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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 2 U0 s0 v) B. B& k4 U
; C+ n1 ~6 @9 X5 ^; U. H2 K
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
% ~& T7 F1 o/ A0 e TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US7 J$ X4 A# V! X$ w
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
* r* F5 O* Y" X' b: x* aas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
. A' E" f. t J# w' g$ p6 ~Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
+ D5 O( a m1 }9 ], Q8 e- ?and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more' j4 i- S. x) L4 K( G g
upbeat.
! K, l. W# s! N Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded# b) x* \' [4 M9 y* J# z
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects6 Z1 ~. s9 `7 Q
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
! c. @# i# ^4 L7 Eestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
6 G! ]5 Q3 q" B7 orepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
5 ^, B- o* T* ?' w0 w' F; xOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
: G8 `* e; ~! B2 J9 x9 C( Hincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
( |% a5 S; a1 l& @: I3 Q# I" N1 g According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
9 k5 c! M! {* `5 u/ X% HReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
1 e: S" Z: k1 Uenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to- M2 Z& W, n4 B/ E; B, W
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
6 n/ M' ^- Z$ A) @5 h lhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."1 l. {+ r \) x( G
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
) P( c+ `( W5 O0 F5 \# Iborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
& m O0 m. T8 B. aspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
* X; f& P$ m1 }. v' L( l% Bremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
# v! N# H, u2 T! [+ K( z: n+ Icorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
. ^8 w( x. Q( f; x+ H) Bvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
- |# G! H0 A6 A, f9 P6 ] The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
m3 s$ @9 `, Z0 ^3 mrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by% q. d3 n' R+ e- y% f8 V, c# P
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
: G+ x1 I+ B; U9 Qdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
) t* u q1 J/ g3 h% n/ Wespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating! w) J) S- C8 T% _
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The& x4 q! d/ s4 [5 a' ?
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to p6 O. E. g+ b
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and1 }# C$ R' S8 [* C
single-family housing looks overpriced.
! v# F7 f v. n1 s% u2 n% L Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
* K4 |3 i2 B% }tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian* |3 q9 q+ H: p; g% H
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push& V3 z# C/ S( q) A& O' x6 d
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
) K8 `! m9 [/ @new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,% y! F! o! C* z9 |- \3 L
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental% W8 i* R0 z6 D# o: V6 Q* \) G6 Y
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary+ A2 n7 E+ E' s- L/ r
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
, s4 l8 }, u: B$ _shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into! ]4 a; u6 T7 _/ m, ~6 G" T' D; m
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
6 n X! ]- G% [$ |5 B( |& s! ~2 @in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.4 N/ |# p( L. @: _ z/ f
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Canadian Markets to Watch) d0 q" ^* r$ o* U+ Q0 _6 @$ |7 } k
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central0 j$ S! D: a P# F p
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
* \4 W# o4 y) rneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
) N1 f1 a R% B- T& u- ?2 x% rinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in& ~. P& X9 w: t
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
9 A* G1 x& w! g" fprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out1 u: Z8 X+ e$ x" }
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
) U& L8 |$ L; S/ N# Q9 V* m. q; _: Fprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain! x- }! K2 H2 n2 ~& f0 A1 u
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.5 s% C/ l7 K8 o5 t R
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high. M1 T7 o5 j B; Y* o K# J
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.7 `9 K& `2 v, r/ z/ U( e
U1 M6 l8 E# j* B l Calgary/Edmonton
; @! T# O3 D) A1 a P. X5 T/ y4 r4 G3 x, o4 S
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one9 Y* P% a$ D E, k; U5 p
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a, {& }+ _. A( ~1 {
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,4 }7 }; Z0 J' P4 n! k4 @% J
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.( h0 W) F; U6 m4 z. a8 O" @' ]
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
- z: H) u/ H t( H2 iHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the1 ]( ~ B% w3 ]: O5 v% B2 h0 s
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
3 m# r, n0 C/ r C I+ D+ ^strong, this market will continue to do well.! U" A* h( s9 B- r& S \ ^! t
]- ?# g F/ ]. X
Vancouver0 a$ |" Y: c/ v
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
$ b) U; t* g/ K8 `1 k0 ]booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous% g. ]( D2 ]" W' h! F& Z' }
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
, ]" `2 @ \9 z4 X7 o7 O" G% tmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
6 F& H' u/ g8 t. E$ q( sgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy- n0 X1 `0 D# d. C1 i
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
; @; w; g8 i+ f2 I4 Vfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%1 x4 H3 p& }. F
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
* q8 L' R# e3 x3 O- D7 Wgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.) d; L) y {' i4 s- q
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Toronto! f7 c1 Y% ?/ d/ E: A2 a
, n6 |- `5 J: M* a: t" y$ r" S# Y Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and" D# s2 k7 B8 k( }* j' V: Q4 g
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
, \9 }* z3 g: j6 C4 x/ |$ e6 krelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing; D% D$ J6 G5 Z. O% P
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.# P5 u2 @! i4 [
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
# ^9 F: O6 O: T+ ]! o, \feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
- d' }1 \# N+ v2 `$ ]* t1 SApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
6 g' o4 k3 N# P$ I6 b* m
, T8 p8 J8 I" w Montreal8 X% B3 E/ J, c5 {
$ n! v. @1 b! ]& k' `
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
+ z/ A* A3 V+ [* {growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up& E, f0 T( _& v6 ]7 g
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
* U* m5 U( S2 H* BCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
, O- s( N# U, N; }) v4 msectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors, M9 T" L; V5 Y2 r/ V2 {) O
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
c: J+ z1 u% R, B
* n8 ]# t$ g5 E% C: b The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
1 `* Q! [, o) a9 Q ainclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
# B, u: h- @1 X2 M- S" k0 Bmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
( r( }, X6 B& H) w9 u( p; ?( Fnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest) r3 F& j6 X+ a1 V
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
$ h A x' o: U3 }4 \7 A$ t" tprices."3 R/ z% z% I1 V, `5 ?9 E
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
$ E' @% c T3 E, h! l2 m# w: Xwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.3 Q9 R4 Q0 E( p
' h2 t3 \# _/ w8 h About PricewaterhouseCoopers) {9 d; t& O* y
9 f w5 y( G5 I9 [" |; [3 z$ Q PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
% E1 n7 @) L4 h9 |5 Mtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
$ \$ Y8 s% H; h. |% Q; Wclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries7 \# I9 U8 V6 T v, J( X( m S
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop$ i/ p! s0 G L" m
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
/ R/ H/ w4 s: Wexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
3 y5 }, L, q) [9 frelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
# O5 G/ V. U- E$ Q2 w( G3 fcountry.8 ^# X0 e3 n4 b) ]' d+ H9 W3 R4 D
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
" b+ k' q. T' A! j, Y+ D, H& r* G0 k: @limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
+ n" S n4 h, N5 u; jPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
; m7 [0 X$ Q L% Z0 U; feach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.5 R2 ^4 j& N8 `! i6 Z
' J, z2 S& g5 J9 b; e& }$ u
About the Urban Land Institute
# V a# _" k3 g6 }3 |: _
; v$ [5 w% U0 A# G; Q+ \ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and3 [1 d2 [) |2 x1 v% j7 u* h
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide6 V) ]$ f2 f' K7 ?; S% E$ h
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
; _1 t& n2 ?; W/ B" ?0 m mthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
% C q# l( n! r2 D' u" Ythan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development+ g {! T' Y4 D+ ?
disciplines.
( K- Z* O9 o9 `0 N! U4 M The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
# k' f3 [. ]( p% r/ F" @% MWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District' N2 _( y5 s# @2 k' j r9 [
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is+ u/ `8 J: |. P' S! o
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be G( G3 ?# n, B
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
7 M) S p3 \) K2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake0 a" _7 \& D0 k" V
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,: Q5 K {! `! N2 T4 x
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please# u- J/ T, S4 o7 Z" d
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
% A# n* s; U# M" N* R) }the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
. ]* D: @& U! O) H' r) T' n2 K: S: f5 C6 c$ @# x
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,6 e5 m7 `: ]3 t7 s2 \
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
* h) y/ o B4 x: ihttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html% u1 V8 M: J3 c: H
% p: F- V/ R/ k7 ~[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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