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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC + u q+ ?4 Q# {
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
6 x* k) P6 Z+ w4 S+ t1 @3 Zmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
- a- P0 b/ g6 Lgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
; h- S' D+ U* r c+ Eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.9 ?9 |6 n+ j1 [, y4 n, i/ T# J
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
, Y+ j+ }3 ~) h! H" t* lsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
( b( v- {. u% P5 ^2 Q; L$ J5 z3 wimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
) A. Q( K! q$ k' `# |! W$ qmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 R3 p' d0 }) U5 k* j
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is: i0 o; [/ z, q6 d# `
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- n* \; O5 M! H
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have" h+ I( m* V2 r9 H; z+ Q3 [
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
& J: l r5 q) n! X z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 f% D0 \7 p3 l4 iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
: X! Q2 ?3 ~+ k1 Jhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
* L$ o% C4 q4 F* L4 n+ {" @$ MAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 @2 |; K4 t4 f* s2 V- m+ m' g+ l' k' r: N
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and- x6 q4 Z% }- A4 Y& a4 W5 r
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
I! C4 i4 Z- P8 ?8 m According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets# \/ t+ J9 A; I0 p; {4 a# N
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in# t8 U9 u" d9 N' l j
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, ~6 c$ q: w. C; t4 khistorically depressed levels.
@6 k, {/ x! C6 d. Y. L7 S Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost- ]% T' N$ A4 C# s& M
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
- @9 g2 k$ j8 d6 C4 i+ g" \prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the! L* d* s- c4 w' b2 q
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 _7 e$ @+ G# x( i+ p9 qenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
/ y5 B8 r. h* o5 w4 omonths ahead," added Hogue.. ?: U/ J( f2 c; G, C
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest& U6 U2 q) y3 B( Y% B) s
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary1 s. X) \# q' }$ I
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.3 U- f6 ?% N0 n* @. G& W( n
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for9 Y( Y3 z9 C/ q' {9 F$ A3 W
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' P& E: I1 t/ H4 W0 T$ `( O
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only+ b- `4 Q0 E0 F2 c
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
: h# [1 N6 i0 j; U4 I The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
* Q3 D% @0 F: T4 P' Mbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 C; |1 P! E3 G9 Nbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
, g5 M2 Z+ _1 G& o3 ]# yincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
/ y3 y1 b+ o3 O. @condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
; d/ K+ Z/ c( X$ `For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership1 s- q9 q# e. n& h9 W1 \# ^
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
* R" w8 Q" P# O3 o. lper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.. Z$ ^9 H* |4 n; h1 v& i
% m* Q3 q# V. Q6 c U: x! z. ]1 n <<
L# V7 T' P1 h% f Highlights from across Canada:$ y- s* h9 j% w) T0 @0 @3 Q
9 c B: Z3 y! }& @0 _8 f5 A N - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has7 u( V [/ W" Q' k, u; Q
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing7 r) z5 V0 _, O; w8 ~1 a( h
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
6 K E2 q2 {4 J5 b! h4 w only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
) C! s* L3 Y$ ^0 l: k! E since about the middle of 2007.
; @ l- @: m- G( @# T0 Q - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the, W6 U" k+ e1 H# l
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
- C1 f% t4 P4 k6 v) P# } decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
" Q: M+ [3 E# }2 O. D" B" Z largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely# U! Y: T1 y, ] D
poor affordability levels.; y, G/ r8 `- F# p
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the5 c5 Q% b8 d2 G( v" U0 _/ D
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and9 J. v: G' K, E+ ]( `* F, ?8 ?
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
! o1 P- g- h/ h Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to: [- U' {$ S( {, y0 z
minimize any downside risks.' P7 p$ Y! y; d$ j( b0 h
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market: j4 [' _8 w8 C3 w2 u* u9 G
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is" m8 w6 a. ~; I+ d5 m3 X2 b( v
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 \% l5 h4 ]' k# {5 D5 u8 H
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
, O1 ~# ?6 K- A2 W! p; R being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.( o6 P6 g( m/ _4 d
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& T$ f4 ]( P* Z; j Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus6 N' v1 X _2 A O
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ n6 p' I0 \* s6 ?
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
- G. D7 f/ P, E7 E' I% ?# Q0 s ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only7 ~. S; N( ]3 C! m+ w1 Z
modestly in recent years.
$ X7 ^2 |% }* o) Q - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the ` }* ?% @8 v& \2 l$ p" Q
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot p8 d6 j/ P0 I* V
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward) U7 T6 E! k7 n8 \5 ?
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! H' _- p9 T9 g* I
following two years of deterioration.4 S0 q' k! c6 E$ w- ?
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