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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 Y' N! K+ ~( T) r
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
! _ E: r2 d; a# J- O) N" G7 Bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
4 J) y. _4 V8 J% `$ G6 A4 V6 V3 Wgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,5 u5 X8 D. d7 L1 d
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.4 s+ W, B0 \2 J$ S+ ]- }
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( `$ E' T$ C) C% s
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 m1 ~& J9 N2 g2 X; g. x" R; ?# Eimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
9 I' I8 k' m+ j8 Mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! t8 j: X. E. B3 I* s: l
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is+ n C" K7 |# F7 `
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 W- `: e7 M0 L! t9 n( T
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 L( r/ D5 \8 F" i& G y# {' Rsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
6 V2 k4 u' Z0 B( }' h: } The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
! z4 c X% b, C, M, }5 bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
' |+ ?7 p* b5 {* yhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ v; y% K& E8 k8 f% P6 [; M* l/ H0 ^Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
- b8 |2 c7 h# w! C4 cstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and0 t3 d* E g1 A* W
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. h) [( \3 ~! h; A. o2 v/ y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets. \7 }: d. }6 ~" @. [, i# _
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in) i( n. j. g l5 z j3 s0 I
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
6 Z( E4 W& h6 Lhistorically depressed levels.* h( H- J4 a' C$ O
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ ~, ^$ Y: F7 r+ u5 [
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House) Y$ y' l8 F3 ^9 {1 C, ]4 h0 ~! u
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
$ K5 e/ e" P2 _+ Zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 `7 ~; N" x- Jenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
7 U( ]0 @- n! i @8 A8 y, cmonths ahead," added Hogue.
, n3 X9 T) p' ^' H5 ~: n RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, ?# e8 w3 B) c# t: h' ^cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* S$ J7 \7 ]* I* j* P/ E
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
$ _2 Z+ _3 O. e' y+ u. P The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
7 ~2 }/ D3 B0 h& ka broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 r! V+ [( F3 o# l( r# y$ kcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only4 i% C5 }( R- v9 D, @* }3 N, g7 R: {
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.4 x; V9 f7 G2 e0 ?" K8 p
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" }. f4 W$ V; n; h" i
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property3 U# B |0 p6 H9 i r1 f# s# y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: c4 b' k% m$ o3 F6 G' l" Q4 s5 f
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
: p" O5 V: s# `% f: K6 ?2 D# ^condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
( f8 c) E6 G, xFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership- T+ b% }0 r+ k4 c: e5 c
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50( d& Y, C$ B$ r3 n Y! x
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 Z! z/ Q5 T( t4 |
, w& j+ p. Y1 \9 \( Z, J
<<. b' f: s# n% w2 L
Highlights from across Canada:
7 ]5 N5 x' o7 Y
! a2 B0 c4 x3 p" ` - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ r; T8 A7 _ I' B5 a intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
8 `+ p/ m" |2 u; ` N; d9 h) F1 } home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound! O8 |1 s% n* O" _2 G- j, Z
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 q# Q+ \2 ?4 x9 p+ Q8 m% u; l since about the middle of 2007.
4 g4 D1 k9 z9 d/ R% I3 L0 I5 | - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the, Y2 f2 A* F* a7 \) a' e
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
$ K3 J% b9 [9 U8 ` decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still& w* C4 s" [# q4 X2 N# W
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( S% ~% s) |; W
poor affordability levels.' y. P2 w! o7 Z$ Y
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
8 g% R! L. s6 m: G' { vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and' S8 l0 v( {+ Y" y! ]
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
- K9 F3 ^1 z5 a Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
) x$ L- K! r; _5 W1 T: [ m/ u0 [ minimize any downside risks.8 g$ o' K5 I) ?3 t; ]9 K
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market" e8 B7 C- `6 {& g- Y* @4 ~: o
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is4 ^' v* u! R) C
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& n' x1 v- i& N. n" u* M& { 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
( S0 [3 Q' M( D( F2 K being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
J6 `3 J. A6 M# M - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% s5 b! o# l- d6 A3 O6 c" `
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus( d( y" }+ j& [6 p& k4 ?
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. T- `1 \8 a3 C3 ^ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be c6 `3 I2 \+ `
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only b/ r; T& Q; _( a5 [0 G
modestly in recent years.
]% M \0 `, Y! [8 w; k - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. r& A3 d% Y: L
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot/ p% x+ R" T, r( u! c: }8 ]
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
2 _' A" s8 K& R4 d( s; T; x price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
+ C/ X7 Z+ ]9 @ D9 A" D following two years of deterioration.
3 |5 `' @7 i- H2 G: I( C >> |
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