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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation. B+ b* v' Y G" O
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long1 l- C) O$ ?' ^* c& ]/ |; Y6 u
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may9 p1 b" _' x4 Q9 L, L5 y: w$ R/ o8 Q( V
impose liquidation values.
6 s, Y& O4 E; K q8 `% B5 { In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In& R: x% V5 b* S) A! ^
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
" p* [* p( T: X, `; c6 m The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 _ E( X+ R0 ]5 {scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.3 Q" k& j4 f0 t% O5 a$ ^4 J a
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A look at credit markets* C/ r. ~' J, X
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: I' r, b6 n: [+ I) {' y. y8 B$ ySeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 h& B" H7 ?$ y7 ?7 B6 {) y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
* n H# B1 O% t& r6 B! P/ Rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1: f3 m) ~& q. ?8 W, N
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have8 x5 f; p8 k" {, X
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, w% z8 Z; I. X8 o* X) {
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: S4 Y6 `. y. b' P1 g( T* J$ ^2 Y4 O
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) S5 g2 j. K! L% x* l' ]
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 z0 O0 @7 o( Q* J2 s) W2 D
finding financing.0 X! h0 j" `. y) Y9 ]$ H) o e
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 ~8 [: m: B! rwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 a7 R* C T# e0 h% P4 x6 X Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and$ n9 c- ^& g/ o! u/ ~) C/ _ G- Y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ Z) P3 A9 y3 i9 l: w
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
* x: E- k; I5 r+ r. E ]bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
" [1 Y! ?8 _- f4 K European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
8 g0 ~* q1 m6 V, J; Ktoday.
& |0 A* O' @5 ~- O9 _ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in1 M3 k. D" m* I0 p" `; Z: @& R
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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