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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - Z* b! {- k0 Q% ~' q) K
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
5 Y1 o1 _5 _4 y) R. f% Dmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* {. s- [5 t8 E7 }. Bgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
8 h/ S5 c$ @7 R- _according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, Y; J2 i8 O, ~, h4 @: _1 } "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- e/ N8 _8 }3 B& ?said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is. }1 h" Y) j- T
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
1 z- v1 v7 V5 }8 x4 Lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
% _! I6 r2 q" H, o- E$ c; C7 Z RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
, b) F9 X2 y( q' x: }worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,. q4 w* A. f- g! V# k6 ?5 E
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
& C# _( M4 Q2 D! qsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.: r9 b2 M2 i3 d) g1 T" w8 C
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
. f, E1 F; ^5 f* T) jproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
" b' [ _4 V0 J: Ihome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
5 k' g7 W5 X1 b' o/ Q7 V# ]Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
7 {7 P8 I+ v8 s1 U3 h( wstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 q1 b6 r, m; ?
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent./ V# \# l" F) B5 m! O' w
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
% ^" p: K3 x) b9 F4 Nmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in$ P. X# Y& e$ R8 I& t' i
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 |6 o* U& }0 V: x- M) Yhistorically depressed levels.
( D* t: B) @3 l! O Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% `% [3 |7 r; q' o$ pof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
6 ~7 U- j T8 i6 c' bprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
9 V/ B+ i/ ~; ?hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This( G6 L9 o1 p3 f9 b
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the" @; y- R. \- G$ f
months ahead," added Hogue.
9 P% K/ ?* v& t' [ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest5 ?6 e, Z a% F+ w1 i
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary8 n/ X; R9 j1 D( C7 k F
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.8 z _* k( z' O# `/ J3 J, e5 B+ Q
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for$ v- Q+ t9 C* F) h) h$ g2 d+ T0 ]% ^
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' ~" ]& b7 u9 w3 Acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
) J( b& ?2 c4 l- otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account., z% X, w* r9 { @4 T+ D
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
: i) \0 _: K- E0 U1 |8 Ibased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
, D$ H6 \4 O+ ^- Gbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented6 g% h9 X( A( n
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
8 q/ x$ T' \3 r/ Ocondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
' z+ f; u" X( l5 c/ U0 gFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
. `8 U4 p; D; ~1 d$ q. Y! y5 E/ ocosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
/ ~2 j2 p/ z, t' G0 m6 xper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.* `/ X; y5 I( s
! S3 ]* V$ i; w- z- [% R' U <<4 f0 d9 }2 T9 P
Highlights from across Canada:5 K6 S8 j$ A+ Z& B2 _- U
# |1 c8 h5 W3 [5 u* [
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' Q3 e9 x; `; H' O5 E
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing. S8 G# A& ?$ ]4 l/ s
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
' A) O/ L P$ [- ?! ^! H only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track' l d* `: F6 p8 K a
since about the middle of 2007.
! S7 [+ d; X U- E( C3 \' f# o - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" K. H6 p4 u& a6 ?5 S2 K7 q frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
4 i$ P* }8 f3 k: O1 o, G decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
, t& D. w+ J% {6 M# {$ n0 n largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
& m# x- @* R: b& x poor affordability levels.: U. N6 O$ i, F/ F+ P: l3 S
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
9 F+ @6 k2 m! M p8 o vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and1 W0 W% X4 o7 x5 w% p
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
/ v! Z. D; i& A( Q8 `5 e1 [, E Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to0 _6 {% O6 t. F! M7 A6 K; r
minimize any downside risks.) b, b& G- _4 U9 `$ l
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
0 G# g0 m8 W B2 ]; ?9 B% U3 [ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is# U+ c- B) i$ Q/ D* I0 n0 O
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
% e5 [8 y1 {, `. H5 ^1 o N 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly4 a/ J j1 t% A. U$ m3 m$ W8 J
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
9 I: }$ O* K9 N9 v! E9 ^* N: ?( O0 l - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
; Z% y& f* c* e; P! ?( T Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
0 g! n3 o2 l8 M6 i9 w, P7 | far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
2 F) J5 Q# m1 L( c0 {/ ~( A reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be' n. a8 z/ ]4 F
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
; Z# ] ~/ S- N0 | modestly in recent years.5 ~! Z* |! y8 N& y9 M1 E
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
- C. v4 m; w$ L' Q general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot; ?. }- w% Y% o, n" Z% K# K) c. E
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward, K! e$ T8 l( T9 E. l- [. Z- P
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability0 ^! Z" p2 O+ n9 M+ W+ ?& j
following two years of deterioration.
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