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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。3 \  K& c$ `: X  G. L

  c1 B4 x- h3 X; J9 C: M) lMarket Commentary
% t$ H1 d' I  ]- Q5 ]5 iEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer- m- F# @: c) o! P( U. u9 m
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
/ Q+ U) C% w7 ^% f3 J- ]Signature Global Advisors$ I# u! K& r7 [

! t+ b! F% d1 T! c% x
! Q1 H9 ]* B$ q4 `2 a& I5 C. g- Z% xBackground remarks  U4 W0 i2 N& z4 H0 B) M
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are" p7 v2 W' g' w2 K5 X
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) ~5 h: }% T) \0 c Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal' z" F7 `- n* y' \
adjustments.
5 e4 R- N: x& f1 l# g This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social: `0 F6 N( ?: Y6 x
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.# o9 r; y; h; r. `5 n$ \+ i) Q
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 l9 `" t4 U! D& I5 x
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.# a  r, W1 O$ ~# R! b# y
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ K) s$ W. }+ l6 R1 o9 Madjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
( Y2 W5 L7 P1 H- i1 s Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ I. f% W, M4 }  |quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
( R& f4 b# Q5 r  ~; w Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.. t" b: A7 R4 K; s
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have, H# D! S4 q2 ?- U8 I
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
5 R* ?( C0 N7 j6 ~& Q& s The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ x2 m0 T1 N6 L( p9 E& `as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 D& B' Q+ V  U' f$ h5 b5 j% Y* V) F
impose liquidation values.
: g3 V: Y6 y4 f: {% @ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 E7 F1 P& ^$ o. d# UAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.! k6 S/ j! x- @2 X) L
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension, B8 w- `  g% q& k7 [: B( h
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 f9 r# R2 O$ `1 G* H

- x: ^0 B! U4 @% }; U  bA look at credit markets. V% y* g/ ~! q8 o
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in" R. e" M. u) f1 u4 G
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( \% |1 F. r) J. P/ x( }, ? High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%- L/ y8 V; \9 a# ?7 Q% W
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1  {; I! J4 ^6 ^) ]" s. b: d% n
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
5 l7 `* G4 w! Q5 T7 daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. j' T3 f7 O9 {& ^3 ^CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are1 d- F; x8 e9 Y- k/ \* ~) z8 k/ c
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
" M3 T0 t) a6 s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 o9 e) W3 a, M4 [9 ^  t9 _
finding financing.9 Y: Z. B1 ^$ B; f
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! d% W% u# m' b* e+ nwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals./ ?, r) q' U1 y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and% S1 n; f: a+ y: e5 O
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were' T9 J7 U9 l4 ~5 B: p" C: T+ o
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' n: V8 Q6 ~8 _- A; ^( P: ?1 [  D
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.8 P4 _1 |$ ?' |2 V! ?; k4 Z
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) K# B8 L( H: Z3 v* h' O+ c
today.
3 m6 p1 J8 p" C8 r* u Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in7 `( \  Y$ m% h! l, m
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda( x6 d- H& I& u8 D
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for# q, ~6 l' `( ?
the Greek default.
% l7 e3 l8 g) s( ~, C9 d+ S) B) M As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:: v) M6 I/ m+ w6 i* A7 x/ C7 O
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
  @' @4 n1 K( I# H! X2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
) M3 D. V9 w0 D8 Z, K' u: zdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.! G7 R1 l4 F) X
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
) N4 D; P. L* _  N, lbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
8 l3 K6 F* H# S6 c) j, l7 u4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
6 m$ V  P# @  P1 H# S7 P3 z% N; f0 [2 @) R; C
Beyond Greece
( L0 Y% s0 s0 ]. h' D The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
' p& G8 C! q7 N! }+ Pbut that was before Italy.0 E6 s1 N5 w2 \( y- h
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
/ X+ {2 r0 E; E, q It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
7 t5 r+ R' i* {' {Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
% F5 e# c1 r1 f  E# ?( O3 [# ]+ l1 L9 q( s
Conclusion+ ^% p: ]( B9 v
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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