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Attention Real Estate Reporters: , g) K7 _2 Y9 x* W3 S& j* W- s; L- j; J
: L1 u3 d( i7 m( U: P" [Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
, _6 H' F1 G5 F* m; J8 C% e TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
( ~5 e& D3 A" _$ t- x1 `commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern5 Q! M* H$ w: Q D7 l2 P
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging* h' V9 k% d3 h" k! \& |9 v
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)" V* O9 U/ v% ^& {: ^$ ]
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more) I" T. U" r8 o$ g% q% s- {% p
upbeat.
$ [: N0 x% f- O Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
' E/ ?' h0 I3 L6 |$ z1 x# L* Gannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects5 t* s- K6 I* Z9 }1 h7 d! V
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
7 Z' [- D! N5 n- { ]estate experts, including investors, developers, property company9 m' `. [" \" e
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.1 H7 ], Z) E% y
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world* G* X4 B9 J5 U8 E
including Asia Pacific and Europe. F. s: `2 t. _. m) @
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
6 L9 h5 }1 w' o2 zReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
7 f7 I0 ~0 _$ }environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to. i4 v, f/ v; p% E: A
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
7 e) ^+ a3 x; a0 B$ a3 Ehighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."2 @6 m$ v* l/ ~
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the/ b7 k7 X0 u2 w) D- M0 ]
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
! ~# n3 K9 g) B$ N5 O5 t/ k! Qspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey v" C9 Q9 P7 L- w- p2 {
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
2 H1 r" ^* J6 B( ocorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be+ g& n+ H$ j3 J% o- S$ Q2 Y' c5 R
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
" O! r p2 ?( K6 v The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian6 v) ?0 j' q2 m; I ~% b
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by# f) M" O: @* {; T1 b3 C- k: l
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land$ e) e j' y* n6 G2 p
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country- g) q+ W1 k/ E7 w/ _
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
7 F7 Q/ M% L2 N2 V+ W2 E6 mdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The+ L9 G% K+ K; @7 M9 }
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
' z$ Z& S& a! [6 @ Y' ^8 Ktake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
, _. c5 Q; K( Q- I/ Msingle-family housing looks overpriced.
$ f* s% b* a8 \, F- E7 _ Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with$ E; x( a. I) h( A+ R: Q; F
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
( U9 w2 Q8 r& k* h1 bmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
" ~7 F( v0 s! w9 @$ W4 x, Jhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
9 m8 t8 }" i# e- }' ]0 O# [new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,) m3 y3 B+ B6 v+ p Z7 A& V- u
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental- J) s. V. z6 `
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
6 {$ m$ Y2 F" @; @western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing2 ?0 R; b7 X: B& a
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
; g* D1 r, [" T. Q+ [the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development; M8 ]) Z b, Y$ n4 P
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.) I1 L& s- q2 t1 \0 }3 ~( y
6 F/ o; P {' r! A2 D
Canadian Markets to Watch" F( b' }$ C. q, d( w! W
& `1 A4 a( N# l- g5 W/ U The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
+ y# q! g. m# s' Y3 J2 }+ |/ zcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour) C& f. I7 x1 o/ d+ ^* B
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
; ?( H. d) J4 b; j# E2 ?into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in# Q9 C d+ s, Y' l3 q) G/ p2 R4 |8 n
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical1 W: u3 i9 q w+ E f; b
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out' q2 p! E" O$ Q j
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
8 `0 _5 q, \+ C5 \prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
; q3 G9 d8 c7 T! {; @whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.- ~9 o/ o, }' O: i1 w( Q% P
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
: \( } K+ l1 t! Xratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging., n. G2 w; S4 r$ I1 l( ~- z3 F
& ]$ q8 Q2 U# F Calgary/Edmonton) W3 @$ w5 j0 D3 m
; Q4 V) S" V! K9 N2 t0 }+ f& k Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one: l. y( c2 o5 w
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
$ D( W! E4 ~. ^6 |1 V3 Sbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution, T$ k8 c7 B! j) V4 G! C$ B( P
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
' P9 ]! K1 ?% \. N, y4 W, uFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale' K9 E! C+ E+ @. Z3 }
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the, A; d, } P4 w
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
- ~* a) ]* c+ P" V. a' B' u' nstrong, this market will continue to do well.1 Y+ V' z @( ~$ h$ s( `0 x
4 Q' j4 T2 F* h2 Y Vancouver4 ~# t H+ h. T% T: Y# D9 y$ Y
# z! @* n7 q v3 ^0 I Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is0 ^, ~0 c" f# _4 Q+ b& B4 H6 @
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous# L4 u( x: ^! H- d
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
* |; l) w$ N0 N& M+ H* b& `market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a7 G% I9 j# L' m( |+ W
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy$ r6 F% A& K! _9 b8 ?4 o
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%8 i, y; L, j4 x; P5 I6 C+ p8 ~) i
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%% t3 f) u$ B; l: d& \ H
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very7 f' L7 M9 q' `2 l
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
! O S# g7 g8 t1 P. u( g& t6 f3 r1 \. _5 L! z; p; h4 ] F+ ?8 N
Toronto% T" a( t/ |7 @* H( G$ ]9 g7 R
8 U* L' O" z# [
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and/ K4 N& f" G e1 X$ w
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is5 V( X. {7 z! i2 A
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing+ b1 |2 k+ `9 Y$ f' ?/ I, j
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
8 I/ E' n( g) uThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
7 v! X1 B( c4 d, u dfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
7 ?9 {) X! u, j5 r1 v* MApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.: K+ f9 _. m7 ^1 R
+ H( J1 o, \5 ~! v! r- k Montreal$ K( E4 _+ O0 ~4 r
6 L1 v- T& i) N7 v+ Y Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
8 ?% ~# I$ @$ @$ ~4 P. Ogrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
3 ?9 v& l9 A/ n3 }3 K* p1 j* a1 wshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in% i. f; b( ?& i7 A5 ]+ a
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate! G6 v2 V0 T. b8 ?% J* L( A: L! l; m
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors+ o: P h. t7 }4 _
higher as a "hold" recommendation.! K( Y% N+ @& e+ n4 t% d
1 p4 P s+ h8 y: V% ?" w7 S& ^* c
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years, ?" b9 k# z) C) J
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy1 V$ k" p" V, U/ Z U
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
7 W( ]7 y9 R% ^+ fnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest" T. d2 Q! E- P7 \: l) C: u
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
# o- B% N' o! l/ B/ Q5 ?( \prices."' A4 E0 T$ ~1 q7 U5 O+ z T* X
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at; Q- x: Y F; L4 m$ V
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.1 z3 S6 q. p# m8 _/ s
4 W* R9 A, c$ }! \& s6 A( k- y+ ]
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
, a ^: B8 U4 m+ Y; E# ~. ?* ]9 [8 _; Q3 n" j7 d. a+ g' o3 ?
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,% w5 _! F# {' L/ R
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its) S$ [1 \- x% J2 Q6 l3 a+ r# f: L
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
& ^% O% M, f# D: _1 H6 aacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop! g: A& N k; w0 R/ S5 ?
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of( v( f5 [0 x% B; J6 Z
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its' O" E0 K, [0 [( {# V3 F
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
4 @: g3 ~( Q% Hcountry.
) H2 ]2 a& m" D% A! c4 m* D2 S "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
5 `& i3 o+ a3 C) I- h( olimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
/ c! V% D9 }: o s; d1 A8 G/ [PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,7 Z7 H# v' U; k2 s- `
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.8 \7 Z2 @8 x# [7 C# h
; t- R0 T" g2 Z5 x
About the Urban Land Institute) ?8 `, R0 T0 {
) E A m8 g0 T, X* P
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
8 U$ L5 S& i& o3 l3 i: yresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide( r: V, k) o) t1 y
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
5 A, h4 p0 |5 p! j% k" Tthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more: o z) d/ {+ ]4 o' @
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development- h) t6 l" @; Q) t0 M9 m
disciplines.
: m& R4 w# B* J: [; O# o, X The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
' `) s7 B0 ^( o* x. W2 WWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District* Z0 H& w) W) b. B, g
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is' l$ { c3 r5 L$ q2 e" Y7 X
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
/ J7 D( K# D5 e* B! U2 ~* w+ Ohosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
% \8 E, o; l: P1 _: ^5 `2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
+ z- U, q# P4 h, tHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,& k, m. Q4 V' s% M! J% b
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
- k' Q( g) h1 s" v4 f/ vcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on7 \% N# }/ V" s% A! B" k% Y% v
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.$ E( i" A" Z! H5 Q
8 {# Z5 Z5 e5 h; e3 h1 F5 |
* s$ {2 D8 b' H! @9 d: n- j, m
, K$ r# D/ c9 KFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,7 s2 ^% }: Q* U$ i4 p& p& c
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com/ c/ N4 T7 n9 O7 G% h
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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