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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.
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, G# v2 o9 z* B4 }, N% uhttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.+ h" O [& o7 ?$ `/ E8 ^
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.
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In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.( C: N3 f3 s& j5 G) ?/ k
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Why might it be a good time to sell?
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.
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0 M6 v1 O: ^ r2 @' j; H h- a"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.0 O- i1 n3 y( ?- e4 g+ p: w
8 T( v' B- P4 j& t, Z W"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.5 N$ P i0 a" }( k' h
2 M. H# }1 f8 `- t, EThe profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.
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4 S8 n7 K9 V2 ]& y) EOf course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.
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/ ?. x1 @8 K, Z) m G5 a& LBurleton knows how they feel.8 l: w2 u/ S7 J! i Q
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.
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While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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8 V3 G/ i9 C6 B2 \5 r8 qWith ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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And Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.: D) n2 ^+ g# ~4 k# J5 H
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In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.. y' T. o- y# ^: I9 B
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Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.5 S: O, L( g4 B# x2 ~/ m
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David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky." ~- J, _. }% z f0 b1 |
, `( y) r6 n9 v+ D9 Z9 j"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.
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1 u f0 J0 B/ @$ G' N: {8 l$ O"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.# o$ B: z2 C8 j' g, a7 o/ i
/ ?3 `5 W2 N) E: J* s" PBut then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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