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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ) f8 I' T. _' a' x4 F( Q! \
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the/ N7 X4 G2 k! U6 ~: r
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive8 D% J* w4 u( e% m
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
9 l, j) Z) x8 O2 r5 _& paccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.% H; n9 C9 W; H# a6 `
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
% h* X% o$ m* P# I% n' hsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 `; v& `. g, ]0 L @improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) L( e5 A$ ]6 h! J2 O
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.": {- B% l; R- T9 i r1 }
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! N4 D, J4 Y) C; ?# T3 jworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
6 x9 I' N- p3 D5 _# Nwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 Z: s5 l0 Y. @) wsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
/ b5 B O1 j* `# x! g The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the! z; q, {, [" i8 U! J
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- D w: h( o1 {; X7 Jhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( A4 Z8 [" b. x9 P
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
- ~* ?1 }( C1 O; j; u4 ostandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
" V& ~' q9 ~. \+ |the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.0 k4 [/ B& B# E9 X7 Q7 ~$ i& ?* U e
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets" `# ]4 Z' f `. P: a
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in/ z9 e& E( S, m
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
6 ^1 d( Q! t$ R; S' Chistorically depressed levels.
6 z' l/ @# E/ l- A Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
8 G+ u6 T5 J, J K) G: ^9 |of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House: q2 R% w, R+ W, z3 Y0 l* O8 H0 f( c
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# M: p, Z4 z9 N3 J
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 `$ H% p8 S2 Q7 X7 x3 k
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the A3 l8 }. S+ a3 B% M
months ahead," added Hogue.
3 C( P- Y1 F7 ~0 \; Y' N RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 }* j" k" {' v7 e9 K
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 D# t* X, e$ v* N& [" C& R
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.& m( h* i! {3 L; L- l
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
4 ~; o% ]2 L, {8 da broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
. L0 Z/ G9 t! X0 J3 _( fcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% ?( h3 K- {$ z3 V4 D7 q
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.% u- ^9 m2 X( F6 O9 `% Y5 T: m
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# g1 E) D+ r% O. }* Y' ?+ _
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
' @$ Q3 y/ o' G$ xbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented$ {: ~8 _! h) k7 F
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
! ]/ V! B- `. P; Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.% s2 r* R0 r w/ \( ^
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership9 F$ [+ Y8 w% @5 o
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
; R0 I/ f2 n$ ?8 ^per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 F: A% ^& v0 e- U1 R. {
* U7 ~( H. M# S: J6 o( R <<
+ @1 D7 [$ v/ o6 L Highlights from across Canada:0 I% ?; q$ ?6 G7 e
4 a. P6 Q3 D% e% x; z0 K
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
( r; \) ?5 ^: T: D intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 `0 S2 n, Z# M: \$ h" t; Y
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
+ Q5 p/ f# O' L+ I! A1 w only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
) Q; O) |4 U6 `1 p8 S& j since about the middle of 2007.6 q1 k( Y) m5 k: p T+ H( O
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the: R" R( K8 Y3 h) ~3 A2 f
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to$ H+ M% u' z3 A7 B7 P9 ^1 D- j
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still( V' b; q1 q& t; p. c
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: g# p# c( ^4 K7 V poor affordability levels.2 R: X- s6 V/ F0 j
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the$ S( X5 `+ @' ~
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and3 ?6 p0 f2 p9 S& d9 [ k
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
2 z! P# W. p5 T1 t; U Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to& [9 g7 G- o& L4 z) P* ]6 l6 v
minimize any downside risks.' T- _, K% X* C0 c2 p
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
7 w& ?1 `! X' Z6 G {( O conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is% f. m, Z* S8 a# N
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
q" m- k" r% J* l, J! U 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 J' J8 j! M8 {. ^
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ |+ x0 c: O2 w+ d% I v
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
. k& p$ M! b8 p+ q Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus+ ]$ S) d5 n( z3 D! O4 }
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
: q4 V" R- I( E" O0 j( R7 D) `1 F! ? reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
5 w. Z U# R |' V t ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only" R$ x# ]5 Z- F( z6 z# T2 y! O
modestly in recent years.
3 a0 E+ a6 q* x' v - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the @, f" g2 U' b8 W U7 O. k$ Y
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# z6 |5 @% Z+ X% t8 I: n b spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
: a) Y# y G( D7 T' A# W0 i price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability% K* F5 ^5 l0 E$ A0 ~& @& K
following two years of deterioration.+ d) J+ t( I( ^* L3 L
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