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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
2 O! ^; W8 B0 k# F0 M TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
7 M0 {# F) v$ Z9 `& A% f3 Bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive5 x$ t$ U, Z3 B
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,! o k( X# I( `; \2 G2 }
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." g/ U, l2 h& i3 F) o q, U s
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"; ^" f+ @+ }. G% W3 _
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
! \% t w5 B$ O3 T+ kimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
1 [# ^# k9 F( ^* _measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."4 M* q8 g% |# d7 f$ }- C1 p3 A- _
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. k; e0 w& R3 O( b- y
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
/ C/ Q( S! j3 `which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have; _: U+ S1 e/ e) Q$ z7 e3 Y
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; v4 W7 p T- k( R The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
& X o# T4 F- m+ Uproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& E1 U' x; b6 A6 I1 d: A
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
, i+ L% ]) c- g, k( B* Z) n/ IAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the/ \0 H* u. J) b/ C# R
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) Q5 ]3 |- J2 s% e) F+ T! [2 M" p1 g/ lthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* b; _3 c3 J* c According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
" C! j! ]+ ^0 d! n G% Ymay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
- A' r- {/ s# b. Q0 rthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
$ J& T0 ^/ v9 @4 ~historically depressed levels.4 G0 n' ~* D* N/ F( y" m* t
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
- \/ s8 z+ m. b. zof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House; c( {; N+ u1 X/ P1 u- x
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the( i( ~3 x+ G# c, P$ p
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
3 e+ W" x) ]0 _2 v2 genormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
0 i# X5 i7 x" Pmonths ahead," added Hogue.% G' f1 X3 @& z1 |3 x( [8 C' I. Y
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest# L8 p$ q) ~' N
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary4 C0 c' ^+ @5 _! ?
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.' _5 d% |) j( E& H4 R8 M' z8 b
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for5 o# n! K4 d2 [& s0 j9 o
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
" D: a. }. F V' u. S7 B, H: Hcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
! D3 a5 L. o' I/ r2 J0 t2 ctakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
( M; Z) N3 N, `; ~9 a, w* }" i The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is( z6 s" |# f$ U
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
4 C1 u) c7 B9 L3 l5 D; @, o" }benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented0 q5 j' V9 h) o. G8 f
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard* C! L- ~; y6 B' _
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
4 J( Z; d( j- Q1 J! z% }- yFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership/ O: L4 { k7 K) E( d8 l- s% S
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
8 N- V3 k7 X) q! b) m9 pper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income., f0 |, @) c& l! Z
/ J" }( u' y) B3 W& [7 h+ L <<
" }0 e* \9 }- K6 w, A7 v" [ Highlights from across Canada:( V) T/ D9 q% f" G, x
% H0 R- X2 V" p" T' S# z( \ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has Q2 V( G+ k0 ?4 W2 @ |7 Z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing/ J- w4 Y8 V/ B) }8 i' c0 |
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
8 k( ]- ~9 e# u3 B$ } only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track$ D) q( a) r1 M& o
since about the middle of 2007.9 f' h7 J7 D* w, u3 Y1 T4 \5 |, s* G) [
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
# r L3 A, C: ]6 O" ] frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& ?/ D6 o* V0 P decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* d6 l$ Z( Y: f4 U8 n2 W" @% H
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
# ~) A; W8 k! p4 o poor affordability levels.1 |7 `. b g1 N' ?) B( w. `( j
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the9 r9 G0 g! M6 _' u. J! @
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
/ @# y' N' O+ ~ _& x" o3 ^ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ a9 a* d5 O' H2 F" u8 \$ ^ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to9 f7 W+ T. ~! W/ f c, Z
minimize any downside risks.8 q" ]# }. D1 G* w5 [) s0 C( i
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
% Y+ v _) P. A* a+ ^ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
; O% q/ p9 K9 D unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early- I# ?: m* d0 S$ X7 w V
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
, H. Z4 G6 [# t being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
; I0 ]9 R/ x; g8 Q- o1 y1 \ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
: P" T- F2 }1 M" A" M Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ c2 q9 ~7 B+ b far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up4 M6 d8 `4 t- E1 ^+ P q
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
6 Z$ Q& J; x8 R, f ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only! R/ g9 k; n+ a# z9 j/ ]
modestly in recent years.* \2 y' o0 r* M" T5 E/ }
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
- V7 w1 l) n! v r: X [ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# q4 V7 x' Q. V( b$ p& m8 t spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
$ P( s8 x: ?9 h$ ?$ P/ t price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability) E5 N: i# R. S* M2 J
following two years of deterioration.. C8 l D4 d! g2 D3 @+ J h' k) ^0 @6 C
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