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发表于 2012-8-14 00:55
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其实比饶毅更牛的回复是 Upenn 的 LAI JIANG7 W( X* X- `: W& S$ L) r
如果是中国长大的,英语能到这种程度真是很不简单。
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http://www.sas.upenn.edu/rappegroup/htdocs/People/LJ.html
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( @5 v1 i2 |4 u6 H1 d# [3 jFROM LAI JIANG, Department of Chemistry, University of Pennsylvania) P% ] O+ o" I( Y' p
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It is a shame to see Nature — which nearly all scientists, including myself* } [1 w3 @1 n% y% }; J* D6 {
, regard as one of the most prestigious and influential physical-science, L' Q9 [' o+ @% B7 n$ K
magazines — publish a thinly veiled biased article like this. Granted, this7 b% \4 ?: _# }. I- m* U" K' f4 C
is not a peer-reviewed scientific article and did not go through the
3 T* p9 p& k7 p3 {scrutiny of picking referees. But to serve as a channel for the general, ^! `( m, K% _" E4 k
populace to be in touch with and appreciate science, the authors and editors! p5 B7 K& `, m/ D
should at least present the readers with facts within the proper context,; R& z4 r% H4 ]
which they blatantly failed to do.
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First, to identify Ye’s performance increase, Ewen Callaway compared her
$ l1 q4 ]3 I! X3 S) D: mOlympic 400-metre IM time with her performance at the World Championships in' b& b' o0 {, Q( F4 v
2011 (4:28.43 and 4:35.15, respectively) and concluded that she had an “
) p' V1 o4 Y0 y: }/ f. Janomalous” improvement of around 7 seconds (6.72 s). In fact, her previous
$ ?8 y ^* \) U* j2 }personal best was 4:33.79 at the Asian Games in 2010. This leads to an
4 e% J5 u9 B6 [( gimprovement of 5.38 seconds. In a sporting event in which 0.1 s can be the
1 @$ }4 {5 e( P; udifference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason for 5.38 s to0 i8 ^ x. |- P$ {9 ~ G
be treated as 7 s.+ B* t+ m* d' c
+ C, _' F( y! J+ O- LSecond, as previously pointed out, Ye is only 16 years old and her body is( v4 L7 A* N! |: X A$ i4 D7 @
still developing. Bettering oneself by 5 seconds over two years may seem
( }2 P& N! X% F) }) K( u# mimpossible for an adult swimmer, but it certainly happens among youngsters.
/ \0 ^9 ^$ J) MAn interview with Australian gold medallist Ian Thorpe revealed that his 400* a; y6 \, ]" x9 j9 p1 F ?; ?
-metre freestyle time improved by 5 seconds between the ages of 15 and 16./ |& j1 \% I# G" v9 X$ O! Z
For regular people, including Callaway, it may be hard to imagine what an& @6 [8 F- W! t6 x* V. |
elite swimmer can achieve as he or she matures and undergoes scientific and
7 c& }* W% B" ]" x: y. \: P) Upersistent training. But jumping to the conclusion that it is “anomalous”7 i* M3 k0 ^# T4 ~
based on ‘Oh that’s so tough I cannot imagine it is real’ is hardly sound.2 d' j+ {- o B9 o" K. R4 Y
# k H1 A6 Q* g2 E2 NThird, to compare Ryan Lochte’s last 50 metres to Ye’s is a textbook; `2 W I1 I% e
example of ‘cherry-picking’ your data. Yes, Lochte was slower than Ye in
, I, v8 I8 g% S1 J) O2 F2 V/ v P! hthe last 50 metres, but Lochte had a huge lead in the first 300 metres, so
3 ?8 |$ n8 ?/ X& i8 v; h. Nhe chose not to push himself too hard and to conserve his energy for later
: ]4 y1 l/ J1 O4 H' eevents (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the ‘use one’s
4 N3 C# v& d) V, E5 Z* u* K: T( Rbest efforts to win a match’ requirement that the Badminton World
' x6 [+ Z$ \6 `4 h2 R |# f pFederation recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another+ P5 I* d% y- `" Q% M$ i
topic worth discussing, though probably not in Nature). Ye, on the other [" X2 ^7 |" u4 B) F3 [/ }# T
hand, was trailing behind after the first 300 metres and relied on freestyle( b* H+ ]( J. Q, c
, in which she has an edge, to win the race. Failing to mention this5 Y, C, \( d8 ~% W( U6 _5 L
strategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 seconds* v$ Q3 q7 W' l0 e* ?9 ?! U. ^
faster (4:05.18) than Ye overall, creates the illusion that a woman swam
$ l1 }) Q% f8 A& G# y/ cfaster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Putting
' q, T. o8 _. easide the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that
( L$ d2 l% _& m3 q, m4 F( [- Z0 Pimplies to the reader that there is something fishy going on.
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; ]8 X7 Q( q1 j9 h$ tFourth is another example of cherry-picking. In the same event, there are( z, Z( j+ @" |) o3 m
four male swimmers who swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 s) and Ye (28.932 O( N7 F) V" Q7 F) c7 E @
s) in the final 50 metres: Kosuke Hagino (28.52 s), Michael Phelps (28.44 s
4 C* _6 [) Z P$ m! j( I), Yuya Horihata (27.87 s) and Thomas Fraser-Holmes (28.35 s). As it turns
: Y9 }; d% |; V# [: Gout, if we are just talking about the last 50 metres in a 400-metre IM,
9 U) X8 W( H# I$ q/ o9 }Lochter is not the example I would have used if I were the author. What kind
6 A- U2 F& u$ R s) pof scientific rigorousness is Callaway trying to demonstrate here? Is it
3 K( ] W1 a, W3 Y3 O4 ?2 glogical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume that he leads in
# l' a% L( U9 B' }5 |- I" Q8 O0 Severy split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science& Q$ Z0 t) s* ?, Z
works.* g+ D, w& }8 ?9 @
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Fifth is the issue I oppose the most. Callaway quotes Ross Tucker and
2 E6 ]) }) V! F: v/ Yimplies that a drug test cannot rule out the possibility of doping. Is this' M5 D! B$ r y- W. f6 _
kind of agnosticism what Nature really wants to teach its readers? By that
# G2 P; ~$ Z$ o) Astandard, I estimate that at least half of the peer-reviewed scientific+ Z0 g( Q* t/ c1 P4 Q- ?2 L- s
papers in Nature should be retracted. How can one convince the editors and0 A+ o0 E+ P9 t
reviewers that their proposed theory works for every possible case? One6 Q5 g5 f, T+ ~6 t
cannot. One chooses to apply the theory to typical examples and to* i) s8 C$ u: V: W* t
demonstrate that in (hopefully) all scenarios considered, the theory works3 _% R$ t0 T0 w
to a degree, and that that should warrant publication until a counterexample
% E N1 G8 p1 f% k* F9 @is found. I could imagine that Callaway has a sceptical mind, which is
" ~/ r( [- V" |% r; |( Ycrucial to scientific thinking, but that would be put to better use if he
t. P* H: ]* r6 Rwrote a peer-reviewed paper that discussed the odds of Ye doping on a highly' ^- i% k H# ?
advanced, non-detectable drug that the Chinese have come up with in the' x$ {9 ^% `+ p. ?5 H% r0 d0 {
past 4 years (they obviously did not have it in Beijing, otherwise why not' k) U8 m- y" w: |' [6 ?' P
use it and woo the audience at home?), based on data and rational derivation4 W h' q6 D0 j: R, B% \
. This article, however, can be interpreted as saying that all athletes are4 H( ?/ _% ^1 K1 I3 R* }8 W( {
doping and the authorities are just not good enough to catch them. That may
# ]5 c8 C/ | O- g- `5 J1 H4 Tbe true, logically, but definitely will not make the case if there is ever a
% \6 H! E6 E- s* {% [, U. Ohearing by the governing body for water sports, FINA, to determine if Ye
]7 v4 a& C* Q% Jhas doped. To ask whether it is possible to obtain a false negative in a: \5 {* a+ o! a2 _/ m, n5 ~
drug test looks like a rigged question to me. Of course it is possible:
2 b1 ~$ T( l" }other than the athlete taking a drug that the test is not designed to detect
7 j3 j0 V- I; u( s: d: |" G, anyone who has taken quantum 101 will tell you that everything is
/ _4 `! j. Z; P( }% Kprobabilistic in nature, and so there is a probability that the drug in an; z+ g0 G& O+ c
athlete’s system could tunnel out right at the moment of the test. A slight7 a! |, O W* W; x% T# n
chance it may be, but should we disregard all test results because of it?
U: B, C r! J5 NLet’s be practical and reasonable, and accept that the World Anti-Doping
5 y/ h5 a1 d. ]2 iagency (WADA) is competent at its job. Ye’s urine sample will be stored for$ O+ {* \: U9 Y
eight years after the contest for future testing as technology advances.
- m1 A4 v, x4 \( }& [# xInnocent until proven guilty, shouldn’t it be?" b( r2 D, b, p3 m: b" p% f4 h C6 W
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Sixth, and the last point I would like to make, is that the out-of-
* Y* N z6 K( m9 l( V" t ncompetition drug test is already in effect, which Callaway failed to mention+ N% M% Q; e s2 P3 F8 o
. As noted in the president of WADA’s press release, drug testing for
( A6 k% E. {* I7 z: o/ nOlympians began at least six months before the opening of the London
; b8 t$ T# _0 B; ?# z% s0 _8 |. KOlympics. Furthermore, 107 athletes have been banned from this Olympics for
& Z5 G" O, G6 z' Gdoping. That may be the reason that “everyone will pass at the Olympic! E; t E/ u) U* k" F$ ~
games. Hardly anyone fails in competition testing” — those who did dope
6 s) K5 f/ [7 f3 ^* Rhave already been caught and sanctioned. Callaway is free to suggest that a
) a0 M% Q+ H6 }% d4 Z0 dplayer could have doped beforehand and fooled the test at the game, but this( H. j& p! _: A; r2 e( Q
possibility is certainly ruled out for Ye.
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( H/ E# w) m+ jOver all, even though Callaway did not falsify any data, he did (
9 _1 q( s0 C% g- j8 |7 m' G# f8 u( Q% mintentionally or not) cherry-pick data that, in my view, are far too0 s. s) p4 |* g* Q% z
suggestive to be fair and unbiased. If you want to cover a story of a
- z! ]7 g' n* I. _8 i0 Vsuspected doping from a scientific point of view, be impartial and provide& ~2 K5 H+ J4 X# \
all the facts for the reader to judge. You are entitled to your
4 a1 V! A# ?8 O) |: u& i/ @interpretation of the facts, and the expression thereof in your piece,
8 T& P! v( w" [explicitly or otherwise, but showing only evidence that favours your
2 k2 `% R" q$ X8 V+ K7 margument is hardly good science or journalism. Such an article in a journal
+ ^: x5 o1 C/ S9 x- s+ Wsuch as Nature is not an appropriate example of how scientific research or9 `9 t+ s- X9 }& s$ y# p
reporting should be done. |
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