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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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* f# j9 @. ~, dMarket Commentary
1 i, G. G5 D1 }5 d5 `  jEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
; _) g; I2 Z4 F, A0 P( dJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager, A& Y: W- _) L2 A, d
Signature Global Advisors3 I& I9 [, t5 J/ N

1 p) Y1 w9 K/ b* u: f% c; _: R0 ^8 g. A+ t! d/ R' j! \2 K
Background remarks, [& j6 j1 |( b6 A1 z8 D
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
6 y. \1 x9 S: g6 p1 Aas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& {: I0 u5 f  K" `+ d+ E* o$ f
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal% c# r$ p$ B+ k0 J/ U9 m% E' V
adjustments.' F% x2 y7 a- K+ e4 R# K: E6 ]: `$ n
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social' V6 a1 F1 n* R4 j5 ?8 b
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  e4 J# M& _: S8 a/ A9 c+ _, G! j Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. u9 T/ E* W4 s1 p6 ulessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
; l% t( \8 p* ], ]) F% { We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these0 s3 N( U3 Q! B% j
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
- H( }& u4 l0 R" Y; h- o' R Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 L" m- b% I/ D/ H
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.3 u5 \% g; h* R: v# B
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( f2 U$ y6 k/ n. ]/ T1 B* C
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have4 s* H/ B; i1 }2 \$ @
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: B  r4 g0 ]* |1 `. _# H The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
# J) \5 u7 x; m& I" pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may+ B3 v9 B. v- D, t- I3 b4 e2 Z
impose liquidation values.
- \4 t# H8 M0 {0 a3 t$ G1 h In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 h; y* K2 G, Y% k  QAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- i, e. m- D0 E
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, f* @6 n& ?+ Fscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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7 c8 ]/ u+ L% U3 IA look at credit markets& }* P3 j( i; Q$ m
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
7 s  X4 \8 X8 O  A4 d' M& W% TSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) Y) V' ~# [: W3 I9 N$ Q High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
# h* Y. v+ Z/ W7 w* B4 l- b$ \* _then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, X1 r2 N9 @9 n4 J3 B2 a# Z
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
1 P0 ^( A+ S# W2 s+ maccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 l% Q! `  z6 O2 x' @
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are0 b3 [( d  w7 H6 n+ ?4 b5 H  Y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! t! h# z  Z- @& s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ I! l, [, B9 T' t
finding financing.6 y* |: U; h; U5 \" [/ R! ~/ f/ V0 L
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 B  N, L, W* l0 {- ~% x, j5 z
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 z. O+ N: b& P/ O; m Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! X* m" A$ _  N0 V3 a5 ois now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& g" n# _) h! z# ]( L) a% qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 Y8 H( `5 o; k4 _# O% Fbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 a4 B: A2 S& Z& w; L( d/ ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) l1 G& W+ |( A) h2 xtoday.
6 B7 b0 [  P3 p2 d7 A+ v* t Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in) ~5 o) R! @5 |7 M3 B, j: z
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
# k5 o) _9 ]; k+ z; D4 R& M Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
( R5 ^& ]% |7 p8 a) A! y6 L& ?* sthe Greek default.5 [3 c6 c+ q  T
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
6 o$ Y3 @  @  |) m; `1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. M* `% W8 R1 C2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ V- H" G) k% N) ^( d+ `# \8 Adebt stabilization, needs government approvals.- M( t# i/ ^& e1 z7 d4 ?
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing# a: \. K3 n# X/ k+ T' }
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years% a1 m/ G4 C, w! y
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.* F% K: Y* @2 m8 F1 s

* C# s1 P1 V7 T0 R  T* c; }; fBeyond Greece
; R' M* n* {; \& b" D The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  O4 [0 ]0 g4 C
but that was before Italy.
* O* t/ S( M, l6 Z0 }4 Z& c" t It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% v1 P; H/ |2 E5 _ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- N( g1 m4 E( H
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion: I, S  O1 l& m* U3 @8 v
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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