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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC : S: T+ S$ o) J; O1 p) t* A
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
, i: y: I0 c5 ?1 a9 i! Umiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
8 D+ M6 M& e+ L3 d8 bgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
& T3 F# L# ~7 y5 V7 ~$ T6 M7 L4 baccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
+ Y, k/ D9 p0 f9 q% C* z "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
8 X6 ]5 g+ W: [1 U* n$ Zsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% c+ w" u; u1 P
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability2 F. W+ [' r: Q4 G
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
0 m& z5 W* J- p2 f. e RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 \, O6 h5 z( K, z4 Tworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: }5 _, F) A/ v) H' Wwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
' V7 g* ?- n# ]0 E9 |. t; _sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes." Q, F% h: p2 J# h7 g7 f1 U
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& c' E. _# x; M& a5 {0 _7 ]3 T
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
5 f1 j, j9 H: i ^% f. Q% \" Ghome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
" V! K" {$ c5 n5 r8 N3 Z- \2 _Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the, P/ }: X! A% ^$ S
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
. H9 v) n% ]" F. C: q3 ithe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.' O5 G* s& B4 q
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
! C9 c( \- R9 [may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
: U* |9 @/ J9 z8 m& e4 H4 nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
9 ~) b: N1 b+ W+ P! phistorically depressed levels.+ ?3 u ^5 l& Y- y r! W
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
, ^0 |: i2 D0 }8 s5 {( p/ @of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 K( A9 X+ u" Y6 K0 {, M ^. G: Hprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the) G. C+ b l2 t" {) M& ^5 N
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) ]5 N9 j& M) } s- Wenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
: i, I" }: W" s+ G' G3 B) Kmonths ahead," added Hogue.2 |; t% m$ G' I, Q
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 G2 D. b6 M" P
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
) a" i; u# _5 H) |* H42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.' Q( e6 p$ J. L; ]4 a
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ r# l7 ^( ^& m# Na broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these& u; I% P' b# d3 q6 t; D2 `$ I
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only, d# y, n. H% N5 r7 w; g' T0 W
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 s( i# r( b, C/ D; ~% b4 Q
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" o* V: w8 b/ U2 l0 H5 h* ~
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ a2 U0 |6 I! P* F* F* w3 D3 _1 ?
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented2 I# c5 g0 x* @; B. z
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# u; Y# [) ]% Q" G3 i$ S x" rcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
2 U: W7 K3 u8 d/ \1 `1 V! LFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! ?* C; C ~8 n! Z0 m9 o5 H( G6 @
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50; G6 l u7 e( _8 H/ ~! G0 F- H. I
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
5 b& E* c# u0 ?7 }+ @' M, v0 F% }4 {9 \# E: t
<<+ A" g& h- g6 O$ ?$ Z1 _6 T3 z& y
Highlights from across Canada:* W5 V; A% i" r4 [; g/ ]; m. n
/ Y0 y! Z" H4 k* u0 k4 ?; W/ @% M - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
# h" O u/ z$ l& h/ I intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
, Y1 ~! R2 C' W! I home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
1 _9 z# I9 h2 U- B* w only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track# ]: h2 X+ i8 x# ]
since about the middle of 2007.
2 Y$ f8 c! x/ Q9 M2 { - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the0 B& ]3 B/ R- `% u0 f0 }% n4 A( d
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
/ K9 @% { q2 Q' ~& H p* { decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) t, Z1 Y- d: e Z* ^/ f/ u. o: S largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 {' i f. X- J/ f; V, ^- n poor affordability levels., z$ ?" [* i( {" @1 b
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ h- ~- y# t/ E& u, u3 y/ f
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
; ?. W& Y) I. X6 C+ r8 g7 C7 ] prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
& N. I5 M6 S" P" D1 k* D Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
, Y; A4 t' {1 w: \9 q minimize any downside risks.! L' }+ f) }: q- R2 {- G4 z( b
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
! k0 c! R! X2 a+ l+ E conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is# u2 C' {9 M- P8 L
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
) u( J% Z) @7 E( K! w 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
& {% r8 X* d, s; i being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ @1 F3 q( M$ u% W
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
" j) i$ Z Y2 Q: Z; n Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus1 }2 v" [1 w' p. ]
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up0 ~+ B8 v- k9 }) \ S
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be0 t1 W- C7 F# ^5 ]
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 L9 \7 y) A) a B; a% h
modestly in recent years.* l7 \6 R( y! B0 f% e4 s
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the( g G' s& p4 o4 x1 A: z
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 k! S% L' N# Y& N
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ V, c \6 K+ c( }* i
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
8 N( O* x$ c6 i+ i0 ] N z following two years of deterioration.
+ k+ g' I7 Z( L2 I/ n+ V( ` >> |
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