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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
6 ^! b! L( F! T9 u TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the: c9 X' a) x" H& n) H
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
$ T3 Y/ h3 G8 l& {, S: ^# q% U' C/ ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 `1 e6 g9 `) t* paccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
5 {3 k. D. z1 n2 Q) ] "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
) `0 \( a( j0 X5 L: g8 |# t5 Fsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is/ B0 \+ C8 w; e1 M+ }! _+ s" i7 q
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability+ D* c1 O* E+ B8 c
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
/ K8 Q8 N: ~3 Q9 `8 D y RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
7 O7 y: m; w# e( I, M9 }worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
" g/ l! H: D" V* Q, ^9 |: Owhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, H8 C3 [8 t2 `: ], Tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.* I1 L$ l6 O" m. z9 C
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( R* f5 p- [: X/ L7 P$ f5 ~6 Iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a m5 r8 H& ]5 k+ b0 D* G5 _6 r
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( B! G+ l1 f7 k- S9 s. N7 }, P; B
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
4 W% W2 a" y' b& M) H3 O: D; c- Q# Mstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, B% R, x2 o) y ^5 V `/ F+ E7 }the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.) j* r1 G) X: |5 P2 }
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
+ Z0 M# D+ q7 M9 ?may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in E& d! f) ]0 ^4 v7 N. ^
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at! ~& l/ `) W( z! R. R0 c6 E, p
historically depressed levels.
" H$ X( n4 x1 ~& T3 R/ [+ P Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 i: v( W# l: L, A2 N- N) U8 l$ w; @2 dof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House0 v* t! i( H2 K$ W- {
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& A; ~/ T- g. c$ Rhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
* T! R5 x0 g5 T7 G0 ^enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the: O. K# M: D0 F# n
months ahead," added Hogue.
, R9 j9 l7 l( j RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
1 g7 Y ]9 x4 W/ Y8 ]* pcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
6 [; L- a3 r! }42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
" g5 o- _+ m! G1 p The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
5 S$ D5 _ I3 w0 z7 H8 q6 Ga broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
, X3 M# c( H- g/ C! ~, k2 K1 Hcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
- g# s8 K! @5 i+ v X; etakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.' L8 ?- g0 ~' q' p$ {
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
5 n" D( `0 s* R! |! F2 wbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
8 a) i t, u6 b& E% N) Gbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented/ h/ E, u& L* L. d; F
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
2 ^- r# Y3 ^& H. Q9 y- _% J! W5 w+ Tcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.: i( k' U! v$ D8 @
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership) o, w9 F6 |: L
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
: w! J$ O Q: H7 l, vper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
& C$ \* H( W. I/ i: V6 ]2 g: i; g" c
<<6 j" m' T. e- P) ~! a0 n/ ?1 P
Highlights from across Canada:
& s5 v. V s5 l* V, d' c: f9 ^' q: v3 @# R
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has, M( m/ c, b4 p& Q5 u; h' W
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ S; y1 g( N' v# I$ U7 N) C; | home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: E @, h$ o: g- h; g
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: { G* \8 T* `6 a2 y2 k0 c( D since about the middle of 2007.6 W9 a) k G& g, ^( g
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
, V/ T9 T* P0 j6 | frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
2 a- H# \/ N' c3 O9 Y2 R decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
9 i: x& k+ J( P8 a largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
3 Z' l5 W4 X' ^, Y4 e9 K: X poor affordability levels.
. Y i3 U# O% U' { - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
5 W7 I0 G3 Z5 w5 V4 C+ k vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and1 S& a$ H4 Q: @
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
9 T* }, D: J+ a' h# `0 G Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to% ]& f% U3 O# R% m0 @
minimize any downside risks.
8 K A& i; J3 l% L4 |7 M - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market: T! n1 K3 q' Y- s6 T N! e, G1 R5 C
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is4 ^; _" v/ M* b7 I) F
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early/ ~4 `: D1 r& @! n
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly( n" S" n! J5 L
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.$ i: e; h; M m0 |; e9 {. o
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- r0 W G2 Z: x. {1 p: G Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
3 A6 s; J/ I: I4 s1 q9 a far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- N% w, \8 b) i5 o- l/ v5 T8 j
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 k; i& D* u. t' p$ L
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only$ j( N0 _% Z( b# w0 u( M
modestly in recent years.
$ W+ l: P1 n" N* ~( N - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
3 B& ?2 D) c" C- O general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
; c- N8 k) _/ g/ H8 K" d8 [4 B* ^) z spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward) E4 e" ^' s: r. s
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
- ?; j0 _' f$ h3 I R U following two years of deterioration.) Z4 I- c! _2 C" ^+ ~
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