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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation$ X. r/ \: \. R" t0 g
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long9 s/ a" v) d6 U
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may/ a$ |2 r9 f. \- C
impose liquidation values.
3 V7 Q4 |/ @5 a0 I& Z In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 c4 |4 h* a1 Q; K( j' f5 o8 AAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.7 F! c( W7 Q' e4 Z, m- _ K
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
) o$ q# w! Q8 z" C& i$ w# Kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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Y3 y) l2 D5 N: O9 D) `2 |9 t% vA look at credit markets7 A; z$ E! R& |8 _1 ~
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 Z# f X$ x% W0 t; d5 I7 XSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., @7 A$ t0 X$ ~7 e5 M
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 p2 V/ }! N& U/ e$ ^then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 [8 b0 R& D! p" z' x8 J
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ t2 h! t' S7 {0 Vaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade" T2 H3 Q; H' ^3 c' a
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are1 z; ]3 I9 l5 [* v# @% }& P8 ^$ s8 ~
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
A4 M* ^. c' {. I. P+ ~ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ d% S- r6 y3 i
finding financing.
$ D3 w2 S% ^' W4 B$ M Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
9 e, q6 {( k6 ]4 O/ iwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.- K4 ~% n1 e, P j2 I( e8 E$ q" M+ i1 e
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and6 X: N% y- n) l6 }
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 K* V! J+ Z& Y' K$ i
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for4 A3 a) W9 |1 `; d1 x1 L i
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.! m* [' A3 F6 J6 w" R
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 A% Y$ F/ Y3 Xtoday.
. `( F U1 j# P+ z: U Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
* n, o/ Q0 J; \& c4 |( _. oemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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