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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - v- J4 k. P# A% v" C- Z H. T3 I
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& V9 X! E; z- u# Y0 gmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive y9 ~ b, I5 k2 @$ z
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,7 K D# `% M7 K6 I
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
i# u$ Z5 r" t- z& t! x" B: }- n2 Z "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"1 B t' O& X6 Q4 F/ W9 q4 X! f: W: I
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is$ m( M, [' g1 ]& G
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 L. o7 M6 c9 [. M# u
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.", }2 N: O! Y( a) M& p
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
% d. Q/ y' J( G6 eworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 \8 t. G" p6 w" Z0 N" C# m
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 g6 U" G9 r& f0 S& H6 C
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% X- v5 d$ i0 b+ _9 k4 m The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the# B( g5 ]0 k5 f9 E9 \0 k/ d# Y
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a- T7 G/ ?6 I+ b
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ \9 \% ]0 F" w$ U) pAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
, {, n# f( E' Z8 G$ s" ^0 s- Ustandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 g( u6 g4 d8 K I/ F
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
" g, A$ G; O% ]- f According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
7 j _- V0 l- I+ b: t& dmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in! S6 {, Z: _2 r3 N" w' S) f
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 L& R* Y. [- H. ^& q/ p; L
historically depressed levels.6 n- E, E- B5 D" i, v+ @$ _
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost- r T* N6 _1 s
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House Q5 a; m. a8 l: X, U/ T
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
: J2 i& D( i* a' h) P2 R( H$ V1 Ihands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
' Q5 j) o4 |2 {& h: Yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
3 b) h: T' `3 N* v- w" G4 s. S* \months ahead," added Hogue.' g5 k+ h4 d2 k; j) Q" q
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
# e+ @& m3 d! O- t! jcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary; d3 I' a9 C0 i- i H- Q# e5 j, L
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.8 B* E( C( ^/ s1 J% s5 \9 E7 D
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for9 A! Q! |# T5 K
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these7 E9 ]/ [$ @% A7 [$ c' H
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only$ x$ j7 J" Q+ Y* a4 K2 Y3 R( N
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.5 V: `! F2 M' r i8 x+ i
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ j* _4 Y/ Q$ T% ?* P0 Fbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property6 X, W* i+ S6 e4 S
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
' @ H1 k4 t9 U$ }: jincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
! o0 [" W, R3 m* a& icondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
3 p5 ^* ]6 l" w* R4 n7 I' I. AFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
( T) u0 ^# U* X% g; _0 Tcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50" y( O+ w: g) F1 M) r
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
: B% q+ o" o+ L! X5 E
# ^/ X" |' g+ z$ G4 U <<
4 ~& e- |" Z; P) I2 w: F4 V8 { Highlights from across Canada:6 V( o- b+ M9 d) ~# ^( M& Y
% k6 S9 m3 y3 H& j - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
) ~6 G6 ^4 b. r4 ~2 ` intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" c; c3 X0 [1 I; B' W4 d: P6 g R3 z$ w
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; r7 M/ ~# D1 B3 M
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track+ T- T8 w d e% J
since about the middle of 2007.0 h2 `! S; \; F2 N( R+ r
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 V" Y# Q3 `4 c5 t9 x/ M1 {
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# `' h5 t5 ^9 q8 C. R' V decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
/ N% b% e6 p2 J, {# l1 z largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely$ k4 w a8 O& _
poor affordability levels.
' R" |3 a% m5 a) v - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) ]* u& F, k: Q+ a% Q
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 `( E# e6 y" ^
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly." K# K7 w4 H* @
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
- H. Z/ P0 q& c" U minimize any downside risks.3 C# L% D5 }9 j
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. s6 d; b; y- O6 R9 j# V
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. G* _* D0 U) `' x0 D unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
+ ?& M: {/ M- W2 H 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
5 ?& ]/ V2 t S% M+ k+ C6 z, a being restored to levels closer to long-term averages. p6 \$ Z' Z$ S1 r
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, y9 s& Q* Z( t4 [ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus$ d) K4 v6 ]' C5 l% C. F
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up2 q% N) @$ o# P
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be# _! S' M% ]) s
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
% X6 \: U$ c: N8 y modestly in recent years.
8 _8 B' ^! h: `: ~ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the- w8 U! y( u6 r5 ~1 d
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
% A; V- N5 \) J spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward; O# u1 J9 ~6 r, e
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
# P. s9 @$ t6 d+ P6 T' |. s& i following two years of deterioration.
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