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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' S6 P$ \# ?3 f- L2 O7 z' E( m; @

" G( C* g( y: p; F4 D% FMarket Commentary9 O# T( N  A! I9 m, R% f, r
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer' b$ h% H4 M9 J9 a' |& E
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
4 ?  o& L0 X% }4 t: HSignature Global Advisors
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% M# h/ P; u" A0 q9 [; \. \/ F
7 `/ N+ d6 ?6 D/ p" ~+ y2 X, \Background remarks
& o4 n5 ~. Z9 G Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are8 @" x: X# z0 Q( ^# Z
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
& s0 v1 x/ n* i. l! g Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal. B$ d! D& ~: l3 k9 l' B
adjustments.* F& D1 Z0 P: _% n
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
* u4 ]& Q, k  q% g9 D4 bsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* o+ N) U4 @, N/ }4 o Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are* _" z( m0 X5 O0 p, R
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
, U7 c/ M7 C3 n& F2 ~2 z We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% N5 [2 {. v- H; B( O) T. S
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.6 m7 u; I, Q/ G2 O+ K" j' O
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 n- d" s1 M) |/ b+ y" L; bquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
( M9 B% x: C7 n$ n" _  O8 S( B Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth." G/ }) o1 B! ?% _7 ^
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
- X8 }4 P1 z2 X& Zreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% X4 m' U' j/ P4 k. A2 q2 ? The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 b2 o3 q% R/ t1 d0 Xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
& y1 d. p$ G) g  {/ L: ?/ ^impose liquidation values.8 l+ q. @5 R5 D# L
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: k6 p! w- d9 R' @& e" l9 [August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- b* i( \4 K! J6 z$ `5 `3 h) R
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
: A% T* r; T4 ?+ I# T0 O" O$ Cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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5 s8 t' _- U7 T% l2 WA look at credit markets9 H# M" \5 }6 T" w- G# b
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 _( U. E* g# o5 GSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.7 a/ ?% _' j$ `, Z  }; t2 X
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 U0 q; a) T, {2 V6 q
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1( w1 o# ]9 d8 {- W6 Q: W$ y0 a4 X+ ?" a
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 I  z$ r! |* C9 S7 R0 g
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: |. f2 @4 g( j* c4 h
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ p& g* t, R9 u9 D4 T6 p- w" o( v' E( dpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 {8 p9 ]  D( I  x Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! t5 Q5 Y; e4 q1 Nfinding financing.( K" C1 p% Q% T9 E& B9 O
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ \3 ~% `# K7 d& b6 Q; Q, z; Awere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
/ }8 H3 \) J: v+ x Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
- K2 c( P( v8 m6 L4 zis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were1 K6 d" u; ?% C# |- r7 D0 _
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, J4 z: R; K2 v
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 [2 C+ m! r3 T" Y: T* ~" z! g. u' S
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
8 p2 e7 I8 a5 z# xtoday.
, a( J( \; P6 o2 r5 ]& e Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in7 }+ r* Y( s2 A8 J1 Q8 J  E
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" B3 H1 g7 g. j8 m. K; a Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, _' c% ^" @/ Q% I/ ^9 i# x9 ?  ]1 S6 athe Greek default.
! j  w& H" L7 H5 u2 `5 S7 q* S$ x As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
2 @" O) N% ^7 |$ b! f, {. Z1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. Y+ r5 I9 ^2 j! e0 B
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. q! F4 k" q6 P8 |debt stabilization, needs government approvals.% x/ A5 e) D) ~  x2 f/ N5 R
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing. ~  E$ C9 C" h/ E
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
8 k2 t/ K3 u& N, Q' G4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.# C8 n1 R) ]4 M; V. t

2 K* y5 ?4 i+ a! {: h$ G$ tBeyond Greece
# w$ `( m1 M8 z1 Q; M The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
7 r$ Q. U% }. R; G& K' Qbut that was before Italy.& s, _* n: p5 p% R, Q: R9 _: z
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.5 H$ D# k: x& Y) }
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the6 A" [1 D- _- T% g9 P1 O
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion: c8 e" E# K% |- D4 A
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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