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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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1 U/ s  g! L$ i" f2 S% G* ~Market Commentary0 m: o& ^4 J  E1 u8 u& ^# `# }! d
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ y& v+ y: M) Z9 xJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager5 _+ ]" ]! ^3 u
Signature Global Advisors: s/ Z  u+ z8 ^" z& N" {" ]
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; r& H; E: ?* ]' ZBackground remarks
4 ^' j1 @2 w5 a/ `  h Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
. A/ H+ r; r5 }' Q  Aas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.: F5 l8 }9 g: n- Z9 E. n
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
5 V- ^- |5 {. j% A$ `adjustments.+ m7 Z! F6 E" f8 s
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  Z; B: F' f, y! ^8 _6 Z- w+ s# n: ~safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" k+ K2 y  D; j, ` Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are# N9 Q9 }9 ], ^; M$ K
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.$ y, _6 V$ k9 U$ Q: D: u
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ F+ R* r2 r, m# u: jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.1 G8 v+ W3 s9 {( q# }& o
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s8 M- n' _0 }. w" w
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. u8 l0 d- h" H2 L0 C( e/ y Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.2 A% H- R0 b7 \; g9 _8 y, F. w
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have3 s# [. r) d( v! p2 j
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 ?9 r3 X# L# f7 k6 d0 z! l1 p
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long' E& ]8 j8 d) L
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 f1 v7 r8 E; z: L0 C' C: M& B
impose liquidation values.
, w7 I9 }$ [/ Q3 u0 k: b% p In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In4 r6 W, V6 a" I
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) _0 @8 B% l8 e/ r
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
5 Z+ S& {- I+ N) c  s0 xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# ]8 S" m' v5 v
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A look at credit markets
, c2 E8 a6 D: m+ R  }, r0 }1 l Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ `3 A9 {# }  y/ u1 I1 F0 Y
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 }- ^, g+ N! y  s7 n  L7 h
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 }. C5 B5 B5 _+ q' J
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ |- F- V+ @& N7 I3 [3 H; ^( n6 B  ybillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have  O3 Z# a1 \* s
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
( K- p( c) Q/ rCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ e1 z9 h: m+ R( q0 j9 X  bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: S3 Y2 h- z) c2 M6 a4 u3 r  S Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. p) C' Y9 q+ `& M2 N0 D
finding financing.
* E. d& J. l" U# R# f7 T, r6 M: c Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 R8 \$ [- |0 L# L& \7 [8 }8 _
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 f. P6 @0 n4 W' P( S1 X Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 Y( j% Z" _, C/ ]1 N
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ i0 t+ g, ], w( |- Q1 L( o
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for8 Y: g; {) D. M6 ^, R  W
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place." C: @4 d( ~4 _# e& |2 b5 b( S
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, h0 M4 M+ b' r8 n) qtoday.& p4 Q6 K1 P( i2 G/ f
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
7 s/ ]2 {, t! p; E7 T; Y0 V! vemerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( h: h' T3 y2 }( A8 _+ a5 w Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for$ ~, g: c0 M, X# l
the Greek default.
0 f& {  d: g" e% y7 W As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1 d! e. g. m; G8 U/ d8 g1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& z7 d7 u" z4 t& g# _5 N
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: E8 K0 \: C5 ]. S8 }6 }7 pdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 C4 |+ D* c! o$ ?3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 ]9 _" k3 s& X" ubanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ h# i( _' |$ Q
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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) B2 L% y0 B: U1 y; ABeyond Greece! M! q0 E1 j, q
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),% X. ?! d  }: ~! k- I7 @7 D
but that was before Italy.
' d, c5 ]7 a& e0 p+ H It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- |; U9 |- {9 H0 T( |
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
/ F( Z. j, a6 z& J; U: EItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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6 {0 f2 ]( \& x6 JConclusion' Y- N" V" K  ?3 |, c, P
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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