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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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! d, c5 }( q% }3 r& y& f' t0 d: T8 kMarket Commentary& J0 L$ j& o* o$ u
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer4 F& W# F% K0 I2 y/ ]% |
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! D% u. F- ?/ x, @8 r$ l, W
Signature Global Advisors  Q/ ^# p5 b4 D; A* M# v

" H: ~, r6 ~+ [. c* |
" v3 O6 \; X$ x7 A3 y( v0 ~$ Y& \Background remarks
& j( l, m7 N# l Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are7 t3 t0 J' A4 B% L- M) d; ~
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.; _* @$ x) n( c( X! z9 p" q
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
; @7 W* A: T" b2 t2 b, radjustments.
1 `! r) V, D) t& f This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
# P" k( B% S; a2 M  qsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ `; |8 L& }0 R9 {' ]. r Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
! h, r8 s& E3 B! rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
. D. M; y5 r# o/ ^ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
2 K3 ?0 U3 X$ q2 J& iadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.( K* H' ^- m* m
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s5 m2 K# a/ w6 o2 C
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& o& }/ i7 C4 b+ C% B4 r% d
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
/ n& @! I9 U" F/ N, t Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
9 O" z* Z) B' V% D8 Z$ C( A9 q' s/ Yreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
, c" j/ @' F6 L3 C The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
' Z) v6 Q! T2 {" M' ^as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% ?& e! P' x6 t9 t- Jimpose liquidation values.+ _- ~. N( a" G$ L, G, p
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
$ Q5 f( I) V( `3 ?August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ C, O- D% [. V/ O/ | The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
7 F% p# S/ b1 m( X2 b/ b) F# zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.7 @; t6 ]' h% c! Q' i  ^  G4 X
' q8 L" v( T+ @% B/ }! {3 r
A look at credit markets
- C! i' d% [* |8 A9 m7 B7 ? Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in- r3 D3 X8 H; ~8 |) P) K
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.+ R6 v+ p5 ]$ B1 `
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 X+ D* q' Q+ a$ j/ U2 h
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 K" W: n: N6 k$ n9 z2 s
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
, B+ D" z$ M5 j  Saccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
1 ^! _7 J+ V! X3 A: \CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* h3 H; C' p+ O3 A+ r6 i; {1 l. S
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& I7 }: ~  P9 m3 E& l5 i
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ ^2 }* F* ^/ W$ K4 `0 @1 Nfinding financing.
8 F- `: C& }; ]+ ~- W Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 T; \% r# F- u2 t- B9 G( ^# kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
& r' ?4 I& O7 c Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and. X+ s: n! u2 R( Q2 S) ?
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( L5 n- \4 O, b  ^5 A1 egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 R! k: k  i8 d; C! H% X
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 W$ m) J# X' X: [. Z+ U European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% `6 O: @$ Q0 z" I) X7 M% y( F
today.
, U- ^$ o; k. f4 d! g Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
& {5 Y% [4 U2 Q5 R$ R$ B8 hemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
9 f- i1 n0 _/ ^4 j/ o+ W  I Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
% e* }  d/ j8 r" S6 Nthe Greek default.6 U7 P9 k1 x/ b+ U1 `
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:6 R& p( J; C/ @& q' p5 E" ^
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
# Z) d( [( z) G  d2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ s# a7 X* Q1 q* Adebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
; f- _' V) I5 b$ Q6 }3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' _* a- j: E/ I' m& W! l9 _banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years  @; @( G0 X, m* v$ N0 A( v$ a
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.. n/ t9 L8 T* m1 i' B" u
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Beyond Greece1 f$ X1 I, q) E/ h0 F- l6 E
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. ^2 C" L( ^  q6 w$ Ibut that was before Italy.
4 P" c7 k8 r1 C; H% D6 I7 x$ J: Q It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
* q! f1 ?3 P+ I& u It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& w# t& U: b- m8 g- c( C4 p/ C
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.  |4 f1 ~4 z9 t# b2 B4 y

; o1 W, O1 E! w0 l! N) IConclusion
) I/ q7 ?6 G# K- J9 z# i$ g5 D% q& @ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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