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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。, ~0 \8 ?/ |1 l4 v0 ]* X

0 k3 u/ h8 K1 ^% e5 R$ _" w! dMarket Commentary0 x" Q9 N4 d( [$ N/ Z8 Y8 x
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
% \& Z; }  K& \James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
; R) c7 V  G$ ISignature Global Advisors% F9 j& [" |, x9 |
/ }/ k' M! Z2 r- w8 Y4 ^

3 s' p# F5 e2 GBackground remarks9 t( r9 F2 d% Q5 x! [$ L
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are) A& ?% T9 b1 F
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
. O, h8 Z8 T; K% i$ U' @2 f Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal$ R5 {- A3 R. A" ^8 Y
adjustments.
. p) [, g% l5 [5 ` This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social5 A. d0 u! J# v/ F# k$ S) ?" C) n
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
: I# _4 m8 \$ c2 ^# n4 j4 T: w Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are7 s5 U6 w- S8 G3 Z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
- j& o/ j* N0 r- A We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these& f4 j) N2 H7 V! N# q8 l
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.6 w6 J( ]+ w% b; m
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s+ u7 L6 S  r! i3 ?7 \% \- A
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
- e# T$ o- N- O3 R: d Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
; B* N: v7 `1 {1 |; t  P! m* g( p  |" _ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have7 ]# Q: W: j  O" ^& T8 d/ `
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
; X; L' s$ a) N8 O2 T; k; ~! C9 j The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 u. S! O1 A" `# F  Z' K. f3 f0 Qas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( G: P; }' ^+ p6 G- |
impose liquidation values.+ y) K( ~* Q. U
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 d- u# F! y1 S- z5 i: C
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
1 ^, E7 R1 e% z% K. g+ Z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# z2 {9 q( A. j. x( H+ {$ r$ Sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.6 q0 Q& K" ]' Z
- ?8 n% Q. L. b  e$ L0 ^( L& F
A look at credit markets7 q4 d1 B# D3 K( B- ]
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
* ~2 H) z& P  i# }September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! s# `  O' X  f. O
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%  k/ y& f; n5 V6 R# n2 y4 A
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% e& f9 p' ~* A! A0 ~% gbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
" x0 ^9 j3 R5 v  Z( {' x7 ]7 k9 J1 daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 [$ k6 R8 ^4 T5 C8 `CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are. r' P% m0 L+ e1 G: P8 @
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- {! u4 g" W$ H( E5 j Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 [6 c, J! i8 ]- E) `( }
finding financing.
, h3 T7 i( X$ P4 J1 p. S& ]% W3 J8 y Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ Q; N- G: Y4 }: s7 w% Xwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- s# v7 x# V) q3 L* l$ o: p3 [! L Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
% ?9 |2 x! Y: C. L  R4 G, _9 Fis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ p" N6 u  R8 J9 k
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" ~. b( u' a& N" b7 A8 U* o* [! Q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.+ {9 O( W# M! ?5 [
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
  \4 l$ v6 M: |/ |today." X, h" H3 \& r$ l" F- ~1 V
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in, w: q& J& b- r7 [, }! R5 X8 n0 R
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda% q( Z0 u- ~; Z* a
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, W  F) c5 l+ _5 w- m0 x* Xthe Greek default.
, {2 q( w5 n5 V2 Y As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:5 M7 N  D+ \1 a2 V1 z4 ~3 B
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
" W/ U! X/ {% S) `& G0 B$ `3 F) e, _2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
1 L+ J9 N" V* E4 B5 n; Ydebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
7 m: B+ L9 |. {+ D9 F. _: V  a3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing! O) `0 U% V; I. d' a7 _
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years. E+ \2 J. t0 Y2 L
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: u8 H5 z  B3 m+ x. ^8 d3 W
: _# x1 ]( E8 m
Beyond Greece8 H: P7 E3 }" H
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
: K4 e8 Y" ]6 [5 _) }- C$ |but that was before Italy.8 i, z" Y& A4 P, ~' k9 j2 `9 U
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- I2 y& [8 i* Q7 R$ J# L( J* E5 N/ n
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
+ Y& F6 V) J# D& y2 |Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 F9 X! Z" H, H

3 Y+ ]7 i2 {. t/ N& F. J2 AConclusion$ G7 ?. ~$ d4 j! [# }! z% c: [
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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