Don't Buy USO (Buy USL Instead)

老杨

以下内容为转帖：

9 t. {7 y! m! ^4 jI have nothing against people wanting to buy oil at $40/barrel. That's a cheap price, and there's reason to believe that spot crude may rise over the next six-to-twelve months. OPEC appears to be sticking by its production cuts, overall supply is down and it feels like the global economy may be leveling off. Oil could easily go to $50/barrel, which would be a 25% jump from here. Where else in today's market are you going to get that kind of return?
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7 d5 u7 |% c( E  u1 k. L4 ]Related Quotes
Symbol Price Change
2 V( J6 v) ?9 R+ ^# _: w) Y7 MUSL 27.81 -0.69
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USO 25.69 -0.44
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But if you want to profit from that rise, USO isn't the way to do it.
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This is a big deal. According to the Wall Street Journal, investors poured $3.46 billion in new money into the U.S. Oil Fund (NYSE Arca:USO) in December and January. That makes my hair stand on end, because those investors have gotten crushed. And if things stay the way they are today, they're going to continue to get crushed.

The reason, as I've written about time and time again, is contango. The oil market is in violent contango right now. All else being equal, any strategy that focuses on buying the front-month futures contract and rolling it forward is going to lose money. A lot of money.
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This is simple mathematics, and it pains me that people are missing the story.
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. f. [% p0 k4 o9 M( O" KHere are the current prices for oil contracts with expirations in the next six months. Notice how every contract is more expensive than the one that preceded it. USO follows a simple strategy of buying the current contract and then rolling into the next contract before the current one expires.
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& i# e1 z; m5 Y4 y- p7 bMarch 2009
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! f$ \( V- }% n $40.42
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April 2009
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- r; k% ~) y" K  I2 B8 ^) d $46.22


May 2009
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2 T6 ]. L' E4 Z $48.88


1 G8 |7 Z. K8 _3 X4 w5 l' Q( SJune 2009
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# c6 i5 [1 b" a2 ? $50.45

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July 2009

7 B0 K3 {5 `7 z. y $51.28


August 2009

& f1 d' b" Y  q8 X $52.70
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Source:NYMEX. Data as of 2/9/08.
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Until last Friday, USO owned the March 2009 contract. Specifically, it owned 84,378 March contracts, entitling it to 84.4 million barrels of oil.

But on Friday, it sold all those contracts and bought the April contract instead. But because the April contract cost $6/barrel more than the March contract, it couldn't afford as many contracts. In fact, if you exclude new inflows into the fund, it could only buy 73,444 April contracts.

Whammo presto, the holders of USO lost 13.4% of their exposure to crude oil. They now control less oil. If the spot price stays near $40/barrel, the value of those April contracts will decay back to $40/barrel over the next month and investors will lose their shirts. If the price of oil jumps 15% in the next month—before USO rolls again into the May contract—investors will only break even.
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This contango effect killed oil investors in January, according to Standard and Poor's, which runs the most important commodity index in the world.
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"The steep contango in the WTI crude oil futures market (when further-out futures trade at a premium) was the primary factor causing the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index to decline 18.90% in January. The spot price of crude oil dropped 6.55% on the month, but rolling from the February to the March future contacts accounted for most of the remaining 12.35% of the decline in the component index."

Got it? Contango cost you 12% in January. And it's worse now.

+ k  F, p  ^3 e7 v' X* `What's so horrible about watching people plow their money into an investment that they don't understand is that there are so many nice, viable alternatives out there.
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7 D. P1 n5 k9 `The same company that offers USO offers a great little fund called the U.S. 12-Month Oil Fund (NYSE Arca:USL). Rather than simply holding the near-month futures contract, USL holds equal positions in each of the next 12 months' worth of futures contracts. Spreading out its bets like that helps minimize contango, which tends to be worse in the near-month contract, and gives you more direct exposure to the spot price of crude.
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, N& c! N" H( ~. F# N" [/ zNot surprisingly, over the past three months, USL has outperformed USO by 13%.

紫光

谁给翻译一下，奖励5千鲜花。方便大家观看。

WST

提醒和分析的很好。

阳光沙滩

貌似有理。

WST

原帖由 阳光沙滩 于 2009-2-13 15:31 发表
貌似有理。

5 L9 M1 I* `3 l$ q/ o言下之意，实质不是？
愿闻其详。

爱城一粒沙子

how to buy stock in here

阳光沙滩

原帖由 WST 于 2009-2-13 18:36 发表
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0 I1 k4 s& v7 m, |2 g" ~- w言下之意，实质不是？
愿闻其详。

1 J( o+ w% Z: c# _! O  d别别，我是出来打酱油的，自己似懂非懂才那么说的。

Hathaway

石油价格不可能一直维持目前水平.
, L* z. r+ Q/ g  q4 b9 f6 ?如果世界经济和中国经济开始复苏,油价将会油报复性地反弹和上涨.

一路发

原帖由 Hathaway 于 2009-2-14 22:42 发表
; ]" N; _8 X2 \5 l, e  M% t- d+ V石油价格不可能一直维持目前水平.
如果世界经济和中国经济开始复苏,油价将会油报复性地反弹和上涨.

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; V9 ~& P. n3 n这是常规思维。

meili365deng

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[ 本帖最后由 ArthurKing 于 2009-3-1 11:04 编辑 ]

TDBank

英文不好,看不懂老杨帖的东东.炒股可以说没有不可以买的股票,如果有的话,那这支股票就不会在市场上存在,何况是一直交易量很大的股票.有位高人说过,价量时空,初入股市的,都先看价格.其实要反过来看的.

1 o2 R1 e! K, }, P现在,买USO的空间已经出来了,时间还没到,什么时候到,你要明白USO是怎么运作的,就知道为什么USO一直下跌了,简单扼要的说吧,把石油期货从四月一直看到12月,是什么排列,是递增的,就是说,卖出当月的,买入下月的,就是在干低卖高买的赔钱交易.

等到石油期货的排列是一个月比一个月便宜,卖出当月的,买入下月的,是干的低买高卖的赚钱交易,那时候,你就闭上眼睛,买入USO,睡觉去,天天给你下金蛋.

什么时候卖,你明白我上面说的了,你就知道啥时候卖了.
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& g7 I, q! p( ?一个基金,如果不知道怎么回事,就看便宜就买,胡乱炒,还不如把钱拿来请大家吃饭,多交几个朋友.最典型的加拿大股票HOU.TO就是不知道多少不明白的人往明白人的口袋里塞钱,使命的塞.

WST

原帖由 TDBank 于 2009-2-21 21:59 发表
英文不好,看不懂老杨帖的东东.炒股可以说没有不可以买的股票,如果有的话,那这支股票就不会在市场上存在,何况是一直交易量很大的股票.有位高人说过,价量时空,初入股市的,都先看价格.其实要反过来看的.
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+ K1 T; A  _. G% {; F$ s& l现在,买USO的 ...

contango 是因为仓库已满，要租船存储， 费用高。
* u- W7 b6 M8 r! u7 j! R6 d, ~9 H你可曾注意过以前期油可有 backwardation? 差价多少？能不能找到历史数据？

TDBank

对不起,不了解.

TDBank

现在差价越来越小了,估计夏天石油有一次反弹,高度可达70.

末底改

楼上的那个广告贴应该被移走或者删掉吧？

se200611

if you really wanna speculate in the oil price, USO, UCO, DXO, ... are not the best vehicles. The only investment vehicle that best matches with the oil price is Futures, that's all. USO is an oil fund, so it should at the very large extent follow the trend of oil, uco, dxo etc are even worse 'coz they also invest in bonds which affects much by the market other than oil. During depressed market condition, it will be substantially lower than oil price.

TDBank

原帖由 末底改 于 2009-2-23 23:20 发表
* e2 _8 i) \( E4 S& e) I1 I楼上的那个广告贴应该被移走或者删掉吧？

看见老杨现在到别的投资论坛上去耕种了,把自家的地交给你们打理.

tivuiiu

不管是不是今天你,我可是等了很久了,一直在期待中…

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以速度慢　逐渐被淘汰　-效率低
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