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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
8 @, J$ ~& ]+ a/ n) y. n& C" c, X9 }
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -- H9 _- N' _$ L0 b8 ~% o
$ O9 O& x% j9 H9 ^# R8 O7 w
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
7 }' h1 F1 A; B9 k3 c/ K$ Fexhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
' x' k- _6 T6 R! Z3 b9 `quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic0 W3 X, u0 x+ O; v
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
' S' B- E: r3 l! m3 pprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
: \' Y; a* q/ X4 _8 }more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,# c2 \. Q3 i6 |8 R& {
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal" a( {% l! m2 }- O/ E) G- }) e
LePage Real Estate Services.
7 d3 N: R y% o& }% J" q
0 x, J* Z# ^3 P% F Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
0 |$ c# [8 M5 F3 |are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
9 w4 s6 @) k# e; p; g3 x# L' kconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and) W6 L0 @! J% n
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
: ~% B0 s6 b* O" B8 I/ Jresidential real estate sector.6 o+ g, o% K, e y
+ {$ r) J+ w. a9 I, a5 ] Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
1 g2 d! k0 J6 C% i% loccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
( F7 M! _( J8 n! K( ryear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
2 v, Z4 t# n% Z0 ~(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,3800 h4 t4 j; G# H4 y: J Q, A
(+13.2%).
6 | k, A; k( _
0 H) K$ s! J: `! C9 g0 c "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth# v, q4 o4 O" f' Y
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the4 V8 W6 o# i- q- C: o
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
& Q- ^* s8 ^7 e" Y& _: Q; T8 K4 \poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,0 I2 q: V: T, d( v1 o
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.# f' X( G8 A+ A
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
9 P+ ]% N0 r7 Hwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy0 P% ?3 B- }# G0 y' Q3 F
balanced market."$ c' Z7 \" v; ~ D0 l8 d7 i
- G$ p7 I6 ^( f. Z3 N7 Y" l' v
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,; I. W* J+ @& ]9 V* F3 i
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift9 U$ ? g* J1 J4 u8 n7 A: N9 K
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
8 _! b( M: d1 Othroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core) H0 z1 ]. {, Y
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,, P! ]; [4 F9 i8 u) \
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record8 A9 F+ o# N J/ }
breaking price appreciations.- `; _& A8 Q! }2 c( z5 r
/ z. [- v7 Z+ w2 ?: x, M
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding8 H- P. j5 g! ^3 l
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
& H% ?2 k6 `4 X1 r6 V7 K& @9 E Glargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
; M1 R5 o# D/ |& z8 ~1 U: L. M, o$ A Z' A( G5 Z4 s4 O* O) O& r
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
/ d1 l! b; ^2 B5 _economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer" m9 z4 Q" ]6 W2 q" d( _
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
$ `& E2 z, C/ P: gslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
8 T; S, i9 b8 N) n$ bIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
! v6 R7 _ L @; ?3 J! {greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of: E6 n0 Y3 y8 z- o% r1 Y
price appreciation when compared with 2005./ [; \/ `3 Q+ E1 d4 F" n" m
( C/ L3 o7 p3 R" w+ z# U/ P$ h6 P While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
& I8 N1 c( N3 e+ c5 o( mmarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and, _4 `: T8 y' L, q! a7 Q+ n
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada* Z1 A+ V9 r1 i8 B4 X$ A, O" n
are markedly different than those found in the United States.
+ i% z, F! J/ H0 W8 i. M: g) \& V8 e0 l3 {8 y' a6 A" X
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the/ o+ A# s/ S! f9 N/ I& ]
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's- k$ @! p, e6 \- N2 Z* M+ L& V
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
* K# n9 R$ s4 B- ^% s$ g! Brelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general6 y8 Y) Z" g- C) n7 f& w
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the' j4 j/ h# H+ _; j' O o8 m
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and; X' H& }; N; a2 w
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization# J4 U% Z( A* U7 q% n& n
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."' ?5 G6 q5 P P m) T
* j, P9 i( S3 x) c; D( ` <<
3 }/ [# O- w8 Q5 E" [/ D2 E REGIONAL SUMMARIES T% A$ G# N% q" M
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- y3 B7 x) p; P# U; B3 F3 _
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in) ? O$ d- a* v# P8 a- @8 r
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate* q5 y: V4 s7 G1 `2 i5 h
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
/ N% V% U, g( Ilooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
. F! z& [" m2 E4 E! j% a( Vrenovations.
" Z- F: Z. {8 {
- Q+ m$ C% Z3 c, ] The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight5 C9 h) M) ] w5 i' g" X* Q- B4 |( N' f
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
% i, A3 ?! B, hcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
" [* C2 t) H) m9 QSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.; O% \. O( p- |
8 C# H( O2 P& N1 r" n7 i$ [; |
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
3 [- b7 Y7 Z3 ~" k6 g4 n! Pslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the, J, O7 @( p" r% E# b: ]. F
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
( \0 }9 `$ Q/ ^; b' K; D4 {# ?2 Z600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
% @1 m, u' V$ d/ \* m' x. k+ z# ], Wto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
# o1 L- t- U8 D0 oand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
0 \1 Q/ h" a- W, x" Z% N3 H! E8 j* t# u X2 U: t
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
8 {6 k0 h9 l& `% E) R+ k- ^conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
1 C: `( L8 \* T- ghomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers. s* m# \' ^4 |$ X2 Y
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian( u! d' P4 n# T3 i( A/ a
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing$ S+ p6 ]) L. g3 C. Y+ b) y+ A
buyers with more options when looking for a home.6 W7 X5 c( ^8 {# X
: R2 }: y3 @, d b" h% {) }; P Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
, x9 R! w' G$ T5 }7 Mamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
`3 B# o+ H% g" V) o1 W' f' A9 H/ npriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,, p3 q6 C# \3 R
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last- Q) p D8 I6 G3 W3 s
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house3 m: C U" V1 A% W
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
* R2 b; d- a5 E7 |levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
2 J! z3 n; p+ s2 q( w5 z5 `first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,6 |2 S/ U; F, x' ?( j) R* Y# T# c
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
, g0 Y' t: D! v1 M3 M gpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
8 D( y/ U3 F7 @* nmaking a purchase.
+ K, `, k8 }' ]' X0 u, \; M; E# z
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing3 u! Y+ S3 h! `; p, a
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
! ?- q5 [ X( Lconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
& S+ K' s: P5 l$ {centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
: K# J3 @; e' n1 W5 k1 P+ d7 rattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
8 E* H1 ?! F. q) P9 i5 {3 w- i8 bamenities.
0 V1 |! ~3 m1 j( F
% U8 c0 h, V6 E L( w The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
, _) V3 t: k5 G( Kthroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
! @+ O$ h/ b2 q8 Lacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has+ E/ U6 Z i4 ^; P+ N; V
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been) H5 ~6 K i" t) o7 x; _# P* `$ T
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle+ z5 ]1 i& J( ^/ ^5 x
residence, rather than for investment.) B" n! X6 G( y: t
" i' D) d; z) Y
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as. Y% _+ S' E" v% f/ C' g9 Q
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted4 U( z L4 l' w0 [0 s% {' f
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer) H% _5 K/ c; h- e
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
7 i' M+ l- [* c& D& krate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter9 z; e; F. t+ ?
the market.5 d& `$ \6 b6 ?3 D+ s- v1 p
3 V) N# W+ x7 b5 O" B In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
; ~1 D; l. L; U$ ~July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
- {9 L8 g- c! ]9 N) |( TAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring9 R9 I7 M, |8 W; r
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due* \9 \+ z- V8 k, g6 _
to the shortage of available inventory.( `% f$ P$ E: ?+ R" ?
9 b3 D1 L' Y+ X" {: B X Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its. ~: O( x2 `" Q) y
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains( i* d9 i, C7 ]) J3 ?
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses2 T/ t5 ~ H0 V4 y; F# `, w
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
" o/ o, ]3 V' e7 ~/ ?: R) a; S0 Z$ O! Q: g9 l4 V
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
4 t/ z6 H6 T9 p8 y2 f3 A" @5 i8 f Ain the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low9 M" b" V) v8 D3 {" v e
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that/ l' x7 U9 u8 p- _
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
1 A5 C8 T+ {/ c" g+ xprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
2 C+ n7 c; n6 l' T) Useason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
1 d. K+ h9 N( y+ Z( m3 R/ e# }* kbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
/ R! o1 i; v8 f3 O/ @$ h
# _* E7 `- {. {0 {" D Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
+ m: I; w6 ?/ d; j2 m& ^as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
) W, W; R Y! _* aremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,' e+ y' E, ^' \# q7 |. S T- t8 x& @
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices8 s% G/ q- m- P, S9 n
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
9 N! y, O: ]: @in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
0 d$ i2 Q3 ]& y3 |, G5 gtowards the end of 2006.
" [, J2 I; P9 e
3 X$ s: k" d) k2 I! SWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
1 V3 n4 c) O; W: b' ], {3 C( X9 r& Uinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
; U% h j. g5 K( dto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse( S; R# ?8 N4 d4 w/ h( T" {
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
' {- h; }* L+ D: X' H3 P* i% aforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added/ Q% m1 E' @& q! P$ v$ n0 f
pressure on tight inventory levels.1 V' {$ q" q0 a" a
: H: S$ j& o* W* C) b* g0 C3 t* a Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic e* [1 n4 r0 D$ u
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
0 M: `0 `. y! M. T% u' w9 S3 iinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;; D, {- v6 ~: c0 |4 p8 L
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
* G' d! \; `/ l) N* J y) zfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.7 @& [7 o% h ]$ Y" C1 R4 N2 P
# `" M6 J: R4 U9 O, V <<
5 D) A' f6 D2 Z# j Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006" b+ {/ l) h1 e6 U! M
" N- w6 T( ?+ S; i9 Q6 B! |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------/ g8 k0 K. [7 M4 v$ I$ f* f
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey V) [/ Z* g4 I- z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
" O+ H- F; [5 }! }' ]& s 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q32 [" o, c) I& j9 k
Market Average Average % Change Average Average
! p6 q$ [2 ?+ o+ A8 I8 V -------------------------------------------------------------------------
- {$ ?% p- t/ v; A Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,0006 J% v7 d& M* ]/ i& |2 o$ C. T/ n
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 F/ _( _# r/ S$ ] Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
5 O* w# ?* o b, i% f* c -------------------------------------------------------------------------9 J8 i! ]- b8 i8 g
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000! s! c; z, T3 P: O# X5 ?" L8 s6 j
-------------------------------------------------------------------------2 U" k# o' T: {) V! p
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -1 k$ w0 p" P+ w. L; `$ s
-------------------------------------------------------------------------2 c( s. T% f" [! I6 g8 r
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,3336 L* o( J* M" l3 N* i
-------------------------------------------------------------------------' \6 |* [* N7 q
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583. P! I( l& S9 I& a/ R
-------------------------------------------------------------------------. ^: |9 o* z* w% |$ m1 G* H
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
# a- C6 t! d( m* c -------------------------------------------------------------------------
. N# q& G4 u! w5 g" w Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
0 `% `/ z# A) L -------------------------------------------------------------------------
" ^, ?! m% X: X' N( K( O Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
) z: x! m: K4 O: D6 M x7 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------% S2 F0 G' e1 t9 f; ?0 P# Y
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
c. h9 F4 d! h6 b -------------------------------------------------------------------------# P% S: R9 ^) |4 k7 ^% G, T; q
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,5006 e8 z6 \2 Y j; w
-------------------------------------------------------------------------: ^7 s6 i1 t, W
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
7 _& Y0 e9 c# Z9 U6 |$ M -------------------------------------------------------------------------; m5 p6 q+ s: n, E' g2 B% F; `7 y
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
, x# u5 f9 D K9 s -------------------------------------------------------------------------
" R8 |5 H/ x; c2 V Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
! w3 _! e7 C# |' O; V7 S -------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 o" U+ g9 F0 R7 B2 Q6 f Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,0006 o, Q. f* g9 a+ B3 N4 ^
-------------------------------------------------------------------------: Q2 i6 u* @2 n) r8 H- G; x
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
9 O1 S$ j- I% S! u. p -------------------------------------------------------------------------( p" C5 @# \% o0 C
; J7 O W8 o- ?9 v1 y -------------------------------------------------------------
4 `9 c% M7 ?4 j0 ~4 F$ ~' t+ y- K/ y Standard Condominium
9 g* K0 A% Q& h9 r3 X; r. e$ ] -------------------------------------------------------------# ^/ K/ K! ?+ P+ N: E) f! e
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo6 v% T w& }3 ?. Z5 M- [( u
Market % Change Average Average % Change
6 j- E* Y0 s7 _3 U$ d -------------------------------------------------------------/ l- {1 m# `0 C/ t2 l8 R' `% @
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
% C/ R0 O0 ^" I1 d f' @1 O -------------------------------------------------------------0 C+ H: B7 ]# L" [9 g9 h" m, x# M& n
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%: c+ s ~, X" M; _, ~# D! m6 e' e
-------------------------------------------------------------
9 H( d' ]6 ^8 C Moncton 4.9% - - N/A* n) X6 b/ L' v6 v8 g& i0 G
-------------------------------------------------------------6 K1 a% {' ]8 V) H8 I% t- s" L5 V
Saint John N/A - - N/A
% g& p0 q. F/ r! G7 w4 _ -------------------------------------------------------------1 M' l$ k, \$ e: o% S6 N: c
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%3 r2 n) n$ ? l b/ c
-------------------------------------------------------------
2 O8 S8 U- k2 } Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
$ s* g A- O; s' s2 R; l -------------------------------------------------------------7 C2 j ?: A1 [3 @
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%! O$ `& b# s% ?' v& G
-------------------------------------------------------------8 K+ g t* V$ V5 K
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%+ {2 p1 }9 U2 e# o- y* W5 N
-------------------------------------------------------------' X7 Y. H, W v: w% [
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
2 O/ R1 q, A7 @+ M n9 W# A# B' v7 X -------------------------------------------------------------
& q; z Y8 P" h. E/ C+ G Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
0 g( A/ `3 j$ A1 b$ D/ O, m -------------------------------------------------------------
6 x( [$ g+ p9 ]# W Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
3 ?$ t; i0 x7 Y$ p5 o1 d# k -------------------------------------------------------------0 M# b3 Q3 n7 Q+ R* e) j) k0 J1 B$ s
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%4 D. D1 n2 g3 l8 q9 D) {
-------------------------------------------------------------
) y5 F5 E4 v7 J4 w Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%. I+ _4 J5 r2 h: I, c% v
-------------------------------------------------------------
% f: u# y# j+ J v8 } Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%5 f! ~0 C4 q, w
-------------------------------------------------------------$ U/ ?2 d1 @2 x% I2 A# G8 d
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
) f* l; v( |! _+ U$ L -------------------------------------------------------------
% ?' g# o( ?( t7 q3 K/ ^, ^9 f& z National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%$ x+ g- D$ K9 P& _1 {/ }1 M
-------------------------------------------------------------" B* M. c0 F1 _; I
>>8 p/ F% H7 Z* k0 r
a: B; \) T1 X' o/ t* ~
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
- {8 R$ r; P. ?in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint3 W1 A6 a& o, J; k
John and Victoria.
$ I9 h7 J. M/ o' _: f* u( o. @$ e3 g" ^2 Y9 x+ V' ]+ U. ~/ ?
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
; I: C/ w9 F7 I+ e6 Z6 c2 ecomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of& O% r: X) _* m T! z) u
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release3 o0 k, `+ A4 l6 L+ Z% J& w1 c- u
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price* T7 U4 d" R4 C8 f5 b, p
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
) j8 Q/ m& t' @4 o$ hacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
/ |1 g* a+ p9 M; ?# _: Bavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
# N& B/ l" E3 W/ H1 @ i4 o8 Ffigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable6 |' L$ m6 i5 ^6 G
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
% ^- ~4 W7 v. k/ k. J0 QNovember 15, 2006./ c/ V4 v/ D) f7 C/ J7 u
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
' ^; W) L5 T# @9 C$ J& A# n% y/ e7 |fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge! q! T2 |% u. t7 X1 e" k2 d
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
) g9 I/ @7 y4 R, ]available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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