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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( x( G9 _, _. w% }# z6 n) o
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
% s4 M5 g2 _3 m9 {0 C% Zmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
$ {. V! S2 X4 s3 K0 D4 agains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( {7 b {1 v, C# A: t8 O3 ^6 c
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
0 o( j% R5 m1 A% V. B "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
4 e( F$ d0 H& Xsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is0 j: W5 M' S/ \' a# ?3 m
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability. _ f) M% `% P* j# r
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."1 v8 m5 F+ ?+ f# H
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is1 a4 g0 s4 D: y7 u" X$ v
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,4 B, L/ v5 P6 P9 S: `4 f
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
: b# t0 }6 K: y! H* Psustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
5 x( p; R- a! F1 x' c4 N$ C0 M" l The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 o6 E8 q% O7 b. D
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a3 N4 u, \! d2 F1 b: X& \ }$ ~
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
) p' z1 C L8 C- c' R/ cAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the; W8 t" k0 R1 q) `" e9 u
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and3 r2 f$ _2 i, F1 N% w0 p( p
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.( V; P5 d/ A' }+ R7 @/ J% `
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets1 b6 e" o, R" q& s- \, G
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 `) W; E4 I: ^% ]
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at" X. S) |7 @2 e- m' n8 v
historically depressed levels.% z& M* Z- U C! u# u$ I5 E. i" e
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost0 x- t' a. P; r6 F- u7 p
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House Y5 [4 r. C2 p8 X$ G/ h& Z8 t
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the/ V0 ^5 h/ h) V; S5 n8 Y: C7 f, F
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
6 x% u0 ?+ g/ O) Q7 j* j+ c5 Tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
8 S# ?9 G# ~0 }/ ^, p1 M e Mmonths ahead," added Hogue.
# _ b" |5 Q) r u; ~$ s3 D' q RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
: L5 t( S! m0 }cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ c+ W$ f; }; V+ ]# M+ t42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 w4 V# h1 Q* k% D2 V The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
3 @5 F6 f! K# D! ?8 @a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these! ]3 u. E* b r1 M8 d. b2 c: D: @. }
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only/ m$ u! ~' ~9 S* i
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& Z/ b( X" x8 g
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
* u" \/ U. i3 V5 w$ Gbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 T& ~4 H9 ?' jbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
$ a5 F# N$ K: E. D7 hincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard) T7 B% I/ o5 H( z
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.9 _ s. M& M6 X: n
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: d1 t5 c0 R- b$ p( Q
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
- j ^2 `+ h5 X% dper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 B4 B8 X$ V/ N) v1 [+ D1 \( w
5 l( @: {' Q! B' l6 I; O2 Z' _$ }4 E <<+ U2 Z: W( ]. N+ Y5 k' z1 }: A
Highlights from across Canada:# K; h: P- Z' y% c9 R5 b9 I
8 N7 N# @1 v+ B" C7 t0 T5 O
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
" a8 B8 A% p8 c' d; o+ n) L intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
0 ]9 r& ~9 P% z% z! F8 _- ` home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& z3 A9 m* l. U) W& s) {+ ~ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track" f* v& W- X7 H* ?, T4 `& D6 L9 I
since about the middle of 2007.8 W r& v G% G/ |. y$ t+ }
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the; r; e4 c' p8 T: R0 I& U6 J
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
2 z' Y6 O# l% T4 _; H4 G7 y decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still1 }; ]+ d2 v- \+ F1 t
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
+ m& W! \ _& Q/ K poor affordability levels. @0 ?/ `4 h. Q0 ?0 C* R
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the6 ]( H6 H/ z# Z3 M2 G2 C! K2 C
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and) T H( O% g* e5 B/ g1 D2 q/ Z" Q
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.7 p; [! V a+ H' I2 V; }0 _
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
" l/ Y4 {' T7 J! F+ U. _8 q2 ` j% I7 v minimize any downside risks.
3 s& e. {; K5 U* w( i. y. w - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market- X7 X+ p" Z3 m# E5 Z5 V: Q
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) {5 H7 o" ]3 D( d, v2 [4 ^6 n
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early# r7 v+ ?# b# {, r! X2 P# ^/ {2 h
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
& T n, s! ]1 n8 { being restored to levels closer to long-term averages." c7 c/ i: E! e# |* {/ F1 y. j( W
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
3 }/ O9 y$ H. i- V# O Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus% E2 Z& W# i9 P7 Y) s8 ?" r& I
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up) @% r$ b: J' e% b
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be' O, }5 z) N' s8 Y0 Q
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, D" w6 g1 e, z, `9 R: D" l, v
modestly in recent years.
( Q2 B) Q; M9 ]4 m - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, w8 z h/ ]* z+ ]# |. |6 [4 F
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
; n- U; |& M( } spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
- i( k. o) H/ C* b8 h4 O% s price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability# m m- G* _2 x. q/ W
following two years of deterioration.! ]. R% ]5 E& i ~7 J4 b" H
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