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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable * h9 j& j- T# u4 _9 `1 m
1 D+ Q, D- M v* Y" c H) v- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
- l& g3 H4 g) K5 I
: L) C5 o9 E5 z1 | TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market: x1 w) O# V. K2 k2 a9 G* ?
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
( n5 {5 Y2 W! T2 N2 ^ [$ g, tquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic( w( I J+ T& `+ e* J0 H
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit- C( V8 l( p) V/ g6 t) D
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and; U, W- o* g, V
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,7 M/ t: A9 ^7 B' w
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal7 X9 g% O6 [, w9 _" C
LePage Real Estate Services.
& b' E. @1 B. e; ?& S+ u: T; l, y4 ?9 T; U# _
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters6 S9 Z0 h3 p, B" f# k/ q
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic. \2 q' k9 O! U% u. r' J: a
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and2 |& a0 b0 A" D8 z
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
+ m5 G) Y' D6 G0 F& Fresidential real estate sector.
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Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
; A; R0 b5 n: h5 J \! R& Yoccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
1 G$ F& X+ B9 \6 U- G$ syear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,5625 L/ w: u+ Z- f# n" Y6 l
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380+ F3 G' m; t7 Q! C4 P( N
(+13.2%).
- ]9 y2 i; w& _# H
# ?! Y$ x/ A1 E7 @4 ^ "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth1 U( H* n3 _/ ]6 C
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
. m+ h7 W% w/ Q5 Jfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
4 P U4 K6 S6 Q- k+ q: q; _! |4 Kpoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,& k v/ H5 a9 L' ?# S6 }
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
$ H, v/ e% L* ^+ Z- v5 T0 F"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We- I. b0 v9 i' q% z# P" _
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
f5 Q5 A( R! I2 _, y' M2 r0 J3 Vbalanced market.", r* l: ~# G6 t8 `$ W- i
- q3 I& l t5 S1 |
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
8 L' J5 b1 I: `2 s- B7 qconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift% D1 j$ i/ @& T- s
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued5 d8 y$ t C6 S" \! ] v$ d
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core6 r: s% B- Q4 {/ Q; p5 h
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
7 z+ m+ _3 r2 x/ gmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record W! A, q4 n9 N9 f2 W
breaking price appreciations.
' j- z. _$ i9 T3 a1 R2 U' x ?' O7 g. J
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
" k5 N: J9 r1 K" n' p! Beconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
) o7 }* ?" P: I- Y, l" f/ Vlargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.* g# |: Z- F, s6 f% _2 s
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In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
t) x, d& ^3 `2 @economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer0 E; g+ x9 Z2 S7 t2 W
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
- z: J" U( k6 e6 X" jslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
3 C/ `; f4 k4 q6 nIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers5 z. z: K; @ s# F2 ]8 @
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
' Y5 ?3 b8 N3 R2 H k$ Yprice appreciation when compared with 2005.4 y$ f7 C. h1 f( }: N; u; u9 y
# x! X* t2 g, b, c While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing/ ?' D& H$ k& x! F% e, ^
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
: a G0 b9 B+ g/ lfinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
/ ~, b! z' o2 L0 W) I/ _2 H `are markedly different than those found in the United States.% }, t+ T6 p( ^( C8 J
* T' c+ b, ^7 N# ] [ Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
. y7 u3 U3 `# K. z1 w4 x4 AAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
( _) L0 k: Z g* Z0 G$ p6 wfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the2 c/ r$ z0 C7 o4 B/ k! W1 K6 e
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general7 x* j, @5 W+ L. I
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the/ k/ A- o* y+ q% b- S% g
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
. ^, l2 e& j7 w b' Jaggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
`4 {6 Q6 R" |9 }mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."; T! v3 h- P. i h9 `7 x3 ?- Z
1 L5 k6 E) k' {) ^ <<
( v- f9 t: [% r' p/ l: h REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in* M; u) b: h4 {/ \' n) I
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
7 ?9 t2 V" P) c n0 K6 Cof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time4 U7 k( ?+ ^3 q- Z
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of! E f( ?! c9 s
renovations.
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The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight& d3 i6 ^- r0 l5 b; U' K+ q
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation5 B7 l3 {. g. h( w/ J$ D
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
) l* v7 Y7 q; {* _September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
9 D6 _2 I8 l# y! [1 w+ k, z5 Z! }
1 M7 A1 a+ R2 _' m+ V* e4 F The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer) q* n9 q R2 L# p
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the( D! D {2 W( w" S
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new; {% } b4 c' K2 _& |8 u
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores* [) A4 j: k2 @
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes$ ~9 s; r+ F5 q; p. `, |2 e
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
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! z [! f- v g3 u In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
0 s$ e+ S" y$ i: a$ T8 lconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their) V* M3 X7 d0 J) J
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
. `5 U R$ K& }/ `: ]* O+ d( Pwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
! }7 `( t& ]. h+ c! udollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing% U' J! N4 E* c2 I
buyers with more options when looking for a home.
$ @$ {3 _+ A% I! J/ u0 v- n
3 `" Q( `8 L) r- l: v Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly/ R7 c8 x/ E* w/ H. K+ ]! R6 F
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes; w' K) Z1 n3 a) b& O5 x
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,: c) E/ b* R$ ?+ e0 p5 V1 X
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
4 Z1 Z' X: ~9 n# h6 T* r4 J+ v1 Afew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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8 o* P# w# A0 d Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house0 A' W" j: G3 P' A9 W
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory7 z* I1 c4 N$ |- y; {
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
; w5 F; z2 X! z* B- g8 Ffirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,. |% r/ y- R. S
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the6 G6 e, A* U$ k! p/ M' y
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before, i: G# i6 p* f0 O! m
making a purchase.- p a* [. N5 X0 l
5 L" e/ G/ H7 @* B4 C/ Q% X* h
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
8 k% L8 H' y, K' O- v2 {7 kmarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
0 j2 @9 b1 { t4 bconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
1 a0 g) _! _. Pcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting/ p- K/ D5 _/ G S! q* k
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
6 u7 c- J+ s, D( I) Y: o( Z4 Ramenities.+ |7 D9 p5 c) H4 w4 Z! m; f
& ^' a# `& E' h
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
& H- f$ } i, G% r8 m I- Bthroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
1 @6 g% x; g3 ]6 e. T' i2 }5 F, Hacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has* U' ^' \) d* }# G: @
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
# H* a! Z7 N/ M4 Ldriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
* w3 H/ a/ @& V( F( _/ @, F: Xresidence, rather than for investment.! x; a0 F. h( k( T; I
4 |, R" ~! `0 O% v The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
! \1 T6 @) a8 j4 b% p, k$ Z9 S* zhouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted% d+ j1 J& o0 E( L" M
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer( j7 y- r! [. c; P& h5 M& B, y, V, s
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
% H& v- k( n9 W; d( r. m) L2 A jrate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter5 A _$ h2 Q8 r0 B" d& X) r
the market. r: q O m/ i( Y! ]; A _
: T1 P G+ Z9 y, ~$ j7 o; V
In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
+ l( M$ S+ v/ r5 b2 P+ PJuly, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In0 D8 y% f+ k, T* K9 M* ]
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring* J \; H5 S9 n2 u; y
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
0 p0 ~7 p, \, U8 M& ?5 O, hto the shortage of available inventory.; F/ x( k! ]7 [: i
4 z. @( r- {' O9 b( n5 S7 G( a9 {
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
. x1 \1 `* Y |# _- K8 J: ^9 i% _momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains0 P+ K3 [7 S1 h) D& q! b T
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses. K4 J9 M9 r' F; b' U
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province. H1 q8 j- o; q
( G$ Q7 V6 F! D. k4 }1 M$ T Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
* H1 i, J! o7 G$ A( u3 {9 v) Nin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low1 v4 G: r" }; p* X$ u& N3 Q' K
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
0 I& Z6 {9 M: c8 Ypressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
! H s8 U' O. a+ w g5 ^8 D3 E2 oprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
) k, b/ A. ?! G! h% k D0 _season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as' n. `9 Q6 X* b$ _5 @" Z8 ]
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.4 j- V: b# d* r$ D! |8 ^
% B/ W% ?$ F' n+ w8 h
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter7 t0 P. ]6 v, d# L
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton) j1 G9 h* {1 I# O y
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
) P6 x& c+ j, {maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices' h0 S( p1 I$ l/ m- n
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
! A7 G1 b K' J; L) c8 Ein the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
- x' Q; |5 O8 d9 X+ j# Ltowards the end of 2006.
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While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of! J# j7 w: m& T+ W u2 [, x$ x4 T, Z8 S
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
# O3 ^5 e* [: o& g& g7 Uto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse: M) ~- F$ h/ _, S7 g6 p
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
- {. S- J' Q9 Z1 P1 |foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
F3 I" s% O g6 Y6 N. z6 Ppressure on tight inventory levels.
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; M5 o# e* F2 d6 N+ ?; D* ` Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
& o3 k" u: }: x: ?/ g* X Mfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
; l- K& O2 z+ i. g2 a v5 zinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
9 {% ~8 n3 ^# z, l" Twhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching. S, {5 `4 }' O0 c0 i: _
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
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<<" b9 z9 m4 k$ ?; ~& W$ H4 |, G: U
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006# E, G* Q& z% v/ x: l, b
7 T! X$ m6 I+ V% h y$ p
-------------------------------------------------------------------------' n7 C! r2 U5 N' p* I0 L8 ]. w
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey5 }1 B* ?7 N8 k- W; O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
j: E% w9 K: n2 [' Q; A 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q37 t/ q5 n5 ~0 q8 x
Market Average Average % Change Average Average
) s$ H y( P# [2 x -------------------------------------------------------------------------6 K# X( w9 s# J1 h$ e3 p' t4 o Z
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,0007 K+ z: C# W8 r- s. I6 {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* l2 F, i+ V8 }' v Z" M Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,0009 [4 O* N7 }6 ?3 z5 e) ~
-------------------------------------------------------------------------% j, N2 J3 I1 X9 N2 l0 S
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
1 n+ k7 Q. y" D& M5 L -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* C. m8 c+ p4 }; C) d1 N3 K4 H Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
9 m/ g& E5 D j) u -------------------------------------------------------------------------% Z' \4 v3 A) \4 o& m6 n
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,3338 i1 P* l' G% B
-------------------------------------------------------------------------3 q& ]9 t4 Y+ p3 x: m% S* l" a
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
8 W- L& H2 Q! b1 M -------------------------------------------------------------------------
( ?! T( }! x" e7 ?; Q& e0 F7 u Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,1856 I) Z0 [# P* S3 {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 c/ x5 u9 p1 h0 M9 s2 @" ] Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
4 f' k) ~/ n% c/ Y- Q* T -------------------------------------------------------------------------6 E3 U9 Q" l1 _1 w4 Y( x
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
& B X7 w. c6 `% `. \7 f% h -------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 {, G( X* k% j" @9 W9 D4 X+ A3 d Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707! o/ V; m, T' F4 q, v
-------------------------------------------------------------------------4 G8 ?! ~6 c0 q A- _1 q, {
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500% f2 s' ^' i( k4 u
-------------------------------------------------------------------------3 w" R, p: l7 s3 s2 W5 X+ q
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
5 B4 _! V2 a$ t& O* J1 J -------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ W5 B+ T8 O! V+ L Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
, D9 p7 O6 t* T# K3 T# m, h$ } -------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 |/ ~& ]+ u, F5 S$ |1 m! P Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,5004 {% @; p- d6 i2 n- v j6 R
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
# l4 x5 R' u" ?) |% E' Y Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
, z- Z) d) l* E. W, ^ -------------------------------------------------------------------------% X+ ]5 b# L1 N$ i
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860& `! `1 F% m- R& F$ k% v1 _
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* |: r( [6 X! ?. v7 s2 _8 U+ s! S
% \" e5 p* k/ x0 T5 z& o -------------------------------------------------------------* R' T( |- E; ^7 E
Standard Condominium0 X$ l; K4 V: {3 K, Z- x2 W7 ?
-------------------------------------------------------------
( J) J/ t6 b, s 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo6 r& ?5 b0 `0 a. U, ^& T& }
Market % Change Average Average % Change
! G* Y& F' ?, C3 r1 u -------------------------------------------------------------
' B& W5 ]" z5 w& j5 ? Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
: G9 y% z g2 E8 S, }8 B ------------------------------------------------------------- \2 f3 t, `! W! \! o
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
& n& o1 O3 c x0 P6 O4 T -------------------------------------------------------------
9 [1 f9 F: N* S( B Moncton 4.9% - - N/A9 E: [% M1 z* C8 M5 Q6 W0 x3 I
-------------------------------------------------------------9 }% R/ g: O7 ~
Saint John N/A - - N/A
# O Y) X/ i# v2 t1 R3 z -------------------------------------------------------------, G) T h" ]& C% m; ^# |
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
) r7 R. E! O" W; M* W -------------------------------------------------------------
; W, t+ g5 e6 F" ^2 i Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
2 i9 C s# |7 } -------------------------------------------------------------
, r: P4 K4 n/ n Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
+ r# a$ d) G2 Q: t -------------------------------------------------------------) v1 T6 j8 O9 ^+ I) S1 c8 d% m
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%* i9 b* C. ?; n: a
-------------------------------------------------------------
/ y# j+ ?- f0 p" l% G' g& l Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
( D! \9 ]! \9 U$ n! C7 b3 F4 l -------------------------------------------------------------
$ P2 Q6 _ u6 Q: G2 N# w Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
' U; N+ @, G |3 n/ I -------------------------------------------------------------8 i' x7 e. ~; O8 _- I. ?! M& H
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%- P5 r3 W2 |) G, O- z0 s
-------------------------------------------------------------
6 n# r9 q" F n( i3 ^ Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
8 b0 P& G% \0 e3 Z -------------------------------------------------------------
8 x" L/ `" e! y" e5 ^# W0 U Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
2 j+ _- x+ ^( v% O) h% H2 k -------------------------------------------------------------
! E$ q) B+ y" X! R Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%7 c# e5 W+ @" t
-------------------------------------------------------------
d1 U' Y: `4 m8 h$ m Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
5 t( G# Q ]( R" x( f" q1 ^& f7 R -------------------------------------------------------------
: U; M; D+ B) k' `& G$ ] National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
# D+ R! }* A7 I" N! K4 o -------------------------------------------------------------
: C" t8 V: ^3 z& }$ P- z6 z/ F9 [ >>' E2 ?) F* W6 E2 v4 Q6 E, N' K
6 h; Q4 u" _5 | Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
" X: p" l& U; k: Jin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint9 a6 _. W+ t) U2 h
John and Victoria.
( h4 y( O9 n" e& X! t9 p2 n6 U& ^3 G
' [9 m* t( o$ P, g+ G' V4 [ The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
# k% ^+ m4 ]4 t8 A+ f. a- s% rcomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of% Y0 o: C h- W/ F+ `2 c
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
~) h7 ]# `; s$ H. g1 jreferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
5 J7 J: Q. }. M9 \trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
& c6 }5 A3 y& R; M- x. }: c6 Kacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
, `8 \1 W5 `6 f; Gavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current5 Z! @7 k( C- n: C+ V4 T
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
0 W! E0 g- S& {4 n; e5 Y7 H+ wversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
0 L. }5 M- I8 D( C, |9 aNovember 15, 2006.
2 c* i5 ^; U; j% i4 z Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of( d+ \" L9 B# ]5 D3 x* p
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge' q& n& n5 z$ r8 d
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
7 D' Y6 q' M8 h- W# l& cavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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