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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。# z; Q  H0 X8 z+ ^2 [* K

0 Y7 v! T9 v: ~% EMarket Commentary
7 z( F, B( |3 jEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) S/ ^8 w8 J- y/ k3 V4 cJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
: I9 V. b$ V- M* eSignature Global Advisors
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5 ?8 G0 `$ b# X7 @Background remarks9 E: h. i" ]: l
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) w1 P3 b" y; d" _- H
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' k9 R" m, e, ^  ]' m" v) {, D3 G Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
7 l7 Z) L- G8 y+ P; {adjustments.
4 v2 d5 V6 q3 u8 }! P This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% B* U; u7 Q- x: T1 K5 vsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.% V4 r3 \; J) g/ U: ?
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
& F7 N% @; s! w1 i. hlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
! I; {- I4 g, X+ X" V. |2 I We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these6 f, w3 M) }. c( M
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* l' ^- i2 t! ? Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 Z2 w* v2 J. {; R8 O$ s: iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.( i8 {: S$ h6 `$ ?* H! O5 B. F( U
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.& N( i2 u( B. i! K# v3 M& @
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 u* S* o6 u- a7 L$ K9 B! j
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
2 {5 _2 F# m9 G6 r# D# G0 z The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 z6 _! ?" P1 f5 N7 V& Q5 ?( H
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ B7 W" R4 Q1 y$ B. c# T: |impose liquidation values.4 _/ N6 P* l' G9 f) |
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In) r' t& T  D4 d  L
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* d0 E8 i3 a; L' x2 _
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
+ o6 T# [( h, Q. A/ Dscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.8 l- T/ w/ m7 x2 B

7 }* q" Y3 ^& E' X8 |A look at credit markets1 h0 A+ D$ E! B" n; v
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: {& C6 `" s4 e2 j; D
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) O3 Q  X; W6 c  M* B5 Q. n# q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
( @6 R7 o# t9 k' L: l$ Xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: P' x8 [% q5 L+ l- l
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have1 V& b" T5 c8 J, d
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade7 a( _# m2 E. _" K6 l
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
9 J, E- j# T9 m3 \7 vpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& R$ Q; v- m4 P: m/ s' B- ]
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble" i  \9 a+ J5 S) j, w* M
finding financing.) _$ j! |+ S* F2 H% l! e
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they- B# l4 Q; s1 }
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. o. N3 T- {; Y3 u, _! U Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and+ w2 p: ]+ [) m% c1 @3 P0 n
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were  V6 {& b( {3 }4 Q; d
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for1 L& K) z! b7 d' T8 `
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- i; M9 C) B9 {! T: G/ ` European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) S' _5 ?9 C$ o; A' L) Q1 Ltoday.
( @9 A' ^. f# K1 c3 _' y7 W3 S Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" [& o6 x3 X) M
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 Q7 g+ ~/ i* E7 I* y0 w) G Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* a/ {" d- m& ~; M1 J2 b" ?, ^9 R8 N+ Q
the Greek default.
9 ?' |9 @- o3 V& U3 D7 b/ I' l As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:5 j8 i/ e0 S  x
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
/ u/ `% z, A- I9 A, y( a4 z2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign3 x; r# `# G0 a' a: w
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ h* u0 d# x% O
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
: O0 {: r8 y7 }% O. e7 Obanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 w# ?5 P5 |, a8 f8 a! n4 S2 x
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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: A2 i1 c  A5 l( ]& Z  k& b9 rBeyond Greece6 U5 u0 W% {" q/ u
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),! X( e8 K8 B- h( I# V. j% o
but that was before Italy.: b8 _$ e+ D6 r$ L" h) A6 F
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 |6 v5 T$ F  \2 Q
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the( L* j! b! w3 q9 f* Y1 O
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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1 l2 n* I+ S3 z! D1 W" I4 SConclusion
$ `. _, k, g' e/ h9 n) z We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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