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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
1 x5 j% Y8 g3 U& Y8 k) K* h/ m TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the# G5 o% p2 p5 ^1 [# G; s+ n+ m
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
7 x- @! a7 w1 P r0 d ~gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
. a, Z7 ?1 ~: haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. S0 p3 r+ q3 }7 T0 I
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( w/ |& Q: F9 v( V) B. ~ L/ v
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
6 y, G; H& u1 e% b$ uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability# A# f. y; R8 |* h/ t; Q
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
, l/ T, Q3 \3 C5 R8 ~: \# n* q RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! p9 \3 U# ^8 M$ Bworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,0 B& m' {$ a/ q- o8 [
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have! W6 w5 ^3 z4 n& b
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; j0 U7 P1 d: t) j7 g1 H* T2 B The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the2 z- ]$ t( N0 H& E" @
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" Z! F. s2 @# o% v% m4 k4 P
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
' _1 g/ p8 P+ B+ EAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the- q3 o1 ?0 k+ l6 h T
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
- y. X" b6 k/ \the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
8 P f& i6 u. M9 O, W. L4 b& R+ \, M According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
) o0 }; J0 o$ U* qmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in8 ^, y' ?0 E3 G' J ?) `0 T E
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
% f0 \1 W& _9 O) o% shistorically depressed levels.
) E1 a0 A+ q/ F, \- P; b Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
8 z! X$ @& `7 M* M/ ^of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
( d! p8 t# [+ @) Vprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the$ F7 p+ }0 B9 R; a# \1 t
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This' ~) M/ Q+ ^5 m9 \3 a) K* I
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
% ]$ N& i4 ]9 J! s) }& @months ahead," added Hogue.
, ~' j6 r: d8 V" X3 m( J RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest( _8 L/ q I, |' q$ g3 v( J
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary, j2 h% C6 Z1 N4 R1 g
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
4 S8 E& P2 Z: v) { The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
4 ?$ O# p7 K$ k% l2 G# \4 la broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these/ [/ L V: i* Q6 h
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only" q) E8 [' @& X* k9 I
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.0 u+ D \2 Q( ?5 d" c4 o: Y7 f
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
6 J" U! \" X* o9 z, F7 G4 I4 o3 v" tbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ b4 x& ^! x: y# y% }7 Y7 \9 r0 b
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented2 F! s/ x) c! |1 B" U
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard4 r$ v8 ~$ ~$ j/ v
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
m7 i- F- ]" dFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
0 n) Y/ e0 Q+ T& U2 ^/ J2 e5 E3 |costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 503 z8 a: `8 F5 `& s2 |* P( X5 U# t9 n; E
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
- I" l4 J$ J: x
7 w# A. [7 h7 I$ b <<" d4 [5 U, P- I. p( c/ z2 }
Highlights from across Canada:4 G, a* K3 n3 W7 U1 f
, M" x0 ], D8 ?' E/ E6 I - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
* U& H b$ C% h5 k5 ~2 P intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
6 K6 V- S4 w3 ?" E' U; k home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
, J) j" W g7 E& V. R6 T4 `( T only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
1 d* L* p( h: y( {( Z3 d since about the middle of 2007.
1 E4 d9 _- P/ x& ^2 E: j - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the. X" Z @# i( H" F4 M
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
* n5 j0 ~, x! {1 t decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% s( z9 t- T7 X largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely/ o; g; j1 E' X4 M4 p
poor affordability levels.6 T0 k/ ~- M* O6 t8 _
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
9 [, C8 x! M6 t& S+ K8 t, W2 [ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
% v/ L4 f3 Y, _$ c prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 V. N( e# t: p7 C Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
- G& A+ O9 Q3 x. A" f minimize any downside risks.3 s& g8 ]; d+ Y. b5 @
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market* v4 S8 Y% F% t+ x9 d
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
7 t; Y: f/ a% i- K2 K- F' z unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early2 ?, ~8 ?! Y) b2 Y0 I, h& p. U- _8 u
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly: F1 L: ^6 Y% C" i" \9 S
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.3 o" Z& f* v* x5 ]" c
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
7 c4 p% `# {- w4 F$ y Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
" W; I. W8 y6 q9 g; d$ S$ i3 N far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
! A4 |0 ~ L% r. T; c4 x8 A! ~( a3 L reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be* r3 @8 X- O/ ?
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, |/ o+ o3 X! Z! a9 H
modestly in recent years.
( p8 k/ U, l- ]6 s3 ?: a+ J: C3 Z/ N - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 H2 |( I+ p2 }5 R; A, i
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot; i8 [; Y0 n) }! j0 u( T
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
2 {; ]( }* ?% M8 C& t q9 z price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability3 |$ _6 K# l/ [; W; r4 r" `
following two years of deterioration.
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