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发表于 2012-8-14 00:55
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其实比饶毅更牛的回复是 Upenn 的 LAI JIANG# |# F3 h0 g B# Q; N% }# a4 B: }
如果是中国长大的,英语能到这种程度真是很不简单。
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http://www.sas.upenn.edu/rappegroup/htdocs/People/LJ.html
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8 L5 T. {1 c3 {7 k w& ?FROM LAI JIANG, Department of Chemistry, University of Pennsylvania
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% ^# D" h R8 W. H' U; \& PIt is a shame to see Nature — which nearly all scientists, including myself; i: l! H" O0 E' S' e+ Y
, regard as one of the most prestigious and influential physical-science4 [: {% @9 h* @1 g5 r6 Y% W W
magazines — publish a thinly veiled biased article like this. Granted, this
* Q# q0 O5 M: h4 w' B2 o( s7 Yis not a peer-reviewed scientific article and did not go through the
/ R3 |- r2 n; c2 d# mscrutiny of picking referees. But to serve as a channel for the general
" E r& ~' j2 G5 a' n/ P+ @ {0 Rpopulace to be in touch with and appreciate science, the authors and editors- u6 ]' M6 W1 ?+ l* _! {( T
should at least present the readers with facts within the proper context,7 z4 {; D/ v0 _( w, h
which they blatantly failed to do.
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First, to identify Ye’s performance increase, Ewen Callaway compared her+ d, u7 \4 i: x5 d% J2 l+ }: ]
Olympic 400-metre IM time with her performance at the World Championships in- e- ^+ s% A6 Z9 ?
2011 (4:28.43 and 4:35.15, respectively) and concluded that she had an “$ D" e8 h* R$ h' R
anomalous” improvement of around 7 seconds (6.72 s). In fact, her previous
. M) f. e6 f* g$ V/ f/ `0 n9 dpersonal best was 4:33.79 at the Asian Games in 2010. This leads to an
' u R, r$ T3 m1 ximprovement of 5.38 seconds. In a sporting event in which 0.1 s can be the
; b" W i( |0 fdifference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason for 5.38 s to
0 R' J4 x3 B# @' ube treated as 7 s.
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7 i6 ^& o% B$ N2 N( ~5 bSecond, as previously pointed out, Ye is only 16 years old and her body is& g, U: E2 L( z% D3 ]
still developing. Bettering oneself by 5 seconds over two years may seem: T9 j5 s1 y5 Q4 q) A4 y1 ^4 O9 i
impossible for an adult swimmer, but it certainly happens among youngsters.
P0 c# E f2 ]+ `3 N3 wAn interview with Australian gold medallist Ian Thorpe revealed that his 400
. I' Q- o! H: N+ H+ N. m S3 X-metre freestyle time improved by 5 seconds between the ages of 15 and 16.
$ a3 P$ U4 S3 g n! N5 FFor regular people, including Callaway, it may be hard to imagine what an
0 c8 `% o( X' X1 v6 l% I: X X7 L; Pelite swimmer can achieve as he or she matures and undergoes scientific and" B2 l# X0 i6 g5 h4 x2 G
persistent training. But jumping to the conclusion that it is “anomalous”
! ~3 q1 {0 M- k: }0 abased on ‘Oh that’s so tough I cannot imagine it is real’ is hardly sound.' M, L, _1 S$ q& k; A. d. z @
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Third, to compare Ryan Lochte’s last 50 metres to Ye’s is a textbook
1 I' s ~ K& J. R) M L+ ~& _example of ‘cherry-picking’ your data. Yes, Lochte was slower than Ye in6 A( P* s2 U" D( W1 Y; ~4 ~8 |
the last 50 metres, but Lochte had a huge lead in the first 300 metres, so
2 d x! E j' L( ^' hhe chose not to push himself too hard and to conserve his energy for later
+ H6 \' d7 s% ?4 S9 v- B: n" W; o0 ievents (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the ‘use one’s
% g# O9 v- P# d- @best efforts to win a match’ requirement that the Badminton World/ ~7 n' x/ }1 Z. C% d$ `4 s s- z1 N7 a
Federation recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another2 C) @0 L/ b7 f1 d. i- U
topic worth discussing, though probably not in Nature). Ye, on the other% L! ]( |% f* f0 l4 S- G. a- i! A: n
hand, was trailing behind after the first 300 metres and relied on freestyle
- Y, T! B1 h$ J$ s5 I3 l' y. Z) h, in which she has an edge, to win the race. Failing to mention this
6 g8 K9 x9 l$ R; A0 w& a8 f6 W8 nstrategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 seconds
, D) W2 y/ w0 T) E$ pfaster (4:05.18) than Ye overall, creates the illusion that a woman swam1 O; Y& H0 `, H+ j q
faster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Putting
( g# G; G8 ^; Waside the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that! r$ \! n/ z2 B1 h8 L
implies to the reader that there is something fishy going on.
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Fourth is another example of cherry-picking. In the same event, there are. I# s/ z4 [% }
four male swimmers who swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 s) and Ye (28.93% L3 n8 T% S; M$ t" T% k0 o7 b6 ^
s) in the final 50 metres: Kosuke Hagino (28.52 s), Michael Phelps (28.44 s: B- M5 ~8 v% H# s: E4 E
), Yuya Horihata (27.87 s) and Thomas Fraser-Holmes (28.35 s). As it turns. D5 F1 S' Y j7 A" T3 y
out, if we are just talking about the last 50 metres in a 400-metre IM,9 @3 d9 g7 R2 c7 Q( J+ i
Lochter is not the example I would have used if I were the author. What kind
1 K5 j0 |# x7 H2 |6 T3 A2 V$ K5 Sof scientific rigorousness is Callaway trying to demonstrate here? Is it
2 U7 |! c2 Z( `! `4 d& ilogical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume that he leads in
% M+ X% P2 [/ O& n5 Wevery split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science
8 \( V2 `( d% T3 Dworks.
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# i" Z4 k: A5 z( W/ k: YFifth is the issue I oppose the most. Callaway quotes Ross Tucker and8 E l0 ?; I$ w1 G3 a
implies that a drug test cannot rule out the possibility of doping. Is this3 `4 g3 t" M, p2 J
kind of agnosticism what Nature really wants to teach its readers? By that7 ^! }5 g1 @* b i$ W0 r/ z& C
standard, I estimate that at least half of the peer-reviewed scientific
) ~) r% x0 R' a8 Ypapers in Nature should be retracted. How can one convince the editors and
% z$ r2 [. t: ]' b5 f% i% yreviewers that their proposed theory works for every possible case? One
# D- A" H) U/ z# Rcannot. One chooses to apply the theory to typical examples and to1 [& z# R/ S* x8 e5 |, Y; O' c
demonstrate that in (hopefully) all scenarios considered, the theory works
0 L. ^. c: M- {8 yto a degree, and that that should warrant publication until a counterexample
; S; S# O `: N; [& \/ b- Ais found. I could imagine that Callaway has a sceptical mind, which is
- b! z# k+ ~0 N3 q2 Acrucial to scientific thinking, but that would be put to better use if he$ {+ A% g) E0 U7 p' Y
wrote a peer-reviewed paper that discussed the odds of Ye doping on a highly
9 L4 a. b! D7 a+ L/ Hadvanced, non-detectable drug that the Chinese have come up with in the, p, r, p! a" ]8 u3 q4 Q
past 4 years (they obviously did not have it in Beijing, otherwise why not$ E- }' o* h' d4 ^, B/ p5 @: }
use it and woo the audience at home?), based on data and rational derivation
+ r" a7 {# C# X( ?2 s. This article, however, can be interpreted as saying that all athletes are7 y4 t- v' p4 I8 z7 {1 j- `# H
doping and the authorities are just not good enough to catch them. That may
2 z5 J+ r- v! jbe true, logically, but definitely will not make the case if there is ever a+ A9 Q7 C* f+ I0 K# k! c
hearing by the governing body for water sports, FINA, to determine if Ye, o. X) S0 S6 N$ ^1 K, ]
has doped. To ask whether it is possible to obtain a false negative in a; |' f: x0 A( h9 ?
drug test looks like a rigged question to me. Of course it is possible:- e* Z3 h S( |1 e" s; P
other than the athlete taking a drug that the test is not designed to detect5 ~+ r' N+ H/ Z4 }! ?
, anyone who has taken quantum 101 will tell you that everything is
- r( R/ g5 m' q5 g0 L: d- |probabilistic in nature, and so there is a probability that the drug in an
, W+ e& c5 [, D! B$ h: Cathlete’s system could tunnel out right at the moment of the test. A slight
, a7 R4 N9 o9 n7 L; z) a3 Rchance it may be, but should we disregard all test results because of it?
/ X8 m( [7 Y- U) V* a+ m. G9 gLet’s be practical and reasonable, and accept that the World Anti-Doping
. M& m# [9 g1 I! [ ~9 eagency (WADA) is competent at its job. Ye’s urine sample will be stored for' k ?3 I6 X: u
eight years after the contest for future testing as technology advances.$ R4 T0 X: O& G9 g
Innocent until proven guilty, shouldn’t it be?8 L$ O) K* `' g& f- V3 c
) E; ~; `/ }' H* Z3 R p4 ^Sixth, and the last point I would like to make, is that the out-of-$ ?) F3 O# d% X, I
competition drug test is already in effect, which Callaway failed to mention- X# t4 e f' {' N( t
. As noted in the president of WADA’s press release, drug testing for: n* O, o/ B! C4 C( w0 _
Olympians began at least six months before the opening of the London8 W7 ?+ B/ |6 w
Olympics. Furthermore, 107 athletes have been banned from this Olympics for
; D" R- ~' a9 H2 \doping. That may be the reason that “everyone will pass at the Olympic
, Y& {; r8 P" f- l' ggames. Hardly anyone fails in competition testing” — those who did dope0 Y. h, m, w: R; Y& V* e
have already been caught and sanctioned. Callaway is free to suggest that a
/ ]' i3 O% w4 g" ^9 k/ Yplayer could have doped beforehand and fooled the test at the game, but this7 E" t1 x! |* u0 X, g3 z
possibility is certainly ruled out for Ye.
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Over all, even though Callaway did not falsify any data, he did (# T+ ^- D8 M4 H1 j- X8 W
intentionally or not) cherry-pick data that, in my view, are far too
+ y5 b/ U) x" F; w4 _suggestive to be fair and unbiased. If you want to cover a story of a
! E# f O8 ^9 F# D1 lsuspected doping from a scientific point of view, be impartial and provide& Y% j4 e" |; m4 B$ Q$ T
all the facts for the reader to judge. You are entitled to your6 C% o/ z' [6 h* F* g0 a
interpretation of the facts, and the expression thereof in your piece,
2 ^; u7 S& T, w7 @1 f* }' Mexplicitly or otherwise, but showing only evidence that favours your
: Y9 `1 S) ^4 h: Gargument is hardly good science or journalism. Such an article in a journal
- J' U: a/ e- d5 o4 k" `7 csuch as Nature is not an appropriate example of how scientific research or
1 H; A( m( ~ A# \; rreporting should be done. |
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