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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ) ^9 U0 \/ d2 T# U0 M
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
1 g/ v8 p3 c4 C) `9 x1 X2 E) W ^. S2 `middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
. ?+ e. _( a' Xgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
( a' S4 W [+ {8 M; uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.' w7 a7 X, O$ k9 @
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
9 }) U, n: o% X7 U! o9 fsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
2 o: D+ a$ Q) O! m+ @( L$ kimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability* a& i8 g9 W7 r2 u
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" d7 P( ]8 z; T; J( p
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is" J: @7 @/ v1 l8 g& P1 k7 c. @
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
. I* w; p7 a! ~0 B. f6 F2 Hwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, R4 ^3 B n; p! rsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
! f0 m6 {% J7 F3 r* x' } The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
8 u) ?6 g& \: Vproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a1 b' s! t8 `' g1 `
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ l0 b/ Y( d7 N2 X y( Z& lAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
/ {# T4 o# t4 x: {standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
& s+ e' \$ v) j9 M. {2 `: `; M) bthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
0 u8 x2 Q- X. k# P According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
# W5 d( n+ _) ~5 p) ~8 [ F$ l% Umay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 Q# E* i7 G. g
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at/ D8 V" O& e! r @
historically depressed levels.
; D. S* @9 ~' Q0 n1 z9 v* U Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost4 J j8 l9 U* }( z7 A/ b
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ @# f- W" B; ^7 e9 Aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the$ C0 z4 h% S5 J8 }
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 B+ g' d2 b+ \. R3 \
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the1 Y' D2 s! r7 {, \
months ahead," added Hogue.' f' r. @$ ~) y& E% B5 _; I1 X+ h
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest9 j+ B2 R. Y' k5 i2 K6 k* ~0 ?
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" `$ [. w& l/ `
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 q3 H' v+ b# V8 {+ u The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
* S' x" j* G: v; Aa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these# J8 z) Y4 n: o: |, r
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 r+ P9 _$ s# Btakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
5 [4 x" d8 `. }( a The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is/ G7 I8 o' w& F h& L, E
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
( y4 s4 _1 M( B$ O/ a8 a' I0 kbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 ~9 I+ E" D. _; C! w uincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard; X$ ~8 y; }0 u e6 @
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
/ `+ C9 g7 T7 {For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership. X, X* c* O& S d# C, `: C
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
4 h. H6 t2 J: A8 a( a1 A" q% Yper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
^6 E6 w5 K$ A" g& z; P4 }' Y. B3 e) N# j: L/ D7 i
<< ^: D8 o2 h/ W) N( H; y
Highlights from across Canada:7 W4 K# i) t& u, y% S, |
9 M( f$ d! R" O& L Z
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- S$ b# w4 N& T2 C intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 a! l0 p* ~% i- Y# P3 t( r home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& Y2 S% |1 n; H9 J' p+ f only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
5 `8 |, d; d4 s since about the middle of 2007.
, R: ^$ {" t8 D/ Z+ D - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
. t8 M& R8 Z, H+ f% | G frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 i# y( n# G0 m# x0 \. G
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% t0 K9 I, }% s1 d" } largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
8 Q, {) I9 ^ x poor affordability levels.
' H, B& w2 ^, H2 g+ J - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the, _+ F3 B5 Q. i, E- K% l) g/ h! a
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
" m: _1 R4 t! I' c) I% F prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
7 l5 p7 g( w! y7 x- F7 O; Y' z7 i% u Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
4 h- ~5 G$ [( a/ V w minimize any downside risks.
0 A8 P2 N# R+ [% O - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market% z9 ]. W9 p: p8 m r. e
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
4 [0 C/ s& d0 C. V9 E+ l unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( D% ?* L: c7 P: W( V
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
. c3 {( D5 a# }1 n3 v: M being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.% T5 {$ a( a) j3 m2 r
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
" n( D- y: J2 K' P2 E5 f7 [; c Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
* \$ K/ l) y4 h6 R: ^9 I far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
0 S, ~: G, @( \8 ` reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 W- R* O) Q3 d% y
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
1 |6 Z7 f% z& B( z modestly in recent years.
) q6 h1 v' ], b# D& X- \, g9 w- E - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, I( C+ g% k& W
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot, F- Q1 \$ B H7 ?3 \, i* F
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward2 e: b6 `( I0 l* {+ Q
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability* @3 B/ f) h p' E: C
following two years of deterioration.
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