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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation" {7 R/ q: q3 o2 h a/ D
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 I9 S/ D! s5 v2 C. f
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 j5 l3 W" B" v; d4 A
impose liquidation values.
6 Q% V7 j4 A) `3 E/ ~ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ J, q% a$ U1 u) B( `6 r% S% C0 c: wAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( a% z; E/ S& L7 I @4 N% @
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# {9 B( l: u' h/ O- P3 zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
$ a1 z6 |! E* }2 H5 B- y) C/ W7 l W3 f M2 \* `; l, e
A look at credit markets+ m& B8 ]9 N5 s" z: Q% \+ I
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in8 l8 e4 d6 U0 N9 ?
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 D4 F( x6 M% y! W9 I
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%+ @1 i- K z' M7 i, c$ {# a
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; j1 n2 `2 l, ^. [
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
5 ? |' v& Z+ Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, q2 Z! V5 o) R0 ^CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are7 ~6 n1 X0 M) I5 v, f$ I
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# M0 |! Z! B8 e) D$ l0 y$ w( s' _ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
Z, K' P) z( z X8 Ffinding financing.' w1 z" J% k" e& R* I5 v1 f, a
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
# n( M+ G. S9 Q5 Y$ I& B5 awere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% d# J4 O5 r# Q! s1 f Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. f8 \/ d( K" l1 J& jis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were: b6 |$ s* ~9 M9 |8 `( v( U
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 v( i- I5 K7 X* Ubankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
0 _/ M, B7 x. }4 m! Y European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain7 ^/ b# V4 ^% D9 H7 H# y! X
today. ~- t7 Y$ n; A5 u% R# ? A1 S- \
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in* N) L+ O1 m1 u: I
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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