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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
+ X0 c9 G' [$ g R( i! x0 f9 f4 f( O3 }
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -% p8 g! h9 o/ ]( C0 }' t
1 M. o! X5 q/ p: x7 Q) u6 `
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market) B2 d/ N8 z& A) o4 U
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third+ W. @$ G3 `+ C, K" z
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic6 e: M8 G' I7 W' \5 z/ p1 [6 S
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
, Y9 H( V; Y; Xprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
) ~( h z- v2 a7 [more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
g9 L `9 e- v8 S8 t' }6 w, D$ pQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal8 o1 V! h! S- K0 D$ a; a+ R
LePage Real Estate Services.2 l% m" ^2 ?' \# h8 |( g: y9 k
9 y+ }% i1 l7 u u! ^ Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
& d9 v8 J. B% yare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
' F/ ]" V* _& c: L1 {conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
7 i ?+ d9 ^5 _( S0 p1 jsound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
! s, k2 E( Q( b% R. T# Tresidential real estate sector.
% R. O) t3 h! U, z* `# t4 q
+ Q0 B9 T( m2 \6 ` Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation( y, ]6 s; v! Z) c7 e% u1 I
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
# ~7 x% m9 o& ]2 X5 ]9 Z+ E( c; pyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
& f% |$ L1 Q% l(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
( t/ [! N( J# s' b(+13.2%)." x& p! i6 A$ v
7 U: [$ k1 ?9 X z& g8 _# Z
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
# B/ O" h' U: b5 e. Lduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
7 ]1 Z/ z1 g. d- Lfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
8 X1 t7 s$ {4 J/ y0 Upoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,% t8 |; u! q) Q# P9 p9 ^& f
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.: }* h- @' c) U; x* C3 P8 J. W
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
; D, f% R) [$ X, }welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
% n. K+ \, x9 b9 j7 K: t% S, Vbalanced market."
+ w( ^+ [4 Y" X8 I* r7 W! X6 h0 n: t9 z6 P2 W* v3 [6 j
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
0 Y" J8 A% ^/ x6 mconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift/ _( t' B* n! E m3 w* _8 e
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued5 A/ P, _$ e$ a5 p
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core& W8 o3 ~' F- r% l
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
! ~1 S2 w# n+ N- e5 T3 }manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record* i. s; L9 z2 o
breaking price appreciations.
5 I# H" W- j( Y. E0 w- Y% u/ w) h) X) ?# k2 _7 C
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
; f7 t# V% h! i9 N2 Peconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
9 p! A: w: H' F& N2 S0 p1 ^largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed./ D# y6 ~8 {9 @% c5 r+ V% d5 t- w
7 s/ j- l- f$ c- l# X. z- P. N( T8 ]) ]0 [ In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid' ~: s4 g( y/ Q- [ Z
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
" b5 i. T) p, B, }) v hconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off, ]9 H, N- q% T( f, A) G
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
r7 V* Y3 z/ j6 S: SIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers4 A: v8 p/ {* j& P) i2 W
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
2 ^; ^ ]7 o# J0 oprice appreciation when compared with 2005.! s, s& C0 a( Z+ S8 [
: D3 w; i I* U3 B( p% |5 X' G While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing% \# J9 ?. l+ [! i
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
' {) B q4 }" l& pfinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
K3 q& t2 W# ]1 D$ i% Tare markedly different than those found in the United States.6 r3 W" N0 E: s8 s9 _0 T1 r; L8 H
& r+ t1 z/ v. T( }: W) S Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the3 r/ N) \; X6 \( R
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's* {: |- g& v( `& V/ H; ?6 m' B2 s
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
: {) j$ u3 D/ X9 Mrelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general9 m9 n0 A7 M+ s% }+ S: }) @
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the+ x( N2 L' P+ r, X, N* \
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and' p5 e8 m( p$ z# d
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization& e' N& B- B- v, W5 N5 d0 ?
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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<<
/ f2 U! G+ `, _; f0 b REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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1 R) v$ ~' {! c: F Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
- w$ q2 D( W% p0 }$ Y: |Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate" {% a* D3 P8 ], U
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
( b' { c/ J: o! _1 u, N7 L' C5 Elooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of8 i0 P9 Q' {* @6 ]
renovations.. [9 j. K% I6 F T; N# o
}% U& |1 |! i- w F7 \. N The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
- u+ u: p$ N/ l$ pincrease in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
3 |; ^- a L; p J1 p, p& s: `' _9 F1 ecompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and. R5 K' |, C, e, \* o
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.! B! _0 g7 S8 s( b
9 G% U$ E) E3 f6 t( R
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
2 b( _) n2 i6 [" L6 jslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
' O7 ^8 B7 c- n7 g+ r2 ]quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
# k6 Q7 n0 v" r600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores$ p) [0 r6 |/ x
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
* y' X* `7 _" h2 Cand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.7 [# ~0 w6 w% [$ E; j4 e
, V8 [# K$ W) X$ N' k: V2 B" y3 k In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
$ n+ v8 c# Y/ }" h. ~, p1 X5 ?/ Bconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
$ z6 b, d$ w3 q: m! M; J$ Zhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
) _2 }4 h' s+ C+ Xwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian9 V# W/ h' R; `
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
7 y I, _* y3 [, N, Abuyers with more options when looking for a home.
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, y- M: h, {& i! _* H Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
3 L6 _$ D! S& |& xamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes$ u- r% l) y S9 x3 L5 }. t
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,6 c" D8 ], T/ V1 ^# k2 R. w4 X
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
! z( j( h/ i$ \few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.. s4 G1 C1 I9 |6 D
2 b* U4 P) i9 |/ b1 h* K
Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house+ n6 J) ~. G. }$ A! \
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
% y) C/ |& P. Klevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting6 r+ \ h" W3 o* G* R6 R- Y
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
( J' C' ?! |( h% ?# R7 zwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
1 p, Q! I- J+ p. j/ Q- Tpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before! ?. u8 S0 t1 e8 G2 ^% J7 Y# I
making a purchase.
9 @, I3 n- b. c: h* i8 ?: |
C9 o$ G! T1 j2 u d9 j Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing" T+ v7 d9 U) n: \# }
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong1 W8 s9 D1 D/ N* E i7 D
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
# B8 s! t. n5 m2 c3 G9 S1 @centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
+ k' N3 a0 D" mattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown; f2 ^3 x* Z9 B
amenities.
% ]: i0 ]- f I/ |9 S( t! F4 K# v* @
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels8 D# A. F- v p z$ C0 U0 D5 S
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
1 g( z7 R. m" j$ p9 Y# D& xacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has8 m Z+ t, n8 z$ H# R: ~
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been9 J3 s0 q2 [- u1 p
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
1 g0 u- o# y! iresidence, rather than for investment.
5 S, y8 s; ?& |2 ^1 p2 R, l# i& t( ^. o' m2 {& h8 H4 M# }
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as7 Q+ m6 Y2 m0 x! `$ Z
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
2 b; g% c6 Z5 u: }1 H2 K s1 Win a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
7 f" ]- |5 u7 F4 g1 m$ Z. Uconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization6 c, `7 c! j, A, Z6 @
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter$ V# Q# _9 h& y! k5 U" r
the market.4 z0 J5 O3 R2 b8 |# ?+ U
$ f! `) M# L4 T/ B5 z4 g. q( E4 M# k
In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
7 e+ i2 l, P/ ^3 _6 n% J6 d- xJuly, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In: D8 _0 h; x! F2 ?; J; C6 E% R
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
+ z6 Q, Z7 y. I! [: `1 }" x. qmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
/ K- O) V8 [" f0 @2 f' f( x. x5 Yto the shortage of available inventory. b5 ]8 K" T; j+ ?6 J- l1 i* K+ g
7 J( D5 x, c8 m0 S$ e
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
# a3 c9 S( Y# M8 s$ p/ d. F9 j: ^7 fmomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
- q4 z+ J' `4 I9 K* n8 avibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
) g5 k- U% b6 ^2 H# ~struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.8 O5 l# m) X: o- @2 J q
( s1 I" Z3 S& D
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
3 i/ A0 v% S6 oin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
. O1 b) V) ~% c B% m; L* y Bunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that: u0 n3 x1 N% K
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
/ A6 j4 [* n c7 |8 lprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer3 d+ Y$ A3 O- x6 ]
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as! [% m2 k. e: q2 t4 A
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.! l- m# c4 V) z* i# g" R7 K h
1 R2 s1 s2 H6 I. F5 ]( A Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter0 a8 n+ R* J) E
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
! ^% W2 X! x1 d6 s+ y' h- sremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
4 r# E. W5 ^, a( R9 L1 Omaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
1 B. l( l$ q4 O' C( ~% h; P+ [+ Uincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve- m {% y$ N4 X4 d8 r. i& t/ O/ [
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
4 V9 n- I7 v8 wtowards the end of 2006. , J/ i7 x }+ ]$ _$ T/ A
9 d, {" Y; p* \( GWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
5 m" O0 o0 i& R- t5 @inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable6 K0 X v, ]9 w5 J0 P
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
0 O4 H5 a! ]+ R8 [group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
% j2 H4 U) Y. rforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added' @8 O! p- p$ o6 A4 g6 R
pressure on tight inventory levels./ ]7 {, X+ }% r$ Z; C+ |7 u+ y
3 [2 M4 J, K b/ g3 j
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic* Z: N6 t0 ^4 d# E
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people2 |3 ]7 P5 A( t ]# v
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
2 d0 U' g- ` [) f! Z" j( ~while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching" f$ A: g3 n) ~# J! S( T
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
! d0 W- I+ M( m- h! H4 f, W0 r4 f, S8 Y8 `3 M
<<
4 B( F E0 R2 v1 ?8 d Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
! n6 b1 {$ A6 Y/ R( g" z2 R# Z; ?) z' v' w0 u9 M4 E# N
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 q; X* [* Y/ @7 D: A. D Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey3 w& [7 x H# Q& Q
-------------------------------------------------------------------------: \ G* A1 C8 w4 Q! A6 k
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3) |( Q$ {6 J* [3 m. f( h
Market Average Average % Change Average Average
# a3 V" N8 }: ]0 S/ R -------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 U+ Q2 Y: d! j Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000( S( P1 ], f- C+ w0 D- D
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- v5 p6 L# d; u+ D' J: t0 v Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
' ]+ J% B0 K. {# ^! V6 L4 d( G8 y; g -------------------------------------------------------------------------
. K4 \8 r$ w) g/ c: r& y Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000) I9 e6 s: z+ Y2 A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------$ b: i! @0 W) x2 q3 _
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -( a8 b: t' b/ U' `( P- {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------7 l6 |/ Q5 Y. I% d# a! v
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
- {. J! P/ w9 O1 v& z. l -------------------------------------------------------------------------: j. s$ V8 |3 h$ L: i' Y
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,5835 t0 z/ n0 M& h. Y8 a! Y1 z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------8 U; u+ i3 ^1 I7 v- p* W
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
% U$ |4 s3 _4 `; A( W -------------------------------------------------------------------------: d# I" H6 K- k$ c3 R6 m- N4 ]4 K
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250" O" {$ y; }# S7 h V
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
" o- U/ ?* Y5 _9 I Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,7668 ]( l( v/ X% q1 r# Z3 G1 _& W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------# q3 v( C& _) X* }0 p7 x$ e6 c
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,7071 a6 `$ w; D9 f/ P2 D' n( J
-------------------------------------------------------------------------* U9 Q9 ?6 _. n( f
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,5006 `2 }7 J1 v; M* t
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 q4 @& ]$ O7 s* Z9 l/ o8 M/ ?+ Y$ l Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,3895 Z9 u6 w/ r0 W' ]6 G" o2 B" }
-------------------------------------------------------------------------" [/ }& D+ [% l0 t
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714" Z5 m! H( w# }% @0 u: X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------6 t$ ]/ m2 R `
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500, r: |2 V3 \* k' y: w
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
) ^* |3 M. w" @& x4 A4 Q' I* o Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,0007 u1 G# ]' v1 |. d2 q" J3 D
-------------------------------------------------------------------------3 f- C6 P8 y3 m
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860: q0 f1 D: u3 N/ ~) [
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ U) ?, I0 C) [5 C1 z) X/ U, p2 d* y; Z
-------------------------------------------------------------
+ M$ f. m) n# L6 k8 F4 T4 ^+ `7 f* c- d Standard Condominium
0 \+ U9 K5 T7 ` -------------------------------------------------------------
0 ]7 P2 R6 }6 |( [6 Z' C 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
2 M. ?7 Q _, s* } Market % Change Average Average % Change0 A' ]& c; {9 _% Y
-------------------------------------------------------------2 ~9 C0 G0 t! \/ z4 {
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
% ]3 [4 z' g4 I9 J% | -------------------------------------------------------------
) F& v% I2 c, u/ A! T% I7 E% b7 L Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%. V8 K6 J3 f. ]. [' x/ r
-------------------------------------------------------------
" j; j& ~" J3 X$ \* n5 B, t Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
# z! L% }' i8 h0 k -------------------------------------------------------------
( |8 q7 x/ B) J" p' n Saint John N/A - - N/A/ R0 j( L4 D! `5 d$ `& i
-------------------------------------------------------------6 i1 E+ i5 ^+ I/ |4 E8 {- _
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
Q+ g1 \8 q1 [( A3 @! O$ S- p -------------------------------------------------------------
* {) m' n2 A5 ~. c1 R, B Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%3 l8 q. o3 L7 T6 a8 N* H$ [
-------------------------------------------------------------
, g2 y0 g- g; S) u Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%* u$ V) E3 d4 S2 x
-------------------------------------------------------------
7 `% l7 s8 X( m Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
( H: l1 z! V3 C/ F1 ^ ------------------------------------------------------------- N! r! `& Z. F/ M" _* {/ ^, t
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%0 a [, m; d( q b0 [
-------------------------------------------------------------1 y ]; N+ X% p) I: f, h/ b+ V
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
& `: ~/ d8 }# N/ K -------------------------------------------------------------
; I. _# F: t* V" N9 R# M Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
$ \, |" s( q" u- z/ k% K -------------------------------------------------------------# t8 X; T7 }# t* A8 l6 q
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%, @* a6 G4 `7 |4 P! m
-------------------------------------------------------------, E7 v# W9 V" ~* q \
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%2 I4 L: c/ K; A6 Q% w; x5 X- }
-------------------------------------------------------------' f0 i" t! _9 v. P# ]$ v, w
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%3 j9 X9 x# S2 a! W! T
-------------------------------------------------------------9 a: D- R3 q9 T1 Z( ~# x' F
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%% J2 R" v- o8 t. `8 P( A
-------------------------------------------------------------
3 `* k' ^& {# x i# \0 o" d/ r National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%9 T: |9 X) K4 ]1 Z# {
-------------------------------------------------------------, S( [& B* x2 |* l; K# M2 r
>>
& G7 ~3 o6 o0 s3 w2 q% k, Q1 i$ Y5 }
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined, |4 o2 q3 Q( @7 O6 X
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint$ |& `- @+ i$ p+ z! Y
John and Victoria.
6 m j% u/ W" A: r6 R
. b" q& r2 Y' c2 s( h The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most# a, O0 {2 F( Z8 W
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
3 S* m8 t6 M, ^( H. r* s" ahousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
: y4 T k5 K6 Preferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
3 Q! G- Z' Y+ T3 W; b# R! C$ }trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities# Q) j+ @6 G* o" X( g/ l" q7 H" I
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is, z6 G* S- Q U( @& Z9 K6 V
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
2 r3 C8 n! @' M3 D/ ^: ifigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable% ]7 F# P% Y+ |" @. m, \
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
9 C v" Q7 x* x2 ~7 S+ YNovember 15, 2006.# {9 e Q+ O$ v. L8 {4 \9 Z( r) \
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
/ ^# Q8 x! a, l+ o, m5 _7 ufair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
4 Z( Y' j& v2 M% w9 o: Dprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is F) C5 Z8 F1 k( z
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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