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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 7 U9 T0 v6 u n
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
0 I7 I, @. x- J% F" t+ `middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
: R7 b7 i, E4 @# y% k& X) L0 w* b& }gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,6 o5 {2 U# J) l/ k. A# v
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
( d9 m/ R) R3 `, C( y9 _. }6 S! h "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
, A) u4 I1 c8 C7 wsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
. I5 W/ ^/ N, D) O% p' Wimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability( M& p7 {5 C t4 C4 {
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
: j$ @* C# y5 F+ I6 Q8 E RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is% D$ S( B/ G8 Q3 p
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
6 U7 \) }" [5 Y( Y; {, pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
i- q; }$ Z6 w' }0 N% v, n/ isustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes." i- i5 S+ f* Q: Q/ |
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the7 j+ N3 t/ E2 n: |
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
W3 I9 ~* Z+ `home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 m! y( t3 v, d$ O/ TAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the- ]8 [, G$ F ]5 Y! v3 d y
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
7 t5 _( D/ e/ [# A$ Rthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
8 h2 `. d5 r" U* }9 U/ m According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: z* D( g R& S- v; o/ |may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
1 u( L+ G9 d; U4 X- S7 @! Cthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at' ?# V0 _- U, f% x6 N; o2 G
historically depressed levels.1 N$ U' A n3 o9 S$ R
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
' M5 ]0 w8 R! _4 D& x. V' d6 |& kof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
% o2 p/ Y. A o' Rprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
5 s3 c" M: k; W! b) _3 Ehands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 d+ J4 g( e* h8 @1 I" eenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the2 o' I' n, f+ J7 _1 j5 T4 \% P' ?7 n
months ahead," added Hogue.
/ c1 c. n1 B; p" U# Q RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; J8 w+ L5 J5 Ocities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
4 |( e9 V/ X! V6 S* v6 Q+ P42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 x6 n: N" H1 V$ O# T; j
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
9 @, S5 p; M6 Q6 ya broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these+ e/ {8 x! p6 e: c& q8 G1 o
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only* a: N* h/ v! K
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.' B% H6 ]! u8 k- N' t
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
6 `1 y. k- z' o$ R$ l6 Xbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
3 o" X G' j0 L1 P. R+ t1 Sbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented' L- s8 S* x' I3 R% ~
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
* k8 U2 x) ], X" U3 _6 Scondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
/ t$ t" ]+ b- h( g5 i7 E0 u% [For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership/ N1 r8 ~! H( B4 v
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50" Y P. l$ H$ J% H" v! X: m7 V1 W: D
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.( m* |. A @9 K6 M+ g3 J
- v, V6 t8 T1 h* q <<9 A% H5 F& F% t8 ?6 e9 J/ w; Y: V
Highlights from across Canada:
* k: m* K8 ?( q6 Q6 E* M. }
9 O" H" T2 k9 S) ^- I1 F, s9 a" [ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- K; Y: `" {, c" [( w intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
4 D I; i* y/ m/ H, a) c5 s home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound4 ^$ h9 N3 e, C/ @" `
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
" S/ V1 I0 ?3 e4 m3 ^ since about the middle of 2007.
- R; ] T( O, o& j4 J% h. G. ] - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the9 V3 b* Y2 W2 V7 r! s' M
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to1 p7 K1 i" E+ h7 [3 n* f
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
. ~" d% X% {: s largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( `5 i' x, z; l. Q6 M! @- ^$ N: N
poor affordability levels.8 C, G. I, `& |, ]
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the% ]+ d8 F) {+ i0 c! D
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
, R5 d, a, e0 w# W prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 S. h& b. S; X; p* Q" I; @ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to: ^1 P5 N, c |5 }1 P5 w, ?
minimize any downside risks." Y# E. M7 y% r: T) L) {4 e- j5 w
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( R) \7 S" q+ ]) `2 q* t
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is$ p0 O4 W) |! e3 M* O9 F* T3 R
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
, X. N: x/ ]2 _5 F) B 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) a% m$ `# g, `, T' j# m' E* u
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
J$ i F& \' u' Z/ o V9 ? - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
5 v5 X5 S) b7 P) j5 J! w' A8 z Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
X# ?$ d5 P, Y3 Z0 w& S far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up1 V% T( Y7 y) T; v; o3 W8 d* r
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
7 l. j. W4 h8 x; T! K6 S ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ w/ n' Y' {1 W, ~* J modestly in recent years.
4 i/ Y* c! j o8 `2 n$ O - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the1 O+ p1 X9 G( S5 M
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot3 u# d- R3 \: x5 ]$ ~! p4 L% g
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward4 ~( ^& `" O6 A1 P
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability7 E7 `- S" g& k+ |/ p- B& R9 O
following two years of deterioration.
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