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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
/ ~1 F' \/ n, n; D+ y( H. f# kEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, |1 ^1 U2 Q  ~( r
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager, E* T+ N: u/ o4 J
Signature Global Advisors. J2 V0 i8 o3 e$ D

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1 u; r4 u! s- y  i( ]7 NBackground remarks5 P% K# C+ J( B" U7 E# U
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are& Q& X/ X  F. m9 w+ a" U- _) s
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
7 d! U: b. @$ s& G1 c$ B7 o% H Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal; N1 c( n  a5 y+ I/ H- |" [  a
adjustments.* I7 G& @7 o8 z. [" Z
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
) U$ W  H3 R+ ?5 L3 C# U* d% ?4 j% Ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.. [- B/ f5 L5 Q
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are, O$ i- r2 N& N5 i
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.$ w# O5 X; f7 t3 y- a
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 G( z* |5 x; P
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
! D' t, a) c3 Q, c6 i Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s' j0 [& ^6 h9 x9 o% l" t7 R( r4 `
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
1 w) W0 T6 b4 a( K" @* F4 r  ~" S Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
5 ^8 t% B4 N! t Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
. B* l0 c. C7 T* a4 Y4 j0 qreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
5 a2 \  y; N6 d& E" p0 q8 l+ ?9 M The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long& [2 b! ~& a! c) A6 ~
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
$ N( }) ]7 V' p" C4 f( R) i- eimpose liquidation values.
0 J8 c* m- z' W! g, ?. A6 ~ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ E; }' l- x% p
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* N! @9 L) H* f& X( }: _/ [
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension5 x- _5 U* V6 B  r
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.& H# J) k" C2 }* v" j) p

3 B4 {3 `3 b0 [, e2 q1 ]# o0 ^* oA look at credit markets
( f( |3 w6 [8 l2 V Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 ^, S# M! b- T8 m5 tSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
: r! E9 f2 L& D* ?$ N4 i High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" U. F" g- K+ [% r3 F5 B1 Athen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% a$ Q3 b! G& N- c7 H( j6 ]* e" dbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
  }7 ~" H( T5 Faccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade6 G9 H& _7 r3 c4 `% `
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 \& Y8 u/ I9 `: T0 `positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 W$ r; i$ q$ n) o& i
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 G; I3 n, j  bfinding financing.7 b- W- D3 Y/ B( p0 P
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
" w7 c9 f& r! |/ p+ `- h, O/ dwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
8 d& z6 ]% w% C2 ? Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
" n, F. I! K- ?7 t. ais now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
6 _; {3 }& |8 t9 U- Mgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for0 ^) X( R, N. P( y
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.! A& _2 _: H. V5 U
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% w) ]6 ~8 c6 f5 k9 I9 Q
today.
- q& @1 q) Q) U. g5 ~# Q! r3 } Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 G  N0 z( Z0 K# g" wemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
% ~% {8 k7 w! E/ l" R: n Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for& C9 [, ?7 q8 B) `2 _, ^
the Greek default.
+ o8 h, h- h  ?( g  {3 R- K As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
, Y+ q0 _; ]7 t2 Z% r% n1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. t2 [* h6 K2 P+ D3 F
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
8 Z- b6 T. u0 W5 X/ q9 `debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
4 W( y; N- K3 C3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
" t. G* i; [# t! f( V  Kbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
% R  Y; x, M2 A. I! _4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: Y- c# N4 V# l4 ~! l6 W
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Beyond Greece% O# \% R: e0 H! N
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. r; h' f: \1 X5 J$ {$ q6 s2 \8 Bbut that was before Italy.
2 W1 [# q) D4 }& W7 p2 V It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 _1 v" }+ m; J7 q It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the4 L/ [" ]3 \5 N4 V4 @5 A( H0 N
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion3 r! f& [1 R4 M$ m0 i
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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