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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC + h. B. \7 p& \ d# ?" O9 V
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 i+ Z2 [ q6 f. Mmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive7 X5 S( d, q5 Z f R1 E
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,! o* s6 w3 O" Y5 O3 d; a- _1 A
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
! W( N" y" @, S# d% [! ?7 e "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
7 H# C. \' u# T8 X1 W& q: \said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 N+ {) I$ j) s$ a( Q1 c
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
( ]& W' @ V* u- K) I- J+ i+ y6 Zmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."& f1 i/ M# V, x Z$ D2 o7 D
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is" u: o T3 V* N7 [8 X0 p1 o- [
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
" K4 F4 g& {9 o5 `$ @which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
. G% d+ t9 v' osustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.$ a9 y- ~* _* P/ o; z; c
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the D. P6 t6 l7 ?6 `( ?- Z
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
, x5 l; E Y, ?& y5 C2 }) D3 Bhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.4 a a4 P, E Y9 t
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
6 f. A8 A; |" F& kstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and: L9 @6 v4 @( f5 ?9 }+ a
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.; p% A/ e" N w3 |7 i ?
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets m9 Z9 z5 [; {
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in6 I; E: J% l: X* D8 m+ q* a
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 ~0 ?+ L! P5 w o/ fhistorically depressed levels.. ?$ U d9 e7 h+ @ S
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 `* `( Z, q4 C1 Yof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
2 G' _- f$ X( iprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the; |3 u8 i/ s- Q1 P% h, V- i
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
' ^% a% ~' n% c, ]+ k* O5 ?2 {enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the4 h9 l6 Z1 M4 P, o: {
months ahead," added Hogue.
" B2 {; {( z$ f! [- a RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
7 a2 I! w+ [' f5 {# U8 R4 Hcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% K# m. _; v! r1 i1 z
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
; ?0 i5 q9 R3 A# m) W2 w1 l6 Z5 _ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 a- l$ |6 F b6 S, Y) B7 pa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these8 R6 f2 c7 V5 t! ?/ ?, f5 @
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, P/ Y! K3 A. Vtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 R: o, Y+ T, c2 l1 I The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" r- B# `% }+ a }7 i3 k
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; A2 l0 [6 w: j9 {+ ]8 c! tbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
: Q# f8 z! X% x2 N* s& R; {7 Mincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
. J5 I8 q) l5 E J, V) W8 @6 ccondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
+ m% J C6 g2 ]& r& g" rFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
' M+ r9 [% ]0 Q+ n8 kcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 I, ~! s0 Z% n) w, h/ s% @ y# ~" o, ^
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.' N+ Q f- F {0 Q: N* S
& x) x* s, \9 k& L <<! O1 I r6 a% ?8 r2 H8 @
Highlights from across Canada:6 o2 E1 G, M2 G
. L) k: g7 k/ |& i: `
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 |6 }6 v+ y1 j0 o' S5 | intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
3 l% p7 f( _% X6 a J. w home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
) N/ k% H0 N2 R only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track M# D7 f( E/ ~6 n% a; }+ J0 F
since about the middle of 2007.
/ F# n( K$ E4 V( M- [! z/ g; l: { V - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
* G+ [+ {" x1 ?0 m& @7 U) y frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
5 |# z0 X1 i9 p decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
$ t( @6 t' ? s) T largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ b2 m: o8 z6 | poor affordability levels.
- Q$ C9 T! k3 g2 t6 l" e - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" `) I: b; W4 a+ B# X1 Z i
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
6 o# N' w' X" u7 g8 A/ C prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
/ h2 U& h. b) Z: I- r2 ? Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to# r5 a1 P8 i7 M1 F$ H
minimize any downside risks.2 j7 h" p; Q' B0 g
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& I) Z7 Q o/ Y
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is' B2 l: b6 f; i! e L
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, S W$ d0 C# G- {
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
. [: O+ i, n' a being restored to levels closer to long-term averages. T- s0 ^' E: n; D- t8 i
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in3 _. K9 X, b2 p" X" B: I3 v
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 g5 ^1 M6 D; c( C) X) S far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
p$ N& _( p5 W$ P' A/ p+ ~ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 ^. [' v p# Z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only& h7 C& I$ \4 I0 j
modestly in recent years.& y, V( h: ^4 ?0 O0 [' g
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the% z9 X/ m5 e2 Q4 V
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) Q% K) A7 t7 I5 v spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
3 k$ k( ?$ K" W, z. H3 b! B price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability* S$ L& S9 m+ j" j2 a
following two years of deterioration.8 {9 |( ^# e% E2 I% u9 \
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