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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 j, h+ \7 E+ q+ [' v/ ]
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' \: f+ Q! p. v% [, E; T
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! H9 G5 T& C7 m+ {
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( i: h4 v/ P6 z. m# q# |
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
% h5 U/ h5 E2 d, M. _ M. z "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
7 J1 d* K |9 I6 B( Z2 @% xsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" q; p9 r+ g& a( C$ fimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
; ]5 L7 m* j& Y, I/ R- y( K3 Ymeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; s1 n+ T# U' C$ m w RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is" c0 u9 i' O- p4 f- G' y$ W2 Z0 N
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 W7 W' @; |- g" V" c, O7 r4 w2 Kwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 G1 v* V3 K' X
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% ?, C' B4 s2 Q$ @' u0 x0 Z5 ` The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the. z: k* S9 y2 v7 P: M& c, _
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. t' A! L* v8 Thome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.8 b6 }1 a4 E1 K4 A! L. e8 Y
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
9 ?8 d" g$ M, `standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ J# J8 W3 ]* [2 ?5 ]
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.1 \$ L$ t0 r# x" H( b" |- N U
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: y0 \5 b Q: imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in# {7 n% y2 S( f& [
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at* v, p; f& E8 |
historically depressed levels.
$ N) X4 q3 r' y" ~8 ]0 [& z6 p. I Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
+ E' i1 U/ V. }1 b' N' Kof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
7 W: \/ I0 `* I! B6 i* y+ Vprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
, Y/ ?% k2 x! J7 Q, S |% Ihands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This% d" M( M* P! F& ~+ {
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
; a- Q* t. D$ R' G! n1 Mmonths ahead," added Hogue.
* S4 p( Q2 ?8 I3 M' }5 b, b RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! r1 d+ P) D& j7 X& ` K9 W, ncities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary# U! M1 h+ y( F. O6 X) A1 J
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
]- }. [, k* [7 k/ ]1 H" b The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. U% g2 ^6 z- d, p9 X
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these3 g* y% R% A+ z# b* P' A3 i. k% T
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only4 @# M( t: U' z' m2 X8 w5 A% k- Q
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
3 v/ N$ X& W. F0 ] The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is' o3 @. i0 k! x- Q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
6 Q3 x: J; }+ o, Y$ r) Y$ Mbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented+ b1 h+ I4 d4 c' m- Z* @( h; u5 v1 W6 T
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard& ^, f4 h) y" L% t2 {- |" K+ y7 M
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
/ i* ^& F! [& _& m+ }, j2 O% wFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership. R! |9 x$ V+ a9 O# O4 G1 ~& X
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
- i+ ?% h; U! t1 Jper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 b: L+ Z |3 `; [2 Y
2 S1 ~, d2 E2 I6 U( j) f# } <<
7 X7 }* m4 Q8 ?4 Q6 f* E2 M, M Highlights from across Canada:$ `/ R: J) |5 V& a# ]( K
! H" C. r) b' e7 i
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has0 \( F9 n/ l; q# z$ _& d) ~! d
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
4 B3 e6 R. r" f' \7 W. r) |3 N7 G home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
! k* g) w5 A: } only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track7 }; y+ T& u8 g' @
since about the middle of 2007.
7 a' n9 ~# G. ^5 @4 S3 k: U - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
; B. \& q; F9 q/ @1 C+ o3 A- O$ u frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# w3 u+ X: }. Q5 z# G3 z& { decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 z$ e7 X# b+ }" H largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely5 o- ~; m% W+ `5 s' y/ s- O
poor affordability levels.
+ @7 q" t( r% d* I4 u* e - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& l# c8 E J; |( U$ D' [ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
! f' ]/ ]0 [- j! F4 t+ K' ~- j4 L prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.4 z# C' [ m0 b/ f* V6 i- A( {
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
1 [+ H/ c! |2 ] _" T6 R' ^ minimize any downside risks.% M* v0 {: ?. G9 p9 N, o( _
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market* Z! u0 i+ E; d$ M9 A d
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
2 F/ M' M7 h- q& C) ]/ c unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
; @. p! _2 d0 ?/ \ Q, t 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
5 c2 l ]6 a; F being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
4 ]3 z, o9 L1 B- B4 N$ ~ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
; B7 X) y$ E7 y5 d; J" l5 |' N Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus/ n* y+ @! p, C# u% Q9 x7 p. _ O
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up( C- D, C8 m" Q& z9 W2 _# L- @
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
7 Q3 q2 r" [$ ]" q2 E ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
8 Z: P. r2 u& S0 S. Q modestly in recent years.
% y$ b- `" g) r$ H! O - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the" J% l6 Y, A, H
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot" f' J4 b( y- Z$ ]* f* I
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: I1 \$ B" h, k4 E K; ^- l) {/ ^
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
}" _" V, Z0 U4 r following two years of deterioration.% ?) S& l5 u ?; J8 b$ |6 W3 ?
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