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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 L- h* q3 S' m9 \
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 m" _/ U! B s+ b- @- ~
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
: [ U7 h( |8 O) ?- Z" s1 ngains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions, D( F9 P$ q/ B. l4 l9 t, f
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
/ H8 o3 |1 v. g/ c: ?, f. M "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
$ h2 F* s8 S% l3 Hsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 J8 S5 }( ^% S! e
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
' O3 [" c% P$ G* [8 c+ K$ ameasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
' h- D+ ]2 A2 E' S/ z0 r RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
# f2 {9 j. a n+ T: \3 Uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
& D/ o/ h/ {0 s. {* swhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 X. L- |* m3 V- z# |- R# m5 zsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
3 M7 @1 y) n4 `+ S2 o& a: v" }. y The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the J* O, L/ V% K4 S% F f
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a1 \1 x/ Q* X2 m/ Q9 Q% K
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.5 h$ a6 K" \5 @9 E* S- Y: O6 _
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the: h1 ~7 `7 ~! C5 T- K5 T
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
% S: `4 G+ V Z' t; uthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. N* W# h8 \4 d4 R# p5 N: B According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: V0 D8 P0 E ymay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in. u* n$ ~8 u- w
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at T* R' A. ]" k4 x+ r+ f7 @# g# O8 u
historically depressed levels.: }1 E. d5 ]) W4 |
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 P: G5 x0 y% e8 @
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House% P A7 ? Q k0 G9 S$ o& }* K
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the* [6 l, E$ c: }& g8 x8 _6 U% t$ H$ P
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This5 ^3 ^% I, v$ \$ n8 }
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the2 `2 e& U) {8 u0 E: ?
months ahead," added Hogue.
9 r3 Z1 n% h' @$ \- r8 x) z7 f RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest; |. [! B3 \! ~+ I8 D( l8 s$ m
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary3 L& h% s7 M, W; Z1 f6 ? { n/ ^
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.$ G, @! _2 s9 b) i0 k
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for0 p% V" j5 |; W% C0 F3 E- O
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
; T3 ]+ X/ n8 [, N: p" h1 `! f3 ~3 _cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only; S+ u3 k `5 f6 L3 n ?
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.* T' c* d4 Z: ]
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is* H# d9 M0 J: m/ V7 G' {& N5 G. \7 \- ]
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property5 S# n( D5 o% U4 A1 T6 F; N
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 n5 v& [' J' w% _9 n) xincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard S' K; D5 W+ C. N3 R$ y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
( F# x% m3 A- R. N- t. CFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership# U7 j- [* X$ U% z# A( y$ v/ w
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 503 q% N+ B$ [8 d+ Q M' ], x* m0 `
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
+ x( e+ L2 h C) O7 `: ]7 Q! ]3 N& I# e" A$ s" L# J
<<
" J2 t; i% r, y: ^ Highlights from across Canada:
/ _! M9 u' [8 [2 P7 B( d* S$ `( ]( O5 C- y# O- [/ y p
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' x5 R# s3 q( ]8 e1 C! Y* y
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
3 I y* m6 k' ^# o3 X4 h" h7 S home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
9 F4 K/ s! p+ w/ C only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
" F& I5 e+ q- V# w k since about the middle of 2007.& Q( t" m) ^7 Z: T
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! m' g2 x5 v' o9 w
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to( p- ?, K& ^- I! X3 |5 ~* g, e
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
! n! y4 ~* P1 Z% ` largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
3 f" O3 W* P, { poor affordability levels.2 X" j# X, o. v4 c
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
) T7 x- l$ F1 I" \ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 S( U& P7 \5 J! H: D
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
1 q4 _0 K" p* q+ v) ?0 a4 F$ q Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
9 o' t& o* {5 p: f, @" ?; h minimize any downside risks.- e; ^" M& _1 S3 M0 L3 Z: c' ?
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market) D, ?8 @ Y8 Z% D! X4 _
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is1 k8 D4 t$ V- u& |/ I
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early$ m; I' j# Q2 G: v& C: i2 g
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' E0 p+ l% T, ~6 ^4 @& `
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
& I& l. f! A$ W% t( p. T; G; C - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
$ q) X$ Q/ i7 P; [! T' ? Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
5 C; A& g4 W) |/ m, A5 l7 M far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
! q* a# u+ n. {: H8 B reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
/ l& j, \* k9 z; G# b+ c- k ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only! p" E) E9 O+ A8 p( q- \
modestly in recent years.2 ]5 p h' i4 E
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
1 M& S5 l& |: A" L# a" d M! J general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
! C6 A, K! J8 k, |6 I( k spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
5 o; p6 `- j- S6 M& ?# i price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
6 B! u7 \1 b% R( e: m following two years of deterioration.. G9 K" J( B1 [( k4 D! z
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