No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
7 S- Y' v9 p) o& n7 ~, Z, S
In a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
; w  ]5 S2 _: }+ p; ]
/ l# Y+ t$ G7 S$ [1 R+ ]"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
, ?* W: q3 A7 ~+ g# c
; {$ b0 c' S- U! ^! o9 U) K( A$ ^As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
' k4 v" @3 M/ i8 T
1 `8 K' F* M" Y6 y& G4 o4 x"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
3 u5 L2 Y5 @9 T
: t) K9 e' @1 }- K"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."

7 ?% f6 n5 G, K3 }" _! QSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.
; f4 \/ W1 q" ]+ ?# k; Z
+ Z& t  r. \- a- N5 yTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
3 Q4 |7 K# L' Q7 [# U
8 N1 G: |" Y+ E6 I. T+ l6 ?"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
" b9 n  [/ G/ U" j
当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
7 v1 p6 y5 H2 }) e5 M+ R看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。

[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]