市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

Market Commentary
. V' U; F& _6 d# uEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
/ W: l- L- k% b5 w6 |James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors

  S1 y3 e" A' }2 K
Background remarks
& @& y  g8 X8 x: g3 E* v/ \3 B Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
0 a, k! u/ _( K7 t8 E7 Y- }adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) B! v3 ^7 @3 b3 Wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: e. v7 C( O* U: u& |' ~) e Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
; I3 F- k& \) J- t" l Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
, |7 q; m! c2 _* f* rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ q# u, J2 k3 a% c1 [" Himpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
: Z3 n6 ~# h' }/ z5 N; s0 ?/ @& qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

. c6 G9 \- ^  |1 B) u+ X8 y) ~A look at credit markets
9 y4 n) O  ?% m& K Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# @5 m5 j& W; I4 m+ \September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
  x9 t- S# d6 Z0 L& _1 F( O$ qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
1 w7 Q4 p# Q: p* gCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
9 K7 y$ P; e9 l1 \* ?. g Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
9 r/ B, f% K; H  C5 s% \ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  N' M3 Y+ t& s  x9 A5 @5 q Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
2 d4 \5 X- P$ y% zgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
' C  R- V# x3 X6 t# Y6 |8 P European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
$ K2 i7 v0 Y% t0 s' pemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
! m3 G! Y. I. X% y As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. L1 a. `$ j" X; a0 a2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
# Y. y% a6 ]  N5 o# tdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
+ I1 K, }9 W' U# {3 Nbut that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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