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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 8 ]- B2 N2 I: u/ |$ H9 x; P! l! V
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
; S: W6 n& M/ l0 R* ]middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive2 J+ k6 Z- Z4 ~% m) y8 Z/ x
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
$ v3 V' J6 v f* maccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.- p) R7 W0 O5 U$ c+ W
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"- [# q) R+ C1 n1 T- W$ t* D
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 | h1 s6 L- e' x! vimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 F5 c; _) q7 H* N
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."2 Y" d2 u( K' X/ `' `/ m
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is6 t+ f ^9 B$ E+ O6 G+ z7 L6 @
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
+ b9 P5 g9 T. l8 k( ^which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! R( l3 E! ]6 tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
5 l( m4 T4 y' p h The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 \# B7 }4 q4 g0 Z" T& G1 N, iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# i3 [3 y; h/ H) x( O
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 n3 y0 B5 o6 A% `" w* JAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
* I8 p- d8 }7 V5 \6 k. @$ |standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
- A5 ~. c! t( O! G6 _: mthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
7 W5 O* U+ C% H1 C6 r According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 [8 A' L& o9 v2 p4 z/ I+ k
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
: J+ m! L$ }! f( ythe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 r7 I4 x+ M# y* {4 l& yhistorically depressed levels.
2 R' s' P. I% p/ w Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 t5 ]6 b D. y N; r
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
0 k4 }' b8 I* F1 U( pprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the% }- H8 X9 B/ ]! @0 q
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
/ q2 ?5 {9 x3 c4 ?enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the; O: i* i5 s `1 H
months ahead," added Hogue.
, @3 A/ a2 j& k9 p RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
2 \0 s/ n) o$ D% Acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
. G" o* ]2 ]3 A/ S% g" f# Q! F42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ C4 @$ a& C& Q. _: ~ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
; _/ F. R0 g; l; @! q3 ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, Q# ]7 F& `, S0 w6 B6 z! W8 l& u" D
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
8 |/ u+ j$ U$ dtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
2 A& M$ o% f4 G* u- n8 y The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is- z4 \7 o6 V3 H
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
/ G0 Q! `- ^; j% bbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented4 }! }0 N1 m8 I: O' A) [ k8 X. w
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# C% @7 \7 E$ |- S5 M4 ^condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.7 s( y# H% x5 a" p( ~) |" }6 [
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership( a& G1 b/ Z4 D8 t
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
# S4 \5 W* B4 f$ B( S9 ~$ {per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
$ A$ W- b3 ] U* v7 {; E' Z8 Z" `! y. A
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) O' n& ^' F5 ?5 k0 E. I Highlights from across Canada:) }1 f8 v$ [, R3 U" \4 }; ?
3 T0 X: Q" \# p6 p) i; @" b3 L. T
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has/ @5 H1 R6 Z b/ i: D. R: D* q
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
( y/ o* ~' X9 B: I ?! e, }% ~2 s; {- I home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
: X4 Z6 h4 S" r: m only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track% }1 ~# n8 |4 A Z
since about the middle of 2007.
$ }; L/ |4 U% z9 A6 L - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the7 b( M! W( ^3 H; r: R' L. {, @4 F* S
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
8 D, m9 v) k- U7 o* \5 C) P decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still9 B8 b- ~- L7 s8 b
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely8 j {# _$ J2 _: P$ H
poor affordability levels.
- S7 ]. b3 W' a1 F% S: I! L - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. M) H2 a# S% }, E& K& x6 i% \( p vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
( s. O K* Y& X0 O prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
q7 b4 p3 ` \6 D7 _7 G Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to$ p: ]8 t6 z$ K' g! `# q# F& {
minimize any downside risks.
+ B+ O6 B/ w2 G6 g' [, P' L - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market+ t8 G- S0 Q% x- a
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, G% Z# N1 l6 K3 }0 w unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' z. R* c+ I. _2 Z& i5 b0 Q3 T 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
$ j+ D$ N) s I being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.6 J2 Y7 Q/ q! B+ \- `9 |6 A" `, k
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# D8 L, Z. g" n; h; r+ ] q
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
! w$ w& \ Q V- |/ a far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# ^* T$ h& Y' F, d% y reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! I- ^; h F' v$ J6 W u ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- R, O4 O% H$ r
modestly in recent years.
- k+ r" l6 ~0 Z, \ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 l9 Z, s8 Q3 q, |
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
, g0 ]4 }% z7 T3 y) `2 z spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
+ s& `* ~6 C4 Q Y2 R price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
8 [* {! _6 P+ b: I1 _2 y following two years of deterioration.( v' x) K) e( E/ b# U
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