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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
: r6 o) y8 e2 w, u% J, v2 e; m TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
' m' R4 a8 @2 U4 fmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
" ^1 p+ _' l7 z' tgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,) k3 @5 u8 t( x$ n
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
" R6 L9 w/ i, N9 `, m/ u "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
! g1 q2 y5 Y4 W L; qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
6 {0 ?3 F" H6 Z- u6 N0 Rimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
: x# x/ t) u; K. |measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
) [) O4 J6 f+ e; K' X RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
# _7 {0 p& ^. n! z2 oworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
" l- x8 A' ~. ]* [which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have; x9 R) T0 c/ i0 F3 M7 N! P2 I
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.5 I- G; |' O6 h
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: I! w2 s, k8 T8 {* yproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
1 ^+ g7 v8 G, B1 ~home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.1 `* [6 |5 z4 K
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the; j" L4 }6 f6 u, u
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 f, [4 P; O5 W" \
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
+ j. ]$ T! R1 U; P7 H According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
. d a, `7 } U# ]# X7 Fmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
+ m# y; j7 }" y" l1 kthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at/ G6 k$ f8 n0 K( K d
historically depressed levels.( `' t! w0 y. S2 j5 W
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost0 `- z) R4 T! e" V0 b7 r
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House. b; D! I0 Z- z- H6 d/ }# W
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 e6 o8 a Q ^) h3 P% {, p
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) u% b% x8 s# A: k; {" |enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the" N) D! J6 g/ C' @8 w8 D- @
months ahead," added Hogue. `% z. T8 V4 d9 J1 v4 C
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest5 K8 P: L! [- m3 Q
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary H' i. Y- M/ P8 d( a5 r# W
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# p: ~6 O2 F. A, v. \$ W8 _ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for6 |+ K" R# U; x$ H* l
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
3 l# a) R2 Y9 c# w0 [! Hcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only4 T" L9 ]5 @3 r7 T
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
" \0 c7 D- ~; ?. @2 ], x3 Z The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is, C2 o) |/ |7 A7 W$ m: q5 l% d4 N
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
8 ? ?" w* U4 N3 C3 r! t2 \- Mbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
6 k5 w& y, ]$ j' Q( C4 v% P4 x/ ~including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 L( r: k" ?; Z( Q0 [
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* v2 o8 ?0 t3 h. }4 FFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership' F7 I8 b; E8 y/ ]
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
: R$ e5 f3 L8 O2 d, Nper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
7 O& E# M. a- E* u o# |0 N$ L2 } c' C
<<
' R- Y% I$ z" r R Highlights from across Canada:
/ d( X7 h3 ? [/ D8 q9 ]% z) d# v/ p) c4 x
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has2 d3 j& d% _+ ~7 T
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
0 r5 J8 u# t; y home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 o: @6 \# P) Y) j only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track# r* K3 O' I' U) Z' `, s' k8 g
since about the middle of 2007.! M/ b3 a0 y! I9 ?
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the- o" U# Y3 q, [; F7 q4 U4 F- o8 C" I
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# m5 @: a, ~ E2 h
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 p8 S" E7 O9 x$ @: \- }! { largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: ?7 q3 |' q- a: w3 o poor affordability levels.
_. q0 T2 ?6 ~ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 H3 y5 Y* {) A1 j8 P vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and* y# m9 L1 ^" O$ f
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.1 @- D" ~* E) J0 ]# H8 Q
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to* I' Z, K5 j- ]' d/ X; t
minimize any downside risks.
) p$ z7 E& c; J/ N7 c# D9 H$ w4 \ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; X8 Q" i% z) j/ Q* Q conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is2 L( B+ S& M" C1 Z0 V' g2 @
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early' I9 m3 q4 V* |5 M4 M0 B
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
3 b2 a9 a+ A/ z- _0 G: y* W being restored to levels closer to long-term averages." W! ?3 n5 l, N' f0 x* i9 _
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
$ Q4 r' e6 M; ?/ y: o1 M Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% X" g. c/ K" I1 Z far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
5 y0 O# n- [/ S: y; |8 b; ^7 e reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
1 j# g1 x! B" y1 E4 ]' N ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
* Y3 T9 ?' ? \7 G$ a0 y modestly in recent years.
! p1 d% y3 b) x" ]* \% b - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ F; Z' I* F6 G% N; }3 V general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot( \0 k% G, |2 g6 \1 z- c1 ~( ~
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
- @$ q1 ?+ D& [7 c! ` price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
3 {+ A8 t) I# I0 W6 r8 G @$ e4 W following two years of deterioration.
' ~6 y$ f% k5 e >> |
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