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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。8 _6 ?. Y9 b, Y* ^! t) g

' }9 z8 d4 @% c) G( QMarket Commentary
5 B  H+ O2 u0 ?0 u- \Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer/ p- G, a/ d! n: `9 l
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
. e/ B; }# Y5 v/ N7 mSignature Global Advisors. q& \: J8 _% v: w$ ~
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- o1 K  [+ D8 G, r3 v2 q& W) _3 e
Background remarks
. H' V1 `) A& E2 p, y8 s+ S Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
1 d2 t; d$ y# z. T, T3 D: fas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.1 |# [" Y( D8 B! O) V5 ~
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
! z( s$ L6 ]. f+ ~adjustments.8 {! b2 d# n# @# y- P- V
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( A$ n5 b5 D4 L2 W3 T1 N
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.1 O+ q* ^8 T8 O
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are# j) i0 Z; _* Z1 C' C
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* v( j# D2 m' I* |- `9 O& m+ A We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
% B6 s) T3 P- m6 [! Z/ Cadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
0 T3 m& T& R: X  F- ` Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
# V8 V$ d- S6 n; e9 y" ^quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
) `6 ?+ a. y# j Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
% g% r) ~3 y0 w; z Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( ]) Z* P. J  J8 @- M/ Y+ H) Areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation' W3 M6 H; K* S  H- M! o. K. q% r
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
2 v. e# w5 e0 Z$ Q' y7 o/ `as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
! o4 K" D: p5 z9 i, O" \impose liquidation values.
9 b+ N* h+ B2 ~ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ N7 N% t/ E/ |; EAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( Y6 @1 i0 V( w$ f3 W% x
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
5 r+ K0 W  G5 g# N3 yscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.' S: x5 p, J7 j- {8 f5 R, l! R
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A look at credit markets
5 r2 \; h! w$ B/ |7 T1 b Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 {/ U: ^+ |- S* I  S# S0 t
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.' z% D2 A$ x6 [
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%  B5 M3 p3 T0 l
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
# j2 ^% S: d/ t3 d# x( pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
" M1 U* T" l: d3 T) \6 [- Jaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' Z) Q) w& Y1 d, _$ c8 `CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are% \0 u- u4 f5 @- c8 X( J  g2 O$ P
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.# k& L- F3 X. h
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 c* T4 o/ C. [( |1 Q7 }
finding financing.
$ v4 ~# m: ^; S7 ] Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 [: w3 K- ^6 }8 U% u0 p  Y
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 b7 n. q* @5 T+ ^ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and  G  U+ _/ g5 _+ X' Q3 ]
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 h# _3 J7 `8 M$ E
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 X3 e" `. b% ~& w  Sbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.0 ~7 L: g( e% Y: v  z4 k
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
$ E$ b/ |( `& \$ ~+ Qtoday.
$ e$ r8 c$ J4 _% c5 F Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 l1 G" e+ e% }) j
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 O; B+ {% m8 ]& x4 ^ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
! o' f! Z0 |& {the Greek default.& q6 q: z$ K( p4 g
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:! C8 x4 S2 x) p  k6 ~& `' ~1 r
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
6 N6 j# E1 l4 g6 f4 r2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
1 {9 v) l0 {0 B8 L" c4 J& M/ Gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
) T( r  L$ J# H1 j* s3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing5 C; e! w( w7 X8 I! @
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years# |. \1 F2 G: f$ E
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.- B% e* F& p) E8 ~1 _

) G1 q5 Y( |' W) M% CBeyond Greece# Q+ ~! K; ~% g4 e$ r" X  k1 l
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  B6 z7 w! u- i, i- r7 ~
but that was before Italy.
8 m1 ~2 F6 m) K" P/ v; G! g4 _ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- V& ]  E* F$ ]: A& ~
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the# T; [. j( [) f4 ?8 P- z
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further., `# S0 y3 @' L+ R. M
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Conclusion! S& ^. ]1 q- E5 j) m
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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