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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
2 f3 `* m5 n$ v! \3 A& j6 i The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* \4 A6 m$ {5 l; j2 W/ ?3 ?4 nas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may j4 \ U" c0 [7 h: G
impose liquidation values.
* P: s8 _ f; R0 x3 [1 ` In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
8 T# K8 h7 \, Y$ DAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.8 \: G' {5 d' Y
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
! N4 A8 y! m6 ^scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets3 t: }' y3 U4 x: ] s
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in; v) s! i" K; _4 u2 U: n7 H
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* Y8 L. P, y* q6 J High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- S6 ~" R+ s- r6 ]) Ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
4 }, M; A t0 E. h" ?2 ^% kbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" T) ]. N l) y( n) K
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
5 ~' }5 J0 u) FCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are& i) v# ]4 {$ V( T: r& j
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
# W# B* E4 N8 [8 j5 B/ L Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 l' a5 G2 e/ z0 _$ F6 X8 u" O
finding financing.$ Q# `, p- a4 s1 L# J
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they+ F1 n7 @3 I" Y7 X! N
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
* a0 \9 u, j; N* q Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 R& l0 p7 F$ c8 d
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
7 D' m% h ]$ l& k1 r6 \/ [going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for" z% o: r+ p- Y# V6 l2 F! H
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 E" q& f2 U/ w7 n- ?4 V! E
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
* e% u9 H G$ N9 t$ itoday.
o1 F5 H. l! |# J m$ g Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in8 v" U4 Y+ W% g: l8 `" c" W/ A
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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