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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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: k/ Z6 ~2 t; KMarket Commentary+ O( y6 S& V0 [5 ^& m
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
. d/ y4 h5 k# ]: i. P2 l; _+ N" aJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager! G, q2 s; _  W( W! {
Signature Global Advisors
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6 [9 p0 N9 `4 i/ X' u7 z* a# j# sBackground remarks
( @2 F& s0 U+ [; Z# @& w Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are. ]" V' a# g# I4 S& l
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.5 ^7 o% d( ]" L* I; C
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, D' \; o' h' wadjustments.
* _, T# R7 P; T. X; x" O, @ This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social) E4 B2 y& a5 G( C/ v
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.5 t+ G4 g) S+ Q2 r( @& ]
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are6 m7 U- N! o- n9 T3 o% y. c
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.6 U! L, s9 }6 K
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
/ B6 R5 @0 s# [% @/ P7 ?5 I; kadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
/ X& ~( S; _! n: S7 ]$ F3 T Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
" I' T$ Y2 O- a( ^7 a: `9 g# xquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
" {; _% k9 |1 Y( _ Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.1 z$ U- ^: e) ^
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have/ q/ V8 L% @% w! r
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation9 A: Q' J0 g# C% B" ?% B! }3 D, Z; u
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long+ w! k" o! _& e& P+ k2 C* ?3 G& Y1 T
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may+ Z4 R& [# m. t& p$ t7 y
impose liquidation values.
; D1 {8 T( o9 ?1 A% C5 B2 Y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In8 N# u$ q' S: U# e  O, l
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 d8 {9 b5 Z5 }2 g5 l The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension8 k4 X/ g& e1 P9 n5 K" O3 ~
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.8 i; W$ }9 ]; c' j- n# V0 {

% [  y+ U9 g: ?/ i, t, m6 @A look at credit markets! ^  v! v: D$ E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- `2 b: a( Q5 l% PSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& i) s/ O( A, h1 i* M4 a! @
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 K. w+ F8 }# ^2 _$ s8 u& h. Xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* M! a& R- X( e2 j; `3 r; j. \' W
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
& |- T0 ^- Y* w* E- J$ p1 _7 Haccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
& G6 A6 P: D& }( TCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are5 R8 _' z+ l2 B4 j
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
' W% t7 H! @6 C& l# m  ` Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble0 {6 G/ h# l5 t6 g  L: N! `" R
finding financing.
8 R9 i/ {4 s' H4 P" }% \- z Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
5 p7 h. O, y! l' S2 F( g" q7 Owere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
( r5 [2 s2 ]5 ~8 {: o Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 `( K2 e8 J+ b2 J+ ?0 y) `5 Q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ g. L$ v1 u( v  ~5 R( z9 C
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! {4 v) B, j$ s" }
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
& o5 `+ \2 h  T7 J; G European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain: ?  c7 w6 A# z6 C) k0 B4 E
today.! S! i$ M! U3 e5 Z! r5 w. V: {
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
6 }3 U- @4 W2 uemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) V) i) w  U1 N* g
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
  {! D6 a# B0 J" E. p  V% tthe Greek default.
4 b6 S9 W8 d- X8 l% H As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:0 |% C: {) H6 O3 [. G! ^/ T
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
" h; ?: c! C- w5 ]+ y3 \- w  @2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign) E! V  A/ v5 o5 ^% f! g' i" r
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
8 ^2 L$ z- `2 g/ W3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% k% j! I5 P% n0 L2 T* jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
: ?0 k/ c$ d3 ~5 s4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.( K, x( t+ s; P2 q
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Beyond Greece
$ l; C; N. F8 H2 a The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
$ z" i! R& y  v) k: l3 bbut that was before Italy.
! V2 W1 Q  ]7 {; \3 F. z' s! | It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
/ v7 x0 h8 Y/ k3 O9 T It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; u. G6 i4 X* E& K
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.% j7 [& E: H- S6 p7 o/ @+ G
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Conclusion
7 _4 X( D2 _3 ?2 [8 G We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
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发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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