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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 1 L" b/ ?8 R! s2 z1 h$ Y
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the: _0 R9 I$ E) e) g0 y8 {4 A' Q* U9 x
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
3 i7 \ D% i4 w* F$ Ngains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, ?( j3 [* s" G# H* G" C2 iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
U6 p+ `7 H- E/ Y: k "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"/ a+ Z" ^4 Z& d) j7 \
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is& ]1 `1 F8 a2 @" d3 W+ x0 @
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability, ]5 Q D {' U$ F: A4 v! N
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 |% l+ V" P' a* H
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
/ M# F* H3 W# E3 ^worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,# g4 P3 Q- {6 M A' B
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
+ O2 M& ?* w% p6 a6 ysustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
3 z# z. d) G" R The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
- Q" |. e- ^7 l/ p5 Aproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a/ E' q) F1 y& l) V# [, U+ {
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
, p% l7 q4 G0 }, \! v$ PAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" l K6 L2 p& T9 r( s
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and5 U( h) N' O5 D1 C) B# q
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent. a4 [) J: {% ?4 }
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 s$ n# a4 x. ?9 f4 M Z2 Y, P
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in( ^" m1 F7 q) _, [9 X& A9 d
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# \& @& R. c- p4 H
historically depressed levels.
1 Y6 }, u* m$ s& _7 k$ L0 I Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost2 C$ d% l1 _3 m2 e h+ p6 @
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House( U u# o! F+ a: Y4 P
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# h7 v: C3 H0 n1 T' W' I( A& m
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 Q5 V$ Z' S$ `, \2 P# L ?enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the; E8 W/ n+ z9 d' n. M" {
months ahead," added Hogue.
: A# W2 |3 q4 `- w! K( P; i RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% |- { Z2 p, l2 A: |8 g
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary! H- [- v, [1 R% {( c
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
2 r0 d# g( H9 w8 `2 J- N6 c The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
, P9 h' U- Q5 Qa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- B! y" j; ]5 c! r
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only8 j! U+ Q& f# }1 J) f/ g" {
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
* s5 x/ c% i) V. i. @ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
4 `1 k: C4 m; a; D9 Obased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property3 x2 c4 @! @3 a8 J2 ?& u8 l
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% S% N* a f' t1 M" s! Q- a& H' jincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
" l1 m; C( K- n( R2 C: \/ ]condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
3 c0 n& [$ K6 ~8 V' ]For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership4 G% I: i: L R3 a3 J5 L( a
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
4 z: Q, L- v6 Qper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 M: R4 R! P: V- I4 F
# x. i3 @- M! i4 Q4 M <<; Z" t0 \9 S/ r. h
Highlights from across Canada:
* s9 K1 @7 w+ }
: J c% P% b+ [# b! L8 I - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has: T3 f7 x' _& }4 I; ]2 B; a* }
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ T5 D+ b4 P6 U* X* g) t) @ {- {" A home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
" s4 x; y) k8 b$ r7 D! o) P only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: @8 ^/ B& p% Z2 Z8 z% {6 m since about the middle of 2007.( E. b z3 f2 A
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
' Q* o/ [' |$ e4 A4 V. q frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
4 D1 t- J+ y2 f/ l9 W decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
6 T4 C& {1 x8 e' y' M* j largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. [7 e% P& {9 E) ]
poor affordability levels.
6 S9 v5 k9 j8 t U5 G - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the: w# e( k) B6 Y5 C9 K$ s
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
0 B3 K" [$ C6 O: W8 O$ w prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
& {) l' ]8 v+ ?' [9 ] Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
; E- c' g! r* R- Q. x minimize any downside risks.
: x# u w$ o, f3 e X( D+ h - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( B7 p, i& W9 V9 i4 X
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is6 j8 {2 v7 y0 Q4 w( q
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
* m7 L# B& D) M% S 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly- y7 O$ B) u( X5 m! m: F8 [6 `4 A
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
1 K5 p' Q$ z8 {& r. O! G, } - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
/ p" u L3 i# Q Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
$ E6 L5 a2 K1 C2 q. k" t" _ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
7 [( Y. f7 U% z, G8 `/ A3 t3 g0 t# x reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be, T# m/ B7 Z4 \( H/ N
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only" X% I# C4 q4 X% j) I8 G7 g
modestly in recent years.
4 y2 G; m2 T4 r, a0 f6 \8 }, W/ D - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the5 \: @% Z: k) x7 m8 g
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
. f: B; ?% _) Q# _. ] spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
/ P( E) r; ]$ U price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability' [; T7 T# l) j( h- Z
following two years of deterioration.. ~4 Q4 e$ f& O) c+ {1 P+ n
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