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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
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" d7 [& J+ T- D) |) L- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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! m, _. }0 ?/ Z+ _ TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market* o7 T$ ?. I* ~* j/ k. d) }- A' w
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
/ B, a4 \( f& _2 o3 Aquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic' V: O2 t* M' V& w3 S. a
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
3 s" t# t5 K( e8 K9 d# [5 qprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and/ Q( p; V: W# I9 i: ~, ~
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
- H" ?% w L( S% L$ ]/ w! qQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal* c. }7 r. f" j4 O) q8 _5 D8 V
LePage Real Estate Services.
+ p: G; z2 W8 X* M5 |7 p
5 ~# Q$ d. O8 V2 H" m Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
5 p" m; Z" {1 e1 Lare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
9 O3 u8 z% E$ A+ |. tconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and5 k+ r9 D8 Q4 ~# C0 w1 `2 p
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
4 Q! ?; N9 Q1 f1 Bresidential real estate sector.3 ]% X) v) ~; i
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Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation1 M( F2 r! A1 y! c
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)2 U. Z6 k: ?" W0 \+ e
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
) u* I" W: r+ B& v/ ^' q+ _(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
t( K2 J1 C; g7 o0 G4 e9 e- ~' g(+13.2%).0 U& a9 E& Z2 }6 T7 Z' U
8 ?# G7 a- i5 P "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth% l% ~, l+ n0 v* O! y
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
: k. u) P4 V( L" g2 j2 h( ~frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are2 x5 A( S$ H/ X4 U0 M! Y
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
2 M/ K/ n! D2 ^- N8 b$ H4 ipresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.# N' O8 m( o, o8 K* y
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We. U; B5 z7 H0 L! l$ S
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy6 Y# O" J! l/ N/ E" j8 T! L
balanced market."4 }. Z* p2 H* j
$ z3 S# s [& d/ f$ }; b8 ]$ R
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
0 E1 n& w k' _& x6 V5 j. p2 Zconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
- y' m8 X) I s* u+ `0 ?. Bto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
+ C: r) e, f- Othroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core5 c: `1 s) F* F2 b
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,) U1 C5 o6 Y. O: Q& _
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record3 L8 l! A$ _, F5 z* b2 N3 \% t: w
breaking price appreciations.' l1 ]* W' {9 U
- h- O. h6 P, ` Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
$ D0 X3 T( I/ C3 D) Aeconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the' {0 Z t2 u; p: h( _
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.( I. k$ J' n$ g4 K6 V
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In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid3 y1 Z5 z; V3 g! v* W
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer5 e6 }( i' P9 t: q# ^8 Z; R
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
# f% U. p1 _! |slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.4 R8 F6 z9 d" s. \( |' n2 @
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers! ^& L7 A" }* T- ]# F) S
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
9 I3 t Y8 L4 C, |; [6 ~price appreciation when compared with 2005.2 r* {$ N3 P) z1 \! s% j B
/ ^6 L% Y, V) D2 M
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing4 [5 D5 U1 C; c+ F. X- x g( |
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and" \/ x4 `3 v5 F q. a! \1 {
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
" [/ b- s' H7 B* P& vare markedly different than those found in the United States.2 ]+ ]% H$ C3 }1 l5 }
$ w1 B7 u0 F1 ^* J1 o7 p( {
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
: l4 O6 ?6 m$ h6 L+ \) Q5 A* @American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
9 }: k7 S4 E+ B2 B& Tfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the4 h5 u# f3 K& U6 s1 \
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general5 G7 b8 f/ E. ]5 c" {0 V1 O5 Y
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the) @6 }* X8 \2 O" U) u- E# A
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and1 T: r: Q6 x; O/ w) W* f1 f
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
3 R4 o3 M# A. T6 y4 f) C1 A: } Tmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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<<: H+ ^% t% a/ K; Q- d% i
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in! v2 x3 Q4 {# U3 }0 r( a
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
) C( j3 R! [$ C" jof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time6 \2 w- u; t2 C! I; \
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
5 i3 v, y. C% r4 V2 Erenovations.
?+ D7 Q( J/ r9 {% A4 [5 n8 L
" [* y& D: W. F, F0 ^7 | The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
2 t8 Y" M, D' U. X9 h. `increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
( J* l) ?$ V5 ^0 ~# f" I- {compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
3 }& N5 i& _* L3 `( _* B: F3 HSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
A4 \' J" ~* A$ a* I- B
; p2 `- C4 t1 L* [ The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
+ m, O* x7 o2 bslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the+ |) C5 G+ ?5 D% z3 F
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new j1 }3 ~: }7 b8 F9 v+ e ~
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores/ P% d. d1 c8 U+ f# O" l
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
# f) o# Q5 @% o B! V" q, A8 b' oand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.' u) H2 @* Q) O4 c$ L) i9 ?
' v# o+ Q3 G. ]0 R# ?6 C5 T
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
; c; |( C9 E" Kconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
1 m, c/ u; J- B; V4 D/ `2 g! Khomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
- ~( m. K5 k* d% Y4 j; bwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
- M2 ]$ p/ X2 v3 S3 _dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
+ }, q4 L' ^. p# `buyers with more options when looking for a home.
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Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
. I) r2 a+ V( i/ j) g) x% hamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
1 Q5 L# w. D% T% x+ W1 G9 [, G9 Lpriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,# X! k" J/ O! Y5 ]
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
. P2 M0 j" b" |* dfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.0 Y- }$ M" A; M/ p* z
' { b) |0 S1 t" } Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
+ h- o6 d( k, \7 Nprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
+ P8 T+ G7 G# ~3 E/ A! Blevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
1 i% _; ?: |0 i, B* F5 g+ xfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
. R5 G$ O: t# Q9 }when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the' u3 |* o( @& ]) D* A( C( d o
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before; c/ d( n: ]: k' d0 l9 l
making a purchase.$ I8 _$ o: I- b* z# F- z J
. Y1 b6 q2 Q. ^7 S7 i, n
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
) P2 H( Y) q6 Z& }% f; xmarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong+ ~; A7 F$ t. e) Z! m
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city/ ?5 o+ F1 t* n3 c9 S
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting. o9 b# G) Y! s" I
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown) V1 L+ P# X4 ^* j
amenities.
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* t! m; a* @) C. z9 V/ V The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels: l6 y4 ]& ~" z7 l2 Q
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand/ N3 S4 }% m9 _+ C7 B
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has: b, u* i: w6 K. n3 Q9 t1 E9 D
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
4 `2 \: b2 h0 C6 q. x' {driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
, B2 ]7 G* j* l; e _# B# uresidence, rather than for investment./ r/ b8 d' z6 A" v( @
9 w0 v7 h" y8 K: I# U S+ R; p
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
! d* \. i( r C7 }5 x; c) O: ~house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted# Q' L; F' v) _; a, M4 `# P& }1 ]0 T4 M
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer4 @% N% { N5 k' ?' T0 R
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
. f5 A4 B+ \6 u. K$ d( w& A' q; crate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter. z8 j1 H6 k( \; U4 S! P0 c1 f
the market.
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; Q* k; z7 g( F% }& b) b In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through4 z' ^/ T: g8 R7 T8 Z' X
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
9 U7 C7 X9 { g2 x" iAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring4 [( K$ y' `" L" h; X4 k7 a- ^' t
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due" v( _* g8 w/ y3 c
to the shortage of available inventory.
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Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its% S5 U( p# p. S; g' T" y+ z- a
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
6 G ?+ k3 j2 a8 Kvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses: ]1 v% R9 Y1 n8 U8 n& V; V) k
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
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6 L: U5 h k, D a3 y Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
4 B+ e6 E8 \( m- H' u1 W0 I/ ~in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
0 c3 N7 |; ?: e) Y; [/ p/ |. ^unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
1 m0 j- n9 |2 C0 n! \. xpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
, u4 ]3 l9 d* H! o7 sprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
0 M# Y5 t: E% z W+ Eseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
" V2 {) Q8 l1 O. Ybuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
3 [( R; E8 r1 \8 U9 F
9 V; b; ]( M* l, y- C Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter; a% x1 a) o Q5 Q: r5 I5 u7 N
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
0 v2 c7 C# k& ~. Dremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
4 y" j* M9 r0 ~0 k5 y" ymaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices" \3 G, i9 }! ?! G g9 \. m
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
- h9 j% X) n/ E$ _1 k$ @in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
4 i" v* v0 B) B( [" Y7 ~4 ~towards the end of 2006.
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. C7 g& J1 S/ Y5 G/ {& u$ L$ S5 I3 tWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
: z# I& y! q9 Q5 finventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
0 g! O( l* Z/ H& x; ` T% oto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
0 q6 @3 H( M- o. P% x7 T0 Rgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to: D1 w, L( r" W. H
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added' P0 J' t! }) ?7 G* s+ m* V
pressure on tight inventory levels.
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$ `" V, K# q" a% b" A Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic; o, A) W0 v$ |3 j
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people$ P9 T) b# g" Y% B5 T/ s& A9 q$ ]
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
8 T% u+ R% m: i3 Nwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching' T5 p/ z6 \! `, C7 p$ p
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
9 {1 ~9 G, `0 s1 b+ Y. x$ {$ i. `" v8 ?% y, q+ u8 @5 m
<<
e8 X8 z; J! D$ }5 a; d& J5 g3 M, r Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
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( e( M: w& l- z% M) H -------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 ?, w Z. a- J+ d' y) a6 X! ` Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey0 {8 r9 ^& T- x, ?* y6 L5 h
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 N2 U! Z, B4 l* U$ T 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q38 R" `2 R5 }$ c" t) t6 n6 M( J
Market Average Average % Change Average Average' k0 y% ^, \: y# C
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ a [7 z! @% l! r Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
1 c" N: x& B3 y" P8 T7 Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 H8 C# D/ c8 s5 [' [! i
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000* }, G+ a, N9 O. k$ H
-------------------------------------------------------------------------. r8 ]' o/ P# H- g) |$ U3 h% [
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000- e/ w: C6 f4 N) L- |4 X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 H8 x! I% u% s( H Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -% Y, s3 j& j: ?2 \9 t M: s7 }! _
-------------------------------------------------------------------------# Z% I A+ P8 I7 M$ A
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
) V0 T) _) N+ y* v -------------------------------------------------------------------------0 k: l+ X* Y6 C1 A5 A9 J
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
1 D k* V" t/ P, ]* o, h" K -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# q2 C7 F( s+ ?' Y6 f/ i5 o, r Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
5 V$ I3 X% ]6 G: h -------------------------------------------------------------------------; w1 I5 H0 [2 c+ D Z
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250* K1 B! j, @& F8 ~! f! P$ f+ ^' a
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 @. U+ e3 l) f0 l* s3 v, Q Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
0 w; |5 r$ x# N" H -------------------------------------------------------------------------8 x) B. F( k$ Z$ r2 Z8 h9 G
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
) h; T) D% p* E" } ^( G& C -------------------------------------------------------------------------
( k* b- l; s' B6 c, \2 b$ w" e' @4 l Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
2 L7 ~$ n6 d& P& f+ f0 l, {1 d -------------------------------------------------------------------------. D) X$ B8 U& g, c
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,3897 ~/ l6 v/ C4 d( a4 h. c& I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------. c" n- h' B g+ z, {% \9 O
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,7146 A2 Y' O& S) i* ~0 V9 J
-------------------------------------------------------------------------( z* A. V* J5 V7 h
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
, ]6 r9 B; _8 O q# g3 z -------------------------------------------------------------------------
" G+ ~% c, M8 d; s9 Z Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,0002 j3 X/ A6 y- M i
-------------------------------------------------------------------------9 r& x8 @$ f" L6 _ F5 ~: f
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,8608 J8 G& ? e7 c% Z( `) g
-------------------------------------------------------------------------# @! J( u! r1 z O5 L0 m
, L4 B/ `9 V% L9 M
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. c, i/ L5 n2 E& h Standard Condominium K( o& f! P& v" V, a* T6 n" S9 x
-------------------------------------------------------------6 y) w* \/ o4 v5 W& K! K
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo2 T8 M7 p6 t: I0 r ~- w2 p' O
Market % Change Average Average % Change& |- e+ l( G/ k# Q, a2 M
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 P& K* R+ R9 A) I Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%& H3 Y, _7 u2 B! z [2 T( [/ S
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 {/ X; k4 D( x1 A Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
! j7 l" X, u- w& }( D" n -------------------------------------------------------------
0 o8 q$ J" A6 D+ [- R: v7 ~' L Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
5 N) R' O5 k& v -------------------------------------------------------------6 l0 g6 a$ }6 x! t! s
Saint John N/A - - N/A
b8 V2 Y/ j4 Z+ q9 N/ j" n, U -------------------------------------------------------------
# J4 e. z, U F; T! f* N2 l: z St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%( N* ~; P7 ?( H. i5 q
-------------------------------------------------------------7 ]8 c! q$ F3 ^4 s: a) A
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
5 @: e9 w) \: A, d- m -------------------------------------------------------------( V# Z3 I0 L0 O8 i
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%6 H& L M& B( E" z: T2 M. Z
-------------------------------------------------------------
8 d* Z0 \1 B& j; ~' `$ G Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%9 L. [, h: h0 G" M# E6 p
-------------------------------------------------------------$ S) @1 P2 X) F' B ^$ b" n* G
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%( t! O( }: _0 N/ a( f" X& B
-------------------------------------------------------------
/ `3 s2 U, t( j8 j Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
) {* P) h' b; z; I' s: W -------------------------------------------------------------
6 g* {% q0 i2 H) i S Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%3 d0 e9 `' j; R5 x: U* z# q
-------------------------------------------------------------1 }- f) \# F+ P+ h- r- D4 k1 ?
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%7 W4 M0 C& ]; i8 R
-------------------------------------------------------------
! T9 u' Q* k" e! F' V- V Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%# \0 h6 n* n8 {" v
-------------------------------------------------------------; R& S1 l- Y U) u F
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%2 A W" i: ~4 w" `
-------------------------------------------------------------
/ e( a. n$ i" r0 x9 F& i Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%7 I; }6 l4 O) G- v
-------------------------------------------------------------
. p4 I6 S$ {: M National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
9 A1 l3 ]/ ^) A: I -------------------------------------------------------------
8 A+ A9 {- m) Q >>
, E: Z9 [5 P+ H( h5 d1 y7 K, h3 ^/ \! o/ O. Z$ D, ?
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined' e+ v a9 ?; H* |
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
5 V5 U' t* y: u# ]8 ?' sJohn and Victoria.: e( o2 v% w- D6 R& R$ B6 m
( e- u7 @/ _, i% Q/ s The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most# i x$ y0 W2 I K* ~# g/ }8 e- C
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of6 j$ g6 Z0 Q. e2 ~' B, o. ~$ g
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release; r# s) ?5 Y( V, ? q
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
@: Y4 f0 x9 ]5 Y( E# h1 i1 gtrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
3 s! [" Y/ G% D5 n- hacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is7 k) b) r u2 @9 }
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current# ]- R. c: T3 O6 n/ z) W- C
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable3 D/ Y% j+ `4 t8 f
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on" Q( e# d' }- q5 B
November 15, 2006.& m" N9 X) b4 b3 c$ [; u+ d
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
* P, A' y n1 f& {" Y% sfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge) s8 r8 F7 ~4 P; c- n2 v
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
& i7 Q4 e+ _1 ]$ c; cavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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