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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。6 n) B( O$ I; @

+ m9 p+ @$ X* C; y5 o8 nMarket Commentary7 q) }$ F6 i3 O/ E9 b  G8 G
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
9 K2 f3 E/ {" L3 ^# ^James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager4 I# H8 r: b+ i# k, Z
Signature Global Advisors& f$ R: E  y" Y! z9 V' F

! S: K( J( I# g" N
: R: p; ~# h4 H. KBackground remarks6 F" L  w; p/ ^" D5 i
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
0 R  P) ~8 G. O4 xas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
" z8 b0 _; W- C7 U4 j Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 c5 |4 n% H$ X- A0 B" L2 B/ y
adjustments.+ k! v2 }9 C- a$ H* G/ o, l! o
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social8 |- w( `* E: V- D
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
2 Q9 o" T0 f3 Z9 j3 g2 f$ c Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are8 E2 g' z* l0 Q2 h$ C: N
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
& R0 v# G) [) r/ ^9 A We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these; K  e0 P, |0 |: r- A
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.' Z, R8 b" k7 _+ k
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s9 e% c& S  M! c; @, E: Y
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
- j& \. y% d1 B: n Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.# ?4 q9 R* l' R3 @
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; T% \% M2 _: d& a- `reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation/ A- V! @5 G  v  W. e
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% Z& x. v9 U! O2 q: n; Eas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may) I: o: I( }% X. N2 @4 U
impose liquidation values.( N: Z- T4 v2 v/ j9 b* [6 b7 Y$ H
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In, {  B3 m- u7 M# L7 \# z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.6 E5 t0 D& L; P, B/ \
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
1 T, b/ _7 R" P" c1 d. ~& Lscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
" U+ K" C) X# M5 ]+ d2 X1 m; W7 H5 {4 _
, ^6 m1 v6 ?0 r4 N5 Q$ G9 MA look at credit markets
/ P/ ]) j) `; f, _ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: v. n2 _( z! |# l0 MSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.: d3 z; ]; ?: n- d* }  k! H8 [  W
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 i8 [7 K! E. x. ?2 Q" uthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% E1 j6 f9 A0 B9 s
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' x9 \7 Y& o9 ?access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade- g; H5 Z/ U5 O8 P5 y; i+ |
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
2 y" d1 F! s' x7 Z% m7 A) `positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
$ ^/ t4 U% n5 H, [. X. N( k Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" O( o: v% N/ pfinding financing.
# U* ?4 n- K0 y8 G Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* O% [& v/ r4 C! N9 s! Y! k! u; c
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* i; p' v' Y4 R$ g Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and& F0 G2 H$ {) `$ i
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 {7 @$ T+ @4 s; ?3 U+ u3 q
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. @4 E# U, [: W7 w2 k4 J
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.) h  i5 N- G* D( ?$ b* J
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain" T/ J  x8 @% P6 r
today.1 i; u* G( G5 `3 c. n' E* b3 W
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; Y: W7 I' `# B+ q' H: {
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
3 i* t+ @; u! {' g/ c4 k/ Z Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
% Z' d7 b' t& N5 x9 ^$ U* t" sthe Greek default.
1 |: f( O2 Y0 O& o As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& |- y* w& i2 N  d1 W1 t1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default6 M* Z4 W  p! ?# P
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign5 ?0 u# }' y! H, }9 x& q+ y+ e
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
2 I5 Z. z* P7 C7 X: L7 E# a+ [& K3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing5 A: l9 b* C; |! i+ y; p+ L. |
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years8 u" m3 `4 @8 a/ }" V
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.6 t  i- A! ~' R. e

. \: J4 ~: q5 ^7 G1 ?. xBeyond Greece
& c5 Q% K$ l9 {4 V6 u( f: y The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),; _, h; H0 `8 j$ _! E( h/ |, c$ d
but that was before Italy.- z: f3 C0 W' q8 ~9 J9 v) T
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
" g' L5 x% g$ ]* D It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the6 E* k3 p6 v# S: N9 B; j7 J
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further., d" j7 B* O3 `. T: o% W

4 K& g" ?* K5 L) C% v2 @0 E- s4 bConclusion+ V) U0 D" R6 @# R! t9 ?8 V1 Z
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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