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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ' y9 w! V# ~, G0 C& {0 s$ E4 w9 r# I
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat . e h1 q9 L2 ?# Y% U$ b
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
% y+ q1 u/ p4 R, Fcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
% c: H" B( c4 z$ Pas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
+ c/ Q. B0 B3 T# V( t. qTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
+ r0 R H: F" v9 nand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more1 f* ~9 ~" c# b' Y' \
upbeat.
Y* U/ K3 l2 i Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded' {( ]; T- G8 W" M! b6 y; Z
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
. a. |, L6 W$ P+ d0 finterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
" `: B- F! F* b! g) d$ vestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
% v% C9 `! e$ ^2 E mrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.$ ]6 @$ A0 p, D; x2 E& N
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world; e0 I+ }6 C& _5 F7 V8 X# A1 n
including Asia Pacific and Europe.) p2 P1 M- z, H
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
8 o* L3 o7 P0 lReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
# ~4 p6 J7 w _$ r, V$ xenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
+ C( P3 n0 J& E9 }1 gbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
' m2 S- Y5 |" k& U, o: jhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."7 A- M- K) N- R- A$ C" e- o
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
7 n, b; C" `1 R; A; kborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game4 @" o; C2 y, U x6 k) t
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
Z, Z& Z: {7 h. }% o1 x% Tremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
# L2 G6 V* S: h2 x6 j `+ rcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
/ y! i: N2 n" |very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
. [9 p1 \8 k% K1 T The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian* P- ~. \) M0 o/ o7 Q7 V: \
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
S7 i4 ^! E4 S3 x: Ocommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land. ]. y5 A. A! j& a* C+ P/ D, A" H
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country8 O+ s" E ?3 B6 ~ a7 w% b7 C
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
9 N3 r n$ {- H8 G* udevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
2 l7 A2 h& L- a; Bresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to! W% R% ^0 d$ ?/ Q
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
& |% ?7 n6 c; ~- ~, |5 h# rsingle-family housing looks overpriced.7 T8 @1 g, a- a" o
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
$ F% G& u& N2 @: m0 f9 stenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian6 e1 r2 s1 F5 ]: o, q+ E; X& Q/ B
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push8 G6 R& U9 F7 z
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
& e5 r# `) G4 h; l% w0 onew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
' `) S& m) V5 `( Wand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
3 Y2 ~# ` d& _. k# Hapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary5 g0 S1 R6 `, E( T$ B# P" }
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing7 B8 [ _2 O9 E ^7 p: A
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
k, E3 }: }6 m) l) `7 kthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development% \ g7 s$ S3 {7 O
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.: I3 r# N- j) U4 d$ x1 O1 [0 {! \9 K- P
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Canadian Markets to Watch8 x$ T* ~; ]5 N. N
0 v. r4 F9 b- y The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
3 s1 U( G; j% m/ ]4 }! \( mcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour6 v2 j+ W, G1 R& U0 W7 r4 l
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back3 S) O7 b# [" z2 l# `( F* _- Z; O/ @
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in$ M) R. y4 y, b# M! J
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
0 g& o% K( \. w/ _( Pprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
- Q- l* H) p L7 Z0 `! Wwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment/ V, `9 ?0 f1 \( e
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
9 l8 w* j/ ^" R; N& ywhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this. o) v; `+ d3 S- z9 ~. ]3 `
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high9 ~8 X+ Q+ M* I' G
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.: E1 k2 f# S/ K: e4 k9 Z# \
+ Y {) ^! }' O2 O. o/ A9 k& u+ \ Calgary/Edmonton
# \. |( [+ m- U3 r
. y9 J. A8 Q2 v1 ~( b6 N4 V Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
6 p3 _6 M0 N6 nboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a* W+ _5 H9 M- g( [
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,) w. Z% J1 f, W* g
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.5 w: |/ X# |; i' S+ o: j8 t
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
2 u% T M/ a8 \. ], k+ `Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the$ [ Y) O1 |* K- t. \ x
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
7 u- v- i9 p* T2 [- M( Q' f% _strong, this market will continue to do well.
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. [2 w. Y3 Y' w& } Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is1 {# ]& S! [& Q
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous' ? [5 I* Q$ W: W7 P
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the: I$ H" W2 v- J" l6 Y" Z
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a% b9 I* ?: @: y' [8 Q
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
; e/ }; H9 R$ u+ precommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%3 w" G& l2 D) J. I( D" J9 a. U
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
% j3 W, m5 S- i; m4 hfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
2 T" H" w7 g2 u4 [good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.: p# N* z3 b$ j1 Y# k6 R
2 @+ w. C* W$ l$ T Toronto& w. A$ ^$ v, ^; g! O
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
9 s5 ~; {( p. `1 V& Q9 Hmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
7 `; l7 s7 k. y& Hrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing: G" n I7 x0 O0 t( \
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
2 S% _/ f8 S7 z1 EThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square" I6 Z1 t. M& n) N
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
; R' z" A# u: W5 zApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.7 O. J/ T" {; a& v
# g& k: ^3 }/ x' S9 i, S8 X& \ Montreal
4 y# c! B5 F: S5 a5 c, j- j3 M4 T) G( v2 a$ Y
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall. k. S" M8 ~1 G' T# y: [
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
) n1 ?$ l; t/ f. w+ u9 ]! eshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
1 G, _7 }$ }3 m" D! yCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
& d% M6 W* }9 F- l/ H# Csectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
, X* R# S% ?3 ^" E4 Ehigher as a "hold" recommendation.
3 K: a4 }! z1 [$ D8 U+ Q
% H( x- H0 G X% r The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
! G' d! {8 }. ~8 }/ q7 i: ]include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy. N% v8 _0 w: ^ t! \2 B
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
' k1 ~2 Y9 B3 E' r" j/ {near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest& S2 N2 v' n4 i% U. v2 x& u- W
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current. V! z" j" {+ h: `5 T* f
prices."
8 H# B8 a2 l7 _) R3 U( D( J A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
% @1 v& |9 T6 F& g I |. \& }) Twww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.) @7 J2 L8 f: P7 \" C
/ d6 P0 b1 y' q; N4 s
About PricewaterhouseCoopers" Z0 d0 D3 _) p( ?) E2 n
1 `$ `4 I9 U! f
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,( ?0 m# I& O% N
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its3 i+ c5 {' @+ l9 E, |
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
5 p5 h1 E& m6 l4 o5 {5 Bacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
+ p" s, n( G& Q; Ffresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
6 J. O' P; U, V5 S. b$ Jexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its5 c+ R# y) x# B5 }$ \
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
/ l" S q7 I) J5 K# z% Zcountry.' g2 n3 f) p) U6 o. z- s3 M, F% m
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario1 m1 ~( V9 {3 j
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
( b% w* o0 b, Q1 m3 ?: ?" }PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,* f5 `4 V- s& o
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.0 X2 @9 [+ l2 ]2 d6 i1 x6 U
1 j% Y$ `5 R+ U
About the Urban Land Institute$ c' Q3 c% D; I( S$ y
. N* W; G. Y4 w' R% P- ~" @
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and$ p) c6 _+ ?3 C
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
3 }/ K& K( T( F+ }leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating7 T/ O/ s$ f* v8 L
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
" T: F/ l/ q! B3 Ithan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
$ b" P; [+ O4 T, S3 Z1 `disciplines." X' v$ r7 A1 c$ L1 X$ Y
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.0 w2 N% }: [8 w: j7 }" A
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District8 n5 V6 {5 I4 U4 \8 b1 e3 H: }; e
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
# V" N2 j3 d( ~: gnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
, { d# y; ~* @, }) i( Zhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,- |" b* ^7 D" W
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
' A& ~, M* A% v' v! sHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
% M' C' H. l' U. k2 bPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
0 M5 t. b3 P4 i+ E% N7 i/ Gcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
# X9 Y$ I# c3 v+ X+ j4 e. sthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.. o0 [: w) N3 B
3 ~8 x+ K4 g# {# r0 Z/ v( x
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,9 T) Z& o$ V' N) x2 L$ ^8 ?
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com: u& S$ o6 |3 k9 Q# }
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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