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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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" t9 a' o! \0 q! b, R* D; sMarket Commentary
3 X! m; S4 E3 f0 NEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. l5 t1 {1 t0 i* w5 C+ E( ^James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! b9 J7 _9 x  h$ P& P. g. [3 lSignature Global Advisors
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. ^$ G1 r7 o5 P" X) p1 z8 @Background remarks
5 H, r- N+ i) J6 t; Y( T# N; P Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, a; K  A, ^. h& O6 r. j
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
$ e9 I! k- G6 M) |( p  J. |; ~ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
4 W& Y1 P3 W! r- `adjustments.
% J: v5 X9 ?8 V1 H This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
' e6 X6 B  s& l# V6 [5 L2 K& nsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.( Z( U: U7 G# J' x! l
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are+ {! i* }* S7 q' D0 W# `* l: ^
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
, c' L1 c# q6 A8 o" J We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these# ]0 Z! `# i5 e! V) g& [3 K1 ?
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
& b6 W8 S8 ]8 f  [1 X Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
! ^: ^& {6 y" R7 qquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.9 F$ @, e/ _7 [. K9 C
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
& q$ h1 Q" ]2 R$ s* U Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
* ~' H, |3 d* J* i3 E4 O+ h- Lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation: K6 a% j: s3 A' H
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- }, @3 U# U1 t+ M! s
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may  ~7 {( M$ q% U: c9 R# b
impose liquidation values.
& s1 T5 }, N* U) L% V In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 y% c' ~: j/ B5 z/ P" eAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 f* D" S5 D( ]% B* ?3 h+ v The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) D" k. ]6 [6 {9 x+ a" t7 }
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.6 j. p9 R% {3 {8 ]5 m
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A look at credit markets4 W, A$ X% j) `: n! L2 H/ r1 k
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in- p5 F1 R, ?9 C" u& R$ p- j( k
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 ]# K+ z, D3 \
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 c) T8 U" n# k6 S% I% ?
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ n5 w/ a0 E+ ^billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
- q, G$ m( `9 O( ?$ Gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, [) T. _) z9 F2 O9 U+ D  ^. z7 OCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, z4 \# Z6 Y0 u. V0 @
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield." X0 D1 Q" u, b& E$ z& y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 P+ G  I: }0 |+ C+ ^% _( Z$ xfinding financing.( M( {% E" e0 r5 S; y
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
7 Z% c. U4 c0 a9 K( E1 w6 Uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.0 l0 U) a* T, }
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and. {, p" M: s1 c$ u+ E6 c* I
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 U# _( W0 x) m5 ?7 Rgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! J  N# D- C1 @& a; \/ j) [
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 b$ k4 b6 p6 h5 u* c European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain+ a( M3 d8 }) V* R7 T3 u
today.. S! A2 @: c# Q" G5 ]  g
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" r/ O6 P2 b0 k5 y: A
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
- O5 r( n: s6 Y3 K4 L Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
" z( }3 Z: Y" h3 U' ^7 O. z3 Dthe Greek default.
: l- R" [# ~  V8 w2 W  F As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:) d6 l; j( I! a- Y( m
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default! w( ^4 M4 G' @) }8 x
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign+ p0 n! |7 w! H7 h
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.# p9 u( g8 e# q9 K7 z
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing/ S3 C( P( C3 G$ I* W
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
( k% ~3 N  s# @1 R. w8 Z" ^4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 }3 j1 [( ~6 Q- Y9 s  [
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Beyond Greece
+ C  f' J  ^, m& Z" u( u The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
# W' _2 L- `7 z/ Z0 V7 T: ybut that was before Italy.% X; ?* _5 b, m; b$ R
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) f) j6 n; J% Z8 B* y It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the/ s9 H, N+ S" `( x' s
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion* t' W1 O4 P7 W
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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