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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
" F) G. q4 a0 V* M TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the, k" C# x2 e& w' ?2 e, K
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
: F! [2 R: B' |, \( p0 ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
7 }3 l, \. p; v. w0 l3 ^according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.- J6 I3 h6 D% O2 w2 V4 {
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& I2 @$ r) P5 a" ~$ g( Xsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 ^- J+ D6 [+ e1 b( Pimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability- J; K8 Y, l7 d- ]+ X p
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."5 p% ?0 S8 s) ?
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
+ M( Z& Z/ v5 [0 o$ B2 Fworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
6 L2 }0 `7 ]; {6 M7 pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have. U5 H) n2 B K/ g4 ]
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes., X# J; I+ [, I$ d5 ^: A
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 J4 q! o) y. y9 k' ]- O5 X
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# T: k0 {) ~7 b
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% A) w; i8 D" m
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the8 U* j4 X. q9 r: n9 J
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# e% l U. x* W3 u; p2 p
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.: k' r, ^: E2 S- T/ h' k
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
7 o8 r# l( S1 t3 H+ }0 q% pmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in7 D8 H) p8 j$ D, S5 o
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at5 n1 a2 G2 _" v G
historically depressed levels.
( ?; k. o. X+ h" p Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
( }6 z U$ t) Yof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
! z& ?- M0 u, |$ {9 Cprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the: m2 O7 `- }. \" ?
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This# A* O1 ^/ V/ l
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the8 r2 V, P1 |8 t* f
months ahead," added Hogue.9 O( Z; n- w- ^9 X3 P$ o* x+ g
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest. t- p m3 Z" i m7 j$ l
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary ~. s1 g: N0 U( ]
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.: b+ K s/ o s) g! C5 v! `
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
9 m% S, Y% a* V! p# s1 U% b6 Va broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- e5 H$ z/ @5 r1 M& p* |1 z( M
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
' J: P: A6 C# m1 otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.' {, O0 K, \8 {* \6 Y
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
% ~1 ^8 {9 _1 z- ubased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
! }6 s$ g. T; F* E3 ~( gbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
4 I: i+ X2 O; c* z Sincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard- O3 t% `. l1 l
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.; Z9 L I3 I! \! ?0 \( Z5 F$ q+ p
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
; p, Z; Z& F0 N8 i7 e2 kcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
5 M+ e& u3 F2 O, y2 iper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.+ _0 f i* k0 I- s6 M0 ^
2 F3 R. g* z& n' }& F1 `& k3 V8 u <<. |3 O* R. J. B& Q9 @' g3 |+ I
Highlights from across Canada:$ f# q+ v9 T1 T' m3 e
# R7 V X# [$ h* Y+ q- s- I - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has5 f' w3 N# J2 r7 L
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing# s' |0 _7 c" G: [4 c7 M- [
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound7 H) s G8 v+ A8 f
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track2 L7 y8 p5 i0 E& F8 Z# ?# b
since about the middle of 2007.
4 E2 H: ?) n# C9 o: D- ^ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the1 e4 y$ O! o2 A# c& a
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to o8 T$ T6 Y. r# i$ i5 I, c
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still7 \; C% M8 Z/ J
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
1 h/ I9 C6 ^# T& z, v5 v" P+ h poor affordability levels.
, j7 Y, j; j% q5 X0 o# A" _1 X - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) |# I8 Q) v% p$ i/ T" E
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and) R- N0 L, f6 f p
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.2 _- i* Y( Q2 E$ Q
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 Y0 o C9 C: z
minimize any downside risks.$ S* K3 o( g' b2 i: o
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market7 h3 w+ z. ^9 T. ~3 M4 }6 y
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 v- b7 _; g! d unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( X) t" T* B0 s# i& H2 C# {. i @
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly* [- _1 O- F/ s8 N
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
& @9 p+ o+ [4 x3 U6 w% U7 F - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! M& B7 i& ]* ~( x Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus/ l- m2 c6 [+ D4 W
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 O: g8 s; i$ C9 x( }
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be, |5 Z- d3 l9 v7 U
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only: o1 J" S: e o1 T, U6 n
modestly in recent years.1 }: U$ U; k6 t3 i* x
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the5 |* \! V! C9 H6 C: I/ m: i
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
5 g: w. e5 w% e8 x8 P spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
; y v; n* ~" G( a. T price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
/ m0 s* I# ?7 L9 [* c following two years of deterioration.
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