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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation: z- T) B9 E$ l$ T' H2 U) R1 i/ v; i1 E
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% ]" Y8 ^8 g' \- o; X( y/ O
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
8 [. R% z9 q5 o, aimpose liquidation values.
2 q& z+ Q7 H9 Z% D In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% c7 C! b, |% h/ a8 t, S: `2 XAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
& x8 B0 S: _) \0 }9 N' b The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; l/ T' k; s" ~: t8 v
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
( \6 _1 l. ^& s) F: ^* f" F Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
3 f+ q3 z' A: y7 y7 F9 uSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven./ ]9 |, c( [8 L0 q' |
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%/ w9 u; Z c; ^$ S1 B Y, [$ R
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
U* u8 K- `( w+ e1 O1 qbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) w& |9 ^4 ?% z- H0 C+ Z% ~0 r+ P
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 V' R! t& ]# I
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are1 J* m6 s1 [1 q: O# [, y
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
, E% r a" z: }- Q/ }1 R* u5 x Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
3 |: r! x( V* p4 ~+ T* bfinding financing.
6 ~6 D8 I$ Y7 Q. T Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
- ~4 e- V. x( n! bwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 u9 N$ w# B' |
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
, C: G: Y' V1 d+ A1 nis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were0 Z: i& n, l' r' a
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
9 g3 y; W7 ^' J& D* Rbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
! T) Y- @% d% v' }4 r4 B European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( r/ K I! V0 G; S+ E1 s/ B
today.
; ?- ]2 W' N. z8 z" \5 u3 h s! x Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: K. Q* i& `# X
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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