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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。+ @" b7 h" I: b, w4 J3 J
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Market Commentary( e9 C; _- p- h- ]5 T" n
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer4 Y! O  `/ `  V3 F
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager+ j& J/ P* a: T: d# D. |! A+ b9 \' d
Signature Global Advisors& b- I3 c: ]2 T$ o- A2 r! [
2 A' X9 m0 F1 \/ r

8 j0 ], n" z; e8 j* r# EBackground remarks/ a+ ?# l6 B. _
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are0 W/ P; ]! z6 f0 ^/ K2 w
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
% w+ \6 g: T( i' j8 v Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 Z4 f+ h* w& j2 u1 V( ~+ Nadjustments.
' v! g. v" B8 w& [) G& {) @ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ o7 [* i: V9 ?safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.- D: {" j! m3 b0 G+ q, x
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are4 S7 q( f* e4 f" \2 h$ U: f
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.; ?! j, F9 y$ O2 {! S
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these! ^! |" J$ A3 c! r5 d$ S% T3 L
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% M7 I* ]4 Y( F2 N& g' |8 ~ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s; h) U$ X2 t( y) J1 V1 d
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
! n& w  P6 j0 x8 U0 ^ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
5 g- H6 O! K" P4 }7 c Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
: C1 ^* u! Z/ b, @9 U# M4 nreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 n- w/ R% `4 U; N The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 N, x' D% n9 W: `6 }& `) K8 ?
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
0 z* Z0 a. }/ C8 R8 Q2 ]( `impose liquidation values.2 `# e" s6 Y) R9 j, D0 z4 L
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 _6 G. H: j* d0 G8 ^7 R0 ~August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view./ M+ C& O, E' ?# b
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 D* c: ?5 D) A/ Zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# j8 l: }$ j) J% l8 t1 U( T2 `
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A look at credit markets
' t! V* C4 g) j8 F! Q Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ Y0 M  l3 O+ o" M
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
# L  m3 N3 r, ]$ q; e: F% f! a High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ b- u5 P3 W- M: i3 N& c
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
' d! a5 ~2 X9 o4 Z5 Zbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 w7 g; {- y" _/ B" ~# oaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) _% h( d( Y0 ~  F) J- N" p4 w6 b
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 ?8 m6 y; a0 \% }/ Ppositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.( ^- \: i% R' ~" {
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" y* A5 |! S  P8 U2 ^( {+ Ffinding financing.3 V5 W* [$ G( {4 n
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  ^( `" J; i& L- ^- i: k  ewere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
# e, ]/ @( Z$ g$ h9 C% z Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 G# K6 {- p% }7 i$ z' L" K
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 V& P# Z, h" j+ j  o1 V
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
* Q% ~: v# ^5 j* bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place." _# w/ m  H8 \
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
2 S/ X/ ^9 ~) @& ]' ~6 ?8 {today.1 ^" T: S3 D4 V9 ]" O2 D
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* P3 f) p4 |0 @9 H& I& zemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda7 j  X5 |0 J1 N) @
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
! ~  g; ]0 e* ^/ \0 n& T( ^the Greek default.. V' R+ ]% _6 L4 `6 j) S
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:. N7 g1 r. k& I
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
* Q9 V, a6 _9 ?' z: P+ h' D$ Q2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
9 `( b+ q) h4 p0 r( w) ?debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
/ |! H. H! M8 e( K" g' q7 t: {3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 U- O% {" ?+ C; c
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ N& @0 b" |* M$ H1 j( Y4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets., V% Z6 p) l2 i, p- o
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Beyond Greece
2 t! ~& ^5 o: Y2 _ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
2 @! B1 H, M, E2 A  r0 qbut that was before Italy.
6 N" \, m4 v) ^8 x  b It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! U" @1 |+ n5 R+ ]7 g+ k It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
! R: J5 J' i" ^/ mItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.4 E- w$ ~* b# V

# Q' N; c7 m3 MConclusion
! I$ T, T7 w. Y! N: ~ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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