埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2262|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
. @( ]2 S; k% A+ O: _
- L0 g5 N- D& B' X9 C5 j0 xMarket Commentary
0 z  m: ?' V' x6 J% P0 x7 A( u% oEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) T* Y, g, V+ d1 m+ CJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
) t6 i& ~3 J3 ?) h: e' R2 x" KSignature Global Advisors* K( l6 D/ d7 j
, l2 T1 g. P" l8 e

) ]1 Y' j! s3 j; [( c# R9 BBackground remarks/ r6 @. [1 S* ~6 N: Z$ ^- G! O
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
; n% e9 g" ?  z: O$ I1 z3 nas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.! {/ Z( w9 j8 U/ Q1 [
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
! }% ]1 v$ ^! }- Dadjustments.
1 [$ h1 T0 A) A) ?2 n: p. `/ F This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
+ D: `) |1 O! t: ]2 s# S5 tsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
4 Y0 g# T' a9 m4 m. T. E$ x7 R  D Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) f% }* R1 E' ]" h9 f
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.2 v( q8 M% I% Z+ n: `1 A
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these5 C7 B7 i2 d. P1 z7 ]5 S. n/ d4 H
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.2 `- [. B: j3 ~
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
+ a, G5 V( |2 r% k' \2 }+ {/ xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
' n. m, w4 Q! m Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.; L" }# E4 u  S& ^
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
+ N- r2 A9 E! f+ d9 Ereduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
- t5 e5 j8 }2 A8 R( t The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long6 e% G+ A0 R! X7 i6 P! P) _
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% E2 u+ K8 d' C. V- O6 @* I6 h3 W
impose liquidation values.
5 C, W+ y; K+ g7 d In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 K9 K9 }* ~# `) U# v0 PAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
3 r3 S+ b" G) L' ?: I/ e6 a The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 m4 t) U& X6 ^0 F& M' u' R
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 e5 \. o4 N" }6 B  {# e1 q
4 I" m- s  A, z# g( s
A look at credit markets
: I4 M6 V! O* J: U, p! z5 H( ^1 V Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 l1 c4 G$ K2 T, b$ jSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.  R+ J. I3 ~3 O  T
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
) `9 R, t; [0 R0 n/ Ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
% r  A! c: y8 a. h4 C3 nbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have9 F9 G& F( C) S
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade% z8 F# e% V- v
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are  Z6 b- R9 H9 K  P
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.) X% E7 k+ Q2 j! j
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble! o. C/ a5 m8 m6 _
finding financing., m0 \6 g8 {  u% g, X+ U; E" y
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they6 I% Z: Z4 U* q* H$ f$ a7 c% W* I
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.0 w2 p  ]6 ]6 B9 D1 M8 j
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: @. K- g) p- Z- F% I- P. q" ris now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were3 M. e4 R  S) C/ c7 r1 K7 T
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 }( o& ?7 x) h% O; u/ ~
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.6 V1 s6 V8 ^5 C! L  a
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- u& O/ {) S5 O7 Ztoday.
0 i/ _$ h& a; l  W  L" x Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in  G4 W) N! X" B$ C, x9 a
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
2 a" a$ m  ?( R* r) Z- G  _ Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
6 Y: F" I9 x0 i( C- ^2 ]the Greek default.+ p& a* a, }3 \* a3 u- x
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:, U2 w/ Z8 v& i" [( t
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
6 ^3 [- Z' _) a1 l8 ^" |, y9 m2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 E6 P  B4 a% ]. y+ |& u
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.( j3 t: D! ^2 I) r4 F& r
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing: @+ [% v7 M9 {% {' L
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years7 R/ Q2 S; @8 m" D" z
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 m  Q3 q  Z5 g# A9 L% v5 L* N% e
/ d; Q6 _/ V1 u! ]
Beyond Greece# O5 A' @! B  v6 |7 [
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
( d: b& W- \9 k( _' ?0 e/ \but that was before Italy.
+ g6 ^. w4 h/ _* p5 a# g It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
( {$ [# T% G% \* _6 c+ j7 m It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the8 N' W" q) R$ h' @7 v" c
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
# M( k- L& \8 j% @% A
5 R2 u3 A  H0 W( t' ]Conclusion% N; Q- y2 z2 j% x
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2025-12-31 11:16 , Processed in 0.095626 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表