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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
9 d6 h% ~* I) G% Y TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
2 u _) n* {5 e2 B% r% omiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
& U* J" k0 S1 }+ Ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
; C D* K+ T1 p5 q$ p& yaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.- j# `3 u) u9 V. M9 Q
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
: @! O8 Z8 r3 e9 G1 h x6 ysaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is \$ j8 u% y0 e- e
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability( i2 c3 a) A0 `+ n) N3 h
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."; r' {% q) e5 Z2 u
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* H8 @$ \! h% A# _+ Rworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,3 g/ b% C6 l& T p! ?* x; x
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
7 v) h% Q/ X8 @ q- s: [" \sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
, r2 ~: z, V9 a7 f5 `! [% S# @8 k$ p The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the8 h0 }% u/ V c8 `6 ]
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a. L( }0 s& \' b# t
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
. _$ Y2 M |3 a V5 d" zAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the2 Y e: v3 f4 [5 l0 K! D0 ?
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
5 T! ?! p. x, { }; |+ o& zthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
) r% {/ R, c J According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets9 b- H# G' w! D
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in) ~# U3 q- b1 W' C+ N6 c, ^
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
0 i" v7 S( n/ ]historically depressed levels.
! z- q9 y; X: M9 m) z+ D+ T" h Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 `. S5 S* u; C5 G# Q bof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House2 o- V9 K0 Q9 r3 _" F Z4 i5 u$ A4 t
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the. r' {- A6 `! ?0 v
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
# q& ?1 v! F( j1 j5 Benormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the! Z2 t7 V7 ~7 E8 f& J" o4 ^
months ahead," added Hogue. r7 P; U6 c* R. ?
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 `5 m- A' D0 L) _
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary1 G+ l0 B. A, y% l4 \6 n
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 U8 Q& j# R) U. k) P
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
8 S$ I8 H4 Y. [+ p6 |a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
; M! b4 ]6 z& T% R! ^' zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 _4 f7 Y2 B1 W$ }6 v
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
, a( n* G. ^: H; f5 [5 R3 w7 b The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is- w5 I( ~& v8 S- {; @. S1 L( @
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property$ ]" ~1 b$ c3 @1 l* w0 C Y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
3 A$ Q# I) F4 t( j7 P6 \8 `including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard# i% N/ V) ^) Z' e6 t$ i0 Z ]: J' G+ ?
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
/ Z7 G+ D: ?- h4 u# s; m- X5 v. N( FFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership) s2 I) @ F3 H8 d( D. l& [, j
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# o" E, x1 r5 D( j
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.# w# _8 h* Z9 `3 g3 W9 r9 o; U
7 A# d# t4 T. |9 U- r/ M1 x
<<9 A" Z4 I9 {% k K
Highlights from across Canada:5 x: g$ e' a+ }
6 h: s' P% o0 D8 L
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has/ `: q4 R W# ^* s, u
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing, P" N/ e, g& _% {2 L
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound! k$ j5 E- C: R0 E
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track) d! E) H+ M' ^1 i7 q2 M1 l
since about the middle of 2007.
: r Y/ ?& X! X8 R5 z4 ] a - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
$ O! O) O( O8 K. N5 `7 r; D frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
5 a- X2 a4 r$ x decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' I7 C" o( Z3 U! ^, A5 m- `7 T. f largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely# C! \. K( K/ G0 ?0 \8 o
poor affordability levels.
6 w- [5 f" M9 c/ @* n& B' \' @ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
8 o) o f2 e% j, U; T1 Q4 q: R vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and) Q* H/ _0 c7 D3 i1 F6 x" U q
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.# R m; l/ Q+ }# v
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 `* W. H, u' A7 \4 [7 @2 b1 L* ^
minimize any downside risks.
% r* o+ y$ L- p( ` - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market- Z2 R4 `; O. u2 ~$ G
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is% r/ j, C* {1 f) S: C
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
1 k) f# ^- `1 Y2 d" D$ U1 } 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 r& q4 m8 M0 [3 y, Y* S' a% o% L
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 }0 N$ q' r( P7 ?4 c1 j( c8 z
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# y* P( N' j* e* Q2 Y& ?0 f
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
7 b/ j) m4 E, ]& z$ q9 F far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up: C3 }- K7 b% `# F; i
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be: Y# s1 ^/ |; m; E
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
4 L" G9 h8 b8 [3 E% a) |' N4 [& I modestly in recent years.% O. d7 h) R) [, {2 V
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ R$ _# U2 D; X% L& k; K general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
2 }4 W. t+ M, ~. y4 Q9 @ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward, L6 a7 K; }( W1 q
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
# X7 q% A9 M/ H following two years of deterioration.4 j. t, h% W4 z. w
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