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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC & z7 A" t x" P1 j, Q0 t* s6 Q
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' C# J- F& x+ Q3 E( G$ S z
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
# b1 t1 L- K1 {gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,8 f/ b" V A% j0 K& l! p
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: s# t1 {; N% E. P( q "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
+ g) W5 Z V1 f1 Y1 T7 E4 Y) M5 H! j: Gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# A7 r5 \& n% x5 \+ g! s Uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability$ o n$ c4 t( A
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# ^' i( A1 E! U: Z! z% F
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
( y+ C1 r5 x8 T! p Nworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,# I7 D. |* F! q* S- l
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
4 _; P5 e) j: l. W% h! D+ Zsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; S' u) ]; ^* e$ ~2 v9 X- ? The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 T2 H8 N1 y* cproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
$ d' F: \$ V% z' [" l1 w& H4 yhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.* |( ~& f! `7 S4 z1 E
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
|9 D$ ] N! }( Dstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and4 U7 ^2 a( z8 M7 C0 n1 E8 w9 \
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
7 H5 r) m a* a2 e* J2 O According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets6 k: a; K. c6 n) l
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
3 R$ P6 c' X2 x! v+ sthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
$ @: R, W0 }4 L% ]/ c3 ]& ihistorically depressed levels.
' n, q( S- Q" u8 j Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
+ p( U, g, V' b1 Q! f$ [of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House' E- }+ x1 T( v5 j5 m/ v
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the- S; K9 N" T3 |: r8 j+ H
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
2 F4 c; h; r$ P2 `enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the( @0 ?" d! p0 K
months ahead," added Hogue.8 v) R3 f: d8 F0 Z' T+ Y1 J/ _, }
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
4 j) m$ a; d# u) S" ` L/ a3 O9 ]& S7 hcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 N" l6 L' \; B
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
3 d+ _% X/ U1 Q; v# i9 i. i | The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% D# ]8 g6 E8 r. g) O! f8 @
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 F; L% w5 N) O9 g Y
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only$ i" Q0 k4 S4 n, U
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.0 P/ r1 S1 v5 _4 ]
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
( K7 L+ R6 F+ m& c9 Tbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
( I/ Q) ~) `# Z$ T3 J& |: Ibenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% H) C1 P. o2 cincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard* j9 r* ~; t, R8 _7 V
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
: U( @- l% ]+ lFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership" M# z. f, Q; N. w- q1 k1 E
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
# a A. t% K5 h/ W2 Aper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
, W1 Q1 t" [( c" [/ B! V7 y0 j* I" p9 z- Z( k. L
<<. |1 V' N7 S' W0 ?0 y4 W! K
Highlights from across Canada:
9 E/ k# x6 |. I2 X: D5 e4 e0 J9 }/ G5 b. L$ l
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
j* `1 ?1 b( W& }( D intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 B$ D3 q" ~) D/ j9 s8 }
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
7 a4 T8 B- ~, F; k$ R; ?0 N( w) W! M only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
0 l4 E" D2 y5 O$ j4 u2 S v since about the middle of 2007.
' [) b( E4 @6 [, c8 ]$ e7 G - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
& z6 l9 l: w( A @6 ~! } frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to- [2 i/ v5 J! h
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
( ^& I% ^( Y. A+ l, h largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. N$ x' g0 j$ }. G+ c B& w* s
poor affordability levels.
7 S2 d/ ~% e4 _/ ^5 H - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
* w2 [- o5 y7 K( W; C7 r$ e vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
8 D+ U( F& S* g ?. a7 y* R prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
% O& P1 V d/ i5 Z- x Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
3 ? G3 F6 b# {2 h minimize any downside risks.
' T+ T$ w( h* B - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( h0 c7 W% `, C% w- [: G4 q B' _' U
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is9 R1 c t' B( h5 k" ~; e
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
3 N5 `" Q/ }4 O 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly" A4 N+ k/ E: h0 v& y6 a3 e
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
* ~( Z" p2 p+ {: w( i! j - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in3 {" G# @/ h, P7 l5 D
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus5 g- H" }7 }% Z" M ]/ R3 [0 F
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
( e# L. o" N [+ |: f/ U6 W; l reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 f$ t9 K) {; N' n; g
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only R5 b1 [3 w+ U3 S/ _5 W
modestly in recent years.
+ y* F! H! f* [7 X+ P1 J5 o* l - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
p8 p; U3 T' H3 }6 m1 H% J" E general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot/ K1 d9 M% X, y% o7 `
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
8 j7 \3 U# C4 u8 ]% j3 Q price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
7 s, F5 l& v+ r1 {; t following two years of deterioration.
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