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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ! b* N* L. i+ T/ A4 Q
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the5 @8 I3 r1 p& N+ Q7 s- Y
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
2 M" {' Z, N, H# r! u4 i, v' S2 qgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 e7 s1 Q7 j! e$ a. N' M
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
3 p$ s" D' x: A: x& H "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"+ z" e5 H3 a3 y& A, u; V! M
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is" i) v0 d% N) E' r& Z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
; _0 c1 z; s! [" Z0 b7 ]1 l6 mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! N# c+ L& K8 O! E+ R$ K8 X: ?; I
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is- ]/ a8 q# p/ Q$ n. Q
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,1 v) e" b' @0 w8 x9 j) E: m+ P
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
& J6 v% L8 ~7 jsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
& `0 ~% [. K# w& c8 q! a% W/ \ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the+ P w( {' p6 g( D( J N
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 C/ q4 z+ ?- `! [7 {) T
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
2 D( P6 |& V5 P! I& B6 KAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& Y4 A* ^' Y6 l8 s' v8 j# z- ?standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
. j( g. J8 b9 Y$ f8 k( v! t" d Ethe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
$ C5 x2 G# H. f+ W0 j According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets% Z4 t$ T6 K X% R: K6 c
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
/ X6 h4 X% q/ f# M: h1 t3 ^the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
4 o4 ^; {! h8 q5 k% Nhistorically depressed levels.6 D3 S1 D/ X! ~" D; M, {! z ?- n4 V
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ f0 i+ W" E5 zof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* u7 A5 E' F% o9 a' Y4 f: vprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& g1 o' [4 k2 S9 \; \
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This" F1 X9 Z1 h3 H
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the+ f6 v" Z: ]+ ?& `
months ahead," added Hogue.
1 L1 C( B( s) ?7 o8 G$ Z0 t RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
8 s: H ]2 U0 G7 }1 C4 E# M2 Kcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary1 } c3 n: P: [! r& \% a3 }
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
2 F q/ S* Y6 T The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for {1 N. G5 ]2 G$ w N
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
+ \2 ~; `% h* fcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
$ C% T# w8 j6 K8 U! M4 etakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
# N% O6 R% V Y; S5 {; N2 n The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 `( R. z" X4 P+ |. L
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
+ h5 `# c7 X: P5 k6 F8 |' }( }benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
1 v6 B3 @; o3 b6 q) eincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard/ Q& J n" D4 b# P& F$ w% ]
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
, S$ f5 w) q" X# t9 ?/ tFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 u W9 \: P. A Q" y! r$ W8 Vcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
( k' ^8 h1 A% ]: P+ L% R7 [per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.3 p2 E9 N0 n) f: k: J/ [) D% E0 G
% h! R' z; X1 a# c e <<8 l+ R/ @7 n& |; n
Highlights from across Canada:! \/ _9 i* h" ?, J5 h
8 j# b& v5 }7 b% n- u) u- _# K5 D - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has8 I- s* w) u+ K: {2 P) q" g0 }( ?
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 y( I; V' I6 L( w7 ]' F5 W home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound$ i- u& o, {7 `4 ~( x! p6 O
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track T9 D4 d) C: f" ~, P2 I# a0 W+ ^3 l
since about the middle of 2007.6 q& D/ _5 W- b( A1 D: V' Z1 \
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
' D8 q7 O' x0 T/ @3 v6 x$ w5 X6 N* l frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
- {8 D" n. L/ x3 D decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 Q6 b" W9 ^1 V1 o- z* g2 b- I0 M largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely T: s* ?) a( D9 D+ V$ S
poor affordability levels.
& {6 Y" x3 R, E1 U - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the$ L4 p3 p9 Z' N ~( I
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and* l) P/ c) B/ l$ u
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
. F, Q( _& y0 @. }0 k T, w% ~, Z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
* d% ^7 a8 s3 M1 y5 B+ J minimize any downside risks.
6 {: Y! u2 P; N; f2 _ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market/ a) A0 z$ `+ S, G; u. i% o
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is$ E9 ~9 v% `' `9 s; h
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* |1 }2 m2 c0 V$ x$ f& V
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' ^ e8 k% O6 u, o2 X9 ~$ `
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
$ |+ C. b6 V1 L9 k - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
9 `8 i) H2 R; m) ` D7 g! ]6 ` Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus4 \% }$ u0 @. h9 v% F& O
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
% O2 t4 ~% |0 e" T1 v2 H3 c9 w reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
/ M6 E! U# M h& @* O" P ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
- }' I* t. R0 h8 a7 n5 p0 I5 ` modestly in recent years.. a1 v8 c6 Z4 b2 [0 A! m
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the! d- J4 q) b x4 A
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot2 y, O3 g' t* j9 u
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
6 e% `$ x. i& | price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability, [1 L+ Z- \ p; ?
following two years of deterioration.) v# ~, A; i. {; U+ ?
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