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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。8 {' V- I" u6 M6 [
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Market Commentary
/ p) c3 ~( ~7 ~5 ?% HEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer8 a7 }6 ?  C( ]* q, C$ D- ~1 U% D
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager. x& q* N! Y% U& X) ]8 _* k4 Z
Signature Global Advisors. K+ j/ n- |: M1 {

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: \6 P$ E9 F' q5 M3 `7 XBackground remarks' b7 z0 [6 v2 G; J0 g. [$ L
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
. w5 M8 o5 P) Z) o' Gas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
% i: a7 j5 T, k Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
% i/ b. Z' H$ W1 o0 c0 [* \adjustments.8 e0 G5 J; o  t* m  |, I
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social6 _% r0 r9 h6 v1 x( ?8 ~
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded." @0 @, s+ R( c- J- ~1 A
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 B  e8 I  `8 f9 v3 q$ rlessons to be learned from the frontrunners./ z- H( G0 Q5 ]5 D( ?
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these& }* t7 F; L) l" ]( C
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.# V% M- I1 {1 ^& w  u0 p0 v. h, O
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
0 ?( A4 I- }5 J5 M, e3 J: rquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.# |  O+ J; I0 R! S) L
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
, l& {2 S8 E7 B8 }1 p/ s Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
( u8 \5 L  @6 I# |" F- Greduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation- }8 ?3 x' }! ?9 j0 t- U
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long5 n0 l! s; q" d. e7 G. X. V
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may- ?* N$ b/ P( n+ s0 C2 H) Y" |
impose liquidation values.
0 T, N. O, u. u: u: d In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
3 j) R3 ~* F5 z+ S" W4 u8 }August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view." N& r, v/ ~! a- H
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
" j5 O. F* O( Y* ]9 T0 f* n; {1 Nscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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( H: `# ^0 g' Q' p$ S/ ?A look at credit markets1 J) I$ I0 h) X0 h' E
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
+ F4 h1 _  w9 wSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
  I* O4 D3 f, q. n( r6 c3 N High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%' h/ y. e4 z* u
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1% d3 V1 h2 c- @; n: t% i8 Q
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
/ K% {: y. a% p9 b& C6 ^5 Aaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
# F- L: _) \! b. k; rCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
0 _2 g3 X* ^9 j  s) y% E$ Bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.+ U. I+ l3 p! N6 p/ [7 Q3 c
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble5 P" F+ I" q% k9 Q  l. V8 L% k
finding financing.3 T+ {# }: n* e$ |9 Q1 \! b
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
( q2 l3 A5 W5 G$ t% Ewere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.% g. q# w+ N  Y
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
! I, U6 `  X& Y* `, r2 c$ u, M4 I" Dis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were# n+ M* @5 C3 M# s  y! b; P& f  T5 s
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for+ S: o! J+ D. M( m: R1 i
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 c5 C5 `6 O& t. G$ k European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. T. q( w6 u; ^4 @- K' r& f1 G9 P# I% y
today.
& d, A$ \7 [! E! P- B Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
0 b5 A5 j0 p2 \' R5 l" A  Vemerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda9 i# t$ r* H6 }& F& ]; v3 y, k+ e
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
' J6 E& ]) \) d5 U# \) Athe Greek default.6 b, k- J. r$ b
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:# A9 A3 ?8 J) }) z0 T! W3 s
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default" D& Y+ A  C. Q$ x4 ^* ]2 r
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
9 W5 [% m0 r" @' e, B( Q7 vdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
! c5 z9 O& d/ \& W3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
1 R0 O: m- Z! ^/ t4 C# F  rbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years' k1 Y  t1 z: |
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
0 f! u. k0 h9 ^9 f- M7 d, @3 g9 S The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
, W' `. o/ v5 @3 K1 G) `but that was before Italy.
+ T$ q' G- G$ |" U It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
- _7 E; T4 ]- }, `1 o- R It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
! P2 F; w1 q* q% N# SItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
% I* R1 w* h; ` We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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