埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3051|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。, D8 v) e4 M  o: V. y8 Y& c
- m; v" I! @4 a
Market Commentary
9 Z, E/ n( {' U. a0 JEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
8 Q3 u) W0 }/ c# m  EJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager$ h& j5 o, E9 Z% E$ J
Signature Global Advisors& Z) ]- T% g, o9 D+ i
& g+ P- \4 ?2 T8 _( j$ W8 d  B

- m0 [1 y+ ]( ?3 ?Background remarks
8 h/ S$ T4 I+ I Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 o, D( S  b4 U: s- [0 F/ D" D$ uas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
0 I1 _8 q/ C; a: G& G& } Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal2 P- G' v: x. R+ n$ _% Y
adjustments.
/ F9 R' E) z6 Y1 ]- ~- O7 I This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
& @0 }. m# b$ |, t0 l2 {4 `+ \+ psafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.8 l+ S& ]# c7 \+ T
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
, E2 D- h; T2 _  W# ]- flessons to be learned from the frontrunners.0 Q* x, j, p+ a8 k6 b: S9 t$ R
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these+ h8 \* l# M4 [: s
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: }# U9 j  A3 w/ V4 P! m  E/ t4 L8 f Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
1 j) h5 k8 w" d5 ?" cquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* U& H9 s4 }* Z7 h Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.6 R& H8 H* ]$ S  k
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! z6 C6 j( U" }+ P7 n3 [) ~reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation' X$ Z/ w" e+ [' ]* e0 w& w
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long: a2 n% U, d- z/ ~& r4 h
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& ?6 \# S  F3 |/ a- h( `" i: {
impose liquidation values.
5 h; @( ?: j; H/ I3 S In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! g4 F5 J6 z: _9 T# [August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, q5 H. w5 }  X. W; I+ N1 k7 T6 U0 s The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
0 |& \" l: h. G# O$ iscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
! P7 T3 U' Z) H2 o8 L! f  a0 e7 b
/ Z8 L3 A) L( t& k+ GA look at credit markets
+ a3 c" V& d( m2 |3 O/ | Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
% n- v; X4 y/ \8 C% cSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.& C& Y) e9 a7 `5 m1 q  _" ?/ A
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
0 T6 O6 ]/ e; D* v# W( Sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" {2 I  j" x! C: }' N. r
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, T" U4 q2 d) }4 N/ a; D) Z) l
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
8 t3 ~  X1 g2 m! ?9 uCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
$ O4 q) L; z  m  X- [positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
/ a8 K6 }( q; w1 g* N: O* l Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ u% ^7 }/ o5 m! [) D5 t/ Ofinding financing.( i5 v# J2 \; q4 n: X
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they9 u, ^; {/ b" s
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
! V! X# [: ?& }( |5 D, |+ H Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and4 N( W- s3 f2 @; F
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- t; r" m" r6 g
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for! L& a1 E0 b& r( H& e  Y4 ^
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
1 U% U- w1 m  W( v9 X! d European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, x2 J7 r) r' @5 h" D
today.3 j" @- D3 F& ?7 J9 W! E' T
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 Z" d5 ?$ T, P+ nemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda2 e, Z1 S+ o3 {4 O# J
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
8 }4 i0 y7 C" N2 c" K1 }the Greek default.- Q5 k2 V8 A0 X6 d( N7 E& z
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:- x2 M  G7 V4 j3 G
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default2 U) R# ?7 ~0 E) C' ^4 b# h
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
" a# B8 Z4 J, j6 Y5 p, \9 L6 Sdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
& H) Q5 l  o1 Q1 B  W, I2 }3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing8 e" y3 N( y$ ^4 ^6 V
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
; f. F( X& U6 k" l( y; o4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.; f1 Q& U9 d! d& y6 a- U7 R
4 C( T8 S) B# F; o8 [) b) f
Beyond Greece) F+ m; c6 y1 H- u! G, o) k& P  j
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
0 G8 C5 @, p3 n9 Rbut that was before Italy.4 q: h- b( n. b0 v0 K5 S: P% v- Y
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
4 b. b. ^9 `5 s' n It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the5 G! ~# ^* f' H7 i9 f
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
: q9 g: v- M/ U2 G- ~; g! |& Y' W' A# `8 F: Y6 A; m; T
Conclusion
; x+ U8 N! p7 [$ |! _ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-5-2 06:32 , Processed in 0.150405 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表