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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
6 r% Y5 C5 W3 I, V( ~7 I" L TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& D) D: ^: x; w/ \4 B* e6 imiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
8 N; N$ l) J- m! T- `gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,' e; \1 ^7 J- z$ d% S" y$ c
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
; T y' h1 D& v; g5 q5 T "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
6 N" E) L# H$ @6 L* o u# [. Osaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is$ R0 _7 H6 X0 Q7 Z2 q. @+ k% Y
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
2 \8 g, m' y- P: z. Lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."; N, h- `6 n# A! t2 N6 A
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is+ R, `% {: C' w- r% l# j/ y
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
4 B n4 D" z% X" ~1 Pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 g9 h& a! U5 T0 s8 ~! L% bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" |, u, k, ]8 b% k7 p' ]& u; F The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the) r8 c2 l/ l7 [( j
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# b. g* l7 U; q
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.' r! X R9 ~7 ^" p+ `* L! u
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the8 g# `# m9 r, q7 M
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and" l0 _5 a# ^+ L
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
1 w W5 k+ {2 Q According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets* `1 V$ ^' ^5 h8 J# E3 O( [7 o
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in$ z. O3 V# C6 w: W- g+ p
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
* x9 Q* F4 y1 H% ghistorically depressed levels.
O9 d! Q f6 R! F6 l Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
4 b Z- M2 I8 ^- T' s( G1 U% Mof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
" A" d; b6 @# c6 B: g7 Tprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the0 x! ?% p( j% w( C- S
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 o* W K3 T$ p9 \enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the3 g' ~: B0 q' h4 R- R' n1 c# w4 _
months ahead," added Hogue.1 i# }) i7 V8 ?2 T- g( Y8 o
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
" J' {7 a0 V5 e: m3 w2 Mcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary+ h) n7 Z. J; j
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.# W' I8 H b/ u n& E! ^6 q5 x: H
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for/ v! U: I+ |, s2 ?* p$ H
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these J3 X" b2 r L b, \
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only4 ?8 g. R! ^- ]2 G
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. v' U: M2 ?2 a# ? The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ u# ~& i- j3 s/ _- k, E2 [based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
- J. D, q0 W+ qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" B, P* q4 }8 Z eincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard7 j* j: q: n2 h4 @0 b" _& p4 h
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.! |( m8 ] |7 y
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
, m% R# {) P2 r2 f& y% z% Bcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 S1 _# R' P# Q( i/ L
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.: h/ I/ ^, w$ s7 M6 |& S
- |5 X9 R4 |8 ?) f6 }
<<2 _3 C9 a; C7 ~$ V$ k% A! j' {$ ]
Highlights from across Canada:8 R3 |7 X5 l( v% x% f8 W
! G/ U6 U- X6 j- `: l
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
) F: L$ g; d) f/ y c5 @9 H intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
9 j+ G1 Z- m# Q( O* S5 a# y# N home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
* ^8 z, O, w, E4 q6 } only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track! f/ ~) A8 W% x$ w2 R, ?
since about the middle of 2007., L* Y- Z/ g* C$ ^' h$ b
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
) }% i, m* z& J+ q2 P% n frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ J1 u! U0 a2 o) S3 R0 | decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still& }! r8 U2 M0 c6 H8 J
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely& Q) h k4 I, k9 c8 q
poor affordability levels.
; ?4 R% N/ l; [' l) g0 G - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
5 r2 A5 X- `% }4 L- m8 J vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and# Y! B/ B0 _5 Z$ [: f
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
. z7 a3 |6 K4 I p Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to' T& I2 v# c1 f, w j
minimize any downside risks.
7 o/ F& y* j4 d7 i w; k - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market; J6 g1 U2 e: r! O3 {; _+ K
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
( k& g3 s6 B3 Z unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
4 z2 ^( B- t2 ?4 `$ n 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
5 F o7 i: C+ L) i$ D+ Y being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& L U1 s- d3 s" n9 y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& ^6 r" ]! T2 R# u5 P) V Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus, }) O: t8 g J& E2 K9 Z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# r6 s, t* S7 |9 g' Z reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
5 B/ r. K, }0 b ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only+ K! T0 z; v* A8 C: \ n
modestly in recent years.
* m. W* k# g* ?1 y5 g - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ u# |1 R4 ~9 c$ Z9 \0 Z% p# ?: [ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot5 q5 Y2 s( W. K$ U
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward4 E* H- l1 s; c+ Z J
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability; B' v( C) W/ n) w2 Q& M
following two years of deterioration.
$ ?8 a, ]8 t/ T2 U5 N! B/ e% P7 j >> |
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