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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
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- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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, A- |9 S6 e6 y/ o2 b9 M# X TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
" C7 ^# r4 A* w' s% M! {exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third2 ^" \ L' e S' j! w L1 `
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
) w! O) Q. R( w- P& _in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
0 p9 ?7 A" O3 ?price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
. t1 N" _" Q+ z" tmore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,3 ^! { [7 `2 A8 [. v5 ]* q% q( V
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal8 {2 ?0 b, S3 k. L$ Z, \2 v
LePage Real Estate Services.
1 s( j) p; w, [$ N* q6 @& _! [; H, ^6 S3 i% n1 b5 W% M
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters2 | _5 z' M% @6 [; H
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
8 M% H, X5 `0 @! J3 `$ S9 Yconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and$ M' _: h/ g; e% I
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
) V' I: B$ P% I. `residential real estate sector.
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Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation' t$ c. @+ D9 V9 j& [
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
, p' R: T/ m6 ]year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,5620 u" F! A1 ^ Q3 D. A- Q
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
+ t V1 X! c _& g# T z0 }(+13.2%).) {1 D, O$ ~ P! U; N+ n" Y
# f* m! Z, \& O0 C* E "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth3 E5 t9 r: Z4 |
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the4 z& j8 P( j( ~( N) k. h4 c
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are/ h9 m3 V( U8 |, v1 ]" _% f
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,, t6 R. E" C; V6 N* V4 y
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.6 G' D- H3 k) Q) A8 l
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
0 j& \) g! f e/ i' b. W. p. iwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
. o: y; Y( o) n0 M; M( Y. abalanced market."
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Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
) v* c" }% w* E1 k, Mconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift; D3 f5 o- B! ^
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued) T) C- z: M1 n+ ?+ @4 l* A
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core5 N$ e6 i, n- @9 q4 u6 w% ^2 `
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
1 C1 ?' ]1 s; u+ |* n) ^8 V0 c% U4 lmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
2 O+ `+ N" H9 P: y( C6 zbreaking price appreciations.5 t- g' c% D- w& C: b
& V+ }' ?) M' w6 W5 n" c# T Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding- f* u: i3 ^! i. @ o% x( @8 h. Y& X) f
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
* [; G) k7 K0 E* S3 ~3 Glargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed." [3 ` h% _+ h( J$ K8 m3 ~, {6 ?
8 @- S# `" G) _' G) B% y In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid3 F% r( g' x+ L/ @# j" ~7 `
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
" g7 E1 F G& Kconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off* h0 `- Y7 }$ ~8 X) F9 ~% k" v
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.! F$ Y* C6 l' {# z
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers. W$ t$ Y2 J% H
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of" @* ]9 q$ B6 U9 r. x5 D# O+ H
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
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While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
; a# }/ J# G! u+ j$ Kmarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and' b; s( M" p; K
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada. x3 f) h2 ~1 Z2 a& k
are markedly different than those found in the United States./ n U. E$ |0 ?+ l- D
9 k, a8 n4 q$ b: M. [! h5 { Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
# c" e2 x( z. V H0 v2 }* tAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
* l; d& _. n) e, }: {* K: u7 tfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
4 _9 h& P' C& Prelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general5 f' h1 t) b8 Y" q- O6 ]- ]+ ^5 Y
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
. k3 s% j4 }1 k) q# cdownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
W F4 b* r) \+ J/ p, Waggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
4 k! m+ J) n# U/ tmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."4 }& ]/ F" L5 E4 [$ N0 G/ O
; L' z/ m1 e5 ]' g- c, f) @ <<
$ z1 g+ M0 O' n- D1 S REGIONAL SUMMARIES) B Z2 ~1 Y" o" b; J4 f. c# n' T
>>
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2 J: S" J& f" U! ~ Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in1 \9 h$ P3 ]7 V; |( f8 U
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate$ b, Z: P% C2 X4 I! i* u$ \
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
" Y" B0 d3 }2 v+ N xlooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
/ _3 O5 O8 j+ `4 h' ^1 Frenovations.& v* z2 r/ u, W& T+ e- c
. v5 H3 R# P F0 r# E2 u The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
6 D+ P% d+ l: K8 K/ oincrease in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation2 w% w0 y- w0 |: v: A$ w6 z" W" E# |: E
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
4 L2 _# e9 ?! d0 m. F! QSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.( M# h+ g9 ?" P% n+ ?
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The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
; r8 a. G, m9 e5 d) L0 Qslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
+ a6 m3 y7 g3 fquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
& T1 x' h3 z1 Q: {- F600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores& E$ j0 W [4 y
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
4 N9 g) g6 B0 y4 a2 C0 v" _! J+ Q- @and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
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1 {6 c, W" p2 H5 M; g6 ^ In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
9 L! X4 f* C% C$ Qconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their8 V9 T1 ?8 n$ [
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
A5 K8 G' M+ S/ T; C* j. wwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
B4 u: A# c' }6 F! xdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
, @1 Z! ?* N4 w! _5 V, \$ Fbuyers with more options when looking for a home.
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Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
' Y4 h0 \$ f& l; E* h5 xamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
R0 K. u; J. f& t4 cpriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
9 C, }& ^9 \/ ]2 t: F6 yas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
6 v% B$ e- T2 p. C) F* ?few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.3 V7 k4 t3 g0 V' ]7 `# m
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
- F" ^" t; b" |2 Q5 h3 I/ _( ]prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
6 I! f7 p3 v% p- plevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting( H+ [4 O6 f$ [
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
$ M. t" [% q; H6 Wwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the6 ^, |: A% o7 U5 Y8 J$ z
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
) B% g- f1 O Smaking a purchase.7 b/ r* ], Z3 v) I
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Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing7 z( S; r8 K, f; B/ g1 J o% @: M
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong1 `8 O) z% }# A9 `" s9 j+ ?3 N
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
V# S1 d" K1 fcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
, t- U t9 U- x8 _& hattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
& g( M8 F5 z# J- u, n1 Ramenities.
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The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
1 {* \) W6 B% Q+ X+ Ithroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
7 u: F" h+ c0 g/ P* q# R- Jacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has/ g7 u2 V. F$ ^/ Q5 k$ ~
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been4 X* [4 p, \2 g, q, \5 h6 P( J7 C
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle" `& _% W" t9 H2 W# D# a: M
residence, rather than for investment.
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9 ]9 X, }8 T, G$ V The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as" w1 G, ?" k( H) M
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
. g, }' X1 u7 d \ c- [5 \% rin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
7 h) ~" k/ M; X5 Z5 r$ {confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization7 R5 h, r$ p! A2 z8 [# Y
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
6 Q) n4 P% Z$ T+ m. v! nthe market.
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& o% w) J0 ^* i7 W# k }% ? In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through' A9 v- [0 G* V
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In" w: |/ j% a' x' n2 X3 \
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
3 v E1 T# \, M* T! u. ]months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
8 c9 F# ~1 l0 a$ ?to the shortage of available inventory.( D H# c1 r. h
( O: R+ E& N; i1 I' E) ~# ]& \6 E Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
2 G$ ~0 O" W% x2 x$ G5 z# l6 a* umomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
8 w# A4 k# z- K3 [vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses4 \& y' K+ p( M' e. G0 Y6 Q, ~
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
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Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
5 ^0 B8 }5 F, a' d8 xin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
( N9 [$ s* p8 I7 g( \) Hunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
! }: U/ W! k. X0 s. M" ypressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
1 I9 q% r' @# l" G4 n9 T$ Cprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer& ~# Q2 T9 E; p/ I, R4 q) e
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
! r% c+ @4 `! o, O( {buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
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Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter4 B8 y2 p: P: h0 @' j
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
; g1 D" q" {6 @1 Q; s5 P0 Z0 ~remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
: o6 C% Z# P$ d4 `4 A$ gmaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
$ m6 a" L/ Q3 T" \increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve) x3 ^5 @, k% m: i, L) ^
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly3 s: Y7 n2 _! `2 l1 b. N; `& N3 O
towards the end of 2006. & O7 E4 B( n/ l, x% |
% ` q8 m8 s U2 j1 lWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of" T8 U. B0 I* [$ H# e# {9 Q2 K
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
. o d8 J' ~- W: Yto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
3 ?# d1 ~4 U" s4 N) S4 J( }% A) j0 egroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
$ G0 ]0 T! b- x c( P5 M4 vforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
v6 ?* V" I3 f* Ypressure on tight inventory levels.
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Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic3 o: p" y z1 X8 n
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
& Q s) p! M: D- y5 yinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;; o) {" @! a6 V' |0 D* V4 r1 N# s
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching" N) w/ n* o* Y4 X% Y% a M
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
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5 R2 m1 R2 \% D+ O <<1 i+ w- d+ v; d
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006 p* X; Y% \- v S
. q: t; s* u% s5 N4 G/ {" U! H0 ]- a
------------------------------------------------------------------------- L( U7 U# _" O# \
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey2 D. `! | r+ }3 o6 Y" D: M* C
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- s: S7 E/ d7 Y0 ]* p& a- [ 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q39 L, Q1 @* q# {) w
Market Average Average % Change Average Average* M7 E+ e1 g5 L$ \+ `% |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------2 s6 }4 L7 s4 C: f# F/ U
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
* M. E2 |) x& |3 j -------------------------------------------------------------------------" ]3 z# o" f5 k7 X. S% U8 ~, e
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
% o$ _2 |- B. |2 b3 a -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 Y$ [) G$ h& l7 s6 A, }. F
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
4 p8 F- U5 u, g0 n) e9 H -------------------------------------------------------------------------( ? L d9 ]+ Q! f) j( i
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -3 A! g! M' d; S4 `9 }$ P6 X( A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
e, |4 D( O, _: c3 O9 y St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
6 @# `7 ~2 |, ]4 h1 Y5 I -------------------------------------------------------------------------4 t" H& G A0 o: ~; O4 R
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583; n6 a# a' j# k
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 h9 f# d3 U' M" O Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,1855 Z6 {( [7 R; ]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ {0 s2 ~% G" ^7 J; ], I; n Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250- z$ e! V b1 T% e1 \( c$ f% k
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
. s) W8 S5 j6 {9 g* k2 @5 U2 { Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
& `7 y" p, W- M -------------------------------------------------------------------------! \% [# `" W' E
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707. C. N: _# P) D% Z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------/ T6 }) h2 l& p& G# z$ b& U( h
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,5009 ?1 c$ y$ v+ l4 i8 g- y7 W6 O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 U7 y8 K. C9 X' O6 P Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
" Z/ o' D1 `4 L& `$ y8 J -------------------------------------------------------------------------% b% ^2 S& j% h+ {- ?2 }/ q
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714' S1 n* l% w; b# h% T8 x1 _
-------------------------------------------------------------------------2 I; s# B: R: `3 G+ r9 J
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500" ^" M2 B: J% U: r$ x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ q# k9 Z/ f1 R Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,0005 x- x# W5 T- w# I$ i( R( x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------9 t' ?2 k; y/ y) U1 j! R E
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860/ {+ _$ D+ J) t2 M9 a5 Q* N" U
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- |9 \5 d7 Y- z! ~6 }2 d4 l- G9 B$ k/ U1 b/ ~4 G0 a
-------------------------------------------------------------
5 x5 o& l: x) X7 Z" @/ Y' E: x Standard Condominium
" H( D2 F# m$ `$ |2 r: k -------------------------------------------------------------
3 @+ T/ ^7 r7 E' }; t1 i) [. P7 ]6 F/ r 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
6 g+ f1 N1 R& U Market % Change Average Average % Change( n6 v5 h* d$ v1 h8 b( m2 r
-------------------------------------------------------------% r' B- b8 c$ a' E6 H
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
# ]) P. F, z4 W7 {, a. b7 M5 B& X. N -------------------------------------------------------------
G8 T8 Y; X0 }. n Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%4 g4 Q3 E5 P9 d4 E! R
-------------------------------------------------------------6 R: n4 r* m0 Q6 ?6 h: C, f
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
# [, y3 z7 X$ ^) z! z -------------------------------------------------------------
9 f4 r _6 M0 v5 W8 F( } h Saint John N/A - - N/A' }( H! M) Y8 s
-------------------------------------------------------------
/ Q- e3 \5 L( A5 l* a St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
2 t6 N; ^: _$ Y6 X5 K5 n4 ~ -------------------------------------------------------------0 d; V& s% _. K8 e* {# V: x
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
0 J+ \3 e1 `3 |3 g+ w* i* a -------------------------------------------------------------
5 l) k# e! m$ v' b" D+ ^) s8 X Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%- D3 J) v! C7 t( |( }) {
-------------------------------------------------------------( r% t& C9 o1 [( P4 P7 _
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
2 ?+ I" J6 V6 J0 G+ \; K -------------------------------------------------------------
. i, D3 W H A6 | U: \ Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
5 ^& R+ d( P% m6 y* v1 F- x' p -------------------------------------------------------------
. ~" x7 V. c: K+ M Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
" E) e/ A, _ Y& T6 q/ A -------------------------------------------------------------
; E0 y9 j3 H0 n( A0 q9 s2 l1 d) d Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%# d1 n+ }- V7 Q
-------------------------------------------------------------& U1 g3 K' K9 A0 V/ G: i& z
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%5 P% j3 F; r+ q) S) b, C
-------------------------------------------------------------# u" t. [# Y g) [2 x3 y0 R
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%9 I* u& J: G1 d3 Y9 |6 H' ]# \
-------------------------------------------------------------5 h; B: ~5 |6 Q9 E% }$ C5 t
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%2 s( \( }3 x, ]% }) H7 Z
-------------------------------------------------------------: c4 ^; A$ _0 F) x
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
" R0 @8 v: s f# O7 L2 @ -------------------------------------------------------------
' `! `* P( u& O: z1 i National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
! z0 u N4 Z# s -------------------------------------------------------------
/ E+ ]- {6 Y/ b# l: X >> f) f3 {8 H4 z9 e! k) _
3 V) c5 ~) a L# i; A/ q$ C0 n V$ b Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
! @1 E! W. t$ `8 b8 K" kin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint& w# x, R& P: C: Z6 v
John and Victoria.
9 Y3 E5 P8 i' O. @; f. o$ P; w- J
1 D. @; T. o8 d% L/ g The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most$ Q% X: Y- @* n' d7 w3 }
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
' ?8 J5 L8 U1 y, Dhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
7 f# a, A5 B7 o+ A8 f( p2 ireferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
( {& _: G8 A* Mtrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
$ R3 {+ q0 V6 X2 h, R+ yacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is$ B+ v$ L: ]6 J# d1 k
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
9 q4 B! y/ _1 e- h6 Ffigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable4 k# H( n9 G! b$ c+ I
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on/ Z' W1 P$ a1 N" k- w
November 15, 2006.
4 _. _, O. j6 f; I7 p8 F% c Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of7 ]0 ^) |8 s' D4 f4 F2 \) o
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge2 ^6 a# P2 }. U; w" A% t9 U. ^) ]
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
0 C, X. Y" W* \- x3 P( S8 Eavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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