市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

% x1 f+ o" c1 q/ E$ `: dMarket Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 r5 v. K$ E' D2 ]/ lSignature Global Advisors
) {+ m- }" d" Y

% ~& l. J# R! {9 v" w, QBackground remarks
- t; @! r  X* l" r3 j Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
9 J7 h2 ?- W4 H. W# g- q' T0 t! [ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 H# t9 Q) y$ N& L: Z+ \ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
/ x! T% V$ z9 o/ g& H' ]lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: L. D: k& P9 [. \: o- x We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
& W! V; S% X  t; V# uadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
4 T6 \& B( G/ U- D% B* w Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 T+ n. n5 i" ^1 H4 das funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 t. @  O9 l( q* U The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
5 W+ C& k" }7 u" ~- y
6 y5 Q0 [$ G0 b* m/ l9 `& }A look at credit markets
, w4 |; _9 z, s Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) L) t/ J( R5 ]8 B6 M2 Z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 x8 D' e' v- P6 I7 c; x$ y$ ?then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 e( p( T! h2 v. Paccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# Q2 q0 D7 R# c* A; pCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& X* k. w0 L( g) G0 wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; ?2 x( F0 W; s9 {% U& N Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% A: P/ @" t+ x5 P/ E. H. f Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 k7 V4 B$ |" V, Mis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% }) B3 R4 g. Ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- H- a% N; q5 ?+ w2 @today.
$ }. J6 B7 p6 l Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
( N+ N5 N& S5 Q4 Q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
, V$ k3 Y% n9 _# M% Z/ Y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
* D) r. ?: N* C8 V2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
6 [- N! P  S, V0 v- Z/ j! bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

8 }9 W) s9 m  Z/ j  Q  f5 fBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
. y$ ]5 I; J% W/ |# K It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
  ?1 F3 D( F0 O: [5 NItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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