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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
4 c9 }* i# r/ [4 L3 v# u/ @7 q
( x1 _( J, ]% P" g3 R7 k% V- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
+ y# Y5 y9 g) [9 K8 |6 q$ L
7 G( x& ~* W" I: N G0 O TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
- k' ~' W7 X& Q8 H2 i I( xexhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
& j5 ~! `! Z0 D5 V7 Iquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
2 ?5 v9 g2 |: e9 ain the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit. [6 R& }( g+ N% E5 ]3 s
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and: t2 g) O8 r' v6 C7 s
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,3 k) N2 w# I0 k" r) D& |1 p
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
6 R. M+ g1 {' y1 _" F1 R! mLePage Real Estate Services.! k3 E ^/ }) m( ]! f" W
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Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters% I7 p0 k, G7 F8 t0 D( B; Z# c3 q
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
% u; i) Z% n# d! W+ yconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
5 F+ z( ~1 g% P' |6 z8 ssound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
' ^* U% m! e7 Cresidential real estate sector.
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Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
4 S" p* m q1 E" w' I5 u. @8 S& Foccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
1 X7 m' a) ]5 O a7 ?year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562# T" I( g% T. k) K7 Z1 c. [+ `
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
1 }% X/ Q2 a) u, |- f% W(+13.2%).# m1 i3 Y9 h) {$ p% V
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"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth9 p, }% n; T0 n3 G5 G; h6 D% H
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the: f( W) T; c; s H
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are. p' u- b& _+ [7 t
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
6 O# Q- K/ J" y1 \president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
4 `0 [' H% s$ x. W5 E. M"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We& v- n4 j$ F. ?3 m
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy. s% f+ s5 n& L1 \
balanced market."0 L! I: Y0 O! v, [- Q& f
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Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
/ C* i6 ~7 m& D* Tconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
- g* u5 `* ?* y" i/ s: Eto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
9 O% \4 t7 H- _* y/ _/ E- p$ H/ rthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
+ [: ^4 K& J! Henergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,/ P) q0 X* J2 b; j9 T
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record) a0 W$ V! q6 d' }6 k
breaking price appreciations.
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; g, [+ Q; z3 x) l9 N) k2 ~ Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
# T1 V e7 |8 b6 c! ?economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the: N! f( |. f5 h
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
$ [( x' y! [1 f' y
8 c' \$ K% w1 J/ Y- f In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid# [3 x3 U3 [ v9 v/ w
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
- t. u) ]! U% V- ^, d) s7 gconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
! a& K) r. X S5 z" ^* s; G: j, `slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
/ ]) w" ~) |: j) `In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
7 {/ T3 p/ Q' H5 L8 h0 Ggreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of8 n! `4 a7 \ O' i% M* w
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
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While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
% D. E6 O+ H# A K) m4 Wmarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and3 g( W4 O- m) ~: s
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
6 p- W! ?% y( m+ {0 J/ G7 v( Lare markedly different than those found in the United States.
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Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the) k% o9 |; w$ q5 @
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
$ c) ^& z9 ^* h6 ]1 R2 kfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the* v7 q6 a4 z6 `& s- ]3 {# c
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
8 T7 h+ L' Z1 d |" D2 X! \affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
! L- L- j$ f7 E2 Xdownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
I) ]: J" t+ }$ R7 G# Qaggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
/ Q% \- }1 P" b0 j. q7 \/ umortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."; a2 T% Z; Z5 r% V; o' u+ ^9 N5 |4 ^
4 D- _' `9 e4 j( v: U+ h! F8 [$ l <<
# Z7 f! ^$ D) i$ g& L. V2 E; H REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
" j( C4 G4 R; ]4 ^0 aHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
+ a4 H2 B6 y" i+ {7 w8 d8 p3 Hof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
8 |' ?! f- F- i ~looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of! \# `. ~7 A9 y
renovations.
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' A& Z+ g7 x7 k P# p The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
1 O; r q8 \( Y2 d# H$ eincrease in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation [7 Z" K$ c7 Y; t# m6 c
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and+ J: U6 h3 R, z& q, K* o# `$ D
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
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% ?9 U% A4 D" F7 g4 P! S2 g* a2 ~ The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
& r9 Z9 _; A1 K! N/ o! ~* X( kslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the" l8 G% i. G( D
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new( @: U: W0 T$ x0 r* C7 x
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
0 }) y$ w* I U$ ?; o; dto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
. O, k2 D% ]. _5 A7 w3 [and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
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- a0 [$ V! l s; I# o: H+ a4 K' a In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
4 b% D* n3 g# Bconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
2 _# Y3 _1 W' [. Hhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
; y7 z6 m0 @: R4 l6 v' l5 _was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian2 Q' m' |/ A1 [$ X
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
2 ?8 i/ \# W! L& Rbuyers with more options when looking for a home.
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. d6 O6 X& F: w t, j/ r, T# \1 ]1 ] Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly* o) @4 r ]8 W3 v6 V
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes# ?" _$ Y$ h5 y, J
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
7 C1 z' L8 o, Z6 [" _as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
# [! c M; E) H* ~! E! P) gfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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. U' W9 F. u! h" ?# C: N1 t# ] Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house0 B) b0 q9 v! d- _9 Y' m4 m& V) Z
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
, X6 k+ m$ i$ Alevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
8 T6 V, G7 O! |1 M) q9 jfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
( M& I+ B) Z+ F! T! H* e5 B* lwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
2 S' t0 `( _; @! f$ K9 b- i7 ipressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before( _" S% j/ ~) A# ?, a
making a purchase.
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* L7 _! [2 H3 A9 V4 s/ a Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
" R& z* S8 f, G0 {4 z4 umarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong7 O5 X- T1 Q) y; e( }
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city( {0 v" Y3 [; o- w
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting* W; P5 [' M' l5 D/ P$ p
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
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The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
i# E" {. L3 a0 B* `throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
" U! j9 G: M) T& p7 F' k7 wacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
4 b( E- V$ ?8 ~* Icontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
4 P: h1 ]* j1 J2 n9 o8 wdriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle7 j U/ } E; \2 g
residence, rather than for investment.
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The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
. |! c- e/ w \8 \1 fhouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
4 a' D" s% f4 k8 _2 O5 [# sin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer* J9 t: x" x+ G# a& X4 F
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
6 M$ F3 h- G5 \, p% c( S* crate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter8 U( S4 t& @7 B" m( m
the market.! `" K5 U; g8 _1 P- n8 a. P0 f
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In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through* o5 ^ b E8 p) D/ ~! ?) _5 d
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In; D; C4 S M& m, |4 K# J x
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
* }" `. e& L- h* tmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
( E; a* g! w, {to the shortage of available inventory.% b% E$ ]2 Z6 T) n1 t, V
& X7 P2 s3 x4 i4 }/ C8 L9 t& l" X Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its$ Y6 r6 S! W' @4 D$ [+ S
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains3 s" i# f3 Z7 C6 n/ @
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
- G( s/ K4 r9 h. ]3 b( ~struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province." ?8 ^3 A8 U n1 K |; D
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Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases5 o0 o. o. r4 {! X" F: Q$ V
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low+ y4 P( U, e& z/ h5 g- u
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that" X; u. f$ _, k& c7 x
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring# t/ @6 E& Z5 f% `& b1 e, J4 O
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer1 }" T5 O/ u5 x
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
& P! p. H/ C# S7 gbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.) ?% @& I. k4 S3 x4 V6 m4 q
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Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter6 Y2 t8 I( C+ D4 n+ q
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
* J) a( L( w' L e: C! \3 s& premained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
3 R8 Q- d m$ qmaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
1 b {# O5 W: U! J3 ]8 S) X& fincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
4 E3 y$ `; }5 S. G0 v5 Pin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
, U8 s8 X! W: r0 |5 K: Btowards the end of 2006. 7 ~- V6 b& L8 o, P* d7 O g
0 b+ n) P8 i: D- p/ I3 A1 c/ B& XWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of' N/ k2 _$ p; c; Y0 V, }
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
( {4 K9 M9 K4 w! B$ G5 Rto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse) C- C" B8 |5 K7 X' i/ O" p
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to2 m1 r: y# \) H0 R. o
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added' k( u2 D$ u4 p. V1 B3 L* `% j
pressure on tight inventory levels.# m4 u1 {- B7 a; m: ?
, y# g1 u% I5 X( D Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
+ t. A3 g& c" ~fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people+ ?& G' G2 `6 k ]* j7 r }4 G U
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
- l# i* Y: m/ ~& X* j" Ewhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
/ x2 [4 q( K( W' ~* E8 e" tfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
6 a* ]$ p5 K0 v5 G2 K
4 z. V+ c! M1 M7 z. C0 N6 J <<$ b+ e6 X7 l d x5 m( Z3 D
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
3 h4 O3 h1 F& r0 n' E r3 V( s3 ]4 A( Z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Y) N J3 |4 E! f Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey9 e5 Q- l0 g+ O: x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------" }! ~4 ?$ O) l8 P
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q32 V# `* q. q5 Z! f4 O
Market Average Average % Change Average Average( L# q1 Z3 h$ K
-------------------------------------------------------------------------6 T9 Q4 k' f4 _( D
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
2 \8 U" A; [9 D$ c/ X -------------------------------------------------------------------------' Z, j( \6 F) D" ]
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
% n' y2 ]: i) c. C4 K- g2 r -------------------------------------------------------------------------
M. C( N, l4 u, W- E$ j2 ? Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000# i* _. k1 d; c% m+ E
-------------------------------------------------------------------------. S/ p6 C5 k9 Y8 k) W; L. @
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
) s" [* ?& v' Q' ^/ d' {, {* e -------------------------------------------------------------------------
! v& p2 G4 N+ J, D e7 b( A' ~ St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
/ u! @# }+ i% |0 A; q -------------------------------------------------------------------------& S$ V' [) g- F
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,5835 A7 o/ [6 r6 D" g9 j2 h4 \
-------------------------------------------------------------------------$ a* w% ^7 ~: E! z# M% x, B( G
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185- P$ ?. V3 a$ D* P- X \
-------------------------------------------------------------------------& S( x- q0 Y9 w! o2 k4 m) o' {/ B% I( r
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250% `$ ~: j0 _( [( t1 Z% o8 c/ U& ~* Z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------' G N! _( ]1 p7 n8 Q- ~$ a, J
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
4 Y: A5 ~) F0 r/ K -------------------------------------------------------------------------
) o1 D$ f/ Z' d; C0 x# S Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,7077 W# t4 l/ _* |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* T) s* U T: x: j3 A Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500) ]4 f& w) x4 H& ~4 @1 A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------) K7 P9 O, b( k+ r. u
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
) Z) D3 h. P( R8 I: b0 A -------------------------------------------------------------------------, ^. W; ]) U' o8 I# W
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
1 h/ T( @9 }5 S/ j. J -------------------------------------------------------------------------
" Q4 E' J" Q% f+ J! \7 l5 F Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
r. T( X' }$ o: `6 X N; I -------------------------------------------------------------------------9 i3 b3 I! n! n) W" W! H
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
; g6 F u5 |4 B7 d) z9 T6 @* t: g -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* @6 C. ~' j% _ National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860 z# L( n/ g" k) I* N; B0 o
-------------------------------------------------------------------------7 F: U" {5 [: g# I8 Z
6 m3 y; b, S F, N, S -------------------------------------------------------------
2 m2 h: h- A. q) @ V Standard Condominium$ `1 }: r& U X0 S
-------------------------------------------------------------! {+ @6 W) N- c1 o" R& M/ t( @( ^
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo. x$ s/ L2 U( o+ [- a3 V
Market % Change Average Average % Change
) K2 n( _% B2 ^8 a W& m& ? -------------------------------------------------------------
7 j \" R5 o1 b Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%3 z( ^( w# E) z6 O& G+ R( z
-------------------------------------------------------------
u/ [, o8 ~$ E+ O Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%6 W3 _" J; T: l
-------------------------------------------------------------4 K( P# q" u9 ]/ }4 Z. q. D1 o7 y
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
0 j2 ~" @3 p. |: o V1 c: G% X -------------------------------------------------------------
/ E9 @# H9 s0 O0 r9 w( C Saint John N/A - - N/A% `2 M! r- {( W7 u8 t$ n4 u
-------------------------------------------------------------, p# x1 k8 w! c+ ^8 L) s+ h
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
' |6 a7 C8 N! ?) x -------------------------------------------------------------
: _3 `! ?; [4 V' d* }5 V Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%+ o- ?( U: B6 N7 F- Q5 x1 M
-------------------------------------------------------------6 ?1 ~; v' q$ \4 |: c0 q; F
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
1 ^/ i0 g) v. j% ]1 Y1 c -------------------------------------------------------------
5 p6 |+ M+ ~- u$ W0 N$ b9 q Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
. A+ B. t$ H K. _& B) n$ { _ -------------------------------------------------------------+ v" c+ M$ T3 f8 r6 E5 S$ G: N
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
/ F" c0 |/ S- A6 y -------------------------------------------------------------1 A3 Z3 K w4 K& @% o
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
' d, t# [1 X! g/ s" ?0 M -------------------------------------------------------------
% X" e9 N+ @5 z6 E7 _: G Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
1 c! N) s! X" K- f ------------------------------------------------------------- |& y( \- v M9 o1 P) m, a l
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%. f1 I6 f* @3 V. S7 o( w( ]/ n
-------------------------------------------------------------
" Z+ K4 V4 W$ m6 J7 d0 I/ i Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
/ J9 G. [$ G" o: n& B0 E -------------------------------------------------------------4 f4 w! E: o+ D: ], h4 y. D
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%3 y" h! G Q M3 y E
-------------------------------------------------------------
8 W% Q# v# j% k- N L& O5 n& ^ Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
, c# k1 g1 h; v6 h+ @" J -------------------------------------------------------------) V. F. S1 j# M1 A6 N# `
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%% f9 I0 _( `" R4 ]& X- B" c! M
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 i- F( z* e" O8 @ >>5 w7 ^3 R- |. n: i
2 M) T% U% S) @3 K! D8 d' H- a Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
, r+ [, B, N" B/ oin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint/ A, l& X* J% J" n4 n4 t4 M
John and Victoria.
2 _! C- H% y z% m% S: ^# O4 B. K3 p ]: w6 Q. b0 h+ z: s
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most3 a* P8 a% t! M# {. U+ k1 u
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of* ?7 M/ y6 H0 i: r% q
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release1 S" D) Y- z8 s) e/ C8 A
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
- c% ~' ^5 V6 _, qtrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities- N2 ^2 \1 \& o
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is! E" U7 A5 ~ s+ \: r8 v1 k/ t
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
& {- ^0 G z1 V) A: {figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable. u$ W" n9 ^$ @6 q( L r
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on9 A8 G, H/ o& W* \% O0 b9 N
November 15, 2006.
8 l$ D; h$ n6 r, v$ ^ Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of1 @2 \* u3 L' R: i. H
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge* H( O; d0 r$ j
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
( g: j# p( ]0 Gavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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