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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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0 T' e6 I! j7 L8 Z! VMarket Commentary2 F+ I. x0 k/ Y
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer4 j3 o2 b/ [+ m9 R1 Y8 f6 N5 h1 }2 v
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager: `  _; b! [3 V3 ^6 P
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks  D: v: {$ y) d& P6 I5 U: h. v
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) q& I: _, g# Z( W, J% A  g# r
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.; }  a: Z& s4 B( J
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
+ g( ?! S4 J5 Q& v. n5 ~1 M$ l( zadjustments.
  ~1 d: K! m% _9 b: I This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social4 L* `- m+ I3 \( Y- K
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ x) g' ?3 d4 A4 v' l Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are' v$ N& k# W' O- I$ I
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners./ Q/ C: h' ^, |' [4 p
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these5 ]# i$ R: M: d% x& }
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.4 k- z  F: ~/ E% C* d! h# h
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s5 L. L3 Z* s5 l
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& G0 o+ A0 j5 r& {0 ^2 M  G4 E
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.. t  ~) _! Y8 g; A  F  _2 b" z/ O7 L
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have$ a: L5 ^& t* i5 p
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
$ N. Q% u5 J0 L& _) q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
7 @: R% ~2 A4 w3 @2 }( Fas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; u+ R. ^4 F5 P, r
impose liquidation values.- V( K) r) Q  I- U4 \
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 q( d& M  E4 W% x- y  j1 R  w; sAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.; F3 V8 u! M) g& ]( b/ S
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension: X- D  d  p# @4 c
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets( E8 }) s% }+ z4 I. D. O
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# e1 J' |; \5 Y) F& S/ u$ D( p* i& O
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
: P* Y) t9 L0 d( G" d' Q High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- x) e* X, b" L9 y: lthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
! n- D. X* Q) Vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have  N( m1 K' ~$ H3 ?1 l
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ [6 ^6 |( x! A# U: h" W
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are  I  W  |9 L* h$ A9 P) ]+ i
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.2 E+ O: i  r* h( R; S0 y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) ^) i2 c& o+ C7 B! j( o4 xfinding financing.
! M7 B6 c3 m* r9 p Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
& O" ~1 q, X0 {7 [( w/ M2 B8 Z) Ywere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- S7 E% n# i  L: H8 D' U; F
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
* t' A) M+ {8 k$ D& P; bis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 z0 j( [' W  [5 E) c2 P7 _
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; U0 X' c, I- y7 p/ i/ Z6 _1 n0 W
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.% o: j9 F. @' Q
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain- c  \! e/ m- |! `5 E
today.- |( ^3 D' S5 Q7 s- g* [8 V; s
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: j, M: b$ d, V' S3 P. s( wemerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda# e2 }/ y7 `( p2 F! B
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for+ p7 B; a) R' ]- a  G# B, X3 {9 F
the Greek default.; h3 w9 l/ w1 |+ z; ^
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:. A: t  l9 T1 ~, D6 k
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% F3 j& J- H! r) d: B2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
9 B! ^. {8 B8 \# \debt stabilization, needs government approvals.1 e: y% n2 x9 J  q* V; ^( J
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
1 K8 [& o0 ^+ ~9 ]7 xbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" Q( V% D& [3 d, @/ q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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; E2 A; V+ m! _; Q2 KBeyond Greece! B) ~. }, T, g6 p4 i+ _
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),# m) S; W) N+ \& a! a  C1 ^
but that was before Italy.
; b' v/ T( N2 s( [3 M6 h It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.3 d* ]" t$ q- |$ v
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the. `4 V7 ~9 r4 e5 W$ X
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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