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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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4 T: p4 X9 P6 ^9 [Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat * C/ v$ V1 |3 H* l+ q# P# M0 [
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US5 X: J1 w9 V- G3 ?/ Y
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern _5 Z! h6 l* ]! U6 ~4 [5 U. R
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
# w9 g, D- g6 f% V% Q( k- n: iTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
4 w) V ]# M: S' v* cand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more' I4 J4 {. D& Q
upbeat.! a+ r. M5 ?) x5 I1 B
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
6 E4 s3 y$ T! d6 i+ y5 X) uannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects, D. T/ k5 ?+ E# X: Q5 a$ j1 F
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
$ [8 `+ E* v0 testate experts, including investors, developers, property company
$ ?5 {$ c* r# t/ c1 grepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.6 m$ G, F# R( ?+ J
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
4 }9 z& g% Y- Q- N; D$ G, dincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
8 m/ A/ U- A* [& H ] According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
$ Z0 g7 |( V: R/ }) j6 eReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
5 Z# m1 {3 h9 X/ J/ s; H" Qenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
4 f( ~3 x3 n: L5 T! bbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record/ }3 ]- n, x [, y/ [
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
9 W; p i6 S: b% ?# P3 A According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
8 U0 M2 X/ v0 z3 @! Y. yborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
4 _7 ], ]* t& p! o3 m, d$ Rspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey) t4 I+ H1 S9 L0 e, f
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
* U0 B' U3 e8 K8 E7 H9 u4 O; E3 Ycorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be' {; o7 E: N9 L. @+ c
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
" O8 P$ Y: P9 ^2 K$ | The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
8 K5 U- b1 Z; B0 {respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
" M# U; m* l" S8 h" {; acommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
1 h/ P& h% Q; t4 J c5 }development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country8 f* K2 M6 S$ {* r G
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
3 f; {6 s8 J) x" U- j% S) O! K0 {development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
: M9 o9 e2 e2 G9 a, N- h* ` tresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to, A! m& b) c8 P: Q
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and/ I" K* c7 }' u2 G
single-family housing looks overpriced.
: H0 d2 u' h& Y- Z3 P Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with2 j. l7 u3 T5 W0 m0 O: |0 L: g
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian: o, Y- n% B' F7 v/ Y
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push9 _3 J `0 d* G, e' ?- [, j' U) l
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
/ X- L, T% {9 m V! o- snew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
7 @1 m5 Z2 g; ]2 y% m0 f! f6 K! i4 F% land most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental; F i: l- a+ _: L4 r. J" R
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary! J R# q$ \- D% [7 h. l
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing& h8 N6 g( Z/ R2 \# Y( w
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into4 M! M( d9 [$ f: A5 j
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development {# q4 p; S+ V6 _
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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8 J* f0 F6 O' a# r0 J( I Canadian Markets to Watch- ^% O; ?0 q/ q3 {+ z9 ~. ~
% ~8 ^* S' a, {5 c
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central5 P4 _, ~1 m/ ]8 }6 N( J) s! W
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
5 M' u9 w! W1 t% n. dneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
' j8 f: s! N7 K" [/ Pinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in7 {& o+ m3 k6 i( ^* `- S- p
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
& D; Z5 m0 ?8 \2 k! Vprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out& E C& z$ ~/ L
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment8 s' ]0 H* f; Z* T
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
: N4 S2 y3 @) L4 c7 \whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
. b0 r0 p& o; {! oToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
& b/ T" S; i6 oratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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5 M7 R7 o( N9 f$ I# Z4 Q L Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
! B- l* b+ \2 F0 K0 N0 _" Yboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a ~" w1 ?$ t# o; a
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
# i4 F, w0 e2 J0 x! _48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.3 G7 @! ]1 J2 h6 @ b
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
, A" N' N1 n, l4 ~) CHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
# b4 ?! O( B* O. v* V* {6 sCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
5 ]+ |' P0 ~! M0 i4 \) n3 k0 tstrong, this market will continue to do well.
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3 [% X2 ]6 i) s* w Vancouver
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3 U2 h; _2 R$ B& i6 F& m$ } Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
f3 L- h. \, obooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
1 U6 k2 z- o d, _* Z8 sreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
7 F$ @& a. M( }1 e3 y7 ^" |/ Cmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a5 @7 p% e4 Q c
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy5 }% G! h9 `/ [0 [8 M' l2 o" P- v" _' h
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%- g5 g# A9 I7 @
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
# }4 d' f% Z7 j0 Efor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
* H1 {" g e7 tgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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# F2 f* u/ v/ p. q, M Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
+ F+ O' M& }6 ~4 Q9 _/ |: {manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is8 d8 T& D9 a0 C4 B4 y+ m( X' f0 i; }2 m
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
n- j( k8 W2 i1 d N* c% g. Nindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.- A" n, Z g0 Q$ Q( Y2 B3 {
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
3 N$ M* [% q: C- {& Rfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and6 H8 ~! O) A6 |% H
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.; C1 Y) U9 [: R2 X
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Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
4 ~: r, ?8 v+ {7 q5 B# kgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
3 t7 A8 q! z! F& M" `shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in. u" M6 E; g9 a( q- ?4 w* l
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate& F+ P* p$ ]' U4 Z8 I0 E, Z
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
4 P* W* _0 i0 |( R: G2 g) ^( W7 m! Bhigher as a "hold" recommendation.; }! K' f; _" |6 C1 m
& ^& a+ z o7 [ i! @. }% W4 J, u The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years' x5 `; [$ W- g# X. g
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
4 |. W5 E% A# Wmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos( c w3 s! L. Z$ L
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest" B; S0 N/ k4 p6 o; U6 a0 u" c
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current- }9 D3 R; ~4 v# f7 |9 t/ f
prices."
$ m$ @2 V9 [% I$ W' b' L A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at5 x; {( G6 t3 L( g
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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* I l8 s8 T8 }8 j0 K M5 o About PricewaterhouseCoopers
9 _5 {6 ~3 _2 s+ t1 X' [8 e( {, Y n. a& p o
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,; N) |6 E" N/ @3 R
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its; t' z( V3 ?4 s0 h
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries, z0 V8 @ b0 C: _! h
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
8 B3 k) a3 w, k, gfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of9 m- c, r) m+ x, [' g# E- s
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its3 \# I1 E2 Q3 o6 _7 ~/ a
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the0 }* O' Z. f& L# w9 J v8 X
country.
1 T# ?: r% Y# {! x0 r5 M# w7 ? "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario7 q; F6 r0 k& i0 A
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the: Z$ g: T& q4 I! s- b0 t+ w
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,* c) ~9 \$ v" J" [ d8 g
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.- M8 u2 |1 f5 b
" O6 w4 A5 s& `/ t, O About the Urban Land Institute# i& N# [1 T- h6 d1 h7 U
3 u' a* U9 S! {9 o The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and ]& ]- @ T0 X* W1 ]
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide9 |8 Z- K: e- s' i! J
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating, ]2 j7 X$ ]* N' }1 x1 ~
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more+ C$ @) R; f- A( h6 S6 _
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
, \- W. C% @7 m# G6 Ndisciplines.
% |1 K/ A+ [; c7 O The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
# c% [) |- |+ C9 G d5 \With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District0 H v( r, d/ f! r
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
( s8 X1 k' _. ^0 {0 Jnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
5 }! U$ \. e9 y+ Yhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,7 ]6 v9 q$ W6 b& O
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
1 a- f5 g% v3 \" V: r6 sHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,) n( m& c2 S& P7 H
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
3 g9 P5 j1 O& B6 qcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on! E3 G' G# ^" F: _& Q2 l0 S4 s
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,, H! A6 f: c8 D' o" i- \9 O, m
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
& a9 @8 n/ x0 W. _http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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