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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary# g3 z6 q' e9 j& u5 D7 c
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer* ]# N( v% L. J- J- `) l
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
% D, h& ^4 D- |6 ASignature Global Advisors
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Background remarks; O0 C$ M, ~; Z! [
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
+ M; j- h9 H+ o. Nas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
7 S6 Z7 `6 D1 k2 t. B Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
4 q5 ^- a2 v" B* p% S- V# ]; f2 v0 Jadjustments.( s2 m2 i) u2 |; k% {* {. M9 v1 O
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social" |1 _* r0 p% P: _$ o
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
) R6 C" b8 A  w$ h6 _( W Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are$ a9 I2 p  }4 t- M9 G" l* z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners." v# V: M& N( ], g# v1 z
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these& @! t  y+ X2 }
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.6 m- e& v1 ?! g8 a5 n
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
8 ?+ i! Z, b0 o. D7 Rquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. {9 S0 l: t, |3 }9 ~3 U5 K* v5 L
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
' H3 W4 O, B$ W2 }+ M2 c7 D Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
* X" |  ?9 j( [! i( M" oreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
6 e/ F1 C9 G. S$ }6 R The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long( W" ]7 b9 B1 O$ K$ [7 C, k
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 |" [* ^, G4 u4 T
impose liquidation values.) \) Q' q% g% x, Q; V
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In+ ^% i, F& H$ M! A. U8 R( |
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.* L6 D2 e, r; e  n! o# O4 r* K$ q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) F$ O) V" Y1 B* P
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 \2 l' P: F& _. ^. _6 W
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A look at credit markets
  n6 ?8 l' w7 j: F* `) { Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
- d: A- {, d# T& k* Y' h7 fSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.: X0 p+ n/ w$ v
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
- K; }" p' H9 Q1 g5 U/ Vthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
, t: @- u: M4 o9 }1 I+ A6 n8 ^billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have6 ?! H6 }$ u; |. h
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
' P2 _& K3 c- ]* ACCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are; C( z+ L3 n0 T  B6 a
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
2 B2 R. z( h, I! R" }4 ` Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble4 b1 o6 D( {# ^: w6 J' k
finding financing.5 q! x8 ^+ j4 Y) J" d- Z4 F% j) }
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
* n! \* M2 o. Z. Kwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
, B" D  ^: E: @ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
2 b" w+ p# c" iis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& E4 P; f6 j' M8 Q9 E! u" Q) Egoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
* l& b$ W- T) w6 z6 Q8 r, Sbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 U6 w# m, W% u: U: O- T! y
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain  D% ^3 A9 d9 P( |9 f
today.
0 \5 t4 \, z3 A: M% y Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in/ g# [8 E# o$ n
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
  |% p/ C+ w9 q7 b) ?5 t Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
2 V' c7 c% K# a7 r' @+ n* G5 Sthe Greek default.7 V0 G. L0 E# Y2 `) n/ t0 ^
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:9 ~. d5 A. }. d/ Y
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default- N3 ?0 y7 A; N" d
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign5 G( c( R+ x! l/ G  b% W  d
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.% M3 |9 G. l4 F) P
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing# t! w" v) M" n' y) Y- M& y3 b; Z* H
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
2 U) q6 m$ X- y4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece" ]+ q8 T$ ^/ ]" k4 X9 b- e3 M
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
. y" V* \( a  Z# ebut that was before Italy.
& P% q; O$ r3 Z0 I( K) _' V7 F It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
( Y) f! t6 j; d" Z0 E$ K$ V! T It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the$ |! i7 g( Q$ I3 f! A( K6 ]$ y% X
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.: T5 ]0 _8 G5 t+ m0 R

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 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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