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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation5 s* x4 O* N7 D3 a* g6 G" g
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; h& ?$ ]6 }3 m( bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; S- d* ]+ J8 s" @6 D4 r
impose liquidation values.
f7 `4 x; c) D% x8 \; V0 I In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ _- k* v. \( A6 P: g$ WAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 n; `6 Q9 ~* p1 p' y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
: Z: C# b' n3 b& \8 U; _8 `scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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3 L1 U) D# G$ P, b/ C. |2 |A look at credit markets
! b! w% o3 n! @! S. | Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ n+ Q" `4 o6 B2 F. d6 z
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. e% V6 x, }( B! v: w2 R+ v" ~% w
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 R5 c5 Y- w6 B4 ]5 [$ ?- m, s. C
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; o: m S+ E7 L2 {9 h
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' T. r% B2 I* ?3 |% R, Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ E9 r5 {6 f0 F, X( p1 kCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
. Y7 @9 x- \; z' rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
r4 `+ ]0 T2 l4 s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' j( b) O% O4 d( m6 ^
finding financing.
' g; q5 D" A( |1 b; l" w* O8 e Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 l$ ^" s- G0 a* k7 {$ w
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. k& R( l5 \1 z# {- ~1 q0 u7 B3 B Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) C! v {& x# q# h1 U' e
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* g8 ?" v7 w& z* A$ O3 Pgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 m0 L& I; x0 `4 N6 m$ ?7 `
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: O: h/ |/ J" W6 q2 W6 e: j! b( ~
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 m8 U- c/ w% D! J0 _+ htoday.+ `# I( ` B9 a, K% p/ Z) c
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 z3 M( M2 G" Y% p1 E0 b$ V
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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