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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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6 @5 n$ A2 K. L: bMarket Commentary$ I3 }6 |/ L7 |5 }5 [  ~! n& D- ?1 p
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer+ z& O) x& _0 c% x7 {1 x1 L
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! W9 W2 u1 ?- y2 o' r) [
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
# b: ]1 U- h, b$ |, C Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
! S8 F. f) b) Jas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.+ k, d! @/ R- [3 r3 N
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
3 f5 U1 z/ i" Sadjustments.
+ h4 b# `6 f: f( W" x6 p This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social$ ^3 j# g1 e0 N  m3 F
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ Q( W2 v$ A" @1 ?* L6 V+ N Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
+ Y7 ^6 G2 \  {, q4 @8 e9 n5 v6 e4 A+ Flessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
2 y$ [- r3 ?" _, W7 ~9 R We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; Q' m- X; I% m9 gadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.1 w/ ~& z0 M3 }
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
/ n' D) g4 ?1 K* W- o# z. c. Uquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.: z" B" B' e( q/ f+ i- f9 u
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.- T& ~; m2 X# I1 x5 L( o
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
' H: h4 S$ H; B. U. b0 {reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
& @6 l" r5 Q8 P+ p3 ^7 v The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 t; V6 \) u- b$ z* N3 ~as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 [, Z- a" B% z9 L1 F$ N* O" |/ nimpose liquidation values.* @  w2 Z  l6 P- o8 X- A8 k
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In) W3 i9 U0 r3 r7 P
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 S% l+ g- D( b9 o' @- V The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension% n$ D% O3 C, e6 N2 c8 u
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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. a" l; b/ W5 N9 x4 `A look at credit markets
$ l! O# X- P& s5 f Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) A9 ~+ D/ f. w5 rSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
7 M* h! }. S4 q( X High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: \/ d$ m5 A& ]then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $11 p8 T$ d0 b2 G" f$ k' H) n+ K$ _
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
2 t, \* r* T* q# h/ Caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ h" q/ o6 i9 D
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
/ S; |# u5 h- s" F6 O' B6 O. gpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 g/ |& E/ j7 ~: i# O1 M Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble1 ]7 `( A% \& y* Q
finding financing.! o' j# [1 h* C# u0 P
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, V& a9 A8 U1 a$ x0 Pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. ^  v8 o; M' M Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
+ A/ b" U, ~* i! L8 @8 m9 V( X4 dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were) c# m: Q, g/ A! O
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 y$ k4 y4 V! k, o$ e& F! kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 p% h" a1 \7 I European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain* L5 P/ G% }  E. u& G9 ~
today.
' ?( l/ }" a2 p5 Y& J Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in$ ~  ]# |/ Z: [! D3 ]/ h. i
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda" \% ^. n: J) c$ n/ @* F! n& D7 D
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
4 R4 X  a9 K( p9 Xthe Greek default.
5 [$ ?' {5 y" r" c2 P: i3 K As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  L9 Z) ]  N: B$ ?) n% o  B
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
, {9 Y/ q/ ]6 o6 E2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
& }: N) X' ]$ Q4 P7 r& t, {  q; x. I' Bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
) R0 w; j$ N. @4 H% U& @! A/ n3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 ^: b$ @. O) e* O% ?3 X. f9 v  ubanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 Z- x! T& Y7 Y4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece7 F6 o; w' {5 e8 U: _5 S. ^. ~) A
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: n( m/ m4 {! Y; n) F2 F  jbut that was before Italy.' b3 f! b3 r$ U& H
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.$ o3 l+ t  x& e$ C/ Z
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ x# A" B  f1 I0 [
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 {2 a9 R- z; F( k

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/ _% m0 g4 c4 }% g7 |) ~! c6 X We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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