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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ! F5 i' Y9 V/ L
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
# V1 T5 r- Y. Omiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive9 R( E) G; H7 _1 \/ c' q$ q% T
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 T; J9 ~' T1 p/ Z& Q8 o" R% haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics./ g/ k5 E8 I- F; C7 u
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
, K' y7 z1 c) \! jsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
& \$ n" A* J& {0 c3 Y* }improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability* k7 T8 H" h+ Q- P
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."; ?3 @3 X9 W9 D, i
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is+ u$ e$ x) o; S
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
6 R9 J/ E- M% A, h# A8 nwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have% Q S3 e% }* u; \( B; }
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes./ W! M3 H5 i( [1 e8 q
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the3 T4 r/ \$ Y* k& x% F: H0 h/ r
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
' N4 ~: T. K G& ~5 Z9 Khome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
/ |6 Q" g' t0 M( e, L. wAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
* D" A: g# V5 g# n; sstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
# E; l* b+ Q, \0 @+ }) Y% Rthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.8 P! |( a \! {4 y1 L" z
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets! [7 I5 }& m5 X
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in/ K: `! I' Z0 W
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
% W9 g/ g( U$ Qhistorically depressed levels.
% u; `: R! a* Z/ k; r5 t Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
) z5 E5 T8 Z# P- v$ O2 l2 `3 {7 ]! ~of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House5 A$ B4 Z0 r7 ~- I; ^
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
3 X$ u- b' T1 @% ahands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
, P- Q' P, T) |$ E+ c( Ienormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the6 y4 L. e- l9 w+ N
months ahead," added Hogue.# P" o' i9 ], R' U% A! `
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest( Z2 L0 ~4 q) ?8 q7 U% J0 N% x
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% \4 C6 c L% k# n0 c1 O3 ~
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ j* P- `' L% Z" R7 m3 @ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for+ W, E6 R$ F! L6 R
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 z i7 j2 o6 J0 j/ n2 }
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
& S1 W s+ a3 h0 c3 N9 ytakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.8 d: j B! \. k( [+ o3 l
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 J% c! {$ ?1 S6 ]' H, q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
! m( o9 c) g: `) F/ {" x$ L- o4 m, Ybenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
0 [- J9 b. B, Q8 Uincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
+ B" m$ P) U& D4 L4 T# {8 |0 lcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
$ q& h1 x( i% O9 h6 a. W: KFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
1 q5 u$ z/ \ ~ R9 E$ ~costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 U* S- U1 P' ^! P8 G/ X
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.6 @; K7 ~- v) I W0 m, e. z
* S1 r3 s G. N9 h <<) A7 M1 Q4 |3 w$ j: D2 M
Highlights from across Canada:/ F+ P. J- L* `* O9 M% J
& t% F1 H. B% r+ M: v2 q
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
& O: D# [$ u# i2 |! x( \# D4 r intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ n- b* p+ M. I H, ]7 `
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound5 I: O* c4 `+ D0 w, k+ H
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
. ?/ n7 n. l- s, y d6 Z3 N8 U since about the middle of 2007.
4 X0 N+ p4 U' Y8 m* a& C - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the; ]4 G, c( h& B4 f, h, |+ [
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ l$ ]3 I/ ?+ n' ~( X decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still; o1 _2 h9 l7 G9 x* ]
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( d1 L5 V2 W& ^* M: U poor affordability levels.
( A2 k! Y7 B/ {. A1 ]& D2 D - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the& w. D/ O( [! J2 g, `( \. F
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
m: ?% \5 D: e' R4 m prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.: I" }& u" p5 |6 O
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. z& g7 c- V' M6 K$ Z minimize any downside risks.
( l2 h' Q; w2 \1 V - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market7 t' |/ b; _ A" C8 ^
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is; s. H* D" }% `" z' u
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, B7 H, Q" N) m
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
7 r* R2 V$ L8 ]4 z: _ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
. @, p) e3 K* t - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in( y) B. O2 E; L3 t1 r
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
! g% \, c1 ]; L2 t. W0 m far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up3 ~2 u+ [3 E! y" R% U3 v
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be4 N; R/ i. n" ?' D5 ^* A$ e
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only( r+ M0 }' ?+ f4 \9 }
modestly in recent years.
# M' m4 n! d0 }6 h - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
# f0 a' X9 r4 Q: Q general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! t; \5 v; U+ P* T# d" p& V
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward5 b6 U) h* n Q: D7 A( l
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 z% K0 b! p U; U7 v7 w' G following two years of deterioration.
: I# V, D* v5 [1 Q( u >> |
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