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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com1 m' x" f$ l9 E: H) y* B6 u4 y# r- Y
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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2 W/ T9 c# {, d& {4 uPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
. h' _8 n' c! Z1 Y4 kBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN4 |4 d8 n& ^& Q4 Z5 i/ N5 T/ }
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 4 f8 t/ v% R/ L" Y+ m6 i, M( F
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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6 r. Q- N3 ~0 Q; OBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ' S2 M U6 |1 c" X% V1 O
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. - {- Y6 k" r- h+ \' b8 Z3 M
4 u+ @8 Q5 r- [Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. % r+ ~4 \) g1 H9 t/ U; [
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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1 p k% r$ ~. z" e9 [2 c! q9 ~Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. / Q: ^ b( J$ W
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. $ n2 a9 O. K. n9 b( l) N
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ; w' i4 F1 n" @, _) q$ e6 s' v
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 2 y* h" ^; d6 c h0 G) F
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, ~- j! p3 O; ]$ bHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." * ^; S9 f" E, y6 Y# S
: C! Y x2 y3 @+ l" {Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. n( B* R" e8 j, v; f0 C
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ( f N) N9 x) J6 T7 h
8 x m. l9 v- ~: U"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. / U6 F2 M( f5 `9 s; Y9 C g
# s, K$ }4 [; _6 q7 kSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. `) l* X5 [5 W
# |8 s' |( s# i; s c0 IYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. , }' a- t. j3 `% [# B- u2 Q8 M
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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9 V5 O7 C5 Y8 F" S# p7 X0 OLet the good times roll. 2 U* f8 b- N$ Z- R. A
5 F0 F5 h V# e* D# R: ePrevious story: Bottom Line
+ g: p% A) T# l' M) TNext story: Building permits hit record' I6 B& a/ A( s. }; Y F# v5 Q
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