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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
* T- S, a# a+ w TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
8 d" T; H4 ~4 l3 P1 rmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive" |. @/ w" u( V; {9 w
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,+ ^; |1 ^+ x, N+ |2 q& c( c; p8 }
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
" A+ F% P" N7 {9 U: Z4 U "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
! w- N' ?& f, Q, D" t, p0 A5 s9 Tsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
$ t7 a$ p: T) o0 ?! nimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& [3 F! \" i( ?5 W0 d2 zmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 E T: m+ q8 u2 w- k8 I RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is- l! M# w0 _7 H) F
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: J/ z: @. U. V1 D5 Swhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) {6 ]8 ?$ o' g9 ~& tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" Y5 O1 {4 z/ _1 e- a The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
* _0 k4 k4 X- Z8 ]+ ~) I! iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a ?& S A( c# ]6 A
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
, A7 R- {" T! t( Q* v GAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the& `5 E* ]. C7 ]" O9 [
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
% o5 G3 j( h4 q: _( ethe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.6 k; w6 [% A% o
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
$ m b" C) g! f1 b) `may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
; z; u6 U' [& V3 t# n! Z5 W1 ]the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at+ _, g V8 E) P/ l
historically depressed levels.1 |) c3 ~' F! k
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 K8 K% H- E3 a& mof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
( R2 ?8 h2 j4 G0 q2 M( Z8 L: Z/ oprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the% j, F" x: V: s1 S0 W* {
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This! B. k/ b# L) j: ]* N H* J: g4 `
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* F: w# _9 x; f& l
months ahead," added Hogue.
3 x3 ]% D5 ?4 o/ c RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest+ G" ~1 L, U3 Z6 m
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" b, M) \- f' X/ N3 V3 Y
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.- ?4 U: H/ X- O' f! R: B
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for' C `" w# n: p
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 D: T( | N$ _- B4 C
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
# ?- o! S7 `% _+ I Ptakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
1 D) [% X. ]9 D& K8 s& U, x The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is) B+ j& G! f) T: f( B; k9 ?$ R4 q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
P" I3 j3 c" N# ?! ~* C0 sbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
, P D: q9 k- M6 G% `6 R" ^including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
" w+ d1 {$ M' r T3 D3 _4 {condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.+ E: U6 A4 s, k1 [# Y9 @* p5 E* j* q9 u
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: n; p! Q5 q* C6 }9 _% l
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
+ n; c0 M3 Q1 x* `. p) Aper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
6 Y- F5 e1 b' [1 \& O2 m+ n7 g0 O6 ~# f; |' n5 o* C
<<
- M7 S& O+ H, ]6 d* z Highlights from across Canada:+ h0 d0 O1 ?; ~
4 ^1 ?5 ~/ T4 C4 _9 t, H
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has1 Z$ j2 @0 U6 A' @: [" u4 _% I, T
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" K. a5 \% K9 u9 s: O
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
9 M" J, i( ~7 Q6 N. y only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 o2 a+ b6 a6 a0 z; w' U- z$ \ since about the middle of 2007.- O: v" u$ R8 r8 V
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
, g1 a/ M+ ~* ~7 V frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 U5 U% ]+ a& O" |& \& i: u
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still' n8 M4 U; \% [1 K
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely* p- s1 d- p4 ?! \; y$ x" N
poor affordability levels.% Y' V6 x7 e' y6 L) s2 F
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the( m+ Z9 c Q3 O8 s6 Q0 @) m: m7 ^
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
' p7 M+ m! M. l0 b; }4 O0 a prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.7 S* i5 P, a$ \7 L
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ \4 O( G6 r4 p: f
minimize any downside risks./ @) s3 a+ t+ g
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
5 ?# ~" k' Q9 |) q. A# N0 x conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is2 Y$ |2 }8 x3 U; m
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
- R0 F) r$ F2 P/ ]0 r) n0 \ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 R1 K8 g% S \2 z% t' ]4 |$ \ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
# |& p W: j# m% ? - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
% t& U% c1 R F& A* \2 c Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
! w# ^2 K& H3 w- z; V far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
3 x7 ?. Y( U2 o! E/ y reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
2 F0 B; k6 h" O: y% I ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, H* d; m1 |: {7 o& L7 j1 |& `& Y modestly in recent years.
4 t& ?% F# K6 t# x3 Z# S# y6 A* C/ \ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
* l0 e, Z. Z4 x( y general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot, B9 i( V% j, n* p( e
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward# p k$ g/ b5 W% T6 C& t
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
- M& I. Z5 o; g& { following two years of deterioration.
# V$ M# p, r4 X% G4 m4 O% S >> |
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