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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
, y$ Y% V1 M9 p! a R2 U2 K TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
7 E* Y; v" w: n1 V& B/ F. ~, xmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive0 b7 r5 I# H4 z. b
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,* @! C v4 w1 S( ?+ z o
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.. Y, h- \$ _7 l9 o* K3 x
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"6 ?% r! W" y4 w( r
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
, n3 F# k, ]4 N. Nimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
8 L; V z6 L6 {) M" \- m; C& Rmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."+ [4 U8 h v0 M* P$ L- p
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
2 j( O; J' g: L$ n. |6 {1 l4 ~worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,2 h2 r2 Q9 X& f9 Y T5 @* T8 I. _
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
/ L9 w7 c1 O: Bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.: P" \6 `3 G& p5 H2 G# M
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
" J/ G: r; ~" ^! sproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
! k1 b; [. h! [0 [; Hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.! D: k/ M- U6 J& w y2 }
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the) l* Z X+ F6 c ^( `' _
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and3 I( Q4 q1 t. O3 ?0 r. o- b5 c' n
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
: [( ?& V6 p) M8 h According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets, g* z* z: n& P$ g% d0 E# I! c
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
0 O7 _' g6 D& Q/ v; k) ]the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at1 b; [- N4 q: d, H5 b8 y9 b7 G# U
historically depressed levels.
* q! y. S: s6 u% M Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
7 [8 ]* ]: x: @1 Sof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
% K2 M+ s t3 Y5 y2 yprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the( H1 U% F8 t4 J4 U
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This' ` P0 F! Q E
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the) A' Y. i+ D4 L/ y! r8 K4 a& k6 O$ s
months ahead," added Hogue.; o ]8 B6 c" h1 m2 ]3 Q, G- A! q5 h k& E
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
( O7 E+ }" n. o1 G, U" k, L$ Ycities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
$ F. m9 s, e+ N8 W8 F9 E2 f42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.* i0 ^- W' c. n( r, J% [$ L" W
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) n8 C, d% i' H; _/ Z0 J8 ia broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 [4 }* g' h7 G, T$ f" u
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
# y. A. I* `+ S' [takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.$ A0 H+ m# |* T, \! w5 ~( W# X
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
4 A5 c. D* {$ a( Hbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
6 ?' Y. P6 `+ O3 v4 ~benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented9 }1 G" s) R( ?1 T/ X
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
$ x/ L4 Z" W9 t: [' k" b7 wcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.* Z6 T# \$ E# L* p0 z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership" K q5 _/ P; X, W
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
2 ]7 c# |1 W. q7 [1 tper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
5 M' z# y" k' w7 A0 J' O8 D6 ] N! m6 M6 X
<<
- x3 p5 |7 x8 u) m3 r Highlights from across Canada:
# c N0 C1 ^. v! A# s- T: R) p- v- n
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 E9 z+ Y8 T P: G' m6 b intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ f4 m B! `0 y {; f4 f
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound& \) C: }! ~2 y# s: A
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track8 q8 @! D* K! S, V$ U- P# J
since about the middle of 2007.
+ e- j( }- d) E - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
% f; A" N A9 V5 \ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' K4 C, U1 S) s6 T s
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still# o. D; n- K1 F0 G, W! P
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( O1 _' S w" k& g
poor affordability levels.
9 K9 b' A5 K; s# E. `" X, g% s* P - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 J" |* y8 p! D, a m* t- X2 q1 q
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and+ V% V8 K3 K* W! _ g( ]2 t
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.5 m8 O) c* F" @' T- j$ i! Q w
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
6 |$ O: @7 }1 T4 d+ n9 g minimize any downside risks.
4 E1 o' P- b" R8 V/ G - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
, ?' Q3 U) O- R# G! f conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, s: H- q7 {! m unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early9 L8 q" f9 l' x. r
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
6 Y2 c$ Q7 G8 E- r% S being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.1 ?7 G# \7 G5 ^5 o
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
( p! }3 x2 E6 U Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus i8 y: J* n! F/ w) Z) R
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ m" ?( M3 |2 G9 ^5 m5 M# ^
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 o6 ]# ?- Q z% d* B( ] N5 z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ W* A" p) W+ E, t& c& J0 [ modestly in recent years.
; A8 X: X# |& Q1 W( G+ O2 } - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the$ }7 O' S* R2 T
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
! c$ u- Q& @. {4 F9 O3 P8 @+ \ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
: F( o8 z" ]1 s/ C* B1 t price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
3 P5 W" o) z# d9 i following two years of deterioration.
6 `. D: G6 M8 W+ S3 P$ I2 B/ n >> |
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