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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 4 v) a: ]" T% \/ g/ Q% V, @
& R8 d: }+ w2 X0 P9 z* A; |Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 9 K0 x4 ~0 ]6 K3 s& u
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
/ @5 B# {2 s; E' Bcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern7 m% x9 R: i; @- @
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging; |/ f! W4 r9 A# O- B/ V
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)" J) p- m) c/ Z7 f Q
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more; z0 X3 O$ h, T
upbeat.
: i3 Y% w- t$ u Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded4 ~' Z i4 n2 d# k6 Y* X
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects$ t, u t2 A; g. n- q: @7 Q
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
7 x* T) K6 q3 _+ |, destate experts, including investors, developers, property company
8 q/ ]0 I4 T3 \- E0 Q; b) drepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.( o g& S4 Z2 H6 M
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
0 s# G+ C# n' @! q* Q9 nincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
" N& `( }" ^; D, T6 M3 l9 \ Y According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian: k4 |* S6 N& C" J+ R9 X; K) g
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment' T& F3 K9 z- l% T9 Z( m. c
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
2 {$ o7 M* t) k2 Zbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record* |" i; X' b9 x+ L4 f3 Y
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."7 c7 h- v2 R; r
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
. b9 L$ `0 n) n `border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
, s6 e9 V) ?+ _0 P5 _+ R: _' o4 `speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
. w8 @1 y; ^* S( b, x; _ Z* Bremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
: I$ M2 A& K4 s- C9 ]% ]) T! ecorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
# D5 N( ~/ ? T, T* svery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent." A$ ^9 @" F8 S+ U2 ~
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
( y+ e, ]9 B* y8 t3 I/ q9 }7 k( Drespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
Y i7 J$ O( T7 \! vcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land4 e* B" u9 C3 p6 ^
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
T# I0 L5 X$ g6 K; b+ u3 H& oespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating$ s5 S) ?+ R# v
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The: f- X3 I8 a! ?7 o% I4 x/ u5 c. S
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to" _; F, ?: i4 Q. r/ t4 Z
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
& P8 ]* I' F2 B. psingle-family housing looks overpriced.
. w9 o# q* n! C Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
' F! r0 k5 `; u. |' {$ M" S; jtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian" B. A2 ^ w7 B d/ ? \( k
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
3 w0 u {6 k3 r" `! r' shigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting. q0 t- o0 c9 R; u
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,8 b' U+ o% i( q8 L
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
) f, O4 @. N* B4 l7 L8 gapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary& v. }6 a% @. u
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
+ Q- g% p. h9 W5 O; |# H* k# yshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into# T+ C- h9 |. F/ f6 |
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development. `+ V" W( x- B' I
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
3 ^, z1 G3 V+ |5 V5 _ X( r( e( ?2 Z% g0 q$ t) c
Canadian Markets to Watch
/ ]5 Z) ~7 Z+ W. Q6 u( ~% r
( l4 Q A' Y' g7 \ The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central! M1 q& Q- J; u* |1 y
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
9 `; R6 v8 P9 o( _9 ~( X3 C+ ~ V3 Nneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
; R. _; M# F: Rinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in" n# U0 R& r+ ~% d
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
$ M8 E- r2 U a# h9 C% b! _projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out' [3 g- x& o/ n: }
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment, i8 R, @: S5 e9 k
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain5 {7 b6 J; H) U- z2 ]
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this. C! x) d8 p% k3 S3 l4 y/ {/ @# P
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
5 p1 M8 Y7 E' ~ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
]( ]9 c+ b( `" ?. F+ n& P
8 _% u6 z' A5 y( U7 ~# X4 j2 ] b Calgary/Edmonton5 H/ k- a) y7 T
# y. \- ]9 H. q
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one% y3 F* X: P/ e p8 {% F4 j: I" }
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
9 l; g$ K3 s, k8 {3 X* A' B, Z; X0 i/ Qbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,7 ~; U$ Z0 R+ J- @/ ~
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
* E1 o$ u, ^* ~) I& m, B- ^0 qFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
& b& }8 J1 f' V) \* |- `) uHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
, C* S7 l& r0 m! ^Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays" y- `5 ^2 u+ S H/ j
strong, this market will continue to do well.
! l, @& Q1 G$ m6 Z4 j) ^( W# v' n' _: D/ a! }# A1 F2 L1 g+ C
Vancouver$ ]( ]) e! W# r U) ?$ z8 N
& |% Y+ y. |6 C
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is- z* ?/ ~9 g, R" o4 V
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous; C/ J2 @# Z% }& p8 Q- v4 m
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the, N+ z1 a' C8 I
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
* X' c8 z$ r- ]/ Mgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy' F* f U" W) P# |
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
) S; U4 V& M* I b+ a/ Xfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%7 y) _3 C; o5 b1 V7 M2 u& h
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
- ?6 i% v# o( A+ X) B" E* E% ]+ j# e+ ngood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.+ W, n( u7 g3 ^2 v
% b( ~, h, p- t. n
Toronto( U: g" N. E) M
: q0 w' b. E7 I0 H1 {
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and" T+ S* ]8 V, h U, \
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is, S2 c9 ~+ C0 L2 q5 s/ D. a
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing" a7 B5 J+ z# m$ u: v6 b
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.0 A7 g! Y$ t, r! x3 V ~
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
5 @7 a% a( Z6 s( G. L# vfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and, I# {3 e! N3 O2 ]$ V( c
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
+ r2 ]) B! j& {+ R+ J' d' Z4 f0 [2 A, d4 g/ G
Montreal
5 S6 P$ l8 D1 |$ g2 e
) X, l7 \& f+ l6 L" ~ Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall3 H$ P- p# L8 \
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
) A2 i; }+ T5 M+ c# lshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
5 B' q, r8 C, j; G+ hCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate- R" k' L- Y4 J7 o8 N
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
9 j* { e" c0 q( ] h D8 w# B4 a! n0 |higher as a "hold" recommendation.
9 u6 h" `7 s5 U. v' {
5 z8 j/ ^- k$ j6 g The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
9 a0 ^ e8 r/ m# a% [7 linclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
6 |7 S4 P( _$ \: nmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos1 J+ A. L7 e; ^% t9 i: Z3 R! H
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
% E$ I- H# P" n9 W2 o4 N) |overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current& O) i, E& |. \9 R" Q
prices."
8 \0 ]3 W" n! M, d% \8 t A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
9 E9 C! T! n" g; U: Bwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
6 m4 O! d. s& n. ]6 t! e; Q' y' T
About PricewaterhouseCoopers% M( M! _" Z" ^
; s9 J+ j1 h( D- W; x! N! O PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
% l+ F( m+ O$ W& Btax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its8 k4 N Y% f- o1 i$ r0 W
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries$ N' l5 T+ g/ F4 c; M
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop8 Z7 L! c" d0 A; D5 w9 n" F+ v/ u o
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of% ]7 {1 q. X" {, @" s
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its3 T. d" s! Q5 a2 }' K* j3 H; F
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the) p3 V& I& \7 U6 @) \
country.$ P& M w$ N- x$ m5 D1 m2 H
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
, [1 ?* w! Q5 P) o) o' [9 I+ Ilimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
% s/ I6 D) e, t/ \" vPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,0 G/ t# I* \* Q
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.: ?3 `* g8 i) c' ?6 Y8 \! N2 Y
* H, H8 w# ~! g: F* {
About the Urban Land Institute* ~1 k- T7 C' S* P! T g) n
1 n" p8 t3 N6 u9 U" W
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and9 R0 H4 W( o9 _. \, F: {
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide/ B" i/ \7 X$ N. C3 @( z: f
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
8 y1 ^ G1 m' K' Othriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more2 l3 X* Z- j& g) t6 A! H% w
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development% _; L. D7 V2 A: Q, r0 }" C6 o
disciplines.
, b" A6 f9 S- ~ The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
) K9 N: }$ m9 w1 X+ [- \With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District, L) ?9 I- E" V* W, p4 N
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is4 D1 l0 I* y: }$ ~
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be3 \: K$ {" t* f8 P( ]& @ F8 T# s% S
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,7 J1 }6 C7 Q: N
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
. [* N8 d5 T: |' R! o9 l uHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
& s* ^- l, K# H4 @& o* x% @9 Y2 cPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
& U" B$ @+ o- u }8 N! Vcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on+ W" [; m3 b: i2 j9 X
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
6 y0 }1 |3 ]) W/ A- k+ X: V7 ?7 u. ~# W' f
% x4 x4 x: e4 s: A8 m
A! K2 c0 ]$ I* U9 w1 b
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,) j4 a" ]1 m" h( J6 y, d$ K
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
2 I' N% M% ~( Q. s0 ?0 ]6 Vhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html+ u; O% k1 N8 @2 R" M# f+ R
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