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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
8 C$ R9 t/ i4 t: j0 ?+ H TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
# [7 \5 B& W7 j: H3 t- Q6 xmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive2 n5 e* W' C. ]2 G5 M; ]: Z2 `* T
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,& B1 u" x4 J! i5 z% d# r# ^: R2 u
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, e% ~: k* ^5 p& m: U" d \ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' ] I" T+ J8 i( T5 m, M5 Esaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
$ q* l1 L F/ n1 p, |improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
/ H4 u9 ?7 I7 v; u+ M; |measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
" J7 Q. A v! l, Z RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
2 J# A+ n: \/ T: a. e6 }worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,) ]6 A( P4 b/ M1 N) `( y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have7 {& O) w$ `: p3 X( A( c( Y
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" k, w' h& ^' _- c3 g* d1 B The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the( S+ E* s8 O% Q7 C" c7 Y
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
; s, u- e) z d Chome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008., \' X9 Z- v1 B; Y9 ?4 \8 ]; o' H5 a
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
+ \2 J' I" |. m% z" Istandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and5 O: z, x7 p; Z- }
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.! h4 M4 b& Z/ O$ Q* n
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets+ t0 g- q! G, L' n$ F2 | f0 A6 [
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
8 I6 G c. E5 S" n$ C: mthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at5 U& K8 z# T; m$ b, E" b4 b
historically depressed levels.
3 [! `6 q9 y: g( g Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 B8 g1 b$ \: @0 b; |of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House1 _. K% |+ z' t% v
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
3 p0 T4 z9 j4 Ahands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
# V0 [3 b6 C$ K C" Wenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the/ `) @/ J& L# a! r2 L0 [# O3 o) @
months ahead," added Hogue.7 y8 I$ _) I$ s+ @
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
2 O, C0 e' u1 tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary/ Q: R# j, m& b. E' f! B
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 o8 Z* g: \1 `8 O }* Q
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 V. f+ _1 b7 `& V( A
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these$ e: p2 L$ Y/ a$ |& R, V9 v
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
) F! d( k3 @$ S/ _( i/ ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
, J5 B% ?" y) U# j1 [6 }& ^ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ t: Q: J$ W) C9 M2 `, |based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
' [2 m- e& _- W. [6 ]$ Wbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
. \8 h1 u1 A ?' ]. \4 s7 k5 iincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
5 n8 m- V& Z# Q# w4 t4 |) econdominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.1 O2 T9 v9 Q" |' D0 j# J9 f5 L. z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership I1 P$ B ]0 ]
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
6 O" f& ?& p& N; Z$ z v( pper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 k1 d0 ~- g) |+ R) _3 [5 y# Y
# m/ W: v/ o7 H/ B8 p! O
<<
4 Q3 B3 n! S. w: J Highlights from across Canada:. e7 P) K* T" e* n& Z7 o
, Y0 c$ g& f ? - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
) L5 d3 {+ I, `: `* A5 a intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing7 N9 e. F: W6 V7 w% } c
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
; ^. s0 D' w7 {7 z/ e. i6 W only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track: S( p) {4 R! I6 d, W9 _
since about the middle of 2007.+ q! n6 |; o( |5 _% P/ A3 B
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& @( V0 K& z! k! P
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ J2 b+ K) M# z$ L/ l decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still6 S4 f: h! M8 l$ n1 r: x( x( L$ k8 p! V
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely- V x) A1 h# v8 K( f
poor affordability levels.
8 w5 T. f, x, \7 h4 H4 E - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
! D0 ~6 l7 S- e$ [9 G" D/ o3 a vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and+ F3 H; d; ~2 `; a X9 O+ p# Q5 D: N
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' P( L% X, Y$ C2 e; E Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
4 b0 M7 R( w. e/ Z, z5 { minimize any downside risks.
+ C" Y. k5 T! v! D2 A I - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
) z4 a3 i3 b6 h6 z/ Q' `+ G% |# G conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
/ y6 U7 [! K0 V' H2 t unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early {3 V! W: C+ H- \4 A v
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
. V: U& F5 U5 e1 |$ Z9 E N' f' f; Y being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
`# U* \( B x7 C* e - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# N7 O4 b% l- M, `/ p+ Y/ R( U
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus% V/ n) x* P+ ^
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* a' _8 p& I% m7 h& l
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
4 x3 O0 n4 L8 k' i. P. F ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only) v2 ?4 N/ U7 ]
modestly in recent years.
8 h9 u, b* E+ y( _9 v - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( H! D; v z& i* R$ s general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
/ H! y1 j" k2 t9 g' V$ s& r. P spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
/ T2 Q" x4 S& J y5 F2 B price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
$ @+ t. O, Z( a d6 z! V following two years of deterioration.
7 N+ C4 e. `$ j- _9 f. ? >> |
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