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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation5 Z o/ O6 c/ g3 m
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- _! t* H$ a/ B( D0 i) |as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
0 N- D# Y2 `1 |/ iimpose liquidation values.
# ^0 p, i, D& b9 t+ C" c- r* }+ x In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
1 q8 Y& E8 ^4 ~( g) b& U+ \August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( m: J4 w, }3 g9 \, r
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension o% A4 [9 E8 J# ~# @' F
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets) Z+ `* V7 r8 I4 I. \- f$ r
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 D2 z3 Q Y- J$ ~/ |9 nSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.0 m& W; T, P& n2 l9 y
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
8 y* w5 c7 m: x4 @" ]3 ~1 sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
$ z% ?. r( X5 X+ g8 [' Sbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have4 b L! |# S/ v7 f
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 b) V" G$ D9 G+ oCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# L2 {, I- e, M& b# upositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.6 o8 k, m& B8 u- l! ~
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 B6 [' b* s4 Z) |0 m% c# Nfinding financing.
( X3 h) X( D; H. @ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
) g! ?+ K- w! M( H$ L4 bwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
/ |( p1 y9 O( ?% ~. c2 I- q0 H( R Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
+ U3 m& M2 {! ]* t9 ^4 _is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
$ k% ?; Q9 f( i! S! {going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
, N( B) k4 l7 k5 U: O! w5 ^( pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 a4 n# \5 f1 d0 o" z) }
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. l2 X5 |" r" u1 z% T
today.
/ ^* b5 f( I5 S! G6 p( Z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' \' T! s' f( @. M; remerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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