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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。5 _% b4 L% u/ y3 a
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Market Commentary9 P/ d* o! |1 M) \
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer9 M, N: \1 ~5 I* L* V- W0 o9 m
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
8 \  ]. y  B/ m& ^, ~Signature Global Advisors
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& c' J) d8 @+ g. u* E! G* ^$ c* M) N5 R8 P; t
Background remarks
3 H( k' P, _$ s' V' z( ] Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are/ J& Q6 G7 E0 [; F5 O( l2 i3 Y% o
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.3 z/ W: v, Z3 y1 V4 R
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ d! H7 O! `0 w8 F* ladjustments.
# o7 @7 _8 l9 y& v This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social0 a" J+ z, h8 T. @0 _
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 T9 B8 b9 L, F3 ^2 M; S
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are3 D+ H6 c' @' z$ p
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.+ @: [, J2 g+ {  f
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these* _' Q8 v% }; ~4 ]: }! P
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
" h% A, E* V0 X2 |1 O6 n7 w Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s3 N; L/ x6 w9 e9 K: c
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.: _7 [* ?# H# K: W8 \' m" Q8 N
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.! g% f% G3 m6 X/ c, e2 w
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
: r$ }( Z! P  h/ l; ireduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation$ `' ~" M$ t) X# Q* ~& D
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
+ x  V) p4 o( e, Y0 ]  a8 N; |as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may' E& p) p  w" w) |+ N
impose liquidation values.) q  n) x  ?; c- f
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 d! ?/ C; W  o/ `
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.6 G4 W+ J! R# A8 u
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 {8 c+ y, y, [  ^5 y5 `
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.; ^. x2 p* ~8 S# q% }4 ^! T. R

% K3 C7 a, j; F, hA look at credit markets% t) `( y! {6 K( I6 _& L- @
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
* w9 j- c7 a: A) r3 W; y7 rSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 f/ W, m" `) X) k0 T( a" G
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%" Y# b  z5 [% q9 K' r+ ]: O
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" n6 S/ X6 l8 X4 a
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have5 M# U. K7 R7 P1 T7 a, ?  ?5 k6 ]* ?
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
5 s8 M8 R5 I0 a4 x3 P) hCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
0 |+ i, H# C$ F# n5 @positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) m6 o( S, q% i
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble( \& F+ X5 f8 ]$ @* x/ w5 U, k2 W
finding financing.
5 e! w. {6 Y" E$ I* G Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they7 ^0 X+ i' w0 C) ~7 g$ A8 d' C' m
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
( n1 n: D! y: T. V Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
" V2 _" s% o! N$ J9 o7 His now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
+ R* e' n- N4 F3 ^$ U6 A) {1 z8 Sgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, V) a& W5 |# A
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
9 M+ c* j/ k- C! X5 g2 @$ ^8 G, n European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- f+ c9 a+ ~2 t8 Ttoday.
1 K( H4 W2 l) T: J$ I3 w Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ O8 j5 Z+ X* n* Y: ~% L, hemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 z4 {: Z7 ^0 b5 _5 j+ n Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for/ r8 c& {* A% [, n/ R% {$ Z
the Greek default.
! {1 q5 Q% R: }+ _ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 E9 W& e' p. S2 L! k  h
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ P& f0 _, B' I8 M' {" @% c2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
) [/ y& Q3 F  z9 [debt stabilization, needs government approvals.6 F  F6 @9 X) j/ H5 {
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
) h7 d( E; u! \5 f6 Rbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
; }& U6 W6 ]% z4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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) |& D- C0 n6 @  P3 L/ i) iBeyond Greece  o1 E( m# V- }& I) Q
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),1 M5 \9 R+ e1 a
but that was before Italy.
- N& l% k, f5 g- j It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS." I$ @- u2 D& l
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& n6 I$ f$ ?# O. [
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.3 i- E$ }) f9 i; [5 U
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Conclusion
' K, ?5 j7 A. V/ g/ I8 @: _- |; {7 R We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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