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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
& r8 U5 e# b# O" m! p) z TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 b2 ?6 h+ v* T/ f6 a# a/ N- w7 ]
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* Q* B! z0 A7 W" {; z/ Egains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
' _0 r, t- @ o0 `. C3 Oaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.% _+ s3 `* Q2 k% }) |/ M& T4 ~
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 {" }2 Z" _& q6 @7 G0 n: j: w1 d
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is5 [$ C) A8 L( y3 R4 E _
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 U- `" a3 D; V/ `; K) zmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; Y' K) m0 v# g; y* K, ?) Y+ M RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
: j1 X' `/ `# x0 I2 k# [worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,4 {5 }+ N5 O4 h+ a
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
1 I4 ^: T" Q) r, p Lsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
2 F' ^ n( @/ G The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
+ {6 m- ?/ P: h$ H: U! l( S: zproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a8 V9 I/ k, m& Z
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.) W' X& G( `/ o$ N. J* C
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the! j" b! f; i$ |4 a6 j4 F
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and; y- F* I( c5 A8 J# F+ i" X* k8 u
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.9 M. m4 q) Q0 Z u
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets v# M# C; {( y: c
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in, j r: C( ]# @/ T% w7 E3 D/ Z
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
$ |# v4 x" M8 u" g9 J% W; \historically depressed levels.
; d2 G2 O9 K4 ~2 J Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
6 J' q a% y& R$ y. Cof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
c& c. n& L& F. w# @; }prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
- v9 {; h% L0 k2 \; s# b3 ohands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
. W9 S4 U' ^1 o- E$ V4 Yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
: u, k7 K# O( P4 n8 Hmonths ahead," added Hogue.
* B7 B, O9 U% o6 o$ B RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest- h, E& o4 m b9 `- l
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* R( e% {2 G0 m7 m3 C
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
! } I, k" m4 e m4 q The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for( l; y& H @5 { J% q2 ~( z
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these0 J6 v L$ c1 `! p0 [
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only: A& x& A4 ~, I8 b& ~0 ~
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. u5 b% \6 o+ T" F) M/ }& A. _# A The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is% v) R" y1 v' C" P. c
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
_( {8 d, `; }; c+ c4 Ubenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented! R6 l# b1 V# I8 G! a0 L& x
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 L/ b2 X- h! I* s$ t" F
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.6 t$ H( T9 G. h
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! L4 L, E) Q4 g: a9 H' `
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
1 v( G8 R- F3 i8 d' dper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.* y( |. w/ k% h0 V
" |# W7 f/ K; B a- u5 I; u
<<) z7 \: e$ f% F( `- F7 @4 f
Highlights from across Canada:
. Q: T6 v( x9 Y) h+ `6 j$ l y# r: a; Q( n0 i/ E8 ^
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 \; q- m2 {3 ]. E3 H5 B intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 W) T7 T6 E6 p. F9 _ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- S/ e* Y* ^6 e7 f) N! X7 T only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
+ j) }1 L8 z% A since about the middle of 2007.# |( z j' F; D, Z5 q
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the$ L4 J; j$ g) N
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to" u: @8 ~, ?( {% P
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still4 x. u/ U" E5 h- o* u# D
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ w- i/ y1 R% B. l. {" z! h8 J/ m poor affordability levels.4 S s8 a% f. H' `8 Y, ~& ?1 e
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
) Z7 n! ^# a7 R vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
( {% Q1 V/ \! z7 u prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
( c) p1 z* B% A# ?2 J0 ] Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
' ^8 L& `, S3 i. C minimize any downside risks.7 e/ t/ V" K3 q$ J* e0 l
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market+ v! Z" F& r0 a4 A* a
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is! {$ |! U1 ?2 H8 Q
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early) ^/ x e+ |- s2 D1 O: s( m4 ?
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' Z2 }1 e7 y0 b4 g0 P
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages., g& ~/ n- X. g9 D9 o
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
6 e/ r" g0 I2 b1 J+ z3 c9 q Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
) Y1 i2 }2 M5 t% d& z far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up# y6 f$ Y+ T1 _/ F
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be# C( g8 p7 n( v" r+ |: J- @
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only3 }/ y9 K8 I9 U7 v' e7 b( k- N+ H
modestly in recent years.
0 p# q7 T4 K. q! B6 w - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the$ m& x: \3 N+ |0 s e& l
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot& [' l& Y' {1 d
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. q3 G' q& j/ l9 o price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability# S; a/ q# V) Q, @' P$ D1 t2 j
following two years of deterioration.
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