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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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$ i/ C3 i: y  Q4 ?/ V( t2 [8 DMarket Commentary
0 V( h) }3 n! K% x6 I( g+ P$ dEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
7 T$ K2 E0 Q3 qJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
. Q' }. C, l! ?  g0 D9 ]Signature Global Advisors
3 V; R8 \! ~7 E" d  r1 I1 L$ X, r

8 A/ T4 e& M+ J4 H8 y% _Background remarks
! q# c7 ~/ Q7 d7 h3 Z9 [ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! [( V' i) E, _) d
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
* `' X& e' k. D4 }  i7 T Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ m, n# R+ Q& F1 _. ?9 R
adjustments.
1 l! o; D' ~. v& @6 P' n* o+ \ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  S5 h- G. O" q" Y# \& V0 N  qsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.( V- I% }% c0 M
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 \% c8 R3 {  S* n' j. S) q# rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.1 ]) U  l& E3 g# V0 l  A2 X
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ Z1 H  N, S6 d8 |adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
& u8 x  A2 `/ A2 V Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 @; t) ^1 m; u! V: |+ H1 w7 S% vquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
, c4 h0 a4 ~9 m Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
. T2 H' P9 b! K; m: Q3 }4 t Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 g+ Z! }8 ^6 ]
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation) u2 H! W4 B  k# J6 T' l
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 {. p( M  k8 i6 Q! M3 Vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 x' c# Z$ w& W2 Z5 X. g& O2 I) P
impose liquidation values.
/ a! g/ C: Y* r- {8 p In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 m% Y4 _# U4 l9 CAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.1 J. Y) U& L6 X4 L, [
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 Q! {: i% [- V5 @7 E. }scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ j& B  z8 J; @; r) _
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A look at credit markets
5 T; z4 O, h( }0 E! q Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# ]7 C! d' s4 P" I- tSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. D: h4 \) l+ K8 B High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 ?  ], i, p$ I; |then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $12 R4 W  {- y0 H( _5 r4 ]/ @- S
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
1 Y0 j% v% K7 A2 `access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, r1 F0 [1 R; W$ |# v! S
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
5 d/ m8 a* Y) ?2 T8 Q- C, ]positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
2 H! u: J# X/ d" l- i3 n- H Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble# U7 M* S% e/ A5 }7 S9 W
finding financing.
4 s. M5 Q  C6 j' R+ f; S Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they7 Y# b' Q; P- \7 v( ^1 g& k
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.# H: |! k/ ^. g7 G
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 K5 J5 k  w6 ^7 v
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" a. ~6 [6 v# h3 g. I; u
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 i, u0 f  G4 v. A' ]$ U. ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 s/ `# b/ L5 F2 ^; U* r; S1 K) A
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: {! ]( U2 S  w4 |today.8 p3 l6 s) n& c& p8 S% I
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in# x$ q) T) Y8 A6 r1 c" }9 {
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda, }+ ^, Q' e, E3 V9 o0 b: a8 s
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for' `3 G, [# b& w9 L3 W
the Greek default.
2 z, g1 s1 @/ R8 \. s1 z As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
" Y7 Z: m: I& A, [! p1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default3 Q' \2 W& S- U5 }) E, N( R
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign% `# ~9 t4 G  b
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.0 F& V4 k8 h# R# p  b$ \  U" i
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 _! a' }* L1 x+ p& U8 y1 q, J
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years5 Q  a) W# I6 Y, G8 ?
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.+ }! W; S. x( H" r& ~7 `) T

4 \4 s3 s1 z+ p- b" EBeyond Greece& d! f' w  z0 |+ M6 E% n' j
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
9 v* w* G! ?. N: G. l( l1 Zbut that was before Italy.; ?# H+ z1 M& M. J( @
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.6 [5 |# D0 s* {1 s% {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
9 f. G) P$ J, Q3 g' @+ c( qItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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5 J1 q9 L7 D( V6 c8 b# {Conclusion
. K4 z4 H# q5 _! F/ r: P8 ~1 ~; {+ W1 \ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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