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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。2 l% k; H6 I: O4 |

, `9 C$ u- `7 F& J) O) g/ _8 U3 EMarket Commentary
; U3 j( M* g, ]* m" U9 GEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer: l! ~2 |, h( H
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager/ m" E! J; Z; m( Z7 v
Signature Global Advisors4 ?% p: B7 j  S: h

$ C" G2 [! \  Y
4 Y4 O& o9 ^3 ?1 ]& iBackground remarks
6 V( O) g! K4 Y Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 e6 S5 y2 D8 m# M' ?+ uas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
$ T" ]: T: O9 N: K1 R3 \! s Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal0 z2 V# E9 o; ~" @2 B' b! ]
adjustments.
0 ^) {; @* f; ]7 R1 w) _7 z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social: K' ?4 C; |  c& o) e4 c) j
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
$ N/ y' D. R2 X# A Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are0 L+ p/ l# n3 F3 o
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.( n* W9 H" e( c' K$ b! b' X
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ s" w$ e2 f0 o% S( i9 C; sadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- X. G; y4 W/ t$ b6 l6 E/ N
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" W) Y. p6 j4 Y/ R, l# C2 U9 r
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& b( [% b3 D  x  J
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.* G3 b+ b! g& G9 @
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have. }5 a7 C) @/ _" t
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation: p+ @1 y' j: v4 J% I8 l
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; S, E4 ?* m- z3 @as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 e6 g' m" t2 s0 l& cimpose liquidation values.
( Y6 B) ]: C$ O* ~* P% Z In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% m/ C# s" S* \6 ZAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.+ [: c+ `  L4 t. R  h! i4 M8 e, k
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
6 k9 l: s. @4 Sscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ `  u9 N3 `/ V; o# `! F

- J; G( s$ Q5 |. a1 r# t3 A/ a$ MA look at credit markets
2 @9 Y" a& D0 |' a% p Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in9 T, Q* r3 j( r7 z, ~4 l% j* r
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
" e, v' D! ]  K+ y6 J# e# m High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%0 Y+ i/ L. X  O, I" m
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
+ d6 z. s* n) wbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: n& j" P5 I" ]7 v
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
2 F" Y* x! ^# QCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are- G% t. m- I$ |, n& Y2 V
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.* R: G" P6 x+ x" M( l, G0 K
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
* X% E( T- b4 c) W4 z, b- Ffinding financing.( z& m3 `5 }4 A$ q
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 ]- U& X7 F! cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ ^. V8 s. U" R$ Z$ ~
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and1 }/ l+ }3 e# t8 A9 n' {( o1 c4 _* I
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were  W5 a% i2 F; ~( J- j' O
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 H9 d, d# C! Z. d* L% o! G
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.4 d6 L+ R4 e- I9 j( e/ D
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, r5 j, O! b# n3 Ttoday.
) \) i- Q& W/ j8 S Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( }% M0 w$ v0 g
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" ~/ F* Y0 p. _$ B2 U) w6 X0 T Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for  {1 R. T9 H9 K3 ^  _8 X( }9 Q3 L
the Greek default.# U! o( z' a  ^; b2 N7 r; V% b: w! h
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& ]* M6 `; r5 n. C
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" l3 U6 I/ h/ b* T
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
" o: q+ k, S4 ?$ Q6 H, A& Bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.  s8 D4 b# {: \' S3 m9 v
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
2 ?9 Z3 @* }. d' Qbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
3 ?3 E2 B& e8 G  f* U2 U% R' E4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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* a! b5 k4 J5 W) S3 MBeyond Greece
5 V. Y9 ^8 w& S" F$ }4 y  Y The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),% t& H1 T/ @& o9 H5 D: Y- y
but that was before Italy.
5 i" m: O- N# C, a It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
, q6 e0 s, R& j6 L It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
8 [. M2 {9 l5 N5 c: ?3 CItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% S1 H) |( w/ a% ]- s

7 X' F6 v( Y  ]Conclusion& L" f' |, J0 J/ F! R
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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