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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation2 S2 Z. V/ X1 g, f8 W
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 o* j4 E( F0 w4 j
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 R1 T/ D) o5 E, Y/ k( k
impose liquidation values.
( @2 y7 ]/ f2 Y. L, m. @: B0 W In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 c- V& S) ~% Y# O7 UAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 v" j n# B0 l1 y2 e1 _ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" ~# ~5 T8 ~# Mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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8 s( [# @. a( J8 n4 `" f8 ~2 _A look at credit markets1 q/ X9 G1 Z; E5 I, h7 z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in' T' y, _2 N/ ~
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 }* ^* B, O" E High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 c3 O# y, J: I) q
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
* B- R6 Z3 n1 n: dbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have% M K, S6 x2 h
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
3 T! y7 y$ a- c% QCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are U, V' m: a. j) K. n& L, B
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
& Q9 R. G- t3 [2 @$ V D. D Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ r3 C: M1 d' @4 l: F8 }3 sfinding financing.
`% {% W9 Y& r7 } Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they, ?# D/ } ]" r; Q0 }+ i7 g/ l' g
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals." D s! C0 d2 R7 g8 f8 s8 A. e
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! ?0 {% C4 k2 O/ D: c- n4 @" dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 ^# R4 c1 K0 H& D$ _) f4 K4 \going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for K) E. U3 o' Y5 ^/ R8 m" A/ k- i
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.! [+ a5 x" p* `8 v D
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 H$ G% ^3 q$ Ctoday./ \4 P: `3 {0 ?
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 p5 z p/ B' { Z) g; o; }: l
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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