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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation7 u" T6 a. p- r: U/ @" z% y {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long9 h/ P8 a: V$ b3 {; n' v# }
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% _( l0 Q, C2 @/ @- A% Rimpose liquidation values.% V3 v# p; |& L) _
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. `0 D! [; T5 ]5 g3 g0 Q8 ?! DAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. p9 U. m+ J/ t. X0 C) F6 |; Q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension _; S, a+ v5 J' |8 k' P" ~( ]0 h
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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$ n+ n& A8 i" i9 B, Y0 q% FA look at credit markets
4 Z# j9 h1 V6 F+ E8 L: g; s) P/ N/ e Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
D( i- z& a4 }September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.$ P: @1 |5 K+ U& U \6 k
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) Y$ S. T- b( E6 ?- Y J
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" b# o1 Z; w" j5 h& l
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have+ S8 B& }) L! _+ A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade5 e C/ s& C3 Z, y
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ x2 S8 @! P5 Y. c
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.6 T$ h* h; d6 W% G) V' e
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
% Q; Z" c% r# }( n) E, B7 n8 R- Tfinding financing.
- y0 j! W" P5 ` o" K Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! g( `- T7 ~5 E% v { Jwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
2 n% K5 _! Y3 H9 ^ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
% \' P$ m0 U, Z; W6 Wis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% n# v# ?( s+ C$ n: X4 w+ A+ Hgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" t5 N- e I# f8 H
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
" ^' n9 K: J( ^7 N, k0 S4 L: Z' f European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; |1 Y% G8 y% Y& K5 T) O" w3 u
today.
3 m- [- f# w' @+ K' Y- H Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
1 K$ z; [, S& c( `4 k) e1 Hemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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