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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC , p, B% M7 v8 c
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ _2 O& f. R7 L7 c7 Q y
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive+ T; K; J+ V" }3 C4 d
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,! N' Y; }/ Q, W0 u
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." I) j* p7 u& V0 }. W, `0 n+ a
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"& z1 Y# O. V& D, z( Z
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is5 X, p' Q! j& u
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability8 h P# C+ e6 j
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# A3 ?$ I6 E9 S- E: ^2 h/ b \
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 L- t0 ^/ @- q* J6 {, n
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
- @3 N0 b; s! I( { j1 L$ Gwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have/ D: H* I8 J( T; k8 o
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. I( O% b3 r$ H$ g+ l( u5 j7 X4 S3 j
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
# @; U5 w# }$ gproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a4 |. _7 m3 H5 Q/ h9 y8 f1 j
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& L S4 V( _( UAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the! q% g9 `4 u/ m' L6 g4 b7 d2 L( M
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 D/ M! b5 A7 Z; _! V* @3 F7 m. R
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
7 S1 n, \1 Y1 J According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
^' d' W3 P. c) ^3 `may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in c9 d- s5 ]( _
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) T& n" G0 o, x8 e: {
historically depressed levels.1 {, `1 E. |; @) V! q6 n
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
4 C! S8 b; m" [: F- Xof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House! ]4 _# A& e9 B2 F/ y7 e/ ^1 }
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
, v, q" v4 ]9 E) e2 ^! vhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This6 f* {. [& P" }. ^. |4 o! _# d9 m2 d/ B
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* b: a) o; Y4 @% g, n
months ahead," added Hogue.
3 h) z9 q& b# X RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest. `) E5 e3 K4 j# X: U
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
4 V+ \9 g6 T- o3 O9 Q4 m42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
: e, M% @+ S: H& `8 a8 } The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
1 ?- x8 J0 \, H0 V; y: {a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
7 W( z+ k; A" ecities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
3 x+ C( G1 K& A! h2 }# Itakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
; e# F1 n$ s7 F9 D% v The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
- h3 l2 c" f( Q/ sbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property5 B! g t# {4 b" p0 |# O A
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
7 A; i% Q% g2 X+ s1 | b4 u' oincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
+ l2 G- E4 X7 W1 {) ncondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 L) M7 r. ~ _8 p9 V/ u
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
0 U" k* S! S2 n: N3 i, Lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
/ F9 k' k4 x2 Z" bper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
# c# ~! H$ @+ a* D! B) P& L4 |# Z! i% v% ]
<<2 A# X' a2 P0 e! a5 ? p3 o
Highlights from across Canada:
" z, ?+ X7 Q8 U+ k( s8 O" D# }# s/ L
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has% B7 N' P0 s7 P$ f
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
" d# w0 w' I( Q" m' q home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
' {3 u7 R: s& [6 n+ _ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
- s# N5 @' H/ ?, g6 `7 u9 o since about the middle of 2007.
1 V3 W! q& T8 E3 G. s - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the- t- r9 p2 ^9 c6 |4 }5 H0 o& n1 @
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to0 f; O. n$ O( L& y# Y
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
9 j/ o/ \1 v/ G( _0 b; d3 | largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely) H$ ^3 `1 |0 J+ I1 I( m1 }- Q
poor affordability levels.8 X9 G6 Q) N4 a' S
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% Z2 x2 ~& I8 F3 @" z0 L" R vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and2 I- s0 m( ~( y. d% ?
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 J2 R8 D N9 i: _- O) b: a Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to Z; |( B' w& S# _0 d
minimize any downside risks.. a* d f# E, q* }; u
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
0 `5 W8 X, E' v5 u conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is% {& K+ [9 B) t2 |+ f& C, p
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early7 K! r. e6 k8 \9 T$ o
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
. J1 Z5 p# \+ g$ k) B P" ~ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ U; @/ G) i' t* x
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in: f5 D+ l" e0 n7 Y
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
$ _5 w3 A ]9 x7 P far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up7 O9 l1 U& R4 }9 B1 [
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: b6 z8 l! h8 H' K, s0 e ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 x G5 g( K1 A. p
modestly in recent years.
# D+ x6 F2 n$ A( L1 `6 [& K - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 Z! p& e3 y ?# X% I
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
0 `0 j: t w. R spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward6 S. l v! Q3 O1 l
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
. j6 u5 v6 C" _7 K following two years of deterioration.
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