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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
- q$ x+ v% [4 R; c Q$ x7 [ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 G8 D4 w/ q# K" \5 X9 ~/ P
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive7 J; v& \* x- b' l; v
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,1 `- M3 x- g7 k3 L& s' f' A
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
/ q) d: Y3 R! P: H: _) F3 W0 O! a# m "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"+ M# f2 Z4 w& J
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is" q) Z1 u' Z$ w
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
n: S6 j: z) \/ _; w5 j6 Lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
9 c3 p8 g# w9 y7 U2 S+ X8 u3 \) W RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
0 [5 k. O6 c: f3 |6 _7 T( kworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
7 _5 A) \2 T& j# z1 } {) U9 Rwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have* _* Y Q3 l* f( X3 }
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.. O9 y% n% W) r. N: {# d
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 c' {* F/ J1 K* Y
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a- M& H: S9 y1 J s& G+ k
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& r* q4 ^: Z+ }Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the, f" p1 V, f$ c- }+ G6 d
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
/ u+ R+ |6 V6 ?8 }0 ^* [" Athe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
6 T4 D) z' h1 [: T% P8 U9 I, j According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets5 @+ b4 N: ^4 k
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in* z$ f; z+ S5 o9 }- R$ y
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, x: u3 P4 S" S% K& v. Yhistorically depressed levels.
" r4 a) O% |# g' C+ l+ |. c Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
# W7 _2 W/ a9 [( _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House' ~2 Z( ?) x* S+ ^8 @2 J4 _# U* L/ Q+ ?
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
2 f& m4 W+ {: nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This$ T/ _7 t! G# ^
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the" A$ c' ^/ K4 g e! [
months ahead," added Hogue.) e. u/ [( y" ]( p( c
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 C7 T: G( I" ?2 A1 T4 Y! L
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
. p6 K9 k: Y6 v- H/ B42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.2 U# s" g+ X* @ Z: V9 j5 L$ |
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) d0 @5 J ~! G- E) t ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
x) \# F$ \3 x* ]5 B0 K0 r6 ncities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, `& c/ @9 I9 b: Ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.; H( V* f1 f4 h7 I9 X
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is2 j- y& G) }+ P0 B6 {: U* j. q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
% a: K- _, m7 B0 |% z9 Q- fbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
_- F$ X6 j, T; u6 i) @including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard1 H! b K |/ z* y4 @7 J9 y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
8 N" Z* {( t8 m! u/ i5 i+ s6 L aFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership+ q) c9 C7 j# X2 K: n n. K
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
3 P# Z# C3 @# I' Bper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 o) A; Y. B6 k; [- L
0 F+ X0 I5 V7 `/ x5 r: Q5 y/ q; J <<8 T' N5 B0 x J
Highlights from across Canada:) d: O7 _ ^/ c3 x4 h- \
9 G% ~8 h0 C9 I4 b5 [! ]! a6 b - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
5 P/ M: j' [" ^5 D& y intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing* Z. I8 f0 c0 {4 w' @
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
6 K# z) w5 ?/ f only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
$ e1 {* Q; r7 f3 k$ } since about the middle of 2007.+ K- Q2 w {8 v% o( s
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
o! p- W" p( A1 w6 N8 e frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
( l' C8 r. M0 I6 ]( C7 G decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still# }; e3 g/ p+ J3 N' a# i1 R7 T" o6 A
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely0 }' x2 Q# F$ P; k$ k) f+ P. @+ U
poor affordability levels.
: S, C5 a1 A8 l# J7 D$ G* j4 M - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
1 k% e8 V# A5 E$ D3 w& L' }! n7 P vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ [* L! \9 d/ W% ]. `
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ L: j% k p0 @ c8 c Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to4 @( |" @# W' P- s. i+ y! @1 w
minimize any downside risks.
. ?- _) ]3 g( g/ U - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market' E+ ~; V. {6 v* b4 @8 G
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is- `$ @% z( o u5 F6 D0 w! y1 \- n
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early5 z# g' [9 v* ~/ _! k* B ]
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly& a) i( z0 {( Y) }$ f
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages., Q6 v s. v( n' Z3 j+ {/ Q
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# V, x5 y6 W, x Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
9 |2 V* a4 P/ B' J/ G2 k$ Z far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
/ V; \& P- Q9 v4 x, i9 s& q5 l# G reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be( B1 J w* E( z$ H* G3 _
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" M0 r n2 m' C: k/ d C modestly in recent years.
3 _# a" p& U* T+ b" W( @ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the" F: s$ u, d) x z, U
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
6 C( [) A/ }0 t& i( C# h1 H. C! b spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. X4 Z) r' R" t1 ^% w3 Z price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
6 M! {4 E2 q8 Z0 \* x following two years of deterioration.# R; d2 y. a( C: D7 T
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