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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。9 P" h+ Q/ k0 [3 }7 X" v8 J' D

# P4 J3 Q/ Y* r# `6 jMarket Commentary
0 N9 W5 ^9 i  B# pEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer0 l7 C' Z2 A( m/ p3 h* s
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 ]& b" D" S3 N+ W/ [) oSignature Global Advisors# S* f7 w+ J$ C( ~2 c$ U
1 j1 O4 Z$ G0 o, m, A5 }/ @! j
1 w( ^- w" A5 U/ C9 l: B
Background remarks
; W1 ]2 D& j; z2 \ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& j$ X# Y" @- B$ `as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
& Q1 u1 ?! k/ W+ L) l" A- b0 G Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, E; m6 t+ U+ B' f4 v7 e5 d- k; yadjustments.! u5 Q+ V5 c! r$ I
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social8 ?1 h% G/ R$ N5 A
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
. F- \! T! c: D& C2 m$ z Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
$ h3 m- ]  D' `lessons to be learned from the frontrunners." E, }8 w4 V) Z' O) c
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
2 `$ j& |4 W# M# ^' eadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
  e$ T/ h' q  `2 p8 C4 h- H! X" ?% c Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& A, A9 g8 T5 C$ Bquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.2 J7 R; a9 o- A8 r, W% f: F
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.' \  D0 N* L5 `# {/ K, t
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
8 A5 V# Q; ^$ `. nreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ S% x( E- x' C9 X; D& D7 @ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, {" B+ k  L7 _- U
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, x8 H5 w6 F9 uimpose liquidation values.
% n( o* P1 m+ ]& D: a In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  `; h6 v' q6 Y7 h% PAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# i7 x- `0 b0 ~* P
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 }: d0 X# E0 R7 [- Y, z. d
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.7 J( @1 r* [* Q! f) A  K5 m' J' h

) J2 Q+ U6 J: N% p; i+ m/ LA look at credit markets
: p4 |( W% C  |) |; m! d+ ^ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 \; N! d" W4 Y8 A4 }September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) @) W# v- B! O) Q$ J' ~$ R5 ~ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%: ~' r4 e" u( `, N8 T8 y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 D! F2 G( h+ t5 \
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
1 F4 r6 a- t1 _6 r# Q# x9 Naccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ s, h1 g" F7 V6 u
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
, r, l% B; y0 }6 [! ^positive for the year-do-date, including high yield." k& B3 B9 c: r9 G0 t" a- W
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% \' U' H) R; x4 ^+ b, w9 F% h) I
finding financing.
$ C+ L. o! L* E  F6 K Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
' T6 z# U7 R2 N4 R* Xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.0 Y* H( m0 E* V4 o
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# M5 ]' a' c( W! U* O5 Z4 a( z0 ~
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ x( G% v- ?# a9 i& U* c: H- hgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% m4 \$ v. y4 {8 A& _" H
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 W7 X& [, `3 E) j# |% l- d European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain7 w+ L3 @8 w  }) J2 |. r  O7 R5 n
today.
+ }& H/ A4 ]& D, i% ^6 S" D1 a Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
3 }+ _" r  P, L& [8 b6 J  remerging markets have no problem with funding.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda7 B0 q0 V" ?; Y* [4 Z: Q/ r" D
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  ]! C3 f2 U0 ~* H& g% Pthe Greek default.0 ?3 x7 o! ]( n9 \- U
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
4 H- W3 Y9 G8 R. C9 e1 P) H, ?1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" U) V. M/ F& X5 V* P8 Q! a
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign% u, B" `6 ^! o1 N
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 d. r% l  B/ `2 M! r
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! h- {8 z# R9 F5 [& Q( }  ?% cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years" A# d# b9 P2 w" u
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.! r4 l( S/ [2 [% P8 K; t
  _  W# ~5 k- W& D: u3 b
Beyond Greece
$ R8 _- n+ K  o9 u4 W! g( y The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. i6 M3 U- a0 |but that was before Italy.
; N, S$ j- M) ~+ d# P) Y3 |8 P It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
8 _- v! ^, f+ T3 P It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the/ K' P& ~2 |$ @9 ~
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.- P. Q7 s9 M( l+ g1 I2 E' T5 \
8 F+ G, |! O* z; a
Conclusion
1 I% Q+ u4 Y% O, G( F2 s, t" \ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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