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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC B" x' K/ _3 ?/ O! t9 l( S7 T
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the- r3 q7 D# o m8 ` N
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
. z, Q" i6 l: K% R7 ^gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,: s2 k8 C7 Z5 O# `
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 W% P4 J, f' i9 a. ^' Y2 z9 h5 n "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"; O$ _4 Y( s$ D2 u" Y
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
) _& V( l$ `% n0 a C: Y; jimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
0 o2 P# L) _& z% S( n$ ?measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."; X0 ?( u+ b! z; b) `& Q4 n
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. e4 z3 d- \+ D1 b' l
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,& S! @1 u* p. P% |3 F. F
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 Y' f# Y+ f+ o5 n. c
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
, a) G$ F& u* O; [" u6 H The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 W8 p6 o9 ]4 q, J" P; Y
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 d" f% |* `0 A5 b- @home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008./ B2 t) ~0 u) e- C; j- X2 @
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 f& a5 P; T" `7 @) t8 V, }
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and$ ~9 T: f3 z( G Q
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.# ^) L' k. v h: s5 p6 w4 G! z/ N
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: f6 |) i' }) S* u
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in, h( w8 T7 g4 |
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
# K% W' f& x; ]historically depressed levels.
, O8 q3 E0 Y1 q4 h0 e3 b Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ w6 A- H8 |% ]( u- @" fof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House1 s4 f4 Y; I5 u+ v
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, E# b d9 ?) I" N5 ^1 }
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This4 ?0 g, u$ Q2 ^4 s! f: a% [
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* H' m, \1 U. K( K6 K- J4 I
months ahead," added Hogue.' [5 N' ?$ @* o& J! g6 L- |
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
/ m& E7 p3 U9 x1 E6 b5 Ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
0 ?( s3 |5 {5 g9 q2 p4 _42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ t4 P0 h" N4 I" K. | c The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for) M% b( `+ c+ Y/ d; a6 |8 Z
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
, u- c, S) J: M Q+ i* Ccities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
p$ W2 V; d) Q: Ctakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
( d3 y) g7 V$ E The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
: l6 g1 Y* j# i! fbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
( I( z4 O3 Y4 g; _benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
0 p* ?- @: ~/ Q4 R+ O; {including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard) P- z8 t. B" k6 ?! y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
6 ^% V5 @4 C* Y& b6 U6 fFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
" T7 J7 d0 v! S2 p9 {costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% h! o7 d7 [' k, F
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.4 m8 Z) [ j+ j! V* @
5 u# I5 W7 M$ k- |$ _
<<
7 |% q% l3 }0 k3 d! h5 h8 Y Highlights from across Canada:
3 Y7 ?2 @9 g( ?$ j% I" e' \% g9 |
; [( H0 G+ x! h$ a ]4 q4 L% v - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
* |; I% B- @4 h: k intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
. `' Y) o( S7 b3 T( G" e, o5 h home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
* j( R9 W9 r! G! H only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track: x; b& B2 ?5 D4 Y' m" I
since about the middle of 2007.5 P, F2 F$ s" Z K/ K2 @
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the. e3 C) e0 c8 Z4 R5 u8 W' H2 m% [. n
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ }" S; U. S# E# z" B# y decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still: I0 p' U; T& o& u# ^9 x6 o
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ B6 p8 g: F0 B4 y0 Z
poor affordability levels.; ^# I8 M3 K7 V/ ]) N
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& U- i1 h' q" b, w vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
; J+ `- }: _, b i& i$ K+ c! u2 q prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.. a; R; `6 Q! \" w6 q/ y' Z% B$ G
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to2 }5 h" \) G# t- _
minimize any downside risks.% q- F4 H% L/ B/ o( U! V
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
* L4 v9 u( z+ `$ c( S3 Y3 A$ I, j conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is! p+ d: {& I [7 ~" B
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
" m; X" T: \& a$ y g# a. c 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. G1 n* }8 W% F+ Z; V
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
2 n7 X# b |, U+ H - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in5 |) {8 d' p+ @) L% h
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
: H0 _# j9 ]3 ?/ ^2 c' \; T9 d far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
) a8 i, V L8 n/ H0 O7 B reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be: ~5 @6 P& F. O8 W# J) m* j8 [; a+ p0 b
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- s6 y! ]4 z, v4 P: X$ Q
modestly in recent years.
; F1 b2 l* p* m% P) n - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
" _/ i8 T9 c, W6 H general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot- ~# c; J" L( _# Z. G0 C+ t
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" S% ? B/ q( V8 J) u: |" c
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
6 ~! `0 h+ B1 Y; L following two years of deterioration.
4 z+ S; q. i4 P: z) k >> |
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