埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2764|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' t  n1 Y0 b# a% g) q/ g( N

* `* W$ Z7 p/ X! e4 s! z0 wMarket Commentary
8 D6 s$ X& n+ N8 [3 ZEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer6 U, n) v, _& p  V* g# s+ M8 }4 Z
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
) @  O0 f' s' R# G& R; M, mSignature Global Advisors
% v' i+ X; O5 j( s3 |3 q+ y$ K4 ^2 |' g

: d/ p3 _& k; R4 wBackground remarks8 q( q& P) ?8 s- o! ~
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are$ b  N- l2 t, L' R9 E( w
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.! Y/ r. F& ]/ `2 C* z
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal7 T- K" c( T, }4 D: S) }; q
adjustments.3 X! r7 L0 \8 i
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
5 }: z* ~# ], t0 G$ U7 nsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.# Z% e( j' \. h
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are0 t. c; |8 s8 _
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.4 R3 h& v( {( W0 `2 I
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these! F/ c9 O3 T8 h
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 k# I7 {6 w# t" z0 z- C# x
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s: m# y7 `- F3 ]% M0 j. g
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.( s1 i4 _" u: V( i3 O4 H' f
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
0 l- r- I# r9 ]: R2 v# m Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have' ~, @1 A: O! i# q1 K/ T
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
3 ]* \: z+ n7 g3 j6 ]- G9 E5 d The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
  H9 m$ f# _- V) }" T) T4 Has funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" }+ i) E  |; V- q' `  Q( }impose liquidation values.8 ]0 J7 g6 y! ^. Y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
0 v- }* J& [/ t, iAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 A1 B* D/ y1 f: n- Y0 j) ` The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension' ?5 }3 T( j: s) m
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
8 m$ x( p6 W0 A8 L" S& e: d' \! J' J0 D+ e0 F4 b
A look at credit markets
! b7 z1 ~( m* N Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 H  \$ d7 B9 S1 {+ Y$ n# S; cSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 k& b+ ?) `! k' X, p High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& R0 c* ]" r: d8 G. e" Q3 Dthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1' S2 C& P! z7 |0 q) j
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ U9 z/ i# F* Z0 \; e. y0 `( c) vaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
  ^+ }7 R) p" k. Z- p0 hCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
8 d' d" U% P) w: K8 r% t/ Ipositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) b- m+ q! Z0 S
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
& m( \- @/ a  _3 ^% yfinding financing.
( ?4 O" i+ c. i' ~5 G Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they- i3 G9 o6 n9 |+ [* e% l9 _
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 M  k2 ~: z( N; P+ G4 R Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 Y2 g! _4 s1 l1 n; r) v4 V" vis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were: O0 V% l& ~" u' r
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for. ~& N  I; u, Z+ t
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 L- k' x0 w3 o9 }5 |9 @7 J European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain6 z) k1 r" w' h$ Z! B
today.. ~- u  ?0 S3 [/ U
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in2 h, D" a/ c$ r3 @0 o$ @9 A' d/ [/ V
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
3 c8 @7 \3 \' g( V; t Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
! t, a0 b7 S8 v& Wthe Greek default.
+ {0 O. W9 @/ x. |7 q As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:% c, |/ D% S# Q3 A
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
4 i4 F4 \4 F; _! M& {) Q; o6 I2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign2 S# b1 a  K6 H8 R0 K* w# H
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
5 _3 `& X7 O$ ^! y8 Z: t$ X3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing& o' n" h- Q. R+ I$ v  }8 w
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years3 b4 w! o- U" l- Q8 k
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.+ f# X/ a9 H0 r$ T7 ^9 v( R

1 ]% {1 ^9 p; ]& X' TBeyond Greece+ d; t4 q7 `# A+ {
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),5 g$ i4 }' [* f, f: p& ?
but that was before Italy.
' S& v# [9 N( X It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
9 a& N7 n7 g0 K' x( p1 y It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& p3 W5 x1 G1 ^1 C
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.3 H8 I0 o+ ?; t& b* ]3 m5 B6 J; u
6 Y8 G2 ?+ R& J7 J- t0 p
Conclusion
4 M# I( e0 M. p4 |* K+ f( a We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-3-18 09:02 , Processed in 0.272572 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表