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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC * x: G" _: o3 P& I0 |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
* i. l8 c/ }6 p8 mmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
/ m8 b y2 V7 x" ]! h3 igains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
# w6 C; _- c" \0 }according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
1 s: l* J p; y$ i+ P "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 ?" o& A/ Y2 @said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
2 J' q1 H4 ?- d# U7 W8 Gimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 P) R" e0 }' j9 i/ }; r7 d, jmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 E p( n% ^9 {7 V4 R
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
; L y; z$ j* e0 y6 q0 Gworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 a$ n' L% y; A" R, t5 {% S8 B- qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 Q- a% S, |7 x$ V
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
6 G: ^ o+ a* T. f$ L3 l' _ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
& X0 o$ W# q! p( X& m, X! }8 ^proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a/ X$ d0 ^) F" T0 o6 H8 D
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.- e# w2 T9 D) v, C% _6 X7 w: b
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' [. F9 _( [7 ^4 @' U7 ]' ^standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
/ M/ \6 C4 L# j/ ?0 N9 D0 }the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
7 g# G! k+ T. G According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
6 V( Y( @) x& q) `4 A5 b0 c' wmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
/ c; n. h- g! h* \! Bthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at; R2 v5 H% }% X6 {8 |& ?- A
historically depressed levels.
( S: z* |# M, b9 Q5 z H' j Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
- m, @% p9 q/ U$ ^! sof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House2 W: v! H7 i: N# h% P2 Z& Z
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
! t9 x4 g& K2 C$ u& P+ P2 R# u( @hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% P4 C/ i6 t4 H0 C# ~8 L j7 c. P \enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
; G, G* Q3 b: {9 l) omonths ahead," added Hogue.% ~( t+ N/ ~2 S+ M$ O3 S
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest( c* w4 d5 f$ o; ~
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
- ] h8 E3 o% y" y7 r42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.( x. h/ d* I; {7 z ^$ j
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ b- p8 N4 {0 C) c# f3 Ga broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
3 a& y8 k: H$ P7 _9 Ccities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only3 `0 c( p4 T- F& f
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
! Q d; I% ]& ^' A! |/ w! ^ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# ]4 m: B# N, A& g7 v, I
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
3 A# _! b5 R# zbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented- Z* C J3 h, J9 Q7 o) T
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
; o8 K6 u# q- u) }+ Icondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
$ s _0 v9 T9 a1 L; CFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership, v4 O+ J3 f& j
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
2 N, N9 @2 X$ |+ B5 W* Lper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
5 x, E1 O, _6 _4 n# R+ D' M$ R7 Z3 W# K2 ~/ N
<<
: p3 L' l. T3 B, l2 Z; { Highlights from across Canada:+ g0 K* Z2 @- S! t& @4 D E6 m) g
1 b- W# L: `1 A$ Q" z - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has: _7 `# w6 C8 A* U
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
0 R0 R* ?% G: S h7 F7 H% D home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound! H5 E. H8 p' w# E! E
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
4 ^" S% K8 n' j6 N9 d% }4 G* _ since about the middle of 2007.
8 G& w, ~8 f1 B) B* w# p: E - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
' [' [" q8 Q9 P$ `0 j9 H% Z" [ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
9 t: x+ H: G" _% f* @6 \* s' U decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
/ [8 B. N+ @- T3 w& ^7 x largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely# L3 I: _: R9 r, d( h3 |
poor affordability levels.( K8 f, D( E. K \
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the- _6 b/ R9 V/ |, B7 s8 J
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 J& d7 w4 n" y5 Y' q" B1 F1 y
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.& d" B2 C4 O9 ]
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
) k7 u( ^$ r5 Y; F: ` }% H minimize any downside risks.
$ H# h% D' P: R - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
" X8 V5 X; _" R4 J, t% L# c' P" O1 c conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
6 ]+ G, X: |9 W1 F unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ |7 B- w: n6 y% J. a( _
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 R1 P- l& D+ G9 e+ O0 ~' G being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.# a. k7 X2 g: `2 B# \# J7 Y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# c+ ~% r, n! N% \ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
$ w8 Y) Z, l$ ^! g; W far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up4 | T1 i$ I+ |- |
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! w2 o- e" a6 i, k5 m U8 ~- t ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, h8 O: m4 f# a3 X" x
modestly in recent years.3 x; l4 C% s# o T( r
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
6 J. F8 g5 J" X5 r. @ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot6 F. \- i2 r2 Q: o
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. p2 J% h5 ?1 N5 m3 Y price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability z9 j) i# f% r$ F* [
following two years of deterioration.2 H: A2 C: [7 t. L) R$ ]* S
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