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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC I: i j* H3 j$ t) c. c( M
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 K# ]# V& ~9 B$ { e4 r8 Hmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
; z. ?! [. H2 s9 h% rgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,, _* [' U# i" c7 e
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.# E+ ] u' x4 K$ H
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 x) W0 A) g. S
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
; Y6 ?; F# z! r" g6 G2 N: Rimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
- W0 y5 k# n0 s ]. P7 H; q5 Pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 J# e2 a& l% Q0 ~1 o RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
" z( `) o9 [1 D1 }worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
" E% ? M0 o6 m3 }* S+ jwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have" G6 _% F% V1 L) M, [; O
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. }" h: S+ b( W; _6 g, ?% e
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the1 K% T) a, n Z; P% a2 g! @8 L$ c
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" e4 G1 U9 i! [/ J3 o- Y5 k
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% B0 G- e) J( Y0 a5 y
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
* l% q' M0 ]9 T' V1 y2 R- ]6 xstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and$ S* g; S9 V7 X! q3 ^
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.& t$ \8 n, [0 H+ t" l
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
% {" G; g0 m; ^$ wmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 ?" {0 Q# W) D8 z) B; Y/ q6 t' y
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, V5 M, s, [ C6 P* U/ rhistorically depressed levels.2 q+ t1 D7 j" x, n+ [: S8 ~
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
6 o+ s" d/ c8 V. U. P0 dof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House' w* y2 M- V1 e9 j* w- @5 ]
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, j# n8 k& F, g2 k7 ?0 h
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; ]2 }# ]9 u% O
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
& O- p) X& o" Kmonths ahead," added Hogue./ D I' Z5 p0 r" m4 ~
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
) z. r2 M; O( u# I, a1 xcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
7 b9 X/ o1 d6 }+ c' r" L& q42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
! |4 u# d* v7 Y6 X! h; J" w9 a( j The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for; S4 _, ]9 p0 Q. x
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& b; u0 n# w: K0 M' z4 p: K9 xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only( Z8 A4 Y, Z9 Y) V7 R5 \' O0 T5 x$ `4 `
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 b, @* b& q6 y! c The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; u. n( R. f8 ^ O8 kbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property" W" t/ o0 Q3 e' \; ~* \
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
) D$ n3 ~+ E1 q9 E& S3 t1 vincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
2 H- t9 V U- y, ?: ~0 Econdominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.8 X V' b( } r5 ~, H
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: w1 C4 X9 a' z& o3 m2 ?) A
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# l/ v0 s" N# y! ^- ` P- X. ]: E: s! }
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.+ i& o' I2 h, u/ @
2 g1 p/ _) b% }# h
<<- _; G% V+ D" |/ {
Highlights from across Canada:9 S; F1 `+ I9 M5 K l
+ b$ U) @9 V. F* a' ]- Y& G - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
3 q/ i" ], n3 b$ v) l4 e- s intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ H& E7 z9 x- a8 _
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound0 g+ ^$ X( A1 K7 `. m- g# T
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 q7 z: G# n4 f8 G- k since about the middle of 2007.7 X7 P" i8 d- k" p l L. W: ~
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
3 m4 S2 ~- u. i. ^" Q% o& p frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to; }2 M( ?1 }# C4 i5 o
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
; l' U/ y' k% b! U! y3 ^# S largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
+ B+ p, J6 e; w, T2 s% h poor affordability levels.% E' |' h3 x/ X) c. |- s. O
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* o ]+ A$ d& r4 \, `
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and& J$ s# g, U, J0 P" |" u% x
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
7 h% n/ I* s0 Q. K4 M* X Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to) ]6 L# l: P6 b! G L2 c- c
minimize any downside risks.. O, T! Y) R- X
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
% W# Z- N. q8 L; Q! l conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
) j5 k5 I8 Z9 I0 i3 `# r) u unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( f- p q9 s O/ J9 J/ X& X/ k9 t
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly7 Z% k8 Y1 c+ P2 L6 d
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
. Y: l( A$ E. C1 k$ H8 Y8 o( ` - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
1 M# |. K1 z! `3 _ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 t# m( A! u0 a4 Q
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 [$ B( \. U" b( y. v c
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
; c- R5 [; {/ J: G& F$ F7 @# E ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" n' Q9 r5 f h modestly in recent years.' o/ g; D+ U$ \
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the1 }& G4 S. A: z2 s7 F& ?
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
0 f7 q" h$ G" P* M spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward7 b" I6 ?" J- N! \% m) m. `: G5 D8 Z
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability2 A. L% a8 \/ J# P/ |) E4 S' A4 x
following two years of deterioration./ K4 U; }9 q, C0 [6 |0 X& H
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