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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( A! c' z- Y; B' i+ l. Q8 Q TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the C& m# v/ i; ~+ `$ M3 O
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive _# c" |: y' W7 A! U+ Q- [
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
9 t6 C! a0 _; t% W6 R$ uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.1 [; r( k2 q1 J' [ l
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"0 ^& P% R& w! R, D M1 H. f, L
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is+ q! V: b3 x3 i) T/ i, F
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability; B2 i+ M8 @: M' f$ g) \7 |
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages." z" {! Z( ~3 L8 G9 U2 o) e
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is+ {* [ y4 ^8 p% n4 w. j
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! A M2 l& K* j2 \# E+ @- lwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have/ z+ {; U1 {' Z) b
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.; x. I" G* z& ^3 R+ b
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the) K, j. Y& i0 J9 z# X! K
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
% c1 r3 Q: q+ |7 w$ ]: ~* ]( `home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.# R* y/ F e5 b" g! ^" T
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the4 f" w, z) h2 ?3 H1 g
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and! S9 |4 n, l" B
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
" n' T0 s2 v$ j# R! @8 g! }9 }1 U& a According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets% a5 K" u2 B! X' f- o4 g+ w
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in) t* U, m/ E; u
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
; J. f4 w7 l" ^8 xhistorically depressed levels.; a% w4 l. _/ N% H
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost6 Z5 W# f5 o4 k! W) z- j" s# r# t$ B
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House7 o a: u# q$ T& m
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
7 c5 H, V$ ]0 c# u Nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This2 O% R4 T% W8 {3 A: _
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
8 h5 q" [ c4 r, Q* w4 ?2 i( Mmonths ahead," added Hogue.# o4 O9 H3 z7 p6 C% J8 V
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! A9 g# G% Y/ i% tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
1 W& t; w; X2 O$ p4 }42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
* m9 d% k2 f, Z$ e The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 [2 H$ D! _' E2 O/ Y h, A3 n
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 w( w& m! i8 i) s' \4 Hcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only: ~6 d: B- m; u8 m. @" }$ n
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
; u+ b3 h3 j; ?- \ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
+ H! p6 c" X6 L! T0 {based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property8 V' ] \; t. N/ ?8 l3 X8 b
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
. X( R& W+ I- k- kincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 J t+ L$ p, T
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
: K9 E9 n G# jFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
* i: f* a" T. ]# F) rcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 507 `4 G+ U& `$ E! U
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.4 A, K/ B' f _- e- `, c
) H/ e2 t- k2 n0 J8 Z! C E <<$ S, y3 F: w# ~
Highlights from across Canada:- S: c4 f2 B5 {, [' F
5 d6 Y5 _) V% d l, b8 K& D
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
! G% L: G% M; J& W intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" Q# N! f. [0 x* g
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound* |( r. m8 p- R' ]7 O) s8 [1 l
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 k3 `. ~) k J5 r; ?' e' D
since about the middle of 2007.
3 J" @& e6 T* j - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
! ?) C) V5 s) _% h1 f1 L frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# d( m% f3 r6 O* Q decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still$ h/ h' o1 S+ ?% w1 q
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely: j! ~0 D y" ^! U |8 \( g
poor affordability levels.7 k5 L' I# Z7 N; L
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
3 ~* ]- X, ?9 ^ _" C% C Z vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
/ g3 q; ?# i1 ]8 S1 e prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; i' v* P) M+ \; n4 T% V# C, z+ O Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to9 L8 {3 ?& K; M3 k1 r7 l6 D( J; J
minimize any downside risks.
* C1 t. I& { z - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
7 `- Z7 c" I C; P' p3 P conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is# U8 y" ~% m2 C7 Z: k J" |
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ m; [/ E& f1 Q" |
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
( l! ^3 b8 E" K6 r being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
, y; X( n! e2 o& R8 B+ D - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# j6 r+ r4 {& U' { Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
+ `+ L! r. R! ^) Q+ o9 Y far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
) k, g$ w+ W6 z; _ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. ?+ _: _( [, j# x6 V+ i% i ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ r$ }. \; N6 n modestly in recent years. |% g& {1 ^, Z* Z
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( M; `$ p7 X! y$ e- a+ m' h general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
* Z, Y% s# z$ P# @& p6 w( \+ Y spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
# g% r/ ?. M4 m: E9 D price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability1 u7 m5 q- _( X9 E
following two years of deterioration.; r% b% V) w1 x
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