Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
! i% G# T2 p9 q( @MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
$ |: ^" E8 ^! i$ n0 H1 S# LNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
+ i2 `6 }9 k) H( v
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
$ r/ e! D: c# G( r
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
) I& v  r( N$ Q; M2 `! K
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
& C+ S/ g$ g: y' P  S
Jul 2007
' z( k" B0 S: J; z, s NA
- ?( Y( L$ Z* J$ [ 2328
2 ^: u% l( K6 y: u9 K! a 717
442,752
410,000
# h$ s# t, z0 d+ h6 p7 f! t 320
1 ~+ Y" Y6 x3 i9 d) U) ?) b$ V 28
31%

6 g* w* _: u) ^* v7 g5 ?Jun 2007
0 S  S4 ]& e7 U) d0 Z NA
9 X5 K8 o1 v1 o4 I* J 2661
5 C6 C( ?1 N- R6 Z- C 1011
442,817
# o( ^/ E8 N2 B 409,000
' \2 H1 p/ N/ d( ~0 j2 N 328
! {1 p% I7 k/ ~+ {! V 22
& A/ V( Z2 n! z 38%

May 2007
NA
7 m3 z' [( C& i! u 2288
1261
451,216
415,000
322
  ]1 I8 I& t2 k* a# r( }9 d 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
& X/ P! c0 L4 F* ]鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
& s0 ~( N) B6 e) G4 `鉴定完毕！

6 K. T" b7 I! w5 w' N
( L1 g) T0 }/ L  K4 q( R用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
9 n& ~1 _: v. ^3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
" h3 g  C# c+ T鉴定完毕！

2 \& `4 }) T. _0 p7 V9 w呵呵，太不专业了吧。
2 `! v$ Y# l9 p& I5 |' `" G
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

4 A8 K/ p: A" r/ |4 E这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
1 Z5 R, k0 v2 }Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

; X0 p$ n, R, z8 `5 m

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
6 G3 H/ D  R6 s1 G; Q% }- wHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
1 v% x( H# `. p8 [That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
" a7 u8 V, B! e1 Z9 U$ ]Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
  B* p+ V# d# WHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

. h1 l' ~9 c2 w* u: BI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
) T1 b6 W: j1 T8 hMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

& U: f( n( O3 O0 |% y9 qQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


7 h. K, `6 J& d/ e* k6 Z) K/ j# s- ~3 jI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
( o! n$ O" v# R3 H/ b1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
+ X1 n5 |4 x3 b" V2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

" \3 D& C* h7 s& B$ E1 p
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

% u2 O, G2 D3 a; r. M' b
( {5 d0 a; f) n6 P1 s
+ r# q0 }& L5 i0 T1 p% m只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。