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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC . T5 R0 i. M1 P& i& S1 h4 f
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the, F- D' Z2 ], y
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive% W- U1 K/ R9 c
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,8 {% m. v z. c+ b! W7 z
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
$ `" c3 `; C0 j "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& ~( G: O& p* M0 z' ysaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is+ I+ x1 ]9 _8 Y. H
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability/ L4 d& f: `- C, V
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; f6 l: u: t% S! W6 m5 w- k RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is& {" G8 i" ]0 u+ E+ e3 i
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,4 e& T6 S/ o5 ?$ i8 t+ d8 {
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have/ y6 C6 T4 F% [! A9 I$ J
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.# R9 @2 }% Z& z) t8 ~ L
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the: j, I( x# i; G( r4 d6 |2 {
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a1 b* y m% T) p
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.6 h6 G$ _+ \. H1 V) G$ x- m
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the! b; `- }2 A) w! c) t) Y4 P
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
' g* m% r" L: B( B, @the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
+ B5 Y5 [1 M$ s9 G7 c. s. w% Y* H According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
+ S" i9 T4 v: G: Emay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
+ _0 j7 x5 j0 j7 z9 D' _0 u" B+ Tthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at5 Y# Y B- Z# B% w. a7 A: p
historically depressed levels.
9 n* }* v6 c7 t Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost2 V8 N7 w/ J" _, }+ }
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
3 R% m' i: U. X6 c4 R; l$ {' `prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
4 D O8 r8 h" k+ l" q8 P! Ohands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This7 x& u* H' D# e, h. e2 c- H
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
' P, O( l- k. e8 dmonths ahead," added Hogue.7 j' K! _. H Y8 J
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
$ Q" w4 s v8 t+ Ccities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary; M+ A" f5 q3 G4 `4 ~
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
0 W3 A4 ~$ }1 Q- ~) j( I# e The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
* j W# O8 d4 d2 F5 ea broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 y$ `# ^6 ]' n! Fcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only. }- j4 b) a! ?% n" f
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
2 A. h2 N8 M9 R# m6 Z" q6 }: p The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
1 ]- F4 L* k7 Cbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property" H3 }/ j- F5 `
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented, R/ b: s) S) O" }0 V6 p$ d
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
" z2 P$ \% A5 x( l! B% e9 Ncondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
3 M9 O6 y+ ~/ S% o+ L5 VFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: _( t0 O0 H$ [0 I5 j
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50; K/ ^$ ~" m" j6 T: P
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
; B; k2 C3 P9 l; F4 j& C3 {) [; r) h9 [" u) c+ s9 m) J$ Z
<</ D+ H) e2 |% r2 D- \% X
Highlights from across Canada:
6 a% R) b. R- O2 v9 U; D/ {7 q: D
+ C ~4 C a; D4 C4 l1 y+ z3 f - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has7 s' b* g/ _! k! A! } {8 I4 B
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing9 `$ i' }2 W( G+ W. W/ o2 e3 N: T
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
) s4 s q. v& ` only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track! R8 F2 I+ e- |0 @: c. w, n1 w
since about the middle of 2007.
0 {3 r# m( L F7 c5 ~8 ~ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the B" S) l" G* X# V5 n2 a; d
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
( p- C$ T4 G( O2 k' C4 A- e decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
" Y6 o" M8 _! V6 x- r3 K largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely: T$ C4 k' a M \7 n r! y, u: o) L
poor affordability levels.
2 \! Y* J' O( H1 \1 f6 K - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" ?. x% w6 f8 s( q+ L* u
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ b, Y4 z9 c" W+ O0 W$ ]5 J
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 n9 U5 g# G" V5 j) D$ B9 w
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
8 Q* l: ?. U1 l* m7 p) p, w d minimize any downside risks.& Z' a+ |/ K- G( f/ z; z8 B
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market2 g7 w( I! g& m* |/ j# H9 @
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is% m" _$ s- r/ z/ A& R
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
D$ T/ |- C9 {$ {3 t 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 F8 {7 i- z9 q/ ? |
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
3 d5 J5 Q% \: E: \2 ^9 [ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in! C. D. @& O3 {9 h/ z7 y
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus" Q! q; J5 L# I5 G
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up: N- B* F3 _. m# [
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* Q' W8 ]# F F, p' a$ D4 G1 A ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
- |+ E4 l5 c, E7 k- w2 I modestly in recent years.
+ M5 b# q0 ]. r* E, f% P - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
1 ]" g A2 @- N [ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot- \# L4 J' \, w0 c9 d1 i& f
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
4 v+ H: q4 L3 I7 G3 `- _ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability; c5 _# `/ n0 P4 v$ h8 e$ I p: i9 S
following two years of deterioration.
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