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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC / Z3 d- O7 D9 c
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the; d6 T' |0 W& M7 v3 D) D% J
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive6 s8 P% ]0 T8 K v5 l
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,6 t. C/ {5 O; q6 n; N8 q9 I# H
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
" F' K5 b, D) K" t" E# G5 r "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
1 z8 I$ h" r8 D4 t& P7 Jsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
$ t+ [0 H4 Y; e# X' Fimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! N- |" d8 l8 J7 E2 ` Pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
) d$ F ]& X. ^- s# n RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is$ B- A$ }! N. [* {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,3 L0 e2 M! z' {6 m- r# W
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
$ G6 r) y" Y, Fsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.. \' `! _( |' h) b0 d" r# k* P
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the y$ I6 T; ]7 R' j# ~" B
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- B2 }7 f( L7 N! c" U$ `6 Ahome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& g7 C4 Z. ?+ `# N. _: aAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
1 L9 l6 x) k$ H! p' |' jstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and: \' f" K8 Z. s6 R3 A
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. ?, r$ u: F+ q7 R- [: Q
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
! {. d9 n9 R5 E6 x" F$ ?! vmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in% o) N3 c6 b& K1 a; X
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at$ k. ^! \4 t, L6 V$ E/ ] E
historically depressed levels.
1 z; E) C3 C- D Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 C/ }* C; Y9 `4 p3 |of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
$ d! L. x3 b2 I- x! a0 {0 p1 Lprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
% p4 w0 E9 a, Y4 H9 X' D+ f- ahands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This9 u3 {( ^) m% {- U, L4 k1 i
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# C' Y& I' k r8 Amonths ahead," added Hogue.
& u2 v- m6 y/ _4 e5 U/ ] RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
# X) Y" ^/ P* q: H: \cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
8 e( I7 z# \ S/ @8 s. F! b: U42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
& e( L# N. c& p- t- {+ i$ q4 X* J The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
- ~* ]0 h9 U9 `" _a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 o8 W" G; }& w" H7 q* n1 ?5 Ccities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% L6 x6 H/ t) p
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
" |7 K, x! r$ E. ?' t- I The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is! [+ ?! Z( z( K$ |
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property8 j' ^# s' K! @* P7 @+ o
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: f5 `9 I k' V; p2 W3 ?' }
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
. h9 \/ b1 P; ?+ d3 Ocondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
( `+ V' i2 d0 X, S5 CFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership9 |; c/ r# \& b
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
1 S6 T% g0 q5 z: b5 `$ J6 j Zper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 j$ ^1 Q+ e3 u ^, ?' a1 M V: g& b. L3 {6 m: m( Z" |- {* ]' i2 u
<<
2 ]0 z7 M; @+ Z+ `8 V7 r Highlights from across Canada:
3 i) v& _8 F" G) N& O
, w) k& v- }* f _ _3 \0 k - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
! ]2 Q2 M& m2 P7 x* S6 b intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing% M! Q* l9 S+ U$ f
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
4 _; S Q3 ?9 x' l) v8 ]5 p" A ]1 b only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track9 s! \ p7 s% [) X) ^9 a
since about the middle of 2007.; `9 R1 t5 W5 ~" d5 y) b
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
; A( a' C) [8 z0 V' c6 m2 ]* X frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to, `7 w9 e" z; T8 G$ ]
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still1 ~5 s/ P T4 C) }$ q5 J4 @
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ f6 X5 ~! W: d, ^( W0 r# a poor affordability levels.' D: o) @9 K: r+ n
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
7 q! m0 z D6 s- V vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and% }2 G0 n& \5 s8 h
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
, u- e: S: h% z- B; |8 J5 V Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to/ u. i6 y4 ~1 v" ?
minimize any downside risks.
1 O c5 R; w8 \- U( U - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( ?$ _6 c0 v9 z
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
" y" m2 U& }( V [ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early3 B! {; J R- I" L. G* M" r v
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly4 w1 U$ ~0 W: l! h; l- c
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
% \; v6 L! j3 m+ ~ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
/ z3 y$ ? u6 f, z) X/ d0 @8 L6 N Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus. ], K3 ^" V+ ~2 @4 m, G# `4 K- M
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
/ B/ I% ^: ?4 } reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
+ E9 F4 t% c9 y" K8 s W ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only; f. K2 Z& V, E: R0 C
modestly in recent years.% W* N- h, w5 K2 y/ z
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the# C* l' ~$ X; d+ H! M& @
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) I0 M: R" h7 \6 R+ Z$ r7 e spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
, N7 e2 d Q$ N i5 h price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
8 X- ?8 E/ b( k6 M following two years of deterioration.
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