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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
$ y5 B5 Z- t+ q- i$ e$ k( N( Q/ O- P: t6 Q4 B8 T1 R$ |7 \9 D# H0 V
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -: d0 k: V" z* [4 u* F, m8 q. A% R
+ ~$ y' P, }) Y
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market6 S5 D# O% X3 n: L& C2 s* K
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
/ _7 I$ N# h# |1 Y- nquarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
% O; e9 }8 Y" s( C* v% J6 Jin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
2 I4 a, h+ ?; f9 g8 dprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
* g! c" C% A; U1 W* N8 a! F$ amore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,$ A" _. Y2 X, x) w) _% f
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
! j# M) E( \2 c% K( s/ SLePage Real Estate Services. u/ _4 z. l f9 \: M6 v
, D/ j- p% S; K' Z3 x( L2 S
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
" n5 R# m% @; i+ I% pare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
$ {2 J$ {$ u2 g k- [conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and1 W4 X5 r: {- G# Z
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
# c4 `8 f- K. z/ e8 ]0 E$ s# aresidential real estate sector.
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Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation3 q# q [6 [* {* }, Y
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
" D: M/ o9 h; A! u9 _year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562) i$ {" Q& a7 N4 y) Y. Q6 u, I
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,3807 d( V, u1 k% L- [( P* n
(+13.2%).
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"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
( \3 F7 j# B! E% D H: eduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the# ? H0 d, c: m4 f3 c0 k; V
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
! |; Q; l% V Spoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,2 A9 T% N! ~- ]6 }$ O8 r
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.- I/ t6 j8 E, g
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
) `2 ^! T+ k5 D: R: r7 u0 ?/ Rwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
( m* k( Y5 s4 M: Dbalanced market."
' n. ~' |+ h# O8 @( e5 N! n7 j, q8 a ]
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
) B& Z6 C& |! ~! `# A, `2 ~$ ~considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift$ |" ]( t( I' K S, s+ h! s; Q! M: f
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
( `( C) N. d& Fthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core+ s& C/ j9 H% l! `! ^! P- ~; U+ S' @
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,) R# [% j! T9 v9 Z+ t
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
) }+ @1 g( I# ebreaking price appreciations.
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Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
3 t V8 X4 D. w, P8 Seconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
7 U& x) v8 @" l2 t9 F% z3 Wlargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.- h8 x+ {% `1 q9 t
9 L/ S! V/ x" @+ s9 V
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
1 n4 G7 i4 r" ?) L1 A% s/ teconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
) w# y* z: ~3 i' }, Uconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off1 G+ L( o3 e/ t& l' q8 S
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.% f) V- l1 V! D6 d& T& q* n6 i
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers# F. v! [* A# V0 ~. \
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of# r1 z8 ~4 a3 W- @& q& q3 P
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
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5 p2 `; ^. [, ]; o6 } A While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing& Q: C+ q" E: N: I3 v# p
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
) o* U, {" `' h& ~financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
! g# ~$ ~+ d3 o: N, Q) m9 oare markedly different than those found in the United States.
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Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
0 \5 D3 j: h- T7 V6 v- q% U XAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's3 R6 ` d, Y! M4 j6 \# w5 f
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
, r& x/ w0 X4 b3 Q" C# O# b* {% k0 vrelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
& P& V; x4 I% C. `) H) F) daffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the3 |& _+ T S2 J0 y" H" A
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
) p. K! I2 l, f' [$ p# b( G+ Q5 Haggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
, Q. o8 h: m( _/ ^7 D8 Xmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."6 n) x9 k8 R3 I
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<<$ K6 R- r& G1 @9 ]8 P! V% H) P
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
9 A8 R+ }+ y! a2 uHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
( x3 y* I. T) S4 ]$ Dof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time; F" M0 s& d( l( [
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of. X, C. F3 z! r7 P4 z/ d7 D+ \
renovations.2 A1 n5 e/ x0 Y$ q+ N0 Y( I
4 u+ g6 A# j+ L% X
The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight2 Q1 T6 o+ M8 Z) ]" p9 U8 j3 j
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation! q* C3 o6 p( U Y8 c9 ]- }6 u$ `* Y
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
L6 B6 e+ v7 m2 z3 lSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.& ~& c I; I4 t7 R0 n
/ }) Y3 \% Q$ w1 M The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
' U" e' @ i- y+ s, z$ nslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the$ f) Z3 V. z* S' E, d& M
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new' k/ T# t$ j! a# B3 @1 U8 I' X4 w
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
/ c, R2 P* L% A7 \+ v3 g6 _to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes9 a5 `1 ?: F) O$ x% r- u
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
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In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
, z4 g8 k/ Y5 ?" Fconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
, V& A! d' [! v. z2 w# `/ z) Xhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers) ]6 h3 c# o+ F2 P- a
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian& w2 W% J2 ^; R7 b. F3 ]
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
% a5 Z1 b0 `1 A8 G' y+ ?$ Dbuyers with more options when looking for a home.
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! t0 H' C( a! j3 @* t @ Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
8 S: h* M6 |; Z. _5 n' Oamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
- b+ e5 l1 J- M8 z! {priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,7 C% P X' W) b; f! t, V1 p
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
9 P8 e: L. F! ~% q3 gfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions./ O ^. Z2 G' j( B, I
' l0 G2 {6 l8 t2 Y Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house# h2 ~( B( P2 C& x1 |0 Z
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
- k6 z6 H, `) g. X4 Ulevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
W/ B- O9 f- Q0 |first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,' t* p1 G+ q6 l* S
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the; o9 I7 e8 O4 Y* x g4 Q* I
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before4 E3 Y+ _' T6 V1 Z
making a purchase.
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; H% _0 Y2 z8 T5 |# W2 g5 @4 l Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
9 n* S0 M9 z# d) m+ \% kmarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
& W) k4 f9 {% V- I+ Hconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
2 t1 P4 p) ~3 ocentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting4 j& @- l6 J [) _; s' u2 z
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown& o# C. n- ^5 ^9 |3 t. S/ H' `
amenities.9 e* g/ v# j/ z0 A1 ~+ C
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The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
! m3 V) H) n3 x. f4 T4 C) N9 b/ fthroughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
3 a# J; J! L6 T! r) _( yacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
8 t' K3 s& i( j9 R) U2 L) D" Scontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been8 _. m5 ?' k% {' u3 P
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle& I. N( ?9 e& G6 ^# G0 s) @; ]8 ]
residence, rather than for investment.! s- W% c" F: M) ~6 d) K
" E" R$ Q" b, j8 R The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as* r1 @2 H1 F: j* Y& U) A
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted% M% ]. W, ^$ G9 W) e
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
% Y* Q" p) z9 F4 sconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
. f" K5 t# A4 O/ A& l, vrate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
. U5 K" i+ v! q; ^4 x% o# k. l3 }: p; nthe market.
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# F( C' I' Z" e+ H In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through$ `+ E) V9 O! N+ Q1 V' r
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
) y; B# f. N7 O1 ZAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring+ w7 E5 d: Y- i* c
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due$ |+ {' e: K* ?0 k
to the shortage of available inventory.1 g' ^% Z! }0 `
9 m- b# W, K- Z# t, |; H. L. P Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its: y" |$ p% k$ w3 b+ I
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
! M e$ `1 Q- Mvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses- ` p6 P$ p* i- r- C
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
+ J: x' f( K0 x) z3 r6 k4 ]* w% f( m6 X7 a9 f, O1 I) {
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
) e$ ^" `: q B0 Sin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low
1 {9 \: a! t: m4 @' b0 |unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
& V5 \5 ]0 i8 u" B4 }" W( wpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring0 }2 ~3 v1 ?% u6 f' l& B7 B3 L
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
, G0 s4 d% G+ [3 C% t. c) F% u" lseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as7 T2 l3 D( |# J" P* v
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.' B4 j, s/ p* s9 M
& ^/ B+ q. G' N1 j+ ?. G" F
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
) `" \/ Z/ u/ Y1 Xas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
! q1 n/ u! X7 ?- W+ N6 \1 jremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,+ l# k% l6 h/ U+ d* n' z
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices3 ]4 [) R0 V% K
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve+ B, k# @0 v+ _
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly+ l/ h7 ]3 E- ^/ f
towards the end of 2006. / x4 C/ I+ ]* }" U0 I1 H
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While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
2 V5 }. n P3 D* p5 `0 _1 vinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable$ e$ i# K" Q) f! n- H, A* a" Y" ?0 m
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
% q! m& L4 n5 Dgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
! W$ _% i8 u6 z8 A" y8 N) Aforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added: {0 {: s( Y% g' J3 |% P% ]
pressure on tight inventory levels.0 O4 r9 f) l" c l# `% J0 X
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Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
* r* V- ?$ E1 c6 |8 B0 r$ w- rfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
+ [* F( k, q# xinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;+ a P, P/ B* K" j
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
" {1 O" @2 B; s' pfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
9 k2 e5 \1 {/ g! m
8 } Y0 G( D# T, D3 z5 o9 S <<
& w7 Q& d9 N- d: D" g+ N Q Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006" ]" Q- P! D/ V& @) J1 C$ ?
2 A& S7 S6 Q4 h, S -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* f7 E& t4 C4 m3 b6 v( R$ @: |: D Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey/ n+ f6 {0 _' @6 M) r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------% K% [! L6 v& ]; W: C- X- @$ E
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q39 t, W& Y, d( l# ^" ^
Market Average Average % Change Average Average
" o( J, e+ ?: r. U" t+ h8 L -------------------------------------------------------------------------
, K- A3 {4 G9 H4 ?( e; D' T Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
% O. A" N* [+ e) R+ y/ _ -------------------------------------------------------------------------. O' v8 Y- {! i" J L" C1 c! q
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
. c- A6 F/ U5 i) `, M -------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 r( ~1 S+ X2 a3 P S, i Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
2 T8 H4 L" [9 J1 B# J, ?$ T -------------------------------------------------------------------------" D2 k7 N, B0 W& U" @
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
9 R$ f3 A$ ?. r4 q1 _, b6 u. j -------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ S) H) w8 ]% ]# @% U St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333/ z% ~' V! j1 p( Y' y! \
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
' ~! c2 y3 I+ _" B6 T: Q Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583& z' N7 Q- q5 }5 Z% b. S& B
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 i$ b( m4 x3 X/ i5 G, L) v' B Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
# ? G0 J4 z" c) f) P( ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------0 M! d0 L3 Q3 N' C6 T+ k5 Z8 f
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250, _6 Z$ J) x) q* C" d: p
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
; Q: M# d" t5 d2 G/ ~; \ Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766/ v3 r4 A# r: ]2 {6 n: \, ~
-------------------------------------------------------------------------' T9 _# Z3 `- R% k* s
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
8 D8 t4 ]( m" y r2 M6 J" l: n -------------------------------------------------------------------------
; J C5 ?3 \" B& F) \* w ~3 g Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
( b, g2 Y* d: W8 o3 W. O& h# r -------------------------------------------------------------------------/ W: `. P3 z; q& c% X# _3 F6 Z
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,3890 F9 v! \1 ^ S" _( h
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
: e0 Q4 r! {6 A. p0 R% s Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,7144 A; F# Y1 I4 M4 p$ z, r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------$ O+ z) v( `1 k, \
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500( m7 }2 p6 u% X! r1 g8 e4 d
-------------------------------------------------------------------------" M2 @+ K, C# D) a7 F; b( g
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,0008 I! @) |% M1 q$ D
-------------------------------------------------------------------------4 H: m! t: B/ F6 p, O# p
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860, e6 w# m, W$ w' i8 G+ ]0 x& J
-------------------------------------------------------------------------$ s+ y# B# N( \1 e* f2 C
8 I1 W: z7 }6 I, m! b, M/ F -------------------------------------------------------------
0 ^1 M, o. H# O8 j! J1 H Standard Condominium0 d$ K# ^. J3 f- f+ H3 s
-------------------------------------------------------------7 x( Z c6 d1 l3 M( d* y
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
; L* Q# h9 t: A' a; T5 h Market % Change Average Average % Change$ l z2 A! X0 ]# X. z
-------------------------------------------------------------0 ?- m! q- T: v& i2 V
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
) n$ d& }+ Y. \0 ~; l: ^; \ -------------------------------------------------------------
3 F) \$ i! E; i0 N/ J f# o! m' z Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
8 L5 h% a+ g" P8 I -------------------------------------------------------------
& {( Q) ^+ e* f Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
* D3 h! l4 \" O T8 T. g -------------------------------------------------------------
) t) r5 o" V# Y! [3 h6 M& R' g7 y; g Saint John N/A - - N/A; L8 \ d2 B) t+ L7 u( d
-------------------------------------------------------------7 T% _7 M3 y( N. i% w* f- E
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%* s9 w o! X1 S+ ^
-------------------------------------------------------------
6 i f0 H+ F+ z" [# `. w% b$ w Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
1 e; P2 G# n! X% x% | -------------------------------------------------------------
% p0 a! O% x% v- f# e0 ?% } Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%+ p% D+ d" c: H" W* u
-------------------------------------------------------------3 z. y9 _# v* X# }8 f
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%" P) l' v2 c2 l J5 q
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 p7 z* V" o1 r. W1 V Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
4 \; A0 Q/ y/ c! f- @7 V' [. v m -------------------------------------------------------------
& M5 O% K) T1 I, g5 U( L4 S Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
`' _5 F" \" q; q6 R$ E% N -------------------------------------------------------------
. f* N6 x x2 V Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
) ^1 X6 i |2 W, p" N5 a4 \* h4 | -------------------------------------------------------------
5 n% ~+ A. w) V8 @/ u Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%% f* ], t1 r+ O& z/ h$ a
-------------------------------------------------------------8 }. [+ N" ?3 l2 {6 ?
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%' q3 ~: Z1 A) V! G v. y. C
-------------------------------------------------------------
0 X4 Y# i0 L6 r$ }) N7 ~# N1 X Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%- v _" y. s9 T. w8 w0 \
-------------------------------------------------------------, \! \1 Z- n- a
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
! p5 K6 N- V% E$ c- D$ W -------------------------------------------------------------
% w0 w- e6 |3 @( \7 E" o1 K! i National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
0 D; @! t9 I6 h9 W -------------------------------------------------------------% B1 J' j2 d) D- o9 n1 z
>>
7 {8 M- h9 \: t( [; b% v4 D. r' K
b% P3 ?2 N2 d3 ?$ v T6 M( d ~ Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
, a. z7 [1 c6 z2 \# gin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint5 K( \1 b; W) H; |+ E
John and Victoria.
( Q% q& w R* |; k4 _ R
$ \ L; K# y0 J& L The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
+ _1 I. V) f: U1 {9 W9 V5 H2 P3 Bcomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of; N7 ], C5 C- ]; c6 G9 j
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release+ K% u9 y! V' {7 }3 q* A2 n
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
& ^/ [5 p0 n0 z D Mtrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
$ e8 l- J8 E* ]' macross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is$ {) ^& ~% _ E$ {
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
+ j) O/ B: a0 Vfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
) ?& e% f9 S; S/ w6 Sversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on! \4 P1 H2 [& \7 K
November 15, 2006.
4 E; [/ e$ R; z) S0 S# [7 Z Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
& W) l& O7 C* L/ kfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge- R. Y+ Z. m! l2 G/ }0 h: ~
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
* d. W$ E$ m; ~3 @) k6 wavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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