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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 v9 j1 q% T2 R
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& m9 l8 H! x. ?% w% |middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
: Y" K) x3 m' O/ g; Ngains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
l0 R9 F+ v' |& W- }, p3 ~+ _1 Caccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
' w1 u" f, q( l: u& e9 N "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
8 z- S4 m7 c3 R& J& csaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
; }% |9 R6 k5 ]9 rimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability+ ]# Y: ~. F4 i
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages." ]( L9 B* e' j' p
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
, r F' Z9 ^8 b; T% U, ]$ N# Dworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,; R5 a. M0 P8 T- V* {
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have$ e- f$ q' O' ?" K. {/ B$ m% p
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
8 [2 ~ q) a8 N0 d' w/ B The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the# m0 @' k: ?4 O+ ~+ s& d) x/ E
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
1 ^! j0 D v7 Q4 Q* I+ Jhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008. c4 L; H- L2 f! X8 r" t
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' ], e5 Q; G2 o- w: t4 f7 K q; L+ {standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and8 S4 O" ~4 y: c' y3 a3 {
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
! l) F1 L/ a( d8 A# m7 S According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: C. z) k/ o: Y. X/ l0 {8 mmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
* C# |5 |/ o+ Vthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# g0 _# f0 d# b h3 H
historically depressed levels.; t; T& \3 c' r
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
' p, ^ s' |0 G/ t* `, v4 r* cof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ S/ F: X. f4 g3 Aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the- h& a% V0 J& R( D, ]1 x/ l
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
# U1 M4 z' k( w, I8 V4 j2 H. xenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the9 Q Y, p1 ^& K, ?( P7 k" W8 Y3 l, @
months ahead," added Hogue.& ` r( C% u6 z$ ?6 F7 P' Q i
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest5 b% C8 F2 ?) x2 Z C' n
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary) N7 M3 U+ e( z$ K) x
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.8 G& w) k+ M9 w+ p9 x. X
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
1 I8 j* U9 o* ^' T# J3 y, Q- Ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& x. T4 @7 B- Pcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only g% n+ d/ f, @, c8 N
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
& A1 L% q9 z7 Q! ?8 F The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is( C; j, {% O9 @/ f2 ~3 m2 F
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& ~/ Z, v% i" v3 @
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented- q8 |# l+ C& ^0 u8 R; \) _
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard$ M* u4 r: N" F. b+ f, X0 m) y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 p% G7 A* Q/ C; r0 z' }) o1 G$ WFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
! Y& x5 h; k& C. Gcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 A* Q! n0 M8 K0 p/ g
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 S2 A) L. o1 o0 O" p7 o- |3 f l/ V* ?, x& k9 k- o
<<0 k; h/ ~ {& {7 K8 A8 o( Z) ^
Highlights from across Canada:, t% X' U! B z: S
4 E+ A* ?" ]( @. ^& h
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
7 b7 m! Q: k: x9 O% t' o1 j b X intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" z* x, n, e+ U" }! c' L7 {
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound* N) X5 S% R8 e6 O2 E7 j
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track1 D3 t- _- y$ H, X8 ? F
since about the middle of 2007.
1 s, b. O: \4 r# |$ c; D% ]5 t$ e - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
: C5 [% {( ^. [- T* o+ C f frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
9 q* `1 \ B- A$ }. i! N2 x2 R decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still6 G6 c! r" B2 L% Z) ?
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ K7 ?4 x; b0 b7 `) m
poor affordability levels.; W: B4 F0 y7 L0 n
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
8 C9 I+ A$ J" z. E vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
! ^% Q; e' N# K0 P. S$ { prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
/ M+ Y$ ^3 p/ ?' S% H Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
S2 L8 \2 ]9 m" F minimize any downside risks.
5 h f' W) [9 U - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market+ @) x5 g6 t' r; i: k
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. x2 Y# w2 s% x0 `6 s' F& I# S5 D# P* _* S unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
7 X9 P' e* W6 b# `( y 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly% }1 @& L' Q6 x; ]5 H! m
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.; y, S! j9 s! O! {. f5 I: {& c. t7 C# ^
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
4 W% H5 a' s+ k) ^. Z O Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' }( _. [% ~/ ^: g L
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
' ?' }9 _5 Y2 ~0 h6 K reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: X3 O1 J/ Y, F! P ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only5 D7 Q T* h5 S5 z5 l+ o y; J; I
modestly in recent years.# \& B2 Z% H( G: }+ c& \) t
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
5 X4 ~$ Z3 i( X8 R( T) ]7 O general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
3 r, b+ s% m8 N% j4 V3 G6 W" t spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward, I4 F* q! e- O- a% `5 w
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 ^ _+ _, o3 _/ ]# e1 p1 g8 H
following two years of deterioration.) P8 r* o/ N: E, n
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