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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation2 d9 U- C# y1 _, a/ V5 W
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
C* Z {4 l0 Y; v( Jas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may# r5 j7 R0 j3 D' H0 Y
impose liquidation values.
- ~! [# d# V, \, h In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 n/ T% E2 c$ R9 Q: gAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ L5 e2 G- u0 c( d
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 S- ~! p5 t! @' _/ Kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
7 x; F& f# v8 \( c4 o' I+ g
! o. h4 z+ p8 h0 tA look at credit markets' ^/ R/ t8 q5 ~) s2 e5 p2 L8 _8 S* C' e8 F
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; D, L$ p4 q' @" ]. M; {! f, \September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* }- L& v& z; k* L4 ]/ F2 j High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
D' j1 b1 s# D4 Zthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
6 n4 Y0 I" {9 H. p/ Abillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have3 J7 [( o4 m6 \" G& n
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade1 U7 g9 A. q! m/ Y3 F
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, _* `4 `3 K2 G S# \
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 c: T5 ` h( @! D1 h! I Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble; q: u( R0 V/ a& _' N6 l
finding financing.% a7 I2 `6 V& F" b, \
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 B+ j, r. ]( T. P, |2 W( E6 Y, Z, Xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
0 M8 k5 `" }: t* V Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
* q' Z4 e: H: xis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* M' [8 F# G) G1 G5 Z/ w! W) W$ lgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for7 }" C. D8 B/ `0 U; q6 F6 d
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.$ d6 M: B( h- ]4 H# V2 @- g7 d
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain9 K9 h6 c4 c. a6 J) w8 s" n M1 e, q
today.' \, w5 e6 j$ L# L
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
8 U% i( e8 w3 ]* ], y% I* Uemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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