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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 ]' G! C/ W; c+ F$ T" K5 T! Y
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the( ^8 N% e8 _7 o$ H0 q
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& N9 S) u6 r* r: [
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,4 t+ N9 @- `6 X9 m
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.3 O: E7 f# Y7 ^3 n* E$ J+ H9 w
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"# E* H( e' s9 C9 C" @% r. _7 ~
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is; U3 @3 P: L# C! I4 |3 ?
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
6 ?8 a; r% [ G& D$ Cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
) {8 n* J& y$ a6 {. P4 ?" N RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
/ C, e9 `& e. z; {5 E4 Mworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 e: f) i8 k9 h1 k* X
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
8 C {) K/ p( Psustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.% T( n5 W$ F- p# I, F+ K
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the( l: m* \4 _, x
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
9 d5 H0 \; x3 G! A A7 X) { ahome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.# I7 ]5 H' ~, ?! r y" j0 B
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 T; ^8 ?' S% E* V8 Tstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
7 h5 u# w1 ~! y, vthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. @: C+ F7 B, I5 B3 F$ l- V- A
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
6 e6 I. ^+ D+ mmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 ~1 \( B1 H" f8 i: H5 ?; f
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
8 l. ]9 |8 t% I; whistorically depressed levels.& T* ^2 H, e- \% Q, o
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
z$ R% p) D1 M: h, l4 j- T2 Cof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House9 ]9 F. e/ z6 L/ {' ]) g& u1 _
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& h( z z/ C/ a5 U# z/ m& m/ v
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This- \6 ~& ?+ ?/ m# y. v# y( d
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
' l- o+ r# U' N Wmonths ahead," added Hogue.
/ k. v1 ^4 }0 [7 y- a RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 @% _8 |- {& `0 S& ~cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
3 j3 a B5 s/ i9 U5 v0 h42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
& m$ t/ m& _% f/ c) r9 L The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" S; ~9 c$ r- `# j) R3 B7 B
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these/ F3 x% ?- I( e
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
: e6 C! [8 x% d+ Stakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.2 _+ p, m, |" ~
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
( V' v2 P% c$ S. \ k8 G7 W% U0 hbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property9 f; p D# L4 a( f
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented. B" X( @( W1 O
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# U% e! i- ]8 L1 d* Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
7 [4 Y% F( E9 _' b6 o' F+ k h r1 }6 DFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
- T2 W/ v* L: I# l1 v- L Hcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50; v& i7 j& g" Q: k, F( o
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.0 j7 ~+ V2 D) P1 U* F2 j N% C
4 |! q6 k8 @& e3 p6 l
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" y) i. ^; u8 S3 X* q; u Highlights from across Canada:
$ i' Z& Q+ c3 C5 r2 a
; x B1 K, I6 E8 P - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
6 [: }; W% W( I( O8 D+ L$ a intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
) D) k* J# v1 i2 W3 |. x [3 k home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound7 b6 y: K1 T1 y+ S# F1 T
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track; q- F" k& A- D/ ~: ~8 s
since about the middle of 2007.1 i6 |5 {0 [* r/ p
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* p7 D# u+ P. p8 z* p
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# N( j# J4 C' j
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
1 j& b0 B0 Y+ q largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
1 d( H& S6 W8 ? poor affordability levels.6 ]* e/ i# M7 o7 ? j# T- B4 m
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 F# }8 E6 a5 C8 V0 u# e* `6 {
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
% Y4 q7 G3 U% E. S prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; Y- @! T; A3 t5 r+ n3 b2 ^0 Z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
0 x9 ~9 u& ~/ A: W minimize any downside risks.$ U7 n, A8 k K/ K& T( ~
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. k/ B& N2 m5 k9 _+ M1 \
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is2 P. Y* f2 i( N" r+ W
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
0 N; h1 r* z1 I# q% h 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly$ `, y" _3 }. e9 @; x/ [ y \- k
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.$ C8 X1 R! M. X p- W8 _
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
% _9 A! I( b/ x o2 a Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
3 r! i; }9 \) T7 O9 ^: v far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up8 w5 W8 z: x7 N; H6 {. s
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be" K, J, j- {! ?9 L7 Z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
- M" |% `( \0 s* y8 g modestly in recent years.
@0 m3 @% q' z0 T7 l' T2 I - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the& R/ S5 k* j3 m1 l' _5 J
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot9 H7 ]2 {5 \! n8 g; @
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward1 ]9 Q4 {/ |3 v! u7 V3 n9 p
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability$ {; C } A9 K
following two years of deterioration.+ A& p) |. P$ o6 H& R- X' g7 G
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