埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2449|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
/ p/ U  B& @" G+ U, g7 h3 O+ n& r8 R3 E# w
Market Commentary# ^" v6 z" _  L1 p( w% l
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, U& b/ i, I' x8 V9 l, L
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager2 y7 h0 c% R- z9 O, n9 z6 E- h
Signature Global Advisors
+ o! j  n1 i2 N/ z5 d5 S, F: F2 ^1 v$ l% p4 r+ K

# I% y1 w+ }0 L) \1 N5 eBackground remarks
1 r* i5 j. _% I5 r7 }& k! l/ D) N Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) b/ H' d" V6 G% X0 b. [8 g
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) ^; x" B2 O$ t% ?0 ~& X8 I" H Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal2 W2 T" q3 ~! \2 K: N4 g
adjustments.0 O( `7 f# P" A
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social2 c# U  U  a- y. c3 ^
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.$ j/ C6 `% k4 o' Z6 |& f( u6 V
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
4 [+ Q* U% J+ d5 E- \3 x9 Vlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.) v  I4 l6 V  p9 g
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
( @+ z' O( x. G4 r$ D# r0 Wadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
# s0 s1 R* V- C" {6 M Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s/ [6 M8 w1 C, e0 \
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.4 ?# I; k! E) V7 s
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ ~* O! z0 ^- N: d5 S Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* f# T8 x* Z/ y  `' p, l+ w
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
" u# j- w9 u9 z% N' ]0 {& s The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long3 X% n4 w) |; D3 k/ B# _8 n
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may2 d% {! n6 a4 P
impose liquidation values.
7 z( S0 M" G: W; z% w In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 t/ n1 _; x1 q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& S' I$ Y7 b; G; V The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; [, ?% p  C7 ?6 f. J8 U5 S' N
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
" b6 L* D0 [+ M& \. p: _9 E/ Z$ \
: H$ ^( P/ r& B0 S( N, T+ A/ b/ o* YA look at credit markets
$ b5 x) ]6 Q/ r) e2 J% @9 o0 \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  m1 j) G( u# F% O0 ^. Y7 ESeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 y5 H% v* j+ O3 N2 ~* k1 y, ] High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
% r* H' l0 Y" t6 b% j) @+ R1 @: t, Rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 _( I7 C' U, M& Nbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have/ h. [, Q7 B9 J9 J" p1 ~* \8 Y
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
! ^* d! A; A0 ^# FCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are1 t* z* {) R7 _/ V3 x9 y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
( M5 e8 q& u+ ?/ i7 i0 ? Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
- c0 r& V& ?. ffinding financing.
9 ?0 y0 i* @8 s7 m. R$ {% R Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, v) j- p% Z0 l1 _5 E8 l: qwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 D  f4 \( n6 f5 Z7 y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and& \6 ~/ \+ ~; @2 o( D7 w; i  `
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 x# u2 a/ I- S- w; i
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 `% A+ b3 ~/ Q0 L5 p: r1 hbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
/ i; |, c0 j- O( ^$ h, k* n European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ R( h1 Q/ M2 J8 h% h4 S2 A
today.
/ j% M0 Q0 Z/ `: z( z- l3 U Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. p5 k- z" ?/ J1 J* M3 b" v% wemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda+ |/ c0 n8 ^% k4 [! N
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for& g4 [- ?8 A  h8 z! ]6 s. @
the Greek default.) a# K% W6 U7 Z$ X3 d/ d
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:+ ^( s& g/ u! t/ ]
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default$ |/ G6 X# h! b3 v) _
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign/ ~; a2 F! o4 Y5 E; x! v: Z3 R( h
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
. L; x  M" v- a2 J: Z- Y3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
1 A  ^* W$ ?- K* D# j5 x+ b8 Kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years# E! f/ _( O3 a
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
! O9 F: f8 w2 M
9 ]# ~- u6 l; t* {6 \' [Beyond Greece/ Q9 {# ]% L* s/ ]4 o9 L
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),% w1 s1 R% B0 k6 l1 R6 F
but that was before Italy.
# _* \  ^. F3 C+ U It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.( ~* e. d: M5 I
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the# R  J! {; i' A) Y5 [
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further./ g- a8 N: x/ D" x

- I$ P* a, ^  a& y( WConclusion
& i5 J  F6 ]0 M  x We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-1-31 02:41 , Processed in 0.153446 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表