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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
4 `5 t# r" v# y5 o9 g. E8 E* j3 G
Market Commentary" X2 D0 Y+ f" f
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
3 ^5 K9 ]* y; e3 }8 U& p7 \, ?James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
/ `( L" ]; l: ?5 f4 [) CSignature Global Advisors  `2 N9 r* M) h5 p  P' F0 L

# H, c  |: M" T. L' q# Z0 `% |! q( s$ z3 i
Background remarks) B. B( Y- c. o* \9 }' ~6 u2 i/ r  i
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; U  o6 m+ C* @: o1 j( ?$ z4 P
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP./ k3 d( F* R, X3 w# n7 {
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal8 C' y) d: A! i
adjustments.
1 j; i+ r+ Z5 ?( B8 Q) |# p5 }4 Z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
) X. K) c& M: c, |; l8 F- xsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.. B- P7 T9 O, A5 b1 Z/ h4 v- y" N
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) O4 S1 X1 v. p( d  U, ?$ _lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
6 w: T8 V$ r# y9 T- |: k We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these- y; q3 n& _9 T5 M8 r2 S3 F0 r
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.; M, q$ I6 R, s6 x7 y: z2 h/ D
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 B, {$ `2 }$ L9 p1 w  {quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.# e3 f& s: e8 P
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.: I" t2 U5 k6 O& x& F, Q
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
6 i/ U3 e- E7 g  _reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation& x/ N+ Z$ X# J' h  M
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long) a7 T7 J' r7 m- l$ S) I( v& L/ m
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
: g0 ~$ \. u) Y5 b  uimpose liquidation values.3 g* v! w, ]3 f$ V; a1 d4 [3 Q& K
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 D' d8 X2 E% k" y* o6 W# F
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 o5 i% a) X) @# a$ ^( Y
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 L" H" q% X% d. H$ |# xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.6 G  \3 o- C9 @" s

7 {, r. n, Q$ f: q6 X9 a4 MA look at credit markets7 ~' g9 y( ]. w, L1 h5 y' Z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ Q2 Z& y. R4 K
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 C7 v2 R3 @$ x, K
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 L; n1 q: K' Mthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ r/ K  A3 R5 Y& s2 u; t. M: Obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* |8 P: Q1 Z9 d/ A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade+ p; Q+ Q$ Y8 V4 b; ^/ J4 y
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
  l+ R+ O7 _; Apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.9 `6 y9 e: C! Z, h3 C2 r% t
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble+ O. h8 [  N* q! M
finding financing.
; m& n0 u8 Z" ]; i2 B Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; T$ j0 q. ?/ j/ ~8 cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 F1 {4 A3 j4 i7 H7 V Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 r5 ]' |( q% g
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
# h. x: R& @2 J: N8 [going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. C0 {. K/ x: S1 Zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) E* o& [# B" T' Q  ? European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain9 J( f) Z5 S! Z$ u8 W
today.
2 f. a: K+ z- y! e& b0 {9 j Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ X1 z/ m  }2 |# k' gemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ R$ r5 y7 Q8 ^$ {! x9 O/ d) |4 J
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for4 p# @) S6 \* Q) K/ B9 M2 m5 A
the Greek default.
. ^2 J* m+ f& W. t1 B As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  t2 b; l3 F/ V+ ~6 Z% _
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ Z5 T5 v' t' }* N2 c& n3 Y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign7 n  ~+ q' l) ^+ w, q; \5 D+ c/ V
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
5 i8 a: o# y# [1 J0 O3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
, P( i. s8 l  G% cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years8 W3 @4 W. s; i5 u  p
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.2 @- a6 c1 b  f$ ~9 o- m
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Beyond Greece
) t* @% B8 c( \- l$ F The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
5 [2 e# y! W3 ^( z( ebut that was before Italy.
3 q4 J, p7 u, |: ]" C9 ^/ p  D& F It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 t% Q2 t2 s6 B( j
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
$ P5 W$ D7 v1 O, {* y& k- S! q: oItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
9 {: W( ~: z/ n( v. P8 B
/ e/ P3 \, k: n9 w# G  jConclusion
. O2 r$ _, ^3 ?; u1 T3 g) ?/ h We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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