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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC + V0 c, S5 Y+ H, \3 }3 [
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
1 _, ^8 m* c1 X+ ?. Q0 Xmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive9 P# W, q }7 U6 p# [/ s% [+ A
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,4 S; t; V+ L9 L" r* p7 f
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 I9 v8 t$ h+ f7 D2 D "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"* d/ i9 y% D; ~% v9 o
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 l- g* S) V; Q# t3 U0 X
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability8 Y4 S. ~' O' ]$ `- ?
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
* R6 s9 z) S' @5 ~8 C RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is" A2 N& y: |1 m" L
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
+ _7 U1 h, q( d' Iwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
* r& ~% K5 w# h/ D- n+ tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
1 K1 x- H! H0 l3 a6 {0 Z+ h- C The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the2 a8 y7 j; T/ R& U' c7 W M
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
) f) ?9 h, E6 d) }home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.8 q8 v! q9 x4 U+ B- Z+ p, v4 [8 r
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the/ F6 Z5 s2 L0 F: E! p
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and- p3 T$ s7 i; U D; W+ ?
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
& ^3 V2 ^. r! c( G* B! ] According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets L5 [! g1 J, X
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
4 T6 |6 i4 G: v1 Z5 [, }0 Uthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
( e4 Q. M& C9 Zhistorically depressed levels.9 `8 T8 i. i6 o! W9 \
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
1 l& `# ^4 A( ]" o; aof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House! Q* o- D( p1 e3 u6 m
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 q% b8 J6 ]! ]& ?6 `& V: o
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
1 Y$ l. F& d7 n' n* Tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
( O) _8 w2 R) J3 ~8 j' }: J' rmonths ahead," added Hogue.
0 i- e# M7 n( L5 [. y0 n+ R( S RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
/ D4 y! X% B) n5 D: {cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
& b! | i0 ]" @1 @% i42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. X' y$ ~0 I* m
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
( r$ n, o% v5 _' }( \. b1 }a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these2 v6 I& q1 I* U# X2 }
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
- M3 m' S8 d+ E5 y: C0 O5 m9 B# j4 Ttakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
1 g+ @& U/ I7 D" |- G The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
. o! Q3 J8 B2 {( {1 gbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
3 T" \* J/ L9 Y! B+ M% d# m+ Ibenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented% O6 o0 y8 G9 j
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
$ L4 L+ C% o( r# u( a0 |condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 T3 }: o: b, n
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
. J. \* R6 p: K( k: K- y# S, |costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
$ y# d; l6 B) R4 n9 \" H2 Fper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
- H4 w) v: \; J+ E1 m
9 W1 |7 ~; E' C" }' T8 m* _ <<
: p* c6 F7 S' [9 g% _0 a! X Highlights from across Canada:/ K0 q) v- e3 @4 W
% f, L( g# s5 { - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
/ P2 B: t# z. Z" Z& N intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; [) a! ~4 {+ ` home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
1 S! J9 C: v4 V( m5 Q6 C# r only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track {- ]- ]3 p( e
since about the middle of 2007.$ o, w3 G! o5 k) F' F+ M
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the' y& y1 M" _) m/ z1 P+ l) h+ @
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to: ~- S$ {) M# g
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still6 \5 o. S7 Y4 A {' p% H7 E, i
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely6 V* l8 b2 T/ }8 M( `; n
poor affordability levels.6 r0 O. _2 }, Q& L" z
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
, s. @& N! c3 j/ M# K: h. @! W5 ] vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
' y0 h _) e$ ~1 z; P& k& w prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' `2 ?5 H3 k1 b/ {9 ~- r Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! y+ A# w' g3 q: X. M) a minimize any downside risks.: V3 {$ \* P+ @
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
+ ?; x+ J$ B/ W conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
# ~# s1 n- ?9 B7 F unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
( l9 L! r5 N# j 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly# _& @ W7 C4 d: D8 A+ d
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
4 O6 r# X0 y5 X" B. m - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in2 [6 y9 }) c& Z
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 f; A( X9 |, p) P0 s2 {
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
2 F% E, `" f4 c8 \. j3 l' N* ? reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 X0 T% |0 E2 J$ O: i+ G
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, m8 v" R. H& |$ P. ~9 v% N# Q$ y modestly in recent years.+ x6 x7 h! q; D
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the; D6 R/ ]$ x5 b( l( b Y
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ j! P4 W+ D2 A N5 M) _8 o spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
7 |. ^, N# m9 u1 Q3 U6 U. t' b price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
" f+ m- O- o7 y* | o. | following two years of deterioration.# `, ^2 g; {9 G+ C/ H
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