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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。3 z- J+ j' w- L& R8 {2 g
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Market Commentary
1 b8 l/ R8 q: o3 W" W; [( V% EEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- v, x2 g% D( }. R  I  s; K. {James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
( i- f) l; I+ R; lSignature Global Advisors. a" W# M$ k+ t. N1 Q, ^1 s# Z8 q; J
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Background remarks
' m& O6 w) x; v7 {3 I8 ?" f Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
  f8 N! S& }3 [2 y, r* ?% j9 o" }8 Cas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
" _( @$ z* b) R9 p Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ S6 L# J9 Q3 C8 t1 A
adjustments.) F7 @7 x( B( T+ x2 z
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ u1 t8 x0 y  X6 ^3 J- E! zsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.# O, y0 L& W( u/ j7 V: N7 y# c+ P
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are5 [& V/ H4 ^+ a1 ^  K( ^$ q- f
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
; G8 j" N* E/ U, j2 o& z4 y We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these8 h  b/ C6 i, \9 h; T
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 {. c+ ?1 {/ X3 h3 i/ Q: ~
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
( s6 W  d5 g8 e& C5 P: ~6 f/ Vquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
" ^: U, \* U7 z3 E Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
0 _7 F; d0 \+ h+ ?8 ? Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
. Q* }/ ?# Q% E# Preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ C" \/ }' b; h. s/ P/ p The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
! E5 s# f: U; J( T1 q8 H3 \; Pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" t1 [0 a9 ~3 f4 c2 [
impose liquidation values.
' M9 _8 B' ^8 \2 c+ w- i2 u9 c In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) ]2 K( O! |& K. \  [$ q  l: nAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* V; a$ N0 s1 [5 |% Y' b* n
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension: ~! B6 {9 _; z' }8 m0 M0 o- U
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets., g: Z  h5 j6 o2 [# N
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A look at credit markets0 ?0 v! M; o) M/ ~
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& U  H- d" Z* g7 ]4 oSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
" ?5 n' b* b5 ]: D; L% n2 S+ _. @ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) ~5 `. A# A+ f7 M' wthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ b& D2 M5 z  ]2 `# m% E( K, N* Dbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ L4 G6 z+ I2 S9 iaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; m2 `0 E( t: W: NCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 H* A  K5 `/ n+ K. ]+ @9 _3 Apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.* M" P+ k9 F" A( K/ }3 F
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
  ^3 q; J9 X7 G2 q( G; g6 i- ifinding financing.# Z; }* K, ^0 y
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
& x8 W: U  L% ]6 W4 Qwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals." a! w( o* O! H% J- H& h1 ^
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 z- \6 S. |7 E$ h+ W* W7 x4 w1 D
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were! z; X3 A* q& h
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: V8 z# q1 ?9 p. rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place., ]0 g9 N2 _( C; o  g; y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, c  q- M2 G' L1 ^% I
today.
7 a  l5 d% \" X0 ]% D2 B Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
& B9 x6 d; b" Vemerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) \) [+ X4 E% \0 g
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for+ \' y/ E% Y% R) Y" `
the Greek default.- j" }% k! y7 B! X; v) z& K
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& f) k6 B, t/ A& ~" q# y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default; ~) H' B3 K5 Z) M$ I( L9 ]' M' }
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign9 S' o1 C$ c/ p+ f; Q& Y
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.. e9 P9 P, @: q: {3 ?; n
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
) {6 i8 j, J8 Jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years. R/ s3 T0 q. c& E3 `* r
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece1 A* J0 d  |4 f$ k: h
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
1 m* z1 z& P8 n1 Q5 o, a% ybut that was before Italy.
# O/ [4 ~" [& E4 ^- q3 ~ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 `/ ?( Z4 h  c7 d
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the8 j' i& Y& h6 S
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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