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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation( |7 r' S" [0 `
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. H# y8 S5 p) c& g' A, } E
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may5 Z3 s. g, d$ _: V8 u; m8 D F
impose liquidation values.
0 w9 ]( q) M/ E _/ I! i! X, j- l7 h In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, M5 `& c' p. \& |/ f" b! Z P* nAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
+ f# i3 H; Y# u: N The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
; H8 T3 `0 V: M0 d* ?scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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2 y- q; `/ X/ f4 f4 @8 p* {4 @1 qA look at credit markets
- h7 X+ M! Y# l/ _7 Y) y Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in& p& q8 b& ^3 E* g/ j T" J* q/ j
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven." w& t3 S* U7 j4 }# I9 j. J
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 |: f' a: s, p
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1- |2 ]4 a3 J3 s2 d- \0 \' F
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
. d% B. L; @6 l2 c: Naccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
, b m' t" J: x2 s, |CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
, I5 o7 f% r5 x4 ]1 c$ |" A) P: N3 {positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
' m. d' K& z" H, \: F+ \% _9 a Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ M7 s, {) _5 zfinding financing.7 a. Q% q- Y/ T4 y) C! T8 w
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they( s: M$ I& J& q" R# L
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* Y/ ^) e+ u3 _# C; D. U0 H Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 P4 p y" C8 V6 Y. n2 eis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 F# h. P1 d: j! z7 K6 V9 J
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ q) r, u0 J4 K# u$ a
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.) W/ h* T. j1 S- [5 [
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* ?6 j0 i" T# d8 w% g2 ntoday.: \) |9 J4 _/ s
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. d% U& z* o! I+ Xemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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