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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
7 |# g. Z+ c8 D8 A9 N/ R7 o# Y% b The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
5 l' r% h0 W+ P! E* ~as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may; T1 ]' \5 C* m o
impose liquidation values.. ~( m8 h. U* o0 j& o
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
- Z% X, [9 p eAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.4 ~, F6 L6 a8 I% C
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 m) T/ x- q* \2 t8 `( {: i/ L( m
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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V9 C! T9 I- x8 jA look at credit markets3 X& b; L0 k$ X8 C) _/ ?
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 Z. S5 ?' T6 x! I: _September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
' l7 Z7 a- U# j4 i3 W* \) o High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%# ~6 O* a; K# `3 c, w- l7 x, k
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1; u. T& @/ a" C
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. l6 q. d7 V) M, [* R x2 |
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
- z, y. M. ]4 l1 V! ?, eCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are- R; g" \$ U2 X2 V- ^, N' y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 c; |* v6 `* w+ X# B' o Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
% f0 z( C0 S6 l5 G+ o' f7 n# ofinding financing.
$ |* _6 c5 Y9 @- Y' J0 M Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
: c5 i9 o9 I/ i9 Vwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
) X$ G5 z7 K: n j: q) X. L/ X Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and; `* C$ @0 O$ t
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 Q/ r8 ~, Y& f+ E) M0 d+ Ggoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 J8 P% U2 K* Lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& g8 m" t1 v. F, r, `- V5 _- ^ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( d( ^/ L& H5 e) r. U! ~7 \+ j
today.
8 x6 i& \4 d5 Z0 W, Z Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
. I8 w; q/ Y: N W* ?emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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