埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2691|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
4 X. ?; q- P2 [7 ?4 K. k
: p, J* J7 l& U( Z3 I6 O  [! |Market Commentary
* A8 ^( Y( h" Z% v( MEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
  i* P9 d* _! @; q  `James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
7 |4 W! Y9 e8 LSignature Global Advisors' M, q1 ]: r% `8 P3 ?* C

1 L  d1 d. Y* k- K! m* S5 Q- j* t
* D: E# x' B/ FBackground remarks
4 N# H- t6 B: A) p Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& V& U# ?2 k1 d7 ^- vas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
& Y, U, ^6 h6 @7 y: ~7 m# [2 ? Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal+ k. H  \1 p* O5 V9 v1 U
adjustments.- M6 k8 L# k/ Y' M
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social9 M* i" W! j0 {& n: |9 `% g
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.  D' _6 x* C6 V; c' |& Q
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
: d1 ?: a, t; T4 V- mlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
# j5 a& ]1 s9 r  `5 i1 F' l4 o We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. @; p( p/ j1 Y5 j1 A% N7 }" madjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage., k- C' P( X3 C
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s$ }+ G* l( c9 O" K  q
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.8 @8 @. Z, k. w2 X4 V# O, {+ N
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.. a! }! e; l& F
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
5 e( T1 @# w3 p! G% U: Z2 Breduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
9 e; v) d3 R' ^2 J6 p0 I/ t0 |+ ? The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
2 G, o5 a( @. u) Cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
  \* H; c* v* S; _2 gimpose liquidation values.  _. a7 m3 @- o2 i
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
4 J9 E  O3 a0 e" \2 e0 h+ E$ uAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ s/ l! v8 C6 G& [5 L9 {6 e The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension! c. S; h2 F& ~& a
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 {: H' o) n/ L8 _: w. g

  l2 y: K! a! SA look at credit markets( h; r' H# `2 ]! W5 V3 o5 v% x
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
% T, b/ ?5 \$ P4 tSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 ]" t& f+ S  x: x' a High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
% ]5 M, B: v# jthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
& @* q, h7 X; U  Pbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have' t5 [" p  `: n2 g. O% F$ ?
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade; x+ v* \! e! C, m& m
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are1 p: W  j4 ^5 ~3 o
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield." @3 e) a% G. m0 b( P
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble* I4 N1 E  s; e- G/ I1 p
finding financing.2 k% `4 q# ]' r7 x2 M6 I
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they* d6 {7 L5 `0 x- _
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ L- M7 R6 K( T
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and7 S, k" z7 S* e8 o* s+ w
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
3 G! V+ {) i! |8 Ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ t5 j# w8 Z: _, G: @bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) {! ~; p& M: G- @ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
: O3 L% f* L+ j' P/ k1 _! v0 e# etoday.9 l* V; p: G: e" @' G6 O
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in+ j* `  m4 K: T) z* T
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
- i$ V# S6 @. V7 Z5 W Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
, _9 v9 g5 T# G0 z4 T8 Dthe Greek default.
# @7 o$ S* f" }5 l As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
/ h5 o  z- D: Q: I1 P/ D0 R1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ r7 P1 T; u8 i" t2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
& `: e) C7 f" x2 [3 j- F. adebt stabilization, needs government approvals.$ a0 H3 {* b( b1 U# E' g' X6 W
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing7 M. s- W9 r" p7 P6 [' T
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
7 h, p3 T2 @  _4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.' x$ a  T4 s5 O

) r0 B5 l" y0 Q  O- L1 UBeyond Greece% u! F) H5 c7 Q8 |
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
9 ?" }+ x% @5 q. l1 S3 vbut that was before Italy.
5 k9 J4 e8 }) W It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
+ G- e- d* r. N% }* D7 u+ h% w It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the( Y: w4 r0 L; ]! h; l0 \: g
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.5 w! V( s0 o+ O0 M/ Z0 @
( P% l' i9 a/ v+ H, i
Conclusion
8 _: k5 }  X, N! S* t' c0 A We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-3-4 18:49 , Processed in 0.093563 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表