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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC / v, a5 g3 K% L" |) T" J
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 w+ c2 J: g `* S$ L
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive( F4 W0 w; |! F2 e9 w
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,1 O$ Z; b! e c* `9 |' n1 W
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.8 M1 P" X+ F0 G7 ?3 }
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
4 k' ~. l9 H4 @3 j3 p- `' |said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is6 z0 R& K, ~# ^& ^) n
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability; S8 m' ~9 _) k; a: m
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
: k2 Z( u. [) J7 R7 L4 o; @ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
1 G- J3 z4 {( Z" e. \worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
/ r6 H) p' w9 U }3 K: ywhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
3 {3 t! U( I6 c1 dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
/ u- i+ P' |# D: ^0 z4 X The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the' ^& d7 Y" g4 s4 t. |5 _
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 k8 s4 z% I( N+ Whome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.. p& J& v) K6 k; Z+ v1 V- S( K1 k- ?. N
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 f% Y8 B3 A( G7 h( A. H gstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
6 n! h e7 c6 x$ O9 Cthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
+ [: g) }! X6 V5 k: O1 d! y According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
# U9 y% S9 h1 u* G, ymay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
& @7 U O. S3 A1 U# k9 Nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, x; o M1 c J b* ^- ` K8 Qhistorically depressed levels.
; \- b, r( t$ h* t" _! D2 r. L8 p Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ k2 y8 j' c+ o. Q4 Z) k& H3 s W, Lof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
% I. C! R! I6 ~( E- _prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
, J& A9 z! q8 Xhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
1 n/ h- U6 ]9 g3 |" ?4 e3 Q( Yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the& ?- U; V4 l( o6 q6 Y7 |2 u
months ahead," added Hogue.
7 x4 C6 p g! h* \, s" K# F1 ]% [ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 z0 M1 k. H9 ]
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
) f; P# G# l" V# n, H* ]% W42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 A9 a" O5 u/ Q+ s" Z3 D. H
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for F9 ^: J# S0 G+ J3 W4 B
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these1 J' L2 J+ e8 m
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
' W6 [5 T/ c% @; n5 a8 Htakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 |5 I0 U& ]# J' ^5 G
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
8 D1 ^9 G: R, ?# ]: V! f" x+ |based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
& h. U) ?8 d/ J5 H* Z7 Sbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented+ ?: p0 P4 \. H" ]$ ~" ]) F
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard O' X# _+ ]. f8 }+ Q4 L- _
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.; a5 J' q$ L- }+ t) t! T$ k
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 J5 v& B& `" Ycosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
) S% D# b$ G: qper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income./ }9 J: y4 d4 M# G6 `) ]+ N8 V/ c
; ~/ b% s9 {. a5 L& I
<<
' h; S% `$ b# ^$ {3 M Highlights from across Canada:
4 x0 X6 @$ s2 V
2 [6 M0 y- ?% O# O - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
6 B1 k8 h- ]$ ^" g) o4 W intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
- {8 b2 I# {& ]( a home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound" k# ~2 \/ z! s. E# n0 N/ G
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
3 q5 c: V+ x2 \9 a, T6 u since about the middle of 2007.( ^& @$ f# e2 Q7 b! d9 L; |
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the8 |/ E! i9 K* A: W+ u# x6 ?
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ L3 q& T+ n5 D. Z/ d: [6 i& A decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) Y& u1 U. T$ J1 ^' f" o largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
! x3 n; H1 B/ c7 l poor affordability levels.
% N' U8 @% b& e& B [7 v# u - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the0 l6 [" W5 R; x: R: }4 e% |0 t8 w5 n- C
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and" y% p- G+ A& w9 @& C
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly., _5 A# s2 m2 e. G8 Q" j
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
" a' a$ h* ?! k+ D B minimize any downside risks.
0 _2 x' w& x' v. _ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market' T7 y: B4 e# e: U) l
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is" w+ [) {: i: C! s: M9 F. M
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
# a9 _* x. _, | 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) ]6 w; Q _1 ^5 X2 x# \7 _$ `9 @
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 D6 @/ L9 |: w9 q6 ^
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) v/ ~% `/ Y/ y" }6 Z0 K Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus% s* k5 u% x; D
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
8 p/ ^/ R; ~! X reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be' }, P# @5 A7 \) w- ]
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only/ Q# `9 _" G3 E8 }' X
modestly in recent years.
+ Q5 L) {8 n$ V - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
" b5 |5 {( l+ j% ~ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot+ q* a* Z& z1 R& n4 m' F
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward1 a2 x, x6 n5 u+ N* M0 c3 v3 a
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
. F( X9 N, A8 z. K following two years of deterioration.' d& S4 m1 C% m
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