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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 9 E m0 i" x- `- M+ s6 G
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
# v' M7 S! t1 q* Q; Emiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! ^- O$ n4 K# g1 ^3 ~+ \
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
/ ^) l* R/ Y3 D9 _according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.+ n j6 x% m0 Q* Q6 M; B( `
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
$ G0 E& _; U. v9 n: ^. \8 @" ~said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is7 S* }; u7 E! r3 t9 K
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
/ M# W0 s# J. O& E. a' L U( w& Tmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."4 L* } r" ^/ g+ \6 S; X/ Y
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* y4 y' p. R# h- c% m- Hworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
e4 D1 P* w8 N3 P7 [7 d7 pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have/ `6 U. h: |$ u7 D0 M( }6 x
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.; f8 m, j4 T" }
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
$ J- o! H" b( R$ W5 k+ X9 jproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
( J8 O' Y& i$ m! _0 M/ n, xhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.7 Y* W# f; h+ n) j9 [
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
8 o3 P. I1 O: B1 z+ lstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and" l; b L9 i5 C" A, G' n v' `2 C
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.4 B2 y9 Y0 B! C8 @
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
. d/ I, z( r6 Y3 V6 S# Vmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 o' F0 p& c+ b6 d2 j% G& h
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at5 {1 M4 `# x2 G0 x
historically depressed levels.9 |+ {" X( ?4 k3 p" [- Q8 X% Y, P7 V
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 a X4 E$ M1 r' J" W& V9 zof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House f9 o8 _ ^3 ]4 X. l! {2 h
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the c+ e9 u) B: F% p8 M. a' |. V3 F
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
j% y1 D5 e$ @) j0 C0 M7 Penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% b. i: ]3 T" [$ s7 Q+ m# _! c
months ahead," added Hogue.
' `, B* `; G7 H/ f0 u0 V RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
/ X. e! t4 H9 c7 ~9 z2 E. Ccities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary3 C4 |( R' y; y# s3 ?
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
Y: w1 A {9 C' s1 ~2 W1 W The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for) y( T: y1 G6 q- i
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' b/ P2 }0 o& M+ z, c+ q! H
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 p1 j4 X0 h/ Xtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.( h4 d( b* [) }/ k( o5 D7 i
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
* L4 D" p1 H2 F2 A2 M3 ^3 I, z# Ybased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 {3 c1 ?/ r$ W }: ?) V; D4 P7 @benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* F- A* D& P5 ^. E7 m) R9 i3 N
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard+ @2 y+ T0 d. S- H; b
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.! l& N0 j1 j: z; f( D8 @
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership, b$ X( T9 L/ ^' l" a
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
' x" S6 p" Q9 O, u' C7 m6 V2 t- Tper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
: t% B' l' r, O3 t$ \) B6 K. C# R0 S' h
<<
! W* s0 ?$ h8 s& e. I5 } Highlights from across Canada:. I4 M* @4 v! \1 c" q l
4 N+ B9 O N( U$ }% \
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
3 @+ X' G2 G# \+ m7 B/ a# I* Y' b# B intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
7 {$ d# q: h. b. O6 | home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: T8 b7 H+ L, B+ v x- c0 |
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: J) S8 ^+ h, q. z" [" B0 P" e since about the middle of 2007.
) `* u! Z: U1 h5 i5 q L6 j: T - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the1 v# H9 x/ _3 Y+ v6 }8 h, D
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
0 z* t3 h7 E6 Z+ f' G' y3 N decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still" M; ^4 P- j% P: _. F- n8 Y; X
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( R/ Q& ^+ @8 z8 x$ H poor affordability levels.9 a! l, _5 R) t
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. P* ~ Y! f& M- Y8 @8 Z vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
8 K7 j. Z& C# l& Y$ w. r prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.7 n+ [" S& H2 `7 ^2 j
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to# B! y* n3 `: N' m5 L
minimize any downside risks.
$ s& `% S; B7 } - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
( ]; a5 M K, G conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
" t, c( z3 N/ F6 k9 z k1 p3 d2 k unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early m# I+ F& P* R2 w- [( ?. n
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
O! n% s* C" X% S& _5 J' f) M+ V3 r being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
. S) d: X" Q. q8 Q; G7 ]( I - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in; ]4 s7 \4 k/ N1 G
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! U. U; L9 j8 }& @+ {' k6 R
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
* G; |, U G9 J6 K reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
I3 B5 U9 U1 h0 ?2 l/ Y9 Q ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
4 {- M( ]) D- Z2 n. L; I& e modestly in recent years.1 E- L2 F' j8 M9 W
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ x6 V) y$ ?) |5 h) B9 ~ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot5 j% c) i- v) p* p. J1 p& v
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward7 N1 i# S: `# c Z2 x! s9 w( P
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability1 x1 w! x2 m- i9 u! ^2 R2 C
following two years of deterioration.
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