Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
9 v8 W) y/ e2 p; r5 v. M: y7 bIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
2 A9 [/ I. `* H; w! NNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

; r9 X' T: t0 JDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
: b. a! c, v& y% ?0 l% J7 H. @% b
& J& ?* x& }5 V! k: Q1 a: P1 m  qOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

$ W8 |3 e' o: \; fJul 2007
NA
2328
717
9 h) I: {  L. i4 b! w) N. }. }( { 442,752
410,000
1 E0 g! R1 y& t3 g7 C9 q. C 320
28
31%
0 Y5 X( L5 |9 _, q
Jun 2007
. f. t, I5 W% ]8 V, s NA
2661
- \! Y: m% w7 ]2 l 1011
442,817
409,000
/ V2 H9 g( E- y4 i0 J 328
22
38%
7 T0 @9 `2 A2 G9 d! G; @  J
May 2007
NA
2288
1261
1 L/ s+ V9 I, a2 A# U3 ^ 451,216
415,000
$ a# E" x4 V4 m8 l9 B9 x 322
19
% f# @- }! R6 X, N5 V" f6 E 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
5 d* @* s1 b' Q- ?* k. l) G/ F鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
+ C6 M* d' n, g% \存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

+ K: H  ?* U6 ?1 L
$ ?# H* z' e7 y( a, V" a! V# C用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
2 L& M( L3 X) C, v存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
1 q# h3 M3 @# P& a3 K2 T2 Y5 Y鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
: ~' r* Q$ `  a) `! F  S! g' ]
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

1 I2 G( [6 t& X( B" L+ f这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

) @+ K& J# A5 ?3 K2 E% R

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
# b$ }( g6 {4 a4 s2 WDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
' V( I% b7 B, M, BHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
' l' b# h7 |1 A/ n/ z1 l* UThat is what i say half full or half empty.
! A$ R7 J# i, |# a; c0 Igood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
  m" V+ f& B3 G$ tIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
- ~3 R" A( I6 z$ jHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

% h" K, G& ?3 Q6 g4 A5 x+ D" r+ q
5 ]# @3 P; N, V% s7 t( T8 iI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
" U9 j4 o+ t# DIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

& }. I; H% N- ~3 F; {
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

0 a0 f9 j9 N8 T

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
( J+ \; K+ ~- ?. `1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
! J1 _& }! l$ ]9 q0 L2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
, O& S6 W/ m* X  S3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

" R% |5 t$ z' }8 \* x6 ^1 d3 v" Q
, z0 \( `) P* a' Y% H8 ]5 J下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
0 g- r- M0 H6 }8 A2 ?

4 t$ m/ U; f7 p9 R7 y5 R
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
  ^5 U; c8 X# J, W看来，观察days inventory 更重要。