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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( d" ]/ k1 x" Y* W* O/ p
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the9 ] n* c" H2 {" J- \; }
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive e( W! N) D" w# [) o6 ?
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,$ Q" l w1 u8 K& Y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." S( W6 G8 a, b) B
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
) o ^! J6 I# Hsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is/ ?6 L& _7 _) b3 W+ c- f* ]
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability9 y* f f8 m7 Z$ ~/ Y3 X( M
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 c' o' Y; J+ E' u5 r( }
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is! F* g* c3 Y" d. U$ |6 ~
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
# h! w! q c M; pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
1 E$ @1 a/ t- H+ x* Psustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
' J" g( b# ]# n8 S$ h# ?6 H' Z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& X. E% t. ?" ^7 t3 |, a
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a; d: Q: u/ ?: ]5 ]
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
- h' W9 k( f1 C& |4 ]; F* bAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
/ _0 I5 b/ @" C% c. Nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and8 D: e1 `1 @; ^+ d" ^# ?
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.6 O- ?( n4 S, W7 j
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets9 u) z0 B l7 f( u& H# a
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
1 a+ C7 V4 C$ ?. C* Dthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 X# _" I L- G3 }
historically depressed levels. K) H1 `. Y& S$ Z' n7 _* n
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& I3 F$ d6 v" t
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
3 R6 t' x* O7 W, H. A1 a& |1 sprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
1 q4 {+ S) \7 Z3 F. d8 J; B: b7 ghands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% e9 o( M+ r+ i0 }- Renormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
) f* O1 D9 ^' D4 ] P2 B" g5 omonths ahead," added Hogue.. P0 e' t0 O& E: {$ i
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest) w: t; q9 W3 ?% K) I6 w: P
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary8 D: t* ^, H+ H3 l+ J @ O) y# K
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
( M4 n. `; j# I1 i9 I The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for' T$ L5 ^1 S: S* C0 y& F% J: p
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
( L8 z# _- U* `7 e- Dcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
$ e" G" P' P2 s( M- V$ Z, xtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
9 o* e2 n# Q5 H- \; z' g The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' k4 D$ i$ m: y' Y2 hbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; u* D" A- y% j. W" i& T8 _benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented$ a& K8 {! q# g3 _
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard0 s9 r4 `# M8 q! ]
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home./ l) B! E0 C* p! @
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership+ J7 ~$ U' q# r9 L1 U0 F
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50: A7 P' n4 E6 b# d
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
1 p/ f: b3 p5 n7 K6 k( Q3 F7 D; a" t6 P, P3 z6 B) u
<<. w- @3 m( e3 a" C/ N# k) |
Highlights from across Canada:2 c7 V( `, G( L0 T* u- B) \0 X
3 V) n* p$ _/ ~
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
3 _4 l, X; A$ z; N' o Z3 } intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing/ T4 C( W) ^4 [6 b" b7 ^, S7 i
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound7 P/ V4 j' J' O1 d- n+ R; `
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track5 z( k, Z( [" D/ i
since about the middle of 2007.
* e7 `9 N$ d% n( h+ ^ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# R* T- I0 a# V" X
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to; a6 c4 a" D7 M" r$ I8 A
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 H6 Y1 y5 o( y: H7 V largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely: O! c' b U; A4 _. @
poor affordability levels.! Y0 L5 L' q; c, V
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" i4 y2 |8 n7 _/ j
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ Z ], r, x( ~" {0 }) n prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ }" a! G% N$ e% k& g+ I8 S" N Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
' o; ?+ Q; Q8 B4 E minimize any downside risks.
9 W) O; g( \$ ], }$ S: E2 d" B* a - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market2 k" U$ s( T- A' i9 S, y" p
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is+ I7 b/ t S3 \, @1 Y" ~9 G
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
4 j: |0 G, h" M* @3 C 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly# r7 S& u$ Y& K3 [0 E
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
/ g5 y* K; S( i - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
1 W9 N, d" D' D& i1 O- I# j Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus+ Y% ?6 K( V4 ~. n
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up# d' Y& _7 k6 A" Y0 K
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. D' T7 O0 o# A* O. y& f ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
0 ~# g) K C8 ?& ]; I1 G( j: o modestly in recent years.
2 m: u( \% b" R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
" A, p$ v; M. e7 ?: e I" F% i general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot3 \6 S2 v0 o7 n. n% F" ^
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward' o1 q! l- I2 i* R
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
% p/ q. ^) Y/ P% \. q following two years of deterioration.9 k; E. F$ I( x4 G
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