No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
$ T0 Y! N, }6 E* P6 }
7 i& t3 S( G2 g. F+ s, NIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
) N5 o) ^, p3 q: l* ~: z9 ]
"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
5 I6 X  `3 T  f$ m5 \- Q
" Q  W. B6 N5 T1 ?0 Z9 B! sAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
, J) N1 u* _$ T* x* N/ U. Y
" D; y. M% D% b& P"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
! h* a: w: l4 y+ M- E! V; O/ h
"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
, @/ N! I" r& h, Q
/ H8 T; h( p2 R7 S+ U4 T3 lSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
; b* v* g" o6 X- f. l- D
"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."

# H; b# M' {3 f8 d4 F- n1 k当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。

[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]