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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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) i/ ~7 _& q- D8 y; c$ ?Market Commentary
5 s% S4 D7 T+ ^: oEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 k  h* K1 ]+ D& a
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 d, Q4 ?/ Q1 `9 XSignature Global Advisors$ H# u$ l- [2 A" }, q

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Background remarks5 T6 T5 a$ x3 d- i+ c( X
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, j; T3 x. d+ M$ V
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.7 ?" ]& {6 }9 {. A7 q9 |9 Z9 S
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal( u0 \* j+ G1 ^8 |/ t2 f6 q+ W. _, \' G
adjustments.
, g( j- l& `/ C. r This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social' u4 a& |' n1 ^1 z
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
2 k* u+ T5 \' j+ |# ?' b7 m/ C Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
$ u. q2 q% B5 @; L, B8 alessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* ]+ f  _& T. N We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these6 R0 r& ?# B2 O; R2 _9 J
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 S0 Z1 {) t5 H. o9 R
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& R( f7 V5 N4 s9 M7 g& B3 |quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.9 z* R' A$ H1 M
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
# q+ z$ \) Q; B( R" {' Q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 y/ g) h- m8 y1 [; G# ~, ^1 M
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation! H4 h7 B2 g3 [4 o8 w- ]8 _. A
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long  \% r& s# ?  C" U& H$ k
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
0 X9 q7 l' U. Eimpose liquidation values.
  ^3 ^! O6 H$ k, e/ i In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 G  M  V* b3 U* ^+ I* `$ SAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 K9 }5 A# w' p1 p: W+ `  _ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
0 G3 [9 A& @2 {) W3 dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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8 w$ u* l% }# h% Q0 y0 O: eA look at credit markets" o3 S( A# ]+ w! R1 K1 c+ }- r  H
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: Y, F# \: n8 o; ?& w& c
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 M' P- ^& L' o+ i; S) p High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
$ J5 \# Y: ~# S$ e- Fthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1( X8 b: K3 N6 K
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( h2 Y" T3 s% Q; faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ o( Y8 E8 [9 ]! ~, G8 G1 ]  Y- H
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
3 R4 N% N5 n- d, w8 Jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 Y2 q! I6 {" c, U/ u& H, h2 z8 s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble1 n4 i) V3 p* ~3 @- I. m6 H$ k. f
finding financing.
" \$ U- ^  R4 [8 I  w6 }# n Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 @/ z# ]. H# e2 x: m+ x6 g
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. |# i7 o1 o* h& Y Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: C+ R+ Q4 Y$ M. ~/ u% nis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
8 }4 K' V% B! ]2 D0 d4 bgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ b) i" ^5 Q5 W0 v$ ]* \
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 m5 x9 ~/ ^$ w# g6 [
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. C# r, Z$ P$ [% [% H( i3 Y: etoday.: W1 |$ \. g- u- H% R
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* j( u1 N: k& @, Q5 P
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
6 n4 c7 O: W. m Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for3 u/ o7 z3 Z+ p  c3 \$ I3 I% e
the Greek default.3 u: j9 Q8 D( g) |
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:% h' v. I2 l" f0 f9 J
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
4 b+ Q; n1 n7 g- S2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' Q. l" h% T- O2 B+ a! L2 \
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.! G5 G9 v$ t0 `
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ b9 D# S! i- S4 [5 S9 gbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years- e. w; ^8 u3 }
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.* P  I/ K. f8 j- S3 H3 o5 ]
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Beyond Greece" i' X/ H. k2 ~
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
  e$ c; r: _/ a+ Y3 [but that was before Italy.
% q9 D5 W7 p) T9 J& m( x It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) g3 [, @! l4 E; _0 t- b It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
- j5 n7 n9 H& ^6 s+ w( s) ]5 Q0 cItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.  h8 _  {) u& k$ I
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Conclusion
3 a6 Y6 X/ R2 {( d" F/ \ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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