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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
8 q7 G- h g# d5 ^. k TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 h7 W8 I. v' a i0 }: V
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive* h- \) J9 C5 Q1 u5 p5 \
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
' h/ Q6 T7 Q: p4 @according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
7 f* p' m* v* j8 |& n8 W0 s& y "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 h9 U) \0 g; D% R# Z4 d; H! P
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# R: s: L& P+ S3 t7 uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
6 j' I) E! ~8 t9 dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
6 U' f; p4 ^" E; A RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 i" g* H$ s, y
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
/ c4 j. k3 N+ m# Pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have, |. {2 \. \1 T4 w. v4 n
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
8 g2 o- S+ |/ s( d) u( I& ~2 P, O- ] The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
, G! |- ], c k& {proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 t# l& s' H' V5 u6 Y- ]) l- [home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
. }& z6 y) b: x9 IAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
4 b$ J) X0 Y: U( N; Vstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and9 \7 m6 c4 o7 U& o
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.: s/ k. l5 `2 z, c* Z8 U) m
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
$ U! ?! P; C& b% F- @may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in, y' b1 h, a+ b# w* ?
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
" C2 |& _7 v( r+ b4 N8 {historically depressed levels.
7 |2 i2 n9 G" R Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost% V& T/ S# l, C* \
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
: z0 Y9 `! O+ kprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the2 V2 H! o/ c% t: l" {
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
6 \1 A" q* ^! v. yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
0 @& i5 D& Z. c f( zmonths ahead," added Hogue.% q$ }, H4 q6 c; A2 q) Z8 L
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
: ]& h1 b9 ^- t3 e [cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
- M5 i+ B: |8 k& ` _& q1 ^42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.$ ~3 D7 z/ y- [: e" j
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 K% Q" k$ R9 o: R
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
2 \! u9 e* B- e- J J* i, K2 i: ncities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 l4 B5 d1 ~/ u& i }. Y2 j
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account. R" d4 n0 w; k3 v# |& s
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
0 C6 z H) ]+ c; Bbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; a. S$ L) |" a8 \; R7 A( i% Wbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
9 V6 i6 X8 b; s7 Q4 Dincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard' L6 `$ v; Q1 R- c3 {7 h4 n
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home., Z0 q# {" M$ {, X% o5 {
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
, q$ @- _4 F7 B1 E; i* r' xcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
9 |; o& g( \8 D# p& ?0 ^per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.# w5 p% z( V3 d4 @
, T6 M7 \# H; s: l- o6 {5 V2 b7 _
<<+ r# G; o* ^) Y( U7 j7 [
Highlights from across Canada:" D) T9 Q8 |( A3 t. `3 i# d
U5 B$ K7 d$ o$ X: H1 K' M) A) V
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
5 ^, Y9 C6 e9 b* T# ^6 R* O intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing1 u2 Q' ^. j7 Y- b1 u
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& q3 Z" Z' X' L0 x& {# x# c* f' @ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 f/ e$ p" j% F since about the middle of 2007.! K7 k& j; J1 o% q5 A& L: Q @2 }4 r+ L
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
7 Z3 D) t- n# P frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to4 o; o: y( Z5 @6 s6 E1 K4 S! G' X
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still; n" Y( U2 w4 p% \4 I
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ ~: e0 C% Z8 K. e, Z poor affordability levels.
# e4 e! f6 e9 K" E& P$ ~& p - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* i6 Q- h8 ~: F4 Q& d
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and) r6 _) S. P/ y
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 V* B1 v9 i; I2 F$ p Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to P, ^ `1 @' e4 Y
minimize any downside risks.
3 s$ c5 z, v: l+ ?& l* w - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( m. ^. Q% t+ r
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is" U) P4 ?; {) Y, F
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early" x+ b; M) c4 ^3 j: V" G
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% r, @8 W$ q6 v' A4 o7 n being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
( |9 z' [$ _" L5 }" I7 k( Y - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
. G1 d3 S% F$ F1 T$ }7 Z Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
. D7 N" z) [! n/ k far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
' c; D3 g! O* A- `" h reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! s$ }, ]0 Z3 c5 d) j; W) |) j1 a% u ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
' Y A& d& e2 I2 r/ Z modestly in recent years.4 e) a* H3 A2 V
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the& n" F( Y$ T7 h) @' G7 W/ D8 f) J
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot, E5 _" H. m4 a- b& m
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
' K4 s3 b" K! j5 E; K9 q price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
5 p3 |. z3 R. S% W# k: W/ f/ E! v. w% m following two years of deterioration.' q* q9 m% \- L. A/ N3 ]/ D
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