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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable 3 q2 b+ T/ B: K, K( I) E7 ^2 A
# o& V4 P! ~3 T3 n! k- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
4 a2 k0 y9 _, K3 r; J' eexhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third. d/ z# Q3 G J% f" A/ H+ _# a% N
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic S, b5 Q* D1 d* k$ {" l) p2 I
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
* V5 J% Z+ t2 ^: t9 {2 j" d# I; |$ mprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and3 A8 m' ^" y% L
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,7 S( i+ Z! d/ L# X4 h2 c) D
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal6 j' V) m8 {0 e7 w; g
LePage Real Estate Services.
1 g2 ?! B f0 s/ Z
5 R1 a' m( k. D: R Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
: r- W: `# U: y% X. r* jare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic7 J- H6 |" [( ~- o3 U. \
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and7 X" R; c+ X1 C, u
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the, M. T2 @7 s) O1 l2 {- O5 L
residential real estate sector.
7 [4 o. |- ^2 I7 ]! O
+ l& ^3 H. g H+ | Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
) x" j5 u) M$ F J: \( M/ X- {occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)9 }& E) s: |' ^( i% n% ?
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
$ ~- s- }8 g& j7 O(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
/ N% u' v: H3 }) r: T(+13.2%).
) x( q' a7 x, a9 S4 o1 A3 b- |6 U8 u- w0 z) f
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth, U& Z5 H0 z" w$ {% R
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the4 t' C# J/ Q& [2 V6 t
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
9 V9 S. J$ B& ]7 q. @' ^( fpoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
& Z% l1 Z. |9 Y2 Cpresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
9 m0 I" j1 {" Z+ {9 y3 B3 g"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We% w- j5 g6 G9 i" z, m* a
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
: C2 T- `% i/ k. Abalanced market."# R0 x: s; J0 I# a
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Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
; {; J6 i$ H/ q4 `7 }$ C0 X5 fconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift# y6 o& ]" ?! l
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued* S: e8 y6 T" M8 D9 G
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core$ [& ]) H" i5 l& W: |4 h5 s. P
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,, ^/ z" K5 p/ M6 j8 S- m
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
+ J% h# Q. i8 u2 K" I4 V/ T& @breaking price appreciations.
1 D. G h( Q$ ?
* F) X8 j4 T. \( K& t- X Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding/ H' p' p7 b7 R9 J3 g# ?+ u
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
, q0 p8 l% a# W+ jlargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.# ]' O$ B0 k3 Y2 G
( F9 }2 Q/ n M9 G In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid0 L6 j2 @- b* q
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer; A$ w* x- Y' m, d; t
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
1 x1 @- }7 A7 Qslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.& Z+ F) g& k3 I
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
3 c' w- w+ V& F D! K9 bgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
: ?) G. e( s+ j& g3 Hprice appreciation when compared with 2005.+ m2 W% l0 c3 R. Q0 t6 q9 o
0 V! x& V2 _/ n n* f$ K/ j i
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
" M5 e. [% u N1 d* [$ F6 R" }" ^market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and7 N8 }$ C6 [) d0 \
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
; r" q& u, z1 S0 |- mare markedly different than those found in the United States.( q9 s7 Q- s W( z1 @8 `( ]2 z
1 X7 v- a" m2 _' R- G
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the ^8 h/ F0 F0 L( u5 Q i! P. |
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
2 Z' ] ^2 M$ E Cfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the% Q8 k8 R8 H" Y. F8 d* t
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
$ z s% O. ]/ N; x8 _affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
) T2 B& U8 L% A' Kdownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
u. Z2 Z( Q. I$ F; S- Maggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization0 s L. I8 V" T2 q) n: h
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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<<
3 p2 H- h: V0 e* h1 o. m REGIONAL SUMMARIES- v6 W6 _5 G0 y9 ]! m+ C( C3 m8 l
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in; `2 ~) P# m2 x# r# v! `
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate6 @$ P1 r1 D0 m0 L5 Y; T6 f
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
- A$ j K- S7 }$ k3 J. a) V! Wlooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of7 x' K3 S/ E8 h/ E
renovations., L& H0 F' Y$ }6 \' u" W A
2 H+ x% R5 r2 e The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
, ~9 d% U: ^- A6 J. ~3 ~increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
, L6 L& Q$ C* o: R2 Qcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
$ |. n3 i/ { Z x, {& ?8 uSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
) n* R* H* a; O( S1 p; O! P
" l) J* z) H3 L' ? The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer+ U2 `* x1 @& F# U) g k- ^
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the7 K! [2 }/ i2 Z4 q( w( u: ]2 q
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
5 B1 b& u% Q$ P0 A& f- h3 O6 i0 j600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
3 ?1 N- k. r5 w* Nto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes3 O, r4 a* X8 e+ ~9 t/ C
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options. o, s; `) l) M2 L( H
8 U6 ?; i9 R9 r$ Q% Y6 a
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
' l/ ?- g6 n, f6 c, H$ Qconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
1 d* D; u0 f, m. M- f& r( lhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
- n' B# {) x) u! W/ Mwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian/ |: o) w9 Q) ?8 f4 }
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
+ U; G* t* m. p' }, {' ]buyers with more options when looking for a home.) o" i- b3 t* v8 J. p8 B- }
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Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
+ c+ N1 c2 K; j, Vamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
* M$ _! Q+ |& z5 k) ipriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,1 O' F* I* d5 I3 {/ ^
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
: w4 N. s5 X0 [1 d) Y. Ofew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
* v; L$ N" M. x0 |( z5 y( sprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory' v E5 t& F3 m# I- N. j
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
4 D% [5 w# d/ n( kfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,: n+ x% Q# ]; T; z( |* Z
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the8 q/ C6 W% H4 |; l w8 n6 G
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
7 q% x/ M, t! c6 w, f- pmaking a purchase., d, m( H0 q* _7 S- G4 c
; [; c0 y. u) f3 f* O6 P Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
9 R6 R! y( ^4 r% Ymarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong2 T, b8 v4 G: f9 m/ L, g& I) u
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
7 a9 z+ X7 \: \4 y0 ?4 _centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
" k: E" T& D1 `' {3 K+ }attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown# Z/ c+ [& \4 p( k! K5 \
amenities.3 {( D* M0 X% J2 U, j( K
! G P% G5 O( D5 \2 ?, _0 b. P The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels1 _+ m0 L5 y5 ^) Y/ F- r$ b
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand& {1 B- n; Y( @. K( R9 C
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has2 }* a g" n% v+ Q" q1 S1 w3 j ~1 Z
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been" P+ n" p2 F9 [/ g% V7 x" R. O2 o5 p" o
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle$ R/ U9 J7 C, a% o/ E8 j& {
residence, rather than for investment.' a" e6 X5 \2 `
2 n8 m5 r5 y4 @- V: \- G; v+ K6 n The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
\& f g9 S# w& `) B6 |house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
1 V% A$ C, G$ n' z B# n' a$ d, @in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer- T, {/ J$ a6 B; E J+ c7 L
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization* R* j1 Y- m x6 q) K, b7 X
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
+ k" [& p4 Q9 A' W. Wthe market.
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, Q. i6 V; b+ K! ]9 ?7 _$ ? In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
1 B4 l5 i. B* z D1 c j4 sJuly, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In6 C, n0 l% T. l8 v& l* g! E
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring$ |- U! v+ S; S5 v- L1 y4 A
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
( {; h* w" E5 E4 T7 n% K# W0 pto the shortage of available inventory.
$ f& p; ? P# i- x$ l3 {4 Z5 _" ?& n0 a9 u- g
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its3 N" u7 C* y, ~) q5 s% a
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains9 ]1 G( g$ G9 X, r
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
4 ~" r2 g; c1 w* s+ Z/ A2 r @struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
& W% Q6 o3 R3 i/ |
7 t$ |8 c5 O; k$ ?+ o: A Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
+ h2 S1 Y9 b: V! J# a: N# \0 `in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
" u# B9 [! d& u# c& X! Gunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that+ p$ Y6 A! V3 @5 D6 Z& l W
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
b4 M, `9 f3 l5 M' m- Wprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer' N5 x$ b8 x1 Q) n9 L" U
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
. @1 G! I' ~. B$ J4 P' q, }& z% {buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.. c8 b: V7 \5 g* K& ?
6 s: V# m' ^( l Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
' n+ `7 t6 ?& h) @; s& H( ?6 f: Pas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
( T: z" c- P& S% z! l7 F7 Xremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
. e3 T, N; v* x; ?. O& smaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices7 n+ a% W' ]! L$ h. J. M3 F' P
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve F! G( J6 d# E h8 g
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
0 m) o1 Y6 `9 y+ btowards the end of 2006. 2 w o3 P: |0 P6 G; {
! J: [( Q( K! ?" r7 JWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
4 b% k; ^9 v M: J; W: Y; F$ @inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable3 }- A$ J( D: Z/ C/ J% U
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse' Q1 B) T' v" o* x {7 N
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
, C3 Q% K4 t+ u, z1 iforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added7 @" |8 W3 T7 ?0 R0 z; C$ Y
pressure on tight inventory levels.
& J+ i# a" k$ S2 H0 t" m G5 _, l5 x* s5 d) u
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
8 Q# ~9 `; F. M! W! lfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
' s+ V# l. g! ]8 f5 U1 J2 |0 ?into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
: A0 P0 D$ b2 C) m/ w! |while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching3 m) j `' {6 H. a
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.3 w5 F/ Y$ t( i5 y' C4 |
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<</ F. J: C( u9 @. t
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 20063 a- k0 ~" g/ M/ O' g& p# a7 T3 T
; ]3 _; T6 ^' C6 ?- c" z1 m- V -------------------------------------------------------------------------8 ` [9 [( S8 }: j
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
; ~5 N/ `0 A4 B: I -------------------------------------------------------------------------
% v! n5 n6 h% R4 a; A5 A 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
: C2 n: W) G( T. o Market Average Average % Change Average Average
. d8 {4 R* ^3 p) g6 g! } -------------------------------------------------------------------------7 t( N- t. {# m
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000) ]$ u" g; S9 \3 ~& [, Z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* F4 S( E( H7 o9 [; E( z. t* q Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000; g, R& ]% C9 K0 o, @
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 {6 X5 `' x$ H Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
8 Z( U& R* A l* m- s$ u+ p2 O -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* \+ P( R5 B5 _" P9 e0 H4 Y Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
t6 B N9 h' Q& d) d) y -------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 G0 g9 @ w3 L' K4 o# s ~ St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
! w# {) B; l; g2 J; z( ~, ]: q3 x -------------------------------------------------------------------------7 C( T/ W- D* k; @4 H+ ?
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583, z& |# b# X+ E" a* f
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 X# n- G" u! i) i' y Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
+ L$ i6 O1 {: d; B: a -------------------------------------------------------------------------) ]+ ~* v. y4 b: E2 F+ }
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
) s5 s+ c( R0 [* x( k# N4 p, l6 \ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
. A8 [9 }& z5 ]$ c/ z! D5 s* _ Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,7668 ?3 |. F- |4 A: {6 y
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- W$ {$ Q+ c% q0 Q; i3 U: b5 K
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,7076 [; c G5 `3 Q* t
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 L. {3 W1 ?' F% W# B* B ] Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500! L8 Z. i- Y1 T& v5 G! T1 E
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 d: x: i8 x* C# o Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
. I* x _4 P/ M% j -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 M; H8 {* q5 |% N7 }4 G
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
# E- i9 o6 @6 @/ g5 }- \ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* J. c: m# `/ k1 s3 l" Y5 E Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
4 @+ I: r; a4 s) j6 v! G -------------------------------------------------------------------------" u0 v7 C8 G$ F2 O5 A) t
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
! U. y3 n8 m% M9 W' J2 y -------------------------------------------------------------------------: B# q( }2 G, o; L$ p
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
& x2 h# B# Y: H+ B& h8 `) {- i3 K -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# A6 L0 ^8 c6 |& d" D. [
9 A3 J* ?: H6 N0 d# @2 ?! Q, V -------------------------------------------------------------
% }# G5 H' m- j) k+ l+ t2 n Standard Condominium
8 s+ m9 l6 f+ F% k3 x3 N+ w7 z. ] -------------------------------------------------------------+ t: y8 H6 `" z
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo8 }0 j/ h; V$ o S* O
Market % Change Average Average % Change
6 V9 I- k! F. y -------------------------------------------------------------+ X3 L1 X M+ m8 c' u, w% r0 Y
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9% u2 s% \1 j! n6 P2 _
-------------------------------------------------------------
: T$ I6 e0 s, I1 q) X. v2 ?$ @ Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%8 \- Y+ v0 N; E/ W( P
-------------------------------------------------------------
3 l! s3 W9 z" T6 k3 g& q1 n: m- P Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
( t* Q! M, T( V( T! n, s -------------------------------------------------------------
" w1 a& ?3 k' F; {% J& H Saint John N/A - - N/A
2 q0 f5 k1 Q6 A# w" Y -------------------------------------------------------------7 p$ |7 Y% o4 l
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
# @9 f& A- ^9 `& y% \5 u v1 t" \3 { -------------------------------------------------------------$ L8 |) Y) c3 o# v. e, K7 H7 U
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
2 {% ?* o$ j+ _ C6 y; v; ? -------------------------------------------------------------8 y0 Y* I q4 Z( r/ j1 t0 A& O
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
9 ]9 S8 P5 U7 V0 L* E -------------------------------------------------------------
, E- {8 f' F, G Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
7 T- R* I$ [! ?6 f7 L5 W/ m -------------------------------------------------------------% i' K$ L. z8 V* m7 u# m
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%0 O0 N! C& O/ [5 F5 {$ @7 W3 ?6 ?- x
-------------------------------------------------------------2 U7 F! ?8 V6 l3 J' C# D6 Y9 W0 `% ? r
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%6 i' t: T$ v' V: K9 A W
-------------------------------------------------------------. r6 m% T2 q- C/ c6 r1 b! P
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%' d6 U( }+ n, l. P# T3 b
-------------------------------------------------------------
' @4 E8 j7 A! ~; O+ w; _) p1 B: t Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%2 N# \! S' F6 E4 _9 M
-------------------------------------------------------------
5 o, t5 I% ~9 H9 g2 C1 N1 e5 B Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
3 Z$ h' \5 W8 f& f! N0 i! c P ------------------------------------------------------------- ?$ v* d8 y! p3 B0 [
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
* p$ T6 }7 n( a% ] -------------------------------------------------------------3 r: j" Y8 a, l8 l) ?3 N
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%+ E9 m" {% Z$ c/ g# i
-------------------------------------------------------------/ V9 A/ F2 I. @) u" J- j1 K8 {. f
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%: t! k7 V% y: R8 x- y
-------------------------------------------------------------
, @+ g; J; P6 w >>0 G$ ] P' V/ l. f
0 b; ^1 K+ c3 }0 s9 |( i/ l
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined6 E# I$ G0 U+ r* y1 C8 t: C9 b
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint, F2 u0 V+ ^5 a
John and Victoria.* U$ O9 _+ X( ~6 }
' y4 ~7 }6 v) e6 Q2 \, j
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most+ M7 _; A7 A& j- E
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
& u2 E4 E6 T" D" k; @housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
/ }6 ?% x& v, c* lreferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price) b& }5 u( ^$ ?& _+ j2 d
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities7 i" x2 W$ I/ _( I1 i
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
9 H6 X: ^+ O [3 [available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
, U( }$ @& a7 C' G- R& x! dfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable6 B# `5 V) m$ X. d9 Y
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on7 I. ^+ e L0 T! g4 a
November 15, 2006.
5 p8 [' d# r9 q4 f) I Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
1 w1 t2 `2 f6 P% Y3 nfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
' n; c* A: a- s1 ~. X) O; B7 dprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
0 y! J7 G7 ` l# M, _5 C* g, p7 Z+ cavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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