埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2663|回复: 3

市场评论

[复制链接]
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。- B. ~, q6 u$ b" S4 K. r

( y; M7 R* b: R, e9 S( h( |! l7 ]6 aMarket Commentary4 i6 @* i' ~& h' V2 Q
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer/ [% M+ \3 D* B0 v2 l, W8 J! Y0 |
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
. ^. U, Y% @, X8 T) H7 hSignature Global Advisors
! Q. X+ H( R5 e% \
  y: K: u+ _5 f3 k, J) |- |+ y. y4 L& |
Background remarks
9 f/ b6 [4 n5 z Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are$ O5 e2 d* A5 \
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.4 H" ^) A$ b# n! w, w5 G" P
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal) d2 P- i, S: u* O' x
adjustments.: |6 D, A5 f- v  I# h2 {8 o
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social. t( _8 L; J% \) `
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded." O0 C! }( E; f3 a0 ]- \8 S
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
2 ~# q  f4 K0 @4 j3 ]lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
8 C* T  T2 V6 D9 p8 J We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these2 e4 ]. n7 j; L" x' L: U) {' B
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
$ ?- J! N. Y, o Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
* ^( `3 s- S* r* o2 D% _& Iquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
! f1 R9 V- M" e% H) [% G8 w3 K Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
! {, ~4 e9 g  X6 W4 s' U Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have1 l" j$ R- B) {1 Y
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation  s. r, A0 A. I  M+ v8 p
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long: I/ d9 a) K/ t9 _- {! Q( ?& X5 W
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may$ C- E, n0 d" A8 R/ n
impose liquidation values.
3 r1 s: `9 u: S In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& v0 @& l- g, v; ]* vAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
- k2 F' I; M" q( q. z# v/ o The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension) N) ]3 ~; p3 Y' Y, U
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets., d# d2 D0 l! t
* P' x+ i2 B* `% h& G+ i# V
A look at credit markets
/ R% z" P  T) C* }; ]: Y1 \ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in1 O' D0 k) X3 t2 P" {, G* T$ \
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.% c  [4 D+ S2 E3 m0 z
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%5 q! S7 C( p+ ~+ z+ @
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1) k7 ^: o& [2 {2 ^, V, H, }
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have) c/ h0 t7 s- Q% T& D+ r+ ?
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
& v% V1 F3 q! _: tCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are! ]8 u) a4 x4 e- U
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
% w7 ]) W4 J4 Q$ }* |) ~' j% c, ^5 l Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
( x0 ~: v8 S' \1 Y& Sfinding financing.! V, v1 O) C) v, |% l" _
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they% [. h4 J; H  X. l* g- j& b
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
; K% E6 U6 n7 c* | Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and9 D) S! j. ~' ^) d/ {
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were+ K% F- w# g8 w. d5 g
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for- ?4 N$ e0 W6 \9 R3 n
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 B1 Y+ \" w- a2 [: V  A1 q4 r6 r European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain  m0 T, ?# g6 N6 @# h& f% W
today.% p+ m) z+ M9 C  s* Z+ F
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in9 H# d6 B" b7 E& q
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" A$ ^7 @$ z5 o) H& s& Z Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for1 X1 |- [" @! w5 W! i
the Greek default.
$ F- D6 ~- G; X4 v As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
% w4 T  p3 ]1 W& b: c1 W$ {1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
  S0 v, h+ H' ~) w' d& X2 P2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
$ k3 N# s- I8 Idebt stabilization, needs government approvals.6 B" v3 i7 j0 x$ T
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
5 {& v, h- m( q0 L! s: Zbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' p7 x4 _& y9 C0 v+ f# y4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.6 V/ z4 R" d7 m8 q0 O: I+ u* ?+ w# z
. o4 ^# V9 V$ n+ t
Beyond Greece
; K( ?- D0 y( D2 I" y% k, l; @) `: W The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
3 Y( \. U( i  z, s7 ]( V& C7 ibut that was before Italy.
& ?" Y+ K; x+ M& D  M It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.4 x  p5 m7 E9 X9 J( Z+ l5 v
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the0 a+ I) g7 Z% t" l. C
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
. @. {& {$ B: r9 S% D$ y
# N% b! }$ D7 J( F* oConclusion  ~+ M+ |& ?& N6 ^; r; S
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
kasnkan
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-28 07:00 , Processed in 0.209159 second(s), 11 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表