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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.
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8 g/ M) d, j) ^' }( mhttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html* W3 O; }8 A( e
4 W# I# I% h0 l- {# h) c: IOTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.
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5 P- |; M) D* N2 _) u u EPeople generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.3 I Z4 [- v! S3 w
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In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.+ Z/ m# j! j1 ^2 R* H. b
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Why might it be a good time to sell?7 N- N: R6 J/ M2 Y0 E" Z
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.- @$ L4 f2 x; |2 Q+ E5 s2 _
: ^: H$ {: q9 H"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
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The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.9 W4 T4 |" _0 p5 f7 o/ M
! R* k, q5 T! a7 y1 V* mOf course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.; s8 \7 w J- t$ D) Z
8 \. Z- E: c5 C' p6 f1 \: |Burleton knows how they feel." M; F! O' C D
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.% X$ w5 O& b+ r2 r
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While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.4 {* z$ w$ u" x
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.) R% T% K- N w. X/ ~
- n' v: a& M! K8 WAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.7 _* T5 {( }% w( n/ F) C; _/ _
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In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.
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* D" v) U Y3 Y$ Z2 p0 m" R" XMeanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.: P2 i8 f# P. y0 C
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David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.
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" }7 |' B# n; I5 F/ \"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.
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"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."9 }5 M6 x) d0 h- C( C9 h
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.
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But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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