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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
! a6 Y3 R* V) Z' G6 B. E% ^ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
9 Q& a( ]! `: B$ G* d; `( j9 Mmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive x. G* B! C Q: _4 Z& K2 G
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,, q% S6 w* M5 y6 f
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.. q" C0 q& q% Y7 S' [3 x
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"2 z4 }; z& Q7 g, | G' `0 W
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
+ D) z% @4 \- F( f# X$ Gimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability( Z; A/ d1 c! E# u( g
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! k% m& g( v, Q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
- g9 }& ?' m) \% Fworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
2 L: n' ?6 F( q, @which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have" A) E# X3 a0 J. L+ J) A4 ]- {
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. z9 O9 |) H( C* m+ Y. a$ f, C
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the7 e% c3 u" F: K! W
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a- }) u+ I9 K7 [" a$ W0 W# C
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.9 h0 G6 W3 X" ^& H2 q/ k
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
0 n: \/ d7 Q1 `: z7 rstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) a H8 Z C8 _- P: Fthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 p/ e& a2 o( m
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
6 S1 h: t* w: r( @may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
. @# U/ d4 X% [& \8 Z, r9 T& uthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 m. n% j' V9 ^) i" q" A0 ~
historically depressed levels.
( S" A7 K+ I* q. m- d3 i Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 Q" A2 m2 a Y6 w7 b9 {$ P
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
% t" O# f/ A1 f3 a' u' i2 ^prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 X4 r @8 e0 g( x3 g; ^
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& P4 v- f! T4 ?3 B5 C1 B8 x0 }enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
* c3 r1 z: M6 O: @8 e! A, b A8 z' fmonths ahead," added Hogue.
3 Q4 K8 w- T( { b( V4 A RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest, c/ s' n; I, d& S; H, u& F' d& a
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary1 N' S$ E; d$ f: e4 s& ]/ l9 z
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.- {. G6 A. a! N7 B: k# w \
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for; a3 X2 Y5 |9 t R
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these( Q. X7 h' z- M' _' a6 w, w7 Q
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only o+ q7 y( l+ ]8 F' l
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.( Y( f' E' K; e& f( D9 G' A+ ^
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' s$ E8 A0 t `* p6 \) qbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
: u; o7 l$ ]8 s4 n* T; F; vbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
* z Y( m& H! E1 v$ _including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
+ z* f" g) @5 \condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
: N- z5 U, a( e# _' e. KFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
9 D' U. e* F* \/ q% g" G. e. ucosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50+ e* L; i* K" P4 ^* a" X3 A# h
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
' L0 }- [" g* W! u
6 d1 s% ~7 F7 P3 f3 V& E, P$ K. I <<* V/ O+ w; i* e* O2 `4 Q
Highlights from across Canada:
. g9 V# p1 z4 o# d
5 d% b& r$ J1 d+ y - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has& h/ S% J( }) N
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing, s' P; c k: W# T8 d
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
+ Z: l( G6 V$ A. K3 H only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track2 ~+ k2 \: u/ V
since about the middle of 2007. u# L3 k% i- p$ ^3 j" D" Z- ^2 z; C
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
0 v' R& B5 P4 S' s7 E: h frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
2 u3 e" t8 z8 u decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
: E1 F0 @9 v) c* `* ~' \1 k- E largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely% B, M! B0 e3 O; R* `
poor affordability levels.* K2 ^8 }! r( l- j9 c2 |' z+ q0 l
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* q3 ~ f+ M8 u/ J6 i3 F, v# y3 ?. M7 X
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
. c B9 g" q. A5 W' r3 [ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
8 u1 E1 B2 { U1 h1 l Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
+ v" i" T& _& j# B minimize any downside risks.+ D0 Z( E- B; y4 S( D6 O1 q
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market, S. p! Z7 v- U# J
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
4 f2 y9 J" ]5 s1 l- m( w unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' r2 |* S' f/ X( ^- L6 Q! o 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly @& p, z6 X! t4 V: b
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.3 N% ^7 M% D; K8 e' c- t' k- F
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in5 l! U8 F* U3 M
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
5 f* Q6 C; z" h8 `3 o; y8 h6 J far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
a- h& k/ a+ e2 U3 y reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be* }. e. G9 r+ \) e- t2 P
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
) L Y" m7 ~$ o' B3 ? modestly in recent years.
, `' Z+ P/ q2 R3 D - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
$ W. L* I5 k7 E5 ~( l0 q# f- N4 c general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot6 `( X/ L0 u' X" U- S7 Z
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward q g+ V2 {! r
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! c& V9 \. ` e+ k
following two years of deterioration.
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