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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation7 p% `+ u+ O4 u W
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
: w1 U; B1 D5 i7 C! P6 B/ ~as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, W7 {2 b5 y5 }! I. a2 Jimpose liquidation values.
- h% k2 c4 ?, R+ q, E4 s* n In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ I, a- \7 ?7 f% J* a* \ y
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ S j# x1 |6 {1 z. z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& N) z7 a* c' e9 V
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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9 U! y# @& p9 h3 V! iA look at credit markets4 @% W$ v9 ^- G% ^ @( q# Q, q
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
' c ?* W4 i% ]' bSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 J" M+ H, A3 ~ f0 [ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
9 V! {% n2 M) X$ ? tthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
1 z) i8 B9 o3 C4 s! tbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have1 k2 N v8 Q6 w. x# U/ Z
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; g2 |6 M# Y o5 [+ M
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# d8 Y, i. m/ J! [) n7 cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 e& L+ [, g/ W0 x+ J k! u Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
# Z4 n" i& b" m3 W5 ]/ g0 ifinding financing.. x/ Z6 r1 R; G# Q' o- Z9 e0 U
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 w* i+ p: E) G5 f/ ~: p3 h) Vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 u% q5 l/ o4 g& J' Y5 c! i Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: r; q) y" M0 f% y, ~is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ K2 @# d9 \ L
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 l& C' J! A2 a+ h/ `8 c
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& J- j$ Q- w6 i European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
6 H; c% ?9 Y9 r: [/ P# b1 u! Ktoday.
: [4 I1 d: s# U Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# V$ `; ]" c, i) @% ^: Oemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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