埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 1920|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。! P1 S% V* R1 X
7 K8 ^1 s9 C. N* U8 b
Market Commentary- V5 r6 G3 d; b; z& n! w) V0 H% T
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, }% {, m. E- j. ^: |" ]3 P1 Z
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! V7 b' s2 I, }: j& m; t$ rSignature Global Advisors, X7 ?, J) A# [3 x

5 I/ r0 P3 T$ e" k& j4 u* C
0 C3 d* b% B* d1 k: ?3 p/ cBackground remarks
6 u$ x+ d6 v- C$ x" S1 S Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
4 Z0 o  V- V- R7 a# c; Xas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
" F+ ~  w& p1 ^9 G% H1 |8 @2 i Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ y& O7 L. Z! A6 \0 Y2 f
adjustments.8 c0 ]' l' x9 N6 W1 l+ y
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social1 f4 E% b4 K7 {9 h
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded." f7 q( W0 k( H- i8 @/ I
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 _& n" g# K- G$ M0 x7 j5 K
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
2 S& k' _  T' B' C3 k* Q We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
0 b8 O: g8 J+ X( u( e$ eadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
  V- T: @  K1 N* m Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s7 @  n5 [" B- X$ @4 p
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 d) a& ~0 t0 L- _$ i
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
8 O) c# m) ]! [) O5 d7 n5 T" ? Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have6 s% Y1 N/ ?) V' A. q* T. u/ K5 s" O9 J
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
" {9 `! L% N1 [, R1 H7 I: X! n The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
+ e' r! ~  M3 ]as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) ]2 U1 _& a) e/ G% ]+ w1 Timpose liquidation values.  D9 j8 v% u5 c1 U+ B- N
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In$ G. k9 p  o, r7 v2 m6 e0 [
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ I. j2 [0 |, K3 U
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 ?$ w1 R7 `! Nscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 F+ u, R- q; U$ a, l4 Y: I
7 p; l1 p% \9 T1 B: J* A
A look at credit markets5 u* m; w3 n8 S; @' U& ^2 [
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in) D) B" {' a$ f! D! u  X: Y5 O3 v4 Z
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven./ G2 R, u4 B* j8 _6 f* Z* C7 e
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 L+ j  D4 ?0 ]( G+ U
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1- j1 b. ^6 ]% }  p# L% g
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) y+ x# a/ g/ ], Y8 _4 F
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
& }6 y, F; M$ |, X! N! T* KCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are8 ]5 ?- A' D" U: q: {
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- t$ ~1 ~( Y+ t. _: f2 m' I& `8 g Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
* r% k! y8 z9 }  wfinding financing.3 E# S: |( O" s% p3 h" R1 |. r
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 N% x# ]) R7 P5 T0 p9 awere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.% l6 p% M) u+ M  x$ H+ \7 f; L
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ U. @  I, F1 \8 l; @# Q( G. j( Ais now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were& l+ ?3 T7 l6 F6 Z) j: m
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; c' G0 S' u9 o3 x/ u3 a' y
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 l  |7 L" s/ r1 {5 @/ C
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain9 n/ o4 g  q3 n, l. a6 D9 z; y1 _
today.
: |- W# H, o1 p2 G: O Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
2 E! b  L7 H5 T6 V8 Remerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, m5 ?% [/ g* z* y! D Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
0 v/ c: ]/ ^/ C! ]- w% D5 uthe Greek default.
( \8 F/ ^$ c; g  h5 Y( C0 n4 w As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( J9 D+ q" L" S) _8 r1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
3 A  ?) y" A% U( S* h2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
1 K1 @' G3 N2 Udebt stabilization, needs government approvals.# c" ?3 L$ P/ @5 n- D) G
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing. _) ~% x1 d# c5 x9 G2 b( H
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ h% ^6 l/ i- h& F- P4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.& D! P& M8 b5 ^# e* Y! N% @
0 ~: h0 d2 ~, b6 _! Y# j3 r
Beyond Greece
2 j; f2 `2 g+ j4 A1 m The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),4 |3 N$ r: F! _$ i
but that was before Italy.
5 D1 ~" z9 e; K) {- A It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.3 A  A" L' w5 {' G) B, h$ E
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# l, C) D1 _- `, SItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( B$ l! T6 Q9 w+ Q1 s
2 Q3 v0 F& F& P- `, W5 W
Conclusion
+ b9 K  e. j+ p. v( ^# V( V We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2025-7-13 16:19 , Processed in 0.137574 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表