there is a difference between peony (SHAOYAO) and tree peony (MUDAN), let's assume you meant SHAOYAO which is pretty common in Canada. 4 l5 Y; J. F' `' j2 v& J4 Ffirst year no chance; 2nd year 50/50 (99% chance to bloom if you were in central china ); 3rd year 95% given that you treated it the right way.