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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable ( W3 X" W- @" @8 K" b
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- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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' |' L+ c9 m( y TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market5 g5 u% ^# t8 ]# P- m: y
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
2 G+ Y+ F2 [$ F% ~# {% Mquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic! S- o( q! }& C* v5 e) i
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit$ H5 s( Y/ s6 R
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and7 }4 ^, H3 G) y. l/ D4 _6 P
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
- O! Z# I& U! mQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal2 f$ V3 V9 b+ l4 Y/ B
LePage Real Estate Services.
$ O; D$ v2 c6 h/ I' n& w9 f% Z' K' l
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters" F* S9 \) f3 Z* S0 P. }! E, _
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
" `1 g9 J" [$ Dconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and" X& A6 T2 L# D3 K# k$ }
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
, r; w3 z1 {2 t4 R& Tresidential real estate sector.' h- W0 w2 U0 _( p% f( l
5 S: `; A" U+ f8 v- W. ^
Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
+ D$ {" H% O% noccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)2 S' K* X& n: o% h# }8 ~' z
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562! v u* {. ?. x5 S" a! {) J
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
8 L0 K# O; x: I0 O, {+ J(+13.2%).& b3 ?5 A2 Y' r% K
; Y% J8 n! r ^% N6 c
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
6 g& q) E5 q% D" [) Wduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
0 R! e! H3 ~$ |1 k2 ~& U: zfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are! V& ?# l7 f& D+ s
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,8 ?2 ?0 H6 r9 }
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.' K0 A: V# X, X- P2 i; |
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
. M4 i1 [9 ~. @6 l. y% Zwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy: w I7 u" V+ ?2 B+ `; }
balanced market."" w: s9 W/ Y6 f6 t
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Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,7 X( S, D2 k3 D: j" ^ l& f
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
o* ^( K8 ]: W4 v, Vto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
2 E' l5 q4 c$ w' Nthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
, O: C& Z* f3 u) N' d/ nenergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,4 V8 W. ?) a' G9 y$ ?, V8 M
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
2 X" P, }( ]. d) c7 Y/ ]% I5 r/ S% jbreaking price appreciations.
4 w, _* x9 V# @0 m
; [5 ^& b$ n- m6 M& g6 v/ s* g Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding# @$ F) U6 Y! P6 T. b4 ^# _
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
3 q. S- a, C) C, Ylargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
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In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
# Q L( ]' i9 N! y: j1 _% H3 Feconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer) t) k: F$ r3 ?% R8 u
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off; U1 C; V( ]& h& ^5 ]
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.' O- Y5 Q% C9 y) W$ b, N8 a. ~. E
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
& g2 i/ s/ k$ G( u% `5 \' @greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
$ L6 E+ q+ ?' u" m, [5 @$ L6 A7 \price appreciation when compared with 2005.' t: K0 J: z* `/ J9 N( `7 G _
]1 N6 d3 p) Z1 B, j9 [& J
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
: X" S% ?" v7 ?market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
7 E0 s" Y. v, C X3 ]9 H1 Cfinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada9 D& J" E3 o0 u2 Y, Q+ g- N
are markedly different than those found in the United States.. `7 K# y5 I! K2 ~
% A1 U* I) L3 o/ Q- o0 ^
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
0 ?! K! G @' q0 ` rAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
% w1 X5 L5 B! r" S1 D$ rfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
0 t" X+ Z2 T, C0 Nrelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
+ M- }' D+ [, daffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the8 p# U! F4 r( ^; V2 H5 F( J
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and+ Q0 E8 g, h$ X3 v) K9 i
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
) k+ J, q3 E) V! {4 q% j1 f& I/ Ymortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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<<
* T: D: W* `0 N8 |. y; l. h REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
- s* _+ e/ ]8 ~- aHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
7 @9 a5 I1 ?, [( g" A5 o1 Xof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time6 ]' z* {- `6 C8 B- R/ B) B. |5 F
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of- P% `* r/ l% H' F9 U5 F! g Y
renovations.
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2 y( _* \3 F. O0 H* ]- S# C The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight" ~2 h/ X2 N, A$ q9 a2 v$ M
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
, `8 N K& b8 i/ z5 _3 q$ tcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
" r+ s0 |% {: rSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
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. E. b5 K2 z0 Y% p! ]' Y. _ The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
( a0 l% z" T1 ]/ Bslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
$ j' O& `9 o! j* E2 D0 Hquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
$ y M$ H h5 F2 V$ R6 ~600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
; G4 D( O+ w' H* vto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes1 w% T% K5 M' M8 N
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options./ y- |5 @) r- _8 p/ \; Y+ V8 M
: ~$ J5 Z$ g' \
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced: l- L/ P3 p7 P
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their Z9 {9 [% Z. x- P a" u$ |; Z. z* T
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers: W, ^7 V: k! @5 X" I/ W3 T7 N& c
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
0 g! _3 e1 C; X' }$ ]dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
) |' M( Y; n" k* C# q0 vbuyers with more options when looking for a home.4 U3 V: o n) {$ \& h
/ \+ ]2 a) s" H
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
) ~3 t' H3 @- S# @! ?/ Samong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
+ t0 n# _( t/ N) z% X7 Bpriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
2 e% Q2 P# a' [% D9 }) I Fas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
6 Y4 ?& s: f3 ?: q" Y% Z \: hfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.: K! ?( m- T2 ~6 v( N* Y
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
0 E9 {7 l" x/ l% D, l C4 dprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
" r: ^, a$ j3 |- m0 V. Llevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
* c0 z/ B e: b7 D8 ^: I- S4 G! f# tfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,0 `; a! v1 K+ A! k' E7 K# U
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
9 H5 k$ M/ M1 V/ a0 |5 Gpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
0 \, c. s+ O/ m" vmaking a purchase.
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3 \# P- G" m& V0 B. L Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing- D% q$ e" c0 b+ z. c& Q
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong( @( K( a$ o& |$ `
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
: t6 F! ~$ O. `0 ^- Dcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
7 A' L* P4 |( F$ K( F5 Qattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown( _6 ?, @0 g( x
amenities.
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$ m2 V* \9 Q7 O' V- ^+ } The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels: f: v; m+ j$ L& h8 y4 H
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
I. k$ K+ Z. I2 z1 Y6 f4 b" ?+ lacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has0 L e" C" }& L5 F! @
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
. b" W5 ^$ n! D8 e7 r7 |driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle* ]# B1 B# r& [4 |/ v/ Q
residence, rather than for investment.: V/ G. o. m1 Q+ \1 o) R, y$ y C
# N8 ^2 o: f' P) K M4 V) s. ] The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as: O' ^8 o O( s/ `8 ~& n
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted" p$ o6 l# O& `0 M
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer1 v1 p3 |" v7 W1 \# N
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
9 j4 j' x B3 E j6 i3 _" A- Brate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
+ M9 A" |0 L( [8 [( Tthe market.
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( A. x Z" r- h% @/ p6 ^ In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
, ~( h7 z1 q% a; M) w% lJuly, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
. s. y7 C! l3 G# P9 LAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring7 i4 }/ a9 S" m) r
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
' G4 K# p+ A2 y5 }2 \4 N/ p7 h ~& xto the shortage of available inventory.
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Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its0 A9 [% c+ D; q% L# s% e
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains$ V$ W- R: q( V9 y0 k/ H- t5 `% ]
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses) I4 n. t( o! C) X
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
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Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
* n: V3 ]8 {8 Win the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
4 c" d0 t3 U: ^# }unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
: a0 R0 s8 z' z" Ypressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring y7 K1 V: f2 T) X5 z
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer1 n" W6 u" Y$ a5 X$ }% e2 E6 _( `, w" {
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
3 x/ r4 O% j. W* e3 Y( {buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity./ n; q( k* ~! [) s( R7 F
2 w. u& j: g+ P
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
& V; p$ @( l. q+ X9 D4 has activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
b* k8 e% c+ N& n4 qremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,3 ^/ W6 ~' O' c1 C. m: v7 ]1 i0 \) `
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
' S3 F) y: k" N" r5 Xincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
6 H) j ^0 y9 J. |# Uin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
. ~- l, i8 f- ?0 ?& Otowards the end of 2006.
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+ c! E3 L! s: t* J/ f& Q5 ~& z% G9 @7 IWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of# p) U% k7 L/ p& c' L( ^
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable. }! R( E! W; `9 L, t8 U1 }
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
8 a' D0 n* K! a( N5 P/ w V4 fgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to B. g% ~( ] B+ {( k
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
6 d2 b- a8 u) r" `# c9 p3 {. upressure on tight inventory levels.
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" V. ?2 L4 N* b) `0 c" y. ] Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
& E$ B" X; y- c2 C, g6 {1 p4 nfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people2 D# Y7 E# {: ]9 ~; ?( H4 U4 t3 t
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;$ G4 M7 b" S& t. @0 a
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching" l; d( g# w# O! Q% x6 q9 Y
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
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0 O' y _+ }1 h0 L" K% U" t Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
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; Q2 `3 F( B4 O -------------------------------------------------------------------------8 y1 I. z! x5 p0 ]2 i
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey6 ~+ R, l- s$ `3 E- d M; k/ g
-------------------------------------------------------------------------$ }0 g: Y4 q- Y
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q31 {# O$ y, p, h' {+ d- p
Market Average Average % Change Average Average6 I y, @0 y D6 I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------$ c2 P! q! K' r3 P$ h0 v
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
8 }. n* X/ H' Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------& T) r$ U7 d- U- a: ^
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
" E) a W) a% g- L# Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 s0 _2 d2 _- x Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,0006 j6 k3 |, W; k( N2 P' H. D2 {! b
-------------------------------------------------------------------------6 W$ u, }; ?% x& Q) F
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
+ H; e+ O3 G2 x, v' {& t -------------------------------------------------------------------------/ K$ _9 s B4 u- F7 g
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333: j! I; M; U t! C, z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* N% k* `2 k9 J; c$ |: K Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,5830 _# i" A- ?, C) ~* w- m3 [
-------------------------------------------------------------------------* D* a# b K" }- W. A$ Q
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
# h3 L# P6 V; M8 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 r/ i2 M2 p- K3 e7 p+ n Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
& P! s4 m2 X( d* _ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 \; b- U! j! q8 o7 n( c/ ]9 A0 I Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,7665 I/ Y" D1 P$ {( ?/ p+ \: M, h2 q/ Z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------0 J9 Q6 [# v* T( v8 E
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
. a3 r# @6 b# P1 X, u# h, n -------------------------------------------------------------------------
, M( N" S! h0 G1 ^1 f Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
: P7 \. j7 X2 g! V% D2 a. P6 o -------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 K& t p3 e0 F3 l F7 @, d Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
, c: Y' C- Q$ Y I+ J -------------------------------------------------------------------------$ Q3 l4 j3 a6 m) ~' C, H5 \' S' D
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
1 e; d, b; W9 P9 m" \! t, u -------------------------------------------------------------------------) f$ ^6 y9 i4 M: \
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
) t' ^; y! \( ~; P -------------------------------------------------------------------------7 r: V* j1 ?" M9 P, x3 [' {# Z
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,0008 e8 j f& F8 B1 u6 P S, t: d9 x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 n+ z( p6 o" P; @4 \$ v National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
* T0 w( K! x( B& q& V- E -------------------------------------------------------------------------
( Q* @2 h% G' b N9 c: U, ]6 S( k1 {+ m# X5 \2 \- F( I2 v. g
-------------------------------------------------------------
( ^9 Y' F t1 @! A5 N8 N8 a Standard Condominium
* p; t0 W& n( \ -------------------------------------------------------------
6 C# c a2 k5 l3 Z* t 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo2 Y( r5 I8 |+ N% f3 C7 ?
Market % Change Average Average % Change
1 p% }0 @0 f! G- M+ ?3 I8 W" b% Z -------------------------------------------------------------: ^! s; C+ h0 F, G" m5 n2 }. D
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
3 `% P w" _ [& N! M -------------------------------------------------------------& V+ Q+ }) R+ y7 F7 V9 l H& N. F
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
9 w, ?+ M& H' R4 _9 k -------------------------------------------------------------
5 J/ K" d* M6 M6 N Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
+ D }# ~, _, i8 ^ T7 B% S -------------------------------------------------------------
4 j9 d# G8 h5 \- `% G& D* w Saint John N/A - - N/A; V( K7 H: k& Z- P5 x+ \: A0 k1 k
-------------------------------------------------------------& H% `9 j* H9 f, q5 q
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%& O6 g0 i% ~& T; i
-------------------------------------------------------------
+ g4 i( T* Y7 G4 p! L Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
% f5 B+ r. ]+ j- u6 y" K; n -------------------------------------------------------------
) q- U: s. c' c! t9 @ Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%" F: A5 |+ }8 M( V. G
-------------------------------------------------------------
9 H8 [) g9 X) [4 D; V/ E( r Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
5 [/ _$ B x! p! I% h) I9 @ -------------------------------------------------------------, N" U1 e9 S: @+ i0 _, K
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%8 x3 N. ~/ s* Y2 p k
-------------------------------------------------------------
% J& W U! p$ `+ v( G0 J/ r0 b Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
0 Q5 n8 m% x! |0 [ ?8 {' r3 p! \ -------------------------------------------------------------
8 _* j$ N' a: B6 a Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%% d' I5 I2 @5 m. Y% u4 k1 ~ x
-------------------------------------------------------------
# y' D6 S+ Y4 @5 t Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
. x3 b' C3 V+ V: {) @9 ^/ C- J -------------------------------------------------------------
* F4 e% h9 ?: D; V+ m4 d+ f3 S Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
" t; @8 a$ ^3 {5 u/ ?' } -------------------------------------------------------------
. A m+ I! ~( v: g3 F' U# p- F; {- l Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%8 P: P8 v# @3 j7 I, H) v
-------------------------------------------------------------
# r+ k; f; n6 G: ^/ }: V Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%7 a6 A. {. d! c7 |" c9 ] X' @7 i, C
-------------------------------------------------------------
0 I8 t5 g/ r2 q/ e @# p( e& K' G National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
5 w; D, E* g. N9 [ -------------------------------------------------------------8 t- k4 p* F. p( x4 {( j
>>. R6 r! C# ^. f" ]" x7 P. \/ c1 u- U5 V8 ~
K9 P- i. W: X0 p. ` Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined3 _; J8 o' @; C, x/ ^( D4 @5 \
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
$ N. j2 G% C. _5 ~) MJohn and Victoria.
% T. ]4 Q+ n7 C6 G1 U: N8 R9 z Q
1 n( X1 {4 |( x1 h0 z+ k) [ The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
+ x; Q$ D% K1 o/ f. `comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
% g1 y7 E9 b# X+ @; D/ rhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release/ e. O+ l; J d; B6 @: a- W8 [
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price1 k( R2 E. b+ Q
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities5 i$ |/ d' G, j# c; w
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is9 g8 l4 F0 s5 @& `! q
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current# m" o6 ?! t- g
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
; y2 b3 `; @9 u- U" h+ Bversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on, s9 Y7 E% h9 A# Q) N
November 15, 2006.( z0 n: C2 t. T1 o
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of, `1 M$ N+ _# @6 `) \; q- j
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
- ?, s/ `, [4 u, T8 i8 _* pprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
1 S- W; m' _9 R" S# |available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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