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发表于 2019-5-15 09:00
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Black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.3 z6 G# I+ c& ]- f% T5 A' u
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The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:7 v W5 x1 c# F7 I" e
. c" z( A5 {6 e" r+ z: ]% O1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
" M0 N# b( G9 X7 L+ W5 F# J2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
( }3 _# s F7 O1 J; C3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. |
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