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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable 5 n( D g* J) y( W
6 a& V$ _8 J% F; j0 |& G- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
5 S0 |, r7 D% r. y; o( d/ _1 T6 h. V# {) W
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market: r' g* f8 Z7 L5 P/ F* T
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third4 e$ Q+ k; U* V3 Y; S- @
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
- B' y1 ]2 }0 F' `6 u. h$ d5 ein the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
' r0 d9 X. S9 z) Z, K4 |0 dprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
7 {6 y& N5 e8 R$ _4 j. Omore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,( B) I% {3 ^/ u. t3 ~9 w, [! o
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
# C \, D" k. s) e1 c9 M! b- H8 sLePage Real Estate Services.
" a; x' s+ L4 c3 W9 Z4 c+ i) ?) C3 n! b9 ]1 l+ ^
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
( y* _8 k6 D: oare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic2 X9 V1 L9 \' v8 G9 v. a
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and) p9 r3 a3 j I
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the5 N8 g2 r1 N- r7 y
residential real estate sector.
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Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation+ a. h: p& V% f, P# A
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
0 n0 Y, p' K/ A/ R6 o. Uyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
0 l7 n$ T: m8 Z. B(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,3809 y) V8 q, w! A, O6 ?
(+13.2%)./ b! ?$ A' N U; C7 u* b
# S2 i9 o4 }! p7 N! `$ r5 U% f7 S: u "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
9 |0 p2 N* \! Vduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the w' E& T8 q2 m7 E
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are) z* {8 I) _3 `. G& [) I
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
* Y# n: C# s- A( K6 Z4 |president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.8 s9 j3 Z- V6 V* w/ `) W
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
, n# k, ~; p6 f+ jwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
/ V$ y# y7 j+ {; U: ?* Ibalanced market."% d7 A4 p" R. g" r- A0 V i
6 e( s* p: F7 ~# Y0 S' I
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
2 y! H% U' \, \& B1 e) Bconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift+ }& \+ `- h/ c9 D. `& ~7 ^
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
- n; H! ~7 I) M0 a% Mthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
$ X; Z. M: ]8 [2 q5 ienergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,4 s- R+ ]1 t1 l! T8 E% C+ N
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record7 j$ W0 N) I4 c0 ^9 G
breaking price appreciations.
0 L' Z: Z# C$ {" i
! n2 p+ M9 F0 G- y% ]% e6 I! a, ^5 [ Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding R k) L2 G# e0 g6 ?
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the4 h) r# H+ _5 v: L/ v
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.5 y" `+ z" a& A0 a& A8 C
5 S, o4 ~ P' t1 N: u8 u4 v% D In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid* d0 M/ d8 @5 M- l# K
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
' z7 q, E7 T |5 l# M/ Zconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
4 F4 Y8 P B* A% w" K& |slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.! V( [/ J+ r* o/ n0 q0 x
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers. Z$ I; n! d8 u6 H; v5 W
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of& [0 w" Y [& k. ?; e1 T6 p: H: a
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
! C. t: Q- L* r: j6 w7 b$ I
/ o8 o6 P2 `& ]! d" L7 V While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
; |: r% k# _ L% lmarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and; d, p$ N4 t9 ^* V
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
6 |, P2 m' b f; g9 ?are markedly different than those found in the United States.( l. b& k( e8 b
! r) o0 Y& x% L5 L Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
' \% U0 S& i% ~8 l% ~* Q" {2 tAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
& J, @& T; ]8 C8 S4 j7 @4 h8 Efavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the5 M$ m" B9 s% k& m
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
7 j8 F9 t3 c+ A+ zaffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the* h& I n! M% R0 ]0 S1 }- O
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
. y. O' e5 X0 h% s: Z" X" G$ j$ W7 Naggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
+ s- @# r% A3 R$ T+ _mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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$ ^! ]. w' M0 ~1 \1 u8 u8 n& [1 ~ <<1 ?( o8 D5 R5 o. Z
REGIONAL SUMMARIES% E Y0 k& s. t
>>9 U5 o/ t. ~5 n2 i: s$ A
" a; E; G8 q$ I
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
6 N% J+ p0 ^+ B8 {" l$ uHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
; X! m j( {; qof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time: I) f' R A( d1 g5 ?) B
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of7 _9 u8 r) R4 W8 K( u, T
renovations.
+ p" T9 q( i7 R b# ?+ ?9 @" X, v+ ~# D X( x: y H
The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight9 \* s5 K* s. [0 l# _/ r$ A, H
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation( }# `; x# u% o
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
+ D1 h6 v& A/ u0 \( f# dSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
" {) Q# u" x7 y, C& ~! G
2 @6 J; O8 |: @ The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
* e- p" @: a+ B3 B2 I# Sslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the5 G2 X. C3 g6 H
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new$ ^3 o* y" b% i e
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
/ F* B* Q y5 O( H& Q9 _+ z' hto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes) g; v* ~! N5 g, G5 A& V' N
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.! _$ a4 a# o% w+ e6 e& D4 j7 i7 z+ [
! G4 _9 K5 s7 ^! S, E6 i
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced' G, [8 m' F( {0 B8 x1 U& D
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
$ ~- b$ E2 ?) g0 W' Vhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
, p$ \4 G* r# n% [+ Lwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
% i9 [7 i+ t" ^ S6 t7 S5 Wdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing" J: |" Z" a& q
buyers with more options when looking for a home.) g" _4 j# g* h; [" ]1 `! q1 V+ P% D0 H1 \
7 i r9 F7 x+ g) e Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
9 x2 ^, R' v ~3 N( x+ h1 yamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes, | }8 r0 \8 P
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
3 n% |6 a C0 N: U# J/ ?. Aas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
& R5 J5 K5 ?! I) p6 J D! bfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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0 J7 _& b E k. g. h5 J Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
I# f% R/ p# x: L. bprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
+ t+ F$ y( c$ r3 X, Slevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
( Z6 O3 {* b$ c. _; Hfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,% u& c4 Q0 c" B
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
; T3 A8 o7 J1 p1 }( _3 w% A4 Upressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
1 y# N8 |6 J9 E" Hmaking a purchase.
' U @3 n0 G' Z2 S2 V
) u4 u/ G& x3 T: H Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing. L6 Z4 }! k* r9 k
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong7 ~. t/ m3 h" l% H6 s
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city4 n; J- Z& C c
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
+ C0 Y' D+ S% n5 e2 s5 pattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown, [/ u! T5 _: m4 ~( u/ J
amenities.+ \8 r2 i5 p7 E/ G$ U, O
4 s1 p9 h: Q9 h5 f6 }1 p The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels2 I0 O* a% F: J; @) c
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand: a) T4 S9 G- O( X
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
! y- q$ l) i; J$ Z+ s1 ]3 Tcontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
+ t( n/ T0 l6 h8 Mdriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
4 H* W: N: B' Z0 vresidence, rather than for investment.
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The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
: s2 V. A% ^7 _9 Uhouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
4 A0 N+ e0 r5 C: g( ]* T' uin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer1 S: _. V% v/ T$ @% Z
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
7 ^$ Z$ ^& y5 E2 k* P$ O [rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
3 I, @" H0 J: s1 b1 D9 i$ S7 Kthe market.
% k4 K7 c7 Q4 o5 ~4 ?6 G4 `
, \* X/ a9 l* ~! @! m In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through; k! E" ` ^6 E
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
, E8 T# J2 m. D7 m0 O6 KAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring2 W2 V5 J; `2 d6 T3 K- V
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due, _: c% Y% w }
to the shortage of available inventory.- E" V) p5 ~" ?' _
% q( y+ ?5 T. N$ a" }. o( W Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
; ?: E# c0 V( A# @. ?8 \momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
0 W/ x4 M/ n pvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses, t3 p2 d2 U' C" x' r" U6 F0 j% r, C
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
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Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
, C: ^/ y0 [$ f- @in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
, ?# e) f/ E' V$ |5 Nunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
! V9 ]% W4 M& d) O) bpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
. ^% \1 Z' ]: i% Yprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
$ j, {0 O) i+ `& Zseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as w* _+ q! [$ r5 }0 z9 M+ U8 {
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.3 L* R# d# J% n+ o% o8 F6 Y
7 {' t7 W( w% [+ r) b M9 o
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter3 m7 }. k" S0 c( | w, C
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton* Z, F: J+ ^/ D! n! n* N
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,0 C' [3 o8 \1 R' j6 j$ y/ o& P& w& f
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices& L8 x5 m% U; ~: Z% s+ w, X
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve h1 E% g/ Z/ N9 u+ A
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
4 N5 B# j) s, _4 C2 Atowards the end of 2006. ' p( k5 [0 g0 x5 T3 e/ S
) E8 S! g2 \- r$ t0 p6 xWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of) M! k: q7 N2 q8 S1 o' E
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable2 v; N' G5 V" N9 v$ O, _4 j9 E4 u
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
1 `+ X, X# R$ s3 q1 Q; \) Egroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
1 _9 ~! `* X5 x6 nforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added7 R1 q9 [7 q) V3 `8 D/ m5 }
pressure on tight inventory levels.8 F9 {2 h. n% F8 R$ D) f
7 [8 k5 s; J6 A
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic( C1 c5 f6 m4 ^
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
( G, h* a: p8 X7 Minto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;' _2 [9 M( I- C$ B; K- D
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
. v' d6 T! _. x+ O7 {- I) U* f. Zfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.9 \0 x6 s O2 U5 x6 \; i x9 H
% k- h) h5 z5 b: v- l1 B& E$ ]( f- P
<<
, D: {2 n8 e, u4 } Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------/ }, f p3 q* u/ {+ \
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
( F; V/ R( z. F2 ~- S' O6 G- { -------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ y4 ~0 Q3 K; L1 o K3 e% F' {4 ?7 Y5 ` 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3/ D z. f! j9 z
Market Average Average % Change Average Average+ O" O/ }" g2 G! v# q# f. t5 O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Y* C4 E+ I$ x8 k& X: n# Z Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
Q. F/ w7 H9 g p; h8 m -------------------------------------------------------------------------
( C% G5 y4 V1 }9 q, ^- p! r, x; e, H Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
" e9 [4 C6 B s: Z3 r5 h6 o -------------------------------------------------------------------------
' e8 d7 }1 p$ q Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
% @% Y1 ?' g- @& i: v8 g' | H -------------------------------------------------------------------------4 L4 U. E/ p9 y' M/ b3 r
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
9 ?8 { s$ ^2 q -------------------------------------------------------------------------2 z# p6 O; y( b: a& I
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333 w8 C/ O4 o1 n7 m3 l" D
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 O6 v5 L2 `" T* T3 C& O3 q0 K* X Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
; q. B/ x* J% b -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* }/ L9 F2 h/ d7 H9 k6 U! E9 C$ Z Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185, y+ ^: l" N' i- {& @
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 M2 x4 B, _. H _ Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
& N8 q- u8 P/ Z6 t. f& B+ V -------------------------------------------------------------------------" z5 l; W: Y- O! t6 w i# `% g" p
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766/ Y: G! F( |) M& b4 p6 J% y4 j
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 F2 Y v3 Y" c Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
( z, }- n' `( z3 N9 S -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 e& w# N) t. V7 n
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
/ r) R6 @4 c; M! M -------------------------------------------------------------------------* [* T. {) l: n$ V
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389, ~1 b# ~- W: g0 f0 i7 K! f
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 l8 D$ h* C# ^/ D C# j$ @( X Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,7146 G* x e; a7 {, G1 v0 `) O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------/ S4 t8 `3 b/ J6 |, i1 Q c4 d
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
v1 ]% K0 _& d4 a$ N -------------------------------------------------------------------------6 E; n/ D) W+ e' ~
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000: A# t" q) \* K: P
-------------------------------------------------------------------------: q( ^9 U/ m; G% q3 J6 S6 ^# ^
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860+ h4 s( K2 E8 D3 `5 Z; R
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* A2 o. [) ~4 W8 x
8 X; O2 s7 p# _ U" \0 X+ \ -------------------------------------------------------------
3 q& q2 T' u3 }2 {( q- Q Standard Condominium: A+ W" E1 W$ T+ j- L
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 t& r% _; |' _" z! X 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
$ @, p5 P1 E3 ~) B8 s# ^ Market % Change Average Average % Change
1 c" L Q0 e: k" o6 T% S -------------------------------------------------------------
) X( N* E1 p% R# @ Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
6 v- O+ \ |' F -------------------------------------------------------------# e, g5 Q% B h2 Y6 x
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%; N5 f$ F1 ^0 L1 M
-------------------------------------------------------------
) R5 s7 K" C& I: R0 r3 P- @ Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
3 z) O0 P, b: Y. N" f" C3 m; m -------------------------------------------------------------9 U; J% ]" \8 w7 j- h8 P8 S6 a
Saint John N/A - - N/A/ m& f- o* _# v3 P( B! C
-------------------------------------------------------------" Q# r2 h- J4 I3 U# g9 R
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
' V$ l( m; u2 r% i; u7 f9 R$ V -------------------------------------------------------------+ \$ |( l9 \- J% S$ P
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%2 ~& C$ @7 K" k' i7 ^6 r. s% E& x
-------------------------------------------------------------
9 x4 @3 F7 {4 \8 R% I, D8 s3 A Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%5 U/ ]& ?4 ?# q' u* d9 k: e4 i$ R
-------------------------------------------------------------" i1 p! K, q) S+ z8 |! v
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%- s+ ]$ {4 I E! G+ L5 T$ \- A. w
-------------------------------------------------------------
) i4 n" x9 r% }3 U Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
& `: p, E% ]9 o -------------------------------------------------------------+ y( F; n7 Q4 h ?% v
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
8 @. a0 h$ ^3 t) ~/ Y6 L2 I# i% A7 e, S -------------------------------------------------------------$ n- l" y' s) U! L8 V! q& H
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
7 M1 }$ a7 \% ]% N -------------------------------------------------------------* N' N) \; B1 I4 Q5 |1 g" Y
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
& Y' ^$ K$ F, F -------------------------------------------------------------
6 B6 p8 n/ C: ~/ E/ J Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%2 c M: i; ?0 c5 y8 G+ Q& s" Z6 u
-------------------------------------------------------------
5 ]/ p3 i, U) p, T, I6 m+ G Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%. S0 Z e1 O0 _7 W) H
-------------------------------------------------------------# F' r4 T4 o4 L8 a+ b
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
" x! l' b6 ? s3 Z! e -------------------------------------------------------------
* ?% J$ h% f* [& k National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%) N8 P; B4 L' z M, L2 h
-------------------------------------------------------------
% D: l" a) u$ Y >>
( Y. f0 {! r4 p( V
/ G* y; j! a# L- X4 ` Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined# s8 F' R0 D% O" R0 L
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint$ D$ O( }! G9 e
John and Victoria.
! d# q% _5 C& @" N. ?' y U p! N
, r+ o' w4 E% r* o# a The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most% o" ~$ Q# s3 Q# ?: P7 P
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
# {7 G; q; i m% khousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
. f$ `" m$ ]. r; ]; e# g! }references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price/ u. j3 k6 d8 s8 C- G
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
; l9 l" E& d, p3 P7 G0 g/ `across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is; |3 ^% `- [7 D9 k6 W
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
# G/ {6 R$ L6 R0 M& i& n4 ?figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable! k U" _) b- K
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on' y5 H/ q& p- R
November 15, 2006.2 @' }: |$ a. x) h9 C9 E
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
8 ]7 B y, g$ {' A6 {7 Z( ofair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge4 y# A- z5 b: i; s. c
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is5 W* { x0 H2 H1 ^2 Y- R+ {$ H$ D7 H
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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