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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 ]' ]# _. [$ C4 J
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 [- q+ E3 p0 b5 t! [( Z
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive2 c( X: }5 } [5 P) V! s4 Q. G
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,4 @$ ]4 t" o4 N9 n
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
# n8 J) L$ J1 J3 T+ \( F7 M "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,": v- {6 w1 u7 o: q
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is, p( o$ e* K! Y" H% i
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
V* q5 H$ e: F- L, jmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 I/ u a$ R! f# Z* z3 N' w z
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is( F" b. _1 ~ p/ i+ v; ?8 w
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 o& P2 T" `- bwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
6 }6 {. v0 G- l, x7 R: {, Osustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* w) R7 a! r5 n# {1 [ i6 l$ c1 ^ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
4 _: @3 Y4 D, L4 ~7 j) ^proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
$ P1 ~0 H' n/ rhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.# w& | m0 R& h' S. t; \" Q% j, ]
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the. W- L" B% S+ c3 D, q
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
$ H1 I/ d- C; n/ e8 T1 R( _the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
' K' J# v1 E, c0 H& u. U) v! H According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ Y+ {$ c3 K- ~: G' Lmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in; q; m! k% s# e7 ?8 ~: l! u
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
& q5 `" k# ]9 h X/ r9 thistorically depressed levels.
n% F5 j! _5 C4 z$ ?. P1 Y, F7 D Q Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
# J' A) G; M3 |& y) N( y7 \of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
6 O1 [; b$ r8 h" c5 p- wprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the0 J( c8 t' d1 g3 S! x' | ]0 E8 _
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
$ C+ g; f& x, jenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* q; v- X" [5 R
months ahead," added Hogue., z4 A- ~/ d) R! ?( k) J5 ~
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
. m; X! v1 D: r+ P3 _cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary7 ^7 }6 ~2 o' g4 [( m
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
, o3 ]! k; U+ L: E4 }$ [6 ^" y1 \ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for/ B8 J2 F+ M4 O
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: C* q! H* i1 \% N W) xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only0 j- t6 _- G* x( M
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
, `: \1 y" i; z' s The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ j2 h8 U2 H) a# W0 _based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
. |- p3 R! g& X* S6 v$ V% J- abenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
& c) f$ Y9 w/ d+ ?/ q3 Yincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
9 W F. d# `5 Y* D( W4 z5 Wcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.9 [2 {) j5 ?! u- n
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 j9 s; C9 `! J8 N. M6 {- Z
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
0 j4 w8 q$ ~: Mper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.; y( B6 M1 `3 Q W) C) e
/ T* H9 w$ n$ X$ }
<<$ c$ j' {. C4 ]6 p8 U1 d
Highlights from across Canada:. x$ t( v/ j E" G2 v0 F
$ T) y- l$ R0 j- N, u3 l0 x
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
; b( E7 ` _* d" I" | intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" \; s+ ?' D+ f1 R( |: U
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 V3 Q: T a% o* l, E only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
1 @) L3 C, ]. ?- Z, {4 M0 J# k/ P since about the middle of 2007.$ m1 h6 O1 M* X# ^- e
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
$ ?2 B$ L1 E: i7 l frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to d& O& J6 ?4 u( F3 y
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
" ]* @+ K: E& o largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. V! y, R! m* L& S4 Z& X
poor affordability levels.6 A7 F& I. [$ h' D! j9 }) P
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ L1 s) Y# _+ y- Z3 F) u+ k
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
3 O2 q' Z* R' P7 y$ i prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ o4 z% r$ D! n: i4 i8 @ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 v- w4 W, W, G+ R
minimize any downside risks.# {5 q/ H' M9 R& b) x d5 i. b
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
' m4 o; R% n( c# B" c9 u conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is9 T& v* H( A8 K* Y
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
, t4 w( D8 ~& c% o 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly9 b+ n0 ?' |; S
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ d8 I2 Q: E& q6 h- P+ l
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in1 v9 r$ E8 @ x' X
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
1 g9 ~, _7 u z0 B( U far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
; p! m. d% q# z0 W; _. F6 ]' K& k. i- r reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be' Z5 Q/ ?: I7 V
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
+ V6 \9 g9 C( y modestly in recent years.
1 |. X8 [3 _& u6 f# I* ? - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, a, Q ?$ _ Q6 ^1 _0 }+ ~
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
2 i" K" P8 E' Q7 ~' j spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward, m% @6 m; I: s2 K, S- |6 o8 C
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability' h- B# H0 h8 `& P) N3 D' Y
following two years of deterioration.
" M$ e/ |2 b* D9 j+ Q4 y >> |
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