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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
0 t) F7 U4 l/ L; Z TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the7 D: H+ J8 Y5 U
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, m$ e# s6 u9 T2 S: v. J# Y
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,7 @2 L+ ~: D- j8 g5 Y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
3 P% ?3 `9 b: {+ h% V "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
h/ H! }6 Q1 }9 D( c0 t! }7 n; |said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
+ V$ G% M( c4 l( S0 ]improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability/ A3 s( G/ v; [7 B
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
! i! @ B4 ?5 s1 j+ D- W6 m RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, Y/ ?, P' {. ~ M( L+ ~2 L
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
& d/ S* Z4 L, @8 q8 ]2 K: Ywhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! i) O2 k. w- n rsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.. m9 i( @ D; o4 d2 a3 z
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the) |9 b7 H' A1 S
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a Z5 _ V }) m4 j' w
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
8 `8 h' ~1 O' n* H; O1 R4 tAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
% r1 e% i9 U, nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
# A" X; f* X. d; [- ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* ]! R ^7 A" H$ S! r( f/ ~ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets8 R8 C5 P8 v; o
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
( Q5 U& X- \6 ^, s: H3 lthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
8 l2 \& d% X' q1 x) o0 |historically depressed levels./ T1 q5 E$ X( q( u, U6 ^5 Z
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost) H. ]* G0 l0 {5 j
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House: ^: X( V4 v# r4 t H2 G* o" m
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the I7 U5 X* B6 u& ]
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This9 o# r7 Z% g" q* o9 t( ]
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, Z2 R7 M7 r0 R/ _; {; Dmonths ahead," added Hogue.5 g7 Z5 G8 T6 y, }" X5 ?
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
1 s4 }' i) ~5 W. e& l0 \/ Jcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
* ` ]8 }! t$ n! K! G42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
5 p6 T9 {7 n3 r& S% x5 k; ^ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
3 |2 C) T8 O [( q& Va broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these& d. t1 z) H$ w: N2 h# w* v
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
\0 [6 x3 w9 O# e ?& ]$ Xtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: z, J' c/ k. n/ T7 A
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is9 ^8 G7 L2 F2 V
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property: Z: s" K- M5 F- I/ Y" T4 s
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
! u9 K' Z# E8 z1 M7 zincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard; ?( ? A0 r' D; H$ i5 `
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) s& ~8 }7 @: a! M( \For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
2 h& T3 l0 b* _. Lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
5 h. ^/ Q2 I/ s7 j" Gper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
9 q3 ~) |+ Z- z, ^* r, q4 H9 B! g+ O/ H+ Q8 z1 v( ~( A- c) I
<<
$ {9 o4 j/ ], A, ~; \1 ~0 B Highlights from across Canada:
- a2 |9 v- Z8 H r& d/ {3 F8 L0 h
" u9 d) Z, l: |' }( o: {/ s - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has9 v+ e+ Q. G! k+ `- j1 P6 R
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing- P& M/ h" V; r0 }
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
0 C) Z9 p$ }6 d7 C; A only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
& t+ V) h! |7 }, `+ y, l since about the middle of 2007.: J1 P& _" i2 p+ l- |) z: T( q
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
A+ z; o; O4 D frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# B5 E& j/ {7 s: M3 |! ~% p decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
. o6 ^$ _$ i# N! h largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely8 k8 J d( h' r
poor affordability levels.% {! S7 H* @/ k* k) E
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the; t3 z" ^ t0 D3 r, g9 G
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
1 j7 k+ s! _* M1 f) o prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly. G: D) z/ a! q! \1 u9 n( E; A- b( h; K
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
$ _& H# ]( V( _ minimize any downside risks.
: M z! `- q+ @% G5 W1 N+ b9 S( @ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
# S5 |3 P& B2 t8 e4 v% R conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is% B g$ Q5 I& }( T! Q, C/ E
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early0 k0 F0 B6 A# N5 N% y
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
: o0 [. j2 r$ v; D5 y$ w Z being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
]. r1 \7 r r; W$ `/ n5 L - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in8 o+ d# h# W$ u7 A" G
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
' @, l# \# ~2 n L8 ` far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ n7 {- g! J5 T7 r1 O o reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
- `5 }! H+ A' E3 M( R ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
: x! R7 @ r& V2 @4 _( ` n modestly in recent years.9 R9 f g6 a! ?
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
& Z7 u' g D1 a/ y general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot: S0 ?) g n7 _, ^/ f
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward8 s% U% q. B9 n
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
/ v6 t" k \% O- e6 m* l following two years of deterioration.% \ y6 H! }( O! r
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