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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC " H. Y0 B, M4 I. a
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the* Z5 v1 y% E/ m( H: @4 ^
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
! d( a/ A) S. ugains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,0 m, I. k8 G3 ~1 F
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics., `# z; ^0 P! `% U( a7 K" B8 v
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"+ G8 h" z( B( T- p/ `2 X$ J
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is7 g3 D1 b3 d, ^
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
, g, X, @2 r0 N1 Y. Bmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" {' W) P$ R& L X R: l+ K
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* W$ e2 [$ U o9 t6 [worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,$ |' Z1 S- @ J
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
7 e) W( R2 A- jsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.( }) u* K6 w. A/ p+ r; k2 s
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the$ c$ Q9 p3 k( W4 T4 M& q
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
5 n) d/ G2 v) K1 o6 ]home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 S& v6 D" V/ o6 y: n3 i. Z' OAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# v0 o( ]# [) Z3 O0 H
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and: t2 S: }4 D# ~) y
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
1 ]2 H$ N" j; h- s: @4 b+ K0 ~4 C According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
' ?9 Z2 }% ^, a! [. |may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
. ^' @- r; s$ Q, C/ e+ [% Sthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
- T* _. _( s# o9 d8 ] Q/ e2 nhistorically depressed levels." o* B) U$ f; \+ A
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost' y) l# F" O% p7 e+ ?) Q3 `
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
6 ^9 h# N& _; P# t) a; r6 Wprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the9 Q) {7 o/ c: p% g3 D, ?
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
$ j9 T! ^( t+ @enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* A4 |) i/ ]# M4 [
months ahead," added Hogue.9 x% \* G8 K' j) M Q# ^
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
8 ^6 @- B% I: Jcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 G! z2 i' a* M- o/ V6 o
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ V- k8 b. v g3 f2 g/ G* n, }- J
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
7 s1 M1 t) N) K. E3 Ba broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these0 [+ O0 P; K# m
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only+ ?3 l y' W9 W h, J
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
' y: e; B. t: V6 v# N& t The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is* i- z* _' y Z- h
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& R! Z% c4 J9 Q7 Y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
- ?. S" Y' ?, d9 A+ P3 R7 n5 [including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 p9 s0 A; q5 i6 icondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 F3 m. {# P- X- R2 y2 s8 a2 x1 m7 FFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
' H( N% Y8 S) b- z. `costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
8 Y5 D8 }& i& L( K- E2 J! wper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.- b+ b! n/ T: j/ ]. M
. n5 A9 C( V0 U0 G4 _1 u* U/ K( ~
<<0 ?! N& Q% x9 ^+ T' K* W
Highlights from across Canada:
( O# ?& q5 j/ F: Y$ @" h' B# m; V" O* {# m( h6 V
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has9 V4 \& m: F! L9 u) c4 [
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing* k; u4 f! ~9 O
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
. i3 Q ]0 Z3 v only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
; l" S0 Y, K5 f since about the middle of 2007.
. H1 O4 {! c; i, \' C- u - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
; e7 C2 k! Y' o/ `) F frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
X2 d" v& `( ~ Q, q% i& ?* o. C decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still! O* v- P$ i1 W$ a) u$ {; }
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
& O) k/ @7 S( }, J4 }! T$ a" _: t poor affordability levels.
4 D# O+ k8 h2 n - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
+ d7 s5 Y% Q0 ]+ j) c vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and X' a( C- w: ?7 S% {4 l
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.$ E: f/ F. B9 v+ P. z4 o: a
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
; N& j2 m& _& _; d% H' u/ O minimize any downside risks.
3 Z: j. _. i0 `0 F) S - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
* @0 U. M; Q. F0 ` conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
+ j2 v, d" L8 f+ k' z unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( z0 d- t; u9 H7 ?# f& M' v
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly4 i" o& A* m" S9 y: M j- ?/ K' p
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.2 Y! y: M. Z3 a% c# y; A
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in+ P V4 n" c4 n7 U
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
( p- a. @, u7 | far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up9 \0 E7 g6 p# y% z% \4 h1 w
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 n) Q1 K5 a0 M. [% d: f1 ^' G/ R
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
^. |( l% r `9 ]6 t7 X$ M modestly in recent years.
3 e* S7 A4 c8 R w/ Z - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' p0 T9 L( y/ s7 r
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
5 F! F. h% a# j0 V" T" S$ l spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
S; G" i' ~. |1 c& i( K; H& ? price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
/ ~+ R/ Z5 q9 M2 B0 P, Y( p following two years of deterioration.
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