 鲜花( 3)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
|
显示全部楼层
Current situation# G8 I; z) x l. T' x3 g$ G6 \
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
- x9 N3 Y0 R. j/ n% jas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may0 `& n2 g3 T1 t2 r# U
impose liquidation values.% j( [: T& _4 Q) L, u& C( X
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In7 n" F6 s5 d% e; E& u2 w
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
, D9 y3 r% s& t7 T: \0 Z The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension3 B6 ^" g9 {9 x' k% p) Q% h. l0 y
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.! B! }0 U9 Y: o! b1 E
0 m1 ~# E* D" j: {2 S: n
A look at credit markets
! X; K: E! c! e* d Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in* N% [0 B$ D9 h! @- Z) K% K9 m, J+ I0 i
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.! Q! w0 y2 B% v3 v7 E* x& \% s. \+ s; N/ k
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%6 A- W& I$ S+ [
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
) i7 A2 o2 T8 {8 F" m: G- Sbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have, o4 N0 |7 n9 Q4 u0 x
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade4 x# W! d- R+ Y( j, x: [
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are, H/ i, d( X; ?3 `) D0 s9 I+ z
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: F1 J4 S+ E5 I2 |3 g( S8 W$ i: a: x Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
9 L9 _$ L( v9 U% afinding financing.
0 M- i& L g8 L# J: ~ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
" p7 O7 e- t8 c$ q* hwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.9 c4 R: g" T3 l+ G( `) E% u5 G
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and% M( N" w9 m/ [' t' u# k
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
8 R _1 d% J) A) E& Tgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
4 s: t0 y' x! O+ p: obankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 k; ^1 l$ p% m% S# i. V* [- d( O: V$ [
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
5 Y$ C! Y# F: C' w" g# ptoday.3 k4 _4 N9 d. A/ [
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in" k" {! D7 _, w. h* _6 f! j; `
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
|