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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。7 E" @( F& ?* A! b
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Market Commentary
0 I  ^% N/ z/ S6 G& R& q$ j: YEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer; v5 o# Y, S" q5 A" f) X
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager$ m+ W+ }7 c; f! u! w+ f+ t! R; V7 Z
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
) N$ h; Q* ^9 L+ n0 A: \' c Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) U1 y! |! d: B7 k7 w: p
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
0 d* I6 @# s0 R) V9 j/ o8 x0 _8 n: X' } Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
! c6 n" X6 u2 o9 J- n7 Xadjustments.
, Z4 U6 a' V4 |8 e3 W4 r& C This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
8 s5 E7 s5 _: @/ x) Q/ U. @. msafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
. l9 M2 @8 Z( k: L+ n$ J Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
2 {! \9 w6 p/ H, O7 A# Mlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.9 Z" L6 x* r/ k+ v' P; i
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 A, y4 J5 `( {9 N0 f" m) [9 }, F
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.! E3 R' g* N$ _
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
- E" _; ^- U% y/ ~2 Oquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
) |% u% ]+ t) d& R( { Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
5 K9 J) `9 N0 o' B Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have; Q7 D5 i) h5 g3 @
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation+ E- ?! n+ k: ?2 X
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 C. o) \5 J( E# J8 p) P3 Pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may2 Y" b8 [5 j8 c6 A4 W4 d2 Z
impose liquidation values.
# v( z  C2 F6 d In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ `9 y$ d& j: L/ m  k) b
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.7 U: E. A: U# s# _6 _( r; n; Z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension* D& U6 n% _+ M
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
$ Y, p0 l( {! g Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& Y! L' Y  h& v0 m1 D7 gSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., F7 P/ M* W8 m" Q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
' S) [' w5 C! ^then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: Q% k+ [" g) ?3 \0 m2 ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# f6 k6 z1 _. M+ e- W  B
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. V+ p! o1 [" D+ F9 ~7 O% L9 X
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# }# k% [! y( @positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.$ g( ^: ^' r# Y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
* Q- x) \& |+ G/ U, \finding financing.
/ g5 }0 u5 [, H7 d7 F/ O Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ V: R# |. u. y5 J# z8 f8 l2 hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 |# r+ p9 l6 C: l3 V" X% N0 L
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# O) J, c8 e% O+ `2 z8 g
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* h4 P; u( e9 L* ~! Bgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
: V- m0 h3 V6 wbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place." m1 l; i/ A  I4 _+ C
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& E  ~$ o( w6 O: z& xtoday.
( N" ^/ ?5 c- p4 m7 E$ }! @4 A1 U Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 h7 u% {) C) w& zemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda8 }, F5 M  k; e9 r( ?8 y
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
* c; j6 h' w0 g" g7 C9 }the Greek default.
) V, ?  t- Z1 p# o/ ? As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
6 U9 V8 e# O$ s0 g1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default( a4 Z0 ]. G( A
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign6 N' l; o+ d) W9 Q% ?  r
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.; I0 G7 N/ D" M: K, @' u! P4 M
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing% i) g: N! X. q5 S) s8 @
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
! D$ j5 _+ W( m8 Q8 P, Y. C0 G4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece) x8 p0 O1 I4 J/ k/ f2 P8 N/ Y
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
$ Z; U/ [0 P) e* I% g+ f" U8 q( pbut that was before Italy.
# S5 j4 s) g+ G It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.) T/ S( p9 f; n. H1 D' @  R) `
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the, F, [: L8 d% B7 u( }
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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, K; N7 t/ u; p/ H% f3 zConclusion
1 f* {! E9 x/ h) ]4 z( f We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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