Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
- J2 h" U6 e( y0 u7 aNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

3 f  L2 k9 x0 T, R  y) h, j  RDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

- P0 z0 \, q+ @/ O9 O: iOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
0 n, t7 `7 s% z- d: Z$ M6 B' S
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

* V0 f3 _( {) o8 E& pAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
. i! ^0 w' G6 Y$ Z6 P( p
3 t1 b" y% J/ F" c# t6 w" L% {Jul 2007
+ h2 d) Y' l  ?- o2 @0 ] NA
2328
717
442,752
8 [3 H7 a6 t( `/ h2 |3 n* l* P 410,000
: y- y- R8 x6 i) }7 l3 i( j6 H9 z 320
28
31%
5 V, e2 g- M9 b" ~/ p
! o& @. g/ v4 z  H- J* {" H* @Jun 2007
, d4 R, @/ f( S5 m+ Z! Z# m# v NA
3 b  N) V% W/ Z7 t1 C 2661
1011
442,817
, ^. t  X* _. n4 [ 409,000
328
' q$ }% z9 N' ^( E: s 22
2 O) Z# ~8 b8 A3 u' l( f 38%
: L; X. q: D) `4 }( ~( }. o* R
May 2007
NA
2288
" g. w' D5 H& ~9 C! e7 t 1261
/ P; d8 ]9 \2 B 451,216
415,000
) v9 v& f) O% l4 b4 X; c  y 322
7 i" i% q$ _% h5 Z4 ]; v$ @: A 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
6 h% i7 X7 |/ ^5 k2 X鉴定完毕！

) v* D1 f7 N  R( g: e* l. ~
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
9 }: D7 v5 J2 W8 w% X& V. E2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
( ^1 f/ F3 D$ a5 j3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

7 [  r8 ~, Z6 U5 i: S% M- Y
9 L' w( R* m! I- P$ T7 l0 c呵呵，太不专业了吧。
  E# x  ], i0 W& m# S0 {& q& c0 o. r
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
8 v# ~! R; U3 S' F0 @# W$ y
/ X7 {$ J7 b6 U" X5 g* d这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

0 }) t+ {5 o3 V" r3 ^9 I4 h
' g% e7 q& w( U/ M3 h

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

! R2 |; r$ L$ m" ]' P  R' v3 ]

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
0 B: l0 Z& i: ~3 Q) h  O, H5 h* cgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
8 [% Y. _3 `5 f6 A5 A' {In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
1 B+ a6 C' \+ ^" U# {Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

- A! S/ W9 Q2 ^I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
. g* X! L, A1 W# M3 ^$ LEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
* y6 W8 X5 s3 L0 I' q- XIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
/ F5 ^" Z" Z- V% C1 LNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

) g+ ^* y0 I, ~# f; l
) t; e: b" _3 `  D3 [# e; }! ]3 X' L( FI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

7 o4 H5 l2 Q; E) r4 p' E1 i

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

$ g! F) m+ P/ {& w# d7 W  E  C
3 ^* C" I, k% m' B2 M# F& l下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
: ?: E/ l' d0 _/ n

5 I) t& z7 z( m+ H
) V4 H) G8 q* ^5 p  Z只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。