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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( d0 q3 R' H" a! b) U r TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
- ^' t+ k, p" b9 p& O) Rmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. H0 ~3 g3 S7 l, z& G8 x
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- m" @! u: [; K2 R( @& d* W
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: g3 L% C& U0 |6 d( `7 d! S& w "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
1 t z5 k+ _* y4 g1 X# l/ Y1 ]3 _said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is( [. Z2 x. i- _/ w) i
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
6 }2 d( l. Q3 z" }measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
* A+ C" ~2 N8 b7 n, k RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! o) M8 Z( y1 B$ Mworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
0 }( G0 @' ^/ s q8 D' Rwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have6 K% ^3 Q C6 {3 I
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
8 u* N9 B) D6 y" C: J5 { \ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the: M7 ?# \7 b4 A; c
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a T1 e; W3 C5 p3 |
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.; w) j" r5 E& [# h; y
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the4 i) j' V/ c X6 Z0 R9 k! r* X
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and {3 l& ]/ S' G7 r, Z
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
' X3 y: x- f9 v According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets5 ?6 R& K" |3 q5 N- g# s
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in o2 M# {+ b8 K/ @0 T. ^. n
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at. @$ z9 F4 g r' [8 }1 ]: I1 d
historically depressed levels.5 x6 }9 G2 X& a3 T
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
+ B# [+ e( b4 `, L- Fof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 o4 M3 i8 g( c. ^4 _# Sprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
/ y% r; h% L; `, }! j3 p4 u# b7 V( h6 ahands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
# z- p8 o4 U& g5 n+ J# Uenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
3 ?5 u- k1 x2 a: N8 o: l1 Omonths ahead," added Hogue., d0 F! e; |# b& g* m! W. m
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
+ X" E+ O+ a3 wcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
) u' O/ w }! u$ N! O42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
( t6 h2 _' B8 f" @/ b The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
( F8 I6 @: }9 U; m$ H9 W# la broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
$ z7 Y1 S7 I& D& ]: P6 V. w Xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
/ t7 n" m& W4 `$ Stakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
+ E+ u9 [) E3 i- z8 D& }0 Y# A8 G5 v) v The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is( _" E' B+ }! O
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property( ?0 ?4 h3 t9 E1 |' W! j4 [
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# n" V8 M1 ~/ R V: ?6 Z
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard# l G' f5 U! L# b8 R
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* ~# E* a4 i$ SFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership) q, X9 U- l+ G+ F: Q* Q) N/ Z. S
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
, O9 @/ {! x* {" j4 Eper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
4 o' F! u! b1 H' j s* ~
" H3 ^" }' x% S) { <<$ L7 `& E3 j! X& k# h5 W
Highlights from across Canada:
6 c- J7 A" W; S# i" n# W1 _1 c$ q# T
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has0 p/ v2 m: {) d6 d! b- ~
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
) ~, e! R2 I( g) B* Y# K home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' b2 s7 _/ Q% }6 S# N
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 n, z4 d6 b+ ~- l since about the middle of 2007.
6 x4 ]) w/ E: h! n; L6 j6 | - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* Q$ d+ Y- d& b7 `
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to* a( Z- M; o9 T1 B. C. \) d! i/ n8 I
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
! V/ }6 e0 v% }- E/ d0 x8 @" P largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
# @# A' E- r# \ poor affordability levels.
; F- T+ J/ P4 s1 f - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 a- S1 o/ Q& i1 n1 c+ m! { vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
/ o) m" b0 v# P! Y. v6 g# B* c prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
% [" i- z# R J8 }) j; L$ y3 b Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
) P2 K: m4 s; U+ [+ {3 d minimize any downside risks.
9 |/ P( l( _. K( K9 } - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
9 k, z9 B* F8 m% W conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is; [6 G& T" g* _- b& g# v
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
! G# Y7 U/ [/ a 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly7 N8 U9 Z m V$ o
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.* B2 g9 r- ]* v
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, F& Y7 S! B/ |9 i' d: W7 p Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus2 ~0 ]9 M% u5 n6 C0 A
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up) g1 W" d0 v5 M" X4 g, I
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be) j5 k e B' F, J/ @' u
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ |. C# H9 O3 i! m& X: m+ x1 m modestly in recent years.7 a5 d( y) m8 D
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
: _2 p7 P5 E8 x8 x0 Q* t general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
( Y% D# u. q/ P& L spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward# l% r `. g6 M6 `$ k
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
0 d+ z9 Y E3 q4 a1 { following two years of deterioration.. f2 A/ q( m3 q% M
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