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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 1 Z( Z! W" o n* y4 Z) o3 [" Q
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ }7 Q1 m, u% @( e, J
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
# E* P: K3 q8 z! o$ t3 sgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,$ P" c: O' G9 v' D
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
# n3 d+ E) _; a5 d "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
0 R9 @2 C x" X2 lsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
/ y. y0 ]% ~6 mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability6 S1 z5 b( v' w8 A, s) y
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 c8 }5 z5 a1 N7 N$ ~% |& { RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ S# X4 j! i& T
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
+ t7 o) N @& R: @0 b# w! f/ Pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
& z% O9 f* A* D4 n* m! y& @sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.6 t' y( J1 S6 x8 `! S& R: G r
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the+ o$ Y6 f6 L0 R
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a6 A; a; _# D) R
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.4 A9 S' U1 _ h, z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
# ~3 k' b; Z, A; m) @standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
R- c* _& F( W" r4 s+ Q+ L- ]the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
- u8 f4 e( V3 I( Z According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
' i x# p" e' ~ b' j8 m2 Fmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 C$ `1 M5 |. P. C5 M7 L
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at7 ?- ]7 m2 l0 _7 {$ v
historically depressed levels.7 V" p$ N+ M; K; q: u8 q
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost' \/ Q. f1 j6 G9 x
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House" Q' W5 Q# l' d# L
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the" ` A' z7 Y1 Y$ G+ ~% p
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: O- g1 s2 h$ ~$ p# c2 benormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the$ \! I q" d- p4 g
months ahead," added Hogue.
% v6 X: O1 I. @0 W RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 a8 |; I* m |7 B
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary1 p; N9 _6 t: j/ M5 x
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.3 r1 n2 @: f2 P
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for9 L0 H" S# I( S; b s
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these3 k2 c; q% f- w) I' R! I5 T
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only0 u a, L/ a( H* L
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
# W0 {' Z7 A# W G The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is7 J+ x/ k: l/ K2 b) b/ |
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property3 ~+ u5 a2 l* c# G" e- c* e" w4 n
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented) o& ?6 U+ c) t6 ^! S8 h
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
' }2 U9 z" T* Gcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
! c! w# R: g# s0 }- j2 }For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
) `! w/ s5 t# M* dcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 x& o9 i$ A8 B6 _# r' H
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income., z! h' J# K. u
8 e8 v1 w! ~' j5 V/ Y1 v% c1 V
<<, {; a8 |/ A' B3 F
Highlights from across Canada:
3 W6 n+ M7 ^. G ~
5 K4 n' L# \; g7 z4 b - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
/ E0 Q. v- N8 |2 j* r7 Q intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
4 U" R1 s0 T4 I* u home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound) [7 ^$ K7 K0 j, A7 g
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track- N$ ?- c/ ^' y% `. N e: r
since about the middle of 2007.
& z3 y3 [5 ^* L0 w$ u3 ? - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the/ U) Q; A; A# g/ C: q9 M T0 J
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
7 D$ v% }% G1 W# j( B decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
1 Q7 z2 y' m' M3 b7 P: n largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* M1 ? E* ?" f5 g0 Y; f poor affordability levels.
K4 ?2 { O0 ~1 [7 e - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the: n7 N9 N! b/ H* D
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ V/ R6 H6 T; i6 m
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.& L7 ^/ y, O: x! }
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! N( t8 v( P: R$ R" `$ z minimize any downside risks.- O$ G9 E1 D! G+ `! g8 n+ h
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
7 K( ^" {* r4 o- ]' j* B+ A conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is1 q: d. X+ O0 a3 x1 V9 c4 a
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early o+ K0 J0 f/ [8 E6 Q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
! S; ]: L8 ~# R5 ~8 z$ u( d* ~ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
; A1 \3 M& y4 N: l. ]/ U - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
/ K4 _3 ~- j1 \8 l0 V Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 B3 h* { s/ V9 X8 I8 d# o) |: w
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ _7 s7 `# j% ~$ L
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# W$ C V, l A% m0 i ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
2 j) ~2 Q7 i$ l* a9 S" Q modestly in recent years.
2 a- x/ ?" U# y3 |! K" m - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the- I! z! K7 A' ]$ H9 M: M
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot$ H. Y s0 n) m4 Q5 ?/ M# J: o+ F
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward4 j7 j/ \5 }4 \/ H% u- \
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
5 p6 P4 j D: L, w. L following two years of deterioration.
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