埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2810|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
1 J1 m1 E; R8 O) I1 X5 L* i# g' h9 f/ z' @5 D2 O
Market Commentary
; U0 g* Y( v; \& R' g4 ?Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 a7 R- Y; J7 Y" e# x; t  k
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 C. |4 O* @+ [6 @6 O2 v- _Signature Global Advisors, |4 B" h) ?0 Z( N8 _$ u
" f1 k' l0 h9 t" s8 M8 j& u
& u3 D, x7 \* j3 ~" j0 x  B
Background remarks8 Z/ G" c& M! A3 v- Z
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 L$ [) E  m5 D5 Yas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  G+ U" u6 b, S$ R/ z. w2 E) d" a Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 u2 C+ X1 K0 b8 Q$ Radjustments.6 d1 o3 n. c  u7 O5 @; Q- p7 d
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
4 z+ O2 J6 Z. @safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded., a  z  g$ q" J
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are2 m6 d+ S5 l+ Q: |
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
4 l/ N! K7 n! b5 x" | We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- B9 \) N" o, Z: Hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 X. A+ A7 |0 S9 h/ S
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 Z" R2 J- H, k3 F3 z7 c
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& A: A& H6 n$ i* J
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 D" u( Q3 q1 r6 ~) r! f% N/ \ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
6 n. W5 j8 s, lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation0 Z+ P% ?% p- C
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; d  v* R0 J* ^" ?# qas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. |; V8 _1 H8 g  X! c. ?0 o' z7 T+ Ximpose liquidation values.
! O* u8 j/ h6 F- E In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 A- d1 ^3 n% L) I- p) j6 t; kAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" {1 v3 F3 e/ H  o The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, m3 p, m$ P& m" s# W( Kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
) s+ S: C2 R0 B$ H3 I& `0 }  J3 N1 Y) k6 L
A look at credit markets
$ p2 `1 C. \; ^; ^2 L: ] Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 B$ a5 ~) }+ a( ^September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.2 s0 `3 k/ Q7 U# D7 f3 h
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" H9 |& Y* h2 R! g4 J) }0 Sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; h$ F( p0 E7 u$ A  T2 @* p# ?, l, e
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# f, _2 w5 A: [0 z
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% ^1 o  V( g, ^% p# E' F, mCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are/ |0 U  g2 P! ?5 C) d: C) p& k# @
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( q0 Q: I# y  H& }; N3 b
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( F& p2 r& |2 Q- }# n' p9 R6 ~7 W% _: yfinding financing.
8 [7 U6 L8 K& R/ b) i* @ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) x5 N1 p2 V' H2 E6 n# b# pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ ^4 y0 d; G* I: o! Y1 N Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 l: J3 v/ W7 f
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
+ R6 O* r& C( E8 \0 [going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 Y% t3 p0 S9 p; u* [8 J5 jbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 d2 |' b; c/ x+ X European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ q6 c" }7 }! O& P+ f! e1 C1 T* i
today.) F' W; V; Y! t: P) ^
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in4 \. S! |- O7 g' [& {
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) K# H& f  }6 q: Y" C( }
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
3 A+ ~' l+ n, f- o- cthe Greek default.- w% P. [, g3 C/ ?- R0 @8 y5 [: I2 X
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
: J! O- L+ z$ ?- I1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
5 j( t9 o+ d2 Z3 D2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign, J3 H7 A8 P) t9 X
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
' ?9 e" L2 ~9 b6 j  W3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing  e7 a- O" A; x
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years/ V1 C3 Z' ~7 {
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.( |2 h6 j% B* k5 u4 B" o

9 F$ J/ M6 f# R* zBeyond Greece' ^  o, a: y9 }+ n
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- k+ c1 A, l7 o- B$ N" g
but that was before Italy.
6 R+ T# C# `5 c- m4 r: x It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.1 u" `" x. R/ P/ @/ _% p, G6 k
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the5 C' [. V$ u7 S* T0 B) X
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
. b" k" u1 M3 R3 m# v  q5 v4 g) e7 U! I5 s+ i. b
Conclusion
. O: T, T1 l9 a& z$ [% Q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-3-28 20:41 , Processed in 0.163669 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表