埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2100|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。+ a1 [8 I: M; U0 v( q) d4 O
  @/ e6 U0 k1 q' V# P& D
Market Commentary
8 A/ z3 c, Z3 C- C  D4 OEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) T1 w/ X$ B3 j! y! OJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager: O6 q( e0 X7 |2 Y6 n
Signature Global Advisors3 U/ \' c% f( u$ i; l- O

+ m9 o% y" G- T, m
7 |7 t! R. m+ T4 R$ w; H0 \3 iBackground remarks# R' r7 ]2 n) u' U6 I8 `
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are6 G$ A/ z! R: ~0 X
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
5 t2 o1 U& A& k Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal# s. O3 H9 C1 j. j
adjustments.6 o' s" |! o  q1 Z  P7 }2 P
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ [) G7 Y3 G$ t% e& i) Qsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
- \: I! G0 x+ { Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are$ n% ?1 j$ m& h7 K
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.' k- L( U# f8 S& z0 m& f' c
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these* P. t) M% T3 L' d  m
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.; D( c' G3 ?1 u$ O$ L8 G
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s3 o5 [4 \/ n; t! H5 M! [" P
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.8 C7 E0 G7 `+ h) t) a! ~9 M6 h9 }
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.1 ]. ^* \# T# t; T/ D, m* s- T" d/ ], y
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have! M  ~  T: W) q! f1 p: i! B
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
8 h+ O/ c- K* J* l The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; F4 b( p; i1 ]5 b' m0 u& r# has funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
1 @8 m% T7 n4 c9 q, v) L* himpose liquidation values.
* a1 n/ K& ?% m In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 T: }# C$ e2 w" H
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 K9 u5 a* S2 o* R( N+ O The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension  ~2 s! L0 R. X' r5 P7 m
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.5 Q9 Z! f. U- Q( @' `

, c  c! Z: m% r$ LA look at credit markets
& v4 }) H' b# e" q( ~ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in( u% D, o6 X- O% z, W! `9 n. j( V# p
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
3 @' g. u' b: ?' E High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
4 K4 h/ z2 g/ d, U7 F- x2 Ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; ~( Q9 e* [# q1 P, S
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 p1 q0 e5 k9 F% H4 U- z* gaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade2 p) T3 @7 q4 N8 `  ~6 `
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
0 o& e5 z+ z/ `/ x) Dpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ U; t- [8 j/ [+ g5 I( P
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 a' _' h1 p7 q. `- l) h) ?
finding financing.0 O( M/ ]: e& j- X. A
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they& Z' q0 D2 c' x/ i9 x; G! a
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
+ V& Q$ Y' f+ Q Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and; r, h0 x5 D6 j
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ t6 h( \$ V& x$ j! P
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for) e; E$ s+ x$ Q" _9 Y" N0 v
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
% I4 l* s% d- O' u" z" F- b European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, c7 w0 l. s& Z, S+ @! Z" Z4 i
today.
1 a3 @& H6 Y$ a Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in! B( }, P/ z9 F/ b! G) @
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda/ Q3 I3 M9 \- B% B6 p
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
$ D+ C" j) z3 n4 c9 ^the Greek default.# O. L+ l; L* p+ k) O8 Y, c8 G$ s
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
- x9 c9 {. `' P9 o: F1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default7 N7 X% h9 S, A! m( d$ r
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign9 c' v: P( _; Y; S$ P+ T6 P1 P9 t
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
# p+ o( [8 i6 q8 V, `% v6 l0 A3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 g) E, k  a. q* o: w
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
- D9 }4 R, y2 M0 ^7 u8 V3 Z# P4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
4 K  ]& B, @, `# A
  ]* S5 A0 L. N# f4 mBeyond Greece- z7 q! j2 l% |4 K* y/ E" C9 |
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),9 W0 A  Q" o& U3 a9 w1 Y
but that was before Italy." r1 v- h& s/ O( v. w: C9 o$ x
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.$ J( H! w) d1 K" [/ ?
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the3 j% a. b5 _0 @9 I
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
; ]) j# E/ t& {( P+ ?" }8 f& V4 \! b7 M
Conclusion
& N5 O! |$ Q+ p! c We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
理袁律师事务所
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2025-11-28 03:30 , Processed in 0.144346 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表