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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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  R# E" H: D5 V  n5 `. Q: l4 jMarket Commentary! }5 d; Y% t7 }3 T1 n
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer0 W2 z: k1 C* `; X( s: o7 m5 H9 R
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager" c# q; k$ ^4 B% h# r$ R: e/ S
Signature Global Advisors' R( x  `+ m. o" z4 Y% T
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* x, n2 h, \; b. ]0 l4 uBackground remarks
* U* a9 _* f4 i# }# j+ O  y Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; b3 n' C0 h# L$ V8 p
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) p3 Y1 [" i. r/ ]& S3 T Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal8 C' N( E% x. V% R1 s+ t4 \- j" o8 l
adjustments.
1 e' x+ z; p4 {4 }4 M This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social1 @1 O4 f5 b& ^9 f+ x7 W' c& ]
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 l5 b: X' ^6 X. V Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) l& L9 Z( _9 x9 U/ f
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
+ A+ ]/ u/ d: s" [3 p: A We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 e7 _% `- s, U+ |5 B% N* [2 _adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% R$ g4 Y% V% F8 h Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
! ^! ]% r/ U' Y6 Dquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.0 v1 `& @# ~, r7 D# e: W3 p# W0 f
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
4 h. K$ L+ |* [- V! g2 ^ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 f7 _# e) h3 h/ S! s9 f3 w
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation# |* `3 B1 [. L2 R* C8 [
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
0 v% `& p  D5 S4 X9 @) d: Qas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ N5 u; t, d1 g$ M) L; timpose liquidation values.6 ^! g4 h/ L- o8 @* T8 F. \
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In. g" y, K  R% W
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 x# I7 t5 z2 I* x The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
0 _  ~) C* B9 t: l( B+ N0 `' Qscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
: B- |+ t# |, h+ _/ H& n! O1 S  P  f5 G( {9 }
A look at credit markets
9 e" ~; E' @9 t. N" N) O  N Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in5 p% ~/ @' I0 ?: [) U
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& B0 k9 J7 @6 P8 D- \- F( z# H High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 h/ f  H# E4 p7 E* h4 R) `# dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $12 D0 D- k/ D9 h
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have% E- E5 s4 L* ]5 B
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) r1 G# P  S, R6 s8 jCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 p- ^+ v# m% j4 Jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
2 M. [% ~9 m6 I' Y1 s Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble! }8 K5 }& `  x9 t+ A) U
finding financing.
) a+ C! N' T  \4 S3 _& T Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' ?) v' z, j6 q" Z5 ]were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! q+ D7 |1 I( g' c( {
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and( r4 v5 f7 x5 W, A. I: _; u) ^  @9 \
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 n! u& ]7 H- u# m  a
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# R% u3 s: @0 Mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
  N0 T6 K: t' i0 `' w! k' [- { European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( j: L" [4 o1 x3 M- i* ?' |
today.
, \; [( L+ M8 n( _: z' r2 K; D Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 ]* o& F' s8 ?7 z7 C$ _
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
0 _+ z# I% T/ D6 J, G  M Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ ]/ c9 `- X% O& F; H, Y2 Q: Fthe Greek default.$ E9 |, m* Q8 s6 _+ [! W
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:# n3 y+ x: h0 {2 A" h% [# }
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
# r  c- B9 J5 F2 a" o7 ^2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign+ z5 I' Z5 q0 h$ L) P
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.7 S$ e0 v! ^% d, A, a/ M5 k
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ S% q2 s( k* e  ]6 ]7 h3 t) D' N: C
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
: U9 {! U! Q( R4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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" E, F4 ~7 i9 K; h/ eBeyond Greece$ z8 o- a8 A' C
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),8 J' l5 ]. P9 _* G
but that was before Italy.9 }. H! a: h: q! |. P" `5 f
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS." b+ T  @4 D( S6 y% U5 c6 _
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
: r/ u- w# ^& uItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further./ f) ^, N8 F7 c: Q* D; n: S! ~' d/ N
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Conclusion0 k# d5 Q# k! I, U1 N/ }2 J
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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