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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。+ _7 t$ o/ b5 r# Q
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Market Commentary2 c" v) u: e( E! x5 @1 e
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
3 @1 {) n" i3 D4 |. f6 XJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
9 M% `8 O" ]% D6 I# |) a7 [" V9 MSignature Global Advisors( J6 G' i/ C6 o+ J4 b1 D- f, M

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9 Z: C- H$ `/ ^9 Y3 {Background remarks2 E6 z* t% t- U: q2 z8 ~  n
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
9 L  p. u" d" E- @  h& ^5 V/ Yas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
/ d3 _1 v" I: p) s Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
$ B$ }9 i: }% U! }  {) Sadjustments.
) N$ Q8 F8 k- E This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social, K9 E0 a% l  \6 `5 F
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.0 C' [# z/ {. @" c* p/ w& o/ X
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are  l& Z( g# s, M4 m" O& ^
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.' L5 ^# o7 l1 r+ N9 X" Q
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these# j2 s  y4 u8 b" i2 [
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
1 O* V+ R0 H; K9 m Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
3 B7 J7 \4 ^5 D4 u: D& L8 xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
2 s) |" v1 q# [& o- U( X. ~" P! ` Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.# l: c9 {. x1 c4 x) \8 d4 F9 O4 |  a
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have& t: V# C, h) @# g6 |. ~/ l* j* {
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
$ I* M% u. b% [6 ?5 I! P2 b! T4 J The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long! Y% B  Y$ U- T  [
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ s( W! `' H) R& O% f/ m8 o8 o6 D) l8 Yimpose liquidation values.
* K2 D2 X- X; I( E2 m& q In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In. }  r8 g6 V6 w# G/ [' D
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view./ z* y; c  n0 G4 u- H( d& K
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
0 X% \9 S$ P. C; l3 uscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
7 T! v! \7 [- i4 U) f Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 ~! Y5 ^- v. J( Y1 M1 F! QSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 |4 X' E# k3 W: b6 ~1 x7 X High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%: \; }7 L2 U; ]+ ~; @% v
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
1 l. x& C7 e6 v$ Z$ d8 K2 N+ ubillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
1 |+ H9 \, B$ yaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
9 t* y& v8 A9 _0 {) E( ^CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: I- X+ C9 a6 g' L6 n* E
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
- R" u: ]0 {$ c! y* k Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble( R2 ], a& X) g
finding financing.
" c. S* m3 I7 ] Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
4 e5 J0 p) ~3 u' s8 Cwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
8 D6 }; ~* Z" r6 @/ p Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- e  |( ^$ L' W# }- e1 K, r
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
# ?: z$ x" ~  f: \1 S, x2 Bgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
. m; b: x& d7 Q. nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 p4 [3 p% G3 N2 ?4 J2 K European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! y: \' P1 o- Utoday.6 n. e4 G4 w% E2 h% o. T# V# c
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. _+ H/ i; S0 i. c" V/ g
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda$ s4 A3 f$ z8 K* s2 A" d6 M  H0 C
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
+ k- w6 d0 K% _7 X' i7 Kthe Greek default.. g0 U5 I1 e% J) `: u6 O
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:. D3 Z% j4 j2 W
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
, _* y3 b5 t5 ?2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. N- {* E! a  `3 a* H/ Gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals./ J4 U% g5 V/ Q% D3 m
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
8 V; B% D) p# ?3 }4 O- v1 Tbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
) x5 E' }7 {2 n6 @4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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2 }0 T3 H/ m9 n3 g. y: o3 i% G$ |Beyond Greece4 {3 `& d8 ~5 o, V- C1 Q
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
0 w! }' z; A$ R4 Ebut that was before Italy.; H7 Q/ ]+ E" j: I
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.2 |1 t! h! [; b  {4 d% q) ~, @
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the4 [9 U$ s3 \& s0 T9 m; `. U
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.3 ~! E7 H7 Q% A5 Q
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Conclusion
# b" v% Q' y9 {; S/ e; e+ C- v, m We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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