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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
1 g. m2 K) o6 l% @: M: v2 o TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
6 y3 N3 ?: u* @2 v( {6 P* r% ymiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
1 X/ G0 Z. I0 U; g' Qgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
/ E2 v; G+ w2 u6 A' a, ?8 ~1 Baccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.* E% K. r, o O% }# o$ j
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 r$ o% `! d c/ P$ d
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is: h2 b( {0 U% z7 F1 N
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
8 e5 i. Q: e( Dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
8 q# x; G o0 O' l( s RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 B$ e3 i9 l, Y
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,# T6 e& r8 `. D" [: C
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
$ Y7 d& V9 c" x/ ^; w8 O$ Zsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.- l$ l3 {# ^; d3 A1 m5 u9 N
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 i! [0 k \! z4 t v6 R, uproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a6 ?1 y: \3 o. t! i
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& \" Y4 c# ^2 j: c( @* kAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the' d; ]+ Y. |+ n7 g b# y1 I8 K
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
; T. a9 z4 V: d2 n4 |) y" X2 qthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
) _3 N" U0 W% C V According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets1 p/ s' L3 X4 Q: m
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
0 v6 z; y+ L" [! a8 @the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at1 ^5 c8 Z5 s5 b3 q! R- H
historically depressed levels. C( M9 d1 m L% i$ x* w+ C
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
; [8 i- o! [9 {+ f( `2 D( kof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; d) a$ h: C9 K8 Z0 O" Eprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
6 t+ y; ^3 q7 g# x4 f+ E4 s$ L( h; Zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This' v0 H) b+ Y; C& j
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the# Q6 s) V0 F. j7 D- v Z9 q
months ahead," added Hogue.
! s0 t5 A: F# v RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
' z5 W W% g/ ^' d2 N) ocities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary5 }7 Z! w: m/ y$ l1 C# M" f
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.: C/ z3 d( g5 i2 J+ \& d
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
6 \# y! P. p$ Q. Ta broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: r' x, I6 z8 n( @cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only0 f) b/ W/ d4 T! @9 j
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account." C# V6 h0 B% R# W+ K! [+ m+ Y0 K
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
# u- t: ~8 |/ {based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property% E7 x& U' l0 J2 R& k6 P
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
$ k- G' P6 w" j6 ~/ L' X1 X4 lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard/ k' m2 f' S0 E: E8 h
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.4 ?7 Q0 F/ L7 Z2 T3 N! h
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
. }( u7 T. W( g# h* ?$ ncosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50" a9 H- v3 L' A2 i. F: q; M* w5 V
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
9 E. w3 S. q6 [: q6 F( T6 q! a1 M6 z4 N
<<7 j$ O+ G4 v2 f" q( a9 q
Highlights from across Canada:
, h5 }! e; P( o$ \0 g! J) \. E8 F m4 G4 B J9 q* a; [% I
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has8 I, k( `" ?% n i$ Z0 l
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing/ p! f9 z/ a! Y' t9 F( T
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
" L) I$ k! x& Z only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track Z; V7 |. k' U$ E! j' q8 h4 I
since about the middle of 2007., O' s( a# y9 H, v3 R1 W, O% x! E
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the) N* r6 K( A3 w# i7 x, f
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
' Q% v4 j" k- z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 x8 w9 P2 w7 a. [) P
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 A% c1 P/ s) F6 ^7 i
poor affordability levels.
5 t8 @2 Q( s9 S6 a. _3 e - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the% ?& o" N9 S A" C! U! u- |
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: k8 O9 q5 p+ d! Y prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.$ ~* a. U$ o' o5 p/ O
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
, Q/ x9 R$ ^$ p* i( w# Y5 u% ` minimize any downside risks.( o- {7 o0 o0 L4 c3 R5 U% p
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
3 e$ P# y3 w) h Q- O, K( p# T conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is# m+ V) s5 ]3 N! |. L
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early! t% E- E$ \3 c2 p8 S6 S
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
6 U/ p! U( _5 ?$ l% t being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.8 l; L4 }: H' Z+ R0 }- P( o$ B
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in1 u" q" Z- |" p, }3 U; L
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
4 A; U) k, g+ {1 ?+ ^( Y# j+ g( l far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up8 n/ h* n- ~; j) O z8 u
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# q/ m& a$ D; L0 L! t1 Q! Q! C ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
2 I8 k+ p, H( v* b modestly in recent years.( o% w7 n8 N. R8 R8 e7 i0 H
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the$ v! D' I3 R3 G
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
8 X9 ?# h8 Z' |- N5 x spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
* u4 a5 l. f e1 Z7 E# k price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
3 m" I" z0 [/ E7 M) [( X0 r* v following two years of deterioration.# f9 h4 e' g7 Z3 ^' J5 B& ]$ H/ N/ N
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