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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary% Z4 m2 v9 K+ r  E3 q' Y0 p. U( y5 L
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer/ Y! _* s8 R9 V; u) d5 ^
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager, I! s% b( w% F$ N
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
3 B3 O' ]) t; B& {% l Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- x: m/ p" l/ u, O. [0 u
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.! D# s: M0 b! e) a
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal% m1 L% _  z  z
adjustments.
, Z+ b% B2 \  L, R, c This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social. g& d' A) U" U. `! h: W5 _& N
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.+ ]" ]4 {8 O4 o6 t0 b* e& X4 I, S
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are9 w! C+ Z9 c! i9 ^
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.( W* x& {# @# o6 r
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
1 L3 g1 K8 B& Y1 s0 U% Hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 ^$ G4 d) O' O' |( v
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s( j. U: P/ U$ |) j3 O" s5 }, I
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 r' U% _" ^& q8 {1 |2 s/ v
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.. o$ l5 M: \  U! D7 x
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have9 Q/ `* S5 i( T" e) A$ T8 u
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation* _9 z) z2 _3 ?  N' G( B
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
! w$ Z; I; t5 I: e; {  z. las funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
# b0 e0 R7 R: w+ f; F# eimpose liquidation values.
0 M* O& {0 O3 L( V" m In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
" W9 p- Y) o, @2 ~3 o4 F- dAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
+ s! I/ ~* g" J The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ V& n. v) K) ?) B6 J
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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; ~3 H( N- K- j9 QA look at credit markets
2 j1 z& @3 _# j; L( R( s, r Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, u9 W. z( M1 @; h" X2 Y1 j( ]. ^September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
; A9 @- T3 o0 Z, ]: k$ p High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
' f6 x$ D  t- ]# X3 d. [% Bthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! \+ v+ t* V- a0 ?5 \
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
& @& {- l" @9 ^access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ R. q. r/ Y- X! ?* Q% `( }/ C
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 S8 O0 [9 e8 s/ a# a; m, \" o, kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- j$ d/ D/ g2 u7 ^8 A( j Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
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 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they# Z# H7 g- x2 D4 r* D
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- g  r3 R1 F0 l9 V6 d; n$ z/ I Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) i% v5 |* w8 i; T# ~9 n
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, m, U6 C/ h# H* I  Pgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; |+ a: {5 [3 f( M9 }* R
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.7 @: M: b: u1 L) i
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
# l" G! p( x# ?' Gtoday.
4 F0 m( p8 Z& D! T; a" J" |( K Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 c9 _, D5 Q# g9 uemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
$ u( e5 J. H0 @ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
* k4 p) M0 K  athe Greek default.% k" }: y8 }" q- a: |$ i
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
% h7 N) @. G1 L' j1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default0 i0 r" t$ h& N$ s& z4 s
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ f3 P" a: y& ~debt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 Z+ ~6 V, I+ m4 Z
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
( B* I1 r( q9 Ibanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' Z; Y" `% h  c# k* y: e4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece& @4 l( v$ c( s" h6 g" h; R9 D8 k
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),, c. b  b+ j' C1 T( Y% }- S$ L3 t' A  D
but that was before Italy.
! Z: K6 r4 q$ C# k+ } It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! C# s+ a3 X+ _& ` It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
4 a; n4 x$ c1 t6 H. s% n, L$ TItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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2 V) K% S0 r& M- |9 e3 k$ b  {  `Conclusion
4 M4 a$ ?$ j+ i" c6 C( D+ V# ^4 p We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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