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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 @4 I3 P* J0 ?% c2 S: W TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 E- L+ @7 @' ]; g) W
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, m' k! z) `' s" Z9 ~' l
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,# U8 U) q8 ]: ~, T' `- Q
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
% ~3 `/ g4 D Z# o "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 S- @& n( V* V/ r& asaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
+ g& w* g: s8 w9 M/ w$ ^improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability( ^+ m. Z; q' {) x; c7 s" n
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
^9 H1 l# ^% }# g RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is) `. V/ ?/ L6 [
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 h3 f) a& B5 j# Uwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have7 |7 y* S2 S( I$ o
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.. n+ P; f ~/ z) ^% V& X7 L
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
! T, o. `, Y* q7 U% Gproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a- L" @8 _. B. f! P L6 @$ O
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008. z! q& ? o: J/ @* M5 @
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
: q+ I4 {) v0 Vstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
7 v2 a) V) T: cthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 l5 N. A3 a3 J1 u& e- {# N6 x
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
- S }& d# I. Jmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in5 q& \- m- G9 V* {
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at9 h: o. P# M8 H# n- _8 O7 u
historically depressed levels.
! \+ l3 a' V7 n% v- F: j+ G Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost# t7 F3 d5 i, J; G
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& M. ^0 _& @' u; S. V- N
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
* X" W6 Y" c) }4 \1 Z# rhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- v) {0 k- {& j4 I9 R7 ?& N, }enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, K; K4 E/ t5 g0 Emonths ahead," added Hogue.
1 n# d( C% P- }0 d RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
8 u- @5 V8 m2 \1 p; Tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary. u9 x5 }0 y9 X9 _4 ?$ y4 r
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
% H' `3 B: s1 Y" K; A The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for, x% x+ |5 ?1 K3 Z8 g" r9 V. b
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 G, K& q, u5 bcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
) n+ K9 t3 f# X; W. Ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
" _" h- R- G( ~) S- S2 K% b The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
& G, H( Y: G8 j/ A/ Ebased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
6 E+ v" U1 m& Mbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
/ r9 ]1 d$ w# a8 ?. ^* U9 ?8 Dincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
9 x. R7 N+ r3 H/ }; C: ]' \condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) s9 L6 `* T5 }, ?For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership& N* N; J6 L9 c" a
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ s0 A: \4 e; [2 l3 a
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 v) B. k; ?9 g6 W$ S
! v6 _' C$ L; @' S! R8 V$ } <<
6 {# v! X& l: W# v* |! x Highlights from across Canada:
- Q$ j* E' R/ x6 d6 J8 q: ^( N3 A- w) r2 v- K4 V( f
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
v& W3 v% Y1 z/ J4 i% A1 \ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing g( S' V) i7 l! f0 @7 f. ?" U6 w/ M
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
; \2 V$ U( I( f only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
8 b% `2 s- r& c1 T, L/ K since about the middle of 2007.. A9 p+ S/ r; L# Y3 q* f
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
+ \& ]3 S+ ]0 s$ u z8 x# w" J frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to l/ t7 i6 d2 n, y5 C: r
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 m/ Q6 h5 B" s* O, ]5 z largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
5 s! ]+ A* @- K( V, l2 ~ poor affordability levels.% k0 {2 G$ P( V0 T0 z2 a
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
3 d2 ^# n# H' e e vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and! b5 L7 V, R1 c7 w. `" N
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.# T) m. k3 ^ q k
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
% z( H/ J9 Z: [: P- }( i2 ? minimize any downside risks.- ^: T' A+ k% x: ?
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market% D" u/ Q# z- [* t6 }( s3 u
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ v& Y; e. S+ ]2 [: r, t, e
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ J' m7 K) @5 B( C, u 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly4 N0 u4 g* C! T7 s0 m, |9 O( r$ R; }, }* }
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
1 p8 K# D. W2 ^. d3 N - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in" n6 M d6 x* j* w! n
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
$ f2 e4 P1 G$ T far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
7 p' B% L1 f5 I; ~, H reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be. }8 g- H5 A$ B9 m
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
1 ~+ n5 A0 \% i& o) l3 M modestly in recent years.
- k3 P1 t9 D/ l- W' s \ D# o* | - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the( ?- v9 ~2 ^; f2 a
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
; \1 c. y, J& U* M8 @ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
5 h2 \3 s$ Y6 |% z& K' ]2 `# x( j price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
. Y/ X9 K2 L9 ?+ x7 f following two years of deterioration." b8 g/ Y6 g$ J" \& b0 W% H. Z+ z
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