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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
8 \! P* h8 T* }; ]6 U, E, W TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
3 y: j$ U* ^7 z# `middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive+ t1 ?" O4 ?8 B) J3 S
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
4 [+ i% _ ^6 Z. V) Haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.2 i: X- Z c! u7 w3 \
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,", N4 `3 o8 x2 [6 N
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is1 h- g/ J. I: M/ u9 V
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability+ n \- S7 r0 L$ H- f9 H2 u# Q
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."1 e' Z2 a0 ?4 M+ `3 o
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is( l1 q {( ~, w1 R K5 \
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- X) d7 n6 `- U- }- V$ u
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
+ L3 P6 ]0 k; }! B6 ksustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.0 {: M( E, C7 _4 z9 T4 N
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the. h' h" l- C' X x" c, _7 T
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
6 X+ Y5 ]. r D2 Rhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ v4 S( d) b: N0 M7 ?( L
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
: N& p' N9 K; Y% `4 }8 L+ Pstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and! \ z; ], J$ v: o, W i: I
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
: ?& Q: ?! S+ n9 K, u# `+ t. R According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
3 B/ l/ q B0 Wmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
9 k+ K$ [; Y+ F* f% _/ b2 R5 r: v- qthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at9 `2 F& o4 S, {
historically depressed levels.
- e' S2 a/ V1 G) ]6 R, t6 W Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, K" E. W; v5 |5 u4 e
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
3 G! x! ^1 @5 e. Pprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the0 r% J4 t8 b C' M% b
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 ~1 ?: N' y* F7 Henormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
9 ~, X0 M B+ ~- ]months ahead," added Hogue. g5 Y \% \/ W1 t" g, `4 j
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest/ b! X w1 O; x' u
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary; g& d) q' L* Q2 V+ c8 m# x4 |, [
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.& {' E( L( I/ u; I2 f
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
7 ` D9 Y8 w& |) za broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 O) C0 f$ T( `/ wcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
$ W$ p7 D, J( J0 htakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
3 i5 F' P, c" M. b/ I H/ A0 ? The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
( e0 m* W1 F- d- g/ K, E1 ]4 Lbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property, h+ Q! V; q( M9 V# m# r7 y, r2 C% S
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
1 o$ q- \) M; r* Lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard0 `, B0 k) k' p% n8 V
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.& z/ |/ |& @! U; T& ]* X' @
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
. a M' C1 N1 ]% s* hcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 E7 [5 K! P% B" l: ^) f
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 s3 s7 M \4 s' l
" k: C# Q" ^5 n# K5 V0 _ t <<
- P# q8 ]( ~" R% b Highlights from across Canada:+ J6 q$ p* e+ a
$ h9 J+ h- e3 r! l+ F. h! c - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has7 R/ i( m5 l: t3 z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing9 y$ T4 [5 i# A( n3 P1 [: z7 @
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound T' m+ `7 W; k& Q$ h- R+ w! f6 Q
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
H" z8 M- w7 R% m2 n7 R( j0 C since about the middle of 2007.) z$ y3 I, X% n6 M0 w3 \% W
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
8 y. e: r9 c8 T* i5 F% F frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to: t! @5 q2 Z1 I: {) T* ]* A/ ?
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) E- K+ i ^; m+ {8 q largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
- |; K" O4 Y- F poor affordability levels.% N0 N- r: j+ W
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the% B& ^7 v/ |6 x. N. r* r# v! X
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and- Y: L, S4 _. Y1 ]
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' a: t: C6 G* h5 ~ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
; R* l0 t5 \/ k/ M0 P7 S minimize any downside risks.' ?' ?) g1 K/ m7 j+ F$ \
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
6 _* K; S8 u# ~! q. B- R0 A1 j conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is, {7 N6 T& d A/ i, D: @
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early) p r. Y* v2 H0 |+ x0 p3 t
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
- U, [% t( F8 R/ L8 w' E; q" G0 j8 c2 B being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.1 |+ }# W3 H. D" e
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in3 z9 [) L0 t- x9 z: a5 o3 W9 j
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
1 L1 a) O$ P i4 B far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, Q+ m! M8 c. k* H+ I; e% Q( \ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
9 V+ s8 _6 p1 o% |0 ^ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 f, U3 Q4 T$ u2 [' \0 M; W modestly in recent years.
9 Z s. M5 h# f9 b/ E( v - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 b& ]/ h& n1 K3 v! O
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot* K) R7 _7 p+ P5 u: {! A
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward2 F' O5 E! o5 f) k- G. j
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability' w4 }8 A! ~3 I+ @5 ^4 Y
following two years of deterioration.
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