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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts* o+ G' F: X. u; e' n
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
0 b3 Y6 M0 N% ]1 L# J( VBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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7 q4 ~4 `. Z; TOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.8 w2 h" D/ T' P8 r4 P
8 J$ V9 h1 K: P) \That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.( w1 @0 l" o5 N2 c5 W1 I
5 M1 Q& @; _) L$ MIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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' U* m5 n4 q$ f: J: d/ i% @Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.$ E! ?/ n. `0 j; ~' a6 i
6 Q9 o5 [3 q* H6 @( C' y% @2 zAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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6 U) }( E1 F- f- w' aHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
9 ?0 Q# P; F3 i/ y0 M5 R1 ICenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
0 u. k& B0 u$ U4 |2 C2 {8 cThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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+ F/ G& v& O' @The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”% \" A2 J. k* _
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.; U# p3 u6 z. @5 [- B6 W
, V9 a; s1 f& |CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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" o4 V2 c! C0 v) Z1 }Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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8 A1 m# ?. _* _. QThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.; l5 A6 n' F+ e5 o
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.5 c6 [4 i3 H! B* s6 c: M) r
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.3 I$ P$ s" R) z& l
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.7 L( C; ?9 ?$ \3 D
, b0 p; o' Z% k“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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