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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。+ A) `' S0 A+ x7 N, \! @4 x

) c" X; T% [+ fMarket Commentary
. a7 E) p" w! PEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer! P+ j  f! E) }  U4 D
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager0 k8 U. j6 Q" g3 i& S6 K
Signature Global Advisors
5 T3 C. {! w5 s; `" h; Z4 v# p. }+ v

; X  ~7 T( N' a9 E& N# U8 U8 wBackground remarks
  q( f* |+ ]# {- X; y5 \ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are( H: j; X! V' [8 g
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
9 {1 ], d; F9 N) U7 M Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
5 K( G3 e# R' padjustments.4 ~1 l9 v. w' U$ A" v- @
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
  ]5 R0 J  d0 H9 `: Gsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.7 J! E; R3 o7 |7 N8 V
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are2 B8 I" J+ S6 h9 Q' u3 j6 R
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.; \* c+ p# n% l1 o$ U
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these5 G+ H. \2 L2 D: d6 ^3 H: R/ g4 R0 {
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: R: N# Y7 a) \. q; Q/ f Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
7 O4 K. k3 S# m# t4 S. ]4 Hquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.7 N& e$ K8 C* k2 I% m' y+ V
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.# a* e. s1 h3 F" p% G0 J3 x: w0 A
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have6 M. x6 D' [( X5 R" J/ [1 k
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ j# W5 T$ `" P) K$ o, S$ L The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
# @2 ^: Q- e! W; X+ V; k7 H4 Z' Kas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 [% G9 R6 t& J
impose liquidation values.; Y$ r" a8 Q% I" }
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' `# `- u1 E2 h8 q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.$ `5 ~/ H9 N  O& a
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
- u' H# E8 i% [$ ^% @: A/ O4 C+ {scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.- V. A3 ^8 I" `8 P9 Z+ o) @
- f! T9 k+ K5 h; q" e, ?1 a
A look at credit markets6 e  b- O8 a. `& r) ~5 \' o
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
: T* Q9 m% a# X) v: kSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.2 |3 K) m6 l  p" j, M. N% j
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! v# P* x& R2 f. G/ X' n- [7 i! f
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& G  ^2 {3 z2 N. `/ J" n- I( s4 Cbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. q/ @, N# A; A7 {
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
" X% G* r4 N9 b, OCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
, W6 @' T) g$ x; p" w! d: W: R1 |5 D" jpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 J8 s. c2 |3 Z" `& z# Z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ ~$ X* Z9 l; S  J5 r9 w; S% `( M; xfinding financing.! G/ \% ]' d3 Y' d# ~4 g
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
: n- z. K2 m  b4 m# |were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  D/ Z: u1 `% E Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! E3 p8 k/ c8 {2 D2 v+ ris now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were* i; n( J. I* A! L+ }0 Q
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
" w! s- j  O& `0 h" |# V2 vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.0 _  `- c& Y+ H" u/ o% y6 [: X
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
; V8 v2 k" |& i" C' ^today.# w7 A$ o9 O/ N/ H3 S; N( i
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in4 O! E8 ]; W4 Q5 c
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda( K# Z0 |# \# i6 f) S' a: Z' Z8 L
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for' t6 S% f3 u2 x; m3 _' m* L  c5 O5 t
the Greek default.
% ^$ K2 Q# |& i* g9 {+ H4 o* _ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
. Q6 Z  ]& @  Q" v$ I1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
* T# M( @8 p  W+ N& \2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign3 L- E: j! h" I, t% W5 H
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.( x+ o, i* @3 O9 H4 S
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
5 ]1 W  t2 q) v  j* {! e. Pbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years' T- T3 \; Y9 d4 N
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.$ F5 O& v5 j  q+ b3 G$ c

& E* G' o  E6 L8 T, n/ n5 yBeyond Greece$ X% a( n2 y1 h- z4 V
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
3 x- Z8 S( F) K& h! U3 ]) Q8 wbut that was before Italy.8 y& r& d3 N% V  I& w
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
9 `9 \0 ?; D3 J' E4 w It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the& x3 p% E5 [6 R- o$ e% E
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.+ a! X5 S6 [' _0 g- S9 x% {# W

% J$ s) ~3 g9 j* a+ {9 D0 l. xConclusion! c. |' @+ M$ l9 J1 H& B8 V  S
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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