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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。0 W' X, [, Y0 g( Q1 J2 h& O* v
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Market Commentary
9 n( `% W" }2 K) T2 b) S% TEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
' n! N! x6 _6 c( w! `. t$ c& |% vJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
, N. {' Z7 i& A6 ^Signature Global Advisors% p5 D. l& c- l3 t. E

" B( \. R8 H8 O4 y* ^1 F' m" B
* a2 W$ `& `7 g% m) ?& J/ ZBackground remarks1 u. d7 O, v3 Y3 A5 v# a
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are/ G3 z& \8 j! y+ o- \
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.( h* \/ U5 y1 t# `8 r/ U! f
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
/ W+ A3 x& Q' ^- `+ Sadjustments.
' m' N  w3 D) Y5 Y+ | This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
, G9 k. \6 O, k7 F) j  o+ p5 f* \safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
& L5 S8 V0 b* { Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
8 E: ~* i4 [% G2 s; g2 elessons to be learned from the frontrunners.. n1 L) w4 |8 _! a" P6 `
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
" r/ t" f. K7 j: ^$ H% Z3 |adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
1 r0 v' W4 c6 `" S$ `( d8 M Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s; w1 ?2 T* \/ K9 X
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.& s5 v. J1 K6 R9 O3 p
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
  ^. W( d, f9 C) M9 _' k Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have  u3 I5 k. M2 G) j
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
* ?5 C0 ~8 J- f The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long- |4 S* i. l! w, N+ ]% o- ?0 J. j
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
5 g$ P$ P  V* ximpose liquidation values.
0 w1 ?/ y. L; ]! u1 B2 L/ [ In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
  E* r$ E. t$ N+ G5 ^' h3 N* EAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
* O- c. n2 C( z# } The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension1 q& J- S' }0 x: z! z" x
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 @7 U: q/ w1 b& I& {: W

" R2 _5 |+ ~% \1 K8 g- v" FA look at credit markets- G# H' E" @: {4 C
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
1 v* ?6 }9 |6 V( D5 ^: S: D0 }September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
4 R8 l' m# W- u0 n( J2 D+ m! J7 i' g- l High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%! B4 @! ~2 M* j2 z
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
3 @- R8 M2 h6 A- Zbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have# X; B; q2 W; P  @/ Y& K
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade$ {+ ^; ]* v: F! n
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are# |+ b* w. x7 O4 s
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
4 v5 b7 p; R  ~7 g0 e4 U Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
) Y/ ]( b2 o3 `# _  {finding financing.
  p/ J/ ]8 G* m' E. o0 T1 F Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
/ W' a; I5 S! B' s2 {' `# Zwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.! w# b( D) y9 ?. H9 w& ~
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and2 D- H# u; a# Q' n, A1 ?7 n
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
& y& T/ @' I, zgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for2 V/ |5 s; z3 u& D+ w$ r+ K3 n: c
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
9 ]3 U  r8 w0 }' O- c: o European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
8 K* `; M8 e0 Otoday.; g! v  D2 p+ D: E: S1 i) p& z  s
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 ~; U& W5 f6 H  L, }8 R  Gemerging markets have no problem with funding.
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
. H1 w( }  q0 S+ U Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
/ u1 P6 h' c5 {& T& Hthe Greek default.# g. R7 E! T' F0 W; S0 n
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:5 k8 N. l% S3 d8 H. r! Q
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
$ k/ H6 o7 Y- t1 N4 j* P2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
3 T& ]. o) A: U9 u" ^debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
/ N9 {. A# H+ L( K. n7 c+ g5 B3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
; {$ H( L8 k. r; P, S: s5 A7 tbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years  S, t: x, L8 V
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.9 V5 I( T: i, ]) P

2 n- j2 j1 H! G* pBeyond Greece
( }0 m- s: p9 ]  E+ L8 T* P The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),$ U. ]) l' t% h) P& T  a( s
but that was before Italy.
( @2 }$ ?0 h/ L: i0 d1 [ It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.- [# l8 Q4 b6 o+ b1 ~; R
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the; o: d9 G4 N0 y& x. }9 c7 N
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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+ U& _# s( ?. M0 m" S# gConclusion
" k( {& }" @1 p: K( |- k We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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