市场评论

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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

% O4 I" }2 Y; c5 wMarket Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors

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7 V- J" [& G) yBackground remarks
6 S* u: [8 Z0 k) X) t Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
# ^! N; G; R4 f5 ~9 b0 l Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
* }0 a* l. U6 r) Jadjustments.
; @  X" _5 r% c' Z, A/ h This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
0 P$ |/ E5 S7 c6 n3 @2 \safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
8 g2 L" p& V. w# G4 L- d, L Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
6 n" q/ X1 D* V; b! i  jlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
" U4 Z, K4 F/ v7 O3 b. q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- x9 N3 Y0 R. j/ n% jas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
impose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, D9 y3 r% s& t7 T: \0 Z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.

A look at credit markets
! X; K: E! c! e* d Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) i7 A2 o2 T8 {8 F" m: G- Sbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: F1 J4 S+ E5 I2 |3 g( S8 W$ i: a: x Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
9 L9 _$ L( v9 U% afinding financing.
0 M- i& L  g8 L# J: ~ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
" p7 O7 e- t8 c$ q* hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
8 R  _1 d% J) A) E& Tgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 s: t0 y' x! O+ p: obankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 Y$ C! Y# F: C' w" g# ptoday.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
; D' M/ u1 G. l2 ~: N. ` As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
% Q9 l& w7 J. G# v; P3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
( r& e! a0 s+ `) u& o4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

6 Q  O  r7 [) h: [$ N# d: SBeyond Greece
& j+ s- J) f8 _% k# l The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
# J; N/ H2 g8 x3 Q It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
0 R' t) G: a! Y& e, D6 {& ] It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
8 Z8 I$ L) @3 U0 @ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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