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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary( R. ^* P( r- V9 u- N
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer0 m, R" ^4 Y/ W* U0 R1 ]
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
2 T$ q' Z2 H, \2 @. @- wSignature Global Advisors3 J2 e" D0 f( O7 n6 E6 f

  |$ u" t8 N( N1 k% d5 B' [. I# `( p4 y# M: q" ?
Background remarks
9 o; u$ A3 q8 M1 ~ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are1 h1 \- x" x) s: z6 \
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
9 |) ]' S; D, d8 w Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
7 B$ g( `. F5 M! s8 Fadjustments.
4 ^! F( a* _' t7 [) u This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
1 ]' k9 }: w% l( |+ b$ Isafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
- a8 E3 H) X5 O! f* g7 B Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are3 H$ z* x  v; j% l* C) h6 Z
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.0 }* {3 e2 m# m5 f* Z: i( T6 p
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ V- i8 ^" d/ [9 O, n$ ~% d, hadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.. _: W4 d! I" a$ O1 \. e3 \
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
; d* o. q2 x( n9 w+ e: c3 t7 N( @quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. o. v# U! D) L
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.% [, k* d1 G" p  C4 U  I
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have) L& e+ ~+ }+ l# R* @/ m2 }: T
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
4 _( {" N1 D8 S6 J9 P6 t6 r! G The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long% P* y: I/ ]# ?  m( ~5 q
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
* e% j4 ~& w2 F% u) F! qimpose liquidation values.' c  F/ g" D' i- e# r; w- h8 y
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In' R+ y9 X" u% F! o4 \+ x. i
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view., R( e' E6 e7 I  O6 f4 j
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension4 h1 G7 W+ e3 b. {3 j0 N. F/ J
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 \" p# d+ U2 X

( r* D3 N7 C, ~% n% Q- {A look at credit markets
- e1 s$ `$ K8 `! i! e9 t' ? Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 i1 Y! r. S/ k4 rSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
/ l, z1 |# D( P5 z- h6 \ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! g" |3 v& P- w$ X
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
; ?4 R+ b$ y' {, I1 r, cbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
: N+ Q9 a9 m* _9 @" Daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
" x9 T# d' ?" J. b# QCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are+ \) G. T8 e$ |1 E4 E* T
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.; Z+ ]( |& A3 a% b; x& i* O# Q) `
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. |7 R/ k  z, _" g6 X
finding financing.7 ?6 n9 ?0 D# w$ h# y- k
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they0 _+ z! z; |, l0 T, {/ [, a
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
5 C' k; m1 n1 A8 T5 d. Y Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and( k3 M+ \! ?4 [4 [5 T2 x9 g
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
. H$ J& f+ P; g! t& Ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for9 f; ?* t. u4 P3 a3 q
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.0 H: ?8 w9 [' S4 `2 A
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain5 `0 f0 [& v& W0 k
today." _# I: k8 D- q8 G' f( \' b4 d
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in3 R& I. K; U6 I& v
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
, f1 o. ?4 Y' T7 Z Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
2 I. E" c3 M( k: C; hthe Greek default.
$ M* G' t' h5 J, B, ~6 T8 r As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:; P1 F/ l/ B4 h# \( ~
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default+ y2 M- U  P9 y% V) z5 u$ j2 \  X% k1 ?
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' W& p4 Y$ [/ i
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.: |/ G5 C- c1 J$ E$ I2 H1 f0 N6 ~
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
7 I5 j6 `" _7 d# ]0 m8 Zbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
1 T% r/ Q% q9 ?* {0 Y, y  {4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.: `1 U, r6 l! T" q% }; v

7 h% E# C. l" hBeyond Greece
* H, c. j# P' u" A* g# P9 n- ?% N$ M' O  c1 E The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),& N2 D7 @" K: S" N6 v$ \; H
but that was before Italy.+ x5 N, L& k6 Z8 N( N
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.9 x0 v& ^. `" S0 k1 x/ _, l3 Y
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
: w) C; j8 @" O  T: W5 NItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion6 ~& t% m& w- U+ `% ^3 X
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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