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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC * @3 h( M4 d9 r% v8 }
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
6 F2 {, Q1 _* ?2 X+ K0 u, Kmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
8 [4 o% e& v- u5 o1 Lgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,& a# w0 C; _) J- h( a6 d! D% V( H) _
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
+ {) L) A# _( m* S( Z0 J "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
. R d Z5 U% x; e% x' `' Zsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is" g- ]3 x* p7 F% N' I9 k
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability1 u5 `1 N6 q' P$ P! ]. T3 s. [5 x
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
, h1 t' l0 r0 ~; J; S RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is# P0 J- o& N" h$ E1 f3 V7 [, u3 i0 z7 Y
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,: h6 f; ~: d$ H4 J' q
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have d9 _. o& Y) L( d' `
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
3 O, B8 H- S( n The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the- c$ B; @2 t( I5 |6 K6 \' M# L
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a* |1 y6 u% f7 y+ W
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 c' y/ a: u7 IAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' k- ~, @) |- h! j7 C, x9 x# Ostandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and9 o. ~* z! \. h3 D% H
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent., N: J7 |/ {; s' Z+ V
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
) t+ j# z, _( {' a" `: N kmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
; Z- E$ j; [, d% P6 C$ n( p' Z9 r0 Ethe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
' D- x" y7 J1 | Q- ?7 D6 chistorically depressed levels. K& n$ E* `5 S# N
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost8 U9 D# ?* |# ?) Z0 _) q! f8 r' r4 C
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
) e* b& j0 }* T/ Y* \8 Z3 `7 e2 ^prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the* s; z4 @9 K" F3 O4 I# T
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% R5 w& e- K* i/ ~! kenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ }" ?0 z1 x0 a; b8 D% Lmonths ahead," added Hogue.
" F9 `5 q/ f; a# h RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest: C$ S0 @, r, j, \( P
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
: o2 f0 E/ q$ f1 S( v# h; E2 i7 h42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 Z2 e2 Q5 ^1 o @$ D% j# O The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" R/ N+ x& l1 Z4 z4 a
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
* o0 Z. T# ~' ~. `cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
' V3 q! l7 ~( I3 o1 l& |takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
0 I: N; f% S9 b$ j H9 y6 m The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
1 R; i( |$ }+ n5 {8 h" A$ L8 ibased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property5 M, u" {6 z# t$ g7 v7 u
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented8 N9 H: g( i/ X$ R3 d( w
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard s& B7 [+ v: {: \0 l
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.( B7 g* ?1 B* W! z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
+ {4 U2 C1 V% d2 A) }9 W4 pcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
J% }% C' J& f/ g$ u I( `0 nper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.) p0 v$ a! i6 D" O6 q3 Z# v
% M: N3 H3 p# Q. u <<
) Z* f$ B. D. l, G3 v) H& v Highlights from across Canada:( W1 F: h, k2 t% h: Z4 |
- V% H* g* w5 ^ |; j - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ d( Y$ w! n! B w* p
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; g) M( F2 h+ ^* b8 T6 H3 e ^
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound8 I0 n6 b/ L: D7 I9 z) h
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track$ D! M3 D3 L5 y) b; j0 \+ ^& ]7 e
since about the middle of 2007.5 R$ C# V- h" w" ?' A( X
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the: f+ j# w8 c5 X$ i
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to% y; n6 W7 v4 N: w' k% z. V
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still; F/ r7 X7 [1 r
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: p# W) U, B A5 ^( C poor affordability levels.
) d3 v1 x, g* ^% f - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
1 e3 _# z/ A" O' j9 s vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and3 j% G% k% @* D7 N& z
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.; X" [3 |% k* M8 ^1 X' Y
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
; q% h( D( L# { minimize any downside risks.
8 S( K% b7 t2 V - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
0 _- b1 ?8 w/ f. d conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) [ e9 o1 O1 W* @
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ g) i& T/ ^5 ]% x5 b' y 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' P/ Z) p: O! [# S7 h being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) e1 G! ^% K5 ]# G6 } - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in& M g$ `$ ^) [
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 F' q' Q# Q0 x8 `, [
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up& _8 H! ~; }$ k& ~
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* V1 E8 Q: g1 f, f% K: u1 j+ u! d9 { ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
8 {0 d5 Z/ w! @+ w6 y modestly in recent years.
& o: ~% a% ~4 ^7 x' p3 a9 t - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the& l8 ?9 T# t6 w3 ]7 Q) U
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot6 J0 f0 |& {7 m) b/ J2 b" [5 C
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward& }; v+ _$ `. E
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 x, J+ z1 ?3 e. ^9 U! W following two years of deterioration.7 Y' Y- U5 {; h# A8 q1 m
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