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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007' C8 H# V) j6 }# u+ e
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN6 b) z& D# I1 t/ Z3 i( u
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: |1 N1 k H5 ]) b1 [2 w, RThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. ! B: v. m0 W4 E, t- S9 b1 t
$ _4 F0 y5 ^3 pMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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' R, I! f* b, OBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. $ e" I! c& C% F9 B; m6 h" o$ y* `
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. , |6 Z$ i3 ?% F6 I5 ?3 C8 t1 f
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' ) b! ]+ y- e0 A) u4 q1 H. w
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 5 d. h9 u& T/ Y' D
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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% [& ?) ^+ w1 P: v# Y- t1 E/ h"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 4 I" Y! r' l! h* g3 o
@+ k& d/ N6 t& s( JCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. # E7 i( o# P( Q4 {8 G
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. $ k7 i, F a! m% U9 r
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. % [2 z s8 M5 r, z/ K6 e7 V
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 2 x) y! L3 ?/ |0 t, H: t4 \% \
' i+ U; l; w4 Q- f" |He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. $ [& k% F1 z) x1 U3 J
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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# ]: @; C6 `. W$ |2 c8 R3 bHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. . z% E+ n9 }: b: y
: {; Q1 {5 \) W; ]2 C"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 0 `- ~8 n6 D4 p, R
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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( r9 m, V8 y& N) g+ R. GYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 6 Q5 w1 M, o1 L# |% j8 g( f2 K8 C
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 9 \3 h0 |* K1 W4 w; x2 c
9 n/ e7 A" f w7 ALet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line4 R# { O; M3 A7 H, A
Next story: Building permits hit record' c$ i k' C2 ]
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