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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
1 V0 E/ m: W# Y+ A TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 `3 U& O5 O9 {
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
" O6 S4 @" P+ P+ w( e k! ?2 R! Ygains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 G) |, i6 S. k6 k- G# y+ D
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
6 q& c b3 M6 [* J1 q, F "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 e, _: i" W5 s: q7 y: _said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
. g. X$ B( c; U/ T# q: p uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability& G$ {$ U" v. F+ C" s5 S: H% ^! X
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."& S: Y9 r/ d9 H' F
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
& A: N% N0 w+ b8 ~ a1 dworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,' u: w7 ~4 J1 L: s Q2 j
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have7 j2 G. K/ ]0 Z1 {8 z2 n2 c5 q
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
. g& O% Z+ ^8 L% ` The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
& y' X& m e" j! Q4 T/ ]proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a/ D) S. U5 b9 V8 j& [: Y2 i
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
' E4 F# {5 ^# T" xAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the9 l4 o/ S! b& K# \' l
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
I) A& q% d0 i j; Zthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. @2 n( C* l0 y0 ^( d& s% Z7 q
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 @2 k* C8 K0 p2 u
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in* ~+ l6 H' P& x6 \
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, p7 o1 A: [3 }1 F% ]$ Hhistorically depressed levels.
5 X; ~9 a3 i( @5 r e0 A Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
- T( w* K4 u$ M- w% V3 b7 m# fof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House# Z2 V& u# `1 }. F; V
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the( o H9 s8 M9 t! A0 e
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
( e9 `( u8 r8 [: B: jenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the& m2 d B5 {6 M6 t
months ahead," added Hogue.
3 G' J3 p1 ~9 U! g RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
- Q8 S. b% z- Ucities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary) u) N; p. d+ K: |8 e; h. c) \0 u
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.4 Y; ?+ ?, \( b: R8 {
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
- e/ [3 f! |7 m5 \4 Xa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: H( B3 V0 ~* k' n9 ?1 _# xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only, j- \7 p# ~1 A0 F" D) @
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
3 d% j- m" o; ~9 O- D" | The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
# z: ?6 m8 `+ v/ z X$ D5 U8 M: ybased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) W5 \! Q" S( L' @7 ]% Zbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* u. ~/ Q4 E) T! d6 J4 p8 M
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard& @9 [* U$ v* z+ p% \! Y2 _
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
" m* b! K2 Z$ F3 `1 RFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
: r6 r. O- j, J1 ]2 B# Z$ Z. y) Qcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50+ ^2 W" H& M9 f
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.# M; P; U" ]4 R* Y
* I+ s! ]1 u" u" ~
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+ n" K3 L* J+ R9 ?. W Highlights from across Canada:
( }- G. S; j4 y, ~4 u+ ]" c& C
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
/ K; I' I, S) m5 b Y5 j: Q intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
1 o& ^0 S7 r( E" y0 Y0 b# N home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
" Z( Q( b8 v: w" [# ~1 V+ s4 r only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track. w Z; }* D! B+ n. k/ j
since about the middle of 2007.
: r' z" ]. D9 p( B, Q - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the+ E) n( a% ?( e8 o2 k6 m
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ l1 d4 P; W$ N2 O1 Y, } decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
+ N2 _6 M7 l% i2 Y- k4 { } largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
7 ~+ y4 v) O: {$ i9 O) T/ A7 ~ poor affordability levels.
0 ]- I5 @1 s+ T# s1 g - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the- F- z$ i' _/ E: j: S7 d6 r$ ?
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and6 d9 o0 F: o* Y# B! `$ f8 V! @" N
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
[4 O0 \- s0 } B- ^; a4 m Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
) `0 r3 Q# r, X3 ^4 e& n/ v minimize any downside risks.: s6 i) h- S9 E7 L4 O
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market3 _* o% p- r) D7 U7 S" x7 f5 a
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is9 B2 H/ S- l* z. S) w
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early& f' b- q2 N) s6 n1 `9 [6 p1 `
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
7 K2 A; a3 N7 p8 |2 Q being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
0 `8 I0 S) @. l - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
+ b$ o' x' N* ^/ l Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
; }! |2 D) ` s far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
) ]* v9 V/ S: a/ ^! b3 _) ? reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be2 e7 E, r X1 v" s9 i3 n
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
. s; Z; }. d: {0 k4 T$ r e1 J2 }3 v modestly in recent years.
$ E% o4 `7 Q9 p) z' L - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
; u; U; x) O% Z* t! J0 M4 V' a7 a) w+ Z general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot$ A l- \) {- I4 }
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
8 [- ^5 T3 F9 p$ C; D price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability# V4 w; o- d" @" @( J) f
following two years of deterioration.. d' z0 g- v6 v7 {5 `
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