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Oil prices seen easing with decrease in demand and lower world tensions0 a8 V8 F" z C
Mon Apr 23, 3:24 PM
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By Bill Graveland
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CALGARY (CP) - Geopolitical turmoil may be close to the boiling point in many oil-rich regions but world prices should be headed down next year, according to experts at an international energy conference. ; e: g7 q' T7 j6 z4 X9 I1 [
; d) l/ p' v; U6 [* t( o) Y9 \The weekend election in Nigeria, widely seen as corrupt and provoking unrest, is adding to the fear factor stoking oil prices, as are the West's continuing standoff with Iran, tumult in Iraq and ongoing friction with Venezuela. * {6 C4 Q& t/ E+ D, I
$ P7 S) p. ], s. V# [2 bBut there are signs that crude oil may be headed down from its current level of about US$65 per barrel at some point next year. 9 G. \# M* g: H1 }. {; F
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"The fact is that demand is very weak, the non-OPEC supply is catching up, so you're going to see more pressure on OPEC to cut back over time," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research Inc.
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"That's going to make people feel like there's less of a threat from small places like Venezuela and Iran for political reasons," he added. 7 n3 l) t/ U; g$ _# Y# R6 \
/ e+ b2 [% K% t! x9 G& r; W"I think prices will stay above $50 for the rest of the year but gradually down to the low to mid 40s by next year." * E) M8 d" G; c. k" k! n8 T
George Eynon, vice-president of the Canadian Energy Research Institute, which hosted the symposium, agreed that prices are likely headed lower.
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But he said the new norm will still seem high compared with a decade ago.
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"Fundamentally I think we're looking for a price with a base of about $40 (and) perhaps a price over the next decade of around the $50 level on average," Eynon said.
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"But you have quite a level of volatility, with price spikes well above $50 and $60 and $70 as well," he predicted, adding: "Certainly the very, very high prices will be very short-lived."
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The Alberta government, which has been raking in record oil and gas profits, is expecting the oil price bubble to eventually burst.
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; O/ ~( L9 Y D8 u( q/ [. H% P$ x"We have the most volatile energy stream of any jurisdiction in North America," Premier Ed Stelmach said in Monday's keynote address. , b7 A6 @( Z G5 Y
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"We can't count on revenues always being this high. So we are being prudent and planning for tomorrow." 1 b, q; I& ~. g) d9 \) y
7 I# L# {0 ^& Z7 V; @ S: yNot everyone is convinced that geopolitical hotbeds will be cooling off any time soon.
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"The fear factor is now around (an extra) $15 a barrel and most of the fear factor comes from three countries-Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela," said Shawkat Hammoudeh, professor of economics and international business at Drexel University.
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"But if this becomes stronger over time it could hit over $80 per barrel, if this geopolitical factor has more effect than the fundamentals."
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8 h# A: i( p8 iHammoudeh said the situation in Iran is the most worrisome, because of its influence on neighbouring Iraq and because of the high tension in Iran's relations with America and Israel. ! f3 ]# i/ Q/ O- `
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"You would have to have a (military) strike coming from the United States or from Israel on Iran and I think it would go to more than $80 a barrel," he said.
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( t3 a$ H; ?" q) ?However, concern over Nigeria may be overblown, said Lynch. 2 j7 V" Q6 R1 S* C d% |
3 n- i6 i; ^6 a7 G9 M- `2 J+ j5 V"The Nigerian situation is what people are focused on now and I have been surprised a lot of people have not been paying a lot of attention to Shell's announcement that it has reached an agreement with the Delta insurgents and they're going to restore production there," said Lynch.
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"That would make a big difference, but it's not clear that they will be able to do that and people are waiting for a little more solid evidence that it will go forward." |
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发表于 2007-4-23 13:22
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