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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation4 [6 e- g1 B1 C9 G+ c
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ ]! v' Z. X, O
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 c3 z. d$ z8 \: q3 m2 A3 @
impose liquidation values.3 B2 }# S* S4 o( x; T- R+ g
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In* s! B1 ~" V8 ~1 M. J% d
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- R$ z/ v; y, p7 T+ l The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension* R p8 A8 H9 _' r6 [5 n6 w
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets." V; {7 E9 I& P8 U9 @- J' \
& q8 Y, U% I1 j0 z0 ~% ^A look at credit markets' F' F/ U% X7 C# E1 |" \- N6 G# ^
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in5 H+ G1 q3 n' w) x# r
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
7 a5 S, M4 Z& s( C8 Q H7 h High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 j5 i) K5 v% K% |* Z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
- Q( e# Y& _5 D8 I. }! @billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: T& v. S$ u% |& L- e
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade! V% K3 V. ~1 d5 u9 R, h+ I7 \; o
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 I. t1 H/ C9 q ]" d* `" b# Q
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# V9 p2 T; y1 k; h$ t" Z/ Z$ w0 z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
1 {; b; P+ L; g6 N0 Z, ^* @6 v4 ifinding financing.& ~/ e1 X, ?1 g1 v
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
7 [+ q" g3 g$ Dwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. L' P+ V3 T1 i/ ` Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: y, i) U% d9 p$ D* Sis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 g% U7 T& j% G7 j; j$ U# ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( B' {2 n: ]' G/ u' G6 b, Vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
+ K* `+ x c# _7 |% @ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain2 e% q# L: s2 C1 }7 a. h( {7 T% K2 G. B
today.
* r9 X" U4 B) I$ P4 h3 W Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
( G& ?2 \& O8 l. g0 Gemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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