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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。( A! S& y$ D  Y! g, E
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Market Commentary' @5 w( D  P: g: Q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer0 w; w  n8 m1 M
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager" X4 A9 b, K" t5 G1 t
Signature Global Advisors; g* v2 C2 v0 k6 Y" s$ i

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1 j) N, A+ |/ n& R2 b, W: uBackground remarks
/ E5 t- ?, n3 v5 p Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
$ F/ a: p0 y. ?3 O1 Cas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
  D% c; y8 N3 F2 E Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal7 A. M) Y! E' ^: ^/ A2 h, X- M
adjustments.
% S. z; o% W7 E0 s& ~9 f This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
4 C5 e" |6 A1 v4 v4 |safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
- n1 Q, R! l6 a. W8 ]7 K Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
- e0 E, p0 o, {# I* X% y# |4 V( ylessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: y0 ^1 z5 S) n  N
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these" N% e6 ~& V% |. M- ?! s
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.$ C) p  e) X, [
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
4 r; f, l" c: _# H. M* D$ mquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.! D: u1 l0 N0 h' n; K( \" v3 S
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth./ H' f2 ]+ v: l
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
: N9 I/ p7 E" sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
7 ^; Q. ]1 F# z3 L1 M% H& V The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, S, {' g( ~: v: F! q* X
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may: Q/ z# P4 w, _! n
impose liquidation values.
0 u6 y  _2 |" T; ?  W/ _- E In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: j* d) a. G" ^9 S7 T( JAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.: G9 |/ ?* n7 Z! f3 U0 H
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 q, P- b3 Q7 ], v6 c0 I
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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% e% U5 S' ^6 ~( HA look at credit markets
/ x* Z+ |5 n( ]1 p Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% X0 G" f0 G! b% \2 w, `0 Z
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 t& `( Z7 |' }) D  z
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%; x8 A$ t9 P5 {8 g6 u4 u- V# o
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) A: k5 u9 m! b+ A: E/ s2 V! Vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 m' C: W) [5 o0 R8 l+ D! y, Daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
: k' b* _& V) ]5 ]CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 a3 D% a# |5 _" U* q- p1 N% o# Cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  T" g( z7 ?# V
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ w5 I: H9 Q* m* }6 Zfinding financing.& K/ k; f$ A2 q1 B6 H0 k
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 f7 I/ R) y. t
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 H  G$ K9 C* S2 U. j, ]8 |/ k
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ y6 ?# Z6 {& o4 @7 S. His now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" ?8 u4 B0 r% a! O- D, Y" ?
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 r$ P& i' \3 m) Fbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 p0 P) }/ J) n
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain  H, Q& ?8 `& y% o
today.  X/ s) ~3 D4 x- Y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in! H& t9 U0 F1 ?( L2 g$ \6 P  x0 l
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda7 {" Y! Z/ _' X% a9 X
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for5 S3 h. Y$ q# Q8 ~
the Greek default.. s8 R: q) z5 e* {6 ^
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
2 R% K" e3 @/ I5 g/ o; H* {) J1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2 J- \( b1 G; Q" S- w: I0 E2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign! _$ J% C9 Y9 D4 v2 S
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
! Q! L8 d: ?7 i0 X) z8 n% j3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! y. z1 d3 L+ Gbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years! F* ?& D, H* x0 W4 a% @2 Z: {  U
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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' \; l- Q1 ~% m0 [Beyond Greece
! m8 N0 t% N2 g7 J  B2 A- G8 O The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),: k$ n/ r0 G5 U' F1 {0 r
but that was before Italy.
) {" K/ @$ Y8 v! m' D3 C It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! Z& Z1 m/ l% P; A It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
* f; F5 l2 P" F: w# s( zItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion1 R/ x5 f- E1 c/ s
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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