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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( f& e2 L8 j+ P% ^0 j4 ` TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
- t" v8 j" r2 |8 G/ z5 F# D! Xmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
0 p" \1 l( `, S$ n4 hgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
- C5 s0 F! T. Yaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
. g( n. N. v0 ~/ J: y9 L, e2 S "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"0 |' H2 _& W2 Y2 F
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
% B, f- j; e n% ]7 d: |improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
$ o4 I+ \3 O& Z$ jmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 \1 V0 d9 m0 I- H! [: C7 g
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 n. i1 E7 X" g, B7 k) Z/ _worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
. E- {% I& }) X) J4 Q8 g0 Uwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 J2 A" _" a1 d5 W" J
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.5 {/ H3 m& Y o/ |
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the: J: k h/ m$ `* l6 ]' {
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
8 q2 v& h( n& y! m) g5 ]( Mhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ K: n/ n1 O) l% s2 `' f
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 R l- ^ S# }5 N5 h
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
9 W' P }7 L. dthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* v, C& A1 E& l% @( s4 o# P( { According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
% k9 s! }/ |6 c4 r* S+ s. [2 {/ \may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
" g0 f5 ^7 ^ mthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
% ]9 k# x# t) l1 q6 jhistorically depressed levels., K: Y4 D7 p4 i; P& G
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
& k# K% g5 P0 Zof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House4 {2 ]* I7 ^6 L9 ^2 q/ [" [
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, `6 T# ^8 u2 @ u
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This9 y% a# d$ Q, g% Z! M
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the/ j# |8 n3 y; V$ }
months ahead," added Hogue.
- s: N2 w- h8 K* x RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest9 W) C& k. o! E/ [" h
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
; M! n5 D0 q- m+ q; W V: {6 e42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.; b. M! I3 C6 h& K% t- Z1 p& I8 H2 H
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for0 }2 s: E( H$ p" X# s
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
9 M& v2 w x3 Q0 j( ?, L' T1 rcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
T* w. y. _: }8 Q1 s2 B5 etakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.1 p" e7 O2 M* P* l
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is* a' I* F9 v2 _9 t
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property8 P, {/ p+ o) I; {, L6 K+ Q
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
& z# h3 A% i; @9 d1 P6 H+ ]3 Zincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 u! t& c$ ]; M3 B
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.# ^- Q* L' }% B3 ^8 _* S& Y
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
7 [1 P4 v3 {% Z% ucosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 B. Q% \0 c7 T9 X) q% O* x" C1 ? P7 V
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
% {" A4 p& O3 x0 l5 I+ H: [( J1 K
0 V8 t- d( x0 ?5 `/ M* v <<- E# }" w- Y& d# }9 k" A, Z
Highlights from across Canada:1 `8 [2 v3 G8 m& b3 \' m0 y( n
4 J& R7 e e# z* D. V% S5 |6 C - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( V5 H4 v* s% ~1 Z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
. t+ h4 X3 h9 p& f home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
5 U4 J2 T6 ~6 ?' t) f/ Q only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
+ b# `! C# C5 r8 i( l8 A6 O7 ^2 W# a since about the middle of 2007.2 C, v; ]3 d' ]' y0 ?
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
# F7 x, s! I# }2 k5 v5 S+ [" { frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to7 Y, v; h( @+ u. ?9 I
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
^- {) C( Z+ |0 x3 o5 z largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
4 F. U M0 ~- {& k: ? poor affordability levels.
$ S" e5 u7 ^: _8 ?3 O( ` - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ W. e$ U( S( p R4 q' ] vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 A! L3 P. _' o3 n Y8 j+ J prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 ~ m4 Z, A3 r4 E4 Z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to0 u2 o* e; F& I& y& p$ t
minimize any downside risks. M9 P- y& Z3 {# N# d4 f
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
^- ^" T8 |4 b$ }: w; y. ` conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
! Q* y8 W+ C' R$ a% B; G unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early$ M7 C0 f3 l5 }
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly( N) }+ t. { e/ G% c% S
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
/ f. J# Z' Z/ A" M$ X - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# q! T8 J* `2 Y# |' W# y) {+ w E) c( [ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
" R3 t* F' _) m. o* ^ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up# U' C3 t5 d* }& @
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
2 ?% R' ]; u: @' e ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
7 z5 P7 p: i$ O/ _5 O# L% f2 d1 h modestly in recent years." v8 y4 \4 _6 q l9 s
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
! o# B& A3 Y3 }' P- P! p4 V general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
5 g9 N( P3 y- Z q; G spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward/ d/ C: Y4 }; N2 B& G. M8 v
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability5 o, o9 D8 ?4 N& H3 }# N; ^9 R
following two years of deterioration.
! P& O+ T; e+ ^1 {* L* R6 ~" e/ F >> |
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