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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( ?5 v8 U- W+ C6 X
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' F& H5 q3 F( p3 k4 _' _
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive$ H7 q" o6 T3 J9 m" O9 W5 R
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,4 b) `4 Z! e* B- }5 q
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
( e, z) H- m1 e [ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 X$ Q6 W# L, I' y5 U5 L
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is& B9 w! ?! E% @+ b* h
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability l5 }9 E) H8 N
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 i5 d! ?! J9 s
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is1 t7 @) J+ g$ s }" t
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,+ e; J1 ]4 Z$ H! c4 b
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
" Y& u) W$ g$ Asustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.+ q9 `( z; j5 d
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the7 H u( W) M" b
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
: y) o4 V) N3 o! Ghome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.! U" y! P; p% a/ M3 |
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the1 [ p: _. w- M' h1 i- O
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and& T1 y% _2 \# e: Q ^' A7 P" ~% x" N
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
7 d8 Z( q( ^- K4 J L According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: B0 ~: X4 S( J( d& d, e6 Q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in: e: `& r2 G7 V: L. b% y8 j9 b" Q# d# l1 V
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at1 K/ y& a& C- Y7 L( n3 v9 Y
historically depressed levels., @; s8 U0 a# k- m/ t4 V; c
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, m1 {" T* R& w. g% J1 ~+ n
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House$ q7 e6 Q# A; G; t+ O6 F& q
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
+ @# e% v; U1 T) c: |8 h% ?1 mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This- J" T- ?, T' o8 N
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the2 W6 A4 H6 k' Q5 s# w; Q* k1 M! k" Z
months ahead," added Hogue.# Q; F/ h: e+ E7 w
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest: K' g2 M O$ r. ?6 m, L+ n2 N
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary& y. E/ I, B5 X* J: S# z5 n: x) Y5 d
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
6 y- K1 q0 r8 D" m ?+ M The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) d) y8 P8 t' |) a/ [: y* ?a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
3 h4 I3 G0 c- q C9 a; t/ Ecities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
6 N# a: M! n, J7 otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.) Y3 N* ~3 a' E2 E' [
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
* N: K9 ^* A# vbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) }. Y2 n- ?! B: Qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# ?" g: l; n* b( a8 ^
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
+ i! v) @! }8 c7 P; A. ?condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.1 Z' m3 D: B1 U4 s' R
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
4 A8 v6 R4 h6 A vcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 U$ }% F; g5 G4 @3 [0 z
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income. Y, I. f5 t9 b" J$ F
1 F# x3 G5 k3 ~# u3 H/ S
<<# `3 p* X2 x4 M6 f
Highlights from across Canada:4 c* V: i% @, ?) ?) q" f
3 u; ]) j1 _2 S - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
# |0 W, X" O; u) j intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
) Y7 M' Q5 H% e% J4 P' ~; d home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 K) f8 d* V1 M2 M5 Z3 \+ k/ F only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track, `5 Q; ]/ ~! I# g' C
since about the middle of 2007.
4 o% [) n, [+ j - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the {: o# u0 y8 r( L! o# g7 H8 Y
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& g5 @8 ~( V G% m) q$ t decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still: l9 B) b. t0 e h5 [
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely' @1 n; ^. a s6 d2 V- D8 Q
poor affordability levels.( G! v% A& a6 F I3 E
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ Z a; t6 c. ^9 i vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 Z/ v( |' p6 [+ {5 j6 m0 A
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; Y$ T+ R% X& N q! [/ W Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to& S' ~ S5 |- q& H; h+ v- e5 h
minimize any downside risks.
D4 p- }2 j; w) H4 i; r - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
i1 {% h9 P; b conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 R, p- T% i# A0 {9 P5 h3 w7 f unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early. | d* a4 n! }
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly5 S" t3 x; K7 c# e
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
0 B- e, P, d% A1 ~" P - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! q- ?) ^+ J6 H; H: F3 B" T" A Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
. J4 g' d) d3 T5 u! A r& a7 P( _ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
( h0 X l. [3 ~! D! J6 [" t& Y4 ~4 |' @ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be& _$ q7 V. M# r' z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only6 B" y7 w* h5 v
modestly in recent years.5 P3 m- C3 r9 p* F4 O8 e
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the% O# W' D$ x5 V( ]2 T
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
, |! K1 p& O; z spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ B( j" e+ Q/ ~& P' i5 @$ S0 k
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 e0 C! m; @1 s& E
following two years of deterioration.2 J- z5 {8 C8 O: f; B, s
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