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发表于 2012-8-14 00:55
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其实比饶毅更牛的回复是 Upenn 的 LAI JIANG5 H' \/ `5 M" C
如果是中国长大的,英语能到这种程度真是很不简单。
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, N* @& W# }, I4 D2 h& ^% Vhttp://www.sas.upenn.edu/rappegroup/htdocs/People/LJ.html
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* f& e( a1 X6 i- j% {- OFROM LAI JIANG, Department of Chemistry, University of Pennsylvania
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' }$ _! D; s" G2 {It is a shame to see Nature — which nearly all scientists, including myself" K& w1 G: H! i {& }( Q5 ~
, regard as one of the most prestigious and influential physical-science, j: \$ R0 b" `7 K) T
magazines — publish a thinly veiled biased article like this. Granted, this+ n! N* g) Y: m& \8 D* b2 I
is not a peer-reviewed scientific article and did not go through the
; D2 Z1 H- s f5 ~scrutiny of picking referees. But to serve as a channel for the general9 _7 `5 l1 G: x* u$ O
populace to be in touch with and appreciate science, the authors and editors
7 w8 p2 d" c2 b* Dshould at least present the readers with facts within the proper context,
$ `$ E$ h% t) y* v7 ^6 c5 Swhich they blatantly failed to do.
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( j3 B/ U4 l) m1 b) t" NFirst, to identify Ye’s performance increase, Ewen Callaway compared her
3 D7 q) N: q( k9 f4 E* I. Y! QOlympic 400-metre IM time with her performance at the World Championships in/ a% I4 H1 T( D: a3 ~
2011 (4:28.43 and 4:35.15, respectively) and concluded that she had an “* H' p% d: c, o0 h8 n3 [+ y" L
anomalous” improvement of around 7 seconds (6.72 s). In fact, her previous
( ?, {! j1 @# F8 Wpersonal best was 4:33.79 at the Asian Games in 2010. This leads to an5 N7 w6 j2 r. s% B: [; P3 [
improvement of 5.38 seconds. In a sporting event in which 0.1 s can be the
6 N/ v$ B" g: U+ h" E8 Pdifference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason for 5.38 s to
' r0 ~2 E$ h! T! V. ?be treated as 7 s.
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3 p7 F& h2 W3 t4 l+ h3 D. NSecond, as previously pointed out, Ye is only 16 years old and her body is8 {5 G7 u8 k% Y# x& h, Y
still developing. Bettering oneself by 5 seconds over two years may seem$ E# ^5 t5 \5 m6 m' H/ g
impossible for an adult swimmer, but it certainly happens among youngsters.) q- z: ^. G: A" r
An interview with Australian gold medallist Ian Thorpe revealed that his 4000 g& p" w$ `- V8 ^4 E
-metre freestyle time improved by 5 seconds between the ages of 15 and 16.8 Z n+ p8 l+ e% D/ U* U
For regular people, including Callaway, it may be hard to imagine what an
+ R2 Q" m' V7 m' Uelite swimmer can achieve as he or she matures and undergoes scientific and
! p. d: p& ?2 } w' Fpersistent training. But jumping to the conclusion that it is “anomalous”
- l7 Z& u. A1 wbased on ‘Oh that’s so tough I cannot imagine it is real’ is hardly sound.1 I5 t( [) `/ h
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Third, to compare Ryan Lochte’s last 50 metres to Ye’s is a textbook4 l$ T" I r9 B9 |
example of ‘cherry-picking’ your data. Yes, Lochte was slower than Ye in
& j$ e8 y0 H) Xthe last 50 metres, but Lochte had a huge lead in the first 300 metres, so
- k- {7 r( D9 _. Xhe chose not to push himself too hard and to conserve his energy for later
, S. L6 ], G. oevents (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the ‘use one’s3 R. M3 g. g: K3 u1 ?* Y+ Z0 R
best efforts to win a match’ requirement that the Badminton World
) p: X% U" P! TFederation recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another( ?( B4 q; {% V+ x) h) E8 H. d. y$ C
topic worth discussing, though probably not in Nature). Ye, on the other& J8 U5 k% b% q$ ]) B3 ?" v9 g) ]% U
hand, was trailing behind after the first 300 metres and relied on freestyle# l9 b& S! ? f3 V7 v: d! t$ l
, in which she has an edge, to win the race. Failing to mention this
+ p0 Y5 {% Q+ u. X& q, \: M7 Hstrategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 seconds7 J, P8 A0 v( q; e& G
faster (4:05.18) than Ye overall, creates the illusion that a woman swam8 n/ V! _: ^% k3 Y9 Y$ n, A0 Z
faster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Putting
% [- J. V( g9 C9 \, A" [aside the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that
% g. A8 u" Z) v, s- ximplies to the reader that there is something fishy going on.) [% K+ v( y8 n8 N
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Fourth is another example of cherry-picking. In the same event, there are
# {" R, l$ g' \) x& U! o8 q4 Qfour male swimmers who swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 s) and Ye (28.93/ S- K6 t2 k( \( d6 j+ }
s) in the final 50 metres: Kosuke Hagino (28.52 s), Michael Phelps (28.44 s
3 w& i) A1 S, r8 n+ B), Yuya Horihata (27.87 s) and Thomas Fraser-Holmes (28.35 s). As it turns
7 J. i# r- S: }; S8 P" S& zout, if we are just talking about the last 50 metres in a 400-metre IM,* {3 k' l+ B2 P5 |
Lochter is not the example I would have used if I were the author. What kind
% z9 p; d$ K$ o9 d/ \1 ?of scientific rigorousness is Callaway trying to demonstrate here? Is it
, I; G: {2 A) Ulogical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume that he leads in2 i& F, t! J5 R
every split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science* G& D- _7 B8 ]6 u; B& R9 D& O
works.
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Fifth is the issue I oppose the most. Callaway quotes Ross Tucker and
2 I: u1 g$ m( `6 C. |' Eimplies that a drug test cannot rule out the possibility of doping. Is this
, v6 T5 I8 |; ykind of agnosticism what Nature really wants to teach its readers? By that
5 O; K) S+ }: v) o! C) qstandard, I estimate that at least half of the peer-reviewed scientific- N/ H) H' {. f' A- i
papers in Nature should be retracted. How can one convince the editors and
8 o0 G/ {& y7 U s; B4 j, treviewers that their proposed theory works for every possible case? One
3 z; W9 w8 q1 _cannot. One chooses to apply the theory to typical examples and to
' S a: w0 C6 Y% gdemonstrate that in (hopefully) all scenarios considered, the theory works) t0 u" P; l* N6 l
to a degree, and that that should warrant publication until a counterexample: e0 G, e6 A( \" | ~) i
is found. I could imagine that Callaway has a sceptical mind, which is2 h0 m' t: W s: {
crucial to scientific thinking, but that would be put to better use if he
& c) c; O% t# f0 B/ _1 M/ y7 xwrote a peer-reviewed paper that discussed the odds of Ye doping on a highly* V+ `; u( x; p5 v- W% r* ?
advanced, non-detectable drug that the Chinese have come up with in the5 C1 p, x' D- w) B# }
past 4 years (they obviously did not have it in Beijing, otherwise why not
& f$ @# t4 X) nuse it and woo the audience at home?), based on data and rational derivation
9 C/ w* [" T- Z; F% W% ^. This article, however, can be interpreted as saying that all athletes are
! m! a8 C8 ?: G/ y q! C: zdoping and the authorities are just not good enough to catch them. That may
) }6 V R8 M+ B6 a0 T A, Lbe true, logically, but definitely will not make the case if there is ever a
; ?3 B4 z: B9 ?) S- a9 @# ~, Lhearing by the governing body for water sports, FINA, to determine if Ye
% X; d& U) W1 Mhas doped. To ask whether it is possible to obtain a false negative in a
9 w& M6 O+ J+ z% ndrug test looks like a rigged question to me. Of course it is possible:7 z/ Q# a* m9 v8 ~# m, O ~
other than the athlete taking a drug that the test is not designed to detect
( V. m# o3 f& u: P8 Z/ O0 @, anyone who has taken quantum 101 will tell you that everything is
) {0 u7 L( A3 e& Q- O9 Mprobabilistic in nature, and so there is a probability that the drug in an
3 X m7 Q$ ~+ q9 M w+ r/ V; v8 @athlete’s system could tunnel out right at the moment of the test. A slight
6 Y R0 ~! }( `1 |chance it may be, but should we disregard all test results because of it?
$ Y. U5 D! ~* v' HLet’s be practical and reasonable, and accept that the World Anti-Doping
2 U* v& S% C1 ~: nagency (WADA) is competent at its job. Ye’s urine sample will be stored for. _; v I6 @( y
eight years after the contest for future testing as technology advances.
* ~, N- f: m ^Innocent until proven guilty, shouldn’t it be?! B' f! y6 [/ d
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Sixth, and the last point I would like to make, is that the out-of-
% K+ [# R/ K9 i4 U5 Rcompetition drug test is already in effect, which Callaway failed to mention
4 J1 h Q/ M V& t& P. As noted in the president of WADA’s press release, drug testing for
& z" U1 R* ^* K8 Q0 T6 XOlympians began at least six months before the opening of the London) k. F" ? \( m( l9 l2 _- W& H
Olympics. Furthermore, 107 athletes have been banned from this Olympics for( Z6 U) ]4 X) l7 S; B% }9 V& Z
doping. That may be the reason that “everyone will pass at the Olympic
, [/ ~4 q! k" O0 w4 jgames. Hardly anyone fails in competition testing” — those who did dope
y# o( O5 i" V4 A: |& [have already been caught and sanctioned. Callaway is free to suggest that a4 ], N8 J: m5 s! R
player could have doped beforehand and fooled the test at the game, but this
% G* ~+ I2 i+ J0 [5 b* M6 |0 Spossibility is certainly ruled out for Ye.
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& E2 w- j3 p( aOver all, even though Callaway did not falsify any data, he did (/ o1 L" S$ P, Z5 d3 R- Z0 V$ R
intentionally or not) cherry-pick data that, in my view, are far too
r6 ? R9 Z4 U0 j& I0 ^' ssuggestive to be fair and unbiased. If you want to cover a story of a, Z( B+ s5 t8 y0 i' |7 a. I. q
suspected doping from a scientific point of view, be impartial and provide
/ E! ?; e& h7 `) Dall the facts for the reader to judge. You are entitled to your
7 {8 f0 o: e, n5 [8 h8 Jinterpretation of the facts, and the expression thereof in your piece,8 y+ a* m0 e5 P8 T6 |0 ~
explicitly or otherwise, but showing only evidence that favours your
4 R& S& g, s( S, O+ Kargument is hardly good science or journalism. Such an article in a journal* p( n" \8 T0 {3 e$ v' ]
such as Nature is not an appropriate example of how scientific research or' r7 [& C& \& t! j# c6 i3 [6 y
reporting should be done. |
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