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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
% d2 V8 w2 a; e. m9 S% I6 ]" F/ \ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
5 [* a# ]2 \# H- Ymiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
' {1 H$ J1 |# c; I0 Wgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
$ v1 E# M- n) m+ a* F. S- daccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
- d, N" R9 W8 N; J "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! V9 _+ I# O% \
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is# L; C2 Z4 H4 F, \, f+ U
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 T7 r4 M+ o* C, v) z0 h) N; z
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
! n" |5 [8 ~0 }+ s% i3 E# G RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ s! y- l6 {6 h: q! i9 I
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 E! i% L( `5 H4 ]
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have6 ^) Z; K9 m" s2 B* @2 N7 U
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.9 P: e' R- _) Z% u! N" c* Z& Q# q
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
3 g; g- O* Y& H( c8 Rproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
1 H1 w6 _( d r/ ~. Hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& ]4 L; I6 ~+ W# W. O7 g" CAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
4 j! ?# r+ j! P, @standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and) G5 Y: }$ ^; I0 X
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.: C) T! _, e( M' _7 Q2 J
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
( O2 t. {0 a& M4 v) }1 w" A% U% ^may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in* [5 \5 @- e4 D% @+ `
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
! I# @+ a& g& A- khistorically depressed levels.
0 w1 E, K7 ~# Y4 M+ u Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
( O- D2 ?! Z. B$ w% Uof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
- l* s# h' a$ B) d6 {7 sprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
/ |$ z# c! D3 e& ]3 zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
( \# x A7 E& @) C& M/ e0 \! u8 genormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
0 d2 h/ Y, N$ B O4 Y/ V' n- m) Ymonths ahead," added Hogue.
/ z" N; j. }. T0 A" ^+ c RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest) F# u& c+ b ^8 Y, V
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary8 P J* A [5 g* K5 a1 D
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
; k, R& X7 |7 h* X. ~1 `. s- ]; R# G The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
9 ^% X; i1 G/ d: d$ Ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these/ v( h$ _0 I2 d
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only9 f3 n4 ]. l: g5 [
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.! E+ B3 |/ @5 d. _/ e& G' v$ H& a
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
& Y/ G, A, ^- o0 Zbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& V' [1 N( x# Q0 m2 P; D& k2 W; I
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented% V7 P, v+ S: ]$ _
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( C! W* ^5 j( z
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.# ~! D5 t: ~0 B$ K$ k8 F) x
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership, d* `, \0 H S/ N$ ]# {" V
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 e; I2 ]6 B. [' R
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.* y' n$ j# a( k1 b
3 F( {# R3 [6 [5 [# N" \/ [
<<
8 B) K7 u' H+ l/ w& {' c$ H, x8 _ Highlights from across Canada:
% e& N& c. k8 E& [
" p9 h# p2 o* F. H0 o - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
Z+ Q( R# c9 y* }* ]+ D5 u intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 e* Z/ J5 T% [8 J2 l
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
7 R, n7 I/ I$ Z' {; I I7 g only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track0 B$ J2 Q' u+ g" u* _2 }& g5 f2 r
since about the middle of 2007.# n5 r% E/ p- H E3 @9 x
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the8 B4 g# @" N5 \
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# `$ {) o- T- P% J) {+ C8 Q
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* |/ s" [- j. u
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
7 W7 ]9 f" O# H6 d: d# \ poor affordability levels./ `: B0 ^, j$ n! u$ A; N
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the! q( c b3 \8 y. n
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
* m* { I* m- j" ` prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
8 `6 M* I, V5 W: b. S4 _ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to2 D) w8 o6 A1 _5 q5 o' r0 x
minimize any downside risks.
9 N8 R' z% N. t9 @/ m - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. ^- g* f& V1 k4 }7 Z
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
/ ^6 x! k) h# X' t! t2 Y1 O* s. S unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ X: U$ u/ U! A9 p5 H& b
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly( }- s7 t7 _0 ~0 D+ U6 R/ N
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
7 d* @+ ]9 I+ D+ @- F - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! u5 v$ j, H% C9 C4 i, e/ ^. P Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus+ d9 R0 ~/ X5 R9 H& t
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up" ~0 j* v7 K- i# S7 P, l
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be; \: j( t: y; b* ~
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
0 J' I i; X/ @ modestly in recent years.
$ S+ k7 v4 I5 N# ] T - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the( L5 `# V1 D+ {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
6 c9 f/ I. n; n, | spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward( C( F7 [8 T0 e3 C, n8 i: ^! Z4 W, ?
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
$ Q. k) b# _8 a- d( P, o following two years of deterioration." R2 }; t' }, F/ j* q( j* {, L
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