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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ; R. p! g8 S% r; _
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
: [9 b+ y. |+ X+ o, [middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive6 o1 v9 w. w) c* \
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,4 f u( J3 [3 Y9 g! p
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.* _, t5 T M- D- I2 M
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
! M0 e, H3 c6 [& q3 osaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
- L8 u) h$ q8 ]; M& ?( y* q w) cimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! z3 I: x, D& A* umeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
% u! \- j+ v" S6 B# O1 b RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is: ?" g, I( W5 f
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,; h% B4 H; r* d
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
/ J2 I; j( h* A5 v6 rsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
( ~+ D$ ?3 f2 C7 t3 ?1 {0 l. L The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( I0 }8 t, O# ]" }1 qproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a- i, R) j# z0 f8 y+ L
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008. a/ g' G8 A" Q, l8 _8 l
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the* A4 w* n$ T/ S
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
4 H4 m7 D9 |# T; t& n7 |+ t' K8 Uthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* M/ b/ |7 H; ?5 \+ O, C' R2 X
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
6 H& u4 L% Y7 Y! j6 W( h# J1 ]9 q0 [$ Vmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
; ?' b) X4 a2 T! a2 e+ b9 ythe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at1 U$ K7 U" \1 V h; M. q
historically depressed levels.
; ]- E5 i" H/ C" Q# D. |/ `) n" q Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, \ \9 M }, n9 w* O9 ^# J" `2 |
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& c! T$ y5 Q$ R, B
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
) ]* w) Y- u+ n# D; \ L qhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This' R" j) s" e/ S! h
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the6 @- q0 _6 @, h) j5 z! |
months ahead," added Hogue.- z( a* j& L' t4 B& p
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
0 f `5 \0 [9 I5 a6 E1 G0 Dcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
{5 m2 _* `# _$ [! A' y" W; k42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
0 \4 Y7 k# V1 S$ u: Z; `: R The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" H9 D5 N' R, ]* A
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' k- z: x; G' T. @& v' E
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% B! c: F& g0 A0 S
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
; t4 H0 G4 l$ B w: C0 n The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
2 v# n2 f# G" d: {& H! X9 c6 A6 dbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property' T3 T! c7 q1 H3 a
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented9 c) h1 p! p/ X; _
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 J1 r" o: {4 Jcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.$ b$ S7 T; \3 J9 N
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
! V+ g6 D. s' t8 w+ K( i% ]costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
. q k( P6 L# i4 u. ?) v+ aper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
4 t( n0 y, C3 ~& f V
2 c+ O6 j J! b) M4 D <<
. i x& @1 D1 o& ]+ r$ }$ h$ K Highlights from across Canada:* a b" c- j$ i
3 ]% x4 y/ g$ M4 \6 v4 n
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 G& a! i0 q5 z intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
. [0 r( ?$ g) U, ~( h) W( } home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
# P% G$ M& ]4 c. U$ w0 n only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track& D; g! |5 G5 t# m
since about the middle of 2007.+ ^, h V: b: a. B; H
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
2 r. y" n$ `6 r5 h frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
( ^* h2 z7 p8 ]7 I# Z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
( D( {: x4 Z( u7 f3 V) D largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
" L2 C+ V9 c! @' g9 k8 x$ F poor affordability levels.
5 t7 k. C' S; M, @, i - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. X8 T# P5 |9 T- ? vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and+ O/ [" G5 [ m2 u* r6 y; l
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.+ g: x" X6 Q. O: m
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
$ ?, ~; a) r F4 d3 ~% | k: J minimize any downside risks.
; x. _; u& Y. {1 K2 o" ~ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market5 I( h0 a0 W8 l/ k: M' P' Z) S
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
* g7 Z/ M. {) q2 U4 T2 I2 j unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, n- f; B/ [8 H1 N8 A8 n; h* g
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
( u7 t- c @! U0 x3 P( C being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
" V) S, p8 Y* N' K, X, r3 v) R - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- U& Y+ ] ]) G* M3 |: Q! | Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus: m& t% I) I2 f/ E1 A9 v
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
" |! }# \, D, z& k reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be5 m/ k& I1 r; a
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only6 L. c) h7 @" O1 R- _
modestly in recent years.8 u3 _( P: U3 z1 j. I7 t3 V
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. ?% o1 i$ L- l0 R
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
4 P' f* W5 U1 ?3 S spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
1 X" m# z4 v5 o+ v) e8 `2 @ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 z: m; G1 K2 _1 b! }
following two years of deterioration.8 m( b/ L8 V) t( V! ?
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