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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
6 |5 [! {$ \1 B; L/ Y" n- I& H* }2 k, w) p) ^. s: t
Market Commentary4 M/ x/ N9 T% v( Y" U/ {+ a) H3 Y
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 P2 k7 R( x, o/ {: ?
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 u% l. v( g; L9 U* zSignature Global Advisors
, a% ^. R$ {4 y5 H( E- u! Z
* t0 w* g! x6 [
  L7 b2 k( A# Y' \Background remarks1 n  S7 {7 U, i4 j  T8 W
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
5 ]  R: m" P, _. z' aas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
" ], \; n$ i. e( {4 v' |! U Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
3 P8 F/ }# S4 v* W; A/ Eadjustments.
! a% ^* U0 t1 o; L7 e This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
4 C: i. ~; D% v# qsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
+ v3 y  L7 [* ~" G# L% ]; J  b# N Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% ^# F. A: s) ]9 Plessons to be learned from the frontrunners.4 B6 q3 V1 o1 N0 x+ n) P- ?. w5 }# B
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
* K" X3 J/ C% Madjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.+ h* P) E3 w7 X$ Q& @* d
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
! k$ g; K4 [7 E! Hquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
9 v7 e8 a  u" K Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
0 h! h6 T1 |4 x) z; P% U, @ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have  N$ [# @, ^5 @0 ^2 E+ T6 k3 s
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' G: _9 M- C( T  q% U( {6 v; C The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 c# c9 ^; H. U6 z9 k: s" E8 r
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may8 F- Z  Z6 O# i1 v6 P; n, k- p" n
impose liquidation values.
4 T# [! J. o* K; }/ ` In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
# c- A/ E# m! D5 {" C  fAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 I# w& ~' v, x The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 s) U, Y3 C! u! @
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets, x/ v; O( M2 C9 ^1 e
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in) g" A. C' d3 s* X
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 e4 l( N' M4 j4 e0 [, c High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 Z, K& o% Y8 n- L1 ?2 S6 A- g
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
1 q$ _& J4 ]- k; x- s1 obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
; o, d6 P- A- N8 h. ?* X! h4 Y2 Uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) n+ Q: X# t7 t6 O+ C. |' [8 }& p
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& [) Y; @3 L1 e6 k2 y. Mpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.- O2 z/ V. F0 Z! D1 R
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: S( D& A% |8 {& d. `
finding financing.
2 h- Y4 l1 v, a Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; Q9 D: D, p3 R7 v
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.  V  e6 \, Y" k$ O& G+ ^. I. C
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, p0 L9 I( D1 Y6 @) dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
  u# c5 ]. A. d- \! t* sgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for  o% L- }1 @1 F' G5 D5 j3 g5 I
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
' L' ]* i4 p% i' ~6 ]6 [ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) `# y- n/ ^# k& U6 y% ktoday.
2 f5 v/ [( J" c Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ h& K( O# J" o6 J/ I9 A! Bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
/ R. [" p1 p( l# l8 { Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ g4 h! ~# E6 {% T  p  jthe Greek default.. ?4 \- i, Y' @; ^' G4 S
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
3 F0 b. @7 l, W  C: @0 _$ D1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default% f, d. Y1 S: {
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
% l# q7 t% X* h) M! B. vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.4 m- e% Q' j8 B& O
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
+ \  e- d; ]) i0 s8 k. f5 Bbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years  Z% G' R) |$ N
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.! }! Z8 {! h& E5 E

- I' \" \' j: S' X. ]  ABeyond Greece
6 p. z# [( ~8 [8 E" A& j The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
  R* {8 m8 h4 gbut that was before Italy.; R: W# x2 b4 O) t$ N/ @5 O# I
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% \8 e1 V7 M  P% x3 q* r& c It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
1 _- J& Y; [! I, I0 JItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.! |& }. A6 C7 ?
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Conclusion$ w0 G" [! ~2 q/ n9 L, T' l
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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