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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
" X9 E. u3 t9 s5 B7 S) V* c6 P$ ? TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the" `' z+ M' x/ Q7 z; a3 ]
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive s* \: }' }) W" e
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( f8 R: \1 [% v- P6 R4 S5 u( s
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.6 X, ?5 y8 t3 H. y8 ]
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"5 s' @) I8 o0 V! K3 a9 d
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is# A$ i$ s5 o$ [) v# }2 ?' E8 Y
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability6 p' j$ a' e; p
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# n$ C" s9 y+ K, X6 L9 }7 l
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
4 d( e) L- l1 P* L ?$ t/ cworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, M. D' O+ V1 _$ S1 } G) S/ q* {2 |which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
" p f, i7 K; y; T. _! xsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.6 d# s! b$ j+ p( A% I: [
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 X' z) `$ v+ ^4 i( N* o. ]
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a x! `: C; |6 A! `2 P! ?
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.) @6 b2 P- t. R' d' F. I
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the( J9 w( W% Q% `7 i
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
1 O# v9 }$ z0 i9 Ethe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 l0 B# O; C: E% [/ }! p According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
) A+ V7 d% G* k# {* imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in; F" c4 ^ s9 _ ?, C% P" H
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 S5 W$ U1 l8 l. t+ N; R- O3 r
historically depressed levels.
: J! [! e6 l6 E4 P$ K Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 c4 N7 h0 R1 [. P9 _. {8 \- ?
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House0 x: J* f! k9 ?
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 f6 \* A3 ]8 Z9 [3 ~. S( c7 A( A
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
* _5 K- s" j4 q" P$ senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
8 w5 P9 \1 O0 a5 W" nmonths ahead," added Hogue.
5 Q$ s/ |8 T7 a' \, i5 {' P4 B RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest- _' H1 k* i1 \+ u
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
: V3 [( \7 X$ D+ x: b" ]- c2 e42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent./ C2 U: N6 J4 l- j. m
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" y1 @) r" @( p' l
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these8 L. A& C) n' q
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
/ C, z6 @6 P; C; htakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. ^5 E4 w' |( G% I The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
6 u* C' c( _( z6 @* Y; Xbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
, a0 T9 j* A- Gbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
x* M! L. R: P6 V+ \/ z6 bincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# Z( |4 U+ C, V5 ~condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
6 v8 z4 |& x+ kFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
0 c" ~9 j) n, ~; e0 b# ~) }# ccosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 500 b9 _! ^. I: W
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
! Z0 y0 p% G, A" X1 d' X" N+ V* M# z/ V1 T- L- U4 R2 f V) w
<<
3 J$ g/ \0 {! L" ~$ \" B0 r Highlights from across Canada:
! U- [. h" N4 h6 i8 n+ J( d% f' l' P) t4 X& w/ |, J
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has. }6 t4 E* Z% A |
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
9 d9 U- _7 X! ^! q$ i0 w home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound9 h8 f0 S& G' K/ T) k
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
$ z8 w; e7 W8 F' {. c0 e3 i since about the middle of 2007.
4 f1 i* Z7 Q% `- n - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# @, z/ q* y. `$ d- h
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to1 T7 v! N' J3 y, Y" ?( U
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* ?% }, J- {7 h5 F
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
% s* |# p) ?: m; V poor affordability levels.' Z& X/ V( t s% ]
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the( u( ^" _" e* L. c+ i5 d
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 D e( T3 ~5 R5 z! U8 }
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
7 E7 b8 A# t; a/ P, e Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
+ P7 ^7 {4 g. A& |) P" d' Q% m. s minimize any downside risks.$ A: }3 @! b3 ]% Q# g- A
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
9 l9 }; r' v$ m J: U( n1 ^$ P& c conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
3 ?/ u; z& H( T4 I2 b6 q+ p! p/ R- h$ l unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early# z4 }" s0 e% ]- m W; h% }
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly$ N+ C/ z) f- f+ @7 z
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- g% s/ L2 q! ~. N - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
/ Z" J$ w7 c B! {( v4 @ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
, p% L. }% Z9 d, Y far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
; o& F" K: K- R$ A" M6 _ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be; @, b" x# N# I6 ^) R
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only* ^ [ s! E! C4 E
modestly in recent years.
+ I9 z! I# a/ \% }" ` - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
; B; m, w0 U$ I+ l- Z5 F( @; p: \ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
( ~( e* b# e6 a6 y spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward3 d! I" P6 `- ]7 _( V# D
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability# m# X& \( Q8 x+ D o+ {
following two years of deterioration.
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