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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 o4 V* k+ ~' `/ w6 j) ]$ `. k
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the. c6 J- \4 \5 ^: _$ a) s4 _8 T
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
1 A* m, d& ]3 _6 q% rgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,, f/ o/ ]8 f% Z$ Z% w3 U+ {. t
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." d: K! [( f3 r, H! }
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' H3 _1 s" G. h, Q8 ^; [said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is+ b0 d* V N& k4 f2 {% X9 G. |
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 @- O# h( h& d7 R( m6 x2 M
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
* b7 M2 {# w& h! V! M4 b RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ S W$ q' |* t! l* V Z
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
2 x: ?3 h2 ~9 {& C/ Pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
8 k, ?' G' Y0 k, h0 T& J5 }sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) e0 h2 N' G) r The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
# ~6 C: q' p" A1 Xproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
! a6 Y X' \3 b; C. x' chome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
1 H+ T9 y* E# c# wAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
6 D' Z/ W9 U9 o* o" T0 Qstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
. [- ?0 H' d% x% Uthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
& X4 I1 L/ M* N" O+ k+ r According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets, O0 G2 b! W4 t& S
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in; `0 l# j9 a0 M' L2 W2 D* ~, K
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
# @; e, X' _1 K, F* |$ k, I0 d8 {historically depressed levels.. ^% w$ M" j" s! W3 ~7 X
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost2 P I; J9 |" h) [" K
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
8 }3 K7 Q' ^ I& Oprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# ]# n. E3 G/ ^3 i
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This* }7 i( p0 A. i8 p
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the5 @4 _; \# A5 | b# m9 Q$ U
months ahead," added Hogue.5 ^2 ?1 ~8 P$ L3 i9 I: F
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 Q# k# X5 |8 q0 h7 v
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 y! I; `+ s3 y) D5 X4 s
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
' {; g! {1 w; U; C: }$ s The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
7 Y+ `; w% m" Y8 E& G7 R5 b0 H2 q. T+ va broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
0 H9 y8 K$ ]) P. _! [# xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
5 l% R$ u* R z2 `takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
8 d% E: Y" ^7 W/ P' m4 E The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
( N5 J( ~) G3 mbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property0 P# `) {& y5 ^! d/ _' M
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
$ t* n/ I' n0 a7 X+ Z7 Rincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard9 K. [! j# u5 H$ K( R* o
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.& M# d8 z" a. D9 _; R: s4 s1 {% k
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership5 M7 t( a! d5 p1 d/ b1 g: P; u
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 j4 s8 Q5 @; W
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
; M* t6 N$ p4 [& d y5 L# W5 _8 I: v4 s. Z
<<
5 v0 C* b5 q6 V5 m# A! M, X( S* d Highlights from across Canada:1 w" I% G( j( B9 r9 A
" p& n3 x: f* s- m2 }: ]4 @* s4 m( c
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has. X0 y& j& z B* S8 N
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ H; w' s* @6 I# H' d home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound4 R/ w& a- C! }9 }2 j/ e8 T2 L
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
6 B4 f, ?$ T5 d* d T since about the middle of 2007., m1 `2 Q ?4 r
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
9 ^: b7 Z" [% T1 X2 g; u" W6 h frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 h1 P) w1 W7 W) c3 p6 }
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 B( v+ z6 u+ W: ^8 Z! \
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
& B! f! G( r8 s poor affordability levels.& G% \7 ~2 j1 ~8 |" [7 o
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
8 R) j: S9 i* g# q. A vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
3 v" q( y% r: h- u7 z6 k prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.( z) N, V, q$ j" {
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. z2 P1 Y/ A$ ^) u. }4 w6 A minimize any downside risks.
' e1 @' S% e1 w* {' J - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! C( X, A+ m C' y8 Y! \4 C
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
! e$ W( i0 k; g8 v+ [8 u unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
1 v/ b3 n; }0 ]+ l 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
! m* U, r9 O2 y. j$ ]) W being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.9 f, U5 H \& W! Z, E0 H& ~$ R0 y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! @/ F) ~: S$ Y; ^- p9 c8 T0 | Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
# L- r; y* ]7 V A4 V" c! C( `1 P far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up4 x# m# Y9 U; k' [
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be/ I7 `" b' M7 Y1 ]+ z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only5 l' y) t- Q: n+ I u
modestly in recent years.
9 U$ S' [* H% |5 n+ d# B0 B - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) z: n8 p( o* w- ~& t K
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot3 r. D' u, k3 ?7 y! r* y6 U
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward, N& L5 \% b. Z( L1 K
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
) X9 O$ m$ L3 f0 f" [1 M/ _4 C4 | following two years of deterioration.
8 l/ Z4 P) q ~! t' u3 H >> |
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