市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors


Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
% W2 x$ O2 C. Ias much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
1 `3 F  ^! E# j  c Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
2 K* D, \0 g# ]& `0 r This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
# O& g) F  {* ^% [; h: ?safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ c* ?3 D" \7 E- |5 b- T We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 r3 N: I0 y8 t5 n% w. Q3 P  k Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
8 n; x3 @6 S3 `3 K' U Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
3 C4 E9 G5 d6 u/ s6 j5 wreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
% ?9 G. j& w8 S' V) X9 V5 @ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
. s+ ?- O3 ~/ ?; k" cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 U# j! \. q1 cAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 q9 T5 N8 G2 v# kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
& ~* ^- O! H0 P
) b) d5 r$ D2 q- pA look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
6 n* ~4 p! R1 q- F9 CSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) _" ?0 }1 k3 m; Z$ T$ X9 _ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
  a! j, o$ I7 P9 t0 D7 Y; v6 H' rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' A# \2 G# l' F. ]: x; v/ l* LCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
" a. d7 {! l: R5 C- `3 F Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ i& X% C8 X% g) _were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
' N7 C! M: `+ uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ w0 d5 G9 J* i6 n# ggoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. L0 T% j5 S9 B: e2 x0 qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% Y! r1 t& q, q: E8 i( stoday.
: O  Q5 }: d6 r9 e0 K, f% \2 U Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 M0 P! A  e+ I: |# l7 p& lemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
, [0 D1 g$ B& h% T7 L Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
: `5 }) P% }  _7 othe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
8 i5 _4 v& u: d5 y. n: |+ [1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
7 R7 J, f; |8 M8 i) i1 N% H5 cdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
" J; e* d: w- A! }banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
, |9 s2 X" P4 f  a4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

: y" _9 B  Q" m# Y# h' q+ P% |Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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5 H+ y& _) x/ ?. |" F9 EConclusion
: U$ Y" b& ?- B" L8 p We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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