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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
/ \7 Z* C9 l" n1 P( u. N TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ M1 \! H! y8 |0 R0 Q
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
2 J9 H K6 _7 U6 z/ agains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,2 p6 q" V1 J1 [# M: U6 K% N
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 ^0 L8 r1 M+ ` G4 o "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' c- W0 p9 E! C/ ^4 f! K; z X( ]said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" U; v" O# O/ k6 X$ |9 nimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
7 K- k" b, p: h3 A! o$ @measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."( X- | g. J! m
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is* G# v- l6 [. c, z" u
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,5 F" b @( v7 ~! \9 |
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
+ _3 Y1 f( ^. l# M) V; R' tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
. g. w3 s) F8 t1 s# @" L7 V The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& V7 o# F, M2 M' u/ ]) D& I, Z+ R
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- Q- |4 Z) M; ]/ O, Z- V0 I3 `' uhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.2 z/ r4 E& g" I; c4 ?" y5 D/ ?* q& Y
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 g# W+ p3 l5 E' W8 q: M7 G+ v) D
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 p6 Z- d3 |2 x
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
& {0 U4 J' V- b! E2 Z; s. Q* e+ s According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
4 H, I2 G! w) Amay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
5 k; @$ R! ~0 u5 S# Z( f" E" `the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 L$ [) y) s% ]$ r6 N! Uhistorically depressed levels.! l( b, z, \' p9 G. ^; ?- \" u
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
/ H! I0 |8 r1 o4 C8 N0 b g _% `of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
2 s5 A) \; c7 V; ?% |3 b' Jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" u& B/ P+ o1 q! a: P8 ?* B6 ?hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This3 n ]# W- g+ X5 r6 ^& E- J
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
8 d2 E- s# ] v* R E6 c' bmonths ahead," added Hogue.
3 ?" z' U" o3 B5 v9 y M# Z+ ] RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest: |1 d4 m' ^8 s! i
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary+ Q% z- @- @$ ^: c/ P9 Q3 c4 |
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
: F# v1 _+ K% P9 ?' ` The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
1 P+ B) q2 p( ha broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
. O, h3 |" F7 j9 p5 y; w9 @cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
+ x) T5 c' [* Q5 Ptakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 s7 f& j& k; K4 j8 e
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is c* z. O: U* h1 @: V
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
\( Q% ^3 i* p7 Hbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
5 ?- X" _8 O9 Q2 W, O& e: i% Mincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
w$ A7 h6 I1 a+ Qcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 t. N' d3 V& N6 W& r& v$ O! h6 JFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 e) T# B$ O* D _costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50, A: |) e+ a9 `4 ~8 Y p
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 |7 O7 S4 O6 o" I
$ ]: E7 G- y- j M* w
<<" p4 @! O# {( B! {
Highlights from across Canada:
2 O+ O6 x; Y, M8 x4 @$ c
- b/ }- ~, X7 e. r" m - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has9 d3 o9 Q ~$ W( O0 o0 ^+ q8 I3 m
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 R2 S$ ]1 E1 g, P home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound# p+ V2 l* w# I( J
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
/ k" d' j" W( H0 o# S; K# N since about the middle of 2007.$ X$ v; W" G6 w6 S; e( C
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the: p; B6 d5 X9 }8 b; `' G
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to+ K" o; ^! t: i; m( k* F
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still- j) i) o0 G( ^3 S2 m
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' }2 S& x( X6 v6 f4 I poor affordability levels.( Q8 h: r! R0 O5 e
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the% z3 u* @2 o# [2 \; u$ B/ w
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# q) y5 r6 H5 N. s3 c prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' y2 t0 b; X! c2 u+ A& [ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
& Y& p9 Z8 w+ j2 O; A minimize any downside risks.
6 }& S( v: Y& Z2 p - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
$ ^7 n% I+ j7 w- O; B: d conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
5 k- U8 n- u9 }# S! ]* K unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early9 Q U; W: ^0 k) ~4 j0 R) q. _
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly, _2 |- b# ~) R: Q) t/ H& b
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
% z g; J/ ]: N2 j) O - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
5 p# E, D: N* D4 u0 {: W Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
! u2 N, V, d! s, T* H# x far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 B' }. m, X; Y6 V5 f+ d reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be. u! e4 p4 `& N$ K: K3 O7 u
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
5 D" q' f( {7 _ modestly in recent years.8 W% m! E* x. I z
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
# _ S- ~- c2 ~' ? general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
/ y, O4 X6 d4 i9 q6 T& k: a, A spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
R9 L, ]* I1 V' w price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability+ G6 R# H; j- P' Y& R
following two years of deterioration.8 m8 c8 b( V6 |. `! g( c. i
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