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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ' M: v2 i1 Q3 f: M( i
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
3 m& N* s# m! m0 a* w4 mmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive* f! O/ A1 `5 f' }5 ]" r+ I0 M! _+ h
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
/ D' G' Y# k q) caccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." R0 _' k* ~- Q$ c0 y& L4 i
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
2 j" ^; D+ r7 L) A: }said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
- y" S4 L! K' f" r& r4 ~' J/ kimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability* d' T! a% d2 P) ~6 I
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages." ?5 t% u' b& \$ S
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
2 x+ b: E, l4 s6 u1 Q9 d7 X/ G4 y- vworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 Z _ S3 r6 L7 X/ v/ J. s
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
- x+ s% W* p( y- |sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.5 K6 d/ S2 X: D1 H/ E! ?/ o9 z
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
+ X+ a' @7 B) Q! |proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# W: }6 J) j/ j+ E' G9 F0 _, c' L
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.- t6 _/ W0 c% v' w5 H
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the: R$ p2 L. W: ]# c9 f
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and5 Z( E2 w3 v/ m
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.; Q% b# ^. e! v7 N/ P
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) h3 V9 }" u4 x5 r; n4 V8 ~. ]
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
0 U" z2 F2 L J' ?the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
# g2 O+ Q( }$ A1 A4 Uhistorically depressed levels.& U! `$ M3 ^- n& t
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost# q* v5 R: n @8 O v7 J
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 Q+ D' U5 U5 c# h$ A; g/ l) eprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
$ f, y! W4 }0 W/ Dhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 H4 O0 J2 z9 J2 B3 l1 O: Q3 Genormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 ]; w* \* y7 Z0 {months ahead," added Hogue.
6 C0 w- w2 M$ s: N. y( H RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% w$ K; {- q: G6 Z5 z: a e
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
8 w. e& V( L0 A. k' [4 e42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
5 g- p, M* I. m The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" V' y& {' E% t5 R- a6 H
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
$ s# T9 P3 f" R& ~# G7 ]cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
( r$ _. s* g0 K jtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
8 x" e2 O0 @. j6 C9 Z' H2 I The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is( Y$ n( b/ o; N
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property! y4 v- |& Y& q/ K8 F: D
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 R4 e$ s h9 L4 Tincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 m2 j V1 M k% \4 X! u; [) icondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
; P: x( _1 W0 d8 I( O7 hFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: Y' ?- m( F7 A8 q) `
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
! d) g: t+ m! f9 a3 A6 }9 Tper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
1 e% y5 W, s! t4 }$ N; y8 K
) n: h7 [. D; q3 d <<
% i6 U& i5 ^/ g, E. Y5 l# L; m Highlights from across Canada:
! u- q7 c' q6 [/ g9 N9 f$ u: u; V+ W. p8 I; |* \8 F7 B1 T
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
5 G0 A( z+ B' U* V/ [ r3 [ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing0 L M7 u: r* a8 [+ Q
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound! I4 J' s' H& v& D% W3 C
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: x; N$ f7 s2 Q% y since about the middle of 2007.# O2 G/ ~$ Q" W# t' t
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* q o! R# j6 _& @% P `4 W
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# K* l, D" r$ g
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still- b& k1 w4 y9 S6 ^1 R5 i. G
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
; `3 I! P/ G+ M9 c% l poor affordability levels.; }5 c* D' X# x+ I9 t
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ l5 K# [$ V) h* s4 D3 p vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 @9 a6 x- \3 A+ } prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
8 O# ?' I5 U9 E% b" N( o, D. W8 v Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
( a: |& B" U- o/ }# d1 n4 M& i$ Z minimize any downside risks.
+ C$ o3 u+ q0 U' ?' U+ m - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market4 a4 l$ v9 r" P# H- \4 N9 I: D9 [
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
& D# s! x, K# G6 |0 g( H; E( d unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
) b) t/ w# n/ z3 H5 x5 s 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
9 s3 y4 a/ m- f3 c+ d: L8 U+ R being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ W" C- f3 E6 f! K# i2 a
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) f0 E/ v; Y" t' |( X0 i0 A Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus- H; p; W* w0 g& E, e- o
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up4 u4 [4 Z( j2 c
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
& m7 |0 V g e' u; E% ?3 p ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
8 S$ B, |3 B) b9 X modestly in recent years.
; G7 q, [5 e4 B - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the" ^7 c. B S, B7 l$ l) }0 X
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
6 J8 c- V# a5 j$ y: m5 X spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" d( q, M+ {: l! s9 u8 x
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
, z: b3 a9 K& ^) p# j: i8 F9 ?, I, y following two years of deterioration.! R4 x# }2 s' T. @
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