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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
: L7 k' M$ ^2 z
1 E' Z$ @' e' SMarket Commentary
, i5 N* y- J8 u4 S0 k8 ?# OEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer5 `: n- U7 v" C$ S6 d6 f6 @+ G3 ^
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% j$ U$ a+ ?* n/ H) oSignature Global Advisors) p/ z" F( U3 Y
# L/ \3 T3 R4 {  W' y7 S

% X6 E2 Q' p* ^. @. ^( BBackground remarks
/ u, B7 T$ x, z6 D2 }( N Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ m7 i* u8 s0 M% U# r
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.. H; ^! u6 k0 v
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal5 x9 U  l; `: s3 z' F
adjustments.: K4 a0 U7 Q# l
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
' F, d$ V. }5 C% ?! Qsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.4 L) v7 \$ K" o7 j% w
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
( E' E4 `+ _' K: J$ zlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: F7 _5 D" y1 K0 U; H$ Y% j4 u We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
  {  }" i" e1 p2 C4 G' Wadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
$ n4 s% [- }' Y( d/ B" R1 R! J1 L Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
) _, w. ]. ?! i; q3 N8 b9 M+ pquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. K7 P. M) d6 x- N$ N; Q" S' y Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ H# E& n9 @; c Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( I& S! t3 ^8 d; B1 U7 h  t3 treduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
( u8 G, F. p9 M. v& m The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  T" r( h$ t& u" w# \$ X
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may$ t# J1 I4 r& q" ?/ Q9 G0 P
impose liquidation values.' Q7 _* k3 X  N/ Y  ^3 H7 v4 q
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& t2 I: ~& S2 _, C6 E8 V8 y; \August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 [# O" z  s# b, E; u The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 {! V; y+ U4 `
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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  Y4 J' m/ E9 N! S4 QA look at credit markets
6 ?' b  E0 z4 i Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ b4 U+ N; `8 G2 j, }1 ]4 e
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 M0 E3 D6 O# z$ k5 S/ |: I1 T
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& T: [7 m3 B% Q% H2 dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1( I5 \2 ~* H9 \+ n
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) S! a8 M; s, M1 D  c7 X* faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 N/ a7 u) b. `: w2 j, G' KCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" i$ O( |( `, [9 @% Rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) O% K  Q  X" ?& ] Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble" I# W) e* f( Q! B+ \" B# Z1 B
finding financing.
5 R  k6 O. ]+ ?* G3 l) T( S Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 a( m# n, n  V+ m9 @8 \, iwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
0 t* o) ~% ~' z+ |; w3 f! F0 U  C Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and/ M% R! f6 c. q& V' ~( K4 V
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 b9 }; Q8 q$ B* g2 _/ |8 Z5 \
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: O" H7 a* S3 x) u; sbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
4 ^9 z( x9 }! }- k European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
  z/ [. _: d% Y$ E' ]( wtoday.
5 b2 o5 G# ^& ^5 [ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
, m7 h( A6 X) A+ c* l9 {8 Z# ]emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) S3 Y; G  H% n& k
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for, z' u2 w1 o& Z; D2 T7 X5 C# [
the Greek default.  c1 a) l( \0 q( {- l3 |
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:1 s( x# J7 _1 G$ Y( e$ E
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default, v" h1 q6 p6 T4 L. F, R$ d
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ k( n& D2 `2 z4 `8 U9 @debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
* [/ f, R1 v5 a. S* c) L" X3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing' L* ~7 a* |; X, S  T1 z; R, B
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years$ O  T0 e3 P* E' f
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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1 C, {$ ^1 R# T* `" NBeyond Greece
- L8 ]! u9 J0 _* K  Z9 g! o The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' m4 q0 w* n2 l3 }" h
but that was before Italy.
. V( N( P: ?0 N. Z7 _ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS., f) n. ], T# k
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
$ p# i! }4 t+ M- c0 `9 HItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion' r$ n) z6 W. C8 h7 {
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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