埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3088|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。8 p% |2 d- b$ [% v" }" B5 P. @
3 x4 m5 a3 u: m' W, c( H/ |
Market Commentary  n# Y" Q1 l/ {' S  q6 u7 C9 L
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer7 E% v4 }) c1 s+ ~' M9 o1 K
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager% O3 u$ a/ L, R7 l
Signature Global Advisors% M$ }! e8 w5 N" _, Z$ {" Y
% i2 B  {& d+ [  W7 T
6 }% Y$ d/ E! c  T
Background remarks
' f* M( }6 ~, R+ q3 Y7 x! M Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; g& v/ l6 }1 C- J0 j. R6 P
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
2 F& n8 M: e8 B1 b# U, ^; ~ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal/ w  n- \5 n& g, W0 \4 F+ C
adjustments.- y; p, u' N% A' k3 r; W
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
4 E/ }8 g; A$ ?- }0 _8 gsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.5 U8 ~; g  c+ W+ u* p
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
* F; v2 B" b5 B  z7 ~lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.% Y" r, E; P# L$ O8 U! x, U! P
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these4 g9 }+ n+ P) t" Y
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
9 T! {5 C' }4 r0 c Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s) n+ V& E0 f3 c+ A, Y
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market., b- y$ E) R6 |( i( t- ~& A
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.! g" N# J+ q+ {5 }
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have' t- Y6 _7 u# [% b) M, v) M
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
& G# U% j+ v0 v2 M9 C" E+ |4 e/ S The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long& O# A- J! |/ ], W
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 ?7 T  G& C  L, l' O2 Yimpose liquidation values.+ B2 U! f3 K* O, r6 [
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& G0 c  G& b3 ]: G# ]August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 K" S+ Q6 g( [$ d
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, H: n* B7 W( l6 m; R2 D/ A5 @scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! ~1 c# O# S0 |' r. |' e* ~
1 j5 B, T. a# p% K* |" {7 U
A look at credit markets
& G% K6 _* \2 {% R Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in4 O# d" c/ ~; v* B8 d1 J* `
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) T: Y4 ]/ g$ B9 G3 T( G; f7 W* G High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 G: P6 y; ?" b: A) _" l3 o
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( J' ~- l1 ~' V% {& F6 Y% ybillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 T# @0 b( Q  H& ?3 J+ c3 _5 o3 U. Zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
  O" X) z- @3 k* ^4 XCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# `6 N  u' p, ^& j/ z" B& \
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
+ O4 k+ R( n: W! c Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble& [: `$ j1 ]& h; x, C
finding financing.1 N* x, A/ r1 [5 [
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
5 t( }3 i+ ~; L$ Q5 o0 Awere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.0 F7 V% r0 I% ]- _' S1 k
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 |! U- l' X; I# O1 N
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 j8 R  r% J2 ^going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. |) D# |5 t2 t3 J9 r' M+ c2 Z/ [0 A
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.! [3 _' m8 u: Z$ H' B
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
  d" w" N4 N1 l' Gtoday.' [1 R& n9 ?. K
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' d/ r2 z) k6 u& Yemerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( y' d* m* o* [. L Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
- t6 x' }) ^( |; @9 Ythe Greek default.$ a2 V. x9 t6 g2 v$ `2 O# y: Y
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
3 k6 ?$ x  ]0 w6 ~( m1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default( S4 y1 ^2 j9 M5 p" g  t) E; y
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
5 |( T  _# F/ |4 q5 `# x* odebt stabilization, needs government approvals.- Q: c* G2 B" D( u0 N
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
; k8 D4 y# ]- i; jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years7 W$ H+ K0 T5 [: }
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 \2 N' T6 `' k" T/ q: H

- u: [. `0 K$ g" _$ T% jBeyond Greece6 `8 @% Y9 y8 M9 H" @
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),+ o( ?, c6 Y3 T3 k  p
but that was before Italy.
4 V% f6 C. I0 ]  K It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
1 B  q  {  D9 }$ e# F It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
* W& @$ w6 ~6 F6 OItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
/ `( K; Z& ~2 ~0 D4 \+ n+ f, c& ^; Q4 c
# @; f  c% t) {7 U# E( YConclusion
- L! C6 R7 k( n1 C! P2 H We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-5-7 09:34 , Processed in 0.227021 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表