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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
$ ~1 @, o( @  J. s  v( wEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& k8 r# d) [8 Z* _, ^James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
" _( o; h, @8 {3 O/ W' Y' g# d" fSignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
* w5 h$ h( g1 u% S' y& H Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
  q7 l4 X- s: g$ |5 y6 Z. P8 yas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
0 q! v& f# \% G/ B( ^% w' k Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
' E, b( _0 P+ U% k* Radjustments.2 H5 u2 K4 H* {) \  b' Q
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
2 e3 j3 p  {3 E8 _1 Hsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.! s+ i! Q- [5 G' I% B" x
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are' J1 I) `3 G- x6 X8 u, b0 o8 |3 x
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" L: C% B) L6 W! e; u6 U& B% F We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
$ Y4 ]8 M8 ~3 U' |+ {/ W+ Padjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* s5 K7 ]9 l4 s8 k9 p, r1 X Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 t& W/ z, j+ f1 W' E' _quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.: f) P9 O) [% _; i! \
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
' c3 c3 @1 |! Y$ i3 \2 U Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; G- [  y/ _) J! K* ]reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation5 s* x4 O* N7 D3 a* g6 G" g
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; h& ?$ ]6 }3 m( bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; S- d* ]+ J8 s" @6 D4 r
impose liquidation values.
  f7 `4 x; c) D% x8 \; V0 I In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
/ _- k* v. \( A6 P: g$ WAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
7 n; `6 Q9 ~* p1 p' y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
: Z: C# b' n3 b& \8 U; _8 `scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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3 L1 U) D# G$ P, b/ C. |2 |A look at credit markets
! b! w% o3 n! @! S. | Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ n+ Q" `4 o6 B2 F. d6 z
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. e% V6 x, }( B! v: w2 R+ v" ~% w
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%2 R5 c5 Y- w6 B4 ]5 [$ ?- m, s. C
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; o: m  S+ E7 L2 {9 h
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
' T. r% B2 I* ?3 |% R, Taccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ E9 r5 {6 f0 F, X( p1 kCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
. Y7 @9 x- \; z' rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
  r4 `+ ]0 T2 l4 s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' j( b) O% O4 d( m6 ^
finding financing.
' g; q5 D" A( |1 b; l" w* O8 e Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 l$ ^" s- G0 a* k7 {$ w
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. k& R( l5 \1 z# {- ~1 q0 u7 B3 B Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) C! v  {& x# q# h1 U' e
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* g8 ?" v7 w& z* A$ O3 Pgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 m0 L& I; x0 `4 N6 m$ ?7 `
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: O: h/ |/ J" W6 q2 W6 e: j! b( ~
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 z3 M( M2 G" Y% p1 E0 b$ V
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 q: B' \5 |5 Q7 W* K# A Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, \4 X; A' B4 {/ `( e3 ]the Greek default.( X4 y5 s) L5 \8 V" [
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:7 {( T* v$ K, ?( D- |0 M
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. V' E5 @: o7 w- s2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
' c* X- u0 ^& q0 P+ w8 I- Ddebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
$ d. U3 a( G* w% o9 p: j  e3 x3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing5 b* j0 l7 v  y3 L( K: f
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years$ E; U" ~* M% E% p( {/ l1 U2 q
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
; v/ y- N- a: _ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' b$ L5 d4 @5 E! U
but that was before Italy.
( }& W  }/ b, O2 F9 R$ f$ d It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
9 t8 K: i) H( o/ w: W6 U It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& O% Z* @2 D0 K; `
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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$ I. h- D' S% r- V! }Conclusion9 ]" C+ u+ K4 P1 V; O
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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