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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
8 {) R$ g5 U! }, W: Q. d5 W) ^Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
( ^! _7 q% Y. Z8 R; SJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager2 s" n# B6 o& v4 `( O3 {: w7 P
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks! m/ V! h( L0 k. @8 }9 P' O, ~
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! U; y( O8 D' W# }  Q$ A: c
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.0 }$ w& D7 z  q8 P* z2 A0 Q1 @( S
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal. g1 [2 e* ^0 h# Y3 {/ n! T4 r2 J8 s
adjustments.
$ T  @" q* Q5 R' k$ V This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
2 [6 s! m. {) S+ r2 t' ?1 Tsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.8 W* U7 x; F' a% d' ~; R( [( b6 h
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are3 Q6 v5 @1 y* u7 h
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners./ D0 T/ y5 A* X/ `5 b) ]7 [* t* l
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
( B1 g4 P% ~# |$ x: y( h" Wadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: Q3 c# s& n/ F- ]" S Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
4 i/ D( i! T$ ~* ^1 |# fquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.5 m! _' `( K9 s" ~
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 _' w4 Z) z2 m9 A) L. F% v
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! ]* p( n. n6 I: Y( Freduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation2 o' e# r  a4 P- C6 y" B: c( C) ?
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long! J! |2 n% Z2 p: L, Y# g
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: G. |9 ]3 N& R5 }- q3 P! \  t
impose liquidation values.) ]3 ^. ]& f& X3 z% e/ v
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In) q" S' t7 o% s
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." Y) |2 r/ h3 o0 F
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 p" F1 }2 u  O2 O7 k. e; N2 vscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets., ~' K; ?- [9 ~- T
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A look at credit markets, j) t3 Z0 F+ |6 e9 [- {7 o# P
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in( y( t  m; }9 W0 f
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
' t  G5 }  R3 }' ~ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 [+ P4 x' o5 [then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ z- s) }) ]3 y  U8 K) o$ fbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have  i) T8 x2 {, g$ r- D0 V0 A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) z' [9 b. Y5 ]; @0 y
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
5 {8 U  ]' ^4 M- P, ?' Z. opositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ y  m8 s2 P9 l, k1 |# m# Z. O
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble1 m/ v8 {6 S" q3 d* @7 S
finding financing.
7 z4 I! f, J/ j; u5 [" @ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ A/ W- m3 J; Cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
' ~5 R2 P" @& q9 G3 u  [5 R+ A- J Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) W8 ^8 x' w! k4 y+ d- d
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 f  p3 s" ~, {# a9 V0 sgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 g7 h, @5 O0 U+ g8 nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.8 z9 Z0 X& i" a/ ~9 [5 q6 f" m
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain2 I: f0 O5 i8 h2 w& F; O- W- T
today.
4 b: W& {" J7 W2 i# F+ y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" p/ z1 P0 v5 V6 }4 |
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
5 ~( N9 ^3 l" d  p% u" S+ O Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* A: b8 Z: `) F+ e
the Greek default.
; a* B8 X6 O8 x7 f3 q As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
) D9 H, K4 g$ s+ B% ?( w" k1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
8 r" U" h/ I, C1 I, z9 Y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 O5 F6 _+ Z4 W8 J: _- w: v0 Q
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& e2 T8 Y( f* p% l$ d$ C3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
/ T% N. A$ s& ^/ h% D, [banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years, h, q: w+ i6 `: I4 }8 e
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.. ~0 A+ q* ?" F6 I% j
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Beyond Greece
" G% y1 e9 M& W5 G. y1 p The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: [1 C! }/ {2 F0 u8 K6 i+ Vbut that was before Italy.5 h( d# W) e; ^7 ~, q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
# g; q' h- L- j2 h: c& {, |" l It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
* d& `8 y6 u' y* k6 KItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
1 S" A& Z4 T7 v) g# ]5 m We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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