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发表于 2012-8-14 00:55
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其实比饶毅更牛的回复是 Upenn 的 LAI JIANG. s( o- e* o2 ]* Y5 u) x, R
如果是中国长大的,英语能到这种程度真是很不简单。
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" Y* X4 }( ^3 u! u& ^http://www.sas.upenn.edu/rappegroup/htdocs/People/LJ.html |& T% c! L3 q* C1 G8 h
) A6 j9 u @" O' S' i6 _' YFROM LAI JIANG, Department of Chemistry, University of Pennsylvania
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' C. o; @- I. y' i" }4 EIt is a shame to see Nature — which nearly all scientists, including myself
. I/ D# i$ B% Q* o* w# F, regard as one of the most prestigious and influential physical-science
) o1 B: g5 m9 P2 K" n9 h) wmagazines — publish a thinly veiled biased article like this. Granted, this+ h1 ~9 }, V( I6 D. B, {
is not a peer-reviewed scientific article and did not go through the
" {! h" @3 j/ F' x4 ?: X! sscrutiny of picking referees. But to serve as a channel for the general
4 z- B7 e9 a( }' q+ {# P8 Spopulace to be in touch with and appreciate science, the authors and editors
7 Z U/ [2 [$ Lshould at least present the readers with facts within the proper context,
' O4 `* S; i. u5 \9 N, e( f. [which they blatantly failed to do.
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" Q; @$ R" A. q( [. {First, to identify Ye’s performance increase, Ewen Callaway compared her" M* G- ]) x6 z u. v( o- W) @
Olympic 400-metre IM time with her performance at the World Championships in X, ^ x h0 e, N1 s
2011 (4:28.43 and 4:35.15, respectively) and concluded that she had an “
0 q0 M+ C* e3 q# i" W! kanomalous” improvement of around 7 seconds (6.72 s). In fact, her previous
3 K6 n0 g: M; K+ t7 m6 Dpersonal best was 4:33.79 at the Asian Games in 2010. This leads to an
4 M) H5 |0 q/ k% R( ?improvement of 5.38 seconds. In a sporting event in which 0.1 s can be the5 x1 P9 `: ^7 J- P
difference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason for 5.38 s to
6 J( I3 c2 y& m! v2 ]( p8 w) C6 v6 l* ?! Gbe treated as 7 s./ \9 s0 o1 a( j* M( O2 j
4 V' x5 ?0 e& GSecond, as previously pointed out, Ye is only 16 years old and her body is* d; J8 z% J! ?2 X: X1 i
still developing. Bettering oneself by 5 seconds over two years may seem9 n/ I- f" ]) N: ~( e
impossible for an adult swimmer, but it certainly happens among youngsters.5 w8 ]! V; A$ V! j. O
An interview with Australian gold medallist Ian Thorpe revealed that his 400: F8 y1 k" l+ O% t" ]4 d& D3 o
-metre freestyle time improved by 5 seconds between the ages of 15 and 16.3 J( }; l# T( d) c+ i
For regular people, including Callaway, it may be hard to imagine what an6 ~ J" b1 a; B: x& a. g8 b* ~' r- ?
elite swimmer can achieve as he or she matures and undergoes scientific and' H$ d# Q* c) S/ k* c* E
persistent training. But jumping to the conclusion that it is “anomalous”
4 M d+ O" q" @: l& j7 J0 Vbased on ‘Oh that’s so tough I cannot imagine it is real’ is hardly sound.' S7 s; E V( h5 \
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Third, to compare Ryan Lochte’s last 50 metres to Ye’s is a textbook1 q. D2 x& s5 h( s: u% C5 u
example of ‘cherry-picking’ your data. Yes, Lochte was slower than Ye in% X5 u/ Y* E4 Y! K& W8 v
the last 50 metres, but Lochte had a huge lead in the first 300 metres, so
9 L/ {; a- B \6 Qhe chose not to push himself too hard and to conserve his energy for later0 b9 k# V A' J3 M- R' M8 J
events (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the ‘use one’s
- c& l, p/ P* o4 N% Sbest efforts to win a match’ requirement that the Badminton World
9 n: {' [, ~ v, I; a* WFederation recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another
( ? N+ F$ | L- Etopic worth discussing, though probably not in Nature). Ye, on the other
- v: X7 |& _. P$ K# H) `, Z. R2 e4 G! S& }hand, was trailing behind after the first 300 metres and relied on freestyle: [( R) `2 s5 H7 O& d
, in which she has an edge, to win the race. Failing to mention this
2 F' J" G6 w3 k. bstrategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 seconds! R0 p/ e/ P: O( F' p
faster (4:05.18) than Ye overall, creates the illusion that a woman swam6 }8 F( U( z/ }3 I. v# F" T
faster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Putting, X' X9 t; `7 z" q5 C$ @
aside the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that% _" c2 }% w+ D T- f
implies to the reader that there is something fishy going on.
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Fourth is another example of cherry-picking. In the same event, there are$ W& Y9 |, o( d( [( l. B
four male swimmers who swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 s) and Ye (28.93
' \3 q) }/ z3 ps) in the final 50 metres: Kosuke Hagino (28.52 s), Michael Phelps (28.44 s
2 z+ o* c& g) W( @), Yuya Horihata (27.87 s) and Thomas Fraser-Holmes (28.35 s). As it turns/ X B6 \" \7 U; b
out, if we are just talking about the last 50 metres in a 400-metre IM,0 }3 y* j# S, A) D9 j' Y
Lochter is not the example I would have used if I were the author. What kind/ E$ N2 Q9 N1 b) f$ @- U
of scientific rigorousness is Callaway trying to demonstrate here? Is it. u1 ~, ` `$ T, V7 D
logical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume that he leads in
1 a- ?$ [. w u& Xevery split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science' v( [- H; | B7 ~. c+ j
works.9 z) Q, T8 `; \1 L& l
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Fifth is the issue I oppose the most. Callaway quotes Ross Tucker and2 o7 v2 \7 K: c
implies that a drug test cannot rule out the possibility of doping. Is this
, j$ p+ P3 T2 d6 i8 Xkind of agnosticism what Nature really wants to teach its readers? By that: S6 n0 Z/ x9 r, [' ?/ R/ O6 c3 `
standard, I estimate that at least half of the peer-reviewed scientific3 e4 f) R: d' Z( U
papers in Nature should be retracted. How can one convince the editors and
2 H. v% E/ r6 F; m% Ireviewers that their proposed theory works for every possible case? One* p0 x( i- o. l3 `3 Q. p+ z' E
cannot. One chooses to apply the theory to typical examples and to
5 ^- H3 y a# L; Xdemonstrate that in (hopefully) all scenarios considered, the theory works7 R% o) n: z# u, {+ N/ U, F8 A
to a degree, and that that should warrant publication until a counterexample" c+ T: n, v) X- r }
is found. I could imagine that Callaway has a sceptical mind, which is n* O0 c+ O( N' T; m
crucial to scientific thinking, but that would be put to better use if he
2 l, A$ L1 g; g2 o: iwrote a peer-reviewed paper that discussed the odds of Ye doping on a highly
/ R" l/ z! `, L# s! H; l$ C7 jadvanced, non-detectable drug that the Chinese have come up with in the
/ V+ ?$ d+ |( apast 4 years (they obviously did not have it in Beijing, otherwise why not3 y$ v' x* o7 L9 g
use it and woo the audience at home?), based on data and rational derivation
/ u+ A. e) V2 e: r9 Y; _. This article, however, can be interpreted as saying that all athletes are9 D1 H' L M9 h6 s/ v
doping and the authorities are just not good enough to catch them. That may. ]. U \* O. @1 P5 g/ X' L
be true, logically, but definitely will not make the case if there is ever a d% |) g& I4 k4 V& V+ v
hearing by the governing body for water sports, FINA, to determine if Ye
; ~% a/ M$ L' m% ^! O) b( d1 {has doped. To ask whether it is possible to obtain a false negative in a
. j1 R) V% |$ g: o. k2 K: A! j" s Fdrug test looks like a rigged question to me. Of course it is possible:
+ n9 N! H* n$ T. b. jother than the athlete taking a drug that the test is not designed to detect
* }3 z/ {& f7 d' C4 O: j3 K4 q9 ~1 l, anyone who has taken quantum 101 will tell you that everything is
. ?. x6 W0 a* S3 }probabilistic in nature, and so there is a probability that the drug in an8 \6 P! g* G2 y) P K: m
athlete’s system could tunnel out right at the moment of the test. A slight1 D' R% y! k5 F. b2 r, O
chance it may be, but should we disregard all test results because of it?% z' v" S% U. w* Q7 n; H
Let’s be practical and reasonable, and accept that the World Anti-Doping
+ B' M/ S7 x; V. `agency (WADA) is competent at its job. Ye’s urine sample will be stored for
6 w% b, T/ \- q- r( yeight years after the contest for future testing as technology advances.' H* e4 C( j6 U, q0 O
Innocent until proven guilty, shouldn’t it be?2 P, v1 R; a. ?- U9 T
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Sixth, and the last point I would like to make, is that the out-of- S1 w8 n4 k- B6 T
competition drug test is already in effect, which Callaway failed to mention. N/ y9 J2 _ z) X* N
. As noted in the president of WADA’s press release, drug testing for' k6 k: u2 D+ X7 i4 v4 \: q$ R' i
Olympians began at least six months before the opening of the London7 r& Y" b& j: n t; g: p0 u; l
Olympics. Furthermore, 107 athletes have been banned from this Olympics for
0 q- [1 c$ z) T/ y) b3 ?doping. That may be the reason that “everyone will pass at the Olympic
X+ M; }( t" d! K- [( _games. Hardly anyone fails in competition testing” — those who did dope; g* s7 l" M/ E; W3 _8 I
have already been caught and sanctioned. Callaway is free to suggest that a7 I& |8 _, N& m; q
player could have doped beforehand and fooled the test at the game, but this' ^$ ~8 S4 x. L# [* @2 o
possibility is certainly ruled out for Ye.
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. s$ I' _% I) V2 X/ @/ v( MOver all, even though Callaway did not falsify any data, he did (* a$ g2 L& X( Z; A& g+ k! t2 @
intentionally or not) cherry-pick data that, in my view, are far too9 g2 I6 U& B" C$ O+ j
suggestive to be fair and unbiased. If you want to cover a story of a# j: g$ Z7 x7 e# x- p2 l
suspected doping from a scientific point of view, be impartial and provide2 ^& m7 _, H N3 j* a
all the facts for the reader to judge. You are entitled to your5 N& v3 i4 c/ m. I& S2 B* W' e, L
interpretation of the facts, and the expression thereof in your piece,
8 y5 e! ]) U8 z$ `, w- hexplicitly or otherwise, but showing only evidence that favours your
, V ~2 T$ w. s8 l! Q6 h7 largument is hardly good science or journalism. Such an article in a journal
) t( c; i% i/ u; |7 W: L7 O$ J* Lsuch as Nature is not an appropriate example of how scientific research or( S2 M1 d' h! l+ ~! ?; a! o
reporting should be done. |
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