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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 I: X- ]& Q- S5 a) Q TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
* N4 u" `- U5 K6 Q: [: V1 h% C' Imiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
" @1 @5 p+ H4 a) f+ ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( q- w g* i0 @ U
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) m+ |# u; Z d
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
2 c4 `9 ^; s5 ^2 g$ L6 q' w- |# msaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% c* B- I1 s! U# M5 o( \9 c9 O
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability6 R- C+ V8 S6 `( I
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."- X4 J( @$ T P4 _) r: ?
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
. y4 j# s3 T" c( [) k# ^3 Z. \/ n; Iworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, i6 C3 R8 p+ h* ]* owhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 w9 j( g( r; Q. B0 W$ W: W
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.# R% R& a! O% d- r/ e& ?
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
t. t. G1 T# Nproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a+ `( t4 y3 v+ _" Z$ F
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
7 W* R% R4 A* d/ {Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 Y, S) j3 W2 |* i. O4 J' ?standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and S) b3 _) y- _- y3 d
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
0 M: a- n0 P) D0 v( W ^. T3 h According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets4 n' P! K4 t) r. @: f/ E9 s
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 `! G0 I+ b0 o8 V
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
( y) N L+ n* b* c6 l$ t' R& j, \$ ~historically depressed levels.: R" S) ]* X4 g% |8 |
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost* h. }0 ]" h5 X
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House$ x; b( M; o0 p; P
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the5 I8 {2 Y; [4 E% D; r4 A
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This( j9 ^- T- e9 H; @
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
* L3 G3 Y% j% U+ O' A) o6 j V9 fmonths ahead," added Hogue.& p0 J, G& b% X$ ?
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest/ G- ]- \# S6 ]$ A: K# U
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary( q# H0 z6 w: K7 e) E
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
3 s& ]$ ]# S2 \# ?: E3 E. S The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for: M3 U. q2 U- c- L K- k- Q
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' `6 L4 P% ~8 ^0 V7 O, G/ scities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
- L+ w2 @6 \! y9 v9 L) Ytakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.- Y2 [% W5 o$ W7 a" Z2 g7 Y) Y* Z
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
5 s# H3 r$ v- d! x/ O6 F% s h2 n' Pbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
, j" m6 l: E8 @8 v5 w( |2 b% Vbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
* z1 @2 U& Q$ eincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
1 h9 t& @* u3 Z; T6 C+ Y8 dcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.5 C$ t1 p2 b$ D0 W+ s7 E
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
0 }3 y! j- u! M' ^: V8 @3 Vcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 503 G' M6 N" ~7 T7 a% y, f% [
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
3 ^4 v5 g+ f4 ?. k' T& U0 k0 Y
0 l0 P& _7 K T+ i* R- y <<
# y3 w: `' n- A5 Q9 F% Y8 \ Highlights from across Canada: k/ ?3 x1 g" z7 B5 z- f
4 g& d# H G6 Y K1 b: A
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has, u; M( r) ?9 S
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
. k- g6 \& V/ ~+ e# m# ]" G: \ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound% y$ |- ^, }# C8 u5 R9 Q' [
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track! x9 C* K! _9 l+ @- n; _' _# V
since about the middle of 2007.
8 ]+ b' F R0 E8 X4 y' B - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
8 Y4 H9 P3 z6 K5 h) n frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
% P$ Y X9 B) w' J& g- p decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
, O0 I: V. @4 y. v" a. e largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely9 ]8 J& q4 e0 Y' w+ ?4 U
poor affordability levels.- n3 ~" l3 U3 i
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the; L M; g- z/ y2 a3 c8 |4 }$ r
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
) L. C1 m! V1 r& r1 Q prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
1 u% j8 D$ n% e, c. v Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ A6 B9 J" c8 B; N2 F U! l
minimize any downside risks.
0 R$ q& u& G( g9 l - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market% N4 I6 t$ r# E/ B4 h8 O
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
% F& T z, |& s6 W* e$ \% d' { unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
8 I( \! j% M+ |8 F 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly/ i# W7 N$ L0 r: }+ I5 Z& t i6 a
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
3 h+ v0 A' t+ T; a/ f8 B4 N - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% U# E; K& \9 _, q
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus; @% Q- E, I$ D1 E& s* h( H: y
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up" v9 ^$ q' W4 H# L9 a) O% Z
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 `/ Z5 u! S+ s/ x5 D! G" K- N( E8 s
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only' ]( \% A* ~+ p5 U, |4 f$ l9 W
modestly in recent years.# `: c9 @& }) ?( y
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ P* d9 ~1 \" F% E7 I1 i* s0 w general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot* z) m5 T% E2 w t4 T/ ]
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
5 V+ Y/ x5 e. p8 |# S: {- h. ` price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability/ p' e1 `4 d, F& p$ ]
following two years of deterioration.6 v ~$ N5 i6 Y$ D' K' O
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