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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC / f6 [ F8 p' [0 C2 H/ @
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 {! ?+ |& h2 D& Z3 e( r
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
2 ]+ G; O2 b3 x* b# _gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,$ V7 x+ L) l5 a$ _. x s/ F
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.& y* J4 B: q% i6 z; D/ x& k( X6 A
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,": z1 n# k t) p0 l; k* h
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is3 b. d' D5 W5 Y& Z2 p
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 J0 j# Q% `# B3 k% r' `( Fmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 _+ O/ D, D" f+ v RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! }: [6 O* y" Sworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
7 z( s' Q- }/ z' N0 @which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have9 a* k5 B6 Q% q S% W
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
, H+ }6 _ g- A8 @ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
* ]% U# q3 k6 S! qproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
8 R7 I P# H5 C1 ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
1 f8 V, o: @) x L+ h8 F; B6 C9 BAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the' ^4 f2 R) G3 m; `* v! u! e
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, ^ A" b% e2 J3 ~; k- o4 athe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.; w+ R! [' M" V. Q2 t+ ?2 b
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets0 r' o* ? ~+ d1 U) Z; W
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
' L4 p3 n$ I" Y) S, ^3 Ithe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
" ?2 k1 M0 ]. Q9 {historically depressed levels.
6 x/ D7 p5 { {0 V9 F G Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
4 n. M& a2 v$ Tof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
' \3 Z% ^& Y: ]/ G5 Tprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
9 Y0 B' N9 \" U( U4 h) \hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
" c$ u, X2 x. e. |5 uenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
6 |! }0 b* p5 j* imonths ahead," added Hogue.
+ y0 i3 A5 X. F' M% r1 h) V RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; E" v' c7 v, E; W/ T# T7 Mcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
: j. @2 Y: V2 E8 P42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.: K; I5 F/ C$ Z6 t: V
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% ]0 q- k/ O+ ]' F- k! H# p
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these% m/ h: P9 v- |/ {0 o
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
0 I5 D- `5 n( S* I3 vtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.$ U& A+ R4 D0 X
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
+ Z7 j/ F; T ~( d3 |3 Hbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 Q+ E" i( N) z6 Y# Vbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* q: G$ u5 O* i: }$ C$ x
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
6 @* x2 t# f! F: z U1 Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 `+ S8 M/ ~) r+ G N7 XFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! b2 _( Z3 V, d
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
1 ?; Q8 {# h4 Yper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
M0 R: j& y2 A. b/ L% w4 ]' c3 g
- |% |0 L4 M2 D. v; B; r <<0 z* [ S/ w4 L6 @2 U- \
Highlights from across Canada:+ ]" _, x8 B, o% x
) {' L4 T. c) s - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has: i; `* W1 g7 b3 [/ ]5 Z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing0 S' A+ X6 ^7 H0 U- b9 Q/ }
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound0 |' G; x6 c. l% \
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
1 K% S M; \0 ]& N) e Y since about the middle of 2007.7 y5 \( }! U" t7 K. G, s) ~9 `
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
# s8 Q+ S- X; g N. J frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
" c) O9 \7 _7 o5 @7 g decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
$ I8 `8 R; I C- x! l$ [( J( f; z largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely7 S8 E9 S* c8 T4 ^' X
poor affordability levels.
F2 A4 |$ A; \' N% H' G% A. k U+ [ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 k2 ]1 j3 D" w/ ]" r( ?$ H vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and$ Z2 j8 ]0 h4 q) R( p+ H# u; E4 j
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.8 o7 `7 x/ Y9 p) o
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
5 _. L- V) f8 C1 l# A. ?+ t minimize any downside risks.# N( T8 O% y) W: |2 R4 m }; c( J
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market: G; O. N6 i6 K
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
( q3 l+ J' z' I! K* `1 N# ^ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early1 J8 g- a7 x F1 q- b4 q! s' F6 P
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly; X3 S7 W+ ]/ a- y ^5 d
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.. I4 t U- o! e; n/ G
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% V ?# h& H6 B! t9 m
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! v. ~1 g. R# i) g, s/ h
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- z5 \% z5 r* Z3 u
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: J& T: ]1 R& i6 {2 W* x" L U ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only2 |5 W" N, l# r* l' b( @2 Z9 L, `
modestly in recent years.7 l- v( o0 }6 N) ]
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
' a& n) D5 [" O9 \0 G* O C general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
& h6 b1 Q" }: f0 M spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
$ m7 r* ]8 s" `" ]: |, M price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability. u) }. u+ D4 |1 M- q1 J
following two years of deterioration.
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