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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
  T( U  V  a$ o4 \1 [5 a( q$ E3 e
Market Commentary0 H  Y& _6 `% q0 w
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- E6 y" \5 T5 R0 Q+ s6 hJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager5 F6 e1 E4 L( f  A
Signature Global Advisors
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$ M: e# h" q3 K* R) K# o2 u
Background remarks7 v3 a9 s- \  J1 G9 F
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
: [: t% A, Q! h8 Eas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.0 i- c- u7 `& Q; Z
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 Q3 E; b" U; _7 }adjustments.* F9 @8 r; M9 H6 P" j( o! r9 r
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
( _% ]$ Q$ C3 R$ K8 Q0 C8 Esafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
3 w# u0 ]! F1 ]7 \2 ~" K, }  X Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are/ |& e, V3 `. g3 `7 R4 t2 I
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.0 [3 ?5 r/ q" S# t! [: k4 E/ `
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
; t0 `# `2 M$ F$ p% p1 r2 F8 v1 m( ]adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.- T0 Y* N* y1 k7 d* C
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s" v" V8 a) U/ B9 g. g& D) P! _: ]
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.( ^, r' ]2 E( o/ {2 R+ `
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.% `1 L( }& ~4 X4 F' D
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
  A* R6 B7 n! }reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation3 U9 D; x6 @3 Z! Z% _$ F$ q6 l- H6 ?
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
7 s5 h4 }) V: tas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
9 |1 F- {% |0 V6 fimpose liquidation values.
& P* _4 o8 `0 f+ p In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
+ C4 G! n  x% ZAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. |: c# o. z; X/ b1 i
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
5 X4 x5 }) r, N/ q, M, l. y8 ]' Zscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.8 J! Z; h8 a& B- p/ l8 C
8 Z2 M$ \& Y: h% D7 d
A look at credit markets- F' \, r8 S. u) y3 o6 w; A( R& h
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in2 M: s! i" c' G) L$ K
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
& l+ q7 Y& {4 N High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%$ \2 W$ `' g0 U% ]4 r
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 p" l& u% h+ q; w; s1 E! E" f% kbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
+ z4 Q/ }( N2 R9 Qaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade  n( [% g! f/ s
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are2 |: k- f/ d# }- d3 V
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
& I( ~1 f! M7 v Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 K4 K1 L7 F6 e. d: j8 x4 Dfinding financing.
% P6 ?" t* O( c Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 m+ Y4 O0 G7 \
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
8 `7 j9 g" D5 o6 p4 ~/ ? Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
3 _6 M2 x$ Q4 r2 v9 @. ~$ E! lis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
/ G- q( r) c3 H8 Ogoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for3 s) v2 n* p( w7 p2 M/ Y1 p* p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' s: }2 p3 g8 c& r
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain, Z/ A, a  ^9 o4 w$ X$ S  {7 Q
today.1 r, ^  f- L5 ]4 F$ ?8 @! p/ A' M
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in8 u$ [6 ^  N4 u$ Y2 Y6 v2 U
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
* X' j5 I. t1 M, t Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* J- d8 U+ j8 n: W4 M! X; q$ `
the Greek default.) L# k. K$ ~, G, U/ @* m7 a
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
# x1 I/ J) g( Y( @* ~1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
1 \5 N' k( h* E! C" f% p' X+ |# g2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ |' C. {5 L+ f: p  `/ P7 Pdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
- I) e2 Q* s0 W9 P- C! n. X3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing1 p. c& Z' k+ w6 ^2 a6 h
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years: t% t: M0 _: m& I+ R
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.) L% u3 ]% Y+ ~2 I0 r& T) o$ u0 D0 L
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Beyond Greece
2 P: z( P  j6 g' c The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
1 |( A4 Y( q$ r  dbut that was before Italy.
$ |3 V- p" ^# U1 M It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.) X% k' v$ C6 g, U& C5 w, ?2 g
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
. Q& T7 p* H+ C  R4 m" Z0 YItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion( m! j: L. Q  a: N: c& q! h
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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