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; \4 F+ w7 ~" P Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.2 \8 `2 t E5 t" G9 Z
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% T. B# p0 {% A6 pThu, January 11, 2007
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- O: \- D, v1 G/ IPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20077 y' o$ q7 t- f' [ K' r
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ' v2 B) ^. ]0 o4 A+ R, I, x
7 C% n/ p6 o, UBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ) q9 p* n/ o7 F" t% G+ L8 ~$ R
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ! o1 b) C' \% A3 T
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: Z. c1 o! c$ {+ m4 I: G1 \) G* Y"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." ! b/ x" D- m( B
( e- ` }0 \& fShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 1 C; [- j: ]3 W( X& L. |2 l& ^! C
- \4 p) K" G" e% q; O; o& r5 g"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. ' s" Q6 [- f4 `+ m, D8 n, G: s) C: L
5 B- Y# H! D4 ~- x/ _Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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# J( d! d6 H' \9 `, @9 G2 d% h* ["The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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& d4 o7 M' @& J# C9 i' hStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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3 K8 r3 o9 g/ H7 o"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 1 u( Y8 ?# O0 y- ^
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M) w0 t& r6 aHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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$ `% T& E2 X# BExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. " D1 ?, C, D6 w7 i5 K: }
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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# V$ R* m" W& U2 B" H5 E8 x"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. $ K% s8 Y! E2 g O- `7 n. m3 m
' }9 A( l% H1 ^% B6 y C$ tSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. % D! b0 S6 ^4 E; O5 m( g+ n
, A5 i7 r; Z. g! i. |Previous story: Bottom Line
( F# A: [. O: t4 z: h- y+ eNext story: Building permits hit record
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