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Attention Real Estate Reporters: , ]6 W7 e' m- e& A& M$ J) Y
( `# s* [, e4 ^ p# x
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat # J6 Z8 u* q- C8 D: y0 r
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
$ G/ X+ ]: {( D- I8 q1 D6 ~- Jcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern0 ^7 f; V! ?" _/ B
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging2 {9 n+ q {7 c" q# {
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)( \8 m' o0 h/ j0 D! r
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
! _# V4 C* K) s1 g6 Y7 M0 Iupbeat.
, ^$ B' J i# V3 T e Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded/ A Q/ v/ r) |$ Q3 A" V
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects9 ]8 l3 Y) }' i0 O! g
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
0 U3 d) g9 b4 A/ h) g' x. Y& {0 |estate experts, including investors, developers, property company3 f4 `8 y/ u6 j
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
: I- f# `4 M& o3 qOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
: s% b- g7 q' w* ^9 v7 U' \8 Cincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
1 o- T7 ~: E1 L& y According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian0 O) [) ?; `2 m, m0 ~
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
5 q0 T- n( `2 s Tenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
) \# R' j4 {; N- B3 n% n7 e+ Dbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record6 g# ^! j. G' V, X3 B" j2 j. G6 _
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
: P. }: {0 b. {4 V According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the4 f& B- ]; V( D
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game2 A9 x5 j; k) Q, Y, g+ J3 ]* Q
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
7 u3 p0 M) i3 y2 J9 x; F6 c$ }: G; Tremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US, S: I+ d1 u4 _1 K" l
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be8 X: z l& M- q' ]
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
0 q/ j7 j0 _2 O5 r2 {" g; ~ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian7 t/ u9 G+ Z; @; H+ a( s
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by$ t! n; m }! ^/ X
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land4 R j4 e6 @8 n. g1 s
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
; _/ W* X6 |+ [' _( j# Mespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating1 ]4 h0 h9 K- g4 u
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
R# h& y$ f1 Yresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to9 f& N3 W/ K+ [1 p' z8 m
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
+ ]& j; D% y' R( j' U5 R" k+ l9 e9 Ksingle-family housing looks overpriced.# j* p. y4 m& s! R3 ~5 B3 w2 [
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
& D( T$ A( I) h1 i$ ^6 ltenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
# Q4 a- E6 z$ P$ mmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
2 v: S1 ~: X+ \7 khigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
; G5 e" G$ `) c+ w' w5 Anew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good," R/ E# c+ U* ?
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental; I8 W* I( F' l6 X
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
3 M8 |! N7 ~6 M; Vwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
( T8 Y; z- }, Q' Sshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into! {- k' x7 _2 m3 }
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
9 O8 n. x7 [1 g/ K( P- i) Cin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
, [3 l/ C$ `6 M. H- Q4 y. r K* N) D( c
Canadian Markets to Watch* Q) e' H1 j( l i0 H
" i# R* {% ~+ t5 B The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central `' r1 Z8 J" w- ]
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
, Z( S8 @. X# p& h* Nneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
. s" `# Y! }8 t: K- ]$ }! Binto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in% O' d/ }$ ?# h7 R( A' N( v# B w& N
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
9 K9 @# `+ Z x+ V9 Rprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out6 |7 \* k) Z, S. Y
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment3 k- h6 k% P+ X, v: p. s
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain$ N( k' t) J. c" u. C
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
1 U3 h" I7 L) ^) EToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high& P7 \9 P$ p' j) `
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.9 N, U g8 |7 t* o$ q5 R
* ^/ T" `0 r, S Q- j* s Calgary/Edmonton) d; [. o9 Y" p- b; @/ C5 w$ ^ A
! p7 A( C0 J/ C* N Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
* b4 M3 n/ L! Z y% dboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
1 J/ T+ L4 n% c5 I( x0 w ebuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
5 ?2 }$ n+ _2 u% s48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.5 G* D' N3 T$ `& L6 F
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale) {' y" w. {0 V2 J8 Z! L1 `" y
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
& V+ x. ?+ V, Z: R* B: [2 cCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
% v @, i/ G6 m- x3 f- Z) D3 |9 ]strong, this market will continue to do well.8 d) F }1 t- q, h9 ^
7 w' k6 Q! p& b
Vancouver
! v5 l% W: s, L: C3 _4 U4 c
5 v* w9 N' k9 {8 I6 i Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
. d5 q6 O* E% ^( A& ^6 r% V% c/ P& c7 obooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous; Y' o ]- q& R6 n u0 X1 i
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the3 K7 U. u2 h' X6 _
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a+ }& t: Z- Y/ w: c6 L' D* _% L: e
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
3 j6 q7 h- J& c$ @3 Orecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%! n2 `- r* X/ r+ c L7 n) E' F2 n
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
: W& j8 j' O; j' E: C! l1 u( w& Bfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
4 U7 Q: n# ]) y+ h" m8 g# igood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
$ R* I8 y% _/ O) S
4 c d0 _1 b, Y$ [; ~/ L2 w Toronto& M/ n/ D! D$ @0 X1 I. E" x
0 K" y- J/ A, u3 y$ |; `$ d/ B, \
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
; N# x/ m$ U/ S1 c+ H7 Emanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
/ H0 m) [) n n0 y; i' z3 G2 a8 urelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing0 T* H5 B1 ?* Z U$ F# ~
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum." V+ P6 M" U; D. l: h6 Z
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
1 I9 N! a, l8 z0 b5 l. @/ h kfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
" A+ [2 e! d4 y4 n8 l1 aApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
0 B" `7 K7 u$ i5 e4 D4 B; u7 k- Q
2 d5 g0 A6 J! n$ D/ x0 H Montreal
( j3 }7 L- s+ ?; u X8 [& H+ s4 Z6 o( r( W6 ^1 \ O1 e
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
6 b0 M7 A& S; G8 F0 |growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
6 q7 T! A7 {# y0 t! Y( \shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
5 d3 a5 U! r2 e& {1 _6 Z" _: ]2 HCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
) L2 v+ |; r& S$ N: bsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
" b' P; G# e8 \higher as a "hold" recommendation.6 W f7 t+ ^% W! t
, r M$ N8 O7 K The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
4 H% z/ r- r1 O+ K& F% Xinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
+ O# p5 a1 [( S: Lmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos; P; t5 P+ p' N$ _; s# G: P% F) P5 m
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
6 Z% R6 Z! I; d2 l) v4 ]4 F" [/ H+ P' ioverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
6 w3 X& @7 B: N1 o+ Uprices."$ h) I/ m# Y% e! N1 z+ T1 A O
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
: S8 U" [% O4 {: j& J* lwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
6 b: p2 s& \) Q* Z; e, z
" ?8 y- g8 O" Q7 o$ C& O About PricewaterhouseCoopers
9 L* W, k2 o/ H/ u i. [- c, G! \; n& J2 j2 G$ G7 E
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,' _7 ^0 k( |$ @
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its3 n; W. E* o4 R7 q5 |; m' f* G
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries- J+ L( O# |- J, u' F
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop+ \+ n0 U4 s3 y) d' F: v: q
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
! _- g/ C6 O1 j( v/ wexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its+ Y; q9 z$ o* k5 `. B
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the; D0 V. Q. y2 `2 f5 ?
country.# K2 j+ }& Q8 E" D
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
0 v" b$ S6 G0 j% w A$ Z' k3 F+ s( h2 xlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the7 C% }% l& P2 P) }6 n: C: ^
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
7 Z6 T. E/ U4 Feach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.5 W$ t, n' u# o) n- `3 E' A, R1 p9 }
: W \8 u1 ~. c% V3 j4 Q; D
About the Urban Land Institute7 \% p1 ~$ Q1 [( g g
6 x+ W& M! ]4 S( q- | The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
5 ^7 u( E+ e8 E* i1 Q4 Sresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
7 J' b2 z. n, O D# ?' qleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
3 t3 L9 r: N& n. r( D) Y' |thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
* W e+ ]' t. m: _& g& _4 rthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
; v* @, E9 G! m# w5 f/ b) I& adisciplines.
, o' m# W/ a, D1 V7 z; r The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.! p" e9 p1 S7 a
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District/ h' R P; x5 x9 }& _, s
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
; b- d7 l0 v" m* V/ `( ]# m4 Bnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
5 @8 i7 D: ~, ^; _, xhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
) T+ \: Y2 i0 X2 V) L2 q2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake4 k# A, b8 B8 C& Z
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
* {8 S M6 t& N3 _President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please* d. \! A( X. y, n# x* ~% C4 B* i
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on* i# Y( ]6 p0 ^. I* D
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
6 O. z8 g8 h1 k+ {0 ]* `9 h. e, h- T" p$ t
8 H/ z! _# O n, C7 S- K
! W- |( W) l2 R. g8 w# n- c- nFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
/ o. [. @0 ~. m+ {" j(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com4 L# G+ b- u0 W/ _
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html4 @0 H0 H9 ^0 p
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