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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com6 f7 M) z, c9 }6 a- `: m# o/ o/ j
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
/ \+ a+ k1 \# tBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN+ ^2 S! G; L7 Q i
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- `* c3 X8 m4 K: L# }, f+ kThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ) O$ r/ c9 w9 c; w- m. C) C
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+ o! d) i, [4 P"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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* f o! y2 J! p, R# I1 _8 xShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. - o. T& V1 v. w! q! U4 O- T' }
, y4 F6 X- {1 D% A8 oCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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. z! G1 D0 U6 q, ~"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. : V) `( K2 U0 s B3 s
7 ~) S+ G( S% |$ f' w"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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, c1 o+ A/ }- {7 r3 d"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ! k$ b' ?# \& q2 l
# P3 ~0 C5 F% |1 {"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT ! V* [5 e% q/ \
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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7 O& x; J9 d7 O( cOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 6 J1 u; a- o9 d
) w' \$ X. k$ VHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 9 a; J+ j( z, i
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. " O! s& |0 h' S! i$ Y! x( l
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. # X( X% _1 L6 h; c2 K! ~ c4 c
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. , V$ J5 m+ v* ?
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Previous story: Bottom Line4 j9 m: X% a. b4 v+ ] u* W
Next story: Building permits hit record
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