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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable 8 n- |( g+ j0 s! `
/ Y! R, S0 |; |8 s$ D( U
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -" M7 U0 I. r( o. v/ U3 I
- z. C% M1 \$ o5 Z n" B, S9 W$ L; S, P TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market: h1 s4 f$ R7 ]4 C- T- h# z( c8 S
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third2 K( m/ k. Z% d
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic0 z" g) S2 V8 F9 D: L( N
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit6 k; O' V9 u* G/ G/ [* i: z
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and6 \( X# |! W1 w( d( f
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
{' @$ d2 Y8 Q/ Y0 n9 U0 \( XQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal: }7 e# u% n! {) _. u
LePage Real Estate Services.2 u4 @( j) B ^3 g
x; ^9 a7 Q: b Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
7 X7 a" i( ~. Tare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
* x) M a+ y: L& Xconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and6 z) u! D8 z5 A# @5 g9 `
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
8 O% ^# q5 X" |& Gresidential real estate sector.9 R, e0 g5 C0 S& {$ ^ ]
7 v1 s* G4 h8 N* ^$ v/ f* ]
Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
, x f6 k: `2 g! n6 [7 u: B Doccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
: p- a3 |; a2 hyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562& p* S' r0 U& h+ V/ ]
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
6 [# H& S4 T$ h5 e( _7 T' \; C* d9 u(+13.2%).
- r) K. u6 X' r! P* F; w" v6 \& ]$ f9 ~- v
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth" g h* ^4 [5 L. O9 Y
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the6 j Y- n8 a, m ]' m
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
2 z& k: m7 C, b. d) N" zpoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
; t6 c% O/ K: Z8 I: X$ ]7 O* @president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
1 _! S& S# x0 S- \! x% M"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We ?$ v1 T9 a" _6 Z# r* D1 H
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy6 c5 _' P9 C& Z1 {1 C1 a
balanced market."
" \1 r+ n+ k: z1 v- T) g+ n) c) { _; x) a; h& }
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
+ A/ V6 c' c& O6 O3 y) Xconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
0 E4 U+ O! `- o1 x/ d0 S$ T0 @0 i+ y' sto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued' p. Q' E- _" a9 H/ f: U6 N* g
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core1 J* R2 `8 ^, c2 |" c- E
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
- M# y0 ]7 B! q7 Emanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record/ q5 K3 H! d2 f. r: W" |: G
breaking price appreciations.& I% {" V4 x, g |
8 ?1 ~5 M s8 ^" q6 R8 X
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding; u; f) p- |# V R- |+ L
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
. ~0 ^% p% m/ J3 O5 v3 L' Clargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed." G- b1 ?: N) u6 {
; O% D' [. T; n9 ^8 U- G
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
y( s: J- _/ O n8 o' Zeconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
5 H4 [. ] P; _9 hconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off& e. e& G1 n+ {* ~# B6 E
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
6 E6 D& j$ x0 G' iIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
" }3 u7 }+ d/ mgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
+ G9 K3 W% E1 u8 _price appreciation when compared with 2005.
8 b2 g/ {5 X( {9 H# l% }
, S0 a4 W( R9 X" a4 N While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing& |' _: L1 v$ u" J. p) N
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
! z0 K, d$ `) ]8 G! ~2 J& `% hfinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
. t0 X6 u M$ @5 {7 Q kare markedly different than those found in the United States.
/ u- p: ]( u' C. |% [6 r G
4 M$ w1 M1 j* z Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the% F0 h* Y, b: ]6 Q. W# [ T
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
7 U4 c, h+ W$ J% Hfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
+ b- H v, u9 F' C) l$ irelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
! e" [' j% o$ W* paffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
: k/ e9 p" f4 F8 K- @* zdownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
# Q* Z/ ]; n, p. o7 H. U; T3 xaggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
! o! U0 ]3 ]& D% lmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
( P' {7 B4 n$ D* ~8 ~) r' X9 p( N4 `8 W% [0 j& o% x9 q
<<
, B! `2 F1 @& x5 b( a3 r REGIONAL SUMMARIES( J+ Q, ~/ s* d+ D
>>, m2 r" p. G5 M5 E( a: _/ {
, \0 n( h W7 T. F Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in Y: q p- z" Z/ U& c/ S$ z
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
@ o1 Y- [& T4 _+ X0 ]of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time/ K9 u, f, t( b2 J" P
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of7 [$ G9 I. G( i6 W$ B7 p
renovations. w. C- u( h) W1 U$ o) D
1 r- _# {3 G0 s; S The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight0 t; o$ l/ n/ b
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation+ K6 Q. M! X G9 }0 c9 x7 X
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
3 j+ h4 j: X8 C! S- ESeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
& V/ e& K- P! ]& j& f; E
0 y9 E$ A$ t9 [ The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer( _8 J" Q: J: B* t
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the1 o0 r* v! L8 u3 R/ l& R
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new1 p0 N( E6 I" o! C
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
5 p9 Z& b0 _3 e& f" h+ y0 D6 a. eto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes6 O6 @' q( u4 d6 a
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options., L. ^& H4 |2 \. W/ F
& m1 f9 G0 d/ j8 m/ [2 `
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
/ ~5 \- `4 B% u6 B6 Iconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
. L/ p- h- G! T" h0 n. e7 bhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
8 @& [$ g' N {1 N2 b" Bwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian) H; Q6 f6 I9 J6 C
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing1 v y' I6 R/ k' g
buyers with more options when looking for a home.# {1 [* ~" {5 y- ?
6 w1 N, v# s9 n6 l p# I6 g! W' |
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
6 o4 _* X8 u% _7 R: x0 kamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes# g/ ^, d* l- @# q0 W7 P
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
% } X3 P' l$ }/ a5 c. L. q Ras some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
9 D: W6 t" v/ \- rfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
% [# t& J4 A9 I3 S' Q
- f* t2 B* h' z4 `( N/ k Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
2 P, f4 d# w! S3 R2 H Wprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
& v, F) B' B% ?levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
( P& r( k. h! G1 A* I9 Tfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
# P* b7 B- ~, h' Bwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the5 o/ i$ M1 S! u- a' E/ H2 p
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before- o% {$ \% R7 X/ L+ r* R
making a purchase.
% c. H. e* j" t$ F, T
/ w! y" r* y' J: y } Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing: m1 V e% s& Z6 B1 o
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
8 l. z) i9 r: L7 {' Fconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city" J! o) j* w! r; h) E% f
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
4 F: e# c7 |, a/ g* L9 P0 ?3 @ sattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
( J) P: f7 N/ u" p& ^- Gamenities.' Q4 w8 }+ Q3 N0 w' {
1 F* f* v# ^7 O2 Y" j The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels% x9 i& w4 @% Z+ s6 h+ P7 h
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand2 ^ L3 j. ?" {, a& k- k ]
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
. k$ U" V1 G5 K# A- U/ s6 G3 r6 vcontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been7 ?1 ?" P& v) W4 j; A% P
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
; y8 Y7 }% n, W6 e" }residence, rather than for investment.: [# C1 _" K. l# _8 ^
& y S% L. E7 D/ Q The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
$ ]9 y* t- L! ahouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted. s$ i0 R. J* }# V: o/ |
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer T/ F, D; s- Y5 p/ H1 H# J
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
! W4 y7 y* [' Trate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter; E* \0 z6 W8 i+ R5 w
the market.' R Q% P3 j! r* T) _/ V T
( v @( z v0 P, S4 F [. ^# K
In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
0 F( B$ W1 a8 b2 U" t( gJuly, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
$ }& ]5 `3 ^4 A. ^; TAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
( S* ]* @0 e/ Qmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
9 N# E: M9 W3 h; l! j3 }* K$ Q: uto the shortage of available inventory." f- {( k, R. {( j1 V
; K. s$ l. t+ d- J
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
+ V5 M- g- u& ^% ^8 f' Zmomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains1 e4 _" s4 ?7 m( o; f) \
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses! |5 f; ?: B& F3 i' d. A
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.- k4 R4 B% h7 t, I4 z5 m" g" r4 `
2 i+ r" w1 ]: V7 R5 l. ^8 u: ]
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
# g' V7 Q$ H3 `' a* c' xin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
0 T2 S* o2 j* O! x4 f8 [# Xunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that8 M* A2 U+ F' n( u# ]- c
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
2 P5 e9 ^- H/ O, K Hprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer" E6 V$ E* j9 G
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as+ a, @4 M3 S5 G
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.. P2 C9 v* @; c$ V9 ?* ]% \
7 C: j# v2 a; j6 T9 I3 P
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter* E4 N* J( K( D0 J* ]. v, H
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton( R( P5 [9 g$ f( L- A+ a
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
: k# \4 z- X3 Amaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
$ p7 \7 z7 h/ i7 z4 B. j3 i3 Dincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
& ~3 h' z2 J9 a: qin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
% L$ g& B2 }1 R/ o: m1 I$ d- r/ f6 utowards the end of 2006. 5 D {( y/ ~6 m/ {
5 y/ U0 _ C9 X' t# g3 o7 T. y; U, x7 i
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of/ S) q$ _2 y% h) C' t: P
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable1 u8 U. Y6 t" I
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
. Z. r$ v, m9 ggroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
+ N; P6 F; U4 j. d, W! y) t* Z( i; aforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
& n4 s: x7 _+ }' y' ^% ^5 v. rpressure on tight inventory levels.7 s4 N2 U9 Y3 x
, B4 e, O% I5 p; Z
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
% I1 t* M. \ w! J2 ?) wfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people2 q) E D( [& c: i. y2 k
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;0 ], g& U+ q1 q0 m
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
4 \ z$ w+ x; A* Cfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.0 b, i& T. d' Z! _
8 s$ U+ I0 B+ l7 c <<
% u$ Y3 {8 N J) F3 V Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 20066 F2 Y& G% t/ U, T$ w- O+ d
; |) ]1 j/ D6 ?6 L! [
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
( @) x, y$ M1 M2 j/ k( E Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey* z6 G, a8 s) N6 I1 g! W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------6 {/ ~9 j+ y: f# [# d% Q
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3" |# L. K6 n e
Market Average Average % Change Average Average
% n% E: h1 e: N3 E -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& B4 s V1 X C Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,0004 U! }5 V7 I1 S+ F" A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 Z' m) U. z' p1 M4 Q Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
. L3 z1 N4 S. a, e -------------------------------------------------------------------------( n+ }1 g: |7 N$ E3 {. _" |
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000( e! u5 ~3 K; s1 v4 M) F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 T- h# d0 w- I' M6 A: H5 j Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -/ d3 x" w8 z4 D& D
-------------------------------------------------------------------------0 u" J+ M+ w/ f. _1 R
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
! D% T# p+ k4 g+ }/ ~0 w -------------------------------------------------------------------------
! D/ G0 Q/ r6 s& i, w Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
! l. E* i/ f7 }; F: U7 ^ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* R6 D/ R5 ?/ g Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
0 E! [& b- K; O$ ^- t# _ -------------------------------------------------------------------------. D) L" r: C9 k! M
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
; }- ~1 E* v% D+ M: b6 B -------------------------------------------------------------------------
" ~- O. ?/ K; m% B3 J4 h! e2 e& c Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766+ @" e" _% U4 y4 {' \
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 U% A$ Z. Y0 b+ {1 t G3 L( |/ ~ Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
1 U# H1 k1 b5 J" S5 Z* G -------------------------------------------------------------------------, V$ ]) S3 D& w1 u1 ~% L9 s
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,5000 \1 m! Q9 z9 D( x# _
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
" H0 L" s. V: z, W, L: {* s: K Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
* g2 U" o0 q( I3 X -------------------------------------------------------------------------* V" V) y# X1 N7 _! J- f
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
2 W& k# B3 L+ {+ P. a -------------------------------------------------------------------------
: \: U5 a( {/ v! p/ M Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
3 e2 l( {% C1 {, q' D5 R -------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ G1 m' I! w8 V1 p Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000) P. G4 D/ d$ [# m+ r; a2 G- ?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------( H' {$ v3 K X+ g2 F k% B& A
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,8604 ^$ u, d. O1 J8 W* ?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- c, \2 f8 `$ F4 o+ b( y
3 p1 D- ]4 M8 L! @, A -------------------------------------------------------------/ O8 c5 K1 c- X, ^' j
Standard Condominium
4 B3 R8 K$ I. h9 |, [! p& \ -------------------------------------------------------------, C/ R7 w$ u% ?3 u+ E2 t& W
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo S7 h t) _" t4 @, \
Market % Change Average Average % Change3 p+ |# [* P% {' d; h
-------------------------------------------------------------3 z2 a6 T. {( {: p, ?2 g
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%) t l% U4 o x) V; @
-------------------------------------------------------------
( L( U1 e% S: b3 @ Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%' P4 |. p) L" m1 N6 k
-------------------------------------------------------------
" n5 J" ^" I$ P' ?" j5 h Moncton 4.9% - - N/A g u# W3 |! D8 i; q: m
-------------------------------------------------------------
, V- c/ I2 Q2 v, E/ M Saint John N/A - - N/A
, @- x$ p* o/ i# R% e* f% R1 l" } -------------------------------------------------------------
+ N2 I5 L* Z8 x+ W St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
4 C: j1 I( E: A: B3 N -------------------------------------------------------------& J; T0 \2 G1 \) I+ x: e
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%8 |) I. U/ X0 L# u4 U
-------------------------------------------------------------+ U l/ N" W. B4 b: U+ ?) W
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%! v+ _2 [# q! j& j" C! O
-------------------------------------------------------------4 Y4 L! e4 \/ V- o* ?- J+ y8 Q
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
+ b" X: w9 z/ u -------------------------------------------------------------# |/ h, S1 {, m- r$ E5 Z9 j
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
- r3 W( V4 t ~; E% ?5 \ -------------------------------------------------------------0 w2 N+ ]1 |7 B( w; s8 t
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%6 @! C& [& v: {: S' _% F& K/ C
-------------------------------------------------------------
- p6 N! y" m Y* f! ? Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
* q# h0 f& C. U/ j1 s -------------------------------------------------------------$ l9 l5 _# W6 i4 O" [1 Q
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
, G: r( v" j. A& [5 z& S+ h; z -------------------------------------------------------------5 b" t9 h! F/ V0 v0 h
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%8 {$ l& C8 a2 k' P" S3 Q
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 I# X; f$ E. d* g3 H) b6 J1 Z; R4 } Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%- \6 I3 R1 D0 J* [) u
-------------------------------------------------------------# y" W& a3 s& E2 R5 T% y7 n
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
6 c/ y$ z3 _; p+ w/ u- s -------------------------------------------------------------+ A3 I# J4 m9 \' z+ d& a' L7 Q
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%' `+ J8 H0 i* y# [# ~
-------------------------------------------------------------
) B7 [( c( E3 E s, g2 U) k >>$ ^' T+ i, f) v( [
& B. d% J# ]0 @8 M Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined3 }; s$ u% F% _0 b/ ^3 k
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
) f& S2 r, V, p1 N/ i4 WJohn and Victoria.* z3 z. y0 ?. s! i7 b: a$ J1 d- Z: [
$ z5 {2 R; I& t7 R) W The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
' f; l4 c6 x+ q8 @+ _& i2 x& vcomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of! j0 d+ L2 ^& m$ p# H( s" k: t
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release* e) i9 v7 S8 B6 B# e
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price) c U. M, q/ I6 a5 p) s" Z
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities* V) e7 n: k. m! z
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
: g: K) p/ U+ y- s2 \* G2 Gavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current4 i ^) _2 C: A
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
' u* Q$ h6 c8 V5 Qversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
3 j# r. T- c8 r2 L& I+ }$ }November 15, 2006.7 ~) O l) S; G0 _. X
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
?" [" v9 X- R4 \ {% ufair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge$ i( _% K+ G, v' N) \, V0 _4 Q
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is( C9 P- S3 C% g r1 k; p. d/ v
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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