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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。2 N9 V/ t# y3 m4 H# X

/ p  V$ ~7 ?! q! D6 S6 {; a9 @7 k5 F$ HMarket Commentary/ @# e1 ]5 L# ]% E
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer- ~5 h* d+ b+ b3 j' ]
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
0 Y5 ]0 p% N! r- P, b% E# a& FSignature Global Advisors, H% o) `9 {3 w9 H
  L, ^8 A3 X+ O' v1 s
$ z) e2 F; F* o5 r/ f6 [6 M
Background remarks
4 N/ L% O7 {0 j5 X8 B9 [' x Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
; E- x( x+ p0 U/ ?* M+ Z  p5 Ras much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
2 R8 o8 N3 l% C$ t7 `- [ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
3 t( i- R3 B1 n" Z% S, K. Dadjustments.
% N; x2 [3 w. r) \# H( Y7 S# z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social6 d( V6 G7 |+ w) v; Q- K* Z! w
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
0 f6 x: j  Q) M: a1 e/ d$ n  r Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are. u: h8 p$ O# D( r
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.9 `9 J* g; c7 Z( n
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these% l: b! ]* w- Z) w! E
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
' I" N9 G6 {( S! | Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s$ c' G2 b  ^8 r3 Y0 M% Y
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
7 b: t" U! y0 @9 U( b Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.  S2 s5 j& o8 N: ^0 D7 p2 }
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have9 j5 @, O& y% O% F6 r7 A1 ~
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation9 m# k0 o% L" R; ~
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long" Q; {. E# ^# g. R
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
# z. _! s- E2 @, e5 ~impose liquidation values.
) N- x9 M; _4 H0 j In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
: ~! `3 @% t: ]3 m! h/ ~+ RAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ u! |3 Z4 s% e5 k: W" e
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 m5 K7 N9 A- Z0 H! F
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! ~+ x+ _" r# G0 l" v  H! |
/ i7 e7 H. |. N& c; G, X! _* ]
A look at credit markets
6 s/ U' _0 ~- C3 [& W% ~ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 u2 ^& s/ Q7 QSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 m& p/ m, a3 i High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 a0 r8 A, |7 {; m. ^. B1 H: v
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1- o+ E* [( ~; ^( e+ j$ n+ s
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* n/ m5 R# R; Xaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade- R5 D: Y+ n+ w# x! M) \
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: k- T7 \! [# ]9 u5 I4 U
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- g  J/ K% _( ?0 d+ N7 A Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 ?' e8 a: [$ @" ~: X
finding financing.
/ _8 q# E, e3 L. x6 b& v% g Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
2 t. x; L( ~1 Z9 W1 Kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 {  P! N6 B# Y) N* z) t% s' z  N Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
: T+ f& F3 v% L9 Xis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were& t! _7 F7 A- e- C, R
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
- T( E3 |3 c. j4 s+ O# A( o# M2 zbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
% Q( m" k$ O# R9 X; [: x European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ e: o& i& M9 d( A9 P
today.
0 q$ O8 u5 Z5 y: ]6 |/ F Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 d7 |2 L1 q) X& V7 j
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 V5 s7 t$ {/ q$ {( Q- ^- o. g3 J Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 ]0 E4 |" i" K3 Z+ f. L' Mthe Greek default." T  Y& B* s# t. V4 d
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& `& |3 G' d' v/ \9 a' g( k
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
, j) i& K. p/ i2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
2 F' K  Z$ R/ K4 C7 K# Jdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ Z- k' o3 k( j4 J2 c3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing& {. N' n( ^9 A- E8 F: l
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years6 w9 e# ?9 N8 [4 S
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
! z: b; m" f* t% A( b# h* j3 e0 h
! N& f' P8 a) Q. h; q* I1 IBeyond Greece
$ G8 s( e8 \% b The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
; x! e- d: c3 R, Y1 G  O- Y  Lbut that was before Italy.2 S  I% E' D* z, w6 m4 f* C
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
/ o+ I2 u/ O+ I4 g0 ^ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the( c0 X, Q! m0 S1 i
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.+ ]5 f: ^/ N0 A0 W8 |3 d! O1 G$ ?/ a
. A* R1 z1 `9 C- H
Conclusion7 k7 Y' }9 t' F! O5 f; D
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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