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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation; K* {( O2 M7 W% E8 u& {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long S, F- c- T0 x2 Y$ J
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may$ G6 V' G) K) f
impose liquidation values.
; P: V) J/ y; Q0 ~3 d2 R. j) n- d( n3 B In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 T- M6 Q3 k/ xAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# h" ]3 R) [6 s( v1 g
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension( d5 b3 F9 v' T; o2 M3 H
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets. x4 O+ ^5 v/ _% _3 \6 J
$ c0 \- w4 s4 o2 A* sA look at credit markets' [' c' e6 B( \; M* |% e( c
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 \2 ?! J' D% s2 hSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., g! [3 M6 ^: S' G8 H( G
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7% M( z- y" r8 M3 ?7 H* g0 G& [
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1+ r* ~1 ]) i6 r1 A; x! E- q# `
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have$ n% b5 K- M3 C! g9 i
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade* d) k: u+ @) ^ ~( ~7 X( i
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 H$ A8 ?& i! z6 Z+ f# p/ c1 n( ]
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.9 ~8 n, f8 C. K. S1 o
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble$ K$ T4 Q' F0 l+ y
finding financing.
9 s; I& U+ _+ @8 U Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they1 d% [ _, {6 _. k6 I9 O
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 a% v5 U% U1 C' ^/ Q) ~/ X
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! d# \$ K* ]! D" U0 n; a1 z t) x
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ Q% o4 ~1 t1 B( Fgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. d" h& \0 D# Q; O+ x+ I$ Y
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 W2 n8 ]9 L8 P European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% y$ X+ J& a+ |today.
8 Y+ O( [: q3 o' o/ F Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ G# J6 d/ E! c7 N, |emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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