埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2601|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。* ?; q% T% g( A) b2 \3 t) k/ I  V2 k
0 A: I- F9 W% l) F: h
Market Commentary. j9 ~# k) C1 T8 @" \# I$ `
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ f2 b& ]* }9 Q/ w/ L) x# vJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager1 W5 _2 v: o2 U; y2 O
Signature Global Advisors/ `) L: [- C2 u2 P" `

$ W9 A) k7 f6 C- u8 Q9 v6 R2 N$ T* f" A( q8 j# T
Background remarks
1 {. }/ w* u9 u6 a5 {& S& o; ^ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are1 K  ?1 M. ?) j7 H
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.( z; E# o! U+ p2 i
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
9 |5 L+ ]( X2 v# N/ Kadjustments.+ ^2 B% n9 A# o( t$ x0 C
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
; y6 K8 d- E, I0 Qsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.7 ^7 U- L3 y7 w& Q/ X% Y7 `! [) \
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
0 ^4 I0 r6 m# G- @# Xlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.+ Q/ S4 i+ Z4 R% Y8 \: s* J! y
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
: X4 D/ G& Z& \3 F( c" A5 ]adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
1 P- Z0 M  {- X) L, `1 b) | Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s$ |9 n7 y' C1 ~2 f' p
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
+ `; @; U- [$ t1 U Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
% a% w+ h$ N. {: u2 ?  M Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
2 t  I/ z2 Q. W, Zreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
. R1 T% k% {8 |" X, W& _' X The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 b& h- V+ m  E! D+ v
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ r6 F7 w* m4 b8 b& vimpose liquidation values.
: H+ u& d3 i; J4 I  { In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 e% G$ A- h7 |. i/ a  w. D9 [: N
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- O8 C4 z$ P9 |( d0 Q7 e
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 |5 A, a+ s- n- V
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# m: p7 P& _5 \0 N. U9 z  q
7 `2 t( r5 m% \! o/ x9 H$ v; h
A look at credit markets2 P% x/ w3 K8 f
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- t: x' H8 D: C4 k2 |1 BSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 B/ m- J8 |. P4 s% S* k High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%8 M# V+ }2 G# D# G
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1' c5 y$ t+ ~8 g
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
; C8 s8 B6 u: Y; G: Saccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 g. g: S. i5 j! i: n
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 l% n; {# J, I
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
$ [! _) {) v4 {- i! P: l Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 D7 P. l7 a' |4 Y  ^, E
finding financing.
9 S3 j* K; f6 U! Q" F+ A- A' ^  L+ d! M Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they) U: g' p$ T0 Z
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* ^) P0 U6 `$ B/ n# x, l
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
" i: Y% \6 w+ Yis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ `  l* S. {+ L! \; Wgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for7 l+ \# z$ D! d: T! ]6 `- q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' t8 F9 V2 m5 ~
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain" ~; Z; ^& ?+ ?- c+ }& K
today.
8 `0 M+ f+ E+ o Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ j$ W) a( I6 m8 d0 g  demerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda; C- b" r. ^+ w/ [* t
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
1 |  P5 b4 ]1 _( Gthe Greek default.& z0 m$ P/ V2 m7 V, {' n) U4 O, m
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 y* N2 c' x& x& a* C; d1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default5 g4 }5 a0 f) F
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign( K: n2 d" L1 R
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( V5 ^' p( W. S6 X  U- G0 o3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing! }4 t2 e/ I5 O
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ s; p6 C' \2 y% A
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
0 w& h) o' t( V/ K5 G% T& [3 [% F0 X! L% R) n# k$ g
Beyond Greece
* p- r  e" X; E/ Z The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),, r3 i+ w, h( Q5 u
but that was before Italy.
. p/ |2 v, N( h! [0 U It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.$ ~  a  d6 H2 {
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# k. l' h' X( h& U" h6 u4 z' PItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.( k% C! h4 ?: }1 k+ w9 K( G  C
& \8 o- w  c/ Y$ c* p9 c; ~$ d) T
Conclusion* ]9 j6 @6 ~$ M* o  ^
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-19 13:08 , Processed in 0.160841 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表