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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
1 \$ u9 H$ v, S( o) m/ m- U R/ z9 g2 i% m
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -$ V3 o. {; @3 {6 B9 S$ N9 ?
; l# e) M5 p/ t6 r {
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
( ?4 ]0 _$ w: h# G+ e2 }exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third7 ~' s1 X5 h' p) r
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic6 E! l g; W$ `* n+ {* H( b
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
# _/ o0 B) Y- f7 i+ r, S6 gprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and3 N/ q9 [2 {% a* Z/ z& D9 }
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
# R' u, ^: B" x" t: ~0 OQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal( H* g1 ?( j3 s0 p9 \# s m9 p
LePage Real Estate Services.
5 q2 M' k6 J1 ^0 l" x0 C
+ W" _- y/ P! n' [# `0 u: y Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters" K8 w0 N5 k: C/ V& k {+ x$ R
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic* e. {1 w: Z% N& w4 ~, i0 N
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and* {4 }) v. W3 M3 z# ~. q
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the ~, b, i9 E) t& L) a, y
residential real estate sector.
; `1 g q7 A+ q, ~4 P1 n& |* ^7 E# I! W" I
Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
4 U9 Q4 W$ G7 y ~+ k+ r f3 Coccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)3 D D$ i5 f" U) s4 ~
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,5622 N2 {* k" I6 Q6 @
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
. T+ M, @, z2 ~" m! c(+13.2%)." P) M2 w* i2 A6 W# _
2 I8 K7 n6 x: x) H! n, v9 P "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth$ e' x: P" u4 j, V
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
: x1 O3 \6 R$ \9 H8 afrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are! h) E- @- M o3 o) P3 A, V
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,1 r _9 ]6 C5 c9 {7 Q5 P
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
: R. `- b+ z/ h0 N"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
& F. O# e; C( w9 W% n" {) Rwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
4 R9 J8 n* x- Qbalanced market."/ x4 X7 r1 I1 D, B8 l$ w# ?
9 h0 ?/ y0 z C5 G( o, `1 S Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,. [7 W8 O; K) h( @
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift3 ?7 t# H' S4 ]; [9 T, j
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
" E7 j# P7 \9 ~; `throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core: D0 @; ~6 \9 w5 I8 I' H$ ^! e& J
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,8 O0 G5 h" \7 R& g+ A6 f7 w
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
$ `* S/ ]' O7 i8 T4 S3 c f+ L+ Ibreaking price appreciations.
) L- n4 m$ U$ F4 P/ G0 }1 T) [2 l8 E0 z \% J A" |
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding& x; w: j" G2 m
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the% s- H* m6 M, Y( P9 j- J- a+ p( R
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
* ^' ? @6 ]0 p7 s! I7 Y! Y6 u* h7 C% m5 V* f, ?8 {) p
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
& Z1 |1 I0 p. H) [' ieconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer+ u B6 r# s" O" ^: Z8 z/ p
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off; A9 z& J7 E9 i& n
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
0 u. r0 q9 B- K: ^7 ]/ ^; ]In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers( z1 Z* f6 t, E' |% X
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of! S9 V, b0 t) _" ^( y# F0 j+ z4 @
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
) J3 {" z; Y/ ]; I$ v; k3 h5 P$ z) |3 ?/ f: ?( u S
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing) B# Q: Y( I3 R" [
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and ~: X1 G% _9 Y3 Y5 M# O
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
: ?4 s% ~/ Y5 \% D j- j& Eare markedly different than those found in the United States.0 R- t3 q* D9 `& [4 s- w( p7 \
8 }: I7 N7 v& P8 f: R! f. R Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
9 N8 [/ q# O8 GAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's
' G6 [' m+ z% q+ t5 N8 c5 r, [- dfavour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the
+ C# o, |4 z3 l2 r; urelatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general z# L1 ~2 t% w+ R* @* u" s
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
* v: @: g- I6 t* ?0 qdownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
; J4 q8 q' f2 w" ]2 caggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
R! r( T& C7 K: B$ a: @) Vmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."/ s* i6 u/ R2 ?+ U4 x
3 v, [5 }1 K, ?/ \9 H- y <<
# M. ~9 A& b- O- M7 r REGIONAL SUMMARIES: f) I m$ r* ~
>># S$ @9 q& z( D% Z- h: ~
# T3 s. i) U% i. i; e! k4 H Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
0 \; [ w; O% {) `Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate6 B% r9 U. f5 ?8 C9 w+ y! Y1 v
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time0 r x0 A. u6 M, |- _" U" G; `
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of. }- D. t# |. z0 j
renovations.
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The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight# H0 \$ d7 H5 U
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
3 e/ F, ]$ k, zcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
* u: _ ]: K q3 \) zSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.' y) o5 F. C7 L2 }) A
7 ~' ~5 w; Q! f) K2 e The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer1 \8 f9 k/ h/ n. e
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the0 _" v" y) _8 q' A7 I2 T' D
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
0 q) g5 [; {6 S5 ?600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores2 C+ m0 z g2 j( {7 |" j- h! B, |+ h
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
' ? b5 {; p$ _1 Q! Aand are instead opting for more affordable housing options.% H) \' Z. z+ V! S
8 ~7 a: `) v) Q5 H In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced/ I4 J+ `, p! y! C
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
$ d" F8 W7 H3 J% v; Khomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
. L, g; r$ c8 \# Awas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian, l t% A" f' w2 p
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing, Y) |2 l; T2 v# d4 L3 b+ l
buyers with more options when looking for a home.0 ^3 g* e* [2 R# H
4 m- k+ H1 P: H& G
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
0 {' e* \+ K! f, H& ~among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
. M, @+ G9 ~( Ipriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
% S D3 r2 p2 L3 c" y+ ?as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
! }% ^9 Y& S( p7 n8 {few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
( Z4 U# V3 }/ ?5 x c9 k' _# \( Q! p1 m- H4 Q" m
Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house6 K! a& Q- T# F3 l9 Q0 J7 Y4 {
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
: I6 q8 l1 i0 t5 L/ S/ Alevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting# t( v& ^" X' T1 A; _ V
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
0 Q5 X/ p9 f8 ^4 ]/ mwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
1 M q5 k3 J" R! d4 qpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
/ u1 h6 s5 g1 ~+ S+ x0 [! D1 cmaking a purchase.; `3 \' ~; Z3 e7 O: O& f: S
$ a$ q6 g" M& e# W0 z. k5 z Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
4 p+ B8 j& ^ k. Amarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong5 N' p& Q# L! p+ v) J. w0 [- }
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city j2 l5 R1 T4 M& E8 ~4 e; n
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting: X9 Y% g1 o$ {
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown/ K+ G" a# ]8 p. U5 p4 k
amenities.
9 O, U' G7 x' q( G; N. B& `- V. Y* ]: p# ^8 z C. u6 q
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
" {: E3 A8 N( Z, f# z+ r" |throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
3 w8 V& ^1 @, m+ J% w+ Dacross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has0 o' |9 o% ?2 L c
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
9 c- P1 b2 R; S4 Wdriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle1 q$ m: k8 Z1 k0 F9 d
residence, rather than for investment.
! y& Y% [/ F2 _+ {, O1 G1 N y0 a5 R2 }2 I f* S8 O
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as) m0 A& _. ^+ y% |+ r2 j. \
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted( x0 Z+ K3 Q+ q' }5 G
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer6 |( N* t7 @. A/ K
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
! F; [5 a+ A: R0 i9 h. K0 grate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter2 e4 q9 A! _6 |- o: J8 k
the market.
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2 D1 Y; k8 D7 O# B/ A7 V In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
; r4 I7 ^4 ?4 k- I9 ^4 |July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
& o2 q; G; ?6 S' v7 K& I: b# IAugust, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
$ ^+ |: l% r7 Dmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due) y" U7 X& D( q) B
to the shortage of available inventory.
7 b! R7 @( u z% A9 K) Z8 W1 x5 r5 E1 i- Q
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its, e3 i+ r/ c# N: L" k7 ~
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
! t# O7 e) w( @0 P" s: ^7 z9 rvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses( }. p2 I8 E1 X" c
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.' x6 J8 ^! j0 Z* J, v6 @
" P3 o! ^% |! ] Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
" ~. R. R8 m9 c) e2 |+ v: @: D! Lin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low4 Q. W9 p! T, g1 v
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that& {( q+ n# r; w/ ^
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring/ G6 b) t3 ]+ K3 I
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
; D9 n7 e1 |2 x/ j, \season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as" m0 D, P% N& I
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
p; T$ p7 L+ o6 z; b
, B* R8 v0 n' a; M i: S! Z2 a j Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
" s- J9 s8 V0 @as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton* I+ l0 E( L$ }& s7 l% @$ w# Y
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
5 u4 P) Y8 t# A& E i9 _maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
+ }3 R' m& F7 Q# O& U1 ~/ zincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve( B* V! x" j% m7 c
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly6 H' s, c& X8 M2 U- a# }$ ?
towards the end of 2006.
( |3 d% q, v% S; s& Y* \
; ]# r- B. i; C$ b% V* OWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of4 } _1 v# i3 p6 D
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable5 D2 N! u9 u' e9 Z" [6 D) [: B
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
/ N9 m1 w- a/ S- w; m5 ?' `group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
# [% o. Q6 M; Fforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added% P/ N/ s7 X |1 y5 l, z: @
pressure on tight inventory levels.+ b$ j8 e7 g% J, |: v8 d8 S: R# X
+ q) z9 f6 w5 b2 g/ v Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic) y7 O% N w* w6 i
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people2 y3 K1 @1 a9 Y# G
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
1 s- [. b( s- fwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
% ?* o/ U. P E/ g' q( q: afor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.; _0 ~, c0 e- S5 }% q% D6 T. P
6 H x: T$ u9 ?* Z4 Q <<
' m; D/ N+ i. i9 z; i Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 20062 w# C# D5 h& A: N9 G
! o8 N3 J; {9 w0 p4 B -------------------------------------------------------------------------
) K" P) `0 ~3 W! y9 z& {! ]# _) ] Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
8 d3 \' r8 J N0 B -------------------------------------------------------------------------7 {4 M! C# W. j+ g- O9 h
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
3 _- Z8 W& n0 O6 L Market Average Average % Change Average Average$ K9 c& s9 O- s) p
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
! ]$ _% h8 _* f4 j Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
- {& R3 \, y I -------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 O2 k e' }- c6 i Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,0006 N% v& V; w( F! m
-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ t( _& [5 r. n6 d
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
$ T. Y8 L3 s' w% C" N -------------------------------------------------------------------------: _5 e7 L( M6 z+ H; y, R4 t/ e
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
: C: F! I; F' x3 ~' S/ `/ P, ?5 Z -------------------------------------------------------------------------8 v3 d4 Y: x c! i0 I# K n" W: Q/ F
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333+ }. H( R! Z% X9 Z+ ?; L* M. _' @- y) m
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- e# o! d5 E3 n/ a' t Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
/ e. W" _) D: q& c8 L -------------------------------------------------------------------------1 E) b* v; e, Q
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
F8 j& [; B5 m3 y! C$ x' r7 y4 S -------------------------------------------------------------------------& [/ l2 D% r9 W9 d
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
4 L6 ^4 W1 v* K" }; a -------------------------------------------------------------------------+ }0 a) s2 G; b$ G
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,7663 ?# D: J7 M& |' J" N' T
-------------------------------------------------------------------------* o9 f8 e1 H c9 n$ _* M
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
+ K3 Z1 U6 ?: s$ {# n: S4 r" @ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* B' x1 c% z0 \3 Y0 L/ f Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
( G! Q" B; x3 E; p7 w) } -------------------------------------------------------------------------/ [ ^8 ]# a. S1 z/ w0 m) H4 ~2 m
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389; `1 x1 o. T5 F" f' t" \6 d! B
-------------------------------------------------------------------------" V, M$ _% d4 O# [- ?4 I
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
6 {+ l; R# G5 t5 p" Q6 N2 e N' @ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
j5 ~5 E* e7 X9 ? Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
3 M, J% X/ n( j. e -------------------------------------------------------------------------! V" @0 ^* t1 B3 H" S
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000' q& J7 F5 K% ~1 j5 {1 D" V( }# P6 k
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
/ w1 A6 v/ p5 ^8 }( t National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860# ~4 e: m! U3 c6 ~" E$ a( W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 }1 y! k5 i, P, C8 p( `* ]
* K! X* f. i' W7 r- G1 Y; o% y -------------------------------------------------------------
$ V( `6 X+ r2 x( A6 p8 N Standard Condominium0 h0 M% j& l) D1 A- C3 O
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 _ E6 {- s. F7 ?6 H1 R/ L7 G 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo* o' }3 ~1 E+ Y, n4 C$ [9 T
Market % Change Average Average % Change+ D* K, ^* Y/ P. p' P
-------------------------------------------------------------
2 p$ q/ o* z8 v; c3 y Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%$ r% ]! z R z* d, [. E$ L- \
-------------------------------------------------------------
% I9 P1 {9 g, x9 a% l Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%9 J3 A$ G2 n: S
-------------------------------------------------------------9 Z1 L2 i( E$ x/ S) o6 G: v
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A9 c# c1 ~) V$ X6 }. @7 b! _6 N
-------------------------------------------------------------/ O, h, T/ [4 b, H, i
Saint John N/A - - N/A' h! n/ {" w q3 E
-------------------------------------------------------------% e6 b F* ~" K2 A, m0 Y
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%3 R: W" F5 l' Y' y
-------------------------------------------------------------
7 n( i) z% i7 |8 O Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
- r3 A. H6 ~" v( G! w1 }" J -------------------------------------------------------------! J7 Q4 u7 L2 U' `
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%% a& C: B S; U) ]* ?. `* P
-------------------------------------------------------------$ H& G8 k# j$ I8 k/ E: l3 F
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
% U! k1 q. k. b# t2 H5 H -------------------------------------------------------------
p% _' k: u, S! e+ i+ K; E' H Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
+ C& y0 l- E- I! p -------------------------------------------------------------+ E. k5 |4 T+ W& ?& a
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%4 ^5 D5 D; E8 p( j. a' e
-------------------------------------------------------------4 g3 ^1 |, }( W; X( Q* d$ t. P
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%3 {+ j- m1 L8 y" w% Q- P6 P( ~
-------------------------------------------------------------& U+ C! c" M+ f
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
: p7 N% y* O) l. J) ^ -------------------------------------------------------------
3 }! _1 J- F/ e# m9 D; p6 u Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%5 m- { ]) U' r
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 e R, M% h( }# I Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
/ H3 K0 l8 |- W7 v -------------------------------------------------------------
; B* M% o; J# y! R6 W/ C Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
8 T) s$ I# \9 x+ Y7 ] -------------------------------------------------------------: \9 X1 E8 D" R% h* n' F; }) w5 e
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
+ ^4 o# V+ J+ R; J -------------------------------------------------------------
; n% \) z" G% {9 l" l$ {+ @ >>
/ u, V' K5 g. y! a* P" v# H$ G
7 A: y; q! @3 @- r Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined2 x: \+ `! z+ y2 l* |6 \2 n: ?9 a
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
" S. `8 T/ m6 k, A: e1 FJohn and Victoria.
6 }' t+ H+ d- D0 ]' k. B* ?8 M$ b* u: Q( U! w
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most5 @, k3 @0 w7 s
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
6 z/ u! t W( @! z: {- fhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release5 s$ b u) b0 G0 Z
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
9 \" C" A9 i! S9 T2 J4 a; ztrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities( d+ U1 V# E; p8 h; k
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
6 e& \& E; W" S5 Q- d* }available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current4 G4 t* F7 J) R" ]" n. W3 U" R6 l0 c! }0 P
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable- U. L, W J6 z) q4 L0 q
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
" B+ `4 N5 \1 X* \* G! pNovember 15, 2006.
2 b5 r. a8 m* q Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of4 {0 S9 w3 o0 ~/ b% V* b) t
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge! c4 R9 r9 J/ ^9 d, K) I
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is& {# k* W5 m1 C: w8 _7 s' E
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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