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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary2 K, I( @" f- k/ Y9 J, q& D
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer" d, J# W3 L" T4 z
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager, K- s* L$ J& k. w) e  x
Signature Global Advisors* p, G# Z3 t$ x2 A  S

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Background remarks4 p; J: ^& [0 ]
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
: z$ `1 P2 P; G; I. R4 Z) c: las much as 20% or even 60% of GDP., n# Y' Y5 ~5 C7 T2 Z: f
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal' B- `. U6 P$ J* I& H% s' N- V  B" `7 O
adjustments.5 g  |9 p7 [8 E; r3 s# ^5 Z/ ]3 m
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
' L' u) o( l9 j1 ]1 K, n8 N9 f( wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ s+ b% A* `' S Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are7 L3 _' a7 W' e+ P
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
# h4 I- b, H# ~, w; z We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these, J0 i2 K2 {6 ]. S/ o8 Q  b3 G
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.% A! D' L2 P: A$ z
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s) o0 T1 f$ n, l
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
# e2 S1 T7 {$ q) M2 q& X Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth., ]1 ?. a1 h* ?9 {' r
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
$ Z# B$ D% B  J( C9 Creduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
( ^  E: R( S2 H- i# x% R# w The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 T- g; I" y: }2 l; j6 Z
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% Q5 h! @3 K  `& e/ ?; k
impose liquidation values.5 D1 m( \0 J" V7 P+ j2 x) ]/ w7 k* C
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In( S. G. {; v' Q) |, E6 Z' d
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
. M& x1 Y! X: [3 p& t The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension# B- n: X0 w, A5 v' H
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.7 }4 O4 J- y; i6 y
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A look at credit markets
. w$ t7 H5 z/ ^' \; o9 V6 N6 r4 ~ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in, Z  M. L! s# W5 A% Q4 ~
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
9 n; l2 c, s; r# O# a& w+ Y High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
! E9 p) b; F4 J; e" F. u) u0 Uthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; d$ q# o8 C1 S
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
# @- o4 _% g& m! |2 Paccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade- F2 S& Z- f  T/ b1 o: W; z# J8 P. p
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
. u& z% [1 @8 Hpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
+ F2 g/ g4 S! I* d" E0 F2 T9 M Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble5 g$ Z7 }) Y, G' [) @
finding financing.
1 G7 y9 y( s  G- p' h0 J) X Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they" S6 R; o3 t7 R. C) v
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 G5 @7 U6 }" Z8 ~! S Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! @3 j6 K4 S% ^8 K/ a' ]is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
6 Z1 A! v/ U" M" r/ ugoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( w" ?! U1 E! E1 z! A2 Zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
" `% u4 H) y; W' A8 p7 y' d, V5 ^  G European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain1 T8 w3 Q0 u5 j( K" q" W# c
today.
# i; V! ^. K) R* U; L7 f Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
/ E9 R) i" y/ M4 r7 kemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) Z$ {- F  D, X7 L: n
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
2 Z/ k# n& E* c$ h8 i' Hthe Greek default.
# \# i! H' j2 A" ~9 ^1 R# Z As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ q* f8 G* E; T1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
) N* M- A. s# ]2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
- S3 S$ _0 M. s7 [; Y. Y8 Zdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
- E/ p7 M0 w. i: W9 |7 m3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
  e# n; P  ?" b. ?banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' N6 o- v% ~( a: W/ y4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.2 u6 P. s: I4 @5 Y; J* v) d

/ ^( L# ^( `$ }Beyond Greece
# b5 }; s) b5 N5 n, ~ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),& u1 J0 `, t# `: U
but that was before Italy.- x0 S' f% V2 p% w
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
9 o. N# ?1 R8 B3 Y1 p It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the7 J2 B( I: \+ D8 x* s9 g0 T" [7 a. E
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
: o, O" l  P1 K, S. {9 { We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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