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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
6 b: ?% K. M; v1 V
% v" ~! H* M j3 N& N- U- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -- [- g" _0 j) e1 d
6 k6 h: D+ i+ h! L$ [8 X! K
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
( a a1 x8 q& M+ S) `exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
/ ] G" X, n: N8 Fquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
2 u# m8 z: {$ N) h, y J* Bin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
5 _* x. P1 D6 w* N" F h1 |/ t( Rprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
5 O) c$ o" d5 S( |# kmore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
/ m* r/ H& q8 B3 ^' ^/ o+ t* B/ IQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
2 J- L5 h' O$ n& K$ p% XLePage Real Estate Services.
- r" m2 V- f0 g2 f) P7 F7 J& ~
7 C$ e* h- a9 t& b+ Y } Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters( m. h- g5 e6 T/ L% i% F1 D
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
' E2 j1 n* e6 q( Tconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and' {$ _; k. }9 C- X/ y3 s! ^& v
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
3 {5 {$ t8 q* a- f* presidential real estate sector." Y& ]1 o8 a& q+ N( M
) b! r2 t! P5 E4 @0 W$ G4 J/ q; e Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation6 m# @: ^- [7 \
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)" }/ `; t1 Z; y# s: a* E) o
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
0 L+ _8 Q. c3 p1 y$ h* O(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,3805 d9 w. I% H" Z1 P; E" e3 D* S; L
(+13.2%). p. }: a3 `* V: W& j3 c! g
! z. c! {* w' {" z6 g4 F* b
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
( E4 I- S6 H1 Y# s! Z% S/ j( Z. _during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
6 u- x2 C5 S' e7 b6 z( f0 Nfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
( i4 A9 q0 D i& }2 N- _poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
% ~4 V8 q( u. h1 f$ [president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
; N9 u+ V) M' t4 X" b4 S9 n2 t"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
! I4 r) o& `, Q; ^welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy( n0 @) K/ i h' J0 \
balanced market."
2 h2 i7 A; E+ i; M' D9 v
6 u- Z# V0 [/ @ Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
" x. d5 q/ B6 C: K6 x" x Vconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift0 K' }( j/ t( v! U$ E
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued/ V( z0 ^! o# X4 U6 }* i ^
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core6 T H7 A# c* H6 r! k& U" K
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
( n+ d O1 y& S; o2 smanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
" B m! D) U& b, O: a! Q3 pbreaking price appreciations.+ _; @8 o5 W; u+ t3 D+ e$ L6 g# K) I
( u8 R N% P0 j4 Y0 q
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding! \ b6 P2 T1 \: q% {# T
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
N; V/ q& N* U: ~largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
+ {# t" ]9 `7 p" W7 j/ d
5 M4 w0 \6 z; K# I- u In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
$ I1 [5 r5 S' K( `* Feconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
! r+ G7 ]8 k+ j9 Y- H3 H0 y8 Cconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
0 t9 f- Q4 f* h5 r! S( w$ B: r1 zslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
, e: @ \6 M& S. ~7 JIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
% J& |5 w# z# T' K" fgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
- R1 M. j) P+ |5 F. i/ s6 B xprice appreciation when compared with 2005.7 j0 N0 }4 |% K& E; b4 f0 r
& D9 R4 h+ _* n# ~! o: V+ P While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing6 T* u# i& `& z. b" X) I* ^( M$ P
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
) `0 T4 V% k1 ]! [financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada/ U8 R) G+ I4 x/ P: [
are markedly different than those found in the United States.
! m& O9 O0 N8 D9 w6 M2 _
9 l- r0 R9 V! Z( M Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the6 O- P; `. G8 a) f. l! w; {9 Y
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
. d% S9 n- e1 H Qfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the2 G5 `6 n3 B* g0 o3 x
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
* @. m' l# M l6 C# ]/ c1 I; ]affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the4 B& S$ [6 x* {+ T: d* x
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and% N- p# w7 j, {0 Z( u2 O) \
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization: r- i w# }7 F' ^
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
& \3 x- m# ?. T0 a1 T
( c# H, [8 j; E T: i1 M, R" E) _ <<
/ E" S0 P6 ]5 q% |& P REGIONAL SUMMARIES1 k: @4 G2 r# y) ]1 ?4 f
>>7 I8 b9 \' M3 f# h. r
! M! t: U8 K& w
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in5 Q- w2 b& u f. u* @
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate$ ]5 f3 W3 C9 b' W+ ~# D
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
9 L7 P% p) H3 K+ Qlooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
" |! o2 X+ E. H6 c5 F6 X6 C* j: U) Prenovations.2 r$ e- {% R( [+ F# J$ {/ W$ O
% u) m& j, T7 h4 s& P. ^. y: _
The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight/ o( |, P) `- R% G4 b! y4 e
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation5 _) Q, g' i" J! U
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
. T3 e2 y6 p! \* n0 B) |September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
6 ~) f# M( Z) { V$ L$ ~. t! T# c' b7 }* A
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
$ M/ {7 D ^0 I1 uslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
& w& ?' i2 J5 J0 Kquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
* ?' c9 H5 s7 z! f) Y; V. n600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
! `3 N+ }7 f/ Yto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes$ s% Z/ p$ ]7 e
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.! y& G) b; s; k& U
+ M6 z# {: X% Y2 [" h
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
, r) s' r9 Z8 S9 cconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their ^/ n X/ y! M( O1 l
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
" b' P8 O0 c! M4 {was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian0 Q8 N O3 X& D
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing( U+ b9 b9 n) @$ ~, `
buyers with more options when looking for a home.
; o6 ~: _1 J, n7 k2 u+ k& H6 d, Y& t! b
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly: Z" O1 {2 {+ a- f
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
5 t- ]" ^0 S% ypriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,; z2 `, h- a2 J) `
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last" U* A3 V% Z& U) G9 U: C
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.) |7 ^' ~; }; G* Q# M) w
/ b. g' P: k+ j Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house% D+ u: f7 l* f- m! X" ]
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory8 U4 R/ b3 i/ H/ t; r# _* K
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
: J9 w3 _9 y8 wfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
: O. h* m/ b1 h4 z1 i5 s% k+ qwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the5 k" D) c1 z( M B
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before6 F, T) f/ F+ @- v' j, I& ^4 {8 t) n4 Q
making a purchase.
8 q! _ E9 s. l6 l! u7 U' w1 Y, T* Y$ Y0 E
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing _, e& N# a; J' e% g+ ^/ L. C$ D
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong Q5 F* P* P; R
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city+ {7 q1 \+ O7 m' K4 P' q
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting/ D" g$ E* Y" F" G% z& V( {
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown9 ^. y! R0 [8 ]) G7 p
amenities.
6 \4 C1 w; L+ i' I* ^/ G: c9 v: s( M' p `( x; {
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels: O1 z' Q9 }, r" u+ m* v
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
. p. w1 \2 n4 \# f6 g% a. b/ facross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has* z. i! x, p- @9 x; m$ S4 F
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been# a: b, f$ x4 d' ~* ]
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
9 Q! J" B$ e% G, f( W: dresidence, rather than for investment.1 |+ K/ j* C# g- \6 ^
' H6 r% O' }) `" L. G6 {; |) K
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as9 Q0 h$ e% P1 z
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
3 k, Z) y8 J& e3 c- c5 Cin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer& U4 t' U/ T1 G9 F2 x$ o
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization, i2 f7 \5 a7 z- A
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter) h9 y" K; a W0 _) |
the market.' g; F" S- T/ R" d7 K
2 p: k" e+ P/ e3 _! f. @ In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through Z W. g$ h# z
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In, @6 u# m; t6 L' ^
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
# ^6 V( m% w! B2 k' X; i/ W H/ Umonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due9 D/ V# M. Q2 e9 K/ n
to the shortage of available inventory.
! w% H5 A) S& L$ \5 t. s
# o5 N: | a0 g( S Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
+ x) Q: F. T6 h. J# amomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains" I, T. C. s$ X. A) H5 m. P
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses: W3 i1 n; `$ ?! S8 j
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.+ i! g9 H @/ q: H1 c& s
) W) l! w6 j0 u7 i. M$ r Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases3 m# v4 G# L, M
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low; L! M4 q& |, V( ~* b6 I+ m5 W9 r+ y
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
1 e3 Z; K5 h5 M$ f7 [& X; dpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
0 Z: Y" q% t( d% H3 e+ Tprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
! n' S/ @ Y; n* }; N# ] J }season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
9 C1 x1 M# q. x, u1 cbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.6 _9 A0 w9 V, a) [
% |3 E; R a2 }
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
$ V3 t7 x: C6 N0 [- \, w0 Qas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton) w" p( X8 H( K/ d) C
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
" c% v; H1 O; Smaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
" j. r. \7 b! vincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve/ s# X5 O6 I4 n9 A5 @3 ~
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
" O9 z6 u- w+ u0 D* H3 ptowards the end of 2006.
9 X" Y) l" {! o: u! A( ], X T& g# A+ d
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
% Y) D% L; X6 u: s# e6 F' M; qinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable2 l9 h: }+ J; L, r5 e W" p* @
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse3 v# g& @ z( P; O6 B D) b
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
9 |1 U) S# I$ f6 B0 m( zforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
: I$ Q, B5 T; T; w% U: ~8 d1 E, ?! Tpressure on tight inventory levels.* G% p# ~/ }7 d6 y1 L
/ W$ Q/ _+ p! F; d, U- T
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic! K: l; u' g0 O3 s" H
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
( L* g2 \4 j& n# O$ S; \into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;( g' y; b6 r9 f) p Z0 B8 T% N
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
7 V# V* f6 f4 g0 j2 J, C# b7 T; [8 {for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
) n2 x$ L. `$ T7 q8 X$ p
/ x( K! C4 f- e0 c7 @5 { <<0 K. ~! D8 x N6 \8 B
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
$ g7 M G/ X9 Y/ b' A, l
4 C% P' X" z+ J -------------------------------------------------------------------------+ J- m2 K6 o/ \8 F% t$ T# R
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey0 r3 q5 z' D6 \* m% q, g$ \
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* `7 ^5 b. \, j1 O, K) b! ~: A 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
3 Z/ S7 A/ i `, _ Market Average Average % Change Average Average
9 v; a7 b. o* g: f2 ^7 G* I -------------------------------------------------------------------------1 y6 Z$ d8 ~0 S% P6 t2 e8 w/ Y
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
" D- A0 Q6 D. Z5 I$ ]: P -------------------------------------------------------------------------
! q, x& o- w! g5 I Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
4 z4 y0 w& M" V, Q. ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------( W0 L$ P4 B, E; q/ G$ ~3 T, |
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,0000 N% g, K. L. b# L* |& D! R, C3 X& M7 I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------7 B. z7 q5 n& T- d6 Y6 U) ^
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -; s6 B9 i0 |8 t" H: P# d
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ n0 W# _; z) s k; v St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,3335 F3 P# V" o8 P0 c) E
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 ^1 O' H" m6 ?, g Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583) P4 G$ R& j7 o0 D; k: I7 S
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 g0 P4 C# \3 S" a- ?, W8 L Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,1855 A2 i; w9 u4 S+ Q
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
: B! w! [# D; p& ~ Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
, e5 y) a( j9 E, J -------------------------------------------------------------------------+ Q* c1 i, m. |) h7 W; D: F
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,7665 e2 m& T. O7 w% N& Y# z& `
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- R3 a4 D. C8 ]1 E2 P
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
% q' {# `. e7 T3 L/ X: a -------------------------------------------------------------------------
. z) M; b: T3 e8 B Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
6 [# ~* ]) T+ u. M -------------------------------------------------------------------------& j% f* l( T* C) J- ^, Z$ x; B
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
* ]5 D) I- Y" C2 B; u. D -------------------------------------------------------------------------
; J5 q9 K; ]1 j% c5 C0 t0 k Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,7141 F7 e& j. Z# w+ W4 ?4 p
-------------------------------------------------------------------------/ n5 H' D8 h9 H- i/ l- I
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
! S0 q- E i" b" Q: b/ @) Q5 j -------------------------------------------------------------------------4 ~1 [( F# H5 z% U1 E' G& D
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
, \. J8 r! C- ?7 y- S& \9 ] -------------------------------------------------------------------------& c% L, R7 X% [8 Y! [) w
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
7 X9 N+ d9 g! Q$ C -------------------------------------------------------------------------2 H" D4 R* ]% J: p& e& y
2 M2 j/ \- C. f0 }1 q- C -------------------------------------------------------------
/ Q; f e; I) ]+ Q Standard Condominium
: Q7 W! c4 n) C5 @( Y# m -------------------------------------------------------------- I( m2 {& q N, V3 u. r
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
u t5 e. l- |6 j! E& m Market % Change Average Average % Change2 F7 \4 I; n" a1 u* E: T6 k9 a
-------------------------------------------------------------
: K7 A6 ^- C# c3 ?; t2 B. [ Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
5 w% u r* I% L2 h! P0 R6 m -------------------------------------------------------------
' N; A$ Z# W6 \4 o Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%. m1 v4 `) k5 g! K: L
-------------------------------------------------------------! @2 I* b0 ?5 d+ L/ {$ R* u4 ]
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
* D+ L: s9 r9 H# X* ^4 {" Q7 ^. S' m8 C -------------------------------------------------------------" F3 _, e' \( O* s! d7 L
Saint John N/A - - N/A/ [$ O) b6 I7 \
-------------------------------------------------------------
" v( |% d& ~$ F8 C) r# I St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%5 Z4 s9 ~6 h7 `' l" V7 ?2 S
-------------------------------------------------------------8 t. \2 O; Y4 o6 m4 P" D
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%% `# M: ?$ x/ p
-------------------------------------------------------------0 {9 e, y6 i/ F/ h
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
0 p+ L4 P R0 Z+ n6 i -------------------------------------------------------------# I, g5 L& E) c1 A
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%1 p0 ^0 P6 N: r9 G4 H4 @
-------------------------------------------------------------: @$ h# W, G- V3 q
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
& x2 c0 b- A7 p& a5 o# E+ I' E/ F6 w -------------------------------------------------------------
G6 z1 O2 W+ ^ Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%" C, g2 t" M {: D ^
-------------------------------------------------------------
8 e. U- B1 T7 M- Z5 P. q( B Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
7 C4 }) K5 s# a4 _ -------------------------------------------------------------
* o; Z: X" J( Q, w B% I, L Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
5 w7 e0 ?8 ?! q) A0 h& r -------------------------------------------------------------" C4 [/ X% }, d. a' g2 h
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
6 o: h* y3 ? T8 |* a" _ i( \, G0 R -------------------------------------------------------------
4 n1 h9 g+ S, o7 p2 s. V; y0 k Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
' ^1 g; M2 u% q! t( ~* ~/ Z' i( ? -------------------------------------------------------------; X; A, N/ T! d
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
7 t, L5 p: K! h( M2 P -------------------------------------------------------------$ C4 z$ h7 x0 [1 W
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
0 {+ f1 r% @' G+ p -------------------------------------------------------------- |# j7 S! D; e9 W `
>>! B# A4 n# v# y: n3 _
+ N1 S/ T0 ]6 K4 Z- L
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
; K: N! H! _6 }' x- ^" Zin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
. s& |* P/ e. W9 gJohn and Victoria.
7 Z3 v: j- R% \ ]% q5 I/ v
B7 T) v/ s" R# Z7 b1 j The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most7 s. Q P+ M. H
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
8 A0 q; N/ ^' l8 U! Jhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
& ^& [4 D+ D* V3 a% Z9 [references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
. r7 h9 A. w4 c# x L# ~trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
; R) [+ \/ D7 ]. qacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is/ c9 Y# z4 ^2 ^; s) c( r
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
/ M- I+ @5 M0 `2 wfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable j# i8 w8 r* N3 f* @8 ]
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on, I: ~1 T$ l1 U" A* L; F3 a
November 15, 2006./ B/ i* i) ?4 m) k
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
# H/ E0 \0 I7 J( r% tfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge* {# c/ r) `( |$ s6 h4 c( O
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
: z, q% r$ }. z& s a0 F# Davailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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