市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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. n% o; Z. O; y# e" Q0 Z- R) ?Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
& x  E; `# M# m# W, N+ bJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors

8 n; e7 f( n" n* O7 }& s" G+ D
Background remarks
- m1 W1 d7 u! @  O+ T9 g0 R Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
" @  s- ~* A/ ~4 ?lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
$ Q5 T4 A4 F, V  b Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* x4 A% r; A5 w# [2 j* h Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
; K8 `+ k5 c6 ^* y7 b0 _- Q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
. I( d. d8 X( N* c/ x9 f: J7 Bas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
+ I/ D6 r+ o1 @# z* j/ y0 Jimpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
- t: ^) {- P2 `3 |) L Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ z: d% a; k# p* x  V6 t( [5 Y- hSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ X1 D% x  X! q' h& \positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
4 X: B; U5 Y# b: G4 _finding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 U' n, w* s3 Y8 Mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
# Y# ~5 K% C+ e2 T; t+ B2 K$ _ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. S, o  l- G; w9 F4 X) S; B; y, t& l* Etoday.
; a0 P4 X) `) T+ s# u4 ?" T( _- Z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
# C4 I8 \1 F& J! Lthe Greek default.
8 Z  M3 \/ _, Q4 B! ?/ Y3 o As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
3 s0 }! U  ~: o) x, N: t3 Gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
8 C9 K6 ]: E# j( g( @/ d* r) @4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

Beyond Greece
4 z* i/ @) u+ G3 o$ t! M* S- B The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
+ J. n. I+ v3 l) r9 H' q# D It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# {; a1 R2 Q& Y  B2 k) N8 [Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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& R, o* A0 ^4 M' `  v" cConclusion
" W- W$ {$ x. C* n We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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