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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
$ H4 L& }; v: r2 p TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
: x8 C" ^0 D% G7 c. Y) o$ `+ N& ^middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive% `. s% v% |' R2 d( @$ ]
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
}+ K2 N0 C6 b, a" Eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.% M0 n4 b1 _0 G
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"0 g* x# K' C; e2 Q
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is( W- m/ K7 e. Z$ j& p0 \: z% M) O
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
8 ]" H! g& _/ A* [measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."% J! g; ^. |* u& A+ u* o* T
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
]+ H; n, }$ q% _' t" |worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,# B8 h% k0 r0 @0 p# {0 m$ n
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
8 H( n) x# z& Y4 `/ V* Jsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes." X* `. W6 o" d7 y' H: y
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the V) U% I' d7 r2 o
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 _ E- ?2 y! b8 x. ^. shome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
+ E% P& X- ^- I0 Q, GAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( n c- H( b" H$ e/ `) ustandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and2 U1 q @+ H# O; f
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
) i/ ~6 o* z- e' K/ l1 _, O# o According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets" T( K2 \* x+ g/ M
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
; p( X, e7 S# b, qthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at' C7 D& |/ Z( G( ~% X
historically depressed levels.0 d- K( e4 F% z+ d: }, S, j
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 n$ |: M3 e5 e, Vof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House4 I& |1 l6 x) y5 N+ }6 n0 k
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
) x- u- |4 g2 f$ @hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
' e6 D- c; s" Genormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the- {4 W8 W" g8 |; u6 H9 K
months ahead," added Hogue.
: r) s6 Y: z8 ?) ^* q" e) T! B" y RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest5 o- g# ]4 d8 R7 h" ?. Z3 z
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary7 V: n( v( x: q$ X1 g
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
5 `4 ^4 j p" w- D The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
1 w. s% ^; U- m4 |) o0 Oa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 O3 r, J `! O* L
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only9 g I/ [; n, f& ~7 M
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.* I: |+ `2 {6 H! y( y1 f- g
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" c/ F1 Z U8 S. P$ V& _7 u9 @# n
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
# o0 z8 E# T6 |5 H2 Y; N8 ebenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
. m9 j( s! T* L% `# E7 U Bincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard9 K7 q! `7 a( n8 S3 T; U d
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.3 `4 [5 F d Q
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
+ O9 ^: ? |) ]! ?8 c) Z% z' jcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50' {' a, Q- M+ T2 g0 P) F3 m
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.! ], t. ?8 S2 `
6 W" k4 X9 s' G1 J& `) K& j0 U9 ?$ z <<9 y: D: f, \+ B" |0 j+ N
Highlights from across Canada:+ Y, {9 s5 Q' ]
, {0 D7 H& r" t" P; c) t) ~1 h3 F
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has: R$ d. ^9 s0 M$ v
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing) u F6 r1 w% r; l& [' w) n
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
# l/ a9 d3 J: b6 \: b. E$ q only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track3 m+ b& p8 [0 s, ^9 N) k
since about the middle of 2007.$ C" g1 j. c/ G+ [, C
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the0 g- F6 @; J% h: \
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to9 p& Z' S. N& e
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 ^/ P7 [( E# \ e( C' s f largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
) W) R, |$ B0 \ poor affordability levels.
1 B3 U7 N8 y5 O - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the- T* B) \/ Q2 j5 }- u0 Q
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
& K+ ` C) ?' _; X! S prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; v f9 o5 v- S8 s( h! J3 g Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
+ Z- C# X( e# d a! ?& Q1 d minimize any downside risks.
5 n& ^2 `; |4 E1 h; i4 j R - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
' k# U! q/ {+ `5 d4 P& Q conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is: X- w- ^. `3 R) Q/ z l1 M" ~
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ O7 X& ]* H, ~6 {0 l) I: r4 p 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
, W/ U) V/ b( s& U being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& C* ]" T. o7 Q+ \6 b7 ]
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% o& w9 L5 W: d
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ _$ [+ V5 k/ D( o& I2 x5 @! ~8 r" P# ~ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* c' R6 L5 k! S- L% Z
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be& `8 D$ z+ n1 l B' U4 g6 e% \
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only7 t% P' p( @- e) a5 o% n
modestly in recent years." w/ G7 r- H. N, w7 q, I
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the5 v [2 [7 l: W9 o# E( f2 y* }
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
. N$ ?+ H+ ?; l4 j( e: E+ ^1 W spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward& m) X$ e% D; T* A
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 o* }) R2 \* D0 O$ V- n) ` following two years of deterioration.
- t! p: |$ |6 S, h) M7 [2 M >> |
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