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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
8 b- w% ^; D2 z2 W; \7 d2 c. Q' {, L/ ] TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the! b/ k i0 |0 s& ^3 {2 j$ V& s
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive* A0 }) M) B6 a+ _! P
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,& ^, d. y3 F, f; J' S7 k
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.% f; n! k) d0 d
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"5 x, ]2 Y3 X* N' A. G/ a" H
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" ^4 Z+ V+ \) l2 b; s! ?% `improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability& W0 L' \% Q! c& g+ g
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 O$ g) U* e3 d1 i
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is& j, _( O+ U5 `4 W, q$ }
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 P! L* r$ T7 n4 X: N
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, A1 R& l3 Y% ^0 G2 osustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
$ V3 n' I( B$ ?: B$ @/ R3 R The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
1 g: J1 c8 ^+ }; l$ ^0 {proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a8 `5 R F+ A6 w$ U4 f
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.* K& r+ u) m- E' }# e' {* [
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the4 y5 s$ A2 w* W* y
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# O1 ~2 t; @- p
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent., ~' _; w9 v' r+ j9 j9 k
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets' }. Y5 c5 k( Q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
4 N6 @6 G1 ]! _. d; X( Bthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at7 b$ e* s% \9 F7 z& c0 H: L
historically depressed levels.
. z. c8 k2 t( U/ u2 r Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% P8 ?5 t D9 b5 Tof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House2 Y+ \- T% C2 O5 X4 E* M; L
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the+ X- F& U" @8 Z0 l: F- g7 C
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
5 {* f4 d/ R$ v- S4 Y) nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
0 ~ c5 V; n; K o) ]6 gmonths ahead," added Hogue.
' F, Y) y$ U: K) { RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% G `7 l# z6 b
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
$ A9 H$ V+ l. X8 g: [& ?42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 m9 J) Y( O9 k( y& X0 Y' b/ q
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) \* V; |; O! Y; T, _a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
. ?* R' l ?" X# Ycities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
. D' T( y, P' F0 Z, @% Atakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
9 s. m5 _/ c0 U3 ^. ?+ X) F The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
- t. y# d! z e5 \% C& X1 `based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
8 n6 v& V/ X7 j Obenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented" n% F7 Y3 F# H2 r' {
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
6 J# R9 e* a* b, a2 I1 j0 b8 d0 Kcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
% |8 Z5 w4 ]& A; pFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
+ O5 r; b8 A6 _9 Zcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
, g \- G5 `5 @per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
P' p2 O/ x( r, O) h9 E: |% q6 C- p+ ]# K" o+ H8 s. E
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% e3 P6 W! n: D2 E3 R8 G Highlights from across Canada:+ N% h# Z: d8 k* ]/ M/ t9 o/ k" C
# b: W7 V# z- ]
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has9 P* G: W% O @2 D0 \: A
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; {) P$ I0 j: _4 @ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound8 r3 R' t8 _$ P& x$ R! P
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
0 G+ L, a! B! i1 u! n- e since about the middle of 2007.3 P0 T7 ~% i4 f! r' ? B$ l& E
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the/ ?2 a3 C* u1 ~$ X. l- _* p) P
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 F: M8 h; d5 c9 x6 G, g7 j
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still; T' p% p- R& X* r8 {
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely7 H8 C% ^% F( t' ^
poor affordability levels. j- J { c$ A: J' t2 c
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
0 Q) `. n% W6 {6 S- l vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
& c$ L" W: a( c" M6 z5 O) ~3 e prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ M( d9 R. j {: k& a1 u* Y8 n Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to3 S i8 t3 t }
minimize any downside risks.
/ p. N+ [& X2 V' s) j# H2 K - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
4 _/ X1 R' b! O0 ~ O' @ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is* `$ |9 z9 i+ ^" C$ M0 w
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
8 R1 E6 M+ O0 ~3 p 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
* C9 ?0 a# |! p, k+ ]/ b( B. m2 m! w) Z being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.* \! }; `' N2 |: E% N" Z
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
4 G+ X3 b/ _! u% ]; T& L4 k Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
* m U! M* B& [" Q% a; t far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, n, q5 ?: n5 } reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be# f" J( k0 {0 e; ^" E! x
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only; O8 {9 e. u( F! p
modestly in recent years." q4 c: Y8 c$ b& h
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' p0 U# k3 i) c; m) }7 N
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# e$ U1 ]* O, |0 E4 M0 B spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward) r9 P* E0 n& N3 a& V5 w3 @0 N
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
: [ S5 P2 B: M. t) U6 L following two years of deterioration.' g% f! @& }" d8 ]" w
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