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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
( G6 m  g0 L# a: _Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer! H  u5 z4 w5 Q! N
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
3 P4 g9 x  d# m# F, F" ZSignature Global Advisors. `% a3 O2 ^- `$ b7 }

$ d/ {. r1 }& L8 ^( @8 x; D5 _; ^& |5 d0 ]( v( g1 V
Background remarks
7 [- e- o3 F( `: f5 J Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are7 K2 B( d" X) u+ T
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
) I# {- X- u) f" ^7 j) d# |+ [ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal0 [- |  j6 O6 f! o9 L
adjustments.7 j: [9 T7 p# I
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
5 k- L! V4 k  @- u8 Fsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.; Z4 [( G# O' C# K
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are: U7 Y& O# ]8 w6 B& V5 ]! r% U
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.; R2 }( @) W- ~: }
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these( n. Y  Y+ Q4 w) {2 ~6 A( K3 y
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.7 ]) h+ e7 a9 [/ o. r
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
; a4 V# E/ I/ A: X% S! b% I6 Z+ Qquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.. h( g. B+ m6 k! V
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.& |$ w$ Z1 p8 X7 u0 F) }) c
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
+ Q- U+ O$ K' J+ Q: t* b$ R0 wreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation- i$ F- P( W- k- o9 `
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long. l8 y- N3 w) u  ^" _+ ]4 m
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
- r; N( s" W7 S4 P/ D& Q" e+ y2 ^impose liquidation values.
2 M' Y% b$ ~& Q" P9 K In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In8 ?" M7 D4 A7 Z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- c8 {5 p& M! g9 i1 p  x% W( ^' v  { The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension3 N7 t! @" E# y, y# S% e& N  m
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 h2 Y9 o! r2 O* A7 z
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A look at credit markets; ]; M: A9 ~; x. @: O
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
% K- @6 p: S/ W  n' z* |9 ?September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.. _7 d; x; D4 x* M- G  b
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
4 m2 \& b3 [' r! |' _% @then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) y2 N% `# r; b; |, wbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
4 s8 i% d* {8 y4 aaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ f8 E) \* i/ `3 R$ SCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
5 X& Y; v& ?- t: G2 e5 n+ npositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
0 _9 J, o  W5 D. @- ` Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble, U2 ]" ]$ O/ W+ D6 `4 z
finding financing.
- n5 t2 C- z( T# i) f2 U Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
0 V8 M! }; ]2 g# ]. k  i4 Uwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.: D& S, h2 k  @; F0 c: B1 B
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and. k* {! ~; Z2 a8 P0 v$ g$ e$ Q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were% C2 C- ]) @" ]& b
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for5 y2 @1 x5 D( Y3 Y) M) g4 ?/ n$ u9 S
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 {6 ?( Y( k- l# Y, r* X
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain7 W8 M) E8 z; c- M" [
today.4 @' o# j# {; T' Y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in  I2 A, H, F" \2 D1 U1 I& Q/ j  g7 L/ E7 [
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda5 N6 F3 Y, ?0 z# G
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for7 g7 c& t& T6 A/ Q1 p
the Greek default.! Q# B9 k; l9 Y6 A% d" R" L
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:' c$ B$ U1 ]$ V* A) v
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
( v2 X% s$ ^: e  j! u) M2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
# F' N- u1 n2 x: E& ~. Sdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
9 M6 `5 r, l0 `3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing# o' ^2 Q8 q' P5 a! W( m9 h; C( U# P
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years# T  |3 q4 s' h2 E- G, E+ F
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.0 M8 P4 ?2 P+ l+ k

4 I8 m9 I: B: u( IBeyond Greece
1 N% S' k( s" a The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),: z; b* e3 O; o# s5 z/ w
but that was before Italy.
& `/ a: _& V  u( d It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
+ M( h  R* f: A5 N0 ]$ y7 } It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
' s  q: q' P* F* G) T/ ^% w* s; Z) tItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 N( U$ f0 K: o: V4 f" g
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Conclusion% W/ r% q- o! G: I
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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