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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?# |0 p( r. V% [* Z3 O
Published: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET" x/ ~' }' @( e! ?- [5 r( z
Canadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine
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' B2 }/ N% L9 m2 V \6 ~CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.) z, T) b5 }2 M* g
. q3 t1 \+ K: K9 U; GThe average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.
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' E, {# i" Z4 C. eCalgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.. W# ~( _( S9 K. s4 S# a$ A8 r
) ~/ T0 O# V/ w- V"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.2 d, F; F) _# M: o$ t" D( C" }: b D7 j
0 i' P: r1 e/ T1 d* |+ |& D"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."2 Z2 R2 H) D- x4 `
' c- g. e# p" [. F" bIn Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.
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Z5 K8 O# [8 B2 u, G& S3 t1 ]Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.$ @" N k- Q. R% v
6 l) v" B8 m, Z6 pThe price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July./ R; }+ b. ?7 Y5 t$ L
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The February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.
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9 f0 e6 D ~# D"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.5 L3 H% j. }9 n: h
6 {! ^! }% ?( S- {: [: U+ }' E W: QIndustry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province. P. r2 }; g0 d& D$ s; ^; R
0 O8 }% q/ D. R7 Z- G& M; ABut those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.
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"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.
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5 \+ i V4 t3 R7 S5 z2 l"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this." ]& d$ {) |8 S. J1 E2 b
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.6 ~- ]4 }( }$ |$ b/ \1 `2 S$ p: ~
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"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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+ X J" V& B. a6 W7 DHirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.* x* w* ?8 P1 e Z
4 y ]' ^. X {: `4 n" l8 k"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."5 ~7 Q4 Z8 w1 I+ p5 `) x
7 `, }- M& ~8 m5 Q$ C; w' BBut Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.* x! w I4 F% b1 w, U2 p9 E6 O
9 L+ ~6 s% C* E* m+ q5 u. E"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said. O, s/ ^6 D. A# L0 ~
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"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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