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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.
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http://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html, K" c/ x0 l# X# h
+ R( P9 P: S6 l7 @- aOTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.& g" A$ w& ~1 A1 [( x6 G
7 y( E# O& ?3 O0 R3 PPeople generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.
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Q- k$ _' V3 iIn fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.
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Why might it be a good time to sell?* X1 Y3 ]8 r9 r" s$ ?! e0 k5 e
1 b! W; a a* p; f- i1 W oAt about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.$ b9 a: u0 C' P) L6 ?: s1 {: M4 ~% U$ \
* m1 S% f+ ^1 Q3 W) q"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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& U' e9 O. k, }"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
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' c2 S0 q6 @9 Y+ B0 Y+ }- w" T" kThe profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.& Z* Y. a8 b8 z, ~ U% ^# ^
J$ H6 a- w- B, o; oOf course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.1 i1 Z" R7 K& o, x
6 N# ]: Q6 b, J0 xBurleton knows how they feel.
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.% u! }+ b- c4 ^: m0 u9 n& l3 }
5 U0 ~7 G7 D) _+ w1 TWhile there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way." M- i9 |5 ?! E; `4 G7 x
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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And Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.0 a. @1 S+ s3 O# C
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In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.
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Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world./ z+ R4 k& _/ X% H% |. a& x* t
: D- J. ^* p- t: ^) QThat is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.' y6 p" ~& |% J/ P( T
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David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.* y+ q& O( }) E: s- ~! C4 P
/ [# N/ y' t% R"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.
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"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."/ m- J9 e9 |' I; T
- b$ x% i+ H. X$ Q% O% nThe market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.
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But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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