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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。6 `5 [2 g+ o7 f2 U6 M6 T! Q/ ^
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Market Commentary- V8 V2 r7 B/ @/ M9 F0 Q" [
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% Z2 l! N# i6 D9 }! @# Q' OJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% h0 w$ I- o% K$ gSignature Global Advisors
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2 V7 P& a7 c4 N7 y3 I' u
- {: {/ A" Y! {Background remarks1 N" n) g3 L2 l% A
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, q" t. k! m0 X% F' C" [/ O, N0 a0 x
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.9 D& U. @9 W4 w% V" J! l& B+ e
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
0 B. o) O5 L) Jadjustments.+ d& l& h* U; S" I! E1 S  F
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social4 }  T7 Q% y' @
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ P) U. ]: D! E; ] Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
# O1 }5 ]- w4 ~6 g& m9 F/ {# p' qlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" f5 `, C5 a+ T/ {( U! e1 k+ G We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 Y# F# W9 L3 n- ^adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: Q3 _$ Q+ k& r4 O Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
  V7 i) ~! C/ P9 W6 t' }( _quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. }. E- \: U8 t7 O; J1 R
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.# N9 z( d7 C3 ]- N) W8 R$ X
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have4 V6 |( B  i* Y: {! L
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation# ]. y: ~8 m7 e3 S& h
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# Y" l. w7 d) e
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may+ W. `+ P' n$ j3 L
impose liquidation values.! p, G8 z+ [3 T/ ~1 `: B  Y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 |1 u! D4 C0 d0 d. b, t
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
' U+ h# L! `/ K+ \6 P$ b2 B$ b The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
3 D2 Y: o( _; a8 ^) C& Xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.6 f9 k% j. s; Y
& Z- v) M2 J7 X  f8 {4 s
A look at credit markets
8 h3 W, s- b& O& ]' K7 o Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 W( C2 k* S1 Y+ a7 L8 ]September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& t$ h( p/ l1 a5 O. Z- z/ H3 ~( ` High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
, S# d; L' O7 c- D- _- I1 ^2 nthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1& }, r# m; v; ~
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
3 d) e$ t$ q* d* W" ?# vaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
. [, [' h. {3 hCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
; e! H* J' B' G, b) i& Cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
( U# n9 Z+ x* }4 V; O3 O2 I Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 i1 R. x5 `5 A. [finding financing.5 g, U% `: U( H, _
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ X. d# v) C. H4 f/ J3 n; }/ V8 _8 Q6 m
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ `6 J* H  e" {' q. T Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 j$ ]; Q$ v- G/ q$ r, c
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
2 Q" }  p6 N. X, `going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
0 v6 v- w, B3 l* I4 C$ V) e' Bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 _" V; O% y* t2 q' R4 l European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& B+ L  f- _0 L7 r/ U8 qtoday.
+ m7 n/ w& `' C* D& |5 N Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 ~! k8 I5 \! k. |emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
: Z- B( f9 D+ r' Q2 q Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for9 D( p, `: R# u) g
the Greek default.. a' p/ v& u0 _
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:8 p' a5 D2 N8 M
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default1 k; Q7 O- X' K
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign/ ^2 x7 q) q& M2 ^' f+ \
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.% ^- ]/ Y; M$ ^2 ~' A
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing" p' c: V$ c) r, E. R9 y5 R
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years9 x. a7 Y3 O/ a/ X" @  ^% m8 M! n
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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+ W7 @6 f% e& l7 F8 H* V! OBeyond Greece
- Z2 S( t; q5 ~% E The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
& I$ F+ D6 e0 l  pbut that was before Italy.; k+ `: f$ S$ ^9 u& F
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 N! B# r5 t. k* Y6 O+ A7 N It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# q, `& f9 I" Q) \! lItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
" h; u3 D+ x" v9 _ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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