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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
, }6 b' _/ ]" K3 S- h, G1 n
* _: S+ S) B% k! n- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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L. f* D4 k( A( x, D TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market0 h4 f- @7 F6 i7 b$ h5 m7 J c
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third1 o/ s. f+ o0 Z0 T
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
' ]! h; Y* n& e3 P& G1 `in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
6 c( k+ g; `& E/ fprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
( j" h d1 y5 O. ^4 Dmore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
7 C7 j, A; y9 j0 o5 N8 ?+ m/ yQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal! x% C3 L2 A0 r$ X
LePage Real Estate Services.. M9 {6 v6 _, Y1 ]- |$ @
. ^5 ~# I) ^% h8 l' r
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
) a4 e' c9 s' t0 ]5 R( |0 b* L% y$ Oare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
, o0 ]* j2 H/ u4 s# q1 Bconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and2 H# g- j. G$ F0 q% S
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the, D- i( s. k* Y. k
residential real estate sector.
" v* Y" Y$ _: q# L& h3 o
( M* k8 k2 a( q! S1 s Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation7 X- b% u" a" c0 S5 y
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
5 d8 t* \) g J: b3 J4 b2 w1 s' pyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562+ I6 F R( H/ }, A# Q( t
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
) L$ `/ m4 q# a' ](+13.2%).& _2 U) c, E* `
1 S; u8 M5 N! n8 S
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
- b2 d& N6 ?% ]' xduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
4 j6 k# q4 w" B% q3 t4 t2 cfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
* {5 ^5 x. s8 {poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,. C$ F" E `8 N4 I
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
' {1 }0 U: r/ B% [+ Y* I"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
0 C8 n7 h6 C8 H; N/ Z! Owelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy. u7 p6 H2 q2 G c* b
balanced market.", m3 ?9 Y R& [( V
: K- G& N z( j6 ]" I( s
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
, e; V4 B% H+ E3 u( {$ s4 U" Tconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift5 n* p! d+ j2 i9 `9 `
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued% B: S0 ], j* q0 x' z! i) O
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core3 [- W+ K9 t( _6 ~' N
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,7 l4 U; K9 I k" N% \1 N/ v8 w
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
9 R4 ^" [) R V6 H8 rbreaking price appreciations.
; j1 a- t/ e" o, l' L7 O: l# b7 A# N$ X2 n/ j3 x+ c3 w
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
+ J! x8 r j) a) k7 zeconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
4 t( i0 ^7 t+ X ylargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
& }( ~. W3 B3 s. r' I% ~
+ ?( {. Q* t; F, _% b" h7 [7 p% C In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
! U+ s _4 H5 V* neconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
8 l$ e7 b6 {5 @7 Z+ Y6 _confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off) C2 ^0 i* \; e8 N
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
( x4 T- s6 f4 S, }3 K( SIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
( v# p" L' c7 I( ogreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of g8 D) y* B+ d1 f) u
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
) ?6 T& V1 W# T
, T* F- `/ }0 i) n& y( T% ]# S While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing$ y4 j+ i6 P4 S( ~4 g v+ G
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and$ k! ~3 e I1 k9 n4 F; b" ~( I. u
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada% i# K) _0 A+ X8 Q8 K
are markedly different than those found in the United States.
" P' d3 U2 x& B7 _' P+ _9 i
) r) B. x6 R- T& E Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
0 [6 m! x, L: u8 QAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
4 X9 |2 t8 _9 Z1 E. F; K" ] ufavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
7 t7 b# H" q) H1 }" a' r% Lrelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general# U! o/ \' m" r+ E0 C( b
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
, a8 _- O8 I* {! rdownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and" L7 s8 y% D2 {. L e, C+ q7 W
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization. p6 K3 ^, F4 U+ S J0 s! Y' J
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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$ _0 V+ }) O) m0 h: D( x <<
# q3 E) d* D) R7 x3 g$ n REGIONAL SUMMARIES8 q8 t6 I1 V, c' P6 f- s
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
8 a& A5 T# Y' O7 Z, h& QHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
- V& V- e ^( w3 Yof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time' M6 s1 f% b' [1 u3 t% M. q0 j
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of: q( [: X. H( G8 T5 U5 W
renovations.# I. ]9 u9 a" v# M# z5 `
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The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
7 K8 B/ n0 V/ S+ L1 _. `7 \( ?increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation" g" d }! E+ N) B2 \# n
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and) g* A/ Y) v4 M& y: p" g
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
{( ]0 ]5 E% n) M7 c _* ], A5 \: o5 g/ X
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer: D7 j b1 j U; v+ t7 [
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
2 y% w3 x, f8 ^' j2 e2 d5 nquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
/ ^2 S/ O" a: a* P2 C3 O- p8 q600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
( I" y9 h: n, C! I0 W! y8 Fto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
; L) n: U' I3 t2 Jand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
! A* A% S) i& |4 e
4 w" z4 Y+ R- L+ y8 f In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced. ~) M4 y6 _9 \7 l
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
* u4 J1 C. n- K/ y r. v6 ehomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
1 q: h) D- n& W/ S, Q' Y; r2 qwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
. Q( x; _$ G) f. H$ S$ ?% ydollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing! x& C" W/ P! V" I2 c
buyers with more options when looking for a home.
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- B! j8 c: `$ q. U4 P Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly) D4 Z1 n# c$ u( _/ w% G. b
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes) P, l( n/ \& \
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
- o& _, Q6 k' u% R" |as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
6 P/ g/ h ?% H6 Z" Pfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
1 ]4 b3 k [; Q$ l& \
/ ]) J' |$ L, i2 [$ O Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house" C K6 I- u- t% n
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
, [# f1 p( @, q9 y! V, glevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
4 G) ~' K2 x: g; G- l8 nfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,: ~* _3 u$ W/ _+ M2 c$ I
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the. ~! ?2 \$ \# t5 r$ x! e5 i
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
9 @3 H2 R- D! O, r2 r- z! k/ } omaking a purchase.. q- V' w# @! W- _7 ~9 s
8 O# a+ ?; v' V% P- c2 A$ D q/ _ Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing! F# I5 W; Z- U) C
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
% H M4 j3 z5 y n8 Q/ Cconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city* B+ H( D( e+ a, _, x
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting1 j+ X$ B6 r& d; Y/ w. Y" H
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
/ ?' R7 \4 F, U: M8 _5 b) C& oamenities.
6 B6 y S4 T* o0 ?9 l1 Z) M1 v( P# j! ~* ]5 I
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels" z" i, [' k* p' s& r
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand( R x5 H8 d$ U
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
% `* j: D8 k& C* \1 x* icontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been( \* p3 i- `" z+ I
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle+ ^# Q% n0 `1 ?# m/ q
residence, rather than for investment.3 b0 l# w2 `7 ]5 ?" d, q
( M" K* G4 l8 E The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as9 e. t4 v6 J A. M
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
/ m% H+ t* m. @2 iin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
" F) G7 M4 `0 b' S1 Gconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
5 ^ X8 P" C2 q9 E5 v4 u* Mrate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter, \& r+ A* z2 o- z |3 A* N
the market.
) r2 C: j& J# L% ~/ r' t3 z6 ^) j: E6 i- T$ s$ G# B7 u. q5 L
In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
+ ^4 k/ p- p8 dJuly, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
6 L5 }3 Z( Z- h. F1 AAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
5 g; [% J/ l( [ z) b& Ymonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
1 U* v" D( @' p# c5 Gto the shortage of available inventory.& m5 }; z& t) S- ]
1 F. ^1 T" K: d, C: F
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its# M* F+ \7 d% j) h
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
/ Y2 h; u$ ^4 x+ |0 ^+ ]/ ~; |" Fvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses! l( r5 W; d3 `: ?0 O
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.1 S6 c. \+ ~, z
! w A/ M" \! K0 m Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases7 ?. O/ }3 j- q
in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low- W2 ]7 N! T' M# V9 t
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that- ]* d% s% d1 L1 p
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring* A. Y2 B {7 P0 a4 S* g
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
8 P; j! {( e/ r- Q, `5 D) l* m1 U6 Dseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
6 l1 ]* t" c4 [0 `+ K( p Pbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity. X) \6 L' x3 t' v" O8 ~ K
# I( N5 G4 q/ x& F' W9 E" w
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter: e/ g/ I5 T5 Z: m
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton! K9 f: ~3 x+ X% J8 L2 I
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,3 z+ V( a# S, }( N2 Z+ s' u& m
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
# K$ D/ U% d! m* x* z" Jincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
) u6 X" v. c; s% L# l+ @) P8 bin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
* x) W$ Z2 H# q; Htowards the end of 2006.
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While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
( }4 X7 D. |7 Y- g: {$ Yinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
+ D3 ? H }; Xto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
- l0 Y# B; b/ G5 U* p" m8 fgroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to( V N- Y! I0 Z
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added. D3 c& t) q- U: v5 s8 u
pressure on tight inventory levels.: s' o1 R) \: T+ {3 E- p' s9 S1 m
7 s! I' @* p1 y
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
6 T$ k: O0 l9 }fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
# W, e. V. t' {9 w: Xinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
& U' o9 m8 R C8 ~# uwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
3 O9 |! h/ s9 ?1 f' \7 b' ~for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
5 s; K( d1 T8 Y* w7 ~% q
. C& x+ W) ?% p <<1 D8 Z: D; t, v, @& M$ q! j) n
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006. z6 K. I: `2 [. O
7 B( n R9 l k3 j) h+ {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------" C! V; S3 R9 C0 R
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
* C. k2 v& ?0 |3 y -------------------------------------------------------------------------0 `! z% v' G8 Q6 C D+ v3 q/ k
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3! k6 X- ~/ S" p* `6 s; V' {
Market Average Average % Change Average Average
- Y) |1 e% j" w& u! g, O2 g# X -------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ y% M6 F( m3 z Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000. ^, ?0 R o2 f' m& ~
-------------------------------------------------------------------------0 X/ }1 s# o' w5 p, {# m4 i
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000! O Q5 O: K9 O$ ~' z/ \: |# B
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
, ^3 v# c' R4 {4 S% z7 b6 X Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000! s. B H- e7 q t3 ~4 Z! p L
-------------------------------------------------------------------------& V" N8 y& N4 \0 y" @' \6 o, c l
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -$ ~+ ~2 Z: J, r! o3 V" c; K
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 R m+ P" \, ]! T St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
- ~0 ]. K- n9 X1 E- c -------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ G+ t# U& a: z/ a Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,5832 X1 ~. Z. e9 i/ q9 b: W) X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------. R2 d5 Y, L. D7 E+ R
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
1 K1 J C6 M1 x7 @; p2 x9 H -------------------------------------------------------------------------+ X, D' P6 c5 H1 }
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250 `! m" Q, `, E6 n
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
e y" ?) U \ Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766% m P% K/ k4 R# g" M/ C) {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------0 P8 ], d2 X; C+ h( K3 v6 Y4 V
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
; M# n) y" N1 }0 L2 n! t7 c -------------------------------------------------------------------------
: o6 n* G/ {- o2 O" N- i$ I Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
+ ?" O$ o: Z0 W2 H; c. y% k -------------------------------------------------------------------------
- z$ B2 p, b$ l8 G3 M. ? O1 ] Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389+ L& s0 x! }2 J3 H
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 z+ H: R' K* F. T9 p1 b Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714, T; w6 l) |% C: o& h0 G
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ Q* W+ H/ ]5 S, o, y8 j L Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
4 G f' f+ x" I; \ D -------------------------------------------------------------------------: s/ L2 z* Y$ L/ c+ f" z/ X9 k+ g
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
, J) K' J2 x2 J% E -------------------------------------------------------------------------
; C. l0 Q7 }( k( [6 U National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,8600 C1 a7 z+ t2 i: V* Z
-------------------------------------------------------------------------: ^/ _. Q% r8 C2 i4 l( w3 C
/ _' w- h4 [* E -------------------------------------------------------------, R6 ?" X/ y" q# Y3 ?6 m5 c+ G5 y
Standard Condominium
& b3 |; E# }! _" n2 S -------------------------------------------------------------
( w" ^% q. M; c/ G( y% U 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo& ~% y" a1 w% G, q1 C6 x8 S7 K* C
Market % Change Average Average % Change% u. l+ z! s6 S4 s9 \
-------------------------------------------------------------6 z" Q8 }5 ^3 d! |
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
; O7 x9 T. i0 s; y Y0 N -------------------------------------------------------------$ Z# u1 x# }" ~5 |- S% {
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
- c& d+ q' ?- T -------------------------------------------------------------) u: o/ W! H1 t5 Z8 {5 l6 H' P
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
# n4 i* B8 \6 I6 J: `7 ^1 G0 m -------------------------------------------------------------
$ f2 C" r* h- m4 V4 P Saint John N/A - - N/A
5 x/ `( z1 l& u4 m; a -------------------------------------------------------------
& f1 i$ c0 e1 v1 |! t7 ]* U U St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%! a% [! l" O. D4 D9 V
-------------------------------------------------------------
& t5 Y2 J% ]9 q5 z: L/ B& f Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%6 C1 O& ^. K* ~. \# o
-------------------------------------------------------------$ r3 P0 ~9 P* y9 _5 P3 {
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
0 X, P& M& r0 t! \! N( W -------------------------------------------------------------
' S) g4 T: ^: T- k0 o$ Y( L2 T Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%0 o/ {8 ]1 H% k4 n4 t, d/ m
-------------------------------------------------------------& p# d! ^- v% b8 ]! G# ~) F
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
- Z/ Q7 g$ @) }. M$ u/ W6 q6 E -------------------------------------------------------------
; x2 @5 _1 G% l. B2 {1 a! P Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
# C. V' p0 Y* h- m3 @ -------------------------------------------------------------
. Z! J4 \" s2 N: d) Z) K Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
, G2 c. q- M0 e5 ` -------------------------------------------------------------
+ `% p6 V1 u! F% N- M* P Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
& t+ |2 b3 W. a2 d -------------------------------------------------------------/ W, \2 c; N B7 _ W1 z& C
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
$ z C( b* P# W7 {- j* O3 L -------------------------------------------------------------
$ a; ]+ o9 p& i7 `' q( p' w& a0 p Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
3 [; x' M& ^4 K. o' \- [9 L; F9 K$ F -------------------------------------------------------------
& X" ~) R% e6 G! ` Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
: P" W8 `) c3 ?0 n -------------------------------------------------------------+ O7 f7 N. U, {8 A! q- {" D
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
+ r8 ]( M( |4 I. S# R) w0 P -------------------------------------------------------------
+ H3 U5 j, p w; D >>
+ n) \' o! g# v
. h+ H9 g: y% S Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
- O. s" v8 T* U/ G0 C: y; |1 j! Iin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint& b% f5 _' C" M3 N
John and Victoria." ]7 ~- B/ b$ S' L" s
3 e; J B( m/ ~
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most- b5 G9 ?, W5 _5 P; @" i) E/ t
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
7 B5 ^1 S( V- `: l, \" U# P T4 A: ?0 xhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release X; g% p, q3 c
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price; k! g: ~$ b# z# S/ O9 U8 R
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
7 P P( L$ Z/ a0 C' Uacross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
, M! [7 U. \( b lavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
4 I, F) U. N0 q# p2 k" k& p1 ofigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable$ z3 r _! l5 p7 }( A0 f5 ^5 H
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on; C9 n& Q0 P$ [0 k `3 c
November 15, 2006.+ x; h" j- u" v( g
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
8 y* h; S9 h0 |, |1 C1 Jfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge5 ~ V$ U7 o$ D* |. B. X
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is/ I$ {3 \& G: N4 N8 _* J4 d
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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