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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。% m2 L2 R3 W. i/ G5 Y1 c' Q
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Market Commentary2 s- V; w, }# n& W, p' Z
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
+ m% t! Y1 y) b$ z7 q( ~' QJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. ~" c# b" e% U" r. m: ]
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks3 k* U1 p; z3 _
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
  f6 V0 J6 }; w% r3 mas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
6 o# a- E. A) ]# | Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 ]* r2 z# z/ `% l8 I0 padjustments.
/ K( n1 T1 w; Y# t- y This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
/ [" k+ J, o; X! H- gsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.' t. N' v$ |- a. [7 @( P
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
4 f8 B8 n: b0 [9 p+ Zlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
) G! w! M0 `6 I! X- w We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
% k6 f- e% G8 }! Y3 [adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
( e( _7 j  U  s9 `; D* t Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s% \( {+ B& r( T; @$ y  j
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 m. ]# V2 @* w Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.3 W8 j: i+ _4 i5 N
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
# H2 F; A* M9 p/ C! s" Z2 {0 sreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
% n; B" U0 t+ H: m The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- t' g9 V7 x0 `2 K
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, T0 j" w: H# N0 B# wimpose liquidation values.
6 m$ O* {9 E2 D! N1 n5 v In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In# W& `  x& e' M, b% Y0 d
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.; f6 z3 j! [/ m0 p, Z
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 T' q  d: A* O- j% h4 G6 Rscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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4 o6 k. v/ M# `  ^: }A look at credit markets- N+ y' W; h" ?2 w
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in  P+ N# w8 T% K4 N. y" }. x2 k# u
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.8 {, ^, Q; C( o" H
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
# a' ?1 b! h: L6 r6 k  Ythen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
- l: I+ w) }3 |: l, c5 A7 Sbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
0 Z; e: u. k4 M: t  m5 l' iaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 p' [" d' z  QCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are" p# k7 S# E' L9 S, T6 B3 b' G
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
. P# ?$ \. M9 w" m+ z( h' R Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ L+ F- T2 B' S* v9 t6 t  Ffinding financing.
7 u0 L8 F7 q9 D% d, Z Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; b3 `2 n0 T7 r& C% y( C6 [6 {were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; B7 N+ ]! B7 f4 G* {5 v2 b Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- O, ~$ Q) L$ s
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were# m% N& {# ?2 Y% G
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
1 F$ |0 C& }, @bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.1 X4 ]$ o; l& ^3 j3 ~2 B1 I# t# G0 f
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
, Y; N4 }) z6 m" Ktoday.( H' C2 {6 A1 `0 P# i9 h* a8 Z# f6 S
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 S0 n& b& `0 A; |( q( D0 Cemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
1 Z5 n: f! q% o1 E, l Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for6 L4 O) L. B/ N  y) {
the Greek default.
2 r7 q% I! b! o; Z; Y As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
* X+ ]2 @0 w; w* Z1 X# s3 l, Y5 [* Y  V1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
( P  W7 v) f  }" v2 L2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ l0 ^0 [* ?% g: J' j! O8 r3 V$ Gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
5 R+ h, Z1 N: j' p! ^  H3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% J& g  o& j) k6 T9 z" H4 pbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
) k4 _  o" r3 J* {+ B4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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/ Y! y# p8 ]6 G& A/ T: wBeyond Greece5 E) x5 T* |9 A, S! u$ G7 ]1 f6 E
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 m5 q5 T8 z( Y! y% T7 F/ u
but that was before Italy./ W. G6 j% A0 R+ z( N# \( d
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
1 L+ B  X2 w+ _1 o: ?- z It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" ]/ o9 p7 N4 m  R7 sItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
: h, w9 Y: `2 a5 o1 Q9 y We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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