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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts, f8 ]+ U" h2 c8 o; e6 T
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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- B' X0 r6 p& @/ Y9 p1 bLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.& x0 l/ b( Z8 w/ w. L
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.4 D% \$ x: d4 U$ g& y
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2 [9 p4 N0 R7 A0 J4 q1 UOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario., }% x9 ?# k2 `0 v
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province., u9 E L ~: m, U
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”$ e+ H3 e: Y* j% y
8 f: \0 t& K% U% n8 ?1 }: ]9 z7 D7 wMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.! n5 f7 N+ S1 M. [/ ]
8 ]7 ~% R8 c L“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.( @! u8 `& k* Q1 w
# l6 ~; O% p% j% {As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.5 N3 r& i' h+ ^2 B& j
3 J! K% f3 {" E% |5 Y. v# F3 a/ qHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.0 G& Q5 Y6 H( ?* @" K9 [! s$ G1 j4 H
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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# I3 P, H" T' S7 v$ jRelated
4 T" _* q* Z. iCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
) Z0 ?/ q9 K2 b, Z6 {, a1 Z' fCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
% ~6 V3 d# Q" K8 W" k! R$ dThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over& C G6 K1 G$ p
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+ }& [& t( s. N$ u6 d& IThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.9 a H( }4 g& }, U m
+ X0 I3 Q9 `* `6 _1 g4 s: m8 f+ |“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”# D; e. a" I; G% |5 g- |: ?
6 ] W1 f+ g8 E6 jFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.' e8 q. n$ z8 I' Q/ ^! Q
( {) |* [* Z$ y5 m- M6 VCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010." `/ }; x" `2 B3 Y/ l: b4 `
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.9 F% q- b! ?$ x3 e
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.) [8 Y% E9 u0 e0 I4 X1 K7 T
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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" R1 U- a" g- ~4 v# ^Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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2 R4 G6 u) A6 ~9 b! ^“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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