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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
% X N5 S" o h* Z4 P7 I
0 F! O4 T m+ z3 ?# |, k) ?- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
) `( m, l+ K% t" s* G0 iexhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
# I* G! B$ c0 ` h9 u* [& O6 S$ mquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic2 I5 o9 P! i& n7 A: w
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit0 V3 s6 t; e7 n/ k8 |: @9 I, P: X. C
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and% M9 C8 ~, D: G" h2 i
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
# N# C1 k0 W' x* s0 i+ QQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal$ H' r! s' O9 y. n7 o! l* F3 a
LePage Real Estate Services.! q% ?, K: |1 ?3 `7 C4 I& p
9 F' D, I/ i6 b. N9 h9 z) V
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters3 \3 s; r x4 A
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic7 j% x9 `& t0 G: Z7 K$ q0 C* k
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and4 y9 i) u* F7 |; C- f- m3 \
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
( i5 |6 @5 `) b6 k2 V2 aresidential real estate sector.
" l0 ?& }2 m8 v
# w- _' A) U4 a* D Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation5 u2 u" X% b- j- S5 T( D
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)+ I( ?6 @& E; g2 U
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562* W; v/ m1 Q5 ~
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
4 r# h+ d" n- J/ _3 u- l1 |0 n! k(+13.2%).2 s- p J, z6 w/ T; ]
5 e+ y- B- z1 F2 N
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth) z/ d* ^8 P( A% U6 v9 R6 L
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the" L4 r' W. Z# r1 t1 \, L+ {/ C
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
9 J, J, m3 Y0 u. b' n2 N. D5 lpoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,. q7 ?; b8 }, o6 O( e6 | q2 }
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
, d( |5 D( q$ o# F"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We1 Y6 W- U) S. A! F9 o
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy' {* n; G: X3 l- p- d* ?# S
balanced market.": p c$ Q, @9 ?" |3 y! a
3 }( ^# p" c: Z! J
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,6 {5 m9 f& V! O" n
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
% }# V0 r' Y6 |* K* A8 w7 X# oto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued; P. }* Z+ U5 h5 J; m; F% U
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core! o2 \ s. d8 U% S5 J @
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,9 u$ o( {7 C. M0 p
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
& t" h5 P8 u7 b1 abreaking price appreciations.
. x+ S1 T7 F9 l2 k+ {. _ Z
3 `: p* s: F2 W! G% t3 @ Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
# d6 L; K1 ^# {# a# J3 M9 qeconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the7 w/ I8 s0 o7 n& [( h1 [
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
: p$ l1 q! P4 e; H( E- l8 ~
8 Q# R. g3 `( `+ B In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid) W) r5 u1 g; A7 v
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer# Z1 \2 I1 p5 i3 g1 t2 o2 w( o
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off3 Y) x9 f- R7 Y, m" Q! {
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.. V' |+ T: [0 T& O, ~
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
% b3 W% r# \* ]& q, f3 @% O/ B1 \1 I+ wgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of' ], p1 W* H2 d* |- J0 a
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
9 j7 y" o3 a* W. f& J/ \! `0 M, @- J/ \2 X5 g
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing; n4 j& E& H2 C( e
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
0 Z( u9 H! y8 r: Y: C* M8 ifinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
& b$ H, Z, L2 k' n1 Nare markedly different than those found in the United States.5 v! [+ T! R. E2 K" h; G
, @7 q/ r. T! X: O% ~: N0 e X Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the* d' G8 h2 a% V0 ^7 G
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's9 C' U5 }$ b- l6 Y( k" d- H. I
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
5 m& f$ ^* c8 m7 Q2 m: j. lrelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
4 _$ Q4 b: v9 h& F: k( ?5 R8 gaffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
+ C$ f/ r e' m/ t6 cdownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and3 a. g! d$ ~7 l+ f! \
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
4 e0 v; ~& i+ H1 |! P5 T3 i2 imortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
# T6 `+ V/ M8 o6 ?& [( {8 M# s6 M0 l' L4 ?& J
<<
$ ~; F( Z8 h! t; |7 ~2 ` REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
* ~2 K. z/ ?! @6 I. K t: R, |Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
) a, ?# x0 {9 ~, ^- ], V- @$ C7 bof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time& y* ]8 I4 m% X' y8 o. g7 @
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of4 `) D- c! Y9 U8 H* m0 s
renovations.
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4 G: `: u& \. t7 O The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
/ C8 v: R: v' {increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
" q* ^4 z: E* W6 Kcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
+ ~5 W$ f8 d, Q) Y. uSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.. L8 O+ I5 W3 D9 ?* D, |" T" z
7 C- m# D. q( M# @( g! O The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer7 }9 U1 L% e2 z0 N- H" \
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
2 S/ @; Q! ?+ S3 Wquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new# w' P4 a' J3 r" {* ^
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores$ e& C( p( z4 } c/ J/ h/ @3 [# ?
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes6 b) I! w8 l4 h" _, B/ s
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
9 l" ]! M, n$ V# N% z2 @; r. A
/ F! a# D& x& T In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced3 ^+ F) Y+ G: {, M
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their+ p( ?" I$ d. A: G4 j; ~
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers1 P/ J* b* U$ t7 o
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
- E) G6 r S& ^2 j1 S rdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
% M0 q0 ~ Z& ~) I- [buyers with more options when looking for a home.
# l& {8 C$ e5 Q# X" ~ p- Z+ x
& o; I, y4 v+ n8 e$ e Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
, I/ {# x; f( n" w- ~5 K7 tamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes) n5 {( \0 y E U( e
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
7 j* W- V' J- I; T( I; g6 e, Q- Tas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
, V$ L+ J. e' J" d0 o2 pfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.* \, P d3 ]) E. @
& z1 b+ X% q5 Y3 `! [ Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house; K: S: {5 E1 [' ]3 h
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory4 d* K% F9 s7 }
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting$ m0 f( @6 H8 g U( L+ @
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
' E2 l2 F% M" swhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
( P1 K& U5 u$ c+ E7 c; p$ }0 npressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
5 ~$ h3 j/ V- W3 n. cmaking a purchase.
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Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
+ F Y6 c0 q% H3 l9 M; E/ cmarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong' w0 n8 Z8 B5 m- a# h% C( D
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
, F5 R$ J* ^4 t) u3 }centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
4 I3 Y7 r/ a6 O( fattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
% q5 Y m" G. iamenities.+ O% `9 D( @: V! w9 T% ~% O* V
& k, g e+ J/ @5 ~) q: x The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels" U. d3 ~. b' Q* P7 Q5 D
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
# _0 C/ i7 [: q" Z# Z2 Aacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
2 j, B1 r& G% ^+ I V+ B4 kcontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
' W+ X" H5 ^+ S) T' L9 Y. xdriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle4 g: c* } Z5 P; @' @% Q) S+ {
residence, rather than for investment.
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: h9 e; Y$ r7 P5 V$ X* q. w, c6 g+ p The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as0 i/ ? t0 T6 ^1 }. Y
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
5 A' |$ N' |% Cin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer% V* ^" a. _5 h4 y
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization+ z5 D8 q$ n2 ]/ U) P: q
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter2 h2 V7 r4 G1 J
the market.. Y# N) s: j' Y* W9 Y
2 K& n8 d) A6 b, O
In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through! ]/ D* {1 n- d7 S; w7 G
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In, T, r7 S2 y. y
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring+ \* J! Z" a1 ?! L `' V% l4 N
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due' e' `0 a; b7 j1 w, D
to the shortage of available inventory.
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2 B0 a% f0 [% W% H6 Y3 l2 s Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its) m2 v& E" T) a P" a
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains* P _ i. k7 C. `+ i
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses. V' ]7 e8 x$ S) |: r$ K$ C2 O, ?1 s
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
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Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
2 c/ ~8 f9 q# `( [+ ~' w5 yin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
7 u! J _* G. |unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that6 O# C: \" [9 A+ S$ }
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
% D m3 x% G( ]3 u9 jprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer: Z( R" q& G m+ v P( M
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as. v3 f8 D0 N& S: ?
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.2 J( y+ F% }! j& ]9 p
& G# w7 }* Y& z' |
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
( G" {/ l7 J. l/ l( P, eas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton5 l" Y$ ]) E6 |- O1 S1 ]5 K w$ l
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
' U7 j5 J# \, B# E/ p) G3 Fmaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices' Y) Z' q3 D7 \4 @- }
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve& _% O" d$ `" @9 T' O( S
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly3 f. u0 L1 I3 t
towards the end of 2006. " Y% c7 |$ X9 P! `
3 P3 d" s% M' y# UWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
8 G0 A9 f% O5 K# o# a9 \: |7 g& g3 rinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable- N$ k3 q& r* ~
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
2 S X0 d0 U* o1 n }group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to* R! Q' k( ~! N; }9 {( H
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added. A3 ~9 e7 A& ]4 `& Q. e
pressure on tight inventory levels.
+ v9 M3 h. M1 o2 Z! @7 Y: Y: y, R& U1 o/ b! g) s; ^, _" ^. u, w
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
; ]$ H# V( N1 {7 D1 B/ Xfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
2 K: F" K% ?. D; C& Dinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
$ X2 f0 n/ Z4 ]% g O# r+ Rwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching3 t4 G( }$ S: P! `* s& c
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
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<<
: F4 H" H* v$ q6 r. q Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
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/ e% \) x0 C/ X5 }& P! i0 z -------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ B" k3 z5 n+ U" k7 F i Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
) L7 f0 L; G) r `( ^. x -------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 }% w! Z& Q5 {1 k6 P7 z/ n% Q. G. e 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3% @; Y" B& O+ w7 H0 p3 K& S: M, {
Market Average Average % Change Average Average2 x- b0 B7 S* k8 V) _6 E
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
: l' }0 |! _! E7 m4 u Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,0004 L/ O, s* x: \- }6 k0 c
------------------------------------------------------------------------- u: o6 N9 p' R: e
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,0009 m; H1 k7 ]9 P& i7 I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
) O. Q: e+ v- r5 H Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
& n1 V- {, y. F, H& x -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 A% d/ |. C; o+ {" S
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
# c3 ~& ~4 U( G! Z, `2 V -------------------------------------------------------------------------
: y3 h7 T) s. P0 o* ~ St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
: g' H a7 l1 f f, r- q5 l4 g9 [ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 J7 z4 l9 H" n# d2 U/ A! V Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583% {- U4 ~0 y6 F3 \+ U: n; }" ]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 |1 C7 f2 U( S Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,1850 t$ P( R D4 ?( ?2 @6 F. z! R
-------------------------------------------------------------------------' b% k& ?4 F4 q% ]2 G3 o
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
: C ^ Z$ r' K' H2 m -------------------------------------------------------------------------6 \8 J, X& Q$ g" G! T! T; X" ^
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
: a- o$ r/ I2 m+ x; N$ X" M7 q -------------------------------------------------------------------------& Q% x" r) ?: Y
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
& \" y% X; Y; o! b/ _, \/ |- n -------------------------------------------------------------------------6 q) u( e1 U4 @! x
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500$ ^" g$ t" s {9 F/ m/ Z) E
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
, K; S X1 u) @6 d! E: B Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,3893 u2 P; W) x( T! V" G
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 l$ b3 h2 l0 `9 y6 m Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
8 R9 n! a8 h( T. w -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* L* J3 e, R1 l) h' N Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
; g. f8 e3 C+ d1 w; s -------------------------------------------------------------------------
- [. W: }2 M) ]/ @3 N% ` Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
# g! m2 h: c7 @ -------------------------------------------------------------------------4 ^. ], t3 Y+ j) B2 Y- R& o7 x
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860, Z0 t/ u% I- _+ a4 R# e& n
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 I4 R# {# j: U# k" b* d I9 Z6 l2 e
* ] Z" @6 V/ T( g -------------------------------------------------------------; e) S$ v" `, I1 ]& J/ X
Standard Condominium) w8 p: t7 B2 y
-------------------------------------------------------------/ d/ f! i3 c% c) m; s8 d& O
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo4 e" K' e- h" J9 ?5 w6 U
Market % Change Average Average % Change/ M- R" T' P5 _; {# E% c6 C
-------------------------------------------------------------
& c$ _, u5 u1 e, M# Q Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%% k- `$ U5 B2 T4 J0 R, f0 r1 ^3 J
-------------------------------------------------------------
; u; Z0 s. O2 P Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%: C/ M! I) @7 y) H
-------------------------------------------------------------4 b1 e: ^1 Z4 c& h' G% @) s" v5 t1 H
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A6 C) ^# y7 r7 v. F3 a
-------------------------------------------------------------" a9 V/ T5 S0 p
Saint John N/A - - N/A
* a& X5 M; A& P -------------------------------------------------------------
3 C7 H4 _: a* m4 H$ o% k St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%4 B# S* o1 f4 K2 u
-------------------------------------------------------------. L6 {! B+ A, r6 T2 i
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%. w- i U5 B9 g' M+ I3 x. X; X( v
-------------------------------------------------------------
3 z p: V$ c2 U9 F1 G* Y Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%. j: G: M3 f! h. W# R
-------------------------------------------------------------0 W; g4 ] F* ^& b( W4 a4 T7 |
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%& W5 i. ~: [( N( k; u& `1 t6 K
-------------------------------------------------------------
, U+ o d- x$ l7 C9 @ Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
8 d5 f X! ?2 j3 L" I o @2 N, D -------------------------------------------------------------2 \5 q s) N; T/ H- b9 x
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%6 W8 u. h1 e8 c/ h6 }* z3 C
-------------------------------------------------------------' }$ f+ d) n# N" |& C# o& N: M
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%. {. @7 [9 G+ I2 `3 o- i
-------------------------------------------------------------# b+ w6 `9 P. m5 B
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%- o! K+ p& M$ E0 ]" f
-------------------------------------------------------------
" q o4 _9 B* B+ ?- U) g Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
1 ~: l) T! R* p -------------------------------------------------------------
% b- G G# T, ~7 Z) P9 A Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%9 M7 Y& T; s8 R7 ?2 D& r- R" ]
-------------------------------------------------------------
" B) S9 l ?1 e* V0 q Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%+ Z b/ Q% C+ S9 ^& G+ _8 E; Y
-------------------------------------------------------------# o2 _2 A) ?( L. G3 T/ n8 T$ I
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%; `- y& g0 l; f1 x0 F/ Z( e. X- N
-------------------------------------------------------------" p1 N* N# T% h9 w' G- U! [' b+ ?
>>5 B( v3 n1 ]$ p- d( j& f3 I& g( u
q0 o( V2 K; }6 ?4 T3 @+ f Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
+ s' C+ I u# g1 pin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint. G5 f) {3 _1 w9 v; N" B9 Q
John and Victoria.: m9 T# y' G) P3 W* R9 l( L" ?0 X! a
1 a3 o1 Q: t8 a. L: J8 s' W
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
( a& ^* y- m4 c u8 I* kcomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of- N4 c2 j; Q) P3 C5 Z7 ~
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
: t7 v% x; C" y* {7 d' oreferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price0 R0 B" r4 R+ S$ Z9 o
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities6 ~7 y- [/ ]$ ?$ j; F
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
9 ^' ~. v$ u6 L3 ^available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current9 Q' M& @2 b: L' U5 V- N
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
& q9 o: z- G% N4 C$ J6 M! v- Q- j9 lversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
! v+ I9 s' B0 p9 `4 S" aNovember 15, 2006.
$ l! e) V& I/ j. Q8 y4 x Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
5 e- W2 r3 L. Pfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge" ~0 H( p6 G( @2 N
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
3 S2 E/ z! K/ O! C' Z, bavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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