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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 8 {9 l# M2 y. @( w8 i( O( G% N) m
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the6 d. M1 @; E z+ O, Y
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive; \, T$ i" `1 S- i) G- M8 u
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
1 e) _# J$ s$ s$ xaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
7 \+ e0 h3 ~8 A, A1 l* W "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
7 L0 j: b, G6 I- |* W5 Tsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
/ k! E6 d! ? eimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability. q5 U' p% M+ m' z; Q
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
! W" w: x, w! _* ^$ e' g! B! `1 D6 I RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is: n- V/ u7 U7 |+ o
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,3 l5 g* Q' c* _* ?5 V$ K! u
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
. Q& m; P3 G0 e1 ~# Wsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- t, u0 G( h( _ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
- y. f0 f9 y" k9 _. j" y* Hproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# p l9 O/ Z7 s& S/ t" f2 D
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
2 J" J, a1 a8 o: G6 g5 h7 }; J( u0 }Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 v% I3 C1 i: `' Z5 e7 U2 Y1 lstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
. o/ Y9 Q) G9 Q# B K0 Wthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.7 E8 o+ `. J$ U! p: R. U
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
, H. [/ T/ v6 Z' lmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
& D5 W1 ~. O% a8 t b% Ythe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
. G: e6 [9 G& h! \0 T- uhistorically depressed levels.5 O% `. Q1 p& |6 n( j
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost/ }: C6 B, L% }# I! a
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
$ X4 j2 a2 ]6 M" Q: e8 Q1 O1 dprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
- p! D+ p, _7 Y1 |/ S/ a7 D+ { ihands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This( W+ f( }" L$ `$ C( F, g
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% S/ |0 _$ ~/ |8 s) H W
months ahead," added Hogue.
' x4 z. ~& Z& M7 \ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 k% ` Y8 @" C' r* q& F; o
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary' U; y) d+ v1 I
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
Y5 [# Y) v5 g' @" o8 w) r7 p The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) R" O/ }/ L U4 Xa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
8 v+ @; l$ |9 z% v) W0 C& M; Lcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only0 Y6 C6 s; G# w% g% h
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account., B) G7 e$ ?. ]
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
- S/ i0 |: t' \6 T2 G4 ]based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
: l9 `# k, L7 W+ _$ ?0 ?benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
8 w8 W$ ^# \: U3 g3 P, A Dincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
S2 V, q1 K6 i: gcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.+ U, o* i& }) n+ {' m @$ x
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
# k2 g$ E2 U/ Y( {costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50. y% r& j- e: p6 F
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 T. [' V. z5 D
% z( [! M: \- d* ^ v) y% L& U <<
1 y1 o' p5 C- Z/ `# o; n" \ r Highlights from across Canada:
/ `) m& z* j. k. v/ |" Y2 i- e) e7 Y }4 u* s1 |$ E
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has5 x" _3 {3 T1 c0 U2 S4 N3 x/ ]
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
- d0 f9 N+ f& V/ p- h4 V! O3 Z home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
/ b+ A( }5 C( W only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track G% }* D$ X7 D, G; P
since about the middle of 2007.% U8 N6 R0 M6 K; j ^- W
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the: \9 {( ~( p: C0 P& y. E: q
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to* K% ]3 Y- G% b0 W. K8 H7 m
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
- R! {# Q/ @: E largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
3 Y$ s) N; h- D4 ?' o poor affordability levels.$ q: m6 X- Z6 D5 D q1 Y0 _
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the1 `) }7 P3 o# i+ C
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and( ?+ U9 d4 U3 Q4 K9 d
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
: d1 e% R9 \" n3 W4 Y/ p! Q Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
2 E$ d3 Z- H+ D u/ s7 L$ t minimize any downside risks.
3 g: i5 {% x+ Y% W3 T2 s - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
4 W P: B# Y/ Z) K conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
' h& [. N% J) I" C. `6 L unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
J+ d {9 X( g' i& o7 n# f! ^' V& k 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly+ \9 h- i+ Z- Y7 s- ~
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
* C5 |* {( X) w: O a3 @- O7 Z - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
; q3 J3 \9 w1 P4 d! N Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ J: E$ R, {9 l' z8 p" A# J far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
! N9 l% ]4 N: H8 G reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be2 N& u5 ]" Z. j W! K2 B. W, w
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
* @0 q" f& P4 j) {: k modestly in recent years.
1 ]( r9 H. ?8 V& z$ j# Q4 x8 e( I# Z - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 s9 v( y3 c' x3 F. A
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
2 ^( \+ E4 J+ [% u# ]7 K% {, c/ | spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
9 F1 h, y( o/ t% B" n7 b price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
# I! W2 `6 l+ _: M' t% Y following two years of deterioration.
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