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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
8 n$ w' R' d) |. {9 G TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
5 u0 W) B/ x8 \# }( Q, vmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive8 X7 Q V6 w, }
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
: v7 P- B3 T# U0 l' _according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
( h$ K2 t% ^$ G* ~ D "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
) m. K' Q# ~. t: N+ Q9 F6 qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
/ d9 E* G; R' w6 ~- Q2 jimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
+ m# Q& U' F4 ^) D: Imeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
( v* [% P' {4 a! X& w7 x4 o8 E RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is6 y1 Z% a1 M+ J6 Q
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! Q8 h2 b8 e2 C. Owhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
7 f1 a0 P6 ]$ u) Hsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.7 N; {- E* H( |; q" y4 M( G/ p
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 Z' S3 \! ]8 @$ t% d
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
, P. J1 x* n. _+ N u0 s8 g0 hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.* G. z6 k8 ^) ]; `5 L* Z1 Z5 _4 v Z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
`2 h) W9 z+ F, [$ Bstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
4 Y( I' @0 Y* @2 Qthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. G& n5 K# A' a) H According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
) f4 ?& p% |8 \0 O: g5 P9 zmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in& h C( r* V0 n
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
& t- G, L7 E+ Qhistorically depressed levels.$ z4 G+ ]& d0 q$ A. ?4 k- q' t/ D
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost8 o! S& x, [: Q0 f% F
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
2 M4 z0 i* c9 ~4 O/ b% E1 S$ e% `- Aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the; d: I+ n- h( T$ ~0 k6 `8 q
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- v1 f9 F# |* M4 K& E5 e+ Y0 L( `enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
b P! w! D8 e+ A% fmonths ahead," added Hogue.; M3 f3 ]# D3 C0 I# q+ M8 E
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest9 B# r# @) B9 Y i2 ^
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
% D) Y* X' V* @ V1 {8 e# ^9 o42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
4 i7 W, f5 k8 { The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% T1 i# c% H) e7 f
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
6 K! e3 a) g6 K8 qcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 _' U2 f1 a+ N, [
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
# z% M8 F8 Q5 V; L The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# |; [# R1 H( ~. O0 x
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) v3 _1 V9 K( nbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
$ P7 n) w+ [+ r$ Wincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
+ Z9 @, u, [ |8 _* _* |6 p$ F. K, Bcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
# x. A6 L8 V, g! \8 a" c; RFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
: S& q6 R5 M; \* ncosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
\ ~6 P- F: f5 M7 Kper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 Q6 [: K' e8 W: l8 P3 C3 t
1 s( k- s, s5 L2 Y! Q5 C6 i$ k: c0 g <<
2 A- O6 _% V# t3 O! T/ t Highlights from across Canada:9 ~2 [2 v( n. T T1 u/ v
; l T2 g% q+ W" H: |, ]3 w1 K - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has- U" `) }; ]. ^4 `" E
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 {+ k! p* g$ @& y t | n M
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
2 w7 v. |: H8 N- T only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 T, l l8 I3 h1 F9 c9 B, w since about the middle of 2007.3 i/ i4 _2 ?3 N: B7 t6 ?. {
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
/ _6 G# ?( Q p$ x4 C frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
) p; d5 Z4 N! O0 ~, o' k5 X decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
* a: Y* i2 k8 F2 x% a: u largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ q) y0 d$ h6 R$ j( u poor affordability levels.
( ?0 w8 {& n. o; i/ h- z6 B! @ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
! F. y' L, T8 b: i vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
" a9 Q; k8 O" t8 l% Y( | prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
9 x& D. {7 u+ x- g- Z2 ` Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ ^0 [6 J; |" n' Y! r
minimize any downside risks.
+ }0 z% h7 k$ [. k - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market7 N# ~# B7 f8 B& T
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is9 M2 x) ]. Y& X2 G, s3 W: F# P& H7 u
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early5 J" E8 Y T. V, Y. S
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
$ b) i* n6 I. c being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ P* F9 g t7 L( [) G
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in" l! n6 E% A* Y) H8 W. \
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
& m! r s. Y5 }" B d- N5 R F far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 \! `7 l7 M: C4 Z reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# V# U. v: N! t0 ]6 t& E* T7 ~ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
; z, ]# m1 q7 Q. K modestly in recent years.. [; K( Z3 h6 Q: R
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the; i0 s$ Y: a4 u3 T# }0 |
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
" o. G2 ^5 K% I spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward- T, b' p9 M" T, W0 h! r1 P' R: j& D
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
, X/ `! L, _0 j2 V; J following two years of deterioration.
7 h6 O. |+ B! e >> |
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