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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
: S- n! L- W7 O) U1 `- D, i8 _" C. Z, w( Y# C8 R: V. D
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
* M- D- l) a2 t1 L& [$ U" c TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
+ H/ w% ?; b3 a2 d3 |' j: |commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern3 m( k; ?' F: W% l0 w# @
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging T/ q, q) `4 N ?. t2 \
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
9 M+ Y* t# T: _: |and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
9 ^, Z) s$ p/ q2 `8 a9 t3 @upbeat.2 F( {* c( v; g2 J6 ?4 \; i
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
) v2 N. {. t% Y4 ^* wannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
% x d5 b# X8 a: yinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
( S( \! f) i' F' ?: ~estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
, I# h1 t% t8 e5 c3 V$ ~representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
' G' a% V5 w5 mOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world6 Q) p: J+ M( t! m3 J5 \( L
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
+ H W0 p, F6 R( b1 E2 s) `0 K According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian/ K0 D. X. E; n, H
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
; g% t$ q4 ` O b+ w& N2 }2 Kenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to! y& G5 [* ^3 _! m3 D( Q
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
6 V4 ^! k6 R/ A& Qhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
5 [' E! c7 R3 u According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the5 u. A5 G6 E- C d" F8 t( o
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
5 P! ]+ U1 ] @3 B( o/ dspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
! P8 r/ z8 N6 n$ y2 ?remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
/ o' h w6 z) e( C, G: ` P6 ?# i" Zcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
+ R* Y/ t/ J7 N; q3 U$ ^very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
" u6 E2 ?# M% Q2 m' Y3 v The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
/ W2 r( V* t V9 L' S trespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
9 y* r# b, @1 g% x9 Jcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land2 {( |5 j7 U$ {* k* G% b+ T7 ?8 `
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
% u: a3 \, r3 A# I+ respecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
4 ~4 u2 b3 [( q6 v; B. }2 i6 V) vdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The5 F" I2 P: X' Q! r" v& W# C
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
2 v9 t) \7 V) l! R& [) |% z- D! Gtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and$ N0 |9 f$ n, l6 l: s e* m
single-family housing looks overpriced." ^, k4 w2 K4 x4 ^0 d
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with, ?2 h. Y6 j6 ]+ |) x
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian# t. }8 {7 T) \. Q- b- K
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
) \$ L8 t3 f) chigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
1 w3 V5 G9 N* Q! i4 mnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
& G' i- W' Z5 p; U0 uand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental, W8 O* Z6 c6 D) e3 C# y9 ~
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary5 H A) G5 Y, ]5 j, M6 Z* k
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
6 b: h" Z" s' A% P8 Kshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into K# K6 l1 X1 p/ n
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development$ [, y, n. \) s# X& }2 s
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity., T# w" G9 }3 T4 d; k3 Q( M
. _8 G3 c& \- ^* i8 \( S. ] Canadian Markets to Watch* ]: l. k8 ?! e3 y$ e$ M
! e4 E# m1 F5 _ D7 n6 O1 `
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
7 Z- o" }+ r( Pcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour( n; M2 M3 F" S
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
, u8 S; l# D9 }# R, a8 Z: Winto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
* H) O$ `" \0 {$ xdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
/ q/ J! y# d. aprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out9 e5 f7 H: M8 P( W% B' ^
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment7 m& |# ? d: b6 y) |. K
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
4 X) D$ ]" P) j" Bwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
% k- t W: E, \' Y: I" B5 HToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high7 S3 L$ i$ z: s- V
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
$ V+ b( K9 A& v) h# p1 Z2 ?4 p' l8 L( @) J
Calgary/Edmonton
5 _4 S, S2 K( K0 Z/ R* k' t9 y) b# a
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
! d! {6 }" c h3 c9 |0 h) vboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
: n# f7 [- w/ O' `buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
) E4 z# ?' `7 |48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.+ m$ L3 r' X$ p9 v% S1 o
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale0 S3 h/ e$ B+ q6 x' J6 k
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
1 ?; ~7 `& d6 Q: _ mCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
M& t( j: ~; Gstrong, this market will continue to do well.
% R# T" d7 `1 r# _% t% c ?' j! u% C1 w) U2 D3 _! e# c1 h
Vancouver
8 f: f4 r0 M# Y1 t9 ?
+ e; O* U& E& Q Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
$ N+ j4 F9 m9 ]* e3 ]1 t' hbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous, D2 }& M5 x# S1 r
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the, w2 Y5 U6 B4 R# y
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a* D3 m4 Y+ c( O4 a2 }$ Q: F
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy7 Q5 K. L2 k$ Z; Y( E9 h+ S
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%. Q7 z) i) y: }* q$ [
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
: x5 L* @ R6 A% f7 pfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very( e* B. h' p4 X8 P( y- j( o9 }
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
1 B% O6 D* x) v$ g9 P" f% @9 Q
; f2 w# E! T2 D- s1 j Toronto% A) ]! K+ T$ \# i. e8 f
" d! A6 o& o" y/ h1 H$ b& m% W Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and2 {- w, B" o0 f0 u4 Q i
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
" h! i# i d, y3 Qrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
' k% S' p ` s; B- Aindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
% K+ t" v) o" S# c. bThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
n/ e4 l' `. I0 R' ?: X8 H. nfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and O9 Y4 r' P& z& V% {1 R
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.: {' V/ c( [, L
5 B% t6 X, |4 [5 x: C8 n1 z, Z% ?! t5 a* Y
Montreal( y- {: R% ~* |2 N8 Q6 k
9 |; W1 R% @2 S- X: O+ E) j Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall" z. K* r6 x H
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
7 b/ D4 a, j' ishop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
" s& z }) b- CCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
s, g ?: B& y2 tsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
% T6 `2 H8 a( C3 I; U% V: Nhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
0 v2 P& z L7 E2 }- x& c+ j% b
3 E) S( f+ v- v$ x The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years% \0 m( x2 e' |! {: T
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
9 D7 p3 E. U h9 R% D: L& Smarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos- E: s l# ^- u# ]1 C
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
2 r# W% B3 G0 B6 v/ [* ]: toverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current: \* H7 o0 J/ p% p
prices."
7 N& m3 L2 t! L5 a5 `( ? A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at2 n8 [* A1 k7 M( [' }+ @3 r
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
?2 ?, l9 A3 ?4 K8 o( c4 {8 \1 \' J2 o8 N/ A ^3 S) U
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
% d T. {6 X( P* J4 v6 w) P8 y; t( k+ l7 I; e4 M
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,0 t* Z8 l3 A* C4 ~2 J% ]& N
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its& F! E5 ~% {* G# Z1 [- }' K
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries8 y; \& V: O/ _ v% D, f
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
# G3 j4 e* U* E1 [6 s+ c- Bfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of( u' G+ E5 M: W& C. M1 ?4 f
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
2 |9 s+ P$ e8 o. xrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the6 d/ `# Z+ _: r# A2 r7 \
country.
2 i4 Y% O; p( P7 w9 e- F "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
" w3 b6 v6 Z& \( Elimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
3 ?9 |' h0 M2 a; `PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
, d& h9 p1 S3 ?% `5 Oeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.4 C b& \# `5 N( X% y5 L
) V. L1 F. S" S2 ^8 @
About the Urban Land Institute; b0 k- x* z) t# s( x4 I
" g( a6 N J2 |1 A The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and, g2 P \5 O; ~- S f7 L! T2 H
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide, \8 W! B7 P- m# w1 T7 G
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating! t; h6 {# g, P
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
$ r" ]$ `6 u- Y. m' \% ]than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
S" u7 Y( h' W) Odisciplines.
* ^. R4 O9 I e `9 {1 o The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada. a9 _! |' s1 w1 {" y# V6 {, @
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District* [# A7 D5 [' m) I5 |2 h
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is/ S1 I- z) a1 ?# C
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be/ H- M W2 l5 t0 i$ I5 g. C% t! r
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,% {0 A1 m9 \: h* h8 f6 C) G
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
& T, F) g, |; j, A2 y) SHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,0 M) g/ `& i$ ~ e0 B
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please% W1 n4 f! [+ |. |- S
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
! ~' P! x( e2 A( \the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
3 v2 s( f5 v3 R
Y% P+ G7 z: t( h; b8 S0 Y6 e, [9 ]; G& o, ]
! }1 c/ `! x7 A+ J$ u ]
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
# i M" i& Z* E; l3 s# r+ V& u(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
7 ~/ O& S3 }- qhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html, ^2 A6 G |3 I9 `% G9 C4 I
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