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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable ! p: Q7 Q# W, i/ A: T7 h& v3 G7 I
7 ?" Y6 j* u' {" p: u. A# f- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -& W# @) _' d- w2 d
) D0 r, R% ^ J0 U1 u) y TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market" l0 [" ?; t4 n( M. r: s, I# O
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third( C, H2 e3 b$ A: j- u9 ~0 J* ?) M
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
7 H, @, t# [8 X9 f7 S3 I+ Pin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit6 P) N/ ?* z4 i1 T0 P+ H1 z
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
/ r8 G" v. J+ X4 F! N; }8 C# z$ Mmore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
0 d. X" A( I7 n# c+ M% dQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
# d: ~% F" X; v4 d2 ^2 f- ELePage Real Estate Services.
' u$ b+ u- k4 \2 r. T: F
# `2 Z6 b% T% v4 C( v, A Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
1 }3 P* A2 `4 a, W4 F3 H' ~are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
4 L9 t! L1 l& o" Fconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
" {$ v* e- g4 f ]9 O6 esound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
" @) O1 B! E9 X" `residential real estate sector.
8 X/ q- F5 N8 b) w) N8 t5 k( m
x( e7 h" v) d Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation8 Q/ P# t' e" B
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)9 X! a) p, p4 s. M; W7 J
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562% ?7 V6 l. W- m
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
- F+ r" I) S }! o A- z- [% `(+13.2%).
- [) J6 D2 S8 l! |& }8 u
% V8 | Z6 w3 r* t( R* X "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
: q7 j: @; J$ D- ?, r4 _$ Vduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
8 P) M z- ]/ V W. U& lfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are2 E' J+ \7 A8 F
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,: Q: ~: {4 i- o5 b8 j/ a) ]
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.7 i8 ?$ N/ u5 P" y
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
1 s- W6 |6 F* l+ c! twelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
7 O4 h; D- p/ ^& y& i' S3 `! |balanced market."
: r9 O, Z! U) [
+ A6 {" r7 H7 ?. Y4 n Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
& _* t/ f: p1 P3 W2 q" Qconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift8 ~! t2 ]6 P4 x+ z
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
4 s+ b# S2 s5 I" U3 x9 |& othroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core$ Z" z. i }2 t
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,; B0 W( w5 t/ G4 b0 i) O: h
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
p+ C+ n' d+ Y! ?2 e. nbreaking price appreciations.7 h2 H1 S$ p9 \) C' M) J3 K
, S, ~5 D8 x! v" D# i, ]
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
; V0 N0 G% i& Ieconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
, e4 a, R! \; I1 P0 {1 ylargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.0 u! W( k6 B1 {3 j, ^
& k6 @) p. R& e+ u8 E8 w% B In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid4 Q# }, ^9 f( \% x+ `9 e* C
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer; |8 k) i2 g8 U( H& F# j# E* S
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
& o1 ]7 {) H4 \# S; B) u$ C; Gslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.3 k* E9 j& H' g+ n9 U
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
e0 v3 z6 k7 Qgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
9 F9 E" j5 @0 Vprice appreciation when compared with 2005.
. ?: A5 h7 ? @5 q, z' p- H. p' ^% {1 W! m# G. @/ o( ?$ Q
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing+ D' w8 U, `# e+ ~5 n( ]
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and6 S* f* n+ i5 m4 Y* k
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada- B( R Z6 a9 D1 ?
are markedly different than those found in the United States.- C& d) h# Y F P- H) i9 A
! B- w5 F# A' F; O# e$ R, K$ ] Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the, y) j1 K' F" c$ m/ d
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's8 |% G- s! c$ o
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the* c5 c9 I3 \0 T8 h: F; x6 E( ^/ ?5 p
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
: e# i2 Q! m+ [; I2 s( j& gaffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the: T( j. f, s% |' t& Y
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
& I6 E* X |* M7 m/ N( e7 kaggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization' y2 s I: w4 w+ b
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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<<) V7 k$ j7 g0 j# N
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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3 [2 P& [7 p8 N+ B
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in- K6 w" @7 W* A# p( R6 J! s' E
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
/ F2 C1 s" k+ H/ yof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time9 E7 |. Q m4 s6 [0 H
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
$ o+ B% \4 c) O8 P- nrenovations.
9 ]0 H9 a: J7 r+ k: L+ _2 a3 R8 _' i9 O
The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
/ [; q8 w+ y- f) I7 ~; fincrease in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
, Z( X7 y$ f L. ^) Z, _compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and) q7 h$ R4 N0 y& q% ]& Y1 Y% [
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.& f! n4 |" g) ^1 Z
4 D& V! I# P* A; l+ ^: k9 t
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
! H. R, w0 \, r$ Y+ Y* zslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the4 V* R& x4 |; Y* W# Z
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new3 \, |" r( M% [" M: z
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores* E a' N0 _* b9 I7 C# O0 Q
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
5 C( x8 X4 X" g3 \% Land are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
" Y4 n, T' j1 P( O; Z% U0 g' J; {2 C6 B2 I
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
$ T$ [% K# G& V' U8 O4 Jconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their! y* W. W; B" f
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers) n: C% s: e6 A2 \: Z3 b E0 y# c
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian8 z6 j% w; }. D2 Q
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
4 S. w7 |; j( N U) Z6 R( R! x1 Hbuyers with more options when looking for a home.! P* e& L3 ?# x3 _0 A0 B+ C
2 K7 C9 v# D7 O( f0 ?, \- @- r# l
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly1 ^+ K; E3 M2 n) J
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes$ S) Y; `' C; A, R
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,# k" E! f, e% ?8 h' c3 J
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
& k! H8 @! B4 d& W0 g! Yfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
5 \' I3 a8 Y$ }" S5 H9 K P/ i6 x# x, [. @7 E8 @- c9 ]' S, E& `( d
Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
& _5 l. d* f) a9 U7 e( y# C2 `, Kprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
& U1 l" N2 G) f7 { v% [* _1 ilevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting# J, ?0 Z' @" ?4 q
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,9 N& X! _5 J- _$ s3 B* i
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
. [; F3 R* v. k, Z9 c, @7 Qpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
9 F# S# L( `* ]6 w9 \ Omaking a purchase.; Z" v @9 n" o7 p
8 K2 F9 d+ e- T! @! @% M Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing/ }7 s4 T! @2 g- J
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong' q- Z2 t$ E( P/ W; \
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
) ] u4 {7 m& ~7 Ycentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
7 ^6 c% Q- m- p7 N9 G! Yattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown$ M2 G5 n6 f* i% Y2 K) u5 J
amenities.$ k: u7 _0 H: r1 w$ X
* y" h& B$ ]! }' r' f
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
8 `' I1 t: w" n; l/ J Ethroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
- a3 f# w6 @8 Q; L) t% p8 @across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
$ ~, U" o; @$ econtinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been# Q# B& d' n1 Q. _: ^0 \* Q
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
" Q* _6 ^# D% t5 A# X# k4 Jresidence, rather than for investment.
5 z8 I. m& W _8 b6 r# J o# s, g6 W7 k
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as1 Q \+ ~/ u. s! m3 M
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted, P; h# |: R& D/ Y0 A
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
/ F! \! X' [ G) Fconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization4 J6 `4 M1 F8 j, S! K
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter- [. q; ` U+ n) a& Z+ A7 ]
the market. I& ~3 Y! k: r3 t6 A0 [- J9 ?$ A
7 R; V0 B H( o- Q In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through3 j5 D, o* D7 P) D1 X% P* `& r" ~
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In- X; B# [( x8 ~& ~* V# Y6 j
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring, [% l5 b: b$ A: a" f9 U U
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
( u% Z5 ?0 U: i! J. V, W/ xto the shortage of available inventory.
* F4 e5 z3 k1 `/ n; O$ U- W3 u
2 Z" C: g! e' V8 \) u Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
( F+ v- ~. ?/ ~' n# K, f/ ?3 dmomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
, R4 y+ n- w+ Y+ ]% [vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses" G [6 t; d" x, N6 p
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
7 a9 \8 A4 m5 c; k, r
2 J; e- _" G* S. J5 K6 q# l Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases& n3 V; A4 V* D s% |
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low4 B. d2 |, F% @# C+ w
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
' S$ U% d7 g- Z3 Y1 `pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
- d9 U' a6 A5 w+ v$ ^( q2 ?prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer4 x m. W& T$ v' Q( ?& q* I1 _
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
: p; Y5 m5 W; pbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
# V) L# `9 B% O# p* u3 v, F' }! x$ y* ]: D1 T
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter, @# w7 z) l G0 [$ K" c7 ^
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
) A% R6 j6 l' ]6 D; r" }7 L: iremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
: @- h" ~+ i4 Y8 ^8 ~% t( A$ o% A" d/ Amaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
; }: @* ]+ | a T1 X U c! ]3 Pincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve& k1 N4 @$ z* T& u' L9 V
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
# m& g6 r: Q0 t: E- q# t2 ftowards the end of 2006.
z# t6 V5 }: r5 D. Y1 Q2 v0 i8 d* v3 ~
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of3 w4 V# n( |# ~2 h3 i2 v3 O( s
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
& D2 }% H5 K) }. }, \% e1 P" eto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse$ o: ~* Z1 _) `6 ~% Z7 v% o6 \
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to5 e. @7 N- y( d( m }' l
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added1 I h( g$ c2 l5 j X
pressure on tight inventory levels.9 t* D$ ]6 W/ w( `0 S
# o, Q: ~1 N8 K1 h0 l2 d7 X Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic4 R5 @' ?" |/ e' m. I2 A: H
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people: v J! }% u" [- p
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
0 o3 e" s E( |' H0 v# @while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
j' z5 Q& `3 q& mfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.& e+ y% V* R4 ^! V& R
\8 n6 }' N9 l, A) Q* J7 W- J
<<* K7 d& i6 p7 F) G* q. g
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
" t7 \9 M" K$ k5 d6 q/ J- ?1 [8 J9 \0 U! r- M; c
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
# o5 w% K( V, u* F: q# z Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
/ Y) @2 A) ^% s5 ^& A% J -------------------------------------------------------------------------5 `# g( q% b- l9 `
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
! A8 J1 x/ a& z- H Market Average Average % Change Average Average
^+ B6 Q+ c$ N* _1 I) T i& l( p -------------------------------------------------------------------------& i1 d4 r' D" m% W$ d: q
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000, B2 C1 n9 }1 i( h# S- Z6 ^
-------------------------------------------------------------------------1 @1 d7 Q- C/ u
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
+ c0 a1 Z k" m+ p V -------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 J9 o! ^. U+ i2 R( d/ R) ` Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
2 U' D t% ]6 W -------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 p9 t/ B- T: a5 o$ r8 D Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -) ?5 X; V6 z7 f
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
: D }% E3 V3 E( q' ~9 M7 q St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
- g, t/ I3 T! V G2 W -------------------------------------------------------------------------
: v9 d# k# H1 g: E8 ~8 q" @ Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583$ {" J1 C! ~9 z. `: X+ Z* @" w
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
U* ]( v7 n5 n- y2 K8 M! r3 Y Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,1855 h+ ~4 D o% r' \! h) N4 f
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
' ^7 I6 H& p! s Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
& m2 J+ ~" q. }# D -------------------------------------------------------------------------; T3 t- l; U% p3 Q9 X
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766+ @$ {; i5 B: o4 f- }. N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------) r% [. J1 l! O5 f3 E
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
' m" b+ m: W8 ?' b* @ -------------------------------------------------------------------------+ T# [ x" W C/ V7 X. b- N
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500+ g5 }0 h4 F }* X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
) `3 ?8 [ C' y( U2 _ Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389$ k4 [/ B1 F: U8 o0 e. D- m3 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 b% g) z- q( z Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
6 |: j, F* Y F8 M -------------------------------------------------------------------------, H8 M: |; |$ U) p
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
F8 x( @* o) ^- Q4 [# N X -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* {( y; c3 Z" B) a7 e9 { Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
/ n2 W' Q! T: K( ?: ^# E* v" |& ?9 Y -------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ t ~9 S9 x: t$ ^ National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
" @. B& L- P$ W% Y% s7 V! J -------------------------------------------------------------------------
; W. H3 G2 L3 D, N. ^
6 x' _* `4 R% A6 D, I -------------------------------------------------------------1 I$ q0 L [. a+ F+ z8 E% z0 x
Standard Condominium4 L8 v- J$ T1 a. s* D7 F
-------------------------------------------------------------; V, E+ u1 A' p0 A
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo" l5 i+ m. U" d8 c
Market % Change Average Average % Change1 _0 Q+ `* o' X5 Z6 I4 A
------------------------------------------------------------- B1 K5 u, `8 Z" T. Y1 e
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
. O1 n! ], ]5 Y. J1 X' T& F4 { -------------------------------------------------------------
( P {0 X$ D$ H; w Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%: E+ n+ M( Q1 V8 N
-------------------------------------------------------------2 K" b6 W4 k E. @, x8 L
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A X% e" x$ P. K5 v( F% W5 L
-------------------------------------------------------------, q- A4 g4 l v3 c S' e
Saint John N/A - - N/A! X d' U, |6 k4 Y
-------------------------------------------------------------
7 ^7 o3 w9 X+ F: j/ _. O2 l4 t St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
2 P2 m4 S6 L* W1 U6 E7 c -------------------------------------------------------------
/ G( a6 u% e8 [ Z [" s Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%( n3 S. l% m3 k. G
-------------------------------------------------------------
- B; T# a; Q* u6 q2 N, ?" ?: s" o Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
7 L' P! M. o1 F -------------------------------------------------------------
0 u$ E e; K# f, D1 R# L8 h Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%% |: Z3 I5 J, k% b
-------------------------------------------------------------
; w4 n, l) |3 X6 o Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
4 i% @4 d( s# Z5 G/ y) P% P -------------------------------------------------------------
# S, @+ c/ x4 R# Y6 Z Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%6 v) Y, \6 ^* c
-------------------------------------------------------------
8 l. m% R% v- {6 k9 a Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%2 c! G, C( b) E/ u
-------------------------------------------------------------5 O/ j. c6 f" J u4 p
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%4 ?& t) _# \# k; { H7 u, W
-------------------------------------------------------------
+ i8 }2 [6 ~ x* D8 ~ Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%% w2 w1 H9 P$ C( ]" M9 {. ~7 k+ A0 a
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 c% Y0 d/ q0 W$ f Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%2 j/ u% i! q @4 p
-------------------------------------------------------------
" b7 ^+ i8 C; E" w- ?$ l' Z Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%7 w- u5 p9 L: ^5 i" `# z4 W. T0 \4 T
-------------------------------------------------------------0 H+ v* J7 Q k
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%' @ I2 E! ~3 S* O, K |" M* U- o* v
-------------------------------------------------------------
- o; W0 a) f. {6 z7 L6 z8 c M9 r >>
9 ]( P" D8 D; a( Y* k
4 G- e2 D9 E1 o- Z, M# n1 o Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined& y, P- X$ _- C$ Q
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
3 c i% ]- O) Z' K+ |' _8 |John and Victoria.
8 a( |$ T$ {! I' ^" `3 m1 \5 D6 t( n- X; Q5 }* u. H" w
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
! k' F; I; X+ O. Q& ncomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
2 ^1 d6 w# |# Y/ Rhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release( P5 \0 ~9 w0 @. h% h
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price3 u* C* ]) r5 b4 T6 C
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
/ T, X( K1 R) u/ ?9 nacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is$ M0 Y& n! O5 k9 X6 k
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
/ Q0 m' b7 e# F8 \* Sfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
; y+ a" Z+ L9 y) W" i+ E) Xversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
4 j r. _; A& b: k RNovember 15, 2006.
3 R( X+ M$ X% d' r* @. H Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
; I1 r' Z1 a% x2 W8 V" Ufair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge! V) V9 H g2 F k" ~: y5 b
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
/ g- d! s$ ]: P* _, Q3 r; Z. T- h( iavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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