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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary  U; v4 Y: O+ L5 Q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer% {5 N+ O# \6 O6 x' _5 X
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager) c& F; e& d5 T7 j
Signature Global Advisors
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- o( W9 G0 Z! v9 m0 ?+ ?* EBackground remarks
0 B8 ?/ a% ]1 n* y/ O4 l( o3 U Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are1 v$ A; {4 t7 z
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.9 ?& ?3 I8 r' w3 z' V* r
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal# i0 a) `" C" J& {+ `; @
adjustments.
( E& Z5 I+ w$ k5 T$ @6 _# Q This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social- O+ b' M7 V8 H& m0 v
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 X2 I( B5 q: h. W# f2 R# c
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
0 p+ B2 {2 p0 f2 H+ {3 ?0 Flessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ Z& x! ]# o& Y( \) [ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 X; H& H; v0 v8 W2 w4 T2 G8 K% d/ qadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
. b# z; [" S: y& Y3 d0 a: v* q% C Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s4 k+ ^7 N8 e2 ?. }$ u7 b) f8 s& t
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.4 B' r, w0 N+ r# C
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
; u7 E7 T$ P3 i8 | Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
9 ]* B; F& D7 p+ O; zreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 v: {0 i6 a7 ?2 X! n5 c The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long; e1 ?! S& F% {" Q" ^
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
8 F# q9 @7 j8 R4 t) v/ `4 ~* kimpose liquidation values.
: k+ s! n( [. R% k0 v In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& F- q4 R' A2 b' TAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view./ W  f6 \. m1 [( \9 P5 H
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
& B# d$ c) B3 s9 D4 iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
7 s3 V0 f9 K( C  }" G Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 w0 R0 m8 ^& }$ JSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
$ V* l( @! i6 G/ q( z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 r3 B2 K) N) {: @) ^+ I, l
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
! K/ d" y* w/ Mbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" c# n% y3 Z! @/ s
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
  u4 n2 |* v9 z; y- T1 h- R" S6 hCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: W4 W; ?7 O" Z6 h% ?: n3 n# E  L
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
" p/ U5 R3 Y! h8 ^ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble- o5 i) x6 n8 D9 A
finding financing.
  G, ]/ R! G, g7 s2 T( n  ^ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 Q- v* k. C% X2 M8 u5 Uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.0 c5 d& E% _" }7 u  @- r5 b
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 r) o$ ]$ p+ H6 e3 Z2 Uis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. {/ T  L1 d; {) B" {
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ i6 c; F+ Z- bbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.  r9 B" |$ c* L+ b/ W
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) w5 W. n/ v! y' ^3 n6 @today.& n8 X" q, w* ]  X! V/ i+ Q
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
2 h7 g- Z3 m! {6 T$ y7 T; z  m7 \emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, {# ?9 f! P1 G, H% M$ V Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for9 S& b7 r9 V* w# C) u
the Greek default.
$ u, N; f! _' y5 ~4 M. e As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
% O3 a# G* h! V/ a1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
# @. m! X( q5 T- t+ ]2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
* e4 d) v) V/ f% H3 n7 L7 e; Y9 Adebt stabilization, needs government approvals.+ {' v* S1 C7 k6 M8 Q& P
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing2 Z, J: S. h! r3 Z& F* i
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years, h1 Q' l$ G" S
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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1 h, ~; t' Y/ y4 ?5 W# UBeyond Greece; n$ p) z' F  F- d8 y/ T, l
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' V+ O. h4 X1 F
but that was before Italy.& n& r2 M6 `0 e* ?
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
  r& i# a7 k. d1 z It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
+ L1 ^$ w" f( I5 |, s$ rItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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7 C: j4 @" h8 }+ H0 {- eConclusion! I. x* v  u6 u, O
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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