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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。; z: u3 j; l& J; u
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Market Commentary
2 n4 o- b0 H# w# J7 z$ k0 S2 {Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
* X* [# f: e% n; Y* w3 b1 z2 LJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager" r$ c% o, j( o0 F& r
Signature Global Advisors
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8 ~% n. }7 ~: j" U. [* H) N
" ^3 Z+ f# L& ?$ E  A( M) `Background remarks
  v: m& j+ T: ]3 K7 v Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
, Z' B4 y) J8 `7 t2 h# kas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.+ r. ?. T1 m& P0 c7 }7 ?
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, ^  |+ @' x- d+ y$ W7 ~) {1 e, Tadjustments.
# p0 r9 g/ ?6 }; L This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
8 o9 Z% s# [: @9 z: w- K2 l# q& Dsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
) c2 l8 H5 V3 r6 t% o Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are& h# X( V/ P4 A! P( h
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.9 z  I  {/ K# f# d. n9 J- @* m
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these8 E' e+ K8 E' _* @6 C
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
5 I% _" O$ k$ m Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s+ K- w. m' W( {% j
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
  b  M; J" W  T/ l4 { Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.  o# r) I: |; o# s6 i2 r5 K7 y" [: q
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have! D! a. A7 G8 Y7 D$ K/ d5 w8 y' c
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation% G2 y& Q& ]& q
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 ~: |9 P2 _2 Q. }  }
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
& K6 G- a3 n5 z, g6 Limpose liquidation values.
: J( l8 g0 C$ V. E8 w& i In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 W. \. b" J. T: f5 g% W3 KAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.! x8 w$ }# \1 v4 b0 a
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# p+ E) d9 ]* l1 D3 Qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.% {' O) L/ n2 x$ d- _$ O

: {4 m% l4 R! [; B; CA look at credit markets
9 A/ k/ ~" l# l4 t- @ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 p1 u/ J5 p, O. e) d7 w
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.$ h/ ]# J% S2 r; a9 v# H2 y
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 W0 y( c, {" q+ h4 dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
; f2 `0 t) _4 n5 F. b8 pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 ]6 G. u: ~$ [# G( k7 V
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade* C3 Y  e+ L- p5 Q2 ~0 P
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
  ~$ @( H) T/ r. Q' Ppositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
' G6 W1 f# ^6 G  E; y Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
- O, J" z. ?" z9 }! dfinding financing.; j$ t4 F1 n( w  B. x
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
# I5 E; T  {( Z5 _were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- G3 h9 s* D/ o, Q& c Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
; H: P$ f" V2 L0 iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ U+ e0 E5 P  t+ U" J4 `5 L
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
7 P& {6 d: a3 e1 Bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- }  V3 Y" r; D4 v3 g European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain& G, j% U/ X$ T( J0 C2 C
today.
# I% @8 b5 p) d2 c6 d5 d. |7 |$ x Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
2 H- n; t( v& v  u% iemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
3 Y$ Y/ z1 Z: R! W4 A) A+ N1 j Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for; |. c- C1 Z8 x
the Greek default.: v2 t9 J7 d4 G
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
  E1 a4 m5 U/ p2 v1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default1 ?5 q1 J; O, T8 ~
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign5 T2 Y/ r# M$ j/ |1 j
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ D/ r3 C/ y; D$ {2 Z% l
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% h) v! z1 T4 z4 V* K* Tbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 B4 k* G3 _5 X- F' x" I
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) M: K* ^" O8 b! C* P6 T

: A( d5 @, s; q' e) |7 H6 xBeyond Greece2 ?  \2 W) l8 \- `( V1 j0 J
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),( a2 L2 ~& H+ Y, U8 U
but that was before Italy.2 e. m6 K3 m5 v: [: K; W
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.% H0 M! O) D# [3 O
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the. J) Q, U( C/ G6 I+ _' V6 R
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.+ x+ \6 S3 G' r/ r8 g$ M2 m
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Conclusion* {( G  V# ^) v, t. @3 ?
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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