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Attention Real Estate Reporters: / C% x* t' W7 @7 \
( h& @" q% i! \, E
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat # C8 |9 J4 u0 g+ B4 s6 z
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
1 F3 p! }" G) s7 r5 R$ Qcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
4 ~" }+ u& K% s das the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging* r I. G' W# }" I
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
9 t) F( E6 ]$ S- x: |1 h& t/ Rand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
/ G" n$ c" V: U3 N! zupbeat.
4 L8 |7 p' j/ e6 }4 e' _% M; V4 D' d Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
; [. p- N7 [% o n% G2 {* X' hannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects) Z8 w7 ^+ j! O' ]( P- c( N
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
+ }& R/ E. i, S( s; \1 S# ?estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
! p1 k3 E# S, N6 Hrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
- j5 [, |( I5 c5 c Z1 G% qOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world6 @; j$ B! \$ {7 Z. E" y
including Asia Pacific and Europe.7 _9 R* w3 x8 i9 B- r4 I
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
6 h) f) y, ~( v( u- B0 _$ |8 {Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
" H, e' b/ v) m: g1 Nenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to0 W' c) ~. k# Q* z5 D
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record {( n+ r/ M# y% W9 h) d; f) Y& B
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
6 { F; I7 ^+ H' q, E0 ~ According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
+ ^8 p- a2 p5 U+ vborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
, N; D( s# j) e) I4 `* T1 S# j* }speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey& u, e4 s; P+ y0 C1 |" v4 c9 W
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US7 v U; D# Z# _4 w5 f: Y
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
4 Q* e: U2 v/ {8 xvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.$ u, V* @& G+ I: l& h& D- m- N
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian. D& A- |* Y( i$ T. Z0 ?8 z( W
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by4 t( F* [' G$ C0 B! g8 g
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land1 V8 F2 l9 Z4 u( H; B
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country$ P: G8 m6 B0 [
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
2 i4 f2 r5 T5 Bdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The! e0 r% N6 s! A3 A2 `2 P: I
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
2 z- u; O* \; i. Ztake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and7 i/ b2 l$ ?/ Y* Y/ L! u
single-family housing looks overpriced.
$ M; E4 w4 y/ M* N% e Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
4 d# K' u! A+ M$ U$ T0 N* F" Y0 otenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian1 }' e5 Z. b( v' b4 Z2 d
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push2 s: h/ W) z0 I' D. C+ g
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting+ ^; V" t+ }9 ?# j3 d, P
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
( b7 l* d4 g3 v9 N( Q: B1 F3 y2 Zand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
/ o0 C0 Z4 t0 G# |/ w2 P8 {apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary, s# w2 R# W8 _. g+ Z/ Z
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
% ~' a+ p! m* j, ^+ H: q, Tshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
" K# V* x3 O% s4 R/ S- i n0 athe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
' i) ?' ]. j" ~ sin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
6 M b2 f! `' G" ^4 Z2 d$ i* d$ s0 H( \- X
Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central( h9 B1 B7 s, C$ x
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour8 `( _/ {1 }8 N; Z
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
; A3 F# y- E5 W$ Ainto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
$ I6 r7 F; i8 Ndowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
0 |+ d/ [8 I5 ?" K2 B7 a: G2 ]projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out6 I( v9 r! k4 [/ V7 L
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
" ~; A, B# e. R0 N$ I! }9 R7 Oprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain* t0 k. Q* l7 _. p9 o
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
! P5 e; j. D! T; ZToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high+ s' Z; {0 s. E+ { d: v1 E4 }& D
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
9 a$ U) B: ^0 \: {% J9 v0 F8 p- Z* n& X0 I
Calgary/Edmonton
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: b9 d; A: }& z$ w Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one4 S, F& r) L! a( k# t' V& d5 n
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
+ I" k. E1 ?2 B. d8 ?* {; \; Sbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,* x3 ]1 ^* ]' C1 R/ S" T0 u
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.+ l, Z: z) z1 k' Q
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale2 m) U6 u% C& _7 ?
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
) N% x$ I- X; b2 m) WCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays4 Z+ k7 _( d- Y2 d# a) [
strong, this market will continue to do well.
% `; _: q/ L$ e8 l M) K0 D( o7 ]. [# V" ]% S u
Vancouver: K) ^! f+ ?2 b2 d
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is& Y5 P5 p: m- R. u% W5 s
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous; R* Y6 f9 L: a% Q
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
0 b- b; P. `: H8 Ymarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
' G3 Y+ f5 d* w+ i1 ogrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
$ L2 O3 ~' p& U' nrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
5 S) L) }7 t4 K* \for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%8 A" \7 ?5 M* T/ Q L) u) \
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
0 x. E( M& u* j" P/ d! _good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
# m( \+ c- B1 E7 o
* F! y0 q0 k# m& K5 _ Toronto1 H! m* z5 ~3 h. @- c
9 t$ q7 g% @: l2 o, o. \4 O! C Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and9 G5 A9 Y( P: }& b) i
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is4 y* S! D8 a7 b2 x7 b8 z
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
/ x3 X! Z- ~7 f7 W. R' u- jindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.5 c' z- v) d6 r1 T
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square( w/ H4 K h0 |5 [
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and* y( P6 ~( {$ i5 T0 K
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.2 g+ W8 X( W% ]* U! H+ y& S; K) \( b
3 {: r x4 s# d6 n$ b; I3 B
Montreal5 R$ g0 `8 ^; j9 r4 V
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
/ c# D4 A- N+ J# y7 G+ N, Sgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
3 \: Z, w7 @' {! lshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in5 @% W* s, \ \
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
( Q- i8 T9 @9 `; H3 H- Xsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors4 a/ a3 a; Y3 m& l1 f: _( X
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
. E, x: ]) J1 \+ _! [0 ~6 t& W9 p8 G. z x- ~* `
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years0 o, ^# R8 d! K" r4 C" E% X
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
( R4 d$ _- J8 M* b) g/ Cmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos" l+ S1 I* x7 e6 R2 p: `# g
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
6 A5 h" p) o7 }% `overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current+ e0 z% {5 P7 ^# t
prices.") v8 [+ B! Y6 e: h
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at: I3 B( l; ] u; |/ {0 g
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.' k0 N, q7 R1 |+ A
9 Z/ I9 L( G8 K) K- Z E$ J About PricewaterhouseCoopers
% r0 s4 S5 {4 O
9 l6 _3 J0 C% n PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
1 [& e5 R/ i9 t& n/ v! ?tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
; ~0 U, r' v! Jclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries& r4 ~* V1 v- K) P: C7 z; J& x. `
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
! K( n. `+ U w3 g5 kfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of* L0 |* U- O! n$ l, d
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
Y, _1 `+ j! u4 J: N. Jrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
1 [! {; P' E7 ~1 Wcountry.
/ ?9 X5 z* J2 D" a( d6 _' X "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario/ U9 j% u5 l; V8 y9 ]6 d6 c
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the( V9 z! o) x1 Y2 L3 G r8 M$ U1 \' {
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
; ~! Y4 ]* l( q# I5 M" O2 \! M7 h; feach of which is a separate and independent legal entity. z4 T% J5 z$ J1 m" f
# \5 }; N6 B/ V1 f( N9 i About the Urban Land Institute- q- S8 L" i8 f% w( \
# j. l% U& _0 F/ d$ N. M The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and1 P' h* i/ x" T6 e
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
! i+ r. \5 |6 o3 [' xleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
. M4 Y" }# n# M4 Ythriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
* [+ K5 d0 g& O; X$ H" [than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
3 p! b5 y- a: e4 n2 _disciplines.
( X2 o% J3 n1 Y8 k% T1 j The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.4 F7 l9 A$ X) C4 a
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
2 m3 x! ]+ _& S$ z0 @8 JCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is" Y" t# A. a! T/ N' B( D
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be) f% Q" |" ~& Y8 A* ~5 i1 v7 W" Q
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
/ y# I; d4 z x9 \) x0 Z. K2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
3 ~! k! Y. B( ]: q( GHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
0 Y0 p3 o7 A- D/ RPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please! |) t0 e8 }! `# I$ J
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on! |" h' |; ?- W. t
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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- S1 B" h) X4 ~( C: p# k2 `/ H
8 z- Y# k- v; H$ E* e. Y# oFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,/ k0 Q7 f3 j" `
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com5 M1 l0 s3 s) W. ]( L1 D9 K3 c
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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