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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( h4 o) P7 F* ], u& x9 D- {
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the/ w) H! s8 a, S: O
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
: B0 j4 J# Q( G4 M1 ugains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
' T; U! y% M2 f1 K: M2 _' zaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.% N+ H1 O3 k4 [) ?" m4 i
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"% f# \4 n0 ^4 z! m. e$ M
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
( ]' Q2 _$ K& U8 Himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability( k# c: J# u: ^! b
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
, l- K6 p& \' | `, g# {) j RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 F8 i) n, S& d5 x0 s; J
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 y( V T. [! ^; I3 fwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
4 y m, y4 _( Z3 u; A* gsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* C+ U J5 k( T( _/ E* d- s The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the- l* h0 }- M5 g( @" i& l9 @
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& y6 ^# n5 C" j7 w8 J# ]2 U
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.# _% G1 a4 W6 x& L
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the; q3 b( j$ g, ]' @5 y
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ T3 P# H2 q- V( ~. V# A
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
6 a/ {& J( M/ Y# t J According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets# S$ K8 Q" k2 O, n
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
8 I" e0 n1 l$ C) C6 T4 pthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
$ J1 P* H5 p, ?! |- |5 |9 K+ ?historically depressed levels.% ^( w6 d _, @; C' G8 X- f
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
* Q$ u+ e( ~; d* s) m( bof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House' P9 X$ ~: u5 \: l) o8 s6 J
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& u% c+ A* f- z* S: {7 g- V& }
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This8 N' p4 D" C; [; @" o
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
+ c& ~) G8 m) hmonths ahead," added Hogue.$ z7 \7 e: m) u, w$ a+ [
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest4 x$ B1 R1 b8 `, X- k0 Q$ h
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
* e8 h* _0 n( X( p& W! `42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent., a: I8 `0 @4 a6 O$ ^! z) b' I
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
1 Q. _- O6 Z8 a/ Y, [a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& L3 F, w/ P `! Pcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; o3 I4 Q8 ]0 I1 S0 f$ qtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account., O9 @; z1 ]0 o3 y# K4 y2 i' d
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is& _2 v) Q. H7 Z
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ h: V( a9 D( W$ h6 g" N0 Cbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
8 F; f! g" P9 P3 s8 ?6 kincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
4 q) {2 {# ?6 _# z# V( g: lcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.# i% P. P8 p; J3 |# h: \0 S! V
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
' L% A& o7 }7 Z$ M/ q2 j: ~; lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50. j) ^1 d' w' f
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.3 E0 j. u2 k. O0 g. c# m
7 p( P) }# Q8 Y3 g0 f
<<$ }' y6 ~' [$ n* b0 O
Highlights from across Canada:
: ~5 O+ U2 y8 V$ P) X) p' b$ |0 E5 L& _; d, O
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' d8 o3 T& R1 A0 I& u
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
4 j7 @" n, K. q0 ]0 P5 S5 {" \ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: k( B/ {) M. ^5 M
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
# L) R- m" w- \9 } since about the middle of 2007.7 A* o5 H# ]2 n$ y# S- t8 Q5 g
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the$ X8 H/ M! R% o D {4 c$ b
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 h, w7 o4 O% X/ ]
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still' j! x/ n& U$ ~! a; I
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 b# U& b0 A& ~7 @* l: { poor affordability levels.
; |8 y9 `. d$ {& | - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
- E) t: W3 K: h; B% F8 R vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 {9 X4 C1 Y8 S0 w J
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.7 v- C1 g5 y3 Y4 h) Y+ E
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
( E; f1 k$ ?5 E' V# O0 K# @ minimize any downside risks.
) \3 p* L# C1 a - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market- H. o; T2 e# b' z' }5 W5 ]! c
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. O: [6 }8 i5 F- i' Q/ Q6 F7 \! q unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
) D- o7 g {# { 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
- \1 T5 z/ O, L; g L being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.' F+ y/ T$ X& | }. t/ `8 O
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in r" A6 B! W* F1 A9 W4 y- C6 w) G
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
5 f0 o" r7 O& R5 r. F far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
5 l2 B5 X, @% U" ]% v reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! T5 ^* {* |. o% j, D3 U ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only5 R& R O9 I" i& e! }
modestly in recent years.
' ^5 P6 w2 U4 }/ ? - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the0 I; M# d9 P* I
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
! U$ z" o- L$ C* p! C& [* n1 G4 E spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" O ^2 Y, L& T6 p5 k1 G
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability q; I: c( J% {& Q) r# [- m% T
following two years of deterioration.6 n. w7 f: x" B
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