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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC % V! `! M7 a- x6 ]/ p/ d
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
* A2 j* S5 |! k! s3 Imiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive7 p+ V5 Q1 O3 g
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,& \& q# T2 e ^% r2 ~4 h& K. Z
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.2 \5 f) {, |& b6 f0 |
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
* p S$ g i& Q) [said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is! S4 t) l9 s( N( J( |; I
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
7 c' q4 y! s0 S/ t0 g) b9 O3 kmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 k! c1 z3 |$ p+ X& S7 y& x1 c5 Y, L RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is3 `0 a8 A1 Q9 U5 T6 x& [) d
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- k( |$ T, ?' p+ V) q* x
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 [# T. Q3 Z& i& g! Z
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.! ^" |; }. ]& V7 J* b
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& L( O% N3 m4 @' t4 B5 `$ J1 _9 T' L1 C
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a6 P% Q: u) k2 W3 A9 C4 r5 ^
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
3 S X2 g6 x5 Z' pAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
% _. d8 l+ l8 V/ \. ^. _% k+ mstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ H7 E! C- r& x4 z$ h( U6 R
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 P- W% _# l4 Z: {% y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets C" U# _& H3 m- p& J
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in+ t5 U$ \3 H ^1 a j8 x( T
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) e8 r5 @- i, V! Z6 v% [1 ahistorically depressed levels.
9 N. e2 i/ h7 p$ b Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost7 l6 B. L; n3 q' Y" T6 K
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
6 ]4 c' y: f# e# h4 }. w; u3 Xprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, c( a" j* W2 D2 d @: ~
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This2 C7 b) [, u6 X) M5 [
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
% f: C, f2 G/ j# h a3 x8 @months ahead," added Hogue.3 @) ?) E& V; o3 ?+ _
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% e, S( l% s( D8 k7 k) c- R* q: E
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
; z( {. c% R* [" e42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# D" X! E6 k# L6 M1 j: K The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for' |$ O2 V( t$ R- O) P/ \6 u
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: n( G2 H; Z" k& W+ G( Gcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; g) f/ e, ?, ~) otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.3 W9 V1 q) c2 H" X
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
9 ], s: [% u6 a% A8 N) e3 C0 Hbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property ~2 F" ?2 A3 ^2 D: r) J) C# ~' N
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
+ P' \' H! X. l, jincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
- v) L) Z2 o/ z! O5 P4 n3 pcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.# _5 r9 D' H- \5 I9 A& b
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership; a4 C8 F+ f) T! w# e: Y2 u
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
% N1 t+ u+ i4 nper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
1 [7 _8 v0 G5 a9 n+ O
# V6 J+ u6 ~2 b/ p <<4 o& }! S# D7 `' v/ f1 ?
Highlights from across Canada:
. n3 x! B8 G& ~* G" R/ F& A
; I9 L# h ~% i - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ o* n' E" \+ q V. a' z intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; D" t- W7 t/ O home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% z/ y: a2 S) O1 L) U only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track% h3 H1 S. D9 S! Q, u' Q. O
since about the middle of 2007.' W# }+ ]9 \7 P' h( K) P* d
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
4 t8 J/ I; k% D& V. O+ J; P. M/ }7 s0 K frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to7 t- z) y5 g0 b# e4 k# j) E
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
3 L7 z) ]$ S. v3 i9 k# N) y" P& c largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely; L c% u2 E+ b% o
poor affordability levels.
2 E/ v% C" k" Q+ Y! Q - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the# l* J# C' q* P1 j7 p* X, i1 S; p
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 Z3 @, w8 w3 u
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 ^3 l9 u6 h( e' G Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to3 M/ C3 w7 l9 F& e2 J
minimize any downside risks.
/ ?) V: B1 m& u& l( R3 o - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
5 T, e+ L( N' X6 T% l conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is: j* @5 u; ~/ n5 K. v" y, |
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early; |0 ^. @2 L9 ?+ Y; j' S" Y. X4 {
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% E( q8 Y I9 a/ e+ Y7 x, d being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
! ?$ k9 h C; C; v+ G( J A" w: S7 t - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% }- D1 V& o( i, F# @" m
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus/ _, o- F5 l J; o) W* Y3 m/ S
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. P! f4 \$ R4 t/ w; m1 o3 ` reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! ^" a; I. t" [* O$ c ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ m% T- `# t7 S9 H/ S, V% k& d2 ~ modestly in recent years.
8 G7 g# S2 I& {% Q# h2 C; Q - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the3 m6 u* S; U) N' o7 L3 _% ?
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot2 o+ P0 _2 v4 N. `3 J( X; j2 H* s
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
7 D- f2 K* N4 G( | price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 p' v: u* y. Q" T following two years of deterioration.: b2 P% g0 G& f3 Q* x: h
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