 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
% v7 D0 r) Y) x/ x0 q+ z- n. P The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 U n* E8 u( h" Ias funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( k% K& s( ~4 M- Timpose liquidation values.
* T1 k6 \/ l! k) J In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In. o" [6 N7 S& V D! u" ?! T
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.! p# _4 G- V0 ]& J" d
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
: h: ]8 E8 |+ G* [7 n; Tscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
. g* _9 g- f0 E9 m
' B1 o) e4 B# TA look at credit markets
+ F x" y- i4 X- X( {6 e8 k Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ J0 e1 a: J. x9 v( A8 @
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
" o$ h( C g1 U1 H! \7 v. ` High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%* m- J: k3 a! b' I! y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1) Z7 K; P3 J8 r9 F* \7 w
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
" W0 [5 h; y) [7 C! t( Daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade1 W! b/ f n2 [2 }% l
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ N+ z r+ @8 g% W- ?/ ^6 v1 g
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.% I- U5 U- z3 N8 G0 t
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
4 i/ B/ a( a# v5 U" e: qfinding financing.7 b6 V! Y A8 A
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 S! W+ h$ I5 l5 xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.' v3 k: Z; }4 E! X5 e2 J
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; ?( m" [9 m" h( kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
; t- z5 k3 E* ?/ r- E" Cgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 [# V, t" G* zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.& _4 {, ?1 J: m8 q+ e
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, [! e. o6 z4 L- C+ L7 \today.8 s5 e6 g1 v# ?9 S
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in, e* C2 [) k* T/ I6 Q! g' z4 U
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|