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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable % o9 O: z0 ]2 B3 @( {( c- K* v
- C) |% z" n3 H1 c2 D* I( Q8 z
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -( S6 E& I6 S! s1 I1 {4 [
6 T; p" A4 M7 o0 e TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
8 X+ w3 @* o! t9 \" bexhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
! t3 d1 o/ e6 x5 s9 U3 Aquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic/ b- y$ J+ q% T; ~7 n! N7 F
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit( x6 H/ f9 G# r8 b4 D- b1 I1 i1 U
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
* p c1 N! e+ F& N3 l* d: Rmore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,6 F4 L! {: P9 G( A
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal% ?5 D7 C) ]2 r5 X# @1 g
LePage Real Estate Services.6 f" }- o1 X i
& i& t$ U# r: d5 G1 A! k
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters2 U T( O; D+ ~$ V: A- g
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic4 a% ]' D2 O+ ?1 u1 K
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and3 F3 r& I, q# A: ]# M0 @# C/ F
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the4 E, q, V5 x4 b
residential real estate sector.& w" O2 A* w2 O6 Q2 M( m
3 z/ m, \- k0 ?" [% h f. H Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation. Z9 C0 W! [4 L0 w% v% P
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
$ p- O. S( [; X; j( Z6 p1 Vyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
- T3 C. N) ?9 g/ _2 B9 R(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
- o& E! x4 P C7 B6 L( C' e! X(+13.2%).
8 k: E4 ^1 K) V' m: n
$ k, D9 W6 U2 ~' r2 B4 F& r+ N9 z "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
) X' m. }" r4 c, m1 j9 c* zduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the7 q6 G# x1 v* H5 _# W* ~
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are( D* h% |3 O. z' i d2 ?6 g
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,, j. h, e5 c' d t( s
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.1 E# f$ Z1 X. a6 s" k
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We. x% [' V) \2 X; r4 o
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy, w6 W9 k. n% E/ C
balanced market."
1 H) Z+ U3 Z3 t' t; i) I2 B* @4 W3 _& g
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
2 O8 E5 t7 z9 A2 g, Bconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift% V. T t# G7 o
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued( j/ ]+ y( j7 ~ q
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core1 s) c: x2 U# f5 I& ^) v
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
5 D$ }0 w) v+ K; x8 Vmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record/ f* m5 G$ A# v
breaking price appreciations.
' k- g3 B4 U+ {# Z. A% J" G0 c* s/ y: i
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding$ N+ q h) ^0 o. R$ u, ^
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
2 ~# [$ O b- C' _# \largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.$ i8 _6 m5 F8 Y; ]+ c
7 [9 T! T2 C |% o5 G
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
3 G8 o( a" Q+ k P! ^ w, l, keconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer) i& a# Z, C- y e
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
% S% d3 y* q4 Zslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.$ K0 G9 g2 [5 X U4 h
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers, O& o5 M8 m! j
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
6 b: m3 ^$ L* C6 V! V" v9 Pprice appreciation when compared with 2005.
) `' k( i: s$ b* u9 d8 g
. L# h3 u( u! e6 M While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing$ e4 X& l/ a" d& Z; P$ W8 A
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and8 Z$ U% s, V1 l! o/ u
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
: c% n% l) K! Ware markedly different than those found in the United States./ C- J8 v1 f2 |% X
: S) R9 z* t7 r* l- u) ]6 F
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the7 O% M, A! R# G$ y0 l
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's8 d# q1 u# y `" r
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
6 p) ?* N. @: ^8 h Prelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general- D( U3 W% t6 y" s0 p
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the$ {5 S9 d+ P0 ^
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and- @8 p5 A1 _, J- r3 X
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
! s( Y% X Z" p- dmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
+ W7 v( [" R& S+ m' u
, f& i! j0 A4 `7 i5 z2 J- v <<( k* x/ F3 D$ {/ n
REGIONAL SUMMARIES7 b: _2 H. f. h$ a
>>$ y; {8 X" @! e2 F' C
1 C5 T$ _$ O+ k, L" f5 i+ x7 Q
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
* }) ~ O! G! j8 z' ^$ M' vHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate4 y! y( g, ^7 E, e O. d1 K1 A5 K
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
2 Z+ z1 P$ _3 g& L8 Ilooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
6 E f" S: E; Yrenovations.7 k; S m1 ]! Y0 T5 \6 }% J
4 G/ |& i3 K/ _+ S: q3 @7 T3 o The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight$ L! q/ l) H% t1 m( C" s
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
$ C p& n3 U2 p" \4 H* C+ kcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
6 n8 L3 `; E" XSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
# }: }. }8 n8 w9 _9 t% L9 h/ U+ w3 Y; x
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer& F2 k2 k! O: `/ s
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
0 F+ y3 @8 T9 h% gquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new/ o+ {1 r5 h/ `; U) y9 Z& H% a
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores4 t3 [% M- o" y6 x
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
% D' T6 t! Y& F7 C1 y" T# tand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.9 c- j% M0 E0 Q/ X1 |
3 ^, k* [# B- c1 g# I5 b% M
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
. @( i/ q0 L8 L! O9 @& E5 d* t8 ?conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their- g7 U* c2 ^# g* M" F# V. S" p: Y
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
& O8 n @ N, I& I) {0 k5 T6 cwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian- W- y/ L+ F+ X6 L2 S; x
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
8 h3 I. ^( O m8 X; M( k* L) qbuyers with more options when looking for a home.
1 B8 E# H. F, T9 R* c W7 Y {, X. i# M6 x6 W! O( L
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly! y+ R8 \# ~' F, b
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes" c% b5 w6 _" I+ z1 Y% B
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
0 N3 @# _$ Z P- ^as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
) N6 \2 B% x6 T3 q' }few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.. O+ `6 o9 y. o$ |7 [4 J5 u
! |) S% s9 S0 f+ [6 M( @
Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
3 T. P& C1 B2 h5 d9 n% v" lprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
8 b, e- a+ L8 {* t6 vlevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
^$ c: Y3 z9 qfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
7 @8 `+ @4 p. ]# C5 dwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the3 M* p. t% ^( z
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
# v5 ]# M7 B5 u% b7 r5 a J7 xmaking a purchase.
4 _) ^4 q8 H/ A( G* z! {4 u9 l; G6 O5 d0 ?4 o* R) [/ C
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing0 @7 Z. t6 e$ H' R1 G
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong" ?7 }' \7 W7 X- D) G
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city3 G: r) \8 L( a z7 b2 F
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting" M, S+ f) p( s+ r3 l+ B+ J
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
; e O q. f5 T. `0 c: ]amenities.. @9 T8 \# n! k% l- v
+ Y% }. \ F* g# \; f- ?$ M7 N
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels8 j! b( D9 D0 s
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand/ X8 f+ E9 U! i0 w& x3 n
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
0 ?/ ?' b3 K% n2 a; e) jcontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been8 [! m7 o5 p+ S! g% U6 `0 e
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
: |+ p4 n8 O3 `( Cresidence, rather than for investment.
+ I0 \2 q2 d+ O. {- }% n& H2 {3 [' ?6 P+ E* i
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as0 o$ F! R; b% Y0 [, p* k/ T8 X* n
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
3 A- w, P, s8 v9 ^+ Y5 L7 gin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
T: `7 R# Z* C. r6 tconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
# I9 e0 m0 Z7 I# Rrate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter# ^9 X1 c; B. n- d4 K
the market.
. {% l: u2 h- w1 P5 [$ e/ k3 s3 L
In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
- {0 _, L7 D! m4 C/ X' g' _July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
: c J: p+ F) l, ?+ uAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
4 Y: B: w( ?7 b ]4 A5 ]months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
, C9 E: I: F) k7 p+ Jto the shortage of available inventory.% G+ |4 A# r: z, f4 l- a, o# a
* E$ d& D2 s, ?. h5 k. X Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its1 J5 f' ?8 |0 P" U0 [
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains4 E+ N3 G1 F3 T& f
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
; e, o0 q! }- Astruggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
' h, z* M. A& u( v% O8 ]+ \! P% v, G( z
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
% w( V }% n6 } N6 ]; ?in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
4 o& A" V3 H# p% d% r5 A( @unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
. c) X5 Y- d8 c7 ~pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring. o0 {8 y- I1 L& P! S( ~
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer {% A9 M/ O4 L4 u4 N- g& P
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as" P* ?6 E/ G* |2 _
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
& F( P- m$ F; _5 M+ @6 S# D+ A1 [6 s4 M3 l5 V5 i& `7 |
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
$ _% t0 }9 B. U& {& ?' i8 Das activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton6 L9 U0 A# c1 x5 |
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,5 b% v4 S/ b+ ?1 M; H
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices, q' B) J( n2 @
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
2 Y2 M# Z$ J% Z# \, d2 kin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
6 o: X4 h/ o9 N% y. Ytowards the end of 2006. ; {0 p9 m! }; [/ }( h: j! ?8 ^
7 P/ C- G! }1 q6 m- @6 c+ b
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of3 T8 i/ h& P7 O
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
0 ]; C: @, ~2 C$ {+ f; ~6 l$ dto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
: {* z; m, Z; }: r2 U& fgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
# [& @( g3 |5 T: {, Dforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added3 I' o) Z9 @8 T9 k
pressure on tight inventory levels.* h+ O3 }1 M7 V+ ^
2 Y& R, j5 `$ m7 }. \6 O. F
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic7 O0 Q) J9 }& P8 R) `, _
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people& g/ z( B* ]% X( i R) i2 t- H
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
# ~$ Y: O/ c- A: ]while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
6 j/ A; q2 r* k6 V, ufor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
! v! m6 ~ `; S j* i& u) _* j8 `* f4 n$ Q4 {4 e& `
<<- r; n; `7 t5 Q. `9 R: {8 p2 o
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
# P- y! a- p8 d# y5 M5 x% z5 B5 a7 @6 O; X* `; V
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Z* }$ D2 s( \ d% a" t Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
3 b! D5 _6 U ^5 q: ?+ I+ e7 [ -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 D4 w. r2 i% O |9 a5 A, K) \3 R
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
; g9 E* D# S8 `4 C" d( ~& n7 P Market Average Average % Change Average Average
" W4 \. i3 K6 [( D6 e3 t% k2 o -------------------------------------------------------------------------
" l$ b6 }& f8 @* d Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000/ A8 a/ z' d: [
-------------------------------------------------------------------------4 u- N7 |5 ^8 s# n* M
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000; h: E) t U$ V# Q' A: @
------------------------------------------------------------------------- I) K% y2 j* m
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,0000 r0 `' A1 A& b; y6 x8 n4 b5 g8 f
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 M, V0 ^( p. m- h! n$ F; E/ ? Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
& m1 n b: M: N+ R" g -------------------------------------------------------------------------
: C* C0 q, S5 t3 ~! A St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
) {3 F( p1 u) k5 q' Z9 F( Z( | -------------------------------------------------------------------------7 N/ v: e( ?+ y$ Y" `' X" h
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
i2 q- T1 E1 @ {" w9 u8 Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------0 o/ c0 w! e% g6 ~
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
6 E. ?) T& o2 o -------------------------------------------------------------------------6 t7 d! X1 h0 D. j8 d
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
( {/ t$ r8 \! J6 s -------------------------------------------------------------------------4 f# L# v3 O$ B) p9 e9 z
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
: q. n7 ~2 \+ S3 y# R2 H -------------------------------------------------------------------------
, ?! S: e$ P6 I* z# X Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707$ l! z" e8 H$ t
-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ R e5 d& p( q6 ^% b" b5 }
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
1 \4 c+ P/ e# ~; f/ o: w5 S h" b -------------------------------------------------------------------------
- ~* Q3 g9 w( Y. b Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
/ \$ T" G% Q. l& l# ^ -------------------------------------------------------------------------$ s. W. [1 V/ n5 d* M \
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
) G! y! _$ g& O3 g4 t- x$ s6 ?! W -------------------------------------------------------------------------( R F. x$ e, D8 y
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,5000 M( k" R9 \( o( w1 e
-------------------------------------------------------------------------6 X5 L- Q- m6 G7 b4 ~! ]0 t1 P% c
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,0000 z# f6 i5 j8 r( Y, N, a( t
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
( x3 w. [; [' \) o t, I+ L National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860: b. N; a' ^4 D5 R
-------------------------------------------------------------------------8 L! u G1 b( i. M
4 _9 ]1 V$ [( @* b: c3 D( R" R -------------------------------------------------------------: _! x( u2 L2 h9 ]. S
Standard Condominium/ G, Y% c) c5 ~& E
-------------------------------------------------------------
( t0 {" I3 X* ^ 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
+ ^, u/ G0 N. @8 g" A Market % Change Average Average % Change
1 _3 a8 a1 H- B, z e k3 i -------------------------------------------------------------) m" x* v( ?2 B
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%' ~& {" i/ j8 M3 {
-------------------------------------------------------------
- Z8 R+ I9 b, {2 k* B" e1 | Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
6 {3 t+ T9 G( k$ T; Q -------------------------------------------------------------' E* e7 M Q: U
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A/ p+ K1 O9 O# C K( v3 q2 J; N
-------------------------------------------------------------
) N! A8 M* Y% R: B* U& E+ [0 O$ ^ Saint John N/A - - N/A. y1 y0 O/ E/ G3 _5 c
-------------------------------------------------------------8 q) e5 V& ^+ d% k Y$ a
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%- r- r& a3 i$ x
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 g* @2 e t% ]& b( z Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
# r C$ \7 `0 a. G -------------------------------------------------------------- M" I/ z7 `/ j J* @
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%+ }8 E% v5 X6 k4 j, x- {
-------------------------------------------------------------
" {+ l/ t% v- C/ c; Y Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
& J7 o: y$ R. v8 k -------------------------------------------------------------
( `2 x8 u9 \1 [2 s1 z+ h0 ] Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%; [3 T9 `) z/ G! l
-------------------------------------------------------------3 Z6 m0 I& R; x0 b7 w/ ?
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
0 _7 J# o% u$ a* y -------------------------------------------------------------
* r5 x7 s" q0 c Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%0 e3 ?' s) Q" T2 p) H
-------------------------------------------------------------; Z" z v8 O, O
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%" @ l1 G* f3 h& l3 `/ k* L/ V5 s( i
-------------------------------------------------------------
, e, O- O! V+ G; [5 L4 b7 { Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
2 A; C$ _% F, B' R- W -------------------------------------------------------------! u1 b$ b8 G9 t, r
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%) q k" b; J S* @3 e8 s. O2 u5 a
-------------------------------------------------------------
9 Z9 W& H R" M! x2 Q2 [ Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
2 t0 }. K5 N' S9 I- c) h7 S+ ` -------------------------------------------------------------
8 Y* w. v9 h" [ National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
$ _, }9 l( V1 V -------------------------------------------------------------8 I, \( i, O! w* B$ G9 W
>> U% O$ b' q8 i7 V# X- X
z1 E6 [* K& R Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
6 w$ c/ l! h' z% x9 g- c+ g# u6 Oin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint5 h% c* R( L1 S
John and Victoria.
) v7 k. B; P9 h* n ]$ U+ }) b4 }, J( C& L3 W+ |% F# \% C
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
; _/ k1 t8 |% O; o5 x4 z acomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of4 T. U& v# ?$ y/ e- ?3 _/ ]
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release' T% [2 o9 r& b: V' j
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
; {) {% n+ d$ B: y9 ltrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
o/ m/ O3 w9 Y. g7 b! N& nacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
) w7 A* e" X5 b3 K+ O w& A# Bavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current! n) _! l6 y* |" d. a; f
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
. n: }8 d+ n5 h4 Y$ ^version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on5 c6 L0 v' {0 Q9 d
November 15, 2006.
. ?1 O6 S" F7 C! u, p @ Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
2 ?" I/ V* D- Xfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge, Q$ X9 A0 F0 V
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
8 K: \7 ^+ Q. pavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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