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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
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! Y6 W# k4 b; P K% k5 r' c- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -1 f R- n# I- }, j
4 f4 o& M8 w4 y5 J! V2 T TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
4 W$ _/ i, w( A+ M7 ]% f- _* ?" ?exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third0 p3 y k8 @: y0 G3 @
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
# U# ?$ c2 P. a3 \: K2 V3 | \in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
0 X K" _& E, C8 u: i3 ?4 jprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and5 Q& m2 Z% O: I) n2 C
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,; S* @' H" Z: `* ?8 A
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
3 x7 F. q3 E# u' \; F" CLePage Real Estate Services.
" G3 g. ~& S' s9 a! B; c& d6 O z" q a+ \4 w% F. o( D
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters- F# E6 G3 Q" s- |" g# l
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
) a% f5 R# z2 b0 Aconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
4 F2 K6 w+ e0 q4 \sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the& R7 a' x6 W4 }1 }
residential real estate sector.
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Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation5 Z9 k: G% F' E+ s
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)6 h/ d" v, ?5 g- f
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
' [7 _5 R, W% G+ U(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,3805 q( P; m4 ]5 n
(+13.2%).7 X6 Q8 j1 r% H6 g1 p) l
7 a: Y6 G) v: {0 a9 L
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth2 T! B! M, Q' n: `& z
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
2 Z: g; t5 y! e$ z2 Q2 Z/ { Cfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are$ e- B. D. Y: [* x5 R% ?( L4 E
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
" u1 ]$ a2 |8 c, z9 v! T; Kpresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.( s O9 \7 e& A3 w9 m8 M! j3 s
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We' r z+ c1 H. ]& @ H5 t( f
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy; [/ m- R4 a* z% T; M9 m7 @- K
balanced market."
5 Z4 w' B9 k4 S8 q2 t J3 o- `) _: z
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
3 p6 v1 S4 V: [! q9 vconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift! i+ E+ \3 T; N7 L
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
# x+ D) Y7 [' I2 rthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
9 { z. T) ~5 }4 k! zenergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
! P) {; E+ m% ]$ N; Cmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record, o2 g; x5 {1 {& S$ a7 G% x
breaking price appreciations.
) x5 C1 f0 y5 `1 R4 a: W) ]; |5 x' A) U7 j3 a5 d# u
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
) R! F0 a) I# xeconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
) I/ }, h$ w0 J/ U7 S) jlargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
' [8 O2 r5 l5 R4 }
( W7 R; p% }2 Z. j9 Z In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid. B5 z1 A/ p' H0 ]( n5 h( r
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
1 R( f$ v& h! J: rconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off- }6 a: L8 q5 V c9 F0 X) ?1 C4 K
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
# H* w- c( F- x: C3 M8 o4 aIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers6 i9 k% q, y2 x% J8 B8 s3 [* Z: \! ]
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
, f! J% c/ r9 a; uprice appreciation when compared with 2005., m. W8 ]. Q* w4 O7 r2 |
) L' D) K, I* Z& I+ J j
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
?7 @3 b" o3 [( \1 M3 d! _& Ymarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
- w. y9 Y$ [7 ?3 E0 u' H8 Wfinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
# L+ r, O [; S$ vare markedly different than those found in the United States.
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Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
( |, o! ?% I* G) s$ i+ j7 SAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's( I3 l& U) E( V ]$ O. C+ v
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the; x& i, X3 c& `1 i; Y" w
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general. @% E( m: h; x1 s4 j
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the2 C+ x6 s% z- [" y! a7 |
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and2 M8 J% a2 |& d X
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
" w- g* G2 h9 M T0 zmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment.". a* O! U. s$ U: L0 j3 y$ l7 T
! o7 u- j8 Z8 }/ k8 @, Z( P- E <<) y7 `# y, R; n+ z
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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5 ~, O) v% i: _$ v
1 N: b: L3 v8 b& m Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
& O, |9 y: P$ T2 T) iHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate8 Y3 e- d+ Y" l' {6 F# I
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
8 c) C* ^; ^4 G7 b) t& zlooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of+ `5 K0 [5 Z6 E
renovations.
6 _. R9 a# O# }9 F# D; H7 `; J6 a# H5 b1 e
The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
1 ?/ {% b. p: p; ?9 Pincrease in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation( A* @7 c' Q( Z4 O+ T
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
, M o0 Y& @4 K- C G0 k. oSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.8 ^. E' F8 @3 M7 }
' i# f0 {4 t& E3 _
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer ]6 d. D3 j- B6 F* J' L8 `
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the) l: o% [& C) ?9 B8 ]& }; y# K1 h
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
( y; }3 C3 N) _/ u) T; ]600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
- ~, _5 j# u" m" r$ r8 Uto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes! f9 }; ] p3 u
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.6 v' }( O+ F$ x0 x, o
/ _ M. V1 g% \6 m3 { In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced9 e' Z* x8 s# |% b7 G
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
: y, t8 n l L+ w! Jhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers4 C! y4 K0 F3 _8 A
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian g. _( N( m+ B" n' `+ p$ |, c2 s
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
& L1 f5 g& G6 V! ^3 Zbuyers with more options when looking for a home.
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Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
; @; ?4 G/ w- _. K" damong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
& N( T) X2 P% D- F4 d9 w2 D* s2 Apriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
. L4 C+ {" g% O* I2 X( u' y# [as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
9 q) d6 @3 Y2 C) w3 U5 t8 ?few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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6 u3 n' p) X0 y0 H Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house+ C; m9 ?: U' E
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory" X" ]. L" }0 U4 ?( Q
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
+ }& d9 t8 A3 ^ }! Cfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,! M3 b) q/ ^! Q, Y- w
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the q; C6 t! m9 S' B( g7 o
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before. D$ v8 o% s O
making a purchase.
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Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
4 m/ ], r/ u* r# Q" qmarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
6 F. y; S, Z1 l0 z; g, Gconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city( t, ` m6 \9 Y4 U- e
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting+ z8 d; s: Y4 j" o8 K" v' m8 Y7 b; X
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown/ F. X) J' n8 o
amenities., z" N- W( b, j) g6 ^6 s/ m
6 I3 e$ H: j$ H The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels2 @) K) b7 s( a
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand6 n. P8 c7 U# G* k# s# ?
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
" k2 R Z& \. ? Pcontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been9 k9 Y: U C K7 Q) ~$ f
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle, {5 Q: a$ y) w1 f3 o
residence, rather than for investment.6 ?! z: g/ c1 y; y: T8 q B2 k
2 I x1 I* u3 k, O- K) ? The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
( n/ a) h4 b5 z+ K9 V& j0 Ahouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
6 x7 X: ~0 x9 f2 Kin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
v, W: n: i4 uconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization5 x/ P& M" P" l+ s7 z$ A
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter) x8 q2 `7 G6 `3 F: |; e* ]
the market.
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In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through# Y, v- S w U; d0 h7 e( t. n) x
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
' E. T' D. q' e. ^August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
- Z/ p1 r5 J% J& `- Q8 Kmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due( ]$ @5 [6 Z7 M4 \1 u9 D
to the shortage of available inventory.
9 R$ G. D' D$ a# t0 V. E/ [$ v- s' E0 t; R2 j' x% ?3 t- D
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
/ M4 b1 W* Q; }* o# imomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains1 Z, I6 y! \5 M4 p* L4 _% X
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses/ K1 s( N) c/ J4 e. M# ~) B
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.) J7 S5 I: x6 P' ] w3 X
0 w7 u; w0 Y* ^/ o& N7 F Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
( o) B+ A8 ]. ?1 O7 C, d2 ~* Kin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
, J _( ]+ R) f: I- Eunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
: C/ ^ B* r$ P! cpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring6 j" t* S0 O& S2 M2 G9 l2 j$ @
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
- l6 o' n7 q0 P" yseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
4 y4 l1 ^: U4 q& _buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.3 ?" x/ P" g- c
$ J; V" m4 j) s5 n/ D' T A
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter' b B4 P- A$ X4 o1 ~5 |
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton: ~) `+ k) K3 ~- ]
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,9 u2 d6 }( k2 X! X
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices# b. y2 ~' K! Q M; Q F
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
' d. ^+ j! r# s: D2 d9 v4 X, Bin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
2 B; c7 d- T5 L. K; T' d) F# s% r! Rtowards the end of 2006.
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While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of& ? A1 p" {: e. ~
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable9 q' a2 C' _- O& `
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
6 c' v% b7 l ]- x6 Agroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
, ] S0 z. }1 z4 `foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
8 j) O7 m1 U3 a' v( _% e, V3 Bpressure on tight inventory levels.7 d/ o- B& ^9 h- Z* W5 J
1 Y) v% Y2 z' U0 S4 U" V Q Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic8 ?8 _6 B% b1 j. ?# w/ e
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
, x f# i; Z3 T% b0 ` finto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;4 ^) u8 |( G, S8 j7 c+ u# i
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching- |! a( x' O+ Q* E) e0 U
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.: y9 g) |( j+ l" @1 H
3 S4 A+ C9 m* f% P/ b l4 G
<<
: Q( A" v( t# k" b5 ] Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
/ y) B4 x7 d, g Z4 c p) b1 I% @/ f- w6 _8 Y' j
-------------------------------------------------------------------------5 l3 P! a# O6 b% `; y, N
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
$ D6 m# P& j* x1 q; [6 j7 O -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# X* S6 v) \; \1 }& W1 { 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
1 ]% n7 E( Y( H0 e/ N Market Average Average % Change Average Average
: W* V7 p) A% o( b, S; c3 ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------
' O h+ v0 ^: Z% G$ ~ Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,0006 w2 [6 R! w+ C! |8 J" P; m5 X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------' w4 ? z3 \' D$ m2 E2 L7 x
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
2 _% K" E" C- l: H8 D* n; { -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& v* m" g/ J3 _ Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000) r& n4 `' U$ J p8 I& z9 r$ V
-------------------------------------------------------------------------8 n Q& C% t3 V
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
* v" b: S! W! Z% V! V4 _: q -------------------------------------------------------------------------
T4 f& s, A2 L1 w St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333! h* P1 q4 I p; B: T" w
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Z b: E% b c, W
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583, t5 e/ d. K# ~. O0 O* y+ d! j* X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------2 P: O" i8 N8 y8 h
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
6 N) `2 Z _: L4 m4 ^ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
: l. |+ ^+ K: ]/ d Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250. E, q# z+ W7 d
-------------------------------------------------------------------------5 K8 k# T8 w, v' [, S
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
3 z* U& c* Z0 }2 r! O. y -------------------------------------------------------------------------0 O6 P* O+ ^- V7 H% C
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
, z0 K% g9 `5 n- `& l1 G; ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------1 O+ ~, x h" W
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,5005 g! G8 I8 r, \
-------------------------------------------------------------------------$ x6 H5 ~# x* }+ q8 M! O8 O1 G
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
! j4 g0 |( M" I0 u9 ^ -------------------------------------------------------------------------) y: t8 L: {+ V; u! |- V9 X
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714+ i# k2 ~; C$ Z7 I G. X: \% R
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ B6 m) {7 W7 }7 g: B( M) Q Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500. [: s9 S1 t# s c
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 f5 s" z! w0 j" G! H9 ~1 c! l Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000! p7 v! S0 S/ T6 T% {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
# g% j0 p3 D' u( U National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
& ?0 A& _1 e& F, G+ I; c+ }" [! a2 [ -------------------------------------------------------------------------. Z' d6 a5 t% X- `! ^3 b( |& o# j
7 P+ Y6 q' k$ m" F
-------------------------------------------------------------2 w" t. i s5 z* V. _
Standard Condominium( V+ i7 }( I8 @5 x* Q. Z8 R2 M: F
-------------------------------------------------------------
$ C/ M0 e4 x: m3 B* D [ 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
8 k5 x- O- a( U+ h6 k( F( b- f' ? Market % Change Average Average % Change
5 G& _' Q" u+ h6 y3 E* L/ d& c# H, i -------------------------------------------------------------- B" K/ p- ]. I7 x
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
: ?6 _$ P+ ]( N$ D -------------------------------------------------------------/ _% i3 e! V) W. }6 E& t* o/ h7 o
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%( k' f! e( f8 e. Q( N% L: N+ V, }
-------------------------------------------------------------, O% t" W/ S0 o& R0 I
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
9 u4 l3 C) J4 c; Z -------------------------------------------------------------( N9 R1 n9 c$ F% q. K1 @) U4 n
Saint John N/A - - N/A/ D) L. L. I9 x% o. |& ]
-------------------------------------------------------------
9 P! A4 x0 B2 |$ ]9 E/ j. F- U$ U St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
5 M6 N0 a( B8 l/ B0 s) Z* t -------------------------------------------------------------
/ \$ h' O; ?( t0 V Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%3 k5 k" d+ P' s
-------------------------------------------------------------
u7 h% u3 J; A0 b$ R( d. [ Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%2 f i6 e$ ]7 L) m! \ q
-------------------------------------------------------------
" B* D) n. P# U$ R Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%4 k1 Q1 U& d7 s# `1 |$ r9 C
-------------------------------------------------------------
# B; y4 @- a# }8 \2 I Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
6 R6 H$ a) O7 [9 Z -------------------------------------------------------------
; T' k/ Z# p) S/ d; `5 @ Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%7 C6 ?) M/ r5 I3 W1 r& R9 {
-------------------------------------------------------------
* y0 N- p- z: I- p& H Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%- q* `/ n- C! ^- P* G
-------------------------------------------------------------% i, Q2 ?( c3 O$ o7 Z; F( y# N0 M- K
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
, _- i3 a8 h% `2 t1 l; l2 _ -------------------------------------------------------------$ u/ X$ l* U; J! p4 v# }# H
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%4 j, ?4 x+ v3 K& L0 c6 p
-------------------------------------------------------------/ {+ _1 y( q) k* V
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%4 {' N/ u6 u/ y
-------------------------------------------------------------
, {$ J% G7 }( i+ R Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%* c% M1 {. b4 @* D+ E
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 k# ~. |5 C# p- [( s! z National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%0 _$ q" K- P; Y8 d) ^4 t/ z
-------------------------------------------------------------5 b: n" ?, R/ R! C
>>+ V( D4 I3 T4 O4 o$ K9 C- V3 L
5 X& J( T5 p1 D2 c% h7 z Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined. G: c0 a2 K D9 S8 R1 {6 z6 `
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint6 S3 q+ Y3 A( K! g4 [
John and Victoria." M% o. T7 J' V! d) N' ~2 ?
7 A+ C2 O) n* A& a+ o: V The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
! |* r- F4 m" E7 rcomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
- d, [/ a$ I0 m+ Q* G* h7 Bhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release4 ?8 u3 U7 x, h, J4 ^& R& k4 m
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price: o% P0 `( M) e; E# v, A, \4 ^# F
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
, L; U( r! _; V6 Z9 _5 S9 S' Eacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
; @ r( A3 E( B% N; o% }available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
+ I7 F5 t& W' M+ i4 k' P) A9 dfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable2 A. N7 a7 C* k1 ]% \" Y6 j/ w
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
4 l; L. v2 {" J: w* {+ X" W4 s1 mNovember 15, 2006.3 r% Q+ ]- J9 D# j6 b, S4 X
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of) E% C+ C5 H% E7 k
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
0 y. Q3 U; y: x0 }6 }5 T( Mprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is u2 a. S: ]" e) J6 ?: s
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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