埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3026|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' b# O$ X7 H8 L! g
* T8 A( g- X  V3 b/ d  n4 I
Market Commentary
7 \# U3 B, T3 l* [; z# o; bEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer. I# H5 L. P2 ^" Z( E5 A  ]9 t3 m
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! c$ F2 N  A: L0 E: ~5 X/ s
Signature Global Advisors! [: |$ h, ?9 ], b# x  E+ p4 ?
$ Z8 ?! m/ l6 P, m# [% u
: t$ @% L/ R; Q* u4 O: f8 t
Background remarks
) V: X4 _: N' Z7 f Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- w, k! V0 Y" o. z5 C8 w  U* _
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.9 x* ^+ S8 X/ Q. m! P3 N+ L
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal9 }' c( v2 g# t* i, t9 [% a7 F
adjustments.
  N, i3 p1 c# o4 h This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% v; F$ [! [# a0 v  }5 ssafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
# x9 Z5 {* m5 F, \4 ^# b Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
4 o+ _: t* @  L0 Q, `lessons to be learned from the frontrunners., ?( q3 r/ O7 _& x6 F) N
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these/ |- S/ E0 L4 X0 ^: t+ k# x
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: g9 m* ]4 T  { Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s* o' |5 \  @7 u" T
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& C4 D  b* [9 ?8 s  F8 w8 W" t
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ n, Z+ k6 v$ t+ g- ^) i7 m Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 S1 w. N, o. [6 w5 freduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
  ~9 [' a! |; ?( _ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
0 ]0 ?  a8 x% O/ Q0 f; o& cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ [8 x) W! }5 E3 L8 i3 \impose liquidation values.
$ \& t- W5 i2 h% ~! C In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In3 P# T9 W" e) g2 F9 W; M8 o
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- b8 u* E$ W' ^& W9 o# t  i
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; z' K  @9 G4 O$ u
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.' _8 v5 N7 j4 l3 j5 |

" f: Y: W8 h9 m; hA look at credit markets
3 Q) R' q/ }6 u* e& R& o Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
6 U; y9 Y% f$ w9 \September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
7 @' ~( b0 P3 W4 T High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%* _  h6 P* z1 {' U" e
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1' P1 |6 N/ P0 H9 }& X; q9 }
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
" K6 u: D7 \# X- H0 s+ Jaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
6 d! {7 k) V2 |/ t0 s6 t/ p+ P2 k6 @CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 O9 }; C* E' o: U- @
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: }( {3 V- \  f Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 N% W, _! o' l; Hfinding financing.) _2 b8 E' b- e$ n4 M, ~) C
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
* h9 g9 _6 m9 D& o/ Y( dwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
4 N" X9 ?( X" W, {. E+ v Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and% r& t: x& U0 S# ~3 Q) w' F% {% Y+ j
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
2 ]# F8 @% N% X5 r4 h+ zgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; g7 i8 ]; W! o1 |* p8 W' W( s# t
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.! ?; ^6 J6 e/ L3 y( A
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ {! o+ e- O" X0 q
today.
% O9 P1 r  K7 H8 g) c6 z! V! y4 I. d Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in+ g( X0 f( E+ X8 w' O, Y  n
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
' |2 H. ?6 i% i# L Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for! u6 M1 z. [  U3 x9 U# u
the Greek default.
! a7 Q; S, ^1 n& w; {3 `/ \ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ f% O* o; H1 _' z) e% K+ s4 R1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. [9 U9 S0 O3 R& Z
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; w$ f  X; s4 S+ U+ M7 f/ j  w8 }debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
4 [* w  b+ e$ d2 l) {3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! [" ]1 Q, v# y. w8 p, {banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 z3 t5 o; x  g  j6 R2 M' e3 Y" v4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets." E' h$ R- C9 \% f, s* l

& H+ o+ g. O- N9 eBeyond Greece2 f4 l. V, Y7 T0 q5 X
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),$ B: r) }7 m0 B- F, x
but that was before Italy.
/ K# }1 v3 G. k5 F% O It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
' u# ?# [$ A; ?4 s  { It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the8 \& H( o3 W4 p3 b, X
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.4 {  H. m; V) l/ `
  ^2 v2 M! [7 x+ r" y! D
Conclusion
% M( f! X# d: a- V+ ] We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
理袁律师事务所
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-4-28 00:27 , Processed in 0.072212 second(s), 13 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表