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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。+ ~3 R6 Z* a; J1 D9 Q+ |0 p( a
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Market Commentary% D& k6 e9 d0 @
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
* ^8 c' d6 B$ B% v  _; |4 tJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager8 N& G/ [/ \' |: L
Signature Global Advisors
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9 b( W: O( Z8 u4 \2 q- M
Background remarks* ?- n( a) f- h6 J: D, l. t6 q
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
' A, Z& _  A$ x9 P, S- @as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
& X! x% W. x& V4 a" o( R Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal: Q2 M% }  E) B
adjustments.; L" d4 ~4 W" d$ Q# R
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social  W- H- w4 [: m5 R5 T2 {1 w" t
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
- _1 q; z$ e  `$ w Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
6 y1 P" S9 X5 f2 {lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
2 J! Z, Q, R$ X2 O We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" \- s! ?# H, R8 c5 `" I8 \: radjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.: N2 K  u  C' B- x6 H
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s+ {: b# ^( @# h+ ?  f2 ]! {
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
: b  L& f0 b) q! B3 R Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.% ~: P( o# ?" @1 [2 v- y* G
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 ^7 V6 Z, O  Q" Preduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation0 j0 R" L$ ?0 h& W+ T: D: |8 f
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long1 ^$ y) o: E7 \: I1 n7 ^# W& r
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
7 N" W: ~6 ?2 e6 }0 nimpose liquidation values.
: W/ Z- f' C( M0 S3 E/ l In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In0 c- |. w, b# c' C6 f$ h
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
2 `6 ?0 b/ N) d5 M) y& \' V. t The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension5 b; X5 ^+ T" Y" {: P/ z, Q# D
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.# v) Z* u9 G( O$ z1 t6 z

4 n3 S9 s0 Z  N0 x# U. GA look at credit markets
) t& J/ T- t$ d4 G; M- x" h Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
( t# n; r8 q1 V! F2 kSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 }9 h# ], g5 F9 `7 U$ y/ | High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 e( |8 K6 W' z8 d: ?' N9 Q- sthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1/ T) r. A# Z4 Z+ z6 {
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have1 Y7 p! A" p% J0 w
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade! i* [* G7 @) Y* Y# F
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
: T  w0 G/ W7 N& @$ \3 J/ ^5 Bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
/ O3 |( c  S" D/ D4 }' W Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! E2 S9 b3 c# q3 o6 M7 X2 V' Rfinding financing.
) B4 l* _$ B1 x) x- Q* I2 A7 G1 x( b# C Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they$ ]; t/ G$ j$ h, Q5 o2 X, Q5 T
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.5 i- z; j* v! b- R3 F' \7 W2 D
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and' h8 R: o! z8 g. u4 r4 C
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
: i8 b5 u' f) p+ R/ U' H1 s, Egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
# S# U9 s6 S/ L8 T( }, Nbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' w/ B$ z/ O+ D+ V! e( ?
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. b3 t$ c* O7 W3 k
today.
) I7 i! J5 p! U# | Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
( h$ H9 G3 W+ r. demerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda: P3 K6 [* m6 Z* z. N3 [! {/ X
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, p5 X! |% K7 F9 \, k/ }, Uthe Greek default.4 c: U. e: M/ n/ g
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:$ C$ f6 [; S0 b' Y' S' i
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default( T+ |! l& o. V0 D
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
8 t) f  |/ ~' i2 y  Odebt stabilization, needs government approvals., G& y* O, A% q) _) \; x; B9 o$ t: N
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing  X3 N, S9 d1 s
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years, V7 ^  Z5 Z& H' k
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.! O& X7 Q0 F/ A4 |2 ]6 w

! R1 o( s7 Q0 v0 ?Beyond Greece
, d" _: p5 L- ^* j: h3 o The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),/ N9 d0 X; e# l- l' I
but that was before Italy., v! N3 ~! G3 L$ M2 Q
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ G6 d* x* c$ y" Z It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
/ w6 O/ ~* c: S8 LItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion: a; z' M/ ^" f4 D7 ]
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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