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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable , ]/ p: n* }. d+ G
" I% {% R; a' C6 A
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
8 P6 w; i, G$ [: T O
5 l, u: j9 Y1 d7 s# Y TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market6 j* Z3 r/ u8 {8 I
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
3 d9 t) ]5 Y1 i) |4 P6 d6 c2 e: g0 Pquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
- H, V" S7 |: \* G2 u& Din the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit3 z3 H0 E# ~( ?1 Z
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and2 h7 a$ D* ~$ d8 ?( b9 ?
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
$ n& [/ ?3 k+ r/ RQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
9 }* ]$ Z. ^8 I" i j. U) |! hLePage Real Estate Services.. X. M0 I7 a$ m6 A, G% G
& v0 q, c! K8 y* s- l Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
; o. |! u5 j: F; ~8 o8 I0 `are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
/ w5 d9 @+ @6 M5 v3 d7 ?* L- sconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and+ N, A0 p% {9 A& [+ Q' ^
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the! _8 b- S$ |3 L0 X: L6 l
residential real estate sector.
9 j i# ^% Y4 \/ O! D7 Y
, X3 N- f8 u- x4 v7 K+ c3 b X Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation; u! Z- Q- }7 w) j! K/ }
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
, W6 x: w: @; u1 |& |% n0 Yyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
7 O7 x9 w3 x: P) i: M1 D7 L( Y9 m(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380# H j9 }/ ?; b$ Y+ X
(+13.2%).
. M. } x4 @( w4 w# u3 @4 |) ]# R6 }
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth1 m# [* B7 L7 H# p* I
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the3 x2 f; e! h( l1 J+ E
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
5 ]0 F/ ]# X- i( E. Vpoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
7 ]" S/ K% L0 r6 D) u) opresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
2 l s6 o/ U) _4 X"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
1 [# c" u: _+ N9 A, J9 T7 d3 iwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy, V; q' y" Q, ?" u# S7 p
balanced market."' U# O3 P: r- @- I# G/ [
, Z$ U) ?+ A' Y+ P& I+ C8 s7 E Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,3 b- ~: U9 m6 [4 r4 W3 G; L) o* I
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift) Z) S( p9 K- L0 g& M
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
6 f. I" D4 H- r5 W! i2 Bthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
% M& i+ U6 |; N% Yenergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,1 @) R2 U: z9 M! p$ x
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
0 v: w2 ?( B3 f+ l2 x& ^breaking price appreciations.( S: u: P) g3 i% ?5 O4 ?( }/ M
/ z/ r" \# Y8 X/ _: ~ Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
) ?' K9 h: l( y% O' ]economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the; U+ V& i& T) d+ f' `8 g& O
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.( F3 H/ L/ n& ?% W! A& c2 c
! [ j0 o" C1 E) v' s( X In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid$ B- c _, `6 C1 E
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer% Y0 K3 T, A9 \2 W
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
5 X# @0 L; b c ]slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.: F' b6 x3 w$ P I5 o& n J! X" e
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
) [& F8 {& L- p- Jgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
) b$ S8 _" b% Lprice appreciation when compared with 2005./ l. D) D7 @! h- H. F
9 y- [- s, Z& |4 R* }! f4 U3 N While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
5 {+ Y: {/ k1 x$ P) \0 vmarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and- J. ]( F6 V. n+ M A$ s
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada5 k1 r' W2 j# Q& d% K! X
are markedly different than those found in the United States., X. E* L( O8 K q: f f4 y6 @
5 t/ c9 O" G/ \% ~ Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
5 e4 q- \: |1 S* LAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's5 O$ a0 b6 u! G+ v
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
+ L8 u6 L" ]! R. X: brelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
, W5 s3 n2 Z6 F4 C7 o2 Q( ]affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
$ ^& L% |1 w3 a, {downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
. l+ i" f6 g; v: `1 x8 t4 U& Kaggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization& z9 T: y D0 R5 J) |
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
* @$ I" \" Q# @9 y- m* a) N B
: Q9 Q. m/ J( O) i <<
& x/ H5 e# F" }; o REGIONAL SUMMARIES
2 i% q6 C3 B2 ~3 O1 v O5 ? >>
+ B& E* `1 r; J5 |1 G; \
. C2 i* x6 ]+ S) r$ ? M Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in1 `$ d. ~& y5 q { o4 A
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate3 ^7 M) Z! J2 {$ C
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time2 Y' ^+ m& d" D
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
, x' D. u7 s% H7 ~$ Grenovations.. [6 D6 r; G- `' J2 Q1 v
q1 ?- r5 c* } The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight0 S* e( v" `$ g w& e% a' G- k2 C
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
# C: b0 z# g' `" p7 U/ ncompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and4 T" a, K N# J" E1 V
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.6 f# D" f% D3 R9 Y O
& H- T5 y& U" s& L- U
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
8 u1 `* W! K& n3 p) c9 t9 l; E6 j; Lslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
* B z+ E: Y6 a; t4 Vquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
7 R* c4 d& ^( E0 `600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
0 u. A$ t! ?* K# |" o* U. y7 }7 B! D9 xto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes+ `+ L. c. h6 n) _' Q
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
* V0 h$ \. C+ T2 N5 w3 l4 ^) g" A
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced+ K; `4 ^% J! f `% t8 g3 j
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
% g o" ?6 [8 R+ Mhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers6 o. Z) @7 s. a3 r
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian9 u v( b5 ~4 z: O
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing4 `3 z* x1 S( S" U y. k& A0 O, c
buyers with more options when looking for a home.. M& N& a3 d% R
* Q/ e0 S9 J7 V% r, \7 v7 `
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
9 u/ I( ~* A6 f3 f e/ y1 Xamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes& _* k$ v; s7 l, v' z" O
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
! t c& m! f' ias some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last( U; \1 u1 D" B" m
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions." s4 S8 i K8 a
) V2 V. d+ U" _0 }& @! f% _: i Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house! O; \, ^6 a4 A6 b9 R
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory8 h. }, {- F4 ]1 I" }
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting5 N( \: m3 |+ f- Z: d% L2 }
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,9 D) y6 J- Y9 s6 P
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
* _5 Y( X0 w) e6 n+ h& a" Fpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
9 h* r0 S7 X T6 bmaking a purchase.
' R X& m( t% @' [+ d# K$ Q( N0 m) m, ~
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing; R& ?9 x, R8 U! Q# F U* h
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
5 J' y; d$ i' g- r8 j& e% w+ Cconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
0 l" n* f c) ^* n# xcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting1 N& D" k3 D ?3 r
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown. T. |- U0 l) A+ d7 v
amenities.
% W3 B# Z) G- s& f+ t
9 P, O7 D0 }5 y2 _" q3 r! \, a The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
7 T) I a6 _1 M. bthroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
8 M$ Q8 M" T: k1 Yacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has3 Q9 g% l+ o1 K8 m0 R, J" u
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
; [6 {1 C7 ^3 F+ U5 edriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
' u+ F1 C' O* U" J6 g! M' iresidence, rather than for investment.
; [0 n: `/ `) `5 O6 n6 \- y" q; K' Y- o
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as( d2 R3 h1 p: R/ K; Q' K
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted' T& l2 O9 B6 J0 W! ~
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer! Q, U# I5 Z& y$ Z3 `3 O- Z
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization' N$ R( q( l' j" h1 R
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
; d1 `* X4 _# \( a! i0 ^3 h+ Athe market.5 u' N7 f( G7 C- V) `( y# |
% B) q3 `; M6 E# O In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through8 g! R8 [% J! Z$ u9 I, d6 W; Y
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
6 g6 L6 u* e/ b1 R, q9 V. Z) ^- ?August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
, o6 j, L! n' J' ^( gmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due5 |3 r& f3 W# ~# c. ~
to the shortage of available inventory.
4 H0 N+ n2 z E6 O! J$ k& G; i; k7 m. D
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its; v# o# b; ~# f5 |. T& q
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains: ?$ ]/ u7 u8 R9 c) H% I3 A1 C. Y8 ~
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses; o: A: r# ]- x, X
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.$ i' `, ^9 }& r0 z- ~
# |( g; S/ g& E% r, _# ~& @5 r
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases2 E0 N5 ]& Z8 @) t1 g7 q( K
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
, O0 N. a8 \1 D: X/ Nunemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that$ ^3 t; c4 i D
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
6 i; f y: G% Z6 a, ^, Zprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer; q; O% P* z' U5 [. \7 u& L
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as/ f$ K0 l/ q" o6 ^3 D" \: b% h5 a3 y5 g
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.1 k4 {0 j, R6 l# E* w: s7 d& ]1 e* P
$ P1 B0 I2 g7 r4 D; ?
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter/ W0 Z$ t9 _$ M* S. `' ^6 K
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton/ a! P/ W8 v6 U6 J2 w P2 Y; ~( o6 `
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
# Y$ \7 g, i8 Wmaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices3 ^) W" \) D( b: ?+ z! G1 d d
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
4 d( N9 X3 W' j7 Q3 M- f; Qin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
- G% u# \# J6 ^. r8 u: Otowards the end of 2006. / Q2 |; Q: c7 |' B( t0 ^0 h
' g& {" M8 f% O P+ x6 y {4 Z
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of) x! R" }( ~2 X* @/ w) L
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable+ I7 E! j1 |+ t% @' ], q: R
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
X1 W/ r2 c4 F1 w& zgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to) g. G; Y. g J2 S4 O# e
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
/ C" w% v0 g+ ?: K4 V6 Apressure on tight inventory levels.
, G3 g* r9 I/ T: F8 D' X) N {6 T* N) W" v
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic; ?+ y8 \! E, D" @2 f. u
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
i5 e, M: W3 ainto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;* }' O- J) c5 T; U$ R! b
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching* C; T5 R' }' x, T
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
9 o# F+ n) @7 N" `6 s# a0 j
4 f- O4 q. J5 x" p/ A! f7 s5 Z <<: ^% V6 @6 R( l
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
: e2 D' e0 C' E+ g0 ~# K7 b5 } S0 ?: M) s% F: X' ?! U w& ]& M
-------------------------------------------------------------------------3 U8 X; j0 F# r q" ^
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
. _' i6 ^, K" g% V2 u -------------------------------------------------------------------------
) o" G6 D0 T& ^2 ^ 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
% L* Z4 f) ?/ k Market Average Average % Change Average Average
1 s3 P! s9 ^& u, ~$ F -------------------------------------------------------------------------, p6 o, R( ]( T! g
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000+ @: `3 H" E, O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 q6 K; H4 R" J, @) b" D Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000 `& K+ n3 {8 ?$ u4 z* G+ O4 _
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 ?$ n- t* S* k, s/ m9 Y7 u Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
: l* M$ E V( W4 z -------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 B7 b0 ~5 s7 h, T' H' I) a1 ]% D Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -0 L5 M V3 t' x. L+ X" ^/ I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
& t$ S6 m2 ^" p* h# H St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,3333 A2 v/ F/ v2 {$ m7 s' \
-------------------------------------------------------------------------) o& S4 @2 `/ _( D1 |4 O3 o( ^) @
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,5830 n& Y, M+ f0 N" ?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------/ [" h8 K) y7 U& d. d' Q9 s! S
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185* Q# [2 J# ~6 R$ P& q) {' @( \: r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
# f% X. f& y# r+ B Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,2502 v! m1 z; m" s# I. T
-------------------------------------------------------------------------0 F0 d5 b& J$ H' q
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
( ?! Z5 Q1 v6 ~0 h i+ U -------------------------------------------------------------------------; x0 R. C8 R3 j' i
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,7072 b, Q) s# [! |: h
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- i7 z' {# {5 r- y
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
" L V, R/ i6 X8 x, ~) w -------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ @) @, t& X. y: Z) u U Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389: u9 P& ?& a% k% L l+ B1 k" d
-------------------------------------------------------------------------8 Q4 {& c- D! ^) T; ~
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
/ T4 V8 _& ~. n5 ?' d3 a$ o0 g7 Y9 o -------------------------------------------------------------------------% g; j7 g4 t. c" A$ g1 D9 y
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
" D% b$ v- F6 v -------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 V: ~+ C6 p8 t/ y" i5 N o6 u+ p Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
8 Q, ?, X* c- s+ _) @( o9 h -------------------------------------------------------------------------. I6 f' k O- j; A
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860+ h- R/ x3 c- ~4 g7 F6 B. C
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* i# z/ x5 \6 l+ S! e" f
1 S) z1 ]: {( \# z7 [' \+ p# J -------------------------------------------------------------
1 H' U: v; T# [4 d* j! c9 H Standard Condominium
/ q# N7 K. @% R2 `/ L) t -------------------------------------------------------------
7 V1 n7 y" m t( I$ n( |7 k 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
, q- V6 U8 \( D9 K6 W* t Market % Change Average Average % Change" o" Z/ p- F. W7 w1 k# S2 d/ D& k, B
-------------------------------------------------------------
) e; s& M) o) A$ b) A: q Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%7 s* V/ {! g: q9 K( N
-------------------------------------------------------------0 i* I- p2 ?* \. u2 d
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
- V5 w8 }+ ]' I4 f -------------------------------------------------------------
, l, C) o3 n4 s5 ]# D s# s8 x Moncton 4.9% - - N/A9 h+ Q: j! b. M3 C" p
-------------------------------------------------------------
( t( F/ W- u- N3 m1 \ Saint John N/A - - N/A
; J% s5 Q/ C! e1 e -------------------------------------------------------------" X; @- n0 u! Z. ]$ f
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
$ X" @5 B( b$ D1 m( k -------------------------------------------------------------% L9 d7 T8 l! f2 f% M. P4 \" _
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%# B4 w# W9 ^" ~& h
-------------------------------------------------------------
( I$ S' E9 z4 S# Y: p Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
+ q" p, g% P9 O -------------------------------------------------------------* j# C4 U& T( J7 K* d
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
& @: j7 w8 h; X+ f& I0 Z -------------------------------------------------------------
# \# y6 X6 | T) y9 b* {% R Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
+ p9 x" [# K" G, f' V -------------------------------------------------------------4 l2 ?( q- |! l4 e6 M
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%5 `( X( S4 A5 X$ I5 F7 ?
-------------------------------------------------------------. P! x; ^0 ]: o# D+ y+ ], A) J
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%" E& c, t& |- M' v" o! a
-------------------------------------------------------------
8 {7 g% N: W3 n, Y Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%6 b. E# \3 _" Q
-------------------------------------------------------------
: C E/ P2 ~1 P# d- C Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
( |% _8 R- g* ` -------------------------------------------------------------
5 c- b" w5 [5 I: A& N ^ Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%* i: W& q" M3 A/ R. \" u
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 s* L2 ?; T/ g2 c) W& @- Q Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%' S, x' Y2 O P P& N) l
-------------------------------------------------------------' C. s7 S4 V" d6 A N' z7 J
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%. L3 t- C( b' @ f% L
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 k" Z7 X' O4 v/ `# b, s8 i >>
) [0 D. j" P; Z+ b# M5 a$ H
8 \- T9 }! T+ j% M$ y4 P( ~) Z Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined0 l! J2 x2 U$ B. v2 [
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
7 j9 ?: L* _1 i6 Q% cJohn and Victoria.5 x- L( ^3 P% B0 q' V, b( [
# {+ P5 u0 @5 s3 Y0 J The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most- g; m) B8 R2 j3 G) G
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of3 D6 \' I0 i/ H6 m# U' L* e5 s4 t
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release9 y5 v5 x, X! l- s3 ?' Y
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
2 W# u) m: }. Q1 o' V3 Ctrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities- w: h' A, l2 ~! r) }
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
; B4 O/ i! S0 V2 ravailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current( P G+ Y/ [( {- W
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable! ~& u9 G+ v; _, _. |
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on& G9 U4 i: n1 N# U9 h1 F
November 15, 2006.
/ U& f' P; H: F) z5 ? Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of& F9 `# k9 g' O9 C0 |) q3 h) u* R
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge$ O4 P' J) C8 N
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
) n. I# z1 y: X3 y/ vavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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