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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
8 i Q- E+ L" X. o" I TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ R8 b: p8 h1 D* N
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
% V: W! D. f" Q1 cgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
+ I; q; U0 {: {) g0 Y' uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) F* U' j( j6 ^, X/ a
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"% `* L1 N P z9 } K
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
& K/ A8 b" `' @& `$ q3 simproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability& L" N" I+ S& g: l
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
- L) G5 f$ ^+ ~, A( W: K' L RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is8 N1 b- O+ Y, t: G5 ?8 Y- a
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing, V% V; M2 Q2 r A2 R1 @
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have5 G- r7 C; R: Y7 G1 \/ l; }
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" n3 Q/ Q$ K7 t# Y- ~7 ]5 B7 B/ s The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
4 @3 m5 }( S# } r5 z: vproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
6 j9 l2 D/ n2 G" p+ ~; ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
6 }' _4 n% T: ~! W: x' [Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 H" g, n' T" W6 X
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
& n; O$ ]+ P. K7 [8 M7 i6 i7 A) ?the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
: S7 K7 N5 V# |% m. t+ a According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets5 T* g4 C9 [6 u
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in' u9 p* T& G5 i& j
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
% f1 E4 |9 ^3 N& }' S' }3 @& ~9 chistorically depressed levels.% ~2 S- n3 o% S
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
' w: [1 s3 Q4 n! Pof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House/ Z" C+ u( @6 p- a
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the$ M$ U$ F6 ^5 {8 @+ x' b- p
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This/ G- b" y3 l1 ?% U4 W$ {! D
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
) k% K8 Q* R5 d2 Amonths ahead," added Hogue.+ H( D4 P( p0 c2 g1 X
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
. c8 U F7 b8 g: W2 ~# J6 kcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary' w6 ]4 H; O0 x
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
% w3 C! S) R7 E7 t+ ]7 S# G# B The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" ]8 ]) I5 {9 x4 J0 i$ Q V6 n
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 a0 b6 x4 `! f) L
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 _4 u$ ^! G3 n) Q/ `. ltakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
& @- _- L6 T0 \3 f The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is% z* q! @" C$ U' ` E; R
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property* Q/ e2 s2 F, o. y& ~
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
4 C; B! D6 r8 C( h7 Y! kincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard: C0 C0 y/ ^( I) k R- M9 p
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home./ ?, W6 @' Q H9 w
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership) V4 W- D' h2 p
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
/ E" Y+ `; Z) r$ ]per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income., k) {& @8 _- }( {
' P \* O5 Y3 d$ _7 q& x$ M7 t
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# f O/ n7 n4 I5 \ Highlights from across Canada:
" W' `/ u4 E6 {
% S( }2 x/ d/ Q; Z; V. W5 U+ @1 P - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- t& }' a! |& m intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
/ q9 d6 u! b/ V2 l/ i* V0 f home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 c% ?: N" ^& p9 w/ ]" b only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
( r: i$ u% w" B0 w! ?$ Y since about the middle of 2007.: v" w+ J7 s: @; S$ w1 K3 M
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
# H; x9 ]: n3 W1 I' y frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# a$ W. L! \/ n( v! N2 @. G1 J decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still7 b0 \: x) Q& w' w4 o ~- W
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
) C3 f3 j4 q3 a4 p) I" j6 I | poor affordability levels.3 W: s% ^8 S* ?+ f2 A' k7 M
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the/ y4 ?/ }! W0 b8 {
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and( N' M/ q$ d9 b) R7 o# ~ o
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.8 P- V0 I- d$ N+ g9 A! q! U. T _
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
/ n x. i. p9 v. v minimize any downside risks.
7 l7 e3 h. x, e- G9 K - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
, D0 O; P. d$ }3 j conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is: Q- u% A5 ]8 D( K. w, ^# O& s @- ]: d
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
; Q% G- S# B! _7 V: O2 s 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
$ K; {4 V. A | I7 { being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
( m. ]0 c$ v! E8 w& \1 d7 R - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in5 x, u" o; T7 H
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus# P9 y5 H0 k, I9 X0 u
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up4 u5 q8 f c. ^/ m
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be$ \% e2 ~% R" p8 C+ @ m# P4 G3 E
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 ^+ H3 v5 ?, p! R+ u
modestly in recent years.% \; G- ?+ ?/ P( c. d7 { I# p
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
0 T9 Q' w8 A/ Q8 o general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) F9 Q5 \$ U* p( {7 H# e6 N spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
; V5 y5 c" g# h. v price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability7 ^- ~- T" v$ Q4 A- j
following two years of deterioration.
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