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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 6 v7 v7 ^* z; }- n* F
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the& H3 B/ S7 i4 f7 V2 v6 h: [% Y
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive8 J3 Z, Q6 j6 h
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
. \3 f1 y, L# { N3 Daccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
- ?% K( I* }' Y% a v, K. u6 W' x "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure," N5 F( i! [. @! n
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is4 S: U& g" T4 g0 J
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability% h6 `! U( H) u* f
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."% c: G' G7 _1 o2 ]' E
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
# i! E1 T: C/ c& p! c/ _( ?$ z& iworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
# d: A4 `! o- s4 t0 W3 ^$ i. pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
4 [# l& u" [6 k1 Dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.9 d/ Y8 \* m& M* w( c5 v, r
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 J& s2 W4 @* |2 E5 N7 x0 Bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a9 t* _) M# h6 \: D. o4 p9 r
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
6 Z8 j9 n& _5 w4 c0 ^Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
7 |( O; v9 d- y: z+ E# p; Ustandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
- n% ` ~ m4 |: I7 a& Vthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
/ O) J% T! Y9 l6 }' R According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) j9 r0 B- a }
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in' h* {* ]9 ^ T' f$ O
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
- G( c4 ]! P/ w6 J* W+ D+ o& khistorically depressed levels.
- C! l& `6 F% a Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost9 D) l5 g: S/ A" {$ m2 e1 L
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
' s; c3 B$ v5 ^8 @prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 n! H6 n7 e) i( ]' s( _' Z
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
K* E. I3 }8 Fenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the/ O8 g" q% h- F6 N# L9 E2 g
months ahead," added Hogue.
3 T5 j, q) o2 Q( L RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest$ ~3 Y" x& u" v
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 D, O2 c P' s4 x) g0 O+ q42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
8 F% K# s! Y+ ?7 E% h- `! s" o The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for1 o- R p3 e2 @: o( E
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these2 e$ t d$ t$ H- a# \
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only. x9 V+ F) A9 h& k
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: e: E) z1 i- K! x
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 c2 Z; B, ~' m# T: r3 `9 V; a: K
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property: ^. P: s; |/ @0 z, B* ]
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented2 q! l+ D, H* O3 j1 q% I
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard* T/ r F0 T+ T4 X3 h; D( S
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
- [' f+ c/ N- R9 \1 YFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
% S: B5 c; \: P# fcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
3 v$ J. H" V+ _# ?2 Z$ eper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income./ X% Y g6 K4 k! K6 y4 s' @
* O/ V. k. T, g6 h
<<5 j) z# d. e5 W) p
Highlights from across Canada:7 m' c/ H% E6 I$ S
( ?, f" D' l6 d9 D) c ]- i
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
* t$ D x% ]! f* L2 | intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing2 q1 {- o% s4 i, z
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
6 Y$ d0 d( K; |; t/ E! Y0 C only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track* I+ n: I6 B7 g$ D. s
since about the middle of 2007.
: u( J$ Y5 `# d9 p - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
) O9 N& j: r- C9 `$ f1 E+ F frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ U! O) X& a1 ] decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still G" Z& F2 l! ] y
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely9 y. }6 A- m: N2 U8 {% U m
poor affordability levels./ z) w6 r) G0 B
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
) [' r' a0 ?# C) N vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ G" B9 ~! f! o$ ?; y prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.* D1 e% {( a. |0 g6 J, e2 ~, z% H
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
# ? ^# V1 n: {) p& v minimize any downside risks.+ C, ^" C# ?0 v8 [, Y
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. ^* W4 L& Q+ D0 M
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
% ^ t, A2 o1 A! j9 R1 a: w unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early4 `/ `) z8 w* x0 U4 s3 E
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
" D1 o5 o ]0 |, \* x$ V. L being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
+ G. `+ t& p2 v9 O$ o0 ~ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
; u" j9 T+ O$ t+ }0 @8 h; E% F( l Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 t- J1 T, b3 G! X$ {' D- Y9 V far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* k I7 M: t9 Z. V5 N( J
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be- _" U; g2 j- Q( x9 R
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only4 {* J1 Y( F" f! `& w
modestly in recent years.* x$ K1 W' _0 O j) {/ r
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 {, o% n' K& B* w5 u
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
3 T( f9 k+ r# r8 j$ r" F. @ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ I* b7 j$ o0 h( ?) W" E) \
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
# V9 |' ~& G% ^# x p ~ following two years of deterioration.6 c, o- n" ]( {' M' Y$ j; a
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