 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation
; v. P5 U! u. _0 L The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long# T7 H; H+ d4 l& | a
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may. R4 r; m& }- |( x- h; ^* [
impose liquidation values.; O; H# X5 ^7 ]' N6 [4 t% r
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
6 B: V4 T5 w3 z" @4 h0 p3 P" j) B7 r+ pAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
) A4 f' y% A3 ~3 p; f The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension- W0 g$ F. m4 z% }& U
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ |0 y; u- e+ [* p. a
3 @& C; B2 V6 M0 b/ u$ j }) ]A look at credit markets
; F! I9 g* `. S% F3 T. L Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
/ J& `. B |5 Y5 l; eSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
# z0 ~7 }8 u+ O High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%* H4 U0 |. L* C% R
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
0 `) l6 T8 z4 {, q& obillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have: y3 ^! {' z& v3 V. ^( \- ]
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ i3 @4 Q; J+ w& e! \/ oCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 T8 H8 e0 F( e' r r8 j
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield./ \7 \4 H2 Y8 f3 O1 d
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% C& W; F# v( I) R9 k. m: Q' p. B
finding financing.
( n3 r/ f$ _& C Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they: S& B$ f4 M+ ~2 E/ q( e4 _
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
/ m N; }# x! F5 A Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
9 G& v7 k+ ?- }7 w" t* {is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
1 Y1 n5 f- i+ m/ J& x& Bgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ B; ]' ?4 K+ l& K$ w! Qbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
L# ?5 E% `: h h6 y% B European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ m1 h& T# ~. G! z* o
today.0 ]8 e; s$ P, S
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in( O, K/ v8 z! c7 n y
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|