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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。( Q( o' n/ C/ b4 U3 p4 r
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Market Commentary
. d& U7 l+ Q, F1 I1 T3 eEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer* }" P1 V! g! p* V
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
, ?# H6 T/ ]. P( J& x1 fSignature Global Advisors+ L% O0 u% c3 u% l: f- Q
) t0 j6 F8 M) `" k, Z8 d# k

" ?* o4 p8 S# G/ [( u1 n1 u, _Background remarks, \: g  T- G, y4 v4 h
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; l  W8 K* V- t6 K
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 C4 w+ Y# L0 B' c1 ?5 _ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
1 C+ k1 L! o) U) V! X! X! f; Qadjustments.# f$ c8 o" D: Q! H7 O- b! ]
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
1 Z4 H9 t) m' M5 z0 |3 Usafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* i" O2 V. O3 L: w Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
2 s0 A( Y# g+ c) v6 i9 A1 J# M5 E. z% Flessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ o5 y& e* h( m$ C/ h+ w We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
) y4 b# G5 T, {  d0 q' L# @adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
. t# g& @; W0 C  s% } Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
  C' W' f+ U7 Y" U# _6 ~quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
4 i5 L& H' k  n Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth., s! t9 f, {1 e
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have, O# ~# ?7 W) r' t) D) l8 Y
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
- c; j4 {5 Q8 O, u3 m$ [9 A9 W2 |+ x The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long0 V0 S- P7 m6 y6 t2 O
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ t6 K# L+ @" @$ qimpose liquidation values.
2 \  N- b! v' C. F& g. J: |) N In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ l3 A6 y4 u) b7 a; X; ^August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 c& H1 S* o& S The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
( C/ p! b3 @6 _7 g. h) sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.- K" V5 T& [/ ]# W; P
$ S' A! t, i* v* v
A look at credit markets
3 a7 P1 ^3 U- C6 K. L/ @$ ` Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: l: k. t: L  Z2 i$ c6 I5 B. `6 s) V
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. K! m! o- @' f7 l. m5 p
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
2 n' C  \3 m5 N, {$ T# Cthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
, s8 |. c" {  M7 C7 |# R: A: j9 mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# H; w! \  L- x7 }7 p
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; Z, z$ q& g& v! L7 ?8 m/ uCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 ~, e' i0 q/ Z5 a4 L
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) p: ?* V# Y- H. M( w
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
" ]/ N  f% c0 h7 |8 ufinding financing.$ u* B& g( b0 C
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
: Q  p9 i/ k" q8 r' I6 ewere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.1 ^3 g0 u3 X; Z' }1 m
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ D4 Z  l7 ^% |  Q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 |2 o" g# t$ h5 vgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" c+ g' \4 a9 F' l9 _9 ^2 ^- l
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: K' C  A6 O$ C9 _1 \
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
2 L0 g8 s$ t7 b5 \. U' Btoday.
0 d+ C. C9 x' X Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# `& ^3 a7 Q3 \0 Q/ F/ bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 ^% S8 Y# ?% V, f7 X! r* j Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for2 K' c' n* X3 ^8 n8 G
the Greek default.
. V$ d: A" y; G( } As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( j3 N( L) U* y' Y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default, I' Z7 ?' Q" f) W
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 E6 N$ U$ ^# ~& ?
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ o/ |0 V+ b3 ]5 S- B& B* ?3 y
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! M9 j9 x( \4 n0 y5 h9 Y8 e: Abanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
1 K- U5 B+ [; D2 v8 f4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: H1 V. m: D0 o0 U" @1 B; [: Z( {

7 A9 L. W- O( l9 f( W& o& j( q2 \+ O; dBeyond Greece0 w( w; i1 H1 W
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),9 |8 G* v0 M9 e4 a3 Y; W& I
but that was before Italy.' p# @2 H" M9 g& W
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ a6 K0 D2 K+ b3 y It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the5 ?/ v+ E# E" q$ }. r, `3 v/ n/ x% l
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion3 @& q# k9 p" V. X1 z$ z
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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