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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
* z1 {& T1 R. F+ ] The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 M3 H( x" C5 f8 ~! B- Aas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
' C$ F$ E% N, h& ^& `9 `impose liquidation values.
7 |% `$ M) C0 J) {0 |" e In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 Y. o" ]% G+ ]( [% `2 Q) V; KAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.) Z+ V& m. Y" M4 C1 u8 u
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension, F7 `7 Z7 b3 n+ |; U! Y3 ~- m
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.) g# J8 _- A9 @$ e: H- ?: d8 f
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A look at credit markets b( [& u) `$ E2 o( x- A7 N
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in$ G; B8 g9 y) L7 ?) P5 q' Y
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.2 w- O3 B1 ?- o! A9 G) w* k
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%, z' J+ X6 ]/ y
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 u9 X8 K) |8 R( p6 q1 {6 S W
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have1 `7 B! P: N. a+ o( c* \: D
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
; O4 L- W, N! E% x j7 j) yCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* d/ w/ i. u$ @' Q- ?) g0 Z; Vpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
; P! f: J: v, d) v5 s7 l Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
- ]; H& e" C" S; _/ l3 afinding financing.. Q6 `7 U7 g8 E. d: I
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; }: a1 s5 T0 S9 D
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals./ Y5 \& B3 o6 w+ H. |- `- {
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 ~3 Z" N& o" D7 M9 I; R
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ |& S7 L0 o9 t& W. }1 R
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 P5 \) j/ c( e: v% Abankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 v8 j' M q1 F& S; C- R% Z8 T% E European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain; N1 s( Y1 P: ?# l
today./ U4 z: `4 M z; l' M# d) ?
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ ~5 \- B$ l3 m- \ K* Q8 u+ xemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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