埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2772|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。% h0 X3 n; a! }
+ {0 K$ X' O- W2 @8 |, `
Market Commentary1 U$ R8 U2 Q0 R6 R5 Q* \
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
6 V- |4 _  g/ t3 }9 `James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager0 \4 K4 T3 n0 x0 w
Signature Global Advisors2 B! O9 J2 q2 v8 W/ C$ H# g

; _7 l$ u4 X( r6 G; T, ]7 |4 c4 a
9 W0 J3 c* M3 ^0 [. s2 ~2 CBackground remarks  j9 c+ e0 o2 C" ]* m& L
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
3 n  y7 o/ l, d# n0 |. Eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
0 ?; p: k% K/ Z, ^1 | Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal7 |) s4 Z$ r3 V
adjustments.
) [# V9 j  c$ F3 e This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  D/ D; j9 V5 f" D+ k; W, B! X$ Lsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.3 ?6 L7 _9 b# M1 i' S1 o6 s$ R7 Q! T
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are3 x, ?* u: `8 {# {7 A
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
: x/ Y0 k8 L" @; C% D We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these4 E1 P8 P5 {$ V- m" k. x" N" e. v
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
# ]+ {8 l4 Y6 a8 [ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, ]& }: ?$ |$ g- G  N
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.2 z$ S- W, x' g( S
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
7 {, U/ z) t' v& h Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
$ E, q& V* l  U0 P. [* breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation0 s) D, }; ?# T5 d
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; Y, N; w8 Y8 Y/ O4 |5 D9 Has funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may, ~3 O4 u# n" m! ]0 I8 ]
impose liquidation values.2 I- v" y1 m( j% T
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
. F( |- G! `! Y4 I. p% LAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( R0 @- _& x! }8 b& q+ @
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) `2 D' w: c8 V9 y- V6 }/ r+ R
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
( f: m, I. G9 S1 n
' R8 e( F* n- r9 v) vA look at credit markets
( y2 a& u4 a# ]7 u8 `/ [; C" f Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ e3 X$ m* y# @( R
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.) Q6 i6 Z  J, `
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ v  L( Z' l0 g* K1 A4 L
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" I1 V  t5 r+ y6 v8 q6 G; [
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have4 l; Y( g' H7 d: e
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
5 |$ j+ d% h, K+ W9 e1 {# pCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
+ F3 U" P: v8 i: Ipositive for the year-do-date, including high yield., ^! n7 A( i/ A& j( D6 y& `
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble7 H; |: x; \% L- O7 R( I. a
finding financing.* a* O% L* G7 S( e8 D& c
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ T' V1 J- k( wwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
/ E1 ]0 X. d( A, U9 |0 U2 j  e* u Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and  Q- Q% ?( Y/ H/ o8 \+ V
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were% A  t# W- t9 g/ [. F5 z3 f+ l
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
! _2 Q2 h+ U9 g3 f3 [1 V" d5 qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.4 L6 `: S% @/ |9 r4 Z( o
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- l, [; F9 g1 P' [0 ^" Ztoday.
$ P5 c! {0 b0 N& B% Y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in, d" W# v$ i) T" K. [' i
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
  \* s( J: z- [8 f/ a+ d Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for: i& e( x. S. P! [
the Greek default.; Q# s. ^5 d+ Q
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
/ P" @; o4 ]& k& P& ]. H. s+ l1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
- I. P) I: i# v/ V8 F2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' [+ {4 A9 Y+ w2 g4 [5 O
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
; U' F2 [: Z/ U( Y3 k3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing+ X3 h) L5 b0 [
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years4 G% R1 t3 ?1 y
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
- D) ?7 G% B4 @$ G  D  }/ @
5 ^; r7 E) P: x2 y# T+ mBeyond Greece: b  M2 G0 U9 U: \
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
1 H! u5 ~# }0 Q" [6 U( `but that was before Italy., ?0 ?  g' @& f( m: l6 ^
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
! K9 p$ Q- T# m3 Z& q3 b1 r: G It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the4 m* i( v1 D1 P$ j, W4 T
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 Z6 n7 j* [. P: g$ ~
+ G! ~/ N  F" v1 d; F! O/ y2 _
Conclusion$ E4 G( S4 ]* ~% Z3 Q7 v* [5 ?% O
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-3-19 22:19 , Processed in 0.079638 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表