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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。! f( f/ H! x. g
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Market Commentary. C( l6 m/ F8 X( s5 p# n
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
" ]$ ?) d* `, u' FJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% P+ k! m: }+ _; Z9 jSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
% c. j4 s. [# U5 E, T Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
! O7 f  e% o0 _9 r  Bas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP." V- ?2 ]5 y  t7 X- F( [. A. i
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal  R1 ~* C' ^6 J5 N7 n) D# {
adjustments.
% k* O9 {3 u* E0 K5 x% d& y This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( z5 Z% s2 f  c: T
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 J3 @7 K: [4 y7 k3 J  d4 y Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) M5 z6 x: `  |  N, E- Q; H
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
0 L. o  J3 N9 Q+ ?4 E) P% h/ {: {. n We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
) I+ c6 X6 S) E' Y' K0 M, L5 Oadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage./ u  W  P: g) b2 x9 P7 v6 z
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s! Y* @! x$ g6 I; A+ e
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
6 U  i/ |. u: K1 D3 \1 _5 t Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
  a$ G# H& `. Q  _4 a9 J Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have4 g5 M0 y' H2 y6 v6 C7 T* [
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
8 h1 a9 `9 Z; X" ?  X5 | The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 W# q4 w6 f" ^. Aas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. E  F: X  V8 ~9 D# e3 ~
impose liquidation values.5 [3 n6 p2 F: l. E
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In1 e8 o, P; y5 E6 `
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.6 s/ g' `" w) P- |
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
0 }& V, q2 V" Q) w, Y0 c8 Nscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets8 s+ G* j9 R; B( t6 O
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& x5 _( S$ a1 O  |5 G  X( @  aSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.8 s( M) x$ \9 W  Q' T, Q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
3 ?. ?% B/ Q1 E6 a2 m! x; [7 Z/ zthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: _! U1 X; {' u' G. e8 p; ^. A
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% ^! `3 p2 g! j/ w: x5 aaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 y6 W" |% Z* f8 {" U. A
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ ~; I( y1 V) @0 ^, C/ j$ t1 Opositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: P5 v2 U/ g: H7 G Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 u9 |' }/ o0 ^* ^
finding financing.
2 m( ^0 b" b2 M/ ?( U8 M; ~ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. O: r. k2 B; _3 w6 y
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 O' @' z. V' A" i8 `6 b  U
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 T( l, X" e- Sis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were, v) g3 x% Z  w( |
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 a& ]5 O& D+ R" J5 L9 ~bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.0 W, `, G0 C( R  K0 a/ n
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
3 a/ a. i% @. `  ]today.
' c; b) W) b5 }4 l Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
7 R9 p% `7 ~4 U' E5 q% Qemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
) D1 _6 e& c- u( V5 V. ` Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for0 m1 f. C9 `0 N+ J
the Greek default./ d" u, K8 L; C% F& f2 n- p
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
  g5 \# X, z4 C# H$ ]& S5 U) X( c1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default+ p& e4 D) S. l/ e
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  d+ b" Y; n$ T, E, u+ h6 z6 ]3 q& C
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.# _- X; f3 [( ^8 v
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing6 r9 r+ j4 @* B  j* b
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years" a  T, O$ K# i' b# S/ R& F
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.0 ]3 s4 T+ a9 x
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Beyond Greece* I$ H5 G+ W) l2 f
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
2 d# K: f: R6 L- ubut that was before Italy.5 P$ h' R) x! L, G& s" e9 b; D/ ?
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.2 R5 l% Q. e+ G$ I! t$ {* {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the% x) n0 `$ r% n( K* E. R
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.& @( e+ `: O9 a$ k5 E

7 F- P4 h( X5 n% i! U1 s- UConclusion/ r& S; L" N$ W5 ?8 V
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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