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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
+ f s8 f* Y/ e, ^. g8 A6 X8 m7 t TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 L& R6 W% L9 d& n7 l* X8 ^ E1 b
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
4 O* k- C/ O- q' Q8 @gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
9 i, J+ d9 m [( paccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics./ q" S# I* w9 h# U; K, H$ S
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
8 P6 s2 C) ]# T. H( f6 O, D& Bsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 ^6 z' m& i s/ T9 X( _improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability( c" c+ z6 B0 s. {" F
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; l7 I! A+ b6 T RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 B+ i/ q1 H+ O
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% y# \# W& T4 O- v. ~6 H% Lwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
8 e; p3 x! s8 `sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
1 g. k- O2 A, c; P1 q3 Z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& H. x. {3 K8 \3 q' W8 H2 }
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a$ n: o5 s A( h+ y& h# G- i4 |
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.2 X0 k" R7 K$ p, n2 ]4 v
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
/ ^) ], x' J. U8 I- y, p6 T$ hstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
" r$ |3 P+ h: ]the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* V+ Z# D- O0 I& ^- N
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
( L3 p( q+ D' p2 J( @/ U- G |% Omay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in! c4 x) t1 Q0 n$ {1 _
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
% M5 l1 d% ]( n0 c( h" O' T, vhistorically depressed levels.5 i' d/ I: p( o+ c) o0 D7 o
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost0 K9 z' x( h. {) t, N( a( C0 }
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House* Q4 Q: J6 f* g& b6 A G" _
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the1 T0 Q2 b3 w2 g
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
* p$ q( W- r/ q# F. b% nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# Q; q, D- l+ ?months ahead," added Hogue.) [8 p' b [7 S# I7 F- h
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest, L: A X) y1 A' Q% v
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
) q7 p, K) Q2 ], z0 N8 h8 G42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.! a4 P4 F/ \* R4 Y! V% Q9 x
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
# n5 \) N8 f1 N, ]# G& ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
- o% k. I9 B J& }7 pcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only9 Z+ v5 j+ `8 t# p B+ q' N$ U3 g
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.+ _% l+ ~9 t9 a1 _
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" l1 b3 ^! C5 ?9 @
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property4 d' r8 Y |7 u( J7 Q
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
7 s- A- `5 l+ R! jincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
% ~) r0 v, t8 m/ n- }9 G% f& n, tcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
$ n6 F' B# V2 W4 d: o* }For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
/ x. `9 P: k b; m7 j5 L$ b7 g* D3 Scosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 L$ g2 v9 Q9 x: D/ t3 B: N' B5 |; n
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 f4 `$ X4 F5 X! c& H
' \, u+ ~1 q% r$ i+ U <<
3 }) \) e" _( k3 |9 _9 P Highlights from across Canada:
* H; ]( p* y- e# t+ i3 V- Q" F( g
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has. z0 j1 r7 O- x) P6 Z5 z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
+ V/ G( S7 Z4 i% a1 j2 z home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' ]6 O7 F+ Z* r I2 `
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track. j; }; R, l- u1 d, p( R7 i
since about the middle of 2007.3 a2 {' Q* _9 Z
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* G; z2 Q: O* Q) ]' v( {. F/ e
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to) \5 K/ q, C, L ]- N) k
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 Y+ ^, f1 o1 I1 C! G1 J* D$ m largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely* B) P# I# r W/ ?, x$ d
poor affordability levels.
G9 n+ s3 H8 J; _0 \ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 v& p1 F/ D, ]2 o& Q% {1 W7 H vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ h/ R; \* H3 X" E9 D, D3 }
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
1 ]- r# R$ j: `: b Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
- J8 J# N. N, i1 D* E minimize any downside risks.
+ @# j1 J9 _) s8 y+ r1 C3 k, }& _ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market, _" S! y; {' A% n
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is" \. g/ i+ x1 p5 Z# G/ `8 R' U1 U; h
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
" n% D' j& G ]. r' @; C, M7 I% {' U 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly/ z. S9 [: F/ k& F- R! r" J
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- q5 ?# k7 r. C& |0 A - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in0 e8 J. @, A1 X: Z. I
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus( r: O( N! J' k2 S
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up( b2 f5 Q3 Y8 I( Y7 p3 i
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
2 `) _* i! s8 w+ T ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 q) B" H2 u, E$ {* x modestly in recent years.7 o( ]2 q5 X1 t7 S
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
+ y0 F0 N/ g2 t general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot: d) a' S( x2 H4 L
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
! _. o+ L& E3 H price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
; x. E H) N* b5 I; z% s1 Y following two years of deterioration.
% g7 E1 G. w* M( V* V+ c >> |
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