埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2322|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  N* g9 w4 ?4 j

2 `9 H" V- l- Q* Q( @! W1 vMarket Commentary
! t4 g$ F, P! w/ V8 j  v; k. CEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. s& S4 j: n5 ]9 H) w7 _James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
; s% I* v4 @2 S* F8 H' fSignature Global Advisors
. q) m7 a3 |2 L% ]" i4 q1 o) @
+ D1 Z3 a7 X- L* v8 s% `  a8 q9 s5 c6 M* Q6 Z* s
Background remarks
+ ~% {' n4 q1 h# g" K, Q& V Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are0 k, R* u* e+ X& ]5 A% s& v4 F
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.2 _& P9 B) b5 o2 [' V7 M) l3 P
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal; d! r6 G  B7 v8 ]1 \1 S& `
adjustments.% z# k: M& \" A  v' P  i# b% |  S
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! U4 @1 E) m5 [/ U' K" Y3 M8 F" X$ usafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
1 L2 O' ?3 S! R; a, o, C( h Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
5 K0 H* o# m: O5 _" Plessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
  `) R. a! K. ? We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these( v! a7 J6 s, @1 G& c8 ^5 t7 |: Z
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
5 G: K* d  r  Z3 R, g- Z Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 {# J/ \. a- J7 o. Mquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 _1 x* ^( z6 v. Q* x+ l) V Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
4 D4 v# _$ e& Y3 f6 t9 J7 e* k* p Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
9 c. F+ J  l/ k: n7 Preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 z( o8 P: c7 Z0 {- O* P The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ e9 T2 I: H3 x8 [; o% V1 O# T% oas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may! [' S' a/ m9 l, k  K2 M3 p
impose liquidation values.$ O3 G# V/ o6 F) O+ N1 a
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 W! }5 `& C5 P. P3 X" ]9 O
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.1 p& B6 X2 W: [$ o/ t/ a
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
0 {2 _/ K5 @6 p$ vscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; [( H# [$ U+ E! R9 u3 {" a

7 v" N( A! q3 T& e/ EA look at credit markets+ D$ L5 L6 O2 G3 w& C# Y
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
0 W' R/ e( i" i; Y0 \* t2 dSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
! ^% p9 p5 k2 z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ [. M8 _0 N# pthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. R  w* J7 K/ C2 ~billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. b9 Q+ M9 P/ }  m
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
1 D5 X9 }- A% W" R0 vCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
; X  x6 i8 j- [" J2 Wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
* f; U' y, W# `. I) p Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble$ L5 s# H' V: |
finding financing.
: ^6 d3 }/ v3 M; K! S0 a8 k6 D Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
6 b+ o/ M3 P  X& swere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 w. N' T# J& y2 p% N
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
- u3 g# e/ ~# `% F! m. @+ A5 kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ ?( j9 K, P( w6 x
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; k) U. N! `3 m( B& E" _4 o
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; M' l7 K8 p0 ?" ^+ B European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
3 {& F, |) i/ g8 L! h6 Ctoday.
: f. E* Y/ `, ]0 x7 m" P; H Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
& l: u% f: l, z$ r! J1 E7 vemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
: K# D6 ^; V; K" j2 f3 @" \% ? Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
# J( `: q) H( {  E8 z( ]; T, ]the Greek default.
# g+ {) B/ [% `3 C. R% L, s/ D As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
2 ~% n" P( q1 j  n1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 S* \3 Q" r8 v+ q4 \% V
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign- Q* ~8 q2 N3 S6 a) \
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.4 w7 |6 {& ]1 r0 B
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing' A" {/ f! L8 J  w* k& i- F' |. ^/ D
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ s; k. \% X( n$ c4 Z
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.' X  {7 L! `/ f0 g) ^2 W& r

, C6 S* h: h  h2 V% {+ L: ~Beyond Greece9 i; G- L  ], L5 E& _+ d4 V
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' q# \( ]/ I% }. {' l
but that was before Italy.
' N! s1 N: v3 ?/ c" Q+ H It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
* S+ C7 ^) t' Z8 ]+ R It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
* ~! y" r5 [7 jItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 G; b+ a4 ~, D% y/ y, Q# d* e

! B4 ^; O: [9 C9 R+ yConclusion# I; k! _7 Y" q' T
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-1-12 07:27 , Processed in 0.064347 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表