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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。$ h, I& _. t/ T
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Market Commentary
$ ^7 |- f% Y( d, M! A/ Y- a3 wEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- G$ g. _& h, l0 Q7 G# Y2 sJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager4 u6 F( c/ E3 J' ?
Signature Global Advisors, b% p) N9 d4 n7 K. B& D* s- ]
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  V3 r& K( s) Z9 sBackground remarks
$ X5 |( v# c0 G$ B Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are/ Z' p" N! _3 Y* v+ N
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  J( H! m0 m1 K# Q3 l0 C2 J Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
" X. X) g% C% @% V' Fadjustments.1 @1 S) D" \% e
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social8 n! V4 f# E* c0 }0 S! H
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.( v, }7 ?. ~/ p: G: ]
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
& H; K2 I- G) m8 i+ Llessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
  v( x9 Q4 Y5 U! R3 s: t9 k We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
1 U; ~) u" t& C& ]+ j, Ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
" @$ s, M) ?8 @ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
) t; [9 w/ ]' I# k, j0 p$ h& m/ [quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& p  X+ ]" L9 S1 O2 A: e) P0 F
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth./ Q. a; \) T$ ]$ V' c
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 M% T6 n7 d: j" ~# u: s# s3 Areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" s1 f$ l* Q/ [! c
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% j& j; M/ s/ V. c& ^! Kas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may5 j3 H) V* O6 d8 U2 p
impose liquidation values.
; ^0 y3 C7 }- w* d. p In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
( U: w3 J& Z) `; e2 V+ V$ r0 L  ]August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# P& }' g0 Z0 B* W- o
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- `2 a; F( {' @scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets( }. F# w  W, f9 h. i5 I' c/ M
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in7 ~! |$ Y/ F: I3 h& E$ r) w+ t! A. V
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.: ?6 [0 s2 M6 T
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 j4 b7 r/ }  R2 F- S
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1+ e, N2 v: ^4 ]
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; R% K0 }& t7 G* R, W
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. |5 N1 r! d/ n1 N. TCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are/ n# l* U4 a. L! z% m# J$ M% f
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.: L1 ?: f' K( {4 p" J9 H, Y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ @  g3 k# n. U2 u& G( d* @, A
finding financing.# V8 J; Q7 W" V: Z% f
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 d: H* D" y% J
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* Q' s' @- W& d3 i# a Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
% z8 M: \$ ]6 R# [is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 l! R+ d3 s1 Q4 T, H& p
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for3 {0 [! S# j$ E: P1 B7 `
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 e$ G- A, ^1 p European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain# T3 m9 _# _3 L7 Y
today.
$ o! B5 x! C& j2 {$ u Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
) g  n; W8 n4 Bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda6 D0 N, f: O" ^, ?2 P3 J# }2 r0 \9 y! |
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
5 y, v  S3 h. V% a" {8 j% q9 dthe Greek default.% K1 Z) ]: S2 @1 [" U
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
/ A3 o& C- I- T& Z! _; z' [. ]1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
5 H( @8 H/ l# w, A9 ?2 K5 C, c6 z2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
2 {1 @1 X" k8 j7 {; ~debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 p: Y' h' j. \0 g5 Q3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ e3 `$ E9 P% ~; R6 Ibanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
* h, D) i) C" P0 H3 g6 R6 @% P4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.5 m% T2 O2 N2 O& F

! m; |) H6 c  {5 }7 EBeyond Greece& w( ~3 u# h: F! c
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
8 S4 U- ^% K; y* @/ @) A8 \but that was before Italy.) X8 V* U/ @% V  `5 O, b
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.6 _$ G! @/ ~* i: @
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
+ d1 d* u# z# I1 U6 PItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further./ J+ x; _! W4 C: U5 k

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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