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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
& t+ ?4 U7 _9 l TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
f a1 P" C' Y* E" ~$ P( M* L2 Bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive4 M( U m% r* M8 u
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
. C0 |+ M6 p; Q P9 Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
/ \- c& V; T$ z/ R9 V* K "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,") Y& B; g3 ]7 h! |: O- A! v3 j
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is) M5 M9 i: Z' i5 u5 \
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
- b; @( k2 {3 u4 J1 D8 bmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.": Z* q" g2 `5 K/ b7 W1 |
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is1 ^' Y4 g a( T: h! m. X/ y
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,' q2 x7 E" h# d0 S& z3 ~, q0 O$ y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
$ w! ]8 X- K" W+ msustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
$ n, r# j: p( ]& {: j5 r& M# g1 y5 m The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the) t( [/ u$ } J5 Y
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
1 V4 K& H. a: D5 U0 n$ Ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008., E$ J/ ?( e3 `8 N5 h) z- W( ]8 z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
0 a- a8 c/ ]# {5 U6 nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
8 u& U1 q6 d( L% U# ^the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* z+ Y0 V# F+ y+ V According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) E7 ^/ e! C8 E! ?% F) e
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
8 y# m- o1 e ^0 I7 [6 Vthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
! }! o* I2 z- X! zhistorically depressed levels. O: T) {9 P. k# h* f7 Y
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 k7 k3 ~! u& ~: v I
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
" `5 }7 @, P5 n, X* J( ~2 bprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
; W/ u" I4 f) y Y9 N9 x$ u4 Whands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This- ]) a" {1 P1 p0 r
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the8 U K( v, ~+ g" L5 a4 ^# ~
months ahead," added Hogue.: L( t; Y( u( N5 y2 \
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
% y3 z; Z/ B% u. f. pcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
3 M9 q! {- C+ \* N42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ h9 e* X v% J: z0 F$ ?
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for& D; [: t4 @2 C, |! D
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these1 t" _& I! U1 Y) Z
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, V" b% L r6 G0 e$ l* R+ Wtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
0 }% G6 E2 k: k% Z% z7 Z- y5 i& r The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
8 [8 _' c! ~( N" G% Xbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property4 y/ ~% a9 V: N! `7 o( B
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented" q5 @0 M1 e( n* N% }, W
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
: K: |, s# o+ K! d; icondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 t+ J( s* O) s) tFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership, M7 u5 Q$ m7 k# `( ~9 q% C2 u# U
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50+ p& l) a# a% M: ~ }9 ], j
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
6 l( c' W( h* `0 U; Y3 Q) o4 I/ U" E1 _/ k# v/ k3 q
<<( R. ]3 x1 L. `8 X! y% g9 }0 p9 n
Highlights from across Canada:
9 n/ {' T; O* w0 t! e# X- x
; t: V& V( d; c9 h - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
) ~( ^7 B% i+ a& V* w intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing' q; w' f. g) i e- C( s. Q
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound) C N' B5 E9 ^+ O4 C
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track* Z; f* d g/ n
since about the middle of 2007.
b9 b: h( c0 S - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
! d5 {1 E& ]% n6 B! C- e' g frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 w- z+ q e9 O8 f
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
" z! W2 a0 {: ^; E ?2 {0 Z largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
4 a I& ]8 ]% T/ m poor affordability levels.8 \ E- D- H6 t' z9 |
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" ^7 W+ q4 r7 C' N5 I
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and J& H5 q$ @* D1 o" k
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.7 T- ~! y3 e/ Y* n$ Q: e
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
8 P& p, q* D+ i& T minimize any downside risks.- Q. l" k+ ?- Q( \
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market* D+ W9 {! a0 }. z, V4 A6 p0 ]/ _3 P8 w7 f
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is0 ^. h9 S& g+ h. a( O! E* ]
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early# C. \* j8 e! g; X4 _5 E& k8 j
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) T- ]6 \5 W1 L
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
5 V! ?: y! m# n) f/ F1 w0 M - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in- C3 X/ o: y- B# {
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 X0 H" |/ X3 t( t8 k) u
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up& I" Z1 b f# m7 Y f
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
& f, {- ?$ |$ r; u) e ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, X! w0 B3 c! ?& Y modestly in recent years.$ d, |. T/ P8 U/ {* Z; V4 J
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
# B3 m" s9 I; p4 a8 o5 R general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot7 s0 r1 ^( x! e# q3 E
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
% k( `% U" [/ f+ B price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability& p! p9 G2 I4 u. h1 [; l
following two years of deterioration.$ l4 l5 n) ^ K' ^$ x, t/ ^5 @5 e
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