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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; R+ B* Y# o1 e TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the6 l2 S" m* a6 ^' d, v+ N
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
3 Y" Y+ X8 p/ z3 ^, @6 A9 U7 zgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
A+ a2 `" @' Q; f5 eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.+ x1 Z) l( }, E, _& B
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,". A; E5 p2 i3 D
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is0 I" g8 f, Y' V" X4 k. d
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
7 K+ J Z H# n% d& f4 smeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
' O/ \( D5 M2 J5 g. Z+ s7 H6 { RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 ?" e: p8 a- f
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing, A2 v8 `' ~0 x7 ]( T1 i8 q' h
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have) U+ S0 `* C0 {0 E. K, L
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.- R L z- l; v# j
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
1 S" j1 ]- y, P9 [% Eproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
; E+ v- ~' e$ Nhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& J5 ^1 x' i! L& M' s8 J( P3 j
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
w# {$ M6 L* X) {standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and" @3 C5 n3 W2 P4 w# y+ B
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 y) e- i9 I3 b! k- x q- Q
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets0 P$ E& f, [+ ?( ~4 F
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in Y/ u; m) H6 i# n/ G
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
9 I( M2 ]* a% W" W; Bhistorically depressed levels.- q) D/ @3 ?6 e
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
/ v6 [( b( p6 n8 T* Xof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
& I, z9 f6 d( b+ v3 ?prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
( g! c5 f; }: z2 w8 x0 d# xhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; R; s& {% Y8 h( c
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
: X: f- Z0 d/ `2 ymonths ahead," added Hogue.2 R+ F; o( }8 {% g4 e6 [
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest6 J2 l) h( r3 H. A0 j. l9 V
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary+ O2 g: {6 s) U0 {
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.3 o/ F+ {- \% R2 H6 M1 V1 ~( E
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for9 U1 S+ k" Y! H
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these4 e$ a4 Y: k# y0 I1 w2 L1 ?
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only7 ~# e5 D' c! a; T( q3 w! L
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
r+ @* B a9 s% W$ n The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 N2 A& K+ w% W4 e X
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property% j7 A" A1 T7 u! D% W B& }
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
7 \! e* e$ M& N. {7 @/ N: [including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 J0 \' B0 \0 L2 N$ [- Tcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
9 W" G; ]! `" _; |/ B ^For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership* }1 _( A% D( M; H9 T! U
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50* ^# Q, l& J: u X w1 E
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ J* m6 L( `% d( Z6 N j$ H# T. w5 }0 S
<<9 T, G8 k; w# q
Highlights from across Canada:
; w* R" o/ G1 h! Q) |/ o% H% }: T; ~
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
+ v6 a, Y2 E+ n intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
+ e r" Z$ |5 v& f. M3 s: { home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
6 O$ u3 s* Z$ {, S7 R: D only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track$ r! R* s' M3 _/ N8 K6 V7 {
since about the middle of 2007.7 F6 G. l$ x6 D) ~. t& N3 ]7 W
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
! r' g( Z& i. X7 O! H: C: E frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to. T/ c; q( v6 k. `
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
. C3 j! t# h3 Q# t, b& K) ? largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
& z! e4 |( ]) u$ b poor affordability levels.
' t# `7 h; G. P& I - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
9 M) }0 x; Y8 Q& E4 l9 {2 D! [4 y vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ M/ o# }2 n" m9 [+ G7 c# J
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.9 o) m7 l# }# q! Y, ^& A0 J8 P2 v9 E
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
7 p4 h6 L, G/ c, q8 c minimize any downside risks. M0 e- ^7 K* `/ j, O. B4 L
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market$ g) G. B4 g6 I( r3 _: {, x
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
: u9 [+ }# @7 H& Q: ~ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early4 A7 V$ T4 C1 k
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. K+ x/ o1 v- e8 f6 w( t5 H
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ G' k# m, o G9 l
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
0 s) e3 E7 i2 l; `" Y" a Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 d7 p! } ?7 ?! R! _( g far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. d9 z6 Y) ]& S( c# j4 [* R2 N reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
7 I0 Z @& z1 {; }4 J8 L ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, b4 M- u# y* ~) t
modestly in recent years.
9 b: p" P' p( T) ^+ \% e1 | - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the# M/ B. x( {1 s: [* D( L
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ l4 K& L' F2 M& P spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward M& B% K% Z$ |* v; s8 \0 [% S8 U
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
6 C3 S+ w' L/ {" j$ k9 I; K following two years of deterioration.
6 u* s" _% ~. j: i/ { I$ I >> |
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