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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable ; r3 t: v& f0 Q7 h8 S' `( a2 `6 Z
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- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
8 m, s/ T* h& z# f% t& n" i# yexhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third! }. L& U2 O2 D& o
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
( |7 u Y3 S% z0 _! l3 D9 Vin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit8 U/ d) p, Q# C Y' z5 k# J
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and2 q3 K5 W7 j) l) C: s' d
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,2 s0 M4 F- Q) `- Q0 C7 D
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal3 a3 y5 h7 H2 u% v2 B" V3 A
LePage Real Estate Services.; x: R6 R9 [. Z% n& v% E
" v- W3 q& y# o9 q9 [ Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters ?$ S% ]0 s# s8 H
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
& I: w2 p9 b- g+ m1 U% [conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
( T& f" s, w9 X! Nsound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
/ ]& x. o& C/ m8 |residential real estate sector." p8 B. l P/ M1 @5 t
) i$ f7 T0 Y5 G3 {0 R* \% Z I Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation. O. c, J( Z# w, E1 i7 B& g5 z
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%); |6 [& P6 O* S3 q4 r' e+ o2 y9 j
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
6 l' ?! X- _" x. x& c: D(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380. q. H: L# P, v2 e# e' X; {! }
(+13.2%).
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"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
( q: q& C. T B! {$ g0 u) g# vduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the. Y/ t ?5 |4 A& Y: z+ A6 K
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
/ V5 i* w& m6 s' j( T2 `& f8 _poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,, ]' e6 v d7 B9 T( U
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services., Z; b9 I+ k9 y: f% {8 x
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
1 u4 {$ R- i% _: P+ Owelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy+ @1 G' M* F8 Q( ?: g
balanced market."
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Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,+ N4 x* Q; T6 |7 l3 ~! O* {) c
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
6 F% K, h* x. l3 |- Dto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
) N! N8 g) f2 T* M8 Pthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
* X8 D2 M6 k8 Ienergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,( l. A6 o5 q: o# s4 ^; _ M, D
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
: [7 c: O5 N! h2 {breaking price appreciations.. A3 _2 v/ ?7 `; X8 r, k
8 y) ~! l& S4 i3 O Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding4 f4 e: R" \. k$ L: C
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the& F0 G# S# D. O
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
0 I2 \1 X; m+ X* T% g6 D
3 Z; j5 [- t# `) _% G5 M; B In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid' F! a8 U" [- b/ i6 R2 ~4 s# c: g6 J
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer4 I* ~ i, _/ Z4 Q6 [3 ?4 d% W/ m+ ]+ R8 r
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
% G& M* J$ |4 m# W$ O. ?8 W1 \0 Eslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
. }: L& r# o" |0 YIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers+ h8 R& k% b0 j" |0 V; Q% @3 C0 d
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of# u7 B. L3 o. w2 C1 Y( }
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
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While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
& @4 [4 B o/ N( u2 N: Z1 zmarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
u, N1 B) Z$ K% kfinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
! X {8 R D) y" e( [' p) [* T. R; K, ^are markedly different than those found in the United States.
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Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the% ^- t: [0 ^5 ] A2 I4 }4 S
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's) V8 ?5 W, O9 D j
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
8 z* x* |" g5 c, Q8 Srelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
; f/ {$ r/ G/ z xaffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
: s3 @- J" A+ g! x# N; t1 X* \downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
' X; V g5 _/ s4 N' Y+ taggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
( k& g# z' i8 |mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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<<
& `& o! g- d& ?; `0 \9 {8 y" S REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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( O* U; L, W4 m Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in8 t( ~) G$ A2 @* v( q
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate# B+ M; M& @# U# }/ c5 G
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
& C# \/ y$ X; l9 Z8 k( jlooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
. p# ?1 U1 T& {+ X: b( nrenovations.: E% F0 A5 h& P3 b( h
# {9 i! r( j8 N1 u3 ]/ M* @. ^ The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight5 [) z5 M; Z! ]0 u0 Y, J# V- p
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation5 g9 u( x* r a: K
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
0 h- l. A; b _9 J& r9 cSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
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The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
! O6 ^+ s9 F, `; n4 X0 p& dslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
" `/ X1 u' Z' i2 X: Pquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new9 T( c# B! ^7 s( G, _9 ?
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
8 B( r: B' D9 i+ R& qto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
7 _3 a. ~! ?* \$ I$ Q* Yand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
; Y) X) U% S" }8 y$ y2 `
0 K& m4 X; v( c. [3 k0 |6 s In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
1 p- U, D$ d/ @# i4 u, S/ E. Xconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
3 O& Y% D$ _. g. a7 N. F( ^# {. Lhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers$ O, ]/ V% J8 [9 Z7 S3 x" y7 v7 A! s
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian; n+ ~* i, y! P* w. ^
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
# s" v7 c* d: U: f5 l8 Ubuyers with more options when looking for a home.
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Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
$ D& @, y/ Y8 A* _: O4 v& G, R5 iamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes8 _% ]; P" f+ s2 C4 \
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,! ` U5 d' \4 }& H) M a$ b# y% u. x
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
7 ~$ {# t* i" D) Nfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.3 `: p4 z0 U! o7 t0 Q
% g' T' t# d+ b. n5 v
Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house3 M& q! y7 H8 R% F/ ]) u9 D
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
! E8 t# U2 N5 l* |* T8 Z9 m% ~4 wlevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting0 w, c7 O8 [8 |2 l' X8 F9 e& U
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,6 N0 Z% e1 E- |4 b2 }
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the0 W- B3 A8 c. f+ A+ N1 N& E5 T. G
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
" Q' \2 R$ U% } \( R* _4 emaking a purchase.7 V4 A/ N) V4 {/ ~9 ]4 g6 Q/ n' g
2 A: ^0 f1 E& X+ ?$ k Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
: |- A' K) }+ E9 t. b Q/ h* {7 [markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
/ [( F1 \* V- [$ t" Uconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
' a! f$ e! B$ y7 O. D5 m2 N! zcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting9 W4 ^( ? O9 d$ m g* Z; R( y' I
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown4 v' ]/ r4 Z% q- v
amenities.' ]% T9 z* `: \/ |* w9 {' D
1 p' [0 d$ C. Q. ~& E5 x The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels2 U1 }! Y4 F0 s( c- t
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
e0 }* f+ `7 }9 @0 R* Z6 ]across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
- H% c* X$ a9 G: F6 X3 Ccontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
" Q5 e( \6 x z$ L( Ndriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle1 ] X! s% {$ P9 g' D5 O
residence, rather than for investment.2 }4 b4 x; e# D
. F/ Z$ s* R2 i; `. B2 M; f The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as; e r& Y: H; E4 ~# o8 x2 [7 M: P8 @
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted' J W. M* c, z5 {7 ?/ L
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer% P( I) B) m* }
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
5 N+ ~# o( a, m8 b3 ?4 H0 Wrate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
0 z1 U. Z, W4 r; e/ ]the market.
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In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
6 C) p2 R6 Q# H5 M: X4 a- p* M2 TJuly, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In$ J" ^+ [8 V# P' f7 i( }- w
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
* H3 l) R7 ]5 ~" @months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
+ {3 j7 D0 u8 R6 Q9 |# [, Qto the shortage of available inventory.0 G/ @# [1 j3 b2 L7 _. o" \
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Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its" q8 D+ b" z/ s' L
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
& U7 L' a, }* k: i) Zvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
8 N( ?7 r, j) [5 a' Z' A9 estruggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.4 F$ {. ^0 S9 R% n
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Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases) L+ k8 Y5 Z- q
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low' w0 R7 Y: `# @, j6 K9 X
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that' A: w) J. A* }
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring8 P/ R* _2 u5 A, M& F
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer% M w$ Y( p$ k# j w1 h/ k1 c( K- ~
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as# P" G. y) E6 S
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity./ M! L( Z t2 ?
5 [. Y$ N! u! Y2 Z- Z1 m6 e
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter5 n2 p2 }6 v# E. L
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
/ \3 Y7 y6 Z" z/ q4 c+ Qremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry," ^. U+ i8 S" w
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
U' R' k/ X7 z5 R1 qincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
5 _: X+ @7 D: `0 Ain the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly$ E1 J" ~. N! q: Y; @6 o
towards the end of 2006.
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While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of8 A6 j3 J8 |2 t# m1 I6 _
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable6 P5 V3 h2 C# \7 l2 S
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
* j6 y! ?6 g5 G* fgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
: Y* ^: K5 w4 p4 h# ^4 vforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
. A$ v- u) k4 k. }3 o8 o H0 r- zpressure on tight inventory levels.
3 \3 }: W/ [4 H* J1 e
- y5 I" C4 a: H Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
; B2 g: r9 T# A% t; n Wfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people% o4 Z8 W3 h" z1 }# m, h3 V
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;/ H+ ]" x, a9 x. e
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching( d2 X" u9 r! u) D& j( M3 T( g
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
1 {" N$ |) @4 Q; o
$ @+ L2 }" k! R. S <<8 c$ E- M2 |' p: @, k
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
$ [5 f8 _ V( l. E! _
0 @& A1 k, E4 s# X2 n. D -------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 g" o3 o, F7 Q3 W% W Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey- l4 D$ _2 }3 C+ Y& @+ \ Q7 ?; I# \
-------------------------------------------------------------------------! Z( _- A6 Q- Q9 ^
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3: q. J( U0 c: o& Y) i
Market Average Average % Change Average Average
' b/ Y& q* X" P -------------------------------------------------------------------------
- o6 P8 I6 w6 w# e5 |! w/ Z, r Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000* q3 o3 a- n6 U8 t; W! ] q+ Y9 n' c
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ I$ @( `9 b' a( S Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000/ q6 L! r4 ^8 E! O4 N; x! @
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
) n: X0 D T5 ~* u+ W* R Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,0003 S. J/ v" W0 V- {" A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------6 ?- T) _3 `/ t; L1 I# n# t
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
8 N! o0 O: `: c/ m. Q+ l -------------------------------------------------------------------------4 @' ^2 w3 C i2 X
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
6 O9 v+ m+ n; a) z$ e- I& y" [ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# B1 {, n) i3 o Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583. m" ?5 K5 S$ a0 N/ c
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ f0 G( o' V9 ^6 ?: V# a% S Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
6 u( G+ a$ R$ V) V -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 E# g3 D) B8 d' c# G% v! m' [5 F
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250; n: e% `/ P5 v; s. t2 l$ U
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 w/ z+ o3 z4 h/ Z/ n' E Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766: ^; c& Y) q6 g; F% r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
, \: a/ N; @! Y2 Y6 |2 j8 r Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,7072 E" A# N9 `% q+ L% n: `/ n
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
! @& }& ~. J5 t; d5 R, I3 Z Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,5000 Q7 s8 Q2 {# o8 T
-------------------------------------------------------------------------) U% `! S; E @" |. x' z4 ]/ H
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
5 s, V0 i4 O0 S) H4 }8 G, L -------------------------------------------------------------------------, Z7 s8 Z C1 H( ~
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
; O. D( S+ ~ i) y' r -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# }8 v. C2 u! h. m2 ^6 {/ e) F Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
: y. s2 P) G3 r( V* R/ ^7 T5 e -------------------------------------------------------------------------5 {1 U: |# H& w% ]( r! a- D
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,0002 h/ O& ?; W7 n. C' X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ v- x/ H6 S1 V4 U3 E. e1 u National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
3 ?# k6 E3 Z% @# d& F -------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 p5 T9 x+ f! a8 J0 Y, b q0 U0 E6 \5 x6 n& p& A1 ^3 y4 F9 I
-------------------------------------------------------------/ O/ j- |9 _+ G# _8 L$ Q8 }
Standard Condominium
' u# L" A1 n$ A; T" v. X -------------------------------------------------------------. D8 C! k, X+ m1 G6 W5 s
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
7 r8 [: b# o- @ Market % Change Average Average % Change# o0 |) A! A- ~1 ?, J% g0 g
-------------------------------------------------------------1 l. q8 r2 I0 M/ q" V6 q: q6 Z
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%" u/ f3 k/ p7 B; V8 Y9 v2 d
-------------------------------------------------------------
& u' n- j2 r: i% R; r Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0% c- \& i+ J$ ]1 x" [: k& b+ z
-------------------------------------------------------------
, y" W' W; Q4 _. Z, K Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
2 \$ f8 @& W# M: U, A -------------------------------------------------------------. M! r2 ], D# Z) U( @9 \3 I
Saint John N/A - - N/A; c) f) G5 u* c5 ^# ~* r v
-------------------------------------------------------------
5 i/ l/ ?/ g& g) l4 l# s( M St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%# X) g5 x/ L! w6 l0 q
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 b* g6 b( w$ P3 x" E7 |. V6 G! ? Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%: u }( F2 ?6 E) M
------------------------------------------------------------- O. T. A3 B! I! G4 f! c: A
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%: `. g( B" x* D1 o
-------------------------------------------------------------
. ^7 d/ w1 Y* e' a- c4 C Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
G8 z' I& l+ {. ^1 b/ Y' T; y9 F, G -------------------------------------------------------------
! N, r5 \7 _! w+ q% v( k Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
1 k4 @4 b% e2 p, S9 { -------------------------------------------------------------
# }( ^3 {6 v8 a2 o% B( Q% U% \* ] Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%2 ]% q" Z# ]3 P+ V9 D" }& z T" i
-------------------------------------------------------------
, C+ m( t& V: [- K Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%( X& j. f+ r1 K# ^; T( l
-------------------------------------------------------------" \0 S! s# d$ P- \( _1 h3 F
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
8 Y$ v0 F4 n7 o7 j1 f( c: p ------------------------------------------------------------- t a" d/ y+ D) ]: @: V
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
( c1 y$ ~! ^4 [7 ] -------------------------------------------------------------
, X- E4 z2 u( U9 o( a) q Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%. ~6 \+ x) p1 U r& A
-------------------------------------------------------------
- |6 Q' F2 Z3 \: Q: V3 [+ A3 K Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%( S; t/ U3 Z, @/ h7 J
-------------------------------------------------------------. [6 J( M4 r( [: D
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%1 [* P# M. ~) f2 _, A" e
-------------------------------------------------------------: @$ n" V, {% o! ~! Z* `5 u' O
>>
9 }. f) R. G5 X5 l( U$ H. K. P( i" _2 F Z
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
% ~7 J B2 z' {4 fin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
x# R$ Z7 o" f. @. CJohn and Victoria.. N# u% W; {, N) |7 _/ F: n
b" u+ S0 {$ u6 g- C' G+ z7 w; V3 Q0 E The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
* g' S ?! L. d9 y; e \& ]1 Lcomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
* F# n9 n2 U# shousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release' _5 g: d) a5 g% ] h
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price0 o3 a+ N# c y! B6 `; N
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
' i+ N! b# c/ [! V- i& U5 Lacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is; Y8 h! |& a7 N; g* u: O, d
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
+ O- v; H6 `+ `- R7 x) Yfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
) t+ f3 q+ H1 Cversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on5 b! U2 g: u+ u# h! `
November 15, 2006.
5 ?3 m% Q, Z( U& F8 j( ]# w Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of6 E8 l& v, G1 u9 H, S7 h8 S
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
. q: h4 o2 w1 Vprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is3 k& `) |4 q( B+ p# A
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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