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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 i; D2 S- h" v8 f$ r0 `! j
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the8 r2 m7 R* h+ X j& y" S' ?
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive4 F! h: j8 @4 O* _) k; G' J
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
' k3 x7 _/ X; d0 t4 I/ J, D# N5 G$ |# waccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." h8 f* Q3 _. a* u" S
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
i% e" {: v. j }; Msaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# t5 ~1 A% s* D) }2 |( simproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability2 d- D) q0 `5 ] d
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."4 w$ ]! s: L# `: |; o1 z
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is: P$ T$ ]) V0 F3 r' J7 `" ^7 ~
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
8 V& t; x. k; v" c; Y1 uwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 H+ w1 q/ t8 y7 H8 _& wsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.6 U$ u; M; t0 T8 T! a6 y! B b
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the$ v! p; _7 W( W! y9 h0 p
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a A6 k' Z% C/ c' j9 M
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 c) G9 @6 l* V" i/ I
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
! g( A$ K: T& zstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
4 i1 @) [* A0 m9 {6 F7 H# Athe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
+ M- |' G0 }2 k7 }, v According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
& p5 Y5 X. J* O' @may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
% P* O r" D- J6 Z. y; nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at9 {; g* K# E/ V5 h" |
historically depressed levels.2 x, q. O% J2 \9 L
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
* d D% }! ]- w" f, k0 eof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
0 K1 g* k, W( v. J7 d" p f+ ^prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
$ L) w1 F4 l( u5 x7 u1 t0 J+ i& _) Lhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This+ @4 [ ~+ e$ s, J9 e( `
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
/ q1 ?0 _: {1 x3 r1 R1 ~months ahead," added Hogue.
' e2 e" u8 F5 M% T) c3 R' ^" d RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
. H8 q4 g9 [. D5 T2 o3 ycities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary# _6 l7 I- `. J- J9 P
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
4 R3 {& I$ B% `# j$ _ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for$ u7 b9 o' O3 t3 e6 T w, ^
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, @# i. F( [+ b( z. q9 q
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; b' F7 Q* t, Z6 Z; Z4 Gtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
+ J. p% F+ o9 }6 h+ @1 |4 V The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is2 Y/ j- o& H* Y
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property' X/ R& B# p/ J# ] m4 l) _
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented; M+ t9 k+ K$ z1 l. A& R) g
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard/ P: ?5 b( A3 P7 k$ |4 E& I& [
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.5 w) h* U `2 ~2 k
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
z9 a0 ~6 o2 A) pcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ F1 d* f0 k, H/ `; m
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.$ @9 m3 I$ c+ F( f
* E: B0 N1 T. f3 g/ s, I4 G2 I1 b& {
<<
1 \, o4 |: D4 M, }) K Highlights from across Canada:
- R& o8 k, ^( [+ W# |3 k
" P4 s' ]5 ?. Z - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has4 Q! [; o0 U/ {' L
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing' P7 ]7 {. W& L6 L# p( M9 d0 U
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound }3 K' }7 U& I3 l" M8 O
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track" ^ `4 [" z4 {: R& z7 ]; h
since about the middle of 2007.6 E0 X1 h1 J7 }9 U! W$ |+ L B
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the, G# Q7 q8 R5 ?
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
7 _6 Q( y4 v; [5 h; h) \ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still9 ]* s( _# m+ I
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
+ f6 ~0 A9 K5 `" G/ t1 x! F poor affordability levels.
! d/ m) e8 s( N! L$ { - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
' z. s8 F! J. R% |+ g" b vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 z7 z6 G |/ T4 d prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
9 C% B% S7 Z3 I' x Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to# l+ f+ S" Y$ K: c9 i
minimize any downside risks.
B2 z3 n6 {2 I. J& [0 Z) ]' _1 g - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( I: E8 O- w8 A8 I3 Z- i
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 n; y( l/ Y! `' j8 I unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
7 J7 D* M* O! o' t/ ?. c 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
. l5 d. |5 _5 y1 E5 o5 R being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
2 [7 m( s2 a- B - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
/ E0 q% J L ]4 q3 s+ \ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus& }& _, s$ [. f6 L/ k
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up8 G1 ? I- Y6 N
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be$ J% ~% ?, c% f# c! p" j
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
& N5 W* n+ T8 g1 P8 \ modestly in recent years.4 d% N1 G$ x. \( S& `0 j2 Z( Z
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the4 `+ O$ e. \, S" W$ o: Y1 i. ^- @
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot) ^$ X1 p* ^$ n" D0 ?
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ Y1 J* [8 l# o' Q) P& [4 M
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability: L" T o( Q# |
following two years of deterioration.
& v4 t7 p6 w8 h2 o7 N. o- w0 h >> |
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