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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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( C, L3 `" X  p$ ]1 aMarket Commentary' o" g! k9 P: `% q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer3 z8 y. q8 q9 _
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 i6 w- j; X8 ]6 ~' j; @# d
Signature Global Advisors
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5 G3 v- d3 s, x# u( lBackground remarks
( M1 t) R' S& }0 {2 `, ]8 C Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
" d. V9 F3 Z' N7 O* b# Eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 Z( J- V3 b$ g$ s' P+ R/ [; V& H Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal  M  [1 V$ [3 X3 }7 A2 l3 J
adjustments.
3 |2 q0 Q$ i2 | This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
% w$ w* _0 A& [8 g- d3 Nsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.. \- ]( g  x( E
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
" I. X4 Q& K+ i: V7 Olessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
( k; N& r: t8 T- G4 C+ r3 C% l We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ n' d) B$ o# o7 N' \0 D- b' V: c; kadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 y( b0 S+ _, A3 O$ A6 l8 s; a4 ]! p
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
6 G3 a8 c2 g% E4 \; Aquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.) I2 Y- h1 O5 z) e$ S) X5 y1 F
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.0 f# `0 A) e+ o
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; d1 O4 y$ ]9 v3 y& X/ B7 Ereduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation# I1 l4 R' y* q7 [: H, C! z6 A
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long* P% |* b/ ?  k4 ?% L: M! Y% g
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may  F% x3 [! L' C
impose liquidation values.8 L' d: p: E( W4 ?$ t5 L& R) C( C
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& i- C- V: j8 G* P3 UAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. S8 t$ M3 P. ?+ k- q9 I  `
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ o/ b  P7 ^  a
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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' v7 h$ p& D" w: [- F; WA look at credit markets
9 ?" q0 O! ]: a) `5 P) O) { Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ R4 J9 z* {2 ?/ l, _6 E: q; j
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.% _; ^1 C% q" f5 K& s( o: F
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! w, P" h8 Y- ?
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
6 W' r/ {5 Z! e8 ?billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. @) r$ D; D4 ^0 L/ z; P! m
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& }$ g/ G' Q) F; q& W1 N
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 x  v$ j( L" f5 e+ F- `
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.! T; n; S& k. b: o, E
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 F+ i2 Q0 w' d+ f, T9 E. P, k
finding financing.% X( P. |( @+ F5 u
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they+ x2 ~5 M# R( `
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.4 a0 G. A: a& d
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- P; i  O& U5 K% R( \# v
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- E' R+ p" q+ U3 g$ R
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! G5 B2 h- v1 U! V0 A
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; p  G: G3 ~8 Y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain2 Q" q) {& m7 K( e
today.) B; e8 c! H$ D1 w% f
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
$ ^# w( _, Y3 Bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda: t% U7 i4 C2 V1 H/ a; f; i
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
6 U: N$ {: c& R. _, f- v/ t2 {the Greek default.
+ H+ t9 l1 J" A- j; C) s3 E6 F As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  l' T. W8 m: I4 H: e
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
: A! W  b* K. P2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign4 I4 y+ `: W2 m# ?8 A1 s# g
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
6 R# s( N0 S' R) b$ I% E" Z3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing' }" }  d- C" C: `! r  F
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
. k0 w) `4 ?- N( o4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece4 U; h: P$ Q: u0 e% K2 a& M
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" T2 t' m% r( \6 kbut that was before Italy.
( l9 b6 @2 M& X2 f% M3 u It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.. I$ @- W1 r% A! A+ R
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the0 J" C) m$ M4 y  \* L# X4 S5 a
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion$ l- O: c: B+ H0 j, k% |+ ?
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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