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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
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- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -! R/ m$ r2 g" T* V/ r$ o% C
' j" C8 F- K2 D. {0 z% P' b$ W TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market, R: f0 N9 [8 G0 u0 r' {
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third, J, d' U1 {, C3 K1 p
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic. b2 k& M, T6 j; ~/ w, f
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
& c- x) w" \% u; @! d1 b7 Uprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and# P! @& A7 A# Y( }
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,% ~. w4 }$ s% z. |3 Q8 o
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
+ `4 J7 \3 T3 M, `- n' a% `LePage Real Estate Services.
% q; q* h/ x1 @' T
3 J9 a1 n q5 R( w1 I Q' u- k5 y Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
9 H( D2 H; D; g+ G' M/ tare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
1 C% Z3 n9 \9 G) Econditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
5 X$ u2 b8 ]8 A) x: _/ bsound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
) E. N: l( W6 H; V" h( |- i0 d, nresidential real estate sector.- r- h) ], o; n% j* ?
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Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
# L; ]9 |; j; F, uoccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
1 ]5 A7 M6 p3 T: f" z/ o. K }year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
3 ]2 T& u, }7 E5 c% y- d, ~( P(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
& p9 ~6 v" D8 n, ~7 i(+13.2%).* I( v/ \ N" [7 i5 d1 w
: q2 I" |3 ?+ I8 V$ ^+ a "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
8 n4 T' L9 R" ]0 [during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the( S6 m. t, `5 y
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are! s/ g3 |% I4 {' f; }
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
2 n4 P" z# r4 ]1 r J t- }! f# [president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
( `' C& l7 Z/ D5 L6 I; X* @4 z"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
# [( W; }9 i- s# x, A+ W! [' Bwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
) u* n, c/ B8 Q5 ~balanced market."
: {, @4 b s) ^6 ?$ @" L0 M. G2 I# E; F) N) b
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
: }2 D: _" p) Vconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift/ `2 i8 G" r J* `) O8 B: C/ e
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
0 Z! M3 u+ G( P7 |$ tthroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core8 M4 {5 B: W: H, w$ \8 N: R" W
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
# s0 S P0 x" b- `manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record9 ? o) K4 {, p4 T3 l( A
breaking price appreciations.9 O9 ]% t0 M% q7 j, q: c5 ?7 Y
& c* i6 \1 b* p5 \1 d Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
" V/ Z. f0 K8 v& f: H) R$ veconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the+ ]2 N. G' ^* W( u2 I% n2 q
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.$ H* s/ Q2 k8 c9 E! ~" r1 }3 @: X! `
& |, `) e! B5 \5 f; e: R In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid0 v) [! U" @0 V- N, S/ S- L9 }/ |
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
8 `' t) Y6 x3 d* F+ K; F' A+ Xconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
$ D% ~, i+ i1 M- u: tslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.+ a+ E5 h) R1 ]' x- @1 Q& H9 ]
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers6 n/ d$ \2 K- ?! {& |
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
2 T2 s: O. Q, j6 Lprice appreciation when compared with 2005.6 ]# \8 ?9 X7 x1 {
# d/ O7 L, [0 z+ ?, @) c# y: h
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing E, R2 x9 ]5 H8 b" ?, ^0 n
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and. h0 m0 v: Y2 v" e
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada& C( G! V9 z6 W. I4 U( B1 [
are markedly different than those found in the United States.
1 s E5 o5 G4 {' ]) G3 z& K6 a! U% A1 B) Q; W7 g
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
" z& r/ K" a3 s% g; kAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's: f9 V3 X2 Q/ `) y( H% P- f% o$ X! x
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
" [' u1 Q+ y& M1 l- Erelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
1 g& ^2 c4 t6 G+ Gaffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
1 v: v) V2 p3 {! J6 f& sdownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
) q. X, e/ K: K; W) \ waggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization, t% T3 O. }# }( k5 g
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."0 z( o7 S* @) P0 Z
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3 W" q; T: ^8 e4 U/ g8 B- [ REGIONAL SUMMARIES
+ j0 H% M) n+ K& P' m0 \7 P9 l >>3 g! y4 e5 G7 ^& A6 G4 G! s/ i7 y
T+ Q: Z& |/ J; c w
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
4 S) P/ D& ?& v; w! j i5 C& A6 n2 fHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate+ [' |1 V6 k1 U5 w2 _' G/ y+ q
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time: E5 K% C8 j) t8 ?# e, b5 e; e$ H
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of5 r& Z/ y/ X& D, w8 I% a
renovations.! W! h1 P: o0 e: V1 `0 p
$ `- @' A! ]! Z! D
The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight [) ^$ R5 J M5 }
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
% N3 S( H3 J0 }9 Ycompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
3 s+ q$ L! J. I3 x6 c& v7 H8 |& ?4 ySeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
1 R4 _8 y% c( e/ J. R1 b% O: q) P: o% _
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer: a$ V. e+ ^; b
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
6 k5 m1 U# t& e+ y0 O n( Cquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new" T |9 t% ~+ j, p+ \
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores, T |$ S- a. ^, _
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes+ b" [9 G% Z! u5 ?8 O# J
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
$ t" f( H1 V2 Y2 A; u
; L: p4 y! v3 s% k0 _3 h5 } In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
7 b6 N* a+ F$ t) q% \conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
% I) y& b! \; L9 o# U ghomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
9 @( ]' W( v; l! Iwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian2 L% a/ F! g. S6 y* q+ e" @
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
% ?6 u6 C4 q5 o" xbuyers with more options when looking for a home.
& o& v. B) }/ [, `" @0 M! Z$ V- Z- a; \' \
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
$ e9 B2 u) b9 x5 Q' b: L& U8 T, Famong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes# ]6 a% j0 ^1 E+ E* ]
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,- R) d: t1 O0 R; f- Z
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last% D% `$ B0 S3 k/ Z A+ G
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.& ]7 E) u* U+ M( c; }/ R. [
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house7 t& a3 f. j: z" g9 w! i! g3 d2 C$ u
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory" v+ P5 z6 a& B. c9 `2 N
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
* |; a" O( {- p! L/ }: {first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,+ S& _. K" |% \" Z; N; ?
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the2 h W( i) Z& d1 m' z9 x3 h0 g6 p
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
* X( Y( D5 M$ O; W' Kmaking a purchase.
$ l9 x. d) b9 H, H3 A2 e3 Q$ O+ y4 ]- a4 Y+ h, s
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing& m* [2 r( q3 t, r( X8 ?
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong9 z1 X9 B7 o& C4 M# O* w4 u% q0 }
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city/ E0 [7 d8 z4 x% e
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
& c8 e$ g/ s+ g# N4 Y( a$ X2 uattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown6 y0 [7 C/ q: O+ e
amenities." K. {8 Q% P; }
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The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels( w4 @" K6 q/ |! _( m
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
' F f+ `3 s6 U$ I* \# `9 facross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has
; ~( m+ z- D- w7 acontinued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been( `& E6 w( v; v- u
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
, k9 d X& o+ R) T$ Zresidence, rather than for investment.
6 {6 Y8 D6 P* o
( T# j: \& W" | o The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as! O0 @, G# B# }) ~/ P
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
/ B; z) c' p6 h8 qin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer! k6 `' F0 e6 D1 b
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
$ Q0 z/ W w) `* S9 m9 G( [) P+ irate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
& l8 _7 o# z* }# }+ pthe market.
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In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
1 U% N7 {: n; g7 jJuly, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In$ ~% B [ k! ^9 U: h
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring8 i- y1 ^) x* c5 I
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due- l9 u0 m, } t7 G
to the shortage of available inventory.
) q7 r# u5 f: _! Y# b9 H4 v0 _: g6 Z- W+ E( E$ l; X" _0 k
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
% [9 i+ p$ m3 X0 l3 k, D5 amomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains6 [% e! P5 o4 I3 Y
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
! ?( M& L& J2 f3 F! }7 F' C# y+ Vstruggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.7 S$ p, v8 Q4 q/ k* u% j
) c0 e% q( H2 x# r
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
$ p) p+ s3 [! X' Jin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low8 `% F# r1 Q0 w; Z5 `; u1 \
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that2 N3 A7 N; X' t! s- J& t
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring ^! Y" s+ i+ C1 y: V8 Z
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
\7 L ]% Q: l0 Aseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
v2 X; L5 a' z' q+ obuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
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Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
% B" F- P+ }( E; K9 Vas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton- i' t* }4 {) `4 d3 _: Z" Z9 j
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,5 H- L0 y. x+ o R; g3 z8 y+ J$ N/ J
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices* P/ c) E2 c- j+ J. K: _
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
" r! y( Y+ n2 q# gin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
( g# ?1 f; Y* L, jtowards the end of 2006.
; y$ D( w' b5 O6 B. i6 @$ D E2 S; [/ } Z) u; G
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of, W. q8 X Q( j
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable7 {: j4 [- J. U- ]
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse r$ s$ x" S, X
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
2 b; M9 u0 t5 t3 }foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
0 ]! j) v1 }1 b; w0 L6 e7 Q6 ~pressure on tight inventory levels.! P3 [' T% g }5 y) J: ?& v; A, B, c$ R
# ]) \( {, J @& Q7 B8 l$ B8 `- w! z
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic7 u# N2 Q- i1 R: _& j' }& y( @
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
# Q' Z# { J! y D7 t8 m5 n, C; X2 finto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
+ w# ~7 m$ e0 l4 X% Y" v* Fwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching& b# H# S* g: O L
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
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/ _8 x' J6 L% |+ O2 q Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006: X* {& w v4 n, s- @& n+ N0 T
) T7 f$ Y# d) e* }! v [ -------------------------------------------------------------------------% f; p" I5 b( A7 ]
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
, C/ M8 G0 {3 c3 P4 B$ a; }* v -------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 _% ~1 w& y5 e9 Y% d* r0 ~ 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3& e2 q, M6 r( @4 Y
Market Average Average % Change Average Average, Y- x9 Z/ H0 b2 x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ C7 x1 L/ C- m0 ]
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000+ e- o/ D M. A9 J
-------------------------------------------------------------------------' [: ~% p0 @* H
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
% y/ c0 V# ?- a6 D. t- G1 z -------------------------------------------------------------------------1 C+ B S& T7 b8 Y4 N- T! I
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000- f6 E; ~* |5 V# `/ ?8 e
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 k4 R: u$ O) X6 I5 z Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -9 ?, E7 s7 y( {0 U4 g) G, Q# y
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 a. e$ ~# A' S. w o, {( f St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333$ q3 U4 Y$ o3 z; w
-------------------------------------------------------------------------9 T+ n3 u, ] p: G
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
" G: @1 {6 B" z0 w2 g -------------------------------------------------------------------------
% w8 V0 Y. S' ^; h- c) E* R# F Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
5 E8 M4 \( z" |9 O5 B e -------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ c m# n( X$ @+ G: _! ?, { Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
" M2 k* d; ?$ m' d6 { -------------------------------------------------------------------------4 W0 R# P' `+ {* _/ q4 @4 ]3 c1 Y
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766 e. H( U) _7 \0 S7 }
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
' [) G7 s# x5 v9 a1 O Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707' f& A- ^. @ i8 W1 a( t8 ~: W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
! y- w, `! E7 q2 T% k Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500. V3 Z2 V2 w. {4 G+ q3 E% _
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 e. [1 @) a! b: i& l Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389/ T( J/ u: ?. ^ G
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 ^4 Z. `" R" X+ l$ M8 K Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714( _/ `( K$ w2 o8 t
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
) E5 d/ d0 c9 D: E z/ d, _ Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
$ E% t% O5 Z( v) M0 V2 ~ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- W2 {/ ~1 i+ m% Y
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000! r* h5 l! X( Q! O a
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
a/ C7 C) Z( x9 v, ]" h6 @ National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860: K$ a7 i! t! C
-------------------------------------------------------------------------3 z9 y% C" L9 Y( c
5 R% b% W$ d8 d -------------------------------------------------------------
1 O) x3 | |# } Standard Condominium8 U/ ]" O8 i( Z/ p, V( _5 c
-------------------------------------------------------------6 R Y- Q1 w$ ?) [, J
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo/ |9 X2 [8 r( B- B
Market % Change Average Average % Change
9 ?4 D5 V, h m% r7 U -------------------------------------------------------------
: N1 o" j: W4 c, i* i Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9% a" c2 T6 o, y' p
-------------------------------------------------------------* L* K/ z- h# E2 w
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%1 d8 X! L# x# e, M& g# p. n3 z
-------------------------------------------------------------
* C4 e2 T) \1 O# ^( k4 [ Moncton 4.9% - - N/A' }$ k" X5 G' O e
-------------------------------------------------------------) E' k& e3 i1 d3 n
Saint John N/A - - N/A
- }0 ]3 R. Q! ]# T+ r -------------------------------------------------------------
$ c V( Z3 N# z7 { St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%. G9 Y9 {% _0 ?: ]0 Z8 t* x$ |
-------------------------------------------------------------9 j5 c/ Z' W3 m% i, v" K; b
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%' ^$ G6 c# Y( X6 A/ S+ |6 v
-------------------------------------------------------------
, \/ h3 `7 u' c. g: M Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
2 q+ y: N$ J+ p" Q -------------------------------------------------------------
6 c4 M! b- Y. h' X+ W Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
! X- Z) h" M" l" E8 o' \ -------------------------------------------------------------
Q% u$ G( H# ?/ B6 A9 R Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%* X: c9 H8 H+ _4 c; ~4 v1 V- h M; b5 u
-------------------------------------------------------------
' F$ h( j6 a8 q% R Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
) {9 Z4 a. D& y5 X5 M4 ` -------------------------------------------------------------
: U9 H$ u y4 Z% W- H% l/ `# _ Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
5 |3 X7 d4 R2 h: L -------------------------------------------------------------2 V6 `' B9 q% G+ V3 P8 W$ B5 N
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
$ X5 e$ H4 h, K" S -------------------------------------------------------------
$ F" |6 B" Z- W! p9 {6 I$ n# B Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%. K( m/ C7 N/ q0 }2 O2 ]
-------------------------------------------------------------0 A' P% d2 }0 |1 P+ U" x. C' O
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
+ y7 k* b, v$ D) X9 D -------------------------------------------------------------' u$ g3 u# q6 E7 p$ j y
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
4 e4 \4 }2 y I9 y( k2 s -------------------------------------------------------------
. x$ d' X, w# T/ {9 r National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
# j( Y6 p+ ~+ K+ z -------------------------------------------------------------
# |6 `- T$ D" q; w" L >>" c/ l6 j$ ~' K; C* Y& M M" u. A$ I& l
$ Z3 Z( \! t5 u Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
7 |# c9 h- s9 C3 V( P: r5 j$ Rin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint) Z% [% w7 D: x! [$ T
John and Victoria. S" g g, R: h$ Y7 ]
! m; @; |6 }! c4 Y. H, E9 M0 k The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
, _8 a ~7 e# ?4 Acomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
r' |1 @% _# C1 ?7 ^housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
3 K9 R6 f- o- }references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price. e4 r' G2 ~3 E- ~6 X
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities" L! \! c& A8 a$ x4 v
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is4 `( Q6 E3 I( g" X: |2 q
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current1 d% }# F2 ?! s
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
0 u a Q% j/ L. ^5 A8 i$ z% t( zversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on0 r& I& O. z' b* s8 N x8 V
November 15, 2006.4 i* h) B4 \! f y
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of9 e; V, U* V+ l' a! a t
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
: E- `) G" z% B5 g" h1 ~$ a- mprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
t( b+ t( ?5 savailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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