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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary9 L0 |  ]5 O. _6 ~( _0 c3 f
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
2 ?" o0 y% \$ ?# xJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager- D8 r5 A$ Y& v1 Y" K4 P' `
Signature Global Advisors% e: K$ g. G. Z, v
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Background remarks
; Y& B5 B5 d! H: n; N+ `7 b! ` Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are# E# x) \: d* C* i+ S
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.2 [. X2 T: d; G9 }  x# A
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal. O9 H3 v, M) C5 Q% f. v* j; ~
adjustments.
5 w- f. Y" A7 F" ? This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ o1 C0 C: n# c" n- Psafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded./ \* k* d2 v: j- z9 b
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are+ u. V0 X' B* F9 l
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.% q( X% c) \* E; C& |. a, _
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
, l" P- x3 _5 _; o. q/ zadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
5 x8 i  w2 P+ e; _ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, }% M( n; L2 E! I7 b* d
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. _$ ?. ^. l' Q4 e3 R* V- l
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
3 h* [1 M9 Z6 D6 N! a1 l Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
" ]. s- V7 L9 _9 Ureduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation$ o4 P5 u1 I5 H4 Q7 t6 U
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" V! ]1 N7 J1 Y- _  w
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
: V' o) P! c8 a) d+ b5 u% ]5 T  _impose liquidation values." E0 G2 w& @  M
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In5 l/ e. n$ ]3 o* p
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.2 n# X$ t* n! X* Q5 Q' e8 W* O; N
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
  v; f1 e( u, k# I% [! H! m. T+ pscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets# B# Q3 H" G6 i0 f/ k/ `
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 T2 h; C. u4 @
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.  Y8 m3 x4 c# D* I4 Q. H" S+ v. @* X
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%4 i' o  b, ]; R) V/ Y3 R
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
0 h2 u" {- |/ M1 \8 e" _billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have  E+ b# G* ^$ @1 l0 L" K
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 U% l2 R9 J- X# uCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are- w) G, r- Y. l$ k9 `, r
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
1 X6 s+ M; t0 S3 | Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble- x" U" }: ^4 F3 c* X3 W; V1 ]8 n* q
finding financing.6 F$ I7 v0 h* k7 P! i7 V% g% `
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
( s( K; b% f$ Awere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
0 X- E8 [$ y- D Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) h/ f/ x" f! e; J8 ~1 L! Y1 E: O
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were/ L! c! m' o" O& N' Q6 }9 c4 E. ~
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
) @# }5 C3 f: t: l1 h# k# hbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.4 e) r# Q% U# s8 _8 z- M
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& v+ _" B- @- ?" W/ J: _+ ytoday./ U3 d  J5 \( d: k! a1 M6 [
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% H7 ^% w# t, p+ \( A6 I7 a. Jemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 ~- \8 F6 o" p! W3 p Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
( i, @  B: {! p" w8 N  tthe Greek default.
8 B, L8 h- @. T7 h4 E% Z: s# _5 ]$ T As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& T4 c0 i' e' [  |4 u6 z
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
  B. W' ^4 e) `5 {% o/ c2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign, b8 x' s' t5 t8 o
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
$ T; A: [2 z3 M- q/ Q; d+ S' j3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
# ^+ O, Y; Z# T# k8 [* [3 @banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years3 K, e8 P8 ^" ~0 p7 h' r' n0 @$ x, v
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.6 G* J" @* Y5 [; Z
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Beyond Greece2 P4 q* V5 R2 F4 E  h1 B: ]5 b/ z
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),( x5 n. X" y5 A' w% Q5 H7 i
but that was before Italy.
9 ?8 a. |3 K( X# O3 w5 |( e( m% j It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.% U8 S9 ^: ^& \
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
3 x5 t5 m' O) rItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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3 U, o9 J, i* E0 {/ T) u1 D$ n We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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