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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC + C. w9 Q5 B* T9 F Z' @
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the5 Q1 j1 p5 T7 |- [" D& R5 b
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive4 I/ a A( X2 J8 I; C7 u( J
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 _# G- ?0 U0 T
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: g1 G' F' h0 t0 }" w; e "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
+ h5 a6 z. h0 B4 o8 l. tsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
& e/ x3 e0 l+ T; a; }7 k! simproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
. J& M V( e2 @# xmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."6 F# N" Z' T4 e7 F
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is( i& x7 {7 q/ T) Y4 K
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, r6 i! V( Y& p: t- [which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have* S9 ~5 F$ \* G5 P+ f9 u
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes., L8 E! T7 ^- J0 I2 R8 ~6 N7 T
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
5 m% J2 L( M. Fproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a* Y, Y9 k" i6 |/ i" T
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.' A7 X- o' }% ?. ?$ r2 |
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# d" l$ d6 E4 p7 Z( d
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
# M, w7 V$ o. ~2 y2 @/ mthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.& c. w- z8 ~7 [7 N
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets# D! l) t4 }5 E" m. |" t
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
+ {& l4 x$ u- \the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
6 a% E0 ? w) c: R! x) mhistorically depressed levels.7 i8 H6 K- j4 `0 ?0 w9 P0 \' e
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
4 R" f( }! T T) @; Vof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
/ _; v9 d3 F7 ?. o [prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
' ^, a8 _; I) R3 d' jhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This+ M( S6 O- ? N! J
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% K g) ]$ e; ?1 R3 [5 v
months ahead," added Hogue.
+ n. ^ O% D! c5 U* j RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest: S1 }7 I' r# P) G/ p2 e( \
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 {" V8 n2 s( M4 A( x42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
' A) A7 F8 E. V' u. O9 O% U The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for4 Y% d5 ^/ g+ h. s; Y
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these( I5 g" |3 X! s: f& o& m) t
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 a+ g1 z ~2 z7 l. I; Gtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.0 P$ ] f, M# ~9 S9 ^5 R/ A. f
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
! L1 c/ _- p. ?, t0 H7 cbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
, O, a5 e4 z5 ~2 Q% W- |' Cbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented7 |5 A0 j. `9 Y* T2 g) ~* O
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard. g( W: o+ Q; v; w) |, M
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home., x% Q" Y7 m$ P: V
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
4 ?7 O6 e9 s) \costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 500 a: c: J3 i3 b1 x
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.! O% ]- I- F5 }( o5 Q0 [6 e
V4 _. n* y6 W7 o2 {7 \' m <<& u0 y8 ?) G$ H& E8 \3 _6 D3 O0 w
Highlights from across Canada:) @0 l5 N! ]' Z) `* h! o; j5 c+ s
: U2 z- A4 P: K+ T4 c; e - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
1 E" |* @: N. ?5 p8 s9 n3 |2 P intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
: N V1 a; ` B* M. } home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
8 ?2 g& Y# D9 S: |% J only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track2 m C/ {. y+ P. f0 @
since about the middle of 2007.
. W: Y0 l4 B% U5 r5 Y - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 s: k: }- W1 |$ u" @6 e1 ^" ]
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
: `# X& m# C: A2 N% t decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% T( {' ]. a: V4 Y, W largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely- P7 W" E1 k7 U2 \& s
poor affordability levels.7 k, {3 D% |% V; H6 ~% {
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
' D; c7 c" H7 k x# O. o6 @! A vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and6 O& f8 u( B1 d( L
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.& A# P/ F3 D9 M1 a0 @# o
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to8 X8 d U. D7 V0 {# t
minimize any downside risks.6 g) F7 V, k+ c9 Q# \
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
7 k- K# ^+ P2 ]; T( I conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
' m Z2 m2 d9 K) y6 s unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early9 z' C; ^; V! V1 O! P( e
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 n! t3 g% x; u U. M/ l being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.% |( n( Y" @& B* g* e( I2 t! m: c) q
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
* o% K; C9 j- L5 s' n3 | Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 B7 C! { T* z1 x
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up5 ]! w0 o, C7 g8 }
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. p+ I- x% c1 P ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only( z( Q5 ?, v. y- f
modestly in recent years.: ~3 {5 h/ D- m7 K4 R0 {- _" n$ A
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
8 ?( g' C5 w) ?0 s' U- b' c4 U+ U general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
6 y$ Y3 {# L K% `0 ` spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
8 a( |; p. }6 m price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
" P/ N# \! q4 \, P9 A following two years of deterioration.: N: I) [0 t, {; N$ d2 v" h
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