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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
, L5 N# b+ d/ |' R( \- D- ?: a) [+ b; x+ ?2 f! _" C/ ~3 N: T# b
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market3 y* s8 s1 s8 G8 h. F! v
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third+ |: u; s f0 L5 g* W
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
5 I6 e( ?* |+ V- H/ i A win the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit7 u& I* F( S2 h5 l% K7 [
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
4 v3 t' a0 q8 m5 o- umore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
* b; g- M4 |. G" F5 i4 s" TQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal& k3 L# J, Z9 ~3 o' {, O/ t: @
LePage Real Estate Services.
) t0 D3 U6 E1 @& ^8 T
5 ^7 p3 ]) {" N3 S% l Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
8 ?& f$ \' h. E. i9 Q# uare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic8 u- g) w6 K0 h) L/ Z
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and8 c; T6 J* R2 l; W
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
5 c8 d4 o7 D' X4 ?5 |residential real estate sector.
% B6 C' u+ N. @! T' M+ M, f
6 Q$ R5 [5 ^" A0 C3 f Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation$ R! n7 y! e( l% o- M5 G: P
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)2 u2 B+ H! ?. E, }" r% U
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562+ X6 e- a3 L+ [, G% t
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
# Z! Q: w/ i" s(+13.2%).5 h; z3 O9 Z/ S5 V' q6 d
' K2 n2 ?4 j1 G. t1 P$ Y8 Z
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
( p7 k3 ]% D5 @during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the6 p( r' ~: ^ d4 }- i$ f
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
) R, j$ j6 D" L# Q* W; spoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
. c- K1 s; W9 M i* @ `president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.2 l7 d# r# s7 B4 M
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We2 Z: D% T+ e# n7 G! n. ?8 ]6 k1 _$ z
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy! G4 A! y# `5 f8 H, ^
balanced market."1 _, @6 ?4 w# C0 O. E. f
) P% z' z6 K! U7 g: o
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
8 M# P! _1 S* U1 [+ M7 Pconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
* u% y: ^' o, O5 Z* U! |to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued9 a, }$ Z/ q, ~8 D
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core8 F$ d( X9 q) s8 W: m
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
0 d* _! l+ s/ h9 m$ V; `manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record& s7 e# w8 `( y X# n. u
breaking price appreciations.4 |$ z1 X+ f S* D( k! x
/ e& S# A" e5 \) w. x2 v( q% A Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
* d* F9 o/ p8 a! l5 {' m2 d+ yeconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the5 _7 X# f L6 A6 v7 ~: F: f, a
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
2 J# \* {2 a$ u# @0 n+ x& i0 `5 `6 Y4 d) b) c* I
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid" } [% b& b- f) q
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
' \8 M& i) h% m* V+ e- Z& J1 J! n9 f Sconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off2 t9 P# F& @& J2 ?- U$ e
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.8 { l; T9 D- G4 W* B
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
; ]( G/ b) y% T2 sgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
- K, ~- _& [- J- U: V/ l7 b3 u! Xprice appreciation when compared with 2005.
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While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing$ P; {- w c0 x% ] ?
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
& O5 n& ]7 G$ b! n) zfinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
# C- e. m; n! kare markedly different than those found in the United States.
7 y- T. q5 f2 M
* _& b+ Y( i7 N% y9 B$ \1 @( l$ p Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the0 m* O: N4 g& Y9 f
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's( r4 c" M# W6 ^5 {7 I
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the" T. l; b9 u; c( D; {
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general- G5 ? V7 G# a0 N, p! w" f) |, P$ o% f
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the w$ {3 @; d* C# I) V. P
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and @) `5 b0 ~# }& B
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization/ V7 Q- V$ [* i8 j
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
% y% z6 [- o! V8 {
3 E$ [& K M- @) j7 J. e; V% k <<
2 S) p. n$ q; J0 V+ K2 X) K/ Z7 z" x REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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$ ~9 m5 O% E' E+ x: p5 V) U- n
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in. W: T6 j- R, `) q
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
; b& T7 p4 O4 K* Hof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
. l9 h0 \, J# glooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of2 K- m2 C8 c9 P: h1 [; U6 n6 T
renovations.
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The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight5 d3 [9 U; q! D/ F" z+ i
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation& M E3 H a$ R5 \+ N
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and, k f# @7 G. O
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.1 Z H: E. E F2 a6 [
% k; c" s! @$ b0 K The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer0 F9 v9 |1 {) x% s+ a9 h- e
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
! F$ M2 ?7 {% T$ r% H! D7 N' Yquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new+ T0 d6 T4 P7 H9 J. u$ i
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores5 Q$ C) u$ g2 B
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes3 K( Z; M7 Q* P" h; X
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
6 G& I# `( z( ?; y& T; a2 X! \4 m- w {" l
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced* I8 P# W5 |6 O
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their( l) }' j5 @1 R
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
! F# W% K$ M+ L- N* \was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
; \% J# ^ K& ^2 z/ @. Y% y! K$ V4 ^dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing( ^1 I$ o' }4 U4 C) W- E' P$ h
buyers with more options when looking for a home.+ g( X; A0 ]* r" \8 |/ }
# |; o& B& U0 ]/ x1 J7 Z Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly/ e1 H+ n: n3 Q! a
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
0 f7 A! L- W; J5 t& ?% o$ epriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
/ c3 x$ f9 `& Tas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
% ^. I7 l2 s$ o3 G. \few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
1 [+ d) J/ y! ?/ D% o& v4 U m
9 F% w8 |: [' `2 v* S Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
* o" B0 M1 ?, @" R$ y% G# hprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
0 @+ L. M9 v7 N9 B4 xlevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
4 s" I T. r) d* A6 V" gfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
. ]/ L# j9 f, J; g8 vwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
( d9 D# C+ G, h8 V% @8 W1 Fpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
+ S* C8 F. y# c1 g5 Ymaking a purchase.
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k$ C& l6 s0 E! x9 [8 |( u0 O Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing$ q/ R `/ H7 c) R' \
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong% P3 I- ]. j7 P
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
! o) Q( K6 t$ v( h# n; c5 l/ Qcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting+ b3 ]* K% h. i4 Q! w' K! L4 y& s' m
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown. ~! Y# y* f$ o; K
amenities. @: S4 b+ T$ [( H( O9 v7 a
7 t' D ]& O3 M' G. \$ R3 c; f p
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels, Q I, Z! J) O7 _
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand2 z: m2 S6 l( G( N
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
L U1 }% t$ |7 `+ Ocontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
& t: ?! L( Y/ v! idriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle, F& B* u+ I2 a f
residence, rather than for investment.* A3 S9 A5 U) Y8 y! C
8 G; R J# k$ X+ e The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as5 [5 R% z$ m. r* m- _. n8 {
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
9 k8 [; p/ D% B( g' v( E6 j) iin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer0 y" |0 J" Y! h" p% O: ?* `
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization8 J. ]2 B! z8 }+ N1 U) R5 T
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter1 Q: J g7 U9 T5 K3 Y8 g
the market. \7 C6 z s; D9 f% T! {! H
; y# C; z* G4 O
In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
! T$ q) F1 z m& ] |: \July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In- G8 N( V k, d
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
% b5 d- j; o m- H5 F4 amonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
3 w) l6 M I6 N. x: v* yto the shortage of available inventory.
4 i8 _ d$ E: @. c
4 C- a, l/ x& A( ~' y$ Z Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
L; A; N8 ~& d" y, ]2 q: mmomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
' V" U% \) Z+ avibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
2 ^, x7 s- B' }struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.) E$ w( [! U4 t3 a( i& q
) i7 e5 v* B1 S2 l0 a' _
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
! S/ C+ i# _' U" R. s( i! kin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
5 J, h5 [- @, d" x) M. P7 k7 T3 funemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that* i8 Q$ S$ E5 y' J
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring2 U' Y# ~4 z: M0 W
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer5 v9 N( G2 C8 V/ e3 N6 w
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
" W6 K7 c: M) w6 q6 ]4 Z/ J" ?( kbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.6 E+ o6 E. p0 ^) K
' ?# ]( z. ]- g4 ^& T- u! I: X4 L
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter! G' y9 B5 t+ }, s) v! S1 j4 y
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton3 B1 S. i z# ~
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,$ J5 A$ D2 D$ j( @! } M2 x
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices, b! W) e% I8 s( o* V4 t" M1 R# T
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve3 p7 W$ b# f& [8 N5 @/ x3 b
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
7 `# i( d$ V \) z9 T; c4 ftowards the end of 2006. ( y. w6 N$ X$ I6 O
5 C9 [% Z7 F3 w5 ~$ h- @
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of( i* q9 z- j7 w, m/ C' \7 a6 W/ Z
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable4 B% F% w5 o' }2 r! K
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
2 h/ Q& c: m4 Y: m3 igroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to! e# Z# h- h* M2 D. C8 ^* A3 z
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
8 M8 [1 o/ }- R0 D2 J2 C$ N( Ypressure on tight inventory levels.2 k$ w( j3 |! W1 P4 {
! {, U4 D4 G: m+ ? Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic; c: Y/ }4 E$ D6 ~4 V9 b
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people5 P/ k0 Y3 e( R8 z
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
( K1 c8 E% N! |! awhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching1 v7 C1 [1 [+ X6 @# ~# B
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
9 ?0 `: b0 w; s3 f+ O7 L( z1 \# b" s2 ?( V
<<
! p: }' B, e _4 }% o1 N$ w Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
9 |2 B, ?$ b2 B; M3 v, ^+ {: [1 L P7 m$ P( N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
, E; J6 `3 T0 V9 U% A4 a& B5 N Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey+ ]5 x; K! ?8 G7 n# ?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------( K$ [: Y; C$ X# k7 M- ~5 `
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
; J3 u# x1 e& W/ C- m2 b. C Market Average Average % Change Average Average
: |- N% N9 p; C -------------------------------------------------------------------------2 { K- ^$ j& i/ @
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
0 K* L8 d/ c' t* a# B -------------------------------------------------------------------------% n! G4 A3 n8 B* U( ?
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
7 O8 b$ t8 y5 t% r( z -------------------------------------------------------------------------4 A( F. X/ Z6 j; J
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,0005 p! F. b# c0 n. w/ ]# [$ I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 l2 P: a6 x3 D' X, J: J Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -6 o: S$ \% n3 X4 z) _* ?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------. |. Z5 A9 B8 e
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
7 e" n6 ^, d* j- _ -------------------------------------------------------------------------2 x4 p$ a5 [6 V& k8 } b
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,5830 _ s) S! G2 k5 e9 ^
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
! z! o; N, p/ K8 c+ N6 i Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
. _) U- w6 h/ G, A% [ -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 t5 z* E, I0 v$ f2 `' b& F
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
+ X2 p4 l( u8 X D# S -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# G) f6 E' z r" g6 g4 E2 U Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,7662 @) d. j. L( s6 @+ B
-------------------------------------------------------------------------; p0 R/ H3 M- P* C; g5 j
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
4 f: p X6 b0 M$ T; { -------------------------------------------------------------------------; ^# @9 V: M9 j, \* f
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
& x- s' l# b# |" d4 a( \ -------------------------------------------------------------------------+ k, [0 ]3 B8 }; m, @: |
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,3899 l! t. R! N( t* ?) g3 c1 C
-------------------------------------------------------------------------; e1 J7 b1 p! c# ]0 t- }1 _1 n
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,7149 H5 g: o+ G2 _( m: k2 Z0 O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------. {; [/ T) Q D& l
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
4 Y) v3 d# j$ S \& [% s -------------------------------------------------------------------------8 ]; E2 G- V0 F" w% ?
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
% A6 n1 B- d) ]$ `3 _* i+ t -------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Q+ M+ ~6 R' @! K* o National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860+ u/ ^% B: o! b9 W' V# h2 o" X: ^
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
; X0 ]! W- R4 E- _ ]5 z* q
4 t6 N+ R$ q- |; l -------------------------------------------------------------
9 Q9 H# i" {. h* A* S% x Standard Condominium
( @4 P! s* M+ t. x; t% D# ^ -------------------------------------------------------------5 n+ |4 K3 U: i; k
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo- R4 U( `; a& ^) Z G, T! E
Market % Change Average Average % Change$ E+ P% h4 C" [+ y# u9 p! E
-------------------------------------------------------------0 ^$ k; r, G& d$ a
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
7 @* A/ \4 @7 ?) N9 h$ b v! s4 N -------------------------------------------------------------
- o5 t2 F) V' B* ^7 ] Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
; N' h8 @; N8 ~6 ~9 {0 S4 I -------------------------------------------------------------
$ ?3 ?5 v5 c4 I, S. c6 v4 c Moncton 4.9% - - N/A8 O- Z8 B; J+ b5 u O3 \ [
-------------------------------------------------------------5 l! K, {% [ C1 |8 P- r a8 j
Saint John N/A - - N/A' E$ u, C5 A$ W( S! H
-------------------------------------------------------------( O$ y8 w& P' x n6 U4 ?
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
! t4 B; q1 H% p4 ^+ m4 ~; ? -------------------------------------------------------------% X5 f# g' {- D% a, n- r% V. t H( j
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%6 y3 c0 w9 |9 X/ S q/ E1 H1 C( A
-------------------------------------------------------------
9 U/ b2 Y" {% z. Y& f Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%6 h) p4 y3 ]9 v# e, P$ p3 @# I" i; N5 c
-------------------------------------------------------------# @; T+ P! u( Y; Y5 h, u! p. Q) u7 l/ t
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
1 ?) ?# z4 m; w5 J( V% K9 ?2 f -------------------------------------------------------------
7 N: d1 P6 D) Y& D) i3 \ Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
) `, l+ {, o4 v -------------------------------------------------------------
/ A( v" B N; o( A! M7 P d Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
f. W. a% I: Y% Q; H- Q1 y" r -------------------------------------------------------------
2 \% M. c9 z9 G" J, I Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%* p6 |4 q( J5 U& J
-------------------------------------------------------------& H$ Z0 f% D$ X
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
- C4 E9 M( S- O5 A$ ^2 u C$ e' ~ ------------------------------------------------------------- t/ x& M8 d p% `% F5 E! C
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
+ d3 j2 K% P& h3 n" P" n3 D -------------------------------------------------------------
" V" O) `0 Y0 K% y2 ~ Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
9 t% r+ w9 n. e# ]2 e5 o -------------------------------------------------------------5 U% `' w/ T" |4 s2 _
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
# E9 D1 Z0 P3 ^5 u -------------------------------------------------------------. s' C$ Q& u: p8 i/ W0 |5 U
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%* B$ ^& K9 D3 u4 s; K
-------------------------------------------------------------
$ i/ ^' }" Y; ]' K >>$ \1 j5 a* X! V* }! e; j
, q0 U) l8 _# k( c+ G Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined' m) w% `/ g& l6 I/ t
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
2 _7 H/ }9 X5 ?' k# ^John and Victoria." r$ v7 }) z0 Q5 M, X: T, l# d
8 F( w$ h* X- b$ c- A( y The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most' {( v) O+ m. }& `
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
, g& A5 }9 E5 e5 `6 p9 `$ Jhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
6 v/ m( f% @2 |3 I4 j, ?references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price9 H. J+ H) u0 O& W! S
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities1 P! |. X( [* G
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is! |6 W% B" g' m3 J6 T; ^2 s* r
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
$ [% z2 E! D* B, U4 Qfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
7 D; k* a" f1 S& e! j' o$ c4 h. ~version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on) c t- B" i2 O5 K
November 15, 2006.) k5 n' C2 \) h6 B2 a2 O
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
s7 a6 D$ g$ Sfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge$ N, q! p7 o4 c, u9 b( _
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is/ X9 }1 ~' v+ O9 M5 x
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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