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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - K: ~6 N% } W8 \$ M4 u. C
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
5 ~8 N$ m: B) n* [middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
5 J: P3 }5 I+ t$ pgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,/ I7 v2 M4 l7 B8 e) y2 F) _8 U
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.6 q3 |# p5 M- ]& j U# k
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
5 x( A' h3 x9 O7 E* V6 |* t8 Gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
- M3 Q" k4 y% g& _" v: bimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
# J% { h2 S9 Q0 {6 X, v: @1 Nmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
1 `. W% K7 _) h5 b9 @% f RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
?1 k9 Q" k4 b, nworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
8 i# r1 \- _# h$ T" hwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
; S% P/ c& A) E# ?( `2 qsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.2 t" v9 V/ K) y: z4 c8 h$ S, V/ A
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the% _' W6 o" G, K7 g3 s
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
+ D/ ^1 b4 a: a/ u* _! ]! {home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008., Y0 i' U: ]& \5 U; f# @
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
: M7 S }7 L$ s8 _! Z) {; [standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and; \8 m+ w1 Z. Q Q, q1 U/ j, `3 E
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 q( q0 f3 k) t$ U. Q# | According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
" C c" [' H1 S6 `may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
& Z4 r. m N! ]/ lthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
/ {. T- q, E& U$ N; {historically depressed levels.: S" |! Z3 N n% K
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
; \/ L- Q" w" g" _* u6 zof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
2 d# r# J% H a- b9 W5 Rprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the5 S/ E" W3 q l( J' K8 Q# G/ A$ l
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
a! X! E$ Z/ i* j# genormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
9 D6 b+ P& z9 [+ v$ S. K1 S3 f- f5 smonths ahead," added Hogue. _8 |/ Q* A/ m; D( U
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
1 d V) x" K, r# c q( N0 Lcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
9 x, ^) r% P( M( o& o, t42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
0 e/ w7 Y$ u( J6 o1 m" ? The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for; y5 @8 V6 G e# M/ L
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these" j, G, ?6 K+ B F) }
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
# S$ m+ Q \ x }* J$ ~2 Y( e. a6 rtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
$ H3 J& Z% a3 c, ~# ]; v, W The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
+ H8 c E7 g1 L7 ~! \2 U8 ^based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
( h, W0 y+ E: k- K2 Qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
4 ]1 u5 V( d, V1 D' W; S7 Z$ z4 mincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( C( E3 ~/ _# J4 N# Y* i
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) C# h* [1 K& iFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership+ K1 B" e* U' Y! D& H
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
+ E" Q3 x; A5 q2 Z3 v+ eper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
# V5 ?) `( g6 E2 _7 G) ~! |
6 t7 g4 u+ U& N <<, J) p- \0 D$ `* T# Y' {, j( i7 G
Highlights from across Canada:4 R2 s4 d) t+ k- t( W
" n7 c0 R* f2 Z/ z
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has8 j; l: _2 k* D* L. D2 T8 k
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing- q9 [0 M) Z7 Z+ E, G
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: G8 l3 B, y/ T9 `
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 n% |: a$ v4 S+ m% M7 m since about the middle of 2007.
4 S( V# |% ~1 z! r, d, t8 x' S - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
% B$ K2 i$ ?5 M6 F& b frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to0 N4 v' `$ j! l
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
& j9 H! ?% @+ D# h' q+ A t/ j, ~ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely$ R( r) h! E8 g/ f$ Y4 d& e) C
poor affordability levels.
/ ?$ f/ O' F4 N% d& x9 V( z - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
: y" v) {) Y* T6 {" t" A vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and% K# |6 z+ s Y$ X( L# B
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
% B: ]8 _+ Y' w# F* M' h9 ^- u) t Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
+ R( f! }# s2 R# R minimize any downside risks.
3 C) R. s; K6 D' A, |( C" A - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market B" P3 _/ K0 M, ]( i/ M
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is; y2 A" Z; z2 A, n4 q
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
; _6 G. @ X9 U5 @ w% e 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
- E2 `" A# r) _8 X6 g1 _ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
* g: C3 }6 { M% A! _1 K( \ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
; w: R9 i M' P" M R Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus8 R# W" W4 p/ J1 P B
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up# {0 S, h, n" Q" L1 L9 f
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* O8 I/ T( p0 v' ]1 V+ y U/ K$ j3 | ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 O$ ~% `, r# n7 B5 _, s% ` modestly in recent years.
( v' D2 ]0 N' r$ y" | - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
8 V! Z" C$ }7 {5 t, c! A _ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot- E i' _* e+ w* \8 O
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward; w/ q0 G+ o- ^! o0 N, }
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability$ O, n2 [1 @* h9 h' u* W& o
following two years of deterioration.- @; R4 e0 B5 W* _
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