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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。8 l: }3 Y* u" ?7 t1 `3 t$ ]
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Market Commentary
) U( o4 A' S1 q# ?  l5 h" REric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer- ?! S) R* y1 v7 C$ f8 N5 g
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager* ]0 l& Q3 @  P+ ^6 Z0 V- g# s
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks$ A+ X$ f- B) t% u1 u* Y' A  }
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
8 k0 m4 ^" P- d2 N# J7 Ras much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
& N& ^. ?# o2 B4 t: d  E; | Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ N6 e% h  n4 t$ u4 E
adjustments.( `. O- W! a6 x' L
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social% \; U2 F* R" e) _% X, d
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
; i  F3 V4 f! A% N* j, ^3 c. D" k: x Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are, _1 p& e0 K& L. ^2 P
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: O0 S9 ~- E2 P+ i! L, Z
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
7 E+ I8 U5 P- ~adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.+ B& ^9 _$ G6 R4 _9 ], R9 K
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
( e9 j# K% j( ~$ ~! N+ l$ pquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.; d6 A/ r8 b% {4 o
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 t6 R5 h6 ?) v& b6 e
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& _& K4 I% Y9 I$ E% Y
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 n0 r) y  O1 |) g4 K6 ~, w The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
0 J7 D- H9 c; {& L" D3 U0 Las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* ?/ v5 d0 _' aimpose liquidation values., u9 Y# ]% n1 g+ O
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 B3 P) H# W4 F- b
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.  \8 g4 I  Q3 K* X
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
* k2 p  j& y5 Y3 }* tscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets" F, _) }8 D2 g% N' f9 l
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: c/ Q: N3 V" y
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ u, r" H- h/ g3 B; l7 A- N8 u High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%% B: @! i* j* \2 \8 b" Q
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1( f. X' }2 h: a: w# {8 H3 I* L4 c
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have5 W: C6 b/ _3 Z: l8 L+ v: d+ }
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade% W3 X1 L* H9 @
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 W' l0 j4 _* u) r+ Z, _+ H# p
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.5 j0 p- c; [# x# S. P8 p, v2 Q1 O
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ u' V# t$ z: E' K1 jfinding financing.
2 c0 x: e4 K( E, c1 W( U+ X4 a- \6 d1 ^& v Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 `; R; k  A% W( H  i- b' p
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.( l$ ~5 P: b* @- ^, M
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
0 U4 w: }! h2 p' k$ kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% m+ g7 d4 M0 u8 O5 h4 ggoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( f" `8 v1 }( g5 f( Lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.. H# H; N: _' @0 I$ p( d) C. R1 Y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 Y  ?# \; Y) @
today.
$ s3 V7 T5 z1 ?$ h. v Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 \" H- H! Y6 Y3 F! U! m! w* g) Xemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 V. E: |" @( m' _: O Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for. [9 N; B  T* z; F  h. |
the Greek default./ I' o2 i3 T6 w4 O
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
% ^4 _* I3 |- A: u0 i1 l1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default, S% Y- V! M; U; m3 E0 n& k
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign" Z4 K2 I, _& U: B9 n
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.# O# x$ _; F, ?( k
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 v- }3 @3 p4 q* i% T9 O( i8 b1 N
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years. {8 i( u" y# `5 n) L
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.6 B" R  X% D. [( Y& q  C5 N

8 D; d; K6 ~6 o  `3 d, eBeyond Greece
' z' }  B3 X/ ^4 ^ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- W' ^; F, H4 R; b
but that was before Italy.
$ f5 U4 W: m7 i7 f It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.1 i$ f# T* J, n: X) I, ]0 b5 y
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the3 t1 w! {" u/ v- M4 A
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 C+ A' \( [1 M/ f% r

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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