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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
! I/ B9 ?7 L; m/ M1 N2 d6 ?" ?Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer- n  t/ J8 |7 z7 M: S
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 c5 C% d  [9 w* @/ X7 wSignature Global Advisors
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* ]( `- s4 B* ^
, P$ \2 F' a( ]7 _6 W, X7 y  r, YBackground remarks4 E8 k! u" i, Y' p
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are0 A, f2 K; Y& L: j* S: ~& Y
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
/ o/ N- Y0 W6 Q) r Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal" L( f2 C0 y  b3 N; m# [) Z* D
adjustments.7 [& `, t: O7 O
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social, y7 ~+ z* H5 r( f; M) ?# y
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
5 I+ @" _4 S* G" N7 s. t; @ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are2 [* f" `/ E; h1 j2 ~
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: u& _0 Z8 s' h' [* h3 f+ T We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these; x3 ?4 V/ H% r8 ]
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% @1 t8 y9 D: k6 J6 H+ _ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s: P8 r. P, y$ F1 M
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.+ K" i# z9 n) ^6 n. c2 h4 a0 R
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.7 x. t# L5 O6 J/ C; R
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
, T; I7 f4 m- a' M2 U9 u  \5 sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation) Z. I. J) ~! u# N
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 v2 m9 m- N* p  Z, y8 Y5 g
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
1 ~5 S) ^7 f, l5 e: v( m- qimpose liquidation values.4 o) Y! {, {3 U
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In4 q+ [  {! ~( A0 S4 C5 g8 O
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' `9 G# u7 {6 B# d The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; Y/ M- b" a- Cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 V1 C- w% l0 w4 y" T7 U. B
$ E( p2 F0 D! e( Z* A  i4 c, r
A look at credit markets! r2 L" |8 Q1 z2 \3 w+ B* o. z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ W; d* `& T' I* T+ ISeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* b$ k, [) o' `% M. ]3 p$ A High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 {3 [- S1 z1 i! g1 Nthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ I; J3 {- E" nbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: |/ S4 s# }, L1 B
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: o% a- ]9 Q( l  ]$ r9 C+ [
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are( J: r, z& b, c, ^
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 t  x% j, O6 c Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble$ D& _: Q8 E$ S/ d2 K# m$ p
finding financing.0 [: x, k" I0 A/ U* ?( o
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
& l6 L$ `  b' k8 l. R9 O  vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% _. B/ n7 d6 d" s" y( s3 ?8 o Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and& t) v$ ?9 x! g; O; h5 T/ M, o$ T
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were' A6 i- d6 C( r, k6 }* k+ v8 c/ n
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 n8 `: N$ x& C: |8 j+ X
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: c/ u/ U4 N4 j$ ?4 q. N
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain' f4 Z. [( h. W
today.  Y* J) e; f; Y& M# P0 d! x
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in- S  w+ j; E8 L, t1 w- w* w
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda# x- [) E2 v0 l1 I. S. Z/ F
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ N5 S- I. \4 ~the Greek default.: l8 K! W) m& M3 V' ^- \9 O
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
: p3 @" e& o% p8 _' J# D1 V1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% k! v8 i: r: s, y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
& y3 `) [) g$ udebt stabilization, needs government approvals.: p  r3 a- e7 Q! @2 \
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ t4 N1 M. e- W4 B4 I5 Ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years2 G3 m5 ?0 N: o" ?' W
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.& ~* W3 E! U! Q5 A) f

% s+ j. X: x* Y- NBeyond Greece+ Z  |* t. B0 a  F$ l
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" x7 [' x/ S. ?0 w5 ~( w* Q) X% N- Ybut that was before Italy.
6 N/ I( I  P; a' @ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.9 b1 E9 _* k2 Q2 @
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
4 X+ w. V- j& j& D  z: E5 B& NItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion5 y# \2 Z& w6 s4 [
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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