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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation2 ]$ F/ X: W: c! Z
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ h* f- z% C2 C; c& R
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& D* ~- f& W* b9 M" u: v
impose liquidation values.
' b- m3 _8 `9 F9 t4 b4 h8 p5 u7 U In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
7 A+ Q# g8 y' |) J1 BAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 t/ W0 o2 V9 r9 a6 ]7 P8 l3 h The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 E/ c* w( F% e0 nscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.$ i8 G* W. H5 {" I8 ?
, H& [- c& N/ f: v' JA look at credit markets
5 }4 F! R0 `7 k( W: I& c% K Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 s: H0 y1 V/ }$ w8 r6 H( j* v j, aSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., i9 S. D. R4 ~5 d V
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) _- ~. t9 N9 V+ ?
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; U' q/ b9 h) a* _1 h. W
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
( |. F7 j. }. t2 Aaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ N* k. R& |* B/ v2 @' i. R w
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
- {: m8 q9 z0 \- x3 h h$ w& ppositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
9 V! P7 z9 y4 R) \% j& G# ]" d( c5 b Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble( _3 k7 E- W/ F+ I$ L9 G
finding financing.# F. @5 ]# t+ u) z, x( d* y: {
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they- ^% P* }! h9 f# A0 B7 `
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.( g% q2 J; F8 r; a& p$ j. }; _9 H
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, Q" R2 D# B: V( [& k
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- C9 h' r6 p Z/ S9 M
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* Z2 {- p" _/ i6 t7 H7 J
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 ~( m6 n: |$ y% g7 [+ [9 ?
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain B( [+ \0 A! {1 g* v" i7 q
today.7 c4 o! Z- S9 T2 _
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in' T; ?7 D8 @# ~: e3 _4 ~
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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