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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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) x3 {( i8 |* ]0 f. V+ HMarket Commentary6 n! F2 x- x" W4 v" Y1 T
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
* Z$ p9 `% [$ s9 w6 D7 V' DJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager& S" |  v, G' n! q0 n/ f$ n
Signature Global Advisors
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- R" {0 h0 \0 j1 ^Background remarks
8 y. ?8 V# J6 [ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are3 y, g9 h& j( [4 ]+ L! ?1 r% s- _
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., q$ ]/ \) I0 n9 c
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
: h$ V( f- n( L* l5 Y( G) D, sadjustments.% s  R+ }; }3 a0 E7 ?. f
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! i0 S2 s- D; [- E+ ~9 ?7 Esafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
- Q. S) d( Y4 ]4 R Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are1 N: `/ U  {, N7 \
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
1 R% H. P- E" S( o7 M' A We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" G- ], B0 N' G; ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
3 u, W" W9 o8 h- `% S: y Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: Y2 V8 U- V/ R6 s! k7 @quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
) V/ ?0 J% i8 q- t+ E+ x Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 A* l+ g9 A8 T) j3 \4 f; s& J
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
# E( W! X: P: freduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
8 j2 T9 ?, d( y3 F6 t The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 R0 ~/ n) A; t! ]: \
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; O3 t3 D3 u( {& u
impose liquidation values.
! @0 c$ `$ {: g! z4 |; `& A In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' M( F& r2 Q" Q$ F& r  [1 }  I8 IAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." H+ c3 n6 U& H! e; r) r! k  g4 y. a+ ]
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 Q/ J7 K% V% m0 v; n. J4 J
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.2 l" `* @% {# w0 G7 }1 x, }* o

& n$ y" F  B1 D% hA look at credit markets
9 a) O! |3 _5 {+ ~ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ @& {+ T* @. z+ p4 G* x1 A+ fSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 i5 ?! s3 V2 V3 U* B3 B High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 x( P( b% u$ w
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1) Z! \6 v7 j# r2 v
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
" C1 ?8 Q: h6 z, Paccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
1 u7 U$ i+ M+ ~; T+ d8 LCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 l1 }; p; m1 I( e
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
' d& _( j3 |1 r. U9 r1 e" _8 U: K Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 U+ U- ^; ~1 y) l+ h) U, ofinding financing.; I8 q8 N7 v9 S; t. u( e# J- X6 i
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they7 a% F1 ]9 w! X7 e9 F0 O
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals., [4 B+ _5 X' i) I2 X
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) o6 N4 z  s) g; P
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; _$ U4 ~5 _/ F
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 K0 r) Q0 {/ E: g) W- U2 W& abankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& |! ~- Y0 L6 K" u2 Z European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain6 k# j. [  Q  r: h( V) l
today.
* C' Q2 D- q/ Q+ q$ ?$ y. ^) W Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
& o; R, ?+ h7 u8 J( K" xemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ c/ @6 r: P  A9 t: I. G2 r Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, ~& x9 e5 H0 p. X* ^& m
the Greek default.
$ C* v4 Z  Q4 I As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:6 o/ [( g) E7 K2 M9 e& u7 y5 q+ ^
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
; U  D( L4 t1 @  Q. d# b& ~2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign9 g' L! P7 o1 f$ K
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.9 y: m$ g1 g( R9 _# ~  @
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing) `3 O* z  }0 j0 ]
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 S1 j8 ]' x) M) c" w+ n& n6 ^
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece1 F5 h  t0 P9 n8 ~- J1 A$ {5 }, F5 B
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
9 J- b+ W' {2 o) S0 }1 W( _3 tbut that was before Italy.
' Z8 R7 J4 h# N) \ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 `+ _2 A3 L3 [
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
/ }, U- ]6 f3 s) r4 vItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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2 {2 a; E0 `1 _Conclusion, m  ^; n/ n: `2 u: s2 f
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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