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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...* D5 A6 ~0 U" U9 l8 Y* M( S2 {
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The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very- O* F. y$ P: R8 X2 }
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it. Z7 F2 L8 m8 ^0 H& e/ |" r/ v. \
will be going.) d5 D) t3 d+ G
0 C* `1 j7 f. ZIt proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.5 _/ Z0 R/ i6 u4 m9 n4 b5 J% X/ ~
7 D; {" Z" z" m* \ X' s5 K: t' fThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
7 J; d- L+ @( @ H5 H( e& Msophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
8 w: K+ r0 c& \8 k, K9 l# `indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. & U U& n1 R9 { k! N, k
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
1 ~6 K9 b5 w, f: ~. D+ c8 \values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by6 u) E- M$ d9 ], p E" B
how much.3 o, E7 B* Y3 b8 O
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
6 q, n; v2 l: ^& L( w5 \* o( JOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
5 O# h" A/ J: I5 T) P# kstrong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest4 V9 G$ i: i3 H& I( J: A
findings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
9 ]3 ~( p& h' x4 d- @8 oJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
5 X: P1 W# y- p' z. kmarkets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact
- l; N9 ~# E$ n) Gon average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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3 S9 ^: `3 Q2 |! h1 STo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
. x# l. v3 ]% A" Z7 I+ A% }% emarket continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into+ |+ ?% S' a7 `7 E
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we
2 Y/ i. K1 Z, S0 d+ Dsaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). ) N4 w- ?: v/ S7 q: f9 H
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these3 E8 r& w' ^$ a$ R7 @2 G2 R: l
increases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six3 \6 |% \) x* ^5 |
months.
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6 w2 M# w Z8 h# \& LComparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
! K% ?6 e: i* V* b" k9 k& N; m! n+ scaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
7 T0 L! ]. O: U* Jfundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that' s' v5 v8 R" h2 s* }
the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
5 w7 I8 o. x7 @$ W) ?% ~6 H! W2 Iuntil it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
) I& S0 ~4 i) D# \( Ubecause they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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% ]; K5 \9 u$ h1 R7 ^$ @* S# rBy the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June; V8 S3 _' b) M: J4 D7 r
2005 to June 2006), also great news.
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June# M/ J3 P3 W- r
2006 New Housing Price Index for:8 l! H) Z& ?/ q+ ` Q
+ c3 w8 x, D; d! gVancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%
1 W" E0 o+ u- _0 ^, T& |Saskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%: O" H f5 d' N+ E9 y
London . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%
# B- m+ X! U3 e6 c7 P2 s) }Hamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%. b$ a5 P o$ ~# [
St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
3 a0 b7 Z8 @, R5 o" t* i7 @Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
( X7 G: y6 t% s6 pOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1%
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Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
2 R! N: g0 ^# t) R" Ogives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus!, m6 G; ]7 `8 g8 t) f1 [
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to- R0 t( G. y! U, F
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
0 k: _. [8 Z. h8 N5 I1 ^only across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are
) Y) ] `6 z `increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
0 o$ L+ H) K7 X+ Y6 X3 e* k# _ idrop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
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1 G# [ X9 a5 sHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
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3 I9 [- i' x, ~* p8 z2 Y1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in* g" C* ?+ q7 M& d, i
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth
5 Z# K$ X0 C1 x2 S1 L* x! o8 v$ n8 sfor Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
+ q0 \+ B2 s1 U9 b7 ?5 athis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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! A( T- C9 _, f9 y. _# b7 u+ i- E2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
, \% N, O* g( q, J% Kworld. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,: x5 Z- u1 g! Z1 X+ Q
the US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see/ j( A# H F, A2 ]- w" J+ z
that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently. ( B ~# m' l( Y: Z8 \8 Q- N
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3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment; V! T0 v1 ~7 a, F* v+ V4 g5 B) q
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
7 [: Z8 z3 C% o( YDublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after
' C x, D& d. ]0 P& X0 k7 L, k" aDon presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
8 Z9 b) ?0 ?9 i- U9 T4 `anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again
/ e$ U1 {) f1 y. U& gproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the6 N8 W5 ]- G/ E2 s" i9 ~; j+ L
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can$ T5 ?3 x8 [8 _
beat it for long term investment.
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5 Y5 f0 e) C$ z- P$ T$ u0 _! B4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
2 _+ ~' C( W' _) f! P7 [- D, c$ ya sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job
/ e& B1 ], ~6 s; Z) p" {' S4 bcreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics). o" E/ x G, T6 i, V$ C
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
0 ^) f( [" V* F+ a' h/ n( _January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... 0 |6 H- l3 \( ?8 ^7 W
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Strength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the. |& i* ]* B' ?
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the
9 `, y. S' L* C2 t& q' teconomy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
% g; h0 l* e A9 _2 ^5 t; Wthe year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
! _- e9 n# E5 z3 m) W9 {repeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with: s5 O- a, e0 W6 M
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at
4 E7 P" V. F# o; j7 y2 \9 Jits trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
0 s1 e/ u4 q0 C7 ` aof 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in; Z U5 z+ m9 i
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.- Z+ v: z% F6 @8 @$ a
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong2 x) o; d6 e9 _$ y
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
! G$ _7 ?1 R9 M; ]'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do* r; d# U! L; {3 m: y6 H5 _
your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
. Q0 O% C! Y' O, Q/ l# u1 Fopportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the/ E7 R( z/ `9 C, b8 m, {, N
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
' i7 c0 Y5 y# g; e; fand your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.- u5 ]' w2 \1 Y7 Q
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$ @& x) I/ r1 xCapital Gains Comparison.5 d7 I. Y3 ^: t; x
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KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
- o" Q! ^" t0 H) S/ DMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see9 N, J* ?+ f3 |% m7 M9 }
how these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:0 ?4 z( v, D$ f. |) E$ X# l
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BC . . . . . . . . 21.9%2 J7 w- a3 R: R6 a/ }( c' A
AB . . . . . . . . 19.5%# ~! A- m5 ]0 h4 l
SK . . . . . . . . 22.0%# p8 d5 ~& h9 W6 C" H4 o) w# e
MB . . . . . . . . 23.2%8 q: d* d6 o5 |. O
ON . . . . . . . . 23.2%
) i+ S! U( R9 }. ~' l; S- I5 LQC . . . . . . . . 24.1%
& ^/ n, X/ T& P. \" gNB . . . . . . . . 23.4%
6 m" r- p* f2 s; q" xNS . . . . . . . . 24.1%2 f, H9 S8 V |9 X
PE . . . . . . . . 23.7%8 T2 C9 P7 Z! C' R' v5 Z
NF . . . . . . . . 24.3%5 v6 }; @( S' y8 J8 v
' Y9 o: j# ?2 q9 `Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
3 N a+ ?9 b3 J. A# P$ G! Weconomy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of/ o' T' K# U0 x. b( \
their profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to.( L2 V* ~/ J7 d% i/ S6 B& N7 F
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" f5 R, \5 a( s" S, [" hOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the! R& b4 {7 X5 \6 w
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of
8 k' Q* d% R% qcourse, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
1 Y, i+ a6 m! Pevents like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion5 _; L5 C+ N2 H# v* B; }2 c! Y
when you take action as a full REIN Member.' B0 ?- e% ]2 d: y* }# o+ C
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Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
7 |5 q; z: m1 }' {% t5 W, W1 ?results in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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