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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
8 e; I& K" S' |+ n6 \- E
5 d) W$ e+ C& ?Market Commentary
$ h8 d5 e% \% s) BEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer2 x9 {, H( S& Y: N. ]
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
4 s6 {$ D0 J8 pSignature Global Advisors
6 A+ |3 A" U5 U/ I" d3 f! a, h9 j/ W
4 H( v0 O( G- Y* t
Background remarks- ?; I* ?8 J! M  D% S& J/ z( l' j
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 }' t# j# R8 ?, Q. C- Pas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
2 `+ w  m/ G; X8 M Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal- I1 m4 x7 j1 }) y% @+ A# ^
adjustments.- ~( }: f( b7 x7 U; Q. u3 ]1 Q/ P
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
# n3 |. c: y. n" R6 N6 ?safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.6 D6 n! S5 M6 V! S) P
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are7 [' w; o4 G1 Z2 m
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
- e# }9 F1 B. _% X) q5 R7 Q4 B% a We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, O, k) i$ `( {" V6 {adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage." |! k+ q6 a; u. }
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" t4 G6 o7 u3 _! ?6 p# q
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 T- M8 \5 E; H  b Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.! I8 u3 [6 e, l+ a3 l
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have: r+ u) d" i/ s0 l) p. I0 w+ g( s
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
* g2 A1 L4 e$ P+ k" f9 S The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ a7 W5 M' Z4 f5 I  yas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 Q' C8 z/ O. X7 `" M2 c; J9 [6 z
impose liquidation values.: T* E" \9 E7 \7 c6 v& |7 w
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 w& m- B5 z+ m, G) C. NAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.2 v9 t3 N# H7 D4 c" F, s/ z1 }! O
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 E+ F$ e4 l* N* \9 D( T! e4 l! r: l
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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& y' I- K$ A( BA look at credit markets
5 c3 j. [' w  e; J6 a, s Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in. [2 F1 Q/ \1 T8 U
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
/ N6 L9 N2 m2 V7 p) Y' E7 s9 N High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 b6 A) _  j" K- C
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) ]' M4 [1 f  l+ ]5 v3 ]billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% v7 L/ g1 H9 q  d8 q* Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ D7 Y8 F/ k  b9 q2 ^& l3 m5 N2 {CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' X/ @4 ~8 l4 ]# h8 h7 Z# z, `positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.6 C, ~/ e5 Y- x: I, D
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble" U6 I0 a# N, j7 s
finding financing.
, L" d/ Y9 G4 R) N$ l5 a- w Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they4 Z' v" e3 r  e0 o6 X4 \( e0 X1 H
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.1 ]+ `& X( [) [' P& y6 T! U
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
8 I- y: N% E; `5 |) }2 {is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ d7 R5 n& J1 @& w$ D) r
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% _  j9 m- S: B0 z1 R' a' K
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 ~8 R' \3 r6 }; j( K European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; \  \7 h$ b1 ^* u8 J: ~& G' g5 X" V4 [
today.4 f2 v5 ~; ?+ g( |3 [* q6 [
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
$ k" G/ F* P- @- L. xemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) y8 L( d, |! \% L* g# i* U
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for$ h: L6 [3 ~! b' p9 y* U2 n9 o$ W1 d
the Greek default.! t, A9 u; F) x' \& W
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:5 ^& y* ^: r5 v2 m& h2 Y% D
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ u1 i+ j) l  g; W2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign3 g9 {. R* j# u: l
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.5 _3 \. ?8 X1 @  B* R9 S
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
7 r- {. t, x. m1 sbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
8 c: A3 m: l6 K4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.' y4 L: T& N% A5 s
/ y. P  c' `; S2 \0 |. L/ H# W
Beyond Greece
+ c- b, }( G1 P9 q3 n8 s The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),. i- ?  n8 D1 a6 P# k
but that was before Italy.
" p! J0 f  x. y' \( Z& N4 w# d It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
( ^# g6 d5 ~6 m0 O, I  X. Q It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the% N  j9 j2 k) C$ A/ r
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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, a; Q9 f7 R1 z& ^Conclusion! X3 [, M, f6 z: R) l4 R. q, r. Z" ?1 T/ L
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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