Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
" T- S& P7 y0 n1 C/ \Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
8 ^/ m3 ?8 ?( t7 v" U/ jNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

$ [6 n( S) F( p  L7 i2 @Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
; M* x' z( e) ~4 U; @4 D9 ~
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
4 l) n& V) b/ {  q; h
9 l: o: H7 Y$ T3 q: pSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
' X% C) z- B4 ?, m2 E2 ^
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
3 {) O; j9 ~0 u2 f; `: x9 a
/ r+ M+ \1 D+ x; @9 `4 k9 `8 |4 nJul 2007
& K5 g2 q, P6 f* L1 ?. q( n NA
9 n/ G4 i  U  V. v  b, j 2328
717
" B$ D+ U) w) I/ ] 442,752
9 ?9 w0 N8 M! P3 R" u- M& z 410,000
320
$ u+ Y4 n+ C" ?0 y; r8 l7 ^+ P 28
31%

Jun 2007
# J0 @8 ^: G% e  @/ ~ NA
2661
1011
/ C; G2 t! L6 e: X/ e' A- k 442,817
; u3 U& k: e9 t+ u9 e% _; V8 F 409,000
328
3 Z$ K# N; K5 M) p/ B% B/ G* ] 22
38%

May 2007
$ r  _1 m. k# {2 a  J( ^ NA
2288
! n' s  ^) j; `8 a. X5 l& w 1261
451,216
: d# i3 i: M) H9 T% K3 P+ U  J 415,000
# E0 C6 X% v, ~ 322
% R8 a$ v3 J7 o4 f 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
# f( U& ]% z( _5 Y  u鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
# a/ I: v% P! O' z$ k
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
# u; M& V1 }) T# X5 y" {9 b/ D
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

# Q0 Y6 o$ K  n8 B0 l+ N+ F这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
$ j8 B& O* a4 r8 \Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

' Q& C/ T4 J" P6 m) v+ `

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
- W# Y6 A( e* v% J8 N4 Z0 o& bgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
7 |; n  m4 K9 K6 K$ K. xIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
% V) N" d# M; P6 |How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

- \- `$ I, G- p4 y, Q3 d! x
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
9 m# }" |; x7 R  e2 }MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

- u; t3 M' e# ^QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
: i& L1 s4 ^+ @% c7 k: h  d
+ Q+ g/ Q3 w8 Y1 M; q4 o, e
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

, |/ Q# [! H9 s9 T( {

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
% I/ }% q% i: ?- C( D1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
/ ^8 t3 _$ N8 a* x8 M/ G2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3 R! N4 G1 {+ w/ d  U) J9 x1 K: W3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
; [" R. }. Y3 Y9 M0 l
, h- W; m& e5 K2 r- x: e
+ P( @$ f9 m& x: M) `& c& ]7 W
* N: V. R( Q  t1 ^: a% C+ X+ _  d只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。