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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation1 ?: |$ \$ ~0 m7 S) ]) A
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long$ C/ ?, z' b3 u' Q6 @
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
' r* I! U' Y0 Kimpose liquidation values.
O& s; u* A; s) s1 z$ g( b In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
9 b& Y, \4 E' t+ QAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.1 f) h a: B3 u* x$ q9 ^
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" Q) X \0 }8 O @4 Z9 I. I9 C' b$ ?/ ~0 yscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
- K0 {, M U' U/ q7 c8 A8 L& e) u& H& f/ j
A look at credit markets
n6 C! x" c6 Q/ G: Z2 _( j Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
' L/ V/ [7 W4 t& f4 X" CSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven." t9 z4 R% Z7 d- U3 G7 f7 O
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
/ p) @5 {" z' @) j: _5 k2 W# e9 tthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1' @/ I( \; z1 N2 L; Z
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have. {& W8 e& C8 h4 F
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade m5 q- ~9 B d8 J: d
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) C( T1 a( c* i" a6 n. K' j2 ?positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
f! o. M. F% _' v$ t Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
0 z2 v% m3 M: k2 k4 t0 A4 mfinding financing.
) b+ Z! ]& R- i) D, r/ J5 X- ~ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they+ i0 C' ]) \% H8 `4 a8 L
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
9 M; i4 h0 P! l# F$ z$ E Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
# x/ `9 e% S" o5 e! \is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were% H! W* Q% E' @3 h- E
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
8 E) y9 ]% u0 @" Ebankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place." V! _) Y5 M! q. D9 a
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
) Q, y( S0 O" c) G' Itoday.
`& W: _* c$ n M. d' Q& d Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
: f6 `3 L, T1 Cemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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