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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
6 F9 v' @5 }: c8 y2 B0 t& C# F9 Q1 P! K9 U5 o7 P( @& f# F) g
Market Commentary8 _- P0 {9 d2 {, Y" P1 W
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer5 m3 F: M3 P. C& Y2 y5 ^3 G
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager2 g' [# u0 m/ l& N" Y5 w7 |
Signature Global Advisors
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+ i$ O9 w! n1 h# i9 [$ `* B
& e% h: I- k* o* r" ^& B! \Background remarks
2 s- V$ r5 t: L7 k: D Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
7 u- y+ ^* a. P" J8 {0 j7 Uas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
2 o( Q/ k1 ^* v4 D' o# X Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, t6 @) a4 g9 o+ vadjustments.6 q0 K* g0 \% J
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 k8 _  F: u5 ^safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.: Z1 M/ E, ?# x" }% R5 R
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
" L) W' r' S, Q, h, olessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: _$ F- U3 D6 v$ T1 y% S
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
2 m) U8 d! v" Q* T# L- W0 R8 [adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
; A% R$ {% j% L2 r9 b Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
. n# K9 b% l% aquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.8 K4 ~4 e+ ]% J# N7 P+ N
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
% a! y, i% {  o: T: l  M- f Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have6 F1 p7 f$ n3 C6 K
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation; c2 f" w% H- P3 o1 N2 g' U
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- v, M6 G% L7 Sas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may6 Z% ~+ p  x( y# V& ]) H$ c5 N5 z
impose liquidation values.$ y, T8 |; b) i. h
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
( H" D/ h$ ~" D5 ?/ q5 {% ZAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.9 Q: g5 _' s, ?* P2 A4 t; y$ Y
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
7 W) q0 v7 [$ b  B* {. Gscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
# P& s9 j6 r0 m' b2 l  R: ]
# [# L4 {- ]# w/ |A look at credit markets
+ [) m3 `, B" W5 z, w: U5 `% V Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
! Z- G9 N$ N' _7 ~1 m4 g: ]September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven." s) i, z+ u& J+ v
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%  F3 S3 q4 q1 K2 Q, O' {$ c
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $19 y* i8 l; x" y* D7 O
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have( \8 F6 c5 E* ]4 H" A
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade6 _% I* j8 J5 N; M) \
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are: T- m! p5 K, X  j" G
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
, j* A# F, A5 K/ @" d: R Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 g6 v0 N. |1 L+ v: ofinding financing.
  ^8 @. I0 t5 ?( H Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they! U9 g9 Q7 I7 v* M( d! k/ j
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
  |; t$ i5 H6 z+ G+ A1 z Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
/ b6 [3 W) e5 c& vis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were) ]( q7 z5 n+ h( q5 J6 ]+ v; x) h( L
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* Q# g! X# l$ b$ X- i* b
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.: w) d9 ~( J$ Y  i9 v
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
! x0 \9 U6 }8 mtoday.
; N1 S  ^. ^$ Z; _; x" T Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% `& \7 ], s3 L7 V" K
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
/ ~9 X. P) n8 B4 [% M3 E2 y+ g Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for9 u6 i) R3 h8 Y9 W4 _
the Greek default.: j* Y& s/ T: k; F3 c% U3 u* T& N
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:+ R/ `5 \$ H* W! }  t
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
7 C. A4 X- [) n8 i. M: O2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign; ?) L8 a. V! B! S; I9 B0 O
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.: h$ ~$ e6 j% z9 \/ j3 ]5 O3 M% |
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing( {8 k% [, u9 A7 s2 ^6 c$ u3 F( _
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years$ {2 c. m# |; e8 s
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.# v+ V8 f; H8 T" Q( U

) z8 x8 T/ F5 ]. t; N/ R+ fBeyond Greece; T# k4 |6 L* ^- i) N
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
! z6 L$ X& F6 R/ C! a( G2 Pbut that was before Italy.
* M- H  g) P& c- H It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.3 @# l# z, y! {) N
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
1 C* z$ y, n% K% G# O: BItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 A* p+ H: f7 n# P4 ^' V
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Conclusion
0 Y4 n* g" Y6 |( m% T# E/ Y We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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