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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。, Q. i4 ?: q! S- P
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Market Commentary
- p4 o3 ~8 j: mEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer5 ~1 F2 T/ _  ~+ u+ ^' p
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager' `3 c1 h# s. w6 y
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
. q7 e" L9 }" L( v. F Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are& j( h( w8 H0 Q
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
* m; s9 ]: I# u  O" N Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 l9 ^2 M0 u- U( ladjustments.
- j2 m0 K: s' A& G# `' } This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
7 g0 v1 U$ G! T7 o- o. Osafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
- I6 n, q. \6 z7 G" f Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
9 [2 ^8 z1 i/ M7 \# \% W- _+ Glessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
& n- l% q+ j1 x) v2 _ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; `  W% V& L' _+ b% N  cadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
5 g: E) B. T# c4 u7 P) H; ^8 h Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
% c! L( c- }0 |4 v3 T0 n$ _quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.; B3 [: b- j! x4 ^5 `( P4 l) f
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.* e( _# A; {4 D) [9 Z7 J
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* Y; F9 c) g- W) ]6 L  P8 ?
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% a* b1 h, f$ v. l' u4 ?" z The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long6 _. W: N: ]2 H: ?; Y1 S' W
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" V  @* ~( h* a" `0 F: n7 h' X
impose liquidation values.
! F" I2 N6 w. D2 S' k In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 t, |8 @( k/ N, D
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# d1 Z9 W5 L! B3 E5 ^7 [1 l
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; a( L7 J' s) z) Y: w
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; w6 R" w' _8 _) D

; z+ g" M* b- }, nA look at credit markets
2 g: b1 b7 a( c Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in; L$ h0 b8 g) i+ {
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& h( w5 z  ]: s) k, o8 W! a- F+ `
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
( q$ Y: u) ?5 A! p+ T# W4 Gthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
1 ?* {7 E* ~. _7 j, F* pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have  V* j- G# |3 Q
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
! |2 x) P; f% H# N2 JCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are9 z- E- x+ a% g" S9 ]) ^, \9 E
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.5 P) w9 F6 d9 |  z2 U
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
. q2 |( O/ K% ]3 q& Y1 q' Afinding financing.
( C" }* M6 b3 w3 Q) L" Z# b Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
% U! E4 E5 s6 q9 [: |were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* r% w0 M0 h2 q0 K# s Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# s  |( Y* o- w1 b& e
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ q: i9 _) g$ B3 @2 K
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 k6 a6 D) l0 p* [4 j# S3 ?+ V4 H6 ubankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
' W/ i* P$ J* H$ d2 ^7 J European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain* I8 r, v+ ^% G( }- H* y) \: M
today.8 U0 {. A# C, `+ {2 l6 J7 k
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 z4 H4 ^5 G: O# Q3 c/ f
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 A; v) _4 g/ |; t: S+ k5 B9 @ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  E2 T5 s% u6 }3 w" ~5 [( H/ [the Greek default.9 ?- D9 u( M& l2 m) U
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:$ }9 d( V8 X4 l& x( J2 g
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default' I: h2 o! r: Z2 i- J( Z5 F* i0 ^
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
5 y% S$ q5 c# I' jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
! E. C/ P& U: v! i/ y3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
2 c+ E2 _& C  ?( s3 P1 Rbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years9 K- w, X, k; k2 `
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
% T& _7 s4 H: _. t+ G; K" r( j% ]! O! j The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
0 Z5 x/ J* Z  I7 w9 C8 K/ ibut that was before Italy.
5 R$ I) x1 T# }( o  E) i  u It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
- @0 N- O* W' I! E, k5 W9 R' ?* { It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ {+ r$ H& ~1 H$ l& c- F
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.) a" a$ H1 j! K
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Conclusion
  m! k% X& o! f' [( M We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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