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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。- ~1 i" L$ B( _, q$ b1 Q5 [, j
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Market Commentary
/ R. x' d* L. K3 O) o2 q1 z- I+ sEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 F/ {9 N/ }8 [' c2 Q7 }- ]! q/ TJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
) D2 G) B7 d$ LSignature Global Advisors; [! b# T9 b* U& K: X

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Background remarks! Y3 l8 D) D3 I: b9 r" \
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
+ Q; g3 e1 j" r3 }$ ^as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 j( H) O4 T5 R# u5 C( S# H: y Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( ?) U7 M9 S/ D4 Padjustments.
  S* F3 b7 b$ m8 r- Q- W This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social; j* `* j) |6 P# }2 x# D) n( c8 J
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
0 b* U. z" O( k+ x1 T Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are, F' ~& K/ f+ C
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
( Q# F: }8 x) \5 v* _9 d6 s We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these. d1 @0 d7 j5 ~6 V1 E/ ?. s
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.. |8 Y- i6 m7 c0 Z& Q0 J6 R
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 d8 q: \6 U; ~  _# U' p' K' O# ?+ hquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
5 C' A. ~2 g  ?8 {* C' | Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.* z1 q. }* ^$ s
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
8 R( C( C2 k2 A+ }: G$ lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 \% c+ \( V- |
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# p9 L3 l# i1 i8 q) j9 R4 _# L
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may) P) f7 S2 S: W; P( C" ?
impose liquidation values.
* s2 V; X* h1 \2 P In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 i: G- N/ t" U9 |9 W: vAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.! R6 f6 b& v/ x+ \/ d
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# B! D* _+ ^# B* {; Q. Q& j( \* mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 R) f4 e$ x- @: _8 o! o8 c5 i! y
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A look at credit markets
- p3 ?: [6 V' M; V Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ o; z, ]/ B, U: S+ d$ T, l2 ?September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.8 p( ?) d$ c- R" k, Z5 X- L
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%' H. Q7 J1 \. G6 J  T" j# |( _' m1 V7 Y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $11 H; Z  k) A2 F1 b
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' R- U9 h/ K: P$ d% g1 q- jaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# i& L- T0 H+ N0 ECCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
, D& t) x" v) q: Bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% q, B3 D2 r: b& Y1 [ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% U/ l/ s" n) H" _
finding financing.
- A% V5 N7 N2 P- Y/ l7 A; y Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they# y8 ^* i: q4 {8 o- r2 R+ p
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.; @0 d4 _7 x( P8 c$ L) v' \; ?9 A
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 i" C5 m) t" l* w( J* i7 `
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ \2 |) _' q3 C8 n5 I* @2 fgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 k9 z- g; v! W. M5 J2 ~9 {bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ T7 s' X% x* L, i" \5 `5 c4 @
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 N% h, g0 T, x' K
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
4 \" g% n' K8 y: h& M9 Y3 A+ G Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for' v) X2 e; m! `( o, @* c
the Greek default.
3 _4 \4 q% G2 e5 \4 \& W; o As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
. h0 S$ K4 o/ b- G6 W1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
  b9 I3 ^$ H7 }# q2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
1 o6 W. \: a# T  s: {6 E  hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& t6 a+ C: W; v# I0 J$ T3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing9 D, b+ W2 A7 j/ @. t+ u
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years, Z. {# o- Z( K- m3 x, h; x+ Z
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
, {$ S) N' }; a: s' X2 C. _7 B The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
% H1 W  J* a8 }. J* N; h- k5 A: f* s, sbut that was before Italy.
* t1 n+ n8 |1 x+ \ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.) A; l7 `3 n9 o+ S
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the! C' |% K( @( d$ A3 Y' \  k# _
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.2 |# u5 D6 {# ^+ z. |
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Conclusion( H$ t: {' T) o
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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