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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 3 w) E3 X7 ?6 C0 f2 G1 S
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
9 f$ x3 R4 j, smiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
1 Q" h3 ~+ C% y; J6 Vgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 E! Q/ A% C& m7 B; b
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
. K9 e! e- t% `; W! t' ` "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
2 k+ i( S0 @9 tsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is U3 A- T. Z% O8 s7 e" |: B( V* x
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" X* y" h# p1 W9 O$ e" J8 A0 dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."- O& E' B9 m0 X+ A
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is! }- j! |! y/ @- u! o, [
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
5 a4 ]5 d" w2 M5 J) p2 @' awhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
' e: Q; o% n; ^0 a& G' psustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" \/ ~2 F" B3 k. p+ D9 j1 b. x The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the6 [7 v1 P) h0 X& {9 ]) Z8 s& c
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
' [9 g4 l: `: mhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
; O. z0 Z1 |( u9 Q Y& c5 w* wAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" R' Z, K7 \ H q# n% |
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# t* y) l) I& F: C
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.& l" J% J6 p. H3 U: G
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 L f2 N$ }' E. b8 f: T9 C8 V
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) L* M5 P8 z! \( b; gthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
' c/ [+ i/ C" v+ ?" _! x. shistorically depressed levels.; u1 R$ w/ S1 ~: H
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% [7 Y+ Q3 H, Z6 }+ z) Oof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
9 H) p7 ~, C4 X5 X- eprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& J0 ~" \- l' X. _, y8 `
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: @; R# I+ N( y; n5 V' }9 p% ~% [0 b) Ienormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the( l: B' C9 x6 n" J; p8 a
months ahead," added Hogue.! o3 a. A" X1 A/ `& ?6 _4 y; K4 i
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
8 \+ n) P- ], Hcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
* N8 `* G* U, L2 @4 u; }% `& ]42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
3 r! e q0 I$ E3 C8 l The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for; B9 Z4 L+ x3 [8 Z' o
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these$ U$ n9 o; k- R8 w; m" m6 `
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
+ K3 U9 Z. ^- w! ^0 otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.+ ?( e( [# u4 _7 N
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
0 {$ M5 u- \: Dbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property( J4 E8 }/ C6 e" J$ Q8 T0 O2 G$ l
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented0 t* P' P5 y s/ D& L# j/ w
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# w& P% c' y* L3 c5 y4 \. \0 Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.4 o/ A( f/ \4 X( P, @
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
! O/ ~* r/ c& e2 Mcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 507 H: Z4 |9 c- @5 ~1 n _' ?+ \0 g
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.; O$ N6 F; k3 h1 J
* W- u0 N( u5 p) d. k- p: j2 |
<<8 C% W$ u+ j4 u4 b1 w' M$ M
Highlights from across Canada:
( p4 `/ W j+ Q" \/ i# D8 |
9 P% `6 P' q7 C5 H' D - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has; `1 ] v- u: U3 x
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 M g8 P" k+ Y+ g/ g
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
6 j2 p8 P4 z1 W; `9 h7 A) `# x8 G" D only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 ~4 i9 O7 q) B9 S3 {' @7 C2 | since about the middle of 2007.' _$ O r: e, B1 f- x8 |
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# }5 q( R) k. A3 j' z
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
" B0 Z4 L5 C8 K decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
* z+ U* K. {1 _: {: A largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
) q, e* [0 n9 k4 @ poor affordability levels.
4 |% L3 ~0 U! M8 v: p7 B - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& c. U. r+ n+ ]7 e vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 t- b% m, R5 F' @4 Q
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.- o: q) m% Q0 v! t# F
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to* H6 P- M1 ]7 @3 D8 g, j* ]
minimize any downside risks.! j! L8 c. T2 h5 W
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
. ~$ j2 n- G( k* _$ K( M conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
9 y+ J( ^7 }' C- D" O. @ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
: w, B$ B: N( o+ W3 j 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly- \" c+ r, m$ m- f6 g
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.* F; G" Y- R! T' m0 N, o( `
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
8 B7 N9 L, ]$ {8 ~' G Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus: W" M! M/ q* W. s Z* A, R& T
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# Y( G$ D$ ^% u7 n reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* U+ `. k6 ~' w; N* D; h7 E' K! l ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, D! ]- f9 y" H' T* z
modestly in recent years.+ z& @7 O6 x! r/ \1 G& ?
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
' x# i8 T+ ~9 ^! t+ n# g& t general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
7 b4 p8 y, H2 d, w0 {+ a" l7 t* z spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
- A- Y( \ c# u |0 F8 e, m# X price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
* t3 M, `6 M4 {( w2 ? following two years of deterioration.
% O7 W* J& g* j- K >> |
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发表于 2009-4-15 19:05
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