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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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* o; o8 j5 H0 m% m! wMarket Commentary
2 k* G% H' m2 N2 M, r  m6 `  L: R$ wEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer) L! r  U% O; A& k% R$ e
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 I4 }# [2 A7 r7 V/ ^Signature Global Advisors5 N8 j2 P% J/ S+ H/ E
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Background remarks) l0 @' K- g$ [8 Y' M. ]) d
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are( l, t. I# }, r- s7 ^
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
8 A3 D7 a- O/ W* a3 n# y Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal% I3 H- E5 Q, G" k; `
adjustments.
: ?) t; O- d  W/ C. w. E4 x% w This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
$ g7 Q& x8 [# D( B5 c4 I- ^safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
  @; b" K9 Q( W  K Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
3 @2 N. z' J% u, d! Q/ Blessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
% }2 a+ D3 {' d6 \ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these. ^# p+ l+ R0 q5 O$ f/ V
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.* Z4 H7 e" T: ?) a$ R
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s, g4 [# U1 W7 Z
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.' S& |4 `9 ~: o) Q  M% t
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth./ K$ q5 s' Z5 Q, x0 W* N
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
3 M  g+ w+ l1 N, ^, i4 i- E3 Qreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
0 f5 ?" v! m  a( v1 z- j The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long4 m+ e2 r. P. A7 U& F7 W) d
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may# Q3 J0 ~/ O: V9 n; C" |2 Y+ @3 \+ }
impose liquidation values.
7 P- t5 E% {" @6 f- s* N In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In9 M( d& I0 [9 ]* L% M. k( M
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.: |) d- V- M0 W# |1 {! Y5 r9 a6 A! U
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
9 \. s9 j" r6 g; b' wscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets./ |& Y% T5 g; i$ L7 c
8 W) t! y) _1 i6 T& I( ]5 U# Y$ E
A look at credit markets0 i9 p3 J) X$ O+ @  W7 c7 ^" @3 m
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 p9 N6 x4 v2 V  ?  p8 WSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.9 f2 K& V7 d! w+ r1 }# |
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%. y, ^6 {* d0 \$ t9 c8 h0 U1 `
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
/ s4 J. J- [; m% X* [$ W$ M" c! Ebillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have0 [3 w, a/ r' P: F) t
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ y  _/ A! S: V; S" GCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
* P' l. s4 \7 j& Q+ u, t0 E6 V. rpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.4 H; S1 j4 r" n$ b" R8 K9 n) u5 t
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble# x; f$ H4 n( B8 _
finding financing.
5 O0 g. W4 S' P& i5 _ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they$ K3 H' z+ c% g- p
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
4 R3 r! K/ p5 ?) F# y Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# b: j5 @* s' |. v5 o* i( ~
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
% C- n: l* }: r5 V/ xgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
2 G" J6 F  C6 s  G: q  C& ^bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
8 U# A1 o2 \- c European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ z8 {% t- t+ {5 A: p4 r
today.$ E6 o/ N; y9 i/ o
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' p5 _* q: d' h8 bemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda0 v' e+ ]( w# J
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for' e( ~+ ~" A( E- j* w+ g) k0 G
the Greek default.: X/ B5 n# u! T& x; Q* {
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:6 P0 K8 c/ O/ b2 n  P' V7 _& z. h- z
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ F9 D) e3 a8 ^  u% J& N2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign, B- V/ @0 k2 C" o
debt stabilization, needs government approvals., E+ z5 ]% o& y* w# L& t
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
: L3 c8 i- T, D. ?# hbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
$ K- z8 \9 Y2 j) a4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.8 J. w4 e* h& i
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Beyond Greece
$ f& l2 f1 F. c4 M3 h( o; u The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),) t. B% n' J1 l3 j' p
but that was before Italy.
/ ?# A3 i* h' [5 ?3 S It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
$ T- J) u1 A. {) J. C. {& M* F It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
5 b  q( @1 o* w9 _4 {Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.& u* t- w$ N1 g
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Conclusion( R3 |& |( ~5 F: n  y" `4 m
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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