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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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. ]6 ?" r2 N& v: g/ |# {) _( lDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
- I" f- U) b- c+ e( s5 b, I! a' K1 z TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
3 `) a( C0 y: i/ _0 _- xcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern3 o* x, g0 a; H! d& H
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
7 t3 Q+ ?# \+ ?% tTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)/ ?! U# H( Z$ ^( i1 m
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more- O4 K0 @3 I$ x: u" S
upbeat./ u1 A! K$ f! o& V
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded7 g9 _4 u$ {/ t# N3 Z/ d A
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
0 D+ T& N* e9 o5 ?0 iinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
, d( J& w+ m! \: Pestate experts, including investors, developers, property company. Y6 N; m* h6 L3 z: B; c) _/ B
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.6 }3 i2 p, A' u9 E1 \ H
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world$ y" j. e1 z4 @- y
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
4 T" g& B7 W( D1 t According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
4 v0 j8 d+ _' Y6 y( g+ b& G2 aReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment% ~- _; D( V, X: F
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
7 Y* Z7 I. g0 k# k: W, nbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record0 z5 K# m( [' L* E0 r
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."+ d( j: l+ v2 C( E2 y
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the- h( l i' t& x% Y' H0 B. y$ }
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game$ v5 L+ @5 }1 V# C! |" s5 ?3 g
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey) K' P, S( j8 d+ C6 m
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
3 H/ v+ M. {! X1 { o5 Mcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be0 }" y. v0 b( O4 o3 g# h
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.! \5 N5 q& G; e' ~; K
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian( I, e( s0 p: m7 w' U( M* r
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by! o6 O5 F! e1 X6 R
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land7 a( n: T6 k5 g1 j. X* H
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country9 B; l1 S# ]/ h0 d) v8 u, t# p
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating( ?' f9 V( Y7 s3 _; y
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The5 m! N' A! z9 p" V6 r! S) k% k
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
0 g4 y. n0 Q; ?* M4 p- ]take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and8 k$ |4 _) O/ L8 S& z' B
single-family housing looks overpriced.+ C" L4 m7 i7 p! h6 s! T
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
0 }4 f$ |; P2 X1 mtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
. a: [$ \9 i4 |" b+ zmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
9 {; i6 _$ k {; _higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
7 A6 p* m4 u3 m0 rnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,7 V& R& Q6 b' e: Q; O: F4 a$ b/ K
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
6 U( }' F6 }7 \$ C$ Y/ I3 kapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary" M4 _9 T. f( a+ H- N
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing/ J8 p: Y- T- J. i6 P& P8 ]( u \
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
# n |% x$ m3 R7 R) ithe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development% C1 ~- I- a3 Q( s8 e
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.1 e0 \/ x8 L1 Y5 h
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Canadian Markets to Watch2 k+ X3 \5 \" Q* {. c( u7 W
& u% N4 l/ i! g# X1 n2 { The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
7 E) Q/ E. m+ jcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour" X4 v. g0 l/ T& ~. Q- o& I
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back+ p* u4 F3 G0 T
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in# [/ g, w# U& E& Y& F5 T: K
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
3 ~3 I1 z7 {. c1 M6 G7 Wprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out7 N, q8 K0 u' Y' v/ c: t1 C
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
: {0 {4 j9 n$ k; B4 v# D. v" nprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
7 |. C5 E# R" q+ E# k" g1 ]" N, Zwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.8 `3 s4 b. `& f4 L0 A
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high% N7 _, B3 t; f7 u" e
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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) ^- I) @; k5 y5 s5 t% `7 U Calgary/Edmonton: C. M, y; m- a. ^( X% |, J
9 n8 I1 s# `+ {6 \ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one; I5 T3 [. O1 S/ V3 A( B
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a7 d' k' ^. O" m) T
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,; ?/ y5 }; a) n
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
6 |9 L0 ]$ D# F1 T, v& ]9 }Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
, v' B8 t0 g- a$ x& ^8 wHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
0 R5 b: j9 m7 r) a( m& PCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays; Y' k3 k- X; J) ]
strong, this market will continue to do well.9 G7 D, L7 Y( e# o
) w: j6 T& _/ S! Z7 T Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
: X1 k7 S. T* i9 ?4 r: `booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
3 Y _ B2 Y6 Q2 I0 ?: Y. }real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the; J# p* S; l1 M5 z
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
1 L' B& y8 \3 d7 k" @growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy: t7 s7 Y1 m1 _2 [$ P) i
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
3 J* `# o6 a n+ z8 o1 Lfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
& u4 A& E* P/ qfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very4 o V& ]3 P6 g; B' U+ ]2 S, ]& _* f1 _
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.. G9 n; T; H9 F6 V' R
8 \7 T" D9 Y' A; R2 d Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and6 I- I. A+ p: V0 N. f! B% G
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is& Y" D( @) Q( _4 `; J( } m' f
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing" ?. i) d0 s) U; `
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
! S( e% X. [8 W; oThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
& T6 t* S9 A, tfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
) ^ L! a1 r" B; Y6 y$ @% S. cApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall, }4 w c# T, l9 X4 o& z2 n/ b
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up1 ~: @4 g. F- i" e) `+ R
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
, P( M0 @, ~1 ^' k5 sCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
* t+ Y3 L# B6 Y# i0 M0 X4 a$ t4 @sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
& O! a, V# n' v3 i& z; zhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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$ `6 J6 t2 n; b- ^9 Q3 u9 s( P The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years' \8 ~4 B6 R* k1 _; i
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
8 Y. a/ C0 f5 s1 n4 |; zmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos+ k7 c7 ^8 I7 e& l. X- ^. ]* j
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
* r; i9 h7 K' G* M- Q7 G3 moverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current. R2 t# R1 u) L0 a" }1 b# j
prices."& D; \8 f# ?/ x
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
1 |) l# p( n1 O& s, {+ owww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.0 V/ F$ X4 x3 L
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers9 D7 T0 i& [) B; n1 H
% c" I0 Q: E0 ~2 f# {6 u" Q0 X$ o0 x+ r PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,' e" T' e& D4 n; g$ `# Z2 i. t
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
2 v0 Q; X1 B$ [ B% wclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
) [! ^" y/ p' M* |4 Wacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop! T- X, M$ F5 f- Z5 b4 v, S
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
: H; h7 A: M( }9 r/ Z( vexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its) d+ V" z& X5 `7 v8 q0 }7 l5 f1 }
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the/ F8 U! g9 P+ A5 g/ c% Y: d
country." z7 ], V4 H% ]- k2 _4 Y
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
" @* E% G: a( n' k5 z. u$ v9 Nlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the6 N6 \9 A E& z8 V
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
' X; Z/ J3 _; e) zeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.) I3 b* W; @ m
8 z3 ?# m, B% C( @( S About the Urban Land Institute
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3 H& ^, W, w2 H, V% W/ P The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and+ L2 w( O E# \! q6 ~9 e# ?
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide, d7 G" |- v4 `+ \6 u/ O+ C% K) E
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
`$ _) `: e& Y3 X+ kthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more7 A. V- Z9 z0 h& h. s3 }5 s
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
# u v5 d# `4 Adisciplines.
: v; i/ ~ `* O- { The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.$ u6 q( ~( O0 J& d2 }
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District/ A( P$ S3 x2 }+ \/ {! p& c( G
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is- V; }# o& |4 ~# S$ ~
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be# a1 }, Y; S. d9 P
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th, A" o. ^: X: Q* v' k: [5 A8 \1 F/ \
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
: ]0 j$ {( R/ z7 S6 Z1 bHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,# L9 C N9 s8 I: q% o8 V1 L# _
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
F( C- D$ w5 Ucall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on, E- @: l \# k/ ^2 v& A& u7 @
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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2 D) a/ N/ c! _- D& vFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,9 G" f% q& P% W) c( M) p1 @8 S" Y
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
9 N" e/ `* A: L6 r" \+ d, g$ j. H' Ihttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html5 I- t* g w& H0 ~4 V% A* a
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