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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 8 C+ b$ M# z9 c% ^8 {$ |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 W0 ~: v5 N) c7 C8 D' F! D8 Cmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
' L4 Q# S) `+ }# m* ^% @) t' ~gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 c# u$ D) f5 a& Naccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
6 X: N. I7 G! b2 L/ i% Q "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
9 J' t9 ]; ?2 @& M2 gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
8 z! t9 A$ |. z" l- a- W9 T( ]improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 U* F: j7 j+ _2 x
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."2 [, g+ G B, t( x( f9 n) Z6 A
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
% S6 C) \9 U1 ]' ]% q% ^9 b+ zworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,1 W& C, z2 [2 V+ v$ V" ]
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
* F2 R; }' P" C& p0 P* @2 Z! tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.# h p& _2 N8 i. k5 Z
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the0 g% X9 v0 K8 G
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
9 O% ]' z5 ~& P2 Thome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 M2 W& K, x) Q! N0 X$ e) a9 ]& TAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the- d$ ~9 \5 |. H' A1 s0 ?! j$ v
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) I) t- }5 e- o' Q$ \3 ethe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent., P4 N" H8 U# ?
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
& w0 ]! ` v/ Y- f5 ~: i' Gmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in- ]. e9 p- i! g1 P! {
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# ]9 u$ X! n" o0 u
historically depressed levels.
$ Z& `) Q U6 w Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost) N+ M# e; C" X+ ~- }$ m% O$ n
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House5 |2 b" s: x+ s; p
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
- H$ Q* r2 z7 G7 X% E, Uhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
/ Y$ K S! B& g+ O1 [3 i2 \enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the2 {8 G) ~* Q3 s. O6 `% v
months ahead," added Hogue.4 I% u. U0 a: A+ I' D9 H
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest# w: J+ a1 c$ k( Q! o( F* o p
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
, q3 _0 {4 p9 w) k- Y8 k9 e0 q+ `42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
! F4 Z) F7 C) t The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for; Q j \% U% c0 d0 @
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these2 m9 t+ T! M, C0 B; ^9 s5 `
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
: t# u+ D$ `3 T" W5 Y, ptakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
1 Z& T+ ^: |9 U3 l) E/ { The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is' j: r* [1 q+ v& q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
3 t& O9 s; q) r, Bbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
; x \8 s7 b' F# O5 ?including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard4 Q; N4 t9 K% L7 R
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.3 q) S* T9 V' G3 c0 Z) |5 v. ~
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 A3 ]9 S- u7 T J, U
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ Q, A/ r) J+ ?+ C
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.( g2 h: L9 ?% l( \3 H0 v
( V* B( B' M8 e- E" m9 n <<' \' t; v0 z h
Highlights from across Canada:
" `; m9 Z2 `( k. b8 d6 a+ W# _# j p: p9 t f5 M6 Y4 K6 y" w8 r
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
5 E% E3 a$ X# a' x intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
4 A( D# s; e% G( b# L3 \. S5 S home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
5 l% x6 y S! L2 B4 k) i only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
& {, w1 g1 `4 m since about the middle of 2007.0 v n8 A( I; S2 f7 j) Z/ Y! _! h
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
$ A1 [! [+ P5 m+ T8 O" ?- ~ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to( D+ J0 c( W! o( t6 [
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
7 l. K! G6 _$ q+ e3 [ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
W' [: L6 g2 _ ]! D4 ? poor affordability levels.6 d6 a. `+ |# C! R
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
+ K* V) @9 S1 R- b* {4 m* O vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and+ u# m& h2 D1 ]
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.# b+ Q' m: z' h* b( q
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
6 M5 H( V/ N! X, v! N minimize any downside risks.. X# P+ Z* p. V- e6 ~" q
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
3 w6 I' P6 r2 m$ v2 k% B' V conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
# T( D: b% I9 J# {6 \ C unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
- b$ Y9 q3 I# d5 L; T* }7 m: R 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 u4 G- V5 S' `3 ]9 O
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 d4 N1 @, \: M0 d* z4 O6 M - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
: m2 i5 m5 `1 r) C. Q3 v Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus( r5 Z6 E$ C5 Y, ?
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
" K" X" n) Z; i5 j* n; T- t0 W3 } reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 \ I! ?5 E* x- ?1 O4 U: x
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only' C3 {# o. v6 G% Z' E* m8 C
modestly in recent years.
+ i/ w+ i) O. M - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the$ G/ a+ L* D( Y! K+ n3 _
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
* q& x' T% n5 h' r3 }8 f+ u" v/ f spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
) d6 t+ t5 N7 P w$ {" h& m2 @ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability* V0 u$ W4 z, x- i! k }: d* s+ J
following two years of deterioration.2 m. s1 I9 |, L& k. v& }
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