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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC " h# f. ]# f7 g8 N: j1 x/ c
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the& u$ `: J. i, V$ Y* H! T: \3 l
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive3 S: K: X: z! q3 k6 B
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 J9 B' @0 p. n) Xaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
Y4 d9 F& G( W5 H9 E- `' k( a. o! X "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"9 b* F0 d1 I9 l, j& a8 Z
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is [! _3 J, G8 C6 Q0 O0 p
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability0 S* S, g- v" |. B* u3 S+ P' X
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."& n% [' P4 V4 P* D: P" q! X
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! L" H% c+ G1 \) A* T) [: f6 T( d& \worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,6 m+ O- `7 V( W0 n; \; j/ W
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) n# C- V5 w: [% Q6 esustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.* B* j. X+ D: U: C G. G, D9 y
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( j3 j' T# S! x+ fproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 X- h) h9 Y5 r G4 ]! chome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
5 d& k/ u5 Y( }7 t, Y6 dAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# T6 k" H- D7 ^: m9 m P
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and3 m4 i& q7 M1 n# i
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
6 C2 @- ?* ^9 y According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets1 z( W9 | H; F2 P ?
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in, I1 T) h$ M% q% M
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) _3 q& {4 d2 b
historically depressed levels.3 N. [7 r# A! i9 Y7 A7 Q2 r
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost" U) C, P! W6 \2 C, e2 m& b
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House, f$ a( r- I B
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the% H, l4 r5 ?' h- p
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 i' j! G: G6 E6 j
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the3 U1 D# `$ |: _! m5 Y$ ~. F* V0 D
months ahead," added Hogue.
- N6 B# {) K# D RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest& V* k1 I& @5 A7 r3 E1 i* Q
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
G& r# V# t# o4 J1 @9 a/ x42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.; y7 v& _: m& q+ ]! x6 t7 ^! Q# _
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
^ C* A) |: F8 V( ca broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
, V) K- A9 [! t* y6 Vcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, i% u# ]& ?+ N& P9 L0 }, ~takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.( M4 d! h/ U6 C3 Q
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
8 P6 C5 y; s3 k- F) l+ dbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; T1 x. e% Z/ n. `: I/ rbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
1 ~0 W. Z0 t9 e/ ^! zincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
$ q4 O q/ B( Y) }/ U- ?condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 y" y9 ?& }' m. {For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership$ _4 p' }. S& R; A4 i, u0 a
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# Q7 \7 o) g0 \( Z$ d+ z
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.5 e1 _. t! O2 n+ O% Q3 b7 {
/ z7 P4 ~: A6 {) s
<<
6 s) {' k, E$ n |* | Highlights from across Canada:
P7 B5 Q/ v9 ?7 n1 U
, h* R: G, g. f5 m6 |) K' H+ E - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
& I5 R1 N% \+ }( m intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing# p8 _( R& F7 b8 g) p. f% Y) n" M
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 r% t! C* d+ E7 q; }9 G8 e only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
/ E0 B& u2 z j& `. F* @' \ since about the middle of 2007.5 g$ o9 ?8 j8 c: B# `9 E$ H$ z+ `4 |
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
\- O, n) M, R: b/ C& a6 d n frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to- D$ J9 x' i, u. j
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* b1 b7 K1 ~% {2 y
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
. D h# w! W: F8 f/ p1 }: \* [+ z2 s poor affordability levels.
^! ?. I6 r( c% |+ u5 H% U - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the- ^7 f9 P3 E& f/ _* i3 t4 Q2 C
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 t1 T8 f+ U( q" ~ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
* K. q" a1 ]" X$ f |0 Q/ ]( ^ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: h, l0 h( n' @- z minimize any downside risks.
( ] ^# r- l) _ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
! V+ Z' ]) R0 R: Y" O1 { conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is8 W; Z: Y& l' }* k
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early) ~8 u4 S, H6 ?6 ~6 s+ a7 Y
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' q1 U( w" c, r. [& E& ~ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
5 }; }& }6 U8 d) R( O# i3 c - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, q4 w. ?, h# j Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus/ k* @) u# f5 A! N- Z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 J4 y3 Z" e1 p8 F& m& ?0 p4 f* m: d reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
4 O& U2 X' i! H: y* C" P( J5 F) b/ ^ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
4 _: P8 w" F7 v- E+ W modestly in recent years.
# b4 T5 ?8 H0 a' M) @" s% X+ { - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the+ o$ E" c" k. f. F6 D+ y9 N
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
( g/ T9 H; J1 k+ z" L spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward& w9 B7 f8 V% {9 X7 C$ j
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
; Q: C, ~) G# X- \ following two years of deterioration.
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