埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2891|回复: 10

Long US

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-9-16 10:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Well, I think it is the time to long the US." A2 K8 T# `& O- @
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.% ^1 [- ]8 \0 a
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
+ g% X; ]- b9 a6 r$ Z3 y$ fTD can give you 4.2%.0 _1 ?+ d/ _+ [. N% p; I) \2 y
BMO can give you 4.3%.- h$ j; P+ ~7 z# n
RBC can give you 4.0%.
* L3 O$ x7 e1 s$ G! W/ b; `7 k) x" u(Roughly)+ I! j& y" I1 O0 h
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
( _& W5 w( k0 I. {( J2 rAlso, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.6 X6 V, L( Y" F% m$ N0 P( v
Also, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
2 A% N4 u6 Q6 }7 F" yFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.) E. S) V. Q. E2 ?. b' D
Rough calculation:( K1 Y  G0 O3 _4 X
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
$ j" j4 m' a- {; N3 q- O0 WBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
. @" c  e$ q* }) NDeposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 1040004 H5 D* a& u3 u' a
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
- y$ Z3 J$ R" \0 ]  @! s- ?If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.+ @1 `, U+ J1 d
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
& o/ d8 R/ a3 ~, Z$ C8 rBut, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
0 A$ D$ z0 `' h( i+ X! C4 O( g; W" G/ v" v0 Y3 {: [7 |2 ?$ q1 p3 d& \
All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 11:05 | 显示全部楼层
BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.7 ?' D( I# ~8 g1 W
鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:19 | 显示全部楼层
好多人都在观望18日的利率。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
2 b) G9 i4 U# ]# s/ ~Well, I think it is the time to long the US.2 ^& c/ a6 O  y- Y# Y/ I4 Y  S
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
! i7 X/ s1 I3 ~* x* t" u9 {' |8 |If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...
; c$ D4 E' q8 ~$ V2 R

1 R: x6 j5 `* a& \% |
" i: E( e" q% `" @这帐算得不对吧?
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-9-16 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:26 | 显示全部楼层
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。- a/ i- ~  I# ?/ I% Y8 G
2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。' w. j* T3 b8 n( }$ e* n, F
如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
; J' s0 M& W  a6 l- v) ^! B而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。9 o! X1 w' D% W  t% Z; M$ `
政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴,那就不知道了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-16 20:33 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
3 a. X) a1 {/ Q2 yBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?
& S% q0 f- R; Y, C1 [2 f# R
呵呵,多打了个0。
' ?+ {' Z8 ]+ c. \/ x; ?: h' {& o" o' t5 Y" N1 [- Z# A1 a& \* R
多谢。
* ^( e) W* O. L% R( u/ O/ O* A' j2 W6 {9 I' f- E" e; i
把其他的去掉个0就可以了。
鲜花(87) 鸡蛋(1)
发表于 2007-9-17 06:00 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
/ @+ t! P8 v: F* P4 V8 P' N4 @3 w我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
: h9 R* O" d! g) W2个月左右,还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
0 H- L6 \9 r+ D* y, ?如果这样做的话,美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
1 S& a" @3 ~2 p) f6 x而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。- W: B' V, x. w( q( H
政府也会需要钱。 ...
" o; ^$ G* d! D) X. C% C
但愿如此。 美元今早强劲, 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
6 u; ~1 j. R; @# I6 W: r' y6 p3 r) N9 E$ o( w$ h( c
现在美国经济面临通胀危机,原产品, 石油价格高涨, 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影, 楼市大跌, 破产人数增加, 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:35 | 显示全部楼层
今天北美时间星期1, 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想?
0 @8 r! y( F6 m* f* r0 q还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
# x4 k# r" C+ {如果来次调整的话,估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
' H2 F: W! t3 i) Z+ _& H你说美国政府会不会调整,如果下25BPS的话,会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。+ a1 h+ M2 K4 s2 b8 \7 o
如果我是中国政府的话,我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份,从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-9-17 06:39 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange) K( z0 g( M5 X' q
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask ' V& X! O: R& ]7 p: m
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264
鲜花(2253) 鸡蛋(32)
发表于 2007-9-18 07:30 | 显示全部楼层
If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"1 e" n+ h: E+ A9 Q; u3 u
! x% h7 h! E  B9 T: A2 ?' E7 x
[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-3-23 02:42 , Processed in 0.136453 second(s), 17 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表