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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC * P K- I/ Z1 y2 Y9 r4 p9 z( ^
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
1 o* y& b1 T$ a0 v! dmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive; C. D! a) K. `0 [$ g3 w
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,7 u- |$ Q! ]8 q: o6 D. O/ b
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
/ s9 R# U- o' Q2 t' y$ V8 f3 A "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"7 g4 d. X- o3 Y& P2 _% x
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is& S. ]" r0 D" U' v
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability8 ~0 F6 S+ y/ ]) w# U, F
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."& g* Q) G3 [4 R4 `7 q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is9 n: J, H, g2 M- i0 q6 T/ b
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% q H" P5 c' n1 h7 v1 Bwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
- e+ h" b; V) @3 @5 d! r# Jsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.6 C" |5 r& T" z2 w) u- |
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
2 D8 g) Q1 F3 y0 M; ~& ? g( H! M; bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 A) O9 g/ D t: i* yhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& C" u% ~- x3 B. p+ DAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the) `4 h+ u( B# l/ H1 Z5 w
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and5 w7 D% l7 V! k: h; j. N$ b! x
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
( F2 X& o3 s S1 |8 ~+ M1 h According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets1 a, R( k F/ X4 j/ H, A" x" A9 S
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
- B$ ]; u! U3 u8 q6 I/ E& ]4 Y; {the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
8 e0 p9 f }/ ^/ T2 L1 u. S4 Jhistorically depressed levels.
' d3 B T$ d- R* |1 g: L3 [ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost: L) T. V9 L7 g- f+ D
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House% [' o! n% i8 x( g8 _1 H
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
' y" F3 x0 c/ i* t Uhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This8 T. J6 R( O0 n2 V) {
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
+ s3 v; \3 d# [+ H2 h1 @$ g& ~months ahead," added Hogue.! J' A. z" e) W) t( q8 ^- S, C
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest$ n: g7 ~, p; m$ E, R
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary8 n# c; ~# R H* J
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.( v5 n3 ]) Y5 l1 m) C
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% m8 o! _- i2 U
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these; e! x( O: k, m8 t. N" j4 |
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
7 _; K% ^0 ]- Q& E8 utakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
9 S& \6 G1 f! J2 Z" d- D- c1 l The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
/ d% ~. {+ H* m1 t9 ~& Rbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
( j+ R7 n# q% w0 g! Vbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented! P+ U! p+ V1 p5 [; e6 Q
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
" v* k" T& s& z0 }4 X6 R4 `condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.0 V6 K) w3 @' }
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
& } B, T2 I" Bcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
m, }3 B! Y$ H6 k& F' \per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 j! n9 _" ]( i" b: o8 z: _
& I( W: f; v) f, M3 b. L4 c8 b <<
3 l' l# |8 x( S3 K, r Highlights from across Canada:
8 }9 G( ^; K1 h% t% f& ^7 ~9 F1 a8 p. S4 i" T9 L- ~. @( i5 G
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 N+ ]! t1 D" {% k$ T9 S intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" g1 @! Y8 Q6 u1 ^
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& G( E, J7 ?+ M9 }6 z3 v only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track0 I4 p/ i% p: I+ u% V3 c/ i7 ?
since about the middle of 2007.
( ]1 B. V* x/ X' Z# u7 W - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the: w3 t" R( Q* B
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
2 U$ U, D0 X8 I" x decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
w7 G) Z# S C2 t" f" f' }$ G+ }6 Q largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
! [: w( B( f0 x0 A' ^ poor affordability levels.# ` W8 u: m5 r4 O; y r6 L5 Z6 T
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the# t# d% j6 A3 y/ C6 k" X" C2 l
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
b3 `1 g% }, |5 {. ^8 W& h prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly." p: q3 w% r7 |2 g
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
& |% l: w! z$ {& I, m# b1 } minimize any downside risks.$ X9 G3 x. N, o4 S' W8 E# z; Q0 f
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
: @- N( F9 K' a, C conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ U% [+ @' k% i
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
6 @# R2 d2 T; W7 e 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly* `2 H5 \- U f
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
+ `/ H5 N( e. B1 k - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in+ T2 p9 \- }1 s; Z {
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus$ l( {2 r8 [5 ^/ z1 Z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up ~9 S/ x" o2 @1 Y: N& G( I. y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
1 l% H1 T, u. @2 a; s ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 e" h5 B; P4 u0 `' p! [1 @
modestly in recent years., i# U0 _% Y( l. B+ V1 c
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the8 F0 R) t; K, D
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot ?. |& Y% a, j+ d
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward. [. j( k9 B. [
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability" i- J3 l/ ?3 n0 t7 {. I3 l8 [2 j
following two years of deterioration.
* k% c+ j- V6 Z9 c% M; ]8 Y >> |
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