加国房市怕是在劫难逃了？

mmk2008 · 发表于 2008-11-12 14:43

美国政府出招，对美国房市利好，但效果还有待观察，从心理上人们还没有从阴影中解放思想，另外整体经济不好，治标不治本，不可能立竿见影。
对加拿大而言，说明如果政府不能提出有效的措施拯救房市，恐怕也将步美国后尘“再度出招”，更大的衰退怕指日可待了。。。

个人看法，准备接砖。。。

yxia · 发表于 2008-11-12 15:13

今天加拿大政府提出措施拯救房市, 有没有效就不知道了:

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TOP STORY
Ottawa to buy another $50B in residential mortgages

The federal government is purchasing another $50 billion in residential mortgages to further stabilize the lending industry and encourage lower interest rates, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced Wednesday.

Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty speaks to journalists in downtown Toronto on Wednesday Nov. 12, 2008. (Chris Young/ THE CANADIAN PRESS) CTV.ca News Staff

The announcement follows a similar move last month in which Ottawa bought $25 billion in mortgages.

The combined mortgage debt, both purchased through the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), will bring the maximum value of bought securities to $75 billion.

"At a time of considerable uncertainty in global financial markets, this action will provide Canada's financial institutions with significant and stable access to longer-term funding," Flaherty said at a press conference in Toronto.

"This extension of the program to purchase insured mortgages will further support the availability of credit, which will benefit Canadian households, businesses and the economy.

"In addition, it will earn a modest rate of return for the Government with no additional risk to the taxpayer."

Flaherty said the government "will not allow Canada's financial system, which has been ranked as the soundest in the world, to be put at risk by global events."

Last month, Canada's big banks lowered their prime lending rates following the announcement about the $25 billion buyout.

The Tories have been quick to indicate that the deal to buy mortgages is an asset swap, not a bailout.

The idea is that banks can take good assets, in this case the mortgages, and turn them into cash -- which can then be made available to people seeking mortgages or to small business.

The "high-quality" assets are already guaranteed by the Canadian government, Flaherty said.

"It is an efficient, cost-effective and safe way to support lending in Canada at a time of extraordinary strain in global credit markets," he said.

Despite the global financial crisis, Flaherty said he still expects to report a budget surplus.

"We're still on track for a small, and I emphasize small, surplus in the current fiscal year," he said.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada said Wednesday it will inject an added $8 billion into Canada's tight money markets.

The Bank said it plans to introduce a Canadian Dollar Term Loan Facility (TLF) in four auctions of $2 billion each in the coming weeks.

Under the plan, qualifying financial institutions will be able to offer non-mortgage loans as collateral -- meaning they can offer most loans currently on their books.

zbyf · 发表于 2008-11-12 15:39

个人觉得，加拿大的问题不是房产泡沫的问题(即便有泡沫也不象美国那么严重，另外在房贷上也比美国慎重)，而是经济的衰退引发高失业率和市场信心不足，失业的短期找不到工作无力继续供房，买房的不知经济和房价会走向何方而持币观望。只要在经济上没有起色，房价还会继续走底。

mmk2008 · 发表于 2008-11-12 16:42

原帖由 zbyf 于 2008-11-12 15:39 发表
8 d! X" i4 C- h7 i6 C3 g。。。只要在经济上没有起色，房价还会继续走底.

同意，
只是在目前世界经济形式下，尤其是美国，加国经济有起色的可能性微乎其微，不知何时为谷底。。。
不知道醉酒，老杨和小黄教授有什么见解？

ZJDX · 发表于 2008-11-12 17:41

明年可能更难熬.
冬天快过,春天快来的时候才是青黄不接,最难熬的时候.

每天一点 · 发表于 2008-11-12 19:03

2009年一季度将有10万人失去工作，经济达到17年最差：

经济预期这么差，炒房人肯定是不会投入了，想买房的人也一般是能拖就拖

100,000 jobs to be lost as Canada hits recession: report
Last Updated: Tuesday, November 11, 2008 | 10:23 PM ET Comments21Recommend19
The Canadian Press

Canadians are in store for a harsh winter of economic news, with substantial job losses mounting in the next few months as recessionary times take hold, the Global Insight forecasting firm says.

Global Insight managing director Dale Orr said the country will lose 100,000 jobs in the first three months of 2009, and he believes Canada has already entered its first recession in 17 years.

While several of Canada's chartered banks have previously predicted the economy will experience some slippage, it is the first time Global Insight — known for its detailed and cautious reports — has projected an outright recession.

A recession is typically defined by economists as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, usually measured by gross domestic product.

By that measure, the Canadian market narrowly missed falling into recession in the first half of 2008; after a contraction in the first three months of the year, the second quarter showed modest growth.

Third-quarter GDP numbers for the full July-to-September period haven't been released yet.

The current October-to-December period will see the economy shrink 1.4 per cent on an annualized basis, Orr forecast, with a further 1.2 per cent retreat occurring in the first quarter of 2009.

For the next year as whole, Orr said, the economy will average zero growth.

"That's quite a stretch of miserable growth," he said.

Unlike the slowdown earlier this year, which was mainly concentrated in the business community and the stock markets, this "will feel more like a recession" because of the significant job losses, he said.

Orr said job losses will likely occur in the beleaguered auto sector and forestry — two hard-hit areas — but also in the construction trade as housing starts decline, and in tourism and the financial services sector in response to the crisis in stock markets.

"Main Street hasn't felt this [slowdown] yet because we've had pretty good labour markets, but the next year going forward, the labour markets are going to show it," Orr said.

The forecast for a 100,000-job plunge in employment contrasts with the 104,000 jobs created in Canada in the first three months of 2008.

Orr said Canada's jobless rate will rise from the current 6.2 per cent to 7.2 per cent at the end of next year.
Resource boom over: BMO

Separately, the Bank of Montreal declared that Canada's resource-sector boom — which sustained much of the country's growth the past few years — has ended, after commodity prices plummeted another 16.7 per cent in October.

Prices for almost all commodities Canada exports are now lower than they were a year ago after peaking in the summer, the bank said, and aren't likely to recover for at least another year.

Oil will average about $70 US a barrel in 2009, from this year's $102 average, BMO forecast.

While lower prices for energy and metals are generally regarded as good news for consumers and manufacturers, the sudden commodities collapse alongside the global financial slump is whipsawing Canada, BMO senior economist Earl Sweet said.

"Sharply rising commodity prices were very good for resource-rich provinces and not so good for central Canada's manufacturing sector," Sweet said.

"Now it's going to be a difficult time for the commodities sector in general, and [because of the global slowdown], we're not going to see much of an improvement in central Canada, either."

Amid the general economic gloom, CIBC chief economist Jeff Rubin did manage to find a silver lining, saying he believed the worst of the stock market meltdown may be over.

Rubin was cautiously optimistic the global economy can escape further systemic financial shocks for the balance of the year, noting that credit and liquidity concerns were easing.

苹果鸭梨 · 发表于 2008-11-12 21:41

真是：秋天快过去了，冬天还远吗？？？？？？？？？？？？？

mmk2008 · 发表于 2008-11-12 21:51

是呀，加上今天油价狂跌。利好的人恐怕要三缄其口了。

浪里黑条 · 发表于 2008-11-13 08:32

说实话，我觉得明年应该大涨。

低谷其实从07年就开始了，09应该走上坡路了。

屯委书记 · 发表于 2008-11-13 08:56

原帖由 浪里黑条 于 2008-11-13 08:32 发表
( h- D: v5 x8 t. v! \! E说实话，我觉得明年应该大涨。
4 C5 o, A G" y1 s5 \) _% i9 J
1 I$ A J* N" E" }5 Q( X低谷其实从07年就开始了，09应该走上坡路了。

很有条理：失业率将达最高，房价将走上坡路

陈妮 · 发表于 2008-11-13 09:08

日子不好过了

浪里黑条 · 发表于 2008-11-13 09:15

原帖由 屯委书记 于 2008-11-13 08:56 发表
7 V7 q/ h+ j0 ]/ R$ h2 P4 U: T4 G6 ^( e; X: [( E+ V& B
很有条理：失业率将达最高，房价将走上坡路

对啊，书记。

你说说看，人们都失业了，不去炒房子，难道在家里打游戏？

屯委书记 · 发表于 2008-11-13 09:20

原帖由 浪里黑条 于 2008-11-13 09:15 发表
) r. l/ m! G i2 p* i3 Z% G! k5 c3 ^& H

! t& W* N! Q9 L5 u1 h# R7 K$ R对啊，书记。
$ d2 Y3 C( o. b1 _- O7 N! t5 |7 ^3 B2 ]
你说说看，人们都失业了，不去炒房子，难道在家里打游戏？

打游戏多好玩啊，又不用还银行毛给支。
失业的人炒房，卖给谁啊？没失业的人？

浪里黑条 · 发表于 2008-11-13 09:27

原帖由 屯委书记 于 2008-11-13 09:20 发表
4 G: W$ b* A9 ?" _
$ a4 K2 [* E$ P0 i I. F打游戏多好玩啊，又不用还银行毛给支。6 V, n) b0 o: l
失业的人炒房，卖给谁啊？没失业的人？

哎呀我说书记，你也应该去法兰西看看腰间盘了。

炒房子不需要买家的，互相炒就可以了，大家共同致富。

老花镜 · 发表于 2008-11-13 16:40

eastroster · 发表于 2008-11-13 22:41

原帖由 浪里黑条 于 2008-11-13 09:27 发表
% D0 O- A" t8 m. Y; K& Z$ H7 g+ B0 ?/ J" L9 |4 ]8 }
/ S# K$ F/ S3 |6 b1 t
哎呀我说书记，你也应该去法兰西看看腰间盘了。
+ |; L2 |& a: Z7 q6 y
9 G- C5 z) S( d6 U% f) r; l炒房子不需要买家的，互相炒就可以了，大家共同致富。

“炒房子不需要买家的，互相炒就可以了，大家共同致富。”

决心和黑条结成互助组，互相炒房，共同致富。一帮一，一对红。

mmk2008 · 发表于 2008-11-14 11:27

哈哈，终于有人看涨了

紫光，紫光呢
给大家打打气吧

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2008-11-15 18:39

如果明年房价走上坡路，我给大家每个人一套。哈哈！

老孔雀 · 发表于 2008-11-15 19:16

原帖由 醉酒当歌 于 2008-11-15 18:39 发表
) p) n0 ~$ B! v# k如果明年房价走上坡路，我给大家每个人一套。哈哈！

这样的话，我到反而希望房价上涨了。关键是你这么没有意义啊。

mmk2008 · 发表于 2008-11-16 19:31

真的呀，我帮你宣传宣传你该没有意见吧？
房我就不要了，啤酒要得。。。

yj151 · 发表于 2008-11-16 22:40

原帖由 浪里黑条 于 2008-11-13 09:15 发表
) ]1 G" i0 X* b' |7 g) y- k' f, }2 L0 c0 h# K
0 I7 `' B* a2 I3 Z: v
对啊，书记。
" o" o7 _+ t) Q# G: H, j; g" S# _+ h8 }% d& O; z
你说说看，人们都失业了，不去炒房子，难道在家里打游戏？

有道理。大家总得找点事做才行的，不然玩物丧志。

yj151 · 发表于 2008-11-16 22:41

原帖由 醉酒当歌 于 2008-11-15 18:39 发表
' _ ]' [$ k+ |% K5 f如果明年房价走上坡路，我给大家每个人一套。哈哈！

你现在是醉的还是清醒的？此话当真？

现在我也赶紧希望房价，涨！涨！涨！

[ 本帖最后由 yj151 于 2008-11-16 22:43 编辑 ]

waiting · 发表于 2008-11-20 16:49

醉酒当歌有一个特点：房价涨的时候不出现，房价回落的时候就会重出江湖了。看吧，如果明年房子涨，估计很难找到醉酒

[ 本帖最后由 waiting 于 2008-11-20 16:50 编辑 ]

大自在心 · 发表于 2008-11-20 17:26

这里的房价在3-5年之内会持续下跌。

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加国房市怕是在劫难逃了？

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