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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
, x4 t1 b5 A2 w2 X% l' B4 k9 V+ b9 x9 P- v TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
' n7 x8 ~% D- O5 t; i( Q' mmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. ~, r# t# r" I0 D
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,$ e. R' s M$ p
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) c8 x! `9 t: z! z3 u
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,": ~: M# T) ?8 {+ u/ {
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
6 }; | k9 o) y* e* }0 r# rimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" P0 u9 W! I. G9 x+ hmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."2 Y2 Z& K$ y* k, }- n
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is p, ]; H* T) d) e J
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
# P! H; G" ?5 bwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 U$ Z) M4 h9 Z( h+ ]( X. P. J
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.0 T# c0 C+ l2 S1 X! A& t5 _
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
) q* G0 P# H$ C- [/ Eproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a( b6 l3 @, a! L; S8 J; G
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.- p) i7 H" ]8 K- z3 R! F
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 k+ ~8 F6 m( _& z: Q$ ]standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
$ c6 Q! A' ^9 X) x! D* t9 ^# E9 nthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
- M5 z1 S# f# \9 o$ S According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets/ {+ I) z. A( [9 H7 h
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 A' G( j& ^7 h4 j3 V2 z
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at' G3 W! s- n( Q+ E8 \
historically depressed levels.8 U9 P) r3 N% u) \7 r T
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ y+ [9 ^2 N* n4 Rof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
/ _: j) b! ~1 {3 p6 j% Tprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the: S5 B: P5 J. T* X7 G9 `
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
, A2 M C: g% u$ V5 m2 j+ j0 Yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the& l3 I1 f9 a" U/ e+ L9 j* {
months ahead," added Hogue.# f+ K8 |9 K+ K+ j4 Z1 M
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 y) r, U C Z9 {2 q) Dcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
' P3 u$ I$ V3 S# S42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ b4 |+ C( i. O; A
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for# f/ m x& n! a$ H1 |, l( D; h# b
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these3 H! `( j) ^ X2 B! o
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 I: |' j2 @; q* V# K3 ~8 Ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.+ l' G" f5 C7 p& a X6 Y3 }5 T) T
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
% L3 Q$ @3 |, q9 A3 ebased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property) _ ~2 L) a$ J3 t$ w1 V" ^$ F1 G- ]+ c
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
$ n$ S: W( e7 G/ \ H! Eincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 I' Z+ `/ k1 g H( Gcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* @% ^6 ?4 U' L: | wFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
F; j0 P& N M) ], t/ _8 _) L5 rcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
4 K" m; i9 X% Cper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 b6 t$ c1 D1 @+ C6 M V' Y0 M0 I% f/ e. q/ f
<<: M- O$ C1 c1 `
Highlights from across Canada:
- e! L( Y+ R( T3 k! S+ m
( G: ^, W- J7 |% c. ]( Y! Y# Y - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has {- r0 J* T3 G; r. R c3 R# N; x
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
& i7 s6 F8 f9 w home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
2 K- ~4 Y' g/ T4 g0 F only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track& W& [( E- S' L0 Z
since about the middle of 2007.. o8 M U! K' E4 K$ M, N2 ?3 H. D% }
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the; l' F9 N6 I, k: u* d
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to$ K* `1 {* o6 E
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* L a0 F6 m( z+ @- l: b
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely- Y. I' N; c& ` R8 W
poor affordability levels.2 b' G/ A& s) f
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
7 Z% H! i7 l8 e/ ^) p) |. o5 y vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 ~2 Z. i( R( r9 {! t! B
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.( g' R, X$ I7 x2 N$ a% O
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 N h' T6 K7 R9 h" e7 P$ {
minimize any downside risks.- o9 k! ~' g; E3 @
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
. e _' q% D2 L4 b6 w7 E8 _ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
9 `, a( l, ^& m5 F unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' Z' o j3 l( i$ b+ E 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly+ u: t; v- O* ~. s4 H0 y B
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
Q w8 v& f( ~! ]6 B' x" m% F - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
* x( Z2 W; U d$ e4 {( \$ M! r Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
2 s' `* B1 G& i& h% t; M, p" g4 Q far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
5 I7 m: @, a5 s9 [/ A6 y! b& w) G8 W reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" W7 y9 @' u6 W( I1 m. H) b! R ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only7 G0 {4 E4 g. M" ^1 h2 \* x( L4 x
modestly in recent years.! E9 [/ ?. _! u9 O8 c% R
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) a/ [ R* y' f# {' O
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ ?+ S# T6 l' e) ]4 Q. x* z spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
+ M3 G6 m- ~9 N( ]) s price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
/ }) a. L1 R8 \# G i" C) G following two years of deterioration.
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