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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。& i/ A5 O, w2 n" t

  D1 ~! S. W* |  a) o+ \Market Commentary# J) p3 a  D) D1 @
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer* t9 m$ n; [" c! V, _% c. \5 M
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager- B4 D& {- e* j8 L/ w) D) V
Signature Global Advisors7 S0 i$ i' T/ d" X6 V7 H9 B1 O+ |3 d
9 z3 R3 T/ V  _1 K$ x$ a, x
# W, C; O0 @9 I5 L! V/ f
Background remarks; N1 }9 i; t. A, y% B
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
6 [4 L% C9 L5 W- _" a8 was much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.* V& V. o$ c5 U" |7 \# i# v
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 G7 f2 i$ c0 L- n" ^" }8 R7 g3 nadjustments.
/ u4 ]; Z/ k" j4 j( f* Q8 B8 y; C This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social  j1 O/ _: y9 u+ i8 ]
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.6 a. ]; {  G, k% @3 B
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
+ z( v$ ]' v/ S; O/ m- m0 Dlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.3 G, i; a$ {" g8 m8 M
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these3 s1 u8 W( \  J. C+ Q
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.0 Q1 s5 e$ R5 c, S0 v% @
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 N, y4 ~: b' V0 U+ v$ Wquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.: s+ Z8 q3 y/ t' g
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth., t" a6 J! N7 }* _: q; h7 a6 x
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have6 @9 r7 t' @, r* ~+ H
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: ]- L$ |9 N0 u* X The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, q+ v2 z, ~+ f1 _- Q4 a
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 |6 X( O: v& |2 C6 R) x1 O) e
impose liquidation values.
# N6 I- Q2 _" }- q In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
$ `+ b( l: S; f* PAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.- `! Z" ?3 q* W( v5 j- T
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
. Q7 _( }5 B2 q2 X8 O8 oscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
( X) _  I2 C. x( `( L7 b5 S# v4 k% `# R' Y, f
A look at credit markets: P2 q4 l6 }; n
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, k; ~4 f# H+ QSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& j! e9 W+ E0 Y5 F5 }$ @9 C) e High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
2 z" O# ~$ ^: y+ I: b: a! tthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1# a% |$ u7 y6 L% I
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
" h  D/ \8 ?/ T# x& J+ _* raccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ i# U5 D% U- F
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
9 D; K, w! H: u7 U" r2 {positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
+ x' m3 O' ?$ S1 k( G' h: ~ Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 ^+ F1 }* \8 T4 M
finding financing.
$ j& G' ?: `0 j Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 m7 H, e3 i4 W. H) g7 _were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.1 s$ c! p% I7 f8 g: U
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# m: s& G% L0 q# l, d: k  l
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 |$ S" `9 U! x* h* {: k& V4 e' V
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 C# N6 g) D5 H0 m2 S$ k" R3 w9 p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: H; g4 z2 b; S% Z: Z
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain0 S8 H+ g6 l) W2 {
today.
! q3 f) t" p7 g  ^6 M$ { Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
! q$ |( }+ A: S( N8 j6 Z6 Pemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda& n2 @% k, O" B) N6 H0 E; u. v2 n7 u9 l
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for; x; u' E' C8 c' l
the Greek default.0 ]" T$ z2 A, v4 u/ W
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
( k/ g% S) ~, ~6 P3 f- N& h: c$ W1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
& M8 d% s( V6 S* e2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign" R0 l$ |, U- K+ |; S, n0 Q
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
6 v+ `/ k" G4 ^. @3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! Q# L8 Y; p5 z! o4 z, n# Xbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
0 g/ i) Z8 D: W) E$ _  i. l! L4 t4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
# V( W& y9 B3 P7 q( n The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),+ B6 k" b" u' R
but that was before Italy.
$ x$ @  v( _- ?* j5 M It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
9 Y7 a/ U! s! k! O It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
7 z) D& \' f% TItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion) A5 C7 r$ Q7 v3 `
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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