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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.; m0 g0 S% o* k: A( i2 l
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0 m! S B7 K! K* C$ gThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007& _8 Y4 t9 m/ i/ y' E7 [4 }
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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/ v* O |1 |7 L1 f sMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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% a8 f. r! O' q* a ` j# pDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. % P4 X2 E1 p- M) _& m& y
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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" z% M" |3 P* u# Z3 a' i. ]) d' i"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 9 w3 U) i% B! A" `. n0 y( O8 h
6 v% {5 W! r' q ~' O"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 7 ], T5 O3 D% m( f
; ]* n* x3 M1 h" `4 fStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 0 [0 F/ a2 z) M. ~2 Q$ x# R$ e
1 d4 i1 f/ z8 f"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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2 z5 N) M" S! H2 F"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 3 h% S6 N' {& j5 }1 Q" g
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 2 s; z0 A3 p% b% L3 F k8 m
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ' ?0 n* A0 h6 F- }7 i, J* |$ V
C: f, X/ ]8 n1 `+ Y5 xExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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/ ^) Y/ m' y& A% {His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 1 }6 f7 U: X4 G: a
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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0 W! j7 |" }1 K1 \; u* O) K"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 4 {: ^" @8 V0 \5 E
7 l* U. J8 j4 ]# d1 e, _Let the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line$ v% a" y$ y( T$ i: q
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