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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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7 d2 Y; s! u7 I: Q) Z( FMarket Commentary$ d/ |4 d& _5 w6 H- ?" p
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer& i8 h. h8 A/ V* C7 t8 p. C. G
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
" A3 K& c# S$ h1 ISignature Global Advisors
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% q8 w% _) Q; n6 T, Y; ~2 e5 S' Y' E) j; ^; h$ M3 {& K5 |
Background remarks. J( S1 f3 p1 v
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are( R) [  Q* q" c
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.  q9 f$ V& }7 H3 T# R7 ^9 e
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal" |+ ?& t$ N+ g) d$ e; N
adjustments.: g2 p1 R2 ]6 N+ c# f- U* j
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
6 ~' y. S1 E/ M' D: l* Qsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
: h1 h5 X( ~4 ]; s, ~1 c/ G Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
  ^$ H4 L. g# P  b/ L+ Z( }+ llessons to be learned from the frontrunners.! n- B6 x' H- O4 q; z
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; f5 S' B4 G9 @6 S2 hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
; |/ p. b% ^+ f8 C5 ?% q- C8 Z/ ` Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 s9 Q* r+ n% \quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.+ P' U4 e' h- U$ W$ Z4 W
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth./ U  I. V! w- |" b
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 R/ U. E$ Z" m' h4 M
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
4 z. F; [& G6 I  o2 L The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 {& O$ J/ v; Y. C: gas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may/ n/ i/ V( ~/ S3 s  Y- s' L% |. s1 ]/ _
impose liquidation values.$ L' P  c( |3 r. m# p4 ^6 B0 \& ^/ }
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
* d# V3 l; Z! `, B7 YAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- b, O- {2 i1 Q4 [
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 ]$ G2 L& ]3 zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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8 f, S6 z( w2 G6 uA look at credit markets
# O3 q+ W5 ^& W0 @6 l Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in' |* i0 Z- ]0 n1 o
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
, t  m3 Z$ G" R3 c High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 f2 c/ I: Z$ Z" z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" {" j* m1 {  f5 K  @# ?# L
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have% {% B) Q5 I+ S' H) x
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
: B( @' B3 n! i. g# a0 {4 ~CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are$ s$ H% i9 I- ?
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
9 `( N) t& K* j, ?1 E* @ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
1 H; O* d9 \- y7 X' F" n. @; C9 Lfinding financing.  l$ k4 j) B. b- d7 r
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
7 k" {$ j4 x# |6 }were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
8 V; a2 j; `4 _2 {( I Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and+ B  @$ O% `& J3 F9 Q0 V( ?
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were1 |! o$ J' ]; E" r
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
  |) `6 B1 l6 f% k1 ~& d. e4 J" }bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 k) C; e" y* U8 H0 _. ]) U
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ D% s1 C, x0 f# a+ i/ z
today." Q( @' s! w( G2 I7 `
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 X  _+ i# g+ x$ f: ^: J2 O
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda" R: a2 e+ O7 i9 i, U1 K9 v, J1 g
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
' D5 `; Q" t$ \( k# t$ p" g) lthe Greek default.6 J& T# p" r6 U6 c  J- e" G
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:: ]. D3 m; v. G% u/ T
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default+ h) r9 C4 i4 R3 q" F! R
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. ^# d: E7 V: d) ~debt stabilization, needs government approvals.6 h. C9 l; f( Z' K7 G
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 {; @+ I2 l5 M0 M' y0 R' w% |
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ o! @* S! b/ A$ {/ [4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.  t/ M5 j- a* O0 q8 D
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Beyond Greece
5 N$ ]3 `- f2 o The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' u" L! }% A' t: R/ Z( r4 c
but that was before Italy.1 U  C; P: E, S/ [4 y5 ~8 }& x
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.. t  u5 t( i, y7 r  J" F
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. z3 }" p! l% L# @$ G$ c6 }; k) sItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.0 l9 h, L2 V% O* F) t: c# }1 D

& o! b6 o) |6 S/ D* C9 }Conclusion
# j: ~+ H$ [1 a4 ]1 m" [ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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