 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation" B7 c; S! ~9 z* I, V
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 A" q$ @- f7 X( ^
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; J4 R; I4 `, J5 f/ D7 w
impose liquidation values.
4 m' a' t/ @. I# X In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In& @* m: {, z/ \1 |/ V) P6 g
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
: r" s- z2 }! B2 N9 S. @; G The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" _" M; ]5 c! H' ~+ ?! H+ Uscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
) J$ V0 `- \8 s+ i. b$ @& U4 b. Y1 z% J! I. C4 o6 W# j
A look at credit markets
3 q; }3 ?$ {1 j) L: E Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ e8 D4 L0 ~7 _2 w* c0 T, Q
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
3 A/ y' J' D% U2 Q& G- ?' H( @ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! e5 C" M. q+ S# l% d: Z) Tthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# ^3 x _( [5 w& ~4 x- r
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( Z! a' |: }/ q, I' W8 M n, }' |access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade! p; ~9 l* Y3 p; N9 |0 O
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
. {- q$ o z7 ]positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
" T: o1 l- p# f3 N1 A8 c Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble- F0 K; s6 A* ?- S# Y) `3 z2 Z
finding financing.2 g; Y$ K) t4 t5 ~$ X
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they7 \) M2 M; l$ Q a5 ?
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 L' N; c$ W+ ^ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 j( U8 Q/ c, @
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% e' i$ t9 N, w. v8 f5 b( [going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 ~9 P( Q4 ~( Y' c# Xbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ m* z$ e* a! N" ]# a: A2 K
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, d {4 {- O8 e* Utoday.
- C' k+ ~: w/ g* B Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in+ G5 n8 b0 X" x
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|