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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable * b& v0 P3 B: `
) l4 n4 n# I. L- e; j/ `
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
2 W' b! J" C z D7 L9 R8 v1 |( X' z3 ~5 h4 @: u" F
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market9 ~! q+ w& C$ N* I$ S8 {
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
% i' |, V2 b6 |$ a$ K" ~" T8 Rquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
$ L5 _ F; q" n6 m- K, _$ Cin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit5 R6 ]/ W7 r- {
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
8 v2 }2 @1 F4 b7 n# Y& w+ Xmore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
. @! c: B4 J* c" Q) fQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal; b2 L+ r3 I: h. i
LePage Real Estate Services.+ G) J9 Y7 u. {
' W+ r/ g7 W9 s; q4 c6 s) Q a Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters9 Y8 D/ m& a( U
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
" o: ~( j8 }! a, M+ |conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and% a1 T+ u$ T( m' I! L
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
% N, h# u4 ?& r; \; n! Bresidential real estate sector.
* h* q, c, z: H& I. X* I* [* C( \$ d# t! P# \
Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation, }& S" J3 t S! y; b& f8 k
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)" `4 C1 _/ \. O
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,5627 s( n7 r; U4 ]/ V( n+ c) V/ l
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380% |, F8 r! i, n4 }. D- W! R/ f
(+13.2%).- S" o# D4 s& C# ?) K
5 a' Y( l u3 {- o8 R/ S, p) `
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
* e, o; M: t9 sduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
4 _) v# l, Q9 [# j# @; t% E) vfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
# O2 h/ l$ }# a$ B4 d7 d& [/ Vpoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,, V, Z$ S& F7 V& |3 {' H0 y
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.5 B" {6 b0 L" Q$ f8 O
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
2 m- @) Q' K& Q& X! h5 Iwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
' n2 K4 j! ?* w5 Q' q- i! `balanced market.", [3 ]7 R5 W. X% }: W3 }$ G* }- `
% F' L) n7 N. U/ @% o
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
4 G+ q* k! O/ B0 F6 w% tconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
- c$ E1 X: d5 r9 Kto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
/ F! Y2 [* Q$ u" a' b% L$ ~throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
) j/ ?/ R; H$ O% E% |energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,4 G0 f: l4 Y- F) {6 q
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
R$ F/ Q$ y: w. V! h. P; _breaking price appreciations.
* C+ S- l+ E, T6 [3 U# _$ k. Z2 Z
# U2 W! D. B' Y. P; ]6 @4 E# k Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
; p; v- D; {; ]- heconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the! X; T- j' v; b: k
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.5 H" Z) w5 z& r! w
k2 G- W3 v' B. @0 A In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
* L( @# @. X6 j, U' \' Oeconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer4 j T/ Y+ D) ^
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off u Q# a# Q4 J8 N% r+ O- e. R
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.7 ?6 T @, F4 N$ c
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
! d- d$ g& } H$ b# C! \greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of( { Y- W/ [2 u+ `' v
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
- Q- ^ C2 G ?/ U& Y i5 `5 L4 q( i1 T; @7 X, |2 E
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing2 z: x4 k$ [- p2 r- S( B
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and0 X8 V9 W1 X, a! I
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
. G' q5 O5 O" \/ {9 N; {" x! _# J& K, aare markedly different than those found in the United States.2 _. m2 I) {8 c, D$ a- Q
1 t. a; k6 i" B: C Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the$ r/ U8 {. @" T
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
& a* `' j2 O7 T6 N5 Sfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the' F9 K" w6 f/ `' ~
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
0 [) r, ^4 m; Qaffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the+ o1 S: t& g+ n& u1 K; E' V% ~
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and+ w: F z' v9 U' m4 O
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization) m2 H& I! \4 _$ U6 i
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
6 D4 y( @4 ]; H& V- ]
9 W) K3 Q- C& {' R# S% ^ <<$ D* J% w2 F& Q8 P" S7 a
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
( J6 H# `5 `2 Y) Y9 [! U >>7 [6 I! g7 B0 G _& w# d+ m
0 g: g. w1 o( D9 A# Y Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in- D' V8 E4 H, Q7 V D* l" g0 c1 v
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
( M1 }9 x+ r- B2 ~% `4 b; M( oof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
+ n/ T# I2 [) Z4 R- U( N$ A0 Flooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
0 S! n0 [+ {7 s. Y, y( v7 ]1 hrenovations.: `& _# ^9 U6 ^3 o B
3 o+ u5 v- g5 B7 J6 b: h' \+ v The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
v) A# w! {- C% Pincrease in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation, U! S$ @) s( p( P; @, ~0 O' Q
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and: f" X- c. c W, O, {
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.& N* R5 q, q* \4 h2 }. D' ?+ F
. u9 F' o5 b; Z3 r% ~
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
# |5 {+ M6 F# V9 Y& O* f9 Jslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the+ d; Q, {3 {% E+ V/ H
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new7 p7 v) u& q5 h5 k4 g
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores f* C+ C, i" U1 q% r5 I- e9 `9 N
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes8 }$ Q7 G% h: @$ f, g( m
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
# X, y$ y$ ~: p0 X4 P6 Z4 P/ a: W/ y1 A. v+ _
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced3 f$ e) ~0 `2 k0 j2 [+ g
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
/ p+ b/ K) i' v: D$ a! i$ Z7 \homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
: {6 s' a) R( |$ s+ lwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
( _9 b9 T2 s/ Z- a2 h$ i' xdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing, X, k( C# r/ x
buyers with more options when looking for a home.- `' B" Y {, J1 G
; C7 H$ D. w$ n& n8 A Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly# r G/ E9 s; Y. C) F$ W
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
) y) A7 B) l- l2 W' w" ]5 ]) ~priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
# ~. Q& _( o% ^as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last1 A6 ^/ ~. c2 s* A8 o. B" u! e
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.' ^9 B( A' t; R( ~
6 j4 M3 D/ O- e$ a9 l# W K: y Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
( B7 c# ]: G7 r+ D. m+ E8 ~* {prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
0 O9 h* i C) v' L2 ~levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting p$ F" h/ r o9 g* G! ]6 m+ \
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,; L# R+ H' x Q- E
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
/ ^$ F0 S9 r" |% e# Z# Zpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before% Z7 d1 C4 }8 z& V" P
making a purchase.
$ R1 G2 T+ i! V+ V! v" W9 q3 \# [' `& W7 Z/ p! k
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
- S7 {: z0 n# U; {markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong6 N8 _2 K/ L' L/ E* V
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city, o" O# Y- @( }5 ^
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting8 R/ r- b" l' s E9 _) K; i% G
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown. d' `: F% E# u& T- _* g
amenities.
6 r, t* j+ }1 Y- L
% s- i; n4 i" D. K The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels$ i" m C' e1 R
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
1 w8 g( Y# N7 P' [: Vacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has6 }( D+ ?- o3 G r, V$ i
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been$ A3 ^7 h6 x$ U0 u- p
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
7 N) Q! \" l8 d' hresidence, rather than for investment.
' P; z. T/ k% L/ W# Q' {; T3 z+ l; X6 ^4 u
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as5 ]" V$ l! e& i, Z5 V+ `. M
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
7 m$ n' e. `- D: a, J u' iin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
* t* }' S& ]7 ?! [$ k) Z( v- sconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization4 H$ X1 K! d6 }+ ^% ]
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter" ~' V" [6 o- }" n& u
the market.1 O9 \2 A& |# N, t7 w
/ q& _( I7 C* B# W( Z9 D9 G In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through" j; W' w6 w4 e9 u* o0 W
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
& N- K3 }- L/ `9 v/ M! g4 S4 T% GAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring4 R; Q: Z9 D0 g+ r/ }8 x }
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
0 m' q7 O: C. ]. ?6 sto the shortage of available inventory.
* p! K' I8 A5 P, D4 G# H7 Q% @" R5 {! X: w% b) U8 x' J: E* e
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
& H& X% t$ D" u3 o( V3 _momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains r* Z1 j; d! Z/ ]) f4 o# X
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses; a# z( O9 C" M( h1 z% P5 N
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province. a: [0 M: I3 H" j' m0 p1 ~
4 q6 ~2 K( T S: r Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases: K0 ?$ ?- p% f5 I, J B/ S( x
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
& y% {. @3 e, ]unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
2 _; a& t- W7 d3 X( a5 spressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
2 t$ i. I- X' [- R& hprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
' a' q5 o) Y+ t* v* Dseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
, k, }$ g/ _' {' Ubuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.& t' q/ U$ ^! V* {9 u: @+ E4 p
* a/ Z) ?. V: Q/ N. ~) p- k- Y Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter( q+ k& l, n- @
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
; E; D o! ] r8 kremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,9 `7 E- y) ?7 H1 P+ n' H6 \2 d
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
( ^, U: z5 ?' ]- t. ^increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
, v: h+ ]+ g0 m6 X. X( N$ }in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly9 @: N7 Y( V; F1 z
towards the end of 2006. ' m4 j, b& N. A% A
" Z4 t( j$ v, r; E
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of7 A( r! E1 T! W. V# i9 j
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable) l# B. v- Y! Q7 W Q0 T1 a. G; h
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
3 \$ B9 V$ ]: V( s6 S7 ?group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to, j- q d, p1 C @6 g
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added" D' Z H, `, D
pressure on tight inventory levels.
) Y2 g( j" K/ u/ q; Q2 n6 ^! ?: a$ e4 p% l5 V Z3 T
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
9 d* h* r' S# i# cfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
" q% z; s( \/ ^! `+ H5 K ?# d5 Xinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;5 w3 A5 O) q2 q: `3 V6 b6 L
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
h7 r q6 [' g9 z7 Wfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
( \. H' l0 P+ M6 D2 [+ b+ F, ?
& }* P+ w$ o7 A5 l. I, n. }0 f, s <<
- R. b9 v8 S9 B1 _; e Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006; E) {* M. W) P2 i
, V, f+ u. D8 c% b5 V3 j( h
-------------------------------------------------------------------------6 S! r9 Q* y9 V5 ?8 B7 e/ w
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey$ z! a/ E: y2 M$ B. w
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ D, X4 Q& Q$ V* o4 o: v! C5 m) ` 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
2 e( C. y( I5 _# C5 h% T Market Average Average % Change Average Average2 ~1 ~" j) C9 r1 T) @! q
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* i' V, z& b9 B7 u4 e4 V8 c Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
! I5 z) a( P5 |9 @& Y -------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 T r; A d% a. Y1 u% @( s Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
/ {" d4 `: x9 g. _- u$ s/ r -------------------------------------------------------------------------
; W5 ~3 Z. E& X2 v7 u Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
4 S! c3 @0 S7 ~0 `$ V3 ~ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ I5 u: e g5 Z+ x) n3 ~1 u Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
: f8 E2 O6 _5 ^5 l -------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 N, H, F9 y+ T. d St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
$ ?/ ^6 I- ^ R- D9 S8 {0 N -------------------------------------------------------------------------
d0 @1 |, p! `. X; V1 v Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
/ |; H, Z$ u+ J4 M- p( c L -------------------------------------------------------------------------! |( W1 \( i4 V% P9 d. K' ?, K$ H
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
9 \, v) i" @/ ^: ~( v0 ]1 z I" j% N8 P# ^ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# E j5 e. c: R$ S Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250( B" U/ p1 J- \9 I, {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ q7 X V/ o! ^6 I$ D Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766- T( Y, ]% T$ m3 m5 g: [
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 ]! ]5 y* e6 K6 b3 x# d; c" a Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
! c8 a; i z" n1 { -------------------------------------------------------------------------
- N0 k) i& g9 O. J& X Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
" l8 i0 b$ p2 C2 P -------------------------------------------------------------------------
s* J1 a% ?9 N# ? Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
# [2 p- c2 H/ a$ D5 i7 ?* Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 _: j& G0 h) z& H# ]7 G Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714) ?; }4 M8 Q+ E2 N* g
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 n0 {$ f, y* U3 v Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,5008 f5 F& ?& ~4 }' m5 e0 A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------) o8 O( k9 d& |" l
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000) j @9 l8 i) \( }/ Y6 _1 S4 i2 q
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
W6 V7 p4 h: t National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
1 ^" s0 i& T, j& { -------------------------------------------------------------------------6 h' R% @- o9 p4 r/ y6 i
1 q+ [- H" w- ]: X3 y7 h -------------------------------------------------------------6 h; Q7 {, x1 T( P/ H
Standard Condominium
6 h& K2 g) I& @2 ~& ^ -------------------------------------------------------------
8 `0 T! [7 h$ |$ B2 c/ V 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
^$ k3 O9 ?) s- B/ l+ @ Market % Change Average Average % Change& a! y1 k8 X% p1 v: _. N: T
------------------------------------------------------------- |8 y; G* X" `
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
) T: P% A% P( J9 Z/ x' ~ -------------------------------------------------------------
. w) c7 j2 h) f) A q( q0 K# b9 j8 S Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%% e5 F% g4 |/ u {' p6 K
-------------------------------------------------------------8 V' Q- u# f( P* |$ W
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A5 e$ ~, B; w* m& _ W
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 Q6 p6 i- `1 ~0 n% j0 |8 ~ Saint John N/A - - N/A! s. S; ?( h; \
-------------------------------------------------------------
3 i% O% k8 a3 z0 f+ K' A) u* w St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
- d% g: c9 g4 T9 O' ~- w+ u, m0 }9 M -------------------------------------------------------------& s4 J8 j0 Q2 t1 u
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4% J! Z( c: S; L9 Q0 `. U
-------------------------------------------------------------& e8 M& d6 o K* `$ f6 ~8 x
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%0 ~! J' e9 j7 v2 ?
-------------------------------------------------------------$ n" r6 B' K/ F, D0 Z
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
2 k9 ?' l% f* ~8 C+ w -------------------------------------------------------------
& Z, R6 m( A3 m, w+ P Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
K8 m: W8 s$ ^ -------------------------------------------------------------- c6 c9 [4 {; J; B/ j4 `) L
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
$ M% M( g/ N* l -------------------------------------------------------------- W: T a' k2 A4 q5 m3 x. h. C
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
' ^4 V; C* E' ^9 a -------------------------------------------------------------. ^( n# P" \0 K$ c
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
4 Y3 a, i3 \8 G -------------------------------------------------------------
9 I, t: R) }) E: k$ E6 N Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
. }# \( x1 s$ A& R -------------------------------------------------------------
, \6 q3 Q! q2 t9 _0 ] Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
6 Y, l& Y9 }$ r, v9 c -------------------------------------------------------------: S6 U6 [. O- p2 n+ Y" E% j1 i3 X
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%8 S1 Q6 }. L1 ~, l6 i
-------------------------------------------------------------- w* u, i; ^) T1 X
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
$ _; l+ f! g+ S -------------------------------------------------------------
; h Q. `. i2 O' l6 _ >>+ a& ]* ]) \% _
; _- `1 C. m5 y8 {9 P# g! h" ` Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
* r. }. c9 q/ Ein the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint% t6 O- a# f' o( r
John and Victoria.
0 P9 b& p0 w$ v6 ?6 d V9 z8 H7 s3 I
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most9 J3 `8 f( m% h- z6 i3 s6 J' Q! U
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
1 G N r" s9 F4 Yhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
# d4 ^$ a0 u- q3 k8 u; Areferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
$ j: x9 j6 W# e0 U3 jtrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
* |+ c: D7 U) @across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
$ Z! b9 J4 [& o9 Y$ \7 r3 C+ Cavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current: U) b) v! [0 t# B
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
u% s9 Q a, f2 Z$ n# Rversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
. Y2 q0 p4 y. J' x( i& t3 WNovember 15, 2006.
- [- _0 Q' z. L9 B& q9 m c- U Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of7 ]& F+ g( @1 X4 @ G$ W+ z2 R
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge4 t/ h0 Z/ `* _. _/ u( F
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
6 U9 a; v7 v+ cavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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