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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。) d* t" p% F" Y; y

8 r# u) u5 C" l2 l. vMarket Commentary* d+ g2 U% B9 h. \# w" {* R9 T
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
* n, r, V9 X3 c) FJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
! M+ W7 r. H! ]& W5 G9 l. B. CSignature Global Advisors" d; o) c7 q0 A0 A9 U
4 X8 }5 @* z" M# ~

0 c1 K7 ^' W$ bBackground remarks# I! S9 c- y' J* I; ~8 o
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
/ ~1 G$ b2 v1 W" `8 oas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
, H" l% }3 R- H% E! c1 I Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal1 A1 z) X( F6 p% }
adjustments.
. f, i, S  @; p% d# z5 y9 O/ I/ e This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
5 n5 C* r) b5 G! c2 ksafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded., ]: k* g- H5 H* D
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
! z2 D9 K& z/ ?1 N8 Z7 Rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
' q, C$ D6 e* Z& _& M We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
+ i% P% r$ \; madjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
6 L% V/ _8 q1 ?1 Q Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
! {1 @! x6 A# c2 Yquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
* e1 D' a' U. H3 Z. c! K Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.* d# M6 j0 K4 s3 M
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
9 D% c% Y% v& f/ rreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation, F5 A! M9 T, [1 M; D& ?5 B7 T( d
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
& }, a" K7 k! t/ y1 B0 pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
8 _" p0 r) l2 ~, Z9 W% Q) I$ T: rimpose liquidation values.7 @1 D: u; g9 b. G5 l
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  Y/ k2 O3 \6 A0 b, N6 I: rAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.( N& g- u: G& O6 s( z- [- U. O
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
# D( Y* q: R* Kscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
1 L! a% K7 \* d3 d5 `( P, n4 I- g  e1 _2 a5 F- m6 r
A look at credit markets& k: g! ]8 z  J  M" K
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) O4 n, }6 f8 Z" f. K# X: O/ vSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.- B! o; ~0 f$ |! o6 C
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
& r1 Q7 Q" J$ {  ]7 r4 f% u" xthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. t4 c' E. f* r" _1 q" p/ d6 Ibillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have* o" J& X. m+ e7 ?
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade0 ~* ~  I4 W' Z  e: w  B# a  B
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' B% e  O  U& t
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield." Y: T8 r6 O* B1 v8 A# s7 [
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble8 }! M. b+ \/ l) s  H# D
finding financing., e# x1 O) N) L. ]# k
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, q6 p4 O6 S( o' ~& c/ g" x! qwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
$ j8 d/ \+ H, \. [* J/ G Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and' v0 q) E1 W0 R% x% s; n6 p6 q8 I
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
9 D( ?3 V# l$ ]# d: c* s, q- ~4 dgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for8 x' `6 Q4 z1 b+ N4 {6 Y$ A
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
: Z" s) l; ^2 `9 b6 r8 ~ European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
' i+ a6 I: ~7 p9 B! D- e1 O0 ?today.
5 ]; _" J, k, s3 @4 o Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in' h3 B& N( Y+ H6 f
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda& S+ a3 I" K& r" {) h# y
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
0 y- E7 Q+ W1 C8 w) h- fthe Greek default.
5 ?' l' S1 h# l/ v" y As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:4 X/ G! I9 I# B
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default! m$ ]8 C9 w( ]$ n! l  b: f
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign- L& g8 o7 z9 L! ?! x* D; f4 f
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
+ a. R0 G! y( {0 ^3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing6 Y: `; Q2 b* J  c
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years: v0 u) Q3 J9 w8 E: m% G
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.2 Q! K9 t4 c7 s

3 I6 J$ _( w' G& j, Z) P) nBeyond Greece. E. a! b  U0 |% l# G% b  g8 C
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),3 C) ]5 U7 G' S: y8 w8 g3 j
but that was before Italy.7 r1 r8 v& V$ n/ x, d8 e* W
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
) y" N" T0 |7 n7 r5 t; |7 \ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the9 o3 u- P' [8 }) ?
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
$ c& q' B, V1 l We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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