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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable # X) E& E a1 E$ d/ G- T
. v; M2 O# K8 H
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -/ c, e$ e! m! u
4 }4 m2 q" M2 Q* I) k4 m2 }/ G/ D
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market4 B4 Q) _& ?, E4 s2 o4 ^
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
) i6 g5 s! y1 pquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic! ]( A7 G5 n1 P6 M; E
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
/ `* h/ r" L- w8 |- q4 Oprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and. d* N7 R# h: Y: x$ ?
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
! p( x5 \ X0 _; Q- J) T, FQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal, ^$ M* `# U+ J3 i9 n
LePage Real Estate Services.
' A$ y6 {! m, c' E3 W5 o$ `
8 X' b8 s0 @3 a8 M4 ?. _9 Z Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
/ ?% o; C5 w0 T( Qare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
. F, D k' p; }0 O! qconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
9 @. `, r, f) Z3 ?* D2 T1 u. zsound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
# }/ o! ^$ N; I) d% q4 vresidential real estate sector.
, y+ ?, `6 i% {
8 l" {' I# s2 A8 C1 J Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation% j7 x9 f* f, H% z; [/ @$ Y' f, G
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%): p/ O$ X4 I' A b8 j, N4 S
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
2 V" [8 [+ \ ?1 X(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
% \; p ?( b# f) ^9 Y! o(+13.2%).. P7 ^5 C4 R& Q. D8 G
: ^: |# @- ~% _7 f) v. w
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
1 F4 H6 V7 D* M6 s; ` Fduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the9 w$ e" V& k' U! Q/ H# \) y. M4 j, ?
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
J* u! {4 b/ V$ [4 r* m/ x3 ppoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,' b7 x( l4 y8 s- _
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
# P8 z' C; l1 R+ D+ J% U" X/ W"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
. T6 k- A7 i5 u- V) l) D/ Nwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
6 t- n5 U% L5 b1 H( F- m+ p ]balanced market."" G3 R; ^4 u+ d: W
# p/ `# V3 u; I+ _: h# S! | Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
Z' d4 L; s4 @' K4 `considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
5 Y+ I2 t0 ]2 t& K: }0 Zto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
2 z" r1 _' V' c( S" p/ mthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core- D3 z- j' o. U: t( Q& m9 v0 S
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
: P1 B$ K c$ ?$ _$ |+ Nmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
3 ~! W, V$ M# y ebreaking price appreciations.' b& ~& c; o; {. M
0 B' d! D O/ b. b; t5 T! B" H3 V1 M
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
( x' D. G& {4 [3 } `economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the8 s; F! H" `/ t# J: s9 c! e
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
* z/ R M7 ]( ^
# |- k8 U- X+ s% g% | In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid3 Z$ }- U; l' c t8 F, ~; v: b
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
; O/ m$ U9 X9 O7 G/ ~# U6 dconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
% o# H0 X8 [! J3 s0 _* h- ?; ~# zslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
A3 J! x- N& L; A* _In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
/ [- I; h: @7 {# {2 {) qgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
' V% H- a0 W `" S/ pprice appreciation when compared with 2005.1 ?+ V7 G6 s9 D" }
& }0 s3 X# x* y, O8 d While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing- z, A2 M( z2 [1 e
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and* _7 I/ v- P g0 r, g
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
9 g2 ^. h/ Q+ u" z: Care markedly different than those found in the United States.
( S2 l/ s, a* O' u' w; \' ^: s' V1 K8 ^+ I- {
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the5 g( u4 G- o* Z: C& s
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's# Y2 z6 s8 U3 U$ U/ t+ j! b
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
4 ?$ b9 q. L0 n* }. rrelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general! h T: m# B$ \
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
( f4 f0 l5 |" d/ {downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and- k) x4 B3 D% f3 n! H/ S
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
4 Y6 l) }7 ~8 ?8 R9 T0 ?" X+ c1 wmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
" C9 h/ u2 |( Z9 P6 b/ |( Y! l0 F& h4 |7 T5 w
<<2 E. H/ U# ^' `4 {' s8 B
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
/ a+ e; l+ U+ J >>& G( S2 H* d. _- F0 A. y
. D0 M* \& v$ K, }( {
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in5 z: ^8 U& ~6 u' G
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
9 o( |- n! C& s9 U, G _/ V& bof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time' q$ f, M3 I3 E0 R7 f" S% n; F y. d
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of! K. i& W( o6 d# I( C9 v5 j/ T
renovations.
( N# y1 y* u# x. c8 `
; R! V; }! j; U+ ^9 T% ?/ z The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight- N6 r% U/ A9 o$ a1 a: M, y
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation' E1 `* R# X2 {- r$ j2 g7 |/ q
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
& e& h" }4 v6 aSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.! B/ g4 ?! j# D8 r2 z& O
8 q. L5 n: J, I
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer, y1 ?% D" G1 m: Q
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
2 P8 p! @* c) B |quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
+ e/ E z% M! I _' `- z' m8 ~ B600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores$ T3 H# R$ U E* q2 |
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes' v- A5 d# I# ~1 l- \: p/ O$ T
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
. q p. G8 K# S& ~* j7 N9 a" }
; a P! V1 L3 c' O+ f1 o; h In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
9 J; B. a" e1 J" [) p4 X' |conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their+ N2 \1 |4 }0 w, o
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
$ e6 Q) _2 }/ |; }* n- O | [was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian- R Y! o; K3 Y
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing6 Y1 q9 n3 H8 \2 \
buyers with more options when looking for a home." U1 F: x1 @; }/ d/ i! Y' F( d
# }/ Y$ Q7 R: e+ G. Q) G; i5 D
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
/ c: d) P# Z) [; c% o$ `# Y" T8 Jamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes4 q D5 _% f* l5 Z
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
" L: @7 }8 } p8 was some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
( D* Y9 [& X/ @3 ]few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
9 M; f8 {( ` C2 o
! p, ~0 l- P# ?, _( c Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
) f4 S! `0 i- m8 Uprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory% j- Q7 r5 c- `& E
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting8 ~2 Z+ s0 H* n s0 R/ V; L& K* L
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,0 s& c6 x6 u& ]- V R/ C
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the; w5 u- V$ A7 _3 r
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
2 M2 x. L0 q* Z; V n' n4 vmaking a purchase.
- B# E2 K6 x! o% ]/ E/ T
A, F8 ^: {6 y* r Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing$ {& a `1 p; l2 E8 v
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong) P2 c6 A& d4 G1 Q, C3 b! O U7 u
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city1 r, _# c) M# z# `/ d, T/ b
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
. ^4 A: Q/ |2 Aattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown1 ]2 N# v) a) N5 ?8 {
amenities.
! P0 ^1 `( c$ z' k) x C l
) p# o6 L8 y4 e1 y ^9 j The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
& W: O, | `0 @: _throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
& U& r4 j2 ]+ g5 n6 Lacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
) j0 X2 T5 m ?! b2 t, econtinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been, Q2 ^. p, p/ d: a. R7 k- n
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle* H/ H6 [. S% S( u
residence, rather than for investment.
7 p+ m/ ]. B9 A" k3 e0 n& g: e3 T( ~ T! \6 P, h5 p$ ^
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as- ]( X8 d- U: j& [9 g
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted2 S7 F1 }+ R: v2 A1 u K; Y* O
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
% w, N$ @ D: i% M. ]0 Rconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
! ]) ?* n) g& e4 W- S/ brate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter. z" `( Q1 A) X1 j- P
the market.0 u" ]6 v7 W! n; f4 m+ e7 g
# O6 L8 i1 Z; [2 r. B0 u; D7 V In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
. ~& T* v# l7 E' \July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
0 Y0 h; p0 g: [% Q6 \+ RAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
& `. w3 W4 l; E0 j% }) T' B c4 Vmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due( e3 k {9 z" e/ r
to the shortage of available inventory.7 p, C9 r, e& }9 \: R; G x1 j
8 [2 a1 P: V+ v
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its" [& i, Y' } B7 J! k
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains( F. Q6 i4 t$ w8 Z' L4 j- @
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
" m! l1 ]; H- }* ~0 Istruggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
4 q G& S4 d w! d. O$ L% n0 e
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
! m0 B$ ?: K' q$ I. {! zin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
# C1 F8 s; a9 ~5 ~unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
3 I1 C, D' h) e' v- tpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
" i: i: ]/ f1 d# F& N6 p1 Dprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer, v, X" Q+ i' \9 u6 i1 o: W
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as5 F0 r, Y j' P2 _. F+ c( R
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
/ m) h: p* _3 Y4 B7 [; S
% ]6 L% G$ |' `0 e Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
. o. Y! ?. C& T. b9 [' ^; pas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton* A( [. p* A+ C: W* `
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,7 s9 f2 |6 p2 n
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices8 ]4 Z7 J5 j2 V. s% t8 J
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
; C" C# P6 N' V/ r W3 U+ Ain the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly) t5 I- M7 X: |7 E( E
towards the end of 2006.
3 d" Q' ]4 G* U, E. l& b# S6 b" v; ]2 l( Z
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of' S/ }3 T9 j, v
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
8 Z2 V0 g5 T/ {+ n1 wto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
) z5 s; T6 y1 b0 ], g7 k4 ^4 Lgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to q. R8 w" N- i* k
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
/ c7 d: m. c1 ^' N. }/ M2 Mpressure on tight inventory levels., W5 j0 ~+ `7 F% L, k; j
% R5 z& i3 C6 z$ ~* f5 R
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic6 M! P; W- j7 I' T
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
. e, y# Q+ G8 ginto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
+ R- @+ ?! |% w) p9 E q9 {while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching1 f; c6 a y9 c* y3 H! G( k
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
6 m6 o/ x' k5 k+ m7 k0 H3 z" Y9 t! D# g& M3 c2 `4 h) t
<<
* l0 |7 |1 P* h a9 X" O Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
1 R' e0 H% U+ r- ^3 z' j
+ ^! g; c8 L# |6 M& ?+ ` -------------------------------------------------------------------------6 w7 G* [; l- O- z( Y& b' Z3 A1 u5 n
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey8 z' D2 N: J3 m
-------------------------------------------------------------------------' K( R1 T( O* O# P; ]+ |) `8 Y! C$ m
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
) y2 G4 U; |& W+ ~9 q' A+ X Market Average Average % Change Average Average1 T8 \. [9 ~, T- ]0 p' c: n" k
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
, o% M# ^# W+ S0 b; e8 q Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
- b" Z7 X# \- _* O* l6 u -------------------------------------------------------------------------
! n# |7 e+ v, r1 F Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
* g! L7 s2 Y D9 d: e -------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 K4 S2 b* S! N Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,0009 J6 y3 u$ ~# N3 y7 e7 p
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 v- J0 L$ ^6 O8 q Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
% f4 d, r3 N0 w6 Z H! r -------------------------------------------------------------------------( _+ z$ S$ w8 g( C1 j
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,3336 `4 D5 U5 X+ B1 e! k( h$ W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------9 t; b3 d# @, o& r% X( S
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
" E8 d# t% N( v+ p: P9 v. q -------------------------------------------------------------------------+ I5 \: E9 ^# I2 X5 t
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185" I& \; s- {. Y Z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------9 z. x( S8 b8 b( F. h2 g1 q6 {
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
( {) S( x( a+ B' t$ ^- C, v -------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 |) ~0 F* k! T, o, O3 B Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
6 O- C1 j8 R$ j5 y7 O4 v) v -------------------------------------------------------------------------% g% [. z+ O. J% q0 D: Y8 J$ f: G0 C
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
' P( W! T, F' O; V -------------------------------------------------------------------------( g/ y. n5 l4 D5 Q: |- l/ F
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
6 ]/ [6 u% q" y. s% I -------------------------------------------------------------------------8 X0 h6 H2 h$ Z/ [
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,3899 M- E$ f- L' k9 W8 `6 G
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 V& z& S# A: a Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
4 w% G' R% y* s -------------------------------------------------------------------------7 i- h, H* D+ U6 Q5 h
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
+ Z l6 r$ m& Q% C# t. ~! `! m1 H: t; q -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# H6 Y- `+ j3 l Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000& x0 t* z" d- |/ N e- z' \5 `
-------------------------------------------------------------------------# W1 ~7 i& Q5 G# @6 Q
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860+ ~* E, q7 l) @4 N' j
-------------------------------------------------------------------------, a$ l0 T% ? i
; o5 j& J# m n7 p
-------------------------------------------------------------* }: x6 Q. M$ F5 l9 Q3 O
Standard Condominium3 @! Q; j% b- Q" V3 D
-------------------------------------------------------------
, o% M% ]$ C$ z 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
* t: ]7 B3 t( h Market % Change Average Average % Change( w' Q! ?9 ?& R7 \9 q/ j
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 A$ ~9 y- F( S% U9 e Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%8 `$ _! t2 b: b
-------------------------------------------------------------
- n5 h. K& V2 [4 e' Z l7 K Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
+ f- e' ^4 Y7 v; W -------------------------------------------------------------
1 v( J. G0 J! [( |. K Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
+ ^: p4 T& ]2 ~$ Q6 S -------------------------------------------------------------
9 }, Z; d5 H2 K c Saint John N/A - - N/A+ \0 [1 i" b! W
-------------------------------------------------------------
8 R* @2 h6 |3 q' R+ F St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%2 Y' P. Z3 P& W! r1 K8 G" L6 ^
-------------------------------------------------------------
! Z7 {6 g; Q0 z; {( p1 o& Y3 B; K Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
. T& V' B' G; R9 L2 z, r" v -------------------------------------------------------------! y, g7 f! \3 y- l* C" P% Z
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%, Z0 L1 F' [/ m b2 k% V/ b
-------------------------------------------------------------
& `- g. U3 w4 Z1 M0 g Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
% G" T! R& m+ E$ e# ?2 _% a# \ -------------------------------------------------------------! W3 C( ~9 D0 s! w: `$ ]
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%. k2 {. x- S0 Y/ Y' @. G& J5 x3 m
-------------------------------------------------------------
2 W; V- y D( V Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%) X, ~' f: m9 d1 W; Y$ }
-------------------------------------------------------------4 m: c3 b! g4 Z! o" }& o o$ Y1 n7 P
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%& f1 q3 ]! O7 \
-------------------------------------------------------------2 t1 F, V" w& u& `
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
1 k* k: b9 p F5 e9 X. ] -------------------------------------------------------------1 v6 I( f3 k% A: U. J
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
% i% g6 {1 y- g -------------------------------------------------------------; @. ^8 K4 }) \" A
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%! X& m9 @/ c2 g* Q' V: l2 h# A' l
-------------------------------------------------------------* Y; L, }) O' g$ R
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
* J j+ c# }% M" V% e" V -------------------------------------------------------------, v* ^4 q- ?5 o2 |
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%( R1 v# U8 c( P5 Y) U) T
-------------------------------------------------------------
O: K' g7 U2 q >>* G. R+ T9 h* M7 k
- D% m, }% C% ~6 e+ M3 W) B Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
) `& S( w( }/ d8 z' ]8 qin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint: X I& F; H2 c2 m8 @
John and Victoria., ^& m) S! g3 V+ x" m S( N A
9 ^8 V) ~' d2 i: H8 J) _
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
% t9 o3 u! u" q( m0 A6 _" ycomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of( U) L w8 E" p* Q
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
4 S, d: n& R4 Creferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
1 g* N/ M- P- G2 d$ K5 \- \trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities n p& z4 P$ k$ x) a2 a9 [
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is4 V3 P- M; d, P/ l
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current6 M$ j# V! Z) t) K; L: c' C: n
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
Q" J3 a8 h4 p( Eversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on8 r8 i; N/ S. n, K
November 15, 2006.
9 h; {/ `5 T6 \ Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of, H$ a" U m2 e; p& |
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge+ {" r( H, t# T0 U! i
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
7 u C6 U% U& B7 \* O' Davailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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