固定利率会回调吗？ 这是一个问题

年轻的心

& J6 ]/ \: t3 x; S- }Yields Down. Rates, Not So Much

! ^" u% `" I$ e2 eCanada’s 5-year bond yield closed near a 3-week low today, settling at 2.43%.  That’s down from its June 10 high of 2.81%.
3 l; H1 o) ^- j( [6 U; l


2 f& e. R1 O, e4 Y0 q' r

8 c  `: V  S; _7 Q, Y% _While there’s been a noticeable dip in yields, there hasn’t been much reduction in 5-year fixed mortgage rates (which track yields).  
4 ^1 f$ `$ {* m' k( y- Z
  v+ a0 c" ^! O+ u0 R: XAt the most, we’ve seen a few non-bank lenders drop 5-year rates by 0.10% lately.  The Big 5 banks have not lowered advertised rates at all.

1 t/ {4 N" n2 [( Z3 q* u% A& mOne lender sent an email today suggesting that banks have changed their focus from aggregating clients to profitability. Given the banks just went through a vicious market share war, they may be less inclined to discount rates now with only four months to hit their year-end income targets.
The lender went on to say: “There may be some movement soon, but banks are ensuring bond prices stay consistent before they make a move.”

Smokie

appleman

Who knows? But now the prime rate is in the history bottom for sure.

年轻的心

Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?

* B/ r, ?* z  C& ^8 j( S Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.
5 \# U) S3 L# E: l/ }! f
Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.

! ^- Q0 Q! Q# f* LBMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it’s because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."

9 A' z/ Q1 h- A# gHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
9 o; M. }9 Y. ]
5 e$ X/ O$ @( ?6 B$ ?5 lThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.

If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That’s a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.

But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous.  While you’re waiting, rates can move the wrong way—quickly.  

. Z& g) l% U" u/ A+ p2 S. SYou’re usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.).  Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.

今晚打老虎

到底涨了还是降了呢？
5年锁定利率现在差不多都到5％了把？