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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
+ U# q% d& r; f TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 s6 c4 L& d4 K2 H* V+ j6 @ N
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! N9 j( q# }+ z+ D4 P9 B
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 ~6 D/ G; [: D/ g w G2 ?
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
' J5 G$ x9 d! p f "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
( x' x1 ^1 m- @% qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
) e V2 u) J3 o8 {" timproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability, I4 Z; M% K' B# T# `, W$ Y
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 h. W: y& O6 D9 Y6 o
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 a- a) t, z5 l% E& sworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,# M& o% t6 `* R( h7 o4 t6 ?
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have# l* Q, \+ R$ y: f' a: R) W
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* Q0 F# k/ t# \. |5 Q5 K1 y The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the/ k3 V' s* v n' X9 m* C% L) P
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. Z2 i4 @. `7 O! o" fhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ n3 i& r9 J/ ^7 I6 M; t4 I
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the: z }) g" [3 k
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
1 J4 [: H, J' qthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
; S6 X" ^0 L& C; G8 m0 d3 e According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets6 O1 A; v: c2 `% k* A! k; ~( }: c
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in9 N+ m0 _8 _; ~. O/ Q
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at8 f' M5 a; Q. p _
historically depressed levels.) |% d6 c; |; A+ y3 U8 Y! H
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost r, Q- U6 m# y* h
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
- ~ A7 F- j* Z$ `prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
. ?) |+ z7 K2 Dhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) m! @, L8 {& H# t5 U9 A( K+ w6 i- henormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the6 V- y2 V9 X2 }& |# i, \
months ahead," added Hogue.
/ n9 w* I0 z% d8 g2 ~, \ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest+ p) o' g& i: _/ }
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
6 s3 }* O1 r6 O0 g42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- m. p" N( d- b* ]0 Z. E3 C2 g7 @ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for( J& _6 |7 Q C
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 v: y U; f+ y0 X0 s6 y( hcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
9 l* `: ?7 t' t0 |2 mtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.- i. m, P9 u+ H
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
0 O- D; m5 C z+ v4 ], E! jbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property) m' |0 ?* D+ g+ X' L
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented+ `0 }* J) \7 W; |
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
* W: m0 k x/ v% m- Tcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.; R1 Q9 D5 T/ i9 I
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
9 n! B) _' P) O0 X! q O# Zcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50& c0 R$ e8 I. R0 J" s% d$ Y
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
$ V1 M0 c( G2 d/ G' f8 y, I3 o Z9 G
<<
) ] a6 U* a/ R+ |$ Y' b9 | Highlights from across Canada: U/ _( X6 h; d7 A" ^% h5 @/ ]7 P
* u3 U+ @" K3 d8 \! _
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has; ]2 ^6 S+ D# Z q
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
' x0 {1 E: B- n home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound% x+ V0 i# J5 J) P: @( c9 K
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
L" ], u9 t$ o, v3 r6 Y1 g since about the middle of 2007.
( ?* ?+ |$ D/ ?4 Q2 e - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the1 {2 h- H& K1 K
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to5 w: ?) [+ W# x" d
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
9 ^5 S5 a* m: Y. `) u. J largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
% N+ q1 ^3 z' A* s: |! ]" ^ poor affordability levels.
; g+ L2 s3 W% O - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the8 G0 L. T) r- q, O& e4 L
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
( T" a5 H8 W0 x4 g prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ V* Z" R6 S6 X" q6 L0 j! L Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
1 G2 z5 B" X1 | g1 K minimize any downside risks.) t% i" T/ o6 G3 p( m, i
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
. E( z; N! t8 W6 r$ ?" a conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, C9 |8 D6 i j7 e8 ` unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early8 ]' m- h3 ]$ P9 ^
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly3 v1 ?$ ^' N* g7 w% Q
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.. d5 D, T/ ^3 C& }2 l9 @
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
. [2 B6 G* D, ]0 {! G. G Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
& J2 W' `2 z, K' L1 e x/ A far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up1 J( l7 g) r& b
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! |6 |% J. i3 c( B1 m* s ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 D1 A/ p7 f- g* ^+ U9 C8 @
modestly in recent years.
/ n. e' |4 y- ^" T) O1 q - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
6 @7 A4 f. {8 [% X! q general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot$ }2 j6 c4 E5 q) i
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward- E! s3 R" c* r' n, Y/ l7 x3 {
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
D9 S' o5 ]7 T) |7 r# } following two years of deterioration.
4 [* F+ m3 w9 r# N >> |
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