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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
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- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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2 v! W: R C1 O7 j TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market2 D+ n7 I, y) R$ R# j2 |
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
& {* p( l( J, squarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
5 l, ]- v$ h$ sin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit+ {2 {+ k4 G/ g) z
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and' \! P2 j" y# m
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
9 k" c7 A8 k' m6 |- V* e2 u7 z6 M6 sQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
9 ~% \: {( Y& C" I6 v# r4 R9 aLePage Real Estate Services.' D/ H( ~9 D5 K
8 C. M9 _; _1 T Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters7 R* _+ o: z( _" b4 Q
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic0 [* P2 k4 i8 Q. ~
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and+ q! R @5 N4 [; o9 {
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
3 c- u) h! U: bresidential real estate sector.
5 B: V) {# U, y( g8 [/ g* R% z @
' Y% H' r" ]6 i Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
! J6 @% ^* N+ `occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)( i3 n8 c/ g1 G- v8 T
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,5620 @" S* j/ r0 x% Q! r. }% J
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
) b! o6 }' q( h4 t9 b(+13.2%).
+ z" ?7 n* C0 {! d# ?( }6 Y7 s5 g) e: O3 C6 j; c# H* P( L- X- o- `% h
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth0 ~; W& T' R5 J1 Z+ |6 j+ v- B
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the* d. O! t" z% m: E! ~- ? z
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are+ h) }% E+ u% g- D. s7 s5 T, \. L
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,: j# w% ~1 P0 B8 t; l: N
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
: F/ x( e* ?3 ^" L' ]"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We& g/ F1 d* u1 ^. Y g x/ _5 [ I
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy3 U1 ~( q0 \9 P/ A. {& }9 X
balanced market."
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Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,( ?5 A2 }7 N6 w2 b! q: _) I
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
7 b( X- s0 k" _to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
6 d6 f5 s. o; V7 ]5 `: Ithroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core6 y1 `" } W* H. `: a7 ^
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
3 o; I* k' D8 l+ e+ V7 p6 _# cmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
" w/ N- P- C6 B j( [ Z& Lbreaking price appreciations.6 e2 h. _7 a5 J: \+ m
4 J- F. k1 k' c& p# k
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
" e/ d9 o S9 l$ e! y6 p, }economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the/ e# a- K& _1 _" y& ^
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.# I; t; o) C: j& q6 M
8 e) ^9 W' u. V$ g" Y8 d$ m7 [
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid5 C4 t2 Y o6 h" V9 V
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer% q1 }8 ^$ P1 E3 H/ t( Q
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off$ O$ K9 k* X C4 C/ _+ j
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
/ w6 n& l- }5 f8 h. ^$ {. AIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers1 o5 ~/ S5 `3 S
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
7 c+ }2 d3 o& }5 Eprice appreciation when compared with 2005.
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While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
6 e U) X$ W. O0 umarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and! v; G# a# C) _7 U+ x; m' b9 I2 ^
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
& ?1 Z$ T* @% `. Zare markedly different than those found in the United States.( L# M0 {6 c3 b% p' Y
2 @5 c1 g5 Z. H% ` Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the1 S5 d r0 F! g; \+ x8 v0 F
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's% h; ?1 B [0 \2 W# J* q% [' _7 ]8 V
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the* J" } f: ]; U, H! ?2 T
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general$ ^( h- Q* r1 o! ]+ C( L
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the2 s1 r7 t' v# d! c( }3 P7 W
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
( X+ T, E) i2 laggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
1 k* N4 N( _9 D: |( H$ A* `mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."8 v5 E* G/ x4 k4 Z& I
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<<
! v% I6 S% A: A; r' _ REGIONAL SUMMARIES5 U- l) ]+ v6 K! C' H& K7 i
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. k# j9 R3 b0 [+ V Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in) S9 F$ Y% E$ M7 ]. |. m B2 `
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate3 R5 c. j- ^7 a% F j
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
& b8 u& X D. N3 ?; D# H/ s! `looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of: X4 ~ Z; Q# M1 _- R+ H. A$ x
renovations.
3 o0 L% q2 b0 u: J s* z
" _& F# J0 [) U [7 N& w6 b" I The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight+ m6 {# I4 @0 u6 C
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation) n7 a2 A5 g. g1 Q! M0 G# J
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
. X6 w( P/ Y( b- }7 m+ W" g1 _/ fSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.) f( f4 h- h W! n, U2 B
: c2 N! h8 ?$ H$ u. ^% s- ] The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
1 o/ o, i* [: S- Gslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
, v' h$ i8 ^# F2 \7 N( J4 fquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
/ I; ?2 ^! F9 S z8 d600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores1 ~: `+ x8 L/ c C
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes2 _1 b9 O1 P* ^3 s8 v
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
. {8 |+ h7 m+ j4 S, d" s. ~; ~ S8 H
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced) s" I& a. l' b5 b2 j
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
7 x: ~' P. U6 q7 Q7 P4 X8 @& fhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers$ t- B. h! M7 `8 Q
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian: V) h! ~" R6 i2 A0 Z8 _; Z
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
. p8 }. w) i6 W0 sbuyers with more options when looking for a home.- W3 A7 E! Z1 y: |' M
; O, `! F% x; f. I+ U8 X Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly) F& L0 i* P+ n2 @. A
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes h& X3 k% t! V4 Z& S, Y/ |
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,; q; S% o& x5 ?9 F& U
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last J0 e: W) U, x; D4 W2 L
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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/ d# l8 B8 H) J2 ^) j" A; g& Q- A Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house6 O' Y$ _+ f, C8 n0 c( q
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
: V; L% d( ]* Ylevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting" P) r! T A* E2 l' ?" [* i% e
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
! g* j" U% A Z, }1 kwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
* w2 i8 E# t' d9 z. P2 K4 kpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before! H @1 |! ?* S1 E
making a purchase.
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5 T- o+ N. e* v7 C/ Z: a Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
1 t5 k; o8 |# T, l7 ?4 {markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
" Z0 R3 z9 b7 L: |7 s$ m2 d5 c2 |confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
! k$ V( m( @. A4 w* o$ y# A( pcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting& i5 I, D2 N& ^3 Y. R* O) j+ c. ]
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown0 \ \/ j3 b3 H0 z$ \
amenities.
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The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels- w* o3 g& w6 v& Y6 o `
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
3 C6 f9 n: f4 t4 b* Bacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has$ P$ E/ f4 ]; s- Y5 B
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
|% M2 H/ E& C( V! r% Tdriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
2 }9 M7 s) N. m, ]- E# V# x+ Xresidence, rather than for investment.1 N i6 o- E0 @0 O1 N8 v# r" L
3 Y, p* \+ E% W2 \5 z* W, ~- R' X The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
2 _/ m1 D! ^& U+ D/ }) v% C6 Thouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
! u, Q0 l/ N* Z* B5 cin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer5 }' j M0 ?3 z- b& l( p
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
2 [9 {6 o0 H5 J1 t9 R; W7 n4 |rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter0 E! W; R9 D) g# ~7 i8 b: P- ?
the market.
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In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through3 s( f# s% _" l) h6 r
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In2 H1 o1 a& e/ w
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
3 Y$ T+ B: ?5 U' Emonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due/ b d3 @' o ? e
to the shortage of available inventory.
- i x2 a" o9 U! S$ S
- t1 G+ h% a! ^1 v3 J4 d1 @1 ~ Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
: I% |) X- x7 j# [7 n. q5 omomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains( u" w( r2 R2 i7 I# G
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses$ X* B o8 l; ?! G. A6 y5 @
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.( }3 { S0 g. }2 }8 p8 {" p
4 {# I& `+ p2 @8 {
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases5 _. J" A0 W/ W g2 Z0 z
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low, E) Y' o$ Y9 b/ M/ i6 U. Z
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
/ V* m9 Y6 l* Jpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring/ a0 ~* F9 k g% r
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
5 n3 s/ z0 A/ Eseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as" h5 q/ \4 D1 a0 B3 G# ]
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
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Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
) N7 N& ^3 ~( ^7 s2 z1 m$ z. I0 las activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
. u3 v+ n1 d8 u+ z* M5 eremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
/ G! t; m; \4 Zmaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices% `# U& X3 h: ] l) s
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve* ]+ d6 d! A( s4 e6 p. r! S# u
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
7 F* W- {/ J& a+ ttowards the end of 2006.
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While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
- u& s0 ]4 g7 r0 o- l" kinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
$ t1 S& f. a; y& t9 Oto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse1 w0 L4 x$ I9 C
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
2 u& m& |+ L5 y3 y& Uforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added; R h# j$ N( P" M
pressure on tight inventory levels.: A0 E1 ~. N; u" |1 f6 \+ A
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Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
, k* u- F9 t2 q0 P6 X D7 Dfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
" F0 ^' m- S+ J Yinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;! W: S, k% B o. v
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
7 q$ u3 }3 B- ~" ?0 F4 g. w( @for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.7 O+ s- W+ i4 f- F& x
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<<& S1 B% ], d9 }
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
+ v2 G/ {. L0 H
, B: d; k- Q' ^5 o -------------------------------------------------------------------------4 p f6 o! V/ H( ` @: }
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey* N& {1 ^0 m) ?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ Y) h/ t. @ Q3 R) S$ d' `' R
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
* v( x0 T8 g! M+ g' |, O Market Average Average % Change Average Average
0 a q0 S L2 F$ ?3 Q8 I7 t -------------------------------------------------------------------------1 N3 s3 a4 U+ O2 P/ O
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000) q7 S) I4 h0 c% M
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ \ L, g' }+ V2 G; q Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000- y" }8 J2 V( X6 l/ \# o. t
-------------------------------------------------------------------------2 \0 |) m) r, ?" }; I5 x+ t
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
5 z$ k8 p1 O: i o) ]+ d -------------------------------------------------------------------------
; V+ @, [/ f8 x- x% K* U. i Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
4 P4 O5 v0 [% U+ R E& V5 a -------------------------------------------------------------------------
V( |0 m0 K9 B$ {6 @8 H. b St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,3333 o, G. T! r( R; k' g. V. N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
! V4 Y' K0 w: G Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
0 M/ R7 R0 d" R! Z -------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 u. o3 R0 L% N' _3 I& b! _ Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
5 l" a) c, f- Z, ^* q* O1 i -------------------------------------------------------------------------
: m/ V/ e. Q6 Y, G+ } Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,2501 q5 } H, [* w
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
: t% W. U4 a3 ?6 ?9 L9 }" b Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766) e! R8 e' G+ K- J* l% s* G/ i
-------------------------------------------------------------------------) ]) e+ P0 r3 Y S j
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707. B- Z7 a+ g! s: n4 e' b- e6 A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------; `, M! T9 m0 F- r$ D6 r
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
& W3 O/ [, G. P9 S/ ` I: u6 q9 ^ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& D( u0 p! u& H+ y' `* Q5 f Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
; p( b# f: s# u' O" ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 A" p {5 H6 T# F8 F% J. A
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,7141 y8 O% w) R: _1 [
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
: p# A! Y0 c6 N8 g. f1 G5 c Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500- y9 ^ a3 w( a
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
. |5 h1 F/ y2 z+ I( u7 E& E0 b Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,0004 [) {$ W- A: E4 D$ ]: Y. C: D
-------------------------------------------------------------------------9 u5 \4 K& J4 {. A
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860- c. t+ N2 u$ v) U/ d
-------------------------------------------------------------------------5 ?& v; M. n8 W' i$ O0 y1 O
& V* Z; H& I, T
-------------------------------------------------------------* s& {) u& k1 D% T% R+ Q
Standard Condominium% i* \7 ^1 t! V% y
-------------------------------------------------------------
+ [( N* T9 b3 y8 P8 c4 \, c2 \ 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
: d8 p6 T& F5 P) w) m6 K. v Market % Change Average Average % Change
9 z- c) B1 f5 i7 J -------------------------------------------------------------# O/ L; H, I8 `7 C: B; H
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
/ R; ?. b8 v' x -------------------------------------------------------------; h1 M$ w8 b. S) J2 E. c8 @
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%; s: d) x; R' b; u( P) q" L
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 ~& C8 i6 Q6 d G5 k: | Moncton 4.9% - - N/A& _1 W+ y: [$ I3 H. r
-------------------------------------------------------------
! S& ?5 c% {; c2 g Saint John N/A - - N/A
B; \' M. C( j$ L3 l; O -------------------------------------------------------------6 n( v! h* D: d3 e8 t$ C' _' ~
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%$ D9 h) F* F f6 A3 J2 |9 `
-------------------------------------------------------------: W7 w5 Q9 x% ~' ^
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
3 l8 J1 k! j" j5 j3 ^7 L4 X -------------------------------------------------------------7 H/ ?& O1 S- e/ o, ?
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%1 q1 b# {# \, e
-------------------------------------------------------------
! ]. b, a9 Z/ x% O7 p {0 E$ ^ Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%1 L, w3 _8 |: c4 }/ \7 L, G
-------------------------------------------------------------/ D1 f' o/ O- k' L& e
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
: N: V' O) K9 j6 \% w$ o) Q0 G -------------------------------------------------------------& o) }3 S/ K5 D
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%$ ] |3 V+ Q3 W2 G4 }, {& E4 C, E
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 [* q5 B2 u" ] Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
1 X! B: U; b9 P5 b8 R! X2 q }2 z/ f -------------------------------------------------------------/ `. h( ?! \; T3 M% M
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%8 F' I: X" }+ X# e$ d9 i
-------------------------------------------------------------; Q. [( a& o/ I8 f! a
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%* d' |. V ^: w* }: |
-------------------------------------------------------------) o! R6 Z$ ]1 m9 M y
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
% @, t* `& O( s3 P* a' y8 Q -------------------------------------------------------------
) q8 U P* Z# A2 {6 h4 O Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
' O/ |2 Q; ?- U -------------------------------------------------------------# d2 Y8 _3 u3 v
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%, o0 }: c% \2 b5 e4 M9 Z% Y: ^7 ]
-------------------------------------------------------------; D* @# M" J( D) g
>>
" \3 P0 w1 t/ a. C- r" ]- x
5 Y$ [+ A9 x' G' E% K! V* {$ Q$ f Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined) k6 ^7 b$ V2 C2 }, `4 A
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
. {8 X" M0 ~6 H" n0 w5 n8 qJohn and Victoria.! a3 }( y; }3 r# y1 {( d
' p" Z) y. O3 F8 Y The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most* G1 _& [) v- @+ @0 p+ ]/ l/ r
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
2 I3 ]% H4 E$ h7 chousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release4 d9 |% j: m9 o7 G
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price8 V8 H H6 Y" {; j- `- A! h
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
" Z$ w4 w! E6 |# {across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is5 Z3 t7 p8 Z$ x4 X
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current/ \' H' P2 c- F# E; a. q6 m
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable2 Y) n# Q2 @2 K$ @* s" {# K4 c
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
) d( N5 \9 D" Z( LNovember 15, 2006.; @. i/ U& g6 K: X4 Z0 d
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
1 s8 ~0 C; F2 Z! l( O# P6 bfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
: O) T& H1 H& V1 c0 @3 n+ S! ~4 Wprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
3 C5 A8 E1 P# S1 Y$ b- Eavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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