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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC / I( ?7 [4 M m) y' j. R; r* [
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
8 e7 `9 m9 X Omiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
4 y& f1 q/ j- Y$ x0 `, l5 P- J# Jgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,$ ~3 K" O7 J. c2 h/ V
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
0 F. d' J! g9 j( q6 ] "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,", p. d4 ~+ a( d$ D! J9 ]$ Q
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is+ ?( J! t6 w# ] b
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
: h* p% t; d0 G' f- w8 Pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# D/ j9 s/ A: p# |% w8 C4 b
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ J* {# W `: o6 X {$ l( f' H: Q
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,# U) G8 |& ]. X; P4 X# Z" S
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
: [, Y* J, f6 y' l8 m$ rsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes., N! b4 ~- c( t. ~
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& o: g! n& v: T* ^, t
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a0 a! u9 {5 v+ [, H" T/ E4 t& B
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
; }7 @2 W0 s& M) N2 jAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
9 @7 e& c( F0 fstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and) \$ z$ d k) U$ n
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
3 z% F4 ]) Z! i3 a1 t) i2 U According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets; @; F( r x6 {# d
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in2 U) _- S# \/ r
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) G* x$ c; j8 c: N4 chistorically depressed levels.2 a. R; A. z# n( m. c) m7 \
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost0 q. F6 d4 c. [
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; T7 k1 c2 ^6 O$ @prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the/ n# W1 M4 b8 U: Z$ n2 ^# s' }
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This, W8 ~% Z( Q9 `
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, ]7 Q& M, D$ g' w" M' p' Z4 ]" c/ [& xmonths ahead," added Hogue.) s; m* [& @9 m1 o& b$ d& n) `/ Z' y
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest' A ~" z& t. R$ \8 Q' a" a
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
* Z. V& s7 {2 P. l" u7 `) [42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
, F1 }9 J3 ^$ `* P ] The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
' }: Y) N& u9 M8 U6 ^2 e) y0 l% fa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these) Y4 j$ E% r8 q* R( r
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only9 q! Y6 N9 _) g q9 `6 q( {
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
' m5 ^! C, F% H+ c/ Y- O7 Y The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is x: B* g* G) z" S7 Y6 B
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& i$ j: S9 D* G; }: J
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: m6 Y' @" W8 Y; j6 ?6 P8 a
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard, L* y$ ^1 ?5 p* p+ u
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
A+ F- |! L4 u- j2 A( E) IFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
" i$ t$ l( V/ H! |costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
9 b+ Z4 P+ i+ n' d! @/ jper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
- G; \1 O5 O6 @, ?3 u
5 n# }* U, ~( v" O <<
+ S$ V0 x4 [. a Highlights from across Canada:
1 t: Q# ^) z5 u9 f) K( b" f: b/ f: t' b
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has; z2 y! P( a: {! N" g2 Q: D2 } ~# g
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; d' ^" H2 j3 `! a" Y0 a5 ^ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound# V) Z8 x( n/ ]: C
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track/ {! v/ g9 R' Z2 C$ B
since about the middle of 2007.
- h3 A$ l. |- J9 ? - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
% a1 s$ X& i4 _5 e) i frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# c7 |7 M& v; S; }/ N C1 K0 e; D
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
7 q) Y2 a/ D9 U) [$ I' u8 S largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely0 s4 T. m& X* ?% T3 \- l* ]# V
poor affordability levels.
' A3 g6 R$ @$ H; k9 L - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* E! \ T3 E* h2 v& l7 S
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and* C, x% Z7 s9 I ^/ S& ]$ e4 z
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
1 U9 w0 X; W: }6 T Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to& v6 Q8 r! @. P0 m3 k- i( @; {8 S
minimize any downside risks.* U4 g0 w6 Z# Q: D( z/ A& k6 W
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market8 Y% ^; C9 V; K' ~) M4 r: v
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
" F, t# K" E0 I! I9 K unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
( ~* j0 Q6 v- f5 E" Q- d9 L% j3 E+ J 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
. K' ]2 [+ H" W1 L! _8 w$ h+ q" \5 ] being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.. S6 \; b2 ?8 C
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- r9 E: u3 J- w: o. ^' n Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus C3 J0 j) k8 X2 a0 p
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up. X! }7 T d( R' ?1 A- C1 {, `
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) _- i% v+ p2 R( j$ L' C; @5 t ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 q. S- y2 f9 {% t+ |: M
modestly in recent years.2 e: n7 G: _1 K9 {
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the5 R8 v" J$ I, O s0 L
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot" w% E( x- r2 t
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% g3 a, E* B: w4 }/ x
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
% C/ o3 e6 Q. E! T* u1 I( V" { following two years of deterioration.5 k) i3 X: ?. y5 I5 r+ [
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