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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。; s2 G: j% S2 P5 y; R  m$ p
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Market Commentary( ~. \& s8 k- `$ e. N' |4 Q" u
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer# Z$ m5 B! L$ J5 f9 u+ }3 W
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! n) i; v* T5 _
Signature Global Advisors) }6 ~0 G3 N( ^7 z& k  y6 e

. `6 d' Y. [/ r! }
0 d/ L$ S7 K3 a* e- y: xBackground remarks5 Y* D! }/ d7 w  L: @% ^. X
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
0 T  i, y7 }% Z$ K& Kas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.. w' z, F; O- a) B, P1 F, }! r( f
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 l" Y4 t# {5 Fadjustments.' V; `' E& y5 h- l+ {4 x6 C
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
. t4 [7 J8 g  osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ D6 B3 @: Z8 p8 o Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are. O' E& h4 g. c" _3 \, I
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
' y+ Z/ A* B- J4 ` We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these2 N" E" F) |5 X
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 M2 q, U" j8 m5 v
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s2 P, G, M3 [# j) y/ p7 V6 s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
- E7 J+ b9 U1 k2 p. Q9 R, F Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
& u  J, H1 C: {* q0 A  F4 \) D Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 D; A5 q' H9 g- I; m' p% `$ mreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation& J9 L/ Q+ g( |1 q
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( o: |/ X! y, o8 X; i$ f
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, n9 E/ k, r( C% F" Eimpose liquidation values.
3 r) @4 M$ y% ^1 B0 o% M In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
# i" |% O- t/ Q* Z; d+ {3 r: pAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" w( G+ p" o  i* T The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 y. v6 v2 w3 v! Fscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets' X( T8 |7 _' h* r' D! E8 `: m
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, {4 u+ A9 B8 X5 OSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 @+ o, `" y* j
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 M' M- \: I5 y3 j: Ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, A+ q* ^7 D* d% l  m/ E
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 X0 P. L8 j+ U7 `1 Saccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 \+ i( j5 K" e1 _/ d5 Y" @CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
  m2 m, F( U8 L- |5 t4 i" ^( E3 ypositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
1 G/ C" [$ ?: h) F2 C9 y, ^ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# r% U! Y- K, f8 [finding financing.0 K! O8 S4 o' ?9 d) [. K( e% J
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ e3 e' G. S5 Y4 Zwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals." |/ R" U! d6 N
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and* c% H# w" a, Q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& h5 \! _* J7 @& y7 y# i$ \going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for4 r5 a2 F! E) V' j, x
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) `) ~- P1 e; ^5 _2 ]" o( H% B. g  H European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* \3 J1 L2 H* _today.
. L1 a+ i$ u5 k9 ]% T$ T4 d( Z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in0 Y% ]  s2 |% A& f! L) c
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" j4 E9 p( E' b2 v Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for; j) Z% Y) D0 |* Z0 m
the Greek default.
9 e# T/ C2 ~3 w5 _0 Z; C As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:! Q: ^6 p3 R$ c9 p
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default: w5 a# H$ ?. E, J0 B6 C( a: n1 ?
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  }5 R7 A  M( @: ]( ^- H( A
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 O" z7 L% [, G
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing7 g: w4 H, h$ [* K
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" p5 W( r) W3 q/ T4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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, m# q9 Q8 o2 Z8 t4 ?7 T4 r: O: [& aBeyond Greece, Z$ S( M5 ?. s5 r/ c
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),0 g8 s& }1 r; z0 `* W: k! @- e
but that was before Italy.
# ]& [7 `8 P& _2 g- K$ @9 @" h/ b" x  l It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
* @1 O2 @) Z0 O0 x% d It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 }3 h$ h9 s7 n, S& g
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 S8 f0 e8 \5 D  c: {6 q- q
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Conclusion+ q  {4 T  z! w
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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