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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
4 D+ G4 y3 O; l7 i- [+ B4 v# Z. V TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the8 k: l: \: E& H& M5 n# ?% I/ u$ [' H
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
' @! {- L' L ^1 {8 D1 b/ ^4 I5 Jgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,% h+ o6 r; u9 G: C& L2 ~
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.# o- u4 _* ]. H+ p' |
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
8 P+ f' ~$ Q9 Y" b* w- u$ G, msaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
- l+ e, ]+ O& Z' b+ yimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
# n* I. e$ @/ N9 N s1 B9 I- hmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."4 q* M* ~9 R3 J1 \6 l5 |, d
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
8 @$ p! W% i j$ C: k# ~! fworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
o, U) C B" H; t. mwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
% \% Y1 ~. x% L! {( Y; k8 Zsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* Y0 L; ?* |& ?7 B The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% z: b+ X4 E+ M; D1 Qproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
/ a; A0 Z5 j3 g& \! }2 Q3 Whome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.! N) l. V. A0 q+ s Y6 I9 X
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the$ i s" S! Q; r" k: ~. L* ?( A
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
7 a. x0 w0 N' F+ xthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 p* U- ~$ g/ q q According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets- X s7 w B: g: H6 ]" d
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in; n- X7 s- D1 b0 t b7 _$ R
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, M1 \5 O" B" q7 e$ P5 ~historically depressed levels.
: n7 i: ]9 ~$ K/ w8 [7 ^! D" e Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
' D% Y, s9 g/ c, _+ Fof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House7 z7 X3 y4 g, u' B3 q) r
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 o; }8 i: f2 i, q7 P( D( L5 M
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This- s. j% Z4 w4 T+ T% N1 [
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
5 S9 M7 I7 i( J. {0 V+ O6 L' Imonths ahead," added Hogue.* F, r3 @ b& m0 |% c
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, t' S$ G* `* R. [5 d) gcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary& |* \, N- _% ~2 c) o2 }/ p3 I
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
! u7 Q$ B W% b& D; i6 \) m The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
3 Y' ~, i% J2 o2 C, ?+ q8 Xa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
, A0 b0 ^; b$ R; y M7 O0 Icities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
/ T' `. m' Z0 w2 [9 htakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.1 C/ e, D0 U: C4 Q( A
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is! O+ j5 L" y) f6 h5 l! S
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
& N' c7 R3 K& obenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
' [! {+ c3 y p$ \+ ]including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
6 p q2 m8 X4 S# }3 Ncondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
# c4 F7 l: E" C& _0 rFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
0 d% w( p3 X7 G$ l$ Icosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50, Z% |4 e" N6 W( W" B& r7 H/ [: X
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
5 U2 |3 V1 h# s$ Y `4 }0 _7 p" q8 R: Y% e
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( l i1 S: O. D5 A; w& M8 T Highlights from across Canada:" ]+ G/ @, I7 k; j( G1 ^
: A& s5 Y7 c |, f! d1 U! g _ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has5 o3 B7 p- L/ m% s4 @1 K, B: c
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
( ?: N" r3 r( {% g' n7 u home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
5 g8 e( S* U, L only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 ?+ n; `" v2 |6 s% j since about the middle of 2007.
: |0 u5 R! Z4 B' M! r2 i* `5 c - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
8 Q0 T5 z; ]& P* I9 G$ N# J. f frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to) d, N) @& `: A- o$ O
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
6 ~9 s( w! Y: [' M largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 D3 w" w# A0 F [1 V7 Z N" P9 l
poor affordability levels.
2 |) \: M- K! \9 q* I$ F - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ t& A5 y+ `7 _ t vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and: r, z% G* ]* q* C1 q/ g! ?
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
! {2 n. X! b% c, w% N6 Q8 I# W6 X Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to# p/ t1 T& W& l" ?2 s
minimize any downside risks.
4 Z4 a S- T3 p$ h* Z! X) i3 r - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
) c5 ~! K. l5 ^ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
5 e/ {* t b, T8 V% D7 ]; X! G) i unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
, z$ U9 N0 R7 C 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly4 C x* c1 w/ B3 ?6 h
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
4 U& u* ~- N) l4 O' ]) I, ~" a - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
8 w; ^3 z) \, x ] Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
1 F8 J+ D/ z O( O; h5 O) ?: |! ~ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up N5 s1 m' P0 f/ m2 h. Y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be, a9 `$ {3 y: V- P) l# b1 q* K( M
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
! y6 b" u2 W! j( o7 a1 k modestly in recent years.
! @6 Z. v7 P# e0 h8 ` - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 P6 X$ A, i u9 N
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
/ K% r1 l* l. o) u. B: U0 n# }7 U spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
! P1 i& g0 {: C price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 X1 q5 h5 a% M4 n7 }9 B following two years of deterioration.: J( l! P5 _3 i
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