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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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. k/ d$ E" B( G- R# O. pMarket Commentary# [/ v: ~2 \5 ~- g8 n: ~
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
" I1 S: H2 ?+ Q2 tJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% i- B. n6 c: b' W5 vSignature Global Advisors8 r. _7 F, g* X3 ?

3 T+ V. k. V7 U* H
1 L, Z, A" \& h4 z4 t) q, tBackground remarks. o- x1 O( [; O, d' q( `! y
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are* `' a! X' [0 Z% Z: R  x! S
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, R. A7 X$ W7 ?6 \( E; j, s! j Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal7 F; _: f9 q, ~* `# f, R4 M; n
adjustments.
& @; E# `2 u6 B* }$ u$ D4 v* e This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
' _8 o3 G- E3 Vsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
8 v  |+ N3 A7 ^; p: F& F" P9 h" A Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
$ T) ]; c5 K5 U. {1 Hlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
  S. n& Z1 J3 j  I+ ^! ? We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, P! @9 u& a7 L$ Kadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% \# X2 w; \. y& F# { Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" h% V. p$ b6 V
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 i9 z( j5 Z  ?% D7 n  r7 n Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.# K7 ^7 W$ q5 p8 N
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have- _2 w/ J1 i3 V
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
  T8 C3 v" O# L1 X9 t& ~ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 t4 Z) y4 Z5 l: e* O" {$ i2 \
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
! p0 Z% ~8 s- H* uimpose liquidation values.8 p1 T) ?) i+ f. P: A% r
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In2 T; g. U$ e- X
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. y: B" \# `5 f# W7 m- P
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 m; m( E% [7 P" kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
. t8 K0 G3 g- k0 r5 s8 i$ i$ D% b) ]3 k; z
A look at credit markets( @- ^# k; G, i! U+ p+ a8 J
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in5 \3 }0 K: U  ]' Z2 G+ K% s) R- q
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
8 J0 ]: y3 F/ J8 E4 P High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%& q, @! u4 c; \, W
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; r, z# E1 `  ]  E; j+ c$ o' T
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 k+ V& v) y5 D3 {1 u: \6 R, T
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade" z) b. z( f- x$ d7 [+ {* K
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
% U6 W( Y& s) R. z* O6 G0 q6 k2 xpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.- e$ J1 a) M3 J1 I
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( a. q$ c' F2 m' d( |finding financing.# H( F  @* {# ~6 Z3 u
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 U' W, S( j& t8 O
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% ], Z/ E" r" v! @ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and5 {( {3 p4 m/ P( w; X' x; c6 T
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
+ v# }) \" Y& v: s: k$ t: I1 Qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
& n# ~& v! O7 H- Abankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& Z0 q+ v7 ?1 s* o; ` European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
1 ]( E# h$ E" q% _today.! o' w7 u. C, h8 Z0 q2 q0 _
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 Z/ l5 ~8 I9 U- }) t# w( A% Xemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda$ j" m/ J7 b+ R- q3 m; u
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* r8 v" f! _$ \# C& ~7 Q* C
the Greek default.( ~" E+ }) L( g! I* N: t: d
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:6 c5 A4 X+ f5 W: @$ G% N
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ f$ N% L; ?6 q! ?2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign* F% t. }9 W1 o1 C6 Y
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.4 M" D* ?+ j$ \6 L" r  m& h; y$ D
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
" X, X9 g( M- H/ I* {& Ybanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years' b4 g) y3 ^( P- r
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.( x7 y5 b* m& \: r6 ?9 X! O9 o, i
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Beyond Greece; x! c. u% g$ o3 ^- o, x- y- Z
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
, W7 z  X! }" F! A( Zbut that was before Italy.6 ~$ ^; \# O! `: n. V
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; C0 b4 Z3 Q2 v( _3 ]3 J2 _ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the3 i, M; u( A3 N4 ?3 P' Y
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion  g( G/ [$ M: U' g4 w; u2 l
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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