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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation4 X( C# R0 {$ x) _: k# h
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
8 R( m7 T' J9 ^0 y2 Eas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may$ y2 i0 K0 D9 \& |( I
impose liquidation values.
* E, Z7 |$ g. v4 h In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 v1 U o) h) W) S2 e2 Y# aAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" z" @& e C I6 Y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension$ u# U& i) P& h; ~3 @
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; c4 d+ F) C# ^+ x& f3 e9 _( T/ K
! b: W; d$ @. i7 q) j vA look at credit markets9 Z) J2 U+ l, i4 a; M$ m* Z+ ]
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
; d, v, R8 e1 k6 d dSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& X1 M+ z( s E8 i' r" K High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! m: |' G8 A9 n, Rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1, O$ h* \# ?! e6 S% Q
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) F8 F0 ]" J& y% T$ [8 {3 w
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
" W0 ?" {7 D$ A# f& `3 K: [CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# m0 A1 s# k3 P
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield., v4 ^, H0 }, r1 Q, Y/ p, G0 O
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 H+ c: k7 `: @/ c( T4 R* ]+ ~finding financing.
W. J3 H% A' Q: f" S Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; I' @0 w% o: F) Qwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
) |9 c3 n: l x6 g* z Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 L% ^ m9 u- n3 F
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% X8 {* y: h; U% D" E& h* dgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
; H6 }0 r. K6 K# ~6 Kbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
: Y2 k' X( i8 q; r/ A) w European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ D% O0 b2 h! e2 v& ~& G
today.. j M4 l$ Z/ k! `) X
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in7 a( ]# l9 W3 f U
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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