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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。1 N6 @' J/ p+ G' n6 }0 c5 a1 G. _
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Market Commentary
, V) b! g- @8 {6 OEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. W9 T9 f0 Y  lJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
& {# Z( @) C: G+ l  sSignature Global Advisors) l; [/ c& G, Y( R& T2 [

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Background remarks
8 }& r- O" }8 [ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 o( P% s; J- f9 v& tas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.) Q- p8 j! v/ V& g' f' S4 P
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal' g+ k1 m- S9 t1 m7 |
adjustments.- D: t$ b) e* Z, A) C  l
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ w# j+ Z8 r$ @4 x( osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* I9 f& e2 @/ B Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are  B2 y' O( L! u6 ]+ O3 W2 s, O
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.2 x. p3 s5 Q" f+ s7 Q! Z/ B
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
1 o1 i7 W4 C5 x9 \9 Y  Y( Q$ _adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.  \: W! ?0 q# K
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s1 V$ d4 S  B# F) P. a. k+ Z
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.! a/ N2 I6 j/ G, `* p& ^$ n) Z
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
; {* [# d. J" f: L$ c3 p Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( z5 k0 _& g1 p  K' |1 @8 mreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 `, D1 T6 L0 e3 s9 E4 p5 z9 D1 O
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long2 B0 |7 Y, Z5 |8 n& r6 k. X4 W. Q
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" }1 `" F! c6 P1 N9 @
impose liquidation values.! ^) S0 N; ?, G9 d7 r9 [+ r! u
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
# t0 I: O. Z( e; p7 R0 mAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' P& j/ ^6 L: c& ~1 X The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
5 T- s3 `7 A& Sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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! K1 c# W7 L' d" m  `: nA look at credit markets
: ^9 X2 d1 ^6 B% x" [: n' e# o% R: i+ A Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# u; M8 z+ k  ~September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! R/ A+ ~8 }  K
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 E$ e& M0 y7 n7 |- N- q+ b
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: F; y) Z8 \0 L, {6 T$ C; P/ _8 Sbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. o' l2 b; F6 d3 K6 t
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) Y8 V& ?1 n  x) v8 ], t5 X  I& r
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& m6 Z* P4 O3 b5 U) N0 r$ @- zpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.* X' q7 L+ u7 i8 z- T; q
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 e6 W2 a7 F0 y3 o5 o, `2 i( g, L; I! Vfinding financing.0 A) N5 ^+ S. Z) c& s; I
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they" x! c( \' G( Q/ a# m% C
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 w2 c% o2 |; z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 Z! b" c1 Z! `& o; n# K- lis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
# ]( j0 K* e6 g5 Q4 U9 d9 W7 Jgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
3 ?+ G1 h0 X( {- Ibankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.! {: v& h, j) e. p" e1 O' K& S# D
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* R0 u% B8 R& a/ B3 Utoday.
6 l( M6 S4 C  I: O; X" P! B Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) L' @4 \5 g9 pemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda& B; E% L& q" ~) h
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ p3 J  P8 O1 Z6 ithe Greek default.
7 N( y6 i) E! a1 ?( R/ a- m As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
0 u/ \% k4 d: u9 l9 V8 i' @) d1 P1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% L  e/ y( l' R0 o. q: I2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
' o6 Y5 A. G( C2 c2 G2 wdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
0 Y# x6 Q" k3 g! f3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 r7 W9 q  s2 D" S
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years! a+ t2 ~! f1 Q+ D5 g0 ]
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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- k) [6 u: m3 Z$ GBeyond Greece( G; D; w0 f* o% d1 O/ A- d
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),! u5 E. L$ Q+ b- l" J- D  v
but that was before Italy.
% n  ?& {$ {2 a0 {  j6 ^: R1 v It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! R3 r% r: Z2 z' M6 M. z/ t It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the, z% `* }8 {# M. V5 {0 l- B5 V
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further./ q2 i3 n4 c( f5 |

9 f# }( ?# a) G* wConclusion: k. h6 t! X/ _+ ]& D4 Y/ q1 ]1 e
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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