Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
: e: l) G% Z- Z. xMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
! C5 J0 I- z. {8 vIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
# p" r" s, `2 D
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
6 m" u! f4 v% v! L& t$ c. ^0 L
1 w; E5 }0 d6 |0 S, ^4 O  xAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

7 W  g% p& l9 p; d/ D5 \: GJul 2007
NA
2328
" R. }$ H: T5 [, |1 r$ y  G& V 717
442,752
$ |- P6 A/ H5 |9 G+ Q- ` 410,000
320
28
* l# W( q+ b$ u 31%
( u4 |0 U* Y! G, ^. r
Jun 2007
) k* i" D7 s5 r: c7 o; `% u NA
2661
& K5 q# B% M6 |/ R 1011
442,817
409,000
( H6 k4 C5 }" {$ o 328
5 D1 D8 @5 G/ B$ F4 @ 22
3 X: ]) ]4 C( c 38%
# h5 y& R) Z7 D# ]
May 2007
' G% c. f7 p, F$ w5 ^; v$ t NA
2288
1261
( {7 g- y/ i! ~5 i+ L 451,216
0 t: E4 Z# A. ?4 e& ?- @ 415,000
. t/ L, V, u+ s& \( a 322
' U( E( J& y& ]5 ?8 X. @ 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
) T# A2 h' K. p这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
+ n& O* m9 c  T. X9 o3 s存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

! P+ s" O/ w* g, ~5 N& T0 I
+ \! `, w2 T* X2 q用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
# W- E5 X5 P( x) i4 n存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

, i) T8 P1 _5 S5 d+ C! u
) }2 v, W# S: G0 `呵呵，太不专业了吧。
' b5 W2 @: c9 a3 P) l  `5 \+ l
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

! }# L& Z+ ?" P# N$ G7 ]1 `9 l就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

( H: A6 ~! S% g% J$ `; v这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
" }, D& w; f& ~8 T) YDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

: a% V3 w" f: b4 V6 P: e! j0 j

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
0 f4 O1 [7 @8 @4 y$ K. j4 FDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
+ y& }* A$ z9 c  F4 y1 CIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
) x; o3 ]1 d( r2 s/ u( CThat is what i say half full or half empty.
8 e) p; D! Y  Z( Cgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
3 K; S) x# X% c& O4 UIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
0 C) A, j4 N3 _! q5 m0 oHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

) i: f$ [% _8 x6 K* p1 E, Z# l# dQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
3 B6 H. X: c1 R- ]
$ y# n4 F8 ]2 ], E  q+ L  Q
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

8 E6 l: @% b8 v/ b0 B5 a

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
0 l2 |! F4 t7 U) S1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
: w" e# {' t  Q$ Q2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

: Z! l* f$ `. {0 @% \9 r: l下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

  i* `: A9 ~) {/ H

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。