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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
" D7 x) p. ^' c2 ^. H. G- d, p TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
+ ? H2 V+ P3 @commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern" ~; C1 g8 t" z$ v8 b
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
) ~. X- |) w* J. e& C$ z+ D6 \Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)" z3 `* G. \" R
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
, s( c/ C0 b4 E- ^2 S xupbeat.. z/ _( M1 W) y& B" W' s' ?; i
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
* [ D* ^4 `* M0 [ N* Vannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
6 Q: q2 _: p% w9 \interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real* { j' r2 g, d* @' f
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company1 J7 f& O% O* L5 z5 {" \& i* S! n
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.4 S) M7 R" a; ^3 }0 @' y
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world9 y( ?$ E) ^% f
including Asia Pacific and Europe.. }, h1 l6 Y$ @+ g
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
. p& N+ p2 G x0 z! e0 j: R) pReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment: z5 T7 e3 W# ?" E* ^, {
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
0 b L, c% C, ]. X" k( Ybe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
5 Y0 I: x% L7 L# F& c# y& Ihighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
" e& |; v7 r x According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
$ y! D1 i/ }" }( g; E4 s# O6 Q- `border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game4 X. g0 D6 ?1 u, H
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey9 A) L9 |* @/ |; f, G9 e0 A8 r
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US$ i: t& P" p& f- o5 \0 m. r1 K
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
& m! g1 `/ A( a2 T+ x5 \very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.( w$ \ f: }# Y" D4 o
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
3 K k, m$ l8 l; t7 S* Drespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by4 i8 I" B0 a ]" j, F7 i8 B' |' P
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land3 I8 S/ `7 ]8 `0 F
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country2 |/ P( u) X# _2 y, L7 N
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
* C. b3 X8 I Ydevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The# ^2 E1 m4 n; u8 L
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
$ p/ q' r* u. `6 H+ I: Atake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and1 z, |8 s9 I0 c* \7 x
single-family housing looks overpriced.
, I& t3 E" m/ C; W8 k, l2 e Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
' V$ K5 x) g1 I) k' N7 ztenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
2 _+ s$ H* T' C# X3 @8 U' Pmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
+ L; u7 k* f' c9 i1 @1 f+ C N* thigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting7 v5 O f( L4 n- m7 @' {' G+ R X
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
, x4 G' ]+ B2 Y9 g# [and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
! H: T3 @. Z( m0 g$ T9 g$ o* y! S6 Qapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
, c' S2 C; p( a8 J: ~' d) swestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
# p/ { G6 h' o3 [3 oshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
7 k# _- B2 _, o% g9 j) Z; j" e$ i2 Dthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development2 q7 Y+ n9 L+ b
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.# S+ Z9 o; U0 `0 F$ \1 B; p7 t
+ P y0 J% g3 N* e Canadian Markets to Watch$ c( J8 |! R5 z1 O4 q0 A1 F
9 c7 l# T' ^5 |0 J
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central% B# a% z* e& |+ D) X9 G' \
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
! n3 x, a1 Z; {. v9 Dneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back: ?* [0 L0 O8 j3 F# t8 { C0 x
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
' A; [# p# i3 q7 pdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
: a4 _3 B) q( u6 J+ Cprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
9 d7 M. I+ ]( r* G! Mwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment+ b# H: c P# g+ I8 i
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
+ S9 U9 [& N* b* o% {7 S: s4 P" @4 ^5 {whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
& j8 \; m' V" E! @$ E& Q/ _; ]Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high, ]" W2 U Q9 Z# o
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
- I) U4 L0 c4 A f! t6 a" o6 X4 [3 b; D: u! A1 }3 X0 s
Calgary/Edmonton6 P) C1 Q/ l$ i
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
& G4 d( y% @ F% ~7 lboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
' Z `# W7 X# @, V6 i3 @buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
( X ~; j w4 _- T5 L! M. W48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property. e9 M3 a) U: [( ]( {- w. W
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
3 e' ?8 Z7 C1 F) hHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the: Q7 t* |& \% h+ Y& h* p$ q2 }
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
0 A: [4 g2 H, R9 D* I/ Nstrong, this market will continue to do well.
. j/ m8 j6 f6 ~& L6 I' V6 Z$ |" { w( y/ v4 O
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
4 c1 @ Z- B# O: Z `; w# x2 a8 l+ \/ pbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
; h- m: ^$ }: O# rreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the" F( C9 l& }) p/ ?( m2 q
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a# m7 E g; O$ Y
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
2 G) V; h) ?, j. o2 l. k/ h3 n" nrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
: ]1 a X: U. b" X; Rfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
& G1 u( S* [. r( { h6 V, Ufor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
( n, k- H# u n2 [good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.; S8 q8 f+ K5 a8 c
, z3 {/ l7 O, s/ Q+ ~* B( \- X; I' Q& p
Toronto
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3 I0 v! l. Y- W5 R2 \+ l Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
$ b7 g }* |3 G1 Lmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is: g; V+ \5 v5 R
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing8 a/ q8 o4 j: n
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
" O8 N! ^8 m1 z# GThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square2 }: ^2 y) c) n) Y L \
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and d1 ?& h: e; o5 V: R+ x1 y
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.0 \8 T2 U7 Z3 c! l) A
9 ~ u$ x2 {# Y2 I9 l/ h
Montreal( r5 e# Q# a3 \' W3 U
2 h! B# _: _, j6 d) U Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall6 e8 R/ n7 E% l0 s+ m& w/ M
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
9 b+ B9 n9 _ q! l+ B. Gshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in2 B& k8 ]0 p6 ]# ?' l1 r
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
3 H! v$ t: @8 I p5 z- Y! }7 B2 ]1 tsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors! M! Q/ A, w5 @. |
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
% R' G+ b6 P. p, m: d; t4 y2 L5 Y
, q8 v, {; n& Z The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years7 l: t1 A- x y3 \% Q9 q( v
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
% ]5 e8 T9 G- J h `. `- [5 nmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
" Y0 i& F- y9 [near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
8 L0 s, M$ l: j9 w* x" r; Aoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current/ }* t% V A: V6 H" g
prices."
( S3 P- o4 {, z+ D: n5 s A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
4 y! a0 X6 p* c9 r$ fwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
5 }9 J. ~3 l. N+ [9 u* ~
1 ?( ~/ M0 }# B3 D6 p About PricewaterhouseCoopers
: P( q& t3 r3 P. t* \$ R/ n7 z7 d W
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
0 A, l T0 ^$ F. m; @4 s2 `tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
F. K# x) t, g) ?3 ?clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
j5 c4 y4 E: M6 bacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
$ ^( V/ d |/ ]; X" ` m- {fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
% m f! X9 i. c- Kexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
2 p0 s+ b7 y9 p' m5 U2 Prelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the F1 e- v' {3 W% @, A) a
country.- @! I% G, ?$ `
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
' L+ \9 @1 T' N7 |: `, Z4 a. blimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the; ^7 f! T. R* u* a* u$ R6 v/ _7 _
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
/ o+ O( U. q; e( xeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity. g. p# g, ~0 Z9 }+ o! {
! |1 \" g+ q* |) o* T About the Urban Land Institute0 ~5 @) l+ T) y$ M! T0 n
) P( [7 d% A$ v. l1 p5 o$ H
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
1 Y8 x$ m7 k5 Y1 wresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
# x( t G( D* C' E3 I5 {3 Vleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating. W) }) F! [; W- P* k
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more3 U* a6 G* O. E% u' b2 ]
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
" ^2 Z) H( @1 C6 r1 edisciplines.
z- q8 K: r; X/ Q/ W The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.6 m6 J" i/ O" `4 J- Q0 c! v
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District0 l: R5 K2 C& {5 F* M, P
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
/ [, S7 O1 ?8 ]' f& l& {now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be. I" }7 H" @% d& h P7 U$ S
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,2 q8 n# A' p# r" e/ B
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake: Z6 ?6 j0 a! [/ q
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,' ~3 T" `% x4 V9 t# g& C+ J5 V
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please. I: T- _' J! ]3 N6 h6 W# p
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
, E7 z8 z& a6 Pthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.3 d8 ~3 z0 W, N, w& @
9 j% a9 }. h( S3 h* C. _
- L' L3 o$ \* }% C/ H9 l0 f" {
7 ], K. q# E. z8 gFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,9 ^+ N" t1 j+ g
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
6 g; @* u1 b% W& Shttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
& T! @1 E0 K' S6 h# ~. E8 B& |
& F% |- ~ B b- A' l[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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