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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
4 @( L4 s5 g: H5 f) K) k; |. A TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
9 r6 j/ a7 G$ g# o7 W2 hmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
( |; O& V# Q: ?3 |gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 P$ o' |' ]. A& S, uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 k: m4 r! p1 b/ @. A/ O "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
. U) l1 T \0 t! Q3 @said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
* k2 I" m- Q) |& V% M1 Mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 R/ b5 X8 M5 l) D2 Cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 Z" T: C, c; v4 M. `
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
2 n+ B1 N5 o/ G5 g. ~worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 [4 [$ F+ H4 W( c3 U6 ~8 m6 Qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 f5 N3 Z% T+ o. l! c
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
( W* m# F% u8 O- u1 y6 m+ a5 D The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 Z0 S9 U# Q0 \2 L0 Y4 M
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a0 M w! ?4 c# l1 F( w3 U& [6 G
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.$ R" @) F4 j5 Z4 i1 x1 _- T
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
% F4 g X6 N3 K( Estandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
; M% M8 O: k: x4 M: i# s- ithe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.9 H! o; T8 ]2 f( p ^
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
3 V) C/ M8 A8 K, @may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
: r% l2 r5 e5 e6 E8 N/ Y% Tthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
9 p# v( x8 d4 ?& Y/ e& [0 Shistorically depressed levels.
" N& J& Y. R7 q3 t4 L9 v% J Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
X( |% b" u+ C4 x# p1 b7 {- @0 qof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
. D) i7 M) {" p9 rprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# S/ {: [) f% O! {, J# ^
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 G1 L4 V) S; J; A' v
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the2 W! J" m& ~8 C: D. z
months ahead," added Hogue.2 m* B) b; ~: ~4 x
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
) @1 n; L5 i$ i; m# Wcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
) u; ?' Y5 y+ w8 A* [3 i% k42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.' r5 |1 b! N `
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
7 |+ ~; |5 _" O! Ea broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these" P& |. o, G' Z' y# @' f
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
- c& w% `0 J" xtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
+ B4 X2 Z) z8 H0 q The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" O3 x9 J0 g: l" q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property2 V# y$ [" M! s$ J7 X* U: l6 R
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
0 l" l0 a/ e1 z- C5 z; w! [including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard7 z- u1 [4 Q: A2 B+ C0 U& H' {
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
( z5 E$ j) \7 R: ~3 bFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 v% \. W" b% {+ N8 icosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
1 |8 |) x( M% |- e* ]( P1 @- m6 z1 ^, vper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
4 ]+ Q9 W5 }6 n z( S) \) M# a0 y9 {" d* \$ z |
<<1 Z& A! U" }; T
Highlights from across Canada:
& i% O4 ]* f, ~2 Y; r( J7 Q+ v/ F9 {+ G
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has ]9 |; Q6 I4 ?) v2 U8 n3 |
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing1 J: a0 v9 ^6 R
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound( [* \0 ?, n% A( F! S; e+ @6 I$ p
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track/ n, Z* r3 |- x C7 ?' g4 |
since about the middle of 2007.
9 `! \9 w J: u1 z% T - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the, S- l$ V) R i y1 B. Y% y' d
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to. L @0 p, @. ]
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still |7 L4 L# |5 p Y/ Z& A0 Q
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
3 w3 U' h8 ]2 h/ \ poor affordability levels.
I' L, T$ I# Y8 D0 r' V& w4 \$ D* O - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" v' z: B% l% a$ K2 K* a
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: m s! ]8 ~, r2 f# _ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; V% Z& S" g# S$ L Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to3 d+ d- U8 B5 v0 w, g
minimize any downside risks.$ d; }" @* X$ c! b: F
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. U& |& f5 T4 d: |
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
) I! H( I; w% E; Y- e2 F& ^9 S unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early3 v) z8 w1 l' N4 @3 c/ B" T
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
- s' p2 F) @. H$ d, s( [9 N: Y being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.* O1 b" b# M3 x
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in8 _! U' V% B; ]7 U0 G
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus* Q+ P% A. _& j2 ^( W
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up3 J$ D B# M9 d t0 z
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 @1 Z7 r! B" B! g/ i
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
- w, Q+ \, U0 n' p; c modestly in recent years.9 L0 ~7 C1 s6 E/ W; f/ D& }6 L
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
% N" P7 A" O9 a5 g' ] general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
8 C$ M1 x* f# D1 \6 K. X spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward2 Q. g: Z: `& j( w v& j# t! W
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability6 A) B( o. F6 i2 @7 Q
following two years of deterioration.
6 f% W$ e) R! R. W >> |
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发表于 2009-4-15 19:05
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