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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary- \6 e# V$ z& G# j8 k
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
2 N7 l% J5 X( ?6 m( n: AJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
8 e/ Z8 g1 B  Y) fSignature Global Advisors5 R. ?5 A6 `+ Q% p: m5 `

1 U; G) j, ~" [8 B' \, N3 [* M- o
3 C1 g" x3 s% v7 q$ {. w+ sBackground remarks
% u7 W- P3 o$ q& A9 K/ m; L Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are$ O$ {$ N1 {& P6 `) d
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
. w- E- t2 }: K% ]; x Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal  p* w( w$ |  M+ f
adjustments.
/ ~3 [5 n8 x. q! c This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% R' o2 C% p7 j0 W# H$ Lsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
' @/ a9 b2 p9 W9 {7 P Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are* O2 r$ c2 f: r* S
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.6 a4 }% ]. L0 M6 _) n2 F
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
# D" E9 Q' q: Z6 g% Aadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
1 ^3 L% J3 \7 D% U  Y Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s+ K7 `1 }: w5 y: Q2 B
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.+ s6 t# i/ `- k
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.+ u, B8 V' O% n4 Y; G- S) w
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
2 I/ H' t. s# W* x  r( Z5 D& b9 E* Rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
4 p' O2 u2 C8 e! F" | The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
9 u+ I6 j* M; n9 Has funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
- z+ W( ?' c  ?1 Bimpose liquidation values.
! P& T9 M- C* O2 Y; `/ c In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 H) r- h* b$ `; T
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* K( w, ?$ ]# @* ~1 I' m The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 Z# W% O) }8 f) P$ o+ s
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ q1 U6 l7 R4 x! h( m! C- C

2 ~2 M4 k4 i  P( Z1 zA look at credit markets' w( ]( e) B8 n1 j9 w, m
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
$ c) O) n+ e$ P( X% ^September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
; h7 c% i& A: x0 H# [6 l7 v High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! t6 t' U+ @8 b2 w( G" o
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. w/ L% P, b, `8 rbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 B: t* Z9 Y# ~3 U8 k
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 m$ X1 I8 o( A0 iCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* ]( L2 {6 r. T
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
$ a. N7 I. O9 P Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% s( l" z( @* q5 M% _! ~' z
finding financing., @, S' w3 U7 \/ }3 X3 H
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 U, E2 q  |; n0 q0 ?" ^4 e
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- H) w# |8 L0 N! Y% i. D7 X9 K+ Z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and+ o" g$ O+ v- m, Z
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ m. Q2 L' j% M) B2 igoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
3 y/ Y0 q8 m$ ^bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.* U- f' A0 r6 T0 J( q* `- q8 X
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. t" i  u6 ]. s, W9 W' G8 l* M4 jtoday.6 |1 l% E, H# T5 p
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in; q$ w% a% O8 E! T
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
5 J: A2 r8 u& S- h Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
* j; x- g1 p3 j& j- I7 Pthe Greek default.9 f7 M+ P: Z3 Y4 W& b
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
: F8 n1 M) [1 g8 d1 @- L5 |' X1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default) U, p% a$ ?6 J
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign# p' `' x, k' J7 q. R7 t" H
debt stabilization, needs government approvals./ y% w6 G7 e3 q+ f+ N
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
5 S7 F! Z0 R  h3 v  F  Vbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
, s* K, l( o7 M4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.4 N) v( O9 n6 a  ?5 a

! k. Z1 i. Z  q) G+ t. VBeyond Greece& ^- }( m6 r+ [. B8 M% K9 |( Q9 F! B
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" I) P8 j) S, t3 d- J  wbut that was before Italy.
5 i$ U/ y( n7 O+ H It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.2 g* o2 p- q0 G+ l
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
3 W/ G0 Q5 S" b) X( Y; T' D) cItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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2 O" z) K' F% g- R$ m: rConclusion
6 f$ @6 C& F! `* H: p, w) G We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
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发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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