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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
) X+ A) o1 r3 [1 H; c TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the% v, n6 C+ y; L7 d; V0 s, P3 `2 p/ D
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, \7 ^. O* I7 m3 ~
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
/ x/ e/ u) E1 Q; O6 {0 L4 ~according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
1 M1 T' Y4 `' _* | "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
; O1 J: s3 R7 [9 Csaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is7 {& |! F, U6 }3 C6 l0 ^) v" X) {( d
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability, _- v$ @- k1 @0 l0 E# f/ Y
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
1 |- B7 w# k1 G# `" B/ Q4 m RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
6 z- F6 t' v. G2 Pworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,2 _* |! a5 u0 S' m7 `) I
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have( k! |5 r0 w/ }6 B
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
4 p4 [! l; R3 O8 K& \ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
; o* }* i8 [- \9 oproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a! [) u. }8 ]) D$ V
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.4 S4 I& Q: W+ A# J7 K3 P
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
j/ X: z, L% t, O3 pstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and' J8 F% M( J9 U
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent." R* b* ~, p S/ R& |6 v. }! H6 \* y* x' b
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
7 e0 o" d, o6 @- z' p Y' Cmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
" v( p5 E) T' f9 C! W) U* T0 wthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at1 Z& X4 N( n# ~, x# H
historically depressed levels.
! m$ C5 @5 f2 a8 U Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost4 W5 O. H# D7 P1 e& w/ \) _3 z4 F
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House s9 D; [: J" j5 l" q2 L
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 C9 q/ e: S$ L8 j0 @5 W
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
7 E0 z/ {( J2 H4 S" V1 T. V9 u" @enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the9 b( \$ Z0 U0 ~1 c8 z2 i/ g6 o
months ahead," added Hogue.
( q# c* f6 y) [( z RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest4 A1 ^4 F$ \% s+ @ S
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* Q. m5 J8 z. v
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.% e; r4 G0 p* ^( Y% K# n S( Z
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
5 j& O! [" t( [6 w+ d( Ka broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
) U6 L/ {5 h1 Q: xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only1 ^1 b1 g4 N& N# ~
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
# n; u& x, C5 b& ^* V* @ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is. { O9 a8 a% C, V
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property) E6 z; O$ B6 a2 _1 G. i; \7 ^
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
' x5 P s; o3 Eincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# w/ g5 N" w0 x0 K6 ^6 x/ ~9 tcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home." x; ?' o" U+ F( n0 T; A/ ]
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership( }5 X4 T7 X& U! x: H) ~" F
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
- M8 ~; e6 I d( r" ?3 tper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
1 O- h' q0 t- }6 e' E6 f
: U1 D+ b) i/ g4 I <<
g: e! i( Z$ W: x0 Z* B/ p Highlights from across Canada:
! a& S1 q' O/ W' S |6 H
+ c" F& _' Y0 Q$ S& F - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 G4 W' a4 f$ b0 U. V% A2 `- o% H intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
/ D3 \. x8 `7 c x* ~ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
. ~, @. {1 E/ P5 g: X# l only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track) Z/ t* e1 O F9 y- t: t
since about the middle of 2007.3 Q; k. s5 U7 h! n- X
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
: F0 Q5 r! k" \# s( F: v! V frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
3 l; S: U! Z, i0 Y, X, _ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still; h$ ?) p& p( n
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely9 f+ y. v7 M& q+ k% R
poor affordability levels.: x0 b8 r9 t# J( ~5 R! O
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the1 {$ e2 m5 b) l# i
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
* x* t. w7 d& ^3 \" z2 v$ }% w prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.( ]$ r# {$ y* v; i3 ?! M C
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to: |* l8 p( N0 b6 C6 Z% U# I
minimize any downside risks.) n, o% n( p0 {( b! x. P
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; d1 Q. I" U" f @" e conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is5 c7 \; m+ d# X
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( {3 f& w) L4 ~- H; B
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly7 i6 k& U9 m7 W
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
$ p: l, i8 T; H, P4 {9 k0 a - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
. ^. W" i7 |# A4 t9 K/ K8 o% N Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus; a$ Q: X* g/ f7 u
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up3 w I5 Q* ^1 _+ y, y" v
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be# A) w* i. j d$ S# n7 P
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
/ O4 {6 B; D7 b' W modestly in recent years." G$ L" g. U2 j2 Y7 ?
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
$ U3 V; y5 N, s5 m/ E" S1 s general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
' `" A3 Q G+ _$ a) t spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
% C" [9 u* f* g" b3 C price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
D+ {8 b) E$ u. B2 e following two years of deterioration.( E5 s1 L5 H: i* P3 o4 v2 N' T9 i
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