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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
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- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -9 w) u7 j) c6 \
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TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market$ F. e7 k: z/ h- K* B0 N
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third3 f9 _ o+ B- k5 I; I; D9 W8 F! t
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
4 b4 W, U2 J2 ?in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
& I3 g, M9 G( o3 T8 ]9 I* v3 G' ]price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
3 X+ Z' ?! {% j: b$ jmore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,1 }! p/ G2 U9 b7 b f$ v5 U
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal+ v) J: a; x$ E8 M; R9 w
LePage Real Estate Services.4 p t, R9 C6 I4 a5 M( K
3 n9 ?* ^0 R" g( |) e Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters% r0 G" S7 v5 v% A# [5 Z4 y2 z
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
2 p. T4 j2 P" Dconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and2 x0 R5 R' d# w9 S
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
! X7 e! J9 z8 \, ?6 i+ A* g5 ]residential real estate sector." Z% w' |6 U# c+ s* G
6 u& u/ P3 q. O. k- p Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
( ~, c' A; R n- t2 s0 goccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)8 i6 V, O5 x& a( D- y; c) d
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562$ E B: g. G! I4 D4 J
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380- ?- m6 B: B/ W
(+13.2%).# w. _9 S6 S# O3 v) x+ B
$ b# p0 Z( z8 G1 p6 O: ?
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth6 d1 a/ ~# [6 P0 x7 b; K
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the5 u+ N1 ^9 P+ e# T) T4 b
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
3 ^8 [4 P/ v& Z) b. q, Kpoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,# L$ v+ k2 i' D# v/ R* J! W2 R: z! r
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
% b! \0 U* R; \: W) a! a5 ?"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
+ R! b9 o! B+ K Y$ twelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy' {/ T6 |) |3 i# e9 [( h8 M3 P
balanced market."
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: I; i4 Z% M( R2 u8 C; E2 J Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
$ e0 H7 Y7 U+ F1 Bconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
' s x, c1 C8 E u; [, mto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued4 |8 p+ w+ p+ n: M7 ^8 }1 J
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
3 r. j$ g1 l6 ]6 G1 _' y) ^' [/ L+ Aenergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,( Y' q0 n" H/ F7 L. r* A9 V0 Z
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
% o, I7 b+ T* \6 Qbreaking price appreciations.
+ V) n/ u5 r9 {- _; }( u
/ M& P& O: h: h/ u- Z0 j% g. Z Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
1 U9 b4 f$ r; f. L/ Heconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
; R/ [$ w, J! C/ @largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
9 n4 l3 B- x0 [/ B( k1 r0 i9 q" s; ]
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid0 P; S2 x0 G) t
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
q1 U+ G: M- Y4 @confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off, C, U2 ]) ^" y! E
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.8 D6 Z' D' o5 A7 O% ~4 ^" O/ i
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
$ {$ N$ I; {, ]: U7 ]6 wgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
6 c; Z, b$ u$ k' a4 t) g: b* u+ Qprice appreciation when compared with 2005.+ A/ |+ `1 ]; ~# t b4 C& M
) s. I5 r9 f; ^7 K; |# M' i& V1 ` While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing9 m R% l- I5 b/ v+ |! `( n7 V
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
: S5 K* F' K1 c4 ]0 g% _6 a. xfinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
) }) f0 U, {0 c; W8 U, Vare markedly different than those found in the United States.- h2 X7 Y' P8 m* M6 ^* j F
& B F0 m7 a- E/ k& i
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the3 s# x" T- D* U8 u* {6 }* v2 u3 x4 f
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
2 [, Y, z* i9 S! O% Ofavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the% H. o3 N4 v2 ^8 S
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
" ]0 f4 Q! ^4 Haffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
: ~# L4 Q5 I0 \downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
$ ]" u0 ~) O0 w, J$ raggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
n q. r+ ]" ]/ {/ _8 d' bmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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<<
- ~% ?+ S3 x q9 F+ A$ I; s REGIONAL SUMMARIES/ W0 \/ X4 E! I2 ~$ r+ e; s
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
6 D4 D0 v' @) q5 B6 V* uHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate- L% o& @8 M& I% a
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
, @4 I7 G2 }4 }3 B9 xlooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
- x' r& v2 A# b) z0 u& `$ X; Z) urenovations.
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The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight6 L) T u, v3 K0 Z5 d5 _. o7 e
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
2 l/ B/ w/ F0 y/ Q( hcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and' x% `; s" d% V3 Z" }
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.8 n( T! w1 @# k( D4 M
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The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer* P. ~5 [- x5 C7 Z8 o7 A0 m
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the7 I& Q; U$ _0 W' K2 F
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
4 r# j: `5 K+ G600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
5 U; F& Z' S/ ^; fto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
5 l4 {0 B6 O; T* n. `and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
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4 Q( |/ m$ Q0 A" C In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
: W! F% @9 r0 X$ Xconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their+ f, j( y3 m' N9 M2 D; g9 e; n
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
. ?, ^; D3 X# j' g9 h6 bwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
$ \4 S9 s/ `1 S X4 x4 p7 Sdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing" N4 d# H" O7 [9 Z, [2 J/ g
buyers with more options when looking for a home.( z* m6 Y( h) t( G" f
) y1 L1 }4 u3 m+ N* [: O& x
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly; {+ h# P& A" E! h5 Z. x0 F9 L
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes. A9 E! J9 d$ n% c$ D! m
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
% d, M. b4 F8 k- h( Xas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last% B0 ]1 I" k( ^+ m! o1 m
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.+ [1 h. Z6 M5 v9 p
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
6 Y5 X5 _2 l& ]prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory$ q: t4 U2 O8 l& r, Z7 l
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
2 a6 l* R3 g1 W" [3 ~first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
1 J& J# I) z9 uwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
3 G5 p, Q: l# C3 L/ y3 Ypressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before% H: U8 ~3 I$ |2 l+ W
making a purchase.
9 }, [, ?+ p d2 J
* w" B6 _: T3 L Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing9 ]4 p8 I/ `7 Y9 ?
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong5 T) ?1 q" l, o! Q+ q: \9 ^
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
* } {. o6 u5 W3 Z: @* M, @( Xcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting& s5 }! T: W5 I6 Z- ]
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown6 b' L( S6 T" I# }% M! b9 S. Q
amenities.
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The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
* R0 }6 F$ t x- S. Uthroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
( [* e: h& ?/ |across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
1 n+ O+ `8 E1 s/ z' X( c7 |continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
9 k* d" I! q( edriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
9 n0 q1 _2 m5 K1 k+ Vresidence, rather than for investment.
* H* h6 e% D }$ g: M. I9 y' j$ I0 M
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
4 t2 @6 [5 `3 I. y' W1 S( F/ y+ uhouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted3 Q5 D# T1 J; {% n6 g3 H m1 \) r: [
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
9 W! H" ?! c* q, T9 wconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
% o1 o% r! ^* C8 h. W8 R/ |rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter4 S, o+ w8 h+ g5 t
the market.5 x7 h( }& q- C" s
6 g" G5 R- q( l, f" f2 }% H
In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through# o. K% {! E$ n2 i/ ^) t
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
0 z6 |3 m0 D* A, a( q% sAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
9 C- D- n( X& T5 c/ V4 o* g% [months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
# Y- \9 Q w) C* p4 d! ~ Lto the shortage of available inventory.- `; c* s: l% t/ @
9 |* H* m7 o9 ^2 u; G8 A3 P5 ` Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its4 \4 H) ?5 S4 \, k. h
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
) \' w4 D e# t r2 a6 \vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses j# Q2 V6 m5 G. X2 l
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
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' {/ H% }* I. p. A u Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
& a6 o* w5 d/ Y" h) Pin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
# P0 i; H0 R4 n& sunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that8 P: M( ~4 S$ M
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring2 }9 S( y: m* V( J
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
% ~- {+ }4 S9 Z. gseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
, p2 O3 m+ [( s7 u9 tbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.% T2 _* t) m, Q* y: K
( [( E+ h1 ]5 ?9 C Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
4 [% `1 m2 l) m C" u1 n3 |as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
" P2 c5 {( v7 T5 c' i5 h9 g0 ~remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,3 ^3 p/ b( R* F' a
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices7 c$ |; O6 A5 F8 @
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
; g1 ~$ C1 O5 a* ]2 zin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
) i4 ]1 d9 a% D6 Y; j$ m% |7 gtowards the end of 2006. ; u I' P) n/ \: K9 t* v% j1 ?' Q
8 V4 Z5 v% N1 `. B2 d- a
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
' G! R' V% ~" S* | t& G" @inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
1 B; W3 _" ]% Y- W p, ]7 oto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
. f: o6 j0 l/ a% {! |group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
6 M5 |" | H- j' R6 rforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
. r- a" A; Q6 B" u; [pressure on tight inventory levels.
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Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic4 X, w4 P: E& I& G! L
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
9 ?( V9 F/ Z7 q6 J$ z( finto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
; J: ^6 P' L! B% w' b! gwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching/ r6 c: D2 M7 M; A
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.1 b; r( Q! S/ i$ w6 h
( _8 O! ^9 T1 D0 X
<<
5 O7 k/ ^3 T- y S* A5 q: N1 A7 h2 b Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
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( c2 d i4 z( N, h" C8 l: n5 I -------------------------------------------------------------------------/ @0 `9 G2 O+ s6 ?
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
5 _2 z! Z% V7 r7 S5 v7 h" H+ d -------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 S D* T4 g7 T, C: b* \ 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3+ A$ Y1 Z# g8 k2 a
Market Average Average % Change Average Average' }% b- ? @% ~4 d
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 B4 z" y* C/ f: R# t# X. Z Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,0005 S j2 }- w0 J7 f& E1 x0 @
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
, \5 _0 R4 N# r/ C Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
8 d( O) C6 J/ c! i7 Z -------------------------------------------------------------------------
( y( |# S4 M! R0 v* l Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,0002 s% F; d; s8 {6 w7 V& ^
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- g+ R; `* `3 E! l0 x/ `7 {2 ?: T
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -0 z' Z! j# K# g7 \$ J8 I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------* f$ L* d) q' i) Q4 B
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333" d9 h( _2 d6 G. C
-------------------------------------------------------------------------% D; b: e: s( W; m" x& {
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583" e) s1 _ [7 v- C0 b
-------------------------------------------------------------------------) x. a" _4 R, u2 @3 d; J1 D
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
6 I- N4 ?+ e! Y9 L$ J$ D6 @. p -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 q- X. J9 x/ A3 ]. s
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,2503 V* m7 O) _. a E) o( J) z% _# t
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ x) y$ i/ {1 N1 r5 K8 o# ]( X& s Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766( P- O8 P4 b. z. {; J) g+ g
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 \. m9 H2 u- a: W4 @ Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
( g8 _4 T2 H u -------------------------------------------------------------------------" n0 A/ x4 y Z" `/ R& \
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,5002 R( a6 e# A& h) ?2 t
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 g* C. x6 P" H0 s1 Z* s; C+ ~ Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389/ F7 M# G* H% j$ }" b; f
-------------------------------------------------------------------------9 ]+ _: T A1 S/ O. ^/ l9 i
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714. E3 Y# o- T9 \* }% }+ s' l
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
: X1 h: X. ?5 I3 X) Z3 K7 c Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,5007 M2 V. o( {7 G9 b9 I8 j
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
; S/ g/ b- ^/ i1 l( N& K6 V4 R+ [1 N Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
- k9 _5 s6 P$ f( H1 u -------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 e! h+ m) }( X0 R National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860) y5 H0 G) C/ Y: u5 W0 k. w
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 b: t0 ^+ D1 r) Q. s7 v$ |& I4 g6 @5 z$ ^1 U: i) d( Q$ }! y
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9 i; |, z% M* W5 c% Z. f( ~- X3 B Standard Condominium z2 u& k; {7 O# G) [
-------------------------------------------------------------
3 \2 C5 s& c1 l. J: f 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo# O1 r3 z L+ S" _
Market % Change Average Average % Change
4 }. {$ `/ J& F% g3 c3 j2 h3 Y" d -------------------------------------------------------------7 J4 |# t9 G* S. J
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%; Q4 I% g) C% ~, J. K* K
-------------------------------------------------------------
* {' F& b& m' E# q: i4 ]1 V Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
g/ Z9 I; O |' N -------------------------------------------------------------6 d! A& \5 M& i; L' d. S2 d
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
4 T5 ]: y( i" D -------------------------------------------------------------7 O3 t# _7 w; Y
Saint John N/A - - N/A
6 `9 ]8 P& m9 K& y -------------------------------------------------------------' H1 n% ^: Z+ T Y7 z) Y
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%% Q! E9 M6 A# D/ n" \
-------------------------------------------------------------
2 R) i5 Z O1 ]: e+ A" I Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
5 @* }4 u6 C3 ?! l4 ?8 [ -------------------------------------------------------------
3 ~8 O6 L, T9 V" s6 A Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%: P5 v3 V* O3 ~+ ]4 | L. R
-------------------------------------------------------------3 N5 T6 g2 m$ u, Z7 a
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
$ V! _8 s9 K' i. d/ S6 r -------------------------------------------------------------- K9 H" X8 p( c" e5 S z' W
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%5 j ^* S; Y; L% o
-------------------------------------------------------------- V$ W7 P! U8 Y! j5 X" D/ ^$ O
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
7 ?2 d" y8 Y/ i& J% p$ R -------------------------------------------------------------
# _* W }( @! x9 u8 g Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%3 y4 W# O+ h" ?+ e1 b
-------------------------------------------------------------
' f& K V5 T8 o Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%1 h0 Z+ L) }4 R! t* v
-------------------------------------------------------------% M# Z6 ~: P4 D+ X& T9 \
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
, l+ i4 ~% F4 `5 r/ k -------------------------------------------------------------( w% C- _& H/ [5 g3 {, m7 Q
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
4 U+ ^; z2 N/ b! Y -------------------------------------------------------------
7 J k% a0 U$ D8 G0 F% \ Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
% }9 Q/ A7 E3 B; c" Y& r) B -------------------------------------------------------------
" x- ~0 F3 h9 i5 G$ o6 y National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
/ Q, H. D. Y! E' A0 N -------------------------------------------------------------$ t9 F- c* b0 T; m/ x& G
>>3 T# g" e6 l4 A4 s; O( k6 `. ]
6 ~& ^- m1 d: f4 v
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
$ A- }( G: S: o0 @* Bin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
4 _5 \# S! I$ a+ q; }+ zJohn and Victoria.4 ?/ A. p$ r+ c9 i9 i0 W7 \
% l1 G. N" Q. {) ^7 v* R4 I
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most6 k x' X; S2 j' q" V0 u* ]& E2 `
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
H3 a) m4 N7 t$ O7 y% j: W! Chousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release* S6 H+ h7 }/ O- S' I/ m3 o, p! _
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
M7 D% N& o" v x$ b/ Gtrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities- K% d3 t' a( }$ L8 x& X3 h; E
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
o, x5 T$ ^ g, X( x$ W3 bavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current# S* l5 A# S8 w8 z
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable8 V( U. [. D4 h- B, C% X g9 F9 m! s
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on; Q r- p) F$ L# d% r5 Z
November 15, 2006.- W* O, v/ I1 w$ D- H$ f/ Q
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of3 q8 t! V% U3 A9 J1 B3 K5 G9 j" X
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
4 u3 W( C9 R& Rprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is" Q* v* V. K% m
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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