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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 X0 ?5 S& C' i, ? TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the) | X) z# t8 @, |& Y
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- K4 H+ y) K% I! h" h. W
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
) o' ~# {/ h& i3 H8 paccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.% ^3 y: Q% T* d# V+ T1 H7 ~
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"% {; A q1 U0 c6 r/ v
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
% \5 \* t2 g9 i: ^7 v! d/ Jimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
* x* k" v- E! k, qmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."1 k8 @) U: e% h6 `- X$ ?
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
% s% m' e) B. c C$ H7 @/ n# nworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,7 d7 x( g. m; w$ O M9 ~# g* r
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
1 l6 N, O2 w4 @" D8 h7 Csustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.# K/ T* A+ _* v" X- h% } d5 c- o
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
. h% v- m; ^' d, q5 uproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
6 v0 H! E, j. r2 Dhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ O$ ` F' }3 g2 g* G. _Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the- T' ]: _0 _; z/ Q/ w. i# t
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and- B L8 Y* C% r5 ~0 H: f
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.% a$ V/ D* s, p( J' z* q( m) `
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ W' a6 K @- l. Mmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
5 a5 t0 u9 ^ D! z2 ~! Z$ othe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
* k0 {& z7 o0 O8 X4 rhistorically depressed levels.
: T) o7 o6 k2 s: W Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 l2 e: V' n* A$ Tof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
) w: u2 _+ \2 Z/ @1 Oprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" |* L3 [! Q6 N6 j* R4 }/ E2 rhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This5 u; c8 d* L" g
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 e# {& [" `: `3 o" W3 r: ~& l0 amonths ahead," added Hogue." h& ^. G- r; Y& M7 _( A
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
& `% G2 `$ w( S* B5 Q6 Tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
, I, u6 B+ B* K. _42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 L( W5 H- [* A. S) Q2 N
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
4 _3 c. y; g6 C- v' _a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' t) [- u" G- C2 e1 a4 D" Z% Q, y5 Fcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 E% N3 q) G9 X% y( M dtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
' j$ L; [! A7 c- R7 z$ U( [ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is, P- D, x, F! c6 V+ U+ q7 m
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) S3 Q1 u% v. m+ ~ ~benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented6 `( i" _$ p$ ~' ~- B0 N z# ^, F
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
7 ^2 _$ l, [) s- b: U5 ?, X: econdominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.0 H! v5 C* r$ M9 v, \
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership0 t* L4 E3 Z0 \7 Y) H
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50) I- C, ~1 j- q0 d0 z
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
* |8 t7 C! M" Q' z# w
+ Z: m$ R5 Y. a( N0 M$ x! h) p <<+ T& t& B: F5 H4 m- d0 A
Highlights from across Canada:' `8 t; {* g, Y$ B' G6 ~
5 R! ]4 @& a! p5 P
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has& ~/ I( k# ~9 n$ x( t7 @. \% ]
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing$ g5 i) A: t# [1 X9 n0 | P: w2 d
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 ]- L- O, s y2 J) d only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track; i2 t& b- g) t5 |1 w6 z
since about the middle of 2007.
0 K2 K$ c6 g- E$ P9 g0 l1 c8 v - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the; w+ ~0 [1 q- J& P5 W3 f+ l
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& B- U3 P3 Y3 p" |7 A9 T" P' l; `' Q decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
* K% d. A I+ z1 T largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely6 I% s* R2 ]5 Y& Q G( X8 Z' C
poor affordability levels.
" M& v0 g3 o X3 S( n - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
0 T4 Y' F+ n. u- {6 r( H% k0 C vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 L I0 v2 t* M1 e8 ^3 h3 [2 e prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
! @% q1 X8 G' C, ]* n4 S% m9 n1 | Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to Z9 j% y' H' P9 Y1 q) \0 A5 L
minimize any downside risks.
8 V0 m3 ]3 C% f5 ^; Z z+ [1 k - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
" @8 w% e3 I$ i0 J conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ o- p" t& b/ |1 u! d0 U8 K, B
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early% b+ g Q t7 b }2 k
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly0 N0 s4 K% J% U9 M0 v* v; n
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
: x; ?1 k# _( y" G. j3 b# v( K - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- d1 ]" G% W: l1 V* h4 u. _ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus1 t' C) y4 [- b2 k
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up9 F4 v- B4 h4 Y- f1 s
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 x' P, r k! [+ y7 M7 m1 r. Q, Y
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- i: V8 ]% d' j+ Z z4 T
modestly in recent years.
5 Q3 V1 A$ n% ^ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* u) j8 I% ^2 j0 K3 d
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% [5 \2 y% k' v5 y M( @- j
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
- u9 p; R' C8 F- y price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! k6 w s7 F& C7 f- `: |9 `
following two years of deterioration.: f) N! [! e2 P0 i$ d0 _+ r0 J
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