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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 8 u) b4 C: n! S8 s( n9 r
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the8 O+ v" L% ?, Q$ |# L" E* M
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! o2 v9 C6 N9 ~4 E
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,5 m# L0 F3 H! m) H
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.: u3 n5 @( F. u$ e( f
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"& v N9 {9 S5 E
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is6 m- ]5 T5 p$ `0 s- f0 R
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
; n1 z! ~1 {5 H4 _+ q1 Xmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."; [- G, ?! v, Z) E7 L
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is% X n' c" K; f* L& H
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
7 `/ Z& V4 `7 ~$ o$ g$ lwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have. x f q' y( d& W1 Y+ R
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) R/ ~$ ?- r' ~7 \9 _' C The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
' {2 b" e: P2 ?5 {. @proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a. e4 L2 L: V) q1 R
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 C: S# L5 K& F3 i& ~
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the, u7 \2 {! f. z d
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and2 N4 ~, @1 j1 ]3 U
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ U" t* u ~9 q! ^
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
3 q/ ~3 X9 c5 J0 zmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in" v: D; R6 ~ O
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at" v, k4 I: W9 s0 w/ u
historically depressed levels.. C! e& s1 X; S1 l# ]: q# A# u
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% E0 F1 i! s6 h; Nof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House0 L1 P9 R+ ~1 S) d0 }
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
: W7 z$ _5 g. O" {# J. \hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This( x; B0 |" q8 u' a! z' [: J3 X
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the1 h" y' O) }: e
months ahead," added Hogue.
& ]- g0 Q7 J$ k5 P1 y RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest* b0 V) [1 Q! k3 ~0 T% E2 K+ t' _
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
0 W4 `) v' D+ X0 }, S42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
5 U- b* R. }. p) x, I+ {& U. s The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for+ J9 U( U, _( n W7 X
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 [& \8 v `' ?3 n3 D) w
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
& I/ O# r$ `( W5 z7 _8 L# l5 ptakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. d2 a ^: [, a# v' D/ h3 } The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is; @5 v9 w1 N0 ~, u
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 K* P6 ?9 I' _0 _$ hbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 k9 q6 F8 Y- S1 B* m" {3 ^2 ]# jincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
) B0 Y+ r2 d5 w/ A9 Bcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.' d- F/ r0 }. _/ u+ b% X
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
' Q; k7 `. t Ycosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% b( I( i* I- }
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.+ O5 g4 L- P2 ?" y$ ]( C' k: }
2 C7 I! v3 {+ e
<<3 r) Z6 r' `. X
Highlights from across Canada:
; |! M1 Y$ z, s+ {
1 e4 _. U- A9 ^" i2 J! j - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has$ G! I' c' F6 U0 \' Q7 E0 z% J: B6 D
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 M' s1 N& y- h' Q5 r B/ | home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound" z8 n4 c# c9 A
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 b% ]& C! L+ z) |* L: S2 C7 q since about the middle of 2007.) |0 |4 y# q9 D" v: ]) g. @% E* c; E
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the- Z, n2 s- j$ z h1 j; f. F
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 g9 m, A8 P6 V9 s4 E$ c* p
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still4 ?2 z( W9 Q" L+ i( q9 S9 J$ x8 e3 p
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
, x' x, a$ i% o, A poor affordability levels.( j, J* M( g4 d( R* m3 O2 J2 j
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
" U' P/ h0 A( Z* R" n( n& H vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and* _! i' ?5 d" p# W4 q
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.5 n( M4 y1 U% Y, q( L! {
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 U5 b) b# U7 N" C% d W* e
minimize any downside risks.5 f5 _ I1 ~2 A; Q. }, I+ j
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
" D r; u# s; _: z& T/ G1 G conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
% [0 V2 D' r! w Z8 ^ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
3 C6 ~. p+ m# b: _5 W8 J 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
) } K% g! J+ T1 x a5 C% C being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 s9 m9 @5 c6 u& @; |
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
+ E& ]( X$ O8 }& L, }: W Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
- [# }# V# x. _, q1 u0 G far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. R4 i5 m4 O" j6 `" N" N9 h% M reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
' f% Y" b4 n% u/ V* D ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
! `2 `0 m' E' r H6 J modestly in recent years./ z y# d: t* o- [( x6 O
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. Z/ h! m9 u$ U8 s2 e
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 z% ?" g2 K' Q; i x5 h5 o/ D spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
8 N: ~. N ~2 l' N price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability. @! ^1 H6 _( Y# c9 C: W. G. C1 @3 K) F
following two years of deterioration.* b, q& D, H; A7 u D6 p6 I5 G
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