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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
- u$ b; D A. C0 }0 m, ~, A TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the; Y" b! Q# b# g( P2 T0 b
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
, G+ ]. i8 B+ P, cgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
( Y% |$ @% X+ ~/ e" waccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. C$ c( b: f, @7 M; I9 o5 M' @
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"- ~6 I) `: L& L5 u
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is- i- o% z6 [# r/ n
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
2 d9 [! w( W, [( ]measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! E1 R' C4 o/ Q) }3 O% ^6 N
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is8 `4 T" V8 ?6 z2 \ D2 x
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,. g' F! C B) N" W
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
: u# s6 J# z( Y3 Osustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.* J, Y+ v; U4 t. l( P0 Y+ y" Z
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
0 H6 `' i7 p9 i! hproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
9 r b# K8 x: f1 M/ a) Ohome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 i- `5 J6 H) I9 Q8 ~" F2 IAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 y3 Z8 s3 {6 K1 d+ V* J5 wstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) V6 R9 b7 c" x% Athe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
; t7 |& M9 C) Y( a( l5 b According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets9 x, f9 H! X9 \% Q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in" h: Z* H4 v5 g9 g8 x
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
. {9 P/ z% J# H6 p! h/ Zhistorically depressed levels.
8 n- L3 C. _2 F6 G Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost2 L3 y: s# d6 R, I: k' H
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House7 n1 G. j: N) V' ~' N+ r
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the7 G, }" P q' t+ o
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- d; {# l3 [2 U; V! @enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the, m0 q$ z9 C5 S4 ]: E
months ahead," added Hogue.- h4 }' L# m, f/ d( E$ ]
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest- Y. G2 i" W1 k# C
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
! m. b, N3 N' o8 ^42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.$ x$ j6 q( M' B
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for$ n& {! b4 R2 h/ R
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
A/ V* [3 Q$ D3 s5 F( Qcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
' p* ?- K* n/ R1 Atakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. W2 d. w! R+ M: h0 `6 z The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
2 a5 {+ q+ N+ Q. b6 s" O* z% N sbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
: X3 d; m' d1 I W$ ]7 pbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: X a" W3 O% i$ k; T, e. [2 x
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard: s2 R: s/ [! w$ J4 t% G
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
: w; W' q* H! PFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership8 K8 N5 Q" E1 B+ @) B6 S- [
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50( l( X% G4 W5 k, j% X. _' L; p
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.- v$ \- |; x# }
! g% a. g$ m4 G+ s& f, f% f <<6 Z* ?, ?, U* F# X$ x
Highlights from across Canada:
1 a$ u& w" X# L) \1 A) c! ^; b/ [+ Z8 F: h. \
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
# d- n* Y' H( \ s4 q intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 x7 B( `8 j- Q; u. J' m o1 ?+ V1 K
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
! m: _/ W$ b# X- S) \, b+ ^ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
' w" ^" h( Q' ^. { since about the middle of 2007.4 K% C4 S9 ~0 ^, P& n
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
* V3 X# i% e& i! G# { frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 j/ e; R# C6 v8 ^, d" g2 b0 X% {+ V
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 ~0 G2 _ O/ p6 h( j( k( p largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
. j5 _0 E) o7 O poor affordability levels./ z1 f9 H( r7 K
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* i( [, f) }0 F" M8 F4 z
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ c& F; O1 |: K, }8 y3 v$ f8 a prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.- f) f: o$ N$ n, o
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to. R3 F# o4 D8 z) ^7 A3 F: c |
minimize any downside risks.. z' Q2 B. o' t* H5 k* |, k2 b( C! [
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market7 t# w3 o4 X% q+ _ Z: u
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
" f2 }( E% s4 {0 ~ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
6 C2 F/ p0 J3 l6 V% \* x 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
W9 u' h$ r" q being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
" ]! u( c h( D9 [/ f - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in$ @$ K% r! Y3 P6 X9 `' I$ w
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' N0 \/ S$ o" Q* T' v' m
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ c: x, c x* u4 ?0 {8 ]
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be: c0 ~6 `" w# V7 _# q* q. f
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
# Z5 H* ~! {2 l( }0 i. U+ h8 G; \3 g modestly in recent years.
4 _, l" v3 s3 P - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
- b7 I2 U& p+ d: t general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot- Q, A7 U- _* [* t
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward! j1 n+ ~( L; p/ x4 l* V
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability, m. w1 \; ~. X1 d1 [- C
following two years of deterioration.+ K' y% N8 p: h9 d
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