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Attention Real Estate Reporters: , h1 }2 p- X* l- B
# k6 ]% r& \8 E, k; EDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat ! y$ V) v6 S& P, H3 l7 J4 Z
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US! e* |4 x# m* k3 D( g$ r3 D
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
2 `( r! ~' b. Sas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
# Y2 W% P- V, ~- e7 tTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
8 ]/ u4 m- ~! x+ M, Eand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
; E* ^% x# L# eupbeat.* g0 e1 R% m0 [# W$ ~* S
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded/ [( X" ^6 p/ e) W2 L* q
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects0 F: O2 t7 ]: S6 X7 y
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real+ P. Q7 K) l/ H( G" r
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
" @5 w* I* W: U* n. |. Trepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
& {( e5 s' x, ?% V6 q xOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
) X* Y. l o j8 m! V, G3 [including Asia Pacific and Europe.
* K6 C; G# ]5 w9 k' g According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian% m H: Q }$ I+ w$ I+ L- x
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
- X: U1 \% P7 \environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
$ p$ |) B5 l( T) ybe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
8 [( @3 T" K! N+ p2 j+ ]highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."4 u/ `- ^5 ^! q7 r) z- ^1 E
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
" i. C; i. V( `$ m+ |4 Gborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
1 s7 e ]6 {# _( a$ v/ W$ F6 C6 especulators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey9 x2 r3 g* Y& |8 v+ D6 F1 b
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
9 a2 a. T" S; G8 T. W2 l! L. Zcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be$ R6 Q8 M- Z4 W, n j2 B0 W4 ]9 W
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
0 c9 V6 j$ J# @- F/ q- b The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian* [5 _$ j$ W- M4 g |* m% L: X
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
1 S7 O4 Y6 e( R3 Y# r& R/ Ccommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
# R( _: r9 G" i/ M* odevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
* B8 `7 l' o7 x- l) k! @& Fespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating& [- D p$ ~+ c. Y
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The3 F' b; G0 B2 K) `
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
+ o9 c& x- w: \0 Btake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
3 x) A7 ]& k7 u, V! xsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
0 u( Q" Z* n2 J3 @0 T/ P, d% W Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
, U0 ]* W( w8 U# o4 Dtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
) j/ K0 b* j1 lmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push: _; G4 Y+ L4 d" z* h
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
7 S7 _* |9 Z( S/ T! i* R) Gnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
2 R" X$ f1 P, M; yand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental h7 `' s6 o3 B) j1 x+ r
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
( [, V/ c. @1 \5 j& cwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
" L- f/ [% N: U% ~3 Z4 mshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into, g2 t4 K7 b/ h. y
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
+ t5 O( h3 ~: M! ^1 Uin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.# _7 M, [! \" Q
+ m: }7 f6 l. h, o3 M: m% Q Canadian Markets to Watch4 H4 I- }" j5 X' b& P1 P
0 t; [; l! N! E$ i' [1 o4 A$ r- T The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central9 T# ?' k" W( g* E
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour3 X9 p u" N8 G, \& q& ~, i& C
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back1 r2 e8 n1 i. Y: N2 y" s4 \
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in2 w$ w& H" @9 t. ^+ ] l
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical- G+ a" o. p7 _
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out) |& z+ _4 } y% ] K! f2 ^
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
' D/ o3 o6 j3 T9 }& M* }5 Wprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
: r9 @- `& M5 S' nwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.) V, }4 D* K2 Q6 N1 G
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high6 `( }3 _5 [$ x; w
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.5 G! V! I, u% @% H9 g" c. M
* N: r6 Q8 E. r0 z
Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one4 a" l3 t7 v, _" u
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
3 E- G' d4 f" p0 q! v) hbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
- ?5 t* v- `6 l2 X, X* T5 H48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.. K2 J! }; C+ ?# g$ P% g, E) Y
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
, v) Y+ d& n/ Q9 _' r( y: m/ sHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
6 C3 t, C7 p+ z) d8 m( o# ZCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
! E! f4 A1 e+ a, V6 Sstrong, this market will continue to do well.- {7 W# E8 y$ p, z9 }
6 c( B' a Q- O0 I/ C Vancouver
. P. u$ |9 U! ^+ H/ E1 v0 ~, T* t9 e6 o$ g
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is6 u% l" S7 R% }! K/ O) a" s
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous# j/ p3 ?! ^2 q- i' }
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the5 W- J9 J2 M3 W, F0 d0 N2 c
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a. m2 g: s* x* {5 @+ |+ ]1 n
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy+ [/ E. P) M+ f8 x h
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%, X. e& Y6 _7 u+ ]9 I
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
* F) n% o+ `6 l; k8 y( lfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
: p1 j, {: P) w: J: T( Agood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects., O$ K4 h7 s, R% V- D
g7 O) F: S' V p; ^ Toronto# }" c4 Q6 L: ]: g4 V
8 g2 v/ V2 r- q" O! I- {8 r/ T Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and4 v' R _; k2 p5 f ?8 }4 z9 J' o f/ @
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is. T0 L) B: d! Z; T% [
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
8 ?/ I0 S; C8 Q/ m* R: q& `/ jindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
% j# _: u; ~* i9 u3 b: U3 iThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square2 e- D' N/ N1 ]
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and( {( _& J4 X m* I) w
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.& Y% d# K! E* A/ H$ Q& B& R( D) t& z
; z A5 Z" B4 N$ X) o( a* l Montreal T) h' _; Z# P$ {9 ?! k9 |# _! C
; t* M h. O+ S# c. x; L
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
, z+ f' b$ K C& jgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up9 `7 G3 B4 K& {; w% @% f
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
9 M/ N, X3 j5 K. lCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate! ^( ?$ N7 \! x( D; f
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
7 z; a( [7 n% F( C* N# {higher as a "hold" recommendation.
& ?$ ?0 b/ I3 k& c- v$ e
& l+ w& K! k2 \* e The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years, r1 p' ?4 J( h$ M& q
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy* F" O# x) D% i, R6 z5 p: @$ j' l
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos# P& T9 a$ ^+ m+ V/ z3 @, x5 s
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest7 e! v* T3 P& U9 Y" F/ f
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
/ y- W. b' ?/ H& L' F; ?) lprices."! M; M6 g; T( e! F0 q* `
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at; {3 ~1 i3 J+ L
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers3 C4 Q P" e5 Z( L
. y2 |& O0 r6 N6 X1 X; @0 Z/ ~ PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,% g1 v$ d2 Y& y' K
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
( u- \* }8 Z9 j4 |; p- e1 ]clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
- h4 k1 i3 P- J; a* U' a4 wacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
( c7 E+ O9 k7 G. L/ g4 Pfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of2 H5 ]+ T/ F! w$ T3 Y( Z
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
8 o- C4 U' H$ m: u% T4 i: f# nrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the) Q& c5 F! r% F( N2 b
country.6 [! s1 r6 C' }* b- y6 c4 C
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
! l) X n* H5 c' dlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
; j6 z9 L9 a, |" EPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,! Y& q! P: x+ [" s! V& G! y1 j3 M
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity." ?* A* n5 K' M( S9 c& F6 [
7 C# J; K) u5 f/ W1 ~ About the Urban Land Institute
2 g8 K. C! A* u4 r8 b& T, T
" r1 _6 |+ }7 \# ~4 ] The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and7 v. }/ F3 i o4 x- ?
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide& _& {+ e8 L* l$ c+ k/ _5 I
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating1 c% o5 ?& v( M, @0 m! F0 u
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more* D& l' Q* k) I
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
- M" I5 P5 ~9 D a1 J+ Ddisciplines.
1 _ m# R2 W( o" o The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
& d3 z2 ^: U7 |With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
$ g& ~% I0 W$ t- A# ?2 pCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is( z: Q* t; n4 y0 |5 q- U Y
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
, x) w* Z0 Y2 }( Y; @hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
2 E% h# P, D; y" ]8 O, m2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
3 G9 T4 r3 M$ S) Q1 IHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,6 }) ^& I, B* s& h6 B
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
! |8 J: G1 M* K! a0 Rcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on7 \4 ^3 U! h! V( A
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
' u! F6 A3 ~9 a* K5 x# o9 H/ X4 g& _3 C0 u. S0 f4 [. P
7 M. `1 f; E( `5 A
5 ^# ~: [) j, }, Q* z3 x- } GFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
" a7 ?( ~0 v0 k/ j( u) w- s" W(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com, w/ W& Z0 f. z( K
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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