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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。1 y, T8 }; t7 m. B9 z  H8 C# {
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Market Commentary
$ ~4 j/ P2 L7 j% TEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) O$ N1 _- m/ y. P  ?. uJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager" x! m% F2 F# }, e- ~( X! V
Signature Global Advisors
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2 U$ V/ [7 o/ Q. J0 v2 EBackground remarks
, S, [; v$ m0 `$ ]8 M  m* K Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are/ @# i* a3 z; j2 m
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
$ K2 R- ?4 R2 @1 n# U" P Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 c9 [* G; J; y7 J1 fadjustments.3 d" D8 L* @; u& q7 v7 o, E
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
8 }2 n4 {9 v/ o+ Vsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  j5 K& z8 o6 w* [5 G2 ]7 ^ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
* p8 E5 }7 j& C5 B& v0 Rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: R2 e( R  i  f9 Z$ ^
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 S  h& d* g* I5 s  S/ a4 [adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ U4 S. N4 h8 q Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s2 k# ?$ b/ `( U: w$ R. L3 B" r& N
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
6 ]. X6 Z% I8 X2 }; y$ o Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
$ y& U! t6 {1 G/ V9 k Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have% O4 u( H/ X/ q9 \8 j; ^8 k
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation- m- F- P+ w5 P; Z+ M1 p3 r9 K: o
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long4 T! W, n5 F) V, D
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) S6 l$ q- @" |, ?impose liquidation values.
/ I+ J0 \* x5 F In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- o1 |. D2 R' p5 p1 v  nAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.2 x* R1 }% S- x* X! D/ d+ P4 M+ t; X& p' B
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- K: U- ]1 W; b: mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.: Y. z  [. I8 Z+ j5 {! M
& n1 D, r" {" m! s! I0 {9 N
A look at credit markets7 \$ F: w  T: Z! h: l
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in& {7 ^4 k4 h3 ^% a2 L5 a$ H
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. E  ?2 a  J. U  o. v# k
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 P) Y: ^8 Z7 D- F6 y" i
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
( @( L% F3 o: z- t0 I6 ?billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# a) S) K& K; d7 x+ K; s* X1 C
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ K) c4 S3 k* U* X6 m
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 }; w7 W8 m5 `* ]) _3 |positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 l7 _7 k8 @; b9 W# p Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' E2 D% |" n* k& `+ G" K
finding financing.: Z1 `, [4 d! p$ _
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 }( t  ]& @% P) h: k9 {( O8 i
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, P3 |) w+ L0 Z9 S/ J Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 j' v* ^- Q7 C, `  k; ]: r$ gis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
' K! y% V* O% h5 K' egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for+ @# `* B/ X" m, h5 f
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 e( j  `4 X8 x
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 u+ }7 }& V: ntoday.
: f% W- C) Q- q; v. V2 C/ }  g3 g Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 [5 {4 N: R% d6 S* T* [
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 b0 E0 ~( q$ _* o$ s
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
. M- b5 X" u) Rthe Greek default./ x$ y7 u7 `* k+ @6 x  L6 k, q
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:( D2 S, {# E+ P$ Z
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ |$ M8 B8 q4 S7 l9 e( l2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
: F, v! U# R$ s& gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals./ I# [* Q6 p9 N/ v( @; N# J5 v
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
: }# d4 ^2 F; T, P4 E9 {  t) ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
1 R! V) w3 E$ K8 G4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.. h: c2 a7 A8 e: X9 u7 S8 C

( L# [/ s/ h# xBeyond Greece. A2 e4 Y6 r2 o* x* E
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 X7 R) z; R2 C# H3 f" L4 m8 n0 ?5 p
but that was before Italy.% S! z( L/ Z: ^; u5 _5 Z% N
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.# s; k+ e9 L2 F. w- a
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the2 y* S: r+ D! x
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.7 a4 @9 S2 k7 \9 k" ^( I. L* ^

: L% _6 N& i. a8 n( [Conclusion
  X( M  |$ M! u9 H3 y% } We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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