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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
) U$ \7 `' ^5 i4 C/ [' w5 @# @0 H4 ZEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
# v; P$ _4 q: M$ u: TJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
. Y+ P$ y$ z4 v1 F# @2 JSignature Global Advisors
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1 B# h- J4 `; H: T  cBackground remarks
! Q" i( j$ X# M& C Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! ~" p- j) `7 O  a" K3 f
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
8 l8 a" @8 o! L3 W; _$ g* x- ~ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
1 a1 ?. F2 ^) m4 ^, {3 xadjustments.. D  ^6 i3 V  E' U5 v6 i8 n3 k
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! f% ~# R( e0 d2 L8 B& H2 ]( @safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.& M8 A* G6 D6 @1 C8 X
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
. C8 m3 O0 Q  s5 ~lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
2 m7 X! |( K7 u  D" o We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
8 P5 R  X8 U0 d/ Z! y5 {adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
0 T  g2 M) Z: x1 S Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
9 K% h. ?: C1 I- p& [0 J: b$ fquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.8 t+ y4 Y' T+ @9 I2 T: s
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.) w' p) o7 S3 l# B7 |
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have; r0 Q# j+ B) o) ^0 V' M
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation6 O% {% r3 d7 c& k7 q9 y) ?
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; h9 j+ \0 i1 Z9 T  t1 ]' Mas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may) {$ q# h+ P% O) J$ D
impose liquidation values.
5 O) h$ N* a. {( _" z& V In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In/ ^: o& _9 x: R  n1 A, t: r' }
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 `) S. q' w; m, G5 ~& x The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension6 \) e3 U: f3 j& m- b
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 w( V% e( I" p" T! U

: y0 P% i1 I! P. z: ?% z7 RA look at credit markets9 p/ C- z( |& m  ~4 r* j" g
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 J7 w4 I' V  Z7 S& _September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
5 e, N9 b$ [) K& u$ b, \" k9 M High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& q- v! x; ]5 @4 a9 x$ bthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $17 j: M! Y; }& b  n1 A  E2 ~1 s' p% q" y' _
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) [: }+ t7 }+ ?0 ]4 Uaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade" g6 v* w; p4 T5 C
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 Y3 g- m/ B8 C6 a- u: P& W
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  N- H6 H! h3 G0 d2 g/ L1 h
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 ]' P! Y( j8 bfinding financing.
% _& ~/ c; l/ K, [# [/ R Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; J6 \: t0 ~* h) k) B/ n* i4 }
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 Q" C( {6 p, y0 q% f
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 Q$ f7 }  e8 ^9 fis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ C3 K& f6 y) L6 s) O* ugoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for; V5 {# a# d4 t+ R4 H9 h
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
* N2 Z/ ]) v4 V+ u European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain0 k% O7 y5 N  P0 q9 p8 U" K+ b
today.
$ |' }# R6 t8 ? Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 A& D9 @8 Y1 }. B3 Q) o4 N
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
9 q" W) X2 @( J( \# {  {  G5 Y' E Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for+ U+ F+ U: Y  T6 Q1 G/ u8 W4 Q
the Greek default.* B$ Y. w& v8 C" c9 ~. V# B; {
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  i% D# d* e- I4 B/ J  k
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default* W! N" @1 ~6 i2 X' Q
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
( ^% T& I+ U# G, W9 {debt stabilization, needs government approvals." S$ ?: O+ E8 l8 m8 r2 Y6 d4 c; k
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
4 c5 H/ J4 q5 u# t( zbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
( y# r. }; t0 l, O+ F5 a4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
3 B6 u  N( _3 S* C  G# D The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- Y' D  I, B# V  H; c5 t" q
but that was before Italy.8 m; v% g' |! l% {% c. m
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
" ]( K7 g: H" c  A! C  m- i It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
' D4 g$ @3 X: }" s: p+ QItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.6 k7 K0 m0 Q( c+ ]( u% ?! [
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Conclusion- M6 S: x4 l2 Q' F: F0 n
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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