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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。" x3 T7 B" G, G
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Market Commentary
( d1 r$ ~. t% D6 c, i- t- hEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
) t# c0 d) ~2 w+ kJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 `  R2 g( z' E& Q# E, |5 aSignature Global Advisors
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7 v! X5 ]8 F+ c+ l, c* IBackground remarks/ q: R* ~: S  H! z2 @3 E
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are, o, s/ U6 B& S; e* D
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.( i" A/ c( R& u
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
! z4 C0 ]0 I. ~/ H& _* q5 e1 A  [adjustments.
' c* N& \. ^% B; [, v; `! d5 j3 X# v/ v This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social* E5 ?% S8 j2 T- E7 U- P. N$ f- z
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.+ L6 e+ X  h4 [/ ]( H
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are. a" @7 v' }' D1 g( h3 {
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
3 S+ R0 D% b$ h* m We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
6 b. Z% J- }/ U- s) x0 O  A, ladjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.7 X2 J- i2 H' F6 N9 a
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" q) p( l. b! p; T! _
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
' Y8 C0 }5 m3 D' k/ u2 ^1 X Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.; G* p& r3 X6 U% s
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
4 y: D' a4 M! b  G7 K% J% [! e( Wreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
  ?5 l6 E. P* y' {- U5 | The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
( D( L4 h: ?6 b7 E3 d& [) qas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may% {: }" D- g" `
impose liquidation values.9 g  r, H# @3 s1 }* \5 W( e
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) o6 a$ n7 @- O4 oAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 q- f6 t( a5 }2 j$ X5 ~& P! O The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! K6 A8 ], x& }5 C; _; S* a
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets9 [& Y' {0 O! O
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in2 }/ D5 v7 l6 B# r4 \* M. A7 Y$ q
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.  k! {8 h  ?' P+ Y9 M# H6 z0 ~1 `
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%7 _+ I4 B  ^2 ]/ i) V; M# @/ s
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1  q1 t! j) D8 n7 |
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
6 p5 R$ s7 L: F7 D+ i# u5 f- haccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade, _6 \. i" P8 K; m) D
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
& h4 j+ @0 U; V' H8 Mpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
3 s+ h) ]0 q* X: V Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ Q5 [" h# f8 Vfinding financing.  \( q0 \2 V$ n& O. m4 ]: F
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they7 w6 {+ p* d, g# H9 \) w
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% I0 u" }) B: h( r! j6 c Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ k7 C6 s7 I, k9 |is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
' }( J/ `5 X+ _# P- cgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
' M4 @$ F( F" y. J6 d  M( w" Q! jbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& Y, g0 K- E7 w1 _ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
0 Z  I, K4 A) J- ~$ V( X% ntoday.
' @9 m. s& h% L- j) ]* R Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in/ _$ Y* F, m& T4 K8 p7 d0 q* ]
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda5 M; G! Y; E+ W% G+ ^
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ P6 W. S: p0 |1 n# @  k# j$ Q: mthe Greek default.' h7 I% F* M, F; R- U, k
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
. x8 I% Y0 h5 \" Q7 D1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
; I1 O) B( e5 r& |( B9 w2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' k( M! S0 }2 K" K# W. ~
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
7 B$ s; V5 t; i) L7 x9 S! x3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
4 m7 O$ U8 P" mbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years! Q/ U2 l$ Z/ l
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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+ D& K7 G* ?: XBeyond Greece
/ ~" `3 z5 \; r The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
8 I- b0 l! U# k6 j# ibut that was before Italy.0 T* ~6 v' W) V
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.% C, v2 x- d" O) S! E3 u9 `7 H
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# f& d. o/ ?* C: oItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 I: b* l2 B+ H. K/ b, v' E9 }
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Conclusion2 k: l* `4 m9 f$ {2 T
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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