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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。; M+ v3 Q7 V- x
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Market Commentary% e5 U: O, C3 O( ]" [
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer  A. E* ?# j3 O: J+ t
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager3 A1 \: W7 R9 o( C
Signature Global Advisors3 W% W  C7 R+ G7 W0 ~, b
% l" W0 O2 x: ]/ O1 D

$ v' S$ q- R$ q. a) N0 G+ i2 FBackground remarks$ M) K" s$ R! ?) B
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 R: Q1 N: J, i( D* N% Qas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
" ?) T! ^7 n2 Z6 P% N Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
. F; h+ C+ R9 P: p1 c# Badjustments.
8 R9 X& ^8 G* \' B$ p This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ J8 {9 H8 u* M+ Usafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.1 f0 y* z; Q, B" t2 ?. m
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are4 A4 G* i) n- R4 }" _$ v8 g! B
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
8 S# V5 P- E5 \9 ^* \9 v  ? We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
4 E5 J+ s) y# ~$ gadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
' W: C' E3 o7 r* g( B6 j: S Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s& \2 i; n# A7 D* V# q
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.+ }: y7 M  U- V& G6 @, h
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
7 {' d0 S" O& w; o# {7 r4 k2 G Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have: w: f0 B! @( {$ |$ u* m7 `3 P8 y- u
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation& g' I1 m* u1 X+ ~* i7 F* f
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
) W; c$ E( p# }5 s- e. z' J5 Yas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 J7 W' a, u; ]( L
impose liquidation values.; z9 ?! z6 v# K% i. i
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. |) j$ f6 C8 \+ y3 @. B5 g( \August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.0 |4 a" h0 \" T5 O5 Y6 g9 _
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension* r, `$ g9 G9 G9 |! e: c
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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( U1 d% y/ p1 l, r% NA look at credit markets" Z8 D: i( H8 M- b; Q" K
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 O6 }/ L( S3 P" v- t4 sSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.1 e' k# z. \! W$ z# B' A0 g" h
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
, p/ e8 `% s3 g2 y, I2 X" \then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% }3 S- `2 @8 T* o% w+ E
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
. \: Q+ R; y% u0 @access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 _2 a) K3 N0 L/ M! u
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 F0 p/ d$ A0 D1 x  R6 dpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
+ \* P: v! D. ~8 r* [# d Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 `  o6 D* v& T& e, D! J
finding financing.$ v3 D* I$ L: p: L
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 }' B. w5 o6 W
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ R/ ~' X- ]/ g4 q+ q
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
4 Z# N# J( x4 P& Z  Z, Sis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( a( H6 O; Q9 a  j
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 J, @- O, N) y+ O$ l1 S
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' S/ D: q6 W* n$ Q, N2 V+ W
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- j9 j  ^6 J. {) T  ^/ }+ [
today.! t* U- `2 ^% R: y/ i1 v- O! {
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 e! h% ]% v' t" \9 O% i) memerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda  @9 v) M1 `, t: N
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for4 A7 l* U( }1 `
the Greek default.3 V  A' C  Q2 u
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
! N& n, j. B/ ]% `* {. b1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default0 h3 w  \6 b& Y& Q
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
* \$ s, f0 [1 }! K) Z; y9 V! X7 vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
' i' H5 Y! p1 F- _3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 |; F/ {% J9 K; h
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years' I0 u7 \0 F/ Z& C; P# L4 A: w
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.1 ~! y! d0 I* r7 V( B( H$ F
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Beyond Greece9 w3 p+ f5 r" T4 z
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),8 V* a; G/ Q8 q. x, M3 x9 ]; A
but that was before Italy.0 @( L* d7 r" G+ j
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
5 s" k( a8 [, [) w9 u4 g/ R It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
+ ?* S# T: J6 G  T( K4 \* n/ x1 X3 [Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
) K2 W, l9 H% P/ v6 ]  A! U8 u, Q1 M4 V: B! @, k5 t8 ]
Conclusion0 P4 T1 @) \$ d1 O/ n' r% q3 `
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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