固定利率会回调吗？ 这是一个问题

年轻的心

Yields Down. Rates, Not So Much
7 x9 L4 p( T* Q% S3 m, |
Canada’s 5-year bond yield closed near a 3-week low today, settling at 2.43%.  That’s down from its June 10 high of 2.81%.
% ^% {9 f4 F# D
1 j& u! A, r/ R, s- c. j$ x. s

$ |( R! B1 j' n
! l  r+ o8 L1 e5 w3 D
While there’s been a noticeable dip in yields, there hasn’t been much reduction in 5-year fixed mortgage rates (which track yields).  
6 |: J; K1 u  t# y- R/ D2 c3 y
At the most, we’ve seen a few non-bank lenders drop 5-year rates by 0.10% lately.  The Big 5 banks have not lowered advertised rates at all.
" b3 C) @" Z) Y  ^( U6 w8 u7 E
1 m  H. L+ m) m0 j+ O6 c& oOne lender sent an email today suggesting that banks have changed their focus from aggregating clients to profitability. Given the banks just went through a vicious market share war, they may be less inclined to discount rates now with only four months to hit their year-end income targets.
The lender went on to say: “There may be some movement soon, but banks are ensuring bond prices stay consistent before they make a move.”

Smokie

appleman

Who knows? But now the prime rate is in the history bottom for sure.

年轻的心

Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
( u$ L8 E* n" k3 e5 ~" i4 P) |( W
Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.

! Z8 Q; O* Z: R9 ASince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.

BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it’s because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."
# Y+ i# {. I7 }- \1 ?7 Y9 \1 a% M
% y. x4 R: s3 _: q$ NHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
( L1 A% y, Y% q* ?+ |
8 w; |5 a, u) R' v* z6 h0 b* UThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.

If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That’s a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
6 G3 C7 i9 }* H; n* F! {' t2 m2 }
! U* c3 K" m/ [+ V. W1 Z( LBut remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous.  While you’re waiting, rates can move the wrong way—quickly.  
( L. g5 A3 r6 b
You’re usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.).  Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.

今晚打老虎

到底涨了还是降了呢？
5年锁定利率现在差不多都到5％了把？