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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com- X# v( \8 p; }9 O: r% E
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, s9 q3 N+ J0 E" zThu, January 11, 2007' M* A# g/ W7 d6 U) L
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20075 j* H9 b& U; B4 _0 h
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN+ s9 _* J* c; [2 }' I8 x# f7 ~% x
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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0 `: I& f" v$ `2 D. NMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ! K( U D; Y) V6 t7 C% p: J
9 H) W) d0 Z8 w- vBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. R, E2 _; R/ U' k, e
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. / `+ s7 L/ L' i7 S4 K
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; I2 y0 M* U0 l' D! {: \"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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$ y: V* U, l7 C; g+ zShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 5 |$ F E4 _4 Z
: a: z/ E- d2 [ v$ K4 }"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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/ Y6 f0 R/ [3 x! z"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ' k1 t( N4 q2 z% f
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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6 s* x- b5 {6 H4 s. L! ENO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 1 Q" F* j" m& R7 W' e7 }
0 d# f5 T! W [ l bExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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; o$ Z! p6 g6 H8 i0 ~; X5 k: |Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 5 R2 `0 F+ x4 A, G- q9 X" n7 k
% z/ ?4 k& c: v+ r( y1 P+ j% LHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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7 w: d) i0 U! Y$ _4 D. K( P"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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3 ~, {( h, _ t% v8 oSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 3 A3 z6 b; P; M, {( c
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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! c: B9 _1 S. G1 `Let the good times roll. ) k4 P, B' E. O7 B
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Previous story: Bottom Line& m9 q4 L$ s' }6 k6 C% ^
Next story: Building permits hit record
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