市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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# R$ w6 D6 C7 i6 C$ LMarket Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
$ Y2 A0 f5 X3 QSignature Global Advisors

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Background remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& o$ G6 I1 y, T) l% jas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, e# W8 \; s, q7 I7 ^ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
2 x$ }9 L+ d6 @0 O1 z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, O! ?8 l; z1 d6 Jadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
3 _9 h6 ]* E3 ?# p! V The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ B7 i* k: i4 z0 w# ^as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, V  x! ~6 S$ x, I* cimpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 B$ o2 k( o- V) eAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) I4 X. `# g0 `4 t' D5 {/ H The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

0 q+ d- c2 {8 X9 Y: t% sA look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* p; E/ _# M0 O% [; j! k High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
' A" Y' i( ?9 d& x3 G- E5 c7 K% J. zthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
3 d5 }& z) N9 [7 U5 z+ g2 Uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
  H) N7 I/ j8 d/ u$ M7 `4 Jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
1 _! m( ^7 A7 B4 n% ^! \ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  u! }% A8 E+ C* Z8 r9 t! j Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: {+ b3 i7 G$ m4 l* S) ris now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( ^% T! V' A/ K; ]going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
; C1 l5 `. H9 u# @bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 S3 R, e, j; Y3 @' f9 F7 t6 @! ztoday.
( B3 Q: f) |  G" I( B5 q7 ? Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
! y' E' K4 t- k5 n6 p Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, n0 ^1 |1 n/ gthe Greek default.
- K# O# f4 {) N' J8 m1 } As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
% n+ g. S1 m- h+ N8 g1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 E- _# U  g9 i8 h/ }2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
5 {9 S" [0 m/ u, s3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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& x' Z" B' E& Y: m% d8 @+ EBeyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
/ a  k5 H$ d9 T) d, y' e/ ubut that was before Italy.
, t- A  n8 s6 p* H* q+ T- C* F It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
5 h% S- G5 H2 ^1 Y, F/ HItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

4 ~( c+ G/ i- ]4 U4 y5 @$ _Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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