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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。+ |* f3 f3 V' p# Z  W6 m! Q( T* A

" h( @' w, c- Y4 G6 tMarket Commentary
/ d9 X' |2 G9 z9 ]- s: a* o% zEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
7 s* ]- q& d2 q! q' a6 Z2 oJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
& I4 Y8 J( ]% z! ^5 K5 sSignature Global Advisors( D6 |6 P% [5 C

+ X4 }, _  ?, k+ w: D) Y) {. _8 i, K/ C; b
Background remarks
4 E! f. J7 e8 Q. j$ R, W Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are0 c) d0 M/ ]8 D6 m7 C$ k
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
5 N! p7 O$ r, M9 P" O Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* Y% R  i4 {: ?+ Uadjustments.
2 o- c, A) I2 V+ z0 W This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social: h' h; A6 i+ I( R$ K. Q4 F
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.; {) D2 l3 o( {! [
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are1 T* y! B' K% O* w4 {# G
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.; e" W' V1 |. _  d, D# p
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 ?& A; ^8 @3 K% M! n3 ~2 tadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
4 [) c* T- D4 Q Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s9 w8 p7 v. I' A, O9 U) J
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
5 y* h  S! {% n8 a! e! f) F; _' Y Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
1 \7 R! B# w  I Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 q- H+ s, T/ f" ~) o) s
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation/ N( v$ `: k; Q
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ D9 A7 X/ t4 ^8 ~3 O. j9 a: B. v
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& B: H$ r( z* x" p8 f
impose liquidation values.7 R4 L5 J- z2 p5 p2 T( L
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
' i2 x" [' m7 e. ]' i/ D! K. w( |August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- U- o# B. X  t% R The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
/ X* w2 ?; P5 A; X, K) ]! Sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
9 ?7 w, ^! e2 g9 I! I: J& ~3 d
/ `% q  Q* `7 N3 F5 [6 X( JA look at credit markets9 v. \0 ?; e( G& ~7 \, O
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
  A' c! y# {+ i* u) a, Y* o- x0 BSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
/ b8 C- Y* m% ` High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) F( p; ?1 H- @, i
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $19 {! B  k' j% t) ?% h/ q# |
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have$ I% q+ z) S3 u. T" x) T
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade9 F6 I% ?) X$ K4 u2 |% D3 j  t
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
: I' u1 f, p5 |4 _/ Opositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
7 h- A& z/ @  r3 M+ c5 k. c Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
* b* I8 z5 b3 ?8 d  d& f$ W+ vfinding financing.
& E2 y6 ]. y8 w( X  \ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
: _  y- Z0 N' _% o+ m2 xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.% ?8 |$ ?- W! c7 A
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
# |& E" @) x6 B* N- Ais now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
( ^* O& M5 {- X. T0 i; z& k' }going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) ]4 W5 f4 A6 M) V4 v7 r- E
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
/ N5 m: ~( p5 X" v% e* V( j) j European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain5 J. G, q. g4 s# J
today.6 I. J& \+ Y/ {* e1 g; p
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
9 l& S; a% f" iemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
4 Z* I! P2 `1 R0 I3 Z1 Q0 U Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for! l" C) E" l& m9 O$ n
the Greek default./ J  M. S/ Y4 I* c/ |' }) f( g, H
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:; u% C$ f' q- X2 G  z
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& u0 _0 i/ L7 z. l  Z9 D4 @( M
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
1 Y/ w3 I. E" j6 [7 w: Ddebt stabilization, needs government approvals.8 X8 ?4 p- e0 D9 c) a
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ m+ e7 S" `0 F4 m7 w
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
9 y$ T2 ?  M6 ?+ S4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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  }9 M- y/ |  }% F; |3 ]& _5 L! P( PBeyond Greece* H( N# |- r9 u+ P
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
# i8 f7 }7 k/ |" ^, |( Wbut that was before Italy.
. n4 B! L7 q7 H0 o$ \. G; ]: z# A# ^ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
; S! m* {! k! u/ i( F It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the8 l. U& w) \+ n2 ]  o
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 }) K5 {3 n! I4 e
. T9 }9 l7 O  z3 L2 T
Conclusion& m! D  d$ J% u7 H* V" {# A' J
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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