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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
5 t4 x/ O0 J2 J' B: [7 ~0 h8 Z5 g: Y, c' f3 [- j+ c; @* _
Market Commentary4 A* N' C% Q6 X2 e6 l
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer: b  z( ]$ Q$ y  w7 O
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager+ M) H) c0 N/ j9 ?0 P
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
9 ^- `+ |0 N" Y Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) b5 T/ p8 o$ _( j  X7 R$ o! U- F- X
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
: l% Z% m# L( O2 E( [8 u5 ` Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal) A8 o+ \  B* X+ A: u
adjustments.
) t- P8 M, k2 F9 N' J This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social0 n$ u7 s3 i8 p; u4 o+ P
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.8 D8 Z7 |) M$ I% ?9 f+ @# W
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are8 H: W2 i, o' j  p  ~2 i0 n# U% Z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.4 p4 \; R- P4 k3 q. ?! `' {# U
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% z- I; c( `1 h$ g0 s
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 S' R4 Q, Y( |
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s. W7 P" D- f6 Z* y7 M
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. A* Z: Y/ a% T) w! g) T Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ [  q6 D, ^) H4 a3 y1 D- [+ P Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
& w+ v. R& G$ `reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" W8 o6 a3 B, o, U- z+ |
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 \+ k7 y3 ], B  a+ @as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. w% {3 m# f- a( |& A: p) E( L& Zimpose liquidation values.
6 z+ ^3 X! G/ i  h: a! D In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In3 ]- W% |  |# J% U) z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.1 v1 T( |* M* U" [
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension' w# v2 {  ~# o
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.8 h. \! A' F$ r1 z6 T
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A look at credit markets$ L3 l4 ?. B+ d0 S( \% ^0 }
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  B+ b  M0 Y, Q$ BSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
" w$ n" R2 L1 Q3 ~0 n High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 W- |  ~' ~5 _/ O
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 M# V( L  t$ Wbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) o6 c+ X8 t( s' `, U1 Q# |% _access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
1 w- _+ ~: ?/ {6 `) K& u, nCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 i% J$ Q2 A5 g6 \$ [7 x2 s  C/ o! d0 L
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) t: {7 v& E1 R+ J2 M5 R Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble( e& ?5 ^6 J9 X
finding financing.
! ~/ b4 e  R  @# W. o/ F' w Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. k, E& X3 Q& l( Xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; w8 K- N8 f& h4 w8 H$ s  [ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 V2 ^0 J, _  l" o' E. wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- O8 e; }+ p; k4 R
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 A0 p% j1 P& V/ l1 Q4 zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
8 O) [' T& I1 i0 l) p European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) f- d1 E* N$ y  a' \7 qtoday.) [( o, q' R$ V9 d
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' K( m7 v# u0 ]) Aemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda! E0 T" w  X# w8 D$ u
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, O# y/ C; O1 c& }, {. S; Xthe Greek default.
; Q7 \: @1 d3 j# ]9 p As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:, h. n+ |; Q, g8 t
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
( A* a8 q# v/ c0 F" R2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
( h2 r& J; C& H2 W3 L, M7 Qdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ P/ f$ i7 a9 Z' R2 C
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing! x5 _& ]5 z1 h3 ~1 Z
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years' {' {. U8 u* o) t6 [' K/ \
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) x. y. S: f+ o. N9 o8 Y  z+ ^
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Beyond Greece$ E+ v4 t6 g7 O/ ^+ R' Y- w5 ?9 h
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" K& M# `) _+ C/ gbut that was before Italy.
5 s- G9 |5 c3 v! w6 F7 ]+ G It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% ]1 O- |1 ]! B, ~! f: w It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& f0 B7 P8 n& m4 c- e. m' |3 r
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.- J" P. D8 D' U; \

- n7 {; `: x8 {! E; e* vConclusion
2 Y1 d9 R, o+ }5 N6 {3 q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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