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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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+ I; j8 C1 s8 r2 \3 c5 h% VMarket Commentary
$ m$ n9 f0 c9 r  }6 |; C* lEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer  t/ {2 h' m+ w$ I- \( S. c
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
9 O/ I8 A% c, ~4 VSignature Global Advisors
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' Z+ U5 j5 P& @) Y$ aBackground remarks
& M- e  G6 j7 Z7 S Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ ?* D5 x( J/ y# [as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.0 y. A$ H7 I$ z
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
& z7 ?8 l+ A, G7 q5 W+ E* r" Radjustments.
/ i0 _* t1 `$ u# n& H/ n This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social% d# P5 s* N8 N6 z
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* f# }, k9 X" {. G4 _$ w Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
! Y  Q& H0 E+ S8 qlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.1 X" }3 s. [5 Y8 A! t! `( n4 y' C
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these5 A) Z& f* r* o5 B7 N$ H
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage." D0 Z6 K" ]1 M2 C) r, ?9 W1 h- p
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s* O) U- p8 c) w" K
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.1 P' i7 V* q9 ]0 j1 j3 t, k
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
' m1 a, Z* v5 j- D" \# Q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have5 }' d$ p( Y/ g$ Z" F( g' F' p) y  o
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
, z/ u0 c4 H: E6 O$ L0 i1 b The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
) X7 l! h8 B4 u2 Vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 G3 j, M% p4 w6 N) k1 y/ E1 Aimpose liquidation values.$ t9 [6 {8 W) N
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In1 U% f# H* |9 P' k
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.  `/ l) g: T; }4 W
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 t0 A# C' e" q- R7 yscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
& r$ o% f" s6 Y0 g/ O; q9 R9 p& @! W$ S
A look at credit markets8 o$ ^0 d' ~2 Z; D( Q/ S' }
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
+ p2 n8 M8 F+ u% lSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) s" y* U+ X2 f1 v* v/ e
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! m  M! V1 O) K5 X
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1- U& q% ~' _, t9 B9 n
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have2 _6 D! d; E" _" Q2 n- d. p
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade8 A+ F  R* h) `9 \
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are& I6 y, G' Y0 A) \1 g; i1 D
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.2 t, t+ `6 U  K" O( C, h# ~
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 L8 O! F  u6 b! h' p! n
finding financing.& m( \8 @4 q8 d+ {. U
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 @  S  G6 @* _; Z4 u- Hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
0 D; u: f' i6 m( s0 n3 C( M. V Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, [# t* [* y+ ?/ ~4 V. s/ g- {is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ P( v0 @4 p. W$ C
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' T- b) x( h' N- o+ Q# G
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
( w4 u2 c1 M2 r. l5 z3 x European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 q0 I0 e+ I3 F- W8 a! m8 T9 h* z/ N
today.. A3 P/ h$ f4 V5 o' F8 }- C0 A
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in# [  o& \- |4 k* m2 Z% g
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
* D7 e  m4 V6 I2 z$ v4 N7 A. e  L Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  j. Q( ^; H; x4 s: B% X9 Sthe Greek default.
1 o' Y0 I) D6 @! n6 G, g4 R6 p As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1 M6 D  N! W' Z0 O# k/ y' m1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' d5 ]/ Q2 r/ \! T/ W. f2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign% S* N% s( a0 R+ R$ p
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
9 {& L& L! q$ r+ H* {% l3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 I3 o+ m, J4 Y3 e( Z* }) H. k
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
# W, c9 v6 {  M% a: l4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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; }" ?" l* J/ u; a2 ]" VBeyond Greece
! z+ F; [; T# `1 Y0 P7 D& f6 D The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),$ C( E; M' [- T; y
but that was before Italy.5 J: {% y8 i- z/ l
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.; `  R/ \6 h* N0 d2 ^  R. P
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the) |0 ^8 g0 O3 A! p
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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0 x* ]# L1 i" X' ~4 F; eConclusion
% O) X  C; R- |3 [! ` We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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