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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
+ a; h5 \. p+ d$ L4 C3 ` The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long2 [9 @2 {4 a2 }3 \1 n. I# |% E
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
1 \3 a6 n0 Z V d4 Cimpose liquidation values.
8 p! w) r) b# o$ r* b8 n In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' ~) B8 a. ]# x$ U9 S
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# k5 T6 k- |4 `* @: }" W) i
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 q8 j3 G/ L- `" G: y4 X/ Oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ r; E9 q/ n" ^# o% k
* z8 {, b- I& @$ OA look at credit markets
; x4 {! T$ Y: h" N( r( B Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
6 `7 Y& l' S& wSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
3 ~; C; z& a( c. K2 F High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& _$ A3 @# v: j* m6 _7 P: y7 S
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
- P" S4 p9 ?( q% P9 Nbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
$ z8 `3 r y Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) `# p4 U" @! C- k/ k" E& yCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* p" ?9 j, n8 W4 \ L4 {7 |. {
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.9 r9 a: i. c* c7 [8 f9 b) o7 a
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( c4 U6 d/ b# e2 ]5 Q f6 T3 e0 q7 L- yfinding financing.
- H: ^: e/ p1 p0 `# `& C- N, s. R Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they, P0 O2 F; k0 O) n% M) b% g/ r) R
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 M, i* K \' e2 ~9 ]
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and: d z) L- q5 G% Y' `5 ^$ O
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
0 R7 U; ^- M- ugoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 I* f. p" |' _" a2 l3 k& C5 m# [bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.* H8 w+ U ^4 C2 j& L& c/ ?4 i
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
; X1 c$ C. K9 ~" T$ D0 utoday.
- S& \9 A$ x" S- [& w Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% }* X0 `% [% t% y4 K
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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