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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
W6 ?9 T! D/ B1 j2 D6 [ TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US& C, |; }) q3 |# }. v' U1 ?& B
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern* s) X: {* N0 {0 u- k. k
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
% o+ L8 f0 r7 }# KTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
& s0 U$ y- i9 _6 G# ?$ R* C% B: Q, Aand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
7 o0 n$ z3 \% C; yupbeat.! f6 D% u3 m( L' G1 w/ g; U a
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded% }' t l0 F( W9 E; m \5 l
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects# \) w$ q% ?6 c! m/ k+ x# l8 o
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real1 V: s' y" J9 K
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
* X) L% P& F0 g) E. Brepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
/ }. h. F" C6 B8 VOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world- w( Z) ]* M7 R* y
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
' M1 P, T5 _# c5 } According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian$ [& f4 c N* o$ [2 |
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment$ f6 b: a; C+ _1 }5 G
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to9 }# g4 v0 a7 X6 K9 W( b2 X4 U
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record1 o6 {8 ~0 z( g9 v
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
+ T6 O! Q; E( r1 [4 c According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
$ c6 N7 p/ L) ^3 \border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
# V1 P- f6 @7 e$ Y4 kspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey7 q4 I; q( z$ }+ {) X2 a
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
/ O$ ^4 C7 B. @8 dcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be& b& o L, S2 J' F2 Y" }
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent." ?( @" \, T9 t' J' }9 e
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian: V7 K2 Q `2 @/ P# v
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by L7 h9 r" d) M+ n6 g: M7 c
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land& T7 j: [ w3 K z! J
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country3 x$ Z J. c$ V
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating' g- ? m: I; l2 M8 ]: C& \# w
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The$ u& B0 s. W) E
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
) y4 v: n4 G' Etake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
0 m0 s. o; T4 w1 K) Xsingle-family housing looks overpriced.0 n1 q# |% h; c% ], O3 r) W
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with5 ]0 \$ J. o" A |6 u* ~3 c
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian. C2 E- m, W( ^+ G e
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
6 n* u h( Y% } Khigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
5 c3 }- u7 Q* A7 ]# S7 r3 |% anew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,6 Z0 E. x9 Y5 [: k( Q
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental1 u: k* i' t# a( ^! u+ ~
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
. N6 ^3 M7 D9 I; p# b4 B, m1 S* Y) r awestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
& ~8 |6 i8 R; n9 Oshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
' e0 w6 e% a2 y3 M# ~the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
( T5 N/ Q! B# `/ O& {in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.: e8 @) I& \" E8 S& u
% o* d% P& Q( v; j* }" {2 q Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central; Q1 ^2 r" P1 `
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour3 E3 r/ p2 ~( ?5 [$ J9 v! r1 h
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
! e8 R" n& y4 C+ v% Einto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
$ ]' b+ i7 ~) v, O" z6 odowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical& j3 b! p- z0 T9 P; H o& H& o
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out& ^& I6 }6 T( Y5 C$ Y& A
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment; T7 e, A9 z+ }, @: P4 R
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
) W0 x0 b" G n# Qwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.) ^9 [. ^9 B; \% I
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high3 V% L& }2 Q8 G! D6 E, x3 B& G8 q
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.5 c; ~, }& z* [" w
) e& k# ?. Y! G& X! X! P! }
Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
f6 B8 E0 K2 a0 |5 H% Wboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
B7 ^1 z, x% f) m4 Xbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
' {9 v1 H' I, i3 U48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
: t8 `' p X3 q& v# ?Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale. s$ {9 K: g4 O, X7 h" E1 g# U
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the0 k. o8 R1 [% X
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays: Q6 w# K# W( m8 C3 i, e
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver7 k( K. D7 T2 P. ~* G+ X
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
. W/ p8 y* p- x; x9 R# z$ r! Y2 P1 Gbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous9 g4 N7 G" |5 H5 ~+ D1 L
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
1 e2 s9 _( D7 s4 Amarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
' b6 Q* J+ v9 L F' V' s, qgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy% p- F- A# X" M+ N; @
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3% S/ x" J1 F5 ] S, s3 N. d; l
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%' Y0 p8 ^8 V x! b
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very1 s }: [: ?, f1 w w
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.5 R8 w! m: q0 j+ A L: ^
7 S" U* `5 m h8 z9 [4 r A Toronto T& X: m% n: } s
B% d$ l! B9 x, o$ a) E Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and/ W% h- x0 E; ]
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is8 s0 k/ K, Y5 ^/ H6 w7 q
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing& U6 B5 z: ]. H! E% Z# X# Y
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
- @6 C& c k; {5 B0 L8 ]Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square( F, A G0 Q. b+ j; {
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and7 ]3 ]" p" \/ @$ b; @
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
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9 q5 b: @4 u* s* o. G Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
! }/ T8 n/ ?+ z. O7 xgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up; c# X8 b9 p! C a
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in0 a6 s( g2 L- a. r
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate3 K- Y& T0 j% l$ m: B4 [
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
5 r2 t: N6 H+ l. Ahigher as a "hold" recommendation.
$ n( k7 F9 k8 M, c% r
, Z; e- Y; ~' u: K5 v k9 e The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
' t& d9 ~6 v# ~3 T1 z# l1 a$ P: Dinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
n }2 d4 W5 `# Dmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos- b! v' f8 V' |
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
( \5 J% ~: Y$ Foverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current; j( J* [2 Z& F7 G' e3 E
prices."7 O1 A" \" m6 I' B
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at6 O _3 n- y6 \9 `* A- n- w
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.: q: |: }" [! x8 A: l( J) x. q
" c4 i/ @0 c$ a( Q) g' f" ~ About PricewaterhouseCoopers7 u3 A3 C1 V/ E _6 v- @8 Y
/ V$ d; a X: z! @ PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,2 b9 c+ ^- T' ?% ~
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its1 E& n, c7 N+ q( J+ @8 f
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries. @+ H, Y9 i, s$ b; v* k
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
0 S2 v* q4 U6 q1 w& {9 Y J' ifresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
! u0 t8 K+ X& U" b# zexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its' `5 j D4 d! a# e# M5 v
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
# A4 e9 R; \" F+ R* G: ^4 G' Mcountry.
& d8 }4 ?; k& O "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario: r6 e1 g, Y! e" w# d
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
* z4 i- Q8 Z, m$ F! bPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
, F) F# A$ k( D9 aeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.- @- O7 J+ d' U
; c/ [ |* {5 ?/ b0 e L
About the Urban Land Institute4 X! D9 F; a( H7 c: f
( Z3 A5 I, _' ` The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
" S. f, D4 P7 I0 _" r! d$ @" qresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
* o# g, l9 w1 \9 H: R& W9 Lleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
( ]/ _& Q* Z. R/ k; \thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
" r2 s/ D0 W3 W' V3 L* ~than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
, F2 f+ f1 I9 Y4 L3 @disciplines./ D3 P8 U9 e4 O/ Z4 T
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.% r9 U, x% k, r
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
0 E: C1 f. h; {. k# e+ tCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
: i" ^: w3 F, m# L: U4 v0 e" snow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
, D5 C! e6 e. O, K8 L0 |8 ^( k K+ Whosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,$ _2 Q1 s' o8 W( x) b
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake w: ] D- i: h
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
+ h: E' P6 l; p% _* C1 `+ [President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please7 n' J" V7 m# y3 G4 c
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
* `' I+ w9 G( t+ A* X. W a& Nthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.- m9 y$ c9 G w8 h+ Q/ N
6 ^+ W4 q, v) y5 T4 M3 K
" ^' n9 G' U3 @5 O) J8 t, }! G: m+ T; G- D! M9 ~' d, P
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,; R: R+ y1 `5 f$ C; S# A& B* `
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com: a1 a+ k: {0 T- L* p( |
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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