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Attention Real Estate Reporters: % `* Y) F2 {- p' A: P# e5 y
* ~# z/ t2 g. x8 KDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat - k; G6 r" g5 H- p) ]9 |
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US' j& P- A8 b6 r% d8 L
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern9 J4 p! M! A* O8 J' k4 z7 b
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging7 X8 v# ~0 S, K9 \
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
' P$ j& ^, \, ^( C2 ?and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
& i) U- Y* [1 B) ]4 n: o# g: Bupbeat.& ?6 h4 z( M( X- [1 c9 O' I
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
1 N0 m: F y/ T: s- M5 }6 d; `% Uannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
! ~/ r1 P/ a: o5 w" u: H3 W* binterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
u9 C8 p/ t7 _- w4 W- \" iestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
+ y& b$ x. T& H" W3 j- h4 ^; Srepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
9 ~+ o: r4 Q4 g* {! t8 SOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world9 h& I Y) ]8 N9 \" ], W( G
including Asia Pacific and Europe.! f5 q' \2 z, F( r) J
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
; s8 O( R4 |; U* GReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment: C4 I# h5 M" |% @) Q8 S
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
* U8 V6 x% W: h/ _- Sbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
$ |; V Q2 T- N) a1 {8 s. q0 o: fhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
5 K" L4 T5 M% c8 o% v According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
. V( J# j7 s& |. O- z7 }1 E$ vborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game$ _5 a6 l$ X$ P, H. x, R Z& c
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey. h+ |$ r8 x' p; ~6 U8 ^* I
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US5 \" d: ? v* Q5 ~9 ?% ^: D
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be, b! o6 B4 W: s8 |
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
2 L( K1 E4 i9 j, C) `# J The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
, l# Z, T6 T$ w: V$ o! m# Frespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
U9 [+ `$ F& U; Dcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
! T8 T1 X% A" Y* Fdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
! n) ]+ @+ [6 ?! ^6 t! _' }especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
# Q& f! K/ I+ ~' Fdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The/ W' b7 U" u# P( M
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
- h; g+ f" w! T/ l/ x Atake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
7 }$ {2 K( |1 t6 J! O( ?single-family housing looks overpriced.
& D# F# c8 G3 L7 @2 u; D Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
! z, p6 j, X3 d8 vtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
0 Y: [7 J) Z1 K& n; E6 B6 xmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
7 {. W+ v3 \9 \0 l& khigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting7 O% u6 w5 R1 E) u; y; _
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,& ~( x/ N4 i2 X; N
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
0 C) G. F8 E; m" eapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary9 J+ I4 c" x, e
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
3 H0 U9 }, J" e9 ]% oshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
5 Y4 q" F' s! q) U. L. n0 Athe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development* [; j+ d2 n8 X! B2 w1 H' l
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
$ y& r' m q- f7 g% L7 u, J( W/ P
, n: a) I4 b5 r: g Canadian Markets to Watch( ~7 @" P+ J% {, N7 N# H
/ X. k% p! L2 [9 P" B7 g# D The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central1 r6 K. Z! i" X% f5 X/ s, M* }
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
- i4 d4 Q1 U1 |) Lneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
0 d3 T' t' R% Sinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in& p: V) w) r. ^5 R: M" D% ]" I
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
6 @) M2 H0 M0 Y' w' L8 {; |projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out, V! ?6 |' X0 ~& _) m; k9 e5 m" t
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
2 r3 E5 ?- e. m5 z1 qprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
8 [! n, s8 T6 J) `8 {9 xwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
5 ~( K/ K# w# p9 HToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
6 N8 F+ Y4 Q( N: m: J4 yratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
$ m4 x' Z V) \' R, j9 h
" @5 f3 `) c* z1 a' |4 G+ D Calgary/Edmonton+ U o4 I3 `, X( n! [3 V+ d( g
5 m8 d- C' r! [; A) Z) m Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
; G! ^9 Y7 c, v7 ]3 m# yboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
8 k3 n9 ~' q! q/ y8 i: ^' a, Q, ubuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,3 @ @) ~; _1 m) A$ {
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.* y4 z2 N: j A3 G! H* G
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale# K% Z+ n- {. [ V
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the i( e, j/ l8 S+ O9 q. g
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays5 T2 J) P$ k- k, I" Q
strong, this market will continue to do well.
3 @1 p, a, j8 a7 l5 u8 w2 B' X6 Q- ~2 v( K
Vancouver
2 |$ L, ^8 m. Z2 W: _" {9 |9 _, g4 X1 N- C
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
6 i8 o: c6 x" V4 R0 Cbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
% ?; l: a) T. T7 D5 Jreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the. L# f* U: p9 h# ]8 N0 Y
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a6 n! [+ i7 d: z' g( \' M
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy; C. p, b4 J. c3 ~
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
; q7 w J! s, \0 _for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%4 D3 |7 e8 k8 M& R% ]. t
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
, |9 s8 \: P. w& Y ?% a( c& E" agood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.3 g k; q0 t; y$ Z& Z
5 N) p5 J! l- O+ _: r' I" U3 A
Toronto
; O4 a, u3 \. L$ f5 j+ k$ N& I' Z; \+ ?* T, R7 w( c0 G ?
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and7 f& s$ P% {5 _1 L* }
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
9 j9 O! |( {% x' ?3 M3 h- [relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing z% R$ i1 F' E+ T; h% s
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
Q) E; [# u/ }Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square! ~: ^; J2 v, y6 G
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
: Q5 v2 C: x' b- bApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
. Y7 l3 }7 z T5 Q) O2 P* X F X Z2 x0 h
Montreal
5 M" \6 Q- b: s3 W$ K8 x! ?4 G! \$ F8 ?4 ?, P, c
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall+ ^. l8 A- z1 q( a; c, L
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up6 H, |& M/ n9 x- Z9 D; n, f& X
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
3 b$ E1 H6 k+ } L, f- Y& gCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
( R$ S1 Q, A8 l$ g, ^$ N3 Xsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors5 {1 Q/ w( e% ?) t5 W8 E8 g( f
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
. D* X, x7 x" W/ V6 A3 a
' z8 z! ]7 O; K6 e' ^ N7 N0 _* P The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
. L7 d* L0 z7 ^5 n3 A0 Kinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy( K# Z# c9 R+ |+ M; M
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos1 z6 B, g1 w% @ y
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest) D' ^0 Y) Q! m5 }# R
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
' _ L+ M- F0 } }- Jprices.") {8 A. T/ ?! V% A; y7 ~6 C/ x% r
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
2 l( z3 I( z* c+ W. c) `) R: bwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.! H+ I" E4 b+ E: t1 z- U# c* q
5 @0 ?4 b# \* b$ j) _; \( N
About PricewaterhouseCoopers5 R. }/ e5 b8 ]% C; u" K
/ p' v7 V/ T) N" G; Z! H9 |, Q; e2 c PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,% o( g* i% H6 D5 `6 e9 n
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
! J& _3 v1 R0 H; jclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
- x6 x+ |# y! aacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop: r8 I0 r$ j5 F
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
- q* E/ A2 B* d. X( {4 Dexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its: |5 V1 E' j9 ?$ A8 J# U" z
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
$ D. k+ i+ Y/ h; _' |, Bcountry.5 J0 [. T0 N1 v3 W! i, X
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
% a4 I! A; q, J% Q9 k( rlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the+ g( l/ ^7 \2 }4 u8 x/ C) u8 S8 y0 k4 |
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
/ [# G: u |! c8 g/ M" e8 Leach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.9 G6 I+ M2 f9 v6 x; l6 H
' x+ r+ E* T! M$ E/ ~+ p, I
About the Urban Land Institute: Z7 m% [8 i) H$ `3 v2 I* M
, C4 C; Q* K$ b9 V8 r1 P The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and ]1 r# O4 K5 [5 h3 c
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
9 n& N7 k% W0 V- [leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating- E N5 @7 ]% p! @( t
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more- ?* q/ k- i: [$ Y9 L: B
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development4 m0 n9 R+ H, Y$ I5 e( K
disciplines.0 F7 r3 B9 k* |4 b$ C* C
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
3 L3 D( v* i" K- U/ AWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
+ r, Q( h$ M6 b# qCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
! c: @' {7 F& J% Z# `now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be/ s, D" C/ j5 S2 i- _1 w! F
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,3 z- h/ q( f6 O' M' i
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
7 F( H. H. l6 z6 d8 UHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,6 c2 l* E& J+ ]
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
! H Y6 h3 V5 V' Mcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
! L7 ]3 f9 E wthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.' {) F( k* k. y' }
9 o" X1 ~+ \2 Q1 v# b
' J9 o1 s( p: d( C: L' J y
6 ~; R$ |# I0 ]For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
& T9 w, c( w, s, A1 ?: f* s(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com4 N5 y" ?% _) O8 Q1 C% f3 m7 _4 ?
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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) S! e$ d5 R: E6 ?( U[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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