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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat + a: ~0 ~3 D; R
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US W) A4 p/ R1 s2 b( B
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern \% k( k4 _( T! m' J2 k5 a, e, K
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging% B3 X. \8 {+ _- P3 n
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
& f; Z+ Z2 ?+ ~9 J# w$ B: I" Z, aand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more M2 ?) O$ w2 @6 p7 d x% i
upbeat.4 r9 l2 e' z k4 s# z# i
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded- @1 f2 F# ~8 U: Z# _
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
8 c, l" ?- k, k# Z$ [interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real' `6 b) e+ t. y/ H$ p
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company; |3 Y9 k. X9 P- q- f3 g
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.5 B9 J4 J. P! _- I# T
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
8 C& k& r/ T0 t8 E! ~, gincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.( B6 o9 }& X# u$ A. F+ S! z
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian$ h' G. x8 V+ ~" ?4 G
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment( ?! g% m6 N- R8 f: X0 D
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to" A4 F9 }# [/ m3 d
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
. K6 T% j, ^# d$ e! e. Hhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
) B7 H/ D( M% d According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
0 t4 y2 Y6 U* D3 U: Q' K4 u# w3 |, Lborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
& S+ X0 n" z/ x' ]1 A2 nspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
% r7 i4 ~( Q% |8 L: k2 cremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US. [7 T0 c' R% _0 b' A6 m7 U
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
- W9 q3 W' H t3 k. L0 vvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent., U, j6 n0 n3 ]3 n
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian) G% P6 `! k( \
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by4 o+ b7 l+ P3 w$ m, u- J4 ^% p, D. H
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
3 _) o5 r! I+ R$ {1 ^ Gdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
0 J* d1 [/ I+ O& ^" t6 S: }: E4 B; q( Bespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
! u( r4 x6 v5 f1 Y8 K' C$ Y3 N+ edevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
" ^5 B, s! |! M& tresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to3 g- F; R+ U% j* w5 Z) G
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
" i4 D, N7 O. J, w: t; }! S5 Nsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
3 U! V1 V3 C# {3 I- ^ Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
5 S$ D! v$ c- l* {tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian$ h0 S: H' n- _. m6 l
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push2 p& f5 r/ c1 a4 w& B# ]- t# n
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting9 Z6 I* G$ @6 `0 x: g- i
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,4 W/ Y/ `+ C0 `' z( b) o9 p
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
) ] _) N3 j) C6 }* t9 S! K; \( yapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
0 W$ p5 h h/ a# `' J7 j2 T( dwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
5 K. V' R6 [) lshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into, y" C0 E. s' X$ X7 e
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
% @- S2 H& l; b! x! {in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.8 E- _# I/ C. ?2 c/ a0 `
2 u1 Y/ q9 j, X. z: o Canadian Markets to Watch
& a! o) L- F8 Y! E
# J Y" C2 T! J The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
, J+ `8 ]( ?; I6 M& Lcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour9 y/ c+ S7 Q1 d ]
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
2 w. ^2 }( {: a0 V Ainto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in+ {: o ^1 z. B
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical) d+ Z) O+ N: Y/ ^
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out) k- c* H8 k w: ~0 u E* q1 \
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
* `5 u$ K6 t6 q0 U0 z* z; Vprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain8 B- g! N' |. H% L
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
5 Z3 q; b% ~' J$ q/ D! R9 f; SToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
6 ~. k6 G7 t1 F g8 ]8 Lratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
4 P# e9 Q. i" v
" y8 z" r3 ]% h3 W5 _4 C; o Calgary/Edmonton3 c! V" c* s$ q0 b" o& I
: g4 b: u* ^0 y! h r/ \ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
: H8 U D8 S6 {2 b. m5 S$ Z# q0 uboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a6 \4 j- s, d+ O/ x
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,1 z% S. x* o" ^7 V" n
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.& V; d9 g; J% Q+ y& W) `& ?
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
9 @3 U. |/ u! J0 g8 `: ?Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the) [" i3 j. a1 `' N" \: @5 _ G
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
" ~3 r6 t; V1 k* _+ |" R; wstrong, this market will continue to do well.2 y: r' q' W* a
% D! t) U0 J- ^* R& Q9 k
Vancouver
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# q" f6 A# G7 s- e! @% \ Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is+ t% u* H" ?8 p" S7 X* Y# ]4 z# W/ G
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous3 n6 Z' k3 {$ S/ R+ t
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the4 p, f9 N* G5 J% J
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a. Z1 v8 G# I" E2 H1 Q# A
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
* q6 p1 t2 h8 T7 c% Crecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%3 |' S" N; r! I$ k% ~, ^+ y0 ~& A- |
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%8 i2 B$ z) ?2 S/ H9 ^- J) E
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
9 d. {: p: @# }/ Jgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.! E1 a% m$ R' L5 Q, D! H) v
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Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
' ?$ p- d; t) kmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
/ }* e' S. N# xrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing2 r6 m0 O y0 [) N8 s, a0 D
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.7 V9 r" ~% A% [9 r* f
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square6 H/ k; j# m3 K$ U! s4 _* r
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
7 { F+ O( J8 n9 v$ qApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.. i3 Z7 J" N4 ]
9 t( }% l% N7 s. R! m, h! J
Montreal, _, \ Y, V' N! s2 r& d" \
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall/ x; v% x2 s. t7 w; D9 F4 I3 S
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
4 ^) W3 c0 m2 m7 @shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in8 c0 m- t4 \3 W
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
. y# O" C- c" Y7 D; e/ ysectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors6 S* x! A+ r$ I! }2 O/ P
higher as a "hold" recommendation.- G9 F9 J2 e( I% \
6 b) g: z# x2 i& O2 H* e# { The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years3 I9 o1 i; U7 r' b- |( h$ v3 Q8 V
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
8 p2 E8 } F7 N8 I$ s% O9 |markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
; f" S8 U% U0 L5 g: [" P# Dnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest( {% s* X6 n2 l! G$ _
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
+ C' J6 F6 ]9 m: N' ]prices."
5 i d( q9 r7 o$ j* N7 V% z! Y A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at$ ?. e4 @7 s: c: l
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
8 V" U! m# }2 d* ]% K* R9 N V
7 |" ]# K: S _3 l+ A( ]8 b; \ About PricewaterhouseCoopers1 ^# O' U8 D4 h' A. @% q$ K- Y/ `
% ?7 `2 Q% L$ Z6 z; c
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
- R7 a9 [6 i) F- Atax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its" _% a8 G& ^ B- C* A0 y
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries3 ^# Y' X9 d5 m5 Z
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop$ B( X" B# j* h9 p: x& L# J
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
) b' \" V, i3 D9 qexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
! ~1 W; ^1 x) i7 brelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
1 ?6 K. T) V3 T- _( w& [& a# Gcountry.' f8 q3 I0 U' M6 e; b. y
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
& C+ v0 d. F* B* {0 u) | Klimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the- K. k4 O4 `0 r
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
( S' @' w# p& ]. ?/ _$ peach of which is a separate and independent legal entity./ _5 h: y C/ I) {
: J$ `! R$ }* J# \+ v About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
: o5 y0 N% ^/ ?: vresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
# l! f7 P$ f% ^! D [2 e- Z1 h. Dleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
3 ?8 r6 G% H; F' E! xthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
4 @% B9 p b8 I. mthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
: V# b% f3 A9 M: D% cdisciplines.
8 U6 r( Y: I- _1 x" p The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
) T: ]$ `6 Q3 r" r' t4 f; G( fWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District V, C- [5 W# W* X( o( y
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
0 x& j; W" | c6 K" \7 ]now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
' y1 I7 @7 `( w( d, B4 B7 _hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
N' Q6 H5 y# ]) M: q# R, v2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
9 |4 f- O V% `6 Y/ OHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,# l, C! P" o! X& Y! p# {0 @
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
2 I R8 b# F6 f3 ~: H+ K2 k% _call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on6 ~' k# O8 R4 l0 d1 v
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.) G1 T$ k* g9 L/ V( t
8 W' B/ [; U1 w h! S8 A f- x
8 v# {+ J, L! ~$ h3 A% h' B2 {- k- _
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,4 U: _* T) L! n
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com3 _5 E% H8 Z7 O" R% z
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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