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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 6 G' F8 W- s% h/ R+ G& a
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 ~6 t* ?. M s( k3 i0 t" Dmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
' c7 k8 _0 |. D* V1 Egains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,2 y1 V( F* {& t
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
+ D6 z" a( l+ V3 X "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
6 [1 ]! i- [; Z+ B1 Usaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 d0 P4 E! S6 Z$ g- o1 Y- ]- m
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) c! o! r! j1 `
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
$ z7 L1 z9 ]7 ]4 Q* J8 j RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
- l* F% n0 ~- q0 M* {worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
0 q, C# M2 E5 d2 S+ y$ p: f4 {which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have5 [3 p: f7 Z0 W8 l0 L9 E0 F
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.8 Y; m. r6 }0 c5 h: m
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the/ Y: O- m5 \9 c9 E
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
" K5 k9 t; P3 P7 a* d7 t9 K dhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
% p8 z' l3 k2 }5 ^9 hAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the0 a! L. ^! `# d
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 H {- V$ M* ^) @5 ~the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
/ z6 G5 x1 w# n) l( N4 t1 P* n7 b According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
* i' G. L7 o" \may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
8 d8 C3 q+ M3 Nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
/ B1 m7 x; G# u- [) \( Chistorically depressed levels.
2 Y; S& I" ]4 {4 F Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost- q7 K2 \9 c0 y; Q1 @- B
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
( y7 u/ x/ X4 @& l/ ~7 h; Tprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
: O& J' h1 A! @hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
* T- o# P! r$ U* U* ienormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the0 m0 j2 ]: G, k, P4 M
months ahead," added Hogue.6 X) `# R/ h2 p- P, O* }- g
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest- g, U* [! {+ g, R& S! b
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary U( E f1 R; Y! `/ I
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ T; v+ e& p4 E$ ` The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
% j4 I; x/ |# U. n5 m2 s$ Ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
$ _4 E9 U& C: U! g; t/ v% scities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only9 b3 V7 T( \ i2 ^
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.- c3 T& U4 Y; Y+ c
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
: y! T4 x) g0 E4 J3 q9 \2 {1 U3 Zbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
! _" U! X, A- V7 z) V7 J7 y6 f3 Qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented2 v. W: n" G- @2 w( F$ l. K- E
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 ~/ t, }# T/ C, K" s5 l
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
/ x R( Z; K7 GFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership2 ?$ b* I6 j* V5 u# m% Z
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
- G0 I6 ~6 {( L \0 X0 Hper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
' B% K0 U6 K" n5 ?, k* M$ V: w" J+ n1 u
' j3 f# s% N' {' q4 P; C3 o <<
* p$ G; X: K* I# b Highlights from across Canada:. _' j6 x* M% E4 E+ s) O
( W; @! n- M& ~ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 n+ g7 ~8 m$ \% D0 j. T9 y intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
! c/ A6 q1 Y5 A k: E2 }1 z home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& ]8 ]( M1 D3 Y f) f2 Q only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track) x, O3 q& k$ Q0 N, }
since about the middle of 2007.+ X, f2 y* {( q9 a9 {3 R9 D+ H( R
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
# x7 W4 a! j) H5 C s: R frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
/ z8 v# B. p' [6 a decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% v6 ~; ]) ~1 F0 Z, g* p largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. B- u2 _- C8 ^5 {, b1 F
poor affordability levels.
" B/ l1 I" V7 K8 d, W' Z8 E$ I \% T - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
9 w/ r6 [% E% n* c vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and" [! H, V7 Z$ J3 B- |
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ @+ j5 g' {7 B( _ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. l& s) Z0 l( L( t8 z4 ]9 b0 M! b minimize any downside risks.6 j" V# `6 N7 q+ S
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
+ P; I- ^7 h9 b( a4 A# H0 {: S" Y6 j8 r conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is& L6 b0 S( v% R1 \
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
7 ?" h M" |4 {8 g 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' @" L1 C5 Z1 [ ^$ c: ^. B being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.5 \- U+ ]5 a3 U: j8 K( m; J3 H9 e
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in! n z/ F* D& J$ |
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 x( q+ h6 _# G5 i
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# n8 R7 O& h I reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
+ ~ \& _" R4 \9 A ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" E0 s, I: t* G& z modestly in recent years.. e3 k6 C& l; S
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
+ ^6 W; n3 G2 d* E$ t" R8 V; ~ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
. h* `) \. U2 E spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" Q/ @# D( U/ i& |( l
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability" y. X! D0 u/ p* D M! c
following two years of deterioration.3 Y5 Z( \+ q2 @4 N
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