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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( Y4 q8 ~ B9 v# N TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the( k" P: o1 s& w1 K" L" B, u
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
" T" W' U7 b! a* _gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,# g1 P- s0 o: ?! v4 B9 a, V
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 t3 `. H3 z. B
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 j; m& u" p2 B# ~said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
F: a0 |7 h" _improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability4 Q- W# W& t1 l, t0 j% b: Q
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
. z0 t& b. s0 c% r1 g4 [ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
: e& b8 V" m- n- N4 x, O" eworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- h/ }- H: L7 w: D) }& |" d) `
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
( t W# F+ l& @9 C/ hsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
1 A- a) n3 e+ A4 H) H& h& ] The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the+ |) B: ~" \2 u) ]+ S8 d, \ }. p9 ]1 f
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a4 {6 V/ f: V; ]# |% o/ ~0 b
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
h# u) v0 J( i6 i+ Z3 tAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the, F5 R. c: N [4 a
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 T. u$ q7 a* M; I( }9 v
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.7 z( s' U+ y8 O$ W$ J
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 u8 \9 m6 a8 {: N4 ~! F6 S
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in& X8 |7 Z0 W$ a! |
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 Q6 r8 A. W: p* G9 chistorically depressed levels.) U- t$ \/ Y- n" q; q
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
+ d' l# `% \% ?3 s1 R4 A$ Kof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House8 ?1 r" y' G/ o/ q6 v/ c
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
; w. Q3 r# V3 X& b( thands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This- Y( n0 g% G& P0 y
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the- ~- ?, M3 ]. r* H8 v& \; Z8 O
months ahead," added Hogue.
! O6 F+ Q6 l8 e9 I( ?9 n RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, k" ~; e& D# x! I& B8 j0 l7 ccities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
8 k- ?" y$ ]. ^" v' O: ^4 p" U$ X42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
; L' K3 ~; `2 X+ E# _5 O; T The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
: D$ W9 x, S3 U" L4 g$ La broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these$ C6 Q3 J/ I1 l9 w9 ^! N; v
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
7 B1 d& ]/ q3 U4 w. ytakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.+ ~$ R" P D; l' x q
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is7 h, B$ t7 i% |+ [' q& B& \
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
5 `0 W7 I' D' p7 dbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented, R; k) v* S+ ?3 Q- Y2 ?- R9 U3 R
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 T! I% [7 A6 R& O/ Y$ R) c
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
+ @; v3 k, o" {. D) t5 ^! w- yFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership5 D: o& u: {7 j, K( P2 Z' o
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
% t x7 W6 {9 P& S7 b6 Hper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
( I8 L4 O& W& n: ]; v [1 k2 ]* \$ Y+ v4 E/ q: r6 x3 f
<<1 G* `, s4 @8 w, Q% k$ N
Highlights from across Canada:8 |7 {' n4 n9 ?
8 q! l2 X4 k7 n: g- N$ r, s, f - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has1 f3 T# {1 j7 N' a9 [6 O' p
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing3 [& N0 t6 |( z
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
* m4 }4 T9 R" A- L8 l only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 }/ \) D: a4 d$ |* y& u since about the middle of 2007.
: N1 q& d7 P, c3 {& B6 ]" L5 M - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& |3 j, a# t) u) z5 L7 p1 I
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 Q$ k+ k2 V7 m. F
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still% e0 f6 F9 M* g5 W! Z3 Y% J0 j
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: P8 @' G7 B4 P9 G, }6 R poor affordability levels.& i, W6 W! S' b
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
- }5 E `$ Q7 T vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
! ?- f ]) Q/ H7 o/ v d prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ S7 ~: {# g: J# n6 E5 F" r" V8 A Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to8 D0 r2 [5 ?7 q! `6 z* v, w
minimize any downside risks.! e+ l, l+ m& E3 e% V* q* R, q+ } @5 x
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market* y4 m* `4 X, a; G1 `; h
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is% O3 Q$ V* J2 e6 ]9 p! h
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early5 x5 [2 y1 H% B8 V: y( \% {! b
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly4 k# Z0 d) p+ T( \$ v
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
$ q2 J! ?% A d4 I- O# a1 j7 c' N - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
7 J8 A. O; @. I; @+ K/ E2 [ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
2 ^5 b r: S l, D6 F; W far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ v+ A2 y6 L5 S0 v- W2 } reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" |; T* ]2 a. d" N+ [" H ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
% K' M3 ]2 U- n* D% x modestly in recent years.' G; S( ]: b; A# T+ V* z
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the( F3 P6 z2 g9 H4 j
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot+ j- i% G3 V8 Y# p. J) f
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward3 M, W, j/ y* u N$ f- {# t$ }
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability, T3 j7 j0 }. e1 z$ ~( q$ J
following two years of deterioration.
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