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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
) F$ R* G' p2 i9 `3 n p TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
3 D4 A5 Q, u. D1 M7 R- kmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# A* |9 h& S: w: A* Y7 u" Y8 q9 X
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
9 X8 |- ?% K0 @( G1 z+ t' n% O# a3 Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 X, v* s3 j* } "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"0 ^- o/ ]$ o/ S; J' S& }1 `* w
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 }/ U8 U2 |- `+ ~2 B8 c( D; g `improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! L5 w' {: Z( v: B: {6 C! |! I1 }measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 j) d* W/ N+ y1 t }' I6 | RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is* q/ M5 J4 D j7 V% p' F# f
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,) P% D- n3 m% D( g8 N3 C" P
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have) ]) \; v- f+ J; {1 ?: p3 r1 ]$ M
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.4 I5 X( u# U' f- G. v; g
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the* w Q" `: E6 X1 Z8 }
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
1 C5 S; k8 k, dhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.4 h! V+ ]1 m, e
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' I1 h% X& H0 s2 w& q! xstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
6 s+ L) j$ S% F' v3 Dthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
# a$ `- `3 g O9 W8 f; H% R According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets9 O, T$ s; M7 n- X( \
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in9 \. f* X N' m& _" @, |
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at5 ?3 P( P& E$ m8 K6 t+ v% ?
historically depressed levels.9 W: c, k1 y2 M: T! O* \- T W
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 E7 ]% \5 n2 o; _' w8 _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House$ l/ ^8 c. l/ H/ Z# m' A# I
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
4 ]# d6 [' M$ ~9 u" r& ?hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 T; R9 ?( X/ B p& ]enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
; v! \: N9 J3 h6 k7 k4 rmonths ahead," added Hogue.6 p* X5 Y/ z7 ^9 P: W' n( L f
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest9 ]$ g5 }, L9 M# |! \
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" R8 v' D- A9 {5 i* t
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- p }4 R6 u% ] The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
1 m' H+ }8 o( `3 E1 La broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these+ ], t l5 Y1 a! r# z0 d8 e
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only" u: |$ c7 m9 @3 L' r
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
1 x+ H$ `& f' i( N# l The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 r0 ~# ?0 B3 \* i2 B9 H# U
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
, F7 K3 f5 ?0 S6 N- z9 @3 t5 obenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
( W" Y; `8 |, j S% aincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 o7 x1 j: {- P1 d& I- a$ P
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.3 K s- W* d/ j2 b0 z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership, Q8 |2 y- U" M# l
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
! Z& y+ z! a+ R7 D+ fper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.& a# j$ a+ w+ `
0 v G6 y) s3 X& Y, \
<<
/ f" W2 v. b) w! K9 n8 r Highlights from across Canada:
% Q$ s; V6 R/ ?; ~# X, p- i4 R, h8 g2 x7 V9 D
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
0 T. |/ p b5 I1 ?! J. J+ j. H intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
5 ~" Z( \4 G0 T4 P+ u; S home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound5 O" s* z9 g. S1 J% B$ _' y
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track" ~% J8 |7 y+ F5 e8 ^" B' W+ b0 w7 P" P
since about the middle of 2007.
" o( e5 Q2 Y7 ` F6 [ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
2 c; F! L9 f/ x! ]& a frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
- o6 y5 d1 [; r. W6 K* P decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still2 o- u: j# g9 I, D, ?9 N, m
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 P3 [( J+ h0 j. n% o poor affordability levels.' z8 R4 z1 ? l
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the( Q2 j& m+ T- l* [5 K1 S5 Q* p2 r2 d
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and% J/ r. S$ u4 v, d5 I6 k5 H
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.: B; L8 R8 f$ \. a
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 b" X: f; ^' `4 s
minimize any downside risks.. Q( I! A1 \) M: U6 H
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
" m. C; r5 i) q* L2 g5 A: Q6 V conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
4 ]9 e# G0 S* W' _0 Z0 {; j unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, p9 z& b9 f: e# l
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly4 O. x% F+ F: t6 L/ ?
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
& t, g7 m5 a$ ?" l; u - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in3 H- P5 n) o$ f5 {" k! j7 S" K
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' T3 W1 t1 ?9 ~9 j
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 f( c9 g3 T3 Z( z' z) @' I reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
4 B! Z1 Q' C/ _ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 N, C/ X; z3 }2 W" G2 A8 h% I5 Y" @ modestly in recent years.
8 ?, @) K! [# V0 s, k F0 a - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the; F5 ^& A, E% Q( V, v/ V: c6 E
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) m6 j* x, K* [ S6 k: }0 n spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward' ]3 n7 \( y( u- Z. h
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
* J! o2 R6 [' P7 ]5 c following two years of deterioration.
) o+ n3 i8 E0 V; C- o >> |
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