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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC : e6 m3 P% h% K* _+ {1 ?8 |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the9 P: a6 T, Z5 e2 ~* T7 k- C. W
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& a1 H: ^" X' z( x. x; f3 P
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,& b& h1 L3 i. n* w
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.# _$ \6 h" ~$ G2 `- C& j
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,") ^* O/ ~: H; a; a+ _# A5 C7 Q A
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
7 _) i) b5 Q- j1 f& ]% Pimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability6 Z2 f6 Y1 N2 s" T1 E) S: `- X, H- D
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# W* d1 p6 Y) g: w6 _
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
& K0 S {3 J" `& w0 x& J ]2 Eworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 i% ~; J; L- |/ s t/ Lwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have3 v' L- k1 _' T
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. Y! z& w3 L- y2 G+ P2 [, t5 l a
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the# G* [! e* f2 k+ C0 o# A
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a$ k2 a- f+ d8 _& [: i- v2 _
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.' u. t! @+ n! b" a
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
+ v6 N; r9 b8 f( G! gstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
" {. S. R. r; F# U' ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
$ i, v1 ? s5 `# E' j# Z) P/ i According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 [2 s: E) {1 I) Z
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in/ M& i0 K: x1 A( R. x w3 q* a
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# m% z* a) A$ _2 @0 [
historically depressed levels.
' G* y5 i" ~' s3 O8 H3 |% @$ X Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 m5 U$ f' J) Z9 gof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House1 p" j7 x, a$ _; S
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the* y8 |, E M7 b. t7 y
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 w7 d8 m8 i4 e: y: ]* s1 T; i5 {
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the m9 n+ q: [) d, V
months ahead," added Hogue.
/ N" @8 i( P1 J! { RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest6 E% y: V* N. y( p- e: j
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
( E, X3 i6 r& y4 @" ?% O+ t* z42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.6 t/ X: ?1 n# x5 N
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for9 I4 b. Z, x* k3 g8 }1 Q
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 A4 D4 Z7 ?/ y) u9 Ecities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
1 ?% }& [0 x8 V2 utakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
; J/ F0 R2 a- Q3 S+ _ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is. c' k% B! k: N/ r
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property: ?) X4 w' c; r7 i8 @) |1 m
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented/ [# |2 ?# a( q5 G- _; h
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
* ]% p/ x. T0 c4 e0 C& r' Gcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) f; J' {$ W5 P) W: wFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership( u C. E, C% F2 J% \4 O6 n
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
1 o$ T- D3 n$ K$ V" c: cper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.. h0 C) z6 B9 X% F5 j# l5 T
+ l/ e+ C3 i8 O' E% E <<
6 o# r9 P, J* N! Z- B% Y, L3 H: p Highlights from across Canada:( Z% Q' @0 o$ O0 s- X
+ n% t4 M$ P. l" j - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
& f( Q4 R0 {- Q" K2 U4 G0 a4 ? intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
* y$ z: }+ U' Q9 s- p& h1 \ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound& e: F# g) j }4 r- o5 n
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track8 M& c& ]: v" z) j
since about the middle of 2007.& V- E+ \, D6 X$ b" M j( t
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
# E; y9 ~1 s' L7 {7 M; K5 u9 G5 r frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
9 e0 R; _9 i5 y7 \ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still% a* E- n; A3 b F+ g
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
9 Q/ A2 V8 |+ }4 Q, m8 _ poor affordability levels.9 g# ]! t+ ~' r: x" ~" `, n
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
! P- M4 G4 ]4 k+ _ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 o6 ^4 u& w# K' O
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
( p' h- B+ ~+ H7 T. {7 F Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to( x. m! b+ Y& E" f& e
minimize any downside risks.; a0 K3 |+ o. G4 u
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market9 I* X+ G4 t0 R/ M' @
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
! }( I; O' V9 R) b% f unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
1 U7 ]9 c" E8 Z( R" e 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% ?% a' j& _) O: b- o7 w; ? being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
2 |8 |0 O5 t- ], p+ J; L& |+ A - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in: z0 t1 H! {) w0 j2 K! ~
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus* B. B$ J' ^/ E) X7 {
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
$ E. {% q7 u4 i- v' r$ K; K7 F+ K reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
$ Z; a9 f3 L& q; w @ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 `5 F; J( Y5 w7 B% G0 D
modestly in recent years.
& t9 ~$ _" n9 ` - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
1 U0 {. H1 F' Y( t general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot* P( w7 N0 r6 S, Q6 L
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
, ~+ S3 `; d2 W( M* o; W' ~( Z1 \; v6 s price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability- ?, A B; j; G. H
following two years of deterioration.
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