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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 G$ W# G: V' L6 S$ \5 u
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the1 | X! G+ f5 N4 v; z& g$ k, [
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive3 O, k4 h6 {, P
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions, P$ z" h$ O, g9 S
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.& S- ~$ I x8 ^; j3 H8 j+ F. i
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"' i# E! I5 @! v. z( L
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% b+ k9 T5 d. f' s
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 Z2 }9 k, g* r& n! z6 o9 U
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! G ?4 J" @4 n6 N
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
: L1 E' p( P3 x0 [: [worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 ~ A6 _! G2 e- j: R& [# `which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 l# o0 R( o; y2 gsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.1 C2 W9 W \3 u
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the3 _4 Q" o1 {0 Z
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
: G" t2 k8 L0 k, Chome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
; W/ J( \2 V! @Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( z' h+ m2 O' E! P. B* k& K2 _3 Wstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
8 J1 H \* I6 {' \4 k+ _+ L% R6 gthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
2 n* r4 F( {4 e8 a; L: y( u According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets; W1 M2 X$ K/ E1 Y1 f
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
5 @5 v( x( z* c) _3 Jthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at9 D$ @! [7 X0 s' B8 X
historically depressed levels.
6 Z3 Q" `! d9 Q; m. \6 w Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
, E& I) n/ m; b1 ~* Gof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; i. A/ e8 p1 a" B; V3 A, O3 P( {prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the* m# R) N$ S; U8 G3 L; T3 v
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
1 U- ?: u* W5 o( Z$ Venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
/ ]9 Q, D1 d3 X$ Lmonths ahead," added Hogue.
' \% _* r+ J3 M2 `2 v3 j D- c RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest. k4 b( z! {# X- }1 p
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
; B& e' p# k/ H- c, A) g! l42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
L+ Q, T" U4 }; f The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for5 q! g. R8 n5 J
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these0 O1 ^3 {6 O! c6 @. [. F @
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only- q2 P1 R' S* N8 _3 m. i# b( v
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
8 q/ V9 @ M- D' w- I4 V( b" d The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; f- ~, H' L( o/ E3 R5 o' wbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ N( R! d- d* pbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented' m& ~* E+ }3 o
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 R \ k) Z; d7 J. B
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
" ^! W, m9 i1 U! \' v& o7 j/ P' ?! ]" E6 xFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
0 w9 Y* C6 I0 k' L( L# s' hcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
6 m4 q) L: d. m7 q6 |per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 O4 e' e$ N2 u$ |2 M- k
. J& \+ p: c7 _ e0 T
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! M0 W/ J) d! W# c Highlights from across Canada:
" ], y; I! s% ^. x, U z
/ H1 T7 w6 g1 z - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
3 D' o! i( B7 I" J% ~, ]1 c intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing# d: T) c, Z9 P$ H% ]
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; T& k8 ?# [( S5 T4 L+ w
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track7 g! Y5 \$ _8 n: c, J$ h: ^9 M. ]
since about the middle of 2007.
& k% a @; F7 |( w' o7 e& s - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
. z$ w% e$ d; P! p9 W$ K) T K/ f frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
, D! l9 u2 o8 a/ {6 n0 ]: @4 P decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
" D* U5 q" ~* Y* V T& L q ~ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
" u) E: m- z- z, y7 L+ ^ poor affordability levels.
+ ?) q* S! f, i% R - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the9 z" E( Q# C9 C# ~* ^
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
& c$ E' l3 }# k8 a3 ] prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; W7 H! P/ }, n3 a Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
$ ?; Z* x x( P" p5 p3 I+ k8 W" T minimize any downside risks.
" [& z4 G( w% M7 |8 N# W, D- L0 M - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! U5 _, ?: a* w `# B# B
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is5 _. t: C6 q- t
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early V8 W8 K7 h9 d- y
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly2 X! U2 X7 S8 g; d2 L! g& H* }
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
3 B& {) i- g7 e" o V - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
7 C1 g, ~/ k2 i- ]9 o7 K Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 g) P' s1 d) p+ q4 Q2 |0 ^ l+ }- O far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ z" n+ x) ?8 H8 U! n
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be) {5 g' a: M G- Z2 e
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only) A8 t3 u g, h, D& w: x
modestly in recent years.
/ h7 J, Y# s; R! k) s* w1 { - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
1 e/ O5 K; u9 |* ]; K- r2 ~/ ] general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot+ X. y8 b1 u) O8 q- l; \. m
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
, t* V, R$ J5 n% O+ v3 ] price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 F! ~7 E8 J! |% b- _0 a following two years of deterioration.
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