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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 N0 c5 j5 c6 k* k0 V8 C
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
9 u! R8 r: m2 \9 T1 U( |middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- A. W, O& T* n- ~9 r
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,8 g. D+ F+ _# U
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) H) Q6 \- F$ L3 b, C" C
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 `$ x8 t5 d! q) ^0 v K, c
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is. X, O: W& J2 R; i
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) Z: V7 w. N9 ?) Y8 T
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" E+ `9 @" w3 C* _/ J& } I
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is6 P g; O/ @' M; Q) N- w7 l
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
$ h5 ?8 o Q8 ~7 v% ?1 G% mwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have# b. G0 p; p. I' l8 l7 q
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.0 @& E* D0 q- X' \7 E; S s* U
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 Z3 p* [5 U! L( \% R) t
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
& b5 ^( [" Q* |home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
5 A( N; g) K7 ]0 p9 |Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
- z- I9 }6 L+ ^! I" e- c9 ?: M4 }3 ]/ _standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and( n; u1 p! m# T, e& i6 D' S# L
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.8 i5 C1 S) V2 |( X- L( c# J
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ ]7 {3 ^/ b! ^" B3 r- T Lmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
. \3 k( X' m. G: q n0 uthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at% S b9 E( V) k
historically depressed levels.9 z y) K4 L9 u& a
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
J$ h( `, V! _0 O7 }2 jof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House( y( }1 A$ d3 V, p& }. n! G
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the: k4 c: I; W, y
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 q. w' b- u5 o& T9 Fenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the# s# Y$ c& Q+ f; g3 a; q$ `
months ahead," added Hogue.) l3 U, z9 o" d
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
2 q+ U+ L' s4 u* [4 ~8 jcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 S8 a; i- k5 Q; U42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
' [+ E9 [4 O! \) P1 Y) ^- U The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for- n" `1 O7 w% I) H
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- ^$ g8 e6 o) { N
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
7 n; S3 U; ~6 ^% Utakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
; G8 Q5 w8 e' J( {; I The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
% c$ {+ s, i! {+ G6 W: Ibased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
* v& n( _- m; P4 v- M: xbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented& [/ w5 }0 b& s* N6 L6 I
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard7 U/ J N4 c% `- c1 ~: \
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
& o* v' d# I3 W3 @1 i; b6 QFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
2 q6 t) f5 h$ m& f! P/ J3 Lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50" @7 {, ?. j9 ^4 K) M) Y, h3 e
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.' H( O' G2 v" o! x6 Z
, Q5 Z8 \" i# K
<<
) n4 Y2 s& U: I+ V9 M Highlights from across Canada:
; Z5 y$ m, B, J5 ?- o" K+ H# q5 B& g, @2 a, ^3 ]2 v5 Y+ t% c$ |. m
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has7 L& U+ _& D, @& C
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
4 v! W s6 U' C; C4 L9 } home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound/ Q! ~ W" F* `) d# i5 W
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
3 b [& H- M. W0 S" p since about the middle of 2007.
0 l! z) M B5 ?" R% O5 o: H8 P - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the' ~ D8 q- S7 B7 [: P" {
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
' E% T0 G! h$ w [8 s; {- S decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 l6 L" n4 a; Y [1 P2 r5 B
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 h" l' w( X2 u9 I/ u poor affordability levels.
7 R7 I: I$ r E2 o m' {) y( b - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
9 @9 g5 X1 S) m7 y+ b vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# o2 {; X3 r, c) p. M prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.- ^; d% d( @9 N
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. ]3 B4 _% |6 D) [1 I! k, x minimize any downside risks.3 p9 y3 V5 [$ j1 h
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
8 ^& b# m# j6 V/ N conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
: ]( ^2 }/ n$ V unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
2 r) K0 b4 k! \/ i( \/ Y: j 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
! N7 X k* K8 c0 x; R" L being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.; o+ t' w, v* {
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 p6 \+ R! ?- [- d) [ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
- G$ \/ c2 u2 w: F far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up0 S1 a* F& b; \6 C' Q3 U
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be! C" e2 K* ]. ?1 V( ^7 x
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, i- A* i+ W" _' ]1 U9 s7 s
modestly in recent years.* |* Y( R9 f$ N+ P) Q; O8 D
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. p m. n' ?% {8 b
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
- x+ j: S* B$ q: w3 [3 P spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
+ p2 P6 I& |& W4 [1 z, K {, e price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
4 v6 Z' _& |' ?" ] following two years of deterioration.& _. q* y! k/ C" ~3 w7 u) E+ Q
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