 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation) U, F8 `" g7 O: c
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long Q& k" T& s' r* I3 u; M
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ Q$ |- D7 r, ^( E jimpose liquidation values.
2 Z4 R y' x8 f7 ^' f In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
O; p# Y& T9 O# KAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 v1 Q9 [$ A+ m1 Z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension( }6 y6 @0 j% N1 t
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.& j. M; G# ~6 S6 |9 K
0 @( W C! I8 Y' S( V
A look at credit markets
. D8 _, F& L* C Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
. A8 n6 v7 z% Q1 j0 t w* nSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.* `- o# u0 o1 N% O5 E
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 Y& X. P7 k( Y# K6 l5 dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 ^ W2 N9 G2 W( y* |
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
5 `& W# Y2 [- ?) z; C! ?+ Q' Naccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 b; C2 q0 z$ j7 u! L/ f, a
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 p& m6 f7 g- p$ m
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.5 W* V, w5 o! r" Q
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( m2 ^: U8 [9 Z0 h; Sfinding financing., `! X+ b" `% G
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
( ?7 t& o9 X3 @" K2 z: uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 a1 W2 \. r8 I, H* y- w8 s- ~+ F
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
& {) }% g$ |# e* Ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& E! W7 g- N# U& i/ Cgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! Q; t5 c/ p8 W# |/ |7 j( ?4 \! C
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 M6 @, M- E3 i1 V' K H' C/ D3 }, o
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
6 @8 {, A6 a" Q2 ~; H Ntoday.
6 s7 h3 c% ?$ a5 w3 V9 [' T Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
- `+ W0 m' l7 V* {emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|