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/ R8 V& d/ T. _* }# H. E& Z7 M) z0 _ Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
2 [2 p' e) N6 Z/ Z6 ?, sBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN: R: j( K0 ?1 H# I8 A P4 S
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. ) B$ N! q$ _8 t: t4 y
' Q3 E$ q* X, }/ a% }* ]+ ^) VMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. & u: L& F( T/ V% U
! t( i9 Z5 z4 A, M% i3 g. tBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. " Y! ]& O/ h+ i& Z: {1 f
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 8 u/ c1 y0 ?! w
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 2 _# [$ R& y( k% m6 ^4 {: o1 ?
f' Q/ `( p5 @! {"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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2 @: k6 v9 }/ p2 }Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. a# _: T, P8 @+ L* h- n7 [" L
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 9 f7 v6 r: P0 v" D: x# A
3 y4 k( I: W, u/ T/ g2 q: X"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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8 @* c# ?, X$ Z+ p" p# h7 ]/ z5 S6 A: L"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. $ v/ w: D& B y1 O) e
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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3 L o# @: `6 I& c- \* z" [He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. & I) L) l% {! Z1 l
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. . Y0 v$ c4 E; Z$ {6 @" w
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. - F" r B8 ^0 w- @) W
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 5 d# ?) X5 S$ {
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Let the good times roll. + L- H4 r4 [% j& U! \
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Previous story: Bottom Line
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