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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( ^" u3 ]9 Z6 \1 _1 R" H# g& B TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& D- ]6 P8 Y9 G1 U0 d$ }8 t0 N% Bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
+ {2 O6 H! ~) ^- Zgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 e. W3 }! }: d: y* w
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.1 o* X4 m+ ~1 U/ L- Z2 w6 l
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& l- n9 u, t, _6 H3 ysaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is3 Y0 l, p- |5 E/ s+ I4 ?
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability$ Q( b9 X; G1 c' V8 T% v# b8 _7 x
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
0 J% K, Q2 H' ~( X9 Q* P RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is* L2 S9 o9 E9 Z% l d: K
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,: Y- h' V4 g1 c9 j$ @
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 C5 z* J2 H& X% s9 [2 esustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
( v' x. F* i2 P3 P, j The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
! [ k+ t, L; Y* d2 m) D4 E6 P+ \proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a t' X! ]9 o8 b- W" [3 ?4 ^ T
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008." P( ]2 v( G6 w: b/ Y
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the* a1 F3 I- n% E! C- S) a# m- z
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 [5 `/ Y ]* O+ w& a
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
# J7 A5 L! L( b( n) u% Z According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: m, _. v2 X( a4 a# S5 v1 Emay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
& @/ P9 ^4 j8 q; Mthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
1 a0 h5 F0 t& q$ \historically depressed levels.
6 n8 T+ C7 v8 b& w4 X Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, R ]4 o8 |. s; V3 c! x2 P
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
% N( e9 G: F. G C% jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
% v# g8 h. f O* \1 P' _- Ahands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This! s7 G, y3 _ ?) o1 V: p
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ o/ I0 Y& M" F, a/ Fmonths ahead," added Hogue.' w. r" {$ ]9 r0 q: g6 p
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 r" n+ Y4 J7 ^) U& B2 G
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary7 f! J3 R, O Q3 t
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent. M/ T1 }+ O6 }% X* a
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for5 J8 h' H; @- m( F
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these0 l0 l$ E$ `4 B% }; e8 B" _' X8 L
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# q! o4 X1 }0 d- u4 y. J- e
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.4 y* D( \# [1 t
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
9 l G# f# {6 G* tbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property; v3 A5 P: q. v
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
6 Z( J# c5 u$ Kincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
8 q+ m5 ^. [ s, p( v" q% f) _condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.) Y7 T5 E: C% ~% ^- d) }3 |
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership3 b% b0 w' u+ }* ^' g
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 o3 z& G( o$ b# v, O4 D+ j
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
" S& n! j% n t. O* |' ~& W5 Y U
" j! N, v" S3 e, g <<
% I5 @3 q4 Z" \& y5 d) x: j1 ?! f' n Highlights from across Canada:4 [% n8 O" G5 D& g
4 N4 P9 F, E! [/ I
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- O" m. E4 S |2 }. x+ ^ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
' P% g1 W; L) ]" J, D+ C* l home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound! z5 X9 G2 b- z" j _! }# y3 M$ U3 u
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track# A# D# l5 X& F5 b) `* ]
since about the middle of 2007.
5 V" [- e9 T' q8 u9 l - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
. j6 A/ U; x/ P- d frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to" k' `& ?3 e, S) N
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still6 A& ]& a5 `. ?5 E
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 N- S; k6 n' v" G
poor affordability levels.
! P) F7 |1 ~ {: Y; Y - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the# Z+ o1 l, y( [3 h, p
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 i( ?" a/ c; z" U; a7 b @3 |- `, ? prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 \& d/ n4 a, o Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
9 S; y0 a9 m, j1 i0 k9 L minimize any downside risks.5 W; @! _' z [+ u; S. R
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
- y- n' F( Q% U- F3 ~, w, E8 @ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is+ f0 L" |5 U7 H. q+ L
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, }8 @3 W2 q4 k- U7 d* D0 c) l
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly/ Y+ T9 h) ^2 ]) I! X
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ [2 m3 n, v! A6 U
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, D9 @4 e+ k' u5 [: E$ g Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus6 I- j2 A- }7 }3 i
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
% a/ W7 E: q; |. S' i reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be; p: Z W: O8 q, j2 k+ Q5 \9 e
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only$ O: M% R( c5 S0 F9 k
modestly in recent years.5 s6 r* s+ E6 w; R' {0 f3 p# p
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( u% M2 @ f* c. y7 \; V, H' \ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
. E* h9 D5 P6 u! } spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward7 K9 U! Y7 E$ |9 |3 @5 U
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
# ~8 X3 C* s n! N following two years of deterioration., A9 `3 L: b0 f* K$ U
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