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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC M+ x9 ~1 P2 h9 m5 v% M; k
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the; \1 X0 }+ R5 x$ @) r1 R/ I
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive; D% J9 b: E; T( r2 Q+ _
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,0 q( e/ v* v0 t J" I/ m: f
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 C+ j; I- X& H- u
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
m1 W" V8 ?' z' p8 S) Gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
$ Q. c* V+ u7 y) P! y4 Dimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& |" I f o# f" O" [* P& O, @measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.", X. _0 E- \: k [3 N, q z
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 n5 c1 }$ R) n
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
+ y: ?9 B/ V- n4 S. V6 ewhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have- n9 B/ E! d! T+ l! F
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
! A# K5 C1 v5 D9 T The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: v2 ^2 a# c5 m+ t& f) @3 \* j+ nproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
: M0 N( g' ]1 N% r0 |* r7 hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.! ]3 s7 n" x$ f6 S' g3 k- P
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
8 A5 V, e& \ ?+ a4 kstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 ~2 y' t$ A. q t$ uthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
4 U. K, e# J# Y7 E( O According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets! H2 F2 ~; M0 x
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
! X2 V+ q/ U8 r0 Y2 D4 R- | N# Mthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at l% k0 W2 ?( n5 y \2 j: v
historically depressed levels.
3 X$ S3 n3 U0 r2 ]& y Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost: ^) S1 K7 i: V7 x: i1 w4 `
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
) v- |7 _4 g" E2 s. W% ~. qprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# h9 U) \4 |0 }# s. d
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 W( w6 M8 i7 w" b7 `
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the- N! S G& C/ o' _+ m& ]
months ahead," added Hogue.1 ~( b3 p8 m) k/ v: f& h/ x. {7 F
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
4 m/ X& h& A0 L+ Z5 g$ V: }cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary; Z" o! F" B N* {% u7 @) ]
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.& o* N* q- O+ ]
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 P4 x$ M+ b: Ra broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these+ k0 C, z x4 W' j. c+ Y+ ~
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
1 W2 ^% q! p7 O: W6 ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 p( l3 H$ O' I0 I
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
4 e s' E# ^6 C2 L2 q) {5 F2 sbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
" c8 n! u! a/ T0 u% ?& K5 C4 x7 ubenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
+ E+ g4 I8 u/ H9 u5 kincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
' F- c6 z1 k" p7 }3 ccondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* X" J1 \6 U9 y; A5 a T& i, iFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership7 ~6 l3 m; J. S. m% r
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 b# B1 h% X2 o6 t. Y" |
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.. I6 y2 t1 |& e( D5 Z
( o0 I) A) {$ ]5 _! P; w3 t
<<
9 Q& N% b0 Y% P1 i7 q Highlights from across Canada:
2 D2 W; w- @( u1 M" ]1 R1 p( T* r# U: M0 n
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
, Z5 m* h) G2 x5 y! Y" g intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ o/ V' C& M% I$ p# W
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound) ]- s \4 w& U& `
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track: [) N5 S/ \+ l% s6 a2 E; d
since about the middle of 2007.$ N0 C# u2 v7 ` _
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 h% V! d% U, v
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to7 g, N6 H1 W2 R& ?" D
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
1 H/ D& R. r: E/ O6 B+ `& Y9 ^ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' X7 h/ m6 x, Q' T6 Q/ k poor affordability levels.; `- J/ D" d# Y8 R/ C: O8 Q9 b
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the( H2 X. D1 v. T: ^7 b
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and9 N9 b4 g( A0 b5 ~5 F' w/ Q" n2 v& W
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.! Y4 @8 D! k4 C4 d2 q$ M+ i8 h8 e
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to& a$ S2 X: o. k( F- K
minimize any downside risks." T7 [- z) ~0 D& C
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
0 S# n8 q2 x0 Q% o conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
" w* H K; H* l3 X7 g: S6 X unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
: X3 H7 |1 e4 W9 o 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly- O; ~( g1 g* g, T" K. z
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.$ b m/ V* H, I- {/ J* ?6 ?
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
+ H# B0 X2 e+ E( W# l Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus$ D# V5 e1 @' P
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
4 y" k4 M2 C: u" ] reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
7 k, J- E' b4 ?& ? ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" f8 O3 @9 A5 p modestly in recent years.2 w6 @6 s" W( z# K) r& {
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the( m! t- y3 A* [& O4 C/ k7 E
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
4 a/ |4 l( C& i% h; a+ A6 C+ {+ S spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ U$ w. M, S8 k* ]
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability& V k) n% I8 D- c: Z7 I' c( G
following two years of deterioration./ g ^8 T5 M' Z8 f) Z$ R" [
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