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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - e% `' @- Z3 \, v5 w0 d% n
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
' t! }8 a) |& y. ~/ Fmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
/ @* y( n& H4 p" F2 t6 pgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- A, ~5 z% }" ~- d0 r* A
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.3 @& t1 a% ?1 l! R8 a
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"9 N% A& K. C! b( }2 E3 c9 \% b" n
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
5 ^$ F8 u! O" B% @$ timproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
# K/ Q& G$ G3 K6 H5 [measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
- @! T, @2 F& @8 K: t: F' G& U RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
4 l% q/ m# x5 uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
+ o$ f& X3 H6 L, ywhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 j- C2 o" H6 f3 C5 K
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.6 c7 ]! G4 |( b. M
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
U* n# `0 p V7 ^$ F7 rproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a, I" P) D: q, Z! e$ F* }6 l
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
% n; c, Y; U$ vAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
c4 @7 `# ?3 Q7 O1 T1 V& bstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and5 V" e5 z; W+ h
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* N$ n8 d! Q) a% d5 v According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 x; U- @3 G3 _# k1 g" C- z
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) k& U% X; x0 e7 {the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# K R d' X' f% X; W& e4 N* R
historically depressed levels.8 `. E; n: D" W
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 v& d' r! n: J2 B: Cof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 E) w, D7 m: V4 gprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
. @# u) P! [, l3 xhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This8 T6 }# {- `- m0 D0 l7 |3 Y2 T
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the+ g6 ?+ T* }, }$ T, ~, o
months ahead," added Hogue.
- |5 W- V( X* K6 o ` RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
" S/ V G2 e2 U/ f) \- i4 D* i0 Xcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary7 u9 l2 M/ ~8 x3 G
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.' |0 _; S6 j8 ?; h
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
. L, x; K) w; e) ka broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
$ ^4 i0 Z& P, }5 l% Mcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only, E/ k9 V" q, }+ R: }
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account." C* A! `5 u. }6 m
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is! ~% Z- A, N9 E9 E( p
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property. ]8 k' i g+ { U" }# I5 R* M
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
) ?4 y+ M0 D8 V; B/ ^! hincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard) V: t4 ^2 {9 H
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.5 r, A1 q& F! n% D& L6 N* P/ @
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
+ ~7 Q, C. w3 r. e. Xcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
" w7 i+ U8 Q2 t1 e- H/ `+ ~9 hper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income. p: z9 ]; P+ Z( n% Z* h$ w
4 c6 n h! \1 w# `& w; d <<
8 j9 l0 r& c3 r' p. c& h Highlights from across Canada:
- E, \) Q9 p$ p$ C5 u& Q9 e& E8 I" o. Q8 X
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has$ I4 e Y8 _2 T, F& T
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
) G E+ Y' f3 a1 [5 a3 u- w# e home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound L9 p6 j4 g, V3 A
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
3 ^. n5 i! Z5 ]% Z( A& t. C since about the middle of 2007.
' D5 R2 ~8 x4 n: B$ ]* Q8 x6 |) K - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
4 R9 ^/ f9 \. c( k- {7 k frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 o8 }! d/ r. ^( t( R
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
9 n! t+ `/ d. O; c8 X: t5 K K largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 G: x" E( N5 L
poor affordability levels.
8 h$ d; h3 p" g/ F6 @5 ~4 o - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the/ b: J; U' v; O8 m% N
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
' c" O) n+ ?3 y& h- z( H prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
% J1 o% C, l( s9 Z' @ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to. B& z9 s5 m) x0 M
minimize any downside risks.. M3 [6 D* c. r" a- n, z
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market3 w2 ? H& J* M; E; a
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is( J6 ` D1 W' b
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
7 }+ I0 F; u! _) g2 f* f+ B! \4 B 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
* x7 i# e2 y2 \: w) Z7 e( V; ?8 _ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.! U+ t/ J+ u9 A
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
+ X- X# M% `( m: p" v' d Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' L) Q# {! V! {1 i+ s+ J1 A5 W X6 [1 H
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up2 Z: F- z: b! i9 E2 Z+ X0 h
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
7 n n1 |7 H \8 \) X ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
# k% d: Q+ e8 D% b$ z5 i' a/ G# Z modestly in recent years., r; i p. `# u0 c4 t f
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 A! H; B9 i- J& p4 U" j! z
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
- ?" k" X' X! @6 K+ |& ` spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
2 A7 l# ]- r+ f price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability/ ^" k. Y# `7 D" F6 t7 c" t
following two years of deterioration.5 ]3 y9 A4 p5 U$ Y& v( N' V3 `. F6 W
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