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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # R% B4 h+ `2 A! m9 v
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the/ W% t* M# |3 Q6 x0 S! V& A% d+ V
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
. I: Q4 @: a, x+ m$ R1 {4 U+ _3 ~) K9 @gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 w( ^2 V, F& j& k7 R
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.% k- \0 ?$ e9 x+ J/ k% O9 B
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
" F, e3 b) H% I- Asaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is3 l" s' S! U8 N5 K! Q0 @: ~! B9 ~
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability# q3 J1 W1 M& M4 C# a. `
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
7 y0 m! G! E9 W: S% j- A3 \ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
. D1 N; z! c& D% [+ Lworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
) F% N: n: t; R' [/ Qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have$ Y J! R7 C3 K e4 O" M- i( O' h+ ?
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. i! z/ S O5 ?& r& G6 N
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the* W9 N2 S" \" g$ O- V
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a6 j5 ^" I* M4 F& s, C/ j
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
! q/ A2 f% j: _; UAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
$ {3 B* b$ z+ U$ M" y: d; ystandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
$ x9 Z0 O- q' Q! u# Q( @the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ ?7 Y. \# v* P7 }/ L8 ?
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
7 Q% P; V! e% ]2 h- z! ?may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in8 i0 Y* S1 t# g- l
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at: R- M! I( [2 J( s
historically depressed levels.: E3 Q8 L% L: ~
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
8 y. x5 w+ r$ Q5 ^2 Vof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
8 { n' K+ ?! mprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
- l# d- S/ k J% e& [( V5 Yhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; z7 X1 ]8 s' z) |3 ?3 e
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% ^6 C3 V7 Y2 s7 o- r
months ahead," added Hogue.( I9 D: o6 \& W% S$ s$ @( C7 j" g5 l
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest: k6 Y! K2 ^$ [8 w0 e
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
# d2 ?- {4 h/ q J% j42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent. k A# A. r% w
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for3 E$ r, E( I" k/ V) b. p) @0 o; M
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
9 l1 I1 s5 y% {. R: acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
1 ^4 y% S' d0 R( ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
2 s. f' h# H5 J( D2 f# j$ f The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is; }* z4 I* v6 L; Q% ~% `$ V
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
* D2 ^+ s. X4 ?1 Dbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# E9 ?. E0 c+ l7 Y$ ?
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
& o/ `) j# O }5 k: Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. z9 c6 k3 z6 A* t- s8 |2 r# I
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership; D8 R7 J h# i: ?
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
2 F- O: W' j4 b9 G1 ^" Fper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.+ L; l( A& ~$ B
7 l+ X; g; J9 A4 ]7 `1 m+ d <<- L) h3 |% P3 a- d c) M
Highlights from across Canada:# j( H5 |, h3 X: r. W* E: j' J
* ^4 d! f/ U" X" t% w2 Y8 o
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) C7 f6 I- v* e5 F' ?2 l
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing2 ^* X! ? D% t; L( ?' k3 E. U
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
7 l7 H* N+ h9 |, F7 [/ d' ?( }/ X) ` only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track5 b+ v' x' q& x) b' P5 a! v2 V6 e
since about the middle of 2007.3 K4 ~; c; i3 m9 C; G+ }$ ?5 H
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the- g; o0 a' ?0 }- \5 R; V
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
' r" D3 W3 J6 F( n decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) h" L/ o1 V# c- U largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
# V9 G0 Q j! u poor affordability levels.6 n9 G$ o( w. t! v" W: J6 e
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
8 o; \, d1 G8 `; m4 {, R% B vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 I; G! n! G4 s: W2 m% A. z prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 \9 ~8 F4 |& D6 a# w Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
% l. g5 E R$ V( T, N: M7 l! w( i minimize any downside risks.: M) B1 F/ F4 f: t4 X
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market6 A @$ y; E" e! {6 h) s; V9 Z7 p
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is+ ?* C/ K9 g: R$ A! @4 i
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early: E+ K0 U3 _2 |
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly y4 b% E( O Y3 Y1 K4 y
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
" Z1 T f, h7 }$ a' V& o - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in2 I" E8 Z) @ O$ |- F* k1 W( K
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 F- _5 r/ J( S! M! p i2 S far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up1 }9 Q0 m0 @5 M
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! Y2 o7 _" s. @& v ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only4 E, B" I' N5 `+ O/ ?4 i
modestly in recent years.4 n& l: t6 n' w. V5 l
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( t& F, G1 z1 H, d general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot1 Q' y3 K2 { |2 d! x
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward, r Y# J' w' ^ ~, |, i
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability5 V+ o8 ?( ~0 l' v6 ?$ S
following two years of deterioration.
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