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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
5 O' A6 ?# m0 r% g e$ u% ~9 w) x' @6 D
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -8 {" K# U7 y3 g { Z
' Z9 U c; D& k: ~8 @0 S+ u7 c& W7 G. r
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
4 y' J, b7 s5 ?- texhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
3 F y: B* M/ jquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic* J% w$ A- n) i: K' s
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit) J1 M+ d- j N# b9 r: Y# ]
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and1 N( R5 v! S) l8 h
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
/ E! O' U0 P0 ?4 _Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
$ C" f/ ^, L8 Q6 H% \LePage Real Estate Services.
$ E" d1 A" t# ~8 i
5 T, f* M4 Z% T3 u Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
7 i& E# X. l' i/ nare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic7 C* B" z/ O6 [0 W2 y) [% S4 b
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and0 L. X* ~# p2 ]
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
* q* |, |5 _' T" Rresidential real estate sector.( f1 ~* f3 z% g0 [5 X2 }
# ~! F8 d5 @, d# V" h Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation/ {+ H4 q1 b) c1 q
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%), H `. C! i6 r) \
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562: e- m& O5 v0 W+ Y: ?% b0 q
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
% ^% J% G: f+ [. B) e9 c(+13.2%).
$ O$ ^" I! a7 Q4 Z8 `0 I7 j6 d" C8 w% {# D$ W) e# z2 c! f) f
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
5 D8 {( x5 `4 ~' g6 g' {( V7 }during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the" k( H1 ?' y. B
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are! Z) P: Y* H! J3 G- J+ ~/ V
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,; t/ W& P& {, _8 F7 q
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.5 q& g7 {" Y! ?! g. }5 H
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We0 o% C1 \7 p+ Y/ g
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy6 i+ q0 H' Q$ @3 m# E
balanced market."
7 b) F6 I8 {6 p; `) U R+ o) a' I4 H( R
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
( V9 l/ b: @7 G% K$ a% Tconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift, O" s7 V+ I5 P% v7 I
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued$ s+ j4 k" y6 P+ d' w s
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
. ], ^( g6 k; s1 V" h; }energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
( B. O& s' q7 ?) ` Hmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record" x$ F( W/ E2 s$ d) c2 Z% W
breaking price appreciations.$ r' @; w4 B" j" C" u
- h6 @& ~$ s% \$ z# x5 p/ ]; { Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
% v+ P1 v. v9 ^/ feconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
$ I, M n \, vlargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
6 o, r3 a; y4 q3 G+ T
0 A% r* ^, y {1 Q2 b( H In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid* c. u" ]3 a S7 w
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer; T/ w1 v: i+ H) O' w& |9 \
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
# N s3 q* W4 z3 t6 M2 n: ]( Dslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.4 O! y/ x/ g, ~ a/ f1 h, p S
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
3 S9 k( e' K: m5 v" S3 P) [greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of5 ~$ I# C1 o& G5 f: j2 E0 D- u
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
5 L3 f% D, y* n7 _- n( ]3 K8 A2 s! S) n8 R
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing3 ^1 d3 ^0 P- m4 K, R
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
3 @. Q3 n6 V5 Z9 x- ]3 O C- efinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada a! X' z2 O" {
are markedly different than those found in the United States.
% I' |5 B y& P/ F4 Q" ?; v+ A/ l+ r3 G4 i5 S5 r
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
( W/ R. p2 R+ \) a% P2 @American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's k7 V# T9 l' c3 }: v( b5 ~& A
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the4 V) K d9 K) P: s! y* `3 M
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
8 f+ ?& z, g* C5 H3 v4 i- r3 Naffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
# _) V2 w. ]4 w; ldownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and) l% a* T+ U) }/ }
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization& s5 @, `6 Z1 e" W" I3 ]$ z* e6 i
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."' `: D j/ b6 h7 F
5 b/ |5 O1 M7 @ <<' D* T4 T$ J% `$ M7 Q7 J n
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
h! b$ R! L& }8 ^ r >>
5 h8 l+ p W) @, B: H" I* S" b- ^! i9 c! w6 O0 i3 E- v3 S( s
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in4 o6 G. `1 C& U0 T3 |: ]$ \
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate! L, ^9 I( u/ ?3 ]! f" }
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
/ n% I$ d }( |0 llooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
9 c2 r. h0 L; P& Q! \renovations.3 h) n1 q9 T7 Z# l! Y
# `& G4 @6 `& ?) C The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight2 K* T- T+ y& T
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
( Y+ o' \, _; ]9 Q! _3 h3 ]" E) B( L$ \; Lcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and0 b) ?1 {# X5 D' p2 f! r1 t
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
3 E% L; r B) Q0 [
" `- T+ N% u" H2 a The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
8 e+ A% C4 ~3 G4 c+ P5 wslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the( ^7 ~, o( e. p& K* K3 Q6 c: B
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new! s3 @* H8 }- w! J9 d, e
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores+ z4 p% m7 b2 S. z' K
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes/ Q# ?' M5 }* t3 q1 v! C
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
" P! ^# a( L+ j- y
- T* F6 _# j0 _) B% a0 z# R1 p In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
& r9 j& G! ?+ f! [" Z$ ~conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
# j) h+ X) F S1 K l, H. yhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers6 G; h. F2 f4 y* V
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian' C& }/ V' {' B! n& m/ u
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing: b7 ]* h! \7 [. y1 q
buyers with more options when looking for a home.0 F% D9 J) j8 M# D" c
9 M0 ?/ {, T* ^7 G1 i5 ^
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly9 \$ H8 _+ {+ W9 p7 F- @
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
) O7 R2 A' J. }3 c) e; c Ypriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,% I b4 c" o. g3 I
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
8 h7 e: g$ h# G9 j, M* Q% W2 x( Y- pfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.9 N0 R4 R$ o1 U- W
3 Z! D0 A$ r; V5 r- b9 c. N
Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house% l- }5 l0 o ]. g
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
% e4 X- K- O- B. Mlevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
$ j) i8 B+ R9 C, h2 P3 ofirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,/ |3 ~) o5 y+ E: k( j( B ^
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the# `/ u& P; }0 J4 d3 P2 Z* |
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before' |" u; t5 i8 }
making a purchase.- n2 l' m- e6 J$ \
) R [4 [0 r- k Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing( `/ i+ n1 f6 A _$ f
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
. {- T0 f2 e( fconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city2 ?- @+ x! i- r3 V
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
7 ]; k4 o. e2 K0 }attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown. I* f' |. H& i% u
amenities.
% v5 `$ x: e/ C' Y% e% d& Z% i- O1 r9 n# g
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
7 n' B: w: U1 z0 T' tthroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand4 S: V& @4 M K! Q! S- j! c
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
. O3 P* O1 z+ U. {* qcontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been8 z& l. J7 J( U* `
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
& B3 Q7 t# Z+ mresidence, rather than for investment.
* }( N- h8 ]! R( L& f
* q+ r8 k2 W' C5 V( Y" L The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
4 F4 d4 p3 b' S8 f" Z3 chouse prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
5 I# f) f% g' c! ^9 tin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
1 {# l8 s: d* h/ m. fconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization+ S3 ^9 G' ~, ] w8 n
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter) k, s- p/ _4 p8 p. u+ D$ j9 I
the market.: d3 T' b2 V3 M* y2 N
`4 n) t1 U# @0 r2 y3 I
In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through* L5 B5 ~. g& X1 L
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
7 Y' {8 p" P: W4 b3 C, }7 IAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring: p7 t2 `/ P6 q0 V9 i
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due; _, G* U0 ]4 T8 F% v: N/ z/ y
to the shortage of available inventory.+ T6 @$ y& \ e- v" N1 v( E O
+ d4 v/ ^" B( _( U7 g$ R, O$ \+ F* p
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its$ P$ x8 W' T, g0 [$ M7 B
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
H5 ^1 N7 t9 ^3 Uvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses/ j }; M$ ?6 k: R$ ^
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.$ c$ y, Y8 h0 p" k" s
, u0 ]8 H# \* ^( q" i( B0 @ Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
1 F% A3 S: x, h. ?in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low9 n" L( v' Q$ Z( m1 K
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
! O4 j' _' o. v6 `) s) [& {# Dpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring$ e/ _8 ^ F& z: W- t4 P
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
y/ i' a. G/ pseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as% _2 J6 B! J5 E* {$ Z
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.4 w; m% S0 x# b& {
& h4 o2 x; z0 p' M: }" H; ~3 C% ] Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter7 i D+ v) ?* g3 ~8 ]
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
9 a, a! O$ y1 s) R2 dremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
3 x! \$ v; w% T0 x0 ^' \# g% Smaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
! \1 o# `7 R9 L) }increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve/ `/ J+ `9 h3 T4 o+ h
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly; I; P# g( L. {9 j5 Z1 ]+ s1 B
towards the end of 2006.
' b2 w6 {6 o: A+ V
' f3 ?# Z- Q7 y# ]) NWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
( H0 [4 w8 t$ }% {5 ^( H8 @: ^2 d! kinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable# c( x9 Y. ^ Z
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
% S- i ^3 v/ L. S% C" mgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
* R, Q- d4 O1 A: G/ x2 hforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added. |+ k" E5 Z' D( y. S w
pressure on tight inventory levels.
' F) u) U' W5 ~/ ]7 `4 u: L( G7 |2 E2 w4 v
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
# {% }' _' @: F- t: g \fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
& y2 K# o/ I; b% P* F. A& u: xinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
4 ]5 ~: Q/ d' q3 L+ Pwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching# j! f8 V9 z5 ]+ ?6 A2 W
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
' J! k ? s0 t D' q
1 {+ t t# E/ g/ ^ <<
$ a7 U" M! y. q Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006" E7 D- `# t' k4 J4 G9 g8 H
6 _; \% S0 l( U8 E1 }; |/ C" V. j -------------------------------------------------------------------------
, y, V. `( z, g Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
. o. M& ^& |' K3 }9 V+ n5 C -------------------------------------------------------------------------9 c# V* H+ H! f1 y9 S
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3% B' G) ], |) d: C( n9 L
Market Average Average % Change Average Average4 }6 P- M2 E2 x, M) u7 \9 Y1 }
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
" y" q4 m+ F- P: f Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
9 X+ @/ V6 k$ Q4 w! u -------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 y; r7 O( e# S. @: { Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000- |3 Y4 J) m$ }3 B0 w
-------------------------------------------------------------------------9 {6 Q! }& T/ o; O" x+ g2 H
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,0006 ~, Q% y0 v6 R- t/ y9 {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
% R! @. w _: T) X& O4 {+ Y Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -- P$ \- F3 b' Y
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 V1 Q9 n' D7 l( s9 s7 L St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333" i( _* q% X* t6 m/ @1 K
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
, ~0 _" _" _7 Y' R Y Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
3 t- |; }0 T$ U/ [; H" `9 Z -------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ d- z& A1 J% A! D% S1 y- ] Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
( O0 l; @# N. x8 Z -------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ c6 B- m/ g8 M* R# F O Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
) l! R3 n5 }; K& l4 l -------------------------------------------------------------------------& H4 f2 a1 H8 l, z6 H; K9 I2 n
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
3 a, ^$ {" L. q -------------------------------------------------------------------------
% }7 G* E# W! U* K, G Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
3 |. n; d8 ]$ @% B; h* U -------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 i7 F: }3 p$ g9 T2 L5 p Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,5007 c6 i% f# s0 c% k/ |5 U
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ J2 E' k% c( h$ N8 ^ Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,3891 ~3 ~2 L4 F& o- U# B
-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ n" l$ G; O9 z0 v1 A# Y9 D
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
9 m2 ?5 Q$ H1 t! V0 ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------! ]2 x# I. m6 @) z$ f
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500; u0 z( P1 A3 g: L
-------------------------------------------------------------------------" `1 i; b& G- n
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
) V3 U* j b' w$ G$ {4 N7 ^ -------------------------------------------------------------------------2 h8 X0 ~5 F" ]" x; e
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
" W" S( G `% E6 C; q( @( N ~6 _$ Y -------------------------------------------------------------------------, P0 b' n8 V% I
5 m9 C! ?* H' D+ P7 {
-------------------------------------------------------------
# L3 O! s! J7 Q6 E Standard Condominium# @6 h6 y9 }( `$ q' A
-------------------------------------------------------------
7 Z# y: Z$ |1 P2 g* g4 j9 y% w 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo6 ^3 j* }# p7 h0 z5 D$ Y
Market % Change Average Average % Change4 `" c- a/ ` t( M
-------------------------------------------------------------4 h2 o c6 T! S! a
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%; i n& I- \/ ]% ?
-------------------------------------------------------------
3 P% l. Q+ @9 Y Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%. j' b/ c- j1 _0 v
-------------------------------------------------------------0 _% g; ^6 p7 g8 {2 ?( @; `
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A9 g, \( Y- Z4 w& _+ g
-------------------------------------------------------------
- E8 n& O; r' c: B% q2 \ Saint John N/A - - N/A. c8 u; k( g7 d: z- J/ J
-------------------------------------------------------------
+ t( A, ~9 b. \" { St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%( w* E4 v3 u' w: }4 F
-------------------------------------------------------------
! ]7 Q e/ Z( p4 z Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
0 D/ N# v3 U! v8 j5 U1 e, K! O -------------------------------------------------------------
, U7 [ c- `$ K Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%, }5 i1 @, d; w3 a; q
-------------------------------------------------------------$ d6 d( o& T& W# b5 d+ o
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
$ c% ]$ v0 \- P" \9 T; z' g% Z' g* f -------------------------------------------------------------. m- L5 c$ m4 C) _9 V& ]! f
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
" t" A9 j4 [5 e3 _. V -------------------------------------------------------------9 K2 i$ Y" E# S, U, r
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
* j( M9 ^3 U! p -------------------------------------------------------------* L G; d$ A! T, F9 X3 R2 |
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%& E2 n/ J; D0 u9 R* e
------------------------------------------------------------- J. u& h0 W5 r# k
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
# `1 `; r# x' a" m* ] -------------------------------------------------------------
. q9 t- i) C& Z v Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
! \$ w# C2 G# k7 X0 b -------------------------------------------------------------
# M2 f. U7 r, n5 C Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%/ R3 ]: |8 I( l; S* r J
-------------------------------------------------------------4 w7 G3 s; X8 T& ]. [
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%3 o! [; N! u0 D# q6 _3 |' c
-------------------------------------------------------------
* Z+ ]% N3 ]$ c3 u' ] National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%1 q2 O5 b" _" S; A. C6 m
-------------------------------------------------------------# T8 G! l# ^3 d* V2 w
>>
0 I6 ]4 l0 h. Q* ]0 d) Q' b
) }0 L; c6 o; V5 J6 I& G Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
/ `/ O! H1 ^2 pin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint9 I; I U2 ~8 z5 T! C) J; e3 {
John and Victoria.
! y( V/ j1 r, `, y6 F! i# z
& T6 z$ U( S. v$ N The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most9 a, n' _4 ~. A J9 u) E9 N7 \
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
# S/ T, t) J% @ ~7 w* I% R+ Bhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release' m( @4 m& C/ z) i
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price0 d/ K! }% u1 ^; p: c4 \5 ~1 E
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
. ~5 R! n/ q: f5 N; [across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
% {& F% V2 ? e2 S0 Iavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
' d5 q* g; u/ j9 @1 |( D) v# kfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
8 Q6 I1 t0 L5 g7 {* i1 w' v6 hversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
: s( N6 G# H' x) xNovember 15, 2006.) u5 R, H) h) m. F" S/ ^" q
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
- O/ G# t. G. p. X5 e6 r- \+ Z8 wfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
- ^& Y2 n5 i4 _provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
7 O5 s4 p# `9 Z2 O# K8 _" savailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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