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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
9 l; Y- Q0 b& e1 M: f7 }; M+ F% R4 J* [! l8 I. }
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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4 `$ T( Q5 u% X# F& \" p- `4 V TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
1 P- T; T, V+ h3 R- G5 \, P' s) bexhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
1 F/ v0 e+ r* {+ f% Bquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
+ q/ L Z l- C# |- g/ e4 uin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit# {8 p3 n) n% | Y1 m9 w# k8 A
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and( ]) @' N z; `- `1 P! A8 m
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
1 C3 m) V; k3 t5 nQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
2 U0 G, d; v! s) [6 ALePage Real Estate Services.6 y' l" z1 m2 h4 V" z# ?- }
. Y6 _ D3 c/ H) z( y Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters# Q/ ]: J# R( i1 |/ u- h
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
; B& y) Z. _# `, Q b; R, Z2 Bconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
& r& i% D/ J' Q9 K9 X9 d; qsound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
5 f$ U9 ^+ s6 F: k) O4 V! presidential real estate sector.3 P7 q& @' p) E$ J
! M' u; ]7 ~9 ]5 r; v' S2 i- z
Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation6 H: R( i9 O, N
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
; F& j7 f3 @, p3 Q+ ]8 A7 pyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
$ K; C. y' G: ]9 s9 o& C8 a(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
/ S/ y$ J0 y& i& \( U(+13.2%).5 Z! X5 d) N. \; B
6 j$ \4 C1 B( m% J" c "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
R) Q+ }& N+ V0 rduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the9 [$ V7 z& c- ^4 Q
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
5 @ V: f; M* X- E0 w4 bpoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,: C8 m @6 m2 s! l0 d6 ^6 d) x
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.: O* L$ S8 L( c, k: k
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We5 W6 _; \! Z- g
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy- n$ n1 Y2 e5 u3 o9 J
balanced market."0 F, @2 |" j- S* t8 ]5 g
- ~+ H: _( d5 T6 E3 |2 A3 F Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
( z) B1 o7 p1 z$ |considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
4 s4 k' S, E8 `4 f; ?to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
4 i* j9 m7 e% ~' C% D$ E1 Fthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core/ q w- I4 U8 _6 M. T+ W
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
" j6 r/ c% R+ `6 A- h% Lmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
6 A |3 {. D& ]) l" O! abreaking price appreciations.
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9 m: \& ^8 ?) R d0 P% I" o: | Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding6 C, N: g+ q" H H6 T" j
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the' m8 i9 m) S. x/ v! K% s
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.! ?3 a) X4 U, O2 g/ [# ^" W7 b
5 B! X- R# X- Q3 x1 o6 \ In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid$ A' D& o8 T. [
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
- ~2 t T, n( Zconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off0 U$ g7 a9 |7 ?/ h# J% _% s
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.6 j/ L; b6 S2 u; m) c1 _
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers8 B' L3 h. k- T+ v! `8 `
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
+ f3 _' H8 m* }/ n# c) d# m' L8 kprice appreciation when compared with 2005./ l# X; n5 b7 j( P" t6 y
! w& |/ R% l9 s While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing3 P5 z; J+ b' W( F; p; b2 _% I
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and- v1 g9 C0 ~, h0 [& w5 J6 u
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada: R3 [2 F ^5 g) c0 L
are markedly different than those found in the United States.
& @8 R8 H$ C' a! p& j' y8 \" o ^' ?. W( d7 e3 H8 r0 I! Y
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
u1 R$ k& K) cAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
3 Y2 ^( |, E$ U* e7 jfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
, g& Q) F) h6 D. Orelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general$ f# q1 M$ ~- u' T* x4 f
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
6 |( c# E& w( x8 @8 o7 f; Cdownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and0 D9 S! |& i$ o
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization5 B, V5 M$ ^( w
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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6 c, E0 J z+ H; | <<( C( P! w% U2 `/ c7 ]
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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# ?. Q8 U" M1 a, U" F2 }% j Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
' U* c& h3 g* [/ q# C1 q7 m. {/ w# FHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
9 f x P6 p4 uof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time$ k6 c! Z" Q& g. A, `% ~
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
0 d; P! L) B0 Q. m* zrenovations.
! n1 O, C6 K4 W1 L
; G3 p1 h7 [9 s+ G9 O3 i ~ The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
8 ]& t9 ~2 v2 ^increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation% _- C4 k" L* A0 L5 t h% j% G
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and0 {6 ]8 x* M, y1 a: y0 a
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.. h7 [$ W, C5 O) X6 X# z3 K# D+ M" V
0 q) [6 W% @0 F3 v( ? The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer4 |: q3 d- s1 f2 h5 T
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the W; e; g; X4 w7 ]$ s4 X& x1 n
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
- ?3 ]; t2 H2 j$ b7 E600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
5 g) G# _& e1 p$ t* S/ R5 d' Bto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
* U' x5 T6 X8 q/ M8 S+ k) h+ R8 Rand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
5 |# [* q' M2 N+ c: n, ~. m( k
) `: ?; s1 F( C6 B( W9 C" L$ k In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced/ ?9 b+ O4 G" f2 D8 U$ ]: q$ x
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their5 a+ O( R! V+ s( Z! r
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
( } T# j+ F% Y8 l6 G1 }6 xwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian% N3 g1 w# s z: l! h) E
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
2 @! K/ Q4 ^. F! Z7 P3 u+ E% vbuyers with more options when looking for a home.
) o- s; X% U- Y& V# B$ b Q7 P) m/ v# X4 \7 M
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
0 {& q+ E6 `6 Q' Vamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes3 v+ b- K _3 N* D( Y" s7 M
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
2 W! f( a# i' V$ @# I4 f& uas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
0 j+ u, ]# X6 j/ {6 h- f! Bfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.* Y% c2 o) H+ {
* y9 a0 ?4 t( B0 d5 p Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house* |6 L4 B. f( z8 ]
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
5 m; P% w! n" qlevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting8 g7 o' |* t+ p$ P
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
& Z$ J! @ J o1 a3 J; u' r( Ewhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the8 K0 z& v4 H& F
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
/ J, q7 b/ B8 D2 k, Kmaking a purchase.6 g8 G2 I( S$ H7 j' l0 [
% [% O' x% `# E! A; c
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing* t* b' v0 T7 `" y
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
' E/ |8 L, x: K bconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
- G5 F* F$ ?' t2 `centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
3 n! p0 _* u& j3 V' g2 Vattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
8 K& p& m; K7 a" k. J1 Uamenities.
4 o& H% w( x5 ^5 {! a9 V" }* l; q
" i+ ]( K) @( d; G4 A. }" J The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
, g7 e+ ?' j4 s; K/ |throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
/ S$ ^4 c0 D- _7 }4 hacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
- X' z; X3 I0 m/ u. b. A7 Mcontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
6 |& }/ A t/ tdriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
+ b% [7 l- W( {( [0 e6 _- `residence, rather than for investment.
! p( v% G2 M6 u k. K& U+ W4 K+ n2 l2 G
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
0 ?3 t4 j" G9 m) q% \2 thouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
$ S( ~, w& r& b& x2 N9 Tin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
0 I$ x/ \2 D) A6 [/ A( q- Wconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
6 k! k2 j5 T" |) ~rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
1 u. {: J0 F6 [the market.
4 A) d( h2 G8 W' ^# P3 F
; G N/ T5 J( e, [% r) d4 Q0 I In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through- }1 ?: h/ G8 P5 r* a4 z. b) C( j
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In" l( V" P+ }& A& Q% z# s) m
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring d% N/ `+ t6 {$ _9 {4 P
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due2 z; K) g; r0 y9 j- O4 ~
to the shortage of available inventory.8 \! j% l# M2 Z& V" D
5 }( e. d& S* A$ V
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its) U6 q ]! N \7 \
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains* d* i9 C# w6 d' Q6 Z. v1 U
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses" P+ `! i3 s% z+ e. v
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.' Q/ z5 c& K0 D. h+ ? Y
* ?8 h/ P4 @" N$ f3 a8 O
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
$ S$ d' h6 O2 k8 f6 sin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low2 D' J! e+ V) Q) b1 c
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
- s/ W8 x% O* P" D8 {4 ^) lpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
" E/ ]$ E7 h# u# {2 p- Yprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
9 u5 h' Q4 e% V9 Vseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
) }! S6 i* A x! Z- @buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
0 H$ y/ J" u6 t, ?
7 P' s4 ?7 c! k: f Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter6 h1 s& h/ H! Y# }4 p* @
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
2 g [' ^, k2 y8 {: \/ `9 s$ r( Y: }remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,* C5 I' }. v9 I0 D
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
2 F; z6 c5 D* S b. E7 H( iincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve* ^+ S- b5 Q8 Q
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
6 C3 R/ ]/ O L: h5 qtowards the end of 2006.
" B6 A# P5 m7 V+ z1 q* ^) [0 K1 r( U, T' {" ]% A
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
6 c) p' i0 n$ V* Y( Linventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable$ E& ]) P# c" S9 E
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
6 i( [% |8 s) e( P+ j: `& X& U$ Rgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
7 Z7 f: j# k# A# r' }, rforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
3 M" O1 x( P- O& H6 ypressure on tight inventory levels." }- G% C9 N' d' q6 g* q- A, d
1 m ~* {" O. S! v
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic3 O, G8 E1 [) a* w
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people( m6 N5 w) \$ q- {3 D7 B9 e
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
4 c8 ~* u2 b* b+ A7 Dwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching; s- _6 @8 E* X5 A0 A/ t
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.7 [" U5 e6 |- L
3 l6 ^, |" B; C; t7 X2 |3 \
<<( x' [% ?8 J; j8 J
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006- [' r4 L) {2 w' [8 q4 }
* {. m$ n- j1 U5 O
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. J4 @# Z2 E2 t- D8 T, K( c Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey S1 {# `+ n7 Z4 M& r* H
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
" t8 }! w% z- m. P. L0 J0 D* G! y 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q30 |5 G$ \) o, \, m. h
Market Average Average % Change Average Average3 x( G0 j& ^9 N. l: ]. H
-------------------------------------------------------------------------. `$ |9 ^1 p- K6 |3 ^+ c) o1 i
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000 `4 R% \& Y0 }, x% U2 i0 G" c
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
: o6 h- {3 I* ?- o7 ] Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000 Y* f' L. a) E8 f( Z5 D
-------------------------------------------------------------------------" N. D! E, i- |! l! g, W) F
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
# s: X( n# B6 H/ [& Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# K' l& l0 b% I, j/ \0 K: D8 o Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
+ x b* m: p- n1 Q% ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------/ t& i6 T" a, n3 W9 l
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
w" e# @: K+ ~+ y) d -------------------------------------------------------------------------$ p W0 }- w/ `% q* T$ E7 }
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
. S+ l5 x, b/ i' X% S -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Z+ G4 w0 u2 L$ J' K$ C Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
1 t! t" T" k1 s -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* f' Y/ D7 X& T Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
- g! K5 n, j. y/ _" m& \( L+ f) _ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- R- c% y- m0 q
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,7667 B* i/ T# O5 ^6 R- _4 y
-------------------------------------------------------------------------7 h8 Z7 D. {( E' p) ~7 e
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707( v1 C. N$ ~* w# g$ j; ~+ s
-------------------------------------------------------------------------$ u2 x y2 M) W0 e
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
) C& f( k4 C$ W) n ------------------------------------------------------------------------- l( C6 }* O1 i- n5 V% P
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
0 z/ \" n/ L: L3 t1 K -------------------------------------------------------------------------& N/ z% F6 L) P( ~- A$ G
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,7149 A% Q& X2 L( d' R/ j$ { p
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
; m4 |* _) J( o3 S+ ? Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
) A _6 y/ ?& o; g! C- z -------------------------------------------------------------------------* a) I( f+ V Y G5 p
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
: ]+ L* b E/ t3 o, v -------------------------------------------------------------------------: Q& ]9 W( W! t# z$ f, e0 B# a I
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860$ P8 [5 T: T( V) _! g
-------------------------------------------------------------------------$ P2 p, V6 q4 K X8 m6 R
& R0 Y+ C2 Z! o- g A+ A* A& J
-------------------------------------------------------------
0 P5 I- L& @' w! N2 O2 C& K: f3 ~ Standard Condominium3 }: G' d7 b# @- R/ [
-------------------------------------------------------------5 w, z4 X& }) m9 W8 {; I
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
* I9 ~( M) c* E8 L3 y$ Y% V Market % Change Average Average % Change. r! h- a; Y; g2 n' Z1 v) Y P
-------------------------------------------------------------
8 I) q: U6 E3 W Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
) N; m4 t4 _, q0 x- m7 c9 r, y -------------------------------------------------------------, {: S. x4 o3 v, u, A) s7 @
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
0 W8 o. r1 Q# c! s) M -------------------------------------------------------------$ G4 ~- q0 n- C7 l0 v. T4 }
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A5 G5 u0 ]: }5 S# R2 s/ ?6 s
-------------------------------------------------------------
{3 [( y4 f, K Z# I) i5 i' J Saint John N/A - - N/A/ O* \( P+ u- S6 z2 F9 ~
-------------------------------------------------------------4 z) y7 H. B% I5 X- l# O
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
# { X" p. d, Z2 @- w" ]; j -------------------------------------------------------------4 V) ?9 G$ {6 C. ^, o# g
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%5 a/ w1 v" |, N( ?( t2 C+ ?
-------------------------------------------------------------
* l x+ d. c! O Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
7 E5 c" {, ^: e1 n5 k -------------------------------------------------------------" p# G: T* ]/ W- F( c+ ]0 C, V1 y
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
( a+ n3 [) I9 v( ?7 H -------------------------------------------------------------* P% B( h* D2 \4 a8 ^9 `' T% w
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%* Q8 g2 q* {% D2 j( k, J! ^# e
-------------------------------------------------------------
$ Q: ]0 J0 ]3 s0 J: G7 o1 U" I5 y Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
' `6 Q5 D" n( d -------------------------------------------------------------, Z6 Y" z* i1 N
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
+ J0 w5 N& o6 B" O4 Z" ^ -------------------------------------------------------------; O& H1 r8 g+ S! n+ `& \
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
- d$ R: \. r/ U -------------------------------------------------------------
! O- g% J( J- a) n; R Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
! n9 [+ i& @4 Q9 r2 l$ j( X -------------------------------------------------------------+ a7 i) h' l2 s# K+ |
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
2 r! X5 g' @( O& J -------------------------------------------------------------
; v- z9 T. x! \) R Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%0 i5 O2 @2 m6 z ?6 ]
-------------------------------------------------------------
5 b( `2 z+ Q }( X) r: I9 a1 G& T National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%# S; G9 a+ t1 h% r
-------------------------------------------------------------
2 q! F. d! A, \ >>" P# k& \4 A$ A$ w N
4 o8 s6 H5 G& |9 d0 H9 G Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
5 H7 B) p+ O% jin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
' V7 ?$ | F& m. G" q$ `* E: DJohn and Victoria." u- P/ ?8 O# e& Z3 D
4 ?( A3 h! D$ Q* L3 a4 J6 b
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
: b4 _. q: K) @+ [. d jcomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of- [! r' S8 P6 u( a) v
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
7 U, M; u$ K1 ^3 M* B1 y$ Z# q6 treferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
r" Z8 Q' n# mtrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
7 }( p5 ?- l* Y, Zacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
& x/ h4 s2 {. }2 Xavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current1 a. [6 T: e7 T% G" ~+ ]& A [
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable! g: m' K6 c) L7 Y. L# B8 Z
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on" s% s6 F/ Z$ ]* Z
November 15, 2006.# ]) U# k2 F; d! D
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
5 }; y7 k4 q3 l% b+ Z9 Zfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
, M6 J$ T E; {provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
+ R: T% \' _# o1 F8 W2 r6 Favailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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