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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.0 ]( j& `( s5 r& {6 d' n' C6 k7 y
/ @# g% H7 f8 Shttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html+ L( L- j8 @" M9 x2 x$ |4 K
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.
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! b5 O( ^5 V8 [4 y4 vPeople generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.& x0 v" P, O, z9 k7 K" l
0 B7 K* K6 g2 ~4 q# M% gIn fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.
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+ H3 E" ~$ _0 E3 f7 JWhy might it be a good time to sell?
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9 _$ ~ b) K7 N# G7 _) [" e+ E0 lAt about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.* q1 V2 L: X- W1 k: p
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"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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4 d% _' K, p( {"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
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% m' f5 b2 W1 @+ P4 c1 OThe profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.; K) I# ]! p6 C3 i1 M4 p
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.5 T" j% J2 }; F
' A6 h3 T o2 g RBurleton knows how they feel.
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9 d5 F- F E" ?0 O" Q) p& ~"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.: s6 m2 Y8 C/ g( M
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While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.5 ^$ f9 k+ n) B
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And Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.2 v" N% s0 c! a8 F0 W
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In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.
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8 N, x! e$ h) T: S8 }Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.
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- a% v5 g, f5 OThat is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.2 w; q6 M& \$ X u
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David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.. z7 r/ ^5 X- T2 O& \) I
6 k# K5 r$ |, J+ b" k"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.- h ]3 S: }' }5 |0 b9 b
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"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.9 T5 C9 g; y2 O8 Q* V$ c
8 ^6 P6 X: c' O# W; fBut then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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