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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。/ ?5 `, J: I6 g" W* _  ~7 X

+ _3 x, X/ l; X' [Market Commentary) n4 O: i) l+ B8 w! `+ [
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer( M) {* s( ?. F5 F) O2 ]* |/ n
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
( C- T8 `  R( A5 j, }Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
; l9 e4 A+ h9 Z( P  u Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- \/ w8 A% ?3 G% E
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.! h2 t* D4 A) o/ j
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal8 x  A# P, {1 n5 s
adjustments.
) p# T# V/ z  e4 C This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
& k8 ^0 b" H/ G, Y2 n2 u+ osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.# Z) L% e4 h( R& s# [9 R( |
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
/ W+ S" o% _# u; J" Q5 F* Elessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* Q+ I8 y! `1 t We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these7 d) j# n; a) G6 P& w2 _. X0 t* I
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
6 T# _+ c0 z7 N- R+ R7 r& i# ?9 { Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 c3 L/ r! i- squantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.' R9 G# J- `5 S8 i9 X- W
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.  @: Y! Q" ~) c3 Y. Q* z9 D
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 f' M, ~2 a$ U$ |* r; X2 g( |
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
/ ]5 k# D- K; n. N8 _1 Y7 ^ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long6 {- n  Z5 u  U* I
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
0 x; Z3 a; [5 B/ _( n' Uimpose liquidation values.
0 b6 z; S4 O  G- K- W: [ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 @- |% m# d+ P3 t( M: N0 O  d
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.: b$ \' D8 r$ y) q8 m2 |
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 A7 z- R; v4 h% y
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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2 @: D4 L7 l5 u4 N9 U& h( eA look at credit markets" W- i) {0 p. c6 J: q
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
7 K5 P( @# A& j1 o/ |1 P4 USeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.  B( x2 U. A" ]% u
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 r5 i/ B" r( N
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
7 k, E4 I. j$ J  O% u; `# wbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# f. G8 `% A7 v6 n$ waccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 F# Z/ }0 Z  J' y: _$ J' ACCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are. G2 Y2 W4 l% \8 G
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! ]) C" y: m* d1 h# {! U Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble2 X! [; s8 {9 W& k) r% I/ O: R# c3 ]- l
finding financing.8 L5 t/ [& ]3 F: K! B* ~
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; m9 m5 t+ m  V
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
2 y, |) j- W5 ]4 `) X! S* j; z Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
  Y* E2 S4 Q. C8 V4 B3 m  j$ Qis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
2 o0 k: g  ]% ]8 I7 Pgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for$ A6 R9 ^/ ~( x5 n; H" _1 W( \
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 s( W, z" D: J
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 d% w4 V, F$ ?0 ~0 _
today.; F& p2 i7 s7 I- y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 e+ f; M9 y) C  zemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 O& H  @' o( X Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for% K' P; w* j4 {6 b( ^
the Greek default.2 e6 |: T6 Y: ]5 T: h& O& x
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
/ A' Z: d) N% r" S& c1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default( [& l4 W2 A6 N
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign# u$ a) l+ P5 x& }) l8 k( x3 Y
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
6 v8 y/ I  d  {/ y: p3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
8 N* j9 A- m: cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
( {! y! o$ z* M4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece" f* m7 D2 P/ Z, |9 o3 _8 z* O. n
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
) N) A8 G7 J& G' Ebut that was before Italy.
% W6 O: ^& G% i( n: H1 H It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.% }( O# q& D2 r. M2 i8 {+ R* d
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the/ s/ T* C/ v1 `/ R
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 x3 o& [. e6 M5 u/ o

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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