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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。5 l7 N0 S8 w& x( Z% `9 S/ K
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Market Commentary! ~1 y% S* r% G& j- w& j- M
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer1 ]! n% w( D" m. k& V$ Y
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager+ Z- G6 E7 S4 o- }
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks
& n8 `# s' p: Z# q Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are# q; s+ K+ Y$ w# ]
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.2 W/ c5 G- G! F2 t
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 ?- o9 k% X3 d: K9 X, I# R; N5 Radjustments.
1 c' g" W3 Y$ m+ ^+ \2 M- A, t This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
! i& q2 G9 ~: p7 c, F& b1 `5 Ssafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.- i( f3 _/ L' A5 U  g; `& C
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
/ N* w" X5 N. }% b0 Glessons to be learned from the frontrunners.% ?6 Q4 H8 P# Z8 w& g
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
% W8 V% l$ A- u, [. H1 `0 b8 I3 gadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.) s; Z2 l! h5 l. ^9 ~% H' {7 h1 F
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s9 |2 q/ ?; O, P& R0 g
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.0 C5 b7 J/ n7 r6 e0 K1 j9 @/ {
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) [: i' o, N) w' T$ G( b Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
2 ^* H1 i: ]( e# Preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation" I0 p0 |& u- s
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long1 X$ ?2 I$ I6 ^* E2 x
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may# }$ J3 d& l( x( I
impose liquidation values.
. |) A: V  ^" n7 b& ]9 n In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
; s1 D2 h3 Q/ K; w: O8 V7 fAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.4 [/ _( s  q6 i+ p
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension9 V; Y% Y! p2 g4 X, L: P
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.  u( b7 f) d8 `' N, u2 {
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A look at credit markets$ q: V: Y# g5 `
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% F% Y; |6 R3 f& G. ]
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
) B* f: `0 ~& {8 Q2 ^( ^  I High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%' s3 z( M$ ^3 S* C: O: Z- `
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 s5 ^; B3 @/ |3 Qbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 z  A. f4 c. L$ s0 N; y+ iaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade0 P$ m7 p5 k( {6 ?
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
6 w6 |& e7 Y. |9 @6 g( j! ?. Wpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 g  N1 a* B# E$ m Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
9 x6 n6 n9 j* y# Q% S) xfinding financing.' r7 I1 q; I) N. b
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; q3 x/ M9 y) E
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& |& }" h3 Z, ?2 |
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and/ m& h6 E$ I! ^1 n( l, e
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* k& a4 w2 H4 V6 S4 n1 N
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
" I; Y+ m9 E- G# ?  Tbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& \- E. A2 n# n, E3 G$ n+ U9 j European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
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 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
( ]/ r9 D0 ^7 U9 I" Hemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda7 n5 ^" P) V" O
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 H" D( @! o. D7 I9 ^7 xthe Greek default.( f; O& d  J) v4 O
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
0 @7 i1 U9 J  |4 @1 ]1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
  h- d# Y+ d1 b  C2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' `. a8 a& T( D( l( y
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
% u6 r7 y5 r2 U. |% _( m3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
3 L0 ?+ V  V' y0 O5 I' q& Q0 Ibanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
5 [; v3 K0 {- `8 V4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece* C8 R- R# j$ `) A
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
( D6 W/ G3 T' D5 U4 x) j1 c" b) M/ f! bbut that was before Italy.
6 k) S* q4 U. b! K& V; h0 D7 B0 x It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
, F. m9 w- j, u$ T0 b9 \+ c It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
' Q" S: P* N9 |5 _: K) b& K. iItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.9 u, q7 e2 t3 r  @5 ]

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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