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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable * |* U. `* ?: y3 p: i# u; N: Y/ n9 k
2 \; A v, w8 ~# g: F" N
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -) G+ w8 C7 V2 j7 t' d
& r$ U" T1 C- m! V2 ?
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market7 p/ r/ k4 X; K% D+ R
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
, ^) b1 h( ~1 A3 X4 |* Dquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
/ f" R( p) Z( _ n Tin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit; S0 W# {+ J( c3 |6 n+ M
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and4 {1 b6 m3 h5 v+ M* }: t
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,9 |6 S& A6 j7 U* G" j6 B% ^
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
- W5 |. G/ s8 xLePage Real Estate Services.$ X$ E: y2 j& j! m8 u9 I5 Z7 r
2 Q6 t0 U1 Y {- { e1 | Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters/ p6 j$ \3 V! e; ?7 E
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
* ~# u" J% e" gconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and2 Z# J3 c& Z2 Q q: P
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
) i4 H7 U P% G" H9 o9 S6 Lresidential real estate sector.4 b% R# A% k1 G2 i6 Z1 N0 H' c
5 y+ K0 h3 f5 c; v Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation0 J3 y A' d/ g, K
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%); L& L3 I' O1 d" f( X) E2 x; N
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
1 k; }& r: y* M: a- X/ S(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
: r7 W7 c; k/ y7 p4 P(+13.2%).2 Z, l0 w" _. y m" |( ?" a# {
2 E9 A; p# l2 e- A! z; g "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth# F/ H3 T% T- m3 F* E. J0 ~1 O
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
: F' {5 F0 \7 V! e7 Dfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are0 D" a, Q! I# h- K o
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
0 s9 C. s$ U! \7 ~8 \& tpresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.2 C3 h: Q* E ~' u+ x; h8 q
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We* `6 y: I9 D* x% \5 k% s
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy) b+ o! r) m# m+ V$ e% u5 g% l
balanced market."
0 e! v3 P: l9 o0 r; y9 S1 `, Q8 `
/ x7 X- I5 J4 v" x Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
4 V( ]+ |1 ^) M5 h) Nconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
4 f6 C+ ^- B" v5 k' ]! X" `to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
2 l2 o0 ]6 G' B- P& \throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
+ ~1 R3 \4 L9 N# ?8 C1 Denergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,' e' D. F# u' l1 w" o" t
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record. x4 p( f( m. S* d/ D
breaking price appreciations., P! ^% Q& h9 y- ^0 X; S
; F0 t9 ^( h" s% K' p. e" N- ` Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
' j* ? A- p, I* z! veconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the8 i) z6 D) f. ~2 u7 f+ `3 D: u
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed. |6 o* S4 n" }, l' l' [
( L& B& X; V' c3 c: O, E0 K In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid6 g2 h: Y' s, `5 C" n
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer% y" N" t6 Q* P% @/ a
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
- \: L9 B& v' ?5 J' h* Islightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
4 |* f0 @- @$ P: T: t! G0 j {In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
3 B- `& F1 \( n" j, A' v9 n- b% H7 ^greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
) l0 y+ n/ N% z0 y) A& \price appreciation when compared with 2005.
4 | q8 M5 r& T/ S% R {9 \: M0 t0 u& m2 V0 r4 K" @# Q! P' t. S
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
+ v( u0 R9 y0 ~market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and w0 e8 x ]5 s j$ m/ P5 q& w
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
# N, f+ i, s, u/ k( f& v0 P( dare markedly different than those found in the United States.
) ?! C ]7 s+ X, ?% e/ [
3 }' i- x: r/ d; L0 \. e Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the7 X# h. s( m2 L; \
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
. j2 S; t0 a N9 Y* i wfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
( L5 x( @4 V; n. j/ p, b7 ?relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
* T7 s7 U& \$ o; R- O Saffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the2 K# i# \$ q1 k
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and; l* I! n* I' v# a
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
8 j# w8 N/ r8 O" A3 _8 W$ Dmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
* q( C$ L, S( {; T! Z) U; r$ n! p* x- Z; `
<<7 V( b* [- [. |
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
) V: b4 s3 _7 u) q$ b. K# Z >>- e) N' \" V$ x; {9 h: t
, P3 R9 l" V, c# [
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in+ }" z# `: F* |2 ]
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
+ A+ ?- l" P6 |6 i6 nof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time/ g; K9 v$ Y, Y# | p
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
( |1 {; Y2 \! D% r2 c) ?$ xrenovations.
+ ~; g) M! x* t: P+ L! E: P+ S. o1 _! m* H
4 Z4 i8 c, X3 Q. V The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
7 F& `5 P0 ?" n6 @/ Sincrease in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation" w) l! F b+ h! Z
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and/ f2 o0 f* h4 x$ O. v# G: Z
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
7 R: ~; ?8 `2 V6 n3 N+ Q
$ } O6 F2 n' N9 M! h& T* P The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer! Y7 P) p. g: X+ f
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
! r% e3 l" h% R. D9 _quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new7 e X( U% a4 n
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores* ^/ l T( q( g* V
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes/ s* Q" z" i+ H# ~
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
1 i+ E+ |2 y$ C2 l" @! {. t
: [2 H7 n5 K" E1 f% I2 L; a In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
. o. ]" L! E' a$ L) oconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
1 R0 l) `& N3 \homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
1 B: M# R5 [2 H# o( M/ \* @/ mwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
' o$ h2 y$ z5 O( ]$ Xdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing% f- J4 ^& t9 J
buyers with more options when looking for a home.
* l. P! T/ U9 P& j: ~1 I* }/ G
0 Q: n. ], i! j Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
4 ]& q+ H) p0 T o3 Tamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
" Y S w9 }6 H% Upriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
) J- ]$ t- p$ c! G0 A3 Zas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
, ?7 U( S Q' F+ }. [few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
' g) h/ {, G2 k e1 J; _- X1 f9 Y4 [5 Q* R# W
Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house, C9 M# K B( q1 G
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
3 R! h9 l- e0 ]6 u9 {/ [! h1 olevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
& A8 ?' J6 i& _first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,' q6 H( F. g0 T8 J/ b! T2 E* z
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the& B [3 @ b" h9 h$ l
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before/ _% B# B% f+ Y* I- S
making a purchase.
; b5 G+ P2 i! h/ m3 D& G! H
" L$ k" [! @( F4 d0 X Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing$ o, d5 u4 u' }+ H% p
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong! H5 y' A7 E1 ?; l: `- S9 K
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city: G/ r& y* X) \# Y i
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
0 {, p& v8 {4 h5 D* E, Nattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
; y' W* `9 D" \amenities.
% N9 }% {/ P& S6 T/ I" p e! U
: P! y% Y: f5 ^* C( w The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
) j3 r8 v/ h( @: h0 Ethroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand, Q. u% }: c" g3 [. B, G
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
; D% j5 L. w6 gcontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
! _- n* H& z% G- y udriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
" ^8 P: p. J0 Yresidence, rather than for investment.
2 m ]) p0 q. v: y M d4 w+ T$ K( H" p9 ~7 J$ [
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
/ |# g1 Z! V$ M8 Xhouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted8 Z7 j. g3 t: U
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer5 v1 ^# H3 ]- a% \; p4 ^) N' @/ W
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
& s1 e( L3 y5 Xrate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter4 h2 X$ Q1 f8 g6 u' _% ^9 ~
the market.
q% W. r0 N& W* h7 @3 b; H3 @/ n8 ^1 o3 C, @3 r
In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
( k" J; v, z# `# f \# {9 W( nJuly, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
7 W" `: [! r8 w$ z* {August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
/ g2 S' m8 |, ]9 U5 ymonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due; g# \* k7 l. F) U, z A, g
to the shortage of available inventory.* s {8 Q! o6 ]# t, ]& n) s1 [( O
( L6 w. R+ j% N, r
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
8 M3 s; u2 Y/ t2 G4 U8 A1 c$ W+ D2 Jmomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
' {4 a" {! _+ ~ K5 Z5 B; F+ pvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses0 ^! ]0 ~, W# V" m; E
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.2 Z0 [; w+ J; g/ ~6 h
- x8 ]; }% w x- T/ s" G% e. O* o
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
5 U: Y( \2 e7 C& ^# vin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
2 O) N z+ X q9 zunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
3 o! F. E% \) p; n# |' i) [! _pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
; m: C/ v0 b4 w4 dprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer6 g& [( {% L2 J
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as% @ R% x7 K4 h- U: c
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
" k$ C$ a2 b! N8 h9 L. ?8 q% \, `0 J2 I
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter+ k: ]( K2 f2 Z' c1 A0 m
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
& v" s7 ^$ W4 d# y& o4 G3 tremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,- E; V9 n- z4 k4 ?" [7 F7 J
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices% b- @( ^3 V" { A6 f; Q! ?
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve7 y8 \$ m" ^* l( F- E( ]# ^; H z
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
3 C; x# `* b7 m# c, o. Wtowards the end of 2006.
! c" n2 t# Y. T5 N u. J* ^
) x6 A. D# R9 LWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
: t0 f4 z. R P, t* c& q( D7 qinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
% O! f* q2 {( X" d: ]3 l* nto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse7 f+ M# A# |& o, d0 k$ \2 V
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
* |# k- B; U2 V* ]( Fforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added, e' F- P- p/ C6 F3 U, [
pressure on tight inventory levels.5 Z) B' u2 d Y9 N# z' K" j) U a0 G
6 @, L+ O0 W: ^; G$ g" b6 z Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic9 j" I9 z& Z- a+ @ g
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
5 I& z% y" g. C5 T2 {! @" T" Finto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;8 B" I, g/ W# W- r0 C
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
% b [; H, v ~+ mfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
1 W: ~& i- b$ X* Q9 d: N+ y
0 b$ s8 E) {) s9 d9 ~ <<
% C9 c% P# `* t) S* N* C2 g% b- t Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006( E; ~+ ^( H6 [) }
# y$ K' F! s7 g( q; R
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
. A1 p: [) B9 a$ b! i7 O, I9 ?1 E Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
2 b7 H* g( \) l1 ?6 T* ] -------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 S% z0 `# I6 f$ [ 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
8 K& ^1 f& M8 k' p: A% C3 H Market Average Average % Change Average Average( x4 ?5 c4 D& v) X# j; ]# t( E. ]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------6 o1 l, U" T6 K' Z1 s2 X
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
; [, a* \8 @# f -------------------------------------------------------------------------
) M& q; b$ O% }6 }6 Z- U) { Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,0003 _% D: }* L( u6 |& |! a
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
& y; v- K5 s4 N) l6 K5 ? Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
3 W. L; y, S" ~; J+ Q& y' J -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& J2 u1 M! |) Y& M" l Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
7 s6 I2 s, f( r: Y \, d: G7 `7 G% V -------------------------------------------------------------------------. \5 ~) _) Z7 N4 J
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333: G$ K' a& k% `" c& N5 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 e0 B3 s8 @* ]' l# c# }& n Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
- {( j7 N5 o( C1 m9 K" q* p -------------------------------------------------------------------------, P9 Z" r# Q2 U! o
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
$ A8 {2 {2 R! y6 ]; B( c/ H -------------------------------------------------------------------------
% X2 k/ O, @+ ^6 x) f; c0 h$ D Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250" j) z7 d/ g0 l. d/ ~ L
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 ~8 T" u# v& D6 V/ }+ B& A Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,7669 o* M" W$ u" P+ q: }
-------------------------------------------------------------------------/ y+ k2 M3 A, V- G: t' a0 S
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
3 Y6 ~ `/ T4 X) j5 b+ ?0 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 @( l c E/ B8 U$ Y& k2 x2 u2 S Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500* N, H$ m4 w4 ?' r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------5 e" n: Y: q; J' o' G: V6 c) k
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
+ U- j& E+ E" I3 r9 q- c -------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 l/ ]7 c( d! D4 A# J) E Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
& ]& W$ S" J. M* Q: d -------------------------------------------------------------------------, n- U( u2 Z6 F/ A R8 s
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
+ _' N& a: u! l3 k* c6 U -------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ V B, y' `# e0 W8 M5 X0 F Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000' s# T, R" n1 C
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ O, h$ S4 N) ^ n% k0 n! A& l; J National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
1 }: T$ W) K6 M6 |8 m5 h- B -------------------------------------------------------------------------# y j% k+ _. C" V
$ n" J# u. E& G# @
-------------------------------------------------------------9 N+ f# L4 Z; T8 v
Standard Condominium; \+ f$ q; S8 d. D( ^1 p7 V
-------------------------------------------------------------" B) Q, f% Z. U; e
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo8 P' J/ g1 J6 i5 o* r
Market % Change Average Average % Change
) b5 w; I+ p* E; [ -------------------------------------------------------------8 T" v, [6 _) z F/ K: j3 D' {, }3 L
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%: Z- D* k( W: f7 X3 [8 M+ t
-------------------------------------------------------------
f% B4 Z7 d T8 q. \; x Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%. g* X6 g* _" Q9 B! L6 [
-------------------------------------------------------------
- t G# G5 _/ r: s# [) h4 M Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
# i4 J- m7 T& A6 c2 L+ @ -------------------------------------------------------------
. B$ c% T/ }- _' [9 f/ m Saint John N/A - - N/A
: O( b. G- k+ `- ]7 j$ @! r -------------------------------------------------------------
4 z3 p' D% a ^0 T# f St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%3 [: @- R& B3 Q8 ]9 Q4 i
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 {5 j1 V+ w6 v1 M6 g Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
7 o- w% e- W; t; |$ A# g -------------------------------------------------------------
- x4 L5 o" V* b" a4 o7 Y! R1 w Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%1 o9 E9 \/ {+ Q* f' i
-------------------------------------------------------------; N( }; ]; a5 v
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%; m2 t6 l. n* t
-------------------------------------------------------------( m* k* ?" H$ H
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%" O- E( u4 u# P
-------------------------------------------------------------% k1 ]5 }6 e1 k
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
5 L2 Z/ u8 f0 n/ | -------------------------------------------------------------
4 c6 E: l9 u7 i Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%+ \. o* ~' {! E( Z
-------------------------------------------------------------% R g+ k ?7 _ L% k8 t; p) o
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
# B8 }" p( A. {3 |0 l* M# P -------------------------------------------------------------
. _0 O0 \4 b; Q ` m; u Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%, c8 Z$ U( F, e5 v) M. \
-------------------------------------------------------------
, R, r0 a) i- m& l- L Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%' `& V( i: w: d' |: o/ `. c, F2 P' u
-------------------------------------------------------------# G& j: p' Q$ i& h Y# V% j
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
, `/ w2 J2 e4 s! { -------------------------------------------------------------: S) W+ R j# k" s0 v- U; G
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%4 W% {4 E# ~% _: r
-------------------------------------------------------------( o- e, G1 q* P1 E: a+ j0 I
>>( M3 v( p) \9 Y, @- M
) V! e+ r' E7 |7 f) o! G! B4 } Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined ]8 b ~3 ^/ u; d+ r: g- `* g
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
1 a% r0 h; Q; h6 n. X& zJohn and Victoria.
8 A# j/ }) l# M. `, d% ^8 a: [$ k3 P% b& O
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most* f( _# }9 h; t' W2 J6 E
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of+ R, p" u- v& y% b/ M
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release0 O+ x, N8 E5 Q1 m3 m
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price! y: I% K/ O/ v( A$ ^
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
9 Q( V+ h7 q6 r& V: E' K6 |) bacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is# q# a. G7 l/ W9 J' H* N! u
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current" ]3 P1 k" L8 r# a! B
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
- `- S" d0 ~1 d) [5 eversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on6 {+ `7 J8 C9 A9 }) E3 b! K; Y
November 15, 2006.) a8 k7 x, o# ]# V' \1 v9 A$ {
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
2 b; w# ~# [2 x3 Q2 ^0 Wfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
, k) y7 o6 X0 j/ |/ P/ Eprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is+ G5 K- F4 D- p
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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