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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation% I# C. r2 v, }1 g; J0 W9 l4 g! g- H5 D
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long; J6 L5 T r; ^9 M; d
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( t. Q+ {6 D0 y9 w- n, h2 r
impose liquidation values.
- B0 f5 F/ n) ^+ A In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In3 T" S3 ~. g3 W
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- t) K! R! R( `' n8 T! n j
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& w& L) T( U( S, U( H/ j8 g
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.2 W' @- v2 N6 P% m8 [; @
2 i0 }' G' x$ ^( [1 b, {A look at credit markets, A0 I! E3 I' v: q1 v
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, ^6 z& O, k, Y# s$ B' u8 R) @# n
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 P1 _3 i& A/ d, i6 G4 z% w: y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%7 @3 B7 R, z6 e: G) P. \' G
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 _& f( k5 B4 K2 b. e
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
; f" s) _7 P; O0 h" ~1 c: _) Aaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
$ W J3 x' d) ]6 G. a) Q, UCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
9 C) h* a3 P# A3 q7 l0 Y$ tpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.' K$ K' {( R0 b
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 _9 {0 }% n( a
finding financing." O4 n0 U5 ]/ ^2 B
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; d5 i, V. z6 T( w- Kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 y! r8 a7 y# X: Z% Q u4 r
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 ~. O% f* L: X# u. J( Y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 V/ A* D6 S+ C- j
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. T8 X. x5 T2 H( Ybankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 A/ @0 v* Z" p4 B European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
( D! d' q6 N" N. R8 vtoday.
4 Y, s5 b1 Z. [6 O) ^& ~ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 ^# Y: u- V5 {8 g' y- E
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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