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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
3 R; e7 s. T% G$ j( ^* {% `( y The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 S& N$ m' c$ `, [! n9 J/ d
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 |/ G/ H( q! q; k3 a% v0 ?
impose liquidation values.3 @8 c7 }) L9 F
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In& ` H4 D% n- x, z, Q7 Q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
6 e1 G b' ^0 x+ C0 H The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 t- m2 K$ D( U0 `. ~: N: fscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
; J1 ?8 U: q( d0 B& X
# K$ X5 N$ U W1 EA look at credit markets
) g( l6 ~/ J/ T) n Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
. `2 O3 M4 J [' m" m3 u2 f4 RSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 R) r# D; J' X' R+ y+ Z, a% M+ w High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 |6 `" Y; F8 Z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& X# d9 K% ~% o! b1 x8 |billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
- z. @+ l1 k; z7 d5 n+ g8 b5 oaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade1 A- s! A: y% J% |0 d& ~3 b8 g
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 s' S% ~5 ~1 { `& F+ k% n- d
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.- m. V& g8 K* R$ u3 }& p7 R& T+ f ~
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) K2 l* J' U1 ~) Ufinding financing.
! [2 Q& Q$ I& m- H ^- D% y5 { Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they4 W3 U4 r- \$ v Q. f g/ o
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- j7 a6 z/ e4 h% W. }; S: B) R! d
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 y7 S7 I/ W9 w& his now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* _) A: J& i, ~. `( X4 a, d0 {
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
! h9 J( ?* [% ~& x6 \bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
/ `2 C! E. b: \' t European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
h4 |! _. F4 a5 o+ Gtoday.
( V u$ \4 H( d7 q7 c! A& b Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in& |7 P# _! _' Q0 n: O# C, A, E
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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