 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation) F3 E# F% Z/ k7 f/ r
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 q6 A s# n' ?
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( j- ?9 D$ l" C1 E4 Kimpose liquidation values.1 V/ P1 u4 K$ j# o, Q8 K" n3 B( x( c8 F$ O
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
7 u# Z& R2 B# N% I; f, ^2 UAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# |; \- N, A. |/ |; [4 L) S
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 Z1 _' ]- T* f) o* Uscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ q( u1 Q, G) ^0 M# h) Y" i
- {; d& l' N4 Z7 L7 @" c$ @
A look at credit markets! u$ W7 X8 m# `( k1 ~ M I: ^
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
0 c$ B+ q9 p& D# S4 m4 LSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( S$ P) g2 H6 H, B% N6 N* } High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 O$ g% c! ^$ T- |; u* D) Q
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
7 M: X, X$ r; i& S0 m% j* h, Bbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 z( Q) S; Q: [7 v3 R1 [access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade- n$ s/ P G& B8 v1 a2 }
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! r/ {' [ {* P# [" m2 Dpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
( _' J7 f! c4 w Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: x* ?, F5 y2 {, n% s' z' \
finding financing.
' m* \% Q) Z8 k3 f1 E: g Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
1 S: D: F) B# |* e# Z( ]; Wwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.3 t# h6 Y# e) T6 B
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! P4 ?" u' \/ Q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% x; a) f5 ]3 i7 m& |& Qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" W' d( ?) L% M* U4 h' L3 ]
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; | W, n2 o% r4 |- [
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
/ |$ y1 `) e% ytoday./ ^1 n7 H: C7 g; U6 V+ r% f ^
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 _1 j) l; u2 O7 uemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|