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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
% U. v3 Z- m1 {2 t' d8 b- bEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer9 X! X2 `* V1 W
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager1 A/ f: H6 Q7 f4 z  m6 _
Signature Global Advisors- _  w$ E  I; J. ]) v" J" I
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: s. O% G* P  R* jBackground remarks0 x0 k; U  n2 H6 m% v- m0 C
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
! [  D% a' i% W) sas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.% D' z6 P+ T8 C- J
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
) u6 }5 T+ @  i) j( p3 l& T1 s5 Cadjustments.( J1 s- s0 R: a7 a  h
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social& M# ~9 I" Q, {/ t6 |& S# n+ {8 w
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.9 `% p! I% I! v. R4 x
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
  F8 @/ q7 G4 ^7 I9 {$ Llessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
$ C3 E% S1 d, B; f) [ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
6 a& j5 H3 Z5 z" ?# T. Badjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
4 W& W$ B$ X. i$ d. P. u Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
5 M/ Z8 Q$ F7 ~5 R% I/ w3 X9 l" m8 k' @quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.) m  o- k2 N7 m. G' G) C  y
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
4 G) v2 a- G7 M3 E9 _, ? Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have5 ^. G7 ^" T* o9 n
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation# v% H0 m. k0 |3 U! N3 |+ a: L
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 ]0 p( V8 V& ~
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) f) s$ T& G) x4 N! Fimpose liquidation values.
+ M- K9 |+ y) }% F! \% l In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 v( q  s, d% J" m6 v3 Z1 g& u
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* N; V: y5 x" ~( W+ a3 ?
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
$ P: R' C) Z! H2 ~5 c$ _4 oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.' C5 v' N1 D; p( j( j1 ^
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A look at credit markets: C; i) Z, k3 c. Y  ^
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in/ {" P. ^. ?; V1 H+ o
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 Z6 o4 Z3 P9 q  l High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%- Q5 i4 D. G! j" F' ?4 ?7 F" L: d6 E
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: }5 Y( ]0 J/ p0 r, U0 k
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" \8 r% i" g# A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade( B7 O( w6 U# t  Z5 ^
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: q; c  z) a2 Y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 E& x% o  [" ^" q/ Z Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
; m) m' j( P, N/ E1 s! d# m# n7 C2 ?! Cfinding financing.
* L& s% T5 b. E" g8 A9 r2 X; S Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
& |9 T* J* a5 T6 `* h9 M* j5 Rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
. G( c# m& }; R# ]) z0 z9 R Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and! B& \9 J2 P4 i) I/ ?0 o
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ W+ S3 Y. G% m+ M
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 ^" w3 w* X% `2 v6 F# B$ i' N" k
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.( _# J8 ~7 C1 u. H2 `; V  V
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ W- g: f/ p7 |* r* e2 w8 U, }
today.* S' r; U) C' w% ?! `+ }
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' ^- h# v, I* {% D0 L$ k, I5 Temerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda# i. f+ o" d9 a
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for0 Q9 h! {6 d8 W- W5 g4 ~, l
the Greek default.& W2 S( u2 q" A+ d% P5 [
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
; x% Q# ]5 O1 ^8 x: _& e; c1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default; z5 E) c: r5 f) b# `
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign5 X! \5 P, Q5 {
debt stabilization, needs government approvals./ T  Z- l8 O4 k
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 e$ c; ?9 ?  P' V1 w: zbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
* T  Z* D1 Z4 O( a9 r# u9 K7 ^( t4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 r" z' G+ W# [- M5 o, L
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Beyond Greece! q  v1 _& q5 b$ A. f/ K) ?
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 V/ ^: l7 {* \1 ^' m
but that was before Italy.& D1 R4 ~: p! m$ U
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.+ D9 a8 N5 I) d$ Z
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; b4 ?0 n/ U' e& n+ p6 O
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.$ w# S/ `9 Q! b9 q

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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