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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 1 W2 U7 i. G! Z8 s! a
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
6 u; E" Q: p" b) P/ O; |& Y qmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
+ Y- E( x; V5 I" Z& ngains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,+ t9 m' F/ `) e8 s! L: J
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.5 t! y# A9 ?7 l5 s& A$ _# Q- S
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"5 a) C' ]+ `3 c' p- b7 ]; B9 N+ c
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is' w, y& V9 L9 G7 ^5 r5 y" w( Z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
+ v2 G G' D* Xmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages." `+ h2 F+ J5 P' O
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
7 t; Z" m9 e- w9 v' O a' U @5 P; zworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,+ T* C6 [! E) W+ y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have, Y; A* S3 `8 R& o2 |( E: T. ]' g2 T
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
8 j0 z5 J2 e5 D8 K% m0 h The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the( c: q% m* K) @+ l# @7 I
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a8 T2 S# M8 \7 w! S4 H( a# c
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
; X6 @8 ~+ H4 P* R# P# oAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
$ \9 `( |4 x# j7 \0 ~" F( H. t# zstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and& h6 S; a* h# b
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.) I' ^! I X, g7 b) Q/ H
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets0 Q& L( p. x5 A" [! Q8 y
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
* |1 D' t# l, L N2 ~the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
* s7 J/ u t/ t3 q7 phistorically depressed levels.* Y* m6 }) _- g# ^5 T
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost- F' a" g' h3 e* R
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
. p. T; Q+ s/ ~- n8 ^prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
! P& Q& O( G6 ihands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- y# E. e' Z" m. Wenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the, u( ^+ h- ~ Z
months ahead," added Hogue.0 t/ T0 v, _; |; d, @8 t
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
9 l6 Z3 D/ J* z8 p# S3 b! K5 tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
8 I5 M J( I$ g% l0 r4 D; V. x42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent." Q5 N5 T1 p- s& k, b
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
& w# g4 ?9 [: ~: w. l& i; sa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these1 B/ e s0 b$ T# _ D: j9 K
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
# [$ X/ I& @2 q$ \8 r4 B2 W7 btakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.# ~# K# P+ P6 N r" g/ e/ G9 C
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
2 V2 X1 ]4 S* j4 }4 fbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
- r# _1 M5 o4 f0 ^) j( X( G4 bbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
# g1 V) k p1 M0 u" y5 L$ Lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard& z% M2 M* a# v _5 e9 _
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
4 a! _" h, t c* `7 x7 tFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
6 I0 O, _/ C Xcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50+ s: D! ?9 g) D) J
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 _) E- |2 \) }3 k" D
* H! ?8 h2 f7 Z/ D4 Y# o9 c <<2 L7 h7 I+ |0 b# o2 |. R& p
Highlights from across Canada:
" w0 B8 ^' X# ~( Z# j* E! N
$ n8 @' {; _2 _/ [- ]( C - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has8 m3 T8 w; k5 G: S# w" w0 ~5 Y3 t1 L/ z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing' a: c7 I( g2 b" F2 e3 f
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
# ^6 ^; C6 Y7 o& H only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: Z: k e% V( d8 m% r( h since about the middle of 2007.
3 H% z m% b- \- t. x5 q - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
) a% U$ F2 ]% @6 B& m! l; V frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to& @% J4 Y. [- k0 r
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
( R2 ^* _+ l; A/ R8 c largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
/ X5 T H% O9 i: D' F) D poor affordability levels.' B7 M' N* \4 m, v3 @' V" H
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 F. F- @- |0 P, Y, L3 K- } vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 L8 c0 t4 [+ w& u' O7 e- n* m
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
8 d2 X9 a/ ~. N* v: p* `+ R2 { Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to0 n) T# c# }# X9 O6 Z
minimize any downside risks.' P- P8 ^5 {% e. {' @2 ~& o4 y
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market% u& ]' D$ O0 h8 R" R R0 G% N$ Q
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is" G- w+ M; P9 ^- O4 r* `9 ~
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, M6 [* \5 V1 h. J' r
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly" U% V5 Q' v. ^' L4 h, V, j
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.4 q$ K1 @) J" H" k5 W! r3 x' M" b
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in, k9 W. ^6 k: y* Y6 N1 G
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus$ D$ [5 R4 Y- `. w1 v0 Q
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up5 l6 p& k- D6 Z6 V4 a0 o& a: s
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be0 X) R. x. w0 }- A- v2 @
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only Q: g9 L" {8 I6 R
modestly in recent years. V: J6 ~4 F6 |/ n* b
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
: n4 Y2 Q( u9 n" g% i; T general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
0 ~# x+ T$ \$ ], M8 q+ ? spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
# h/ A& R* l: R) ]4 V price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
: V8 e% e/ A" b$ ?# P% \, \" c# Y" l following two years of deterioration.
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