Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
$ w' c! F8 g* r( w' `MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
* `: _! I; L: p) B- T
0 J8 W! Q& b! g6 @0 u, P; JSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

- k; _9 ^5 Q  dAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
2 H. ~8 E7 D7 l( @9 I+ S
Jul 2007
NA
6 Q$ ]2 ^  o! J; I 2328
/ N' u9 z3 i. {" T3 u  o& ?6 N 717
442,752
410,000
. f9 M2 \; [) M1 q7 Q) p3 o 320
- V. H8 \- |( H) ^8 N 28
5 r. O9 f7 c( @+ q/ I5 I( ? 31%
3 A1 @. O* r. B/ s3 J) Y5 B2 X' I
Jun 2007
NA
4 l* X7 i& p& e% d1 V5 E4 b2 k" S 2661
+ M; P1 ]3 I0 g8 z& l3 J 1011
442,817
* \4 S8 I* i2 i: q# w 409,000
328
+ t3 |% U9 a: h+ v' I 22
6 u  H5 }- ]& K: S7 ]8 H, o/ c 38%
. K' n; X9 b% Q& K) S! e7 t1 b/ A
May 2007
NA
4 h  r/ D1 B5 H8 a 2288
$ ~8 O+ Z% v: ^  B 1261
451,216
415,000
322
4 B- Y# F; _! v0 P+ q: i% r9 t+ M 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
, s. [- P2 i) O" Y$ v这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
) D% j: e- c( F鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
9 t& E( L& e. ]" \0 w7 J3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
6 f' ]5 S( I% y1 {& J; N% w( f9 j  \鉴定完毕！

8 u6 O- K0 g+ e  ~( t
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

/ J0 p) Z. b6 j4 \% J新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
; @5 ^1 H5 p0 l: U1 Z
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
8 ^/ ^' F7 X5 ]; xDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

& k# H2 L% w. ~* N

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
8 l; f: z9 G4 ]% M1 d. V% OIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
$ b0 a: s( A; N, o# P6 NHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
" |0 k# F: I% u+ m/ W. t# g2 E1 E- bThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
3 ], S0 k) {$ R- W" MIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
8 \: R0 j/ ^: i% D5 e  N5 f+ PIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

: s2 g- [7 T! v1 w$ {4 D
2 K' ~) F  N! b# O: T) eI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
  Z: X4 p+ l: a0 ZNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

( G$ S2 K+ Z* i' b/ h
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

1 I) {. W5 R$ o" J- ]
8 r7 i  u. D5 ?5 H* ]8 W( Z
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
; I! b) X5 @# R" E6 n  p: d4 `! H7 W0 ^看来，观察days inventory 更重要。