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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary% W: l+ i- B* m/ g
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer* M' `: k% ^, R4 n4 \
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
, o: D! ?. v5 ]4 F* U/ P0 RSignature Global Advisors% A5 H* R) M$ Z
$ v! [  k* y7 }0 h! O1 s

3 B/ m# M. m0 G9 P  `# a  e0 XBackground remarks
$ d8 W7 ]" @8 j' C& x# I Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are; N: V1 C" K" z* ~# H: `, H
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) R" g3 [! i9 ^, z3 J Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
6 u7 l0 s4 Y. B- Z4 w- z1 gadjustments.
8 d+ w/ U0 K$ k, n$ n3 v- z This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social' Q/ u; S9 R/ f+ G! j# R
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
: g' e* a2 `. A8 A9 [! f- i1 ]" @ Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are) Y- O$ l: w( r
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.- @2 W* X* c; u" p
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these* `+ L$ E9 _( y
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.9 W6 B' a& _1 L: ~- G6 f+ j
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s! W* E* ~+ d% u. T5 ]
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.! Z4 W# m+ O$ V( v+ S0 }
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.. y1 D: e9 ]7 Q' D1 y
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
$ \! v- ]* Z2 n8 V; ereduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
0 x' J* B8 U! U- E( F, B The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
$ N) \( C1 r0 v: K, W! B, D; was funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" T3 X: J- m" K+ a# p0 E" a
impose liquidation values.- w5 L% A/ a' ^( {+ Z
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! j* s2 b; @9 P1 A9 o
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' {7 [: U' \0 |8 a. R# E' \
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension0 Q; D, K2 E! C+ w# C% V
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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- Z) B0 L" [) k! j9 tA look at credit markets
# e9 H$ ~7 A  {+ b0 G Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
3 M: e% i8 r( S1 mSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
# ]1 O5 l4 _9 D, k$ D( ` High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%# o$ Z5 w6 a$ S# Q
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. s/ p; O4 e, ~$ e: ?- q: `* ~billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have9 E) |! i7 f. G! b
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade. Q+ ~  [$ L; d
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
7 }) n# @; P6 n+ [. v; upositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 C& ^# L2 F' e+ E; u5 G1 D5 Q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
/ O* M$ w5 F2 _: tfinding financing.$ Z/ H* T. \4 |) J" `! n' D) U
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they' h' e% \9 w/ E  H0 L8 b4 Q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: b  c% Y3 {6 F+ f4 b7 g
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 N! y1 }5 J9 t
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were! L* ]3 ~( N. y0 [) \  [. v( j
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
* x+ w' v$ M8 F5 ~" @- c6 v3 ^& a: Cbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.5 e. x; O- X9 d6 G0 S$ d6 D8 H
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
& c% |& c8 L0 N- r' E& _today." t  X( I; g% t6 d% |
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in, N. y6 g" y8 H# ^. w
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda! T  k: }& }9 P; C, ]; h: P
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for' Q, _& ?, K0 G0 e
the Greek default.
3 b" Q/ Z$ }7 `- G! \( ~ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:, N9 W- z( o* T! V- P! T1 J6 x
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default1 y+ Y: Z5 F5 W; S1 g% E! A. Q) ~
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. x2 H4 w  t. U1 Y1 S* bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
( H; |+ E# o0 Y7 |7 D3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
% M0 m4 N9 t0 o3 n, [banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years& q) H4 x# }" i, [$ Q# W; _
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
% z0 K" o% }: Z; W9 e+ w" R  O: K/ [/ H- E+ l, J1 l
Beyond Greece
+ Y/ ^  B( A( m9 p: m6 \! X1 t- b The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),1 p; B6 F/ D2 A8 @' g3 @- M9 g
but that was before Italy.! M: o% y* Q4 h5 `5 \- @, D  M+ r
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
, r# ~# S0 r+ P+ E It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the' a" Q# T$ g0 w0 _# N9 w
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion* O  x2 S( g( B9 _( v
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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