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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable ' ~# _' ]+ K: {6 T
8 h7 _ {& G. E! B
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -4 L# g w6 p9 \
& Z7 s- ?! {' x9 c6 t/ H* w$ D TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market5 i( f& Y I8 _0 z4 o
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third$ R) v, i1 W5 v% y# z
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
' T, C, q, l* P8 c" b! J$ Nin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit' w a" _/ J/ n- Q. {! `8 t' X5 N
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and `4 [ P# C& T
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
, J5 ]. J8 I+ w! X$ i' |% lQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
( g, b3 A6 L, `% L8 f) {1 aLePage Real Estate Services.
/ \) d' j0 N# E7 I3 J, \5 ~- d) D. H
Q7 v$ Z3 ^/ f8 R* ^ Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters4 P# w* S$ J: m5 B x$ ^8 Z
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic) @! g! z. S7 I. V. e# Z! [
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
- G* m P0 C; W) j% \+ \sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the; ?/ N& n% K6 t" f' S( P
residential real estate sector.
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Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
8 L5 N$ r2 m- G- T" Ioccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
* C" b# \$ `1 o* j7 ]; {+ [- fyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
3 J' C: P/ G2 u, U7 h(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380! J% E6 Y& Y" }
(+13.2%).
# W3 A2 ^% @/ y6 t) I! t o- |0 ^
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth; J* }7 |% d- t( H, s3 ^* }% }
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
. b" S. I7 P$ c8 qfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
# q% R+ c( E+ r- b0 Y: \poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,) ^# [+ Y+ f* W3 ]2 L+ F
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
7 \3 k& n; a: @"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We0 ~# g( R5 G+ W; I) b; ^- U
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
4 T& F4 `! F1 Ebalanced market."6 j& x7 x) B: h! C/ X. \
; M3 h. H3 b( G' R- W" R# } Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
* E/ F% H9 M2 K- G& |considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift& h% z, c0 c- N3 W* P1 E
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
5 U. _* ~# v2 ?# O# athroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core6 }7 D" b, @5 ]
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
) r7 g: J8 G8 l9 _3 g& C& ?1 c7 O+ Nmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
+ Z0 j4 N4 i: ]/ N8 `9 z+ Q- `; Ybreaking price appreciations.
% o* F$ d6 E) f( n1 d
+ M- R P, D4 m/ i1 M- T Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
) W4 U, i5 V: B" b2 i7 veconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the. x; h0 B/ N# N/ Z6 N
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed." y) L6 D2 V8 M5 ?& L; H! _* u- z
1 H- w- y1 p: _9 W6 H1 ^# ?
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
( [1 Q7 Q+ X0 x2 ?9 yeconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer9 k- _& t8 O" A
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off/ M* ~' C* o5 f) M
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.1 P2 A- P! k U% t* U* z0 V
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers2 c a3 r$ P% k7 b: D& T" \
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of: ^/ u7 K f+ p! v" p1 r
price appreciation when compared with 2005.( v f8 T" o7 I3 U5 S
+ {, O4 q2 W: A* z& ]5 n
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
% L' q# t d; i# X0 omarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and' Q, D& L+ F( S0 }
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada+ ^; F& x# p: x9 N; s
are markedly different than those found in the United States.& n9 \% Q& ~- J. i8 T( m1 w
( h! r9 G7 H8 U4 R8 q8 v( X
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the6 {; a# D3 v) {6 K
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
' B% E' r: y) x7 [$ A7 M Bfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the' {, q# |) ]; {' p; W/ P/ k
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general" j7 B& T d% ?9 s
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the$ }' n0 r! x' X* t: i
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
# q! z- g M0 U- V% {aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
0 Z4 o* {2 `; o5 H3 B& ?* ~mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."4 |, L5 c3 C" t, }, W2 H4 y' w
7 L4 ]) y o5 z4 Q2 Z# U <<! l7 U) ?6 h- L9 `; [. B
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in' z+ }& H3 W1 y% o2 i# T# j
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
# V' W' m: S! h; o5 R# H6 Qof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
3 B( w/ W% G+ E& B: p# @looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of0 T6 O7 X2 i7 x9 l. c' _4 m. w) P4 |
renovations.
8 ^% B& ~/ H& A: E- D' z! G7 j4 c
: [; ^. d6 i9 n- q5 j/ i4 K The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
9 C6 K! H& K4 ^: \increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
) X6 {: M6 `0 b2 K, e jcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
# r Q1 i3 c! t8 u: S0 [September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.- D* n4 s: S1 Q$ l
5 g4 A, ]4 ?/ D4 D; \
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer. p- c) g# G& I
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the0 G/ H: {! Z3 |) G6 y# p( k' S7 g
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
1 e. C" y6 ]) I# ^2 w600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
R# T8 b8 L3 C, N" J T2 g: ~$ Qto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
! ^. }4 c& Z# M+ }# G# j& c- _and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.# ?4 @3 {* M/ a* D* b, f7 s
! z5 J: d1 n8 B) o( c
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
/ M7 w" R# P% B2 G) ~9 a2 d# Cconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
* x8 t( Q) o0 X3 g0 r; U+ yhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers/ r, t, I- v$ B* e7 C5 o
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
# C4 V# H B( V! r8 E3 Zdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
( a+ W8 ~& p H) d0 A+ p0 obuyers with more options when looking for a home.
3 l- c8 O& {$ M3 Y( F! o1 C6 z8 q& g# _: Y. W5 z
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly) d2 I5 ^. n1 z- H- Z
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
5 s8 X7 g6 b$ n) s. o6 K: Apriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,! R: N3 C1 K" g+ j3 S O9 r
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
6 Q1 q. U B5 z! vfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
7 e |! F3 S! E2 m
7 n" u4 d/ D! h8 Z6 k Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house0 L/ J3 e5 U, q: D# m; T
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory/ t6 T% ]; z' L8 ?' x& F
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
& K9 t. v( b0 \5 i. r) }& L" efirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,+ B2 s6 @+ T! C- _8 u
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the0 q" T5 l& p- K8 M" y: G, n+ g
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before, b e+ g& m/ F6 e& i1 O+ i2 _+ @5 i
making a purchase.- I; V7 B) y' _; x7 ~1 g0 Z$ f
0 ]7 X0 ]9 b$ }
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing Q" l: n: k F7 P# E7 I# g
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong- A9 D" _9 B! |* ^* {
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
3 v+ R( Y+ C5 H6 R# ocentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
( S G/ {5 P; P4 G5 kattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown* G( P* y1 d2 j& g p, O& ^+ t
amenities.
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The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels; L- E* [* [; p% S7 d
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
: t' D- z! I, V/ V$ d- o6 H1 W/ xacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
) N% `0 Y0 ^6 Mcontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
; z' @: `; g" T% z3 a5 L! V8 udriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle1 ~/ ? J& _( l u A
residence, rather than for investment.
" I1 b" H+ [0 n/ t1 M
: p2 f% r+ G/ ?9 t* r! _ The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
, u4 ^8 y4 a# g% Nhouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
2 v, _( i( }6 m2 n- T/ ~8 V+ g. Win a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer5 y* g0 u5 n: s2 u" k5 {
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization& |8 Q) W r8 A( S& n4 c/ W
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter( ^4 z2 L r, ?, c a/ I! f
the market.
, Q, ^9 m/ f# u- I4 L' P
; e& ]+ ~5 x# D! s In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
8 W0 Q! O7 h( [8 v5 F# n aJuly, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
9 i7 A1 X% M$ s5 `3 }0 zAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring8 z9 G8 J6 i1 j6 n0 }/ V# q
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
* P' r' a% m1 B. W$ v# T2 _% Zto the shortage of available inventory., A; o# G; Z b: u7 {4 p% {3 p6 G
8 `/ ]; _ J3 k7 _( W* K+ h Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
: c8 r& h0 h# x% cmomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
# U4 N/ S' M* Rvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
6 E+ F1 j" ~& T5 @5 @ |struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.. @/ }" M/ L2 o8 |1 K
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Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases, }3 r/ k; v* J- w
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
3 w, p7 H& E+ L0 j2 S% {) Nunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
0 Z! o6 V* J, ]! O5 fpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring# X. D0 J7 a) s
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer1 |" A+ H- W4 h$ M$ d" r) Q8 n
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as' r: x( G" c/ V) y9 m, N
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.; V+ c' q: G7 q; H1 |/ D
q1 h2 K4 i- W) G, _
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
1 r+ N$ }8 T( d+ Sas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
+ X# f+ j3 k# J* }remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,6 @; q' g4 m/ V2 h* ?0 H0 w
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
4 V3 u% I% B; S" n8 |+ V! P% Tincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve# C4 w( h' E- `
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly9 S/ x+ t% c. O# @1 K+ `* c \8 k
towards the end of 2006.
6 T+ o8 D3 f8 N* v6 `/ B" w( R% k
x4 L/ D8 N" {1 T& Y* x6 s( UWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
' I8 I" j+ g t7 E3 P/ Y1 hinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable. f7 I" h$ Z2 h6 a
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse; W. R4 R! A. r8 ?' j9 t& I
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
. @0 i$ ?1 n; ]& ~foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
: a, U& r5 T- Spressure on tight inventory levels.
* l1 ~4 k8 ^6 C1 }. e. D+ Y$ Y' b9 W P, {7 I; r8 a' b
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic+ d% n- Z: z2 {5 }) u% i: x% M9 t
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
% u) o. o% O+ g9 Y$ _into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
2 x) t5 D( c+ xwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
- R! s' R+ O) N& p) y4 zfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.; k' L3 a1 n( L
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<<0 f3 @" J1 k, L7 `, M
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006* A4 T3 c7 q! w4 E
+ g; @& g9 ]9 H- B) ~ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
" t, R: q' H" k$ D+ d Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
' e, h2 O6 \: S% a -------------------------------------------------------------------------5 q7 Z$ f2 Q F2 w. T3 ?2 m
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
& {# Y: |. D s0 L4 t Market Average Average % Change Average Average
{! f$ Z u8 m* T* |( o! P$ s -------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 f9 B* V- ~7 U9 p$ b Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000% s2 V+ H+ J% S% u
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 v' ~) U! m! }/ U! c Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000: u, V1 r+ j& r; p' Z8 ]3 J% }/ P
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
; o. b% i$ g9 S) _. v Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
7 W% g3 h5 m4 o: S/ \' p9 P -------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 a- m1 z0 a1 b- m7 V Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
) D1 l: X5 L& b. Y* y -------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 \/ o9 X2 ?: _ St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333. W5 o% r2 N$ b) A% x! ]; \
-------------------------------------------------------------------------& a; D+ R$ l3 A; Q. u; I6 y& ?
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
' {+ r3 G% M, ?4 o* O -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* n* i; K& g! n( d7 d* C- o; M3 r Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
" w- d ~/ A) b5 Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 j4 L$ F$ X) q9 P1 C Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,2501 O1 A# t1 K$ L' G U' s4 k
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
( l: G# ]7 b6 b Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
4 p' U9 v- E- d! ]# l: _ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 Z7 G6 ^) Z+ \ Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707$ k0 @$ n7 X" R! D/ n! Y
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 h7 y @0 p+ \& w& C Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
$ x' M/ K& B8 ], P7 r -------------------------------------------------------------------------$ O1 \; |0 }, B( Z
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
- ]" x1 `5 |* b5 |* |0 x% v' b -------------------------------------------------------------------------! _# H6 _3 ^/ ~+ G4 w9 E7 w
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714$ c+ k: n/ ~! H
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
! `1 c# U7 P* w. _3 s4 a9 m Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500# M3 J$ ]# w) K2 e. g& A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------3 E; i: ` L( B& e5 _ g0 f
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
* [) ~" A. W; W" M2 F% m -------------------------------------------------------------------------- z* M Y! |. n/ j! r0 w: s! L j
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,8602 {* M1 S5 b/ e: N% K- k! F; _
-------------------------------------------------------------------------' ]- H U- n& M/ \5 Q0 `
0 C/ b" ]& A! J7 O& U9 [ K Z
-------------------------------------------------------------
- a% W; l- O* H Standard Condominium& k' e) g) O& v0 o& e* f: \6 L
-------------------------------------------------------------, R) k1 }+ B& r
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
# Z a6 Y6 G. f* a Market % Change Average Average % Change( Z8 Z9 H7 \- f g7 o
-------------------------------------------------------------
! t" `! W3 I' \ Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
y0 V" r6 L. c+ Q( c -------------------------------------------------------------. G b+ G; K5 B& v: H' J2 E
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%4 W. I$ V- `% Q; `
-------------------------------------------------------------
% G' e" {9 I& t; Q' S: |8 {- r Moncton 4.9% - - N/A& l% Q: [$ h6 c. G( h9 T$ V
-------------------------------------------------------------
9 k9 Q' q+ v- }6 S! j2 q0 Z9 v Saint John N/A - - N/A
0 T6 B$ i5 N! w' A1 C* E -------------------------------------------------------------" Z+ K8 x, P' i! C) ]
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
* i: d& c; k4 o; e- W9 K -------------------------------------------------------------; \1 {4 H, O8 x1 p
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%+ v) k1 e0 t9 J3 A* q% o
-------------------------------------------------------------
2 _$ e r% Q+ h( R* D& @3 Z Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%4 ~( |; e& r s# t$ D
-------------------------------------------------------------+ |( e/ C7 Z7 A: G! I/ v
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
5 d- d' e# F+ I/ d4 \' H' |% A -------------------------------------------------------------; ?9 ]/ M" \$ [/ i3 }$ G3 M
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%9 I3 `* p; V; v0 l* R) K9 e
-------------------------------------------------------------8 D7 q, C; a/ H; b
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
! u. L* a) T0 V7 a$ d* k+ @ -------------------------------------------------------------' i, b7 Q b* G3 G) x
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
) _; [" U7 \0 {, ~0 h, k1 P -------------------------------------------------------------
3 K! s2 |' z/ d e) O0 M. F# o Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
1 k4 ~; R) N( y; _9 m! h c -------------------------------------------------------------
& G1 K' i* E" [" z+ T Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
$ O; |" T/ j- z1 m) I. e( ^6 u -------------------------------------------------------------
6 k4 Z# Y W5 T' y Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
$ O0 }0 |. ]2 p6 q -------------------------------------------------------------
% t0 R$ T% d5 d8 B; c3 T3 | Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%! o2 K( S( [4 h: u3 h# h* Z, `) G% z
-------------------------------------------------------------2 J6 e2 O/ N# N" J' X: p
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%3 ~1 ]* g$ v, {, V3 A$ w
-------------------------------------------------------------+ T# x" ^1 ]. U5 J# J7 I
>>, c m) ~& Q% q* t
9 F* g3 J8 `: v, d+ y6 v/ G9 y& |
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
4 o6 s7 Y: I. o' B& q+ R8 b: uin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint r( D4 [ D( e( v
John and Victoria." F) m' p/ ?2 w
5 ]7 S% p# Y5 L; F B; O) D The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
. U' |! ^- g6 F4 }# Lcomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
) h6 E( y: H) S+ w shousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release( p& y" o3 P8 k6 G4 P
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price2 y0 _4 J& k7 @& y
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
- T8 c% w9 C- O+ _: d7 h4 Dacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
; L7 d( Z& a* {+ C. `. eavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current, g! ?; \ _7 D2 G
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
+ k$ d; @) F# W3 Z& A0 _" Yversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on: k; s6 \; ^: m
November 15, 2006.
3 [4 P$ g# V& N; J2 j4 ^+ y Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of ?0 p% X" d# p
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
Z9 G: Q p0 @. }! _# P6 P/ yprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
/ T. S4 r$ ^' h' x3 Lavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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