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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
* M' c4 R0 K; R1 {+ N: X. O) Z' l- b) e7 ?/ t
Market Commentary8 a# Q1 T; r8 S( V+ @1 W: ?
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, k0 J/ s2 V( D# V9 q" DJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager1 Q9 [! V2 c4 A* z) P
Signature Global Advisors
8 C/ m- |- ]+ |: i; k
. H% q* R) Y6 Z
$ h$ \0 Z8 f( [4 `& w& QBackground remarks
1 H# f& j: ~# Z0 o) t" } Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 }# s3 a  V3 _( E& ~as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& @) h4 F# R1 k0 V0 t
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
& B; |/ Q1 r1 u8 U+ Wadjustments.
/ x6 }0 w8 E& @7 O This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social6 _* C, c' [* u- E1 D
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.8 N8 q# r% [) B
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are5 f) w8 w/ l: W' q
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
% g0 U: b3 E% v* j# Y6 Q We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
6 }2 e9 l* Y, G6 Ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.% Y% t% _( g0 ]5 h
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
2 h! B% s% P" P3 B" qquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.% {& G; q& q% z6 x5 }2 V. H
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.4 R9 s5 Y1 U' _; _3 s1 {
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
6 `/ B  ~6 {$ T5 a0 Rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
* P$ S$ W& ?3 Q& @9 e The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ S' \/ P7 V5 y* e, @as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' L' r9 W* L8 W1 G; v- e/ j2 `2 v
impose liquidation values.
# o# f- d2 a& Q# J& d In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
+ \1 e" E, {! o5 r' KAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.& b' M( I0 \8 O
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension2 Y# r5 e  N& f, V3 E" ^6 t
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets# N$ b- D) O  X) Y6 m
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, y" K; T' t. f0 C* y; D" I% @# ZSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 p) J! X* R+ r  W0 s, n6 A
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%% e" Y* r4 W) ]* @( O
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1' n% i1 |) S- W
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. V5 c, i' e1 B
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& m- U' z7 O; V7 B& j
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 _2 h. X+ m, g! V0 D& Jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 M! A" l5 l6 q/ z% v
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 l; s/ \$ u3 k1 b
finding financing.0 E! l* ?8 Q7 p" h
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 |; ]' T9 ^6 g6 N' E7 ]8 Z0 r0 N) B
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- q1 ~. Z; I/ F) l Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, N$ V& ^( w  C2 o; v3 l
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
0 N9 F, P% X  l6 A. B! }& Fgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 T5 t" v2 L" {bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; S7 Z- u9 ]6 `% d9 ~
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ ?7 e0 H3 v# Q7 Y
today.
) t: s: I2 |# ~0 v/ q" O4 S Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in6 Z1 h7 R  U* a$ a* c
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
) z) A; n* u  [5 ?  S Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for/ w0 {6 ~% N+ W" f3 d
the Greek default.
; ~1 f6 Z2 n2 K8 h" B% e% m As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
- I) H8 B7 |' [# A1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default/ B% X4 \  `6 }- t
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
9 Y& S% T; P# L% adebt stabilization, needs government approvals.( g( D; O6 h- U3 b& K
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
5 w. M! U; B; C  ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years% g' t0 u% J( {* k
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
5 ^5 ]& O0 k/ Y9 o; h' _( h7 m& `4 _/ t1 I, T: c
Beyond Greece$ J4 ]7 X" [5 M+ T; \* B
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 V/ z; Y0 t$ I& j4 |6 j% i+ dbut that was before Italy.2 v; `0 C, e7 K, a4 R
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
0 k0 O- R3 j7 O6 _$ l7 o% ~9 T It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. I3 k6 w/ E4 NItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
* Y) R" p( \2 }- _( y, M0 K4 O9 Y. Z& A3 ?$ K$ J
Conclusion$ X4 e8 j9 u7 p: Y: x; W
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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