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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
+ g+ N0 h8 W0 s# C b TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
) r- b2 N Y6 mmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
: ~& T& D( U- E w6 t0 \gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,9 V, r) }# \! z$ E8 a
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
% T n' o6 u8 {% r "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
5 A7 K1 |$ ?7 E& R5 e9 Lsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% \; c7 y( s! g
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
, T; n/ e- V& d- Wmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# O$ Y4 T8 z/ y" K; B
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is1 H6 o# M. B3 i7 s
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,/ t# Q$ X' F' z" ~7 M- R; I) F
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
* k: {$ @9 Z/ w% A. Z/ F" Fsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
5 K5 T- U# w0 |2 N8 r P The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the! x; F4 K% I- h3 q7 a% C, j _5 z
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a, i& z1 \: J; y' f0 q
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.1 Z: ~/ t/ R8 W }
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the+ o7 V ~% f$ K% h: b; E
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
$ d h+ u$ T# T- ^' Bthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.+ Z" y3 c! r& U) Z4 f
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets+ ^6 Z2 i5 r, N6 A- Q5 T1 y7 R# h% F
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in- _3 E2 s1 {$ [
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at6 b2 W+ P2 \+ l
historically depressed levels.
/ ?, T9 G; ]3 P* X Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost8 U' r$ @& _) F, T: T0 y. ?' C
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House" e- U4 h! H, Z- t# D0 }: V
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& S$ m4 b" _5 q: k8 b8 r1 p
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- S- c1 `' ?7 b5 H7 ]' l% Menormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, [) @$ U; t; u5 g n* Z1 Z7 Kmonths ahead," added Hogue.
/ L6 U: U6 i: z5 F$ x$ V: G3 V RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 v) `5 \* o1 f7 y Zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
2 e% Q9 ]5 V1 _. K* I4 F/ W42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. R; n6 h: H: F( X( b" E* l
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for1 k5 Y: m2 S5 {: k$ p; T
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
~6 \: ~- o& h' A5 [& s1 Hcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
/ }4 c1 n& C( u2 k! F% V* M2 w) v/ |takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.0 B* V; _4 ]0 k. [ d
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
S3 r6 s, ^: l) Ebased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
6 ]! n; Z& q+ N/ |( g6 Q& [benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: y1 x' c# P& ]/ M: p) Z
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard* Q: ~0 p" [* T. h. p% b- y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. b- q" k% v& u, n6 j U% {' x, u
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
9 }# K9 B. B: P0 o; rcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 v* x P! o |+ s* [* p+ a
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 _( \* O5 D. }7 I W6 z
+ c3 @5 Q( @3 p$ k" L( G' H
<<( q; v; ] E8 d# I! J
Highlights from across Canada:
0 S$ I) N- g& h% `, i: x8 e4 t% M# I' i, L; g Z& |
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
: K: c. h; b. U: Q1 O( u intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing \: h3 Q+ u- v+ `: z
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; u$ F( h: D* B! t$ t
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track2 o5 w/ B) v- Z5 ~5 `
since about the middle of 2007.
$ i$ Q. A5 {1 x) r; }# {$ N6 \ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the1 G7 B; g$ Z; ]1 I3 w
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to- s, I, V( T. _$ ]% ^, R7 A
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
" f; Y+ C- n, t4 l+ e+ Z largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
- W& }# `, d( k" b! a poor affordability levels.
4 W$ d [, Q( d$ J+ Y - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
) B: Q2 o2 G% z) H8 E vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
* J: O1 `, O" X2 [. D prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
% ]* r6 X, g& l2 x- u# \2 S Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to6 {1 c) U5 K) x3 n/ }5 {
minimize any downside risks.
* Q# e3 O' ~$ |9 p - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market3 |4 I( D6 C2 X: `& y2 S
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
# p* {! A3 j( { unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 U4 q6 f1 O7 t' d$ ~8 Y: n
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ J5 T% K0 b9 s6 C, [ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
4 v6 ?7 ?8 r5 x& B: S- { - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in3 h% y$ g$ ]/ P! h& v
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
- L2 b2 c) q0 }' H+ \ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
0 }: y, S: ^2 m* e0 k' W( D! V reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
1 M. ^9 f7 B1 l0 V ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
0 `! x1 m3 N4 e modestly in recent years.% m# g, A4 i* q1 J1 I
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
' c z) o* I6 C8 l# L- @( T% ` general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! _9 C% D6 F+ N+ @1 ~7 \* A
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
, w' Z9 E2 Z& Z$ i1 x! B price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
0 u2 L: _+ L4 q( h8 X& n3 Y- Z following two years of deterioration.
% G+ f' U' N% `9 l& K1 K; }4 A* t, L >> |
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