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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
7 {5 h0 [8 S4 a% V/ ]- [. D/ J
2 C; h* L! {0 f: B$ ?& VMarket Commentary
- i/ l, ]) k! q( ^Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
4 @8 W  ]. Y" p7 O- i2 WJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager0 h( w+ V  p$ K4 y8 A! Z9 T  }* u
Signature Global Advisors0 u% c. Z% ]* y/ i+ M

! u, |9 P! w$ Y
. n* n7 N6 R; q9 W$ BBackground remarks; s5 H  J+ u6 J5 r
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
4 d% w$ p$ L: D! ~6 Yas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) h7 Q2 h8 o; h( [# B Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
# _' K& k" t/ |0 X# ]1 i& Padjustments.
, Z5 u3 w9 l8 x) w This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social8 h8 _* A/ Y* X. k0 q
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.: U# C) h* D! u8 `& S8 }
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 d, C7 P+ q7 [3 j* f4 |lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
! }. M3 |9 Y; z5 s We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these7 I) [# C# T  _$ T' U* n" q
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.7 z/ M. l% d2 E* J
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
( S) V5 |7 x0 E4 ?, L' hquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.' _: U$ L& v) g0 g  l# K0 d
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
% C7 I* V2 H5 b7 e2 G Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
7 h$ |0 X9 ^# ?) M" }' i6 c( Mreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
: h# T8 L! m  ]+ h5 A! p The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
) D* F, W0 z& {( M+ G. {as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* r  J4 W7 d+ }0 Uimpose liquidation values.) b( d' }; N* |0 U0 j6 ?- U
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In: E% X# b' |- N$ L& U
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
9 Q$ C, E7 `3 Y* I9 H! g The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension( q. F9 U$ X% f5 M6 I* j' e
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! }7 v8 v/ C7 L5 t: e

# S- l) r1 K, h0 O" DA look at credit markets2 i* T3 F3 G" T* e. D% e
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in# X# ~+ o2 ~$ p2 G6 {
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.; B3 n; E  D6 E6 X, R: i, g
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
; ?" ?+ m+ X8 u" c& v9 t7 h6 ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $17 e2 k8 E  j7 O7 c
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: S0 i2 ?  z0 a5 P2 a
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
0 [- }# m- ^8 n# M0 B& D7 ~CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
4 B, V: r4 L) J+ qpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
  g. k8 h& I0 b Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble1 v' S. h% I7 K, I+ o; k
finding financing.
5 l; W# a5 C3 p1 }! x; G. u Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
. U0 r7 D2 j  o8 t2 Ewere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
7 [, o: C4 B1 r5 C  U Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
- K, \  f+ I" `5 g1 ^' S6 Ris now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ u, n' R  [0 i3 \
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for# n- V! `% }) F1 N
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 U0 ~- O4 Q6 N8 U! F
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain9 S- k) A; L6 j/ P& ]9 k
today.: z5 A0 x. r3 g3 y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
% o6 F8 c% x8 ?2 a! ^/ D. Uemerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
  I& z& j8 @4 L/ y) U0 I Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
2 C/ {) V3 j( t) Dthe Greek default.
" ?9 u3 ?" G" r# } As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
* x( L7 T! a5 ~1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' u' G" l9 M/ j1 T* R8 v& k2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
6 [6 T8 q& h8 \) ?  adebt stabilization, needs government approvals.2 ^" E: @9 m- M4 N  W1 J! V
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
4 w% N' A) M. `& w" h. _banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years( w" h% m) G8 n, y7 ~0 z% z
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) L% b3 x! P7 w0 I& b1 |' a

8 O" H3 G5 ~+ K! X& ^Beyond Greece
7 t, X, P. A5 U; [% ~5 Q  }" A: N" A The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),7 G  U8 C' f+ i9 F
but that was before Italy.6 g6 W5 a$ _4 \" N+ B
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.+ Z& t: i2 e1 [3 t
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the" d" A& g: W0 M( w4 c0 q& R
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
! q/ _( X) Y4 `$ R9 v
  n  c- M% Y" l9 jConclusion
& T+ z1 M) a  O  O2 Z We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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