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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。3 |! d1 A# {7 @
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Market Commentary: ]0 r. \0 Q5 ^$ y4 F/ q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
* Q" D" h) N! @' n+ W& {James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% |5 W$ F) g! P3 bSignature Global Advisors
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1 j# {- a, q9 g. ?# V) ]Background remarks
8 x$ d/ z8 d6 z- f# E Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are' Q& C$ r' o0 G6 \# i
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
/ A! T2 f* g. q3 F Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal5 N/ k& k+ \% i0 K% c* U
adjustments.
$ F) B, h! v5 J8 B This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social  b7 h( f* b  x) v/ T
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
# f+ Q: S" Z) j8 i5 ? Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
1 W, e2 s0 p0 z8 y& Slessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
; M- a$ p- K  r! C3 e We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these4 q$ B. l/ Z& e2 i; w3 b4 p
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.4 k" z& H9 B  b( G4 A9 ~
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
! k- E5 C8 v, P! r% h  Vquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
) S/ N- e* B' |' ^/ ] Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.2 G- u6 ~5 T* M5 Y! t1 e
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
4 S" W) l( [" k, x" P2 areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation0 Y, W6 N" Q0 H. C& n
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- r0 ], L5 k  G0 D- c
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may+ P" X% Q3 @3 s
impose liquidation values.
/ J$ _' [8 C- G) n  D9 l2 e/ r In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In6 v. C; `  f0 U9 n; M* n4 ^
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.; H/ A" I4 I  O- ~! `
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
' L: R! e  J5 ?% X, A" Escrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ N% N$ z- T: E# [3 M! d
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A look at credit markets
& t; ~9 z2 W- E* s3 x4 U Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in' ?- l2 d( E0 Y/ j, c. E
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
3 Y. t  {+ w9 h* N5 w& k* o High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%; l! L- |( z6 {' z5 @0 j
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 p" O$ h6 O9 Z& t
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, N" U- z5 t/ `' D
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
- @* u( S/ @/ E) u- DCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# l8 I& x% n1 a! B+ l5 \
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
9 U. V6 P4 F3 ?% c6 E+ p# ~, q2 ~ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
& f) C* ^- y7 C4 Lfinding financing.  u+ L/ w+ x5 l' v: y9 B5 ^
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they, y5 [3 W0 K# e
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.+ V6 A2 h8 f9 v% n
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 [; ~/ M7 \/ C9 e: Bis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ Z2 k* X3 \- Y
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ K2 D# N' x; U& M* h
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ ]/ P8 V1 }7 r( `# V/ p0 Q% \
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& P" l2 v( d4 P8 h3 Etoday./ Y" \6 ~4 V2 M8 g, s
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 |" Y( v1 {' A; p: a5 Wemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda* r# L' y( ~% q9 ?9 {6 M# E
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
7 S- Y- p+ ?( zthe Greek default.( A7 {) u4 x) H+ q+ v: h
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
* X8 w1 n$ I+ E1 e2 U1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& A/ b" L8 |% S) L3 c2 Y
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
2 z# \0 M; _# `debt stabilization, needs government approvals.- `8 I  C3 \, L6 D
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
# D6 X& F( H8 m$ A" ?, E, Kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
) a. {% R' ?/ G" r0 e+ c* [2 d4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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6 b8 w* ~7 J6 K  \; Q2 ~Beyond Greece
/ p8 p1 L* ?+ Q The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),) Z/ L3 n) r( H
but that was before Italy.8 w' l, |2 k7 V8 U/ e
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 u9 S0 R8 q3 u9 W; @" {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
5 E$ ~* L- N6 x4 A" _# v1 Q2 fItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.7 K! K" J6 z2 X# G  j( ]

# x5 P& q# v# O5 R- a% U8 i; K. IConclusion
( c! g( C" R* w% @/ ?1 F We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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