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[9 O# _" \4 |2 u6 _( BThu, January 11, 2007
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2 h3 @) \6 I4 m( g# @ V( Q- EPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
/ E7 X8 O" @ B0 W1 s, T0 ~By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN9 ^3 Q& l0 |; B& f
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: U* s; ]: w% U# k9 s; uThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 7 d0 e8 ~- A" k) S7 v* P& F- F( l
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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% |. N8 f. }9 t$ Z8 S dBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 2 o+ Y3 k. b7 ^7 O Y" q/ C D
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ( u$ M2 {# ?, m4 X
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' ; w) X7 b" V: u! F/ B! L
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 7 C. k0 Q: d% F# ~, M- L
1 r/ e0 P" `# X. W7 lShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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% C$ n9 X! A9 H"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 7 F- O/ h4 R/ D
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 8 G$ B( c( Z% e& ~9 I
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." + s- n, A% x! T: f W2 n
& r8 P5 a6 G/ s" B- j8 A2 c7 O/ |! v2 AStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 5 H7 G/ s( C; `' f" s+ |
% B1 d4 P1 v9 a( T C. H"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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1 m X1 l& B" F# Z: M"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ) l0 g, D/ T0 C# a0 `
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. , Z' J5 f& [- \" s
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. / E1 y+ W, J, I e
5 ~ ?. J& z0 t( U/ y/ DHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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' G( | O$ K0 Z: u! t; C"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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! h" r' j4 ?. b0 Z! O3 U0 O4 G% hSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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+ N# y, M3 Z! E( K- L u4 e' |7 ]# nYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. & w9 N- Q6 m1 j8 z# U
- \, _& w5 d0 B3 z" W9 o( j! c"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. - w! R F' V3 z( L9 m
9 y/ L# |6 g" x9 N! f8 h/ X4 P$ ?: XLet the good times roll.
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0 w6 y2 z( @- |Previous story: Bottom Line
" C& e% X; k7 W4 p _# \Next story: Building permits hit record
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