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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC / E$ b6 v$ o* r( m# ]( |4 @, x; [2 u
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the7 W9 s, Q! F% P
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
4 g: t; L' y$ G$ Ugains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 g1 q! I) K9 K# U$ iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
( k8 M, r: `8 i- E6 i1 u7 s7 o8 X "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
; H7 L; G0 \; p( @8 qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% v' {0 i9 d/ @+ c
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 E A$ O. r3 V6 l) y; Z5 S+ S
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" R; g+ C8 A1 |& ?) N9 w! w
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 [" I0 W8 R* W' K3 Tworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! z0 ?% l4 m3 N' G2 [which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, L8 E" F- M5 J O% qsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
. q5 d" @+ Q- @ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
1 d# C6 n; K8 N yproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
% q8 M( A9 J+ O6 W khome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( m( |: l2 g( V2 x, N5 q
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
; s. T. C) ~" B5 P4 q( Estandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) z' j4 P' |+ A( v, v; `* C; F# hthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. B8 ]# d$ X- j According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets5 ~0 i' O/ Y! |8 H9 a$ G8 N
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in& h4 a- z# r- f; z8 n
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, C( d; q: |5 ^4 _historically depressed levels.! ?8 r. N b) K" a# K
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
# ^" m1 j& h4 Wof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
2 j# l/ _: a- x5 lprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the% T) i9 q' Y% j" k; [8 T
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This* Q! R5 P7 P- z' m! R+ J3 w
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 `8 p2 ^5 U' H( M( i0 f6 |: Y$ _$ g, _months ahead," added Hogue. m! e; d" [/ u
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 ^; J0 S* R x3 ]
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
0 b4 i8 E. |5 y' E% J) M) l/ t42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent." a5 n/ u, i0 v: H2 I
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for3 }2 d) L9 Z G: H; G2 S6 W9 N9 ^3 Q- C
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, z% o/ ^5 z P( h" Z3 N
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
# S7 o' m) o( J" ~0 d# ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.# F7 V& `& e }# Q- G
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 ^" G' l! {( `8 ]8 N. l$ b6 f
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
% D* t8 t* ?0 o8 @& T1 s& ?* W! sbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
$ G! ^: ? \8 S5 o* Rincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
! t f7 d7 e' W% }# ~. fcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 r; g% _* S5 u* c, c+ m1 @
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
+ ^% ^& B. Q {/ y# O9 J/ a1 vcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50! @- }5 Q: t( J* L( g
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.# S3 L8 g P5 D) J6 b" |, Y: }
% y8 `$ m6 w7 s: [ <<
8 Z8 w/ b. h5 ~) j1 `; H Highlights from across Canada:* M6 O, c$ T1 w1 i; l. e3 m9 n
4 U9 R& ~3 U' W. X0 Q - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has0 o+ U3 @/ v* x' l: ^
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing1 x$ T$ \/ M4 P, |- f
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: a# s' ~1 W: q( z- v
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
4 t% W# [, c1 Z, V' m; H since about the middle of 2007.) h5 A: T7 x' @$ i% |* P3 R4 O$ H* K% X
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& d8 ^+ {) |5 O+ \# _/ b
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
% m. y w4 G( [3 s8 W* N# h( ~ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still9 s9 v _- g, i$ _ \% T
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
% [- _3 M6 x$ I" R2 h: ^ poor affordability levels.
+ D$ k& Y7 S! O+ c9 {' F2 X, c - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the& _* A$ C; E0 M) g; \( G
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and5 {3 z `9 l0 A5 W; N* s
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
0 R( g8 M: h \, _$ l! B Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to. a; A2 `; h, h# G+ L
minimize any downside risks.
) k+ E* c* l3 s- z) Z! h- _ n - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
' Y& w8 z5 h5 x7 |" M conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is, W3 y+ u! u! u+ z
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* K, s/ M6 [' ?! R8 Y
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
f( D7 l1 ?+ W& ^3 w1 A being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
& M, \) ~: Y! o - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in! j9 b2 o$ a! }
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus r9 e; N! V6 _. G- S* Q( Y( Z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- Q3 t2 t7 |7 Q9 I. ?, f, B
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: L- T/ X+ a5 e" _, v9 R8 G# p ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
5 P7 H6 P$ _# S' H) \ modestly in recent years.
$ b* t+ y' P1 @( U - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the- P( x; w0 h; ~+ v& I; u. k( t S
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! g+ Q2 ~) b( f
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% ~- r" B5 K: w0 i
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability8 N( I# Y# L, g0 p
following two years of deterioration.9 q- v* S X8 p7 g: j- x
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