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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  H! E. w  J9 a, N3 }
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Market Commentary; F& p0 d8 ]/ @% F4 O
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer) a$ D$ M: k% L! J2 ?
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager8 i# R3 Z2 y2 M, P
Signature Global Advisors1 d3 M6 `5 V. X6 q
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Background remarks
- H5 F" ]+ d! P! V* w: m7 t Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) C7 P1 t& `4 I+ d' R" P
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
+ j% ^: t, n- Y6 S" M; m% e: r$ Y Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal' H8 ]  |; p4 g2 [% c6 ^' K9 h
adjustments." M3 A+ X. ~/ n; z/ p% j( s
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social6 c0 w# n- C3 ~' s, |) O
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* Y) y( J) G; @4 I4 J' g Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
, Z: X. O8 V$ n# p, ~lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" o" b+ N8 `: B We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
5 s* G2 z: ]- Y  f4 Z7 Fadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
# _) n# @/ j  g4 i# H- P Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
- s2 s3 l8 O  pquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
' u  T) X' O& i* v3 q Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
4 i; @# \' A* l0 Y& ?5 `' ] Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have$ m7 L/ |" i" i8 _
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
9 V1 `: O7 U+ t) v* {6 n The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; O; ^* L( H0 Y& Aas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 y) U- K7 H; E0 h3 U
impose liquidation values.
* ?2 [" h: U# v# O In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 q% [( _9 n# C) k  Z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- C0 n. H8 r* S2 m4 l& [' l5 H
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension. M9 ^; u7 K- W& y" \& u2 T. e
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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" z2 F  c. _. }  wA look at credit markets
; S6 l' q& K! U. A6 n Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in8 ~8 _" P. a2 w2 Q1 k. b- @0 B
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.( B$ G$ I9 J+ \2 p. h& x
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 [% }# }3 h! z9 c
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
* o+ p/ E& G0 b: y+ D- Y( T; U+ hbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* ?4 N4 A& I8 R" Z" w8 E% X% p  A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade8 ]0 ]( ^! l) ]2 D" P- ~! C
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are) A. k/ t1 q/ C+ N
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- r3 n6 V0 J7 C: {- S! u  E Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 x  @: C8 u6 Q. p# Q+ @$ |
finding financing.. V! O+ m( ^! {. X; g/ k
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 V0 o- a0 W5 |
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.) M* S9 g5 N+ E2 n6 c
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) p, A. C2 R4 ]' w" E
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were: c" |2 m" }7 n( n5 O! [% t2 t
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( C& b4 [6 `# sbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- Z  G- V: k6 e2 O/ T European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain  Z9 z% y* i( L4 Z2 O
today.
# R5 z- o7 x7 _2 M% c. V0 y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
" n* n1 |3 G$ m! i; n" q  {1 temerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
+ `0 |5 Y( A" E: c& [1 R8 m Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for6 _2 H/ u5 O  P% S- T& Y
the Greek default.
" J$ g$ [% t5 `- e8 D/ s6 z" G4 [ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:: p' G0 ?5 L0 n6 z
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
% I  D" ], W) a7 }# ^1 c. [2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ f. N7 c( ~5 U' {" T; i; sdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
# @3 Z) K" u6 }  r& W9 u  g& Q3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 }! V  @3 E% E2 I( z9 d
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years1 r' p! a1 ?, C
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.+ O3 F# v6 Q4 E
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Beyond Greece
7 R' @& m3 f/ E The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
% `# g; f0 u) l1 @- ~% \  B# Obut that was before Italy.& n! D4 u/ K7 e
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.2 O! m7 l1 O  N1 ?' x1 K
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
' H) w3 h0 _8 Z  B; k% X9 rItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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