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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( _& N% F) m6 ^8 T3 A- j, X TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the. N$ O: V# c, S$ `) |+ `
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* s/ p# w, f0 ngains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,; D; x4 B; j" H- u6 R* n
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, H: @& g' Q3 E% h9 Q2 K3 J2 {1 i# ` "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
" L0 R i* K- {) v& ]! z; R4 rsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is0 J& |. _8 H0 |5 y4 d
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& D: H* w0 |7 |7 `measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
c' W3 j0 E- Y# ?8 ?/ K RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' J- `! l# I, ^- G8 ^) o5 r4 ^
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
8 ^3 |. t" _, C @* l+ i+ mwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
^2 l! j5 ?$ f1 R1 Dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
! W7 d- t/ H+ h7 q, D The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the+ m* M4 }- a& L( V7 ~ n
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
) d5 O( ^+ _0 x" F: H- V' X, _home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ v/ w9 E0 R; S/ F
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( V2 G/ n& U5 X( _8 i$ w/ |% bstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and* N: H8 {, E) f! S Q6 ]& _
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
% m* ]* g2 p- F4 J1 Y9 c" V" x According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets1 L& a. }( D) l
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in. A# v+ t6 w) ?% k' w* t; f
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
: R2 e+ i! p R3 }* h) [0 Ehistorically depressed levels.
( D( }1 e- q/ W5 r+ Z% G7 ? Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 k6 Q7 |' U7 K2 x# U t4 r2 o# aof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House: L8 d/ w( C1 I- X" W
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the6 ~: i$ r% ?8 p
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This8 o6 ]: _9 a2 M' J- A3 W# L! U
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
+ N, I! |- m7 X# l: ^months ahead," added Hogue.
$ [* R# w/ @- E- O RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
. C' @* `! V# Q2 S% w9 ncities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
8 [2 J9 d! ~" ~9 z0 J42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.* b# n2 `( @* ?6 R# S& J3 L
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for$ a9 G$ r( d$ X1 W& ?
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ @* j, R7 F M# U+ bcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only3 W, l: O' X0 a' @: G
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.5 D* M1 y* H1 c( |" T r' n
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is/ c, _0 u4 J8 L7 p
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
( T/ a4 [7 p" Y. A1 Kbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
: a+ r! F% m& y/ Z+ eincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
2 H" A6 R( e3 J7 P: D# ^) \1 K8 Gcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
+ b F6 a" Y5 b/ v- T- F2 MFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
0 J9 p) T, [! v0 [6 Ccosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ C7 \( X9 x% ]1 b' S9 l3 l
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income./ ?" v% k4 |. T5 k- x* m
1 {2 m. _2 L; i1 [" Q& p <<
, N) E0 ^- R$ d9 V9 k( F Highlights from across Canada:/ t! x: f# `: P- R1 t) m$ @2 }: K
7 ^8 A! \/ y- p" a9 J) u$ G
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has7 ]* t ]+ f# z% n6 j; P! B1 p1 y
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ K5 ] d2 s- d. m
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
# Z2 A2 R8 f; W/ Z% l" z only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
o e* \; o; B7 I$ ]* T+ U since about the middle of 2007.6 T4 u# |( p2 L7 X% R
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the1 `5 l8 I& p0 V t9 E% S& X7 |
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 Z+ c4 u4 H6 o( e/ p8 f
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still" p* I3 u( Z* l1 a0 L* Y
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely! r/ d- }9 p ]5 ?& d" ?
poor affordability levels.
0 h# `5 C( Y/ l2 r5 ~ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% j$ W) ^7 n1 t. j& \ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
2 Q8 J' H( ^$ S( T) ]. P, g prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
5 i8 y. Y; u( J ~" H Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
' x+ _/ O1 P2 W minimize any downside risks.: Y( q7 R1 h' X1 P# A3 u v
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
6 j1 @* R# z3 |8 E# h2 n9 h conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
' ^) l. q9 A, P3 [; D unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
6 @* ^4 P2 W( _( Q1 a' K1 Q 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
& w0 d) _/ R! p& _8 G( Q+ h, c being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.' P* x$ A5 \6 a) m$ `5 R
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
7 G8 @( `0 C5 }: Q- d Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus% ~$ k0 o2 s4 n; C
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
6 v2 B5 E7 t, E; }6 g* O+ _3 g reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be& m& {$ U- v8 g$ w
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 C9 ~0 j9 ~. V* Y5 V6 _2 P modestly in recent years.: M2 i7 e! N$ b/ i! @3 m
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the# b s f- e2 L) W
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot. ], { B* Q1 w& B+ b
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
3 F' e% x4 W# {' @0 i' ~& ~+ p price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
5 u/ X/ ~# H# \8 q% [% u$ X following two years of deterioration.
) a6 j2 {( G4 a+ B V >> |
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