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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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0 [+ p2 |  v( q. Z# u' |2 rMarket Commentary" n# @& c" V$ a- @  o, P
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
3 W9 C- Y. @# o2 z8 p. vJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! E! e' @  t" i7 Z" D2 z/ B6 @Signature Global Advisors3 U5 m# E# g& e! u2 O/ U5 n
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2 \& S5 D$ b) p1 @8 F2 H" H6 PBackground remarks
( d# x6 a1 p8 q' R Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
, h" n* I7 z2 j* x. Xas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.- C# l% q  f0 P6 e. o1 n
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal8 n8 z* X2 T! l. n# k
adjustments.
" M" ~/ D; l, I This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
7 F7 m8 d! }" |# p! N5 ]  i$ Gsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
; g( ]& T" h( P8 c. z* T Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are5 ?+ v" y& T6 D; B6 k1 j
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: C- p" i) F2 o0 x0 M6 F
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these( ]7 X) c% x" Y* |) L
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.: B  ?( U) r* d! R& c
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s6 {! K. N* t0 A  L6 E% o- ]& j+ [" y
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 ]6 H4 Z4 i0 y5 L  {& |! w
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
5 j2 \% t1 H1 `4 `/ b+ v0 B0 m Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have$ g, c+ L! M0 m" _: }; j
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation: M: [' @8 M3 B) S$ I$ _
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" D/ m, m7 T3 l- C" L6 n; s
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" D! m5 ~2 }5 n) q
impose liquidation values.2 B8 o, d) @/ F# B* w3 ]
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 F$ [: e- x2 r) q$ wAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ k. r1 T4 |3 [9 H! K7 r( C
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
5 w# G1 s- a! x: L1 D* }( r7 N5 Rscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ X' C  S( o! q8 b

8 O- i7 m0 z! WA look at credit markets
) @/ z. b! L7 \  `2 D Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
. {* D9 L" `3 x2 s3 zSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
, v/ K0 |# R% I7 t4 B2 ` High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- U2 V# L" T, j. Ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
  o. z. X& q9 W* W5 t% X  L$ u7 Abillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" D& A) j. E. p6 T( Y5 p5 n0 q' W
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
& o! p4 m; L: o' \# kCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
  y3 D" _! a! Npositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
" Z0 Y7 j2 |# v3 @1 a: ^ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble! z2 Y: J, V: s2 C" j
finding financing.
1 J. x" ?% }2 Z: d# S Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 c' F3 a, O" H+ g0 jwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% p' ^; e7 _2 h5 E2 p$ t8 o Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
# R8 A: L  j" `) N! j( H  m+ `' iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. i, }1 l0 z$ ?/ _. V$ O
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for  f3 g0 ]- c7 P
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, N; Y3 {- y$ n( ` European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, o$ J8 M$ L. m) w
today.
! p" R4 C$ r' u! H Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% M6 }9 z6 _* o1 J* N; G
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda# \" ~1 v! g4 ^0 I
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
6 r; f$ D* k% q0 r9 R  G3 x4 Gthe Greek default.' F$ T# H3 L' Z
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
4 a2 v8 n% d- t) h  J  |$ r9 G1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
3 @- ~/ L9 q$ N4 n2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign) |0 \( X+ S0 C7 _7 e. H
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.( j9 B* d1 ~" q1 K8 l& x
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing' |2 p5 g; j% g( c/ T
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
  T. K! ?5 s% s8 p2 V4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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$ J: G) u) Z7 A4 b: LBeyond Greece( n& @# `! u" G: O
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),; o; l% q- [. ], s; A0 V: ~
but that was before Italy.
4 X) p+ O- q$ _: [0 R It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
, I$ |: Z7 n/ V It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the9 ?) S/ u; g/ P/ l
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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