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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。1 C  C$ i  M$ g, }3 S( ^

. r1 e0 M) `. F' O/ I: xMarket Commentary
. q- J' ?9 }/ v% ^% ?Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 y3 V) ?; g7 F2 u+ y* G
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager9 O' q. C# U* Q* I. |9 ]
Signature Global Advisors! i" [' l( x% Q5 a; ^+ q; f7 h" f

- T0 {$ ], N( i' B' R& p. x' C
- g2 c# F! Y. c3 l/ r6 R& KBackground remarks
: _  ]; R) u4 l9 S' ^ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
/ Y$ }( O4 o8 s2 s* ras much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, O) r  U1 d# L9 z% h) n Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
5 j% h9 }% w1 I1 W( W0 e8 hadjustments.
. [% |4 j7 V2 }+ Z: a This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social( ]8 o+ S6 \& g" H0 W% `! b4 j
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.) S6 G, _  f1 y9 B) f
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are8 c* i% {$ G. N6 }
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: c6 R4 k$ a. w$ r6 b$ y7 i* b3 ?( M We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
& r  x* q" [, v/ s) Y* p. }3 [adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
5 N9 @- w* j# e7 ] Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 J/ B( N9 A' Q. j7 i9 l
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 B5 m4 {  `. u; R9 D Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.! ^1 u: [/ o& u* |% }+ F8 z" @4 r' Q
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have# @* V8 o1 @/ K9 G/ r0 Z
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation. {  {& i! y5 c2 A5 L! v8 u, N5 S
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
2 o! E# \) q/ y/ A, P; m. b: V9 Sas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, j7 N$ y+ ]; g. [! Mimpose liquidation values.
1 l# @3 E/ @; K7 f( m In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In- s3 B6 c! a9 E# C: o# S  W
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 Y% j; a  R6 [9 C, P/ ]& y5 n The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; C% D/ U4 v" _2 a* V  ]
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
6 o: W& W7 K$ J$ h
1 Z: l3 d8 h% J7 sA look at credit markets
6 b* I6 Q: y, j3 G$ h# Z6 Q Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% B6 C, W" I' P0 `9 {
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.' I1 \/ l; m1 S
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ S- v' }( x" Q% l9 d  tthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1! v: _$ e/ A8 Q4 Z$ S/ B1 w
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have$ `7 t8 X; P2 N0 O& U
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
% {' A' ~. I4 I$ r* c4 O! c8 nCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 z8 a0 C" H) y) Qpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  g! n; Q; o% y+ o! z1 Y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' g% ]1 T; K0 v) m
finding financing.
5 B0 e! O+ a& G1 ~8 f  u, W Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
8 ]% B2 h# o8 h8 g: jwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.  l* d) }- h  ~. m2 p3 n( d* m8 v& E
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and; K( P* q% C. z, P: P
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 p0 l, F6 X7 [  agoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. n5 m4 P3 m8 R% y' g1 ^+ o4 ]2 F
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.- b! g0 v5 Z. m
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
; v6 [0 K3 K3 y+ Y6 i  Ctoday.
" \: r" K* V& F7 ^/ B Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 O$ s: P" V7 m  A. K" T4 S* @emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda, \4 W% ~. Z# m/ {: f
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
. T9 o4 `. J- d, ^7 K5 Q. Dthe Greek default.# E# F2 }. k; _1 [; ]% N0 U
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:$ P) T4 k% D0 A
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. Y$ k" U: f$ I2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ R( \" R) E- k7 Hdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
9 t9 v2 X' K- ~& V8 U( q3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing7 n" M6 m+ N4 g- w/ T
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years: n$ s6 n/ @/ C9 j' |9 O+ ]5 p
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.! U5 O) `1 V! I4 [2 q& L

' K5 V$ v3 X" Z9 W9 ?3 cBeyond Greece: N( n! R# l1 j# Z' x* o
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
& {. h4 H, h1 \' y- P; B" ]but that was before Italy.
# L; n% r$ J% Z/ N/ R It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
, S; ]) A  W" T It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
( G6 Q6 r: u& U/ i6 mItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
3 X  i. D7 Z# [0 F4 B5 N& B
; x+ p* M+ B3 r! FConclusion
$ a2 g# e# L) _6 [ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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