Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
9 d) i) ]) X: x7 D' T$ sMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

5 O) H2 H* g7 ], N2 {2 Q3 gOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
  S0 f' e) p! P& @% _# w; M
7 ~- \, o9 r9 WAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

, s, G' y/ h! k- @  GJul 2007
NA
- q* n, k$ s) y+ ?" G1 c5 M 2328
717
+ U: H" z0 i, g) |8 W9 a 442,752
410,000
320
0 h  g: [9 c& H, _8 g 28
* K! t8 k0 ~) f* U& L 31%
1 V8 U' O' G5 h* C( Z
Jun 2007
, q4 J1 y! N# I. E  m! B* P NA
7 N7 {1 S9 w, X: J* I* g 2661
% v7 T( u% n! \/ { 1011
442,817
2 m' C% _8 g1 b+ h& k4 V& k$ X  } 409,000
  b1 V+ y% W! C: b 328
  I7 u9 @5 {- \/ g8 z 22
38%

3 X- Q) z( l5 p" @9 VMay 2007
NA
2288
1261
# r" m+ X& b; G- S 451,216
415,000
$ h9 V5 X# D! Z! d' v# Y2 P 322
19
& `- n4 {& [) r9 Y9 K, L 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
( e0 f1 P2 f% x! @; w! ?鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
, {$ p) Y6 p. @$ J. M2 l这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
' f; U7 O) X: S: t" ?1 n存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
) p- Y# x! i, ]9 Q* z; O% g' u鉴定完毕！

% C: ]1 a$ j' G% y5 d! V
  S: e' I3 c& ?0 m; B. b用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
2 T" @+ s+ _& k) L; a& }2 Z3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
/ o6 y1 a. }- R) @8 z4 @- n鉴定完毕！

+ j2 y$ _: E; q- j- ]% Q( b呵呵，太不专业了吧。

' H/ k6 b* s0 p$ s新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
! w5 @" I& t! ^& \+ |
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
8 r1 e, {( X6 O$ T( Y
, Y8 \9 N  U9 T( i; B6 y这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

7 O* o/ ^# Y3 y7 j! d/ d

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
- m8 j9 A8 g/ h$ nDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

/ ^/ I1 \4 ?6 p

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
: v1 I$ x0 N" G# t! o( }Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
/ l+ z3 u: X1 q. PHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
  T* J1 e# b' U* h5 k6 T0 T# HThat is what i say half full or half empty.
' h4 Y. X; Z* a! ygood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
5 B) R1 l2 c+ l7 ~. \In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

6 @" w/ X, }$ i: N' o/ lI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
5 q% I8 J2 ]0 m5 REdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
( o6 {' w1 K* ^% ^+ T" C( NIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
4 I& S% o( e7 V5 Y2 j8 c" D1 Y# HNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

* N- p. }1 D/ j- OQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
- X6 M1 @* e: y5 L$ n
" z- M9 s3 A% e* w
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
! R4 Y! V- E6 r. a3 g2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

" D8 \, H8 {; l. M& w" A4 B8 K
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

: g/ j( F8 v5 ]
" h0 |) A: G& _, l) S+ p
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
" m4 g9 @- N- A) P% ]看来，观察days inventory 更重要。