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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。! q# ]' X' l" R, w- ?8 W: Y8 o- A

0 @( p' F9 O" A$ [( P  fMarket Commentary$ `+ o8 }7 t6 g8 S: Y; @
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer5 j( T6 C; t& C8 V2 q# C$ V
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager0 l9 g1 a% ^' W' E
Signature Global Advisors9 M$ ?( @; N# p! V( }* U; z/ O

) j- o! D6 r5 c0 C0 q; ?/ i
! L9 I* e2 {, f+ N) W  YBackground remarks
$ L" L5 s* ~% @" z Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
1 y6 @5 T" r" W6 p; f4 Tas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.9 y  A: [6 J/ v7 d
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
0 z1 G- u- ?0 \$ A9 C3 n9 Zadjustments.% i* G+ ~, K: y
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social% r' E# S; y, a2 |6 V* o2 h
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
# _5 z5 W0 k! n5 ]; W2 `$ K Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are2 L  R4 E+ [& A0 G  y9 F( o
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.  x6 \$ j' }! l- F5 L& l& [, l& T" T& e
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these: E0 s1 L) n- ~$ x2 d
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
) f' x( W1 a! O" X9 K Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
" D# Y2 D! w& m% Y/ B5 Dquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: Y& O$ _* b  q1 s* g Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
% Y3 H, r5 o1 Y3 `- l: V2 ~4 C2 w" E Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
; M8 Y% r: c' G: G+ z  `6 U/ Sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
3 b4 l7 T4 k, h  T The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ J6 I$ d8 C  }4 m
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
" G* A& I( h' Y: ]0 y3 Z3 gimpose liquidation values.
2 U6 R0 @, w) p3 e: v; { In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ Y( m& H3 g! Z6 {% J" X$ B
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
6 l0 L9 x. q: T5 f7 u The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension& ]) M. ~9 m* k* C# H- o; m7 H
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# D* J! X) A! m

5 }  b- x6 M5 O! c% MA look at credit markets
3 i0 G. V9 R$ F) L( y3 H- h Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in0 w5 D) t, q5 @5 a, P
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
! \# l0 G- R0 e. C, Z1 f9 J3 R+ A High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%7 [$ d6 B, \) n
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
5 o2 c; ]- T0 b  }: N7 \" h) p( Nbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have1 B) i. V* B+ B3 g1 o
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade( }! x( f# M# m! b- `8 N5 G, s8 f
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are* y7 j4 w1 f' l7 ^# h! N3 l
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
' }8 v1 a6 e7 @7 K Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! t3 B4 ?+ d5 i  Wfinding financing.
! d3 ~6 m$ q7 I  o4 i Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ A& z9 A' k$ y5 {1 @+ l. t% a" Cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  F7 w8 i; g" O; [, h6 \ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
. H6 L; B7 X- k3 _/ P' w  @is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
* v& m3 L; B/ ^7 z- v6 n% qgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 k2 T( d( H0 s. Y; l
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; i) c- n; ^& [% r* m' J6 s% | European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
/ x! O6 P! C' V' B7 k! `today.* g# s7 y8 {; X( J6 p9 ?7 ]; I
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% c0 Q- K. _. H7 P5 t
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
  i) X, D8 [. w" m Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
& G& Y" I0 R- C# P1 vthe Greek default.% D" \2 l  e" ]/ z/ q
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:% I# S  n( i7 [- l' e3 q
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
6 j" S1 z5 m- q$ q5 A4 r2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign1 ?( F$ B+ k# J: M0 {
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
6 h* q: i0 C; u/ u5 d5 u8 m3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
! b  F1 l8 M( s( D' P! abanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
5 Q# V3 _6 a7 Q) I' h( m( G4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
: q6 R0 f: E! M# J9 D6 ~3 g$ G3 j% f- H! S  S8 Z
Beyond Greece
! Y6 \5 \" H$ [. k" y2 @ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),2 P  J2 G1 ~0 }! v2 c. Q) l
but that was before Italy.3 C: [: Y. y2 O' R. M
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.' n/ e1 M; i; ]
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the3 c3 @( I5 X4 E
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 I1 U9 z7 t* ^( p1 b
) Q5 z% |) N- m: F% V! @
Conclusion
4 \$ C- S' Y, K$ R# w We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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