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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。! d* x3 X% n  J3 ?( L

1 l! K9 Z5 d+ z4 `( F6 `Market Commentary
- X' K2 o  [2 ]. Z; P2 eEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
7 }5 d% L  z9 b2 |, L) }+ @James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
; Y7 b- j5 V, v& A# v) l% ESignature Global Advisors
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7 Q- _( A. u1 c- L& j6 F# ~& S  v" f4 q8 T6 ^
Background remarks
3 c' n" u. m, ^; E$ X Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are- K2 A9 u& a: P* r' x' i
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.% @0 C9 X& p- s2 p2 a
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
- P* d% D5 U& j, Z4 Tadjustments.9 B0 H4 f0 Y; A% ]
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social  H9 W- E. E: P# b5 @: S
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
* [- u+ I4 ?$ M Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
& n/ J' |6 ^2 A5 R' |6 H/ `* j( T0 `6 Mlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.: t. F+ J* B2 p: [9 ?3 D
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
7 A& o% G( x7 \$ xadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
- K7 k7 k* M, m6 E/ W Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s( q  }. n. Y. ~, s! R( w$ b
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
$ j- h2 n# a- E3 V/ E Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.( ]: d9 m9 k4 k
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have5 t- n/ L. I# ?* W: G; a
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
' i+ ^4 d4 p, B" \5 Z+ i5 w The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long! ~; q1 G4 U7 c! ]4 {+ r6 n
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may3 Y6 L' h2 p' C" C: L
impose liquidation values.. O0 m) b& a: Z' y. A4 |/ f; }
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
, X, }1 a4 c0 r- M+ ]- hAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.. z) C, h1 U% }8 }: G
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
2 a$ U$ e: j$ I6 \9 R5 Cscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
0 ]1 ~+ z6 [7 S; I( k& W: |3 i Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in' A/ l* e8 ?' C. {
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.5 l' E0 y9 A* A# i5 C, S! J6 S
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
4 P: J, ]8 V- w1 I- A0 cthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
9 I9 S* J" [" G+ L& z) Vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have5 |: q  X  F+ ]* _8 I9 _' j
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
- X5 u& ^' f, }+ ~; gCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
2 C2 N) P. x3 C& `& ?3 Mpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.& K9 s5 [0 d; D3 f1 s% Q' x; P
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
  O+ S; h! T! qfinding financing.
* i! R  G, _9 D+ Z+ |2 [( B Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
  \* b! `8 W! ^5 Ywere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ p, V9 D3 a* S  K+ g
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and% u9 U2 r) b8 T5 ^# V, {) {
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were" U& K9 a% d, O/ C4 ^' j
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for4 z& A  }* u5 f' p2 @
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
. i" B2 d' j! m European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain! m- k$ o0 e# J% F3 L  P% [6 e0 \
today.- ]/ @- j! N6 t, H
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in% z" w! ]* G, F8 @4 d8 P
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
$ V" u# e  z7 d6 o& D: e+ g7 \! w1 z Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
% ~# x5 f* M7 R8 {the Greek default.& w1 ^4 X# Q* ^
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:; k% a2 h) |  G
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default% e6 E. c0 l# F) _+ p
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign' Z- B9 B! R- T: r; e% ?! _
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
9 {6 Z4 D) P0 g# I  g& ?3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing  D9 B! C% C( C+ J$ E- T
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years+ O6 c; J+ {- @) D8 t+ L" i
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
$ a# o5 {; l/ ? The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
, o# f2 Q% k4 _( l! j8 Kbut that was before Italy.
  p, I. p/ ^5 f7 d2 o5 `- S8 w+ g It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.! S* R% u3 j+ f( M
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
: n' a, h  |# ~/ u1 JItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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, s3 `% Q+ ^4 r% k( f6 ~Conclusion
2 Q' W  G: P0 n& k: T We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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