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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( V- [5 ~' v. n0 w3 \ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
e5 K4 n) I8 o+ P. t* smiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
' e5 V9 C* R" _ lgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( L1 w# M+ ], X" p r" R
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.( Z ^( L: v0 A
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"7 e$ v: C$ x# R2 F
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
$ I8 K; H3 s/ mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
7 l! D$ b. C: L5 R- ?0 K9 Cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 r$ S4 J, o, b4 H0 x
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is! I8 B9 d( D" B5 l& j
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing, |9 f" V3 R ~
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 |4 y9 D% d0 _1 A% a8 i6 |
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.) m4 p5 k7 Z, u3 G" Q
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 r4 K& {5 x3 r: A. F
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a5 j6 c& z. M" i k
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.# s# S& O/ i7 w- Y2 @% U( S$ K$ ]
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the+ ^) a) \3 h' g1 I) G. t
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
* E5 |* ]% f- X8 J( v7 n T) g7 gthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.% \7 T4 D0 k6 \: o
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets5 E* ^9 w( M# J4 p/ Q7 Y
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
K( C' W! h6 t+ rthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
+ |8 F' U( `+ Z( g* Mhistorically depressed levels." q2 \: r" v+ E8 u1 r; I
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
+ e) K5 H, U. s$ ^# `of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House1 `9 _ y( c* T& I8 d: j& H
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
- q$ f/ l- P& v Z: I! Whands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This: R6 x1 A J2 b
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the- ]6 v% ?5 {/ e' j4 P' H x
months ahead," added Hogue.2 {: C& w8 z/ V8 \8 s
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; C2 b& p5 M4 D0 R% I6 h: gcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary! Y8 a- i1 w' @: W$ L9 @6 K
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.) A7 d" T: D+ [* u
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
. |) Z/ N, ]! f3 U: W8 x+ ma broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 x. _3 \! w% @; `0 A. J2 J( I+ \cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only/ z4 `& L7 g$ J! I) z
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) R# ?3 X7 t' B- w The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
4 j$ K: r& C1 Q( J) ?based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
& K0 l2 L' N' mbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented4 b$ E. ^# a6 R$ G! A
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 W R' w7 s0 J$ Z: _8 ]3 Dcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
% S/ ^2 G* M Y5 R4 F- K2 AFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! \) h' e! C( ]2 F# ~
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50( T" C0 v; T5 Y% Q, I2 a8 B
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.& Y$ n8 A1 I* d: j/ j
) ], Y! p) {- K" u" K2 V9 D <<0 Z: \- |3 a {& f" h' _
Highlights from across Canada:: X# h# c P( w2 m0 L& y6 `0 L2 p
1 K0 I7 a1 S! a2 V' y* D - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
2 B% T/ K* `4 ~/ y- p& L( h intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( `( c2 a( B& A* T4 j0 Z
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
+ ^, V% Z/ f0 _, U1 i& |: K& C only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track5 v+ c- t6 ~4 `" R1 z
since about the middle of 2007.5 D' F0 I; G2 B8 G x( ?. t' D
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
8 h% ~# ~: c" F' U; p6 d frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ c$ F# `. R' b0 ^3 [ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
`' N9 {. B0 t8 y largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely- `% W0 L2 x; s3 e
poor affordability levels.1 h, F4 t. s+ p, a
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the% V/ x: P4 ]' K' f7 ^* O" z
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and2 S( N' k* P- n
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
9 T( ^, n ^2 R7 R, ~" a Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
# k# J$ n& E2 {/ k) V minimize any downside risks.# T" m' B' Q5 L2 D0 h8 Z
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market" }) u5 R6 A/ O! D
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is0 T( y5 i1 O: z# r9 k6 m
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, }) N% I+ u* A8 J% ^* s
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
) \( J/ i ?4 ?) F2 h. D' Q: n being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 k6 Y$ G2 H0 z' P6 e& F' l1 L- M
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
/ t8 D8 I0 q3 Z n9 ?; r9 m. i Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
! ~& C8 }0 o7 r0 P far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 l4 A& q2 s% U" T
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# Z5 N! \. F$ ?, i; S2 [ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only3 J( |. L5 R2 c, Q/ [3 p
modestly in recent years.
" w) O) i5 Z% ^3 {: V - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
) x. Z+ e: i H3 J9 r \3 M1 w general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
, y6 i0 _, J( `! K9 L; j' c% a spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward( \: ~( t* | F7 s0 L$ B
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability) u+ r3 z" O( [0 @! K
following two years of deterioration.) c: Q7 T9 S1 Y1 I
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