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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable ( B! t0 r* h5 h
7 |0 |7 r1 N- f- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
# X7 ^, s6 |3 l \5 O' [0 Q; m6 P; i \
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market! I3 [" y5 M! q& R2 G$ y7 y: O
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third+ H1 M5 p2 z! E8 m! V9 u
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic, q" I1 j Q2 V/ @- }
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
2 Y$ {) r- o6 g# F( g+ Cprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and, o0 ?" E3 T6 m" I
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
. y% p- r! b( r h2 mQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal/ t5 |2 ~5 x3 w
LePage Real Estate Services.7 R8 F7 J( j- |) Q k0 B
; E7 Q& J( y/ T2 i Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
0 k9 w& Y4 A3 `! Care forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic2 R4 n; H$ C0 j9 M G. v: i8 o
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
3 }4 b9 z% ?+ r2 ?) csound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
# o6 k# f! P+ i6 C6 X! S+ Oresidential real estate sector.
' o# h3 n# l% p- f1 h. L
5 @4 D3 T, y; h, _% I8 L Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation! E9 J) S( X- U& T
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
9 [8 S9 Z$ L U4 s& |+ R, `year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,5628 g2 o* l+ W9 i" ]6 f
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
5 v" m. v8 [' I9 R) t$ h1 M(+13.2%).1 q1 N E2 L2 A+ \
5 j( c/ b) L& j- Z+ Y "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth9 h1 U: K C B& B" e$ k. N# C
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
- b& I8 k5 o0 L) L2 t# M3 d; pfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are# Q8 B, C; N/ y" w5 [+ i4 H! J) a
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,/ E0 r2 e; M3 F( f( m
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
- a" u! a0 U5 i0 t"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
* P& f7 W: z) k# D' Mwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy. s: G. L- q% w
balanced market."
; E* l/ n& }( d- S0 H
# m( @9 @) u0 L8 ]- T* _ Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
7 `+ A/ F) ]: G' A" jconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
r% e7 o# r$ S! ^1 ~+ f6 Eto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
" B: C [1 S" g. f: u2 u0 Z, a7 wthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
) Q/ a) B7 \4 Z/ I6 cenergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,8 ]# o5 C& h4 N) ]* `- G1 @- P: H
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
! s ~# j9 q/ \0 _; N- M E% A/ pbreaking price appreciations." e% n2 N! ]1 \+ m* n/ L0 O
/ U2 e( g' B A" N
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding, v8 p) U( _1 ~! H7 h+ h/ `
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
& k. l. o5 D) u& Ulargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.& I0 |$ Y0 k( X! l: _" k* m: x
' s! H" D* q- {9 O7 j6 W$ K$ [
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid9 N2 }- }* e. i! \' `& V1 N
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer& q/ ~6 \/ Q, H7 u
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
& s9 d. o' `+ O3 Cslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.# B- S8 \) W }! C7 V
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
0 y! J) V0 g+ x! L$ Q0 Bgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
^. y9 Z- T5 L& N( T, _+ Xprice appreciation when compared with 2005.3 |* T9 J5 O4 H S
* A# F, n) N! C1 I$ z5 g While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing0 o& r% I+ }* N
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and$ i9 m5 j$ ~; \; L
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
( |) |/ [; O5 Xare markedly different than those found in the United States.
6 O: b( U6 p$ G6 B' j; f+ f! N# @/ [- X: e) Q: E c7 f, s
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
% X/ Z* ]$ `* Z# m- TAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's3 B* J6 \ N! Q5 ~
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
: X9 _3 s; n% `; R6 x% Frelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
4 f5 D4 e, O5 d4 s( Taffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the% W2 r) o8 a2 h: K. P, z
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
8 @3 N! T: d( ~+ k& P; N8 Laggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
9 b- M: Q) I* }( Y; E: J1 J" Imortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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<<
6 X7 @8 f/ J+ F2 i# T REGIONAL SUMMARIES
2 s3 U3 ]5 k$ l( b& B# c& m >>. u, g3 B, W- d# r3 [' y& p1 C
8 r! ~, ~# z* O0 J p$ t, }5 v7 r+ t
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
9 m' w- O- b: |- l8 OHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate9 Y6 F2 ^$ L) c
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time* ?, }5 \& `+ f/ p* w, K1 E1 G
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of; E) L! S3 `; x% D
renovations.7 D0 M3 w( C0 ~$ K* k
: I. j+ T _9 m5 b9 R! T The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
. E" Y% U% O1 j. p8 {5 \increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
& k( w2 J/ d3 N' m7 ]compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and) J/ l# A5 D' {) u. w
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
8 T3 N0 `3 a# d7 I7 x+ D- o
+ j' l2 C$ o: O6 y0 B8 u8 j2 L The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
. c4 a0 W" }9 K4 c$ A. {0 d5 }slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
( _4 p' j; E' E6 A% Aquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new" P9 f% D, j% k7 I
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores& j5 B# L" }: I p+ w* _
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
5 j: P" y) M4 Y6 J0 Tand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
/ r# @, f7 W) c$ C3 {% H! l" f4 V1 y" J5 X
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
( i% a, d+ m1 V( @- pconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
+ f) g, |& q& X5 Fhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
$ P; C/ Y' ^' Bwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
# r! [5 ?# j5 x+ Y$ n7 M' T1 C- gdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
. e# G8 L5 {( qbuyers with more options when looking for a home.6 f g9 t% S3 b Q- x: b% S+ G) ]: m
) T" f" B2 D3 }5 ]- M
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
$ B1 V: V' P9 _( x4 Y9 Qamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes d$ C c$ X8 [# x2 k0 I; |* C
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,, W: N" ?0 G! O4 C
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
+ T8 A1 p6 _$ o7 a5 @( J5 I. wfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.% E2 {2 l Y0 v K. W6 g+ i+ T
, Q% Z6 E9 \' p0 h" ^
Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house5 S3 c9 J7 w' \$ e+ T0 @ Q8 ^( ^
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
% j' z7 ^# o4 z$ klevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
7 H Z p) h- z4 H7 S/ d6 h3 M- Hfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
8 k0 c- r l V- \9 vwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the& E m0 r; Y1 {' S
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
8 `# v0 {# ~+ D$ i+ [making a purchase., N2 V H2 F* t+ y6 a
% T/ O7 o5 i4 o$ |) Q6 _; }
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
( Q- j/ r) u7 Z U0 Lmarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
- U1 |4 ]7 H; A+ k/ lconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
0 n' U: S* l# d4 a. A5 O% h7 ]centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
5 u4 I e4 d, s( N1 o \+ @, t7 Battention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
) v$ H' {0 o$ \$ @/ K% Q' C+ `amenities.. n1 ?$ b; t3 B5 u4 Q) y/ {, x
0 k$ S i T. [$ O! w |6 W) r m
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
: }) h4 U8 t& h% c/ z1 c+ z% K3 Bthroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand2 F: h i" J# U% ^% F! o$ j
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has& ~' Y! ]' O3 F8 I( F- J
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
4 z8 o9 O1 l0 Udriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
! K! d$ T" X& ]! H- }/ ^* Hresidence, rather than for investment.
' J8 e! j" [" o% C% u7 t1 H3 n' O" e
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as# c' M- F, ], h) A& j. w
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted8 \# E2 N3 ^8 L+ n x
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer# H7 D3 Q, S3 }3 I+ y9 m( u
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
9 z% N% G1 H4 n$ L0 E( crate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
6 c" ^$ N( y& c: Z: Wthe market.
4 _' n0 h" s# B) c- u4 Z0 F
/ u1 U7 u! Q; O ~0 i In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through9 j& ~. g& ~( J
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In0 J3 E3 u+ i) Q& w" T. M& r8 r
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring) d( U- _3 A$ f( ?% t! e/ w% e
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due5 U: N0 g* ?' w/ Q9 c
to the shortage of available inventory.
$ a% Y! @* j9 ~0 |) T4 V& [4 Q& e; H. d8 Z. i, N8 _
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
6 j {, {7 Q8 ? e" imomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains4 x/ [3 ^- N- N4 i
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses; s7 A/ \+ W, R9 ^
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.5 J" U0 M. D6 j$ M( l6 H
! ^$ w8 I1 I( I" u) ?# f
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases+ h6 \$ n) E Q0 B- z
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low9 P4 [2 ~6 h. a% N$ \8 p
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that9 r/ b* J9 V# I. |
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
" u: C _6 k1 X6 I: Vprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer6 j/ ?9 s c2 U3 _3 M/ g! @
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as, E. u0 c( n- ^; S7 t0 O
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.4 W1 K* s- N. |' j
4 \: \4 s- i6 r Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter5 B4 H& f" {7 u
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton# o# c! ^6 r" t1 O3 B
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,8 ?# W* T! |! p5 m1 U, N
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices. O3 V8 R$ t1 a2 b: D6 v
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
) x; M R9 b. k' @in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly& O' C" X& [0 W L+ P
towards the end of 2006. . m3 d3 x, n- L$ Z% ~. c/ b
) t+ C/ l3 w$ d5 P( ]
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
2 W- Z; w9 [7 I( J3 t( Ginventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
% L8 _9 u5 v) [3 d) |6 V2 P& t |to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
' @) d ~' l' `" Ygroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
% O1 y7 d) v7 x j( Z( f: \; Uforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added0 P7 l8 Z7 u! p3 P6 \( U3 q
pressure on tight inventory levels.
( s" u4 Y ]4 V% x3 \, o# E0 Q* c( E% t% q" E
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic3 i* |$ @$ B4 z* g
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
- D0 A8 r; t N& y* `into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;. @4 i" |) L+ b) K" ]4 t+ \3 c3 W
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching, E/ ?3 p5 d5 V0 O& ^/ S
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.: B) r) @+ B6 k5 D5 v. T( C+ ^
8 I& L( C9 @& Z- L. x8 m t- X8 B
<<! }. K1 ?. e( v4 ?
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006; _" ~7 x; q* }3 O" F2 y
# r# A: v) N& V1 W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ _6 P1 o$ u1 I: J Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey2 z; H0 j" V0 F/ F# A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------3 Z; k; w' z& }
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3) @4 h9 O! E* c2 d
Market Average Average % Change Average Average
* Q5 H% q8 |2 Y1 t* k2 Z -------------------------------------------------------------------------1 U5 \! s5 k5 q/ j4 X
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
% z2 m# n4 v T9 Q9 n -------------------------------------------------------------------------
! ]. ^8 O' U4 V; J m0 w Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
2 C" s, j( f3 p2 V, ^ -------------------------------------------------------------------------8 {6 |, V) ^ n8 C
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
" I; V3 |" R, p- I -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 c" O7 t4 W5 w8 \; p
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -) q3 L! c: _. O. t
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
# {4 b* l1 J$ F4 q2 f St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333) ^) _+ c# Y4 s- ~+ |8 y3 Y2 {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------, s* H4 u9 z! W3 U1 Z; h
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
0 n/ V6 e$ v4 H% Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------/ k) q1 u# N( }/ x% L# b* V3 w
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185+ @ r: F4 y, y6 v
-------------------------------------------------------------------------8 m3 s3 i0 A4 M8 P% m# i
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
! `1 h, u2 s. T# c% g1 }3 a( _ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
: |+ q5 p2 V: P: V8 H& W, ` Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766# r$ d2 N- j* l7 \6 |8 W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
! T+ W1 [4 M4 X3 A1 g, o [: l; n Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707$ {9 A! P$ E$ [" H$ ^
-------------------------------------------------------------------------: L1 u* _; V: S
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500/ I; A; N. b, p4 _8 k' a
-------------------------------------------------------------------------% [1 p; h! z$ c/ i& N Y8 C/ K3 V5 r' Q
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
5 {& w( o. E: l. w -------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 i' S, S+ ~$ X4 k7 ~" B* o Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
( x3 S% N+ d7 @3 P5 S8 t2 F* s+ m# ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* w5 r* E% u2 H; n0 g Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
9 V) f- y" D1 w. q: _ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
! F4 C {2 R1 ?4 h Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000* a4 r+ f0 w/ O# [6 p: f0 U
-------------------------------------------------------------------------/ I) x) z5 d4 k# u, C; z B
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
. E) W x, a7 w8 S! i. } -------------------------------------------------------------------------
% q* v6 y& C1 n% g h- U9 b$ c( p3 {9 a \! r: y0 Q
-------------------------------------------------------------1 Q+ f. ?. F/ R
Standard Condominium
$ C. g* x: @# d4 _) W M -------------------------------------------------------------. p* @+ c4 D3 k6 b/ m
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
8 e X- J c4 k. n1 B* h- G8 y, a, ? Market % Change Average Average % Change0 F, o, ~8 R+ B+ ]# ]
-------------------------------------------------------------
! y* i& V7 K. E& n5 t, c Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%# j8 ?% ?* L" G3 `' O- ]
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 c) W" L$ p! v3 F3 B' E Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
( Y: N r5 n! h; D+ d; [ -------------------------------------------------------------
* _' ]% s% R- x" [1 W Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
1 t4 s& }* P( [ h# c -------------------------------------------------------------- w5 }3 y+ W ?6 X. @4 s, r4 e
Saint John N/A - - N/A
* A* X& |, G% B: C -------------------------------------------------------------5 S6 l- x2 H# s. a' Q
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
$ S/ G: Q, v1 x4 h8 c! K: c -------------------------------------------------------------8 ~! r1 Q. Q, S' G% ]) j! q1 x
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%) T* z: t0 m! ~/ J# T/ u
-------------------------------------------------------------
& p9 M! f% F1 M1 g! q+ d Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%4 y# L- `, ]7 O& j
-------------------------------------------------------------
) F9 G; \% K$ k+ o2 Y Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%" z; X# ^4 S+ d% b* C6 o" d- ~
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 t3 L/ n' E$ B1 s& W" [6 v) M2 E Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%0 F" i$ A# v$ P
-------------------------------------------------------------
0 m& K) k* L) f- u- w& P, o Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%- K0 ~1 P: A! S1 a2 @! H6 ?
-------------------------------------------------------------9 a2 `; |! l& S8 E, r {& N
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
$ H, ~5 {! T( E8 n8 ] -------------------------------------------------------------' V6 H& W4 C/ m% n
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
4 j: L$ s3 s/ {, ? -------------------------------------------------------------
1 W- J$ ]+ C4 s; A& U8 w R Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%* z5 E8 y8 g0 B
-------------------------------------------------------------- h1 {) @( z" X. ^$ _
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%( j i. n6 _ W: D s: G
-------------------------------------------------------------
( T, d. h) b) J( F! W. F9 P: u Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
9 z) L4 o2 j; Z& p# r -------------------------------------------------------------) n9 }: w8 Q- A* l) _2 J- n
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%$ J* u; F- O1 r" a: C8 _
-------------------------------------------------------------
5 x1 W2 v( ]1 h2 w. c2 T >>
. e; j0 z3 m' v; W7 ?. }2 e. d" A7 r2 m6 ^. f1 c3 v& Q# Q4 e
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
! P2 b* ]4 o) L3 N2 c6 Xin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
$ x) R5 j' Y+ QJohn and Victoria.
+ E5 l$ ]& N5 B- }
7 E( X' P& s# U1 m/ n3 d' N$ _ The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
t+ }' W6 ^( C; R4 H2 q9 i+ [( gcomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
& M9 ?: e7 X# M6 X; D# `6 Rhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release0 M1 d) u- w, x
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
5 \ i) \4 F m6 @: D. R1 @7 ?. c' \trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
+ K) T `5 m5 e+ Xacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
0 v5 Y: E- q( }: X! L: \available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current4 \+ i* ~: u* M2 A
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable, v0 X% X1 _# t* b+ @ |
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
! q( _( A+ U1 K3 Y7 |# Y% INovember 15, 2006.% m" f* T9 U7 d6 k! G9 L3 @
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
6 D, B" ]$ U( `/ dfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge2 o! @5 |" [7 q) c4 i/ V
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is& T+ N5 X5 W9 u/ q
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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