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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 1 c1 {) E! ~3 k3 J; z( w6 D2 Y) @
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 o- h' P, a' J5 b: r
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# |3 J) |8 g6 a0 L7 o. a0 F: m
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* N7 h& S# ~' n5 c, Kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 a. T" Y- y( {( H+ j "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& Z2 i- ~% B) S, usaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is/ T7 i% ^2 ^$ r
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
' J0 E! o* `; H+ @4 T. [' \( v' c: o* r& Ameasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 \& @$ ]* ^ W; @/ q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
1 L5 s$ Y, P* M& e0 Zworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,( z( t# S+ C$ F; f2 p% X; N
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
7 X! S9 Y. X$ ]7 I/ |sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
, u9 \6 t. `# O [ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
- D8 d; N5 c6 l8 ^: j2 Iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 ]; L" i( u8 S6 ~- l0 u& ]" Nhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.4 p9 ]. _! O8 C: `2 ^# g. R
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the4 n( P) V) r5 I' N9 Y- y
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 `% _$ C+ s8 N. T
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. {5 G n/ Q3 Y; I" S7 M According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets n7 n# h* `$ J. H' ]6 h0 r5 P
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in G1 X- R3 t* `. a. f
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
7 m m( f: N6 n+ l5 P" Ghistorically depressed levels." D( E, o: _* n3 |$ r
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
. W5 M3 E& S9 o' R0 s' _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
9 {0 v3 ^0 m5 Qprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the; z7 U9 n$ a& Z& a7 k5 u! _3 d
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
; F* u, @5 p. `% o3 n4 Venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the8 i3 x$ W" M# W/ ?0 d1 E5 W* {" v4 A
months ahead," added Hogue.9 k5 L/ I! e( `1 w0 Z/ o! o
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, S6 Q; C2 n3 W8 v' F2 t! |+ Wcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary5 v0 d$ o* Z, @2 ]% j" R
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
" X- b, ?; I# |7 x# A: K/ w The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
, Q) ^& D+ C5 G0 _" Ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& r! Z7 ], I4 Wcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
! j9 S9 K o2 \# N j$ Qtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
! a2 E' O- T' S8 r# `# s7 n7 k The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
/ I3 ^$ \7 i* b% T0 y% d" Q" w7 V7 wbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property! E S9 W" o5 b6 X& Y' O4 i
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
, `9 j- _7 s7 oincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 q3 E' H" n% D1 ]. ^4 E8 n
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
9 d9 C: h. w3 S. l" N3 `8 }For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
1 D4 T' X! M+ N" u9 m {8 Ucosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
0 s" }; `. e" Z0 [1 W5 Q% X* ?8 eper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
$ `6 x$ m( l) P6 I0 t
' r0 s6 D9 |* v' S$ B4 P" \ <<! W) Q- {) |1 F" X- L
Highlights from across Canada:
; b# a) Q; ~ L2 _, Y8 i
& c' {) H- v7 P2 C$ E$ D0 z - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has. A5 `# J* r, J
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 }; q a: [( c% X' a6 M home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound4 ~) _+ [ q. I8 S. F' t
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
" ~- \) V- a0 ^+ `2 i, F since about the middle of 2007.
% f3 [+ F- F8 g# { - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
6 m4 N) O3 u: A6 m7 f9 } frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
8 M" Y6 n2 T# z [ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, l, S0 D% x" H
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely3 b- l3 o& S+ {9 p" } ~& L" k
poor affordability levels.9 M+ }. Q N, V1 l, `- h' J
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. |: e7 A; t5 ~5 Z vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
& R' f+ T$ H0 y prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 y7 ?/ ]0 a& X- a2 D/ X Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
/ D4 ]2 ~! M$ l) ^$ z minimize any downside risks. [' o% h% E2 s$ E0 E5 W
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market4 P5 _) ]+ z- f, y8 ]1 W5 f$ z
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is- n p% d9 s" T
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early0 J/ k- Y, J. e9 o& S' w9 v
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
9 M; y2 G$ \! n x# M) \4 R g being restored to levels closer to long-term averages., t' J; H4 h1 t$ A7 S5 R6 M
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# g B8 |+ i( a4 `3 ]2 j Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
0 N. A$ i$ S f3 v0 |% `5 r far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up: V O( q# B ^; K* C. o2 \
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be. j( G4 a% y# w
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 i# S2 W2 g5 t0 |& V/ ]: @ m
modestly in recent years.
/ x+ N* y4 I/ b/ n - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
4 n# @6 c' Z& W; e; c1 R" D general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot9 J1 z* M* y! ]
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
" I* t+ q. @0 Z) E. \3 t. k) V price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability& k: Z$ _3 f h" F5 k0 E1 l
following two years of deterioration.
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