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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ! ~' H9 ]8 d) j, C! U+ |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
: J0 I8 O5 u$ Omiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive8 q2 H# q+ M7 n x1 `
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* }9 q& I7 [) n+ F Zaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: U& k! |) V% T "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( L% J* o8 b3 a
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
8 V/ k: P2 ?4 E5 l9 g1 n+ T) Mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" m8 B2 f0 T2 _( }0 ?# s9 r& emeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ d8 d) g0 P* N1 w& F RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
( c# j$ V7 @* Lworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
' j% M- Z- }! { y4 _' P5 owhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 Z1 k8 b0 `7 ~. X; T
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.( D O4 p+ z; @; N; s' Z
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
# Z; G H5 q0 }0 aproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
* V2 o. t) D1 r# k/ Fhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.5 X" O9 a9 J5 m5 ~- |* l' V
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
; P- B5 I: R' l# [standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) q2 P2 F3 K; @" t& ^the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent./ c0 m1 N# }& G! c* m1 ~- f8 y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
2 f/ V, H r6 v' F/ L. Xmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 r* d* n- P2 c' X+ p0 Y" hthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
; U1 F6 i# g8 P- Fhistorically depressed levels.- p! w: U t0 H4 ?* e) n( T% Q
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
7 I) \9 f( q; _( t3 F5 ?of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
7 z O, u9 B1 k# G( B0 m' Wprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
' h; a7 v6 A, L, u$ Zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: _! S2 r" Y* P g7 Lenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the w; i3 @# V% J
months ahead," added Hogue.
- @8 _8 D) R$ v/ U$ J RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest! D' B$ x8 N4 K# |9 q, j
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* ?9 o& I# a+ Q- }! T
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ u: E& q' b) m% g The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for p7 e% r0 ^! ~" o
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
( r/ D( C# o) ^4 Y$ kcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
" D6 L. }- h' X0 _takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.5 t7 W H2 N8 \
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
" w( I T+ e) d) S" Xbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
. f; d7 v) N! l: lbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" C# s# d# L/ @' M% z8 K/ cincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard! L" s; n' {1 d# G
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.# ^: _, \5 J$ j! G$ L% T+ S6 [
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
# l Z" a3 g% Y/ @! o' scosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
: e) u" k& ]4 D( k/ Bper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
6 i4 N3 g0 t* G- u) \/ [
6 m% Q, u) d/ L <<
4 z: o7 r3 [4 A9 z& ] Highlights from across Canada:
( |2 G3 x3 b' Y; z2 H$ N! I
' \% |% A9 P4 f+ B: y" M - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has7 j7 d3 W4 k( p& O7 w$ ~
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing7 |8 k# h, J0 B7 E. A8 w3 W0 t% K
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
, W e3 D- |3 {. Y% a only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
3 N$ P3 r8 [# }5 b; R+ p: a0 i6 v since about the middle of 2007.
7 M. X. k a( K, f% s - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% q( |7 M3 u* K, A- A& ?
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 X9 T0 z% y- N1 |1 H
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' X7 g3 T* F% ^( r* \3 B% T largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
+ C# l+ B+ ]. V" _ X& C poor affordability levels.: H! n8 L1 X8 A3 ]$ \, y0 C
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the8 ~0 X# n* |7 y4 D! n
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and( U7 z) |! j/ ]2 P3 l
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.: L5 N/ r* }- _% @+ i! c: Q! z5 p
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to- n( }! S$ S, B6 m4 S& W% R
minimize any downside risks.
$ H2 Z' r% M1 o9 X - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
* J" d" n6 f0 j- h) l! d w conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
& Y" o+ w3 m- |3 l4 Q unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
- O8 B8 y% S, S) s. O 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly( _. c3 ~, _1 F3 w1 H- S) B `. U2 q
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
: ^; a9 L: _2 U; E1 v - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in: {) h* k7 Q2 l) T) B( _1 w/ i
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus, I( Y7 g: @( U. K
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* {/ T/ O6 ^ ~9 b) n0 H7 E; J
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 Y3 ` \! a+ l+ _
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
! f% J2 v/ W, }# X0 W& ^3 Q modestly in recent years.; g* O8 J0 A/ R& v4 B
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ {, N9 ?; Q4 e) t general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
4 @, D, W" u7 w! D5 P spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
1 M0 G' E) G% [3 c; c/ n price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability& `9 e0 B% g) m% ]
following two years of deterioration.
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