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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable 6 p! w: I: W) A4 i6 H7 V6 c
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- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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* a1 ?# r, x) r" ^ TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market, N% ]+ ]+ F# s* o
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third
$ }6 ~5 q3 o" A" @5 M3 |, F( K, l4 f! ~quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic5 a6 `6 p4 E8 l0 N0 E
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit2 M- \: r/ ?$ h! @
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and' O% z4 y* g9 i& s6 ~
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,5 {1 I7 N) Z- E1 J
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal1 T+ T* ]3 d' H5 i' I0 d2 z+ B
LePage Real Estate Services.
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Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters2 g- y; e6 S% O; U7 R
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
' \( |/ f" r/ `conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
. y. U* ]' B5 W" csound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
& m# R4 a, I1 u3 Y$ O. I) n7 gresidential real estate sector.* t S8 l. d4 F$ S
) p. \: T' c+ |. }. g7 P( ~7 H Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
" j* \) d/ N+ uoccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)6 V0 V' ~3 C1 n$ M( ?
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562- u. Y; K6 ~/ t# l6 D+ G
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380# m: x) O+ E. W+ V6 l
(+13.2%).
* k, c0 \+ n$ m9 h( T
/ @ M M) e8 ?4 H$ o7 u "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth& T, ^$ z* P8 q' x$ R: J8 W
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
+ ?: S! ]" J' t x) Z9 ]. vfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
* Z. n% v, Y, E0 O) }/ w/ |poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
, z7 T- k/ ]1 m6 W7 U1 hpresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
5 y' c* r# a g5 M6 f( a" L"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
/ _. v/ p* }1 Fwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy" ^6 A* C, F8 O6 h6 B* Q
balanced market."
% O! V# ^$ a0 Q- t0 J- N5 T9 q" z$ c+ \/ b9 R/ u0 F4 I
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
* w* i3 Q4 B/ J6 n: w/ D# C" uconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
) ]/ ]5 {7 p5 W u, }( e) ^to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued# D- d. ]/ u+ v I( q9 O) \: _/ \# s. O
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core- q+ N) P' X* ]: i1 g
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
2 x# b* d9 {) `( lmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
" H* O$ u; Z; d6 g9 N& ?breaking price appreciations.+ ~9 e6 H# s1 K' g
8 M, u4 w/ u* w7 p
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
% O x$ M1 T. b* H n6 beconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the/ ^: R$ ` n# _8 w# s, i5 B, N. m
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.; O/ k! W8 t3 e8 H, K% A M G
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In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid6 V/ _. W$ ], I( v D
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer: H+ w# [- s1 w+ S) I5 s. X1 o/ p
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off. A% M4 }" g) {* E7 Z& W
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.2 ^2 E0 E# W3 v, d; y; w' c
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers+ }# _: L7 \- b/ w
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of5 U' O. r( x2 {1 ]: J# k; I S6 o
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
4 O* }& Y) }; _5 \ P
4 Y( c5 c$ X1 b; b/ U, b While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
/ F$ r8 ^5 H, [market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and% x% B- D8 u6 @) f
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada: a' R D& D# c. N3 Q5 g
are markedly different than those found in the United States., l4 m) Z6 H* M. Q# ]1 N
9 \" S( M$ l4 T5 J: ?/ U Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
8 X3 R( r0 G" X% OAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
$ G8 e6 r" P8 ^: S! t2 ufavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the- o+ t# T( N* n2 C( I7 p. o( ^- e
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
+ k6 l' B2 i# U7 J# _" ]0 Daffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the- r5 d7 {. F( A$ c
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and+ H' T' x( e6 C4 t6 |* d
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization/ l! Y. C3 J( V& T+ c: z
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."; L6 f {; S. s) i! ^ l8 a
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<<
" Z, z$ h1 S$ P b% J# Y REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in2 \* t$ q2 E5 E; J) ]* P. ]
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
q: y+ @0 F6 S& yof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time3 X& Y5 p- W; E& ^0 c% }
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
Q3 b* Z; ?& X' C6 P- b6 grenovations.+ u) O7 o& w; n, `6 g
, |( C$ X ^/ {; @* ]
The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight7 R& u0 g7 b" v# m) k- x
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
1 [ k g6 d+ P; X8 v$ Q# L1 `compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and& P: [0 i# [. M/ ?7 U* K
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
/ ]9 @# ~6 m7 w3 |' T. P& w/ s4 }* M4 ~0 ]& ~- ]
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
! _/ e( n! T2 ?0 y2 d, {2 ~# G aslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the) O- G$ u5 t* a j* f
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new% F e4 M( D/ g, Q5 p4 }3 C' p
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
- d% ]3 t5 ~" J" Y( _( |( Oto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
) O" n+ C2 }' J4 o- x' o- R. z$ {and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
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$ n$ _ V& C: m* J; M2 G; X In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced9 c @ c* @8 f3 K3 W
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their* O! C6 I' G3 L6 ]+ \" O3 C1 _
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
0 e* W2 X6 F" L e; p% z6 u2 gwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian- f' m# g9 H& {2 [, `
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing1 [, b& o1 ^' F+ @+ z$ l5 V
buyers with more options when looking for a home.% }) U& p$ S3 Y) m* ^& B* I
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Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
# d6 k$ Z5 N d) s: s+ ]4 Zamong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
0 u8 i$ T/ d- Z& V! Fpriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
* V; w' n3 `+ h0 m) y4 q8 nas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
) K ?! S/ P& ^( l' ]few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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" V* ?1 r! ?0 ]1 J9 ^) }7 ~ Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
9 e) l& L8 Z1 Q" {prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory4 P! O; T' X+ Y0 _3 a6 G+ F
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting: @3 p: I# t; A2 s# @. K* v6 y
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
# T* U+ Q! I! o3 d0 b6 A* k2 u" g/ uwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
2 e9 Q1 n& j/ i: Epressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
- @6 j! X1 b* Y+ }/ ^0 g$ N$ H" }making a purchase.5 b: s/ ^: {: u4 ^, ~ Z9 b N+ {. E) T
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Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing# H1 W1 A% j0 D+ h" S
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
" B, E+ e( ~1 q2 o! m6 P2 ?confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
* Y) X& w+ l& P' qcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting2 v7 u9 e) y! v
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
2 c, h9 [: @7 z2 Y" p% A+ Mamenities.
# |8 }6 O! e' _: ]% {6 N+ y( ~& c
7 U2 S2 S; W5 n" d2 D1 L The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels6 T5 s! i$ Y. l" e% o; E$ f) K
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand: R8 S% N% q$ K
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has% _- ?& l0 j- Y/ h* v" O+ u
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
$ @) f* `) V: W: m/ ^# ydriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle7 q' q+ j4 f. [' J, x. A0 [' i8 f
residence, rather than for investment.6 y/ N( I0 h1 c
/ b* x0 v. G9 V5 p; z The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as3 Z: g0 A6 m) M- I0 b* b
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
" j1 o3 Q; z2 b6 W! V* Uin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
9 _8 D2 I/ y* t: q6 _4 _8 \' F; dconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
7 B- @3 a$ k7 R) h6 s9 vrate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter1 r. ?2 B& A* y: l2 j& [! Q
the market., F8 R6 _. V8 q
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In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
. m- y+ i, |" a) g! `July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
7 |- l+ [6 z1 F. h+ g* aAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring$ F& o* l5 [8 R, ~2 k
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due: e3 k- _, h) t V+ k
to the shortage of available inventory.
. Q$ w0 z* V% _6 g8 q" l2 r0 }: e6 m& c
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its( D% X' b# [# V: t
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
' m% }* V; y4 u3 p" tvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
8 \1 D2 b8 H) l8 c ~: a" d {struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.+ i( Q4 v* z& l: F$ ^/ e
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Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
# A3 \0 G* V! S. e$ [in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low: _$ o( ^& B g3 f8 ?* I& s3 ?1 f
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
, P3 @+ Q5 A' [6 Jpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
0 {8 ~( m8 z F* Zprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
8 G" ^0 L0 U( @, f# pseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as$ | E4 F, ^" U2 @( l% j
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.! A0 W5 y# @/ Q* n
5 j8 h4 k: G- G1 d0 T Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
. ]: b) e; e' G6 H* k( `) L- Zas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
8 E. f) `3 I: o4 ^5 P" {7 eremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
, m- i) U4 p5 `9 q# W9 }maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
( z [7 u% J7 Q( j& ~increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve# m3 I T2 x" ^& q
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly, j9 X( E: m" B) A' H! K) l
towards the end of 2006. & V% I- L5 R; G4 _$ s3 I2 h1 \
# W. A. Z0 |% t/ L6 j. l9 ^While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of8 E: L( d# R7 C7 G! ^
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
|; z7 ~/ S/ r: n4 Ato meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
1 T" Q6 E# y, W. {" I2 d7 p' ~group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
1 E3 N- y1 k; M Pforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
6 I9 \0 h1 v8 {( vpressure on tight inventory levels.
0 V: q6 t8 S2 |! m! O& r/ @' W) ]: ~$ C7 G7 e. S2 G/ K
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
* s0 J7 l% j8 m& Afundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
' Z" X) ?7 M% c6 V! D: ]into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;/ R; @( Y0 M) K6 \( O1 B
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching1 w% c: T# z7 t9 U: P, N- H+ ^
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
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Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 20069 y# P A2 [& r* T, p% j G
|" h2 L0 G# |' m- S -------------------------------------------------------------------------# a! E: ~9 r: y& ]' z( x) M$ |
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey' [% ?) X# [. N1 v( h! t8 }5 }
-------------------------------------------------------------------------9 j% {9 X% t: {: R/ |+ r
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
# f9 g6 P' E5 T7 L( M( v Market Average Average % Change Average Average
- ]4 E2 o, v$ Z. q -------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 Y3 w6 Q1 O' b3 [- o( \ Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000% L8 K% u ]# g& ^0 `+ D, I8 H
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
( z3 u( l" I; f! m8 c, e* P7 i Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
& i) S" U% `( q+ S* d -------------------------------------------------------------------------5 e; ]$ i: f+ y& M9 b; }4 ~
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,0000 v) }& R' m, o# m" f
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- |, {) J7 ~2 K4 ` Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -* W' W8 v) I- ]: y9 d% m. y
-------------------------------------------------------------------------2 d& E' x8 I, m3 K# n
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,3337 Y: n; U/ b! M; P, ]6 W- v
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 V7 F. U) g/ _2 | Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,5834 y) R9 ^, v9 V2 x# j* }
-------------------------------------------------------------------------4 B3 r+ w8 i4 i6 i0 S: D( C: z7 G% d
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,1855 L: t' ^8 j1 @( R( _
-------------------------------------------------------------------------# m5 o" z) }9 N- T
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
7 H' B& E! m5 E+ T -------------------------------------------------------------------------: H6 l9 a6 W E5 r7 w: G4 ~8 V. m
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766 |4 A/ [. ^* p3 Q, ^- f2 f9 _7 {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 ~; N1 x# |4 _. Y Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707! _ w. y) D4 Q. Q! v
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* ~9 P C) S' Q" H# K9 k. X b Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
$ b8 x: L9 q* Z! \6 n+ \, S, M -------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ k& s: P1 a* s- m. _ Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,3899 `; Q9 {0 l; a2 G
-------------------------------------------------------------------------2 _! k* u& G: H; M8 g
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714+ [' o& G( w! h8 W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------# v# W( J) | m9 p B$ d& ^
Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
3 a$ A/ c: n$ Y" ^8 q7 O% C) x -------------------------------------------------------------------------( i: i! i+ J' w) f2 ^" Q0 ]( B/ a
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
# M4 A, F! M4 _+ H0 u# { -------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 e. o) _6 z, {+ K3 N% D2 R, ^1 v National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860, E- y9 y+ V; M% n! ?4 x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
?, P* }$ b9 {0 l3 v, U) J9 M8 g9 _8 ~( u
-------------------------------------------------------------
6 m# n3 A Z& f- M% [" B Standard Condominium
2 @2 r9 B4 Q+ m: p T& Z9 x5 x- _. u/ s -------------------------------------------------------------7 h! ]( b) Z# ? B( I
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
U: O( V# T6 m1 b% O8 _ Market % Change Average Average % Change* \( w/ k. W" ?& L8 I- @% {
-------------------------------------------------------------! ], ~2 W- T0 d# L
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
+ M* ?( E' ^+ x& r8 ] -------------------------------------------------------------: P: } ~: N/ s! N
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%) }) q$ C2 S. a+ V# U
-------------------------------------------------------------
( p, Y/ I5 N2 }; D( Z& Y4 s Moncton 4.9% - - N/A9 A- T- B2 R- w
-------------------------------------------------------------. I% v' R0 m5 c" P* Z$ q1 k( y v
Saint John N/A - - N/A2 K$ C/ l; O( J" _( g- p
-------------------------------------------------------------
! s+ z. ^& D* J4 I4 Z% _" Q% P: E St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%7 b3 T/ @! o( I4 k2 ]5 U* f
-------------------------------------------------------------
, @! `- H- V. N, J- M Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%4 m+ d7 h) h5 H n6 Z W
-------------------------------------------------------------) a$ n% v" X# i4 H: R+ B* x
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%2 t7 s( l( |* y7 W4 N- Z
-------------------------------------------------------------- ^1 F w9 k! G& i
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%6 P* }2 k2 \) D: F# w! { `4 m
-------------------------------------------------------------
0 ` C: H) P5 @: P4 ? Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%4 s2 ^- l( m9 z4 y3 t
-------------------------------------------------------------7 u' W" O2 ~+ p% X8 L5 J {
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%9 V! N9 ]) G$ B3 S' Q, \
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 A7 Z$ t/ M1 n+ P# k& g0 r8 J Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
& v* O: r8 c+ N, v -------------------------------------------------------------. p' X. O* w; |# @% |8 V
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%6 U& |& C- x6 |* }
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 R7 S7 ` A. S" J/ k) ^9 z% F Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%4 N! L/ g; M0 Z9 n$ z) i5 y
-------------------------------------------------------------
6 A* m$ g* u2 C+ W9 V7 B& j Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%) ^1 [# H8 r, y' t z& F
-------------------------------------------------------------
' O# {" [( g( E# P6 S Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
# w1 u) z! N* N# m# v E5 `1 O$ G -------------------------------------------------------------
1 t9 `! j9 Z) S" s! j National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%. w8 P* Q9 F8 _ g5 ?* h1 U) Q
-------------------------------------------------------------4 k6 m( M: G8 P9 F) _) e" {" e: A
>>2 b; T6 Q: e0 |8 N
: w, S2 L z0 ? Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
( o& d8 u# e( q5 v. Y. m! W1 y2 T4 `! Gin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint5 V, r" w7 [* H
John and Victoria.
& k: u T. C C5 |4 W5 a; G
/ C. H5 Q$ T( ` V$ G- @ The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
6 v4 i4 U a8 B1 y2 T& b6 p% Hcomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
; ~8 ?+ d3 W" I2 K! ]housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
* _5 Q+ J8 C0 W% z- O- ureferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price9 U* z" g! T$ f, j/ w. Y
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
k$ \0 N, ^0 [& @7 L; B0 facross the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
0 c, L4 p$ p, c/ _) Aavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
; g" Q {1 U- ]6 Y. @! i; qfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable) a+ [6 V, H9 Q
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on) F( Q. l n& K/ J" _
November 15, 2006.
" a, m/ w: C% m+ Y$ U9 s& g& F Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of+ m7 ]/ u' o! `
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge5 n% U4 R$ D2 I9 J& z+ O
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
$ y- T4 n# z) C* \( ?# {, aavailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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