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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 U9 a8 _' ~( F' h7 O) g4 x% z
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 x: _8 B+ L6 V6 X
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive+ V a% ~* j% ?) S
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,# ^$ E% r' Y4 _7 A
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, _( b3 u' y( |6 t% ^7 w "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( \: u. o g7 [8 X9 y, U. e
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is8 F% A6 {5 Z; ~2 y5 e
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability! I3 N$ B/ a! Y0 |
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
1 @) v6 J& \5 A. P RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is _& j4 c7 u, b9 r4 q( W
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,* A% P2 E1 n6 |& {4 h; }& A
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
. w# h" t+ Y1 }1 u0 ssustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; k) c# c! D" l1 g/ \ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
D# C6 e/ ]9 l' j0 eproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& t i; C T1 C; L. d3 S
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.! u2 L- G0 }% ]
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the) g+ M7 l9 e |' j9 l5 m
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
4 X4 j& t. U3 Mthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent." e, @% o7 W* K) h4 _7 n$ r
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
; @& W+ P! Z8 H" J3 m6 S3 S/ h% J+ l5 Tmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
1 X- @; m1 Q3 sthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
# m& x# v' p& r% S& i! Mhistorically depressed levels.
- L; Q4 g& \& [1 B Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost! V; C j' c$ L6 f- ?9 P' _$ v; g
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House# R, Z5 L4 D# l3 g( O- \
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 W3 q2 s2 o# z( A. s
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 S* w) q# d. Z. penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
7 d% o" J$ y( H4 K9 x+ ]1 tmonths ahead," added Hogue.
5 o* {8 @7 s! ? RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
: R* K- l; z1 ~6 t1 ocities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary t# S$ l# W X. D+ d+ @
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
$ F! c1 c, B, R The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for, v4 r: n- U6 p, V
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
$ i! @0 {/ {+ k+ h; i0 ]cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only/ P" k& h1 ~0 m" f9 l
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
* U9 F: |3 [! ]# N* f$ V6 b( \ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 f# v t: P: w/ v
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
% }! a0 n. X1 s7 ]9 L+ O+ Tbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
$ M! U" \2 z6 M4 G: Oincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
- C9 J, r2 C4 z0 a- jcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.3 [2 `2 D6 k' E' K7 y
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
" x! g$ ^1 O3 f8 V. fcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
$ K0 W4 N5 c9 r! f: Y. D$ iper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.5 x3 {% ~4 J% Z+ @- x' f
' f6 a0 ?) O6 O( P0 m: V; J7 R8 `0 U
<<
* B% V2 u' @6 j2 U9 E) X# F+ s4 W) i Highlights from across Canada:
: z L# h4 m$ k% z5 T& x) p/ E, E6 S1 `7 t% p0 A$ C
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has/ P' S4 {1 b( @" x0 Z& X+ X
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
( y: `; h& r2 p. N1 @ F1 V home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound+ Y% j+ @ Y9 F/ v t: r
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track2 c7 j8 \3 y' M
since about the middle of 2007.9 V- z/ W4 r$ M
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
/ P" C4 f' X$ ^( `( w+ n4 M8 }4 } frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 Q+ Q3 L7 A: H( {. n
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still: N6 t `% ]* R& {; p1 F
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( n4 H% |! x# c6 L, t# o poor affordability levels.
5 {) ^* b+ r% B - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the9 m/ l) l6 {0 P. j4 F
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ `$ _: o9 v2 s7 e: M9 y$ _9 x prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; N, n+ |+ _3 h3 _/ c2 |; c& a Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to2 A/ ^# S& g1 g Q& \1 @; `# L
minimize any downside risks.+ n s& S; ~# y! `
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market* d! [+ r: V/ u! ?7 G" [9 H0 @
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
% B& l" L3 x- b) I unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, Q# N/ ^2 l/ \% P6 \. Y
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly, e: X' v5 E/ k& J( y. y
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.' r) A) \) O4 O8 U" U2 |2 t b0 R
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
. l; r( I4 @% Q& N2 p3 X* D Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus$ }- W$ {" l0 I
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up3 s2 _ Y. L: l8 W: j8 h# f: M9 s
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be) P! A+ w+ \9 ]' Q' l
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
! S7 v" x. Y" H& i9 }1 _ modestly in recent years.* Y) {, H- u) B4 D2 F, e( l8 {
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the& A' a; N# [& B/ v9 }( H3 ^
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
& Z: F' A" ?6 b5 C7 ^) U: _ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
0 ?0 l* B l2 [" H: ` price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
' W2 R) e, h2 X L/ S following two years of deterioration.
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发表于 2009-4-15 19:05
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