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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
: w# O5 m, u2 g6 WEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
  k- V1 Y) k0 @2 N2 @% a4 h# IJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
' e( u5 m8 [+ qSignature Global Advisors3 i$ ?3 m/ @" s

# J# t' a9 t. V; b8 J9 z& F) T/ H) z9 Q2 ?% e' G, D
Background remarks
, i6 l, x- ^6 w6 Z! y Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
+ N4 c6 i6 N# C9 Tas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
% d* h. X3 L+ R8 g( U/ A6 o Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
. Q- g6 g4 T4 D0 D6 r0 ~adjustments.- q+ z& d5 J5 @5 u' _% @
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% n0 a  T7 [8 K% x4 Vsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
& s; A4 O. j" L1 r Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
4 z7 g  e' B9 Z1 L& W) k: D* Flessons to be learned from the frontrunners." f* l% c0 C  ~
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
) `4 y! k( ~% oadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage." M- ?1 h6 ^  V& ]! C- l7 B! E- ~
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s( u% ]+ s8 D- @$ W& g
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market., z& b* v) J7 r5 O
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.) B& I' T/ [4 a0 A
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have7 s. ]$ `' |+ g% w4 r% z
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation/ b6 [  s  s& h- u; x) }; [
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 i: v* t' ?& ]0 k3 ^
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
1 c$ C" {# q1 J3 v1 iimpose liquidation values.
$ k* Y% T$ c; Y. u1 k In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In8 T) A  v7 ]. Y: _
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. |- l+ e: t/ X* _0 O* Q5 N The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension8 R/ F% p" [$ s/ o' v- G3 Z, |
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) x( e! Y9 `3 X6 z, E3 L
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A look at credit markets* F9 k0 l* W1 H( _1 g8 ]4 o- X8 K* |
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 w5 S. o+ F3 q4 a6 I8 l, c7 E
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* L: [- Q& w' L High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" g% |: b% w1 C2 k# K$ j
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. T5 ?2 N8 D/ i0 Fbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* _. _; d3 u2 d8 d. C" X
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade6 c0 V" T. E" f" }5 r, n$ v
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are" W# U" @- z" {) H, r9 H/ j  W
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.! N, k7 e4 U: S- v0 [8 h
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 h7 Y8 L1 H* P) x* F( Zfinding financing.2 m# T& @7 k- A5 }3 t
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ Z7 C7 C! J6 h  Q+ \
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
4 q8 V! ]0 q2 G7 e6 D6 X: | Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
* Q3 k, w' o$ T# Z5 Wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
: w: U7 C9 \8 i+ ]9 L$ a8 l; u9 qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 n9 i, Q7 R, }! n& y
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- _( }: ~; c, `: m7 N- t
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 _- [7 A* Q5 utoday.# x+ j& ?5 b4 k* r& [* {
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 I8 v% T* e: t9 F2 W) W
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, W+ S5 v7 \/ l& M1 c Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
' U( u$ m, C* I* l! ~3 N7 M' lthe Greek default.
5 Q3 c5 Z$ W% ^& H& Q1 I4 @/ \1 e As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
  R: U6 u3 N" [! R" m- w8 J6 B; }1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
6 M% q$ U* J' p3 c& `* p& A  L) K1 d2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
7 y- S7 Y9 x2 K+ `+ udebt stabilization, needs government approvals.5 y7 ?/ X  Q4 X  U2 t% o' k
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
4 V0 u/ r5 b7 T  a2 Kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years# d& f" d2 M( e9 f) f& }* b
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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- j0 A' H6 j- F! J. m3 j  OBeyond Greece: y2 U2 b+ ?, k- m" O
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),5 X% l. G& L8 i/ j$ `
but that was before Italy./ ], @3 A- s6 A: x
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.9 [, {  Z, R5 _* }9 v
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
: W) M9 D4 M& b8 X3 U( O# y- UItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion& Y& x6 k$ v. e9 _% d/ s
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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