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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation, F7 h) E) d4 V/ U# h5 ?/ W
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- D# R+ B# @: r+ k; R5 B/ v3 O
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 s; L1 m9 W9 m4 ^% pimpose liquidation values.' U6 b" S) E: u8 A g$ ^
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- [8 v# ^' X3 q- X; nAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ R6 ], ^! h( p: n4 N$ C5 \
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 I2 g; l8 F7 B, M& `. D8 j0 y
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.& M+ H& ~3 W+ C6 s+ g
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A look at credit markets R) ~) J3 p$ }
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ l0 A5 E0 q0 A# k! oSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
/ h* O; p4 g' ]' Q7 q High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%; s0 S% T3 ]$ M3 x- v4 @
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. n) G& t: L( o. j% U! I
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have+ Y6 q: ^5 S( L8 T, ^
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade- j) @' g, I2 B; W
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are& u# K) P* X1 e$ C3 {0 M
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
$ e0 O: p! x" k+ V# N2 H* j7 I Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
+ h/ }0 q. k- S# |$ N6 n1 l: H2 Kfinding financing. n+ t5 m+ T; t6 ~0 @4 {
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they( ]0 K2 K5 i" c8 ?. J
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
: c6 P* M8 _ g8 H Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
( k. B* g8 F* \9 nis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
- ^0 f9 v$ P4 r" Ggoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 W1 Z) h8 m2 u Pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. [, R3 \4 n) h# B+ ?/ O* K5 n European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain3 ?* n$ ~- ^/ s! {" _. n. g
today.% K6 t3 N. W2 m5 x L0 D1 ^
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in/ z. e3 j- H% m" v
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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