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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。" g* u8 X5 c% Z. H+ P6 P6 M

! D4 M; G4 b6 T$ v& Z  E8 ~Market Commentary
5 s* D! i% m- n9 i0 \Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer) H1 n( Q* j1 P- A; Y3 d6 w8 r
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager# k" v! q# Y* C
Signature Global Advisors; [) K9 a2 e4 Z. e
% H( c; E& X5 F3 y  G9 @

3 h* w- T2 S, ^, Z+ [Background remarks6 Q8 q/ A4 j' I
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are# m! G, a" q: {' _* K: y
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.$ C# G- w% F- b
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal; L: o$ t* X) b7 ]5 ~& V. t0 J/ Z
adjustments.
9 c# l% R- c& U This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
8 W; `* B% U( Z; I, s3 wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
; o2 ~5 g1 [- C' V; A4 c Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- E1 C* B! B1 F. q1 Glessons to be learned from the frontrunners.' Y7 Z3 ^+ m7 v  y1 x' \
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- R& u; V$ X) T, z- I9 N0 k1 Zadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
0 X) D! |4 w. K4 _7 w  f2 p  u7 o5 F Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, d) w" X  G7 z) g
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 X4 R* m& a& F9 W' X& W7 @
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
& o" N+ h2 a! v$ n Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
4 U4 L$ }7 W4 A! Freduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation3 ^$ v' Q5 x  C# }4 |* ~& f7 f2 o7 [0 x
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
: p9 }' c5 J1 c( B$ L* Z, l" Ias funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
! X( C& I3 U9 B# r, d7 z/ p/ Fimpose liquidation values.
, i, C9 M( e: M* |/ f In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! x6 k9 G9 }5 S6 D
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& m$ ?' O' v$ v3 j  u! l9 C. h The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 y# U& N% w4 Y) Y! h
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) ?" c' A  H) v3 n5 `) j5 f' i% Q2 |

$ y  i9 h: x$ M) R. R8 _0 @A look at credit markets
6 @3 p0 {: @6 Q  `* k  G$ y  M7 j* | Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in4 `7 y2 Q  y$ _; C
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
3 I) k' A. y& R* k4 ` High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& d; h1 q' `0 D2 d  b1 y! x, h' c2 }
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $13 s, v+ g) O1 ?5 a
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have1 t/ c9 C# r- V* N
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade: o9 R: E0 M* t  U. G! Y/ {( ?
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& X5 V) q3 X$ x" [positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.2 |1 e: G4 y9 g8 `
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble1 K4 ~5 d1 k( L
finding financing.5 n3 Y! Y" C1 s- b1 ^3 j. D) m
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) ~" B' B: C  N9 I8 I8 R- g* ^were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
8 C! h. ?5 f$ n( j Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 i9 q- b2 }- m4 P) K, f, `3 N" M
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 a1 t6 `- S4 X5 ?
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
% Q5 `5 b3 W  F: d4 N- a0 |bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ z6 O) Q% g3 A' O
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) `1 h/ q! j! g% C/ Etoday.
( X% i6 E7 a8 X Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in! f7 k/ r, i2 R5 D" P; T1 F& j& `
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 n' [( q8 t+ r* ~5 q# G9 W Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for! ?3 @5 f) |5 J0 |8 F1 k: R
the Greek default.
. t* V* i* i7 v& _. d" w( Y+ s2 ` As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:- J& ]: n: e  W! _1 p
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ Y% R; a) p# F" X2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign: R! p6 r5 k8 B
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.' ]0 v: Z5 N" [2 R' B; \% `
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing; o. z4 h* k, X8 x$ ~9 X# V. }, F
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
2 N8 C5 i' S6 ]4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) I4 ~/ G, E# `0 ?/ V

: I4 W- C% Z% U' m1 h( ~+ Y% W: eBeyond Greece
4 Q  J- W; |$ z/ i/ o+ q3 Q The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
- k# K2 d: h/ k  ^, p  |but that was before Italy.+ ?1 A" t- k0 }6 z
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
0 j. X& z0 \6 q1 T2 x It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the8 b. Z7 A7 L$ U7 Y: s3 S" }
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
0 w! W" C+ k, v6 q- Q4 V* a7 G9 U5 [# {7 S4 d/ b6 y2 W( I, y# Q. g
Conclusion- M& D# o/ S! d. R
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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