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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
3 o7 q3 N! Y- M( ^4 v TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
, j: b3 J' W& Q) t# t! g ?/ E8 jmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive9 g0 a# m/ G$ I! H# Y: S9 k
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,. M, ~! d& W- o1 O2 K
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: _# O: d( V; w; e) v/ F( M "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,", ^# E5 f1 g9 L8 ]5 @; [; j7 p
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is$ ]! F- A6 X( T* ~" U3 M
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
; ^; d9 J- T8 `! g$ D2 D" Omeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.". y; W$ C& K# E ?
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is9 w8 r& H2 n# B A5 K* @" F7 m
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
( T% }+ f, m1 Q p% \$ y: Twhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have8 s H- U9 ] u8 l9 [- H
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
0 y {" I2 U& t( u( n( } The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& N# ~1 X8 X+ v, ?
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
; H0 E7 G/ ]9 v% mhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.- |7 ^! K. s6 g1 [1 N
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the) d; [! L4 c8 D! C& ^6 G
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and$ h3 H; c* U" l) s* R- T; c5 a4 _
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
3 G2 _; `/ Q# H6 w: a1 F According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: n$ i( a2 |6 S3 N
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
0 E" j& z V2 n* E8 x+ I* [, I. C# e! Fthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at' f" Q5 S1 o0 t. i* s( F% h! M' x
historically depressed levels.4 |' R* d5 Y0 f, s$ V
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 m$ l; e O* v$ qof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
& W/ j3 r8 Z- tprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
7 }1 q9 E5 p2 s/ }1 _# hhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This' O. e* x4 O9 k8 H3 Y# ]' ~
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
7 ]9 f5 c) Z- y A# W' |& a, Xmonths ahead," added Hogue.
2 i. z0 f1 U" o, t0 q RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
/ b) r9 S3 v$ C: \# Q; G$ {cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: t: n+ Q* b, t' ]
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
5 l8 j% h$ N5 o9 N! b The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
6 i7 k+ h3 Y" @1 U4 ?4 }# Z1 @a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these8 C! B* P& i, I+ B' ?! |, \
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
8 K1 V! T2 r( p2 ctakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.9 A4 r' t# w0 p! S2 n% }# {9 g
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is( U0 h/ Y9 _! y, z) i
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
( z3 T; p# V+ n) e- B, j1 ybenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented7 ^9 V" p5 l4 z2 J3 E: c7 F
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
/ v; @* K$ u$ J/ P6 h+ u* U# E5 S6 Ucondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home., C0 y3 W) M' ~3 r
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 k4 J6 F# `1 ]) ^5 v9 s' ecosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 _ j& K w6 @) l2 M
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
* s& J- i5 }! I
6 p; ?" j* Q' e/ [1 O- _, K! b* \ <<7 A+ b- g V7 c4 [& P) j" w: x
Highlights from across Canada:
' |6 d; X% v" N( Q" u8 K$ k# M5 V( H2 r4 ^3 _9 |# r. ~% m
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has9 a5 f* K; F& [, z" D4 B1 D; R
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
8 U; z( J( Z7 H+ W% Y! n home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
( Z2 H8 K& P5 N; Q5 o, I9 p only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track" J+ N6 |; V$ H8 S
since about the middle of 2007.3 k) e1 ]& U3 i
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! ]5 I4 k4 a6 `' B! ~& n$ w7 l
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to; \# z1 A, o: B: q0 p, @( a
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
, M3 z# {) E3 u largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely5 o0 W' T6 j' N$ N) Y9 z0 ~( J
poor affordability levels.
`2 }" |% |: L, \" Y- ]. D2 Q - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
' A1 P- Y+ J) C7 o. c% W vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and' _, Q# ^: y8 v: r! b' t6 C
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
- q" g, E' B9 ^8 @5 T6 z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
+ F/ V* l3 E2 D minimize any downside risks.4 L t' p2 W6 @* |
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
/ {7 Q3 o; a* u$ h9 w conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is1 ~0 N- Z t; f0 W! T' l% @
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
% e. S& w$ ]+ Y. E8 E 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 o8 Q# O2 z3 J( X being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
3 j. w' ~7 U$ C" S F- m+ K! c - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
7 ? T. z0 o& j- S# p( {5 Y Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
. l. S8 l s0 C9 I& X) ~ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 x% `9 J0 p. m( ~* a; U( F
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
7 H, q/ P+ e6 F4 | ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
' ~9 t1 z5 I6 m( } modestly in recent years.! d0 K2 ~7 ^3 a4 [8 l6 |
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* E# l7 O9 w4 ~8 r# Q9 F: z4 z
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ I' }: Z! ^1 B% r- d& u2 D spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward& J% z5 B X( |+ [: i
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 j) n5 { E5 r% M following two years of deterioration.& q, G1 B' `5 e3 [% Q, b3 U
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