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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; L" L; @; ~& M- z1 L TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
: _( V' x" ^ E3 ^" u. W2 mmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
( Z9 ^% p8 {5 l( _) C" Z) Rgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
4 K7 Q! h, B4 L3 x' vaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.. {" A5 U6 \0 Z
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"0 V1 }* H/ ~& @. {
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
1 i$ O% a: K! j bimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability! [! R: f5 g; x+ r
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
- ^' Y$ K e$ H1 I4 c4 n8 H) Y RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is6 T) T3 ]' Y$ @9 ^2 O; n
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,; B& ]; | ?7 W/ [" n
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have3 P d* k8 n9 }6 k0 I2 P: r6 h& ~
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
7 m6 e& J. l; }9 r/ @ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
. ^) h$ M8 r( N9 \proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
/ _; z8 t! M; g. dhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% W- X1 ]. E% C' }6 l
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 s( Q- W0 k( dstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and$ u1 g9 q# G4 ]2 @. v& Z: p0 ~
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.+ N, o4 A0 s( Q+ C% r. q8 ]" b
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
7 ]. N( F9 S+ V; w) K- Q7 }' ?may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
" v% h' v" y8 Y3 S/ `the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 o8 o% k( _! z, E+ b4 Khistorically depressed levels.
! ]9 S4 ]2 d' q1 _7 b Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost! G/ B5 S n1 f9 P% O
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House5 v: k7 l+ x! M2 ~% U
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
2 Q' k4 ~! c. s0 t8 k' n, X5 U! Uhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This( M0 m7 { S* U% k& I' D' K" B
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
' j) Z3 Y4 Y. _! `' ? I; G9 Omonths ahead," added Hogue.
5 S$ |; n# E9 Z RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
' l, g; F2 O5 W' V" P( Q# l, scities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
# g# m+ T: ?: e, s5 @) Q& ]42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.8 R: H( q. u: V) K
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 T C, U! D, {! G0 K6 D( R
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
% `5 _1 {. y) [( C% S5 qcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only) W; |$ B- \$ \: y$ n
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
7 Q+ z, w# i, z& L8 m The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is) {/ C' K$ K( V, H/ P q9 U
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
+ v6 F( Q, p" ` t; zbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# ?$ z5 I* M) M# o% L2 s
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard7 n# \6 q- [" ~1 D1 j
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.8 {: S8 w( V9 a6 [. n4 K: E+ U
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! B3 J5 \) \, n4 X; p1 z
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50* p- j/ O8 L" Q; z) m& u
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 |4 \1 h8 h; E2 C2 X6 O3 [$ l% i! H8 h1 X* f( j. z, ^" u
<<+ q2 s; k8 b% }& Y5 ?0 c2 x2 ?6 n
Highlights from across Canada:5 W. B4 W6 X1 G1 J+ a
1 ^( a1 J# e' s$ E6 a" Q* B' I* { - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) t3 C7 m- ]( m+ D. R, W5 |; X
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing/ T5 P+ t( x! l: g- @( w! B' U# o# N
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound, M* N0 u9 ~! z
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track& T0 M7 A& j2 c2 X9 t5 T
since about the middle of 2007.8 G" B( O# l4 I3 ~$ J$ \
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& [6 ]/ t0 h6 {& K( G: O1 m
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
5 j, {$ C7 L6 U. T9 f8 C decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 x; `. O2 @" `# c* d: v( l; ]+ o. w' R largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
7 k+ w) f- b+ B poor affordability levels.
5 x) S) j: {& r - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the' V" B% Z5 G. P6 `2 s! F
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and" w, q( ?4 @: Z5 c( }
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ [# j4 Z- n& u% o Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to/ z3 _) K t; N M) h
minimize any downside risks.) f- D/ K: i# r( [ g) ]" ]
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
2 a# f ?* o( b conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, E3 u' @/ }2 W, s/ v( |' c& m unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
5 r3 n' d+ P( k3 S! i! { 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
3 f0 @8 s/ A, H" k: L# K4 t being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
. p$ R; u- o [0 @8 b1 @ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in7 c3 q! ~7 M5 c8 L) O+ ]% ] f
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus- V d% o% E0 d9 c1 o
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up7 e/ i4 w7 Q* Y4 j- `. S0 `
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be- Y/ M, b( @# N& p U2 l, l
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only: a' O6 b* H& p" Q: t0 Z3 }/ @
modestly in recent years.
6 e% Y4 s. D" L/ v9 K) ~3 n* F! L/ R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the0 i, I3 a, z2 Z }) m! ]. F
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot1 {) V% {7 V' k$ Y" A8 @
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. d6 D5 c/ {9 T6 z; { price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! d/ w1 {- |/ Z0 k2 i
following two years of deterioration.
- Z O* W% D- w& [ ^5 p- \ >> |
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