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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
, [3 O* X; ^2 E A- t$ c TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the" c. a1 U$ O6 [. `* U# H) }
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
! c6 E) W& f' bgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,2 x% n+ h# R/ d# D0 ?' c, n
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.% G' y. \7 d$ ~, A& ?* @3 |
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"$ V. H& X O8 q6 Q, O4 T
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is9 y( ^9 W# E# N0 {
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 C- G8 }3 a# c
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."1 Q. P0 Q, j% |1 w" L7 l
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* ]* |# `8 t% t$ ]( ~# Lworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,1 y! Y) C4 B x& e G, w& X
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
# v' o2 i$ U! h8 _- [- G4 vsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.. J4 |7 z: Z, E b2 V2 q& H5 W9 Y
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
8 U) W0 W+ N0 H: k3 n0 {; W6 i$ R }. zproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& S$ N; E5 }. g2 V1 X
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
8 ~0 E6 b+ ~% b6 L7 tAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
) d# z! e6 T& Y8 V7 N( sstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and! ^1 i: ^! C0 n
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* z6 G7 S# D- f+ }& b& W. T A
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
, K& \0 o {- e6 P z; y5 y' l" }. S, }may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 H- ~! G/ ]9 K' d5 D- O- kthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at/ V7 s! ]6 ~! S) n* O4 z% `
historically depressed levels.2 b- N7 F! V8 u2 Y0 `8 z0 B
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
# K; I( K/ S; S* k! Pof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House! ^6 u, J5 l: l( ~; q! Q
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the$ G( ?& R8 j/ T% Y% B& D# N
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
( l. n# I# F+ g4 ^! Tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, k: T# }, x. n6 R. Rmonths ahead," added Hogue., b1 t( A- h, ]6 {; J0 t
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
* X: V) e; ^! gcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
" ]8 m, W- a$ o% q42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
' C3 i1 X' x$ B- b! }, t- g8 x0 i& K The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for# `( g3 @! s* |; W
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
* _: m3 [: o) t3 c7 tcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only) P5 w+ P# t) z- C2 e
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.! h3 l0 b6 V! l) T. U/ R7 D
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
( Z/ Y7 p7 g; k, M2 B3 l$ obased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property( ?3 c0 _+ K% M0 E/ h
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% o. x A0 P. T8 E& ^2 C: I* rincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard: |& K4 `1 S, Z3 D9 ^4 c
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.4 o5 \8 k: t6 ^+ h9 L
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership& y5 Z# [: q, H# _/ Q! M
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
& H& \' x0 l0 x1 gper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.6 F2 C7 k8 ~4 }/ \
5 q# I8 o& Z% [ <<
7 J# \% }- @$ q: v+ n/ k H Highlights from across Canada:
: h- D7 a& G- X8 b5 w' e6 A/ Z/ Y. P- c/ j' G T
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
/ y* @, M+ b5 l# a intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
, D! ~4 z8 f+ T) ?5 @% y home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
) W5 J6 r, \! J9 e9 z. n$ V only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track5 I+ B( L) Z5 b+ |+ h6 P ~
since about the middle of 2007.8 W9 u8 V8 O/ ?; J+ K3 F
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
$ J# d0 H$ d! A3 M+ d* e frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# W$ g5 J7 V* v3 A, P. N9 b; Y: U, x
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
g( }" I- b- `7 O% s( z7 s largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
! k# _- O( D0 D+ y% i poor affordability levels.
- ^4 r- I( G' v. T' q6 k$ ^0 n - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
P) `& a+ O+ g4 z' Q7 [6 k6 l2 L vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
! r4 r, V% \/ l- q$ a+ ]3 b prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
& N' F1 e5 P1 T; y Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to2 c5 v, w6 I3 f8 E1 V: P
minimize any downside risks.4 |7 {9 w1 s3 x( L
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
- `) R/ j& z4 D9 \; H8 Q% N, d conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 I4 w- W: O/ G! O4 H unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' ]& f! \) {' P0 \' g1 \& ] 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 u3 S6 V0 Y3 }) y being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- Z5 K+ }. k& W/ i, k - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
: I3 d, ]* C" k: Y7 l7 A, _& F4 ` Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus/ t. s7 S8 H4 @( O6 \# ?7 Q
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
- @/ ]: h6 ?4 p& W8 ~& L reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
, }5 |7 F# k: ~5 B% C ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
8 q4 J4 |% y& A/ I. f( M: s5 H modestly in recent years.
" E* ~/ |; B, @ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
' [3 h) W- g# s( o, i. ], ^ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
( [% Q) s& m+ t. Y. a spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward4 M- {/ B! ~# @( f$ D: R# `
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability/ s- E; D4 z! x
following two years of deterioration.5 G$ E* y5 _' ] `8 Z
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