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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 z1 ?+ r' \; w) _* C3 w7 ]' s# c TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the. d1 q% c1 H# `( I7 Y4 r* o
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
& z4 c& J% A& ygains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
' m8 U/ _. l8 f9 T8 D# S1 xaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
* y; e: \5 u0 F2 F( `2 B/ s5 ] "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
y; E# a. ]: A( l7 T8 Ssaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
7 N8 e/ |9 s5 I5 k( kimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability% @5 i6 o' {/ c
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.", g. {- Q K8 Y1 n: j0 V
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
/ K6 W* F$ {2 E5 H }5 q( Z0 jworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 w6 Z9 F% [1 m- m) ~# f
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have1 `& e+ A1 a$ O! ^, e( ]
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 _' |3 h5 c7 |% R5 H- J. t" o The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the; G0 I* t! J' H- Z0 C
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a0 [* j7 B3 V: T, a- ~/ q
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.7 _3 j m9 x3 \* `5 Z* G* j9 X
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" l+ v( `* V* L6 Y
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and0 O( M% J7 X0 N0 u7 c" ?: x
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
- l$ J3 L: {3 ?7 z* M, s According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
8 J, j2 v) J9 S, Q1 N3 Y! K0 Hmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
7 Z: \8 R, Q+ ^" D+ ]( lthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at8 u9 ~& A7 U* _: J
historically depressed levels.1 e( h. Y$ _7 j4 ]" Q( H+ J3 i+ R
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
0 `- v, d7 T z; F+ i% ^of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; F) N' B. L1 z; e! x' D3 j7 Eprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
5 W. n3 x5 {3 T/ v# B" E8 rhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: Y! D* Q" f e+ |enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
+ |3 P6 ?" i' o0 |$ a# T0 [6 pmonths ahead," added Hogue.
% _1 u" v" w5 r1 p1 W1 u RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
% e- L% r5 y8 w8 ^4 ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary( W# F" M9 p1 {' f- H4 V: s1 d7 _7 o
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.( h! i1 e" O. b/ B+ X0 m2 A
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
* b4 r' u, M5 P1 m& A6 ma broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these% d2 G3 O& N" m% n+ m8 M$ ^. [
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only9 q/ V/ t* t' }0 i, b( w1 I
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
$ z8 d' V6 W7 n4 N# u5 d& D, V) W: C The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is& N d$ N3 ?; |: i* S5 J2 m5 Y) z
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property1 f+ V3 d8 ^% a5 M/ M
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented2 f1 z3 N E6 N; ^ {' Y4 }) ?
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard9 j$ m3 f7 A" S! _) k3 m
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.* V, `& y8 O. ^ H# g/ |
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 z$ b$ b- H% Bcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 p# e( h7 A8 D3 ]) ]% `
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.9 e- X: P( x" Q& Z8 j8 |
$ _# A' R5 q) t4 l3 R3 n
<<" L, u/ ?: s! o6 H# i0 W* |: w
Highlights from across Canada:1 E; s# X4 L8 B6 {' j+ V( c/ p
% Q5 n6 H( ?0 v- [, L - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
Y# x. e* C4 O% F" H8 Y intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ `. p, j" i" O! X home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound# |7 s, O) R& g1 _
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track3 S8 p7 V" L, c! u; ?! e
since about the middle of 2007., B( C3 k2 ~5 k" ^- b! ~3 @! D" B4 Q! D
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the8 L2 v1 {: N: I) y# z* K
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to+ s7 d1 H2 l, `7 J% c
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* e1 t- q$ {9 I0 r! z3 ~
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely9 F8 e: ?# X* {0 i
poor affordability levels.
: d$ c( T& F: D4 C - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
0 f" _, V" j8 R( d3 H5 ^0 u" q; J vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
" J1 I7 l. D4 Q$ S prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
5 K. v; E; r5 J3 n1 P Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
) E& u/ d6 c d. J% L& ? minimize any downside risks.
. W0 O# o+ f% X, n- h. J2 P6 c - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market7 w% m( I. l: X* K9 E
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
1 Y! K, a; t/ b! Q unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early- ]2 R" J+ W; G: I& ?
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 N4 ?$ V1 |" S7 i& E; I: g
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& D- [' m8 s {# L( {4 B3 o" Y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
8 [; P5 W" y3 K$ I9 A' u Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus6 p3 C; G, W. e6 J
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up( T( A; p+ c' h2 d8 ^8 B" J
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be& c% k- ^ e4 l/ a
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ O8 S* o5 V3 f7 A6 G modestly in recent years.
t$ O) F- O5 |1 X& u$ E - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
, _# }& j: p2 B& ~: S0 r general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 b7 x" D! B6 s$ K3 i/ `* z: _
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward5 \0 J5 d+ z2 N8 p1 B1 A# b O
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 F. E- J: n8 B" ` b" `2 `3 \ k following two years of deterioration.& {: X0 O" e7 V- b
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