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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 Z% F( F/ b5 k
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the9 m( s6 b+ o, Q0 N; Q# N6 p7 u
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive9 b r! e- i) I% A
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* Y* j- E: x' S6 C' B. Yaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.3 G* a3 W9 S2 @4 l6 Z; ~8 z
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"; c& k$ a* a7 z6 \& H% i2 z
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is' I) ~2 v6 a1 G$ ?
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability" _3 n2 C" c$ J; N' I& E4 q9 b4 I
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
/ Y3 h" s! J$ F6 w7 @$ |. o RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
8 z/ K9 Y6 x) tworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,. r3 e; I5 w7 o: E7 |: y1 ]
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have9 F/ Q5 s- E' E# ]$ g; ]/ k. j
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
( D2 q: v# }, B5 ` The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% A4 m: [+ u m |2 @* ]proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
$ i6 ~, F/ k9 b4 }home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.: N6 Y$ z4 o8 d- w S b6 S: u
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the9 m# ^' z3 o2 c
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
/ h( {" ^! W4 h8 f- ]the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.+ W5 P/ O7 r0 ]8 C& w
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets6 i' M2 c0 {# q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in8 f0 R/ ]2 y" g6 A
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at3 {/ j& f; r1 k" p: G# v+ T
historically depressed levels.6 Y. G6 K: j' i5 X6 s+ m
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
; J o2 r7 l( iof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House) G' M- P0 w. t2 f# @
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
9 h$ T% E% t% e+ S! |6 lhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% u7 o U! R5 x0 f- Tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the& \4 c1 @: B$ q3 e5 W) z- E
months ahead," added Hogue./ u% B# G4 K8 ^# X
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
. E$ G2 S( v4 q- Icities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary k5 P. \4 `6 T1 i4 q+ l4 J
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 ]7 I! z9 e% X- S2 d& M! }
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
3 S7 T9 y* \& o% ?- G+ [a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: T) {2 P! I5 m$ S* }5 Tcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only0 f1 z9 M1 R9 f/ p2 ]
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
; Z/ c# \2 Z0 y3 s The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is, w8 n# z' f4 ^$ o( A2 _. X, n/ `
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
+ V$ d. e6 `8 Y! ^& U% pbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
v, m* M0 v, Lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard7 F! Q `5 D) [8 o7 K/ j$ Q
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
8 E! e e2 i' i' t1 ^' X5 HFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
2 P E" |; u6 \! {9 c' k* c. Mcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 Q2 M2 x& T/ a, q
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.3 k+ u5 v t- ^, a
( D/ [, n F6 g" m, g4 s
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+ d$ q. Q! e3 S Highlights from across Canada:
- m- D) v" B! G, q% W6 `3 E4 P' ^* @! `/ J
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has% t9 S, W4 U$ d. \. f1 d* m' [6 I; O, T
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing5 R: k) V! F, h" I7 d; n5 a7 Q! W
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
2 W x+ F3 c. e" C only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
" V. _& t' J4 ]7 q2 ? since about the middle of 2007.
% U$ u1 k6 [, ?5 B' z- i) B6 Q# A, k - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
, ~% h7 t6 k) g1 v* G frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to/ T9 i+ o( J7 t* \$ Y1 |
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
* b9 f0 U9 J6 f" z8 F# t largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
7 K% j1 ]) R' I O poor affordability levels.
0 V# A% M6 W' g7 ]( z. b - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) g! Y) _+ Y2 t, i
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
; L5 b' W7 y. @9 _, D! \" b; o prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
# L& m* H5 I# Z! {8 k0 C N Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 L1 v' M5 @. a" M6 J* ?9 s7 y5 b9 W
minimize any downside risks.
6 Y( f7 ?$ M9 u7 F+ B! ^ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market6 k5 {, d" b3 U$ z6 l5 h- l- q
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
/ M% {0 i. u$ ]/ ~4 B unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
5 Q2 h/ P- s0 q1 z" o+ i 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
, U( e. N; J. A, J0 e being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
2 A/ @7 \3 R* T4 ?& j9 c - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 \. R+ {- H9 w. @ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
! H$ y# d* o5 Q far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, E% A3 q' j, k7 K' f
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
4 }) R! s/ L" t# c, O0 C ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, b4 ~7 j% N. o3 b* P c8 C- l
modestly in recent years.) I" P) u' n' V3 `
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the: |# N' {" ]! x9 b2 I) O4 A
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
1 u! \4 A; R7 n) F4 m spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward, y3 G7 q5 [6 T& B, ~. ?( A' I
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability" ]3 F2 ]+ M3 ]( j9 k
following two years of deterioration.: [2 ?8 k! ?1 _+ \
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