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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # X7 s' }% N# ^! Z4 M+ k" K% f
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the6 H4 v' B J& ~9 w& |2 S* e
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
5 U/ p* Y4 [2 igains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
) r+ x( x7 ?3 g9 l2 ]& H0 `. b( C- Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
" m) k9 m% [. ~- u8 s( w3 k "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& o- W, H0 `1 t/ vsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
2 I4 y. m! ~9 d' ], v m& \$ I( zimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability& v9 }, f+ A1 L/ e( A$ [
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 x8 v2 e6 u* ^' X* q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 s) \7 _' L9 ~( q3 ]0 Nworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! E. x) `! O3 [/ p' ~" \1 j lwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 |0 |9 G! J0 c* X- K& O
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 C" [$ w) @2 _! ^7 H% I7 ^ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the$ \) K2 ^; A. g3 y2 x3 R
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a* q' W1 @% s; i7 E, [) u
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.* W& r+ ]. y0 H8 T6 m0 e8 \
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the) I% B6 @' |, t. v
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and2 w6 c+ m. W: b% z7 s
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.9 [, N( L2 M X1 H: c% [* B8 O
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets& l4 ]7 S0 ]/ ?; l* @
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 {! @9 d; h; F. }
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) a" A. c* E/ [historically depressed levels.
; {: r5 Y+ b, W7 ^ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
" K4 V8 D5 G, d* d0 Fof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House. ?+ X1 E8 |- R* c' S: V; W
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
5 i2 ?" `" B7 z; [hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This' r0 @7 P/ b% Y( I
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
4 W0 W3 l$ ?: Y( P( Ymonths ahead," added Hogue./ }6 p6 w8 O- W! k( s: q
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
5 F6 w# P: J2 scities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
0 c8 w) z# I+ }5 A1 s1 t42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
1 l/ r/ d F, b+ [ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
8 Q' L4 S" U, \& c6 \# ha broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' r& D0 @% l# e+ |5 x, c7 i
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 R. y- U9 f4 qtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
+ L# z0 p: h6 n/ U The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is+ j+ R' O+ `! Y! y6 S
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ Y8 R0 s. q/ u& Y6 I
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented p1 j# t! v+ M
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
( @2 {0 [9 k; ?; {3 Qcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.8 @# ~' h/ d/ o7 l1 u7 w5 d
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership3 U/ y9 g+ j9 w( `/ e) M! C
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
5 D6 D0 S2 S( {per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
! F, Y l, Z; m9 ^% c
6 ~; \$ g3 Q6 c0 D5 q( k4 X <<3 P6 @ _1 p- o. _
Highlights from across Canada:
9 |6 D0 \9 N0 y' g/ L, F# e+ J" q& w
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
# C2 N2 c( C% N( X: Q intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
5 L; J: G/ e$ j. ? K; Z, }5 R- _+ A4 [ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
5 w1 t& F. R; `3 s only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: p6 N7 [% v! q: a since about the middle of 2007.
/ @7 R" N) r7 k5 T0 M - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
6 g& H' X( a' U* ~. s frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 x8 H( ~$ d- N7 L) F6 o# X4 O
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still8 i! I% u# _ r! F
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely" d8 p9 f' B+ z& L- r. V E1 B0 [
poor affordability levels.# r4 K' Q" L8 M7 [- Q
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the- s/ T% D4 ?6 L' G" l' q
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 u* l; R4 T; n4 X' k% j
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 B- t) }4 x) h4 O Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to2 n# B- u; e9 h6 w9 K
minimize any downside risks.& S4 p$ h$ |) }
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
: h9 M' Q% \. V3 o8 g- } conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
+ l( J. k, T( u6 W- x. H unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
4 w& V0 W3 y4 A 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
" b8 T" T. |5 {3 A; u8 W- `$ f being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) T: ?7 V. s( M9 f* z7 i' H - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in- ~8 W) G% a7 [, l! }" W& O
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus& j+ b# {9 e, m7 _, ?
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
0 {) A9 J0 [' ]0 G( `1 T reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be H+ U" a% c/ s( |- N
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only0 N7 r/ b" H+ e+ d* }# g0 Q
modestly in recent years./ N- @ M6 }' H& M
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
9 s+ @4 j! p, i- s" F general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot" V7 N' R X4 b4 p% A0 o& y' D4 H
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward/ y' t9 j; G% H' V2 Q, d
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
4 b& o5 U( K7 Z: }7 X following two years of deterioration.4 X0 |' ]: `, {5 p5 q
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