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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation4 \$ x$ Q( Z+ C; F, z& L
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
8 p9 u B/ w, B7 A/ X9 l% W: J- K8 Das funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
2 {+ x2 |" Q0 Himpose liquidation values.
! E( N5 f! T8 r( p In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
+ ]" J5 {. M" T, g( A6 \August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ q+ A+ d& p6 Y! C" F3 |/ e) }+ l The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
8 j- H* Q& U2 bscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.' J* |2 O- i7 u3 N; G5 e
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A look at credit markets* z7 ^: L9 o; e5 U
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in8 `' M) I' w% G( H
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* D& _' x4 g, T. A High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
4 G7 V2 `, g8 _( T3 I: h/ @% ]then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ _# L* N% p3 U# h7 Fbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 S! ^2 F5 W3 _: M: D
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade8 z* c* S/ e* L; C* V- Q/ n
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are8 i5 q* a& m( n) z/ j3 W" r
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# |3 ]% n, j( n5 V; e0 L0 @ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble; t$ p* |4 m! O
finding financing.1 ]2 l4 a, s$ C' E
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they- d1 q S2 C0 N3 A: b; J
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.6 n9 Q# a) h, m' T, t9 q2 q
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
4 V; e! G8 `7 J/ x3 c% `2 fis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were0 L' i; b( q$ J, U5 C
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! g9 ]* W2 w7 l/ b. u
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
# ]: G$ x& V. A f6 Q" f" u European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain \1 L8 ?* c# c8 E1 y+ s
today.
* ~2 J9 }8 k+ R7 k ]' I Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
; n- g6 @0 E3 j |, k! ]6 Zemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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