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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 8 e W7 z2 P" J' X
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
2 v7 L3 u2 T0 P# n% B/ ^6 omiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive) m) a6 ?9 w6 s5 Y; Q
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
% e% C2 r R. d% D- m2 Naccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.( @) Q2 H- P4 O q
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"6 w6 W. a9 Q4 C f
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% ~" m9 v+ |" A* C s
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability9 J! C( m) j g
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
( y; v5 c; j0 b- Q RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
1 |4 e% q% R: |8 Dworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
+ U" x; G) N! x+ U. S: n) I- {% Cwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
- E& m! ^- A3 T8 C) |# G" l. tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
0 j1 C h5 {; A3 ]) H; {2 L! M& K The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the' x! i! }; j3 R) E: s0 V& A
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a/ f6 a& S: z8 q' W7 y( e1 e
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
7 e# S$ Z) N" N. ^( N6 WAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the* b' `; D4 f4 a9 b# c2 \
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
* Z2 I1 ]/ j3 p( Qthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
# @8 `8 A% h0 I% T6 b2 ] According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: f5 J! e: d/ @8 u5 E j
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in" b6 F! x9 s6 f! ~/ t% L5 @. Y4 w
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
! k* S! Y1 C4 G& phistorically depressed levels.) j1 {3 Z& | d2 M, S" U: y
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
/ C6 Q" n2 L! M& X T+ _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
: d# ~4 Q' ^# e/ Y+ }4 kprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
; e0 P, C4 D+ R4 y) n3 i5 H5 \hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
! f" u* Q& c; `0 B9 g2 i2 nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
+ h$ ^$ M0 j' x$ C/ a7 t3 Umonths ahead," added Hogue.
7 H, |* o0 m& J C: \1 g RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 `7 i) w2 b e
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
" V/ |0 d5 c$ D; e4 u* D3 J42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
, A' U2 p, B( ~) V/ I The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
7 Q5 J- G1 [! r4 o7 _a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
3 k) ^6 F; E' ]1 q( O$ P( F8 ]cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only' Q) x, [6 h* S7 |9 V2 P
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
: i( ?# J. u5 v' o+ G. W3 C% F The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is) b1 |' n4 O$ S; K- N: t
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
: z7 j9 {0 K. Dbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented7 [9 \: ?: f3 Q- i) D8 t1 F
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 t/ ^! ~; q. s T8 }. ^7 h$ }
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.+ p+ N) I6 N- v7 W8 d- X* q
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership% @. C. F1 U7 h) j) }3 `( I
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 503 I2 y! b* N) y
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.3 X9 P$ K9 L9 \4 i+ ?# @
! D: e/ M# B) i' j, j
<<1 }- F# N9 ~5 M; n' W/ Y
Highlights from across Canada:
2 _$ h! I) E- H3 |4 d. K* \. G: u, |$ X# ^ g9 b& _% Z9 s# T1 ] m
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has! R s5 J5 q" f k) X k
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing7 S# @( P, A$ `" j) h9 p
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
5 m+ ^% o7 U3 V+ q only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track" X$ A( c, L& d4 d# z
since about the middle of 2007.
7 l0 {( G! k" H. d7 \; _: c; ]8 ^ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the9 e" I9 j& [2 k9 F, E
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to. X) o6 z5 u2 p' s
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) m+ e2 `2 S/ G+ d3 b/ @ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely3 o# n- ~5 ? i* P
poor affordability levels.
% T" a! o6 M8 U" j' o* l s5 w - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the# }, j* l4 r# i+ k% g
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and+ a/ u' u) g+ y$ z! A4 Z( |
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; x s+ V: N5 B( B Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
6 o/ k: Z$ y8 [- f+ Z/ Y! K% v minimize any downside risks.
- a' S% q9 w+ j8 h; C' v( S* G - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market3 u9 `2 s. i$ x) c; K3 D8 y* `
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
$ o8 U5 {& h; f unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
, ]" \9 _8 Y2 Y/ Y2 [$ S 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 R9 Y" p' `8 ?- `0 B6 y9 Q being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.6 j" f& S6 i6 w" \4 f1 I
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in* i( l' C% C' V. f6 H( |
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus( `, ~' U5 d& D- r5 m* U$ X7 x5 q
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
" o8 i/ G- I7 u$ N reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be A+ n$ p) r. R. c7 k! P
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only. C( y! t1 E T
modestly in recent years.
0 V+ X, k; s: j" n" d% e0 ~ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the7 j) E% |' I' y7 ?
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot9 `; J$ ^& q e) r' P0 X
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward! m# M S, e/ H7 R. b
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
0 W8 [- x* K4 U6 n" d5 [ following two years of deterioration.! n1 j' T: u$ H, m
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