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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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8 e; _0 }8 {# p2 Y* D* e; n) B% XMarket Commentary
2 W0 ^( B) \5 {$ hEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer' G- M- R6 r% H9 f: R/ v
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager& v7 f6 n7 I& [* W' K9 C2 g
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
* T  G. p7 K7 }& x% Y; x' I( G6 R Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are& D% C; D: K6 k
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
+ E% n$ ]' L, ] Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal: Z- K0 \2 h0 K( h
adjustments.
4 L4 C+ R1 ^; N% X1 d( [ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  C0 s+ U8 T+ |* F7 r) r3 Fsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 h' Y: V2 e1 c! O1 g+ N- j
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
: s- u! l' q; tlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.& G4 K9 R% U2 X# K) s0 G
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
* t9 k; i1 O0 o7 \adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
5 R' S- \6 `2 s8 M+ T Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& _1 m! u4 w# U% s1 t: xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
! y1 u! Z* X# Z! | Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.4 d9 i" Z1 `3 l: R1 o. p8 y
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have2 e/ ~7 X7 W) v2 a" `0 m( s$ Q
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
/ k. a# M4 b; ]6 J( h The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ ^) R8 Y5 Q9 ?7 A+ Kas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
: P4 D* {! }+ U4 {; iimpose liquidation values.
. F6 s7 H3 z* q, I& S In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 y0 c6 l6 a, p: z# U6 Y+ M
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ D' F# ?& K2 h3 u9 b+ m7 S
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! D! Y) m: x% `, M/ W8 Z& escrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets- J( a; U4 ?' [$ B; i
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, ^4 U# [1 i" m! ISeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
; l6 m$ {$ T/ N7 V6 d& i High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; C) i. ~- T4 O" @, j: K& K) n' rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $14 V: h6 `6 }& g+ A) G
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have% Q2 Y2 \/ c/ \* h0 x
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 S( G' X2 f8 k2 z' }2 G/ v
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" i* J1 z1 B3 n' |% t  X' X6 Wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 q# {! X1 r8 R5 U5 |3 w5 H
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 e  l, W4 y8 L
finding financing.! M) i! e0 X8 k
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
7 U( q, Z5 `4 ~3 ?) [/ _were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
+ r5 V1 ?" ?  A' u' u Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and: r. Z* b  G. H
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; g4 k9 M/ R6 T& [0 f' Ugoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
$ _& d( x5 Q' L, hbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
% _8 M8 Z; }; Q European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain: h, g" ]  [  o+ T5 t) g; [" i
today.
( s1 m9 Z* Q  r8 L. b+ _! ~ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 S, z% ^- C" ?& W2 |& h" }emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 I1 z& i" C! Q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
! U3 |0 g: p3 M- Q! X2 Rthe Greek default.( r/ L" _, E. B! _: K
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
3 n7 e; z3 l; w6 H2 ]1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
8 m8 y/ B1 d# ~5 ~& C& O1 r( D2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
5 l# N* o  ^6 L. f: W; Wdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.) s- B6 _; M4 T& x3 ~; C4 r0 h
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
+ W$ d7 v1 p3 x# h$ J' ~banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
9 i/ ~1 a/ Y+ F/ b( a+ M4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.  R) K% Y# U6 d, E

5 J9 o) q3 N# ~" x8 {# ZBeyond Greece! E: V2 b0 X# y6 ~
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
# x& y3 \4 F/ y" _  a/ @$ {5 Ebut that was before Italy.: b8 {4 i9 _/ s5 E% F
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- p$ `9 l$ H3 j4 i6 _: z- X  t
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
* f) G6 N* _1 F. OItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion! D* P1 E7 M' D) m
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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