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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # b% c) A: F1 _* @- X- H% q
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the) k9 p" V D9 w
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
7 \% `4 c) l% V& u. ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* t8 g; x; U' a! d$ taccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.& W6 F0 K" i- y2 ]- f! N' c. B
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' H4 b0 v) [/ S5 S1 csaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is& a. A C# y" f" u
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability+ A& d$ B* y9 W8 @% p/ L
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
' P4 [) @+ y& I# V! s/ s RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 K# c, d& e; [2 p0 }
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,, V; d$ e; x8 d3 C7 w4 @' k3 A
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have" r0 W! S6 ^! A
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. c7 W2 K. u6 f9 l; t5 `* i8 q2 g" L
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
* Q4 @1 ^. r" k4 c1 ?* m+ W. _proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
# e. ^. r b3 u0 Ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.- E+ S' i- d; L9 k4 P
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
; W" r5 ^: N. W. F D$ Fstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
( |, n3 u% d% z/ U2 o! Tthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
7 W) o3 Z6 R! k According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets$ y" n1 w6 k# I* b% R: V( M3 m. H
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in% d- H7 X- m% Q8 x# H8 b# Z* p
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at8 A# a; \5 X8 \2 l% W
historically depressed levels.8 N' q3 \ i8 Z& f; D, @
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost4 C$ f/ k/ A, j+ K
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
$ O" a1 i* T( e' ]( cprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the" ]: C; Z! k8 l! D
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) P ~ L4 j. denormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the2 Q' y4 a4 ?# K& J. s( g4 _
months ahead," added Hogue.
3 N4 @" f3 f% w3 ~# w. } RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest# E/ ^7 a/ A I7 G0 K5 r3 w- R
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
; s7 N4 h9 a" \6 x. Q4 ?4 G- g; O/ q42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
) j+ K: J2 ?2 l2 r/ w" L The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
# s" q3 E Y2 E# s# E5 ma broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 r% G& h7 x, i9 Icities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
5 Z& |7 _; T5 ]8 Q# Ctakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
; H c2 E4 ^, e. o+ ^+ Q9 \) I6 r+ I The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 h$ W+ D( m# W5 w
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property* S: ]0 p& x/ L( N6 C) O1 a# b
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: X. c) `& d; K! {6 f* N o
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard0 k4 `( c) y, [
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. R- T& B8 K& j% L/ q& a) ~$ \
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
& f5 O$ s$ C4 j% u7 Zcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
2 _- t3 u% t7 [5 X3 W6 Kper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
5 F1 m6 A6 s0 o' e" T W# B4 D' H6 N$ A7 n+ O( u2 N
<<
% `5 |" M/ C0 H9 j" \; } Highlights from across Canada:7 Y$ ~' E% U4 |$ S
" c/ W/ R* ]0 n5 M' H - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has. ?% ~! Y( h& m; ?5 A1 k ]. V
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
8 q7 G) }' z5 ~1 u- s% y, b# |! w home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; b% x7 E1 R; G( @
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
- H- s! U. ~: }/ Y' u since about the middle of 2007.
7 G" r4 }' H! ?0 M/ }/ S# G! A5 g - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the; l" u3 \: v$ D! a
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
]* R" G' `8 M# Z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still8 J P2 s \" r6 \ I0 c$ h# s) Q! M, f
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely5 X( n/ _, g& j4 {% u2 W( ~
poor affordability levels.. R* A$ ?3 N6 {1 H7 K/ e' S
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the! H) {2 m9 n# S, b% n
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and( s3 k: [8 I0 q
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
1 o: Q) L) [* U: g4 ?8 G& C1 Z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to& A' C# K1 t/ g0 x
minimize any downside risks.
: I1 ?- c. q; z% P5 y3 \ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. M9 h5 k" ^2 T! ^. }: i+ r3 b
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ f, ?5 V% B) J$ |$ i
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early1 |' g0 p; x. b" W
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
5 K. D7 v+ T R5 G being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
& m* Y% a4 n5 m! U3 E - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in+ g6 ]1 M. X: Q( Z
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
* Q7 j# K' D$ {3 ?2 ? far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
5 M. s3 ^( o1 C4 |. p reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 d- o' X8 {2 e) p: A/ D, l# i# t
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 y5 j# ]; G7 X; o
modestly in recent years.
, o0 K" {0 O7 F' Q2 E# }9 t - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
: o8 M. a) X/ @# X( A9 ]1 U9 u general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
3 @* T0 x' h0 ?- R spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ C9 H( \3 c- M
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability6 }6 Y0 J) F, |. {5 u( g
following two years of deterioration.
$ z8 K, N( O. k9 S" ? >> |
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