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http://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.
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In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.; j$ e; |5 R. x) r& M) a6 A' {5 h/ {
( E5 H3 M k2 N6 eWhy might it be a good time to sell?
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.
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"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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z! A3 ?, `4 j! L0 f3 j"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.7 E3 \/ X! L$ ]& I4 t
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The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.
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9 M2 E Y$ \& U ]Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.
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/ [, i7 f' G! ]+ `6 BBurleton knows how they feel.
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6 f5 z" {" m) M) T$ j"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.
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3 j, H+ H$ ]! V( v( q3 KWhile there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.; t2 ~4 A/ r- C0 c% p6 c
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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2 ~ ~. E; o$ H2 CAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.6 \' J, A! p$ ]* e# n
R) V) x g8 r; `In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home. G' W; \; A" e4 F
2 Y) w* B! }) v# j3 Y; c3 y$ QMeanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world./ s6 o9 w) g' s+ Z' R9 _0 t- A) m
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.+ m' w' j; D1 `" T+ I |# t% @
+ D% ^# H8 u" T4 q% S# x/ U) ^David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.3 m7 C' |7 I l9 H
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"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.
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3 G9 l5 _7 {. o& N"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."+ f( m! d' X" t/ n# e
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.
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But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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