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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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- E0 i5 B  `. |  t8 T2 y7 b  L0 A, qMarket Commentary
2 f# r+ |3 [% FEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer7 M# R1 R' c4 l, I2 D4 j
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. A+ y& X8 S  \) I, p( [
Signature Global Advisors
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* [  W7 \2 @5 Z: ?% HBackground remarks3 C, C+ X1 L% c
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- O% t0 n, V6 r
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) Y) p; b$ P6 S# d4 K Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
+ K' }, [! s. u8 vadjustments.5 K: t3 B! d2 ~- q! z- E5 X4 C
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social$ `9 j/ D# q4 J0 T! S
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
, c5 B2 ~$ ]$ }  B- {. `/ z5 h* m Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 ?+ ^- P) l! F9 E" _8 L
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners./ a. v0 w9 @) X5 A- E
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
) Y" i; u3 g% }; U& vadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* S' e& Q+ i! o: E# C/ [ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
/ }. v, [( x6 @$ N7 I, iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: z# V8 R) @- C4 s4 M6 x Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
0 T* Q2 j9 t; v8 o+ ~; } Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
% }% }( y  Q6 u6 b7 [4 areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation7 `6 _! e7 T. e& F. h$ {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( ~7 z7 l$ h! y! _2 _as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ @* z* R" O  A/ Q8 Iimpose liquidation values.
  n& s7 v; _' i% V In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In- B# y. R% {' A8 _( f- I" p! E
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.  d/ v- j/ p* u, U4 D
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
8 W$ ^9 a) h2 Z7 G9 H; kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets6 C  i" u7 O7 J/ `, Q" ]
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 Q  V( a5 r& I
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.7 T$ S3 U$ c' p! h4 C: w
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%+ a: G) ~, g% N6 t3 v0 r7 s' M
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# K! f2 b  _- O
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% |9 X& `! N& o4 O# taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade# J! {; K, v/ \' [! f4 j
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! |2 a- I3 s& R) v$ h5 n' x5 c; x
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
4 ~! F( u/ i7 J: N/ V8 ~  N. h9 v Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 B" A* \, ^# H- Ffinding financing.
* ]# N) Q! l+ ?( | Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they$ p" n% x  c9 i2 S6 \/ R
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.) E- |! m# ]' y) A
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and: t# h& q" k4 I' d6 U4 _" ?
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
: s# ^8 A3 F: C! Z) Q3 lgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
) k* ~) K* V) j. Wbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% Y, t' j% n0 w3 q) ]6 o
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
3 L: D9 Q6 Q3 w  B5 ^# r) X/ stoday.
0 m) N3 y& H0 D) j Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ R  N1 }$ \3 b; n' p: D. J) }: temerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
! [5 l. j* h+ F- T1 F! G1 }; t Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ w1 \8 K- {: I$ a# Hthe Greek default.
2 r# O+ }% W9 s% w  V7 F& W As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
* P& l+ ?/ t1 `5 c1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default) x( O# P2 f* \4 S: a/ x
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign/ ]- ~8 X! o- I0 K( F. m( ~
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.! {4 u$ H" Q+ H, a
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
6 B3 z0 [; o! H& {9 g! P" Vbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
- W0 ]: q# O: w( u2 P$ P( c4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
/ j- @. g( o% L4 ^- b9 I5 @" U The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
4 p* `+ }6 J. [4 k1 a2 F" xbut that was before Italy.- Z6 l! u% t3 u: i/ ]# x- n
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
9 ~' v& r, i. d! R4 W* Y# J It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the0 B, F, w! n! Q( V
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.0 s7 i* _' Z( n7 x: w; U* l
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Conclusion
$ o2 N' |0 g0 n# r( P( q& i8 [ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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