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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 r0 U' L3 }+ K2 L1 m* C8 ~ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the! k7 m0 z$ |" b+ Q7 d- v( b
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! T7 e8 J3 m$ N- O
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
' j7 @- P+ ^& W" W0 i+ uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.9 y1 a6 M! ~4 L' ^
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"4 m! ]4 ?' [/ g5 A! K
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is1 h: w3 K' b) s$ t- J
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
G! d6 C8 p4 w# G! ~* h/ F, |3 H- lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
' a; w# o3 R3 l! C0 k5 n* \ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
& _- t; E% s# H* Y% z& s4 [" ?worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
( J! ~1 f) ]6 Twhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have: T: v# I8 c6 g7 U+ D) I0 y9 l
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.! \. C& G# p" d) m
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
# l0 [6 v6 g) W0 L& wproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a, Q* c8 S# ^. v: {) j
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.. o- N' ]" P/ ^. r6 |" X" Q' r
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
3 s3 q# E! e, d3 P+ {standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
3 C7 V- l N, u# o2 h7 \" {the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
2 G9 ^, `4 ?% _- p E/ n) q' k z: f According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets- l4 ?1 j5 V, ^6 j2 t8 q4 o
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in# f5 T# E2 Z1 v2 H
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at8 o5 f! z# f, j3 W: g
historically depressed levels.
8 |" {9 `- T) C% |; F Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
; Q( A2 S' F2 B, X3 B5 J( vof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
9 L- W" s9 Y0 X- {' y9 vprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, [, o* s$ ?/ P, k
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& s6 R% l7 T8 t# g# i7 h% [( Z) U5 Tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the9 @) K h3 z, t9 r
months ahead," added Hogue.
& o: D3 q- E& D4 L5 k: [6 @ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
8 o/ L1 {- Y# G$ W$ X: r2 rcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary1 @6 v* Z1 K+ R; @9 w$ h, f
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 v4 F/ k8 @' d, k
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for! Y# Z3 E5 K, F; y" P
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these/ o* r5 H5 J: ~$ b; E
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
5 K8 E; L8 n4 ?/ p! J6 Mtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
; x# N( v% x( I5 @ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is; i# R& M* g4 a
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
. L- F9 s) x/ Z9 |! g3 lbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented. Y/ u7 C2 A8 S$ o+ M
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
: q9 c5 w1 _7 f: Y" _ j! tcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
- X W8 ^. K2 r+ U: B6 @1 Z& sFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
: ?( X' D0 S j0 B& N6 N) i: ucosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
+ D5 a6 D3 R1 ]2 `: h8 w. A2 U' Dper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ x$ b$ D" p L& x; G9 v" X! U! N0 u( e) Y
<<& {0 H/ r3 s5 `
Highlights from across Canada:
7 T O& ~/ t( w- ]# K# r1 m& q1 a$ p& Z, u5 s3 c
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has# l: }: J6 Z2 `/ \% {4 b
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing: z9 i l) n* t5 r% W2 H
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
' W0 _5 g4 z$ c8 h5 X& q- ^6 m only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 ]% h4 ^+ [9 A+ c4 r1 s since about the middle of 2007.
* E* i6 B8 ^0 s* ` - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the( ]" d; |3 d h# v! H' Y
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
- O$ O) o6 s6 Z4 i9 ?# N decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still' l" p2 M' d9 r9 u1 a4 ~
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely0 ^6 `5 [9 L) i* [5 l- z8 j, @* Y
poor affordability levels., A9 k+ L0 K# i7 T/ [
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the/ O& q4 I0 Y0 J& @- [
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and. W% X1 z7 ?8 A; M) N+ I
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' B: p3 B) `! T4 _* a+ D( X Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to( b! t5 g! f8 E, ~
minimize any downside risks.
3 D0 n/ w6 d: }6 k - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
' E0 p# T; F- l! I3 s# e conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. R \9 ?6 B' Z: N) T5 D" P1 I unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
7 a5 A* B' S" m0 N* H' C2 i 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly: x! a# m9 A' S: c& Q
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.; b% Z1 o! r/ H, ]
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in, A* U5 v1 Z& C! ?
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
8 t( d% ]4 M0 I3 \5 t: f+ U far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
& p- M% M/ g K" Q9 u reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be- V$ t$ K/ O' z5 q
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only+ V1 M7 O% {: \3 v% _; S# J4 n4 T
modestly in recent years.
/ [' J& Y$ s- m. U - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ N) d z( { A7 g5 a$ g3 R
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot# T, y% e/ E: N d3 }0 W0 W# I
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
2 D9 ?) q$ e# E4 ? price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
3 C" ^* e5 o' @! s- |4 N) A: ] following two years of deterioration.+ P- N% F8 c$ j" r+ a% D' A% t
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