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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
( g9 a% o2 h, G1 F! K5 ?  l$ G1 v& C
& [. l& y7 u: A2 Y7 Z7 V' FMarket Commentary
3 u1 G7 O+ D+ n; lEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
; D7 ?" G  p% y9 \5 Z# RJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager+ Q  e4 b$ W* l
Signature Global Advisors% k3 R4 ?0 r6 }: p& L
/ N/ u: M$ v+ B) f

) _4 f6 O; @0 @4 BBackground remarks- e+ J+ @& f3 [3 Q! M
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& }0 D# I5 |! O# t2 fas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.  @2 O0 u  J# F6 p: e# G
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, C7 F0 c2 }  Q; a( Dadjustments.& A- k3 E6 o, j) A' X
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
7 Z# a! S1 d! Y0 v; S9 h1 wsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
/ V. o' _0 ?8 ^3 `# G Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: T0 H3 R7 z( K+ ?
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.8 ]9 r2 b# _  k8 l- w
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these. j4 j8 v: j$ |& `0 J
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* N8 Q( R6 U7 L4 [" w+ b+ Z/ s4 S Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s& @: \0 n' h/ T: a
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
/ y8 p! y# a2 m6 J8 G Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.6 V; Z( \9 q) [3 I2 j
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have8 f! z( p3 [+ Z5 z
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
; u$ n6 Q6 F5 W! \) R5 k The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
% s* a2 J8 U7 U3 Y' q' @as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may0 ^; s1 c0 n5 U3 A8 }0 s
impose liquidation values.& \. \0 a; ]4 h$ ?
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In8 X4 c8 U. J- k
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
+ {4 m/ ^& H4 m$ M* D. h' [ The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension0 n+ n: X2 F0 ]- N; r! \
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( Q5 h. q* s1 R

( d2 z6 |# S# q- _A look at credit markets9 i3 L; U+ `' s' [$ z: a+ O* n% F
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: q7 K8 ]! e9 k8 m& Z1 W; nSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
. e' O( P9 E, {: f0 R3 @* o  W High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 W! Y1 a7 c/ z. f  H" g. O
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
, M7 k. [  v9 {- y/ Y3 ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# J6 o8 b& `4 J) a* {4 c
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade  h% ]0 }  E; Z& P6 I2 g9 k
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* b8 l% s. z8 p1 x5 lpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 o* G. l5 O' G8 ~+ m Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. p6 [; I7 i, D( S5 \6 x' L8 R
finding financing.% n. b; I. N5 J! @, |$ P) ~
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ E& J5 V2 F/ ?% F
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.1 _; }1 Z! ~1 s8 c/ Z
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and, r6 }5 T$ j& [
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were. e: a' |3 `0 X% O2 @! u, T
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for3 p% `0 X2 y3 k6 \- x! P* Q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
$ r9 X2 G! e$ q) e) R$ }7 ? European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ |4 K# P7 B1 \  l$ B
today.: G' [6 z4 M+ f1 T4 k/ u
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' C: N, K! P, X7 O' l' K# @: `# t7 Kemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
5 d( x( r$ J" Z' t' H; { Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for- L) v* K/ g- `: I
the Greek default.. r  a; n/ l, j  t" ^& p
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:/ k' V! V7 w9 A# u
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
! l! d! \/ w% e% s; P2 Y6 e2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
, J2 w$ \" Q1 odebt stabilization, needs government approvals.# x, A7 C* D: m3 i. k( T
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 S" w* K3 P7 V8 s
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
, P) I/ Q( B' m2 s/ w; W4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
: D9 U7 a4 u+ l5 v4 u' D" l: L# Z; W6 P8 I2 F0 B
Beyond Greece1 G# U$ a$ e& D" N
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
* Z% R3 p) f7 C' o) E6 [but that was before Italy.
- _( L6 B6 Q! n8 o% \! c" U It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) H5 n: _/ n6 `' F/ X" d It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" g8 d3 x% A2 m6 }# T6 Y4 Z; O7 `Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
5 V. B4 R) `7 N% g4 T( }$ y5 d We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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