埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2440|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' O* c. }/ f- ~4 F- i2 D9 }3 [

  j* `+ R0 [3 g* y0 n; v+ eMarket Commentary4 r& s$ x4 t+ k/ F! @8 l
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. @0 O1 K" R* l+ |+ R- DJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. b0 G' Z! o! o; C" A! Y, A, q
Signature Global Advisors
% o3 R9 ~6 N3 J
8 C9 S7 Z* s, U' U4 k* |& ~$ f% X% o. z( U
Background remarks7 ~* R( a9 e  J7 p; P! f8 v& m
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& d4 G! z; k4 j  y0 Tas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.  b( ~0 b& U/ S5 X, T% v' K+ I$ k
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( t0 d& L/ h$ h8 L: aadjustments.3 Y1 ^( t* D' k
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social! J+ D/ p: Y( D' v) m' t$ O; @
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.' V& O: y/ C. r$ y5 s& y. T
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are& [4 ?' H0 p. G1 \, O6 Q
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
% t5 q, T/ w$ s  n- h: }0 \3 G* J We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these  x: F9 F; N! r7 T% ?" _$ K: }
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.$ z3 x1 R0 ?( F% s0 h6 ?
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
' u$ n1 e+ m6 f9 |quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. N9 S% {7 E. X& l" d! Y) U5 Q% w Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
- Z# V; e$ W; V7 I1 q! u Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
: k- ?, e; D& I8 e1 E1 yreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
" ]1 m% m- l) L  ]* T; j3 M The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long' t# S  j; F8 H6 u6 _+ u
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, K4 _/ ~9 g) Q; }; z+ _0 Qimpose liquidation values.
. z4 c$ X- ^9 a In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In& r7 S! Q: V1 e- e
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.3 ~" i. U, z# y  @) O) x- z; \1 I
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ V3 `4 V1 X$ H" v' W4 a$ g" q
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ |$ F4 [. C- i7 n& a- c
& q8 x9 Y# D, ~7 u  x, E
A look at credit markets: L3 H1 k& S! ]- C7 h/ O" t# [! }$ d
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) o1 G6 r7 x, BSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. q1 s( k4 H4 @ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
' f: c2 Z% E2 d9 d, r/ Bthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
* ~1 c" p# w7 }1 B0 @) u9 V2 tbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ O! L! [7 d. n8 z% g4 Kaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, @" [' r" |+ HCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- j+ Q9 Y8 _9 c/ K# h- @positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.; [3 u: Y6 |) q: G; `* C
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
  b9 v2 X/ {' E$ t8 c& H% Pfinding financing.' v, g8 \& l/ s
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
4 D3 z- y+ u+ p5 ?, Rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 r/ r5 h' X( w( s
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
1 f6 z4 ]- w+ u7 ais now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 x6 S: l) b; M2 w8 ^( P
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 k) R1 D# {$ g- k( ~( [7 E8 N2 ]bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
8 n: W) z6 O8 e" c6 w6 {# I# i European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; k# |" `, s+ |+ g6 T) G, q. X
today." z0 J+ n  {" s/ M/ h8 u6 R  i
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" l# o  n) x, l# p* f# x* v+ ^
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ l0 G: z7 R, Y5 y$ f Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for0 Q- k* n4 I3 _# D4 v; V
the Greek default.  ~' k# z, ]) R3 B1 O
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
0 Y* j0 k- N+ w' a1 X) c4 h. P1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: p3 N, x- h" Y) E1 v2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 f. q$ l; |' c6 o( M4 `* L- c
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.. U0 j4 n# a2 j2 X
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 |5 ^. w; H8 C2 `% p5 B2 M
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years7 @& ?2 p% @( X. a* r+ ~- [" x
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
9 Z5 V  a& }/ O: C8 i
. b7 a4 b4 B" ^Beyond Greece- t& g4 y8 X* n! t, |$ @4 b
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain)," S# ]" z" @9 z3 `* b% _; T- @6 t
but that was before Italy.
# L! B6 N) ~/ l; D: Y It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.2 E! S! U' }1 M2 ]5 h
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the# Q5 W9 ^  ?) |2 k1 _, @
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
! V$ j+ B+ H; I5 Z9 w; R7 B, M: v( c, z- \/ L# l
Conclusion# H# ^! [* O+ A6 f
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-1-29 11:59 , Processed in 0.152515 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表