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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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9 O! a2 V2 @* f3 H6 b, H8 [Market Commentary
  N' U4 C+ L. t3 w0 B! DEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. w, _4 T0 }' m; ]# ^7 ?$ A, r1 IJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager2 c4 f, b7 g8 m4 m
Signature Global Advisors; _8 |* m; N( c' h5 R
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Background remarks; a  j+ p" X0 `* f( J7 m3 P' l' D
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, e8 q/ y# D* g/ Y( F' g
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
+ {9 C; q' S- N1 W. e9 a Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
& j6 {7 [( ?0 \# B0 s$ E: dadjustments.0 B5 Q, V1 _+ i  p% B
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! @" G6 c, O$ n1 M7 s$ Dsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.7 k# l2 f0 U% M( K" o
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are3 w  q  k8 I% G! D1 A
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners./ ~- m* ^2 b! Z$ B
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 l* q# n" ?0 F9 M/ T9 J) j& Z- [
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
. |* t" H2 [* n: B/ E9 A7 C Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" J6 a* k; a! ~1 L/ c
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
1 `7 u% H! `  |- ` Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
6 c# ?6 g1 |2 \/ h/ j# m6 w: p* T Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
: n! s% j7 k0 P& y  M" areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
  m) Q' S$ Q; _6 L The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* t6 Y* ~' ?8 F' b$ R1 uas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 A- @* Q! K+ b5 A1 G
impose liquidation values.
- g* g0 L" s2 ^ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In( w5 H1 t) |$ h+ ?8 Z( j6 q! V
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 @& i: d( d' Y4 d7 F
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 i7 H0 c/ R' Y/ |- Gscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; [5 |$ i; @" j" w) m2 g8 U
9 i5 _8 y7 h) {6 Y8 P8 |
A look at credit markets4 E3 J0 s* j- t$ A) d
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# D( B( A. h# X5 k5 r0 NSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( H; }$ N2 s* s5 {8 e+ L High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& u1 j! @+ p; W6 [) K' Gthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1$ x. q1 ^" E+ K; D$ _# D5 [' @
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( h8 [7 O* t- d; T/ z- Faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, X' X3 n) I' V4 Q; x5 X6 q* T" m
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! G: r$ U7 e- V* R5 q! R+ Y9 z9 Xpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! N. y+ t- K8 x- m0 @+ _ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble) b: i( s* ], r- D
finding financing.
4 A, J) t( |% g/ c& d* T2 l* ^4 V Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
& s+ R* N! R+ xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 `/ ]2 b" k! t Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( Z- D0 D6 V" F* k$ N2 Z' yis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
' R/ S; o1 A% N% ~going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, [* B6 `& c& g. d- [! W6 r
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
: b" r7 b( _5 @0 T$ L European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
$ P7 u- z, x( z7 jtoday.
% B& Y( Q9 V: a4 o. j Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: P, a8 Q8 Q) v9 ^
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 C% e  Z7 {- A. ^2 _+ m# ?3 X Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for7 |2 R9 j- Y9 c" O9 W
the Greek default.% w& s/ e/ F& m( X% p- A; |
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
: h+ ]1 S3 e. B( v9 V1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 q# B: i  @. y2 d9 ]3 t: p
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ O. g. f, H' O/ E0 _3 qdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
: C) D- P4 H- l3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
, S$ D- v8 z/ A, V+ _+ Bbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years& W, f: o3 }0 ]. ]
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 N. W8 z$ M1 u1 l; E
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Beyond Greece
# ~. a# d1 y, h8 f' ?2 A( A The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
3 f- K/ R" i+ h( g% ~; Wbut that was before Italy.% O5 i: {# \/ G3 P8 d
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
* H( O+ G5 L0 H  B# N It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; h+ v, q9 ?( t  q
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.; C: d2 I. w7 j, R
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Conclusion
' }: z! j* C! f- G7 _& W. S We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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