埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 3019|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。' ~; c3 Z7 X3 n. z7 @
$ H' V0 L% C- f! d: y; F
Market Commentary
8 m8 y- X% _6 K8 s! ?9 W, s+ ?6 vEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
, S) S( h! u% x% Z' V$ p1 `: TJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
& e4 c& X6 [$ B3 VSignature Global Advisors
  u) O, M& ^( r- A7 g
! U7 b& ~/ b$ j  b5 ]: j  T1 R
( r  u6 D  M1 ^2 ^Background remarks
, c$ H' m6 H/ U' Y2 E6 {# _! F7 L5 L Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
' t3 F9 `4 V( @% g) mas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
' b9 W3 {( |5 l7 T Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
  L6 P2 F* D) {" \" ?adjustments.
$ L9 a* s# L2 ~8 G( Y. l. N! g This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social3 e' v6 J4 j* U, [
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.& _' {4 [6 f( H7 U. I- S3 \# R
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are" Q8 y+ X& C0 G$ o
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
9 `. h* f0 n0 L" N6 M! H4 e We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ j' i: Q) r3 ~2 p2 H* G/ @8 `adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
; H6 n9 |% \9 f! O8 ~8 ?% | Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s3 z+ t3 w/ _2 N' X0 g# I
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
1 N9 U+ q# f: b3 G0 | Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.% b* |5 m1 _+ ~8 e# E" Q
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
- Y! j: O  z' ~) ~! S9 S# ], Y$ |reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation6 p+ `% ]5 @/ |/ t7 z% V) |4 b0 y/ m
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long' }% }4 m" P# u
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
) O0 n% r# u; C; f- O8 Dimpose liquidation values.0 x1 _/ x3 g, M  [* x
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
) m" d5 }( ^. ?) s. m7 l* DAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.' v2 d5 P( t5 S7 `
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ y; Q, g, c! V  H/ h9 |
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.+ p' s0 K# F4 T# o/ |0 m

$ J+ }  Q- P7 f" QA look at credit markets
! B( Y5 y9 w! M4 O* }) D8 U Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in  I; a* p9 m% u: A" y2 U1 U
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.- c& s. @' w4 P- H7 \
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ ?. T9 G+ L" `9 ]8 b/ [% u3 wthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1. \' V7 H8 |& E9 \! b
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* B$ B" `6 }" U7 @8 u% a) J6 a' e
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade% A# G/ A- Y; f' c# \% T& Q
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 E! n" e1 Z7 X' u5 q( {
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
8 q6 ?7 |7 U3 J- W: W& c( Q% I Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
7 N7 a" H& {: S3 d1 p/ mfinding financing.
. y, P4 w/ R" n! j; N& b# i  J Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  k* Y2 K( |/ F% A1 f, ?were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
1 x6 f, V* Q2 T3 Z5 j( @; e. z  j Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and+ V: }- k- b9 }" l' J! ^, S
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were$ B& {1 y* v& O2 }
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% C& \$ [9 L) R6 T! }
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place." `5 k. D$ A1 F. k4 h8 o
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain: C* e$ ~9 a- f% [2 f3 u
today.; m7 K# q8 M/ b5 N4 O- G0 S- h
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in4 G( U* M4 C/ Y3 k) G
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda; S: ]/ X6 K/ r2 A% R
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
( q' U) ~9 h( x+ Y. Rthe Greek default.
  D5 G- V( D* S- Y5 }- Z As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:: N# p6 g/ z* ^, c( m/ y6 ?
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default, E* @  S4 K/ |
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
5 {) H" {% d# C5 F( A0 E$ Vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.( D$ Q8 B/ e7 w* A7 Z
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
- W* ^( q& f; p5 x& [0 M3 b+ u3 cbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
( F% B( l  j4 D4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
! [5 ]& x' G4 V! c6 G- ]' ]! k
& e+ c( Z) `4 ^Beyond Greece3 [4 {* k- \& x5 z! q0 l& T$ t
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
1 R# B3 n; {- C$ W. j* abut that was before Italy.
; R/ g  y- p! C0 x It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.8 i2 Y4 _7 y2 G6 M- P8 b6 T- O
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
% k. L, h5 _. S% eItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.+ V& V8 e8 N9 \" o5 E
% w+ R  g  @/ v  {- j3 V9 z
Conclusion5 u1 v  [* ]3 ?  l, F' n
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-4-27 05:56 , Processed in 0.100394 second(s), 12 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表