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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 4 k" ~) R1 G: x K$ Q- [$ K
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the( }; z3 D1 F4 S. h' O2 V
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive3 F% ~& A; U( u# m- e
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
7 v1 y3 D5 [. baccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
* x; `+ D) I7 _1 ^' b( R "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
# |1 l* o* j0 ~said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 ?$ [3 x8 m. G
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability; F$ `0 e; ^8 y# F) G
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! P6 R* @. T6 I5 l6 Z# B8 M
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
8 Q) }: e' l0 mworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,+ l d. S5 Z H0 L. b
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
/ w7 `% l& o0 K7 f \6 d4 z& xsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
5 }3 F* J) ^4 L( v5 u( o The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the$ V3 z! C& C' u) u# g2 `& ]! Y
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 F& o8 |3 B- ^# A4 ]
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 h% i, W6 H0 J
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# b- n; G, A: @/ e8 y
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and/ A, q2 K3 I. h6 g7 O
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.2 F+ w8 E8 x2 C: P7 |( V$ O
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
! W7 z o( X% K, B0 \may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
' B/ B& B7 }2 N( H% W8 Ythe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
% t& Q9 _0 P4 N4 a$ m* m) jhistorically depressed levels.
) y# _. C, z5 Z* n6 S Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
( ~: m0 V' g( ^# Y% I* O) ?of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ q+ H3 h2 w9 J/ o; cprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the2 z8 @/ [8 O% G R8 b& T0 U
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 a& v, h" W3 k2 M% Venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% Y/ I; z2 i. `' `% h3 D0 g" L
months ahead," added Hogue.) G; E& W6 d+ n! {0 G
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest! [' V5 O' T8 I( Y/ l: C; w
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
2 {; X- s6 a% R, f42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent./ L9 F( Y3 R5 S% S: I9 s# @
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
' f( n, {# C1 `( n/ V- fa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
. z% @; \% k/ A7 g$ @# C& P# Scities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
7 s& w/ i3 w/ [8 btakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. x, Z: p) k7 W e L The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
- \! r& ^, q! N! \/ z2 s$ r/ n; @ rbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property1 ?/ b1 Y- c$ I" [' D
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
+ w7 D0 D- F& r/ Fincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
/ T( B8 U2 ]! P7 {& Y- Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
5 P& _6 r v$ H/ }, P' OFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership5 b7 U5 U; I& b
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
; |5 A5 g; x5 z2 D3 R( F6 H5 Wper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income." w; h, U* i1 g+ b
0 e, |, `5 a+ U$ x9 s
<<
2 ]. u% C' I, Q Highlights from across Canada:$ T2 [/ n* k. O7 v! x
+ @( q3 V% C: i$ ] - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has7 H% N$ j3 N, k% Z: S+ c3 H
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
X4 l. z* L3 D! R- b home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound) w H7 {& m) E- m8 b9 o4 P+ }
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track# j' z( K9 N( A& g( d' o
since about the middle of 2007.
- [0 m7 d- ^( ?/ ` - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
7 }5 r# ^6 f. ?/ [. b9 x9 N frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
( \1 N: m+ n& p- F2 A decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
1 [5 S. ~- m% _ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely, |3 [5 ~; m: C2 y/ N/ |
poor affordability levels.
2 {7 F( X2 a1 n9 ^, b) j9 G( S% s - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the$ w+ I; i! ] E: `' T+ ?
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
- A- {( e* d# j6 W prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.5 `% q& U* k7 _% P. m$ N; D1 h
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to$ N4 _0 z5 M" O5 G# B$ A( @' ^
minimize any downside risks.0 R( c) B p/ L! M" |, Z
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
8 ~# \3 Z" Z! M4 t" f4 ~ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is7 X" E, d+ k. q8 S# L6 O
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early: L* ?, W) Y4 I) R6 C
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' [. A7 L4 Y& I+ W; ` being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.: t5 o% C/ L# ?% ]
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% @! Y9 o" p# n) h; K% ?" V' [) m7 u
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
" X/ W7 h$ r" F4 S far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# Z( @- X+ S5 _2 F reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
4 Z0 W9 a4 Q7 \, y ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
* ` T7 B9 {$ _ modestly in recent years.' Z2 c) o" V) b x' W
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the1 ^6 [: r( o- q- w- J
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
' G3 N7 V* S8 v$ D' Z spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
$ ~, J" v& R0 ]. j5 x% S price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability3 u, F i L- W
following two years of deterioration.* f# P1 l' T# g
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