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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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$ m) b  `! Z% ~- ZMarket Commentary6 C4 Y; r& ~4 Y0 k0 z8 v1 C% g
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer# h, d  v/ e7 H; _
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 I+ U' P# }5 A" K% O# a8 mSignature Global Advisors2 u4 ]- Z* @8 k4 U1 j
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. Q1 h, O( T2 C; I+ w
Background remarks
* r3 p) a5 h1 k& p% V Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
! n4 m) I9 \$ ras much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
# l# k2 Q9 s( S- k Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal# h" B; z' ~  J; d
adjustments.! f* o6 h' \+ M
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
2 f+ a5 k0 {- T6 |safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
" [  r4 M; ^: M, s2 _ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) }* B( H6 I4 z; Olessons to be learned from the frontrunners.2 }% o& ^% ~4 n  ^% H/ I1 W
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these6 g1 P0 P- y0 w& f6 S/ A6 l+ z$ c& D
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 r& |' S& G7 b
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: g- \# |$ M$ {quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
$ s8 e( x; b9 z Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
* K* z! Q$ Q8 y# a- R Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have. J! l( y9 X9 Z8 R' W. `
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
  v: q. z0 a% x) |# z$ C The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ v6 |# A2 Y+ P/ y$ \, J
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. P  N9 f1 O/ C, F' L
impose liquidation values.
! t5 X& P3 e- w9 L( p3 v In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
7 D3 V' Y( h( ?  `) AAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 a" t5 u, l9 q6 K& K The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension1 e! U3 `( A$ c* o! B7 [) K9 g
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
/ A/ \) y. c0 y3 L# U, t Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in' E. |- `# J1 c+ Y3 }! }& u
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven." }& H6 X1 W9 [6 s$ |; |: Q5 \4 k
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) F& c) K) ~7 c8 N' _6 R# Bthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# _6 V2 E3 g2 j! ]. P% G/ h
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, R$ b, W4 G6 g- a) A2 h3 t
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
" c* u" j0 d% b' c& {CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are1 ?. D5 j3 u8 N  I' I6 @7 G" j5 m
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# \9 ^3 b9 O7 U* _2 h
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) b6 \% H; v- c+ J- Ofinding financing.
5 _3 w9 K! |- ] Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 }& U$ z7 W+ t. L% f- Kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.( x: G; l" w3 Y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, X, n$ E5 J$ v* Jis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 k* B5 w8 m; v+ J8 G: P
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 M3 s3 C. `) _. i+ o, e8 W. ^bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, Y. D8 B3 h1 m$ J7 G European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain6 V1 l1 _* Y( v3 y0 `3 J, k
today.
: Q0 a! _# q: [0 i( h6 q, d Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ o* y9 Q1 z4 o5 Q( t1 @+ X8 L8 Pemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 Q! x6 ]: M  v) e4 n2 c1 q' {
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
9 f& ?' U' d7 i+ @; e# fthe Greek default.
! \8 D7 M) ?4 ~  ?. O+ Y As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& r1 I6 B+ ?+ B( I; b# x0 j) j1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& M6 _9 }; m5 q2 j( C4 @7 R7 V' {
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign. j8 I: g* e# n3 K7 B, ]
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( y; e( N3 S0 ]0 @4 ]3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
8 @" p- W+ m6 F) kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
: K+ `6 |  K6 p! r) N4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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, b: d- s8 L; t5 D1 M+ ~7 @; }Beyond Greece: X/ y# h; G7 v% M, g; F
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 I. Q# p9 V2 I) C# fbut that was before Italy.' J# V8 r0 \9 |% u" i# l
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 z* `. q* I% P. X% V. y/ _
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the. A! ^; X- s' M. }
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.$ z/ E# E& S. V, `

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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