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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation0 a5 C7 r$ n3 M# c
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long& ^+ I3 {. N* K) Y* e9 k2 {, V# u
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may8 P! k' {, V P# T8 G
impose liquidation values.
- Q9 `7 p4 C1 p; Q/ { In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 [- q1 D/ I! X" @1 L3 s, K* g8 K& }August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
! X% t# {7 w/ l9 E m. y, c The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
) J2 h4 Q/ L: f! P/ Yscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) \( a K1 R Z6 x/ p- Y4 X8 y
. Z" z# U! H0 [4 Z6 ]A look at credit markets* q$ i% o( i0 G( `6 t8 j
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in4 F V0 e, |; b8 \* N
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
X2 r+ X$ G5 `; Y G; B0 z High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 i% w2 O- c7 s* a! ~& e
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% j/ }2 e* h" C2 K
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
. @% G, P' z: _' B" V" \access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, C% J4 ]) W9 z) A! DCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# O, H7 F, x% ]* f9 u, |. c9 `
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ s* R8 W3 @/ c7 l; R; q
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble' k( q7 r8 |. h a. j+ M- R
finding financing.* s% |1 X! Y1 ]' ^1 r" A& Y& N
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
4 S, W/ s j$ f# U1 D. h3 y0 uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
8 ^8 Y3 r' g/ H9 Y# N Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 B+ f8 O% W; ]1 C5 W
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- e5 [. R+ A0 \# F$ W2 ]
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# Q6 H* ~7 v4 m lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
, _4 _: L" g: x7 N European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% V! g. |4 V& I; L& Qtoday.- H, \/ B5 u. o( Q3 V
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
n0 ~- l0 Q f3 M( Iemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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