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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC , S! d4 {/ J# ?1 I
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the/ L6 ?) P1 `" k P0 v/ a, Q7 i+ N m
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive" N7 Q$ F6 Z6 }& L: X
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,& M: \. A8 x% C: u @4 a
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.+ Q/ h) R5 Z. _% ~# v
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"1 f5 w* T% h9 {( W; L+ y9 R! j
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% k! k/ c0 ^& X5 g. ^
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 w9 h$ v/ N% q7 `+ w- u
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."; b5 h! f4 j5 \% l7 [$ f
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is% [( A# O( q) {, y5 j9 S# j
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,1 x9 A+ G' |4 j! s5 Y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have& `; T; f) {) j
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.' ] h$ b$ W! s0 {" ]& O1 p
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 k7 W& y" v# ~6 Fproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# @3 d* z* R5 |
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ m) W' i0 y& T8 }1 eAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the: ^; g# @; N3 x! C. L% C
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
- g+ ^3 P9 C% }1 X U0 n: i; k; S! R& Hthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.9 E% |8 Y! a- M/ O f; J1 A7 r
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 I1 X4 P6 ~8 E/ u4 ^
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 O( V( `$ ^+ {1 j
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
0 _, [2 h# v3 H; G8 Qhistorically depressed levels.( ?3 z5 R3 d4 M ^; d
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 o. D9 i( U' x) _8 Y9 }2 X$ e6 rof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ B, Y, E+ R, g/ H) g! s! `prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
* V7 X) A9 s. a8 Z! Ahands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 H# L1 L+ u8 v" p+ o- T. qenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
+ R- G; d* }# ]months ahead," added Hogue.
: |. Z7 \% `; | RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest& f* b6 t6 w# |% E( D
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% S0 ?( e0 ~* S9 b. [; g* Z" T' A$ h
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.2 u6 ~4 g3 d* U& u) x& I
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
* d4 ^' E$ j% n( t; I" ka broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these( w+ `+ T$ R$ A U
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
$ `! t! l0 Q" b5 E0 |4 g$ r2 \takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
; ~7 ?; K6 d6 ?8 G% i The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is9 D c: e$ F( d( J1 s) {
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property$ \0 z/ T/ ]+ q
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% M; h# w3 k! z tincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
/ @* @+ c+ f3 Y* ^- y# |3 X; ]condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
- G# Y# D6 C) v/ ~: vFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership( i0 I6 Q7 p9 G8 J& `7 {: d* Y: _
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
* R+ O+ P( C9 i$ _3 ?% yper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 P+ k2 W( r) q( t" \+ {8 O) r* f0 I6 [8 h3 v
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" E/ {, ?$ a6 f: S Highlights from across Canada:5 F# M$ B$ C/ ?
9 l' [+ `( ~" W9 a6 c
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has; N i- u8 t% |# O3 q+ D: |* n' ]
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( H1 l0 L- r8 R+ K, `, J
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- S% G( o6 x% r9 ?2 p; K only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
$ O1 Q9 ^: s5 \# G1 g" M+ F since about the middle of 2007.
" K# c5 }6 B1 `. W# ]" U e - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% P p' x" j) K; c( X7 H |
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to! R* Q b* }0 Z }3 J, {
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 Z/ P. ~* ^" Q8 u9 p- [& ~ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
/ v. |. O' \2 M6 p! k9 A poor affordability levels.8 J0 k& h* `: c0 C g5 V5 X/ k
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 q7 f7 Y4 j* d) d5 l# V vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 g* B7 X- n! _1 I3 m, q1 a; J prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 u: x3 F0 ~$ v/ b& k
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
/ [( E$ L* V6 z; X/ W5 L minimize any downside risks.
; T! H1 ]* t) y- W3 X, ^ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
/ l) J3 p& X" ]$ N& |& O conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is5 Y$ J( w0 X: t7 X4 _* [6 r
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early' c, W. G1 y5 s3 ?& B0 r0 ]/ i5 {
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly5 [8 O, N+ f+ p- _4 J+ W6 U0 `( t
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
0 W: C7 Y- a8 m- l2 W" { Z - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in: C1 g' }& ?- X2 A6 U0 M
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
9 H+ C/ K0 \/ Q8 t* g far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 y% N( b/ I$ x; y5 |( @ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be+ a5 D: Y0 J/ ~; J7 m& R/ i
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 |- @# s# e% I2 A- x modestly in recent years.
4 H6 j- D2 r* | - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* ?1 M' t/ U1 Z3 T
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot' a2 s4 j6 X6 C! X
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
+ g& @1 O5 D4 m- V: `" n! z! t price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
$ v0 G0 h# }( }* g% W( Z following two years of deterioration.3 \1 n8 d' x* m1 ]% v2 ^
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