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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
# }. k. P$ v4 }8 l, W
& E/ v5 r3 V, I5 bMarket Commentary
$ {% k0 \4 r9 m; f; r' \1 c1 rEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer" o# p, J' R$ I4 d& M3 V
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
$ l; Z# p0 S0 R: u6 @* ySignature Global Advisors4 t: `( p" P2 {) j; x
, N( u1 e( |/ i+ A6 D' R( G. N

( i: _/ {$ d; ?" PBackground remarks
1 \. f, C& }! Z; y/ x: J Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are6 U! ~2 x6 ?2 ^
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.# a* j. _/ }. {( B* U
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
" l2 J# n1 L) V' g- i' W  J6 Hadjustments.
0 S) z! v% ]6 D- y: h/ d5 G6 N( e This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  e! C9 v7 q7 X6 k6 W5 Lsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
+ Y8 V# j. q7 A1 r/ M* ?0 \ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
0 P- v/ ~& R& e, ]7 ]' O2 @lessons to be learned from the frontrunners." P8 P. Y, q7 j% n1 C4 D0 J
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these, x2 t5 E' I, l  s  D0 i3 M
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
2 `9 d4 O3 P/ J3 z5 ? Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s# ^& z8 O, U) Q- \
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
4 {: B: F' b* V8 L Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth." `, P+ H; ^4 \9 e6 U/ E
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 P; `/ X9 F  g* `
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
4 P, A) b7 n) b' I) _' Z# x The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" r, H& x0 x7 G& Z+ y
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" c4 h2 e9 M* K& Ximpose liquidation values.' b9 g  _8 M  L+ O5 C' A
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 Q6 G0 E$ {6 b9 {; n- A' k4 s. XAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& C; v8 l9 E* t& [ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
% m, q% y$ s  Sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
% Y/ N) y) K$ d% x% I6 X6 V4 u- S' m( @2 [
A look at credit markets1 A$ {! _1 ^! B
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  |9 n, z% x: n- Y. s: _. F# KSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 P6 c8 H6 o; k* ]4 `* O$ N High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" U8 K, s* R% i
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ ^6 u* G2 `% [/ w  Dbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
8 e/ S: C* f3 O: ^* Q5 ^access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% M( V4 z  B7 J3 M# ]' q; KCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ e  E8 s8 c+ X( N, p) C
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: ^! `! s( T0 D9 t( V+ L5 v1 f" z' U Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( g) x7 H8 ^. ^4 M1 b: y' i& R1 zfinding financing.
" X, Y% `. g: x Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 _- X: J" i1 J; p5 K
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 P" D& P* J! Y, q' |8 [
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 q; b) j& s. y  O# [8 z0 V6 |is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were! n+ L$ M' R5 S. R: e
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for( S/ R/ X- X/ v0 s2 P0 E
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 t( D0 R: E) E8 |% t! d- e
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain! C+ A2 O5 h/ w7 H4 s* b
today.
( j* _3 o) a7 l7 z6 y+ y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: D+ a, r! ]* @0 O4 u' Hemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda5 z$ u; @3 T; s* p  a, F
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* l  [$ f) \) y3 ~9 q
the Greek default.
- ^. C# x* W" ]5 c As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:2 ~7 l5 c' D% R$ G) D  o8 B
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
# L6 u! H6 c, ]8 Q9 x. T( o2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
0 a+ o' A* O: a* E5 n; I: R3 G, E) Zdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.1 N, R$ e1 C/ ?+ d. w
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
, M$ N8 M1 D% s1 B5 e% P( cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ ~, n1 J& O: q4 s& R4 E4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.. x" S! W+ M8 \; B( O
6 u+ `, S2 U  d8 U! ?5 j
Beyond Greece8 T0 Z1 g. N1 P2 G7 D3 `, @
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
0 c( j# C+ s- R: L; a) {+ }but that was before Italy.
& t8 e9 H# `) U2 v' f, [0 G* u It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
* \6 m4 k) H$ n3 X It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the5 ]& ~! B& O% B: c
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
7 O5 T' h) T# Q/ [+ u5 Y5 \( C& |# }4 ^
Conclusion
% G; I7 l2 m6 u" N) t2 i: @ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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