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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
3 a# g. `0 \' I2 O' A) o- X$ I' Y7 D# _% G* m. m3 M% S9 M
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -8 I$ K5 x2 V6 q p! O
" |3 U' |6 r: i) H0 Q; | TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
* E" x: B; [( P+ U3 Gexhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third0 T% o( F! J$ x- b% b
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
: `! a) b. W7 bin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
; h# R) D+ b# b0 O( h0 x! L4 ]% g3 h$ `price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and% M1 w. G+ X/ Q* u7 _
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
4 F9 V$ W- x6 T z Z: W( ~Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal3 [0 c' m; [7 S* R! p- O& R3 P
LePage Real Estate Services.$ v: R$ U2 h2 [& u0 N% v8 y
) Z) b5 }! A7 P4 s% |0 R
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
2 S' L# s) F# B9 k/ uare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic& d! Y$ m' f) _+ V4 V
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and- d5 f, q/ V; G2 k( v2 b9 M# Q
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the( N' L3 ~, [, J. A# g
residential real estate sector.
# X' N+ c+ x8 K, d( _; t; x2 n9 L$ q, W0 m7 Q& p/ x1 E+ {
Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation7 {+ M1 ] w. P
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
) i" v. i/ o* t9 z2 hyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
& O( X5 \8 G( L7 k1 w/ N(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,3809 }9 y3 ?& ^8 R* G: i5 ?: M3 C+ O* f
(+13.2%).
1 x5 L ~0 c) ~/ B4 S. w
# s( z5 `8 M7 W "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth% v. K* ?7 k7 L) t
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
, ?, T, G9 w1 Lfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are7 X! K2 f" O# z* c3 Z3 w4 |
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
: n5 T, M" x' |2 m9 npresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.' O" c1 B8 W0 ]- ~* g# L2 q
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We' p/ ]' J6 u7 A N$ V
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy4 l" ~# i+ e5 i) c% m- W) b
balanced market."! t- k' n/ e/ U. c* @
' M% s& a2 N1 M6 r* H) o/ ^9 [
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,9 z* m( Z. O0 H
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
' b9 P1 F8 Y" R" @- A0 b* ?to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
4 M3 J* D z; P/ h% {4 w# Xthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core6 b% p" v9 d+ l* x* O, z2 M
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
" T# c. z8 w$ K$ Y- C, gmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record `: c3 V5 n) M, o5 p$ ?
breaking price appreciations.2 {& u7 ?# R$ L' i
/ v5 X" v( o# e- r0 L7 _3 D Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding. g2 l3 f3 l! J n5 N. _( F# n
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the2 ?$ z" C, z$ O {
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.! ^: f5 ?6 }0 q* u7 ]6 Y) A; q
4 K* A- {# i; d7 w/ O In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid( g- l6 l2 B# @1 K) }$ T! R( @
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
3 u9 g, p% D2 f$ R" a4 I" Aconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
( N) {; W8 I$ W- t" F& rslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.( w! @9 c6 `. F4 b- D% \' H# F3 \
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
( [' [# c. d/ {4 vgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
% B! p* d" Y$ C* H% i6 F2 [price appreciation when compared with 2005.! Y/ J2 U+ R/ ~+ ^; A
/ F1 h4 S. L* [5 N6 B7 w While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
3 E. R- l3 F1 |. H+ `market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and3 e0 ^/ ]* W5 O
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada) p7 k9 H+ M* {1 G
are markedly different than those found in the United States.' c2 f8 A. V8 W6 Y
. ?4 X ~9 s6 b# R1 R; C
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
2 X8 Z$ x. L+ m# q) C6 rAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
8 {0 Z- m, C v) R( ?favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the$ ]# W) i1 @) V; E/ |# ~
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
# _) w$ \9 ~# d: `5 taffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
: s# S; V5 J4 x+ A) R9 y6 H6 Ydownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
* z% y; o4 E+ e0 Q, Z! zaggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
- u9 U5 t! }6 T6 Nmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."7 w0 k- V" j# Z6 {2 C
6 _: l" {! ]) T- c# w9 s" x
<<
% R8 J4 F. h u: l# l1 B3 t! O. o1 P( x0 J REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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. H& b, d( u- u: w! l1 s Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in/ t1 A" y! T) {$ t: H0 C- F5 I1 j
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate6 O' Q! B! m* d1 q% z. r, w
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time. s3 U& D9 x# c [$ U9 K0 U V
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
( V% R+ R. S3 B: c( P$ k; crenovations.) m" w8 X( q9 q9 @
9 ]: M5 x* ?( I% p x+ | The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
" C: ~7 I- Y* X. x6 W; wincrease in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation+ \0 O1 G' ]6 B; Q
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and- @- b1 y- _4 v8 ?% l5 N, k
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter. |3 K$ q" v& r+ k
/ [8 Y6 C# A' s: p
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
6 n# O5 ~6 H2 p* ^slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the. G' {# \+ y0 B
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
$ F1 Q: F0 }2 n* F: a/ a2 K r600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
$ H4 F# Z# ?2 a' m Q7 E2 O$ sto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
3 W! M4 \8 i+ }) a% }( [1 m9 Gand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.( g% X' n' B. ]7 W
! g" y+ T7 Z7 M" {3 M! b8 A In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
5 b$ L" M2 S) }& g5 \: v6 }conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
2 B- B( J: U/ S7 d( Q- l- v' Ohomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
" T" q* S0 B# P b- |( j. qwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
8 @5 V' g9 Q6 t+ Q: w) ydollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
. j0 P6 A4 ]# S, W% Hbuyers with more options when looking for a home.5 ]% ?3 h4 f6 Q
1 c, O, c+ ]# L$ O8 r/ y' T
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly0 v7 L5 P6 Q# e
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
! x* t# p) R. o# u7 E9 |1 tpriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,# y, ?- Z! J1 s2 T% `
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last6 }6 A1 d) o7 H7 [# N% t
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.0 C* i) n- A/ X1 V
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
, ^ w( K# B. @8 X4 u8 qprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
% u# `' o9 v( ]- h! h: E% s' E) ]1 qlevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
6 ?6 b$ J( h) S8 }0 B+ o8 B+ U: Q) A4 efirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
3 I' A6 j! ]4 a7 `/ Twhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
+ L2 G2 g- [! U/ i( R1 O) wpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
6 C2 i7 i: q' j" }8 Kmaking a purchase." o z3 K1 K- W) a" B9 l+ d
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Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
3 F% G/ x: `8 d" H G7 ]. @. d+ @markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
5 ?& Z$ h4 a: K4 c) Yconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
: S! n8 a6 j( Y" e9 p- Lcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting9 j# p+ E7 q) r2 M: Y- t
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown" R5 ~- E- ]: S
amenities.
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The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
# O m+ q2 [: C" Z6 I8 C! d) H/ @/ Ythroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand, G; O4 X, ^0 A( |2 N! J
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has+ Z/ v) t# S2 ~
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been; b( b5 y0 L- u$ D6 p
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
# T" D- w9 c: U5 G6 S8 sresidence, rather than for investment.7 B- Q) p4 v2 |- y
! n* V7 g, M) K- c* d
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as* j9 V: w0 S9 W" i- ^" I/ z
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
9 [' i( G1 W+ U) |9 N* Oin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
2 x+ U# C( p6 N3 {# xconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
4 A( l$ l7 j7 frate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter- K# p. Q, Y" y* w
the market., u. |$ t1 \3 |3 D2 P
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In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
4 M& O0 a. e. b+ D( fJuly, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In6 U/ o \) G7 n) |
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
. R1 t& b, K+ jmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
" }8 j& b1 R0 Bto the shortage of available inventory.: T. D$ v; V4 J0 \" Y
' u6 y5 T, m1 K2 [. I" s4 N
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its* d( U5 U8 m% A; K* E& T
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains( W* x; G7 _4 A( h; Q- h `3 S
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses; B, f0 v7 K: A+ }
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.. C. N5 z/ U$ K4 I8 Y* K+ }) `/ ^
3 o9 K# k. x% m- q
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
4 z) P" T2 T! ]in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
. P. d+ {- _$ _* \. @0 q5 C" P" X% \/ gunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that. s( P8 m; W; m" G
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring- \- v3 J- c0 k- E1 l
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer% E) d" l g5 |) m8 r/ l1 v
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as8 X( Y/ S7 a8 K, ]
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity./ t' x+ H& S0 s
! S4 p: F, l! N6 J; U; h Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter/ e. R- J0 c, \2 Y# q) X
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
/ X7 B+ i% U# N/ |3 J2 n% Q( ^remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
3 I3 K' _0 o5 ]$ [( u, l" cmaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices8 z" @' ~) Z& U. V* [
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve) |/ `( Q6 @, q- [5 I& _% C2 f
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
& j' D& |0 d4 l) }# x q5 e0 _towards the end of 2006. - y. n, h2 C9 G. `
+ K* n6 d$ |' f2 L2 n( o* JWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of$ v7 _ [& J5 p0 s& P+ Q- c1 L: X
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable( S. ?- G5 S8 s5 x# J! S/ U
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
, Y; A* x" s4 c# J) rgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to" |8 B" g0 t3 a+ \6 m( G
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
0 E% `) J. I. K. ] T2 L; g" N qpressure on tight inventory levels.$ p0 F6 P; D0 Z4 o
8 G, ~, k. I# S+ b/ S1 n4 q- H" G
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic) s+ j0 c" k0 E
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
5 Z& d+ V: ~# ~' `( O* K4 ?) Kinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
6 Y) L# W# Z( V+ [8 Iwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching/ m! T( m! ]! [) j
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
8 V" H, g- J/ H6 [; q* `1 w9 B G8 g: G1 S2 }5 B$ Z7 U- r- G
<<
" L/ }2 F: f$ s8 n Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
* ^$ I$ E9 E) g' A5 I t. \$ n$ |2 B5 D$ A" o$ K/ U0 a7 B
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
& ?/ e# _ P S& Z# i Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey" ]; @. D9 e3 b) G
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ z4 v0 B5 W4 _/ r2 y 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
: F% _, E/ J% B1 P Market Average Average % Change Average Average1 [( |# D P$ \, j3 l' y
-------------------------------------------------------------------------# `8 F# K& X2 {
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,0002 u. ?' J* l& w x1 ]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ g8 M$ b9 [, u* K Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
4 i$ H; o2 H. r, C4 } -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& G7 H* q+ m: h( F5 c% b1 H7 _# d ] Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,0003 d8 E+ Y9 R4 }1 Q
-------------------------------------------------------------------------6 }. V7 |. D) e( O
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -) @5 r& ^1 P9 X# o/ Q2 z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 O/ c4 T5 L5 i. I; Y St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
8 R3 L7 D: N2 A% y5 F6 S6 j -------------------------------------------------------------------------1 Q+ N8 K+ p% E4 V [
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
! F5 g5 p- N F; Y0 K g -------------------------------------------------------------------------' {0 q1 S# A8 X# c& a! k
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185+ Q/ h$ B# I# J. ~
------------------------------------------------------------------------- e( y- a" ?6 A5 j2 s# Y9 q7 l
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,2509 P* z# O, F& {& x( s) b
-------------------------------------------------------------------------3 w' A' O. S2 H
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
: h( ]1 w# n# E, K+ u" e -------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 ]* l- ]( k7 q# t* a9 l2 C6 c Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
- R- j- t/ d$ ^0 L; v/ f -------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 v; E$ z3 |5 z2 V& k Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500( F* W H/ B4 i$ j# L
-------------------------------------------------------------------------# \# B% U+ h: G) N9 S0 ]- Y
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,3890 g7 J E/ h- G
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- {/ D" A8 B3 j! |8 ~; e* A' g. O( [, _
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
; c8 f3 F/ {2 a- t* Z1 G7 Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------9 p/ c2 p; X$ u8 b) A
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500( e: `% F% O1 `( W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------9 ]9 f: R( v% u# w* v
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
( n! I# {" V( w) L -------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ D; q! ?) A5 g0 z National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
3 T8 P: l/ p6 k3 Y$ i6 |) P -------------------------------------------------------------------------( j5 E4 W! \' l2 i9 q3 ^ X3 h
- e: Q6 D3 G# Z4 w -------------------------------------------------------------5 w6 A2 m3 f- R$ T* v2 x
Standard Condominium
$ R) K v5 k, I5 A' m -------------------------------------------------------------+ L% x* o2 s6 X8 V) L4 W
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo4 @- m3 [3 ?& i3 Z. W; _
Market % Change Average Average % Change% Y# h6 Z: c+ F7 }8 Q
-------------------------------------------------------------
& X7 U4 j4 ?1 N, [- J) z8 t; `$ y b) \ Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
& \, A3 t. c7 x. ^6 Z; m4 ?1 M* J -------------------------------------------------------------
5 h5 r5 j) s. D0 \ Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
1 }8 g/ f: T( ] -------------------------------------------------------------
* ?* n- [, n. K# ^* k+ z6 ^ Moncton 4.9% - - N/A% j' O/ Z9 G' R* r
-------------------------------------------------------------
6 T4 A, ]/ ]. [$ A# ^$ T: \6 d Saint John N/A - - N/A. C+ f+ X# W' M5 n- j% j, V) f
-------------------------------------------------------------
2 j5 z/ w! |$ ` ~7 U8 d St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
+ |4 t a+ |( ?9 y( C# ` -------------------------------------------------------------9 Y c' Y: K7 Q/ ~9 c- }) e7 x
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
# d2 b* ~. S7 N -------------------------------------------------------------
: v+ |( u8 q) u& g Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
6 e' r1 k1 K; \ -------------------------------------------------------------
8 ~0 ? j$ j* X/ S. \! U Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
0 }# h9 L& _( o( L+ _' r -------------------------------------------------------------
, g; V1 j- o$ C2 U Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%& V5 b9 B8 J0 u* Q$ a3 f9 n
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 [- k" }7 c8 [. l Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%9 i+ K1 [2 G0 t
-------------------------------------------------------------
; n# S& z& g# v" W9 r Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%8 @4 q4 c: }( o! P+ i# r
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 h1 ^0 W: i" n' n/ j. T Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%* A$ J) V" Y: s) b
-------------------------------------------------------------2 C2 N- m/ J8 i3 [5 { Z
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%0 _4 x3 o" `0 L z$ R& J! J
------------------------------------------------------------- @. ~7 F* B" c. x4 Y
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%% M' l) ~4 ?; Q# X, t/ Z
-------------------------------------------------------------% l% P" c# @' X& b! ~ @
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
. f5 \: J9 a3 {3 b2 w& D$ v -------------------------------------------------------------6 u$ I# \: r1 W0 D7 R
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
0 K8 b0 c, ^+ e -------------------------------------------------------------
) U' C, \$ ~9 M >>5 c' D. @9 D0 _( C. P
+ L( K/ c+ Z7 b5 V9 Y
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined/ Y0 A2 Z: A; p0 R; X7 F1 ~9 V; q8 v" m
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint9 G* y: ?0 \& b f* Z) Z: S; S
John and Victoria./ V8 Y9 @( y8 s# n$ L L* g3 P
7 L. Y, x- n$ d! M3 J) T4 _5 u) x The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most! a) s8 F0 e& T# k2 l* r
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of, F. C2 [+ D/ W. j7 e
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
# ^9 \- ?5 S7 ~8 _/ Hreferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price( y/ `1 W) [. Q6 J0 d
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities: m- T" I/ U& D; A: c h
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is4 _) G- V, b6 b3 v: e0 ^
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
) M( i- h; ~& l# v+ yfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable1 G; K) y z9 q8 C
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on3 p) Q2 C) l- R+ d( r% ^' X0 p
November 15, 2006.3 Y; |. i, x o+ K% _! d8 q
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of6 m- d3 b; B* M0 h6 a+ C
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
$ W# q, d+ s# h( B2 U3 Xprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
' a* H8 n# a' K# x9 javailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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