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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC % m' I( U* T3 I3 W) ]' G
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 d; G; T2 X7 X4 mmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
# b; x9 b1 t6 q hgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,4 A8 n! R! ^" p, H
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, ~' a# S2 t& g3 l/ E "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! e9 C" v4 m$ U5 f1 _
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is) W5 H' g* R# p& [+ x
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 k# [9 r- ]& G7 W0 [8 Dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" F. M ~4 u6 X1 t" t% A( v% ^+ S
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is6 ^# z/ t; Y$ {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, H' o" v; v; G- swhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 X5 _+ p7 J: k3 U% S# ^ a
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.9 V/ e* a) s- m" J9 b( s6 @
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the! v* b) f' E2 }6 B, m+ O
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 H5 @0 w7 \/ c" q6 D) f% O4 nhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% @* k9 r5 E) e/ v; s) n i
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
) q1 ?4 U, l2 y8 ~2 s; l4 ^standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
4 U/ ^1 Y* r2 D0 n! R3 kthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
0 h. ^2 b6 H& |$ j According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
4 V9 M2 r7 D; z: M& q- s% N* d: `1 fmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
8 \: N( C- D P [% Dthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at1 i. A4 @6 R0 x" b$ J
historically depressed levels.# Q+ N5 x% ^ {: [! z1 H: r6 ^
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
: H g0 ]# ~$ iof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House/ M) }) R' i* S8 L& i8 _9 r! H
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the- i* |1 C0 w+ Y: H
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This- X& z5 I- c, |/ E
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the1 z( Z8 S' M( u; x
months ahead," added Hogue.& c& T6 P' t! M9 G+ |( B2 y% X
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
: B4 h9 v& R6 ]$ @cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 D7 P& D' V5 o/ J1 g+ t9 {0 W
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
5 ^0 h$ T7 W7 K. u6 U4 Q The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for: l1 [- H4 d' s" H; n
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these7 S4 S C7 S' K3 v; ^
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 b% P! e& A6 j \takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) {6 \; v0 H0 _3 w* f8 I: x The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is! e" W- }: ?/ g( f. Q0 G9 T
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ N% b/ U+ _6 f j q5 s: n
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented7 W0 K6 n: j3 M" X% v/ g5 T9 P3 t
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard% F9 b( ^# U: Z5 ^5 \
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.7 l; w0 k) v( M7 Z! H7 a8 ]# E7 g Z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
R3 u3 `4 u( w. ?: S9 ?3 Vcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 w; m- N7 s( N" b
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 Y1 E; [' x& t m% o, }
1 S8 j) m! ~, c' B% B9 Z" w: D <<0 R, \1 R8 d/ d2 A$ C; u
Highlights from across Canada:
0 v8 P( d% L+ R2 ]: {* m) N, D$ v, r3 F1 T/ X6 Y
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
1 j( u& R0 G1 x" D intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing1 R+ O6 I0 e' g. e- ]
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% p+ l% F D0 X/ k ]3 `4 p only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track4 v) ^8 a! }+ _( D0 K9 H
since about the middle of 2007.; v7 }, |, m; P1 F, k) [9 E. ^
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the6 N3 u/ n/ ]+ S
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
( [. r, B) m1 D5 |% d decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
& l. ^/ R8 W5 O; f; Z8 N largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely" m J7 W. Y0 x4 S$ c$ Y
poor affordability levels.' I! b9 p% \: H+ V" P7 N
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
1 |- W! U& z- L- `0 Z3 P$ u2 b vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ T u: }& P+ u$ Z, w) F( p prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" S, ~! N& f" k: r) e; a' N Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 W& _. n5 c3 k" ^2 ~3 G/ C
minimize any downside risks.
; K+ o( X+ U6 H& p t& F - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
/ d: H8 _# k3 A3 Y. f0 K8 @7 ]& R conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is3 a, {) s" e: r J: e ^
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
. _# V0 S3 a$ l; \# m( h: O 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
$ A+ \* B+ N. T* L7 E) I being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& h8 l0 M1 ?" q6 {" W5 Y9 x
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in. c, W& `+ I5 X! u- h/ U8 S
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus5 b5 t- w& ^( ]" G2 X: y2 O
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. Z2 r' r, l. ], O# p& K0 j reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
% r' _) S8 k" e; r7 Y, U ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 k- Y- i4 q+ r' [$ E0 T: o6 }
modestly in recent years.1 h- O# e" f6 U7 m" W0 N# D6 N1 l
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
& _/ `6 T) j* \/ |8 o general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot k, \2 \7 \' T2 Y m6 N+ a" R6 e
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
' r; E3 q, C4 i9 T3 D$ d0 K* M7 J# K- J- C price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability4 Y5 [9 B& e! h' U1 \5 \4 q
following two years of deterioration.
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