美国又得逞了

费莫 · 发表于 2009-1-2 21:33

1。美国操纵以色列，挑起中东局势动荡，刺激国际市场石油价格上涨。
2。金融危机已经扩散到欧洲，欧元根本没有希望取代美元。
3。石油价格上涨，刺激国际社会对美元的需求和依赖。
4。为进一步大量发行美元做好准备。

石油价格太高或太低都不符合美国利益，它希望稳定在60-80的一个区间。

未来，会有一次火山喷发式的通货膨胀，"现金为王“是阶段性真理。注意黄金和白银，一定要关注。迟早要启动。

自由的像风 · 发表于 2009-1-2 21:35

苹果鸭梨 · 发表于 2009-1-2 21:54

白银并没有黄金那样的功能，为什么也会上涨？

Sunnyman · 发表于 2009-1-2 22:52

应该是美元贬值，通涨到来，所以所有资源类商品都会上涨。

精打细算 · 发表于 2009-1-2 22:55

利率会先降，然后疯狂大涨

费莫 · 发表于 2009-1-2 23:13

原帖由 苹果鸭梨 于 2009-1-2 21:54 发表
2 N3 H, i. G- e, \7 \6 K/ \白银并没有黄金那样的功能，为什么也会上涨？

Did you know that today's dollar can only buy about 2% of what it could buy in 1900? Compare that to gold, which today buys 150% of what it could in 1900. So, in roughly a century, gold has catapulted to 75 times as much purchasing power as the dollar.

-------------------------------------------

Value of Silver vs. Value of the Dollar: Above the Ground, Silver is Rarer Than Gold

That's right, silver is rarer than gold. But now you ask "Greg, you dolt, why the heck does an ounce of gold cost 54 times(Now is near 80,费莫comments) as much as an ounce of silver?" I'll get to that in a moment, but first I'll show some more about silver's relative rarity.

There's less above-ground silver than gold…the main reason for that is the fact that nearly all dug-up silver immediately goes to industrial use. Silver's one of the most useful elements on earth, with incredibly high thermal and electric conductivity.

In addition to the rabid industrial hunger for silver, the world's Central Banks, including America's, have sold off or used up the vast majority of their silver stockpiles. America ran through her reserves to issue popular silver coins. It didn't seem like a waste at the time because the price snoozed at low levels throughout the mid-eighties to the early nineties.

Today, industry uses only 5% of exhumed gold. And, obviously, gold's industrial use only grew out of the industrial era. For over 2,000 years, hard money, jewelry, art and other lasting artifacts formed the sole uses for gold.

That means nearly all of the gold ever yielded by the earth sits in gold bars, coins, or jewelry, shining through the ages with pride. All while almost every unearthed ounce of silver perishes in industrial use.

(Now, an army of grinning grannies could liquidate their heirloom tea sets and serving spoons with $25/ounce silver. I wouldn't want to get in their way. But such an unpredictable unloading would unlikely have a lasting effect on industry's necessary inventories of silver.)

That's why there are 1.6 billion ounces of gold inventory compared to only 300 million ounces of silver inventory. That's 5.33 times as much gold as silver. For the sheer heck of it, let's translate that into dollar value…

At $554 per ounce, the entire gold inventory has a worth of $886.4 billion. At $10.33 per ounce, the entire silver inventory's worth $3.1 billion. So, the total mass of above-ground gold's dollar-worth outweighs silver's by 285 times. Even though silver's five times rarer.

And, there's no argument I can recite that explains why silver's not as good an inflation hedge or dollar-bastion as gold. You probably remember that the British Empire measured the first world reserve currency, the pound sterling, in silver.

In fact, if the argument for a precious metal's worth takes its power solely based on rarity, then you might think that silver should be worth MORE than gold. And yet, ounce per ounce, gold's 5.33 times more beloved than her slighted silvery sister. Of course, if more people start figuring this out and begin to stockpile silver for wealth protection and appreciation purposes, then silver might equalize herself more with her glistery sister.

And, although silver's ramped up on a tear, hitting a 22-year high…even though the silver market's notoriously volatile, it could have even more explosive mid to long-term upside if its price equalized more with gold's.

This kind of situation makes the case for higher silver prices based on pure supply and demand. But, you probably have heard the mutterings about a possible silver ETF from Barclays that would buy bullion directly, similar to the gold ETF with the symbol GLD. Now, that new ETF would definitely put a strain on the already slim silver inventory supply.

[ 本帖最后由费莫于 2009-1-2 23:15 编辑 ]

一半清醒 · 发表于 2009-1-2 23:43

游戏的特点：规则和顺序

大扑克排，不同的规则，有不同的出排顺序。

围棋高手懂得如何弃“子”。

象棋高手知道丢卒保车。

把握节奏，有可能利于不败之地。

以上文本借助www.InputKing.com在线中文输入法输入

苹果鸭梨 · 发表于 2009-1-2 23:50

excellent. I need to pay more attention on it.

闲不住 · 发表于 2009-1-3 22:31

又要长工资了?

zhucalvin · 发表于 2009-1-3 23:12

费老大和老怪的观点很相似，给大家念念喜歌，前途似乎一片光明！！！

我个人比较担心企业垃圾债的问题。
美国现在的麻烦很多，汽车业大概要0.5万亿的救助，信用卡行业大概要1万亿，还有43个州政府由于无力支付失业救济金等面临破产，等等。这些对于我们来说是天文数字的巨款，对于美国来说，都是小意思，不值得一提。最值得关注的是20万亿的企业债，其中6、7万亿为垃圾债卷，概念相当于次贷，风险场口是次贷危机的3-4倍！！！危机的纵深发展，必将导致很多企业拖欠银行贷款利息，甚至倒闭，造成企业债违约率上升。从以往的经济危机规律看，从经济危机开始爆发后的半年左右，企业贷款违约率上升到12%以上，从而爆发企业垃圾债危机，其爆炸当量（风险场口）是次贷危机的3-4倍 .......
所以，我个人觉得企业垃圾债危机将再次引爆金融危机，应该会有Top 10的大银行和对冲基金倒闭，CDS将出现大问题，FDIC也可能倒闭或是被接管 ........ 总之，在企业垃圾债爆发期间，美元会再次被追捧，通缩还会产生，而且会比现在还严重，所以瑞士银行对2009年的十大预测中提到由于美联储和IMF急于抛出黄金等资产兑现来挽救危机和更为严重的通缩，将拖累黄金价格下跌到300美元 .......
企业垃圾债导致的经济危机第二波到底何时发生很难精确预测，可以肯定的是应该会在2009年内发生。不过，从长远的角度看，奥巴马的狂印美元救市的方式必将使M2和M3至少翻番，甚至更高，所以那时候黄金和白银的暴涨也是必然的趋势。

[ 本帖最后由 zhucalvin 于 2009-1-3 23:24 编辑 ]

费莫 · 发表于 2009-1-3 23:56

原帖由 zhucalvin 于 2009-1-3 23:12 发表 y+ E% y& T- t$ ]- Z
费老大和老怪的观点很相似，给大家念念喜歌，前途似乎一片光明！！！2 {7 k/ p9 D6 U2 |, B2 ]6 K
3 v) I/ q( e, \/ _; ?: X
; h, `# m: K" P

# x1 }& ~1 d X+ Q7 i+ T我个人比较担心企业垃圾债的问题。
! G2 W1 n' c; u& K4 Q7 I0 h美国现在的麻烦很多，汽车业大概要0.5万亿的救助，信用卡行业大概要1万亿，还有43个州政府由 ...

谢谢回帖，可我不是老大呀？！赫赫，另外我对经济形势并不乐观。
美国垃圾债的问题确实将会很大，整个金融产品的风险加大，收益下降。开始，人们（银行）会倾向持有现金（美元），拒绝债权和股权形式的投资（deleveraging出现)。（因为人们想：现金这种金融产品至少不会赔钱）。可是，经济形势，特别是金融形势的恶化，一定促使美国政府进一步采取积极的货币政策和财政政策，来刺激投资和消费。大家都讨论过了，美国银行那里会形成一个大蓄水池，蓄水池里全是蓄势待发的美元。各国银行也会抢发货币，主动贬值，刺激经济，增加出口。
接下来会怎样？
财富会去寻找比美元“更硬”的货币-------金银，或许还有石油。（因为欧元等其他货币更靠不住）

[ 本帖最后由费莫于 2009-1-4 00:07 编辑 ]

潇洒哥 · 发表于 2009-1-4 07:18

呵呵，越来越多人相信奥巴马会狂印美元，我不以为然，冬天即将过去，还需要迫切购置皮衣吗？

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