Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
2 \2 `$ }/ K. s4 J9 N$ A: yNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
TD can give you 4.2%.
BMO can give you 4.3%.
* [+ W& b* K; H( G3 f# }0 O4 p- I, N  S5 ARBC can give you 4.0%.
(Roughly)
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
8 V; [# K/ h8 r, T( S# E3 k" aAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
% z7 r# f4 Z" S' @3 NFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
Rough calculation:
# c, Q* m! k9 a0 d* j7 L3 A# `Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
- F6 ?- {  s% p! n9 U$ ?7 WBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
5 ~3 ^* L2 d- m1 F9 NDeposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
) v- h/ m7 r# Z( I. R2 rI am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.

5 z" }' K1 ]% l$ Q. g$ |$ tAll above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
5 g/ i$ n# H' n2 |* a; j1 Z

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
: L% p- X/ o) o9 MWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
! D. m; F) p: ]; ZNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
. o" w$ |. _6 c如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
, z7 ?) h; n4 A2 [: M0 m政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
* ?+ d8 e- e: K. JBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?

呵呵，多打了个0。

多谢。
9 l' y0 s3 ~! l
0 S* _5 T* t) D( ~把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
( y, T0 y8 w( o) \' s我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
2 E0 e7 d: A6 `# ]& ^如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
  w, P5 b4 V' w8 @5 V$ B而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
8 b- T! c% l+ v8 f8 n政府也会需要钱。 ...

但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
2 D4 D3 U0 R( F/ u5 \7 o
/ f. }9 k& U7 C( w现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
  U1 q3 C/ ^8 g* \2 S1 y8 L如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
( w& L6 e5 e6 W如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"
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+ d1 k# ~0 y# {: _& M6 ^[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]