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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC + R7 r% \8 l$ f* `5 D C9 q
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ E C$ B, K# k: D+ f8 |* X8 k
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 Q4 @0 d3 K( q1 ~4 w# `
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 N$ S4 e/ W a1 g) N4 r8 ~
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 K; h& v# y# F& B" h( b1 X& l% [ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
, |; r P5 ]) T( l9 `5 P/ Gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# r( l M7 e- ~+ U* h: d9 y2 Ximproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
0 s7 u3 z9 J R8 pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
0 x- v. c$ }9 h" \7 z RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is: n4 B7 M7 b: c
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
$ @3 } G+ c' \& U( N; k% bwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have- \: M8 O/ Q& I @( Z+ h3 ?4 ^
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; x3 k l' ^2 J* k The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
$ {, E' F% a7 m! |proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
' I( d0 k8 ^% p7 xhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
0 N0 h+ i b4 \/ d" nAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
! [0 S+ b4 Z0 S% ]standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) i, O: V$ ]) sthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. S# C6 ]7 h, A) L1 b) _9 R According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
$ e5 p: u4 o% X( u4 j7 z" nmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in+ b. k2 D0 @ Y
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, l. _& }: l' X3 l4 S* l1 u3 Nhistorically depressed levels.
) h y& E$ L8 `# [5 j5 N, h8 [" u Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
" |# I) }, x# k( T, d+ N1 z: Y* E7 qof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House9 B! M. }* j% O, S) p
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 ~& {3 H. E% i
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) m8 B4 p- h3 a" ^2 l+ Venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the- ?% o+ h2 \8 p: Q
months ahead," added Hogue.
# a0 F5 Q! ^! _- Z1 m( p RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest" X+ R0 I U# V& I% h$ p' U
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
' O ?% p" R3 W& R$ J42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 Y8 w, u+ ~) t4 d The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
# e/ d( ?5 M9 H: oa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
9 c2 r) W; N/ z- rcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only7 |) K! W1 Z3 ^! B B
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.3 i# Z J- O1 H9 H2 e
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
4 m; I7 @) K9 g; f3 H. Ubased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property' J" s, Q! X) E9 x8 K% C
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
* {9 P" h' p @* Vincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
0 H0 s* N) {2 D8 V% `condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* Q8 |" j1 W; O& hFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership; l9 \4 g' `7 p2 Q* f
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 ~) _; x+ s$ b
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 T6 J. m( ?2 J# a( ~5 h
9 X" j( h6 N5 s% Z) | <<
3 E9 R& ?0 H* J" P2 z Highlights from across Canada: s8 D) K/ M7 j. B' k! V
8 Y9 a9 a; _1 F0 g - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* ~: g) ^& F; ^5 u' ~
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
# G! U! A% G _ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
0 s0 i: s5 k* K; y# ? only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
W# K- y' v: A& d7 w2 s since about the middle of 2007.
+ h- Z" g7 J1 A - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* @8 D/ S2 s5 I# F6 G5 k
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
5 I# P$ u3 v( \9 F decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
, w; {( r! @2 r% F3 `" D largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 v# p! e- F6 c1 d0 i" x4 Q" k4 f poor affordability levels.+ C+ e& \, M- e
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the8 d7 ?7 y! R, e2 I, o
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: K0 h g& e, L& v9 t2 v prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 s$ H+ `2 M: E Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
, R9 A- p$ ^! f minimize any downside risks.
4 ]7 v! L; d' c - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market* ?6 E0 M5 t3 W+ m r2 d0 {
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
8 W. w6 o/ c8 L$ F) G unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
- ~: d+ ?0 E% [7 e( j. _& z 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 W" Z+ v' [* t+ q- q0 K being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
* o+ \. P. A8 {" w/ V9 E+ x - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in2 S& Z' E1 q" J0 C5 ~
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus# L) @; R) o- x3 p
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up+ y3 l3 q, N7 _! l3 s V5 W1 J' b0 H
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be) K3 y; Y" d% b E9 b. o+ @
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, y Z3 s, e& j! r" }/ ?& x modestly in recent years.( E t' ?- k5 r. C8 Q
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* e9 X0 f, H0 G( E2 _. X7 S. i
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot4 }. U5 @) F" s
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
" A D! P2 N1 ^ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! {1 j- G8 I; p4 {; w
following two years of deterioration., }! v. A! y& @
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