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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
) X, ^( M' }; _5 i, c) | TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
# _. ?) S- y k; smiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive6 t* `! F4 T0 U3 y
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,. J I- ]1 i; ?" B1 F z
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.5 b) M" r7 G5 P8 R
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
. a! b7 [9 M2 q* M" ?. ^said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is) n. }, l# C2 x
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability: w; D2 a$ v6 h. f
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
" R. \ |# T: A RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
2 w+ {4 x. }2 v' g+ w5 F* G* Oworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,: b$ E- |/ p0 n. |6 Y6 e( c
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have8 }7 i+ N: b7 N# K% c" P
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.5 K5 z1 ?5 m' D1 {
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
+ N/ y, c, l/ G6 Oproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. G# d' p" E# v: fhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
" U# @9 e# i$ Y; ?% ]/ @& l, F2 CAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
6 H8 H% X! M. Q: @4 [( S6 I* G% ystandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and( c: r8 h( A/ t& g- ]1 ~. [8 _
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
4 F4 q q& P" d$ W% J' L" c8 `7 `5 T According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
; L+ B3 k( f1 g7 a9 N2 @; H: Umay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in5 i% u# f( r( J$ [1 S
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
. E! N% Y' I v# G3 @historically depressed levels.
, e* ^: ?0 g Q2 H. a1 U Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 l3 y: e8 B9 Z7 ^
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
7 m z0 n8 \! `prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& M7 @% w# L( g: Z6 @hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
$ R o: G+ P& s7 F% penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the$ e+ o- g; U+ f! c/ x) l
months ahead," added Hogue.
' }3 L1 u2 f7 H4 b6 I% h9 g# M RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest: L6 y9 n# h# n7 L- w; }
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
0 M- \; l0 m4 G42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.1 \- L, [; g/ {6 }) e2 {
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for, ~: ~ X) U# W K! q
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 ~. s9 M! B: X: F+ scities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only" M4 c2 W# E4 [7 d( \; ]( e$ f1 Q
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.$ u, ?4 O; y% C; }& ]% H
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is/ X/ X U0 S" C
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property! ^7 }6 r$ l& T. D0 P
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
( G4 k+ Y) u+ w! z% Y. `7 {including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard$ W; x% \# _8 r7 S# f
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
5 U% d( P4 o8 K! V# v9 |! C( ^1 z2 TFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership' V1 d3 Z- J8 k( O) B
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 506 @6 F. A0 h- E
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.. ~/ d- J0 y8 t2 b' A: ^
* f5 A, u4 ?$ @ <<
! t9 y& Z/ N' I; n+ u# \ Highlights from across Canada:% k, v& y3 w" f5 U
# X$ q+ R% x, h) Z - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
6 e" A* v; m0 g$ ^3 \9 A6 Z intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing& C" L" ~- f- H( U$ ~
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
. ? u2 @) d: O, G# V0 Q- `" Q9 j only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track _" I8 K: e: ~: b+ N2 R3 ]
since about the middle of 2007.0 |' u( ^& M9 ~
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
% N1 b' D# J0 J2 w frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to% \' X' t, q: r* M ]6 _
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% u1 @1 G/ A& ?) [8 l' k largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ p! G# _ j/ q& {- |1 p
poor affordability levels.: A% f+ @+ o C2 |. k
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the9 E. I. `: F d3 [! I
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and( P! \. R/ ?# X q4 H
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.0 m0 J# R7 u3 r- b
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to/ p1 @2 m% B% E$ z; l. o: e5 T
minimize any downside risks.5 K$ Y8 t8 @9 L4 T
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
) ~6 l( Z' X; \) D conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
( G( L \3 E% q$ V+ Y1 c unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
2 A* k- q. z2 S7 ~" S3 m) ?. G 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly# R% a# k1 t0 X9 j, D4 h6 x
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.1 m1 `. }- A4 O' ]( g
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! L- b+ A. U9 D. `- [0 p: f) W Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 L# o( k- \& }* ]+ B1 `
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up3 t1 }" z2 x: x; `
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 L' u0 F5 t. y
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
8 o, ?- g7 A6 Z modestly in recent years.3 ]' c1 s3 D2 k0 @& y* t
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
0 i: m e0 I' U: }( [5 u general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
* y$ l7 |; t" l, ~& \/ f. ^9 t# g6 R spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward9 Y4 }- L2 w$ T) I! N9 S; M* Q: r
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 d* \# v: w4 s! T
following two years of deterioration.
; w8 F4 Y3 R, |$ ]7 _5 A >> |
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