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发表于 2012-8-14 00:55
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其实比饶毅更牛的回复是 Upenn 的 LAI JIANG
* Q( s; }& G" W/ H如果是中国长大的,英语能到这种程度真是很不简单。6 R: h4 t" x P( i% h1 H) I1 J6 @& q& U
" a- b5 z- ^2 r" v" W) Y3 X; Qhttp://www.sas.upenn.edu/rappegroup/htdocs/People/LJ.html! v0 E0 u( j# ~# z- l5 ]& H
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FROM LAI JIANG, Department of Chemistry, University of Pennsylvania* J9 Y6 [4 @8 P
" c E+ U; W/ k" k, J7 QIt is a shame to see Nature — which nearly all scientists, including myself7 o" O5 l7 t& c |7 `
, regard as one of the most prestigious and influential physical-science9 g, s+ h; j' Y/ [ j' o
magazines — publish a thinly veiled biased article like this. Granted, this
; u: |' T6 K2 ]is not a peer-reviewed scientific article and did not go through the5 t* O: K, X3 Y" e
scrutiny of picking referees. But to serve as a channel for the general8 B1 Y& x0 v" K
populace to be in touch with and appreciate science, the authors and editors
& c' W4 H* [7 n; tshould at least present the readers with facts within the proper context,
$ B* s$ U Y+ v, }( ~: i qwhich they blatantly failed to do.6 I, m5 t" _! @5 u6 Y5 _: Z
8 e9 B* \" n0 x; Y7 B1 h$ WFirst, to identify Ye’s performance increase, Ewen Callaway compared her
7 v% m1 q5 Q# b2 n7 Z: l. W3 `; \Olympic 400-metre IM time with her performance at the World Championships in' ]' X ~1 z$ m- A
2011 (4:28.43 and 4:35.15, respectively) and concluded that she had an “
5 r0 j" I; h3 L7 _6 eanomalous” improvement of around 7 seconds (6.72 s). In fact, her previous. C1 x2 A, ^7 u4 T- }! e, C
personal best was 4:33.79 at the Asian Games in 2010. This leads to an! v& r; C. U& u; `
improvement of 5.38 seconds. In a sporting event in which 0.1 s can be the
7 M9 Y/ a* a$ U3 ndifference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason for 5.38 s to
: P' `+ a- Q6 m$ jbe treated as 7 s.
/ t4 F5 c9 Y; Z* |$ e3 y6 c3 c! E7 j5 D h4 e8 i
Second, as previously pointed out, Ye is only 16 years old and her body is
2 Q3 Z% ?" r. f/ h6 qstill developing. Bettering oneself by 5 seconds over two years may seem! | [4 z0 ^' Z6 g7 C! i
impossible for an adult swimmer, but it certainly happens among youngsters.
& |( \+ D: Y4 x9 M0 ~: x- z9 BAn interview with Australian gold medallist Ian Thorpe revealed that his 400
8 r' \2 j8 U5 I8 E$ b8 ?-metre freestyle time improved by 5 seconds between the ages of 15 and 16.: j9 S, w) B. }) a" Q9 @
For regular people, including Callaway, it may be hard to imagine what an
8 o" _& K) T- p! S. n4 T, z: \6 E3 Xelite swimmer can achieve as he or she matures and undergoes scientific and1 M$ Z* U( k, c
persistent training. But jumping to the conclusion that it is “anomalous”
8 Q. m& j' @$ A( vbased on ‘Oh that’s so tough I cannot imagine it is real’ is hardly sound.' G7 r( U1 J7 |) i5 b
* W- h4 i5 F2 X: ]# n: r
Third, to compare Ryan Lochte’s last 50 metres to Ye’s is a textbook
6 l7 M; S$ q; D; [/ o% \" uexample of ‘cherry-picking’ your data. Yes, Lochte was slower than Ye in
3 ~2 a9 T2 ~6 j, k \the last 50 metres, but Lochte had a huge lead in the first 300 metres, so+ Z4 U& x6 P. C* T% S( u
he chose not to push himself too hard and to conserve his energy for later* F9 u5 ]6 s# f
events (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the ‘use one’s3 l/ c3 ^: ]' @7 i0 c
best efforts to win a match’ requirement that the Badminton World! e9 c2 v7 q% W. Q9 o
Federation recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another4 y; f2 p1 P+ r1 }, N, t
topic worth discussing, though probably not in Nature). Ye, on the other% c: H( V; {2 q( L# Z4 H/ k$ h
hand, was trailing behind after the first 300 metres and relied on freestyle: W, h( x7 U7 u2 ~ c' d
, in which she has an edge, to win the race. Failing to mention this
' K$ H; e, p" b( Nstrategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 seconds
/ f% m8 \. F: O1 }' ]$ n+ _* Pfaster (4:05.18) than Ye overall, creates the illusion that a woman swam. b0 A, Y( X5 r' `) h) |
faster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Putting
, Z6 ~+ x% p7 K$ A2 Daside the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that0 k' s* r- A" u. ?9 |
implies to the reader that there is something fishy going on.
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! t0 M3 ^ N! J1 R8 iFourth is another example of cherry-picking. In the same event, there are
/ A0 r3 z4 B6 u; l) nfour male swimmers who swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 s) and Ye (28.93
0 s" C: v8 b! T$ s# Ys) in the final 50 metres: Kosuke Hagino (28.52 s), Michael Phelps (28.44 s$ I* G. o& H0 Z( B; T' f2 {/ y
), Yuya Horihata (27.87 s) and Thomas Fraser-Holmes (28.35 s). As it turns6 e: j5 h& _9 m/ S4 H$ y: R- ?2 R1 c
out, if we are just talking about the last 50 metres in a 400-metre IM,
# E: d: S, D* Z6 n0 Y5 D: FLochter is not the example I would have used if I were the author. What kind% y' D# A" w& b2 D5 d5 i; O
of scientific rigorousness is Callaway trying to demonstrate here? Is it7 f, P0 [, ]5 w) t5 V
logical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume that he leads in6 U- [1 ?" j* ~6 m# V( I
every split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science
/ z1 \& `( w) m, ] Kworks.' {( U1 v; w+ _9 j( l4 _. h
. Z8 I6 ?' E& }& r% \Fifth is the issue I oppose the most. Callaway quotes Ross Tucker and
& C7 o; ? I/ ^* K3 ?: J9 {5 Vimplies that a drug test cannot rule out the possibility of doping. Is this% }" D0 `" h$ Y2 {
kind of agnosticism what Nature really wants to teach its readers? By that+ [! R% ]5 x! [7 c8 K# G
standard, I estimate that at least half of the peer-reviewed scientific' s8 |! a) |' j- y
papers in Nature should be retracted. How can one convince the editors and
' g+ l/ ^, A9 W2 _+ @% A& B$ treviewers that their proposed theory works for every possible case? One
, Q1 C% p. J3 o- e* `cannot. One chooses to apply the theory to typical examples and to2 Y3 i( x# W6 n1 o2 g
demonstrate that in (hopefully) all scenarios considered, the theory works6 i2 z6 l9 R1 |
to a degree, and that that should warrant publication until a counterexample1 B2 M! r" L/ R& J
is found. I could imagine that Callaway has a sceptical mind, which is! u3 N" h9 H, W8 X- u# m, O# l5 q2 @& @
crucial to scientific thinking, but that would be put to better use if he
+ o4 U3 |- o# s5 A" Q1 D( Y3 V- ^wrote a peer-reviewed paper that discussed the odds of Ye doping on a highly5 p; m' Z0 E; ^$ t0 `; [
advanced, non-detectable drug that the Chinese have come up with in the' Q8 N) S) [& {/ Y
past 4 years (they obviously did not have it in Beijing, otherwise why not
2 L5 y( p; a6 g) }4 uuse it and woo the audience at home?), based on data and rational derivation- q$ X5 Y; o: E! K% A
. This article, however, can be interpreted as saying that all athletes are" G) `" h) S6 C* f
doping and the authorities are just not good enough to catch them. That may/ ?# A/ H* E' c
be true, logically, but definitely will not make the case if there is ever a
e9 x# X/ G# i2 P2 s, qhearing by the governing body for water sports, FINA, to determine if Ye# | M9 J9 o9 |6 p$ I
has doped. To ask whether it is possible to obtain a false negative in a6 b5 H- q+ `( Z; z; e
drug test looks like a rigged question to me. Of course it is possible:& I5 | H9 e5 O" N' ]
other than the athlete taking a drug that the test is not designed to detect
) z* S1 c: j+ M+ B0 j. K, anyone who has taken quantum 101 will tell you that everything is
2 {$ Q x+ d0 b; V- @0 w( Xprobabilistic in nature, and so there is a probability that the drug in an- t( U4 ]+ C( b9 g) J- {/ m
athlete’s system could tunnel out right at the moment of the test. A slight
8 w. H5 h: Q' n; N4 f8 ^chance it may be, but should we disregard all test results because of it?
+ G+ v5 L$ w. [- BLet’s be practical and reasonable, and accept that the World Anti-Doping
2 b: n3 i& T- w0 J$ R* |+ pagency (WADA) is competent at its job. Ye’s urine sample will be stored for
! ^7 j/ K) T; a9 A8 A Zeight years after the contest for future testing as technology advances. m& ^* {8 M, j* v5 l0 R% ]
Innocent until proven guilty, shouldn’t it be?* I$ `# }& u" k7 [2 D
0 N8 _+ ~1 `1 q; R0 h* MSixth, and the last point I would like to make, is that the out-of-
1 l' Z. B% G5 y: K: qcompetition drug test is already in effect, which Callaway failed to mention
; h. [ W* I- x9 Y5 r) T" t. As noted in the president of WADA’s press release, drug testing for
& y2 v$ s$ Y& i! ^0 P T/ E: `* b2 rOlympians began at least six months before the opening of the London
, O0 ]( `1 ]( J' f$ s: o: a$ T; aOlympics. Furthermore, 107 athletes have been banned from this Olympics for, ?* S7 _, X/ {3 N. w+ Q
doping. That may be the reason that “everyone will pass at the Olympic7 w! i1 \, ]1 \+ Q
games. Hardly anyone fails in competition testing” — those who did dope
/ L9 h i- f+ }6 h `' Y& Jhave already been caught and sanctioned. Callaway is free to suggest that a
) C: E C+ F' ~9 Z) f# p6 t" Qplayer could have doped beforehand and fooled the test at the game, but this
# }' [; w4 s) N" W5 Gpossibility is certainly ruled out for Ye.
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/ F# `+ a2 h5 XOver all, even though Callaway did not falsify any data, he did (
! V5 m% k+ A R2 n4 u3 [8 z- W) z5 Z- Y% ointentionally or not) cherry-pick data that, in my view, are far too
* B$ t! c/ T* Asuggestive to be fair and unbiased. If you want to cover a story of a) E. j) |; [$ g
suspected doping from a scientific point of view, be impartial and provide
5 _6 E. M8 l) L P; w8 V- {all the facts for the reader to judge. You are entitled to your- m7 F: ^0 D6 Z7 A% P T0 W( E" A0 Q
interpretation of the facts, and the expression thereof in your piece,! `0 V$ [4 z/ Y+ {
explicitly or otherwise, but showing only evidence that favours your
J2 s5 B. k' ?: d2 A2 p- Margument is hardly good science or journalism. Such an article in a journal/ M+ L3 M6 w5 \5 K( G
such as Nature is not an appropriate example of how scientific research or5 I& R( n* u( L* d; F! n
reporting should be done. |
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