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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。7 f: k6 q) y+ }7 J: p
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Market Commentary
' t+ Q4 K$ x  ~) Y3 i0 _% A8 JEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
' _) m/ L  f# |. L; `: P$ v' zJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager1 d7 r; m5 k8 w9 W
Signature Global Advisors
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& A+ ~, G6 n0 ]8 u. R6 T9 RBackground remarks: `: ]. \# }. D2 S0 M
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 @8 `0 ?+ R- ^2 E# a/ G( [as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.& b2 W3 s: G6 H, X
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
7 U% {- n' g3 v8 F, v# X9 Fadjustments.
$ y% L: f0 k4 l) y& g9 D This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social/ P5 |  A5 z6 s- @* {0 f
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ l; R, O1 |0 A+ a8 C3 Y. Q Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are/ e4 c4 ?2 M+ m5 w8 g1 r
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: [/ d) l0 s* Q9 T3 W) f7 a We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these1 T8 U1 e% J& a. T8 W/ M2 F3 ?
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.7 i0 Y9 j' v$ r8 [
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
+ U  Q* _! {  }( C( o$ Rquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. j( @! a. Q( }- X
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
# Y' X" s4 W5 S Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
. F* P0 |- g1 o' s+ |6 R4 [. Sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" K7 g; e3 \6 M8 T# h# c* A% @3 T
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
0 U; S4 f7 @; ]( pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
% ?! n+ n. l* M. U3 ?impose liquidation values.' q! \- }7 P& y, P# m2 q% u* w  x
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In2 F/ X3 H6 R3 U* M. O9 N+ g- l" x
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.  u& g' [# H- m. l+ j2 i$ d; a
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension( }: m+ l1 {) V& \7 `7 k- s5 ~7 u
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.. q4 t" u4 p' D9 \
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A look at credit markets' d( S1 s3 f$ y6 E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in: y, \5 p3 F9 c( y% Z4 D" c8 c
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
# [0 g/ ?& l+ Y! u) J; Y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%* O( U( [& w! h/ p2 J& u) R  T
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% h: B1 ?% f: x" k! N
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ \* B9 m& @7 D; saccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& X" _# E9 v* m- [9 F
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 N) W, l3 t8 z+ @+ apositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  [3 s7 P1 D7 S$ [" z' Y
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
6 }, Y. l; q1 f5 n  C1 X' R8 p4 h6 W6 hfinding financing./ g5 c$ ?5 ]7 W( c) H6 S
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they! W, e! j4 b4 p9 L+ k
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- k# N+ G/ `! v1 F) A' y1 _, s( C Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 z, Q, p, d6 O' ?
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were5 R. y* ~! ~7 |* X
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 J6 W* b1 s4 o- Q# Wbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
7 t- {4 P9 H: U$ F# X$ k! ` European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 m0 z5 o+ u: V/ Itoday.
$ j8 C* T+ O- A: U. {* m4 h# S Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 N- h: J0 }: s* Q. b
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" C2 s) i3 s5 M# M* o, z% g Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for+ q3 F2 R4 K) m5 ^. [
the Greek default.
* Z: f* I% B$ M4 S As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:# ^" U$ y( V% `# M2 k
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default0 M! q  s1 j- {$ F& d8 q- `$ |
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
5 [6 [& R, c# Z# O! Rdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.5 o7 J1 r* \; x% G  F# `
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
$ u: H* N) E: b( s- g' Jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
* y* ~+ d  S5 T$ Q! ?2 y4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: K- T& N1 C1 R* U

8 ~% ~: V9 P1 f# I0 VBeyond Greece# p9 H% p( K7 c* V$ D) f7 H4 I
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),% w, b5 r+ l& F  s
but that was before Italy.
. a% s9 e: V; B! a It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.. Q. x3 ?/ v7 Y  @& d' I2 `! S
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" P% u& C$ H7 m& J- z; T4 nItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.! z: ?. h( m7 G+ Q, x
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Conclusion
3 M( R$ Z7 F: j/ M7 u We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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