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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。* g& J1 ~- i  Z7 J$ G- @* t

6 C4 A5 s: k  Z- M3 o  fMarket Commentary* I- {2 N: e- D" w5 G( l: O& ~
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer2 L7 H; T3 M$ Q/ j5 D
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager' _- M$ D/ L; G6 q7 c$ M+ Y1 l
Signature Global Advisors: Z  B* P* X$ r" |2 |  E5 M
8 i- k( T: b1 [" `1 ]! L

2 N9 r2 ~  u, Q, ]) Y7 CBackground remarks7 p/ t9 S5 z$ f: u4 _) t
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are# L: G0 Z7 _# q$ k, G, x
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., p  W$ H1 {" c1 X% H' h6 {
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal5 ~/ M5 G8 r" g  k
adjustments.  s# M& t- z8 s$ g* y
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social0 L7 M- N# N6 J4 {, C8 A4 }$ j
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
- z( V4 Y3 L/ j8 l4 ~0 N Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
" @/ ?0 l6 y& C% ]' z/ }% \lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
% y. ]8 V5 b  v  f We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" D' }2 w) f" d+ y' y5 \8 Fadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
6 I: v9 C4 F4 }! f Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s: Q3 `4 J: q" H, D3 X' m
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.4 B2 ]0 U" p, B$ ]# J! B5 y
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.! @; }% k0 i/ `  P( R1 z6 y
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
# i; V* ]! B! {7 Qreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
! ^7 v* {. g6 d1 E" C The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* K/ Q2 W0 m# o# z9 L# Xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% ^* D5 y6 H  H* B& A) U0 o0 Y
impose liquidation values.
/ T0 K& V0 K- X0 y- p4 d2 T In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; x: ~8 }5 N5 V, D% r6 [August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ W2 X$ j% H1 F/ K
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) l7 N% L8 f, C: y( d. p4 @
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
5 }. T$ `$ ~5 W8 G+ P' f% X- ~  V5 ^9 N. @, R3 h; t, n
A look at credit markets! d( x4 v) A5 R. K6 O+ I6 S' Z! B* \
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in& W' L: g9 O7 A6 v; ^/ v
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ Q4 i( o& @) @8 f% Q1 N High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 p6 E- I& v$ M" }! o. I" W
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. l) J- ~4 d/ d8 q
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" O: s6 x2 n: L' C! d$ x: u
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade6 J' X4 L$ M6 N. l: U+ }
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are- z0 k' I9 n( ^0 W0 e
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
! F0 n* |, v5 ]* z" e+ @% z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 a; G9 g" C/ Y6 `) j
finding financing.
1 I- R3 I3 k3 J1 H, `% o3 I Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they7 S; ~7 s  O6 k$ [6 u# o/ U9 E
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.. p. v8 t) N' O/ G5 P9 D  H
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 Q! Q+ Z- g6 ]9 C, {is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were  w: e# g, R- M# |5 u7 n/ A8 r
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
& f1 v$ D* q$ {+ p" Hbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 W& q1 t) W  }% e1 B
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain% O) p. A: |. S1 ]  @7 ~+ e
today.! u$ l6 o2 b. u# L
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in2 D, S! L. v) [% H3 c/ X
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda; g2 @% ~% ^9 e9 O9 N
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for9 a4 A/ }( R% H3 c' P
the Greek default.
& M$ f- ?7 P( y( Z  B6 _ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
; b8 F$ r7 X* Z$ F1 _3 \1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
& c7 v. Z# z7 g2 |2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  p5 ?% V4 W( h7 b0 [% j- w( G
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
, F# |; V* I5 z" |5 e4 Y1 h- {3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
* R- V" P4 c2 ?  K7 R* ]2 nbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years; F$ w( t  O5 u2 w7 g, e8 z: S
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.; y5 h% }7 r3 v6 |, a( W2 O! [
6 `1 C$ S4 ~7 M  S! q. X/ k
Beyond Greece1 B5 w0 e8 m4 m  D; G% @
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),+ Y& d$ y8 ^1 S1 D$ U6 h
but that was before Italy.
& i! F; W" K% `' g0 h* g It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
7 W* m; P9 s( J# ? It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
7 m% w7 x, _- }8 TItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion2 A( l$ U' @7 J7 z; A% F) b
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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