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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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2 T  g3 Z8 N6 N8 z9 x6 W6 X' TMarket Commentary  H. f9 p0 @: t. c  O
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer6 M4 V0 a% O" }1 }: x( r
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager4 Z% P9 K& k5 }" N' F  s/ r# P* N
Signature Global Advisors
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Background remarks9 l0 y6 p. s9 E# h, m+ z
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
( ?+ O9 f' Y- x5 O; }7 {/ @* X" ]$ pas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
# B; H- C  Z! `# p7 z# @( j% f' J Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal* d& H0 K+ g+ l' E6 X: K+ l
adjustments.# T% g  v. N+ T/ D5 `: ~7 q$ o
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
1 r/ b8 g% @( ]" |4 \safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.8 M5 S6 j4 O" [. k5 E
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are. M' [& o% B. G4 ^4 {
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.$ E* o. x# ^# o  c
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these) N. _; V+ G) v- [
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% c* J0 }& |, Y" M$ k, y6 _- @ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 }# f! o% A% oquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* W' F5 D9 G; s: X  F; y" g Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.) z9 |1 I6 y% U2 h1 A# c  h
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 K0 v' ^% T6 r
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
! I3 y2 l/ O# A) J The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long8 P; j- ]9 q+ d, q# h4 R# E* U
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
9 i: G( i! Y/ ?0 D4 T/ c: K! `" limpose liquidation values.' C) E8 \1 I( u# W2 o; \
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In% G& h3 a6 `* y( \: ~
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ E: d" c/ R& f( } The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
( A9 J: d+ |# _/ S7 ?2 z. Xscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 P: J. d+ V& ]- k: u% u

! j6 m7 V  [% l6 lA look at credit markets
% l+ K% m7 `% k1 o; I, D9 g; i Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
# @% Y) {" p( }: l  pSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! d5 O2 y% C7 _9 r1 f0 a& _7 N; O
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%) T' j( L3 W- k! E# w) G, i6 o
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
0 U8 o* e! r6 j' I4 A% dbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
% b# R3 t* D. J0 T! r5 Zaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade1 o1 l% G+ M* |( s
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
! k6 x4 u6 a3 C+ {, m  Gpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.3 G9 U1 ]) s( z
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( {0 |: n) F% z4 e* w9 {/ V& H8 Gfinding financing., ~2 j1 V4 F* @7 u0 E
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
5 k: ]5 X$ B; u1 c; [" `2 S* {were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.) `6 |. v0 e# s, z  W
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
  b+ b! d2 C  [0 Sis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were- |, ]6 r; G- t& L" n- `/ K
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for3 l5 I" J8 Z* x  e  ~
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 T, j! o  |+ g1 |2 C/ S' H$ b European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
4 m2 r9 r! ~! P) j0 Ytoday., x% g( @" J  e1 v3 }7 R$ G
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in5 q" b# b' c1 F: m- R* _
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
- h9 M! ]* a/ R Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for; v! m% N% D0 c# h+ z9 l
the Greek default.+ V8 X, Z" p' g5 ~6 }+ \- q
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:  b8 O: t7 N1 v, s4 T5 }4 N3 k7 K( I
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
' f8 l4 V/ K8 {1 ^2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign) a. ^* l* y3 P" `3 E
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
' B; d4 V$ B4 b/ r  j* P3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing/ Z8 V4 V3 I* F; Q/ Q* l
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years5 z, ?6 n, g' N2 Y, Y2 i
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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" b' K& n7 D: D; e$ I" wBeyond Greece/ q' K6 @  k- ]% t+ r" L; a
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),- r9 r/ v7 j: z' @! |
but that was before Italy.
& S, r# A! l! c. G/ T It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.1 u6 c3 ~; \* I
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
" L! m! @: a% q6 rItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.  p& N2 Y! y+ n4 N- V5 o& t8 A
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Conclusion% \1 \$ Z+ d2 \. i4 I# _! A! h7 v
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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