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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com: l) u2 }2 w' t7 L7 [$ \. w
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- A( i7 O4 M) `( VThu, January 11, 2007+ t! j7 C9 r, R: X; d) K- P
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20079 j6 `9 j; C% Y( M: M t
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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" X& ^* @: F5 mMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 6 k* w; O8 _" K: i( U3 U8 j) }
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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A1 R& g' A. b6 Z8 N"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 1 ]/ ]% }8 w Y
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 0 Z: }, M5 D9 |. o, ~
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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5 X; r# W7 d' S9 M! c% \) j"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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# c9 I2 X) ?2 L8 k& b/ T6 K"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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9 Y# y: I8 G K$ u$ m! Y0 o5 \"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. + @+ Y1 M& @! A9 o" |
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 5 |; Y* B, h+ a% u. }$ Z
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 3 f8 E! {9 e+ G$ H8 _6 J( S f1 O% H
6 |$ W7 r/ j0 h, Z6 A. e, sHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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( O8 A7 w! \2 o# n; qExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. " O" c2 [6 Y8 w/ f
$ S% a8 w) C/ pOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. G6 L! k8 z, h$ w9 W
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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; M* s! A+ `1 T7 {, K# }Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ) u9 e6 f1 N G4 {( d8 t
& d+ k+ }0 j3 ~- P; d: F"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. - U3 b: E. @- j$ W/ j
Q3 R: K1 ?- m9 h& A7 {* {+ nLet the good times roll. ! _. T/ v; f- F$ L
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Previous story: Bottom Line
+ M- J( \" z- L, ANext story: Building permits hit record+ m' o/ @1 n' w: T- B% ~
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