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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 9 e* ?9 [) s; M) ^2 A
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 L( s/ E( C( X9 F8 K
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
2 @ l9 S/ @: Ugains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
+ l7 ?# X0 c8 [according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.3 ~) r# L% I6 M4 h: U! x
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
x4 X5 g7 G4 k6 Isaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
+ |! O5 T: B& R/ f6 p* X [improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) w& V9 T5 G3 m; ?( P& f/ c, N+ M
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# L+ t2 O% A: ^4 T* k0 t
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
- o0 m0 n% H, l9 zworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: ^; g* N, g/ r: G( [( y9 c( Twhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have3 K6 b/ }' T3 |1 ?% S6 B; E4 ^
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.# n& `2 ?* f! [7 B% P
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the$ l5 Y g% o3 I5 c/ c, e8 ]" `
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- F: Y! B6 i, u- y m, Ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
* C+ n7 d, [$ ?/ R+ r8 Y- Y3 tAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
- F, U. I/ f& b8 mstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
: R- F3 T6 m4 D4 ?- ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.0 H2 s; \5 r6 x, r0 q# E' d
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) ^& W9 u1 f1 n0 S9 R
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
0 P ]( n. P' H: l/ Othe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 u2 Q% }! b; Thistorically depressed levels.
! ]6 v9 b) ?$ C Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost4 V2 K2 N; g$ ?
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
1 d, t7 n9 c* P( Aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
! |; G, c8 N/ w" S. phands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This5 K: P3 `$ j- F% b
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the5 t; H- ]' N- ?1 C% ?6 p4 i0 {2 \' y
months ahead," added Hogue.
/ d% l: I J4 c! b; W+ _ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest# ~! a* K1 F: R6 m2 {/ q; `. N
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary( F0 t: I5 Q) s! c' H+ ~ H
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.8 {/ p+ c) N; x8 F- y% \
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
! j. {8 j$ Z6 B0 {( Z! _a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these8 }/ Z: \3 `8 o5 P: Y2 |2 ^
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only: M G P2 x& c. N+ X P
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& h& L f; \3 i) C3 w( }+ L- R
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 E) v$ t7 x5 Y T9 V6 T' h
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
. p4 D, h% p0 m; R/ Ibenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: b6 _4 |1 h6 v" O: \ C' A
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
% _! s+ K+ J& F- }2 `3 kcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.4 a3 f/ ?. w/ ?, {; C2 h5 l* s
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership8 w- U& ]4 W: u- B" a: {! L* F z8 u
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 500 W3 x, p0 @; k! Z/ N
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.4 k4 r* Y7 y( q+ K0 y
4 I: J2 ^$ ~0 w$ ~% c3 _ <<" P2 m: _6 {* J& e+ u
Highlights from across Canada:
' N& X2 \5 o3 W1 Y
' T' B% y- p: q x4 P. W - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
0 a3 o5 g2 E" Y. h' N$ @ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
. S" N6 a; A8 `% g1 ^ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound8 B8 O$ I9 h/ F0 t. X+ h" d; `
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track. T1 X* X/ M0 E0 |) j. j- @& |
since about the middle of 2007.1 X* a8 N0 `2 ]$ l+ T# \; o
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
$ u4 o( f! V; O/ n5 A7 ?& ^' |* p3 G frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# K; k. i5 A9 s
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* m: O7 c5 b0 a' r, r8 V
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely8 \2 ~' u. \2 Q0 |7 i
poor affordability levels.
& ~7 y" O6 a+ X7 n2 o! | - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the0 F7 [, e5 P* r% O- J. ^5 ]. S
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and& ]$ ^. |5 g/ s! R
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.: C, O' L# T ~7 Z3 F7 s
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to b/ l; T0 t/ a& Y% d7 \+ a# R
minimize any downside risks.
( L0 C% j, a. ^$ L8 C - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market8 i/ s( s! N0 w; I
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is" W! S4 n$ ?2 x" ~0 V* [
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early7 h0 H& {6 {! j$ ~7 K
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
; e& y) g8 E% _# A, q8 Y8 v being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
, ?9 c, y: N! |6 v. r/ H4 ?6 w - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in2 F' L1 v0 _" z/ D% ~0 X3 t0 \
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 v) J7 {0 i2 e" T far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up2 \1 D) C2 v" V3 ]' F% M( D
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
+ o. `: F6 F% n ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
& s# U9 i1 T( I# y. G& A+ N6 k( [% w7 P modestly in recent years.8 {0 O1 F. f4 A* u2 ?0 T
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
# w2 ^3 C6 {: t0 l K, [; t* \ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ r2 [! _- [) r+ D( d; Q spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
& r9 w) y. }- J9 v9 K$ O price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
% \' i# p4 y: N9 n/ y9 T following two years of deterioration.- s0 d; E B' S' K. M) f* F
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