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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.& n, T/ I2 m. X5 R
" q* F% D" y% Phttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html6 D8 e! H1 l7 {; ]+ e% A# F
) z0 [. l" K0 G! _9 WOTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.0 ~9 E) Q8 U' ~ l4 i& B( m2 o
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.) t/ A8 \) e, N- P S
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In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.3 u) J. i( w! ~' D. o8 p
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Why might it be a good time to sell?: [+ F* J% q# ]
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.- I4 B+ j) p6 M* b. p9 u2 O; S
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"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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" R$ Y0 R$ }0 z! Z"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.1 p( _' ]- p. c# ~, Y: h$ D
6 \# J1 n( P* X |$ {& Y. ZThe profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.
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* |. h( m. f2 O( L4 M4 ROf course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.0 m: e' r! U4 S. o# @4 h1 [/ s
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Burleton knows how they feel.
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.
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While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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3 e3 r9 { n* k- f0 qAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.# R* ~5 m6 e8 [ V! W- L7 O
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In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.
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6 J y8 |" t( e. X T! EMeanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world., g* N* X v# D+ E# \. } W6 s+ \
0 _. d# x3 [# N4 l: U& CThat is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.
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& Y* k0 i, P1 W+ ZDavid Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.* t+ S8 U. n, t
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"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.' c5 r V, q5 P3 j5 o
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"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."$ t' W4 w! X- D2 a: G( G# u$ j
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act., i8 x' i/ y) Q
+ |& }. s0 d! {; _+ PBut then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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