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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。8 E' Y0 k$ T/ F& K  z3 j$ F- v
8 ^6 m- J$ X  [+ b' ]
Market Commentary
: P6 ?& ?; v, W- B6 QEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. @! ^! [( ?! j  v  ZJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
' e3 \! l0 O. e( g& V" n* {Signature Global Advisors% ^" b8 J1 j0 l+ T6 F  Q; g, q' R+ a
' |9 b8 V, p4 c; \
) O' X# v3 z1 J! v
Background remarks
3 y8 X1 W/ w+ P+ @' W0 N  X Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are8 }) \( |! O* i) I7 v
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' V% u  \# Z; c) T, } Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal% [0 m( z6 m/ e# v9 n1 s4 S
adjustments.  w; o7 O, |9 Y1 j) _5 Y
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ _% e' ^9 S& psafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.! G+ f  e# V2 {9 A# B
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
6 s( ^' c5 v( M. plessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
/ S7 m+ y* A- _- t. y We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
5 [  t; g+ }: w9 Ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.$ ?6 Q% L/ [1 j
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s. m5 G+ ^& v8 w
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
) v$ [# i, L  i; m( O Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
; r) G! L% ^/ R7 I9 k$ w Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have$ g4 {" Z8 H' J) Y) g3 f, ~
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
! B4 H2 c+ L1 q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 a7 w+ N: `8 J; ^* C8 T3 X* Pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may( N+ D3 N7 b. y5 p
impose liquidation values.' j( P! [7 ~+ b$ J
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In) I7 m# j! l" r1 d
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.8 Y3 x& p: H2 w( V, U1 z! t
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
% A8 @3 e  W$ I/ bscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.& l. r$ J/ Q5 f. m6 o! Y

, A6 h$ ]2 v  Q9 q( g$ H& iA look at credit markets4 E8 ?- z. A9 B5 W/ s
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
* z4 _9 d9 o/ F/ ~3 u' S7 gSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.; N! @3 `6 I. u6 B# {+ t+ ?
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%9 `  Z5 X" O/ p( I( ?/ U
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 \; w0 B' \7 ~) {! V; Hbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have9 v  \+ n! L" [5 v5 O" n2 a4 r& K
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
- v* P! Y! @. Q  OCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) l8 Q, N; {; Vpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
& {3 |: P6 V7 H, u) c$ q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! q3 s7 }* C* C9 ?$ V! {2 d( J8 gfinding financing.
4 ]) m8 d, l* i2 I7 H" p Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
+ p: M+ R/ t) R  {5 q8 s; ~were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- W. o. e% a3 E$ q- s+ x Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
5 |: C! t0 O3 l) u$ R9 z; [is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
) V: ~8 \; \9 Z& e9 v# {going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 P" [: P+ z6 \. B2 e" s. D3 s& {( ubankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: u# e* r! o6 s. A
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
# F5 ~  Z; Y6 a( Z6 d# ^today.
' ], E! H) L- V+ v6 P/ H8 d3 H Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in# n1 P' y" b% g$ F/ N2 ^; i
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda: K" v; P( w( I5 u
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for! i4 v& u/ g4 l; c! \& s; P1 g
the Greek default.
& o9 U, [7 z& m; S& Z( k1 [ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
" E( p0 j, m. H( C1 d. ]1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default( n+ d9 Q% {8 v+ E$ M
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' C2 ?7 P% a8 T5 S1 B/ ^
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
9 s8 v- e4 i5 I! K: Q! I: J2 |* V/ y3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing3 X; p- C8 ]# v+ U1 R
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
8 s' h" T" |) v. o" K% f- o4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.( c9 u3 N* w/ V2 P' |# Z! a

4 N; g4 d; S' _7 n! [4 D7 h, s; {Beyond Greece
1 W1 e# Q$ h. ]* V: w" D+ ] The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),! G* A9 q% W8 O8 z$ C# x
but that was before Italy.7 l9 A% y) d3 J
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.0 [, |2 k+ W  Z: N9 u& P! _# C) d
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
2 K- v$ E0 R3 Y- _Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.' O/ d- H0 U6 O$ p( s, B+ }9 z
. I+ G$ u- [/ q6 M" S7 M2 |1 I
Conclusion
/ k( y2 P& ~$ Z. i4 g1 a' F- s% g4 y: l We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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