市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。

% {" q7 `& ?' h( L: BMarket Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
9 T2 N& W2 V6 O" Q$ c8 c$ DJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
Signature Global Advisors

. V! f$ K# [5 e8 D  D/ A0 N
5 ~; I" S! S; e/ tBackground remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
adjustments.
  V6 d$ w( r! q0 y) J+ _/ e3 h/ L This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
' [4 `% k* g1 o3 N* }/ |6 F" mlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
7 S6 C, I& `$ d4 X1 `; ~# Q$ m: ` We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
* A8 ^7 p: v. D3 R# D% I9 z) ]adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
  _" \- f  r0 w; q$ c1 O Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
- Z+ J9 {" J( }  W The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
, i" b& r3 E, B6 G) Y) b) T+ Nimpose liquidation values.
  J+ U: v( a) z) r In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% D; y! l7 J0 w4 CAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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8 n  M1 D  U  B9 a1 MA look at credit markets
4 A' t: g" ]- o. B Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
, l( s# O2 e; b0 T9 I% P& pSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
* k, L1 Q8 }9 G1 P0 c High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
, ^; P' D9 }1 xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% ?+ Q4 s1 k* i% o8 ^access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
$ M8 a' Y+ G) N& rCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
$ D6 `1 H% u; V9 h* O  @3 z: T4 T Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
+ W" m2 a: B- v$ ~5 Z. e& g Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( o: {8 v$ k1 ^. T) y% Sbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) Z2 V4 d+ \1 K European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
5 A4 C$ ?0 K- f% l+ ?* m3 b Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ Y: ]/ p. x. K1 o  Hthe Greek default.
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
. U7 y* T0 j8 P1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
6 C- n' T  O( [, `  ?% i- y, \# U2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
" O7 A0 B  L3 t, m/ fdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
- p6 I: K: R5 H! ?- u9 n# A0 ]3 ubanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.

Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. X1 M) I8 P. q) C" L* fbut that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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