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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( I* e# n. w' u TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 ~1 I. n. I& J. ^
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
9 f( b# d0 g1 ^0 fgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,# u5 Z. V9 M. c' S2 H
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
; K1 g" M. f& c# n "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
$ a6 u; U+ D! q+ isaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is X, T- }& M/ n9 ]
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
/ M9 n- M! j8 X7 J+ vmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
1 @ }2 P$ _9 @* g RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' N# h2 i* y5 c- Z
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% {- s) |' ^: M( M! E$ _- ~. hwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have( ^1 k q4 [& }! N( Z
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
& f' w8 u3 K% C The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
' v- J6 [! T0 c1 J8 k* iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a$ A# h) u3 D+ M m6 K
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( a, M" |- U9 M' V
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the) @( w: F! N( d; F; D
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 L* c6 R: i% N: x0 Q& ^4 pthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. o. v. ~" Z& Q m2 y0 v) C" W, |7 M
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets' O: Y; u0 {2 X$ k9 c: W: c
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in. l6 r. o- o( T; {6 Z4 g
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
# w$ s3 V h; l8 _$ r0 [. thistorically depressed levels.' b; P6 P0 c$ e# L4 m: |
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost) r9 P4 b7 ?/ _# a! b9 ]
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; f' d1 Y: T1 U" A$ _5 `prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the$ K2 n" A; ~3 H" c3 b8 h0 I
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
. z: b+ N2 J' E! Senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
& I0 A$ H3 s- a6 q# B6 bmonths ahead," added Hogue.% N- D" F# x" \
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 o! M& c( q% F" ~9 @
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary! y5 S- V7 v3 Q: q* \
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.( v4 A/ X7 G5 l+ I8 m
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
& C2 B7 r$ l. [* F/ Oa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
# |; K2 U2 J) e" J' e7 Icities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
* Y- i5 u j5 Wtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.- ?3 S4 v8 s5 X+ f( u( J$ c
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
: _2 X7 y; ]1 F2 |# Dbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
9 k* }3 n$ J# N6 L. J% c- ebenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
: o" m* W0 B& V2 p! lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
: E# G' ~& e# M/ t3 k; Kcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.+ g5 `( W9 k0 G E
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
! y: F% h; {% Q& Y9 _- L+ lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 M" d6 i2 _* |5 ~* o8 }
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
" U0 J8 e: l2 n/ l5 q- I# T. X: ^+ z; C _
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3 \) J7 j' p" Z: L Highlights from across Canada:
3 V. Z9 V8 ]& A2 q# o+ n1 P8 \- A+ _2 c" Q1 I1 }5 R
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
. f. O# q T# [6 v z intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
& P% f' `! q- o$ N home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound# ^* ~, Z/ T0 t! @4 t
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track4 \1 W. ]/ n- }$ r& C4 S
since about the middle of 2007.
; z" p8 q; u8 l& A - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the4 F* t. K/ X- H
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
1 b5 Y2 K* U. i$ q7 n9 ] decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still( U- y. ^9 j0 ^) \
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely3 K& G; U/ T0 F2 [
poor affordability levels.
5 ]7 h, h" ~8 y; k. q - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 J ~: j+ x7 h, O r vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and+ |3 w0 i+ D, ^ Q* _7 W9 Q
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
7 w& c/ s3 ~- r/ Z# m, Z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ E4 f- }7 u4 p1 [0 \; b
minimize any downside risks.
) y5 l1 i5 Q9 _( H6 e8 n - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market5 Z4 @- M/ \$ b2 Y1 P; T
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is P; I3 Q6 s+ V* \
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 o9 S! f0 f9 ~2 F' B6 K
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ _2 z% ?$ [5 t+ G: d7 A being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
g! ^7 _# c8 z% c3 d; a4 _ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
+ _& [' d3 n7 q& o9 o+ v Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus% W8 G' I0 O5 ~# Z& E3 }" f( }, Z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up9 n* X9 A, E6 T. I9 v
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
7 y, y& t* c5 E+ P ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
) K8 \: C w: i7 v modestly in recent years.
# H2 [6 r* n0 T6 F - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
6 u- N* @6 r# x& {+ }8 }4 C general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
- T3 r/ S; ~: x spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
' b# E; P; `9 Z, H: Z price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability2 Z2 k2 a7 a' Q. d1 g9 q' ^7 x
following two years of deterioration.
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