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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
* Q! _- l9 ?* W- u2 tEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer$ i/ m% [6 B% ^" H
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager" f* d5 y& m0 G+ i
Signature Global Advisors' S% `) o" R( u# F" F

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' ~8 \7 l/ ~% v9 }' v5 QBackground remarks! O% ~$ j2 O" y) L
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) E2 e0 |( R9 a
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.- ]; x' N) y# M7 v4 ?* {+ U% I
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, Z) x3 T2 e; hadjustments." o# i; l1 z7 A3 z+ r
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social6 w# l* x/ `) @9 E$ M1 Q
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.' K, z& P; [6 T" `
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are! F3 O  O/ \! Z2 N' c" V1 @5 B
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.8 J5 W$ |% X) [9 J7 P9 Z/ s
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
: V# n$ X" `5 r; ~adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
6 B7 ?) k. f8 C Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: h& t5 W$ {# y+ |) equantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.0 m2 L3 \8 s- c& I$ P$ X
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
4 L0 P& ?8 z9 g% Z3 g2 s0 L Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have. e0 v# @* I0 K4 Y
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation  i1 ^' q, L8 N) K4 {# v0 V8 V9 J% v
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- E& j7 G- T  h' M! P% z- _as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
; m4 _) g# P1 D' l+ s/ ?9 ?impose liquidation values.0 Q& m/ G" r* S( X& p
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 `8 @& `2 s0 b5 ?% t2 L3 h; A; a  f0 rAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view./ G0 S; T: j4 \' Z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension* e7 K  o0 y. q2 l. F
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.0 a) L1 n! F+ d; b' y9 x

1 x# [; j$ K( \2 k8 Z; xA look at credit markets
5 S. d( g, i; R% @& ]1 @% t Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, x+ J7 ^) L: W6 D9 d
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.% U/ Z0 o* N9 w  ~7 I3 R
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 ?% t! Y) g' i6 k% Z% D0 p! g
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
1 _8 z% q: g7 L8 \billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
; C1 o; A+ ]& c$ T- z7 l+ gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
7 j7 I! U/ U/ x% D9 S" oCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are1 A; q- T/ N& a" E! [4 d, }) Q- y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- Z/ @1 f2 G: J Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, T0 }) f2 V1 E7 I
finding financing.
- a" m) {7 O7 I' w3 B; z Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they3 q# Y& a, R2 V+ E) o, v) {
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 Z% t' e& }/ V Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 B( }5 l; [4 l. }( U
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( x: \7 v% {% o' `  Igoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' y* [- R. D0 G3 ?8 L1 q! F
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
7 B7 |, I, U) ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain& n8 t+ e: }' H) ]
today.
6 m  W% j' U9 Q& G; t5 ~ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 Y# b' y5 z7 S( a. {emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda1 P4 f0 {* I1 V7 p& |6 c
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
7 L1 U" J8 \3 `( @( [8 P* V, [, mthe Greek default.
+ g( [) ^/ U6 O9 P' {. ]$ t As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
4 N2 o: [, `3 i9 f( |4 D1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
9 K( C; ]" h' ?! b7 A2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ Q0 |- U. T3 V7 B$ i* k* v0 w2 odebt stabilization, needs government approvals.) U, X, e; J1 U% }0 |
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing" f5 b' H; w2 u
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years$ k8 W8 L! N" a3 [+ u3 i
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.1 L5 w1 k& e; v1 y( E
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Beyond Greece
+ h7 L4 O% g: q8 k& U$ q  @ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: B6 Y5 C0 p" `& ybut that was before Italy.
& g) W0 [, y# J& T, f+ m, H It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
+ Y- e( P4 ]; Y+ r& O6 @' t+ J It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" X9 H0 M5 z, K! fItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion+ S& C: w, S# W& ~
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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