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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 Z8 j A1 ~% m" l& P
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' I9 U r+ ]: ?
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
1 g9 Q& y: W7 s7 ngains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,' r. _; g5 c+ E+ V( D/ J
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.3 A( w3 h2 P, _+ }, o6 N
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"* g: M7 z* m" p5 k5 B
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
( a# P9 W5 T& Z" P+ Q! vimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& W" O" s* o7 nmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."5 a( s7 f; U% l* @4 U
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 z c) e' g+ G
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,4 W5 H/ Q, I1 M& A1 Z0 i) S$ s
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have+ c. }' |' U0 C7 S- X; I; `9 ]% A
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
3 L2 C' o* }* G+ i8 K1 m& Z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( ~/ R9 u! N+ l; h g, Vproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. O7 f; ]& J. |( c, g8 n c* r& _! bhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
/ w4 k/ S& R& ~1 E$ T& ~2 bAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the3 A' ?2 z: Y# X
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and9 g! O8 m. o8 ]# x9 s4 C' x
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
+ M+ f, L4 n# e. U: r* j According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: P- Q/ r- v: T$ J: @1 o) k
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 z4 k* a1 I% N) _the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 [) W% } |% F- T- {# nhistorically depressed levels.3 ^) [. @: k* Y% P: z/ t
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
6 q' o; k# [) }2 }of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House5 v i) M/ e3 o) E" P4 e7 @9 x
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
2 o4 _, `5 `% ^( \6 j# C7 L' x8 _) thands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This* E% O) v0 }5 P5 s9 E i: M
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the/ Y" |) V6 n2 {0 P M
months ahead," added Hogue.& g$ c; j0 K/ B' s' x& R( |
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
# V& B/ n5 |* ^0 Lcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
3 ^5 [& d/ M9 B4 ]3 x42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- z' d3 C) P: L! Z3 S The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
* O& v1 I [9 c7 Y2 Q1 a2 @a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
, d8 r- ?' d8 k# a0 N5 ncities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
& g4 g7 {) `9 Ptakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
% g7 s8 {! [' [8 J4 b, L" W5 x The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is2 z a5 S! b. e5 g* g
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
4 e- U j' c& {/ a! E3 Q; ]/ ?/ ]+ ~; ^1 wbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
9 L l" Y% A7 Xincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 _3 P7 |; l: N+ a5 Mcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.3 f1 p* L' s6 v8 R5 A ^+ `
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
; ~, o, W8 [/ Q4 Bcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
8 ^* h, |! r* k6 K. Xper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
U3 T% k( d8 s% `- F1 O5 m1 F" k: x- p F3 a) z' D' k5 s
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7 Z: H' Z+ Z9 ^ f( m5 w6 Z Highlights from across Canada:8 n+ |' N8 }; O: ]. @
* E1 S* X7 H& j& ] s) B
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
( I; R+ ]$ ?) M# h2 m intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
( d) y8 Y" {+ ? home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound5 N" [" B" z! N) J
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
& N& Y+ [) W3 g5 w; X( u8 Q0 j since about the middle of 2007.
* j" M( f0 ~6 c o - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" m0 O/ c* p' ?) l3 T- s frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
/ F, b1 w' k6 f& ?; ~3 g3 u decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
; v5 F$ c1 P2 w; `3 l largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely' x0 G+ D' M) L$ j
poor affordability levels.
[$ }4 Z+ y C: A4 E. I - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" c2 L3 S* j+ k" H# U& `
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
( F* U! _% C+ s, t7 | prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.2 X5 |0 u7 F& j+ O( Y/ s2 ]
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
3 G d+ x0 p9 c0 a1 i minimize any downside risks.. L2 @: w1 L: e( E# n+ Y! A# u
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
2 @7 J/ o, V/ O- p conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is% ]* x- S- u4 A* V X* X; {
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early. [$ m i3 x% y4 x+ b* [$ ~8 I
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
. M6 f7 @0 f9 I# `6 u being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.- f1 p/ P, R, {. l H
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
8 e$ J+ N8 h" N4 e# d# f" i3 D0 Y Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
0 ^9 d& I/ o# A0 d: I far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* F8 ~( e! S- v" {; ~/ U7 q
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be2 v* O8 ?: Q# ]# z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
2 C% }0 i" f$ y k3 h |# v1 Z modestly in recent years.- S. h( F- B3 ~9 ~7 ~! W0 V! f) P
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
4 ?4 A N# x1 V0 E general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot+ ]) k e$ a! }) h! o( p
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward0 b" s# k0 w6 P# [. A
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability( A$ A* a! D" \
following two years of deterioration.) N% S* a$ S1 }0 @ c7 H" Y3 T2 w
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