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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
- G2 r' R0 V, X# h- o" p TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
2 p3 I7 Q) A6 j9 Bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! ?6 p) i& d# b+ y6 G
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
; N3 G* Q6 L$ Z7 n- @' \according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. l1 |: ~, U2 f3 S, B# Q0 l/ g& v
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"$ g, G- S) {" ` J0 a
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is) D" F ^6 Z j
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability1 T: e: P6 ]; {+ x6 B+ B
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.": D" W! l) \9 F) v
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
( h1 K9 O: S0 `worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
5 c* u& A3 S* @3 G; ~which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 Z# o& u) ]) ]& ?- gsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.6 _# z5 I! s2 @) ]7 u" {
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the# T* ~/ O, r" c |
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
, E) K8 l# R K2 l9 o: n' `3 Z9 Shome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.7 q/ }8 P# q% s+ b, q
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the5 c. r1 ^2 Y9 D, b# j& u3 L) X4 h
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, m1 X5 B+ i1 othe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent." j8 e# Q4 {3 Z3 Q1 F2 d
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets- Y$ |# q+ \' G E/ e
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
+ [8 j+ c2 ~. d: |* ]+ kthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
@3 v: ^: l) @) ]* `; |historically depressed levels.1 D. o+ C5 M) f% k- `9 P7 P9 F
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost0 B& p' s' |8 ]) c/ ^
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House+ n! f! R7 x1 |; G% j
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the. N7 Q+ K' y6 }* O
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This Q; V0 }$ m' l0 S
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
o3 `* v9 c9 o) D+ ?: M. R9 b" Lmonths ahead," added Hogue.! i, ^+ X% M; e! d4 T7 y
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
/ f A4 \3 ]* { p7 [cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
2 T8 G+ ?9 o4 l- s% I! V( i" u42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 q4 y5 G& s5 @) [
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
! V- F8 M0 x4 `8 q% Da broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 r1 h6 [; B6 e1 A K' b
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only0 Y' j- k0 D8 w2 A# O
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.# [. U- Z& w: O6 R( _( u
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 }. D! R- R0 V( e+ _. F
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property- {2 f, \9 l7 D2 P' P0 _2 W
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented5 r9 H+ c6 d( ^3 V
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard) v, F: j& }( i2 I
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
$ P v, R8 [1 ~For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 D& {5 k. W4 f8 b" M/ f
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
. z# ^- [- U- V' \; V0 P% F3 F* Aper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.) K: C, V N' i# x+ T
+ K9 W$ o# M+ K7 ]) g$ A
<<; u' g5 }1 v" L- d0 z
Highlights from across Canada:
2 k9 W& Z3 X3 g2 @ {
0 R8 \# i6 r! A' z/ y" F q - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has, e" e* B* E" g1 f a3 ~1 j
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
( ^+ B6 h8 D, H9 n | home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound- t8 V7 c. ^2 X& h: i
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track7 c! n6 |; D9 i7 W6 a0 h
since about the middle of 2007.
, X# t% y2 m# U! K$ \! d0 H( P8 A! W1 ~ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the; |4 _/ N% _. j" }/ y
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 K8 E/ m% C Q4 J& }4 O2 ]; ]
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still( j: M$ d" w* Z0 U- V
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
- {* Y& _$ G) _8 d2 N [9 Y0 g$ f poor affordability levels.! ^3 u" v; c& Q9 }$ E
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the1 Q$ y8 z+ D$ L; g4 v; k' M K
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 F/ ?& o4 V1 G1 d7 u+ B prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.7 \. y1 V, j9 J) g
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to) H0 M. \- S7 `. B! o$ B
minimize any downside risks.8 t" T6 R; J; M6 a
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market" Q4 i$ u& ]3 {
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is' B8 L* @ Y: F0 s
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ |; D; l0 e2 I. B7 L+ o2 m 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly& m9 c8 a' y& t) B' v
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
, Z4 |; E$ W# c9 I* i: s3 @ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in: ?/ _+ w5 m i. Z
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 ` R; ^7 f0 v( R) n9 r' t( D
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 m" b5 `5 w; c
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be4 L% t; q/ U b( V9 Y
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" G0 J; w4 f6 V modestly in recent years.
7 F9 q# i l+ z( U - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
, X: V& z. |0 g1 d4 T+ { general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# s" E$ i* f& G# K: D/ ? spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward* y! z$ o$ c' N) I
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
3 s. V. |# Y7 M4 Y7 ^. J4 ?' } following two years of deterioration.( S D$ N c) i- p0 j* m' q
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