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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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! ]9 C& l5 V1 p  Z) vMarket Commentary! p4 C% \6 Q9 \/ V2 m2 G
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer/ Y: Y, E7 V& a4 ?' U7 x$ T
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
, `' T; u6 c5 E* v0 _Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks1 I% O  r# z1 Q2 C  r, }/ n% N% g5 L; S
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
' q# |# u* G% P+ C  H9 z3 \, G. X' has much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.6 H5 p! m* f5 o5 M3 ?; q
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 z9 y4 X8 x% ^3 x$ A  Madjustments.8 |2 J, ^2 V& S$ Z: a" E# u
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social/ _. O) ~9 Z) `1 t9 O4 R% W6 e
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
1 V. n% U/ G: E Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- P  e8 `4 Q9 y3 [lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.9 V( t) j* [0 j  S, W2 c2 ?; ~
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
3 b& j/ X8 D% `' x! ?adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
) \$ v* M8 I, R! n. z, A7 g Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
( X  }' `2 v, J8 P7 E: ^3 Cquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.0 T1 v: \5 t4 m: o7 `7 g
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
  D$ n) K; C( m+ T4 f) t Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
/ M: g& S& Z. greduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation2 S2 Z. V/ X1 g, f8 W
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 o* j4 E( F0 w4 j
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 R1 T/ D) o5 E, Y/ k( k
impose liquidation values.
( @2 y7 ]/ f2 Y. L, m. @: B0 W In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 c- V& S) ~% Y# O7 UAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 v" j  n# B0 l1 y2 e1 _ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" ~# ~5 T8 ~# Mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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8 s( [# @. a( J8 n4 `" f8 ~2 _A look at credit markets1 q/ X9 G1 Z; E5 I, h7 z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in' T' y, _2 N/ ~
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 }* ^* B, O" E High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 c3 O# y, J: I) q
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
* B- R6 Z3 n1 n: dbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have% M  K, S6 x2 h
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
3 T! y7 y$ a- c% QCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are  U, V' m: a. j) K. n& L, B
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
& Q9 R. G- t3 [2 @$ V  D. D Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ r3 C: M1 d' @4 l: F8 }3 sfinding financing.
  `% {% W9 Y& r7 } Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they, ?# D/ }  ]" r; Q0 }+ i7 g/ l' g
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals." D  s! C0 d2 R7 g8 f8 s8 A. e
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! ?0 {% C4 k2 O/ D: c- n4 @" dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 ^# R4 c1 K0 H& D$ _) f4 K4 \going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for  K) E. U3 o' Y5 ^/ R8 m" A/ k- i
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.! [+ a5 x" p* `8 v  D
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 H$ G% ^3 q$ Ctoday./ \4 P: `3 {0 ?
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 p5 z  p/ B' {  Z) g; o; }: l
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( b3 {6 i- {* Z. s8 W Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for8 ]' T" b# Q9 H
the Greek default., E5 p& j0 M; {% l+ u1 }& T, s
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:! c" f: _- I: U: U! D# d. V
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default+ i) I: a! @& _* I
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' E" Q2 Q! z6 K
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& j& ^" }9 H  w$ |3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
: H# h5 i0 {; Kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 Y( f7 d* V! I' q& L$ T( h
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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: T4 W3 x: k% _; `  WBeyond Greece
% ^5 ~" f) ]; @ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. Q6 D, u2 T2 xbut that was before Italy.6 {. B3 n. d- }, G  G3 B0 x
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.1 P3 x% U/ M* i8 Q) N
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the0 C5 R6 N3 M$ k; b4 h7 \; b
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.3 S- M9 n1 U' Y6 n3 a! Z

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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