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发表于 2015-9-11 09:37
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! D4 j- f& N% t1 f$ fBy Barani Krishnan
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/ z9 E" F( k& t) E- O0 @NEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude futures fell on Friday after Wall Street's most influential voice in oil trading, Goldman Sachs, slashed its price outlook through next year, citing oversupply and concerns about China's economy.
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Joining Germany's Commerzbank and a long list of other banks in cutting price projections, Goldman lowered its 2016 forecast for U.S. crude to $45 a barrel from $57 previously, and Brent to $49.50 from $62.: x; N D) t6 z+ L3 T
; Q: {% l( s' ?! n* {, K"The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we forecast this surplus to persist in 2016," Goldman said in a note entitled "Lower for even longer".
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$ k I* [# Q4 Y2 hCiting "operational stress" as a growing downside risk to its forecast, Goldman said crude could fall further to near $20 a barrel. "While not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels ... is becoming greater as8 J5 i4 f( m" i) p
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storage continues to fill."
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U.S. crude futures' front-month contract <CLc1> was down $1, or 2.2 percent, at $44.92 a barrel by 11:54 a.m. EDT.
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" B) D6 E C9 [9 I. tThe front-month in Brent <LCOc1>, the global benchmark for oil, was off 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $48.19.1 k9 N. k4 L6 b( v3 J: R
: i3 Q, }( s% O, b( VBoth crude benchmarks had fallen about 3 percent, before paring loses with stocks on Wall Street. The U.S. stocks have provided direction to oil over the last two weeks as investors grappled with mixed fundamentals for crude.1 H7 v- m' H* {. c: m
* J2 e! y4 k- A& H3 EThe oil market is waiting next for a weekly reading of the U.S. oil rig count, due at 1:00 p.m. ET. The data will show for whether oil producers were cutting back on drilling as prices head lower again after a brief rebound in the second quarter.
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Crude prices have more than halved over the past year, with Brent tumbling from nearly $120 a barrel in the middle of 2014 to below $43 last month. Prices collapsed as a global glut of crude pushed commercial and government inventories to all-time highs./ s% @# _0 V4 x5 O
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Analysts say the market is rebalancing, but high stocks will keep weighing on prices into next year.; s- N4 n; Y# m+ V; b
: m1 e5 y+ r5 Y) H) @Germany's Commerzbank said Brent was likely to trade at $55 by the end of 2015, and around $65 by end-2016.
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Investors shrugged off a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises the world's biggest economies on energy policy. The IEA said a move by the world's big oil exporters in OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to defend their market share by not reducing production, appeared to be working.
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(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington and Christopher Johnson in London and Meeyoung Cho in Seoul; Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio) |
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楼主: jeffyu1988
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