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' ^6 z7 K; h6 t; [& C1 pPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007( O% ~: W" |: e B# n
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN. f5 F7 Z. C1 t( a
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. . P7 @# J4 x5 ?- o/ D" L7 p! _7 }* f
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' " ^4 d% H `! w* u+ I6 V0 g0 m6 u# }
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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! N9 ^7 w0 g4 T4 ^- h"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 9 {5 z, u( M v6 i
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 2 j" J% @; I& d8 p
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. # b3 ^/ W! X2 ~( x3 u; H( {
; U3 [+ Z8 H- S4 _( e"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 9 U5 m, e- g( T6 x4 s5 n i
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 3 V& Q3 _* @: ~# Q
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 0 k" }3 o6 j& F. q2 c: V
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. : @3 ^; [+ A- o0 P8 x5 i1 {
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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; |: {; ^" ^5 f0 @* b1 G* y) l" N9 `His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 8 s, M! \ B" q3 f# K
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. * Z" s* ~4 G! B& |; i7 ~
: u6 g1 K. ?$ I/ f% E% D* y- a1 s/ T"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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( d) c' F% U' g0 M- r, dLet the good times roll. 6 V6 X. ~5 Y5 A$ L
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