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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
h- x L! j" K/ X TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' B. ^3 v6 z# d# I3 N
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
( C5 u6 ?8 Q4 i: ~# wgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
& a( @8 @, {2 c ?! z1 L- h F @according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
4 l, _" K; C k; R# g- k3 [' i "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"4 l1 K6 _$ G/ A, p& K
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
+ [0 {* D& `8 Jimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
0 N/ }3 X3 t" E# y3 j+ \ Dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 e& r) `# X7 m6 l% b RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 Y! z3 G( y+ V% Zworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 s( D2 M9 W( y8 [2 F& E Z2 W
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
: J% `) E& Y* { o; v) ~! Psustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
2 ^7 `9 [5 }; p; E! v, A8 h8 Z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the, [3 C+ P* t- g
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
* m- @$ U" l/ x1 K- F: t qhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 g% o& ]- [$ o/ K) U) _$ l3 I
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the; @$ o6 [' p: j9 a
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and) y' A. U# c4 ~8 s
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.; g; f7 \ v3 a( G- R/ z9 _
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets' d6 K! h$ y( b) k& G
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
& o3 p, j3 K2 B. T0 M. Z' fthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
: ]: Z2 S0 ]( Fhistorically depressed levels.6 _5 P: ~& U; C& V+ [3 V
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, X' }3 V( B, r( E
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 \* J8 }$ c- Rprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, W0 @4 T6 @8 s5 B' n
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% H7 N7 N$ k" y. K/ a+ [! Lenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ Q" g& S. c8 O g# ]! W5 j- ?months ahead," added Hogue.
& h" f9 B( }% Z X, ^$ s' n RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
% _, `8 x# j Qcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary$ V: T7 d" ~2 W9 |1 S/ j' J3 W
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent. B2 I+ Q- u+ _: w: T( m* q
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for( I8 k* J; ]6 f. z, o, S
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these1 Z F8 b- i/ o4 B% N. P
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# W. p( n7 t/ {
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
- V) F4 K$ q, Q, E The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
( k$ ~1 F) N% `, a9 Obased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 M* L% z0 J H ] U6 y; ebenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
9 O' ^9 b7 O7 r; [' c3 Vincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
4 ~9 o' y! Y' b5 a- x7 X4 tcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 E `3 }4 G+ a: u% wFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership+ S& [) i2 l6 _8 {
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
3 O8 n( m9 B6 u2 A8 l3 ]per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
; @' [5 Q* w- `
/ T6 p) n2 b9 J, G <<
" j. D% m" e) a7 ? Highlights from across Canada:
- m+ s$ O! c3 J) t+ O t+ a; K- ]! t' ]/ O+ U$ t
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) R' y+ g& c+ `
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 L, a3 M+ T% j, q8 \9 N0 v
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound" ^3 e$ e0 A" {! G+ e) A2 I
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track8 T% b6 ]5 \ A3 F$ H
since about the middle of 2007.
2 \8 T! h0 Z3 e) |; P - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
# G( k+ {! y( P: o6 N2 v1 M frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to8 [2 |0 c4 B- ?" @2 f, P1 J
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still% ^. l( _/ Y+ P- Q1 X
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely7 K# n! J' s, a# Q0 d6 E
poor affordability levels.' f. t, Y5 \: c7 @4 s) h+ X$ y# D" b
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" B3 o6 e& x. |
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and3 l1 a9 u0 H$ [% x% W& I3 E) ]2 g
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly. g6 U0 E4 e+ ~0 |, k0 m) V9 k
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
8 J' ^ |) L& g# S% I1 p minimize any downside risks.
! W+ d, j( G6 j5 Y. j0 D$ w$ T - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market# d6 V/ ~: g! i+ {1 E+ ?4 V
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
" g X2 h8 L+ A- C& ~. @ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early& a r& d% D/ P8 u! [- x
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
3 r$ V0 b- K( m, d being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ T) S$ K# p. L! V! a- |7 P
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in" }& O1 U) M+ n+ u) [5 f) i
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ P. o( t+ ^$ ?/ A# y% T5 o far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
& p6 @2 z4 o( o* Z& u/ y reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
6 Y. v0 H/ A5 ^' @, t; g2 ?1 d ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" |0 m1 @& Y$ m3 U, ^: X modestly in recent years.
! l9 F& K6 [3 j0 ~' ] - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the5 R3 F$ I% A! p7 m
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
8 w! |1 W; v7 J spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
/ `4 K% o N; f$ I% r! H price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability) r. t7 y9 ~$ @; y! f: S
following two years of deterioration.
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