埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2902|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
( `: J( K, S  ?4 ?% s% v! q% G
' {9 s+ a( Y( U1 u( @% h' s4 yMarket Commentary$ Z! H9 x. p3 n; e; k* l) t( L9 X' C
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
/ e* U% {5 Y/ k/ ~( O% ]0 VJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager0 n: [2 T) N5 D- d( n
Signature Global Advisors
5 s) @& I, _/ B  Z) ~) _* W, A- q7 {
3 w* o7 f) L4 ]& z/ u
- n- r7 b( M9 u2 x5 EBackground remarks
1 V3 i: W1 P9 O8 |- @# ?0 _0 f1 } Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
& P* ~. w+ O8 |8 Ias much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.4 H) y! Z7 m# ]) O) K
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal' b/ \7 g8 A1 j" L7 F0 \1 Y1 O
adjustments.
# h, G* W& p1 Q) B1 g9 b This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social! d( q7 a+ l( }; [
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.% c1 w* i' h  L9 L, }
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are4 H2 u  F# \  K
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.! A! u' M, r  o# \+ Y) O
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
1 m! X# u! Q( w' F/ k0 qadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
) O. y5 X9 t8 f Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s' ]/ C. b2 m0 \
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
! P6 u" ^* m' }" J Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.! @/ g& {: [8 b0 X
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
0 R4 E9 E" p! D5 Areduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
+ s7 E. X) t& z; y The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
+ r" M  f1 {' X7 w: N* @& cas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& P4 R8 V, h# p0 s* J+ H( y* D( y
impose liquidation values.
  V9 X9 c* p9 [1 B- f, k' P In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 E) q+ T" v$ ]8 [0 A2 K) s3 RAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
5 |' Z& \7 T* v& Q4 l5 @4 {4 n2 ] The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 ?2 Z) x4 ?" X, e
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.9 n/ u5 w6 I: d" Z% E7 y8 W
' @5 Y- |! s/ N& V0 _( }- t$ V
A look at credit markets# S$ a3 l) C1 n/ n; m
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
9 O7 L. M! w. LSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.# }) @2 }0 S' }5 B( t
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%3 _" l* c0 g1 b! ]
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
: c) \: V8 h1 X" C/ v* u' Dbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
, j; x; w& Q( {0 l! jaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
4 L, f4 l6 O! TCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are3 A) M9 o  F& q+ f
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.  t3 q! |4 `& e' J& {) ^
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
8 ~  A  _) s+ E7 Nfinding financing.
; E  N3 l( m3 c5 z* u$ t4 S Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they, Z; b8 \& ], R: D4 b5 O+ D
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ y- R+ Q5 i2 Y5 {# a+ F! Y Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
6 Y0 N  X1 v0 D& s8 His now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
6 A: p2 K, E7 K. e- r" S0 s$ P6 cgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for, i* T' D9 ^% A5 P# @" ?
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
) p" n0 H8 @. J7 S European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain( O6 z+ J1 j" R! O
today.# J1 {* p; R2 D6 ^# ?, V" D
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in. p# Z. D' G2 R* u- q
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
7 W2 y4 D7 v1 n5 m- ` Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for* R* m( j/ r5 o/ D
the Greek default.; p) `) y% g+ {. P4 }4 N
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
1 F1 J& S0 Z# {1 B: o1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default. U3 o- i9 ~7 f4 f" j
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign: f7 ?4 j# J. H5 U
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.  L$ S5 c% j) L# B$ [8 G0 l% i( q
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
) w& Y3 t$ k8 Y8 X( i4 ebanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" r: P$ l3 j3 ?0 \4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
/ h. o2 x% {: l: }2 d  S* @7 G6 U( X. |. }9 ~' l! v
Beyond Greece8 X, B3 R4 y/ u" a( [
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),9 n' j5 {4 q' O+ F6 j! P
but that was before Italy.
; k+ d1 v& A: V5 M  a: K6 n It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
8 i3 P1 ^4 ^1 I+ H( H) P5 S It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
0 a, L$ m8 }- F  o4 @Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.. P7 z& p# p: X; a1 J  k/ q' f8 j

8 g/ @4 c1 q; XConclusion, s+ i, S2 [9 M/ j5 R2 K
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-4-10 22:34 , Processed in 0.087774 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表