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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
- k0 R/ D) X+ J) \/ V, x" }2 W+ c TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 t) n# _9 x! ~3 m, ^: @& G) Hmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
! F9 W: ^. V H! I& H1 n1 Xgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
8 @0 K' s8 W0 n, s- {according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
$ `+ c; }5 G. ~5 b! r; J/ G! ^5 p8 m "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- B# C) P. C. i& o- C+ Gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is# a" i7 u; I/ g; x. r
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability8 e" G6 T6 G+ K1 c( s
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."4 y( T+ F) P8 z- A z. T
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' @: K m7 g- I' M% r
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
# n+ f/ L& ]- kwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have" C* [. s0 W$ b0 z* J9 x
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
' ~. \, }9 B4 U6 w The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 b: z' R* p+ j# j4 t# c/ W9 X2 pproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. b4 m7 p8 n# Y6 Vhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
7 \! E. S5 ]( i2 vAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the2 K1 e( f9 w; [! G
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and. P2 b" `' A# z$ _' N9 ^0 L5 \
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
0 i5 H" d( P7 N According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets* F6 T, f0 N8 h( U5 a' C7 Y
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in4 n5 [& F+ w, l/ z& I# X8 d2 ?
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at7 v# o5 x' l2 `; A: c, Q; ~
historically depressed levels.% d( f, ?1 b- R+ n
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
8 K" \2 M: D: q* _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& G$ N* H, E7 T8 U. x( d
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 [8 [! ~9 x( l1 I
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: H/ M! M8 D! denormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* v. x. \" @$ y4 q5 V; [
months ahead," added Hogue.' G1 C+ w& ^0 [7 a& U5 M
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
) M# y7 M9 U5 Qcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary& o7 m6 W' P' ^% q5 x$ l3 R
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
* p/ G4 `" T9 @; o$ p The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ C( } C+ X# s ~( E( pa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& y1 G9 V' S) O v" ]cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
' b W( @) c4 b* A2 d5 a2 Q; ?0 t6 Gtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
# C0 g) y. l" X The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
% }: [" l4 v( _- D6 pbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property. h1 E. ^; K l, ^. J& F7 V3 C3 Y, A
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
# z8 h* l, i% C- n' Lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
7 ]* i+ w4 C$ Y3 {/ Dcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home." s( J0 k, w. @! c1 a+ l% l
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
% E( G" P1 X4 @7 \costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
- \( K) g' q6 N. a7 sper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.: I2 q% G# N0 ?
4 a. X: W* d& Q3 u2 s# [ <<
0 n9 u( A# l3 u% j9 Z Highlights from across Canada:
# W; U) D. b1 }7 }& S, m6 }' X8 P* n. N. F; g
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
+ J6 |& s. m6 Y2 D8 o0 q. { intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" G4 c5 W9 ^6 D
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' o. h5 z( g) a3 K0 g- g/ Z$ L
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
* Y U9 m1 S) ~) e since about the middle of 2007.7 c. N% e* W0 L* J3 o7 i$ W
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
! d8 Q& H c. L) ?7 `, j3 U1 t/ { frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to4 T! n3 ?% E5 O: |, n
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still: C% w2 |+ |/ ~4 J5 h- j8 e
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
; Q% y, _& F. `! O' Z. k* q poor affordability levels.
; U8 e8 w0 Q* t* n' s - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
* I, Q+ g+ B( @ t, {: u$ k! f% D vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
, i! r, ]$ n% D* v1 _! S% Q! A prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.' R5 M7 i3 q7 l, p
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to: \$ L/ S, f7 Z; R) J8 M& d2 D
minimize any downside risks.
3 c0 y6 z! Q5 g - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& o4 K/ l; @# n- I! X
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
" @3 K- Y; Q# Y0 w, Q/ A unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ K; W0 Q8 ^7 Z' x, O 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
; e" L+ H, F( K) S) ]; h N) D being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.9 [# U) b+ Q- l3 i6 S
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in+ ?" S0 k; }& m# ?' N3 D2 _
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus+ f& J; J& U6 o' g4 f. ]. B
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
* G+ A' _, U7 J( V: l0 @ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be# [# {2 ?, T) _# _2 ]8 r
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
( z6 n" z2 p; X modestly in recent years.
) j- n* }, D6 i6 q8 o8 p - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the8 ]; f! l8 ^8 q
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot, e6 ~3 \# o- ~+ ?
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward9 ^9 Z0 A1 O$ J2 m4 s! m3 k
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability" S7 i2 b. _1 D5 B* `
following two years of deterioration.3 v: T; P, L. P: q' X( L
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