埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2309|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。4 m2 v9 ?3 w3 e, x3 z  E( q# [

* @2 {7 V9 a7 F1 ?% q$ h: s+ zMarket Commentary
1 Y; t8 {2 k) h: Y) AEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
! x8 i, S. L" O0 \  s6 SJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% M7 W$ [( {5 v" T( Z( d/ KSignature Global Advisors4 N5 |7 B7 s3 u! Z, d7 u

' h+ N' @" W: p8 U4 w! g2 x/ h6 L% B( X5 A, ~" E
Background remarks
. l: q8 x4 d% l% e) c  X3 | Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
) Y! \4 y) ~7 p' u% N& ^as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 |" `; k5 _% r9 i Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal9 C$ U7 Y( w+ g5 @: F0 h& d/ }5 v
adjustments.4 N8 S- l7 J7 ~" S, `" C
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social! o+ |. H. B5 k' {; O5 U' R
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
5 O! {, W" L( \' `) S  V Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
6 T8 v! P+ G' Elessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
1 g9 b& Y* {0 n We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- C/ E. o  L2 j% G" B% l0 ?adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.# G! j( ~) ]6 n
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
# L, k' \2 b7 T6 T9 v1 @quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: d% B$ i* ]# r: ?3 s Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.! U6 [: d+ w  N) [2 {/ U
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( v6 F- t) h! breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation# E1 p% e, M$ e% ~
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
: ]1 @7 j! N$ h) N  \/ y+ Jas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ z" n' g9 K) J3 V: oimpose liquidation values., M& B5 C/ b2 z' H" e5 J$ g1 T7 V
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In) n# G# S- q; N/ k& ]. G3 X( X
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.: t  @% M6 R; L' D" T: k; w* B6 b
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension- B$ G- U3 c2 }0 |
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ N5 B: m) q  |1 S# n5 x8 y

8 V" d- n' \1 `, }- O3 p* ZA look at credit markets
/ K0 q: W  w6 N Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 O, B" e% d# ?September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.1 i! ?, n/ t/ y+ l9 \7 g0 s- X
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%: f  L# X8 G7 \3 e( f' v0 k! l' Y+ F
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
1 X2 t' m3 j; D1 Mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* E9 g+ B1 W1 p# z
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
- M% R1 e: a9 e' e7 l5 MCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, w% |: [6 E4 l  _2 b6 R6 N% o
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
4 t6 V# H* J  Q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. X9 h) Y2 h! }, @
finding financing.
, X( {$ Q1 O) z Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  h. R/ k/ `+ c& |7 \* d- Qwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.1 s. z0 k7 w% @/ E  w0 t
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 F2 ~- l9 K4 k* ]( R! z% }7 ~
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 S. g! t" p3 X, Z& Z$ W& E% j
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- x0 k6 _8 G/ y0 V5 Ybankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
" T- X/ Z- c3 X% M: G& X European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. ]& n- p; N" I- {; T
today.
2 \7 P, B0 _$ u- V% N Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: ]9 h# f/ G. h( X2 [
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
* u# G; W9 q9 @! c Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
) N3 G! \. g( K* p; s3 _4 C8 f: M/ Z0 Ethe Greek default.
5 f. I  o  Z# l1 k; X! C8 Z0 u, P As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:, l) r1 _1 {( {; Z% b
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default: V1 t7 X4 t* i8 x0 M9 r
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
& q# t2 V& @4 ndebt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 \; L0 Q" Q! J8 c: u0 l
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing( w7 u' [8 H) R" u" k* @3 }
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
# ?4 N7 f2 T  P+ I% v- M, O4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.* i# {' V; p! q7 C; e- w2 ], j5 E
. v! X4 P' E" Q( l  ^% Q
Beyond Greece% b. _! F: Z! F/ [
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),/ W! D7 R. g) }5 ]9 U' ]# Z
but that was before Italy.
: _% \" A3 C* X$ b. z It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) G( t* |/ n$ J  e It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the, E# ~8 W1 c7 h/ L7 U8 S( Y2 W
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( @! U2 z, ]" L, q

3 b. H3 X. X6 k8 }# oConclusion
$ B7 `: c- e% M' L) X& j% ~! ? We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-1-10 21:22 , Processed in 0.078669 second(s), 16 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表