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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
% ? T) A( z y; m$ g. |& o TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
; ? d9 S) j) q' h( L0 w; umiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
u6 @ v+ Y+ N5 G ]' K0 Ugains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,0 f+ B0 P. S, }2 P$ Y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.1 G3 Q7 [( \5 _3 T& M1 L0 k3 G" {
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
. Q8 N4 L2 N# I5 }0 r1 Y4 vsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is# _1 r1 C7 r6 R* [) U/ B+ ?0 S; w
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability9 j( M7 L8 F, H9 ^. f5 `0 @1 [
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
# p# D" n9 g- e n0 a) P RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
7 g+ i0 P$ H) z r# c. e+ |" aworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
6 n0 z/ i i) ~. Swhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
$ h! L& A V* _& Q! Dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.! M2 a9 W+ G6 u# f" _4 z" q
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
6 j3 z0 a: ?! ^7 O# E4 |proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" n9 e: Z: ~4 j+ m6 x
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& H' M) U, j4 e* Q# K2 r" vAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 p8 _5 D2 G* ?4 O
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
: P) I/ [9 w$ Y$ A( R s f; mthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.4 {# ~+ L* a) M$ a. h$ e8 }
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets" o/ E6 w* Z& a9 [% I
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
5 s/ B3 k7 V! e. |, w+ `: f5 Athe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 k ~3 a/ B" h6 O4 ?; C5 y6 t
historically depressed levels. _, d. S# d3 R! D) o
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, X) [( f2 Z1 X% G. @/ k5 {! z
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House( i, H6 @' _9 Q( M' b6 [8 Z0 E
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the6 [' b4 A$ \0 S
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This7 n* b* p, b* [" j
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
0 J% J7 e% Q' L" _months ahead," added Hogue.- i$ E: ?4 {& J" ~
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest: i5 r4 T" h' L
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" P6 \. s# ~" Z5 {& Z% m `6 T
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
! T0 u2 I$ D" I7 O' A) Q The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
: b; W4 n, v @/ L2 S) F/ y pa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 o3 `: @: h" e0 [cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
: h& L7 r' V; ~, f) u, X8 ~takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
! K' R2 N6 a$ W) w n( I: n The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is. }# y- s0 G( \) v! n) q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; x4 o2 ?" ~% q Zbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented0 p7 Q& R1 D7 Q) e: f) I
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
% e( F) y* Z( Q8 m5 icondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
2 D: M) n! w( B9 X" ]. k# j6 YFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership3 |" l- d3 G/ f! v, P5 L
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50' l* A1 L+ Z* H* X* S" `9 V
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.6 ^5 B& F; @% h! T( R5 K
5 |' k/ p' i( f$ M+ X
<<! V& m; o& T3 _
Highlights from across Canada:
" k5 x8 w( k, I% T G' A9 x% z; u |" y) M7 [3 o; @) A
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
: E- D. f7 x( Z( x intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
& F# @, L( e5 B$ _ Q+ n% s4 c home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
. i# ]* A& S+ p' D* @0 _1 |6 ^ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 F( b6 ~/ G1 e) b" h/ h, w since about the middle of 2007.
+ A! T9 d l$ y8 G h$ n - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" f4 M) b6 K# U frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; `) J+ l2 ~$ p; e$ F' d( M decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
* n; ]0 i2 A' p+ w8 y largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely: m9 a+ M" _" a+ m% b. K
poor affordability levels.
& c( p* f: I6 u% } - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the( ~( A" o# V4 A# g$ `
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# Z" O1 S1 D+ A4 ]+ W b" l prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.+ | P; I$ j3 t$ W6 |% [
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to, f- h) [* \: Z" k0 |
minimize any downside risks.
8 ^. u( E: M8 M8 S, D" Q! M0 ^( F6 h2 b - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& a' Y5 n5 I+ d* m4 c |
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is$ d( A6 n: X4 S, b) n
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early- V) {& C; S8 k: ^
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' O( r1 {) t- A4 I being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.6 l, y" e/ g' }! g) e
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
. l% Y6 S4 X# z) f Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
9 l( J& q; d" D$ n far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. g4 e& S# I; n8 R4 z1 f. I reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be& W7 R q1 ^" J/ X
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only4 h4 {% d: l# p0 x
modestly in recent years. p( e9 T# ` Q/ A' M8 ~" X( N6 \) V
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
) y+ p! D: p2 P& I x general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot7 ? R5 u- o! p8 ~0 L5 k# W
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward1 b( s, ~& ]' M0 j$ y
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability2 Z! [ h" d0 }; R9 l8 i
following two years of deterioration.: u! `6 B8 d8 m# b3 L5 n! X, J
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