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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20075 _9 E: i, u+ P
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN" D* r& T) C6 t; s& l4 R
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2 F5 B% m9 m: f; x" d7 KThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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& |/ D$ z# C3 d% `- w PMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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! c8 x2 K2 V- U9 j+ BBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ) y: _+ P( q5 N5 d( R% Y
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." + [. S. i- H9 M0 Q
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ; e' P1 {1 s" [# D" E
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ) K9 u3 m! j8 d2 P
% ~$ \8 j# A8 |' s3 X1 ~/ y"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ' P! u4 B7 C6 U: M
$ _0 M) J$ Q; @4 @/ kStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 3 m c- A5 V1 i7 ?1 ]6 w% u
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. # a2 g% r: M& h7 m- ~/ H' V. H
5 B2 s( W2 Q$ t) `3 x4 {( k% |/ Z"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. % P. k4 l0 I$ w/ x8 O' d
& |& Y! z4 C' i! V* j2 W& YSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ! {& y2 o- y' X! B! I2 e
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Let the good times roll. \2 q4 Z, h1 F! D) m
[. j* t) ^ G8 [( SPrevious story: Bottom Line5 w( Z7 D Q, S9 U5 Q! s% \9 F
Next story: Building permits hit record
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
