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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC : a2 I0 d% n+ q' E( V
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 |4 F' t; U5 B/ O4 u
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
! Y. P( c! M; G% V% Vgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
5 Y1 g& t* q6 w' D- h) O) qaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
; t+ j @3 O8 j/ s' q "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"- F5 ]) q# h" u' F
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is3 o( a1 m" j+ Y6 u! V5 h
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability& p" W4 O# M, E0 @* V$ Z
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.": I- w( G* L. [ ~! K
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
( Z/ `! ^& v% Y, g& S- Uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: W1 O$ y% D4 T$ W- F* mwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have5 h! Y/ D; R" Y: m* }- d. U5 K
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
' x( i" }# b- O7 R5 }- y- P1 L The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the( L& ^0 O. b+ U; _* X
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a8 `) |% g: ^' s" S
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.4 r& [1 Q5 y2 H! v( m) ~9 k, r
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# b& p# v% B* r- z
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) E, v; G4 H4 F2 \0 Wthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ m8 U7 j: ]3 K% t3 X3 n9 W
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets8 j9 T& d" j( @3 o5 ]8 j, `
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in9 `5 G% C, }! q0 B, b
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
2 j% \' z- A( f6 {0 O/ Uhistorically depressed levels.
# Y! b2 e- p4 d3 g3 L4 R Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost# P2 N* Q1 Y, u1 [, E: U9 Q
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 }( O' f; ?' |* ~; ~; Z' Yprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
; u6 |$ ^) v% x9 w* p0 W; Y& B6 h" Chands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
5 X' o/ ]5 @0 ~enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
/ Q! l7 L7 K& b" U% g5 p3 d8 ymonths ahead," added Hogue.
4 K2 z; X; A- z! o2 }: B! A& | RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest0 |# @4 B4 e5 _* r* F
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary. r+ @: J2 m+ _( U
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
6 d5 l3 B W: _9 z The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
, V' \, f/ i$ oa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 C" A# ?! _* Ccities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only4 k5 ~/ K1 h. f9 a
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
8 @0 ` G D6 G The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is2 `) ]. V8 _6 Y8 i& L3 e9 c7 W1 f+ h
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ E `7 k' T- Y! B4 Qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented" n' D% ~8 V m$ h3 i
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 b' _7 O0 Q8 i2 b Icondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 ?( x1 W9 n7 @% l4 Y: c7 o5 iFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership# o0 h' Z" B0 [3 j% v+ [
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50, F! c3 R( v8 ]
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
9 M1 q! }) i2 J3 L
1 a% ^" Q" S& K <<
' T- N5 R1 \$ z. u5 b& i Highlights from across Canada:; |; f; B' u% g3 S: q x) Y
# ]% q" Q; Q% u5 i, { - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has2 @' X9 Q; e' n: k; X( Q
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing' ?9 b" X' ?+ N- t
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& E3 G: C: s1 w0 X+ j+ I only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
! b6 c3 T* o/ A* u4 ] since about the middle of 2007.# Y- C9 T1 U: E3 _0 t
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the9 g# B0 T8 u% A3 c; C* K
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
$ u6 z6 T: X( O2 u- i decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
$ e& v) Z5 ]/ i/ T$ L' X largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
3 B a! _' |, P, @, D$ E; v( L5 i! l poor affordability levels.
% h7 \2 a* g1 W: f! u" z) o/ } t - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 _7 S% X3 e: l0 Q
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and5 [# x% O2 V: \" C5 `: f
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.; j) @' Z: Q+ _, F0 {4 V
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
`, r* f6 F5 x" C minimize any downside risks.% w6 U- a+ ^7 \: ^2 n% T1 P0 ]8 t
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
, i" ~. B* ~2 H; C conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is+ T6 F7 D+ K6 X! I
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early# v' |0 c4 v/ M/ ^ f6 w8 y. D3 F
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly, y1 f1 d4 O) i
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
! h8 b2 n* I: o% r- t - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in$ U7 b+ H. ?8 _) f4 Z) _" j
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
" \5 C& N) U1 }$ k4 r; x4 L+ J3 Z far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# |. m0 n1 [: }6 [# G9 j. f: J reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
6 Y4 O V; s6 V9 u: q ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
; z7 [0 J" P* \( ^ modestly in recent years.3 a# {5 v$ q ~, ^6 _9 P
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the& K7 J s9 S3 K% p" h* @
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 a" r1 K' U2 K- s1 C
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" A% G# q+ e ? G( r
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability7 J* }% f& s( {; Z% D B
following two years of deterioration.7 a" |, i' |% l4 m$ v
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