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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。4 @  i# h% Q$ B' o% U
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Market Commentary
% B( M9 C- v, E) n9 w, ^; p& o! nEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, G6 n; l) g" y* T' {( a
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 h) g  u' @$ k7 Q+ E" ?8 TSignature Global Advisors4 x! p7 G  u& c, o

; E$ ~+ N5 x  s% u3 E/ N4 }$ d. k$ s
Background remarks
4 y3 A& t5 I$ L# P% {2 D8 x/ k Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are+ h0 S* P+ |$ V* Q$ s& C
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, u9 B7 @- ~- H) x Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
. c9 }1 I2 t& a* \6 kadjustments.- {+ [) C5 i4 z5 O8 R# U  i& P: D
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social) a9 f9 g1 q2 x! U7 ]
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.! d3 b  l6 o# P1 h/ t( U
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are5 d+ J' S2 i& m2 E2 i' J
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.7 H' N. p2 a7 j3 S3 h- ^
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these9 ]& h8 h' E+ o) {" E/ ~9 ]
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.% ?7 l+ |1 k  K. E$ y
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" H& L. a; v2 O. C$ q
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.- T/ n# X9 `9 r: B
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.8 g  B/ |6 p  E9 Z  P' r
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 w+ Z- ]) N0 |1 Xreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation) y6 {" |: O- o4 e! \6 {
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
# Z3 H5 b) n6 y3 R, k) has funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may2 p2 L" L! j- N- u1 Z
impose liquidation values.
$ y# B: z* h( \2 q: d In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
" q- ^9 x& y/ b5 |9 @: b, cAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- j+ Z" Y3 e% y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
, P1 \8 w8 n1 Mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.. h. @8 v+ ?# o/ ]6 C
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A look at credit markets" f: ^! K$ X0 `  c1 \
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 w* U, I; R$ M& l
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.4 b) o' h" j* H
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
4 A# V& {; c7 |( ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" P; @) w- u+ `' O+ L! [
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ y) M& I4 U% S5 Oaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, l- A! g' q% l
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# t4 R% P% p# Kpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.: E  y0 d5 R. }+ _: m; P9 _+ Z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble) D6 I% r% H* L' [' z( M# H4 u
finding financing.
( k' O" w4 v% e# J& a Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
4 Q: d/ Q( J6 ywere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
6 a& C# \) U1 }, t5 v Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
7 s* _  \- G7 g* y  `3 o# iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, P6 S% Q3 W9 J. W5 @going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 M" q1 j: F6 p$ x, ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.; C8 O6 S: A8 ]  t. e
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain! m, r. E) P- S( e4 P
today.3 M; r6 _9 a# a* u2 r. ^" ~
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in/ s' _0 [) n  M' L
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda* M( C3 K8 u+ O! S9 r. P
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
( V: Y. }6 u5 f! Kthe Greek default.5 }4 W/ r: [) p9 S( g6 `$ q& r4 i
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  H6 g' X8 g3 @2 o' i. y3 h
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default7 Z& Q" Q% O* c% ]
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ Y; I- e( L( {6 k, b4 Zdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.. H8 G, r  e7 X/ o/ u9 L
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
9 N$ T: \2 [0 d/ u  X! s0 zbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years! F" ]0 V# [; j7 O9 y3 a1 b
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece4 H4 P0 Y- @  H! `! _$ m
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 Z$ Z' F7 l4 Q' cbut that was before Italy.
" s% q, Q3 ~5 V* p6 y It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.+ C! M7 p, i9 i% R) k: D: Q
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the# e' N* k$ }6 i2 @6 B& X
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% J5 T6 ~5 M; m; k- Z
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Conclusion' a( N3 u0 F- ^4 y
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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