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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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% {9 V  O2 K/ o$ I! _, TMarket Commentary5 Y7 t; M9 B; v4 N, U/ ~
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& @9 D* k3 O  |2 D6 Q) t7 E4 x# b8 o9 IJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager9 \1 |, Z" l" p8 m" |
Signature Global Advisors
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6 t3 x8 @: E8 |6 l4 k: z! b6 DBackground remarks
! S' a% F1 f  H3 K: Q Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are: k2 h! V  e  w' j
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) U; j% k  x/ m% @) r) Q Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
# d: P: `, W/ B6 r. aadjustments.
, E9 {" H- s2 ` This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social3 A6 L& r% t  m  @
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded., {! w7 |/ e% l+ D* X
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
4 q! d8 l& \. ?9 ?lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
6 |5 {& q. R5 Q, i2 x+ {7 |; Q We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these4 k" o" [& b+ t4 f/ q/ K
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
; G5 }0 t- D5 {" F" `! Q Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s9 c' e) |+ E3 z% ~+ J
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& y* D2 X2 J1 s. m2 u
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.+ O/ M6 H) ]/ W# |8 K4 J
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
' U' u8 X. K5 P+ {: l" Ureduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation8 D7 s' a1 j+ E0 y$ @9 o
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 u* X) O8 M# P( k5 L. L' p1 `
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 P6 L( N; r. {8 vimpose liquidation values.% W  M  P3 }8 Q3 F# A8 C
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; Y: X7 }" E+ uAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ e2 S* V3 h. s  o
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# I& h2 K1 W) }( u( \3 Z# dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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" J% ~4 P4 v9 w) Z" UA look at credit markets
% n: G% L, J2 x& S( f Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
' O3 Y; _8 J2 [: ~September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 N( D: [5 U5 I. u5 q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) ?1 a, I- _: Q* D# T" }9 O
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1  z) f6 ~9 o1 A4 Z7 f( y
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
5 a; V' r- y% f! F, L, G, Daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade6 U; P6 F0 W& H7 [' N
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are) o7 z' Y4 v7 X: d
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield." N" b  A( ~, o! s! V) R# N
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# A- J  x' s- s0 J. e. p5 _6 Mfinding financing.
* z8 O; s& d0 H0 q/ b. L2 R$ Z. ]+ J- } Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) p( H7 L+ t! r- J0 Gwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 F! |1 K9 _# R9 ~
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 p% G  ?) E4 K4 m) S) g, M3 l  V
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were, _1 d2 p2 I2 }4 w+ ^4 B8 O9 P+ v* E
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 d- Y( g0 S" \! V7 e0 P6 Nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.8 P; P$ k6 P5 _
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain4 J1 B3 z& g# D/ \" n8 A
today.
, H3 a6 A+ E9 T6 q8 H Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in2 y- k" F" G5 O' c" t0 K8 k7 x
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda+ i0 R' V3 J( e; @! y/ T$ }4 B9 c
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for- ~" ]8 E! G6 M% J: u4 M
the Greek default.
9 {8 w& [/ }2 y0 { As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 x( c& u: v: o" ~8 s7 V( I* o1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default, e' \8 t7 @9 V- @% E) i% {6 q
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
# Q: G8 |- Z5 ?: e+ l  N% udebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
. M1 L9 e  i0 z8 M# ^3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing5 L3 l7 ~( K5 e' P
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
9 @' H3 }& z* b( q/ Y) j1 v4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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6 Q' ^7 F0 j* s' f1 C' qBeyond Greece
" \! t. @) P: E2 | The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
- T6 r6 R/ T3 Jbut that was before Italy." s5 X9 ]& v* ?. q' }6 C; W
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
6 u8 u" x+ ^* R8 ^+ U It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the# ^' }( U* h  l. r+ Q, s
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.# |/ j9 h9 N+ o2 ]" ]

" Z2 H6 B9 T2 T3 ^6 vConclusion
2 N- Q2 Q8 }& o% O- Z We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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