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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。! n9 n' j2 c/ a& z! a$ {

0 y1 G0 O3 N7 ]Market Commentary
: Y, Y2 Z$ p) f+ q' mEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer0 N( |* @) g: q" S
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 q$ G$ B* b5 Q( lSignature Global Advisors
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) W- w3 Q: }; u# i* n" n" gBackground remarks, v: S4 m! G( u
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are9 ?  q" ^$ e2 C; W/ t# q
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.: E. ?6 E  F5 J5 {+ M; C2 ^
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal4 T/ R0 `6 B9 J1 z3 b/ X/ u
adjustments.
, `- N" q& }+ f/ `) R This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
& d+ f/ o( R  T  w6 A3 M/ dsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* [4 P( A9 _) I, s! d. s( F: | Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
: c) J' E" R+ o$ xlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
' f2 d* \- N$ F We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
  C4 ^" H( l# @- N( v: r5 `3 {adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.) f% G! }  O! Z. r0 c
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
3 l$ V) y1 t$ I0 k5 aquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
0 K7 N% W. R" X/ V Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.' g& @% G6 c0 _& @" `' h
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have- m- B9 N) j) e  `$ C" w/ Q( m
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' @1 x+ W9 r; P5 z+ b6 Q; H The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 S* Y! ], h5 H! M) B& \
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) F. c( f5 v% q6 T- l' c/ K  limpose liquidation values.
3 Z- g! i8 N. @4 k8 W" H9 n In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 D5 K0 ]; g- e) L: l5 m. b3 D
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' l( t1 Z9 r7 `4 |7 [- {, d The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension  {* t3 Q; W: @& P: f
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
5 m; R" `) {: {; Z5 \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ m0 M6 D- R/ `* q  n
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 |: q2 s9 B8 _, e3 R" a7 @ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! L+ a6 u, R9 p& xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
; s9 J) v+ r& [( ~8 }billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* T( Q& s! e. Y9 c) l* ^3 [1 \
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade% K' c. g6 g) J3 O2 k' t5 t' Q# }
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 `0 r+ i( k5 r) G# q; ~# h0 B
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ j2 J9 L: J' Q5 a3 ?8 Q
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! @4 u! W+ B  `8 Y) s1 tfinding financing.
, c$ Q' G9 Z4 X7 w Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they) y7 _6 z2 O8 d% W
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
4 h& o$ y/ n6 h  U Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; H7 I6 [* h0 m4 Tis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were( d! I  N8 q! H1 w
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
1 S0 N. t' ^# l) L0 d, Qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 H3 N0 ^4 m6 V7 M! _# o$ z
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- l0 Z' O) s# q$ A( j9 x: R
today.# O" M2 y6 @6 J$ m) `* f
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 L. }; U  i6 ^+ w4 `
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ h: H4 h7 R9 a* }" ]3 C
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
: N3 Y/ M7 E  uthe Greek default.
" g8 ~. W. `3 T. a) E As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:6 W+ i8 K1 A- p# I: N! C1 S
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 d! ?- }0 e2 J. a( \# g# f
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign) c$ I2 G. k7 P* u1 C5 p" Y+ k: q
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
  {! ]7 p9 ^9 i3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
& s. p- v% s% j* u1 a# Bbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
- J! P! G9 h/ R5 A# C& r4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets." q; U& t- c% R# }

( J9 {9 a( D2 V+ d8 ~: K, jBeyond Greece
9 Y) \- ]/ Q' a" n8 q7 P The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),6 J6 Y) Y5 T( i
but that was before Italy.
. B+ T" V  o% c+ i8 ^# f, u It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.1 y" H5 O) [( Q0 ~* O& P
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the* f+ X  `1 H# m+ X% L) y
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 I& w+ J0 w( E: [* Z

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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