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发表于 2012-8-14 00:55
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其实比饶毅更牛的回复是 Upenn 的 LAI JIANG
( e% q/ @% Z) I; Y$ @+ q, |如果是中国长大的,英语能到这种程度真是很不简单。
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http://www.sas.upenn.edu/rappegroup/htdocs/People/LJ.html& E" m$ Q7 M j/ D0 |( N- \+ \
: [8 z" [# P) y7 n- T) E7 j3 p, K& qFROM LAI JIANG, Department of Chemistry, University of Pennsylvania0 C* b3 Q: ?3 w9 d+ C# P
" O4 Z+ J& ~3 k1 tIt is a shame to see Nature — which nearly all scientists, including myself
( |1 `, z @% P: t! K, regard as one of the most prestigious and influential physical-science$ l& r" o* S: R5 u% u5 ~
magazines — publish a thinly veiled biased article like this. Granted, this
0 g N+ }* e5 v+ [, P' Pis not a peer-reviewed scientific article and did not go through the* b; z9 n0 `' Z0 H; x# \3 J7 y# B: L/ Z
scrutiny of picking referees. But to serve as a channel for the general* v" P& R5 x* q0 {
populace to be in touch with and appreciate science, the authors and editors
" l: M u; }- ~. m8 T5 ]should at least present the readers with facts within the proper context,6 O; o/ V% S6 C: R* P# a
which they blatantly failed to do.- M0 V3 r4 X V- }, r. [8 W
! n9 y. M2 O9 }" K6 F6 q/ i! MFirst, to identify Ye’s performance increase, Ewen Callaway compared her
1 z5 m% R6 t9 I* T1 `) o0 zOlympic 400-metre IM time with her performance at the World Championships in N; a4 R' n6 a4 j
2011 (4:28.43 and 4:35.15, respectively) and concluded that she had an “
: |: `$ g( y5 @" z( ~; U S- \ hanomalous” improvement of around 7 seconds (6.72 s). In fact, her previous
5 y/ q, Y9 \0 q' Xpersonal best was 4:33.79 at the Asian Games in 2010. This leads to an8 b7 `4 h* u, T N
improvement of 5.38 seconds. In a sporting event in which 0.1 s can be the
0 X4 @9 R8 W% z1 o/ Xdifference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason for 5.38 s to/ x# Z, s* w. A* |
be treated as 7 s.5 N+ o1 V( v V* @4 c% }; O) G
7 O$ ^) _4 m0 R6 [0 [8 U% \' d. E8 bSecond, as previously pointed out, Ye is only 16 years old and her body is/ a) Q+ ~0 F- P8 n% k
still developing. Bettering oneself by 5 seconds over two years may seem J: y5 y, L5 o# d
impossible for an adult swimmer, but it certainly happens among youngsters.
) u" {2 c. _1 S. K _9 uAn interview with Australian gold medallist Ian Thorpe revealed that his 400
4 n! v9 }/ V5 K7 c9 T7 T; l-metre freestyle time improved by 5 seconds between the ages of 15 and 16.; i* R7 F; `' ?5 Z8 y# y
For regular people, including Callaway, it may be hard to imagine what an9 O1 |: @6 G) w7 b& a1 E0 w
elite swimmer can achieve as he or she matures and undergoes scientific and5 a; m. [7 T& P3 ~, u+ U) d* T6 R# [
persistent training. But jumping to the conclusion that it is “anomalous”! R7 _+ {* ] K; G N: ]3 A
based on ‘Oh that’s so tough I cannot imagine it is real’ is hardly sound.
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6 {+ R2 E( B- B+ L' H* B. wThird, to compare Ryan Lochte’s last 50 metres to Ye’s is a textbook s1 D0 l0 H, G2 s$ t
example of ‘cherry-picking’ your data. Yes, Lochte was slower than Ye in3 ]6 N9 l7 ^. b7 m& M( `* y6 c
the last 50 metres, but Lochte had a huge lead in the first 300 metres, so% x" H8 Z' Q2 Q$ v" j! \
he chose not to push himself too hard and to conserve his energy for later
: s- g& p4 T: ]7 l# Revents (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the ‘use one’s9 }- r6 q# R+ N- B4 S( M$ ]
best efforts to win a match’ requirement that the Badminton World
( M3 Z0 u& }9 ]* c9 _Federation recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another% u/ K* |$ O s
topic worth discussing, though probably not in Nature). Ye, on the other( w3 d% R! L. I# G# B
hand, was trailing behind after the first 300 metres and relied on freestyle% G3 H. b% ?0 w1 B
, in which she has an edge, to win the race. Failing to mention this
! h% t4 B. z& r" astrategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 seconds- k y9 m9 u1 u# E8 r
faster (4:05.18) than Ye overall, creates the illusion that a woman swam
9 h; E" y9 c" ]& Y- hfaster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Putting4 A3 F h f3 z% n5 F
aside the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that4 Y) w+ F1 ~3 p4 P7 A# |
implies to the reader that there is something fishy going on.
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1 E- U+ [' `' A! N1 D, v6 I$ KFourth is another example of cherry-picking. In the same event, there are B5 f$ b" ]8 d$ z+ |
four male swimmers who swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 s) and Ye (28.939 @) q, k5 L2 n3 j8 S- l
s) in the final 50 metres: Kosuke Hagino (28.52 s), Michael Phelps (28.44 s3 i8 N5 P$ H8 P6 V& f4 S- o( W, r- m
), Yuya Horihata (27.87 s) and Thomas Fraser-Holmes (28.35 s). As it turns
. _ B) n8 H9 v* aout, if we are just talking about the last 50 metres in a 400-metre IM,
\0 l" h- |. Y+ ~7 wLochter is not the example I would have used if I were the author. What kind
3 O- |$ V% l& J5 Y# ~5 Aof scientific rigorousness is Callaway trying to demonstrate here? Is it5 {: A3 ^1 y7 m4 i4 y! K B& U
logical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume that he leads in
0 d* k/ c, j/ K! k9 f( zevery split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science* @( `& H( W5 q+ ~4 B8 Z Z
works.3 \! g5 Q2 P; d: \7 G3 Q# Q
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Fifth is the issue I oppose the most. Callaway quotes Ross Tucker and' s. w" C. v! ?( b& _4 y* ~" o. E/ e
implies that a drug test cannot rule out the possibility of doping. Is this- o W( }" j% i8 ?- x. D* B
kind of agnosticism what Nature really wants to teach its readers? By that
) x/ t+ Q# @. G: ?: {& H; O( Cstandard, I estimate that at least half of the peer-reviewed scientific4 U) q q3 e5 S. ]$ d! d
papers in Nature should be retracted. How can one convince the editors and4 b3 f) I X" A) O! Y
reviewers that their proposed theory works for every possible case? One. p) t. q( \0 Z/ v. Z, I9 W7 m
cannot. One chooses to apply the theory to typical examples and to/ H+ I; G' l e+ L o7 S1 s6 N. h
demonstrate that in (hopefully) all scenarios considered, the theory works+ p" B- t- ^, ]# ^$ @
to a degree, and that that should warrant publication until a counterexample
0 H$ ]$ n7 d( y. [' l, [3 ~3 |$ @is found. I could imagine that Callaway has a sceptical mind, which is
6 A) f$ d! A5 Q8 ]7 d( Ocrucial to scientific thinking, but that would be put to better use if he6 {8 {3 L* D- x0 d! X4 S
wrote a peer-reviewed paper that discussed the odds of Ye doping on a highly& W6 |$ I* d# ~9 i
advanced, non-detectable drug that the Chinese have come up with in the8 t6 Z m7 P+ L4 P
past 4 years (they obviously did not have it in Beijing, otherwise why not. j+ N! {( N3 |
use it and woo the audience at home?), based on data and rational derivation5 X: Y3 d F W1 C; v/ x h
. This article, however, can be interpreted as saying that all athletes are( p B/ `, c6 d6 D4 G
doping and the authorities are just not good enough to catch them. That may
9 }" X% |. @4 ~6 ~be true, logically, but definitely will not make the case if there is ever a
P; J0 l/ Z) J8 R; o$ o6 `0 ~* ohearing by the governing body for water sports, FINA, to determine if Ye1 m; t& G' E k% g
has doped. To ask whether it is possible to obtain a false negative in a
7 `+ P2 J6 u% S3 z+ w7 J# x3 tdrug test looks like a rigged question to me. Of course it is possible:
+ z* I) {. R7 Y, U5 dother than the athlete taking a drug that the test is not designed to detect; I# l6 j3 Q5 R, _
, anyone who has taken quantum 101 will tell you that everything is
: Z1 m! q3 S+ y2 S1 h/ }, kprobabilistic in nature, and so there is a probability that the drug in an# R* f0 O9 y5 O+ G4 o& e
athlete’s system could tunnel out right at the moment of the test. A slight/ [$ Z7 i- J7 D; c+ b) ^& o
chance it may be, but should we disregard all test results because of it?
* h3 @# z8 ? DLet’s be practical and reasonable, and accept that the World Anti-Doping. t6 y: i( D. ]4 b6 I$ X0 `' i
agency (WADA) is competent at its job. Ye’s urine sample will be stored for' w5 M# p8 c. n& N4 y' Y
eight years after the contest for future testing as technology advances.
4 n! A7 L! o i( E& B& _2 MInnocent until proven guilty, shouldn’t it be?
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9 E0 w4 }2 g$ r( q# S0 OSixth, and the last point I would like to make, is that the out-of-
4 m8 S4 e b0 X+ y5 ncompetition drug test is already in effect, which Callaway failed to mention$ n1 v) V7 e8 m9 t9 u2 x
. As noted in the president of WADA’s press release, drug testing for
7 \3 w. J F iOlympians began at least six months before the opening of the London
9 C# Q- _2 f+ Q+ ^8 F- C/ M: YOlympics. Furthermore, 107 athletes have been banned from this Olympics for5 V& V: e4 p; u0 K, o
doping. That may be the reason that “everyone will pass at the Olympic9 G: L0 Y4 _" B1 w1 ?$ O' g. [8 y
games. Hardly anyone fails in competition testing” — those who did dope K9 R/ d0 x2 K+ a3 x. q6 n1 N: B$ P
have already been caught and sanctioned. Callaway is free to suggest that a$ G: \' o: P: B4 Z. z
player could have doped beforehand and fooled the test at the game, but this
$ t* v% O3 F& G) X' e7 F- ?possibility is certainly ruled out for Ye.* h8 x- U- L% O& t
( k4 q7 x: j( c" ~7 FOver all, even though Callaway did not falsify any data, he did (
; K5 D( ^( D4 \1 kintentionally or not) cherry-pick data that, in my view, are far too
' i3 R3 `" \% Z# Q) J7 B( ksuggestive to be fair and unbiased. If you want to cover a story of a
1 a7 q1 j, z" t( w2 Z* dsuspected doping from a scientific point of view, be impartial and provide8 R6 C& [: K* o' l) q+ M
all the facts for the reader to judge. You are entitled to your
% f7 m. @# t2 M& v) X6 ^2 ?interpretation of the facts, and the expression thereof in your piece,
* q6 m c" }, c' F, j& S- \explicitly or otherwise, but showing only evidence that favours your4 v a; f4 \6 F$ M
argument is hardly good science or journalism. Such an article in a journal
" e- P) U6 N9 {8 w& c1 Isuch as Nature is not an appropriate example of how scientific research or( l1 n( h) b I, q8 c
reporting should be done. |
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