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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC |+ w; I7 s+ [( @ @
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
" B" k7 B0 G- L- H! M' W9 ~middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
. s$ U8 E! d, P6 E6 O8 ]gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 k0 ]$ ?, _+ u( W1 E' Haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.8 i# d/ |. [: O R$ O- f5 ~' z
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 V. ~; s; [4 `; Z* j1 [
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
' o0 g: h0 J$ I( ]8 ^5 V% Mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" [1 q, b* Z7 M3 H/ m/ W3 q" Emeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."8 t8 s7 ~% k; s) y7 L9 z) W+ ^
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is5 [6 C- |8 \9 F6 q
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,' R |. Q3 z, |+ M5 M# V ]
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
& Q9 o6 t/ p- l3 x$ Nsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* u9 E/ W" z, b, r+ U The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 I4 J- E, @0 l
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 V; [6 Z# Y5 F) [home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.2 @5 P" I# d& [* e, R
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
4 H- J/ Z- W$ Bstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
2 S5 @$ ?' ]1 z+ p i, q0 hthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
# J6 X( l+ B! l6 ~' }7 u1 [1 f9 _2 W* U According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) S5 {6 V9 E3 ^; R$ |
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in) s' n" I9 T6 J, ^4 T1 C
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at* x) J7 d8 e4 U" q
historically depressed levels.* ]: w# ~" _, B! y6 g3 |9 N
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
* A& }# k. v5 R8 v* nof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
8 I8 s3 g. e& J0 E1 O( j/ kprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" X1 K$ y+ t' }' I: G8 S- P0 A6 D3 K+ Shands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
+ m( R) z: P0 ~0 Cenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the. }& Y3 z( J5 I, v1 T. r; U
months ahead," added Hogue.' v! [- A& }3 S$ |7 t$ k8 a; q) J
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest, c% C$ f) f2 g, H- @
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
_1 a2 {* _3 w f J" }( F42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
4 u' ?$ N+ r& V# K The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for) v9 y+ |; Q& l# R# C
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these4 \6 s9 o+ b; V/ i1 {# c
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only/ V* E* d' @# z$ v7 Q0 s+ G* {
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& [6 o5 d% c! ~6 t1 T* y0 {3 b- a( D
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
- |# Z4 _8 E4 h7 q2 _, d' m. B) ^based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
8 B- g0 Z9 ^2 J! @benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented4 j! |* d: ? N, n( M1 r0 T) I
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
8 B2 [5 |) X8 x8 Q$ c; p4 B# A! xcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
, l v2 b" M. n& N0 \% i# [For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 E6 d3 f7 P0 E q f1 M7 c
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
' D" u, p5 n. C% |5 ^per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
; z, H, y$ g, e, ?5 E1 Y2 O& g* f* A5 }. }9 t9 [' v1 m' o
<<6 B* T9 q" Y% G$ G' e ?
Highlights from across Canada:8 y9 I$ T. Z+ j/ @# c* J4 ?
( G: l; H9 B* d6 \: Q& ?
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
( G4 {, b) Y" x# J! F2 V4 [. U intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
! K4 [$ o- C' I6 u2 P home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
' l, j1 ~% h2 M+ _: C3 {, | only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: B$ n' l; {+ d since about the middle of 2007.
0 }3 N! [8 n4 m9 ] - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the5 |9 S4 u! C9 W( `1 A. Y1 H
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
( s7 e1 F: p# Z1 b; Y# j0 q decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still% v7 y9 \! @$ i2 j8 W' q% u. G
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' X/ N. w9 _; r% k. H2 C+ a5 ^ poor affordability levels.
/ t# ~ x. ]6 y0 r9 `7 C - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the9 u, |& {7 X0 U+ q
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and* R7 G6 a. t, k/ }4 ^/ _5 W
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
8 u. y# D, W4 K N Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to Z; F- \( z# F, J
minimize any downside risks.) q8 W, z0 l' S/ V3 D: S' `
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market% B( Y+ m7 Y$ x3 a
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
( s, P7 R1 _8 Y% v5 s5 V unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
" t) l8 v/ G' q( v2 N* R2 i7 z 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
& ]+ b4 o6 I ]5 v0 N being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
. U& w2 L" `! q0 I% x0 T - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in1 ` l7 D0 i" X4 G+ o c
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! X5 ?% Y+ w r, E
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up' q3 j u$ K! R5 W' M D) u5 `$ a
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be& D) J1 p5 B' z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only: v/ X5 b; f$ W( ?# N
modestly in recent years.9 e* r. G' ~9 J4 j0 ]6 c6 R. b
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) Y2 o s" n% G8 w1 ]
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
3 T, K( F4 P; [ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward3 i. e p/ a/ G) ^6 s L& p, j
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
! Z6 {+ B- t5 u following two years of deterioration.# `) j' d" `! {' w: u! I
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