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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。$ ?% x- g7 i, p# H
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Market Commentary
9 M! Q) G; B7 J+ l/ V2 O$ @Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer! P4 e" |. g5 ], X) ^5 G, H, K- E
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! m+ J/ ^  V) zSignature Global Advisors
; U$ d2 N7 n0 ]  r; v, P  @6 b- V; R" a  v) C9 N

: q$ q' {9 O* Y+ B4 bBackground remarks
7 m# G/ t' p. T, g& X, V' r. @2 { Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& k" q; a; Y& }* B' k. e* eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.- T& F; x; i" `0 {2 M& o
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal/ f1 X" H- k0 w7 U: |5 e2 w
adjustments.5 B) x! r( c! v7 W6 A' s; z( B8 W
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social, Z; ]9 p- J* D1 E/ s
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
) D# b: X" C1 i8 b$ k Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. [8 u2 v+ e9 N( ylessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- I/ _0 P; j. C: D# Q4 y) M5 R
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
( x! O/ z9 J: aadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: A) C! f4 h) i! V1 h- u Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
. Q  P! @' p# \3 D2 g  zquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market., B4 a/ g4 B9 m2 g- i1 @
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
7 X& o3 |( U7 E" g4 Q6 O% X Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
+ i' b9 [! J2 n! j4 \reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation) b5 L# f5 p3 Q4 o
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long' {* I' g) k+ w( Z
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 R8 j5 P. b  c8 T3 e. @1 B" ]: b3 Cimpose liquidation values.
- z- ?" M3 c1 {. ?/ A# m5 k9 ~" D" g In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ o9 ]) b, X' \  l: I+ _
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
! E3 `  A* \' j* ? The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension5 M# Q6 b  Y/ r8 B1 P' q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.: ]9 Q8 X* q* ?, k
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A look at credit markets7 b/ b$ L+ o3 y9 k
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in* l+ ?+ T8 U% V, ?  D
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
  X3 E* V( M4 m8 [8 \" a High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ s$ k3 q( t% E# c: y7 [
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ R  u' k! O7 |. Pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: a( R  E' H$ H6 Z7 i6 k
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade8 |8 j  r' F& a  z
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are; N: Q: i) y0 k8 \9 D: r8 ^" Z
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% Y, H% l4 X* K' v3 T Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 Q' G. j# w1 q, I& |. |finding financing.; z  }0 s1 K& f6 u
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they! V+ k" t/ N* S6 V- n3 U, H7 e5 h
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 B" n( ?& ~+ P( R: _* X0 L Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# v; H7 [$ N4 w+ C" K9 I8 b
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
8 n3 f- U' G2 K# o4 A3 H  C8 e/ agoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for8 [2 s  R  b" ^9 d! O" a
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
( s0 B, [& [; ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain  w: r) X1 j1 }1 [  i8 b8 ?. L' s
today.
4 G+ M# ?+ P5 g: r0 D Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in8 s. K( t* `( b0 v
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 U6 b( u- ^2 |, N7 U+ l) N" I
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for  ^7 v) T! Y% N
the Greek default.
0 x/ K% F8 a+ H4 O. q# Y As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:+ e1 ]2 X7 v0 P$ A9 f: Q% g
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
( F, G0 b5 |) ]4 P$ P: C2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
; X" Q$ G9 l# I! C; U1 sdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 z2 l# f" g, C& r2 j" z
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! B5 f' _: X7 K- A2 tbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 R1 E/ }( ^$ Y; B0 Z* w! |0 g
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets., i8 O4 [8 |4 @' t4 v4 Z! I

1 @3 z8 A7 R& hBeyond Greece
, q0 T5 B4 Q$ |# {/ H. S" S The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 s" z+ C+ d: j% M4 L- c/ k3 x3 k
but that was before Italy.9 g  J$ L) E& Q4 T
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
8 r1 }0 m9 F* j3 J: C; C/ @ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the1 i; `, l- S' Y7 E
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
" N  P, q1 p& C) y9 L# s/ y We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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