Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
6 L" t  [* |3 ~6 z& _1 xMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
2 O5 l; }8 \( c5 ]Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

2 @0 Q! j6 W. c: G& o; t. P8 P# ~Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
) p$ w9 ]3 D, y
5 O  p' y- x$ Z7 F+ N2 wAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
: N# f1 M" U! G' I* h, C& C  W
* h0 \8 j+ m5 yJul 2007
# R6 j1 W! H- b' o5 U NA
# o) M9 t5 X! t" i+ j$ x- j 2328
1 `0 A: Z- W. Y/ V 717
9 q  [7 c! h& ~1 t3 w8 j 442,752
410,000
320
28
: ?$ S! L0 Q3 h; ~! @ 31%
+ x# B# e% M. T" Y# Z# Q$ b; Q
' v" U3 y9 a) Y) U& Z5 z; _Jun 2007
$ F: Z1 K# o8 A1 S6 G& j: l NA
) D* V( {+ Z, ]5 v0 r 2661
1011
442,817
2 _- j+ O- J/ t; K- {7 o# g 409,000
: G7 p( ?! ?& |+ @: P0 z 328
22
38%

May 2007
1 H/ [, E! f  c+ w NA
2288
2 X7 O( y0 n3 c6 Y4 E; Q& f' c% H 1261
, M8 s' J! y3 E$ @! u1 G 451,216
415,000
322
8 |' b' A& s+ {. h0 y 19
* \7 u& w; G0 S; b0 Z 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
9 ^* R0 C4 b  q# m" l这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
! a$ W7 K  M% l5 P存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
  E2 i) U8 L& `1 a& V: p4 h2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
8 o+ R, h% z- n1 K3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
; k0 W7 {' D8 D/ L8 P/ l  P鉴定完毕！

" E7 u2 p  P) r2 i. \
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
) R2 g  G  v+ S4 S
5 J$ A$ Y8 E4 m  l; m就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
' y# e4 h4 T: C% F% z) l" |7 v+ W
3 X7 @! F9 i/ J3 y3 n2 Q这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
2 g: e7 y* ?/ R  V. F) G7 pThat is what i say half full or half empty.
0 _7 U( r7 Q# J3 tgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
  R8 F: O2 W! k8 t' V5 fIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
7 G1 g% f! @; P* zHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

4 m( K8 |" b8 _2 c* [3 i0 bI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
6 }0 l4 M2 J/ j' FEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
" K. d4 a- {7 }, o, A' I, ?* _2 I- C% pNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

0 b  W3 B: j2 [. P- r
( ?! L* O8 P& t- K3 aI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
$ w5 V6 @* B, e! W; S0 g1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
2 i+ x6 |5 K: a  B" c2 M+ C3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

2 v9 M2 ~' k- d3 ~
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
+ ^7 U" q5 }% l) k+ ?6 d* M. @


2 E" e1 q' c5 K  U# |只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。