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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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. @5 K+ a" d9 q# Z" ?$ vMarket Commentary/ T, j9 P3 @7 P7 q) E* c/ h
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
0 D5 I3 M9 S  UJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager7 Q' f$ N/ N# y: W# K9 C
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks2 P3 b8 C0 Z  v5 j) e
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are! g, j. m& w- x7 [% }1 L& q/ r
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
; l$ v$ R2 g- N1 d- c( m- O( `" N Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
9 I9 X3 `& i+ X$ o8 Kadjustments.7 V4 R& f9 J  ?1 m/ {) `1 N  e
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social* `, e# z' n; J8 H% d. L1 r  A
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
- b& l) ]; N/ k" b3 E Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
5 R% k# A+ L# e7 e, p0 u% slessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
* s/ K1 |8 |8 [* O. i* @1 G We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these+ Q* M1 ^4 @5 J2 \# s! o1 o: I
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.. x7 M) H1 ?, g: ]) i; h: T, K
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
& \3 B% B- i) J' A1 ^( |quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
, _& @/ b( \+ W Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
0 M/ P% n# @0 i6 d Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have; O8 g( U( D) a2 E
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
1 z$ w& N3 o9 @5 }5 d0 Q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
; I& e) M: u) c% f* V. {6 Fas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
4 }" l$ i( X4 H" L% |# ~3 s& Eimpose liquidation values.
" F" I: ~. `1 E# [* y In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
2 Z3 I$ t/ V6 C0 _- f7 C5 {August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 d& Y$ h( O) V+ d  h. A
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension  D0 Y3 C& H/ ~5 P
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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- `1 V0 c. u+ w8 G4 p8 fA look at credit markets
% ~  s. l$ J. y' X5 l Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in+ X  H( C5 E( s7 a" i; S
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# q, j: J! f( e) Q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%1 p' o0 \) L' \- O: b
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $13 Z$ x/ X( q. }
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
) L) A% v5 s1 J% zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade& m, k6 R) U$ M; _
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 n& a) C7 K0 v. u
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
+ h8 U% E1 u6 {' _2 q Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble/ J% g" T+ P. X* V/ d
finding financing." t; B, X  N. j, a
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they/ ?2 {; V9 a; Y9 q
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.* l7 o+ n" m9 i% ?, v% {# K
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
' i5 L6 g1 S% L" O, |is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were8 I' N4 b7 E5 {$ i8 t) x3 I; [
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for7 ?: F+ x" F0 C/ D
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
; \$ [3 `% a; S* y6 ] European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
. n3 n6 M" \' D5 U2 wtoday.; f' ~1 g/ w0 b4 R1 \4 ^" \, e% L$ n7 B
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 V& l7 W3 H- O& u  x& eemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
& [# u+ g$ \3 ~% C0 o Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
6 X2 U3 q  m; H; Q6 R9 [the Greek default.
, ^; j4 P/ e+ X" m( e3 U! r, P9 ^' ~ As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:; {. {: v" Y% s, Y
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default3 T, d8 m/ {3 J2 Z
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
- H  i6 c) z' V0 H" Bdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3 y7 w- |  ]* }: a3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing( a- l! s7 N; v( u
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
5 F) ]% E  w5 g0 {: f4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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! x. P& s/ W* c" m* ]( @Beyond Greece% ~# R; E! K% x/ S# |+ F
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
6 a2 c$ I/ i& k& rbut that was before Italy.
0 `+ S$ ^: M& R: w' c. u& M It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
, C! J  D; K# h6 G! M* _ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
1 s- [# B/ S. X' j1 d/ w, e) v3 WItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.4 H2 T; S* x( a" G; e( Z
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Conclusion
' k- m2 ?/ v$ j) a We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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