市场评论

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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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) \' }% J2 H  yMarket Commentary
4 t& M4 `5 H& L+ GEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
/ Z4 W+ z( _7 b  USignature Global Advisors

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Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, k, c% _; S# L' t* J Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
" A. R! L0 E. z- Z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
( Z' a* o1 K, Ssafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
% R0 q' g* S0 x+ D5 g) w Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ r; s" W1 B" hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
2 m  S3 J3 F8 Y9 _ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
. V6 Q; ^- _. g$ L' C% l' h* Xreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 N- G6 Y% m) oas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
) J/ w* I7 O; v2 T2 p In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- p2 d. q# B: ~$ b) ~: @0 h" cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

; q: X  ^- ?$ U+ B/ BA look at credit markets
) a' V9 d' k  m/ h- y Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 |9 k8 X: y4 R, {' }. V+ m, Y0 X High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 N8 r3 a. x- V! Maccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% C1 X, p; M2 e7 c Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 y. k/ r' }: s; U% Lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. J) _" i. ^2 c! ~$ k4 ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 _) H* z6 g, Q( \: H1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ F; ?1 h" W* T0 Ldebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
6 D1 f& v+ d/ Y6 A; G% Q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

# f, O1 L. v2 [: D) K; s3 DBeyond Greece
! w2 K0 T9 m$ i/ K' t2 u& v" } The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
; T0 y4 l& A! P: B3 Q It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
8 u0 d, w! U3 `1 A0 W" q% v. o/ u It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
2 K' [) D. U2 w/ M0 `. M We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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