埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2107|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
& o8 Z0 s7 E$ Y% t0 p
9 K$ F4 b" [- K2 P% tMarket Commentary
& G/ [# j; ~1 M4 m; F+ x7 OEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. B7 [6 ^( I. ~$ `3 Q# @James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager9 R) R1 l4 L3 D
Signature Global Advisors
% Z$ [" h& |7 B. Z1 M
8 c& O- k7 g* t9 `2 R3 m
1 `' t7 P- G- A! f1 g0 b, o; R- {Background remarks  R. q  p' M; j% D
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 L1 |) k8 {# v7 I9 eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.4 A5 _: ?1 U6 b; ]
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal& H& R" R  l+ C6 \
adjustments.4 H9 l- Q; z- a
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
7 }& h6 C  W1 ~, {safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
5 q/ J* v, ~1 U7 }5 ^2 o% t Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: ]7 p) ]  F1 k2 f3 T) k
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ G( c3 @2 q7 e We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these* r* Q0 A" `7 T  ]8 G
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 ^6 i- o9 P$ o$ L' `" S" U
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s' K/ G7 f( f9 w7 W( z+ l5 b& b
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.( M7 F# S, m7 w* p8 x
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.+ b  g$ C6 z4 N0 q; {
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have0 V! S% L3 ]3 z1 A  L+ T7 A
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
) a; h# Y) G& V. G& q8 e The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- v' ?3 N+ w  o6 l  r+ G/ Has funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
! {) S# j! O* n) [/ ]; f0 N3 Z( nimpose liquidation values.9 T8 F: f9 e5 ^% ?5 y: i/ G! R
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In# U+ W" l  c& X4 ~& L
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
  |; M9 N! T. T5 U* f: H0 O+ D The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension/ K+ Q' F0 U9 K
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
7 B* M. G. v2 F7 H& p* C, |2 ~. P1 T# x1 U- Q; F
A look at credit markets( n# w. p2 {" K  I! z) r
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ R5 u" i% Q! j% \' L6 f$ O
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
9 r3 u$ E8 |% e, c" [+ q, F! p High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%  Q8 h. F( Y# {4 I( U) g
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
- G* A( p; j0 a$ |. Y" s5 p8 ^billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* K  x5 G& g: @0 u+ d, [
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
6 W( c! _1 o, |# lCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 ?4 _/ c/ u8 N+ [
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
) j* J5 X6 V' |% S" F9 o Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 n3 ^$ \9 o5 [$ n: Efinding financing.. k( P" ]8 w3 z' r0 \6 F
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 A" q. {! J* c3 P! L  e$ J6 [were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: R0 I+ ^2 o& V3 c0 m; u
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and6 h, ?. E3 ~. b! q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
  g, G7 [  B5 u. j5 C3 r# Ggoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) _0 X' r0 {" v
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
5 m( \9 c7 n6 }: J1 B" X: A. \ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
% q1 A) D0 x3 m3 O9 R- g* M. Utoday.
/ w# G9 G& O0 |' [ Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% O. u% U: ^4 o9 t- u+ Y4 f
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda1 |( k5 D& R% G
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for. e4 E3 s# W, ]
the Greek default.3 T' \( ^+ M! e* S  w
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:, V& a9 O: r7 K! S$ {
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default& \. I: t1 j1 H3 E/ r/ m6 ]6 E
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
' V' F$ `* l; x) G1 i3 A9 {" R9 jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
: W3 w) ^- d5 y& i1 e3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing  M3 X0 M8 g8 y9 I
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years" O: R/ e: B6 f
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
8 g, b  G& I( U" Z
2 P$ `  q) O1 H" eBeyond Greece& J0 E) j/ c. k3 B
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
1 K5 e6 I0 |! o# T3 p. S- Lbut that was before Italy.2 }- Y4 B$ W' W+ H) x$ \# Q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.& g3 ?: Z; _- T/ E9 T7 t
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
5 Y5 S2 I  x( F! z9 YItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 I- L6 q7 a8 v
0 J' j6 h3 M2 ]8 U: u9 g5 q& X+ j
Conclusion  C5 {/ x* I" ], c8 h
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2025-11-29 07:33 , Processed in 0.161007 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表