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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC / p+ i& p) J* J
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
/ @7 `$ e. v: g. c7 W* T; bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
: }0 H! Z: }& ?$ l/ W) q2 T( lgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,& d' H3 u( X8 E+ v& m
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
1 x* \8 k# L( r4 w0 Y7 u% ~8 S% N "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
! P i9 @) V+ W1 bsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
: g ~3 g H5 [7 p" ]% y/ \$ `improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
/ ^4 C4 U1 Q5 L. q9 Q dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
. g+ h e' P& k( A, r( j4 M) k/ S RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
. L+ f3 L- }3 Y! L7 U+ }worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
- {6 v# c! i8 m: X+ Awhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
8 a3 f8 o1 q' d9 l" J0 i$ esustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
( \) {% s1 u- ?8 Z: Q4 g The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
5 _! u) u" }' rproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a+ c& s) z3 j+ w! w* q" ~$ t
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 }" k# S! f/ z5 R; GAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the9 ~0 q. l6 O3 V0 m; [. D6 t& l* @; J
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
: k: W3 D. \, ~2 c( H0 D e% Vthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. V9 J) Z" B- g! w; F1 S9 e% ] According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets+ a- ~# W. X/ G1 ^! g1 Q' g
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
9 H# Z& Y! T$ a8 T! `the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) c7 Q5 q! s5 V3 R
historically depressed levels.. Y% Q7 U6 ?- Q( y7 Y
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ k* N$ g3 r- k B6 U jof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
! Y( I9 _; h! B) a4 t5 @" Tprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the) @6 @/ ^+ m7 o$ O: Y, @4 x4 ?
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) v; b, H" ?' E3 z. e8 Penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
( Q& D5 R: a( h2 y0 M5 o+ umonths ahead," added Hogue.# e2 p7 h# n( h
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest7 h, ]) G6 s( O2 G
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% i* P) z4 s% J. A/ k. }4 t# [
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.% f/ c& |) h$ e1 S. z; ~
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
# [4 |( i8 B% F' wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
7 r' o1 o8 U; E* P* \& zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only! H7 ~- R$ ~5 z9 H) k
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.) `6 g9 v2 \. q
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is) G! L# a. o' G
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property( S8 U* o4 Y3 ]; M6 i
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
( A" G3 D8 C1 J& uincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard& v% X; @' P; I G0 e
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. y M9 U0 v. k& D9 c
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
* v l, v/ Y0 O3 f% M2 `( Acosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% {0 `0 f* L/ z
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.; t9 X& y' N4 x) H- s5 \$ n- v4 L
J3 [" P/ \& U/ `3 l! R
<<( M: t% I2 W* X3 R7 e$ ?% v4 |
Highlights from across Canada:! b2 `. a/ ^1 K% _7 Y: B
* Z/ r. l5 p) T3 G+ X5 }! h: @ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
: T3 W7 M" O! a2 ?3 N4 t; G intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing, }+ p! L9 u m% _! T b
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
9 Q4 g0 c/ p5 ? only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track, h$ Y9 Z' K4 s P& A
since about the middle of 2007.
7 |& `9 P6 b* }$ n; k3 O - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* m$ {/ n% x3 b* S# b
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to* ~9 _+ b \6 U4 V7 P2 m
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 U6 e+ s7 _" m/ f largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely/ P6 h. V8 D" a' g7 e9 C4 N1 C* k( w c
poor affordability levels.
+ T" |, j# K. ?! o7 @- o - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the! C) {0 m6 H2 v0 l% \/ {
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 Q3 A+ M( Z! h0 L prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; g# z0 k5 v8 [' D Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 O, Q- w2 B6 a
minimize any downside risks.
7 s, _. ~' f {: o% i9 q - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. k, t+ v. @/ x
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ }3 i* V* D, _! ?
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ w' B0 t$ T& Y( z
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ y) i4 F9 |+ I, X# X) ?5 T4 N being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.. K9 \$ E, ?% A, E
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% U, D7 O8 w9 [1 t* \
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus2 n$ \0 B" c9 ~" |0 J
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
( e( W; i( U) _ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
$ U1 x. r: o8 r. s$ ] ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
+ ?- b% h+ N' ~$ u+ ~ modestly in recent years.
4 |4 o' W3 K- p' ]0 h1 B" @& V1 r - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' {& w! r9 G2 t) o# _) ~! k
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 @& _ B. {; w$ R$ a$ r# R4 }; z
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
: a; b0 h1 ]' T7 P" d3 X$ w price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
: s4 T$ j v! h, f; Z' C following two years of deterioration.
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