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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 u+ a7 W5 u5 ]: ]0 a: k
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the) H8 N9 {* M2 A% o5 n
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
$ u8 S+ d0 V7 _! U- lgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,# O! j- z, B/ \9 D" a7 \$ P: f7 N- X
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
5 U. G$ l6 t: D5 [' ? "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
/ O4 ~, {% c1 |( v i8 B# Xsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
6 T" t# _- q! L7 Gimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability: Q1 m. o5 F! B+ f! s ]
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."2 P* |! T/ T5 b' w4 A+ Q" @
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ ]' j' _& {8 [2 W2 p2 Z3 G' S
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,5 s- ^* F1 z3 }1 f
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 w0 R4 U7 k4 Msustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.* {7 ~1 _4 s H8 G: m5 @ C
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the/ m v6 m( a5 V
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 t3 Z$ v) K: F3 e$ @home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.2 S0 w6 q, X0 S: G9 g" [# g
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
* [$ ]3 N$ y4 f( z: {- z2 ^standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and' m8 ~4 r' \) c8 L* B' k/ B6 ?+ l" K
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.' x9 u8 G$ l* Y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
1 s' n2 M* p6 x2 J7 O( Z+ N9 v/ Lmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
! X0 `% o. n9 k3 A8 s5 L) q! nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
; Y1 c! S( `, M- \1 S. l5 v+ P2 M# ~historically depressed levels.
' ~, m$ X! d+ c& z Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
, Y# }3 C* N: }# mof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
2 Y1 B7 M- o" h) J) Kprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" N$ V1 S9 z+ I9 R& h/ @' t" a, nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 `# v f7 W2 N0 O' k7 g" k n5 Aenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
( B1 s6 d3 v _. tmonths ahead," added Hogue.
' A% p" T( O, B3 J( V) l5 ` RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 n6 H* ?- V0 l3 R4 ?
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
% {8 E2 [! \( R V$ ?6 A1 ]& [7 V# ?42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.6 Y& Y4 ~4 ]% V
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
. ^2 h2 S/ z, ma broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these# c! J8 k" D7 X! b! q8 U
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only! j% R$ D, F1 F. j/ z8 Q( I- S
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 a: w$ @) H3 \0 p7 R; L4 E The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
- [; z$ C& |7 _* d ^& @9 \0 e$ ^based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; Q. E/ ~! `9 hbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
1 o4 w9 ?) Y* N8 V q8 sincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 F5 _( i9 d9 c$ K# W
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
4 \7 V! Z8 Q4 n7 Y( LFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: G- c u: V$ G+ W8 z$ ^7 z# v% p5 I# f
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50' P: I" z8 w$ @3 d& [, n
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.. _ v0 v- } {! y8 F
2 _$ G8 P. n" h8 F7 l: X6 l <<3 p9 d$ O: u: M* b. M5 _
Highlights from across Canada:- U2 Q& C" \7 f5 U
- h B8 g( @5 x8 ?
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has% R; G1 ~" F) p, K# {& ?, Z5 t6 i
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; c, x0 I2 ~: }
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
4 f* I4 @( Q9 E2 D4 s, _ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
# ?% t' P3 T! D" y7 x+ H1 O# n since about the middle of 2007.
. d7 u4 ~! B& S# V2 [ G - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
# U5 P! W9 E; j0 X* Y# \1 d frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to$ w" p8 r) j: H$ P8 W
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' k9 c4 @' h- O4 G largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
! P3 h( `) M1 X$ d+ H poor affordability levels.6 D0 X4 I- d: m+ q( E1 i
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the5 Y% } X0 j6 m/ O5 `9 ~/ ^
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# q$ T! y; [5 k. _- n) R prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.% Q6 Z5 t1 [% H3 Q
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! S$ r2 N4 E) [4 Y! G! z minimize any downside risks.
9 a/ _. b7 Z+ o: i - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market9 w$ E& M2 P" |
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is; S5 m3 O( n- Z2 P1 g' m
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
3 d; \9 r Q$ O" S+ @ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly0 a# D- m1 P' u! e
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
* H" q o. |+ j1 z" S. } ` - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ D4 K5 D ^* \+ U
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! l7 v8 w3 k0 n* z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# l0 {/ a' a' g( b# H1 n V% k% n$ F+ Y0 G reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be2 A, k2 @7 I% O+ B/ w6 s- C; A8 w
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
! V' }+ f% \" l Q0 A; O modestly in recent years.
! N' `2 A8 x8 {8 c- v - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
% @1 ^ o) S I6 n) G: W general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
_2 S* X3 t" S B9 T spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward6 a7 R* V* V, n9 l! I0 Z+ Y9 T% j
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
. U4 n: s# s e. s- F following two years of deterioration." y/ F0 V) m8 J* c% @: X8 N
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