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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation; M) ^) \; D3 n. L
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
) r! g& W% D; L3 ~+ J- U1 K& vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 B6 H9 H, L9 H3 [impose liquidation values.
/ i; I) R, _6 E s7 ]5 f! z In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 a% {6 a/ \- l2 { j4 `August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 p' D0 u" b: E! ^/ a1 b The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
$ h9 ]4 \+ [& ?, e0 xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
/ Q. @6 u8 \* B/ ?+ `4 ]2 g& z& p+ X* q+ s; L5 z9 R& ]& Y
A look at credit markets/ |1 i5 ?" y# b' i3 q7 @
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in( C1 k8 s" ]7 }
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ O# P5 O+ m6 Z& u/ z: \ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 M1 u( P( o- W" n* d* }/ ^) R. Z! mthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 e% Y2 [1 b) F9 H2 W p1 {, Mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. B3 K5 h" U( ]$ v; J3 L2 \ g
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. w: ~- D' e) |/ rCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* d3 x0 C; t" [: z) S8 ?$ U0 z- {positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.0 k7 B# {- m7 K0 _& B
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: e* ]. ]+ g* r* s8 r, @- l1 ?" O
finding financing.( l0 R* s) r/ e& {3 L) ]
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they j, G6 o% T) `- v0 C1 ^ f
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 D `! v/ v6 _& f! a0 o
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and" D$ E, |& z& |- {' s2 J
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ q2 H6 i- B3 q& [3 A) l x2 kgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- ~; V" i7 G- l% N
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.3 g- N9 }' a- E
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ |/ q+ O; n0 S' O9 S) m
today.- ?) K; w+ U& I. {8 @% Y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: C" L Y3 k5 _& Yemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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