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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable , |" Z; }9 X5 c/ G1 p# L
! i0 I: q1 s. ^$ z0 g$ F- t
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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9 j% H9 |- }# m- d TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market5 Q2 z) l+ ?% R) @) s4 x4 f
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
0 L9 C4 A3 t# L2 \quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic9 B" z9 ?8 H, k7 |
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
( }2 K1 C% O% V% ]# o! }0 g7 J4 Wprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
7 o6 v3 c: K8 y8 M9 I9 ?. N' ~7 ~! Nmore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
2 \1 w2 k4 b" b8 W& D9 kQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
9 {3 t3 D+ k. `" z9 H# iLePage Real Estate Services.' M6 S4 E) Q" |5 @
5 { @ d5 }/ r- i& T1 L& F# ~
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters! `/ F0 e K4 f3 G
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
. z; N" O7 Q8 f& R, l( _conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and: D! y, X$ T. Z( d0 G ?
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the2 L; v# N* v8 L5 F, K/ P
residential real estate sector.
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Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation/ G& s( F! p* V x, n
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
! k; W: N8 x4 Byear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
# M$ n& c9 H" p' h/ S(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380' z/ B7 ~! Q/ w- k+ l0 a
(+13.2%).
4 H' M" O, T8 s* t+ Y- q+ ^) `
, y! E" b& T8 K; E4 }, J9 x& R "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth6 m6 P5 Q/ I& O3 B. z
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
$ i8 u( B1 W* I5 Y8 w7 dfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are+ s( @3 Q' i& T L2 K
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,5 L$ q1 B4 q% [: H* U
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.7 i! O' f' O- A1 t
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We5 A! K6 r: R0 J7 a* e3 ?: {) \
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
0 ^% |. y+ {$ Q. ]2 l L6 d+ o# Vbalanced market."% c+ I C1 p5 I1 F- [3 w( @1 @
: y4 A, G9 f1 V Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,% K6 B( [- W `; F
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
+ G0 V) I: J7 y" Fto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
; k, Z- R; w0 O0 x3 O( [throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
( y3 w- c5 `" o/ I. G& Henergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,. \9 _6 ^7 L( Q7 |: E* L5 [
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record" F1 x- T- F ^. |1 N
breaking price appreciations.
8 s' Q4 |$ @4 P! C8 I) t) K
! F" o7 ]; e; W+ {+ Z4 K8 `- B Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
8 @& X1 }4 m! N. u/ v+ {4 u) z5 meconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
! J5 p- Z; x7 s$ I2 t8 Y/ mlargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.: K- }, X$ Z+ n2 o
, G4 G* N# c7 m0 h, C) N+ v In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
7 N/ c. @% Y: J$ D7 `% H m8 d0 Seconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer y( [8 t* y/ m) t0 ~
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off: d: r! v$ M I# e( P6 o
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.6 @# C0 L8 l6 c# ^7 L
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers+ t* g( X5 a- S9 {- t9 {. H
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of7 r8 n, L9 O y A/ b+ X9 p
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
~3 ^; A' e" g8 P6 _# }# V [
R+ K! G% ~. o7 y' s$ x While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing7 W2 n! ~0 L5 T+ x# q- ?; V I" V
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
, f, R) `, X$ e+ U* ^financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
& ^+ q, Y% h+ f& k6 W5 rare markedly different than those found in the United States.
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Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the+ G. B. m2 e$ @$ j! B
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
6 S* @2 }( `$ p$ S1 x+ Ffavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
$ ? g5 A/ F7 }+ y; Trelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general8 Y# k/ `# H5 S7 R5 G
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the6 A" e4 T$ s! X& k6 m0 K2 c+ O" B$ d
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
0 N: b1 _ i. Z. x taggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization0 U- e, w2 ?% ~% A6 A& v, Y
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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# X; a& Q8 {: C- ]# j" B# o8 e# P+ I <<
. `- g2 ^+ t/ P, [' z7 |% g REGIONAL SUMMARIES. i1 f0 X' X8 S5 \" Q! W
>>
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! k! w5 d) k6 I2 {6 e$ i% C" y" Y Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
" s4 ~* ^; s- \, f* N2 PHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate, N' z- n/ w# p
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
" h0 F1 y( r' t7 Tlooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of; H; I( S! X( u
renovations.& C# G% @- f3 i- e1 v& Q
. n ?! Y0 [/ ~8 X( Q& g; @
The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight" i W. {* A2 u% q1 {+ V
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation/ p# }) {6 M ]2 R$ W1 d
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and& z6 ]. H; o- c5 L
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.# M. [6 I. R2 i) @, r6 L% w
" \: ~0 F; d& |! S The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer+ K5 z, L( r* d, @
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the" }8 a6 M/ a& S) b1 m4 ?% T8 J
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
}5 B: Y$ o6 l2 [3 Q+ w/ j600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores( [- E( N: O5 u% F
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes3 F+ h, n/ S$ Y+ j" V
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.' ?1 U6 z9 V. M* f G O
' ^$ u% p; ]& f; x- o" [% c
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced, ~* w- J. ]! u1 Y) T6 i
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their5 A. D7 Y* } N% ~4 y5 |* I* @
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers. c. {5 ^" p s
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian- r8 d, i. ~7 q9 W& k5 Z Y
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing, k6 l$ D% S& Z5 @* n1 u9 I5 \
buyers with more options when looking for a home. ~$ m c. j( n* q2 ^
& |) f$ A% t( X# d3 S! |- q Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly" z8 f7 u! l7 y9 [+ w) L; o/ V) |
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
' P# ]3 W* \( ]! vpriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,; k: V1 t. S' X
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
$ H5 B4 U, y0 p% cfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
2 y/ J/ O* E0 l) @5 @- m7 Iprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory2 J: ^: y1 r" _
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting1 T, ?- r7 C3 j% b
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
% p- U4 x. [. }. v0 K7 P: owhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the4 p7 {. ~1 a" m! p+ F; H
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
" S$ B8 e( U1 k: V) Vmaking a purchase.( N( g7 T4 X( w' W
$ T( }- g6 K% o2 d. s% E Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
& J1 G5 G, n/ ?4 Kmarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
~# A+ c7 G+ l2 T* P& Y' pconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
, J9 \' ~' Q, }0 |" Y& bcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting0 m6 q9 M* m% t+ U1 t% ^+ B
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown. O: ]* @4 f* N2 z1 u4 M
amenities.
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The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
0 n# P! l1 H: L o" a9 E( s/ bthroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand/ w5 h) e. K$ a& F7 ~6 h
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has0 T6 i1 f/ G$ o. n$ y% r, o& s
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been7 T4 B' F) K& [
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle, I) J' ]0 Q, h* T2 b6 J4 q
residence, rather than for investment.
; [3 V9 A; w N3 e; z" D3 O6 P: M4 m
' c$ G5 {. C& O, s6 g The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
; Z9 D2 s6 x0 u/ qhouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
$ r* o0 C5 B5 M2 L/ iin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
4 e% z$ R+ ]" I% F/ Z( iconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
4 z6 L8 l* U8 zrate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter+ A% g3 k7 R( f7 F, I g7 L
the market.' \3 @" u- Z* Z8 u0 Y0 Y
# ~' L5 O4 J) R- f' Y7 t( [ In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
! [' r8 K# E2 m; ]8 |July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
5 g! p9 E" b& x l: xAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
Z0 [5 u B' \8 l, x. rmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
3 G& x& L! \; \( S/ gto the shortage of available inventory.5 t! F7 H* g! L
% t6 \: Q0 X; N; A
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
# [3 Q1 o( o3 z# w$ S9 z( r# omomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains$ k3 o5 X+ W! X( n
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
! r, \! Y- n6 B: x# c1 I6 F9 @struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.0 j' U* a( O$ x: {( Y8 \
5 v2 n2 J% r; }/ W, v- W* ?
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
6 S- D- h/ q8 Min the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low$ y( y( }9 S; ^" i! ?
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
# `# a x6 @/ j' w% O; xpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
' B, Y0 T' h& j- a3 I) ?6 Cprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
+ r4 T. n7 P z& e: s% _, O+ Dseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as( }. R4 d) Q% `
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.- t( W" N z+ N0 |9 @
$ W( U0 A# R% V g* } Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
* t' n; a' H9 M) Oas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
& U0 n0 M S3 \remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,% T6 A/ Q- u( l9 |
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices& U- d7 q2 j8 k2 t* P
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
* Z( M. K. w+ f; L# _* V: a, v% Nin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
# @4 h9 O6 J( N' [2 Ltowards the end of 2006. & W; w4 b' x* a* u8 E0 Z
5 _2 E z6 V) t. J. t( n9 R; Y
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of: x4 }# L. z$ T) E0 C2 z
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
% |+ z* v2 h& {( b" x' x- gto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
; W8 T$ S M6 I3 Lgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to2 X8 ]" x! i' {( T4 x: G4 k# k
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added6 } ~' i/ Q% r. ^
pressure on tight inventory levels.
& u; L' i3 `* q& x9 A
% [3 B# M }6 Y' j; m; b) L) n Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic& E; e4 Y8 ?5 r
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people( w) z, K$ o4 E* M' f4 V, K8 [) E5 {
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
2 i0 K3 `: p3 u( ]) |8 Ywhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
# u+ p! Y% l( @% E# mfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
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) l0 q% W# D; y# }. x) Y4 c4 C <<7 A/ O5 m# S- z/ r6 @! U
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006! j: v( \7 B9 `& ~6 }8 N# ~# L0 p7 J
5 j5 ]& d/ {; _; x# z! w6 p& b: Y& w -------------------------------------------------------------------------) r. l) w! B- }% E- {& Q
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
/ B0 i% t5 M$ q: U -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* C2 o9 k; }8 C: Q7 V" x 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
) n m3 k/ O. T5 o& f+ x Market Average Average % Change Average Average
m- H3 p9 b k/ W$ T -------------------------------------------------------------------------) F4 ^: q4 E% P# @$ V
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000: f. u+ O/ \! V7 x" W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 L. k4 L* }+ H& Z0 I0 o; v Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
. V$ {4 n. \! f9 ~. g( V( I -------------------------------------------------------------------------
" F; C6 U2 t0 t* q. A Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,0009 M, \% h- {* a8 N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 w9 V5 o3 _' w$ }. }6 i Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - - G h# z% ^. u# R5 u
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 \/ Z1 Z0 H4 }( W/ V5 F; L St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333' U9 |( l( C/ C3 T5 Y9 F$ T: J
-------------------------------------------------------------------------" ?; _& K: _9 I
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
# F! w9 O/ D+ ~" _ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
% `0 e4 h0 p% ~- G Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
0 S* t0 v) X0 N j1 \$ D -------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 K% K Z! y* b$ ~ Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
3 |0 M6 S& f% K -------------------------------------------------------------------------
" _. h, C! Q; P0 w Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766% M5 S% ^& Q9 W: \6 j1 f7 V1 X1 ^5 ^
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
, `9 W0 U6 u: I% C Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707# {1 K- a5 F7 T" E( e
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
# ~. C) N) s- ?7 k5 S, Q; d1 j Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,5006 y7 m" u$ g Q% _! t7 a7 u% Q0 I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------1 s7 r( @$ {/ P' s2 ?
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389+ u7 q% Q9 Y$ C6 {5 |1 Y
-------------------------------------------------------------------------5 P ^% [( d# e6 \9 v$ ]# z/ g( V
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
3 t) j3 l! y9 C# A1 g3 L0 ` -------------------------------------------------------------------------" _$ S% ?6 `- _* f/ P; {3 z
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500& U2 f) S$ G5 y7 C: a, H+ C8 Y( F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------/ B3 S$ v1 z+ B" e5 c
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000" [3 e1 d+ p8 u$ ]' I# P7 }5 V: Z& H
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 |: }& b% Q# }3 d# z0 G5 S. G National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860. ]( k5 N- x0 X& g1 T
-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ R3 x6 J( G* d3 m3 ?$ D: ^
0 L2 S+ C- W0 o/ ~& h3 d6 G2 Z
-------------------------------------------------------------/ V v' A5 B: q4 S) F- M: z' R
Standard Condominium
& w$ D# p" l$ m( x- k: ? -------------------------------------------------------------( w6 v7 @8 @& n+ z' m4 N5 Q
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo' a: U3 Q7 z% a9 u2 ]. _3 `1 i6 A8 R
Market % Change Average Average % Change3 M& t. Z5 @' y' |/ b# z
-------------------------------------------------------------
3 a! r5 j7 m. X Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%0 H: x2 m4 q, m- P
-------------------------------------------------------------
0 k2 M: v5 R# \9 Z* {! } Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
4 u! B# ]9 c9 w -------------------------------------------------------------' P% m# h1 v4 q5 \% X
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
' o5 d& t2 U0 e8 A ------------------------------------------------------------- _0 P+ d& j2 N/ L: w8 b" W
Saint John N/A - - N/A+ B ]7 u1 _- P( n0 R
-------------------------------------------------------------; h( d0 _2 |9 ]2 ^% M s
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
0 [) r" S! z ^+ z- F -------------------------------------------------------------
; d3 F. S8 ~" a5 y+ A+ }% W) F Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%7 _1 n: e6 {" v# \( ], Z
-------------------------------------------------------------. B3 M3 }; T# @! g
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%( Z( j. _) z+ `0 U& o4 a6 f7 [
-------------------------------------------------------------- M9 W$ b# H3 t1 I
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
0 D+ ?2 h+ V V5 c2 J% Z7 y5 C: S -------------------------------------------------------------
* A' s! J3 i% z, }9 S Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
" P1 C6 w% G: ~* c -------------------------------------------------------------
1 h1 F. E# z$ g* C5 V Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%. G, k5 z6 U, ]$ J
-------------------------------------------------------------/ A6 X' P! _: l; Z
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%- S8 ~* s! X7 y# Y" k9 ~. ]; L
-------------------------------------------------------------
, \. M; L$ E0 G3 V1 [+ q Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
. ?6 e" g* V# m -------------------------------------------------------------
# N9 V2 ~7 f5 V7 M' K/ f4 T Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
0 a- O5 Y; Y: ?" U: Y+ b+ { M -------------------------------------------------------------' V+ P& R4 A s9 T& g
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
~9 W5 f0 R. T7 r* n( M -------------------------------------------------------------
3 c1 k6 @/ @* u! _' ^3 J" ~; A# g( F Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
7 N( U. d/ L" o8 V1 @ -------------------------------------------------------------
4 a/ r, Q1 f: h8 `& A National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%9 ?1 P1 o2 P, |1 H0 r
-------------------------------------------------------------
( d; E2 Q7 {" |3 ]4 T* l+ G" F >>, }" w% ? c" q ~. J
/ Y) i' S6 G) Y( @3 j w Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined, l8 w* `8 S, P! t: V P1 i- j
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint) i$ P" p0 ?6 _, s
John and Victoria.
3 F( K% E2 l6 H6 a* X7 v
) Y+ o9 P U& Y8 F. b The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most; j* J. j+ T2 ?) t) t2 n7 L
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of$ J: N! p, e3 z; @: B& t
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
7 p* }; i4 A v2 U7 jreferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price0 h0 w0 T" W- J0 C
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
* o; y0 C9 r2 k# p P# ~across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is# C: _9 c* X2 t; b6 T
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current' m9 b: R+ b! o2 O
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable5 _/ y. r0 v8 j7 i+ K7 L
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on" s1 z$ J/ C, b" E" H
November 15, 2006.
4 {1 Q9 f2 T' k Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of) Y3 Q. E9 e0 c3 s5 k+ m2 y
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
/ \/ ^. {- @% B$ [. d5 f3 ?0 d4 ^+ _provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
3 ]* o9 i6 ^0 W, mavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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