 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation# @, b, X( o2 m6 _+ z a+ r
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, f; P( D$ R2 F9 f# g# x! U
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
; J! r7 K o* _. q( ~impose liquidation values.
' }, c, Y4 S! ~$ w, G In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In( P: ?( B" c0 A5 H
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 }' t3 [5 P/ h3 q" B5 ~: N* s The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
+ H, w* D4 y( u1 M* a+ g4 }scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
* f( G g/ Q4 }; ]
: h+ N* {$ Z7 D, Y C! _A look at credit markets. [5 v9 B1 s- H! b
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
2 z, x+ J$ `+ o7 i6 A1 JSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.% `1 G8 W6 k; m" S2 F E( ], \- U1 D; ]
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
5 B5 P M c3 i( x# Tthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 ]* K. b& q) @8 W5 ^
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 ]& g& F' G+ W: K! ^& m6 h, r, J
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 s% b; i. W" WCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* w) y1 m/ ?9 Y* [6 D5 x2 ^
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
9 P5 H: W- Z! G. K' j Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble- |- [4 U" l# Z" T3 t
finding financing.$ p: I9 i% m9 O9 L
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ |8 o$ v* k4 ^
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
4 _' K! a! e8 F: I, J3 p Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and& V$ v. n/ n0 p: d/ |
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were7 X6 B0 g- l5 ~8 S' l- E
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for( i7 B, k) X9 U3 j$ k2 S! m
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
$ n3 @3 A+ n# b$ | European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, d ]# {+ e2 J% Y! Y8 y r# I
today.4 ]# w' K/ ]) y m0 j# N# V/ r. \
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 A6 Z& T: a/ H5 S/ n- iemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|