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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
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- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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3 J+ q6 d$ @5 x: l3 P" F TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market7 n8 U& @ c P- f
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
/ l& H2 i+ w' D+ n7 d) ?quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
0 B, c! t# ? {! ^1 Y5 Y; J Sin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit- `" a' `* l* `3 X: T* L7 G5 x2 M# L* M
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and) J! a! B- H+ v* g- ~# ~
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
6 @; j8 ]) L* b! }1 [# wQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal$ R, F; o8 k5 V! N; w
LePage Real Estate Services.
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Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters& [ _+ |. a" }4 P& l
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic) ]. u, P/ X+ q3 k
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and% ^. N" K" w; k( d
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
U% N2 S/ y; Rresidential real estate sector.
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Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
! H( v1 m) L/ goccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)3 L' |2 i/ |8 C# u
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
' I y% a& k& y( t O(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,3807 S/ L$ {# x) o/ ^! n* G
(+13.2%)., ~1 H+ g a' `' A$ W! w3 n
% `" \/ a y4 {/ d3 R* @ "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth, P, \. V- h' n2 h
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the: E2 k, \4 X% Q
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
) u9 z* n- L. L2 E8 k* y! ?poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,$ g. u( o8 J+ p }) w
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.& K6 b& W0 I1 ~+ @# F: ~
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
: h% z1 J/ O( `+ P! M7 m- twelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
% r8 \3 l( P. x. ?2 J. |$ zbalanced market."
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Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,5 O1 V" m M, b E
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift2 I+ x- F; d. n5 v6 o6 [
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued' m9 B! R7 U1 R: z' D' V; H
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core. y7 g: h& Y7 B- a0 S
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
) k6 B3 C- Y; c& b; b3 x" }( o, Cmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
7 v7 x7 ], j4 y v4 F5 N8 A9 \breaking price appreciations.
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5 c" @9 H7 Q9 s9 v+ M Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding- {9 k5 ^. m6 U6 W
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the, A, k$ R! o7 i; ]' }2 m8 K5 P
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
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In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid& D* z# A2 t8 c% @2 T# \$ J+ A g
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer! d2 W/ b8 q8 F% d4 P' Z
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off* d2 ]: {2 ?2 ?! f8 ~& E9 }
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.; L% [3 k- @2 e$ R( u) V
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers# }+ X, {0 I" B
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
( a8 q. X4 T( ?8 N% K1 z6 iprice appreciation when compared with 2005.) B% v* i1 L J! k' y
- U4 D7 p& ^9 b" t. z: I While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing- R' h* y% A8 }$ p* o' ~
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and6 {& F- @6 k7 g0 x
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
4 s ]( @3 B6 T m7 @are markedly different than those found in the United States.
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! x8 c1 i# d+ J0 }4 o( w) ^ Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
) H# d9 D" L- A" R6 N& FAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
% {6 V% y8 X0 c$ a" u* Yfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the4 H% C$ S2 B9 F; R) V; r
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
! X) i9 d9 V: D8 y# j( Saffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
8 M) E2 y" ~% X5 E3 ~. j- R- Qdownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and# y# {+ C' |* }0 u
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization' U# J! p; I. r9 G2 G( T4 t; N+ y
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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<<( T! E& f2 Y: v! \7 ]' O
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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( h. h% N. N* F Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
8 l* Y; ?8 T' ?; f7 oHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate6 i( `3 p7 }* \4 w7 |4 G* m( J
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
) w7 C: M: c! R, k4 @' r; ]looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
4 d [5 I1 }( H, i! T4 Qrenovations.
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The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
; [8 C- z- Y+ P% J, J+ l3 Fincrease in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
& b# ~- w% r5 ?2 G: q+ ?! j1 mcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
3 ]/ ~3 k: A. [1 ~3 D! I: OSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
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; j- {5 `& Z6 Q1 e) A8 K The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
/ E6 ~% D- E& n& }$ R4 @0 i2 nslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
- \2 ^( P+ B+ ?5 b: B& \& oquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new$ Q9 h! K8 ?2 a3 w* t3 b6 \7 z$ K* S
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores5 Q* X$ Q$ I+ ? g5 T$ S2 ?
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
5 V9 T3 w' C: s3 `and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.. g; J3 Y( ?" n: k# J1 M$ q
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In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced |# A4 a* E% g- t) X- {$ ]2 l
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their& l- }9 g7 I0 m; O. q0 M( c
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers' U' }. z* i: O$ F. c6 w2 E
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian7 m* T9 k2 M# t2 h; H+ ?3 o
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing( j Q6 q7 S# [7 s9 L S& }- a
buyers with more options when looking for a home.
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Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
" Z$ V# L4 s( p/ kamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
5 l! ]4 g/ V) h# P8 o5 }6 ~priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,6 X2 o4 @9 I- {: K3 G! v6 q( X
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
4 U) Z* O2 A: z, R& zfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions." M o/ Q8 k: m
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house6 y( W9 r( w; P) `0 v! g
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory* U7 e. A: D7 K5 m b
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting2 T, r K1 D* y% P% A3 R5 K* A
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,3 |/ {. K) {# V O- p6 d4 W* x- q
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the* K1 g3 a# T4 v" v6 ]/ ]9 K
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before; V; J- D0 ~) O, z
making a purchase.1 a' g- n/ q5 {+ O
5 h& z3 f9 y3 I4 s( T' O) P Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
, I! T# p) f6 p* S$ _markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
& ^2 H7 R% ` D( E1 S: c- X% Iconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city" C6 N; V! {2 ]; ~, E: w
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
! z+ B% j* k3 [7 p7 d( e6 O: Sattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
4 s9 A+ F& Q6 N. y4 ?- \+ [amenities.2 X$ Y0 `( N: [, k& Z% F3 @, ^" Z
) S5 u$ n7 i( a2 n The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels% c8 z: g+ F* w! b
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
) g. O. i7 I, O! o, r3 H& _# Z4 Lacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has1 f% I$ ]0 Z: x* W9 ?1 Q* S
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
& `6 g! q4 k$ s. d/ Hdriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle. V: W" k: w, O" z3 g3 Y
residence, rather than for investment.
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3 K5 W' ^. E1 u The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as* v; w# ^) x# t& H
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
0 |$ J8 V' m9 O6 l& v: T y: V& ain a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
b6 V8 b2 v2 g! {- L2 y/ e& U E2 gconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
& p- f! q3 W7 [/ H; p: Arate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
4 V$ i( l( k) c3 |the market.5 F A: f6 g% m. w. `% o2 [
/ |! _6 m I1 ^- T In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through) g9 g: |9 @5 _) w4 u# Q# N
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
4 a2 \0 G, W2 H1 Y+ v" j3 |/ _' ~August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring$ {0 G& G/ Y% c4 T
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due% O* b) h& i6 k* d) {& k
to the shortage of available inventory.! a5 g/ i2 w. v5 R
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Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its) `1 l' t, x5 R
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
8 q: k! m" ^6 t- Gvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
% _& Q6 W7 ?" v1 F5 O) I" Zstruggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
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Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
; I7 Z( o! x- j$ H% zin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low7 [1 R1 M I- G, g
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that& B0 z: X$ }1 D- k3 f
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring4 a1 G6 u. I+ N1 {4 j
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
/ Y7 l+ W$ U! I8 h0 [) z# O- M/ Dseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
6 I# F% u1 a4 a4 f6 n* A9 x' fbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
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Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
; N& ^, b) U- h& _/ i" h$ b$ zas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
0 g+ F# J, m) B! y+ ~9 bremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,) T1 [( e( g% b3 W) J( j' n
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
: i5 ]; F6 d; `' A# w# N$ gincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve( w2 F: S; O" K: i; [/ h
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly1 E2 [6 N6 b5 w3 S. q5 g) i
towards the end of 2006.
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5 c) N c: [' W- J2 [- p3 C* WWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of6 | x1 F7 N$ R$ P. S. N. M
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
. R3 v2 f" G. Y# f F. k! Qto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse( U; u% h# \: {" G l
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
4 K1 O9 H$ R6 V% gforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added) h& V, A: @ z5 w: j. Y8 F
pressure on tight inventory levels.
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" O" P% x, w1 X7 U3 i+ I Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic3 O0 u; T j9 \7 U0 S4 _
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
2 ?2 x8 s. |% {+ _7 `( D1 p9 N: ^into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;4 e8 q6 z/ A$ I- V6 h! I) ^0 X
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
+ w/ o& X* h0 Kfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.' q2 p, K8 c9 d2 @
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<<% N1 x+ J$ h! w( @ W
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006! \1 {- M9 t) B+ _1 J
$ Y) q4 T$ O; g- d: t6 P) B: } -------------------------------------------------------------------------1 h8 v% f4 p4 U( p
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
3 ^; d- p* m+ o6 w J2 l% U -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Q. N/ ]$ A, [ 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
5 J- G9 y) ]* k% C* Z; Z4 j Market Average Average % Change Average Average
4 a& `9 ^. \% U4 X u9 h8 E" ?; G -------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ b+ p H. G: i+ P6 U! K0 Y. \, T Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
, c6 v9 D0 U$ o6 ]) y1 ]0 k' l- T; B -------------------------------------------------------------------------
% t/ {. N& X2 c' e- l Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
4 \' f7 [/ U# w& U. N -------------------------------------------------------------------------4 ]4 U" d9 j+ p: C
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000% f0 F6 R( r9 q8 d0 ]' `
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
' i6 @' u6 K+ Y) F- H; E. r Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
5 E0 b% M' ?2 U0 N -------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 S4 H0 t X1 F4 O& g( c St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333- l6 b% b6 J8 c3 B# m
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 O# A* z# X" q2 h: F Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,5831 J/ s7 W% W1 ?% d, Z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------6 H$ J- @' F, d) n' O
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,1855 m2 ?% w9 K( v& @' p
-------------------------------------------------------------------------7 V( a% e% R! I* J
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
7 {5 ~) h* x- g9 l5 ^" x -------------------------------------------------------------------------
% ]- `, Y9 `# C! j+ g Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
3 P* ~4 r k* V3 K1 r# f1 y -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& D5 f+ ]+ @$ R Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
, M% y$ r0 A& u0 F -------------------------------------------------------------------------& m$ Z) L5 Q- k. P! }- B+ t8 S
Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
/ b( v- s- ?4 ~5 K( k -------------------------------------------------------------------------6 L. c+ Z/ w, w2 o _, ?% V/ Y
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389# Z; Z2 ^- f; v$ M' n8 O
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 i, J' d* |- q* k* B Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,7143 U0 t. f* N$ I) g j! p9 t
-------------------------------------------------------------------------# N' A+ e& n& B
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
; t, @7 y2 e9 ?+ W* c6 G0 Z -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# ~/ Z: G9 u% V# P6 | Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000) G. x l; B# S1 n% X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------" d4 A% |* _$ {
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
3 O5 D8 h0 o1 j( h, a& i -------------------------------------------------------------------------+ W9 [+ o! l( W2 |/ R) o
" g: O U8 {! e, |' N# Y: k
-------------------------------------------------------------
; c" `+ M. u1 C. O1 c& \ Standard Condominium1 z" s9 _3 }3 A
-------------------------------------------------------------4 c; N# L5 i# r- ^ n
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
% Q0 r; ~2 _0 V) O2 e( m Market % Change Average Average % Change2 ~! q2 L o8 @
-------------------------------------------------------------! }. C$ q/ C9 M4 C- ]; K) k
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
( c/ O8 K0 ^1 @1 ~) `6 q -------------------------------------------------------------
- E7 F9 H0 w7 c4 x) j, y Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%: J$ v+ G/ |* {* O ^
-------------------------------------------------------------
: \6 l; a B0 |7 L ? Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
. Z9 d d0 }: D' \, e -------------------------------------------------------------* \$ R. Q* o/ I; |4 d
Saint John N/A - - N/A5 P3 A. S/ A, q" v' U2 W
-------------------------------------------------------------5 m+ v& v+ H8 Z2 I2 t
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
: d. y% K* y o- h& `2 M- {0 O -------------------------------------------------------------
9 n& W& F* ~& q6 Q3 D' M& x# U# s( K Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
% N% K4 Z* T: R* m: i, T -------------------------------------------------------------
$ l5 `7 Q$ i, i( l0 ]' J' Q Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%6 q5 P6 ^1 H) z# Z1 J+ W a
-------------------------------------------------------------
0 _0 A# \0 Z$ q Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%. C' i0 w* f/ x1 X {! J- T
-------------------------------------------------------------
& P$ C2 \: h. C3 h Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%( K x# T) ?5 a" t( ]+ M- g) K
-------------------------------------------------------------
8 g* |% ?% P9 M4 S3 J Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%7 V( \1 c$ q& M0 K
-------------------------------------------------------------2 j9 O0 [+ ~- q8 {# D! q
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
* w" w# m# g" K3 C& I; V -------------------------------------------------------------
7 b4 ~' n- K- h7 g, v- W Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%3 |$ ^% X8 V/ W- j$ U$ F E
-------------------------------------------------------------( ]; S, j5 j7 `/ ?& @5 ]$ H4 O
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
1 v$ l, `+ z7 b2 h -------------------------------------------------------------, w6 }- D y& ]9 e3 n, R
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%: ]6 j! r% [. V# }# }
-------------------------------------------------------------
. Q& l( F3 @0 k U7 w5 ] Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%& z# U- v& L+ r0 `; x/ d
-------------------------------------------------------------; n, ?, B; O+ Z: H
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
7 d2 |7 a9 X# b( ~2 H0 o5 b -------------------------------------------------------------
3 B" i9 x" F" F >>
8 b, c7 j {) m' {0 y0 s: n$ u( i4 {6 d$ {' m
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined* w' V$ s3 D$ j% n7 f5 Z* u6 O" g4 c
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
; [5 W/ `8 H4 p6 G' z _John and Victoria.* ^6 I- H. b2 f* { _8 V
$ Q* s; `9 g" ], v1 o The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most( M) v$ M( p6 x4 G* M" S, z
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of& m) ?9 ^5 @1 k5 _! K3 l+ Y
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
' b& O. ?, L; Q& M, Breferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
, O8 U& P, c; Ftrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities ~$ q* K* [% R. h" @" T9 q& d/ T
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
" j1 C! U( r" K0 T- U& Savailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current j4 y( |- D" M1 p1 m6 x( `
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable/ B w; S$ Y' y) ?3 m f
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on2 _5 A5 |. c& ? J& ~9 I+ t
November 15, 2006.
' y( B; P6 ?$ G Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
/ D% X4 ^" Q# ^9 ffair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
1 M N4 T( V1 M' vprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is$ J0 N& g6 t2 \3 S& A
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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