市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

# B( t' E7 F( L2 q5 FMarket Commentary
% X9 C; u' I+ L7 n% k1 n1 uEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
9 o% }) t6 y# B- F! NSignature Global Advisors

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, P2 U2 d: I7 z' f0 L' ]Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
- P  u) ?8 c+ pas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
# J5 f9 L% x3 R8 f Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
' Z$ _- _% U3 q4 \) ?$ N* lsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
4 f& O2 x$ Q/ {8 C* tlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) B% S0 a0 M) ` We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
# n4 j% A7 b) A0 x, m0 Yadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
9 P( h" @; ^/ R* \3 y+ L# A Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& F1 Y3 k9 n9 W: ?0 |3 }" V4 yquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 ?; H5 w1 S4 A/ p/ Y; Ras funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
) q4 w5 U/ V! \5 ?- G; r+ `: W In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ l" b5 ?* \9 c* z3 ^) NAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
: U% ^! A+ Y7 D9 z2 B- Q" _ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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1 _: J. X* W/ wA look at credit markets
4 t3 z, B3 ~1 h9 U8 ~ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- X' u: ?2 P. v! m/ j# I, OSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
% U4 c. P! D" nthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
- p. @' x& `  C# pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
$ f$ ^0 M8 B% U- u: z- |access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 T; o9 n' N, m* `, bfinding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, \8 u' T% ^) I* S. n2 O$ J* N0 v Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
) |3 x) c8 n8 y9 B  `+ ^bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
4 W% A* w' f7 v$ ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 F/ p. m  y" ?0 b: K$ hemerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
, h4 [+ o' h0 C6 x$ @/ V Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
! D" \7 L% o/ | As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
' x, t$ {$ t3 ^. z7 l3 R7 A1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
1 L8 K( H7 V: J8 h2 U2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
8 P! z* g- z4 y* ~. Tdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
/ O) }  s# t9 N' i0 K! dbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
, p! c7 C7 h% D1 v It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
- T# v' p! p3 f) [# V6 QItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

+ r$ z9 k: h" r: k7 pConclusion
5 W  ?& b4 ~. _, E: G We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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