Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
$ V3 b% P' D5 S/ k5 i7 pNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

$ S. P% \! v& C2 W+ D" tSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
3 S+ @# y- m. v# a. G9 k9 ^) }
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
+ u% ^+ V' g( c# y' h( ~2 ^3 h
Jul 2007
! h8 G) i+ D: K* q NA
2328
# z( c0 s3 k( K& k 717
442,752
8 M% _0 O0 r2 H+ O 410,000
320
28
* |* @! H; A5 j- c# w4 p1 |( E 31%

Jun 2007
- L3 w4 o& `; k) c NA
9 g0 o, q  m7 B# s# X* ^/ ^# p. h 2661
1011
442,817
409,000
328
' B+ ^* b5 J& y5 e1 ^% ~ 22
38%
0 j3 n$ N2 j$ u, z0 T
May 2007
& p( P8 h* F/ p NA
7 C+ I2 Z% I( l4 F6 j2 v) k 2288
! r& V  j$ v8 t/ \5 m2 n, ^8 O7 _( y 1261
1 ~4 w. I& \3 d3 R4 ] 451,216
( i  k. B# a" A) i% U 415,000
322
+ z+ j. A% C2 a2 N+ o$ k7 b" [ 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
6 n7 O) c+ M2 G2 t+ [, G% ?' l* Y& K鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

/ C5 F& b* K# ?
$ W/ R+ G2 R8 t5 q" ]! X用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
- c1 z( J) e9 V# v) T3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
% X5 t' `1 @3 G$ r& @存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

- u9 _, Y- T( Q8 D呵呵，太不专业了吧。
( X6 V! b# o( Z: e
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

4 Z& N* c# M. w, f1 ^) K5 \# E) K  W: H就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

5 v1 i/ q! r% ~% E2 Y+ u这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
- q5 a0 p( E6 E: W% b- vDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

& K+ |* X7 t( T9 O3 c
6 v) d. t" p3 \; T3 U5 K  l

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
4 q/ b9 B2 W4 v- N) H+ kDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
3 g# W" l. W: Y4 o" V+ |$ Z5 MIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
# I2 w/ w/ f4 MHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
0 T# F/ p$ M! X7 a4 Ygood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
* y* V( l! D" @. k6 X5 c3 ~: T% JIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
  C4 M! j1 i3 i2 oIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
" ~2 @( P9 D1 w+ fHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

7 |3 u2 c$ c# SI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
9 G( A; T' _) f# K; \MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
$ j8 m- d  s0 T, F$ G6 @- WNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
4 a, o9 L- G: v5 E# t

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
2 s& @1 o, u1 C5 }5 [6 k; w# Q1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

! O4 \6 B; C/ |
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


9 D3 @5 e9 P1 j- ~2 P  ~( {6 x
* Y" d% u+ t' ?# y5 n只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
( q" z2 i+ v( w# p看来，观察days inventory 更重要。