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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 9 w( T3 ^7 ?1 ^ Q. H
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the8 U5 h- b6 L& Z2 }
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
J0 y: I& T+ ]8 P, d; lgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions," H; h$ ~8 l' q( S1 ?4 ]
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
5 F, ^( M: V |5 B+ l5 C "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
0 H+ y0 m! v3 dsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is- J* n; H! `" ]# }; m. X
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
: k! y6 Z! e% K; D3 W0 Xmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
1 A* R9 X. @- k; z( @8 v RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is9 i4 W! j8 }# k$ L) _* ]7 B
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,$ l" P3 o. e- h+ L5 `$ o! Y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 ^: p" A9 i# N( _! D0 e! `% E
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.: T4 B" s8 M( f, P
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the! ~) {+ o0 W1 e+ E) ^) z; o/ a
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
: p! A$ n( |; ] d) N4 I5 q& qhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
# q7 K, c+ t, {) d* ], dAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the9 g8 @2 o( g8 |4 P6 r2 C( f
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
3 i& S9 w& D5 I9 y) b) i$ V$ O zthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* E C' L7 t; s. g0 W% q7 N1 H According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
8 M" \3 o3 a3 P6 A) c* Smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
8 ?) d9 `; }2 |/ r @' z+ j7 Bthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) K3 L& b" M; j3 |3 `& A
historically depressed levels.
) e% a% D$ H, R, L Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ T1 k) S) H( T# ~ ^
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ C* r7 ~7 a9 Lprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
3 C; M+ Y, f: J& r0 k3 t p9 Qhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 q4 Y# M }8 X) g ^9 \
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the, ?4 {$ M& B% d7 V
months ahead," added Hogue. ?3 W% v( `: r. b7 a1 ^7 X' Y
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
0 o* b( ` m. _# O* c" Qcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 V+ K1 @' N# ^: |& V5 g- `$ x42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
% A6 T- q# t) _: J0 L- G The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
* d9 t% D( }6 p* ia broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 v8 d9 L# {# [3 f8 [0 f- G+ pcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 r' G- {/ e# W# L4 q. L: i5 B
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
* J3 o' D& b" Q/ `8 j, |/ |, I The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" q) {3 P* k, n- p
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property# O7 S: O( t9 x, B
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
$ q+ X: x3 l" P) @+ y, hincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard; X# }3 V0 W9 l5 l% g. _
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.: W9 W% k( g, r
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership0 O: H2 a9 n2 `0 y& `
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
( A0 W$ Z* U7 Z4 [0 O* j, Nper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.; O o' \- W, k' I x
1 I9 Z3 k" G" Q6 l% a" p$ r <<3 r% f8 [- Z0 s/ I$ h8 Q
Highlights from across Canada:
4 K1 g% F5 `( I" w2 w5 e+ @
& H- a9 R8 r. t J U8 J% x! I - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
1 c0 @2 ]9 S4 c7 D) B( ? intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
h3 y) S: x7 u6 u) w home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
: [" t, k" |0 A% A7 J. B* c# s only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
# A3 ]' _8 ]/ \% }* J% b since about the middle of 2007.1 u0 b- J& d$ C( a* G0 k' j
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
4 Z$ g) X2 h0 d# M frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to5 |' X- Q, P# {1 R; L. s
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 \, j5 F6 k$ G3 @3 ?. R largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely' Q' [- v- t' q+ D3 r
poor affordability levels." ~3 u7 A9 j4 ]' |7 _7 d; \, {- A: i
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 f/ m! C* z- B/ R vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ V/ I- j- z8 e5 p, Y
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.% }4 A- l' l0 }/ W
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
" i6 W+ r! J( a) t& A9 ^$ L minimize any downside risks.
( b2 E, x. B+ e% ~. }9 U1 R N B - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market2 A& {) U! d" c4 u
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is3 k1 D7 @% Z, x( {6 i0 R. \
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
% v+ e+ Y( Y8 d 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly& ]7 n; u" `& K! U* c' T
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages." O* Q. g* _2 p* r2 e8 m
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in8 s; |0 E3 g8 P/ C+ R
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 C. Y, i. P$ ?9 S& t& g
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up' N7 C* _1 A/ s4 m
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. K2 ^& _7 e4 V+ U+ u ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" n! \ B& W# }! ~$ Z: n modestly in recent years.
! k$ Q, w0 q3 E8 P - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the$ d2 I) V: o0 w! Y* f5 l
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 p3 f0 [( _! K/ I" ^ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
: l9 F4 R/ q2 n/ M( L0 ~ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability/ K9 |1 }/ q5 D* ^! B& v# n
following two years of deterioration.
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