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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
! a' u( C! Z# _% E7 X! E2 Y! ` TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
8 a" j; h# k, M& ]9 ^) Y' D9 q; l7 Jmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# U5 q# K. k9 b: ~9 E0 o. b0 [% I9 U- ^
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 _/ O( J5 G5 d0 v' ~$ S8 qaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
. c' W; u, f3 I: t "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( m7 i; [ q* i% k
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
2 W) F/ Q( ^7 ~- Y( w6 z0 D' Bimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability( t: G! Z3 g( u4 ?5 F5 n
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
. l( ~& F* H; | I: L @- T9 U RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is3 @3 x) _- R* c% {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,6 \' O& n: T9 i
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have+ a2 D( x- E( M9 T
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.7 F" o5 I: r |9 \1 z* M# s
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
, e/ q5 |8 u1 [) C( Bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 n+ ? g# q" v+ H; T( A1 N2 l* ohome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
( J) F+ l- X9 }Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the. X) x9 Z0 x+ h; K( {3 u0 h- A; y
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and8 {* p0 f% N" J; s
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 Y9 m4 N% Z) Y+ ~, b+ g4 P According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 ~5 b5 X2 B3 l! W$ n
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in: O' ^- _5 W; V" u. ~2 E/ D
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 u$ K0 P" D- j: y1 g
historically depressed levels.
' f* q( _) b# ?) m6 z- X$ r& Y Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 W6 i( o" i" h# X { y+ ~0 tof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
0 d, T1 k A1 t" s& h6 Z/ m- c2 J. Aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
0 O8 X/ h( u+ |: Y( nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This7 M/ m2 y: n0 w5 T# Q
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the) N) d# G, B* K; O4 ?
months ahead," added Hogue.' p6 G4 b6 P; o# l o) f
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
V1 [3 D: Y: R$ _$ U2 f7 S# Ncities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary$ T+ C- k, L8 R- w( j% M! ~
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# f7 s* M2 E; [( P; O! R- T: M The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
' e* M& h! P: e: D% @- V9 P$ da broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these* D+ }' G1 R8 ?4 Q
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% s+ C3 X+ @4 ?3 [
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 V* r" D6 U' ?( Q; x5 o
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is6 U _. l/ ^" \/ x- c w, j, G
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ @8 R# a" E# s5 ]7 T6 V
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented Q) k9 X& |& D1 Z# v
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard& q" D. j; `7 W9 c# z
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
/ }4 S. r! H+ M, P ]4 B* \/ CFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
1 @/ l; B% P# P# W( acosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
, a6 O% z. L, N2 S$ Oper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.3 R/ f0 g7 N: y5 k& o$ m
+ s' X0 C# {: E2 [5 I5 u; H& e% L
<<$ j2 p. b2 x9 F) F3 [: d
Highlights from across Canada:
0 N" e7 ?2 |/ I% v2 {/ `5 N6 ?9 T2 ]8 P! e- @
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has1 O/ x3 p: G; t- I) A/ K9 A
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing) [6 x: v: [0 Z% P/ z" c
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; z y9 c6 j$ h. [' h4 N! S
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track, l7 ~/ ~4 j \
since about the middle of 2007.
( ^. G$ T* Z1 R# Z) j0 t' u7 ` - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# e: H5 a6 V; I$ e5 _! `
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
/ Y+ k. q7 A% X, h1 R- E decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
/ h- F; v) }# }- F) v largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
% y/ v+ F3 S/ f8 i6 X5 T2 o poor affordability levels.
) C: ]" P" J# W) _5 J* k8 C - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
* H2 ]" X- C( _# ~3 u. {9 B) e$ H vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# A( U/ H( @# j+ }. ~% U% | Y prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ A9 Y4 b: y/ h4 M, _; B1 I Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to7 c+ ?9 a3 \! H! @( x! M \ x5 p+ {/ T/ T
minimize any downside risks.3 E7 f; l5 I- G7 V4 k3 \& J# \
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
6 ^, `7 Q+ V* M3 U conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is7 j0 W" w* H, M N: H
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* V& X' Z D. Z6 e2 i+ L0 ^
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
2 `; z, |6 L$ _/ t+ J. o) g' |2 z. ? being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
+ b- [' [0 i/ |' x - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# i. Z( r) w/ D2 n! x" n
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 e+ w6 w4 _! y- ~$ y
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up( r% Q% a' M4 j9 `) L
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
; {& K5 `6 b6 a ]; i% f" U ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only( G2 i9 w! m W$ A7 @
modestly in recent years.
' X/ q6 E+ ]& n$ {4 B, ~ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. p& q* l( X7 C0 D" L- \
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot8 Y" U7 A1 p* r& A* D0 ~
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
6 _+ ?1 _8 i! J. B price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
! Q1 n# y, J* S. N( T+ d+ f8 v5 R1 u following two years of deterioration.( z2 C' s, Y% W# p d& J
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