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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC . B$ ?0 c- [8 D# i. ^
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
! {0 W" h" r! a) s1 ?3 Emiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
" x# e& F3 F- m; d8 {gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
$ Y. g' S4 i# Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) H* f6 Y/ F, {9 c7 }
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' O' _! T8 J5 c3 X, ksaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is# q' [2 t. s$ P- K6 `- R8 q
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 X/ y, \+ J+ `& X: f# V9 J
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."' }# q7 E1 {& c
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
# E5 L3 z N6 D1 q4 Q! `worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: i( g1 ]/ O$ ^& j' |8 Ewhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have) C$ {9 \9 \# Z8 r% D% U3 N9 V; z
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% A. D& \8 `' E- ? The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the j/ j( S5 h4 e( R
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
& o- i( v0 I1 K: l% h* ghome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008., b* p2 C+ F; m& w! S- \8 A! }
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the: X9 C, }: A0 k
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and) t( P( x S2 f6 i7 e* n
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
2 F/ L' b) S# C% {3 j! k According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets# B" n" s$ o5 X! i
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in- F7 u" E, v" O2 i2 ^% u% t
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at7 R6 f0 L) {" y% L" Q$ u" J! f
historically depressed levels.
( b- B$ t$ T! L% ?6 S& n Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
8 S) B' Q4 M& z2 D# o3 uof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
/ ~' T! ?) l# w8 Zprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the! I, P1 G/ O( {, H$ L
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
* k B u% r. U5 g7 Q5 l6 Jenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
1 z& C$ u+ [( f+ Imonths ahead," added Hogue.
" Q' g. k7 l4 w! a% U RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
' K3 k8 _# B0 K, Rcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
. b' m7 [) N+ }* k7 I42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# K# u6 `1 C8 n# M& } The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
* B7 \7 `7 D& V4 l* M4 ?a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
3 ?% P7 e9 d4 Y3 pcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only. J4 D" K/ h; ?7 @# m5 c
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account., J7 A; V a1 I
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 a0 N* {1 q* y! K
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
6 L% B, {1 e4 ?( gbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
5 j+ P/ M, q3 rincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard, {5 F% a1 ^( u- b+ \# C
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. l+ w, J0 m. Y. l/ ~$ @
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership* z- W6 k' g' R# q9 G$ y
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
8 _" R$ B* f5 ]' r9 qper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.& p! Q7 j8 I- R2 f: ^) f9 _1 R
6 t" s% X' y, p; K3 X% Q6 K- I+ U
<<- l6 F6 G6 [4 u4 [3 ~) a1 |7 [
Highlights from across Canada:/ j- b* G- @$ e" n
' A5 Q! i5 t b! i' ` - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 N: b* m& \7 F1 m8 S8 | intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; _" e T. w2 [& g3 Y home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound) p" P1 ?7 l; ~7 V
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track4 ~7 A2 @* z. G% e
since about the middle of 2007.$ a( x/ ?3 a) M5 O' ?1 i! L/ s2 b
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
4 P# J1 Z8 \- H0 G frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
/ ~- ?8 | s- d d6 V decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* P4 W( S7 F1 ] I% Q _+ n
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
, D; M/ O4 o# E6 `# Y1 u8 O+ J: F poor affordability levels.% o" U7 r7 o% j9 Y$ {
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 O1 p* ~/ }0 Z2 y o! M, H9 p vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and- ~1 ^3 p& a- k
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.' n5 b% E( J; c* Z
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. H* i$ r& I/ z4 i3 R minimize any downside risks.
- D2 Y, \8 u& Q - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
, j( {0 D' Z$ v: N: f conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is$ d' t; V: I( N% m: f0 f* g
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early4 ^; ^3 C& x# i
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly5 V5 Q J; d: r+ u
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
5 I( C( J7 x2 c* s; U! `* c - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in6 \* {1 {7 E& u3 [# y r
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
2 a" c# d- f7 y* v, d! R9 e z; L far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
; }, Y- X' Q1 R reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be! Q3 [' X8 a& D
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
1 G7 U K# K* O G modestly in recent years.
8 q0 ^- c4 Y% l( _+ R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* P1 W4 v1 Y# [0 u5 q
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot3 Q7 v! h( \& J: Z5 l' d
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
% H1 V7 M E) a* B price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability: K9 h$ S) Q/ J' U( \, _! i0 `
following two years of deterioration.
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