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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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+ S0 ?. o$ w' i: ~+ ?9 M7 C: IMarket Commentary8 `' r$ V$ Q  J4 N) w1 h
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer9 j# ?  X( L3 \" |$ T  q
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager" A# G( Z- U; t3 y
Signature Global Advisors
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1 i, R; A. U- LBackground remarks+ J2 K# Y8 |4 D( g) N9 v& {8 v' D
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
! q* j. O/ n5 Q- F+ Xas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
/ [% ]1 h: Z" d2 o5 D Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
- t3 p! ^$ w+ ^6 \adjustments.' N* M# h+ M% H, m- w9 {: ?- a0 o5 A
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social& z$ ]. i2 [6 V- y; p
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
6 e" _/ [( k* w4 {0 M7 H Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are' S- g9 {; a9 `
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
+ R2 B/ [, v1 N' d! l( c We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these! y$ H, i4 c8 p2 Y# @. X
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
% |5 J" y- L. o* {  P6 D Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
1 @; o& n- V& a/ ~% P. C0 V. vquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.* r+ `; t. O! T; r
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.& \" M% q; \6 t6 A6 b
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
1 h' p) Q! ?5 ^1 V. Mreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
  e% z7 t. K! g; e% ~ The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
/ y3 E& D1 |/ A& r" vas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may1 r' J2 C5 j7 r0 p% a3 U
impose liquidation values.0 E6 r; f6 p. Q
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
& L6 [& G) B& l! w: IAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
8 N# x2 J4 F3 x" T! r. e1 a The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
7 ?. {/ C9 Z' E9 y. Mscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
; |- n& ]0 `5 z1 h% x- K0 z" J Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
8 h( e3 w% {, K# T; HSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.  m2 _) S; m9 g# H6 i5 ~
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%; a! h: N4 C% X1 [
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
. I3 J/ m  A1 {9 u$ H) [billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have' s( ~5 }; i1 _7 `
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
) l( Q$ G! l/ VCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are' Y: o' m! ?0 Y) S" ?" L6 A7 `
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
' F) ?6 V) o9 N6 E# ?% J* M Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble% F7 h6 q# c; O& o/ y
finding financing.( m- ^; S7 G) I2 [; C  Q, s: }5 L% a
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they; `0 {; P3 p3 v# \! n# p
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.& `6 T$ o  ?7 N: R* I8 o, @$ I
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and" A! t3 I; O9 ^
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 |$ N1 L$ x1 ~* Z0 }
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for% F  _+ x8 a4 t2 X0 V! p
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.& j) z" [+ ~  G
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain" K( t/ y5 N8 B7 W3 A6 d+ A
today.5 v# v2 V+ p8 E  t! b+ l3 p
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
' b" i  y' G% }% J1 e+ femerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
" S0 f; N( J; A Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
) |" |% z* j8 v" B+ n* @the Greek default.
6 k% Q; A6 n) ^- l As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ T, V' K' E3 A% a$ j, c9 |3 {1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
. x$ B2 t, e7 l- A9 b" }2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign* X/ W; d/ J: T  Y
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.; t: W+ m; |; ]1 s7 q
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
7 @) }2 }& k# m3 F: |& O% ], mbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
& ]9 m- Y% x; A4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.# B3 t; ]* ~$ U- v7 [

8 z3 D# p6 t( _7 J: K" OBeyond Greece
+ |" t7 ?  d2 D/ B0 v. }( w4 g4 @ The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
" \& o9 i; A) D( ~+ M. Jbut that was before Italy.
7 F- u- U4 y9 a2 L. i It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
  W  w- d$ R/ i4 Q It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
# a$ ]" m$ {3 \Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.8 R6 ?& W6 r; y  Z

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! ^! h$ v4 ~% `& ]* w) x( ` We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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