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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' I) |1 y4 B# U3 b. X  r% e
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Market Commentary
$ l) U% O7 u+ ]: k/ c# [: D! m; sEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer& W" q  Q3 Y( v4 I
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 c, @' i6 d. ~. C7 |5 ?# L6 E& l( ZSignature Global Advisors" I' J' R  t- M

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, e8 L2 P4 t7 A1 Z: h. O: u8 lBackground remarks
9 U2 t& V8 Y" a7 `% t) R Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
' b5 v3 S4 y; m% C8 c1 p' [2 Vas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
& F6 D, ~4 o# H4 F; [ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ y2 a; Q6 H5 m' r# w+ x3 e  yadjustments.
! _* g: V% Z/ M3 C9 U9 s& F/ h$ Y+ l% { This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social# ~% ?" k& O+ ]
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
5 s, W1 r  A8 ^- o! v& z: h Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
: q( w5 `7 x, J# s" b( V' k) _" A  Xlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.2 F1 |$ K3 G% V- [3 G; l3 m
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these  k- z( y$ p: M5 d% Y
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
' F+ G, g; R6 {% a: P% f6 | Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
* v7 w6 S* C, jquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
. D; ~5 @5 Z( G/ K/ ? Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
: ]0 s% ~8 u: F( n0 B Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; {; K- w% O* V% ]0 O. freduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation! y1 _- E- A/ E% ~0 x% W
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long6 x0 Q9 U" \' M! }# V- \6 H
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. U% g  C9 A  P9 d4 `7 g) Yimpose liquidation values.; B8 L3 R! O! v& ~5 I8 J1 a
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
7 W, H* b4 l3 @8 ]  l6 R0 }9 {August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- ?! }0 l. e5 b8 W5 ` The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
% x* ]) ^9 Z2 }& o/ E% k0 kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
+ L. C/ c! g7 j* c- H5 n- H# @8 D3 @9 i
A look at credit markets2 Y4 @" f) L, w# n+ A
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 m* y/ W; K6 i" k/ ?# jSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.- e2 B" X+ [5 j' `6 K0 d7 D7 e
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 b: C" B) [5 b' S: M& l
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! X8 V4 r# m( h- z
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 z5 e) q+ c8 P  k! ]" F5 X
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 }! E. D* u$ [# g% N# J3 kCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
' T2 b6 u0 y- u  ?+ u! Opositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.1 E  Y% A3 t+ _% J
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, y; T3 p( C6 W' a& {' Bfinding financing.
, N/ L! U2 r7 |4 g Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 W, \( ?: O' V: w- H) z& ~& awere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
" ]4 R& C) T1 j8 t Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
  U& X* \5 Z+ Vis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ W, o7 D3 \% \  y
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 N! p8 o- ~1 u  k2 r- Ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
" W/ j( G6 M4 l  b European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
9 q0 ^1 K) ]" L% e  b# Ltoday.
' g. r0 g3 y. w* |, ] Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in, o: J' |7 w9 u# _6 o
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
# j$ K6 @9 L  _, |* K Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
3 y' c3 i! J. r7 h* w5 xthe Greek default.
3 k! A3 x( ]0 ? As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
& {, s6 r% r( o: L1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
; W' H) n+ A- C: A! R' y% ?. F! d+ T2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' M5 e& _- h) F- B
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.9 R" e( A0 a( H. c
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing$ v3 y0 y: d9 Y: M( k/ U8 o
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years9 ~& r' ^/ k4 h
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.$ ]' O( U# H/ _, w' ?  Q
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Beyond Greece
# q+ q& K- X( F The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),& r0 f1 G$ b, i: e
but that was before Italy.
6 \# Z3 u4 |# k: k3 S! X' S/ I It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS., h2 d! L6 l' E4 D/ v9 a( |( h
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the- i! |6 ~9 ?1 }( H3 c
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 A& w8 C0 n+ X0 q6 D6 `( l' L' T+ m

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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