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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
6 a5 v2 M# E/ l F3 a9 S- N6 m { TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ t& {7 X7 y \' H* L* Y: g
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! m) |0 L( ^* G7 E& \/ s
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,+ q! @$ T. ]$ v
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
}* c4 E2 r9 A$ W "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,") I& u" O. s2 U" E+ H! J p
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
- K' ]! e3 r, c: \9 `improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
q. n1 ]: D. A% g. _measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
( \; H8 K% B" p$ m RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 J" h( N$ ~. r9 A1 ]; }; s
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 v6 d3 m9 `% ~, r0 \+ u3 Wwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
3 D& A# I& {% c( |- P1 _9 k, Zsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.9 h: s. x! A* M$ @' W0 e
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
3 h; c6 K4 M( ?# q& c; ?" t/ {proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# A8 G/ ?$ G& d% X A8 e/ M
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( m% A# P1 @' m( e) N# X
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
, n: i; ~, W4 z3 W jstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and1 j$ j7 f- p9 N4 `4 t4 h
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.! l0 G0 E* @7 x
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) h! n- O: D3 k# n4 Q5 H, U
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
0 ^ V$ p {0 q" Q( jthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at& J' d' m- a a5 Q& h
historically depressed levels.5 ~: ~% V/ q" }9 X* O) B
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
: w: J- c) l' vof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
$ [1 G2 u5 [& G: p7 r+ M9 u. \( `prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the: b' p9 }. ?8 W
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This/ ]1 }- y" N1 U. R! W3 N" N0 d
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the4 Q7 C- t$ ^* z( I2 u6 d
months ahead," added Hogue.
7 B9 s* j4 F2 N2 @$ j6 _ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
% H5 [% `( g) t `% L8 B0 U: Ocities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% k4 W4 f: |- s1 `! R0 n* R [- J
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.( n! y: \, S& t' X8 M! a
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for6 H" b. D- m" l4 i8 r
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these* J& l& [8 Q" c b$ h. h5 A6 r' t
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 O( g+ T- T) G9 k1 {% O$ O: ^9 ttakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 _0 z: y5 y. ]1 r) H
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
% W- r' E C0 ]; r# z1 {3 ]based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
4 Z' t" F* ~) h. A Cbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
& _- O+ U" z6 U- y1 X( ]' K; Hincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard3 L. q( P' f5 }% }! [7 M
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 x, L/ I- a) G7 Q0 g" V, ~9 P8 aFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership$ R x4 N' u$ \. x" J
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
' [7 U0 P2 r: K, c( Zper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
! v! f: c1 R) v; @; B }. F2 o8 Z! K7 |8 k
<<
, ^) ?5 L6 Z( w5 K' o Highlights from across Canada:8 G$ |: M4 G) s3 ?& _. C/ y
C7 e9 [2 E5 |( I
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has9 `2 `% B8 Z$ j( d
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
5 l) M4 _/ U k0 p4 P home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
, w5 |7 C* b+ d& k, _+ ^ j only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 a7 X5 z9 K; ` since about the middle of 2007.- ]4 G- N4 k* m7 w3 e
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 X1 n% ^1 a+ o% }
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# Q6 `% m$ W) z/ P6 M! }- c# O0 p" j. r decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, T* K4 ^- V5 T; ]) l5 E7 m0 N
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
9 k8 d @6 E" n M" D poor affordability levels.. m: \1 O# t, K
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
# [$ z/ N4 x$ C vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: F# ?1 B! m2 D* h+ u prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
# Z" i* W% g2 L Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
2 d- r6 R1 H$ z7 x$ ]4 X( T minimize any downside risks.
) l8 E9 S8 q( O" P# L2 Z - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market$ l5 J& ^, ] C. w: H: O
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 _5 P" y$ a3 S1 I/ d- M3 Q4 @ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early& {) C& m8 c# G, x: t$ u# L
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly; a( G" {3 S( ]7 Y
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.% u A7 k' w$ v& A
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
; e0 n6 e1 [: G' g S Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus4 V$ q% d9 Y: D9 ^
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up; t5 b8 n/ _0 i3 k
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be+ d2 J9 o1 u, j2 g* \8 S5 ?
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only7 i4 d% Q% K7 t9 r$ |$ V
modestly in recent years.
+ a; H# l! I' N - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the+ o2 p" P# S" r" @7 Y) E
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 Z/ R2 u7 f9 z. x9 @ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward* `9 ?% r- G8 l6 H- L) v( J& g, a2 [
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
( H+ \' G- C: `' F+ W8 ]& r0 l! D following two years of deterioration.
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