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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ( n* ~" H, k3 Z( M% S. U
3 k$ ~7 F* g6 O( A$ q: z5 ZDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
w3 S: l/ G/ \6 i TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
0 b9 O) g* V5 F+ `& `/ acommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern' E9 F5 G0 u2 H) f* z( l- V, f
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
* ^6 K0 w2 I5 R" bTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)$ f% n4 {, j) F+ m& C. h/ J
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
7 ~$ w$ g: j6 Oupbeat.
9 O. [9 v. ?, O Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
$ D# i0 q4 }6 _( W* U& Vannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
, [; l/ |$ V7 g7 l7 L# H6 l3 `interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real% K3 K8 v% x5 |; I, @0 x
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company) _1 m/ B- h/ n, s
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
- \! @. _- r( r5 }4 o0 ROther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world& A$ C( y, h7 n- V; s
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
- T# ^% p6 d0 j# k/ e According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian* ~: q# C& H# j/ v
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment9 R2 l" w% N/ x7 }
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to2 G2 T0 d- D: n! x9 n
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
. w B7 ]4 e( }2 Y! Vhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
( H7 _( i3 ~- x$ J' J According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
+ U5 L/ F, Z. w1 A7 c$ v( g) kborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
( d n5 @% E' Y6 dspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
. r, k5 V9 F+ w$ \* t5 y7 S3 Q5 b4 Sremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US- @& I$ z2 k2 B+ W( M
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
- [+ J) D5 O+ l3 d% o4 fvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.; b d% O" p* W. f) C9 Q
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian$ f" T5 A1 x0 \4 T4 n6 T
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by; M4 H3 v( M4 O5 S. g2 Q
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land, @9 L9 F9 ]1 D0 m6 H, |
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
! d s: N0 F4 F1 v: I7 l& P/ Y; Uespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating( N5 Q; Y: ?' q# N' d9 E# p# g
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The2 W/ J8 L( S2 N' J! Z1 l
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
, ^" ]$ J$ Y/ R( E' _ \take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
9 Y6 o2 ]1 e' Msingle-family housing looks overpriced., m2 L0 t* \, f
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
, F+ T" E% F) J0 ]" btenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian5 `+ V: v3 F+ U7 u( H/ X$ z/ x
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push5 H& |* v, i9 F, U3 X
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
& I- o# z. T! }9 m0 unew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,8 X {7 o0 q' J+ }" L0 r9 t' I+ L8 q) S
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
1 j& z0 H1 E$ dapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
) h0 |7 A* f8 |# \western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
% V* z* ^. N' E% b% R+ Qshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
4 U! o0 z6 S! G4 l8 lthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
/ C, Y" j$ x+ n0 Z. K$ m1 gin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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7 U1 J# B% c" t( b Canadian Markets to Watch" v3 f/ H4 Q! l0 M% }$ @" W
* Q3 \" v/ {6 N- o The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central4 @4 E9 b2 A6 p4 v& @8 R& m
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour3 n! [- W; k1 J' R2 @8 _8 Y6 B4 P
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
1 U! i1 b; P' ~* Winto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in4 J4 \. l& b$ l5 X( `$ k
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical4 y6 h1 Z9 ^* M. `2 f: r
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out/ j0 \# r4 S- \9 R8 T C* m
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment! K9 K0 x) d5 j5 Q# @
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
% O8 k* T! I* v# X5 o/ uwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
" `2 ^& W3 T/ r( |" ^" g% m9 W# `9 ]. \Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high2 {- Q8 Y$ q/ j m$ ?+ q o3 F
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging. ], `) d6 K( G! l6 w
- X* O) ~7 K* s3 M Calgary/Edmonton
3 x. |4 a. p; E6 w5 B; P
* H j3 Y: W' x* n4 Y% Z: A Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
3 h& u+ L+ ~5 v: h5 ?% O# Hboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
/ y8 [9 s. e1 |buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
, i5 |& j: Z% W! {9 `9 |7 d% S48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
" X. Y' U. E4 s* O3 h# x$ qFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
9 V9 a+ L. a( c6 V0 X2 s$ J1 jHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
9 f1 L$ I' n/ k. c3 i. j: n! hCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
- P+ Z; e: _# e0 Lstrong, this market will continue to do well.
& s- ]7 k6 Y2 C: I: S
$ A) }- W6 r/ h Vancouver$ B+ e+ U& A5 L S% D+ c
' l. r; d0 w, U A: o
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is1 Q+ S9 V. U# k u. {
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous/ Q: ?. i8 V, C, t; b) x3 ]1 ]+ h
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the" q3 ~! f. S4 R% t. F B
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
7 Y( O* {4 b1 R9 ogrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy9 r2 C, [5 G+ M% W+ _0 f( w
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%/ E; \' F, z1 T1 ~' I
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%$ j! N9 R" l) C, z' H; N
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
1 F. ~$ Q* u; Kgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.3 M5 g0 v" F8 X4 T0 l
% y6 K$ C2 D% L. J Toronto
: X' Q6 X3 S, _" V
: J3 y; |) B! z; t# U/ {1 q# b Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and: v. a& Z2 H3 R! k4 ` O
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
; x) {# m% L$ Z$ i- ]' c- A% yrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing: X( J! p6 w# k& E q* y0 T
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
$ O7 ]1 t, U/ {0 F) _Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square# M; D w1 k) h9 T) W
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and" z' R" s! p. ~+ T( | K
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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1 o1 {% j; Y9 O: o$ X W' c7 V Montreal
9 |( x# R l8 m; u$ Y* H. `0 O' T1 [+ ]
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
( g0 @- q4 S1 Z4 g* z. }6 l. egrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
( G0 V4 k) y) |# G! M! d* `shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in9 ]4 H) _+ {( ^4 x/ Z/ L3 S
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate2 l) R$ t5 Q5 j+ W5 }( {4 a: S# R9 g& e
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
- ?5 d K0 R% I: Q1 f# _higher as a "hold" recommendation.
7 y8 s- }" O& m4 i$ o5 b
9 B* M$ _0 E; `) ? The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
1 C) E. D/ ~' Iinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
/ e+ \: _: }* ]: i1 M- Hmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
# I( J2 n* d# ^6 B; Q* G7 Y1 Ynear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
* E f! ]! t$ d" `0 ^: eoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current9 N9 i' W- O: T/ Z O
prices."7 e% z" M' N4 i6 w, L
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
5 c+ g5 a$ B6 T9 dwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
0 {0 m2 u7 W7 \2 x/ y# @. j( J3 u/ _% F( h3 v* h
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,# Z) n* B% Y2 a/ n: M+ T. e
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its8 c! y+ R2 a8 s; A* P
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries7 s' ^' \1 w8 @# H* \
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop/ A& Z7 W4 j4 K1 L. @( Y3 Z
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
5 _0 d) c3 _; u: F% Hexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its$ s7 B! e( K2 @2 }' |4 W
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the9 K! H1 P7 Q2 a* |6 z+ g2 o
country.
" Q4 i7 r5 o3 t0 _0 S4 k "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario7 R; }$ o( A, _1 ]
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
( t! j2 r F, t# W l" b6 k4 P; nPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
, X p0 C* v* S, k$ Teach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.' p1 B9 q, V) F5 K- S! K. b
0 V; X! X# y0 B2 ~4 m- k
About the Urban Land Institute
) c9 o1 b. O9 b* \- D. I
) l) u7 R0 N) j8 q# E4 J# ^ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
1 j5 z. n% V2 f3 x7 u; |8 m, o/ Eresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
; v9 A% W! N8 o7 A6 B% Mleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating8 d" u6 D6 i0 }/ Y0 ?; N
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more0 u9 [, [3 s8 `0 k" U
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
! x. v. [. z2 V7 ydisciplines.( _! i* A. x* I1 V
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
& m" `0 _- ~1 V- QWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
' G+ W% O, X; D) E( B, K* o& v) ^Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is7 X3 F% v' Y* l( b+ [4 z$ M
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
( P! r" y9 r v% h$ I3 Y0 x* rhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
! U8 L8 i/ g" P! ^- @2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
* y R5 K# e6 n' @/ M9 T' gHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
1 C4 t V% {" ]" z1 [# A. E/ @President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
0 w$ _0 r# D, A- s' tcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
4 f! ? G' F1 r7 M( K5 J) s" Ethe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.* C0 ?. j- h0 ^9 W; b, h
5 N( a! C0 N) h. Z
. a( c% m3 N8 \: h4 t1 _
! N0 r; W$ k! H; s$ H: |* ~; NFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP," x+ S7 F! u2 D% Q: J b
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com% R# x# i6 x- ?4 @
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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