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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation7 B2 s6 C, k4 f/ U
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* p/ n$ |( p' U+ r+ U$ u) pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
9 [6 m8 l0 A P/ w+ cimpose liquidation values.6 }3 o2 ?6 W0 O" O4 W0 n h1 V
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' L9 j! z8 n' c3 ^3 EAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) O& n* o, Q2 L! |0 M The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
+ O! W' g) X8 `scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ U1 H* ?9 S4 p: [: p, C
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A look at credit markets: q/ e, s0 T9 g
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 P" e$ Y. M( Q; d$ q+ E
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 b3 j0 p% R( Y8 r High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%1 F2 e& G! `2 m9 V0 \$ a" Q% g- _+ }5 W
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
- y: A6 Y6 a' w5 j/ Lbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
9 R& o( G5 ]2 @& k; [6 haccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade0 d% Z/ C( ~6 G. r- ]
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! M- r' j3 p F$ x+ _! u
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
2 ?0 e$ b8 P9 S5 B Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble5 Q9 i( j) N$ l' L: {- D9 U; X% ?
finding financing.3 _5 \8 F5 t( X% n: V W: u- x/ s! F
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ t% U' a: F/ H7 F0 q' X0 }were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 @% V8 k' i9 R
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and; f4 I( y9 o1 t. G( _: a$ c
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& l" x6 V. h7 O% Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) J l$ Z7 L* T1 Z: H+ P: r
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
e7 n! ?! R4 A' e" a European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 @- s$ ?2 v" G, t/ rtoday.$ N7 A' d; v2 a# |* c
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 w( n& H$ w ^+ q# E" S
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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