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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。$ {  B0 k! U  v9 d

% x1 f+ o" c1 q/ E$ `: dMarket Commentary( h$ m5 N4 t3 i1 Y: c4 D7 Y% A
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer' }0 g( o; x) F2 |! P# x
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 r5 v. K$ E' D2 ]/ lSignature Global Advisors
) {+ m- }" d" Y4 I" u8 |1 ~% ?' ]8 b

% ~& l. J# R! {9 v" w, QBackground remarks
- t; @! r  X* l" r3 j Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are0 I6 Y. m4 d9 ]6 e3 i7 {7 a! a
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.+ E: F0 b! i, q6 ?
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal8 S9 {7 p. h: p( j, j
adjustments.
9 J7 h2 ?- W4 H. W# g- q' T0 t! [ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social; I' L0 K' ?: ^5 \1 E& d( L  s
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 H# t9 Q) y$ N& L: Z+ \ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
/ x! T% V$ z9 o/ g& H' ]lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: L. D: k& P9 [. \: o- x We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
& W! V; S% X  t; V# uadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.4 ^6 M; b* [5 X8 W+ X2 T+ d: B
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s2 g* Y. g+ A+ `+ [# I
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.: [* ?9 k6 s2 P8 R" c  F
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
4 T6 \& B( G/ U- D% B* w Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have: Z' V# |. e# S3 `5 C: E
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation* r" `; ?/ T' t2 ~9 _2 @* I( ]
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 T+ n. n5 i" ^1 H4 das funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; @, D5 `, V( G
impose liquidation values.8 m, M, x! q$ Q5 d- d
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 C  A; R# n8 o: W
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 t. @  O9 l( q* U The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension$ v+ o& o$ @% E5 }" v, N
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
5 W+ C& k" }7 u" ~- y
6 y5 Q0 [$ G0 b* m/ l9 `& }A look at credit markets
, w4 |; _9 z, s Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in7 `' ?# p! z- ?" o+ N/ C. m
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) L) t/ J( R5 ]8 B6 M2 Z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 x8 D' e' v- P6 I7 c; x$ y$ ?then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 x- I4 r. ]7 [% w0 A& ~/ m; O
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 e( p( T! h2 v. Paccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# Q2 q0 D7 R# c* A; pCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& X* k. w0 L( g) G0 wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; ?2 x( F0 W; s9 {% U& N Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble& J* M' p4 E- ]: z! y* |3 v* n$ K
finding financing., Z4 o5 }* `) f! p8 }3 e
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they+ c' t( Q0 s" {# X
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% A: P/ @" t+ x5 P/ E. H. f Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 k7 V4 B$ |" V, Mis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% }) B3 R4 g. Ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' J7 a% A" ^5 k% I* I
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 ?& z7 q" t( j% H4 W: ^' L
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- H- a% N; q5 ?+ w2 @today.
$ }. J6 B7 p6 l Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in- I5 K: }- s; `' h% j- U4 L
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
( N+ N5 N& S5 Q4 Q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for: U4 x# v$ k0 H2 S3 _: ?2 a; S
the Greek default.5 Q/ [% Q7 c! A
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
, V$ k3 Y% n9 _# M% Z/ Y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
* D) r. ?: N* C8 V2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
6 [- N! P  S, V0 v- Z/ j! bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.! i$ h& D, i/ h* I5 L9 ]
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 S) L" y( _) g% g* Q- A; A
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years- k/ s8 s. F0 V* v9 N$ H- `
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.& P( \4 J  [6 @

8 }9 W) s9 m  Z/ j  Q  f5 fBeyond Greece0 e* q" U- y; H% C
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),) E3 _1 u4 b6 @/ C- V& I6 I6 G7 ~4 d) [
but that was before Italy.) |/ I! B% G8 ]
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
. y$ ]5 I; J% W/ |# K It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
  ?1 F3 D( F0 O: [5 NItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.0 ?: `# L! L$ s
8 J! x8 @+ j, Z. {% O8 Z" @/ o- Z
Conclusion# i% z  Y8 B% I1 o1 K1 y4 b
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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