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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
' z; R7 x7 {! L6 q8 h0 x0 [1 K4 p/ B1 `; \1 e6 P) O# {& F. \
Market Commentary; v$ E# y( T9 l% g
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer" @' }( z# j9 H7 J0 Y0 V) f0 E
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
6 F- B, ?, t" O2 K1 j( wSignature Global Advisors& S) }7 R3 o4 V! r0 s
3 B: L' F( p+ \, O4 v& r. b9 R7 N

7 V8 t& i$ E; {3 ^4 N4 b& c2 f/ fBackground remarks6 p  z7 v8 _; S/ X9 ?
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are3 y$ L, @2 F/ z- K4 K) ?
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
0 p  A: ^" l$ M; C Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
  b/ G4 {2 L* ~' z# F( badjustments.
/ M/ s8 o9 x  q/ |. z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social  [8 i0 U7 U# e. `+ q$ \6 p
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
( C# Z# q! B+ _ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
' q3 J8 t& b. M! tlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: m8 t( j' A! `; A3 G9 _ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these' W9 F/ Z- D7 `  L" V8 H
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
$ r" d5 r. p, K1 J9 z9 Q% o7 l Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
$ Z! O) F: f& b! N, Tquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
, _2 M$ f# j5 Z( w Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ Y# O) C* g- h* k Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
$ q9 M: y* h6 \6 G0 @8 p' yreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
& n/ [+ L  Z  F7 r7 @: ]" T* H The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long9 q) x$ X7 }* L  x% K% S
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may7 U" p0 }8 A0 D- ^& x
impose liquidation values.
1 |- q+ ?' S# ? In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In3 K! W% f1 U- F! f/ g
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.4 O6 u8 r- ~+ K9 D) x; [
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension' C9 m# v: A0 l# T7 S
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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$ O3 ]$ b2 f) T$ QA look at credit markets
5 Z1 u" V7 w, v$ e& I1 K Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in7 c5 {4 o4 G0 J/ x
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 P6 ]4 a* z0 ~; \; a High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 }) C! L' x4 w1 r
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1( K6 D$ k+ M3 H4 \; r9 Z; X9 W
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have- `( Z. P7 t" U% T9 s
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade! z6 U# g3 g+ |7 |
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are8 {  ]0 S3 V5 t3 k3 U2 m
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 ?8 Q: p/ p& M1 A) Z0 i Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
, k* G. V$ C2 \  K6 n. afinding financing.
* z- n9 h6 {; C" V& ?% m Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; z9 e4 H! q7 e; cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 |/ h/ M  `) b7 v5 u# @7 f Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and8 {+ E1 C) w2 i8 Y* L, Z
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ \; {- D8 i0 T* x( E7 h  D8 \
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
3 r0 C$ p2 w, i% O" R! @# Hbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) ^2 B9 I/ U% d( C2 K/ `. i* ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 ?- R! V1 [! S4 u: Z
today.
  M, W8 W; z/ j6 r  C4 `7 W4 Y) g7 L# W Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. l; g7 }/ j: N% a& H" D& @emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ v" B2 w' G. D' k6 h* | Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
% Q% g9 B9 z% N  Q8 jthe Greek default.% O$ }9 G6 j7 O7 m" t2 R
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
) }5 @6 V5 l0 G7 {7 E1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default  m. y! K7 L0 V0 j
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
) b+ Y4 M" x9 g/ t* E0 k4 rdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
" V) x3 n; x. i' {0 L& ?& `, X3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing6 c# g2 f- K7 h+ h/ Q
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
+ D1 ^& l0 h; |4 r$ d, e4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.' k- }3 I# c6 X7 g# D( J

2 N$ G9 c4 k- MBeyond Greece
! W9 Q* Q! X! l: P$ _5 i The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: [  I' N9 B4 R7 P9 Hbut that was before Italy.
/ p1 I) L( u. s, D( k0 K2 z It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.) p  q1 J4 D% j9 a( ]$ r% H: @! _
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the/ s' a6 r; n4 C; E3 B% Q
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.# @+ w- K& j2 L0 `6 D$ {4 }: d

6 d) G) l; B2 ?- F) c/ OConclusion
# \* j" O* f4 J, {6 A# } We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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