加拿大楼价快见顶卖屋趁早未来数年料跌25%

Magrath · 发表于 2012-5-13 19:54

http://www.youvancity.com//news/news.aspx?NewsID=40554

加拿大楼价快见顶卖屋趁早未来数年料跌25%

分析家说﹐加拿大屋价接近顶峰﹐国民不妨考虑﹐在屋价下跌前出售房產﹐锁定升值带来的利润。

全国平均屋价现在达到37万元﹐温哥华则高至近80万元﹐都在创纪录的水平。很多观察家相信﹐屋价早应向下调整10%到25%﹐在几个最热市场﹐降幅可能更大。

道明银行(TD Bank)高级经济师伯利顿(Derek Burleton)说﹕「屋价对收入、屋价对租金的比率﹐所有指标都在发出警示信号。如果仅是以获利為目的﹐现在是时机出售。」

卖房所得利润﹐可用来储蓄、还债、进行传统投资﹐或到房价更低的市场购买更多房產。

当然﹐对多数国民来说﹐不会卖掉家庭住宅﹐租房或迁到便宜的地產市场居住。伯利顿说﹕「即使屋价升了﹐我也不会现在卖掉我的住宅。因為我享受现在的住处﹐搬家很痛苦。」

儘管不能保证房价会调整﹐观察家说﹐其他信号也在显示这个可能。

国内的业主数目逼近70%的纪录水平﹐需求预计将下降﹐多年来可能首次进入买家市场。

中央银行(Bank of Canada)行长简尼(Mark Carney)上月警告说﹐他准备调高利率﹐联邦也收紧借贷规则﹐或触发房地產下挫。

在市场术语中﹐高峰时卖房等于「锁定」过去10年升值带来的利润﹐如果是主要的居所﹐还可免付税款。同时﹐自2000年以来﹐住宅升值速度远远高过于屋租﹐屋价对租金的比率超过歷史正常水平﹐在发达国家中在最高之列。

这是显示屋价估值过高的有力指标﹐而且租房比买屋便宜。

资本经济(Capital Economics)研究顾问公司的马达尼(David Madani)预计﹐未来数年屋价将下跌25%。他提醒说﹐卖屋好像卖股票一样﹐时机很重要﹐现在是行动的时候。

架鸡棚 · 发表于 2012-5-13 20:20

房价跟就业挂钩。亚省经济和油价挂钩。按现在的油价趋势，楼主给预测一下屯里的房价走势。

CASH$$$ · 发表于 2012-5-13 21:01

该买不起的还是买不起，楼上那位，是不是啊？

架鸡棚 · 发表于 2012-5-14 02:22

本帖最后由架鸡棚于 2012-5-14 03:27 编辑

CASH$$$ 发表于 2012-5-13 22:01 . U' y1 a/ Y/ f+ y0 F, t2 l$ s( O) O
该买不起的还是买不起，楼上那位，是不是啊？

有工作, 首付5%就行. 偶还没听说屯里有哪个国人买不起房子. 相反, 手里有两三套房子的, 大有人在.

按现在的利率, 买30万的独立耗思, 和租三居的楼房, 开销上没啥区别.

CASH$$$ · 发表于 2012-5-14 20:54

30W怕都是小鬼屋吧，楼上你有鸡冻鬼屋？

catty · 发表于 2012-5-15 10:11

今天新闻说温哥华已经比去年跌了9.8%

小黄 · 发表于 2012-5-15 18:32

catty 发表于 2012-5-15 10:11
& |; X5 J* P# B今天新闻说温哥华已经比去年跌了9.8%

请给出数据援引。

浪里黑条 · 发表于 2012-5-16 07:15

我最保守估计，到2013年初，房价对比现在，要下跌至少25%。

执迷不悔 · 发表于 2012-5-16 07:23

catty · 发表于 2012-5-16 08:30

小黄发表于 2012-5-15 19:32
6 l) Y& ~6 z% s+ I请给出数据援引。

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ ... me-sales-april.html

Prices in the Greater Vancouver area came in 9.8 per cent below the level of a year ago, a fourth contraction in home prices in five months and the largest drop the region has seen since the recession, TD Bank economist Diana Petramala noted.

iamnini · 发表于 2012-5-17 13:22

看来几年后我买房的时候是相当的实惠啊哈哈

OEM · 发表于 2012-5-17 21:57

希望分析家们能领会黑条的保守批评.

健康营养站 · 发表于 2012-5-17 22:34

这针对投资而已.

kaixin123 · 发表于 2012-5-17 23:04

Calgary real estate sales growth leads country - Increase of 30.3%

Calgary is poised to regain its place as Canada's hottest housing market after new data showed the city last month had the country's highest year over year MLS sales growth.

The Canadian Real Estate Association, in a report released Tuesday, said the city's 2,720 MLS sales in April were up 30 per cent from a year ago. Nationally, sales grew 11.5 per cent from April 2011."

Calgary is quietly becoming a market to watch," said BMO Capital Markets economist Robert Kavcic, noting sales are above the 10-year average for the first time in about three years.While sales are soaring, prices have shown more modest gains, however. CREA's April survey showed the average MLS sale price in Calgary rose 0.7 per cent to $414,932, compared with 0.9 per cent across Canada."

Prices have yet to gain much momentum, but supply conditions are tightening rapidly across Alberta," Kavcic said."If oil prices remain high enough to continue supporting strong economic growth and migration flows, Calgary could again become Canada's real estate hot spot in short order."

Robert Hogue, senior economist with RBC Economics, said April was the third consecutive "outsized" increase in Calgary, a "clear indication that this market is finally taking flight."New listings in Calgary increased by 4.4 per cent from last year, to 4,370. Throughout Canada, new listings rose by 4.9 per cent to 89,739.

In Alberta, sales rose by 23.5 per cent to 6,191, new listings increased by 2.4 per cent to 10,718 units and the average sale price was up 1.9 per cent to $365,830.

"A number of Canadian housing market trends in April remained intact from the previous month," said Wayne Moen, president of CREA."

Trends in Vancouver and Toronto continue to diverge. These two housing markets have an obvious influence on national statistics. "In Toronto, sales of 10,350 in April were up 14.5 per cent from last year and the average sale price rose by 8.4 per cent to $517,556. Sales in Vancouver declined 13 per cent and the average price dropped by almost 10 per cent to $735,315."

It bears repeating that the national average price was skewed higher last spring by record level high-end home sales in Vancouver's priciest neighbourhoods, and that a replay of this phenomenon was not expected this year," said Gregory Klump, chief economist of CREA.

Klump cautioned against reading too much into the national sales price numbers."Netting Vancouver out of the national average price calculation yields a 4.9 per cent year-on-year gain," he said.

"Netting Toronto out . . . while leaving Vancouver in, produces a 2.2 per cent year-on-year decline. Netting out both Vancouver and Toronto results in a 3.1 per cent increase . . . on balance, this points to modest price growth amid balanced market conditions in much of the rest of Canada."Diana Petramala, economist with TD Economics, said Canadian housing demand is likely to remain supported by a continued low interest rate environment through 2012."

Still, growth in home prices and sales will likely be limited as the overvaluation has led to a deterioration in affordability," Petramala said."We anticipate the Canadian housing market to remain relatively flat in the coming year with home prices to rise just another two per cent this year, following gains of seven per cent in each of the last two years."

小黄 · 发表于 2012-5-18 07:31

catty 发表于 2012-5-16 08:30 " r0 ^1 }: E2 f: l. ?' y* B; N3 _$ e
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/05/15/crea-home-sales-april.html
$ Y1 n- Y) V) `9 ]7 J9 F
6 v, ^7 z( Y0 R3 jPrices in the Great ...

谢谢。但这个连接我也看过，都是转贴数据。平均价下降不代表房价下降。要是有原始数据就好了。

kaixin123 · 发表于 2012-5-18 08:26

温哥华的房价下降一点也不奇怪，我觉得10%-30%都属正常。多伦多涨了8.4%倒是有点太强劲。
去掉多伦多、留下温哥华，全国跌2%；去掉温哥华、留下多伦多，全国涨4.9%；两个都去掉，全国涨3.1%。
总体上，成交量上升明显，价格小幅上扬。

kaixin123 · 发表于 2012-5-18 08:32

卡尔加里像样些房子走得很快。如果油价能挺在80元、甚至70元以上，我猜阿尔伯塔房价应该跌不到25%，最多24%。

songmuchang · 发表于 2012-5-18 09:36

kaixin123 发表于 2012-5-18 09:26 |8 F: k% Q, f4 t2 X- g
温哥华的房价下降一点也不奇怪，我觉得10%-30%都属正常。多伦多涨了8.4%倒是有点太强劲。
) }! n. u. o0 o, N5 {6 s去掉多伦多、留下 ...

Netting out both Vancouver and Toronto results in a 3.1 per cent increase . . . on balance, this points to modest price growth amid balanced market conditions in much of the rest of Canada.

---- Saying exclude Van and Tor, the rest of the country recorded 3.1% increase instead of 2% decrease.

newelec · 发表于 2012-5-18 18:05

全国最热的是在sk，regina火的很，比calgary，edmonton还牛，价格同比上年16%多，量同比27%多

架鸡棚 · 发表于 2012-5-20 09:01

本帖最后由架鸡棚于 2012-5-20 10:03 编辑

浪里黑条发表于 2012-5-16 08:15 . q f: U1 H2 ~# o8 Y. e g, p
我最保守估计，到2013年初，房价对比现在，要下跌至少25%。

偶最保守建议，您药不能停。呵呵。。。

summer_tina · 发表于 2012-5-20 09:59

就喜欢这样的帖子。。。等着降低房价，就可以买入了。。。。

JoyceAccSG · 发表于 2012-5-20 16:37

浪里黑条发表于 2012-5-16 07:15 . E) N2 V7 E1 ]6 A" T
我最保守估计，到2013年初，房价对比现在，要下跌至少25%。

你是指爱城吗？和你打赌怎样？

Zhujiaolian · 发表于 2012-5-20 16:58

梧桐树1 · 发表于 2012-5-20 20:11

房价怎么跌呀？现在东西都在涨价，房子跌太多不太合理吧。百分之二的牛奶4升的一桶，04年原来在舍夫卫卖二块多，现在差几分五块钱。五花肉去年五月份金发卖1•99每磅，七月份就涨成2•49每磅。其实平时都没有注意过物价，只是这两样给我的印象太深了。其余的东西可能都在涨，只是涨幅不是一下太大，我们也没注意。跟房子有关的人，也要养家糊口，如果生活成本提高了，建筑成本会降很多吗？

廿二月 · 发表于 2012-5-20 20:53

物价、、、、

收入、、、、

唉……

gdsds1 · 发表于 2012-5-20 22:11

本帖最后由 gdsds1 于 2012-5-20 23:12 编辑

请在楼价跌幅至百分之22左右时发帖提醒我们买房子。谢谢。

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加拿大楼价快见顶 卖屋趁早 未来数年料跌25%

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加拿大楼价快见顶卖屋趁早未来数年料跌25%