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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
2 ^( K; T: s/ q. m( q& Y$ p TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 u& O Y4 F& O! X# Q
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive6 [& p% @- v9 A+ a R4 e
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,% e- A5 S) X# M: ?: L- I
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
& Y5 q+ ~2 z4 h) k: \) s N, l9 \: T "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"; @& ~6 {+ k* ^. u
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is6 G7 X% N) J" [6 W( g/ h5 k
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability& h. i. W2 D0 D- S6 \3 D" a" R
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages." B* v8 j5 k% x2 @/ }
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 C7 i+ M5 t5 R J! _, h2 [& _& Aworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 A, E. W4 K- ~0 @1 p# {. t q8 ~
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have9 e% E0 S% _) |6 T- ]. @+ x
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) G1 R N y( M) ?; g The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
& B/ u$ U% {6 H5 Pproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" _+ e4 w; B/ P- y w4 t
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.$ Z% A5 X% h0 ^0 w; P
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
i' o: i0 D; pstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and- Q1 k6 f( [' W
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent." t! ]: M5 k6 I
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
d+ g" k+ T9 U5 Imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
V- c- g: U1 s8 y- U# f& Othe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 e1 U* X0 o, r) }/ W/ p: V( mhistorically depressed levels.# m# @, v' x- k3 V4 U
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost) E& S! U3 j; c; F" r. s r
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House5 B; h5 E* w# G
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
0 X! n1 L0 M4 ^% G) vhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
+ l c3 \" v$ R, l- Q; n' ]- M4 T5 fenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
: T1 d8 }% }3 b# T3 x: P4 a. n! Zmonths ahead," added Hogue.; i A- V+ b. d f/ M5 `0 c- X2 p# A5 {4 f
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% C8 O2 g6 D3 o7 i5 _; _1 O- k% k
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
& J% [0 L! O d7 }$ ]7 E42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
' o, Z: G( p, ?( C* {4 W6 d! } The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* m9 {8 p6 U# x, Z4 o3 b. h; u
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these1 }3 y* ~7 c% {( q( J
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only/ f5 P, Z- z9 J! o
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
$ d& u$ { c0 ?9 N The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is/ L1 J+ W7 s) @ x6 w
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ Z/ ]4 L7 g" ^, i9 j" P F7 s7 L9 y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
B3 f! |. N pincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard7 D" `" M) W. V7 m
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
3 Z1 z4 x0 g$ l5 E4 D/ FFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 ?$ {* |; L! Z) Ccosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 ~( `9 B9 i0 }% ?; q& [0 e
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
' ^6 s1 D8 O) E$ u% L8 K
4 ]% y; [% O8 ?$ X <<# b: ?9 x5 `+ l/ ?
Highlights from across Canada:; W% I* U/ S2 D+ R9 k6 E2 y
& F3 i! \- A- _0 T0 P4 B/ t# ?
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 v4 i; |. v$ B6 O8 c intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
+ l: u4 R7 @% j8 b) N home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound h7 Q6 U+ T7 O! ~- P
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track; s6 m& o9 N* J1 a+ H* w
since about the middle of 2007.
2 a' H N( Z0 }" O5 { - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
I3 D- |4 P! q5 j/ M frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
^* Q. z. X0 `3 b$ H decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still' J# }% I$ F8 T3 A* L
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* d0 P4 B- N# y) [% i7 [ poor affordability levels.+ Z- K- k& d1 Y& k
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
2 d( t# ^: G0 d5 n' ?- J1 _ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and. T6 i0 _/ X4 ~, x2 z
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
% X9 v( m# [" @ A% e% G Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to4 U+ G* p) p7 S6 c. E7 t& s8 M
minimize any downside risks.
! Y* Z! ~9 l& Q' f* c - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market" {. d' d# _' M' |
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is: X& r( U# D4 I) F
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early3 F% F% w; j0 {" i: T j+ Y
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 H1 H4 V" R k$ L being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
$ ~& O& I; i) ` e+ @& T- ~8 t/ B& ^0 g - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in2 Q: W& U" R& b5 \- V! c+ W
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
' u+ b) F) Q3 N6 J: b far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
5 T% c, g9 h/ c L% s' X! I& l reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be5 s4 u" v# Z2 N
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
. O- z$ I3 l0 p, t1 w8 f modestly in recent years.
( q( F U9 k4 _) H; [ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the; |# N: m4 O( x* Z0 A) O" F& l- Y
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
4 R* h0 q4 ]# j% |/ N. i* }$ c spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
) \0 x; p B! z$ v price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
5 ] b$ o6 z/ Y5 k0 o following two years of deterioration.5 I3 \0 O; T5 f A4 L
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