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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。2 K- o, u* L, p% `3 T* `

2 p2 y3 @1 O+ X& GMarket Commentary/ ]4 v4 N- i; b' I
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer" j) Z( v* F$ T9 y+ P7 w
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager) J# \( w) d4 r2 `
Signature Global Advisors* k7 c6 c6 }  [

) {. d9 s0 B. O/ @+ G" ~+ h1 h0 d, l
Background remarks# Z1 u0 o- g- |* W0 q$ w9 x; V
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are% N4 Q1 n$ f9 V1 r% g6 w( u
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.: w9 {- z3 p! ^
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
- Z: v# N6 I' X* t. z# q' }adjustments.
' g/ q6 a7 y4 x# _3 O6 n This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social6 H  \2 W  C0 H  f/ b$ |# s
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
7 Y: J! d0 T" D0 E2 }  Z Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
% n$ N+ e) C- r2 M2 ]- g) h  Wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.5 a6 g' M7 ]  \
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ E* t% L2 j6 x$ Y9 ?adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
$ `. ?- K4 @$ r" H2 C  n Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
; z* O# W: Y2 f7 e2 ~quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
; J+ N- W6 I4 J9 B Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ m- O% v5 F! J1 q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have, ~* [( K6 }7 J# v8 B+ N
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
, I9 Y3 K  L; k# {1 \' v The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, P, a  M6 A9 g4 n/ u2 S& W1 ~9 V
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
  h' H5 @7 d6 b' N& Y* P5 V" Rimpose liquidation values.
- t% A. s8 \) B+ F0 C0 { In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 i5 h% ?* m' v& e6 ^; T  a/ _# C1 y
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. K# o) h+ Q0 f. d) G: g5 D The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 y* j' v" |& n2 a8 J7 E  k0 D
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.- L6 {, N) G8 g9 \

1 p' h$ M1 G# M; ^) T  eA look at credit markets$ |" i& T" c5 i, R" M
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 ^, }& P% |# A8 ~
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& _  H5 u! c- Y) \$ d High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& s. d1 P% Q; ]1 F8 y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: q+ }( n) N6 l2 b, \) Gbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have% M# b# K( e1 ~4 k1 E/ U8 w
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
  d. |. d7 F4 gCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# a$ j2 |4 A& Z- \positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
+ C) X. V2 c1 F! ?( X3 ]/ N Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
* L4 p8 g, ?! t$ Efinding financing.2 g2 ~% P) i8 z
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they$ Y. f( \6 \; d; o7 O: n5 x
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.0 U' \! y6 l; ~& b  p
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
8 h0 ^' Z3 Y) i- Mis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- D5 b9 c+ D8 |, j
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 [% ?: C1 Q; F# ], Lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.) Z$ n/ p. [  G5 k7 ]4 D
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 e0 Y% p! }, Y7 r
today.
4 M6 O  Y: D8 ^+ G Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in) ?& ^* E' U2 G" s8 Z
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
4 ~& K- a  e  E; M0 t Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for2 P4 Z, Z8 G) {* u0 C: V5 G1 w
the Greek default.
' L0 C, w' G: P6 p! D/ ^( v$ I; r, D As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
  l" |9 o' k4 P: |$ \1 H+ S2 l% j, D1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
# C3 M2 z/ d/ Q, O$ J0 l% g2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 o9 m- u7 G3 H, `5 `. ^
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( i' h; Z9 i1 p* u5 v+ U3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 k! G# S& C1 Z8 W, D; O
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
; _# i1 O, k* Z# G4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.7 B  ^1 R6 \! Q7 D

7 M; X' z; V  R8 LBeyond Greece
* E4 `# A  Q2 o8 r, \ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
3 z/ ]6 c( `- |9 a( a: rbut that was before Italy.$ G( U) y) a! l/ p) Z  ^! `
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.! s% L% M+ t* t* d) ?
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the# F' Y. `9 P1 x( A! M& w/ y
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
/ x6 f' M' E3 A" R1 ^' F. f! g& |, Q: }: [" X+ g( b; |
Conclusion  {  E1 _, r" w8 [% i2 z
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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