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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation, `; K; A' J. ?3 `5 [1 s7 y& z1 l
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& Y& z. i+ b3 @) cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 S% j. j7 ^9 O6 b
impose liquidation values.7 Z% s# Z1 |: p, r6 ]
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In( w( O( w0 y6 A) x2 R# l. ~1 V
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
# A1 @1 ~/ {; ?0 d" ~, C$ Z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; R4 H* J, b: l$ [7 o/ b1 iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) ^% d7 P3 ]( j& P7 e9 c4 r
# {8 S4 B9 p5 I* s6 B% @A look at credit markets( n( C7 `( e# K3 O" z
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ `1 h7 J9 o1 R8 j4 h3 _9 u( u. [September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& E3 d8 W- C* ^6 o7 J6 e5 f2 { High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
5 x0 f% ~$ S( V! ~5 n! e" N# T5 Fthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 `) j/ m- U( t8 H ]0 z( f. y: cbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* T& T. B7 U% R$ n7 k$ S
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ I" H% s2 |- C0 O
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& I% @. A) w4 a: v! epositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ L0 t! k1 Z% U
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble3 C4 H4 B' s+ y% K; P
finding financing.
U2 u- V0 F/ v, A Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
! J* ` i2 g! v) l( w' W2 L3 Zwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 B! [ S2 M% d( N8 o2 }( U9 g
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and: S+ o$ d1 M8 v* g8 k: I, Y
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* \$ A! M( z4 o
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ T W$ M/ s7 rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 w1 l% M; \) K: |5 H$ }, ^ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
' s ?# w3 W: W+ ~* c( Htoday.5 B# f9 U: J6 `7 v
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# R# `! |6 Y/ l, @9 C, Semerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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