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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC * Q7 q8 z- s) `: ^4 W7 E: b7 P# {
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
9 ?4 O! R, S L1 m3 Jmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
0 U' _; P- F4 v$ |gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,0 a2 m/ R# V- i1 \# V( N4 R u
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.; M# J. T8 I) S0 c4 {& J
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 B9 E. U5 ?1 S" c( S
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% H1 _- z# _* V
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
0 }! s' O* j mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 v( F% M1 f3 k& u8 w3 T) E
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 t4 f9 i# q& v" G7 F
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,% E; C8 g, g$ q) }6 ?# f, X
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 [9 w( ^0 W q; o
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
' m; [2 z: |9 [, U9 j The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& n+ n1 o' M+ e
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a. w5 i, L; j) s/ f) i
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
7 x3 [1 f- Q# `. OAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
$ k- c4 J* X) A" {& ystandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and% }3 J) ~' f& a' e5 p
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.+ b" _4 L) Y- q" f6 w
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
d; b+ H2 O5 k ]5 X; `3 A8 N6 }' |may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
9 g/ E$ r, w: X" o, f T, ?the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) w% H N O4 K* T, Q* Q; Ehistorically depressed levels.5 c& \3 G) V7 Y) q
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ j( J' c3 [* G' Z+ U- ^$ Xof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
& |9 Z' f. t; D+ g$ oprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the' b; M4 ?/ N/ _6 Z1 f6 }" |8 a
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
9 H" \: s/ ~+ k' Q1 p7 \; I$ p% Henormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the, X1 z2 {; M' C8 C3 ^; L
months ahead," added Hogue.
3 T9 T; ^1 Q6 ]5 o RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest; J* s6 C; `4 @% X* n$ E5 _
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
1 V* h' k+ S. o8 b( ]" l42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.1 n) L0 D0 m5 n& {+ @4 }
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
% Z. |& X' I6 O: |8 `a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 ]( Z0 t% J; y4 O1 \cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
5 @0 l9 G. i/ |2 L$ T$ U& dtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.( m, Q: V. L# x6 Z6 b9 A7 ~
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is( ?# p5 d" a( W+ w9 s
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
+ k& k$ |1 g% k0 N, y4 u9 U% qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented7 U+ ?" _' N- p4 M6 ]0 X
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard$ h' p1 _$ W6 ?4 C
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.9 I' x% \; @) J& h( T9 v
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership$ a6 E+ b, E j( d- C
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
8 k0 e" D* s. L- \, w5 tper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 @! H7 c$ q _) F( V
$ H' r5 {$ \% |/ F" g% F1 N
<<
9 j& o8 g/ g+ l0 L5 }- x Highlights from across Canada:
) @5 j. f: F+ `" X4 O8 w4 f$ [
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has4 Q$ d8 z, N4 M
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
3 u3 _' h$ p4 c1 m6 A" h home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound( Z; a @2 p+ i" A0 F2 ~
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 F/ G1 h) |! t8 H since about the middle of 2007.
% k7 {) n# ?% Z - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% D9 r: \7 \5 n) v0 G5 K) J
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
" R% l/ U7 b% w+ C$ g1 y decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still: p! t% h Z4 p" e2 H
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely' Q: ?; \* g5 u
poor affordability levels.
3 c; D' {" f, ~% a8 b1 U# c - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ C1 B, P- Q8 l1 L* T vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
, O# x" f4 _6 V1 s3 s. S4 L( b prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
! q. x: a& h, V/ c! R# u Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to* U& p5 k% ]7 T! F8 q6 {! ^
minimize any downside risks.
/ N7 ?) U7 f; M$ D - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market1 m: K; l1 s: w; @6 I
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is5 `: A% d, d6 U6 P) G3 [
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
/ R6 n% Y K$ W1 @ x 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ B' T+ d; K/ }7 U being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
. B# C* u7 r# S" P - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
4 Q$ i% U1 _ q6 O: N Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus, z5 c9 P3 n) M- C
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
( P; G2 p) t8 l9 ~. T" E reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! X4 p3 Z0 W# m- s ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only( h) {$ O/ ^& E8 a0 B7 Y; k, E
modestly in recent years.
+ l$ @0 t7 d5 s0 }- B6 k& R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* u* J3 E$ f2 D
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) c: R$ H0 A6 n) P spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" s7 Z2 s9 I/ g$ Y3 T4 I
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
C/ Q4 x. H, i0 u2 h4 U$ j. m8 } following two years of deterioration.2 V j. I, M2 B3 F& Q& {7 R
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