7 B) O& t/ R; V/ X
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
" _9 E" e1 O4 ~+ i2 `' n: L, u$ FAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the& q' h; T4 w: p1 B: X2 d
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and- p8 W$ a L- H4 g
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.- f/ D; Y9 Q4 |- D# f$ z3 n
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
1 T3 i4 R3 J' s2 D4 Zmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) v. \( r+ p; Z1 Ithe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
- j% e& O0 a4 B4 u; m% Fhistorically depressed levels.
, a% N% g- r, b Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost/ J2 j8 u! W% v; D
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; m9 W8 c2 V4 m6 e# L( Xprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the+ D. a8 G+ G) B8 S+ F
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
. Z J) S* s s+ r& p- ienormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the5 f6 _) K% Z Y3 `$ L9 \) A3 J
months ahead," added Hogue.$ G' N$ S0 ?2 {( `2 K) d! K
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest4 ~$ g: Z) y7 j" ^
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
3 @/ Q* w& H! U42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. L! D* I0 e e. k
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. c& N! i% Y9 Y4 Z
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
$ _' q+ v- ]7 T! a. T. ^+ xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
' b6 y8 W) A4 M- u# d+ k$ |takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.) N7 V3 \2 R* U9 ]
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is* B7 g! ]4 K# w! D6 D' j
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
7 K2 {2 i9 B9 H, W' E9 [benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented& r( y# T1 I! a2 E6 a
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
) T* {. I! g' r. R/ acondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.0 d6 y/ m1 A0 `8 r) L' J
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
( ?2 | i; }5 ]2 l6 kcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 y3 X* M6 e' B6 l) E1 u; f; a
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.5 ~# B4 K& l( X9 g7 u3 [4 }
7 Q7 H" f m# [$ i0 f) \- I1 w
<<8 _' k2 j+ q5 m. w0 S
Highlights from across Canada:
* B, U" R" I T5 V2 E( ]5 _. O: k9 p [4 }1 L0 L! m4 ^6 @
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
5 k( ^; z: @' {$ _5 X* G intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ w& O* C% n( N
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound) J8 [, F7 d! s. k1 I) }$ f
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
) M9 ?% I- F0 Z since about the middle of 2007.
( Y* e1 C& b* X# i) f- a - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
5 O. R, o( d7 }4 W frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# p9 g( K7 Z ^ c f
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
( l7 H1 X$ w: i3 O+ _; U1 P+ k" { largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
& b5 @" {" x( u2 ?0 O' J% A- d. u1 x; r poor affordability levels.
* K; |' l# [5 w6 ]5 ^5 H - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
! S% [: n t* K; n vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and9 D2 c* n" ~6 x" t" S
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
2 ~' S# l: b* J9 G* U2 q4 q L Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 | a$ _; n7 ]+ j( i3 I' O- K
minimize any downside risks.
4 r9 [ y8 Z t& V - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market3 v6 B/ O V m! n$ K
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
3 k, Y( c! V# r' L& ]; | unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ W. x( N2 a+ A8 U) ` 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 t# j0 i5 @6 ` being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
' s& x) _+ P' X; v5 i, _( T1 i6 K) t - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 I8 u' J+ K% z# L; ? Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
0 E6 q6 g5 S1 Y2 w# t6 R+ U6 } far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
& g# @6 E0 m/ [, j1 J$ {4 X1 M reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" x: b) M1 {8 Q) z ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
! M) K) f6 K) }! ` modestly in recent years.9 R/ Z) Q, Q3 [3 R0 H. S* N
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
8 b* P. A8 f! R" ^8 K& g general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
, i% F0 j x( n( x" Z spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
1 Y& f8 B# R) u% y- V q. A4 E( k0 W0 J price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
/ w, T* a8 P& U% T+ C/ a! f following two years of deterioration.
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