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) v* K' r" {; b$ `. a Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com* j3 Y, s. Y6 v9 y2 Q8 q# ~+ G5 |
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. q. e- o2 W1 L! c/ aPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007, q. g9 V6 I# c0 Q/ F
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN7 t" B, I$ M7 y. f7 ?/ c3 I- F# o
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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( t/ p! g, B9 t4 G" `7 TMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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8 g0 k( z% E5 zBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. . \5 [ g! c6 t) r4 l M
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 3 ?3 P c. ]: [9 `
8 I5 S3 h' X% h' F) D- T'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 9 I3 R1 C5 W f) h6 }; L0 z
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 0 Z- k# w7 A$ t4 f
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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' e1 n: F' O8 @# x) }9 D"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. " `* A1 e% r" L% F% y
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+ s) {% ]5 E# Y! U( G% S. }He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." X! h! j/ V: P0 C' I
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. - b+ @) l1 K6 \/ H5 K( S
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. , t; @* u' R/ |$ Y" l- M n
* u/ ]# M' g: Y; ]7 Z# ?( EHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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9 H% A9 o0 Q8 x0 v, `0 Q* o: x. kYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. : t. V0 f7 j2 @
5 x! _& V# e. @1 F& C/ X"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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9 C2 d# d; h% u! M8 @' _9 pLet the good times roll.
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+ i3 n! E3 G$ G( n: L! r3 RPrevious story: Bottom Line
b' b$ b' r* r. R; N* Q) ?Next story: Building permits hit record( D3 u5 {/ G: T$ T u8 T/ D: }
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