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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable 1 K) Y j4 a: Z ]( E: y! l
% ~! z! C, v9 F: }- c
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -- v1 H9 d" T" i4 ]' J( F/ E
6 S. A) p6 I0 k. c( k4 y TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market! X( Z1 i7 |) M' m( J* f/ [ R
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third6 U2 Q- ]1 g! P2 r. ~ }; q
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
3 y0 @8 J) d; n! Q/ O' cin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit( t: x) O, O' M7 f4 }6 t
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
9 {. y7 L# E8 @$ p! J9 y8 W5 t3 gmore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
2 Q; s* m* b5 S/ Q1 K: rQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
( r% C5 y& x* @* B4 K# GLePage Real Estate Services.
9 L$ y# G$ A. j% f) j) K4 _- f& c9 N+ H! t( p0 K/ L
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
) P% y& Z5 }( E) Eare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
/ M* q) }+ y- l/ I' q3 {$ ?" Aconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and) L4 m* |) G$ Q2 P& b; _9 J+ k$ c
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
, r' ~; t2 Y# Eresidential real estate sector.
9 R* }/ Y% D+ b) {1 D7 ~! [- t3 O8 D( E
Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation% y2 e$ I K- z4 e" z. o* C/ c6 P
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
$ B% |' { @2 b5 oyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,5624 W. W7 l1 o! q% k7 b! d$ Z7 n
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,3803 I$ y0 I+ d4 _' P* Z2 N. V
(+13.2%).: S* q1 c( O$ O4 t5 X! H1 E) A
' N$ a* c z/ G& M$ R8 M
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
+ d3 b" M" {3 Q+ B9 Sduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
3 t, n: i5 ~* g. q+ |frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are0 s0 m' s5 O9 J/ E
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
5 ^1 \9 ~ }* }1 Hpresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.2 V! K$ _0 t/ Q
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We6 |! S- O- L5 t; ^/ s1 P- h5 q
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy4 D0 H6 M/ n0 H" p; h- |7 Z2 l8 ?
balanced market."
6 `* j( O9 S3 F" G' t9 B7 I6 W. x6 K# E
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
0 o1 M0 p3 X5 H. k& |0 lconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift; s* J: l0 a5 a6 J' L& h: c9 A/ n
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued& A. |) b) r7 A4 R% C: x
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core7 Z% _. Y/ M3 `
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,( h. N1 ^3 P+ ]: M- l p7 z G5 O' i
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
* ~# M) H5 U6 r9 jbreaking price appreciations.
; j8 e V4 v" z8 [' g8 h) t) ~4 ^( E5 K+ L
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
/ W+ A1 P! j' S4 [5 r2 Q- v! Reconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
. J5 W' P4 ?8 n6 N! P) D% Elargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
5 v- H4 x6 I1 [ c" |
' C/ x/ e" N6 ~) d% Q( o In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
% f8 P0 I6 k' T6 Q: w- Z! |7 c1 Eeconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer! i* H; v1 j1 g! n
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
: X/ J: q1 S I5 f5 O8 ^1 ~5 `6 u3 mslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth. U5 Z4 |6 ^* D& |: W( F
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers7 p5 R7 n7 A% T$ U0 u( ?
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
2 V/ e6 t, c8 I5 y6 v7 Bprice appreciation when compared with 2005.* _/ N0 q- `7 `4 z
, u! [2 N" H$ g/ \- M! d
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
5 L& @3 o, L W+ l- wmarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and) _2 l8 H0 ?+ O( N c0 }# h% X
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada; o8 z; c% u# F6 C+ m" @
are markedly different than those found in the United States.4 M5 I/ }& `* ]% Q+ T
) q: u% Q3 |( L4 V0 [0 J
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
) }. y+ g- ?+ \! f) u) uAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
' Y V' Y2 c8 b1 c& G/ e1 cfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the" ~! y& w) V0 t- m0 L! O) H) }
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
0 Z* H2 W" ~) M" Y1 R9 w8 C c Eaffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the3 B ~, l- U5 q" W* t
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
" ^+ M) W) B9 E5 t2 l; U. Iaggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
" [8 I, N2 G& ^1 ^+ k- Tmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."4 I8 s0 G! f3 l( J; y/ Z2 |
% S4 }% V/ [* y% D1 C, K3 d <<1 n t1 {. F5 b! R
REGIONAL SUMMARIES7 |: ~; [7 l& [$ K, e
>># {5 W9 g* S" a$ @
8 V( T3 H3 p, e& {7 W" J Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
8 ?! ]# [; \% P$ V- r5 a3 X- THalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
! W, [& P0 G- u( w6 p5 {2 _of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time3 i- c( j# d/ @/ j7 b2 y& m
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
3 c: {. L) m6 m' G7 E U& Srenovations.
' ?: B! P1 M$ w6 C3 i. u
- D3 g: f2 V7 T4 ~- i* H) u The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight$ k4 }5 @# n$ r% \$ \* W. X0 L6 f
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
% J3 @; v( j x: I" P% H1 Bcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and( c3 ]; x, k8 u6 m; t0 r6 F
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
L* n4 [) l: n g5 F" U
4 \ m" D. X) y$ w& L The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
2 Q5 R: _4 ]! U4 j# ^- ]# z& zslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
0 L. ~% o0 V$ u, L9 P+ Gquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
& S$ l6 h+ {) m; _3 R C1 F600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores. [& f7 }( I* i" v+ K" u3 B4 H0 o
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
' L& [( t) v9 A, o" @1 fand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
, Y; q8 B4 z# |
" r6 H* G3 `' q, k2 c In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
! S! Z. g- s, G+ _* b8 r iconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their! |; g) F, @( P
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers) V! X. G: a# m4 J) N; A
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian0 v. V; P1 _$ M4 N' \8 }
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
2 I5 Z. u9 Q C: Xbuyers with more options when looking for a home.
9 O/ d' L, c; @# \. w% @9 v' E7 @
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
# D2 w- k( c% Q, yamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes. t! Q" l0 e i
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005, F x( u9 R0 h. x" j0 Q$ E
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
1 a- x4 A. H: I. ?few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.: q7 S/ m2 B4 j( n
: _( X# [5 m5 O Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house/ P/ I1 W8 L7 D. P* @$ { L
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory8 z T2 H) d* t' H
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting; @% I( N2 q' w7 ?% H; R3 a3 N9 \
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,9 g4 C1 ?3 D9 L; }( x% L6 D! l
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
* W9 G5 ]7 Q0 Epressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before2 f+ S( B- E: [- w
making a purchase.0 f% P, M; Y: i3 d9 X
5 f" X1 Q# J; Y7 D Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
$ F$ Z$ j. ^# D9 w5 Nmarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
/ v' z: [5 n5 vconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city' ^2 |' M9 \9 ^5 R
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
; P+ Z3 U: K2 m% `) k6 j7 Nattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown& Z7 p+ G" C$ g I
amenities.9 S; y e: M. c2 V0 s8 N
8 f* j5 Q6 s1 `9 h
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels% W- W* N8 h2 r Z5 y' V
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
' t: l k# H. `1 ?/ q, H0 {+ Gacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has9 i$ a- i, e$ x& Q6 ]; P7 ]& [
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been# D- M& w5 v* U' w
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
7 X/ n( z6 H# B: V2 b7 q' e/ u* U |residence, rather than for investment.
/ s) Z& [/ i- E* O0 t7 z* ~4 p0 q0 P
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
% v8 W ^8 [( @6 _! H$ Phouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
" l+ Z8 i' _ O! P# Y3 `1 Min a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer4 M" f4 i8 k8 E0 i$ ~4 P; o
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
+ w& `8 ~# r* i# j" T- R% M- Lrate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter& k# e8 S* X* Y: W- _1 q& L9 B
the market.$ o* \! _# W9 n+ n& M
0 p1 t/ O- M* m2 v3 U8 B) `# W7 V9 s In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through+ Y1 T2 {: c5 ~8 J' l, F
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In# k/ u: V+ r* K
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
* y, W+ a" D5 Q5 v; Zmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
* e: d9 m# Q3 Eto the shortage of available inventory.
) k N( ?. s, E; ?4 g3 h6 R2 B
1 z5 v% O V5 a m1 n/ R Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its; \2 z6 D V$ @, R4 T* h
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
# z' K" M- {/ p# a+ B3 Nvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses% L% y; {$ ^) K9 d
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
) Y2 V3 _7 D4 }0 ?2 t+ H7 {, v
( p/ z! ~8 k# v: U# L) O L Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
* y; y+ [+ }5 D5 x0 ?( iin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
) V8 k$ v5 ?9 p/ O5 vunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that" G ^+ V4 h- h# y* c4 @
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring8 Z2 p7 e! V! O3 Z* ?3 Y9 ~
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
: x1 s+ ~+ E' z2 Nseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
( w- W' X; R2 ^1 N& I. \2 L/ K7 Qbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.& p# l; }7 g. q4 `3 E
- V* I2 B& L( l) o Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter! B1 J# K: _1 X) J( H5 C3 a7 n4 L; U
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton4 g! Y$ a( t- X: o& U
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,0 y2 e& J4 `5 q& H; R' e, x
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
! U! w1 w0 Z2 I4 Mincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
6 ^2 e6 M- d2 e. cin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly9 I) t7 L, `9 A. y
towards the end of 2006.
3 H" }9 m8 M" E+ X& i0 C
]; Z% y* t' }' v5 ~2 I) D* lWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of T" |" [. i3 m3 C) C& g) i* S; z
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable& v6 z: t0 T& n2 J# r0 O ~
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
- g7 ~- H/ f0 G9 ~+ [' Ygroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
. e6 r0 J0 W, l% l% Oforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
% @4 s" U# p) Opressure on tight inventory levels.- ]# \$ [2 p# e* b* P
9 R. ^- l7 A3 i) g+ z Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
$ u% ^& r1 L6 e* Q9 d. c& k g" afundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people ]+ B9 K, v+ T
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;2 X0 P& U) v, d( @
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching9 o; T3 I# y, p7 w
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.3 M4 G. \3 L# k3 {' [' s W# e& Z
4 ] \8 e6 }0 ]5 h) l$ N5 l <<
' ~0 a" o5 X2 y Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
; {6 X1 I7 p# t V5 I# l) w
9 p; s3 {8 o) o -------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 s" `0 W8 r- w6 C9 b Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey5 T/ K5 @* J B3 {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------' r; ?1 y4 j$ X, m1 T4 k* z
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3# C0 Y) b0 y; [; p6 j5 w
Market Average Average % Change Average Average7 P& W( P4 {( q
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 p. q4 Y2 c! Z) U# T) o Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,0004 U% q. ~! o9 q, D
-------------------------------------------------------------------------, o8 h$ q6 F. B4 n) ]5 S
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
1 d! r+ W# T+ d ------------------------------------------------------------------------- O& ]- B+ }0 v- b
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000$ x- k2 \ A) J* p/ s, Y+ R5 P& v
------------------------------------------------------------------------- c1 E6 V0 x1 t! j& c3 V( }9 |
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -) k Z5 C* c0 g6 L% O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
: t7 C. \/ ~3 A St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333) V, V& [0 U: d b8 g' W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------* g* v: q1 Z0 O$ \4 e U
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
: K3 {8 `0 F# G0 i5 {( H -------------------------------------------------------------------------& w$ T U" J7 \0 e# j
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185$ l! R$ U; P* @- [) R( k, X1 O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------1 u2 Z. G" C3 ^" U1 S( S
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
3 s: G) m, z% D# V- z -------------------------------------------------------------------------- j1 V2 r. D) j( R
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
$ w5 A& ~+ k) l k; o -------------------------------------------------------------------------( M. \0 {% W4 b
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,7070 L3 N9 c {( g
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
' s! z8 u% @) U$ v; ~ Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
. C# d! s, T- _% Q0 F -------------------------------------------------------------------------0 @* }1 Q& q4 R; s: w7 e; X: D
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389/ m' K G; Z" ^; d
-------------------------------------------------------------------------7 \) A$ Q S3 W9 d# [: G
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
. a" |$ Y7 O5 }, W1 c -------------------------------------------------------------------------; i% S1 W5 U0 l$ x
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
. T8 y# S G5 G/ T" [ -------------------------------------------------------------------------7 c3 n* J# ?7 |( H- J |
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
0 B# S! ?5 \9 j/ \2 _# ?9 G -------------------------------------------------------------------------
! d6 y! V% z; ~ National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860# U) x8 |6 o9 ~% g
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ R9 `( p8 I" f! d. c8 y5 v# U, |: j3 |4 h
-------------------------------------------------------------6 U. ] m$ g& z q
Standard Condominium( h) C6 r" D5 O" \
-------------------------------------------------------------
" N- F: e7 E' q" ` 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo# {# I' a. D9 r) I
Market % Change Average Average % Change5 ~+ o2 k1 h" @* L
-------------------------------------------------------------
* e( A; H7 r( S Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%# J" z3 R3 Y: A" @; y
-------------------------------------------------------------% A5 H8 U: B1 O5 x" O; u* H
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
& r k1 G$ w9 f -------------------------------------------------------------
& M7 N# R/ B# }' ^! p: c Moncton 4.9% - - N/A& e5 g7 O/ K8 l4 ]8 A! i
-------------------------------------------------------------
( R; b6 P e9 \) N' J }% I Saint John N/A - - N/A( J/ Y$ S6 ^# |4 W0 l/ Z3 Z
-------------------------------------------------------------: w/ [% \0 P/ l8 j
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
R3 V* a" Y7 u* L( d9 {/ l -------------------------------------------------------------
: Z* g) P5 w7 n* {, g Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
8 B1 K! L& }* O6 k -------------------------------------------------------------
. ?9 b5 O. p( u( Z Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%8 A& k* S+ b" a9 i. k) I
-------------------------------------------------------------. }& w% \3 e0 V8 D. O
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
2 ^% k' q! {: x& a3 C5 z1 ] -------------------------------------------------------------
' F: T5 k: G) n( t' ~ Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%* i; q. ^9 F0 H. V$ f( ^
-------------------------------------------------------------6 `0 i1 g& ]! d
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
# v* N( l9 }$ y* m' v -------------------------------------------------------------
! n& T& K7 y, f" \" y, G: n+ b5 v Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%3 q0 j* ]% p, A3 r7 k. M& W: T2 k
-------------------------------------------------------------4 I8 B N5 o% G8 ~ W7 }/ K
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%- b6 h$ Z, M( U- o3 V% i
-------------------------------------------------------------5 g7 ]# p# R- l/ O) `
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
( N s: P1 h) h% x0 H6 O6 S -------------------------------------------------------------
3 @8 F! |, I6 E( F Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%: u9 U# F4 ^6 L: z! \7 n2 C. s! o/ [
-------------------------------------------------------------
5 t0 l$ Z# a3 ~4 p Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1% t/ X& }" H2 `2 I+ e+ L- C1 C
-------------------------------------------------------------( F5 \4 J' ]! G4 c) V
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%: q, ?6 q! k7 k9 Z7 @
-------------------------------------------------------------
" ~" ^; y4 \( c. W >>
) J& a% x+ Z, S5 m) K7 R2 {/ O) ]( u- \ k! }: ?% `" `& W9 N; f
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
4 R# ~( D3 E% J4 o9 ain the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint P, o2 G; h# M P# ^
John and Victoria.
6 {; M+ U+ I2 q. G1 G# ^) Y9 J U: ~0 x6 j+ T0 M
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most2 p& r: X" s# G# {
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of7 `4 X3 S5 F$ q+ i$ b5 T8 I
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
$ }1 C/ u; d0 @' dreferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
# f# Q/ b% v8 Jtrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities0 N5 g& c4 L. I% r! U5 B) G
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is: s% o' c2 t7 C- [# t: e! w- W* F
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current6 e" Q( s& y4 N5 i
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable7 ]$ w3 q6 Q# P3 J" D7 v, P. H
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on1 B W1 `5 y" T$ l
November 15, 2006.+ l! N: V7 V4 \1 S' j2 q
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of: C1 ]& z/ I! {: t# m
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
5 S7 o T$ h! mprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
- h( U4 Z9 o: [: A8 \( T. _available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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