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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
" \* {& f1 t5 c# _/ ]! W3 r TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 j$ z3 {6 v4 R9 E/ R4 u, M
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- Z+ k- h7 l" A
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( [) ]3 `: m# y5 E
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
0 r8 S0 ?( O7 W6 D- w, h "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
8 \) }* V1 F$ y$ @) a" j/ _said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is: s) t1 {& k: K& V, U" I+ J+ _$ O
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
9 T, O, x$ M; hmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 L! d+ l3 ?' Z! S* k- w RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 T9 R3 B4 n; a$ }worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
1 |3 w$ h3 ^' e4 V& z- `which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
- f8 p5 v8 d$ lsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.; V( K* @$ ?& W ~4 Q9 K8 o
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
1 X; Q" ?! T7 `' A: Y( s; R s4 b fproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 g6 c! z& q7 Khome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.- s- H3 {; p! @* H8 k
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
- O4 X* K' \4 j) g! Hstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and& s7 o7 M5 ]1 K& j; n+ j" r
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
& t) b" O( ]0 s+ Q5 ~2 ~ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
0 O' B4 s1 H, N% A& B% Nmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in C- N9 a5 ~* @
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) A/ B) i9 q: [0 p$ E, S. s
historically depressed levels.
8 |! i: U7 }# P6 D Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
- f- L6 _2 ^+ ^of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House5 w# p% t/ ?) y3 T6 G
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the2 Q" X4 Z4 |* G: M
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This" @ [6 w1 L/ ]
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ Y8 x) j( ?' Nmonths ahead," added Hogue.
% `+ a) `. c8 |7 p. r0 L RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
9 @) j# z; Z8 |. ?, acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary( i/ ?. w7 N7 K! P" n
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. D% ?) i, l: c I3 B2 j! \
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
% Q+ s! G( l3 n# c) l* ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
. e7 ~/ P3 w/ T& B6 x+ L( I8 pcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only2 I. K1 n/ k) C8 U+ ]
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.- ?8 N: ^+ E7 i8 [) Z& s
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
# o6 E' K0 r1 A G- h, ebased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property( n T0 g+ j1 u
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented! F: y% L4 w# o# n
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard! r% }6 `; O- s
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.* {: `+ u+ e) G/ u) ]
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership/ a' L" _7 t7 m" g2 Z# S
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
* u! w- _% D! Aper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
7 k/ f- B% d3 r9 O, c% A4 }! n9 M
8 s6 X" o" U. l" t- {1 e9 y <<
3 S0 A; k4 [! K4 H Highlights from across Canada:
7 x! x7 x* P) K1 H7 r' @/ N; W4 {& j( ]' Y
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
+ f5 d$ ]2 O7 ^0 \# ` intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing. T/ W2 {" _) X+ R" C( d& E4 ^
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
" T' L& d, @" E( d/ a9 m only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
% F, G) a. y7 W S5 @4 s. C H since about the middle of 2007.& L8 G9 K2 A7 O( R
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
. [! m0 e6 M# B0 X* q frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
7 r1 N: a: e( R* R: D* J5 M# [ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
# x' p, Z, F) ]/ g3 ^) U# b# Z largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely5 V( e7 |' f8 c
poor affordability levels.( Z" X/ [0 ^$ z/ J' p4 D3 e. {
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the# r- i! v+ ^. t/ I
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 e: l6 G% W0 k* K) A. G prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly. Z# }& T! B; \ I! `
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
# A# p3 p7 } M& P minimize any downside risks.
3 e# u: C, U6 v5 n/ D; G7 A - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
r% P" J! {! M% O5 h' x9 ~8 H conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is- T5 H+ H! F' e. p2 U
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early% N1 G! f# A4 u. x4 N Z/ q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% ]( o% Y6 y1 L being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
: }1 O/ \- {3 Y/ }( \ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in, Q4 ^5 I4 f0 Y" v( \+ {9 _
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
4 A: ], o( h; ] far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
) c- ?: P( q6 V" V3 i& q9 Z; s reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 O+ Y7 e+ X0 V9 D6 W& M$ d
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only5 S) m0 _ o9 D/ }( W. @
modestly in recent years.
2 V3 O' p5 g/ p* b% U0 u - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
) n; r5 P1 ^0 @ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot+ X* \' P8 i4 }% ~( U
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward0 d* N' Z+ ^5 V
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
- n( W6 B+ v; y) { following two years of deterioration.2 i& N2 C( \! o ^
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