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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation c' n6 s9 |! s1 G
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( H1 f% v2 s j* Ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ Q- n* d! T6 M! b' a" a" Q# Y3 cimpose liquidation values.( G, d, x6 `! U1 O, X, V2 l
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' P5 ~7 A/ K8 f; o: YAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
% y4 v* Y2 R( p4 [' m The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 `& S2 j( b8 E; lscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
1 t- q" Q7 Y8 x3 ~ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; Y9 [% @$ _$ `/ _! K6 ?1 k5 R0 TSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
" S3 W7 h, s' e1 D; D; J High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
# d' ]" P1 Q8 R3 Bthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 r* J6 X8 Y4 u1 A& A" N0 abillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have/ |) e- ?: I9 q; m
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; _3 d7 X% I: C- ?, i# NCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 S3 o. e) A1 C# h
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ x9 | \/ G7 o; t( b8 X( K
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
2 Q# K; F, i7 u0 ?8 Cfinding financing.
, v( W( a1 f2 l# B3 [ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ U% f" _4 m o* V. W- gwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! C } l% b$ R# ^ U* ^
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 `( x! a, c. \" T% e m1 Zis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 ~7 i, U# Q/ N" I2 bgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 O* ^8 y- ^& ?# }0 Ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.9 Z3 q* i% O0 D2 h$ s
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain ]$ U) u: C- l$ \; J0 Q! X2 x
today.4 I2 Q( T; a0 ]+ `
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 f/ _, x, ]- Lemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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