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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation* J, U* ^" N6 q' i. l
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# a( W/ a& ?" _) W! _6 p1 k( `, T
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 A. i7 h, Y; k1 Z: w6 h' K( g" f; t
impose liquidation values.
7 t3 c1 L4 G7 H& {& M In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In- B( n- R0 L! A/ t2 Q. \9 ?
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.2 N5 @4 Z) j4 R: u0 T. f
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension8 b. G9 j6 l: T- _ a
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 A: R1 L5 e% n. S0 A
- w9 H* @( V/ BA look at credit markets
: R( P. j* U0 R! o* ^! o Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in% @4 V" S, @: V: D' v0 C
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.3 x, @3 v- D$ p1 P
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
4 b$ a! r; ^& m- e: r4 a) W$ g2 ?( tthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
8 c$ C3 _) S9 X" r( K* ?billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* A/ Q6 M8 i& ]; V( Q) z/ Maccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade/ Z" {+ m/ c$ U, {: o ]$ u9 F
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
h$ S: i+ \7 Epositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
' C$ U9 F: X6 [, ] Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble) F: M7 p! w% q7 F M- V ~
finding financing.
( g8 z# F+ `( g+ g1 L Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they. G3 y; T- t; H+ j8 q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.2 b# H7 B* U7 E* \* I b9 V }
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
4 x7 y \" p$ |1 y' ?is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ c' ~' A7 i" {" U) C5 H& N
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for' M% J* N/ E* S8 `; S) V7 n" e
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; d/ E$ B+ A9 t: h European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. P; j3 g+ O/ B$ ?- ]3 V7 Y. y
today.* l) s! C; C G+ |1 ~
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
! A2 ~" G! o& G2 Y" Vemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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