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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC " c. G0 k. _* o
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
7 T4 \! a% J2 E, d7 smiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
% x, M7 j% u ? s& W/ rgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* ] X' r/ {1 `+ O- X+ v/ eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 q, D6 F0 k4 @" [
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
4 V. s8 K& U! h% x; ]" psaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is8 S' C" ^# y' f A8 G' c! b
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
* G t# Q6 Y- A( _% @! m$ Imeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."& O P: M) k2 q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is ?/ p) a) z+ D- o% `* ]
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,0 V* V( y1 }$ D1 y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have' a" j5 u. W* {7 v
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% D: E+ u9 {' A The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& {$ E$ J2 _ I* w7 i
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a6 n/ e+ N1 K! Q' a# B
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 c, w9 |0 Q! g: A' M
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 d8 @8 M% P; C% h8 x i, I6 `
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and/ o) y0 A# t' F7 u5 `! s1 ]
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
) i' {% Y! i; w% I According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
6 D( j2 q5 m7 A. y I* }may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in, A) t ~0 Y1 U6 N% e
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
% ]8 Q, k- S! z3 ~# y( W# `& t6 zhistorically depressed levels.+ W8 h N0 ^8 ~, v
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
8 v/ v& h6 d5 J: V9 R0 _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
, @- l6 n% t2 uprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the. J3 v8 [- ~1 j1 F: t. V9 k& b
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
+ F) v9 Y7 C9 u& r+ `enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
6 n0 x5 g$ B* @) M( qmonths ahead," added Hogue.
) ~6 D4 R$ |$ I# Y) l. | RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest+ L5 R- k. {7 P \. e5 B7 Z4 n3 a
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
1 i* w3 {+ }# C! }, a0 V. t% C42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
' L. u5 ?. z( z' b The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ D, p1 f$ W6 ^1 D) da broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these$ \3 H" l+ \3 ?8 y) k( _! S/ O
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only) d2 p2 }" A; T) O9 r6 B7 x' W4 e, _
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account. F6 E+ h' ]( L6 W6 W2 U
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' I! z2 R6 T( N% t, @$ j6 E1 ebased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ i, r7 r& m. m9 v5 `
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# B/ C+ ? p1 T
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( a9 Y& Q5 f, |! { x2 b$ n, M
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home." a. H; {( z" T/ N+ y& y& n* y
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership9 E8 _ p2 [" ?0 b' F% }0 ^; Y
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
9 y7 }* j" T. N- g5 v5 Rper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ Z: }# O$ T+ H" e, r+ I) d, g: H! m2 I8 x( ?
<< r4 W* c. x: j& x
Highlights from across Canada:& }! w( a( T, P. T) T& I# d
+ F' N6 Y; f) Q5 v, A& C
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
/ ~ L7 ]/ F' @& P0 x intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing- }/ f6 \7 l* X" v5 i. D- l
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
2 B" P) w6 z! ?) N: s/ v) N only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 @+ \- S3 d, T+ Q since about the middle of 2007.
5 e' H; R; C4 s! I- k1 | - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
+ j8 w; p/ X) c' i# t& b* d frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
- \: ]: f) ?1 |9 D ~% \4 t: w! M decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
; N- d2 K5 h/ I4 g largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
" i* G& S( O6 U- y" ^: s poor affordability levels.2 U' C0 M* r' }
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the( L5 a @7 Q* |5 I
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and0 d* T3 v F' z2 A/ q
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.- v; @' C* v$ n/ ?0 k0 F. Z
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to R) j) ]. \! v9 q8 d
minimize any downside risks.
; I1 U, i1 F( n1 ~ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. o6 M y' ^% x" G4 N
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
) j+ v) p0 ~) C# t) t unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
7 V% ]) H2 a( Q 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly" }/ r* [0 j. f' m5 S9 N& V
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.5 G) j3 Z, V. m2 E
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 |5 v+ @7 @8 C0 r. `; p' l Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
0 v' J0 c0 K$ e* K( q) T( Y' I9 B far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ J7 a: |% v% s7 n
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be' Y1 M! a- D+ m$ I/ B7 V3 b
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only; `8 \5 ?- X3 L1 v0 a0 D0 _3 e8 T! i8 Z
modestly in recent years.& H' u7 F, q3 _8 H6 ~, d/ B
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ t' n8 s' P1 B9 Y7 u
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot& A4 u% X% G J
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% R7 J1 _# ?: v, c$ _/ P$ T% Z8 U
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability5 ]- G5 i5 f" H1 ^% c
following two years of deterioration.
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