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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
! l" T' \+ }/ C4 T, _/ l' G3 P
. D: f$ x n! i9 d- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -/ X; y! A0 x2 W0 y3 ?7 d
% ]( j* ?: A& w* V TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market$ K) v# Z! {; u( n8 s6 d
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third' q% p8 r5 Y8 I8 C1 l9 s( p
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic
- G) j& d# _1 m6 x3 Nin the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit4 G% S; O+ ^! g* X: M- R. o0 _
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and* _7 Q5 D3 r: j
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
4 c) x, P& T% W! q% {Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal2 g% m0 U2 t" m m# Q$ O
LePage Real Estate Services.8 ?6 U* k) d# `3 n% D% ~( B
6 ]$ x9 M& r' `
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters) S, z: ?8 \% |7 @5 C
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic8 K4 V: x! l0 e, O
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
: H) l" X* I Z/ A$ ?4 f1 Jsound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
1 v/ \; _+ x6 k0 @4 Kresidential real estate sector.
/ {, I! q# }$ n( p) I2 F0 `( R' J/ e6 ?6 x# b# g
Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
, U2 k- |* _! uoccurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
' @3 o- Q) j7 fyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562$ Z! q. ~1 L" ~5 n( H, l' }" U
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
0 x9 c1 @) d) f# k(+13.2%).
" T# _7 h+ N- v
- n0 V7 n. p7 ? e* }1 J$ { "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
- z( t6 V2 D( t# c: g4 jduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the. B. C" c, S" n! o) _; N+ t' u
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
/ G. E/ j F1 a/ W% Fpoised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,7 C/ Y1 K) I- X, x
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.) c' t* v# K3 c* H' N8 f
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We; v4 k8 V& `# \! w
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
: T, d* w, I- vbalanced market."& N g" R( b n
( e3 ~) ]- }! j! b: W# G Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
' l+ }) J8 i! X' Y7 ?3 Q+ b' Qconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
8 I3 _# d O! e+ I3 F4 hto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
. A5 l3 O, j& N/ h* othroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core y6 F# }8 A X9 a* n; }# m
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,; ?1 E0 H- A* Q1 \* C/ M1 k) A* J& @& E
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
8 Q% E6 ]" m+ ~# j0 l+ jbreaking price appreciations.3 j- l$ c! J, `' { }& b2 A
: _4 ?( n" ?- h# k; ` Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
! L2 {3 R/ n! O& ]0 S2 X4 Teconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the
) Q d2 o9 K3 t" q1 d( Ylargest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.0 j( t; R9 t5 m* K
4 q& ]1 W2 r; z) V% X N# Y In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid7 U' b" T' J2 B- [( S) R
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer/ N' l2 r) |: t" W3 H
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
5 ]. F6 h# R" I5 O u4 Fslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.0 e$ p8 B% y7 I$ |
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers/ K: A2 v, ~& Y# X
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of2 H6 R! v$ a' b- u
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
5 [$ Y( P. n; p( X# J9 o) P( ^! V8 \! ^# j' Z% w
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
% p2 P1 |2 X9 D* i% x- Tmarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and3 @& g7 ?' U6 ?9 [6 n
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada( ~, h7 b4 {) @* @( T) A
are markedly different than those found in the United States.
$ v4 m+ z l# T d1 F3 I9 P4 }8 N! q$ X: T, K2 o3 w6 d" t
Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
* ]' J0 e+ N; ?: l& eAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's0 Z8 ?, i" f3 L q0 S$ _
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the( b3 u' `$ I* J
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general1 g4 l, y8 w9 E' w
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
( Q( t) f$ C$ w7 z: e1 d% n$ \downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
* q9 R6 n5 R5 Yaggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
3 O( {1 J, @1 L( e J7 mmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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<<% X( U" u, d* z4 ?( g5 y# g' J
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
& v! m( V- t, ` >>5 [7 F% N( {+ X* H* b
3 X& I1 N0 E: q- ^
Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in/ Z: s, q0 Y5 l1 G% @
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
* [( d5 ?4 J' N/ C+ uof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
( `+ _3 X7 h3 f1 Ulooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
8 K! S: `0 c3 z. J& J0 u2 prenovations.( o8 _% ?. h5 f0 \, [' H
: i( E$ A2 O" B$ G The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight7 x# q9 l; a! v" G$ A% G2 ?
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
! c$ @2 U: z8 ~4 ncompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and$ E( o! S2 r/ h
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.! G5 i% K' E" `% h
3 E4 }! `) Y0 H: O6 f4 O9 O
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
* }( D ^2 R4 H4 u# o4 Bslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
! i2 F, ]# k8 I! Z' c2 _0 h mquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new- o6 Q( V3 t" N6 K" A/ W
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores( M4 ~; n% {7 f
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
, q" Q1 w4 ]0 N! r- @6 land are instead opting for more affordable housing options., {! Z) l; K# n" @. Y6 G% S9 ~- g( f
. h2 p l9 A# ?; D; D
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
5 {' M7 R, k n: |0 i, Z$ uconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their* M: y' u6 b5 C; b
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
7 M7 o6 T1 v0 w2 Y- ]9 _was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
# V8 I. x! E6 H0 A& j; ydollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
! N4 U1 u8 k4 T# `4 p5 n3 Wbuyers with more options when looking for a home.4 ]: D* `* L: _# @
, N* q3 Q4 {) S1 w0 C, y8 I' {: C Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
: r6 r6 Q+ |" f# |' j- l7 Ramong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes# r' u3 a* q4 y+ W0 r2 _- |( Q" t3 H
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
7 L' b9 i: ~3 m# L x6 \as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last. ^9 |1 x. C* i, z' o; w# `; m6 t
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
' Z+ n, a2 C5 I
7 N$ o( f b5 P& v. Z! o Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house- U" z' ^0 Q( d1 ~
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory5 O+ Y' w9 D4 B- [( q0 K2 Q
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting& V2 `0 V0 K" X1 w# d
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
5 x: \+ I B7 ]when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
# B7 E) K1 i1 Y* b# W/ w; s+ Xpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before/ \0 b) X, Y9 b0 N9 L
making a purchase.- X! H2 H% r T/ }& Z! A8 J
| g+ e2 j: O6 J) ^8 [& [ Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing3 a1 I4 }6 z8 f& d- W @7 i. Q+ l. s
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong4 |& k' ]! V* v& w9 E0 y( K" r
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city) R) A+ U8 | V
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
& h+ ]5 ?! t' V9 Dattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
3 D i+ u0 k; j& y7 G8 f# Qamenities., n S- _* D' P' S: z# V. G6 t) ^
! m3 d5 h8 Y7 Q& a9 P The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels2 b4 H( ]0 I# n$ l
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand4 ^6 E% R& D" R2 a
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has; S) ?0 u# K( J8 e+ v' S
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been3 K+ p6 b" H% g
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
4 s2 e9 @% x3 S( R5 Oresidence, rather than for investment." d) b& N0 f4 y8 @
9 @/ B) s5 K; ]5 S; R
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as* C7 r d8 A# P# A, ?- S. {
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted: V% \) j& S; |! z+ ~" X
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer F9 Q0 Q% C; u8 L. T
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
3 T R3 \9 Q; E# K) z# G: O- C, _rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
9 q: J# N f% B5 e! \: T1 Ythe market.+ K4 k: c# y/ D8 U
3 E( j& ?! K% h* u, I' p9 Y
In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through" w" Z, `% y8 G/ e: ~ S# L; z
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In& q( |( H9 u2 H' ?
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
3 ^8 A3 ]1 B3 y% Tmonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due9 r- T W6 k( p
to the shortage of available inventory.
1 h) k1 ^+ L; h: g" u- A9 n( P* J3 X. G- Y
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its: u% A6 t8 m( ~. `: ~4 Q
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
" y' D) U' g. b4 cvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses# x7 y- H) ?" s) Z- X0 u+ n
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
/ Y: f5 P5 {+ h- U/ ~
1 e* n" c( e2 d' a' F, }3 [ Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
% F8 t6 |) [8 h% tin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low6 M! u/ p( e& T4 v0 Y# N
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
" Y: y+ m; N/ ]" L Y; f. mpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring: @2 A4 D9 q4 ~& H+ Q
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
( r8 D9 q( e% K# o0 t h6 ^7 {5 }season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as2 q) U( M/ |* |& ]( G2 t8 N
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
N' [ B8 f1 Q6 |0 m
2 W6 g) D l' y- N8 p( ~( F- w* f Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter& r) O( m* ]4 f* T% b' p f
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton, X2 j+ d, ?$ h8 e% P5 i
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
0 B' {" B1 n, M: hmaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices* c! K# J4 R! j5 f6 e" R
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
G1 R8 W! B! _" ]& [) e9 [' Uin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
4 T3 m( z2 K1 Q1 \0 \5 Rtowards the end of 2006.
7 _; @1 s a9 [7 Y u
: L; ^" c- B( Y* EWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of2 W2 q# G" \# O8 N
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable2 R8 C* w; s7 \! p z
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse+ S) q6 R5 s9 z- h" u
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to9 W1 I% M1 |5 p M# i
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added2 C6 Y F( ^$ P: q2 w& d( {
pressure on tight inventory levels.5 R( p9 A7 P7 t$ ^+ `7 v' I8 b
# g0 P! g8 G: g; h
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic! G. j7 M: o* D+ h" E) m
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people! `" ]4 O* {% T! W1 U
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;& |+ ]& R3 f) ]8 p, l) p* H, Q( E g
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching- R: n8 B# T/ Q, ]$ n
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
1 \+ D T! x' u5 i$ b" q1 ^
/ _7 T( f, J* E' K- r <<
7 v% E/ a _+ o/ |7 {, B Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 20068 G, I% n! k/ b: T1 G% l
4 B7 l- K$ V% V c5 Q
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 _3 \+ O9 B9 w/ [3 d. i Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey3 b; q; f Z3 ~; B* I: e
-------------------------------------------------------------------------; L+ E: D- M$ B" |$ N+ R
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
5 [6 V& A7 F2 j: Z S Market Average Average % Change Average Average! X D% R' X- ~4 o& ~
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ N! Z$ s4 T8 O6 b2 f% m6 S; e Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
6 X1 ]2 |* U! [6 { -------------------------------------------------------------------------: p. K/ K' S! e9 I7 b
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
- C( C+ f: J: b0 n6 G: q; M -------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 P. l) t5 [, E Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
0 w$ Q" W2 z; T& Y9 s: O) o -------------------------------------------------------------------------* f4 @ T2 S, M1 i5 k+ h: Q
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
8 ?1 F% \5 U/ g -------------------------------------------------------------------------) ~0 @; o, c8 W5 K
St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
6 P! ~7 `% |) n0 d -------------------------------------------------------------------------+ a' l6 q/ Q! k7 x' l, N% r
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,5838 m- l" ^* Y/ L4 k' N8 X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ j- g2 ]; {4 A+ l8 M. U# v' `7 Z, Z Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
9 S U8 {) E2 S! V$ G3 e' L; Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------7 O* f: E! p+ J" H% o
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250
/ \' @" K$ }: O' W1 y! `) t' { -------------------------------------------------------------------------" C- G% Z& F0 I( T! K( y# i
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
6 W, _' ^% r8 W2 k -------------------------------------------------------------------------4 ]2 C& ^; Z* M& t! o
Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
7 A$ K/ N: R7 A5 b( t# _ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 \4 t' ~7 ?, _& W2 ] Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
. f6 o# F+ w I% O -------------------------------------------------------------------------
! r" S! K' h* R3 W4 { Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
1 f" A3 v4 t1 p- ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------0 ]8 G5 _% R; i0 E; B
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714; B% |+ Z# y9 I+ H0 z' ~
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
* I6 N D& m: o3 Z! R$ g Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,5002 D) c% ?5 R) a* q* R
-------------------------------------------------------------------------3 }6 ]4 V2 x! e1 \* Z# T' G
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000" W9 _. v6 A4 f
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 b9 z1 U+ g. Z- K National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
5 M G5 X/ Z. _) [2 t -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# @2 v' n) y* V3 K4 Q
& U9 s: w0 O% d -------------------------------------------------------------
5 F" f0 U+ M3 _/ ^ Standard Condominium
" L3 {3 `8 N+ l {4 ] -------------------------------------------------------------$ P9 Z) j. Q' b2 Z8 ~8 ]+ g# m
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo! C% }, X% u( Q' @3 z
Market % Change Average Average % Change1 { V" F% W; k9 J& c
-------------------------------------------------------------
. W& E% e9 o, _; q* P5 S Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%8 ~& z$ ?4 |% F0 f. ?! Z% ?& w
-------------------------------------------------------------1 f! D' E) n p
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
3 ], {# G0 A& q4 w- C" a# i( ` -------------------------------------------------------------8 T6 o4 l! U# D5 t0 t
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A5 K7 d w9 w3 |9 `& Y
-------------------------------------------------------------5 }& k1 z( D* Q: H( a) M; F
Saint John N/A - - N/A/ C: ^+ z$ [& t* c. h3 J7 c
-------------------------------------------------------------
! q1 {! W" h1 x St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
1 ~/ i: m: ? Y$ @ -------------------------------------------------------------
% n& X" H+ i9 S' K- g! Q Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
7 {8 e5 f- f* y8 N9 d! F; Z: [ -------------------------------------------------------------7 ^% A; m. m% [
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%% m3 X/ `% f( C d* {5 t
-------------------------------------------------------------
# T- Q4 Q# ]: b/ `, c Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
8 b! z( J( z4 ?4 b' B z" T -------------------------------------------------------------
) t, v! |" W; _6 R5 ]$ ]' \+ d; D Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%3 _ ]# O9 n/ s! P
-------------------------------------------------------------
4 @+ Y' t8 l( z: q$ ^ Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
# i3 y. l- F, u( ]. X/ X1 W -------------------------------------------------------------
. {! i7 c1 O9 M" |3 g" k6 ]- e; K Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
8 T' A g* ]+ R' L/ i -------------------------------------------------------------
) p* P: R% ]# c( |' A Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%. {* l$ e5 y! \: X; B
-------------------------------------------------------------# G n& W% H9 K+ F" i3 n
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
. O. z$ j5 k7 ^1 Q -------------------------------------------------------------$ G" }# H, V& M& o
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%* v, m. u( A c7 W) @
-------------------------------------------------------------; U& U. }7 n0 v( Y. {& e, l9 k
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%4 T! G& Y$ u A& V
-------------------------------------------------------------
5 X) j# v; h# I0 d0 S National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
v' a9 g+ b' H5 L% D+ @ -------------------------------------------------------------
2 O, Q8 p5 U7 u: K' {$ y8 x >># I8 t) h2 E, t" A
, Y0 W. R0 {; M! C. |1 X) O: h1 k) I
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
5 i- _1 i2 r) I8 g9 e; fin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint) {! I3 b2 b* O" W7 y- w; W
John and Victoria.
( U0 s/ `5 W0 D7 I8 m5 k. C1 j5 o) }! I! O- x0 w
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most; ~8 N. M% Z! X |8 M" P
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of8 w5 S& Z3 c9 [- i# T
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release( a& O9 U+ y+ t) R8 S
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
% m5 {1 o3 U8 g( ktrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities U6 Z1 ^" ~* |8 v5 P7 @$ J/ i
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is# \$ ]/ v( X, I8 [" R1 k7 i
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current/ b( J- O7 q, o$ G
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable. N7 n$ g, m9 [4 Z6 \0 X8 Q& i
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on. E" X2 \( L+ K! ]! e; I# _
November 15, 2006.
, C% L/ K( W6 u! C% A9 j( o# ? Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of: N* J& Y/ E: H
fair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
: Y9 F, ]/ b; J# ]provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
7 h" v, |) }* h3 G# f( M# Davailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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