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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 `7 z2 y" E8 ~ i
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the- p: a3 T8 M$ x4 C% Z) t
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive* M1 E7 {" q; I; b
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
+ [% a" X' O [# e( Saccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. k" U" d3 P- w0 h: E% L
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,". |- j: e) }: } E* B# Z3 X
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
' k* k7 d0 m0 Q+ [ R1 Nimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
9 ]$ `; u% \2 T7 A- d; omeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
) h2 e. ]4 i' y4 u2 g RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! h( v0 n& B5 O5 yworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, k- o% j2 U% `; ?8 O5 x; l, @which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have8 m9 V+ k* l G4 ^
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.8 B2 V. r1 `" r7 o. d5 H
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the8 u) O3 w5 I& A- o m) k) H$ |3 D! H
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a: F {1 G& ], `' |3 x/ l& E
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
7 y. Y, w1 o! k; R6 D+ ]2 _* dAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the- O# b- a! S4 F G1 K
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and4 l j0 H8 A' E2 o
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
- ]7 j5 W% S, n According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
! z" N/ |/ y/ ~; x; Imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in+ X- G! @) D1 T Y( E
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at0 _, a( T M' Y2 |7 w- O
historically depressed levels.: R; _; _% p1 A$ f) ~0 Z
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
3 B% r* x7 G6 `of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
$ K2 ?; `7 M% @6 C) P+ sprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the+ H: \- \! T" a' E
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
* @ Z P k. W. C1 m( x& Eenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the0 F. K% |6 u8 t6 K9 G4 X0 {
months ahead," added Hogue.# O! T0 B# k, w! R& H' Y: W
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest9 e7 i1 N' m" y/ [ Q# N
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
" E" n5 B3 D% W. W- G# Q2 M; v42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 Q5 C8 Z1 b/ a5 h, J5 y
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for+ V; j5 Q6 k7 y* z
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: E# ~6 P v$ T' w0 vcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; c- o4 z, |+ Ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.0 w' y' a% p8 Q$ P# P& k# `" R: }
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
. W, Y, N3 w9 o* K, Y* Nbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
* p/ b) r4 Y: X. jbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
. E; K3 |7 G( ~0 ~+ o) Tincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
8 e7 M3 w" N; o) pcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.5 P* H1 `* o. f6 ^. n& T" F
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
- Q# {9 d. y6 |6 E, `+ d9 Ccosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50" @3 {7 p8 |1 z- O* A
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.9 s* w% T! i* s( X; l
% b W9 i. Z: w5 w9 d3 r; R
<<' |8 }% Y' g0 D# Z4 ^4 j
Highlights from across Canada:; C8 U; L$ H% o- n- H
! j6 Z K: G9 E0 ^( ]- m
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
. ?3 t; D. s/ { intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
6 G0 t t% F5 q' a0 Y2 m0 D home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound* ~9 w% ?. `# a3 S' G# m
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
. e, {, k+ {1 T/ C' G m since about the middle of 2007.5 N, ?6 Q; U* d' m( k
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
2 a4 R) m& Z% M, w6 U frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
$ L# [, w8 G9 p7 a+ H0 V' J decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still1 @! [$ q1 i. _5 d4 b
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. @% O0 r7 c: \ a% x
poor affordability levels.4 E+ D' j( @6 n( n% A. ?% ]
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
5 n7 v6 T( M/ z$ t$ k+ ? vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ z( m; C# K& J. E! E* O9 T/ `6 ]0 Q
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
1 P: [9 L7 b' e$ p+ l* y Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: e- \! F! u! D, F! A5 ]+ B( H/ H minimize any downside risks.3 M! L, S, d( _- r- X, ^9 y
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
( s: z! x7 |' J conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is K( _2 ?& [* y6 _' G% D3 y8 }
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
/ ]$ b& }: b1 |, I. X, h3 T 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly: d* u; A0 a, p/ b% F" {
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
' b9 M9 x$ R! f p# _ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in8 w, L! B& C: o( D! x4 j7 [
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus, i4 _) B. J, Y! ~! F W
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
! a* c# C& R7 E# y reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be. |3 W1 K3 q6 }/ Z5 O
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only6 S4 }; h) u+ S5 R9 E
modestly in recent years.
/ I% ~; o; t0 @' z4 b - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
9 q/ X+ E0 V: G0 T6 G3 S) R8 O% A( M general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot; @4 X r7 h& `- k2 M- z
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward2 j B: i" v/ S. H
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability& \2 d1 Y; s6 |$ O
following two years of deterioration.9 V' g9 P) u$ J, N, Y
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