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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 C& |8 T0 y! }1 d' w% E
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
q4 a' J) n. g; C6 W3 lmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive: ^$ ]* R, X+ J
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
" X5 R- {! Y: T( h! D# ~" v6 Maccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
7 k. L+ ?3 z. d; C "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"5 I t6 `1 a2 ^( B
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
! m$ O5 {' y' S. a" e: bimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 @2 K, _, R' d8 O6 `
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."8 t" Y0 _# N7 D3 `: d7 N2 m
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
5 b# b d- Q- n, k7 r5 s1 qworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
& P, Z5 O) U9 Fwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
; S1 e( F+ F) {' u; A2 `+ t! e. t; @sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
$ u, r0 `# l8 i! F! A The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the( ?+ r3 ] ?7 H' p: a
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& H4 y1 \! @4 j" C
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.: M4 X3 [5 g* ^/ v
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' ^$ m' C+ h4 s$ nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
2 [4 [* `/ H; } \8 \the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.# I& g, o2 ?+ t' e
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets( B7 T2 Q- U+ ^) L
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in) b) k: S& h% G; c; p# ~
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at/ K( D }; f% V- y" U5 R
historically depressed levels.- o4 E }5 w; k/ N9 N, K4 ]
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost; J' L6 V, w- r7 ^3 R
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House. M9 ]9 {1 r2 e5 i( N
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
/ i$ m4 Z) s+ V7 X8 bhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: T6 ]- j; J2 E" O$ P% Q6 s4 y1 Tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the5 \- e6 Z4 _7 K# D6 o
months ahead," added Hogue.
3 n: ^! k1 D0 y( G4 Q% V o RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 _: V% l" g% @) }* ^
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary- W2 ]- j$ K# c# r1 |
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 ^% l: H! R/ t1 U9 N- t- V# I \ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 o' { o/ W/ \$ F
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these+ r) k8 L* e5 y! x/ J) B8 _. ]
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
( ^3 Y! E' t# A( ]2 ]takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.3 ~" W7 C; C! o
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 m7 ?3 K) P5 v9 }* P0 a
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
P9 j( o9 k. [* y/ xbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
9 D0 z2 t& W, _) A+ B& y a7 Mincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
) t. k0 n! ]3 ]% o E# qcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.9 h1 Q" a' Z$ ?0 F, r
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 J" M) c p) `' Icosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 h, u$ z( A$ q$ p& d. O, L0 X
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
& H g3 J1 S$ r- u' m2 L$ o) z0 Y B, F2 K4 h2 j4 R% d5 i
<<7 x" P! W3 p/ R$ r1 W4 j2 r( F( x& b1 h
Highlights from across Canada:
' N. y U& F8 z0 h" r0 C' t, w/ M# m' I, H8 F
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has- i; V4 x }* p6 C# E5 o
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
3 V2 L8 ?3 A7 v0 ^/ ^. t home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
7 i9 p" C" j0 c2 M only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track4 J2 D1 z! O; ?1 i, x5 D6 r7 i
since about the middle of 2007.9 z. N& o9 V* g9 t' Y5 m
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
: Y, p$ v6 w9 h. ]; [( Z frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to% v! L x/ J% A
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 R/ m& A6 l: s3 Y7 N' W largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
. d1 _) y1 Q. ~6 Z; h$ P poor affordability levels.* Q" v7 _' \" |/ U
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 ~/ n1 Q3 a) M& g R0 O$ q vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
& v9 F3 p3 `+ o1 v) O1 F+ w prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.3 p- w; W3 U& l: J# }
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to$ H H( y1 u' p8 b7 p
minimize any downside risks.
6 r) i! S8 q3 h4 `4 ~ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
$ Q+ V3 b' i2 {# Z- g$ Z! c2 N conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is2 P4 B! s: Z" h1 F
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early5 V O% m' U& K" H1 X
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
( Q( {" m7 i, j" n) x$ X8 i being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
H+ s: l( P! j2 x1 n- K. c+ ` - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
" l' t* S: F; i7 i( v2 J: n Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus5 }! M3 ^6 v. z3 ^& ?5 a' j' J, }" r
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
2 y: p5 {: r: _/ t reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 d3 x. F$ L8 e# Z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
0 x0 q; z3 k8 i' l modestly in recent years.
2 i1 {) s' c4 U2 N0 t. R, \, o - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
6 K- ?2 D+ T1 v& E- c general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot# b5 M4 \; e4 k: Y+ d$ X
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
O1 ~, D% o2 r2 t. \ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
& W& k3 N. t5 e I following two years of deterioration.1 J5 H) _3 C" S
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