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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。" ?/ ]; o  |. k" K, f) p# e
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Market Commentary
: o* b+ o9 D6 a2 b; DEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer$ ^* `: I6 K5 v3 p5 G7 x
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager$ t" u* u. A* [+ q& S& Z
Signature Global Advisors
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4 \  r& h9 T- a* _2 p  m. RBackground remarks
9 I. W1 e4 G* D4 L- v, I' O2 G Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
" U4 ?+ n8 d1 j( e9 T/ `% r# Aas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) d# T8 a  \! e" b6 Z, n Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ H( \7 D* K* [) ~adjustments.
( U% z$ t3 q7 z( S8 ]/ P* @4 M6 Q This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
" m$ g; b: M* H' osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ d) A% k" E0 b: o9 o' m) C0 N9 h Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
) j3 C9 x- h1 K' q) hlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.! W' r+ w7 I7 t8 B; n% B
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
: P( M+ E) @, y, Y# i& A( Hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
$ _6 k& ]2 d. A3 ]5 U) e Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
3 `* ?1 a# C: p  H9 |6 ^+ |7 G) X% Equantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.) Q: w( L; i, a; x9 D+ [, G
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
8 e8 k1 ~9 j: G1 o) l- H Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have$ d0 Y, i" q- e/ P: m( t+ H
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 d4 D2 ]/ u7 T( j9 u. z' E+ M
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long3 C, m6 a4 k$ b. k; H( i8 Q1 G& r- p
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may  z" s/ D  V3 {0 `1 Q
impose liquidation values.
0 u/ @% Z8 [0 p8 o$ T In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 o2 f# z- f4 v0 O5 F1 @7 W( Y! Y* {
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.2 F/ V, [* O4 P( t
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
4 ^6 I, Z% _* K; T1 r, q; \scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
2 K4 X& H1 r' S. C- I' O9 E" Q Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& k2 C6 L3 T6 wSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
3 N& D3 P0 @6 a9 c" b" a$ J High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) @9 R: S3 h! a. X8 s, T
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $17 o/ T3 q: m( m5 e- B; r# @& Y
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
7 c# Q6 _0 X7 Q7 s# ?access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. W& ~) a4 A/ l+ ?; R( p6 j1 S5 r
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
" y, H: F" r, i' Wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield., Z$ B8 c. f( M: F3 `5 j, E
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 c( R0 l" f6 A; |, [- L3 B5 g
finding financing.
2 O; m/ M( E) L- c& [# m Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they! n! H2 P" m# W+ t( V3 v& \4 R3 V
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! j  h- ^4 c# H; i! M: Q
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and: Y$ p$ Q, V- ?" S' b7 {) Z
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
5 U. Y7 x% R. [4 \. ~  _going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 E' e* y2 [3 X% D" |( H1 t% ?
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% ?- O1 {' d5 i+ [5 ]
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
3 N8 _: D' |" Z# P. Z7 {; Mtoday.
' D1 R. T# K8 J) H5 R( Z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
8 J8 [/ t5 o) {0 \, y8 G. ]$ eemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda( K) b! i9 w( g: y+ P
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for4 |, z4 P9 O) Y# V: `5 H
the Greek default.
" F7 T7 B' V3 _6 U* a" k0 N As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
+ H. g. Q6 |6 q$ ]  O. ?1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default4 f9 Y7 ^& J( L) D& v6 Q% Z  `) g
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
* {2 d( g6 Y3 c: Pdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
7 E- [5 E6 d# l3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 U3 D5 d0 z, s1 W4 p, l  wbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years: s8 S8 g! D4 N2 o6 I$ S8 b' U
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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8 Y. K  X* r' I' X7 nBeyond Greece. W9 ]% [! A$ v. b- N
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
# ~. m# i) Z, H/ x7 ]! S% bbut that was before Italy.
5 i9 @2 \, ]% K% q It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.* y: y( ~5 g1 \" N) x+ t2 c0 k; F( G
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
/ u4 s( j9 H" A% ?+ O  |; ?Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.0 B0 Y' r2 [$ W* y
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Conclusion
6 }; J# O/ b0 g We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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