(ZT)Variable Rate vs. Fixed Rate: Which Way to Go?

郭森房贷 · 发表于 2011-10-11 08:30

文章有点长，但很值得一读！对许多纠结于浮动与固定利率两难选择的同学很有裨益！

Friday, 07 October 2011 07:38
Heather Wright

http://propertywire.ca/features/features/market-intelligence/1424-variable-rate-vs-fixed-rate-which-way-to-go.html

You can’t read a paper these days without crossing paths with dramatic headlines about economic distress, extreme volatility in the equity markets, and a general feeling of financial malaise brewing in various pockets of the globe.

Even the most casual observer can string together with some ease, the relationship between cause and effect, poor economic data, consumer confidence, sluggish spending, and sputtering economic growth.
Despite a flurry of analyst dartboard predictions with forecasts for growth and retraction, warnings about rising household debt and warnings about housing market collapse, contrasted with continued growth in the housing market, the real question is, what’s the average homeowner to do- especially when it comes to deciding on a fixed rate over a variable rate?
Things We Know
While interest rate activity is a bit of a dartboard throwing activity these days, there are certain fundamentals at play, suggesting while we can’t tell exactly in what direction rates are going to go- and when, but we may be able to draw some conclusions from the economic context that is currently present- as well as what we know from history.
Historically, data typically shows that variable rates are more attractive over the long term.  According to research from the Bank of Montreal, since 1975, the most cost-effective option for borrowers was to stay variable 83 % of the time.
Also, we know that, while Canada has many economic foundations firmly in place, there are an abundance of risks present outside our borders, particularly in the case of the growing sovereign debt crisis overseas, and talk of a US recession on the horizon; there are just simply too many factors present to suggest that a rate hike is anywhere on the horizon. In fact, BMO Economic released a report this week stating that rate hikes in Canada are likely off the table now until 2013.
Although employment numbers are good in Canada and the housing market is robust, there has been talk of the possible need for further monetary easing in the coming months, depending on how deeply the impact is felt from the economic trouble brewing elsewhere.
Again, this does not tell us the when and the how much for interest rates- nor does it suggest the intrinsic strategic value of choosing to roll the dice with a variable rate over locking in with a  fixed rate- but it helps frame the decision.
Trish Pigott, Broker/Owner, Primex Mortgages, in Coquitlam, B.C, says one thing to point out to clients, is that they are currently in a unique win/win situation: “At this point in time, you can’t go wrong with what ever your choice is.  Rates are at historical lows on the fixed side and very close to all time lows on the variable.  Choosing between a fixed and variable is a personal choice depending on the comfort level and risk tolerance for each applicant.”
Ally and Partner
In turbulent times, there is an opportunity for those in client-centric, relationship based business.
People who are fundamentally nervous, seek reassurance and guidance from other rooted in training and experience to help guide them towards making decisions that not only are the best suited for them personally- but are best suited for them in the economic climate which provides context for their financial circumstance.
In times of trouble, people not only seek support- they seek professional partnership.  How to best communicate this to clients, and how to advise them in the current climate.  Julia Krause, Kelowna  B.C. Mortgage Broker, suggests that clearly defining your role as a broker, and as an advisor has a lot to do with sharing your knowledge with your clients- and making them active participants in the process. And with an eye to setting the perimeters for the partnership, Krause throws the concept of ‘advice’ out the window.
“I don't give advice. I educate. I help my clients to make an informed decision. We determine what is most important to the client, and what option 'feels' right to them, and go from there. I explain exactly how variable rate and fixed rate mortgages work, how 'split term' mortgages work, how the 'prime rate' works, and how I will keep them informed on what's happening with interest rates & the economy (via my regular newsletter) and that they can call me any time, before during, or after, if they have questions.”

Pigott says that the time is now for her clients to take a good look at their financial picture, before they fully decide what makes most sense for them. “(Clients need) to look at their overall finances. If they can afford a payment increase if the variable rate goes up, and it will not make a significant impact on their household budget then they may want to consider a variable rate”
“As well, the ideal variable candidate would have more than 20% equity in their home but if their financial situation is strong enough to handle the fluctuations, then ultimately it’s the client’s decision.  I will do my best to provide them with the facts and details surrounding each product which will help them decide the best fit for their lifestyle and budget.  That being said, I may also recommend a client that is on the fence on what to choose, to take the variable rate with a set payment and remind them that they have the ability to lock in at any time without penalty if they begin to feel uncomfortable.”

The House isn’t just a Home

Although a home functions as shelter, it is often one of the largest assets held in a portfolio- and it is the most leveraged asset usually as well.
It also may be worth having your clients think about their total financial holdings- not just their real estate asset part of their portfolio.
It is a well known fact, that diversification is one of the best ways of mitigating against risk, and depending on what their other holdings are in their investment portfolios, including their RRSP’s and non-registered assets they may want to include that in their decision making process- and you may want to suggest to them to consult their financial advisors as well.
If a client trying to decide between a fixed rate and a variable rate mortgage is highly invested in risky equities, they may want to consider a fixed rate in order to mitigate against a double hit of a falling stock market- coupled with rising interest rates.  Economic data currently suggests that rates will stay low for the time being, but there are no guarantees.
It is important to remember, in this instance that owning a home is not just for purposes of shelter- but that it is an investment- and may be part of a larger pool of investments.  As such, it is sometimes wise to use principles of balance within the portfolio, to balance out net worth.
As a mortgage broker, you obviously are not going to advise your clients on other investments, but this goes back to partnership. Home ownership, and interest rate strategy can either help or hurt the total investment value- and it is worthwhile to have your client consult other members of their financial team so that they can make the best decision for them, in the current environment.

Know Your Client

What is comes down to, fundamentally- is knowing your client- and matching the right product to the right person.
To draw on historical data, and make a case for either or, really only takes into account the financial implications. What is probably more important, and more impacting on a daily basis for the client- is how much they are going to be thinking about their mortgage rate, when they should be thinking about other things.
Krause says, “For me personally, I choose variable rate. But there isn’t one better option for every person across the board. The better option depends on the individual client.  This is why mortgage brokers are supposed to get to know their clients and their clients' individual situations, then educate the client on the options, then decide together what the best option is.  If your mortgage broker isn’t doing this, RUN.  Run away.”
And as Pigott points out, a mortgage is for the long term. “It’s all about risk tolerance and comfort level.  For a client that is extremely rate conscious and concerned about fluctuating rates, I would say that they should choose the fixed rate.  When you are taking a mortgage, most people know they are going to have that mortgage for a long time, so stressing over the rate morning and night is not worth it.  Take the fixed rate, give yourself peace of mind.  For clients that have that higher tolerance and are willing to flow with the market and able to financially handle increases, then they would be able to comfortably take the variable rate.  “
Krause, on the other hand, says that ‘risk’ is in the eye of the beholder- or the rate holder as the case may be- and that the risk can be mitigated somewhat : ”Where is the ‘risk’ in having a variable rate mortgage? Variable rate mortgages are about paying as little interest as possible and taking advantage of prime while it's at record low levels. There's nothing wrong with that. But again, as a mortgage broker I’m different. I have actual relationships with my clients. I keep them up to date on what’s happening with interest rates. I won’t allow any ‘risk’.”
Fundamentally, you need to compare apples to apples. Looking at historical data, and where rates are coming from, and where they are likely headed- touting the financial benefit to a client is irrelevant.  The volatile environment in which we find ourselves currently, underscores the need to connect with clients, foster that relationship for the long term, and understand where they are coming from to steer them in the right direction.

小黄 · 发表于 2011-10-11 10:10

不吐不快，通篇都是胡扯。

“At this point in time, you can’t go wrong with what ever your choice is. ”

现在浮动比固定有0。5％～0。75％的优势，怎能说 can’t go wrong，如果利率不涨，选固定的就每年多付几千块，当然就go wrong 了。

“If a client trying to decide between a fixed rate and a variable rate mortgage is highly invested in risky equities, they may want to consider a fixed rate in order to mitigate against a double hit of a falling stock market- coupled with rising interest rates.”

更加的胡扯。当今经济情况，如果股市低迷，美联储怎么可能加息？加息必然是经济好转之后的事情，滞后于股市反弹。所以持有较高风险投资的（如股票），为了对冲市场风险，当然应该选择浮动。

qwlimited · 发表于 2011-10-11 12:58

不吐不快，通篇都是胡扯。
8 `8 f8 m6 w/ x& z3 i% W2 R2 t
. g& u6 X* X, i6 e( g“At this point in time, you can’t go wrong with what ever your choice is. ”
1 {- g( C1 l( b5 D# X) Y1 ]
* E% |( D, O8 h# |0 [现在浮动比固定有0。5％～0。75％的优势，怎能说 can’t go wrong，如果利率不涨，选固定的就每年 ...
) y; }9 x$ r) i+ q3 y) w& Q小黄发表于 2011-10-11 11:10

教授说的极对

wysyyhs · 发表于 2011-10-12 08:19

不吐不快，通篇都是胡扯。4 H! u% O1 f  y& i1 N# S
% o1 D% N7 ~- M  `9 d
“At this point in time, you can’t go wrong with what ever your choice is. ”2 }; O3 H$ l4 ~
- y" ]5 @* ~1 R6 e* S9 k& @+ h8 t
现在浮动比固定有0。5％～0。75％的优势，怎能说 can’t go wrong，如果利率不涨，选固定的就每年 ...  }# A. x5 K6 Q( w
小黄发表于 2011-10-11 11:10

bigbowl · 发表于 2011-10-12 10:20

是不是目前还是选浮动比较好？

Marlin · 发表于 2011-10-12 20:33

1# 郭森房贷

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2011-10-12 21:20

这方面听教授的不会错。

是不是目前还是选浮动比较好？
4 {- h7 ^9 w$ S1 ~4 G4 Mbigbowl 发表于 2011-10-12 11:20

郭森房贷 · 发表于 2011-10-13 08:31

本帖最后由郭森房贷于 2011-10-13 08:32 编辑

不吐不快，通篇都是胡扯。
1 }# i- g# j- w9 s, Z2 H  K
2 x  I& E3 K6 h' Q8 D. `$ p7 |“At this point in time, you can’t go wrong with what ever your choice is. ”
9 y, w  m% D" C' r: v& ]+ d/ V4 w5 |
现在浮动比固定有0。5％～0。75％的优势，怎能说 can’t go wrong，如果利率不涨，选固定的就每年 ...& o& h0 R3 e" P$ K# W
小黄发表于 2011-10-11 10:10

不知你从哪里得出的一个 “现在浮动比固定有0。5％～0。75％的优势”？金融机构时常变更其利率以适应市场竞争，贷款申请人在不同时期获取的利率及种类亦各不相同。尤其是在最近银行着力推销固定利率/调高浮动利率的时期，一些客户选择了短期的固定利率贷款（一年期 2.45%；四年期2.99%），相较于目前的浮动利率P-0.35=2.65%（如果客户符合浮动利率贷款条件的话），其差异是多少？

有谁能担保加拿大央行基准利率在两年内不涨，我请TA吃龙虾！

到哪座山里唱哪个歌，浮动利率已经没有以前的大幅折扣了，低廉的固定利率亦不失为一个明智之选。

小黄 · 发表于 2011-10-13 09:14

不知你从哪里得出的一个 “现在浮动比固定有0。5％～0。75％的优势”？金融机构时常变更其利率以适应市场竞争，贷款申请人在不同时期获取的利率及种类亦各不相同。尤其是在最近银行着力推销固定利率/调高浮动利率的时期，一些客户选择了短期的固定利率贷款（一年期 2.45%；四年期2.99%），相较于目前的浮动利率P-0.35=2.65%（如果客户符合浮动利率贷款条件的话），其差异是多少？" ^# O7 G# j) k

$ x6 l$ f( `( x$ |) x有谁能担保加拿大央行基准利率在两年内不涨，我请TA吃龙虾！" P$ T2 k J$ T4 u/ }- ]8 ?
郭森房贷发表于 2011-10-13 09:31

1) 一般浮动都是5年期的，你拿不同周期的固定来比，没有任何说服力。拿个4年2。99％，自以为得计，其实苯的很。利率趋势是，近两年不怎么涨，如果大涨，也是第三年以后开始。靠第3第4年，扳不回前面吃的亏。第5年更是大亏。

2) 所谓 “有谁能担保加拿大央行基准利率在两年内不涨” 是偷换概念。我们需要知到的不是基准利率涨不涨，而是其未来涨幅是否足以弥补当前固定利率的劣势。

郭森房贷 · 发表于 2011-10-13 16:49

本帖最后由郭森房贷于 2011-10-13 16:59 编辑

1) 一般浮动都是5年期的，你拿不同周期的固定来比，没有任何说服力。拿个4年2。99％，自以为得计，其实苯的很。利率趋势是，近两年不怎么涨，如果大涨，也是第三年以后开始。靠第3第4年，扳不回前面吃的亏。第5年更 ...
! A" J; j9 m' @& H( i: a' n$ p1 W小黄发表于 2011-10-13 09:14

1）我根本没有想要比较五年浮动和五年固定利率的走势与利弊，只是想告诉你除了五年浮动之外，还有更多的选择！

2）基准利率的涨跌时间及幅度无人能够预测，即使是最牛的精算师也无法准确演算出将来会发生的结果。以前的利率情形，大部分时间选择浮动是划算的，正如转贴的原文所讲： Historically, data typically shows that variable rates are more attractive over the long term. According to research from the Bank of Montreal, since 1975, the most cost-effective option for borrowers was to stay variable 83 % of the time.。但在固定利率沉降到历史最低点的时候，也同样有吸引力。

转贴此文只是想给同学们多一个思考的空间，你一上来就说此文是胡扯；和你讨论几句，你就骂别人笨。这样会严重影响同学们发帖回帖的积极性滴！

小黄 · 发表于 2011-10-13 18:18

本帖最后由小黄于 2011-10-13 19:22 编辑

抱歉，所谓 “胡扯” 指的是原作者。我不是很喜欢这种 “选两个都没错” 的文风，故意留很多回旋余地，说一些老生常谈，却等于什么都没说。

小黄 · 发表于 2011-10-13 18:53

1）我根本没有想要比较五年浮动和五年固定利率的走势与利弊，只是想告诉你除了五年浮动之外，还有更多的选择！
$ e; q0 V5 W3 G0 T& ]' t
6 A; F& _ M8 n2 y! m7 M) O5 h+ g2）基准利率的涨跌时间及幅度无人能够预测，即使是最牛的精算师也无法准确演算出将来会发生的结果。以前的利率情形，大部分时间选择浮动是划算的，正如转贴的原文所讲： Historically, data typically shows that variable rates are more attractive over the long term. According to research from the Bank of Montreal, since 1975, the most cost-effective option for borrowers was to stay variable 83 % of the time.。但在固定利率沉降到历史最低点的时候，也同样有吸引力。
" s6 C; [9 \. E# M$ ~( D/ U5 F郭森房贷发表于 2011-10-13 17:49

1) 我是针对你问的 “不知你从哪里得出的一个现在浮动比固定有0.5％～0.75％的优势” 进行回答。自然是5年浮动比5年固定的优势。

2) 高点低点本身并不代表有吸引力。房价总在历史高点，不代表就不应该买房。利率在历史低点，不代表就应该锁定。起作用的是另外一些因素，如经济。

固定利率所付出的0.5％～0.75％的代价，其实就是一个保险费。要知道这个保费值得不值得，要看几个方面：
1) 保费高低
2) 出现损失的概率
3) 潜在的损失量

好比汽车险，我们可以说，保费每年$1000，撞车概率为1%，潜在损失$50,000. 那么你实际得到的coverage值$50,000x1% = $500，还有$500是保险公司运作成本和利润。当然这是个最最简单的距离，实际上的撞车概率和潜在损失是比较复杂的分布。

对于固定利率，以10万元计，1%的利息劣势等于每年$1000的保费，损失概率就算17%，这都好说。问题是潜在损失额是多少？这和汽车不同，一损失就是大的。以当前的经济情况，即使是利率大涨，以如此低的起点，又能涨到哪里去？这是一笔注定亏本的买卖。

Scottl · 发表于 2011-10-13 19:41

10# 郭森房贷

原以为很轻松的论坛，没想到让版主搞得成了说脏话的场所，转贴了一个文章，楼主张嘴就“绝对是傻B写的。”http://www.edmontonchina.cn/viewthread.php?tid=466187 惹着谁了，我自己有房子，年初拿的5年浮动，5年内没打算卖，管他房价，利率涨跌那。就是想和大家交流一下，以后不会步入这个板块了。

不过还是劝大家，自己动动脑筋，借鉴一下美国市场利率和房贷的变化。留意一下固定利率的趋势：是否在下降通道？也许会有一个自己认为可以锁定的利率时机，换个5年安稳。

其实能搬到爱城和美国公司给过几个Offer，就是因为我在北美专业论坛有些名气。一是雇主看重我的专业知识，二是看的为人，能耐心解答大家问题。

ram · 发表于 2011-10-13 19:54

1# 郭森房贷
谢谢分享。我觉得事情没这么简单。浮动不能肯定好过固定。就算大家水平很高，能预测2年之内的利率，3年，4年，5年内就很难了。就象07年时不知道会有09年会有这么大的经济危机，利率能降这么低，很多选择固定的，亏的要死。那时就知道有经济危机的，估计10%的人都不到。真理往往在少数人这里。现在的情况正好相反，大家选5年浮动，与四年前的风险是差不多的。但选固定，显然比四年前合算多了。

ceramistpalace · 发表于 2011-10-13 20:21

13# Scottl

不要被吓著，继续发帖便是，看帖者心中自有数。世上总有此类人，见怪渐不怪。

小黄 · 发表于 2011-10-14 09:31

10# 郭森房贷
1 O3 C. n/ J7 U1 w& d& Q3 n' q" I1 f' N/ z' x: A
3 q6 y2 s; \; v% t6 d1 L
原以为很轻松的论坛，没想到让版主搞得成了说脏话的场所，转贴了一个文章，楼主张嘴就“绝对是傻B写的。”http://www.edmontonchina.cn/viewthread.php?tid=466187 惹着谁了，我自己有房子，年初 ...
7 b) [) O: _' K! B! O9 }Scottl 发表于 2011-10-13 20:41

良药苦口，忠言逆耳。如果是你和我辩论，我当然不会这么说。但你那篇本来就是转帖，是贷款从业人员拿出来糊弄人的。

我说话比较直，没办法。但常上本版的网友应该知道，听了我的建议的，都省了几千上万的利息。那些多付出几千上万的人们，再回过头来看那些模棱两可半真不假的“专业分析”，应该会认同我的评价。

关于美国利息，和加拿大不同。加拿大的5年并非真正的锁定。5年很短，等你刚要得到好处了，就该renew了。这也就是为何我说新推出的4年锁定也算不上什么大敌偶；第5年怎么办？而美国的锁定是15年到30年的。如果是美国，现在我绝对会建议你使用15年锁定。

小黄 · 发表于 2011-10-14 09:43

1# 郭森房贷
$ Y) U; H- a3 c0 U谢谢分享。我觉得事情没这么简单。浮动不能肯定好过固定。就算大家水平很高，能预测2年之内的利率，3年，4年，5年内就很难了。就象07年时不知道会有09年会有这么大的经济危机，利率能降这么低，很多选 ...
9 z; e2 V9 e3 h5 mram 发表于 2011-10-13 20:54

你这里有两个误区：
1）我没有说过浮动永远比固定好。我前面举了汽车保险的例子。汽车一旦出事，损失是巨大的，所以你必须保险。但贷款，一旦固定好于浮动，浮动的损失并不大，不值得用更大的金额去“保险”。

2）选浮动并不是赌经济危机和降息。没有经济危机，也是浮动好。浮动的优势来源于信息不对称。如果所有人都足够清楚浮动或固定贷款怎么回事，那么选什么确实很难说。但现在并非如此，多数人盲目的选择固定，以追求一种虚假的安全感，和加拿大人盲目追求官办医疗，大清遗老不肯剪辫子一样。那么浮动的优势就是看破的人赚看不破的人的钱。

Spring10 · 发表于 2011-10-14 15:13

还可以这么考虑：选固定，图个五年内的安心，管他升还是降；选浮动，有点投机心理，最好不涨或者慢涨，考验心理承受能力。

其实，如果我挣高薪，我就闭眼随便选一个，反正现在都很低。

黑蛋 · 发表于 2011-11-16 12:13

有人知道80s到底发生什么了？利率会高到那个地步？

JZ9633 · 发表于 2011-11-16 14:23

有人知道80s到底发生什么了？利率会高到那个地步？7 u3 Y/ s% q3 L8 h
黑蛋发表于 2011-11-16 12:13

原油高台跳水, 石油城一夜之间变成鬼城.
而今的底特律是当时80s的写照.

tftang99 · 发表于 2011-11-16 19:06

2# 小黄

WST · 发表于 2011-11-17 10:02

根据我的经验，无人能准确预测将来。因此，多得不如现得，选择最低利率为佳。目前最低利率为1-2年固定，应该是最佳选择。

小黄 · 发表于 2011-11-17 16:53

原油高台跳水, 石油城一夜之间变成鬼城.
, J/ _" a' M) D7 l; D% [$ \而今的底特律是当时80s的写照.
8 V/ l5 E' h* J! jJZ9633 发表于 2011-11-16 14:23

1）油价下降是加息的结果，并不是成因。
2）拿底特律比石油城不恰当。底特律是彻底败给外国竞争，失去的不可能恢复，人口大幅下降。石油城只是周期性而已，人口还在上升。

80年代利率高的根源还在于60年代。首先是二战重建告一段落，社会阶级要进一步分化，就需要纸币。然后还有越战花钱。所以美国就印了很多钱。1970年，美元从55％黄金储备，降至22％（http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_Shock），政府宣布终结美元和黄金挂钩。从此美国印钱不再有顾忌。最直接的影响就是随之而来的石油危机，本来是政治事件引起的，但实际上政治危机解决以后，油价也并没有降下来。本来就是纸换油，纸方只管印，油方理所当然越要越多。

根者油价上涨的是物价，通货膨胀严重，只有靠升高利率来平衡。所以利率也越来越高。油价是1980年达到高点39美元，利率是1982年达到大约20％，从通涨形成到抑制成功大约是20年时间。

每一个经济周期都有相同的地方，也有不同的地方。这10年美国又进入大规模印钱状态，按理说早就应该进入通涨和升息阶段。但由于中国提供了大量廉价商品，压低了通涨，所以我看不出美国有任何加息的迹象。政府总是印钱的时候超前，该加息确是能拖后就拖后。所以现在就算要升息也是要10几20几年才能升上去，完全没有必要忧虑利息上涨。尤其当固定利息贷款只能锁5年，就只有成本，而缺少保护了。

木子 · 发表于 2011-11-21 00:02

本人非常欣赏黄教授的说话风格。直接了当，观点鲜明，论据充足，最主要是针对加拿大edmonton的具体情况，而不是泛泛而谈。最讨厌某些专业人员，说话高深摸策，好象故意不把话说透，最常说的一句话是：各有各的好处，看你自己的想法了。我想说，如果我知道选哪个，哪个可以少付几千，甚至上万，我还会问你么？作为专业人员应该和客户说实话，用外行人能听懂的话来解释，本人就是受害者，选固定还是浮动，想的头都要炸开了，遗憾的是两年前没有看到黄教授这么简单，直接的说明。最后选了固定，肠子都快悔青了，每年多付很多（不知道到底是多少），当再次问到某专业人员时，他居然说，也许最后两年你会赚回来，就现在这种经济形势，还说这种话，我无言以对，是edmonton 的专业人员水平太高，还是我们这些客户都是傻子？再次谢谢黄教授。

cats · 发表于 2012-3-4 13:34

论坛论坛，各抒己见，看的人会去分析，总有益处。谢谢！

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