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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC * m& V/ Q$ J8 H
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the* W2 M4 ]2 w: T9 A, J! ?1 } Y* U
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. P% }, Q5 a9 N/ ~0 u
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
# N! M5 w! w% e, S& u$ [4 raccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 n* t: w4 J8 x& s6 |% h "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
; k+ O* s- M5 Ysaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is6 P& Q/ \4 x9 c k6 \2 E8 b
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
/ K/ z, m/ {1 q8 o3 }/ e, ?+ ^measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."5 O0 N, W6 |7 D
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 h* Z; X. T4 ?worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
. M0 i3 Y/ ], F1 G% P+ {which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have1 E" o+ j) ^3 K0 [
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.: b5 t1 |1 Q+ A
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 B, ]3 d ^' y) `
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
! X7 K+ w E6 M" C1 Bhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
% C/ z% t3 [# e8 ?& I1 [Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 z8 T3 b" ]' e O5 K) P
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and4 O( \+ `( D0 |& r. l
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. Q% A" }! Q+ B4 G7 |2 x3 M According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ f7 d6 l. J. [ Q& S7 F. dmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
9 f$ o* r/ i# ^; Zthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at/ U3 R6 V* k- ]# H- m
historically depressed levels.6 T: ?% X$ U" q' ~- n: o! u
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, H- b+ L d& p
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House, t8 R- c# o* X
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
% {) E: R% J, Y& W+ q* Fhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& T6 w+ `* r) W2 `enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the _) @! M: i) w
months ahead," added Hogue.
* J" L7 B! @7 Z$ M" `: ]7 W; ] RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest( d" V0 P9 E1 R4 W2 `
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary( n* N1 [# N+ m
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
. g! |7 j6 `9 S* Y8 ^ ] The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% d9 s+ E1 e3 ]$ d! u2 N
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
8 K7 k0 K$ @* V0 lcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
0 I5 Y5 V0 P% \! s$ ^takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
: G* Y/ y) i) L/ ?; { The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is9 K2 c# z) M6 { _( y
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
+ Z: |& ?; n% r, a# E; N" ~benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented. G6 u m+ v X, s& B- y9 n6 j
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 i- a9 w2 e+ ~, N; u
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 z1 \0 d0 a$ d7 T- qFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership' ]5 e" h# X0 \6 c" K ]' r
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
9 T9 b% l. K- m3 n& K# Rper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.- O" {5 h) o, V6 @: X" g, G
) G, z9 \' b4 N% k( J1 g
<<* F% K% U8 k. R/ y1 s6 f
Highlights from across Canada:
! D) ^, G5 O& Z N: n3 E) m
/ |$ F, a# G& Z9 g4 e - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' ?7 z) }9 L) m: |0 Q
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
" |4 n0 Z9 [# B" X home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
+ N; ?" o: N; i8 l1 g3 Z; G only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track1 V/ v4 q0 t! R& X
since about the middle of 2007.
) P: ?, t" r& [- K, P1 ?9 k - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& i) B! N% ?, Y
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ e& C3 I$ K+ | decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
1 t1 e1 i& @& u0 f! f" I largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( t- O0 H2 o" f* z6 B G poor affordability levels.
9 |* ]- q) @4 |6 |# v' S - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 S) k! a% q* A6 H3 `$ X
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
5 u# p6 c. k# t1 l8 t4 w3 E prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
6 ~7 _: H9 @. D0 M2 h2 i5 Z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to; ?1 ~ V+ f) d+ b; J+ l
minimize any downside risks.) t$ E, i2 I( ^1 }* a
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
$ G' w# ?, b/ c. M- \% v conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is$ e' @6 y/ U: z& d! k2 T6 P! B
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& v' u/ C* \' l. f! G7 H 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly2 l1 h9 K: S A5 [5 B" k6 _
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ e1 V$ f, H" E1 q) }9 Z
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
" c: N$ u1 }" X4 s# ~( R Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
4 @3 P) G f6 k9 \ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
: T; U0 l! T5 S! b reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
/ J d9 r( B7 ^: X+ g, w ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 b3 \2 g Y0 n/ w modestly in recent years.
( Y) j2 F) c5 V. k! O h5 M8 I - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* s5 ?& ?( o9 c5 X6 _
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
+ F* r; Q0 G) [ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" s% [4 K0 `; r3 c ] `% ]: i
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
* T8 @1 x! d2 k" W& B2 m. E% x following two years of deterioration.
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