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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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' V! M! S2 A1 Z' H) h* OGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET; _6 J5 W( e( ]
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( |( l s2 u: \# z! W! Q2 bLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
' Y5 u7 J6 H5 `+ a4 ^7 I3 d' d" TBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.9 h$ d% K9 m) t) ?
/ A6 V- z* w( l4 Q KThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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1 ?: U( k+ _4 dIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.” w0 L, m, {3 B# W) R' `
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.& ~/ c( j! G+ W9 p f+ w% ]
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.+ e- Y7 T' ^5 I
$ |; L9 C- y# p: X2 i1 `/ |As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.% }# e! S. y5 D% `
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
- A+ q' G6 T0 A1 g& _0 z7 mCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’2 i/ B7 Y* u3 x& p! }' S
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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+ C# {% C2 k. \4 A3 V3 h) z: tThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”5 Z; m' ]* d' c3 Y0 O4 Q* Y3 n
& Q0 Z0 c6 [& a7 VFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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* A( b: ~/ d9 i. {! N% C4 D; mCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.9 G7 {7 a" `. n- I: M2 k1 Y3 k
7 q: l- J o/ x" |/ H$ T" b1 EContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.! E, Q m8 P/ j7 }+ J9 g4 p* z: I
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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+ T$ ~( z& F; i# f! rMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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3 Y8 [/ H% W+ Q6 g* D2 dThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.* U( X( C! X5 U" c7 a
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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