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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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( {! |6 {4 @0 O1 M$ XMarket Commentary. r: J6 u) ^1 ]7 C
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer( N. W* x" S6 R5 @/ J5 r$ K
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! p! D3 G! K. f" K) k9 jSignature Global Advisors
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  V7 e1 i: [' c
5 v$ Q% M- l) O# q3 w( m, mBackground remarks
" Q& s+ W/ X& k; ` Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are2 {2 \- }7 `2 {! F* M
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.. ^3 D4 P( k6 |. I% L
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal$ H: I9 [6 a% R! C/ l; r; L
adjustments.
: L" N" X+ ^3 H2 j/ O* L: Y This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social1 ^- E6 Z# j! t' Z" _
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 `0 V( ?, V- e6 j7 a9 h2 o5 b Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are0 @& Z0 v- A5 _- }
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.. P/ @4 E7 J1 @6 L$ ^
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 Y  i/ V9 Q5 L7 Madjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: H$ k7 e, s# Q* L+ _% Z Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s+ y& ?$ `: Z8 D! Q6 X: r8 [& ]
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. |7 g. |% L4 S5 x  S Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.$ n. m/ ?* ^" _* T2 L
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have3 C% H  d/ l' ]1 r1 e
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation6 u, S5 C8 I6 n3 D4 ?. ~
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long2 a) D. t/ i+ W; |' y" ?) P
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" }% X' Q8 ]2 C. G6 B! f- J! mimpose liquidation values.0 ]1 l* @& Y& A
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In1 ~7 q- J# N0 ?7 c3 q8 g
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." F, E. ?' y3 ?- g5 E+ j
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 A9 u* m/ w) u( W* p" z* }* Xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 ?2 Z% C  @7 }$ E) e) D

# w6 k$ u7 ~4 J) KA look at credit markets
2 B$ {1 g: ]" ] Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 {; s  {7 r' K
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 ]2 a% y0 T4 s) |2 Q# U6 _* Q" X
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%1 J( w1 a# L4 H; w# D
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* H: i: W9 ]* |1 I" m+ y! _& ]
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have% f9 _( [' A" i  l
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 I6 j/ ?+ ^: m7 Z! n
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 U3 O, L! D  X. }3 Dpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# ~  ~: x' E/ ~$ G, w
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 e+ v, v" l% u: y
finding financing.
2 {2 e4 ~0 `! ?$ J5 X* n( x" @ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 D9 m& l. X; U2 o1 s; W& \
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 c3 c: ^; F! [) O( m" L
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and" @. `# C; W$ C3 n7 Q( e( H# H
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 E) x% y- ]7 A. Y# n: Tgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for$ X1 [4 s' v, Z' f. d6 z6 I
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ V- y2 f6 q  q7 ~0 f5 F8 s European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, B, v& }+ c3 R, G
today.
, n2 L$ V! t0 j, e* C Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
- ?" P; z" z0 T$ M6 p) y: Cemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
5 L$ b4 K( y4 z" D9 z0 f, S Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ N& {2 \- g! M' g. l: @the Greek default.
7 e& l9 l/ A2 c5 {6 y6 M- l As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:0 W( F9 Y# ]- j' `% a& J0 h$ `
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
- ^# }" }1 f& |2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
& x2 i# f  r1 k1 u, v7 Tdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
* T9 u5 b$ U7 s+ O& V$ v3 s5 r0 W3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( {3 @7 [3 \. c" B7 R; Mbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years. [& I1 _+ m# H7 `, m2 l
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.  s( Q( p+ @7 R9 `) g7 z9 Y. r* O

* }  ]$ Q9 N7 v# j! ]Beyond Greece
( H, Y+ y8 G7 U* M: s" o" U The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
+ l' C. }) h, }% dbut that was before Italy.1 B1 h3 [- q/ g# m& z( r/ H, e0 u
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS./ M4 J0 g( z$ ]5 x, n( {1 K% l, M
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the  A! ^* R6 K! Q
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.  \7 R9 z7 J8 H
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Conclusion5 n+ t4 Q$ s& r5 i5 A6 P; c8 @
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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