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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 n& G3 p( M2 x4 r
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the; h0 ?/ W' J7 ~
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 x: a l, m, T- m
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,: O( l* b9 M$ A- N
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
7 N* L8 Y( s- e6 `2 b# ?; j9 p "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! Y6 U1 H; I' w( n2 ?( U2 ?# X! T
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 V, z6 R# E+ k) E+ _1 w0 q/ }
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability- ~; e3 ~* v8 D/ O! ]& V
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 |6 h; @7 S3 r$ J% x' U RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
# v; U& C Y3 g6 E( W1 sworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- w0 Q8 l& E8 ?& r; N, q
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
$ S1 N4 \8 t. k( d5 o7 [sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- T5 C8 J4 V+ ^% t! X The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
$ ^1 c* T @$ }( X p! G* wproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
B: @( s( \ T9 T" M& hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( s1 }7 m/ }2 s# k, A. ]1 }8 [
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 ~* l3 i1 M: R1 i3 [
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 o4 ]* f9 m s( Z( S4 v6 ~6 W; _
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
" B9 t- t3 ^+ e0 k s' N% u According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
P/ e0 r/ q# y8 f$ n' V+ e7 vmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
! j% @' A; F8 [4 ^! D8 i4 Kthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) x9 T7 x0 e% I, Y( s5 Z. khistorically depressed levels.
) }, Q5 v$ L" | P Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 f. P0 s3 Y$ _1 g. O
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ z+ j. x8 P* D' nprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
6 O, E% v: b$ o, ~/ C; Nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This: S* O/ L* f; X4 s: m6 f' A
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the' ]: ?7 Z7 q; d
months ahead," added Hogue.2 B2 y; ~" o% x9 B
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
& e5 u* ?3 b0 g! t& \cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ v! z' n( e, {, e" S' S42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
; Y+ d: q$ k7 N The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for6 B$ _# t7 l* Y: ?. k7 P9 G
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these7 f: y! B' R" O1 V5 K3 p+ V
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
n8 n& V S! [9 ^0 Ptakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
! ?9 G2 i& K, F5 e* S" [. | r) y The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is9 T/ X7 d7 y, E
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ g# E# c, `: b0 b
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
7 W, h: e7 x& T2 bincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard$ E/ F; P# e8 y2 y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.# [) s8 B( @2 s9 X& [2 N- y
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership% }# o! W/ l M
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 500 u8 F) o" ~2 u# \
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
# |, \& W1 X8 l' I9 m
* i5 ] v- A; D M) R) u <<
+ _* I/ f9 b. M8 [ Highlights from across Canada:6 i& ^/ |# X w. G& q
4 ?% M {7 C( L+ i; W7 B+ S
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( q0 }( u) I$ K( h6 [( K
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing6 W& _7 F5 d$ U e; W$ _2 Z" A
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
$ L6 X( e" {* H, D& w only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track" A0 A: `5 T- S" J
since about the middle of 2007.6 F( w+ z! O7 l; ]4 ?
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
' Z8 Y* Y+ O3 b" [+ [! p! A frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to( u2 j/ T! f4 r& e( C* f/ x. V1 z
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still4 j1 u; D% @( S, h
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely; K) w8 E5 u# z. H6 c/ q9 U
poor affordability levels.- K) l% C6 q; m- w: V
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the2 G6 b+ P+ T9 n( I) r3 `
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 F [& z% w) T% t# C+ o prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; Y+ D" Y8 _# `' W, o9 ?4 |; j Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! n' b* d8 V: p V( H# k; H minimize any downside risks.$ k9 w% v) ]/ {. v- `9 M2 D
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
* n* s3 i8 R z- B conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ B# }1 J7 d5 g' Z' J2 ]
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* e2 g5 G* J: f% L
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly$ ?4 f5 h" @/ E
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
, w9 S8 ?1 H, o# s! j& N7 L, |5 V - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in5 W) h: `0 s) T8 _2 P0 m- B6 s
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
3 {% t% c9 H; `' E2 N$ B, x far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ F, g% }- F5 H& b* ]
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 o9 Y4 c0 \0 a* o. L) \
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only d( \: F. A8 Y2 Z& ~. C7 C
modestly in recent years.
" j5 h. y, S9 i1 q ^ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* g; k/ W. a9 m, |. E
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot" z6 q! @) y6 P; R
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
9 W% T! H! M0 }! b' h+ j price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability% _9 ?; x6 U* y& O
following two years of deterioration.
$ X# P/ H1 B ]+ ?, W7 ` >> |
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