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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 1 n8 o" g* R1 _- [* j2 v8 ?. s5 W
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
h) N% M4 `$ N5 N: c/ `" y- Ymiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
( Z4 x5 ^+ d. H1 Jgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
( F, N2 d8 \- \ j- Vaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
1 u* \8 h/ V! X+ b6 @- N/ e "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
5 o* X% g* _; E$ f5 b$ f% B+ }said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is3 u; |4 N. G/ X/ j/ ?5 X
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& q1 _) ~/ M. Q) W, Z( dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
( y5 G9 L0 D# c |, W) L/ K RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
z; J3 l& w2 t$ _% Nworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,& g/ T9 s. F% u, S/ r" J0 \
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! H- d( E) e# m* [sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.1 J# c. p% l$ u- `, u* O# D
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the v) f3 Q9 X) X6 R/ q
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a8 r5 e$ i& A# @, z) g+ H+ x
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ p$ n$ Q3 B' y; p# T: {
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
7 F% ~( q$ G" z3 t2 ?2 ystandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
. i6 I. P$ w: Z- fthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent., [" Q/ P( a3 I. A8 r
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
4 V- v8 E' C6 Z) K Zmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
5 x% |+ i! K+ U4 othe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
/ m" N2 L& r1 o) x/ D$ Ehistorically depressed levels.1 A, w4 Z6 P- p) i* G" T
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
4 m7 _6 r! ~' W( Nof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* b; @9 y- M9 q) z' T9 Iprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
0 k) l$ ~5 P" R, B, `hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
, ^+ e( \- _* J" Eenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
7 V+ ~7 A; o5 E* \ [months ahead," added Hogue.$ k2 u9 R. `- w( b
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest$ z1 g: P- o# U9 `5 y$ ~1 [$ i8 ]
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary9 i0 g3 u: Z7 G9 S* r+ }2 {
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
5 d, U; v, G# U The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for6 r& i8 o) d) v' F
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
- m0 Y, N( Y% I8 s& z8 j. {cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; y% U/ P3 ]0 z* h' x% i5 rtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
8 j* x' q% I" O- }0 r, v The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
q; m" d/ R; j; xbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property7 f; Z5 {% q/ @2 p
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented$ ^5 z, b5 J# a/ O
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard; y5 A! d& n) K2 u7 i- o4 j5 n
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
" v0 s d2 [/ Q: IFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 v, @4 x9 [! f- Z2 l
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# f' h+ o" Z+ B7 s8 a0 Y
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
" b2 P t" O. t& r
6 t a$ P' G# R1 j% A @ <<
8 P5 m+ Y) c$ H& V9 {* q6 `+ ^ Highlights from across Canada:9 @0 n3 T+ o5 m7 I. S
: I3 R; a& W9 {' w( g/ n6 p - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- p5 j& d8 \, D8 S intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing: W; ~5 V. ~3 f i% Q( p8 t9 {, ]
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- h/ z+ ^" b; n) \" ]* ` only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
& h9 Z, E% g1 }: s$ ~8 U since about the middle of 2007.
$ [; j. n- Z; f# M8 { - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" \, m8 M( |# |1 M/ L* V/ S frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 I* e5 ^7 U- M. ~( H9 ]
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
9 z; m' r2 Z \" v largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( y& H5 ?$ K) T' e1 X9 ^6 M poor affordability levels.( g6 ^' `0 ^4 T3 p+ [
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
l9 a5 S: u R' U- M# r4 v0 h vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
5 c1 U0 U- O& V# Q prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.% C1 R5 V# P" H" z9 Z
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
$ L; J! M0 A. Z+ y minimize any downside risks.
: l% i+ f% b2 ]5 B/ y: i - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market) ^, M/ ?* a `! O
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is4 f6 a# j# X8 C( B/ J1 ?
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
" d5 t- [! n3 O# a8 r2 v' \3 S8 U 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
( F+ _8 O! {( }4 i, ?; g being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.6 ~6 ~8 q J n( O' ], T9 @
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in- K# [2 K8 H- z( c) P6 |
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
9 O! i+ n0 Z* p( ?/ S. V far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up3 N7 A1 i8 h% l' r. V* H
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
( C9 ?$ O! d3 y# g ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only7 z# l+ ~( t* G4 r
modestly in recent years.9 i, m! G! w5 l) g2 f; d
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the+ |9 v- o8 x, l' {# _
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot6 P4 I0 D0 s6 q- p `6 z" z
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward/ l2 [3 u' K5 l. G' o- u: o
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability( A2 T6 L6 y' ?$ X
following two years of deterioration.. Y. `& R' `- L( p; K
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