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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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9 i; j0 E( k5 _% nMarket Commentary
. V& ~# c: K6 I) v) nEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. u$ A8 l5 E3 k/ x. nJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 V0 |& u' S5 E7 e  X. c2 cSignature Global Advisors9 V0 C* f. U& y& E+ E
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Background remarks. W3 D6 g' ^; B$ p- N
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ R* n% g; W+ Y# t! Q( {
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP./ l/ g6 F: q9 Y3 c! K$ d0 a5 @$ L. _- H
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal$ G7 g  n. r0 n- X* K0 _
adjustments.
+ D) H' t+ t: {! d8 n+ u& J9 i This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
' m6 F+ Q$ N2 H6 U6 `4 Zsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.1 R# T5 t) Z8 c& V* g, t
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 m+ b' ~  a. b/ {0 B' X
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.+ A7 ]( q1 T" c! f% p8 ^" w' H' G
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
  O" p8 r* g* Y# xadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage., o$ A0 B9 [+ d7 x8 w+ c
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
% A/ Z+ h" `4 Qquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.! @, X$ F& V$ x. ]/ X, ]
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) s$ m) @1 A! \5 d6 e2 ^3 O Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have9 Y$ [( Y. ^/ r. G' P$ }1 a; e! [
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
$ u* e& _( {  Y9 I$ n6 ] The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ l! j) J* B( j) b; _. W
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: o) w0 \& ~1 V2 M% Q
impose liquidation values.7 L& M4 w$ F! |0 t( w2 B
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! Y  F5 a7 F6 Q9 J1 S5 W8 NAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) o8 I  i6 n6 [, [+ q! }8 n+ o
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 t7 D; {& f* w$ E# \7 b
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) j$ C8 N6 n# s; d+ b9 V
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A look at credit markets* Q8 z: m% c) S; M5 t& I5 i
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 V# E* M& V( a* j- |
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
' y' I' B5 n, H+ B3 e; P& X High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; m, o" m! r, m) |- a" M% Othen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
" \% h# W2 t6 T% j# \billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
9 y  s, j9 q6 ~: l- eaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 m) d/ w& {4 Q8 ]5 s& `8 u) wCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ M7 x* k) A! Rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.' n2 E* R+ K: t( V
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 ~, I: x0 s1 n6 I" P
finding financing.7 G. v. ^8 O6 [/ |
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 S2 H. w# |% \. y# ?were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
( P' |$ x0 u( C; y6 W; q  n Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
) Q  H. E" R, F$ C" b* q+ F$ Kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ |; j$ @4 w1 a5 A* U; h6 _9 Mgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for# K) h# f/ Z% w& y% E
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, U; Z' n5 S2 F1 g" y) D European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ r. d, Q+ j: G, @7 j
today.7 Y1 Q! f, @! P) D! e4 e
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
7 w& a9 ~1 m# A5 R4 Memerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 N, N, Q$ V, L. |- t: A" t4 P
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for  }0 E( `' p( R, X
the Greek default.
! l  F+ G. G) @2 i3 n As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( v  I4 M9 `' {; `$ g. P! |1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
5 q' l6 \* Z, V8 R2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign* k, P0 h9 y6 D8 \
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
9 I; d" C9 Y- `5 N) F; X3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! }+ r7 f# B7 B, _/ ubanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years$ H8 W* p7 e) J9 N! Y6 |* u* L
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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( L4 C; _. S/ E! r- MBeyond Greece
0 ?: C5 C: o' o$ f7 e( r The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),4 D0 I3 y% o. \. S8 `, Q
but that was before Italy.
3 l, s' V" g# r+ X0 W It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% H! n+ ?4 i; m8 f It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
0 _0 ?8 ]9 ^6 MItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( }$ w* o) z6 l6 |( e( d) B% I

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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