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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。  }: Q; E; l2 v% r, N. t* s

  d. Y1 ?+ V6 }Market Commentary4 `# @- }) _4 H0 E+ r% _! c
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer" B  n2 y  V4 J  e6 G* t3 L
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
1 `* e/ W4 U* y, lSignature Global Advisors
2 g3 [+ b% _+ Z1 F, L" w
9 P0 `: {8 P; O4 s- J! U+ F6 p* H
! j9 @% [1 V3 |# YBackground remarks
# d9 h6 b7 E: w: z$ H7 A4 h1 q- a Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are# Y) O4 X: c7 ]1 Z" E& K
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.. B1 w  y6 X: h
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
2 {% U& O$ ^! gadjustments.
+ u1 b; c9 H9 F: n This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
( C2 M8 L7 p  @) H! m/ `safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
+ \+ o/ p( _8 W0 `" |" i Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
, t. z  X3 f6 T- a# ?lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
$ A! N4 {7 k2 Q+ E6 }( \% ]: l5 G We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these, r) P; R9 `: C9 [7 x  Y! n3 G
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.8 c# }+ V8 z: |+ }. a, m
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
: y: z" V$ r2 c% ^quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
8 {5 }% s) m  F2 n Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.! o, F2 M# q( e+ d
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
! }4 U! e* O+ c; c- @4 u7 B8 wreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation, L5 H- m9 U; ]/ G+ B9 O! v
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long2 b! `9 e3 a# {* @/ _0 ~: f
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
3 J/ n* {$ D7 j: timpose liquidation values.: Y8 p9 l0 d( H' x% A
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
% C, U+ x6 C8 D8 u8 i9 lAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.# ^. O+ @' d+ U% ~
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension0 D! L  _" q: O
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 a& Q% v# A) Q& z0 r$ G: A- Z

) m& |1 e* O" W2 bA look at credit markets
4 b9 E, l& W8 [5 g0 u# @ Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
5 o" Z; n6 M, o( f) c& e- g& uSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
6 Q. A  p( L) R0 x High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
" L7 _% {5 |7 O# Z3 A& x/ T% J' Ethen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1* Y3 W1 n) D5 I+ _6 @
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* d$ L+ s* O' c1 V1 H% P0 b: ~5 ]. ?1 Y% Oaccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade) z" b5 A; K6 Y# i) G" c
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are& e# {  v2 G; J- G* ?3 W! s
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
" N1 ~3 R# P; C/ x9 n3 S Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble: q/ {6 G- ?/ |1 g, T' D) L
finding financing./ s% Z: g, C/ l' ?8 h
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they8 D( a: ~% Z; e! {1 G) O
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
- @6 u! x( t$ i, z. ?0 a Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and5 s# }5 ^' @, n8 {2 `2 H' a4 Q
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
, `0 a/ d' |" c5 Y. y2 Pgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for/ _+ t  n+ I# ]  Z
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.2 U8 @1 C" y3 o  h5 E8 ?3 Q  h7 s
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain/ a' w  r) K/ _; J4 g7 }5 M' P
today.6 R' k0 l0 t+ W5 y: |4 @
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in+ t; e" l- L. P6 [" V
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda) K  f) r  i9 H6 z- `$ V
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
5 H+ |- a, ~! r- W6 ^2 e: f& Cthe Greek default., }( N: |4 k, U3 K( w# r+ Z
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
% x8 N/ e* A5 U+ d* ]% |1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default6 X, V/ Q6 ?% Z7 O
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign8 a6 E4 a9 v, y8 T4 ~6 A' B9 [- V) \* ~
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.) d; D( e* Y3 c1 ~
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
6 D; F( Q+ m8 l$ nbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
2 z% |- N& j) j4 w2 k+ K9 q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
1 H5 [8 h; K: t+ G0 N, M* n  x  i9 v: z$ W# ?6 `& Q
Beyond Greece
4 a, @& r1 z) t2 X1 L The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),' n, _1 f9 |  B( {0 ^
but that was before Italy.3 A. R+ o' l- o, A; U
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
  b# e1 e0 p# m7 I9 i It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the  j$ ~7 A* U+ ]0 X- r. I
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further." w6 i/ P" O1 f* a* @- `: `' }

+ y% E8 h; ~" i6 B+ @Conclusion
$ j, l( [3 C7 g. }; l  N" a  M We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
大型搬家
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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