受到产量持续过剩的影响,石油价格不断下跌。加拿大丰业银行(Scotiabank)经济学家、大宗商品市场专家帕特里夏·摩尔(Patricia Mohr)却认为,油价已经触底并即将反弹。% B: Z0 y! R, f) q' j+ S" H1 p
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摩尔昨日发布报告表示,西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格已经低于“半周期保本成本,即60-61美元/桶”。. s9 h. \9 D" y/ ~ H* u
我的预测 - 2015 年: 1 v/ A. n, X* c0 T* j1. 油价继续小降, 然后稍升, 最后维持在$50 到 $60间 波动; * C4 r- p$ ~: |3 G9 V$ X2. 房价暴跌 30%到45%;/ L% R; B/ D" H. v n
3. Unemployment rate may increase 7 to 8%;3 E- P% S% b7 E1 M; J- ?
4. Grocery prices may increase 5% to 10%; ' u+ G: S; ?0 j: Z# E) n2 f R0 c. l1 s5. Interest rate may increase 0.25% to 2% in order to control inflation rate within 1% to 3%; ( `9 N @8 i. i7 }6. Stock price may decrease and stock market will show significant ups and downs;7 x3 t1 B( H, @$ ?3 r9 t7 z6 Z9 ] E# Q
7. Social benefits may decrease and some social aid programs will close; 6 G1 `+ q3 w; `: R* l8. Personal and corporate income taxes may increase slightly; and 6 ]& r3 w- s! l9. GST/HST may increase.0 o, Y, Y& S. F8 ]( ]& M
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Personal viewpoints for your reference.