Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
. H# H. \" _& y, x& o8 N0 W5 @7 OIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
" e0 }5 `3 n- G6 dNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

8 z+ B, }' p( X9 x5 pSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
5 J$ m+ p* h* {* @, V. `
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2328
5 }& C$ ]2 E# Q; }7 j! S2 @7 | 717
442,752
4 `9 r8 l' j5 A5 F% E 410,000
: P3 r& n4 j( I. r 320
- E% t0 a+ |9 Q. J' s- X2 E 28
31%
* V- m& i% v$ z8 j5 x
Jun 2007
NA
7 s+ i' i: I7 f% ` 2661
1011
442,817
) x) I6 K& k5 S$ N0 `0 D5 g5 z% V 409,000
328
22
, M' o4 R5 J$ b0 v8 Z 38%
: E3 r" a3 H. D9 R" x) H
May 2007
NA
2288
- Q* G. `+ }  P/ O5 W$ d  V 1261
! M% |0 j! V8 ~3 b% @) | 451,216
415,000
322
% F4 `9 f! o7 e 19
7 N- n  z: V" D7 D/ y$ ? 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
$ S: @& i0 |/ L; b存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

# V- @  j4 z/ }& E4 Z3 x% E
+ F# s) O8 g1 p- s; X用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
+ L- ?+ O" ?* r; V3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
) V+ S, u% h5 e; F2 B鉴定完毕！

6 y3 d1 g/ |; J5 h* U" l" ~, \
! v5 }# d: h$ N3 x5 l+ O- b  i呵呵，太不专业了吧。
- Q4 A0 e. _7 m! T
( [4 z% j- t" a  f新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
5 s2 L" y! m0 r- ?7 K3 F
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
, G( V2 B. d( w9 J
; ?  V9 m  c; z+ m8 F这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

% W) X! P* g9 ?# b9 i/ \, |

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
9 I8 t& R- W2 S* d; G* }8 P8 z& QIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
* G4 Q/ _1 \/ h( wgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
. @  Y# C+ a1 T; L* LIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
6 j3 U; X9 H9 g1 N- O* ?6 xIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
8 N- _" Z0 d8 d! YHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

! a3 a% e- a: \$ [6 o5 uI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
- R( B+ s' r% W- @5 u" GEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
) L6 x. I0 g8 V3 V7 E& i: {

9 T2 e# f1 R! i0 r# C% ?1 oI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
  H( v7 U# `+ a- `6 c. w& Q! i3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

; y! F8 ^5 E( Y+ F$ _& Y
7 O" P( R! H& l9 [3 Y" O下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



: _2 Z# `' G% o" }. g8 ~" a5 I只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
5 _& \) A" e; ]! ]1 q看来，观察days inventory 更重要。