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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation$ H! n3 s' b1 t1 D, w
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( ]% |1 C3 W8 O8 X2 ?; X \as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may5 ?% V/ U7 @) d* @5 g
impose liquidation values./ Y; @( ?3 G. |
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In3 X- J; T" u: j- L# s( u5 N8 |' R# a
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
+ ~ R! A) H5 { The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ E$ Z8 e+ ?9 H2 ?& w2 m1 z) P6 t
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets1 Q* Q" H9 ~6 j0 a7 L
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
+ ~& k2 u" _1 G7 {( J( Z: bSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
- O3 y$ b6 [4 o6 i9 K High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- p3 y, a: d5 G% |1 a) G$ nthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ o/ {7 N: o z1 _billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; Z$ ?# Y" n6 j& O6 Q
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 w" e/ ^2 m q @) V3 c' jCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) B2 b4 e& J, K% qpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) b4 d9 k/ G h8 }8 ?
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble2 Q& o% q1 ^+ N( }4 [
finding financing.; ?8 n4 a- N# @# c3 z6 v
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, {) A ^0 A' E# T1 t8 Bwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* x( J* E4 D- c3 e( J1 m
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
% }( O, b& g+ I' U( Fis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
! I3 c! u% h$ h& M/ Qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
$ @) M; [3 b/ O& }9 Ibankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: `5 K; }/ p( }( h
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, p& d0 {( Q( M2 o& k
today.5 n8 S5 `% s6 }7 I# d k0 a
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in' n. m+ c7 N+ h9 [, w
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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