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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC . b. R+ w$ Z2 W; N) N
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the% ], }5 D e: n; n6 f8 n, ]7 P7 _ q: Q
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, m% m; O3 y, I* Q! I
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, N3 v& L7 k; d2 j5 iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.: D; _4 S% s9 i- o
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"2 r( g M+ b! R6 {6 n E. k7 H4 V% w4 y
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
$ j3 q& }) X8 X9 G5 V. d0 B* f' m) Aimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability" F4 R! f1 M X2 J2 f- d% i8 d
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
9 w3 }; y2 {2 o RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is# f1 D2 v9 N5 Z7 Z& _
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
) v, \4 m$ @. U$ Twhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have( G% J% a5 N; A: ]# w4 k
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
! D/ W3 F% d( y' \( O. Z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 T- P* \# ]* Z, w0 ?) iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
; ^6 N; N R/ Fhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( T2 I" y4 E; \
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# E9 V* P2 k$ \; s
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and* ~' s) D/ v0 k& L! Q. z1 x
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 C5 N7 }- k& i3 e
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
3 B8 Q. i$ V D# h8 l: P j/ d1 jmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
" O' @' J/ p4 ]. B& [( T1 ?the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at; Q0 p+ ]9 d& D3 q& ]' i
historically depressed levels.4 |. O( e, c. o4 [
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
- O% B$ ?, Z e2 n8 e* {of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House. Y { e8 ^# m9 w
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
# ]* `, n S7 u4 @9 Ehands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
, H e9 l- |9 q( Xenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
; z e9 x5 j" \. {* ~1 c5 Wmonths ahead," added Hogue.
* ?% L+ @3 q. K" S& u7 M, ^ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
?4 l; o) k$ H& m0 X8 l$ K: ocities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
+ G0 g- ?6 W2 L5 H" y42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
& U' r/ C+ T8 \8 U; U, ?0 C0 i The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for/ i3 P& M% d. P& }6 [, i
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ Z: d9 P0 b0 z! u& C! \: Zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only2 C* n" E0 U @% Q" ]9 m
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.* x. l( ]: u6 T
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is* y8 N( n1 p% N0 i
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property D: }6 x" j* t. H
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
; V( y: o, n) Mincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
) T! L, b" f" t: @3 Q. O- @9 {4 icondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home." c( z2 i" `0 |6 V
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership$ I' ^/ q% G% E* f+ F$ L4 A% W
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 n* O: b9 n" ~' T" J9 W
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
$ L4 _) R H9 u: e! l$ R4 a3 D+ `, P
<<
* e s' L. ^, t Highlights from across Canada:
. R, P( D+ j$ S; C% J- ~
9 @ k. K H! N( | E - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has9 g: p5 R Y A3 A8 E
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
8 K( B& y) X; X home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
$ M7 X7 p* I, F only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
{9 L( M/ ~& _1 {4 d6 S since about the middle of 2007.7 R- V3 T5 ?( c
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
2 d* t( t$ t" A7 l& u6 J frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to( F, i9 `# r. l
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still7 J. y0 r. D" E% B1 @' G
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely6 C1 l; E4 [* J8 U
poor affordability levels.; F2 W4 E' s' e/ P- ?- j
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the7 M7 D/ \# F( W, u9 ~/ L
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
( U9 H% }. Y7 |3 k: \* ^ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly. D3 i6 b# R& V) F1 e
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. f' i+ {5 l( \3 j# `( B minimize any downside risks.
9 a; `( I& r- W - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( h& R! p& h" n2 I% ]
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
8 A; r8 e1 `& e; o1 {: _7 d unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early$ r3 h0 w9 |. j3 v/ f
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly& {, W- I, ?4 W5 n* C) K, w0 F/ E
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
. }* E( `* @) C9 h - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in5 [* g: b# Z) Y3 e$ ?9 c: k
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
7 |3 |# C2 S2 E& B8 t6 a# \: `" S far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- f% h4 S0 z% y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be/ C. x8 |% d! h# s% f$ y2 O; N
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
1 ?7 @ J, P# w( W3 { modestly in recent years.
2 T4 r! ^ I$ ^6 ]+ ^4 j/ k1 n - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ C( ?% [+ D- t. ]4 D" U" w general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
0 K6 M5 S/ @7 [6 O$ U% i spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
0 K& w' u" O6 v6 ^8 f9 L! z price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
! E, T5 c. E2 v/ H7 ` following two years of deterioration.
$ R* `4 w. m0 K" z >> |
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