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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
, @2 Q  q2 L" t1 J' d' b* B
* q0 Y% J5 P- ]6 s7 T# F5 vMarket Commentary
5 y' W3 l3 ]( q6 s* N* rEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
8 y9 x& i5 d7 T' X# pJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager* Z7 o5 C' ]0 ^2 n: F% {
Signature Global Advisors
/ i# D0 I1 o* g# T" j0 I  D2 v0 k0 {0 b. u' U

/ m/ s8 E. a* J1 M+ b2 m6 @  G8 vBackground remarks3 v- N# A) x* _4 T
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, k: F: a, N# F. c
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.# b9 `9 }" z7 N. A! }/ H' q
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal3 j+ y9 `  [' L7 q+ P! Y
adjustments.5 a  H" u4 p3 y( \% \, Y
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
( ?5 W5 ]) `+ F! f, O' [safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
8 V* t- R8 B  ^/ c5 N% } Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are% Y4 w" c9 v1 g7 {  \
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
1 ~1 }) v+ }0 {- i; Z2 n We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% ~1 g; A' \' l2 H* I2 Y
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.3 [" }) _- p8 n
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& I! E0 S0 f& N& i: j  vquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.2 C! Y# ^# `' v* M; Y% H. j
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 s) e4 B  E2 m Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 ^! V$ B! Z. O4 K
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
$ z) _: B5 v  I7 ?$ C& e5 {/ V The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long1 E" |; y7 z9 y  @/ C
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may+ B7 l5 ~2 D' ^
impose liquidation values.
! {* J! j5 d/ a$ E5 b In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
( ]9 u2 o  A+ H- F3 u) QAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.% F. C6 R) H3 O, ^. `: s7 I# j
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, p& y5 a0 t! V* i( k) f* Wscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
3 ^! X3 p; u- n5 D8 v, Z" @: a# T' A3 o; ~. q! v# P
A look at credit markets
" @4 G+ Q6 `" N" Q( m Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 H; s6 N" R% N+ S( `0 J7 ESeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 W+ @% b9 X" u9 f: G
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
  ?& T4 ~( |4 z! G7 dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# i, x& {1 v8 m% V0 q, v. `
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
- R, R2 c8 W1 Caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 Y) _# ], o8 a, o& Y5 GCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 [( F; P3 A2 W4 j; }positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.- p, L( w0 P- S' n% x% P5 F9 c
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 t9 e: y9 k( i$ f! Lfinding financing.8 \: R9 E. d+ _: P) ]# {
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
# r, S4 N) l5 x! ~& A* Swere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 _5 U, C* l% ~! l0 u
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) b/ V" M# i4 b8 [' G8 q. b+ q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ M) c& h( \' Z
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! h# T: M% W1 @0 Q( g
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 C' Q* |) t- R5 N+ U5 R
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
2 ]0 W! L: M+ }; j! g' vtoday.8 Q1 `6 Y. E9 V6 Q7 H
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ I2 V2 B% W" S2 s' M. W* a& B- |emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
/ d3 i2 U# x! r8 i* b& _ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
$ C% j. |6 ]* d. n9 s9 ~$ Zthe Greek default.6 e( ]  e6 z4 [
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& C7 X9 {2 s3 M- R6 H1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: K5 ^9 }; X) u* T" y! t/ _. `2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
6 @" N- z8 o! n% |+ O8 ldebt stabilization, needs government approvals.6 K; U: @" h" b" C# E8 k) _
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
9 s+ o1 e/ v+ q0 Hbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
6 m8 j% B9 @* {0 ~! I4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.6 ], C+ t/ Z! d0 N1 L
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Beyond Greece
) M% W" z! B$ A2 @ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
; a2 v6 f7 {: `  b: ~# i1 o1 zbut that was before Italy.
# l2 A) e& r. c) F9 J* b3 D It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.. l; a8 E) m, {* ^
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
3 A) d4 h: R/ C* eItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( M) r, j. |. R5 G

, S" L, h. G! a& V% h, ^% E. jConclusion
6 m3 b2 ?! X; P0 {. z8 f2 I, M0 V We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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