 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
( b4 I+ w. f& V, \7 J. D1 I2 ]8 X; a The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long! F: o2 M3 ]* |8 q4 W6 N
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may# j& f. P( c: f6 _+ U) b2 S( H
impose liquidation values.+ \* h0 j! v! C d5 M2 z& Z9 ^
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 V, `6 f/ Z4 ]% U' W" L
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- y, C) w; ]$ F, C/ k$ H
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# ]( H; Y+ F1 k7 K* ^# U- p2 Qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
7 z: U3 e: ~# M4 F
, u! H; c* X8 i- L! X8 YA look at credit markets8 n) U% P# {3 Z4 p/ v$ {1 u, c
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in; r7 G& D' K y
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 |0 ~) p$ c, \+ M( l
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 h: }' l( t& b. P, T1 V
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
7 w: B+ M/ S1 j" C' a! rbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have; R& L/ C9 W- N# A) ~8 \6 r R/ J
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 s2 D3 X5 u. o0 J, ?CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
, k1 J- L/ c# n5 d* \3 Jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.' y, ?2 k2 H! Q% ^, A
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 K/ L+ y4 d/ K, @! ?
finding financing.
9 s9 L6 m$ ]+ r* R Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
5 D- R4 H: Q+ ]: _2 ?4 \were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.8 S2 V2 f: Y5 j! v
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, h2 ^1 v& }3 xis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ E4 y7 ]: o) z1 p" A8 A. Mgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 ~: y/ m! g) U; g
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; L/ Y4 {! ^& a; _
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% ^0 ~" y: m- k. C7 a
today.
& ]+ i' Y: t4 O) l* b# ~0 y# j Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ ?0 G2 y, {6 k- Y3 E+ Z5 }emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|