Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
8 Z) F1 {: w7 H3 YMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
: v, a( i; I  z1 }  l/ N
8 K1 g" d8 j, R# H: GDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
/ W, a) I; K% i
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
7 B$ B/ |% g; G0 p* k0 v
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
/ f4 t/ {+ t9 X+ A* t# L 2328
717
442,752
" _9 h; x4 d" t# q 410,000
' v8 F# [$ J* i, O, e 320
28
31%
& F: ]* w6 N$ C  s5 Q5 c. G
8 S& h4 d2 N7 o" V5 `Jun 2007
NA
7 ]- B, M3 o# u* {; k. a& h9 T 2661
1011
442,817
409,000
9 U9 S$ d( g* W) { 328
, j, k# j6 M) }$ c" b5 ] 22
38%

% t+ k6 e6 f( F6 F4 p7 y5 Z) }" DMay 2007
NA
9 q% X$ |2 w0 ^ 2288
% t: R. p5 G6 q8 N; l6 N" g 1261
451,216
415,000
& k$ z/ L! m% U% y" [. X 322
7 O) r" d- o" i& v# u4 t 19
7 I. r% R4 b/ T3 f 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
8 B+ X9 s2 e4 g/ _4 H$ b鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
( ?# v; X# X, r) c8 F这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

: M( l3 p5 f8 ?; |用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
1 ]% H& t6 P  ^7 _  A2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
; Q3 e8 f  _% A( q! y3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
" n$ F! U, Z1 u* b  O0 M. K, h6 m" q存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
* }! E& o. P. X" k$ U+ \& I* @- d$ n鉴定完毕！

" k" R% a: n' |3 p4 }: S8 D! M( \
* [$ Q+ K8 e& J  a3 c( N呵呵，太不专业了吧。
6 ^, n  N# B  C; p
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
* S) I. ~; ^! O
) ~. N( s' ^  r; b; I就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

- f9 r  R, q5 D  C0 B- Y

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
! s0 I6 @1 \- \5 tHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
+ p( r0 c" F; Z+ C$ hThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

- f6 b3 b4 j8 N6 d1 j: m: b% e
1 Q, u* N  x4 e' g. [I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
, _+ _  |- _) Y8 O( yMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
9 I$ B% P8 d. [/ A" N  |1 Y1 xIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
3 k8 X5 ?  q* ^# p% t* JNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

( E6 r$ f5 u+ x' d- \: K3 }7 OQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


4 g2 n3 z( ]# v1 |( s6 Z% KI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

7 ]. G+ i( ^& F2 L2 v4 q6 L下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


4 f2 ~" ]5 J' z+ Q  U3 q. ^
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。