埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2095|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
/ ]1 T+ M+ n- G
# R$ w6 D6 C7 i6 C$ LMarket Commentary0 _' H; |. _' {# U$ W! R: Y# e5 Z1 A2 q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer) I9 x6 @2 w1 U
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
$ Y2 A0 f5 X3 QSignature Global Advisors$ F! s) V% ~. i' C6 [

) e. o, a, @! [  L) f- |; R4 [* y! ~1 J) _# J2 ]
Background remarks- o3 }" l0 v) t
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& o$ G6 I1 y, T) l% jas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, e# W8 \; s, q7 I7 ^ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal, `8 ]3 V  h9 N# O- i2 E" Y
adjustments.
2 x$ }9 L+ d6 @0 O1 z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social, R; i$ A. g" @- O- |
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.7 F3 i" t2 d3 O# c
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are4 d  t- y  m+ w* Z$ m) K+ E5 `
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.8 [5 k) S/ w; ~' L6 h. {2 v) R) J
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, O! ?8 l; z1 d6 Jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 E8 [& A7 y  f) p% }
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" Y3 L& \4 U" G+ c' w
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.0 ?3 B3 P+ w( {5 ]3 s; @
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 i. t9 c: k6 f6 r* i9 R- f
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have. ]: i6 T/ G  z  O
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
3 _9 h6 ]* E3 ?# p! V The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ B7 i* k: i4 z0 w# ^as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, V  x! ~6 S$ x, I* cimpose liquidation values.5 p, K9 N! M/ c% {
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 B$ o2 k( o- V) eAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) I4 X. `# g0 `4 t' D5 {/ H The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension4 e- B: x0 n4 ^$ w/ t# o0 ~
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% Q# [* c6 c- u  O% o  m

0 q+ d- c2 {8 X9 Y: t% sA look at credit markets5 u% Q4 S: e- h0 a% b
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in  N! [' n, E" h8 n. H
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* p; E/ _# M0 O% [; j! k High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
' A" Y' i( ?9 d& x3 G- E5 c7 K% J. zthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1) W% J" V' }& w# n  j$ `# y! i% W
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
3 d5 }& z) N9 [7 U5 z+ g2 Uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 A. r9 v8 z, R) K/ s) r
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
  H) N7 I/ j8 d/ u$ M7 `4 Jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ y: o0 i# S# m7 k
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 I4 `( r# D' c2 }, x4 d* m
finding financing.
1 _! m( ^7 A7 B4 n% ^! \ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they4 [0 d% ^; q6 Z
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  u! }% A8 E+ C* Z8 r9 t! j Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: {+ b3 i7 G$ m4 l* S) ris now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( ^% T! V' A/ K; ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
; C1 l5 `. H9 u# @bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.4 A/ i( ?/ I8 U4 V6 c
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 S3 R, e, j; Y3 @' f9 F7 t6 @! ztoday.
( B3 Q: f) |  G" I( B5 q7 ? Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" {. o! y- g: E: n) _+ H2 }
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
! y' E' K4 t- k5 n6 p Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, n0 ^1 |1 n/ gthe Greek default.
- K# O# f4 {) N' J8 m1 } As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
% n+ g. S1 m- h+ N8 g1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 E- _# U  g9 i8 h/ }2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign- g# B- y: j1 @  T# k
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
5 {9 S" [0 m/ u, s3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing$ h, R7 z1 B' ~6 D+ y9 w6 K. b; g
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years: R! Y! J* D6 M* ]' x5 t  H* [( L
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
8 K) p% j: r) m5 P
& x' Z" B' E& Y: m% d8 @+ EBeyond Greece/ ~- w+ B! H4 K/ f* @
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
/ a  k5 H$ d9 T) d, y' e/ ubut that was before Italy.
, t- A  n8 s6 p* H* q+ T- C* F It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.: R3 |9 a, N) X0 A% R( Y! t9 M! L. u
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
5 h% S- G5 H2 ^1 Y, F/ HItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.: f# |+ g+ c; Y/ D( l/ a

4 ~( c+ G/ i- ]4 U4 y5 @$ _Conclusion- K/ g8 j+ l. y
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2025-11-26 08:01 , Processed in 0.121818 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表