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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 C7 s$ G' u6 R {- `
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the. |( l) E% b1 a6 u: J
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive0 b1 P0 L" Q; v* r4 r3 ^% R; ]
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 o0 x1 o- @5 }# D4 naccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.+ Z' N, p; I9 y$ d5 w1 @7 l0 F6 j
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
2 O4 b4 _6 a8 c$ J/ S r# Tsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is; }4 z# w# B" `6 r- I4 f' ?+ ?
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability* U y9 F6 M, j- p+ [
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."1 o7 r. i9 n* ]; f# h; ?
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
. p, e& V( A! T6 l9 v, k: I9 _* eworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
( ~" J: ]$ Y( L" \0 G1 Twhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
; u2 b, B. q* s' y, H8 z; [% L( lsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- n0 y. e1 ~! R6 e, W- f The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the# U( V* N% o; L2 J; d! o
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a/ U/ w* E' ]( D9 l, T
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
, \" R8 ^1 u6 P* f2 q. j4 Z- GAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( N, a1 H9 L8 i' |! w$ m( Zstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
' p$ V% K, [( d" u- Hthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
1 M1 e2 E' E" q9 b7 l7 }2 I According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
( k8 l% G. ^! @+ S: zmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in! b2 t+ H; u0 q$ U" F
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at* n& f6 T- u# {2 U n
historically depressed levels.
8 r0 s3 E/ e! W; V Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost( D. h) x3 W/ F. A. c+ ?
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House- n; e/ N E8 e( z& I$ u
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
: [! |8 @1 t% x7 V9 l, Shands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This2 O7 D2 C$ s" Z+ f; D
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
4 Z5 w8 Q8 ^) ^4 [* n) imonths ahead," added Hogue.5 ]' m, T& y* p
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; o6 M* U" B" I: K1 acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary8 P! J, {. u: e7 n. G" W0 e
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
9 _( X5 u( K# c: M% e: ]4 ?' j The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. o, M+ Z9 c" i1 w2 y7 ~8 F8 \4 P
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
" }& s6 e4 i0 V, acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
+ C. p$ \1 }. M" k0 P+ f1 M: O; atakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.3 p, a! l; M6 X
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
A- ]" d1 p; @/ Kbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) [1 L5 E! ^+ ?+ L0 o2 a, A7 Gbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented! I- n- b5 I+ f( R$ ?& Y& v: I8 P+ \
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard3 e3 g# M% j5 G
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
% v) l, X3 F: }7 N. K8 G/ OFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
- y( W& V, t/ U! _' Z. V) d; dcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50' L- G2 s+ _, {: a3 C" k
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
& Q( d. R4 F. i& O* [. ~( ?! \5 l( Q" F- `$ I k
<<
1 s2 L% a4 V( e- ? Highlights from across Canada:$ I7 S& W b! i/ P; T
$ X$ s) A5 L* ^ E - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' z3 t, Z Y# S, v! U* p6 _, P. C* k
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( H8 B5 t6 V% o# n7 M% O
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
! ~( Z& A5 W p) V8 F( g only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track% P, W. T9 H: n, E
since about the middle of 2007.
8 D4 c4 r, Y W/ k - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
0 }: R* H6 _5 o9 L. F$ N8 k frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& x9 v! E. Z: Z3 ~+ o E0 R! K decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still& s' H4 I' n- }7 G$ V8 }' _
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely* @8 Q; I) K! p6 {4 h) }, ~2 ]
poor affordability levels.
( b S r1 l+ u% W - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% k4 T) B. I; I Z3 ?7 h p% W vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and3 t! X. E% c% k/ i9 ~
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.4 {4 I1 w" e" G) P" q. g; E# `
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
$ U$ Q) W/ t, x* m5 Y minimize any downside risks.' l+ S% w: D; F( F! {2 x# _
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
8 G; c+ x7 r0 q" ^$ c conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ J3 T& ^0 O4 \5 F9 ~, y) k7 I6 Z# g; W
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
( A) g/ x+ y1 N- S" v7 p2 ^, \5 L 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
6 T1 N* W" a& M* k! G% X* ]0 ]/ W being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 @5 O% D: l: C" C E3 A
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 h. k$ W* l4 ?3 ^7 l, n, c Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus4 [% ^* \0 S5 e1 g& \/ |
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up S, m1 J5 S1 Y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# @& h# a' g. X3 h7 p& t' r8 o% Q ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only. p6 s. x% c0 I& p
modestly in recent years.. \+ @+ o% N5 h S7 J5 ~, `
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' K5 H& \3 S0 z4 {; l1 h0 V D
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# X9 Z/ ]; C# }. x5 j spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
& Y' F, E" N. v+ ~, K price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability/ f4 H. n, o3 l8 b# v1 Z# N' }7 b! x
following two years of deterioration.
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