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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 b' e- }8 [! h7 Z) w
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
. Q. z* N h1 Y: M/ }middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
4 {0 I* e0 y" @' c: Hgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,: U8 L8 ]* I( N4 y. e* a
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
% u; |# ?: X; Z5 d3 T( B l "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,". z# V- `0 L7 }+ Q
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is0 K6 _& `4 g3 B+ C+ c( P5 F3 V
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability& {& H9 i( q5 |1 \3 ~- {4 j
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
) E( V' q8 x0 @& ~1 g7 i% L8 | C! \ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
; }6 r+ y l) ?" bworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,) [4 s6 l" K& P- T
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have" ]0 {* A% u( G4 M3 r- s
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" n+ M& [% j4 n/ \# ]3 A The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the" @* q6 L8 D+ \1 H8 b, ?4 c$ L
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a; }9 ]3 ~2 J& ^/ z" |( A
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
5 M8 _- U2 F; Y! M3 i `3 r4 K" NAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
% E* p6 h. |4 F3 r: |: Pstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
& G% n# n1 r6 b# k7 Nthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
! u+ n; V. T# T+ P7 I" Q According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets% K) h$ K7 u# B0 X
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
* D: \: T R k& L y1 Jthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at5 x/ `8 r5 n8 x2 E# Q
historically depressed levels.
9 G+ K. ~' ?" y h4 J Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost( S" [1 e9 J# n6 U6 D
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
% v. U! O1 F {& l7 |* kprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
8 H; b# T) H1 ^0 mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
* a3 B/ g3 W2 U8 @( fenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
! T* P5 }6 l# h( r; y* z1 H, fmonths ahead," added Hogue.) V# `/ |" K* H% ^4 U: X
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest- ^5 w! I. }5 {5 \1 X- j
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary9 I: @! q. K3 z+ i4 K
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# v# \# R7 ]- ~ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
6 @: k$ q3 A4 \) m r1 u" ya broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
# U( b+ T3 d" i2 ?6 {- p( |4 X4 Rcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
1 G# M$ f# F) D4 Dtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.0 [$ q2 D W+ f! M/ A) B# F
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
7 |; h" t. {5 q1 Q0 ^+ vbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
' w* k# t2 N" N+ A! K- Bbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
* q! M% [( R9 cincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 [' A2 f, m7 O# \' \
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* ?3 ?* U9 [. c8 P& ?For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership2 Q% ]( w' b0 t0 y {7 v' b) d( T
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 C+ Z R! Y. b( ?8 T6 P5 Z& O
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
$ M3 T- Q9 T' `( |1 r; B2 z9 a- U4 [+ m0 p
<<
/ l* ~, n9 z+ C0 H- t- G, ^ Highlights from across Canada:
j$ D' H7 O& ?4 `$ k) e4 u% n3 f1 w3 r3 i* O/ I- @9 k4 @& \
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* y7 k% ~; h' w
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
' J5 s; n; N8 d$ D ? home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; `9 M; O5 }" _# H6 T
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 Y, e# r+ i; F since about the middle of 2007.
7 I2 ^& q. H9 G% ~6 m - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the0 K7 }5 f1 I1 H0 q6 k1 C6 [& [) P U8 B+ c
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
! M; a4 r4 l9 ]! o decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
# U+ r0 g" ^# K) k8 k largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
) D: C V' M0 j. J poor affordability levels.) f2 l1 a8 {' r. f( r4 G
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the' {( h/ [6 _ T5 n# k
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
' P q2 N! T8 P% h E6 v& z& S prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.; z+ p6 T/ H: f9 l9 O! y8 z8 R
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to S% |/ i! a0 A8 i0 K4 ]
minimize any downside risks.
% F5 w4 {$ Y2 O1 c - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market4 S9 o3 x' K# [0 a. i2 t
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is0 S, p8 R! ], s. T' D' ]9 K
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
! f2 I" {7 v# u! D& f& @ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly7 T, d" M4 h' \# h0 u7 c3 z( @: U
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.8 c! P$ X; W" I3 k. [, s
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
9 d- r6 y+ J7 V% | Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus* E! i' W, E. y7 g& l
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
" Z+ K/ E( o# P$ B0 } reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 G7 F9 b2 `6 L- N2 p
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
2 j! d. P# c8 _! K! @) |7 m" } modestly in recent years.
. z" n! l: l7 Z( \6 f* ?- I - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' P3 @8 Q4 }1 K, s0 H Q
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
3 A" v4 i, D5 z3 ? spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
7 f5 W" S( [8 M" k) U4 R3 m* C price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
f% o, q6 j6 C: a6 A following two years of deterioration.$ L0 R" t# Z Q2 G, k/ x) j9 l4 Q
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