Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
, Y  O$ ~/ n$ N( [) zNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
TD can give you 4.2%.
; t) m6 y- Y# B9 Z( z) x5 PBMO can give you 4.3%.
RBC can give you 4.0%.
(Roughly)
) z( n6 v$ l) U/ F& xIf the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
( m' \' k# x, F8 _4 sAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
! y: F3 L4 r5 L# y! xFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
% D; W  B. z" d9 K* g  [  mRough calculation:
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000
$ y- b( U5 v! c* U3 l; `) Q# ADeposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
7 @" {0 G3 k5 `2 o( b, MIf US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
# y9 C" F( b) H8 BIf US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
7 H3 D- s: n+ h! r5 [. ]I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
6 T+ e* o8 J, ^6 u, H2 dBut, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.

: T( @5 S) O8 F- sAll above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
8 |9 w9 A5 z' u9 [. L, x* H! z0 jIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

# |  L* w& U% t" |这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
. \5 O2 w3 N1 o6 Q" U2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
& p# d( M5 z  E0 h2 ?. }8 q9 S0 e政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

呵呵，多打了个0。
% s3 R5 ]: i3 A% y" G
1 O. o6 }' T1 {% i. R3 p% L多谢。

把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
- S$ U' t7 y" C9 U' i; B8 `& O9 V我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
6 E- g$ \' F/ x- Y) p5 ~* I. D2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
1 l* r( I( S) U如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
- V" L2 g8 |5 {政府也会需要钱。 ...

2 \# B) _- g# e2 E9 x但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。

现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
0 ]  L' S1 ]3 }3 Z9 i2 q你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"

" v4 k2 z* P8 u2 u[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]