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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 2 {$ X1 [3 V% g# \
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
* ]) ]. T* o% b+ w; h TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
) X$ F" @% l) X. ]# pcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern3 h2 V/ c% X2 ~6 E' |* f7 p
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
( @; {. d. X$ C0 N+ Q7 o& lTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
: w- ^1 r( L( E1 Hand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more7 F6 v; n: r7 i9 M7 }. }: h
upbeat.
9 @& Q( D4 g+ a* j5 G: { Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded# z- f5 I( M' c' s8 |* `
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
9 o! S6 D3 W6 Hinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real0 O/ }- \' C, i
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company# V' G( A7 i; O8 B* [" `. m
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.7 x& H1 p" }& a+ |$ e
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
1 W# Q; x) t9 S) `4 M+ ^2 Z; wincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.5 ?- Y, z5 F) }9 }1 E# k7 ` D
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian5 {# U% V; t) k- _& m; d2 j
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment# {6 v9 P" z. U0 z7 E, H+ X, a, \9 E! Y; S
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to3 e7 n, m) \4 U4 f g1 T
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record/ t* x6 A5 G0 A
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
7 Y N; j. u$ T, U: J1 q, t According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
7 P/ X' X, C# P5 a% r$ M @9 ^# eborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game! [- k A9 ^1 f- T" ^6 R
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey: Z$ {9 K. v y& [1 G4 P- ~& I8 B
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US! {$ [+ b6 x$ K% q! [$ A/ o8 N' I
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
: d6 N: s. s6 w9 [6 ~very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.$ W7 i) e2 ^' g1 T8 I: v7 _
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian( R! Z) Z- w: z+ |$ J
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
6 U9 B7 d. T g: U: y8 Kcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
5 @' Z9 y+ y9 @, A& t& T* s$ {development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country* R: d2 U1 v. O' J1 j s1 W6 A2 A$ d! A
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
# f1 a& d* H: q7 _) Odevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The; n4 }0 d) }' V' E3 `
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to) D/ N$ p" J" `2 ~" g! R6 ^8 p
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and8 z/ X& O- O6 F( i
single-family housing looks overpriced.
! o) l2 o2 Y. _' V! B Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with' n, R2 W6 h2 F# m
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
+ o4 _5 b0 ]9 Mmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push$ A. l! d( Q8 X& A) K# ~
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
1 y$ k3 X7 R7 nnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
" |! ?! N1 X' \8 x0 \and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
1 p% ]3 M4 r$ M A1 h. g- h6 b# g! Iapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary# e8 W" {1 j$ S
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing! B% H4 P0 j9 W) Q1 a
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into" N. B7 y# P. W& B
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
$ }* c9 Q7 C; O' q) }% ?' Y9 Jin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
3 l% G# c) M3 P) {& e% \
- l+ Y" v: T0 V7 L' K4 z; o Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central1 I. ^. J- M: X" D- c. K
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
5 n+ }/ @5 u; X; a& y3 tneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back/ t! r7 l1 K: t+ _5 Q
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
+ i# X5 G2 d( B& C8 Q1 t* k" ?downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
1 A- y, I: R5 @. u7 pprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
8 h1 W8 f7 G- k) y8 t8 Q6 Iwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
: C) ]6 x7 f; ]$ f+ i: O6 A3 lprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain" ~+ S- d: V6 S
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.4 C( A q# p# {% a D# X6 M, L" P
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
- d9 P$ `: A9 G7 ^# r5 p6 iratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
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* N! A% G3 n' ^( f9 k- P+ i1 e2 E Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one* o% v9 c# V& I5 V
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a0 c O# Z' J. |4 S; m, O
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
4 X* R5 B5 o$ g0 q48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
4 N: _/ B. r, q) |Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale4 @% P/ P, W4 E9 [( q
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
2 R+ N% j) k0 U4 i5 v4 Y9 d$ mCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
6 B# F( s$ Y! X0 Ystrong, this market will continue to do well.
I7 l( l% ?7 x% I. s9 I I6 e4 m& F5 H. I. \
Vancouver4 q: J% x9 S7 D6 a
5 p# Y1 x' M6 r3 I Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
' H8 {: l/ q4 R5 Hbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous. A* [2 L) b0 ^7 X; Q) c' g
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
0 N* h7 i$ I% ^' S) U Vmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
) M& Z4 ]; Z+ K& J. jgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
( ~1 b1 t, j/ b# R& \recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%7 L- \; }; w3 Q+ a1 X; e% `- ~
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
6 B0 T' X* a" ^2 |for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very2 o0 O/ h6 b W5 b, S
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.5 \9 A4 F# R) t: P- D! U1 t" ^$ P. j
9 ?+ }9 h- g" C% v* ?# v Toronto ~# ]1 ^/ \+ X; a6 o
- x* u, _6 d3 B# n0 y Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and4 Y0 ^0 F$ f$ k& M8 L) N( ~4 o% N5 H
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
: e0 d* P4 F Z0 u$ Rrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
" s& |7 h4 f: R$ A& [. W" e1 Sindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
7 V9 a: J% d0 L8 X1 w1 }- i* PThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square9 }4 A4 j5 {3 {9 G% v; |4 k' i; M
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
; z. N* }' O1 ^Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
# {: m9 q6 C/ [ ?, J* h, y3 J: Z6 \9 E8 _& ^0 O
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
. |4 {5 J' e3 G9 h' d7 O9 X' ?growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
, i2 A9 V$ T, e2 w- |$ ?( Sshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
7 j- Y# L. f9 t# I1 v! KCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate0 o1 k4 @$ T" Y$ { W1 s7 |3 N$ J) l
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors" w `; R1 u ^: k1 A% {+ y0 ^5 k
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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9 {) i4 q, P+ J6 `$ `7 V The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years2 O& g, r3 M6 Q1 I9 y
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy* b6 @$ ]) ]& D5 c/ p1 W
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
9 A* ]0 I8 Q+ M# U3 e+ l a3 Mnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest' e; A5 }" ^7 a3 k+ j J- e+ t4 c# q
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
0 c) V- _" k8 v+ M+ `3 g* P% iprices."7 L, q- S0 e$ U! o. f
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at" X- P5 k8 O4 m2 S+ C/ n$ k: T- ]
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.! k7 M7 x8 l; q& X& N9 D! _3 `; V
6 I: e$ S- w' c# R; Z) W- L- _
About PricewaterhouseCoopers6 F( n. ^! \/ a% k
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
1 P. }% c4 }; C, Btax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its7 D7 i5 e$ b3 v
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
4 |9 D" w$ o! _; O3 _8 H; a- Aacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
1 k2 s% X* H/ p2 J+ L) f( J' zfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
( l7 ~- M/ k9 I7 }/ B1 pexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its; G& t3 c6 p, _
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the+ H: g+ T G6 r" H6 J$ @( }8 ?: G
country.& C& _1 a) A# p* P" X$ Y
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario4 t& H0 a1 u4 s$ o" L
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
4 D4 o. K5 V) dPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,8 J# E9 V/ j+ L& d6 w+ g! X
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.0 d. }& [- N/ R' W- ]+ u
2 {. o. B: E5 n0 l! ]2 L# o( y2 g About the Urban Land Institute& x& E# i" w1 s" |/ V
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
. s, N! z1 t: Uresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
" ]7 A5 x" {: u; nleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
& s4 _. h1 G) @- Bthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more* d7 o. A5 d* O. m! T; W
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
; v0 P0 a8 e* I+ @9 C7 G" `disciplines.
; l' Y9 U7 A) o9 i& R The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
/ h. H: o1 r4 G+ P, D) qWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District2 b: U( {/ U' K7 ^- N! h! H9 {* O
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
( Y1 e5 v; D1 F2 jnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be W9 ]% B0 s) A
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
1 v$ J7 `8 T( e3 @& r, _1 e1 L2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake7 U" C& m/ h- m/ S3 A! @( U' n
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
6 D9 ` i. w) @: d" OPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please" |* K4 L" ]% M4 W) l/ C( L
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
) k2 h0 z: n* s# W" e G. }the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
& i" T$ t$ W3 s: Q) X, L( V7 c6 Q9 R' u- [5 n0 N
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r6 v6 _! w- g7 h$ J" @For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
7 X1 b" {4 c& B l" J) N7 o- f0 a(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com, `) A: O$ `7 F/ @" o/ f+ J
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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4 A/ T: G/ B# J+ d[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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