 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation0 U1 }- S' q6 S0 F* f7 @
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 A g) f& ^! T+ gas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 y: P4 e1 [/ p' L
impose liquidation values.
- o& N. w% @5 ~2 s1 M In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, B* U/ B2 d `- k7 g+ sAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." C0 ^4 I# e. k" [$ y3 C
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 ^% g* s" R; R7 X/ ]scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ U8 W; p9 E7 U5 {
0 w% I7 `" [. Y" s, \A look at credit markets
: Z3 {9 d: L) H+ E% J Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, A6 w4 b5 H% U5 _
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 [& i* R& W& O `+ \ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
: ~, _. Z8 S+ t9 Pthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
1 h" E+ y8 s& M1 z% Kbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 ~6 I5 g' Z$ f; i6 f6 H+ ~* c
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
7 o! a: U/ u- l) K2 G/ w4 o: C) RCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 k3 ]- r: r- r4 @' t& `- e1 c
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: p! i4 A! K; Q7 m& H3 a Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 h3 v0 _' J4 H0 v8 E) O
finding financing.
- I9 q4 R! G/ X( v6 W; x Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they' g8 P0 m% p+ h# X
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; [2 c7 K9 j6 a3 F6 z0 T Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and' M* ?) S- {( r6 `
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 a( \; _: R6 r3 A; r) Y0 S4 Dgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 ]2 C0 X' {% u% ^1 j7 Mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& G0 I2 T+ L E1 q5 Q- x+ O European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain) O" P3 t9 j" u
today.
5 o+ D, v+ s$ [* V Q Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in/ i1 o8 U8 q0 G" o7 |9 P P
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|