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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
2 b2 v- n5 j t2 A6 a TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the, w0 o# s1 p! X2 l" i- Q) x
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
/ a3 t9 A, K; w, S5 G' s/ Kgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
! N; c2 ]% Z5 d _1 A, paccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 M) H) I3 N- B7 Y W5 n "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
! b# r6 u9 T3 U/ i& psaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
/ a9 J5 f* \# ^0 ?" Q3 wimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
6 g0 }+ g' h. M2 K, Vmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
8 u) H( w) N8 |2 m, |( ?6 O RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
$ o; g$ S& L' L# v8 Fworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,' e, I, I3 w/ S) g8 r& l: p
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
% u; A: S# w0 Y/ e8 {* I. gsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.0 T/ M1 C9 h$ `) G- F/ o6 \0 r( {, ?$ q
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the. S7 E6 R( n$ |% P: V/ c( }
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- D1 r& D7 P: G4 _home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008./ j0 s% j% v5 U; A# M; a) H) ]
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
) U& X6 x. b& Q& t0 Zstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) U; B2 v4 v. ?5 [/ u Cthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.7 \! I5 q/ {# j8 j
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
V6 t( Q }$ f' ?4 Bmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
4 Y1 K: O! X' P( `1 x1 U7 F( xthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
: v0 i* ^3 c1 G4 M( shistorically depressed levels.
8 X# u) R: Y4 b B5 r! a# y4 Z Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost2 C, v) m. C0 `
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House) k1 ^: g$ H) A+ x: t
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
7 }0 A% n: G8 } e3 J- Fhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
, ]. x' a2 o- v9 Z# z2 W9 _& p, tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the. U% R$ f+ U: w" p5 K" U) |1 X
months ahead," added Hogue.9 [6 U4 X/ H1 r: c g- c
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
& z \: l; K) @" x) P: }1 I7 i) zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary, [0 }9 A$ M5 s" E& H1 d# ~3 P+ Y
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
( `# b; \( `. w% ]; Z The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" O# e( Y5 t5 V9 T
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these8 i% s9 f4 o) O4 [ T: a( D+ N
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only N: e; N( b& U. m' d2 C
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
: t8 q8 g% H% C0 |7 x The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
4 B$ o" u# F% I1 j1 H7 }" kbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property" u/ p8 c+ ]. k
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented2 W5 r, a! U) Y$ x. I/ j+ v P
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard4 m5 c, D, c5 ~0 I; }6 P
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
2 |; z4 X9 \8 MFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
0 M2 @1 |3 C3 Y$ Q" _costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50/ H6 P% |. @! K2 v" L
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
% o8 ~1 C! D, z1 f8 i; ~) w# H9 R3 Y1 E
" i. y- c6 `* I# a$ d5 u# ?& v <<
- z* S6 a; `) c' V) l Highlights from across Canada:
" P) j, E* [# h
: e" y3 `$ u! {" y& c - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has6 p3 K9 |* M; \
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing- ^$ l% x, @6 o4 E/ G
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound) ?3 D f( N7 q4 y k0 ?. N) d! T
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
- @6 p# H K9 L0 v1 X/ O since about the middle of 2007.
6 w7 v B! r& f6 z( r* f P& N0 [ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the8 m4 n9 X9 D# I/ Z/ j# J( u. t8 Z
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
6 r9 N: y. h# O: g* {; \ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) x. `: M8 M2 K largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ @* T: D. D9 s% S# L poor affordability levels.
3 p [. V8 V- r% [' g/ D; `) G/ N - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the ~& E5 r2 F+ L$ e) n7 m
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
; G% C; q9 y2 c4 W& e prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
- p2 X2 r7 X; V& @# w, `* @ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to# s, ]% |; j- ^6 x6 P9 E* @* P p
minimize any downside risks.) {. x" {4 k W- s
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
# G* B. Y' \7 B conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
1 r, n2 G! B% S r* L( P' D unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
8 F+ n7 p! z! \- [# s: C; a 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 N$ P4 n5 V4 n8 I. e5 x
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
# U8 }0 f' ]1 P0 Y5 | - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in& C9 L* d4 v# S5 F: }5 R7 M
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus* S0 y1 b/ V3 J6 \
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up; U! i8 P; a* T' j( ?- B
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) v; M9 ?* ~8 L+ O ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, q% r4 A c }! s
modestly in recent years.
$ J3 k9 S. X) A! J: w+ w4 H# p - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the- A6 }/ F9 \+ H* t* k
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
: D/ U4 ]8 s6 B" C3 i7 n spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
; g# p- o( |" `+ l+ T; i6 P price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability1 \# t/ w- z5 y& P
following two years of deterioration.
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