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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。1 |: f( L5 e  a7 F' S7 |* }" s1 M( ^

8 ~; f' t  x# `2 N9 p) {Market Commentary
' K) ^, @4 K# w8 h2 CEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
1 z4 x, ^7 t3 }- AJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager  ?; \, F; L. q' O9 ~" w6 K+ [
Signature Global Advisors3 i3 a# ^& r  x1 ~4 G

  Y2 M7 k# U( `- t+ _) O- F# M! [
Background remarks9 X! H. m2 u: S! D9 D, }
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! f$ O0 Y1 S8 ^% c
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
7 O/ `; S) ^6 F/ `& O) l( X Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
. C9 |6 u! p. K* t# N2 D7 |6 qadjustments.
" c" w, @" m4 h$ ^# U, v; a  N This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social) {( z* y- [) @' e2 _
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.4 d8 b8 f! V6 x9 }
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
  s( Y) V& B4 [- G7 L2 Elessons to be learned from the frontrunners.; Q7 v5 b: V4 K  ~; w
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these6 O- o& P; E4 B, z2 x
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.) C7 d2 s& ~" {2 f
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
% i0 k- V) o$ B5 d& X# Dquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
4 K4 L6 g6 V6 I) \ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.2 v$ |8 n' M) e1 V7 y9 K
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! p# L/ v# `5 _% E# J( t7 zreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
" I$ ?: k- R) Q+ C$ N. R The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long2 ^* Y5 g8 T2 w8 \  t9 N
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) ]3 G5 t+ \$ Qimpose liquidation values.
# p/ ?' V2 A* u8 ?2 _% w In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
+ O) F1 R# X9 i4 r4 F) c8 OAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 y; |3 p' ?2 R- ]+ ^ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
0 y0 X9 O6 A$ Z$ P, n! O2 K, h) gscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
- A. J9 y# S4 c0 h& r* B( L7 A2 f! e% d! ?6 B) u
A look at credit markets
6 C/ c3 r# d) ` Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in) F) y8 |0 {  o( P9 `3 h
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 r, Y, t0 M  ?: O/ [9 [( Z
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
5 n! ~( ?& Q2 o6 @then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 c9 F  J( q) {" jbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 X7 r2 l- \( p
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. z; i! `/ p) D! o1 [CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: }7 \$ ~, F# j( M$ ~
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) G+ R4 ^: l- L2 L
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 E4 }, C% {& W
finding financing.. l: i! t& ^. g% O. J. x! F- i9 u8 i
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ H, T6 y) u4 @) @& zwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, m& ]3 W- T+ v% h Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 r6 }# I' U; j7 o- F  {
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
  C, |% N0 }, G2 rgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: V% }# B4 _% D. K$ T' Mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ K2 F9 j& {3 R8 c9 |3 v* t& `+ K European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 H& U7 h( G* S8 M4 p. t. O: Utoday.  f3 P4 V, [' Z, M7 n9 L4 j/ j
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. O# t6 D; u! e* s3 F  Bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
# E  C8 M: e4 w. ]+ K. v: P' m Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for; O3 J2 ]: r% }
the Greek default.8 n2 f) X0 B# L) B0 o9 w
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
: p) [$ Q: Q* q' P" p6 D+ N: D1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default$ z4 M6 V$ j/ I, M1 C
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign6 J4 `4 p' v) v/ d
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.( Q( r0 ]: l$ O: y; d" q: y) S) `
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing6 ^5 {' `% a( r3 c& ~2 v2 G/ r: ~
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years) u+ V- h6 N: l! @- L; Q
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) h* l( G% r* _7 B) S
- k, g& P' n- `. n
Beyond Greece/ Y  e3 d0 R1 ?' I
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
3 k8 n$ v- V( _5 G% `4 O! Bbut that was before Italy.
! o! w- M) L% S- r4 H1 B It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS." ], j4 R0 V8 b5 ?% F/ W" X
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
( z4 l9 _6 L2 c" C# aItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 A$ u, f: M* h& n& a0 U$ T
- s: y5 f  \! z4 C
Conclusion3 n: v" @* s4 j: P- h+ K3 F
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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