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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary7 m( b7 @/ u6 o" U: q5 y
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
/ @3 d- m( |" q! n) O2 \; r9 J( YJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager& q  a: Y" E8 T# y& t- I
Signature Global Advisors
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  O4 X5 a2 Z2 f& K7 H
, m2 z  c0 N# \" A0 \% b) lBackground remarks( b7 _; }$ ^, r: [1 x2 M  v8 r2 p
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ \6 C4 ]! X7 C! }
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.5 O8 u; o5 c4 X9 o- g) @
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal' M, c8 `2 X9 o) H" c+ x0 e$ o
adjustments.
) J8 Q; D# v) K  F) f( @4 |; V This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social* J7 K4 c' b4 A. S0 A
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded., i& ^) w) Q0 R4 h% m
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) Y. j( R8 [! o& W9 ~6 C
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.. k4 m9 A! I9 X5 J
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ D7 J1 e4 }# s; s: T) t  ]  ~6 Y. S1 {adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
  {: l  Z) k+ e- W Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
- x/ f( _; P$ q+ F- I9 dquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: F( V+ C6 D' S7 f; ^2 T Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.% z3 T6 C4 s2 u7 g5 Y3 h
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have4 n7 H2 g6 a0 g4 C! L! X" F9 w
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation7 D6 ]" V7 N3 ?4 c
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long7 ~1 m. v% n( k: K; M  c
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( |$ M# D+ |1 @& I  \; t. ]. k
impose liquidation values.& L% g& |1 H) p
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) j3 h/ }( F1 F& @4 T0 vAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* ?) H4 B0 u' _+ |* e
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ D4 k  A+ P# H+ F6 R& s& [; l* Kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets. A( [, B& _5 M. I( m& C3 I
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
& k) j5 y0 [/ M5 M+ @! QSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.% j- \3 v1 E9 w( F1 y
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 T! O: f2 E4 I& F6 ?9 S* G
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 t. P: H; o4 X! y3 I$ sbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have' J, Y& _0 v2 x0 K% W" c
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; j# L& Y' l  e2 O% ]4 i: mCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 y$ u1 X/ M" q/ @positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
2 o" `9 J/ k4 H6 \ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
' u4 T/ _: N% [1 ifinding financing.7 r1 T" R8 b) \$ x
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they5 N2 c+ N8 c8 e5 d: _
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.. `6 W7 }5 s2 k( w
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and+ r8 A" Y% r" R5 p: B2 u
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 v# t) m; k. c* m
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- Y* q/ {2 f1 P0 p% w0 w
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.& V8 B" @0 t$ w7 L# ?( ~& ?
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ ]) C  S" D; D- Y
today.+ Y% ]1 G, [% V5 @
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( d. i1 S' a2 Y0 h% \8 g* n. v) B
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 s5 S" U6 ?) q' ]% Y: G
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
9 f. k3 C4 l' ?* A. h9 W- \" H5 q  gthe Greek default.! X- J: h: c# w. ]4 J# k
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  \7 ~! p' f0 ~
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 U* c, d" d+ I/ _7 Y' Q
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign  t" c2 o2 q+ u  h3 t, ^! W9 x' Y
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.0 `, T) [  l2 t* u2 c
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
# U9 l8 `5 X( m* R! ], F. bbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ t  @5 G  ?8 }# d9 l; o( q4 v4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece( D5 i$ v2 U2 ?9 O
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain)," K7 @6 s$ x% ^
but that was before Italy.
8 X1 e& D( y& }4 ~6 B. l It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
, A$ R3 Q$ k/ v/ e It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the( ?5 Z9 q. A$ H  s( \* d
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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; G! z5 I# z1 Y5 HConclusion
+ s4 Y: I& o  a4 {% z( Q  u We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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