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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
8 K% O: O! w& y
3 ~; u, q! @' K2 z* g6 d( H3 ]- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -6 Q: C& n7 t# c. }3 s9 X! ^1 g
: _) ]. |) c# N. A( n" d7 {
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
9 _+ M9 b6 y7 N" ~* e+ Uexhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third. C% E4 [$ _) _
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
/ W! ~5 G; [. X6 J4 Iin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit+ \7 m5 X# D, f, K$ j
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
, d$ j0 m. O4 ]! M1 R: S. B3 `+ kmore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,4 k/ J, \, e! T
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal# f7 K+ [& o0 o" K3 Q9 }+ F4 |
LePage Real Estate Services.) r0 m5 \3 x L( k) e
& g4 r- L/ l4 h& Z d' S Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters" j% [6 D3 [: @* j: m
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic1 V- i, B- H5 l9 C
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
. Z" c0 B) L+ Isound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the7 a8 w! k) L; o" T
residential real estate sector.
/ m: ^! ]+ e9 L0 K! b0 l* E+ k f
! Q; Q( K1 ~$ l5 K) R) B4 O Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
" E% L* p6 e) soccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
& i, H4 `* C6 cyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562% T: H7 ?3 G: H
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
& X) f3 W# b# g& M(+13.2%).
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"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth6 m2 ^( e/ _# f* F7 ]
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
7 _ k' {- s) |" Sfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are0 j5 d" n Q& I- I- @+ y* d4 j
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
1 G/ x2 H9 r7 w5 i$ O2 xpresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
) J- E" i' l: q6 x' D8 q"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
# p! @/ W" V7 p( F% vwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
5 p6 s* }' v, X/ ibalanced market."# n, W" s, a, }" {. f. v
8 L) }+ k# s$ h2 z8 d- v. F, m Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
4 U$ s& c* W9 gconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift2 a4 P$ r# U5 R9 }8 x* P. B
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued( z8 v- f. Q8 D$ H+ Z0 J4 o$ ^
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core) R; x' @2 t' f' G" T
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,4 h; d% \% Y4 y/ R7 ]9 R
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
6 {( l; X+ I6 u, ?% Y# ~: Wbreaking price appreciations.
0 f7 W! G7 r5 Y( }2 W F. E' D% |: D( l t7 r
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
5 \' C# d" d) _. M5 t8 R- Deconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
, O6 U4 ]# z% a$ d- m1 r7 wlargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
' }$ n% e2 ]% Z( q
. H0 I, N8 R* J; M0 ?6 q" S In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
: R: S$ C/ S& J3 Weconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer% E: t! ~. d, j* x, M5 ~
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
( l, ~2 d; s5 k, e* A) kslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.; a F" x: _- x2 d7 r" _0 K
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers4 a% O& T7 ^ [. `# Q
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of- G7 ^# k3 U8 ]! H5 e! x# \
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
7 \+ L* [4 B$ V$ i; a
% z3 D; L6 z/ W. z8 b y While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing4 c ]' l: c- p) ^$ e5 k- y! T0 H
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and' g7 `9 [) a7 }. [$ T8 C
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
* D% T' k; k. O4 e# ~are markedly different than those found in the United States.( g" A5 G- c4 O; Z" Z8 ~0 {
: e& n' P9 N: r' i) d Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
( E7 m3 T; N4 l5 ]' c5 hAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's% d: g, f* e9 C) J" o
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the& d1 T2 |; F4 V4 A! q+ ~
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
; x8 q' {2 S: G1 a& b2 ^6 ^% E7 |3 P! Jaffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the4 Z. z8 o" M. H% H; p
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and. e; F1 N7 t$ V+ Q3 o9 n8 s
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization4 b$ Z, O. ~% j1 o' ~& a
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."1 c3 \/ k0 B2 Z3 \$ Q
! _4 a# P. B ?. h2 z! N
<<
4 P; W8 C' n8 h8 o REGIONAL SUMMARIES
+ A7 m/ ?$ \! ^/ ^0 g+ Z >>
1 }9 M& ^- ~& u6 ~0 H2 }" `. S1 k$ L" i; D5 r$ G1 j
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
& J6 d% K- q9 b0 {; p$ l8 M0 W, `Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate! \- s( P) }: g( Q
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time& @( H' }% W9 o* N
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
! p; ~4 E4 f# g: Q x2 T |renovations., e; k- x; I. |- _% C
E* W: k# S( u: O, O1 C9 H The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight7 f( t# z! }/ N, ~* v) ^$ z8 n
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
6 I2 Y9 J, \5 m0 b" i* d; j" Ycompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and4 W; u4 E7 f5 F I k$ S
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.$ }1 n/ ~) }1 O4 V+ L
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The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
4 k% W- P- J# P7 ?+ qslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the5 c x$ J u$ }* Z, \0 @
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
) N, a8 O! T7 w4 F9 l600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores6 ^ f- Y; N7 Q4 X
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
5 d- a% W! s3 v# A4 I) H" Wand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
' e* T9 w6 F. W2 U, Z
' A8 I# o3 f; x- @& I6 n2 T0 ` In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
" S$ G2 V6 f5 R- g& n5 A9 `# Lconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
- {2 u- a3 G- B8 g2 c# N3 [& }* b' Lhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers7 D* M) o8 t+ H) p! t; z
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
7 H" |4 c: i/ [) e6 P: ?dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing2 l* c9 m" O" K& t3 v
buyers with more options when looking for a home.
. [* s& ^/ j h" h
: C2 _% n8 J9 C, Y! [4 c, v2 b Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly9 \9 S$ A4 Y9 I# n: w$ B
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes2 N' p' U( I" V3 z
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005," p+ a; w7 t/ J- L
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last: `8 i2 H' T" h% p# I+ j1 P+ f
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.9 s/ \4 w K k4 c5 _$ J2 @
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
0 c; h2 N3 ]1 ?3 |prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
* p- q/ h2 _3 ] ?- Klevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting$ B6 a8 }" w% U2 E6 S2 G3 ~* T
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,: c' u+ Y, ?2 H- H! L. J0 B1 Z/ ~# E
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
8 }: {9 Q& T! w/ d* opressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before1 y# p% ^5 S! e$ n: T
making a purchase.
! O3 \) H9 V& h8 W3 T8 i% w2 L( w3 a# q; x, O2 T$ ^4 b4 Y
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing+ E$ b1 r1 e* ~9 c* X$ V
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
7 D$ T, `. p4 [% {3 G3 ~# _( Mconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
* B" A- R- g: n @; _centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
* ~! J8 i L4 M Y4 ~attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown, e0 l9 s5 ]0 Q* r/ M- G5 d2 H. \. @7 p
amenities.
" ]' H1 q2 t8 L, v
5 o% i. l1 {1 v1 o The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
6 I0 O% ?& g4 ~7 f7 S! l' kthroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand# `$ Z' q, I- v2 J( z) }
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has4 G" R- E) }7 D' K
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
1 o2 y' Y x9 d3 |driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle2 m0 C8 F, }( S+ G' H
residence, rather than for investment.: X! x3 L$ [& {* J4 z C0 L2 H
" j, w4 [+ D% R% z1 n, K* @8 O" t! ^ The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
0 n& N# V# R4 _ d! K" Zhouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
5 W5 f, D# t9 d2 j7 Y# L- g# Rin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
1 A- |; A2 @1 A% {0 ^3 V o# Kconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization, D N' }6 q# ^+ S9 c$ M+ ], T, ]! O9 s
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
8 x6 `5 _+ n' z0 p$ z, mthe market.7 ~- N+ q4 `( @6 X
. F* i( k7 N' |7 o7 c) c0 K In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through- k4 ]( e+ f& B& {5 g
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In+ a: o7 S5 u0 c. B$ S6 F% s4 o
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
0 E& u* B' G) G) p' S1 Z Rmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due8 r4 i8 n* p0 e' m- ~. N
to the shortage of available inventory.
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Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its3 n; \& f$ |, w0 [
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
9 o" v1 t6 ?2 i% B" c6 L% q' evibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses4 t9 Z# l' ~+ o# g
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
7 d# U& I/ {. W7 w, w, m8 L1 Z
8 M. l2 z, I' ? Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases0 h, Z, M( k# q
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low2 j3 }. K# v+ Y) U
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
1 C/ |2 Y" u/ W1 Npressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring) x% T8 G% B, ?0 u- x
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
* n9 j4 V G) ^season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
& H. q% x* f, A0 Q2 i# T. ]buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
) A* j! v+ i/ T
b! q6 n0 ? r8 Z Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter( B. [8 N6 u0 E( U
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton2 X a& L7 u8 s1 K* C) Z
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
+ S) H: M( y& {, @0 Gmaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices4 u7 j6 v" L) J9 s3 J
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve. m; [- _: ~8 u+ e, }
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
' a) y, [* i$ C& d& T7 ctowards the end of 2006.
' B4 ~# m2 u3 w0 D" G4 S+ m' Y9 x! @9 B. E) p7 _6 N3 Q
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of5 w% k9 c3 R1 Z* s* c
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
- E4 b8 P1 O0 u5 s# ^. H6 i7 ~4 ito meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse) R9 ]! Y8 m' B' `! s2 m
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to) e h* a6 f$ u7 e5 c
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added: u+ p, k" s+ V3 M* \
pressure on tight inventory levels.
5 z" G& c; k$ i/ \7 k! U( r( l, r4 ]' N* T; E% H
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
2 Z; |( [+ s+ S+ Wfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
8 ?$ B$ v* L/ u- P; |1 _into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
, j0 x- X7 v8 U- r9 v& Jwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching/ X' ^, {. C& g# Q1 j; T
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
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+ H" C6 T0 n! ~ S5 Y <<
6 G$ n/ w) Y$ D! J9 e Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006" T% I3 K( B' v& E0 N
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------2 w- ?6 ^7 B! }& q9 x+ [5 C
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey. a: S% O" F" d; F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
' L1 c% o( X$ Y+ S4 e 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
0 J; v; x( J( H4 y8 y; Q Market Average Average % Change Average Average2 h" L+ d# `5 A) g. j
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 L8 U4 D N$ s- L( g; {' t1 o) f Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,0000 B* g, O1 a) b+ i% g
-------------------------------------------------------------------------' Z) p0 x' `' }' ?5 q
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000! H5 B' ?- {' ^( T
-------------------------------------------------------------------------7 G" S0 T: p3 p8 {" [4 E+ Z# _
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,0006 t4 C" [4 L- W; D) o
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ S& o4 T2 ?$ z4 I Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
& a9 {# _6 x+ Q$ |1 [ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ [/ B* X6 C( j. _. C: x St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333) Q" w4 x2 a0 I$ w% \5 ?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
; S, e6 g4 T% L* S Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,5830 d1 G" C1 s3 m) F2 [
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* K; x B' N" i6 G; | Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
) n$ @% z7 d' @: x -------------------------------------------------------------------------" ~3 k; y2 y+ J* L5 m1 m% e0 e
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,2501 {3 F( a e5 i$ }$ m& P
-------------------------------------------------------------------------6 v7 @ j3 ?- \2 ?! ?; K8 `
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
# S) D& G, H# y% u6 s -------------------------------------------------------------------------
( M9 X# ], X- W1 K: v. Z Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707: V+ z) M9 a. h
-------------------------------------------------------------------------' X' P, F4 j3 F) p* v
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500. g: B7 E3 V; t- O2 C E' b
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 c: i5 P& i! y" R7 N Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
8 m+ ^- n* j ^ \& U& j0 v3 L -------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 W7 \' v: N, Z* m6 m7 i Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714* m& S1 [3 a! Q9 m) k3 {0 S& [5 h% b
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
" D4 [; [7 h L" e3 m! a Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,5006 t* s0 Y+ h* u a( O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ K$ V9 q$ n. ]- W Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000# N7 z3 j" `! k; `+ F# K% D% D
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 }5 ~7 D" E1 }' X5 U- u$ q National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860# X: b$ N- w$ }; @9 d: J
-------------------------------------------------------------------------0 t/ Z' R. B- B+ [
% W8 E3 b4 |+ U d -------------------------------------------------------------1 l8 j- f, f+ `& Q9 l) P# _5 }
Standard Condominium
4 g7 v2 ^3 @: A% g. m -------------------------------------------------------------9 [+ k9 n! G2 {/ T* p
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
# _0 k: K' B6 R' k, m Market % Change Average Average % Change
$ A @! \7 N2 K" p -------------------------------------------------------------
8 k& e7 l" U0 p5 `. R9 a* @' A Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%0 {& x' b3 x0 q9 ~4 h
-------------------------------------------------------------
5 q( z* D% U% Q4 e" |# n1 A Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
! M* I7 v; R$ K" t h -------------------------------------------------------------
$ J# Y! c6 O, F P Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
+ d# d9 X' q% T; O* C( u8 M% } -------------------------------------------------------------
" T1 i6 @0 E- ~: T2 j: H Saint John N/A - - N/A
( k& Q o2 Q% j8 |, d6 i/ z -------------------------------------------------------------, D2 a6 i3 a- N; n8 I- Z* w' H
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%0 v3 ^7 n M3 _; N
-------------------------------------------------------------2 x! Z. `1 [- }$ x
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
' Z( [4 h% C2 w$ q+ a* D -------------------------------------------------------------
: `$ k4 o# J6 V1 m. g, Z Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
% D( R+ T. }1 ^ -------------------------------------------------------------: I; D. y. J& s/ a* W
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
# @/ Q' D5 J+ q3 g1 u* |9 n -------------------------------------------------------------
, }2 R) P D/ x& _ Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%/ K0 o: o( {4 U, I- n
-------------------------------------------------------------9 \- x. w8 _+ K- [3 p
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
) z2 W6 Z$ r: ~, E1 O -------------------------------------------------------------
: j g. h5 l0 o9 \ Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%0 I* x4 X9 \1 O. }. u
-------------------------------------------------------------4 O' j3 k% M' Q/ [) K. S
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
6 p6 d" F+ |/ |4 @$ N8 Q, ~ -------------------------------------------------------------
; L: U+ [2 P0 u! V8 o Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
6 f: Z( ^# L( r" E -------------------------------------------------------------
7 L! p, d' q% b0 ]+ H Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%7 \% M( F' e% K! F6 f% p: Y
-------------------------------------------------------------" i: N0 A3 ^3 x- G2 x
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%7 Z( t) x/ }0 `' e
-------------------------------------------------------------
; J) A6 ?6 M9 j National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%# X( b1 G, H: I' J9 a
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 v) I8 j: P9 r >>3 N7 e2 h6 e, n' t! _- K
. u2 W5 @& ^5 s Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined) F8 r. H8 Q) p
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint" g( J& B3 T8 j. e( w- c' L$ x
John and Victoria.* M) F2 Y$ u# s1 M3 H
% l% q/ ^, l& V* b- h! ?# {: h The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
; e; C3 {7 i( O! A: _comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
- e& L3 @1 B4 ^/ I3 Y8 H! y# ]housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release- m( k9 O- R: ~( ~- i
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
' h+ a0 v8 n4 K/ T$ \trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
1 n5 L6 {1 M; I& |& ~" macross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is: _+ |6 |/ ~- ?. b4 R- {6 J
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
% x/ _; v, m5 {% C, X c+ B ^8 z) Bfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable7 |5 e6 q9 I7 X0 r
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
7 G$ B4 J2 S. W: I9 i6 F# T! tNovember 15, 2006.
" i& K& R0 [3 G8 e2 ] Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
" {! _! P a) r$ J6 t5 G1 mfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge8 Y- h: N& {* @! ~4 b: I7 t
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is2 S0 j2 W) _ v9 _
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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