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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation' C2 g" R4 J' L- d
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- p/ G5 U6 A* b; a
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
0 M9 c( ]# |+ d; Q2 n* q) yimpose liquidation values.
# }0 T- O! b1 I( b: ^( \8 j; Q In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! e* T. ?$ _8 m/ I- d2 JAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view. E) R& c' |! V4 q) y0 m
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# c' C" c s5 y8 ~1 N+ }) escrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( I e7 V/ j) v6 p& O
0 r. u+ b+ k$ Z* L0 b1 x) vA look at credit markets: D2 }0 \7 Y# Q' `8 s: p; m
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in8 \, |) e8 i# U( l, G& f8 ?, R
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 Q: K9 k) L& I( z+ Y9 E" d% Z
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 ?5 q! [+ f% Y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1 i, V& ]$ x/ z: ?" o) R
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
- F2 W6 P* y9 y" i8 J' i) Q9 Raccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) X6 a/ @4 _+ w' gCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 G4 o4 K" f8 d! j
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield." a) H- |* F/ s" n. ?! H
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' T0 f. l, E! X: t+ \
finding financing.
# c% @7 J6 z; j% @4 A* a Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 q2 d1 V6 ]- W; ~0 h! j
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 D, Q0 S' U* K5 G% w Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( D# o j' z% o5 a, o' b6 }% Dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ {& f W- S: [: J2 H& _; Y7 N
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for8 R) V* p& ^1 J" n: W" e, i
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ s/ V& t# {5 N& T European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain1 R7 H8 n5 S5 F7 @5 [; F
today.7 M! I5 f# J) r
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( J& e/ q' U8 f! T8 o
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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