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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC h: F8 T4 V( Y% w" I* N! J2 M
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the# }& g$ ?% j0 |' u9 D+ z
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
' b4 c1 k3 H- L3 n4 Jgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,) i6 g/ D$ [- G; A9 Z2 j- X
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.; ~ G( h5 w8 ]' @: _
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"4 k4 V- v- B% D8 J! F5 n
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
M; |: q: w5 _6 u, V& }% }improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability" U6 ~) o5 F4 B9 h
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
7 v$ N7 w5 O( a" W: c1 z RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* {8 ?* p& z) Y+ D4 Uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
7 G8 D1 R9 r6 U/ A( W! W+ n$ swhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
& \ K- T5 I. v4 j r# w9 `sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.3 b; B9 k" b( H: x
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the) V) O8 j- L8 r4 y0 P
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
! M- R+ j h8 o) d4 Z Hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.' X2 f% U$ r( |0 [2 z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
2 E- `) ~% {6 s" o) D# kstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and5 s' G8 o! `, N% P R
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
a Y+ X; L, W" i According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
) t, B$ n0 Q/ wmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in' e }- l6 T+ d9 n1 a2 C) U. {
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at. a+ c' E2 O# j4 {; U
historically depressed levels.7 g2 n* M* C& }4 W& U
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
) j, k& r7 `6 }of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 s: ?8 H9 B* K# M5 i( R( Hprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the2 h0 i. X, w" v" N" O& X: |
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This4 `: e2 j9 h0 C8 R a
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
l9 `) {& a9 \6 C% N. _months ahead," added Hogue.
; |1 n+ ]4 p# F: K RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
: c3 z/ y$ e! L% wcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
4 a: a' D- k1 v0 _1 w9 C) ^42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
1 @' q" X2 Y1 z, j! @. B( U: ] The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* }7 I* f# P$ t9 k% j$ `
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 D1 b+ V6 x% rcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only* }4 _) C5 Z( r+ K: }
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.$ ~, e( o* t: z3 ]' O6 z
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is2 y7 F4 u2 L- |! o- U
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ T7 j8 `3 r3 P) ?7 X- R4 x
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented, o2 Y# f2 p" P9 ?
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 n5 [+ a( Z' ]& T+ q( [ Kcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.% y7 m2 J* ~; |* N. e
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
! s- Y: @4 J0 _/ T" Ecosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50; p" [: I6 L, _1 c
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
: j2 k! P: P, y" u0 r+ G3 c! Z4 ]( b; P; h& B5 {/ T8 S
<<
( i) [6 q8 }& o% {" |9 I Highlights from across Canada:% G4 Q, j. N3 {9 n4 J2 ?
9 N: P& t7 w: ]
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has5 r0 d. n8 V5 n/ o& P5 D
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( R! a( _1 Q- W& y x
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound C$ s4 \; C8 X' \8 y* y4 p# e% f4 i& P
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
1 ^$ q/ o: L9 J: H% @, j5 R since about the middle of 2007.
; G7 c# e# a) W$ O/ r& ]& N - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the0 S# t* S8 N* } K! ^( `1 {/ N
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 e+ S9 M! }9 l1 C: v
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
( L, P3 n- J4 ^; R; v largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: P7 o9 o; k( |: z4 u poor affordability levels.
+ A# y7 @$ F9 y" n - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the9 m1 M$ k5 R, j1 k
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ E3 [) j' K2 [) `: \0 _ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.; f. o" G) |: i' Z* S+ J! u
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to" y/ Z' Z3 O$ J. N/ I
minimize any downside risks.
1 ` y+ N% b) x. s) a - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market6 I: `; v" l& j
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is' V& u/ B) V. n$ ^4 A4 D" R9 X1 K
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early/ \' J3 X9 p+ m. ~7 @+ q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly( X2 L; S* W3 T; Q# A) ~
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
6 @7 b9 K8 z; t t+ [) j/ { - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in! G. g' y. V$ Y. `& s6 I" N( J- a
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 ^6 i8 I# [2 h8 C. F- [, L% s
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up# y5 _) H! d2 N3 R/ j
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
' X" C3 m5 W K3 b( I- v ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 {1 @( [! l7 H2 t modestly in recent years.2 p* M4 T, m; D+ t6 [ C
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the2 R6 t8 I! O. B) r2 t
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot9 ~6 k4 D8 x5 P# q+ s
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward* W0 g3 F3 F1 f& {/ A0 o
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability6 \6 u. \: \( R, n$ ^# H& N m+ E
following two years of deterioration.
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