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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑
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, v/ y7 `# j, w/ g" f% j0 U4 \有一定道理，最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头，年底回到60元。他还有一个观点，大家也应该意识到了，各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底，大家的日子就好过些了。, k( [# W2 b$ a+ P( f5 _% ^; R' p
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Man who called the oil crush now sees this
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, y3 ?" ?+ b2 g2 O; Kin Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017- l) r5 `" n! U: o; r3 J
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Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.) p. W4 J; P$ l4 ~' N/ F' C
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Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.
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# K- f3 Z2 {+ R( T# l' R. p' LNow, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.9 ^- l7 T: U7 S: }4 G# E( t
7 Q: ~+ g# T' D9 e$ F“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”: b& h' r3 j& c) H: ~6 w
' c( n; \+ {1 g. }2 q. lCrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”# E3 B- O* S" o3 c! Z" S1 [8 T, y
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The increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.
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Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”
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“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”
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* J: k- Y( |9 T; O7 e# ^" C: {Looking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking
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Furthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.
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0 a& G' E; f% \8 P2 H8 ?2 `Source: CNBC
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狗仔卡
发表于 2017-4-1 15:51
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发表于 2017-4-4 08:58
之彦老弟误会，阿稳肥妹与我老无有恋情，国内也已经劝退24岁嫩妮了，只讨了个身患慢性疾病的浦东失婚农妇做老伴，不日返还阿尔伯塔打点咖啡厅力工聊以糊口，你钻头赴俄罗斯销售方向我觊觎染指一番牟取微利，老弟你看咋样？谢了之彦！
