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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
# F9 K% {, X3 q9 Z7 u$ O1 L; q4 J8 [& r' h
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -9 Z0 Y9 ~1 {; I, ]0 K% x; r
+ U( u" S* ]4 w% H/ R, P TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market
X' L5 `, d- Z4 D% D0 `/ Gexhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third$ c! G! A' }4 r; j$ J! F
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic. `7 L) V3 ~, |
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
. F4 D0 ~& i5 o& A2 k$ Q7 n* Zprice gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and! s( ~( b. ?9 U- S, P. h/ M
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
; | p% E" _) R( S. qQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal3 s0 s3 V! M# \! H
LePage Real Estate Services.
6 S, e* q( M; v9 n# y* ]" k
& p+ O& p9 e$ T% j Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
* M/ E3 c2 S# l8 V% xare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic& b4 i' z2 u( K. K8 A9 X
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and
: v: @$ n; I) F+ f) lsound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
0 a4 s! a% _3 Cresidential real estate sector.. }. [5 ?2 z3 [0 o/ @0 M
: X' t1 c; {" Q3 f p Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation! o2 Y. v1 `. o+ n( O$ ^* U1 u
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)8 f" y7 ^! H5 ] U, }! a
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,5621 z' }8 W6 @% @6 y6 O8 y4 n( h
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
6 b! @) m' \' Q+ S(+13.2%).
* m$ b W0 y7 o- b! M8 U$ x+ p7 Z& z. Z
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
" v9 ~( s1 o" ^, J1 gduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the4 Y! E& }9 N: r9 G& w7 a2 H: a
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are
; P. u. [" f# c% w6 b2 D6 ~/ ?poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,6 j5 x B& Z) p- X* P# Q+ ^
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
1 U) C: G7 b) l; O% C/ \/ d"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
4 L( {- x+ e& u6 Nwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
0 I4 i. S- c- t; O" @balanced market."
; l1 c6 O; S7 N! p7 `+ I, e0 x* _6 q' G! v
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,
: ~# U- P# f% @' z1 Cconsiderable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
8 c0 s5 Y* d9 J2 vto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued O0 m: b; ]! ^2 o
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core5 n1 A( S6 x7 M$ A
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
; E+ d, o4 ?. amanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record" J1 j% _# q8 \# c; Y; b
breaking price appreciations.* p6 O4 I7 v. \8 b8 O' h: `$ i
7 Y' |/ o9 ^& W7 k Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
, m; Y3 F3 I$ Q6 U- keconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the2 n, h. X) P) M' b, C% ^
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
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In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
) `: b* h: {0 ~" H1 P6 R3 beconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer4 x U& o; P! [% j: U
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off
0 h2 d: J" k# ]0 B. `! zslightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.$ o. U5 p# @8 \: }. c9 o
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
" y& o: X) v: ?& q; _9 ~greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of8 a; y N1 v: Z* p
price appreciation when compared with 2005.
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While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
! s: k& c$ u. T9 x# [8 ~market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and. x8 z$ V5 s. E! ^! N* r
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
. q$ p6 m( q5 q5 c- Iare markedly different than those found in the United States.
. ^3 _. D8 M( Y z" p# J) R
6 d2 d6 C2 b$ [1 N9 A3 ]5 f Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
9 k, x) `" M; w( JAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's3 b# _6 G: I/ T4 w+ N7 f
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the( [9 B+ Q+ u1 l* ]: h
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
" |7 D, e, \' H# F: } zaffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the
# C1 W! u% _2 \! u5 n1 p8 @/ u+ Jdownside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
2 C; I; k( p8 n2 V; ?- ?, saggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization* \" J8 w. i, X, ]
mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."! v3 ~6 `8 o6 i. [3 m7 d. [
8 c7 j: j& C7 B <<
4 E; T! g0 t7 z! \7 q REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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" d( g" h; X i6 v$ o Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
9 P7 u3 n% X6 z) y7 u- M4 ^Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate! `/ j3 @, ?# m- p" |: ` g8 E
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time5 {8 U7 Y8 A9 W1 G( t. M
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of9 l4 K& ]$ e9 M3 \. P
renovations.( p, M1 U8 B$ l2 B. _9 h/ q5 A& r
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The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight" ?: h4 i4 B2 ~" U, }! A( h
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation! u8 p% z. b' ~9 }1 P; }
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
+ w4 k+ Y2 _8 ]$ V" E- G& [. FSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
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, ~1 H0 @ ~9 U! j! y( v The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
1 d) O2 z5 |% i z* M, Fslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
9 o* p/ }; Y5 c! A3 o4 X0 mquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
7 O) n$ \4 e0 Y/ N# s! s600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
) b) |. U, M- |% H! G5 }& g5 Zto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes1 A) M$ ?6 m( n1 D7 a* y2 s2 I
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
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' Y0 C v# ~5 \. M% ~2 {# J In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
3 ?' o5 m* C& L& B# x6 Z. P' i2 c* ^conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their' P8 p% b6 c6 D: W) V6 X
homes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers1 f8 a& I0 r9 i0 r% X9 i
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian% x2 z5 _( {1 w8 @# a A
dollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing) H. u V( n0 f" Q. ^" M1 F
buyers with more options when looking for a home.
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Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
5 m9 `* J- g. ^* W5 _: n+ namong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes" g" j% N0 x7 L& T/ ?9 ~
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
8 e8 H5 p8 Q0 Xas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last/ d4 o9 v& l3 k& V( Y7 n
few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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! V, v- h4 f% j3 c; W Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house) B# \, i7 {: Y5 v |" ?1 p
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory( f A @, D' z3 }/ V
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
$ i J; ?4 W: X9 _* [6 efirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1, |9 v* d) {$ W6 i, ~
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the* Q; Y3 O+ J% e6 q* u2 A
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
6 l7 T( X# n6 `/ P5 I9 e) smaking a purchase.* } L' _+ m9 ^' C% O" c
9 P5 x, l4 u+ p; b
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing5 b' b1 [2 V, E& [- m
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong# z$ p! o w& S8 [
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city Q4 m% E# M' W( Z
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting5 _8 H: T* O' k9 W$ @" ^
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
7 ^. n8 ~+ v1 f5 |5 f- |; yamenities.
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O! @ o1 F$ {/ Q8 m# L The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels6 K t U X" v& D! R$ q, H
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand$ B8 j6 k/ G: H9 W: p; F7 }: N
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has6 ~5 z: L3 W5 Y
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been' @3 ~$ M& z8 X/ R5 t3 ]
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle5 N) |& V) f4 r' u& _
residence, rather than for investment./ ~+ R: D# H Z4 W8 _0 a6 A" H l
+ ]( o$ o ? T* Y The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as" F# P8 `! I7 ^
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted! ~+ V. B9 l4 t% g- o. _* i3 R
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
% E7 w$ g' x4 S/ Lconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization! d1 `7 R" q1 w% ^. r% m
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter3 q! r& ]9 b5 t7 y2 | b
the market. V4 r) f5 H3 W5 k+ g
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In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through, O, p, a; y4 g5 E6 {) g3 Z4 @
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In, R2 z' [: D1 j; C
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring) r6 q a- h6 V9 U' N; R
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due+ |4 n4 C. Y) @0 R; P
to the shortage of available inventory.
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/ ~+ k/ N% k, {# k Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
; g3 F. R Z- G4 z* v5 dmomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains; Z) M2 ]! ?, B
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
/ f2 Z% i- ^/ n# S; n& _5 Dstruggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
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Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
: ^6 j0 n# \3 pin the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low' D, r2 u- R; s8 v9 l. c8 n
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that4 F# L, Z" h& g1 m5 J. M/ f8 W; w
pressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring w% k: ?8 i* W
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
/ D0 ^9 q( A4 aseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
' \- n! t& ^) _0 G6 nbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
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Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter0 w% i1 R$ R8 \% b
as activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton& e4 t% Z8 t) Z
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
+ D' [) N- C' K5 C; d: X; Ymaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices
N" C- J! _7 Cincreasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
3 G% @4 G# l9 H0 O8 p) w' j; {in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly- z1 C% g4 y* ~5 X1 x8 w2 x
towards the end of 2006. 9 N- T" Q" s2 n' d: Z9 ]; l
$ V8 Q) `5 O( d: h
While Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
4 @: s+ U& ~9 ^5 N) dinventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable6 c; R0 J& x- D( G# h* K7 c4 e
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
* N+ c1 {! Z1 C; A V& Ngroup of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
+ g' D) S* z5 [( k; o5 a Vforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added. L: R4 @, ^; V* g
pressure on tight inventory levels.
9 E- q6 o5 P. g& o, ?: g
- l5 P! j9 s; A* y6 ~2 m Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic A/ ^! E1 L0 |
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people. @# ?' Z6 k3 P9 ^
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;, p) B" H& _" \+ R3 `
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
: w; I, B7 Y0 R9 Q% dfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
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<<
8 `- s3 h, h* w1 f Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
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, J& P. X6 S2 q$ D -------------------------------------------------------------------------% z* [+ g C0 p) b' z
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey$ u) `) |4 \# U1 C& u' [
-------------------------------------------------------------------------7 K0 v# V& B- b6 [; t- H, g
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q32 K. N1 B) k- a* J1 D- H& t
Market Average Average % Change Average Average+ h- F3 |7 d% X% F) }6 I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ {# J2 I8 \* K3 Y, D
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000; W1 H* s- ] H" V& x* S. a
-------------------------------------------------------------------------& r0 E( G$ }6 y: a
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000, w6 b% }2 k( ^0 X6 D8 q
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
J* p) t& U9 o Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
9 [& v! k* ]: I2 n. ]6 v) l+ D -------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 R1 [, ~/ s! I% W6 E4 b6 a Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -9 `/ i! v1 o+ o5 a5 d8 R; W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
& b: ]1 h& x& u; y St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333
: w! u! o! u# g+ O" A$ u -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& k! W6 i5 X& v5 X n Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
* N, x9 J' m, H X: A9 h -------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 ]1 Z8 M7 R G1 R" C Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185/ }1 {8 G- c+ O- H+ e- F% J
-------------------------------------------------------------------------2 a" a3 k6 o- x L, j
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250' N# D; C5 r' B( }+ w6 c) M
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
! Y8 c( ~* E Z$ j! Q Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
Y+ o4 N% D) |+ {1 R8 k -------------------------------------------------------------------------
( ?* K5 \- `" \% N6 I Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
6 K6 q- z' f0 @& }! J$ {& ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------
" C2 G- r) O* c Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500: {1 G# C$ w6 a
-------------------------------------------------------------------------. R% s) _6 ]+ y/ {- B9 i$ P+ ^
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389, Q0 y/ t: B2 ~. L% g
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Z8 ~, Y; L2 @! F: t Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714 B: E) n* k6 m
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ I8 V6 Z+ P) B" v/ n d: G) z$ n Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500# y4 _: {4 v7 R! t0 ~$ Y6 [- R% W
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 x+ @ |9 K5 B9 t/ l Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
/ z" a* d6 d3 l; b1 U -------------------------------------------------------------------------- s7 Q/ s# y! P; D" J8 u. ?/ ^
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
- O* T! w. T/ @! v% D d -------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 s$ @. x y w
# G9 c, X" E" u" U$ @ -------------------------------------------------------------) h2 s: z7 G* X3 o+ y0 o- ^8 k
Standard Condominium9 @- c& ?, c. K# ^3 x
-------------------------------------------------------------+ Z0 \, f, J& [6 F9 q/ s' ~
2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo0 P* z) O' ?# J; F r7 b4 K
Market % Change Average Average % Change
# W( v) P; J: g$ \4 F. j4 q -------------------------------------------------------------
8 X0 l* p0 M+ ?5 M# Z. p Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
$ v3 u5 T- g+ @3 V& d1 q ------------------------------------------------------------- z2 m& b& D0 f
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%' g8 ]! N D5 V) w2 U2 }
-------------------------------------------------------------3 i! w! p0 W, W I; G7 z1 G4 n! G
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A5 T4 J+ Q# }# ` P2 K% C
-------------------------------------------------------------
" F: `: F4 w7 t3 l Saint John N/A - - N/A
. s/ _# m3 }* q: H) N -------------------------------------------------------------4 v6 f% V& S) \; l5 y
St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%
2 h6 d5 y7 h4 b; D- f -------------------------------------------------------------
0 A: l% Y! I2 W: E Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%3 `- F/ J5 W/ F& @7 r
-------------------------------------------------------------
' }8 m. I \# S. b7 d" Q) j Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%, W/ x* H# [/ o; i# {: z
-------------------------------------------------------------
" S9 Q, T2 _. |( c+ } Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%) ^. i& e3 d# V, A- F5 j! C) L
-------------------------------------------------------------
+ p4 ?- z+ T0 R( }) o+ \ Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%4 f- a) Z& D# o ~ C
-------------------------------------------------------------/ ?1 m4 l, U# I0 x0 j) {
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%
5 w; @: W4 G. n( Z' ` -------------------------------------------------------------
z9 ~! m# G4 M: H Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%
& b+ q( S- ^+ x -------------------------------------------------------------. v. u5 _, d9 A; m, E: o, R
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%) U; P' y' l* d7 `% K6 X& f" b! Z
-------------------------------------------------------------
9 c8 ^# L) M- T8 K, `7 [7 Z0 B Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
( T, j( h; R6 O% R$ N+ M -------------------------------------------------------------+ P* x! H$ T7 ]: c( x5 P5 ~* T
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
, N9 i# \+ |2 t -------------------------------------------------------------$ {* R c! E7 R/ g9 R% i2 i. S
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
3 v3 [/ r* |5 q2 X' y, {% T' Z -------------------------------------------------------------
4 F' l' t; ^8 y National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
/ F5 A. k& N8 l3 D" ~$ d -------------------------------------------------------------9 A7 k5 s4 a/ t w0 f1 X0 t. R
>>
% m% z! i3 F. d- }& p8 m
2 `" ?' M- A% D: T1 k/ x+ T( u: W% d Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
6 @" J5 j5 X3 [- Tin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint
; S, x0 U' B/ z2 `$ ?$ _0 mJohn and Victoria.: {3 C m9 `+ r( h- l5 z
, f2 a5 |3 Q/ P$ z m% b# r The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most( V7 N% D* _" H, L7 r1 v
comprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
8 b/ y4 ^; n% y: ?! a9 a& qhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
& ?/ x* p' c- O# Y$ ~references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price) y, y' v; J: m! f: p( W
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
5 h; l6 w% Q0 `across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is1 s: f5 C% K( x! ?, g) Z4 {
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
) g( B4 u' M( j$ t& rfigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable f8 y: c. ~7 o! V7 {: Y1 w
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on) a) A% p7 [/ F; i( u! C+ U& t- d
November 15, 2006.8 z `3 t. x: S( ~* M
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
) I3 p) d. _7 `- C- W5 w7 Yfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
+ C0 D% k- n# ~/ k9 [) fprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is: ? ?6 o: V2 z, Z. s: f
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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