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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。2 L! n8 f/ Q4 K1 g3 a

2 c) @' [' o( T  g; v$ CMarket Commentary$ o/ c7 h8 h9 |5 E" a3 [
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, @7 r/ v2 N0 h2 W: s) [1 t8 e9 VJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager8 B$ ^1 J# z5 i8 P) n! f* k
Signature Global Advisors! ?( e. q& Q6 Y
" K' V5 }$ y4 f1 m% o/ w$ g
9 Q# J9 `) h& f
Background remarks4 b8 I' }9 T+ ?( G0 l
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- w# K4 d  K' ^$ j: Q2 G2 Z- ]0 m( ?
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
- ~. z3 N1 U% `) K& }! V Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal5 \# {0 \. o5 V: r* w+ `5 `
adjustments.* T0 O8 `  X0 x' k  Q- y
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social' l/ Q8 |% y6 j1 R4 E# O1 F' ~
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded., }# E' T, \1 y- z8 r% |: B5 Y
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 a# s! |0 T9 q0 {/ ^) m) \
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) l$ D' h$ [2 n' r4 h We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these+ r3 M$ d) V& g4 r5 d7 t
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
' C7 e3 w6 x& y8 i0 X Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
! R% k8 }- I9 Xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.6 B* p" N0 u: g7 ^) x3 X! \
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
6 L# B  k; ^) u3 D" I0 ? Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
) I% H, L; `1 B3 breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ f$ e" d! D2 {8 X9 m4 l The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& r1 C2 o8 u  x" t& _' ^as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' S1 b* L/ ]; A" ^: K$ D
impose liquidation values.; n7 ]# z& j( T  S" @: o" s
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 ^" Z0 I! U9 A9 V( JAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
+ d; `0 t; c' Q  A$ _ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 `( w5 Y/ a6 x$ o: U: A# I
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
; {; m5 j3 Z' g( B- ~. B+ H1 [. M( {2 {" l! _: F
A look at credit markets9 F3 x! w4 U9 ^) X0 b! L
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& t: L$ Y& e% g$ _, U& ^$ GSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.3 g! M9 r' K: e, r
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) }; d. Q( y9 r: l6 v  C% ]* R
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. @7 O$ d  ?  @- R! Vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' z8 ~  h& J$ [; a3 Iaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. ]- }7 z0 D1 c
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 m, T# V* N! p+ ?4 Rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- B6 v! m7 l0 l( ~% A; V; z8 b& {0 Z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble# A8 N* J* S- p
finding financing.) \% n( O- i( o: R5 ^
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
4 l9 Q# D, x3 u0 }were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
! \% K3 D9 `/ W Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 t; O7 A" f2 Y- r1 @
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were) A' \3 v. l1 l" h: S
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( Q. p4 S' w9 e6 M8 S  ?5 B  k5 abankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
' K7 B: M- N; W5 _% N& Z% | European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
$ ]2 j% _" y& M1 U: Xtoday.
2 j6 b+ }9 a' t$ g$ z9 U6 W0 ]5 N9 w7 z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in# \- }2 m. p9 s" a# e3 {
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" R7 a" v9 b, m6 C4 u, \ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ d) g+ `& y0 ?& Rthe Greek default.4 _. ~- X' W$ y
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:. n5 [% g( g2 u
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
( Y! s/ ]3 |# B6 {& U2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. J4 E, M# C# o% gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.. O$ T: S, K8 F# c) O+ T* E3 P2 b" m
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing' y1 ?& t) Q1 n. k* d/ I
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
; W% Z8 x1 I0 b9 p9 d& _/ G/ |4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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2 X# K3 r6 l8 n7 S. N9 O  |! u: xBeyond Greece
8 z, m! h9 T3 Z& i- z, e The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),* m- O0 G( f* e4 ^) J4 h
but that was before Italy.
- D* v" q3 G1 Z% K It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.: j# O0 C$ {5 G
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the7 q, u9 z" @' R* U
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further., P  P9 P7 q, a% @" O
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Conclusion, ?( ~; |5 V  J2 g# c1 f* w
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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