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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
9 H' c4 O( r3 c: w& b" A' }' Q TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
+ @' ? w$ X2 h, { l- K+ Vmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
6 i7 j; P# S9 o/ p7 g% R, k, Vgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
& J6 m: e5 @! ]" S! b/ A5 J+ s+ paccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics./ k1 C: M' R+ ~' c2 }
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
1 C1 Z( D% m9 z8 ~, j$ Q$ Bsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is9 r# Y5 v, b9 _2 u
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability0 I2 H/ h% l, Z' Z
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
" E6 M( G. C5 y- g RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 G ~, q5 Y$ W
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
7 @' H3 `& c! Z, o, Swhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 s+ q' v6 B# }5 x9 |sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.( q2 V+ @8 y- q$ z- D( C+ n& [
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
4 O+ u! W5 X& T/ X' ~0 {proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
9 X3 f. V; N, ?home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& t+ U& ~9 f) D& c, h3 m7 F
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
. Q& o+ C3 E0 A [- ]: Mstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and( j. @9 p/ X2 [9 N }
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. e, P; F$ v O6 ~7 [ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
% \! U; Z. X, ?6 k) r8 xmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
1 E+ Z3 u' ~4 t/ Y+ G; i( p$ W9 Sthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# v9 _+ m/ O* b) L3 e
historically depressed levels.
/ Z$ D3 \" p$ @* @9 b9 X" n Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
0 w6 L& B; I6 ^of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 r P8 P: K$ [3 n# g+ j7 _# v4 uprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
6 L2 y5 m- f$ Y# c2 U$ Q% B7 p" D. Thands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% a# ~& s. y1 |$ Cenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# B P8 o& J c/ c; g. K( w& z; pmonths ahead," added Hogue.2 u% Q: W+ l4 |, O$ b3 J
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest, M, p! M$ F8 d: S
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
1 D2 A# t7 c, k0 Z5 I42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.( Z0 S( t3 w& I% Z" [1 a
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) f* J5 k, r; r, ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
7 `+ b& B7 n/ f' acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
/ [$ a& F: i7 d/ C+ v" ?& |" ttakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
1 z6 C- `' M0 @. N; O, t7 H The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
3 {7 g6 b7 b# Ybased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
- l$ l) J* R) {" {; S/ dbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented, W' t- x$ {; a, d
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 { C7 C# @2 d$ ?/ f% s+ H
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
$ `5 S6 c+ K. E# d4 WFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
& J; s1 a6 j( I p! tcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
0 D4 U4 a) S) d7 ~: u2 Kper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.0 {; W& u9 H9 N( s3 u/ y9 J/ }
7 s& ]1 [( y! {( J: q <<
% T; _! t5 e ]; Y& B3 e Highlights from across Canada:
# O* F, o/ G: H0 g
3 a5 |5 F. R$ x& a Y - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
6 @9 D4 d% P, E& c7 M' U% z0 B/ Y intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ A% w! r; e: t) Z7 c, K/ Q. b home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound8 @/ a' g2 d" c. _' p
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track4 R+ z& t; E2 @2 k; b# p* D0 i
since about the middle of 2007., T$ B: e- W3 W2 S" I& N
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
1 I: H. j/ }3 x0 W& y frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# M8 M& y! t& A6 G9 ] D
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still- V8 G7 M- {# m# X
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ } a1 [5 ?2 f poor affordability levels.' }: _* `; z2 R
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& v6 h* }6 b @0 C2 L' N vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and7 Z ^! o4 r @$ A) ~5 Z8 z
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' F( R; m2 L& v Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 b; y) E" O/ s
minimize any downside risks.
) y4 F; |; `5 E6 X: V4 ~ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. B# P" n9 D* ]; A& o
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
+ [4 q1 x. p, B: M4 Y unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early" Q) @, @4 p0 h( j0 n
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. q& D6 U2 N5 m
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.( l' `$ U+ }5 N4 t; M
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in& w0 j' r* K9 j5 o
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! `6 z$ e% u% z. e( S# |
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- x; V5 c, [! y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be8 H" C& ^8 u4 c! W
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only( \3 R( [+ P @7 I: P
modestly in recent years.
) u+ A0 W$ H, h" | - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
! N- ~" _9 N# [4 b general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot1 ?% y1 k( [5 f" n/ M) G
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
% Z; J- q) ~# }; z4 z" j price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
. t, U. l" A: D& d5 E. h following two years of deterioration.
. p: k( A x3 ^ ~1 B >> |
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