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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
9 ~3 y* @7 a- G' C" B TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 I3 t+ A9 O) B* U% F f
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& l: X) X" _' c4 W! q; z! @
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
/ n: e; d/ v5 L1 O# b/ |8 g Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.5 o/ |5 h2 f R8 _) z0 j
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
, R+ L; D* u3 e+ u; `said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
+ w: d" J( z' E9 |- bimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
/ J* Q, O7 x% i; d* Bmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
7 a$ L) c9 O) p" V1 [ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is5 ~" G' Y5 h$ u- E/ G$ B9 R' {8 W
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,% `" [5 w5 S- p6 p/ q9 V
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have3 s' T/ y1 G. P! R2 ?
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
+ u5 b# p4 h, D The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
^8 o7 ]- J0 I* Bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a3 A8 @; j. O; t0 ~: u4 y
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
6 }: k0 W5 P; L$ U: G. ^Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the z' ]! }0 p- `" `2 P% v' k! g
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
5 t [, V! ~$ A' m. K) a1 rthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.6 Y& K+ F6 b E0 A) r
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
' ^) p5 t4 z& D: V8 X' j- z; p, Xmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in4 ~$ K( v* A/ _: K6 J' |8 Z7 F& t
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at% Z( t# y3 @4 s* _* B5 H x4 q5 [
historically depressed levels., D) E! |4 L, d' ?$ t* N- d
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
, G8 i* y* \6 O' N+ l o! U% m6 g9 Aof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; e* J& ^4 ?# D& F" D1 `prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
2 ^% m( s5 Y4 N" y: Khands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& s) [; J! d! j' O2 E1 G Aenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the" {/ `. t( {. f$ A+ T& f% ~( e# U
months ahead," added Hogue.
% R+ K5 v) V+ [ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! \0 b4 L* F* J. bcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary0 G. B6 P1 y' t) Z! f5 Q
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# W2 o' s5 d" C( W- i- y The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
8 V7 {0 x' y2 C+ [$ Za broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these2 h7 `: _% s% p9 n* n
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only& c( ]' c' D' U8 p! y( C
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 Z/ q' P# Z! a" Z3 A' I$ {
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
5 R8 w6 a9 ]& _5 v5 q. ]- M5 Ubased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
- A$ _* s6 k9 Ubenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented' w- |) [) M/ ]/ V8 o
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
( I; J/ o( z5 o. u7 @: S. M0 r) {condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 P T) G" {2 J; P$ _9 pFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
) x, u. x8 Y! e6 a" ]costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50" N1 y, o: |$ w7 w
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.! r$ ?3 k: C, f, M
3 e* n( i! U; f1 ^5 G/ ?* v
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& G; t" r8 g" s& Z, Y Highlights from across Canada:
4 J4 [6 ^9 `; w* C5 D
0 O8 \% k& S- v, ` J5 J6 G - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has" @- ]: J4 |! `0 |8 B! c1 t7 C$ a
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing$ z( \ x7 z' |" j
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound# I$ c9 n% b3 v# j' f& n4 s. v' H
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track1 B1 Y% s% l) X9 A8 G$ z9 J
since about the middle of 2007.
8 Y* @9 a- S1 Z5 ~% {6 _ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
! U5 Y; g( f0 n8 ], ~ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# N; V+ V& u8 j1 W, k" r& \ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
3 W9 p) a, d$ a0 W9 d \7 [* \ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
2 R, a# y. J1 N$ w5 ? h poor affordability levels.- K/ K3 d: Q6 [) {: }+ q# V
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
( O& L* o$ n7 f K vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
( Z4 p8 y& h6 d5 X% \# f5 \# b+ O prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
! v0 k/ l6 h$ C Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
% D# U$ G7 Z* G7 z. y: _+ A0 \8 p minimize any downside risks.
9 b; c% P6 q' e- J( M - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
1 B+ e' [7 f" C# M) a conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
5 ^# r, S1 I; U0 | unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early- M1 a* a9 ^7 m( p/ S6 r3 w( o3 ^
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
+ @9 j9 z3 M" J! ` r) ? being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.% N5 b; M! q" V, ]* z4 j3 x" x
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
6 {% r2 n* x) K! Y: l Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
' I: R3 {+ r4 Q' c+ A' p far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up# B+ M. K- E7 q9 s" J7 C
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) A! U* V0 l4 \; \ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only5 P$ N: J! Y( x5 b9 i, d. C
modestly in recent years.
! X+ H+ J* p0 G) V; z - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the: Q) q/ K# h* E8 T
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
" d; s- U* C& Z1 D spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
! J* z4 P3 r6 {% i) S price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability( b8 g5 ?! Z& a, S1 I) L3 n
following two years of deterioration.2 U8 e ^* h4 U% \+ o, t7 Y% x: K
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