Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
4 [. Y) s+ {" S  u* rMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
$ O- y8 Y1 s( B2 |9 f. RIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

/ J2 K4 t( D% S5 P2 LSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
3 R/ k% `1 P6 [' w, _, d7 {
Jul 2007
8 {* e$ R6 y! a9 @ NA
' E$ R; i  ~4 d- ], [% E 2328
7 {! _+ f* G3 |# E. Q6 G 717
442,752
0 c' P/ u+ m$ o8 \- o: H 410,000
# A) Z) q' }$ z0 c% T+ q7 A 320
$ N, t# T7 F6 w8 L3 X' Q 28
31%
0 d1 `  @  u3 I4 c+ p
* U7 T2 m" c# R  ^+ LJun 2007
3 Q1 F/ S/ u* i' `6 ?" W NA
2661
3 a$ p  E0 \& b7 C/ `3 ~/ i" e+ X- z 1011
% \- s& I3 _. C 442,817
6 r7 I0 A6 F- _" i0 M8 q$ k7 v 409,000
8 _) V- U) X5 b$ l* u' [# J8 @. v 328
, r1 S- M1 V# k, v0 w/ M 22
38%
& d, e6 ~9 I" e
0 f* ~; j% r% O$ [9 _4 ]; t7 ?* UMay 2007
; O2 ?1 o4 f: Y  |2 B: o NA
2288
1261
( J& M. s8 ?) O9 A) O 451,216
415,000
  X5 y1 K) [- p$ D2 A 322
" g) e: n& v8 P3 v1 K. f$ O  }1 d 19
: w. K7 \3 _/ O; y 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
* f. T" F- A1 ~1 i5 b鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
  ^, X8 ~# c" j1 W这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
& A& \( b9 q! L' k存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

6 A; V( b2 k- h
% W+ Y  u9 C# V% U呵呵，太不专业了吧。
  i+ n. Q: s# e; _3 r
! I6 `6 u6 t$ X7 {0 ^新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

) _# g7 @9 Z4 X) n7 S5 `3 M. X就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
9 v( H6 ?( u0 uDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

7 S# x2 z2 U; i3 B2 ?8 ?
; w+ G6 q4 m" Y+ f0 Y9 A

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
5 ?4 i/ K' t+ g' M( GDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

8 ^9 {- g$ ^: y% k; ^

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
" i0 Y$ w- w/ h% |, H& B; lIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
, z( b. {% z% ~How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
: x& _- H! ^7 p& W( u) uIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
' d2 K7 A$ U; l0 y- h! [( NMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
0 U$ l1 o+ r- k+ Y7 D6 V  D: fIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
7 `: y1 x. k" x. [

, c* [! k  y7 tI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
& B+ ]  b8 ~2 ^# C& T$ T2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
; O2 F4 G: ~  Z: M0 h! |9 G3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。