Housing boom has come to an end: report

水管工

Housing boom has come to an end: report
3 ^+ b3 y2 y/ cMario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald
Published: Thursday, June 26, 2008
& t0 W8 E6 b+ w& R* {5 S% k5 Q/ m) ]CALGARY - Canada's housing boom has come to an end and that is no more evident than in Calgary and in Alberta - with prices here continuing to fall this year by eight to 10 per cent from their peak, says a national real estate report.

6 v$ n  k, a9 W$ s& j- Q1 _( P! AThe report released today by TD Economics says "the long-awaited end of the Canadian housing boom has occurred, reflecting more moderate demand and increased supply of properties for sale" and it is a trend that is broadly based "but it has been particularly sharp in some of the markets that had experienced the most dramatic price growth."
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- l1 J4 s# ?. e( ]# a1 k"Calgary and Edmonton home prices in April and May fell to below year-earlier levels," said the report authored by Craig Alexander, vice president and deputy chief economist, and Pascal Gauthier, economist, of the TD Bank Financial Group.
3 ]6 F8 L4 ~' e5 d0 UThe combination of significantly higher listings, reflecting the desire of homeowners to take advantage of the past increase in prices, and weaker demand, due to the past erosion in affordability, are leading to declining sales and softer price performance across the country, particularly in the west."
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The report said sales are likely to continue to decline in the coming quarters and price growth will slip to two per cent on a national average basis in 2008 and rise only to 3.5 per cent in 2009. Most markets will see low to mid single-digit gains, but Saskatchewan and Manitoba will continue to post double-digit gains in the near term followed by a significant cooling in 2009 - "with the risk of a mild price correction in the major cities that have recently experienced extraordinary price growth."
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"Alberta will have further weakness in the near term, as Calgary and Edmonton will likely see prices continue to fall for another three or four quarters, dropping eight per cent to 10 per cent from their peak, after which prices should stabilize and start rising at a low single-digit pace."

Just as Calgary and Edmonton led the way up in sales growth, they are now leading the way down, said the report. Home sales in the two cities were down 34 per cent 30 per cent, respectively, year-to-date as of May.
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"However, Edmonton resale activity is tracking close to 2005 levels, while sales in Calgary are faring worse and look likely to revert back to 2004 levels, near 26,000 units," the report said.
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"Our base-case scenario for Alberta home sales for the remainder of 2008 builds in an even greater decline in sales in the near term before levelling off late in the year for a net annual sales drop of 40 per cent. As a result, after two years of percolating over 70,000 units sold, Alberta is more likely to record sales volumes in the 40,000-50,000 unit range this year and next."
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7 j3 b4 U% x" V. v$ nThe TD report said that between 2005 and 2007 Alberta was skewing the national existing home market figures to the upside.
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"Late in 2007 and early in 2008, Alberta home price growth came back down to earth, converging with national figures," it said. "The latest provincial real estate data show that Alberta is now more than a percentage point below the country's average in terms of home price growth."

  p! y- B& A3 @$ u2 jIn the past, Alberta had boosted the national price figure by as much as 2.5 percentage points in 2006.
- F4 j# H2 R1 C3 BOutside Alberta, the report said existing homes will appreciate by about three per cent this year. Including Alberta, which the report said will record a 1.5 per cent price decline - brings the national forecast down by nearly a full percentage point to two per cent.
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' o( _- I# }/ h( s0 L"For 2009, Alberta's expected home price growth of two per cent will not differ enough from the rest of the country to pull down significantly our forecast 3.5 per cent for the nation as a whole."

( u% ?( w% N# D: v. d, Y5 N. }mtoneguzzi@theherald.canwest.com
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6 `/ \. V' t& V" J2 z/ F4 x© Calgary Herald 2008

yj151

精品中年老男人

catty

加拿大房事高潮终于走到尽头，在卡加利和阿尔伯塔表现得最明显，房价比去年高点跌去8-10个百分点，一家全国性的TD地产报告如是说。
TD经济报告今天发布说，（穷人）盼望的高房价终点终于来临，显示出更温和的需求和不断上涨的房源，这个趋势是基于经历过房价高涨的市场都有明显的下滑。
卡加利和爱民吨的4/5月房价跌到去年同期水平（爱民吨不算跌，考虑到去年5月是高点），TD 的副总裁兼副首席经济学家和另一个经济学家说，不断增加的房源数量（显示出房东门都想乘机捞一把）、脆弱的需求（穷鬼门的支付能力）导致全国销售下滑和售价疲软，（当然）西部更明显。
. b$ G, G* u4 ?& i报告说下一个季节销售预计还会下滑，售价全年会跌2%，（不是紫光的去年同期，而是2008年），当然2009年还会延续房价永远上涨的神话的，增加3。5%，大部分市场会有低于10%的增长（估计萨省除外），萨省和曼省果然除外，今年有2位数的增长，但2009年也会回跳，疯狂价格的风险果然校正了几个主要大城市阿尔伯塔近期还会继续走弱，预计卡加利和爱民吨还会跌个一年半载，（再）跌个8-10%，然后价格就平稳并缓慢增长啦，（所以房主门实在没必要草木皆兵）
# Q5 `: r# o9 i报告说，正如卡加利/爱民吨过去领涨一样，现在他们开始领跌了，截至5月，2市今年分别销售下降34%和30%。然而，爱民吨2手市场活动正直追2005年的水平，比卡加利好点，他们已滑到2004年，26000啊。
预计阿省销量今年会平稳下滑到40%，相比于前2年的7万销量，预计今明2年在4-5万左右
报告说05-07阿省带动全国房价上涨
7 @( [* z5 j9 C去年底今年初，和全国市场相反，阿省的房价增长终于从火星回到地球来了，最新省地产数据显示，比全国水平低1%。
, [7 B* u( a4 Y) U0 |06年，却高于全国水平2。5%
9 t6 Y( \: C6 x4 D. s9 |: t- a其他省会有3%增加（多达10个苍蝇腿），综合阿省，价格会有1。5%下滑（大家一块下）
% @% X( q" h/ H' g" v预计明年会长，不过还是要拖其他省的后腿

[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-6-26 11:00 编辑 ]

精品中年老男人

所以房主门实在没必要草木皆兵, 请继续捂住存货。

青萝

Solina

anchina11

去年来的时候就一个人来没有轻易卖掉安省的房子，没有举家搬迁到亚省买房，不亏也就算赚了一把吧。谢天谢地，终于可以安心把家安在安省了。

奥运会指定马甲

原帖由 catty 于 2008-6-26 10:54 发表
( ~/ R3 {7 g! e4 C加拿大房事高潮终于走到尽头，在卡加利和阿尔伯塔表现得最明显，房价比去年高点跌去8-10个百分点，一家全国性的TD地产报告如是说。
TD经济报告今天发布说，（穷人）盼望的高房价终点终于来临，显示出更温和的需求和 ...

翻译的很生动！

phil79

谢谢分享最新消息！也感谢翻译的辛勤劳动！