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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
0 {. @/ q. a/ }Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer  o  z# X0 P. T9 a- a9 F$ c/ |
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager1 \1 O, [6 ?0 t1 M. I
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks& Q3 i  i' i9 V( Q
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ M: |& i3 E' D4 b, A0 o) j. O
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
3 S! t! V( z! O* X! G Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, E$ \# a/ M/ Wadjustments.
. n1 D9 y* ^! x3 S! E) t This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
6 O0 J2 L& z% f  D* e& E! }safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
: @# l7 Y/ @1 t Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
; z- u0 @0 H! d, I% V+ slessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- {- ^. o8 |3 h/ |
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
0 f9 _# }. y: k6 r' f' i2 {) l8 D8 Kadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% a1 _0 \0 n2 \2 e# @8 O* c Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s* B0 U& ]7 Q5 O0 F1 A5 N
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.( _4 J% Z  W. M! ^# D( g7 Z( V
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" M$ M6 Q9 z0 ~3 n. C Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; D& w6 V) B/ A! u% ureduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
- A" Z0 d+ ?: |3 \, C5 D* r The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( r+ H; x; _' l2 B0 ]" `* L
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 Z8 s5 ?* @$ E$ j
impose liquidation values.
" E- d) M" t$ P& {) {6 G  v5 n! N In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
7 u* r* \. F+ M0 V4 w, ~August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.2 u1 [# h: |0 k& z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
7 L# N- c* J" p( H7 r% m& {! ]1 ascrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets5 G- c9 [8 d( c0 h  t# c0 B
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 i4 \& d; y+ s
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 O) e: T6 p; S0 A& n8 K0 K3 l
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
8 y$ z; h' U% P3 k' bthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 Z3 C) R* I* L. u! H9 ~0 b4 }" M
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# |( H, o* f$ Z, Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 o% }7 ?+ s  ^, ECCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 m- j' E1 f7 |5 W3 G  S
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) N- V+ }" \2 x- n- H
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; B. S3 x% P2 V4 C  S; ]finding financing.0 K  j4 Z- m' o9 g) n+ U3 {# d
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they% ~) o) j9 {. e7 n6 [% X
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- u, f4 m- v. ~( z$ e. t. H" H  a
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and6 `; \4 [' W& g) _5 s( H7 X
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ _# `$ R/ y& N) f2 g, _7 \0 ?
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for( i1 \/ I9 f7 I, g, ~7 L3 U
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, M$ U$ ^! F! s2 D European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain" {. x+ h4 M" G# d6 i: D
today.2 g; z0 L! z# ^) [8 ^7 N
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in0 Q7 u: H6 T5 s' p# O( u
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 |, O8 o2 G9 ?9 L" I, K, B. h
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ o+ j4 z3 G2 ?. \3 ~/ Q7 M* jthe Greek default.
, x9 a0 R/ x( p+ J3 q; \ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
9 e5 Z" v7 J4 v) ~4 G2 n1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
) A7 t' Z% v% q2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ _  X5 a( j* |- h* w4 A: k4 G: @debt stabilization, needs government approvals.% R' K- W! d. O2 n
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ c5 Q* v7 u0 w6 H& u7 j6 pbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
& k- L$ |6 _" _( s4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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) f- x$ D; {* R7 S' F0 Y; EBeyond Greece+ r" W. U5 N8 j2 z7 |* I) j' @
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),$ |2 C: k7 {% }$ S. u0 X/ u
but that was before Italy.
1 |6 w6 E* ^, x/ }0 t9 g8 G/ x It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- Z. P# H* n7 W6 D8 L# C
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the  M3 D! Y) n8 g2 F" h
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion, m, r# z; c; d8 t' g0 {
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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