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Attention Real Estate Reporters: - |; t$ ?% `4 n
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
# N0 O2 X! O+ H4 d- C' K, v TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US$ x- ^4 L- s, M( q: T6 L: ^6 ?
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
1 w0 i/ a ^8 g- H8 }4 K, o2 G9 _as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging0 G* }: A2 D4 i
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)2 h8 }# ]4 g8 u
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
- W* ?: q0 G, [; `/ pupbeat.3 z- ?8 I$ X6 c) a
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded) b6 {4 R: a6 v5 |+ ^" H, y% R J
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects2 o1 |8 Y) v8 B5 k
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real2 b; o" ~2 r. R# K* m& \9 T2 _
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company& @: d% p% R, U1 A
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
; L- i) i+ A( \6 bOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world- ^; N/ C2 J5 L/ h
including Asia Pacific and Europe., m0 q3 Y9 d: R4 y) S" K% Z9 l
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
# A3 M; ^, Q9 h9 ^, h# I; {1 @Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment6 F4 [) c' q0 j
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
( y4 ? f& g \be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
l# T% q9 }, X& s" e9 e' y+ Yhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
; b' E/ }) ~$ G- o4 G According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
. K: F0 E8 f& w, kborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
3 A. [9 Z( s' J6 t+ v& cspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
/ |0 _/ ~; H; J% o# xremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US% W2 w4 l8 u8 E- K
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be, d0 Y: l7 J5 ] ?+ t! i
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.4 X' q) V$ N! x
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian* R2 w: k( Y( t5 Z
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
9 m- I6 E4 S1 k7 I3 [. o- Gcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
/ H0 Y6 G, d2 o7 Y$ Edevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country) @$ {+ Q7 W) b7 e
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
: b- p- V# M/ ?8 D5 s+ r9 [development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The) k4 a4 U; `5 t6 r6 B6 n
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to8 @- S ~2 b# ~) ` }. x& [
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
! u( w1 I9 u$ Jsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
6 @/ z; K& {0 C( p8 f# E Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with7 f& {' C( u; o" L5 i
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
- [2 z! ~& t8 i0 @. s& [. Umetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push2 t; ^) c6 l) n! j
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
: |: M' H1 Q v1 [" E! anew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
9 t V, m( m. Uand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
; B- b! E8 Z5 L) A) @6 Xapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary7 M& G+ H: L3 X- S
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
; V8 a1 k/ V; Y( }shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
" [! k/ Z! S; Ethe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development7 l4 R; q9 ?/ T5 Z7 R: X2 L% z# ~
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.. M( H4 B' S7 J5 @6 W2 g3 ~2 y
t. H+ T4 x- {" D: f$ L/ Q
Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
* D* p& I3 U$ ]% F; acities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour" R3 F. q& b2 S" y- E
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
! l1 I" t% l( z1 h% |$ j9 ?0 Pinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in; c* n L. f8 Y; m
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical* i) v8 N3 W9 ]( p7 s, s: o
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
' Q# K" t2 q7 |! g7 Bwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment/ y: a! w3 ?# x- L: a, p
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain9 K/ b1 ~- l+ J! `; A
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.5 R$ Y% F$ u$ N9 d# T1 Y
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high9 u" Y3 L1 L n$ Z
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
, G& v. C/ E+ t
. e' h1 C( b, l Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one5 Y" A; H- z5 x" Z8 ~4 W
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a9 w$ A6 Z" z& r" Z3 N
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,1 h# f( H5 R6 z5 x. U
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.' Z6 \* H9 m) N! W, R* K
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
) w, C5 _; s; Z% z4 I% JHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
8 N. ]7 C: j: b# _0 F: NCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
$ e# X) S ]6 g4 E G( jstrong, this market will continue to do well.9 e- | e/ H6 y; r7 t. \) h. r
( L# k: M \! h3 {- |6 b Vancouver
" K6 a7 m1 F. I; d8 d! S& U
( P! _3 j) t- `9 N Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is% m' s; m" [4 L0 T& d3 M" g6 U2 A, s
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous; c/ \# s9 T7 b" L$ T! Y3 i
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
' a. A a3 C1 B5 z# c0 m& Z% Nmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
. t# }6 K0 I4 x" N7 P; p7 b5 ~% m' tgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy6 ^# _9 V3 L2 R' S( [. n
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%9 v3 l. u& c! [% P/ I: V! r
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
" n5 \. w' k% V5 @. c: L( i- ]for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
; {" a" Q. f# {. y2 `% B! Ngood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.- H i% H5 ]5 H, e3 T$ e9 q& A n- P
5 ^. T' a) q- v5 o" [# Y
Toronto1 g7 N, r/ ?' T& t @3 q* D7 W
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and; w" G& z. V5 A& F' C
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is' N0 @3 |, M% G# [& _4 s
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing% v" j, o. i2 O3 ~ G/ H
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.$ X6 ?! F# U. f8 k/ Q
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square* x0 F" y, u' V5 t. E3 g( h d$ O! y
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and* {3 P) L9 N% h( e+ v) B3 W
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
% u3 _& _; v/ A$ w5 [
/ ^. @8 j& M3 C Y Montreal6 I, J& E9 h, V+ u: U9 U% k# f3 `
* J6 \5 _* W( B1 o+ o: o Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall/ z- T9 t# V& \
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
$ @* v6 a7 H& @; `# a c( [- U- b4 Eshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in6 ^9 x! N5 Y+ F0 P* C
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
# o( L' p. o' isectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
% O3 Q. j6 J( X0 N" Ehigher as a "hold" recommendation./ ?6 V$ T& b& Q& h2 O2 g
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
( j% ^$ h* N) ?( rinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy* J* y, n Q3 K8 s4 K; X# m. S" n; T
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
9 N8 m2 s3 B$ A& H0 Ynear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
- A7 c$ p1 w% R0 c8 @overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
" C( B; }3 q% ?, hprices."
3 H5 J, x$ A7 C( T1 X8 Y8 |6 u A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
3 U! L1 O1 A9 c9 G. i; u( Z- ywww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.9 P6 F/ m4 Q( ?0 W
1 L' U! c1 P$ G: e I3 H1 \ About PricewaterhouseCoopers/ R: o, D$ D1 U& [' c
( Q0 w3 t" Y1 A9 K
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
9 a, E* {& }. ]4 k$ Q. F; ttax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
( K1 P. I' v* P2 hclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries" h# ^+ l; k7 y& Z" O
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
% n5 q3 e! u- g& Ofresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of; d) ~% v6 o1 K# M" ]
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its {% K4 D9 G e B- o
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
% M3 t; ^+ G( _- V, Y( Q& x- T5 tcountry.9 e R9 ]8 X) V& J4 P2 J
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
3 ?7 c. C5 I% [: Y& Climited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
9 ^9 B! V" A8 w1 |1 R+ hPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
9 k" x6 l9 y8 b( C' \3 ceach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
/ ^' B- ^5 C- ^2 K( K
7 F5 P3 e9 t' @* ^& Y" g. i' [ About the Urban Land Institute
6 w, C$ s# Y6 _8 O, b
- X9 N1 n) @: r { The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
. p4 h. |* E. \& V6 Uresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
4 H3 }. r0 _. R, [$ Nleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating" [" P: J" S; u. {! X
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more: S* E: [ o- n7 ~! o
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development: m8 z9 v3 Y1 U# ~. n
disciplines.
% O( R6 p: L, {9 i( c7 {7 Q) y The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.' Q$ D8 i0 n4 C5 T
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
?5 @; v9 ?0 M; q6 ~Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
9 D0 O5 L. V. v% bnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be1 u( I0 h% T' X
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,, r4 `- X0 R9 x: A" U! ?
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
/ e2 g$ G5 f! {Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
8 H% R. w2 r7 n& \3 V* H/ JPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please3 ]/ P% P- o5 [
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
; E# m$ y" D) B. |# A- |2 E! sthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
7 j! r! |4 I+ U9 N: E' Q6 t2 V$ a. z/ |1 ^7 X
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8 ]4 N' Z& k* o1 v; ?5 @( ~0 `For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,% q/ M0 H3 ]. h. ^$ x+ S$ k+ R
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
) ^! S( y. t# H& O% k) h& Mhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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