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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
0 z! T. C* k" P Y TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the# [" M4 i$ a' I; J. w$ H
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
7 H) Z( J1 l: I) M- ?+ H) y# U# d: [gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 K9 z, t. }4 V. t$ x
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
( a6 O3 L1 ~0 ` "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
( d: J" |& X9 A, }- |6 Z3 G* Ysaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is, X, E2 C" W9 y$ b- e) N
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 R* z) h) I8 Q$ H
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 x7 r; S/ c3 Q2 h0 ] RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
7 w8 D. D3 Y( o( _1 yworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, M; v: I% Z+ H2 t! `0 ewhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 E; i" R2 v7 O* ~( c& j: Y" Nsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; n2 p' ^8 \" N# E9 f9 g8 x The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the! a o( o+ L: M5 ]2 B$ v' L1 L+ t* i
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 N0 Q. h$ a8 f1 D: T' k
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: K1 k! c' V8 @+ ` h6 R: f9 r$ UAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 g, z% U& F, Y; ?6 y$ Xstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and! L w$ K! B. ~8 G q; W
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. h/ I9 O8 e/ l9 A# @! y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets6 p( u0 ?: ?7 C: j1 | g3 p
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in9 m! i, q/ C6 j$ b# T
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at0 x4 J- c/ W; l8 v. d8 H" z4 o, ~: T
historically depressed levels.4 f+ f5 J; D( _4 g
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost$ Q, }& I: D+ X0 E0 i t3 y
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
- q: o+ i. v3 h) T' Cprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& a6 r0 u& o w* mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& f3 @- ^3 X8 {- X' J8 v5 Q b# tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
' R$ Q7 \$ j! H5 i3 \months ahead," added Hogue.' n Z x# P( Q3 s @8 `! p
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest9 M/ h: f( H! Y. s! R
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary3 H3 @2 C" c& I. k
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 {! U. v7 {( D- a6 E
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
1 Y9 Y6 ~- ?5 o3 Aa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these0 @5 D4 x2 g0 F5 t; o7 D
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
! A, R* w3 [( ?2 F5 L Vtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
& r* ]+ M- B6 R) r. L The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is1 {4 Q a* w( v6 T: M; [ n
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property7 r3 ^, `6 s. k6 f' N+ ?
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented9 m1 q% C" w/ h1 n3 U6 h3 c
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard: s1 k" R, ^9 J5 i' L t# U
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
4 k/ _! A2 l; F0 _ V$ PFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership7 l" [6 y5 W; @3 s- s+ l, c
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
7 y( I8 L- L; @. Y! @. h) M( |5 tper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
* k4 a' _4 R4 Q' G* i Q) x c5 n
. e6 O2 O; }5 F' J( @ <<
7 T- V& m5 A2 i0 M- e6 K4 _ Highlights from across Canada:
; b* z) C& j' _
. v8 j. f b6 f+ p; v - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has& F# s9 Z1 v: G1 z8 T/ s
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing7 M* f3 F! D' d) Y& S, N* ` U' I
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound. b% s2 l1 \9 M& U% m- G+ }8 E
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track; W- d h/ x1 v
since about the middle of 2007.. c- K! z# n; K: v7 i# `% M
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the' g' V( v* ^2 g# u( c
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
0 j3 L- K( v6 C8 E6 R" g decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
6 f8 r" A+ u" a# U2 x2 @2 H. e) l largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely% t' _ B9 u, n5 }5 ~- E
poor affordability levels.0 j" t! ~& |9 E
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
( h4 f, ^* `* L P* v vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: k: u% `4 s) H! i prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.3 `% P* v5 a* S( g( V* f
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
$ }" N% C) W: B3 ~. j! B0 B minimize any downside risks.3 f G+ S% k4 r1 z6 O
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market# C+ T. ~7 e% C1 a" E5 U- H
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
& y: O5 z+ z3 I! u) C; ^ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
6 k! w5 E6 N2 _$ E1 x2 ? 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. x* R7 t+ @; a; F7 c" B7 W
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.$ S1 q% I0 g0 }) G
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in1 }" t6 @# U0 ^4 w
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
C P& u! s$ J& i( i far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
( \7 f9 ]! c8 x7 T7 i reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be- @* \$ T5 p$ c- o; e. G/ Y
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
5 T# O( U* ]( E. g: Z+ ` modestly in recent years.
2 p+ |/ l$ N; c/ R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
6 J$ X) v* y: [+ ] general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
6 [9 l5 O) G8 Z! A spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
! L# {/ s2 r8 Z& r; f price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability5 h4 l! r0 `8 a5 _" U7 G
following two years of deterioration.
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