市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
; U0 g* Y( v; \& R' g4 ?Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 C. |4 O* @+ [6 @6 O2 v- _Signature Global Advisors


Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
2 L$ [) E  m5 D5 Yas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  G+ U" u6 b, S$ R/ z. w2 E) d" a Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 u2 C+ X1 K0 b8 Q$ Radjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
4 z+ O2 J6 Z. @safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
4 l/ N! K7 n! b5 x" | We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
- B9 \) N" o, Z: Hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
9 D" u( Q3 q1 r6 ~) r! f% N/ \ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
6 n. W5 j8 s, lreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; d  v* R0 J* ^" ?# qas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
. |; V8 _1 H8 g  X! c. ?0 o' z7 T+ Ximpose liquidation values.
! O* u8 j/ h6 F- E In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 A- d1 ^3 n% L) I- p) j6 t; kAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" {1 v3 F3 e/ H  o The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, m3 p, m$ P& m" s# W( Kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
$ p2 `1 C. \; ^; ^2 L: ] Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 B$ a5 ~) }+ a( ^September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" H9 |& Y* h2 R! g4 J) }0 Sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% ^1 o  V( g, ^% p# E' F, mCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( F& p2 r& |2 Q- }# n' p9 R6 ~7 W% _: yfinding financing.
8 [7 U6 L8 K& R/ b) i* @ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) x5 N1 p2 V' H2 E6 n# b# pwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ ^4 y0 d; G* I: o! Y1 N Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
+ R6 O* r& C( E8 \0 [going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 Y% t3 p0 S9 p; u* [8 J5 jbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 d2 |' b; c/ x+ X European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
3 A+ ~' l+ n, f- o- cthe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
: J! O- L+ z$ ?- I1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
5 j( t9 o+ d2 Z3 D2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
' ?9 e" L2 ~9 b6 j  W3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

9 F$ J/ M6 f# R* zBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
6 R+ T# C# `5 c- m4 r: x It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
. O: T, T1 l9 a& z$ [% Q We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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