 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation! Z& d3 z& f, X; D
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long& F) e$ S" H# k1 R) }
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 C0 W. E: u0 j4 J0 Z8 Y$ S( k3 l
impose liquidation values./ h8 s, c) Y) T( T9 y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In3 q* i. c3 m! V& ~/ O( r% R
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& C- f3 n+ _, V The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# X9 ]9 ~9 X, d) A: X; j% g
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% D- f5 E8 M1 d1 U, F
. z7 [! j& [1 L' sA look at credit markets
. k* N1 R* W. b& ?# ~+ O* h Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
' I, S* }4 R( @; K# @9 _2 ?9 aSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
" Y0 C8 D) v z- ]( [ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%1 Z. z' F5 x; h; \* W
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $17 n8 ~. R: L4 Y3 E) {' D
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
1 s% K9 _5 f* Q' Y: T. Jaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, g: m7 T# f( m: |) E% ^$ ^; G- TCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
% k R4 J: }6 l; k: n6 C) Hpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
z U' ~% X, K; p Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble z/ z: h/ V8 s4 O0 h
finding financing.
; X' I* J C' t" ?- |, ~8 ~ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they% x/ r! I5 H5 ]% d0 k
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 [+ ?. F; J+ d# r5 s9 J2 i Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 ]& b/ v" y( t, D
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were& s ^ t) P: \
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 a, u3 h% z8 |7 Z) b! W$ Mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.* n5 \1 o9 v k! O/ a& ?
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ I6 s' c& k, D
today.
' G6 S; J3 {; O% O1 t7 [- x Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
, u1 O' z! e9 K- Y- [1 cemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|