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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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" u9 H' h- D; }! b" P7 GDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 5 h. j- I9 p7 z% _) l- l
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
; G3 W3 @% O, Q3 i; `commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
" r9 J* J; X0 S6 a6 ?2 Z# bas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
" R8 q0 ~7 p1 ETrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
% u' c9 e0 c1 qand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
; `/ ^0 c2 ~3 m2 p' K$ h$ A: r; ?" `upbeat.+ h5 i# P$ g6 W6 e$ m0 ?
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded$ m1 W3 z* a) X H/ L. ^) F
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects6 E& Q, ? s8 l i, m* @( F& ~
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real' j: H* Z' s4 y0 S8 C$ i; j
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company) e5 h2 Y8 O& q6 _6 k
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
4 d! s( _6 M" J5 U2 d. GOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world+ c4 h0 S& c: X, t; o& d( L
including Asia Pacific and Europe.) z1 I( _# G" d$ x) w1 w0 a! u
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian, ]# E$ `% @6 B* |* q+ x% s
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment) B u; j; X0 J; P J# S/ A* c
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to- @, ~; h0 G1 x L; o$ X) M
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
, S- r+ h4 w( Y6 q) M+ h" y* zhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."0 f% k, e) @( r$ }$ Q4 {
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the# m$ ^, J k" _5 f3 z' @
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
) q# G+ l, S% |. Jspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey) r" F$ h! `: f* k
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US: e `6 ^, b* d0 Z4 T
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be) t# ]2 R- t/ {/ H. I- [
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
6 X2 U) F! ^- `( O The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian7 a+ [& v+ a. v# ]* ?
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by! ]& X. J7 c6 v) L# q
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land' Y# v, ^1 Z0 ^7 c) W
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country, l- C. ^# B8 E: t8 Y) [% X' u) E
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating2 a5 s5 ]# w7 g4 w3 D0 q7 J: }
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
' |/ q/ `; H0 ]/ }; N* ~residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to3 c- s/ {7 I+ |# a& ]3 @8 l& r" _
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
! }% M$ h, h" O7 s) ?( N [single-family housing looks overpriced.' E1 r% m, M! o' X v0 F
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with2 X5 b6 g% m4 @
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian; `4 ~/ l3 \6 x( E% g
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
& X6 }7 m' D: zhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
' \9 K) {" D8 P9 Tnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
8 \/ ]7 }. h, V: O! p# C! M Fand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental* H4 ^) g9 ]: ]9 K8 F
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary$ R; h( X: c4 f
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing- [+ q+ X! M! V9 V; l
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into2 r, o4 C8 ]: X( ~4 x
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development- {* {' z8 ~6 V' x6 e
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity." j$ F i! Y. \' Y1 Y/ w$ h8 N
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Canadian Markets to Watch& n5 \/ Z; T0 z* f0 M* [& m6 K K
- B7 o; D; w3 F! d8 e# B3 C
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central1 r* y! G0 d6 g8 _ M+ `
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour# U; B* V! ^& m' {3 A. K9 |3 h
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
6 _* D, e/ ^8 }into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
& m3 ]1 `& d; T' T! Y) t/ j2 Xdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical' Y9 K) ]- {' }% N* S
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out) _8 j9 H0 T E7 L
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
% D9 M- X2 T$ h+ zprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain' t) U. Z6 N5 Q( S2 |
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
; |8 U3 t8 {+ `% t5 K7 W- S7 OToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
/ m `8 _& z1 _8 q3 G7 ^- @* [ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton: M- J5 _% O2 p# E
7 b/ N$ L) B2 A+ \2 H
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
3 q. p3 R( ~8 vboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a7 W/ [9 v0 S; u' N
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
5 k2 F* |9 a, T ?48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
; x/ H9 |/ Q" z# g; T5 E) y) {Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale# k; R7 N7 e$ e* c& _+ U* Z
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the7 |% t- g. B! r5 n1 F* A+ D
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
# a: Z. W1 U* [ g- s( w8 Fstrong, this market will continue to do well.
+ m! |2 X$ ?- X6 k/ A; H. @& t8 U: E9 m; Z$ V
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is; f: L: M; [, C/ a9 ^- t
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous2 V: q& _/ J) t8 m: ~8 V
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the4 _. R# M7 o" X! j( _8 w
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
/ k/ I b, @( n+ y' V7 V: Sgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
, l4 f! v; K$ c1 H- q+ S$ Irecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%2 B' y f$ ~3 n. n1 h3 H# P5 V
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%* A8 y# [, X6 C9 ^2 _6 x6 `
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
" s9 g4 Y. D; ]" I/ z/ c% }& kgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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/ V# g2 V @2 ^# k Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
; \9 C E8 m6 E* zmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
, P4 l b) i" X8 ~! Grelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
. [/ L q/ y G! hindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
) ~1 u+ F9 D6 hThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square+ z# E( S* n! D; f, h
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
3 k( a! r% A4 F& l. LApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys., D$ }! [4 J# j" W# C8 G5 p0 L
s- s. `! A0 G/ K6 w7 ~% } Montreal
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8 t" I0 S2 k7 p% l! U9 R( P/ f" o Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall0 P- I! X) J% w3 E' K
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up: U* y! J" V3 {: ?. t" O `6 z, }
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
; V% o% X f4 gCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
" b- R: Q* p% zsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors5 l- c. M5 a: n( z: t$ x# r
higher as a "hold" recommendation.+ `$ ^5 J9 W1 O: x
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years1 r5 w T2 [8 g2 Z4 Y; b4 d t
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy6 y' S! v' c# L
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos9 S6 B* z! Q" ~' y* C5 z
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest+ R8 ~- Z6 k9 D* ^$ f3 H# T
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
0 i' j: `, W* Fprices." x' D$ u& R" k% P R
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at) V7 w; f# g* {0 s& i6 M4 c
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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$ K% w. h. c- M9 A2 R About PricewaterhouseCoopers k3 U4 X+ a1 G/ _& J- T$ m% D
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
2 c0 V# v$ U7 \( t/ R; b" a7 otax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its- ?( W2 {. h! C# R2 K# f
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
* j: Q3 o! F! {6 C6 `% ~& tacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop6 W# U2 r, k# L$ q" J& q6 k! y
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of0 H: G0 {+ s/ p0 L- F" U
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its. I, p: N: s! x4 S( M3 @
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
1 k, I6 t% z" ?7 z* Fcountry.2 S1 x9 ?" i5 P/ H1 c% u
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario6 K4 B! L9 X/ u `+ {3 I
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the) p0 G. ^2 N& T4 b/ J. v: c( G
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,: p, K" @8 p) j+ n$ d0 S
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.2 D6 Q+ r5 h8 t6 B
, s2 ^9 u. G8 ^1 M About the Urban Land Institute; o+ Z N# F, v2 z3 l" v
1 E: b: M' V" B, ?* E/ H/ P
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and8 Q7 c' P6 B2 ?1 v, u
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide9 o5 \; ?& u" M
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating3 ]* W4 @ b- v7 C
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
2 e0 f: m) U, v0 w; ythan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
, S) T+ B- o5 U1 hdisciplines.
I. O/ o2 N- A% x: i F% v The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
$ @6 b- A6 t9 _1 l* l$ `4 kWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District5 R- T) {$ k" x& q6 N) i! d
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is& o d& N' a) f7 i7 v& j5 m
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
* t4 m7 R. H! l: G' \" R% Ahosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
a" s: A" }8 v* J# r. ^ U2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
2 R. W' z4 h1 _$ d- j7 g1 E* HHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
* j! u. t) X3 k& j6 EPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
+ Y* l! h, P& ?1 z& z7 ]1 Dcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
; O! Y; b/ q0 f: e4 Y5 I3 qthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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6 r1 n# ], k! h! \
9 Q" _5 N: v) q! dFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
! Z% @! d7 @ k1 q/ V6 y k! D! H(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
% m3 m7 T& S5 ?' I- ?http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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