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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.8 \: ^( y1 x  W( _4 m/ s2 |# W

0 `, h4 }3 D  q4 A' l- BTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
% z& e" J8 @; S# ]
5 F+ F1 p$ S$ U6 iThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
6 w2 v- V  S6 T& w9 P
  \9 z* A) ]( B5 y"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. / i( \) A" v3 ]1 V& w

% T# A4 B! l* q0 iNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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& q+ |5 Q' P0 h3 q: s% {0 c: R/ NTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.+ e6 a, Q4 I) W& \7 t6 ]$ P1 j
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 6 K$ n: D& s5 B; T

' [( r! ^! b3 j9 G( z0 ?TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 3 E/ v7 Q+ O3 ~5 ~2 ~
+ ?/ y! V. k, h5 `
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

3 w( T: X: b8 d; M
: m& L* C# G  N: k4 PTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,1 @+ f1 l0 y4 ~, s

' B0 Z$ }/ i. _* o[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
8 Z3 c9 w# _( x5 k  b5 V7 s2 d 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。0 x, P( S* g2 W
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
/ G3 N! _' F0 r$ `, J跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

, S# o# n5 L6 F! w+ i很多人都回学校深造去了
$ J, `$ f' Q6 G; y% _# {嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
! F5 V1 W' D3 w6 IWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 j/ J7 l' y' L- }" }( Y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
: W0 M/ f0 j+ t4 }1 e% Dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to$ y! K% _, S+ O9 y
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# U: i7 Y7 T8 mformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
  O+ C$ j2 H& C5 F" Ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ T0 t( {. O# Fthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ n. E! V9 }8 `5 T8 G( Jmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# i6 m  r  [& g/ e# F3 ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ v6 t* a0 o- t" qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined6 l; g) Q3 O2 O
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year. ^5 {8 t4 Y6 Z$ M( X
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this6 P% D7 p1 P" ^
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms," y2 T. Y6 r" I: E# q/ o% ^
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
" k; M1 K2 i1 Q/ T30,000 new households will form in the province during
* b& |5 s9 r4 F. I+ d6 H8 A2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) ]' Y2 _) Z% r+ l8 tEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
" I( ~+ y% u& z9 z6 s- Ehomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 t" ?! [" B6 U2 _1 ~
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 n9 }$ r7 _7 d; J: ~* G, `has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 {8 y! s2 `3 e( O/ E7 W1 }# A& j
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
3 d6 M% p( J4 A6 Z: iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
9 |; }$ D7 X# _3 nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories* l+ `* I% c5 B" y. i) i
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 i4 a/ T( E8 d
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' H' r6 O& g* y0 g' }1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a$ Z! m) \( V4 q
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
; U2 [% w$ i3 r. n8 ~6 bbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& F, A( j5 o; |9 S: x
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
9 Q( z/ M1 x( x2 junsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 l/ ]% d/ T$ ]' M" `% ^, Qunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" X( g7 U* `' Hrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; ^, g' N4 \& e+ A$ q& jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ d0 a9 p9 N4 q
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
7 y0 b! n7 Z( f( A8 G4 g9 d: _( mof new singles, and, with demand having cooled, L: K/ v% c1 K, }; x
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 ^; o! z: a4 O: D
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
# R  `/ z0 g. B; z' Yboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 g% h9 _1 K& U: n: c8 qAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
+ |" x. q( _9 g0 q5 o2 o* [) `housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced' d( T* Y5 S! Y( T& @$ u0 b2 Y8 c& X; r
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale: E0 v' s% _* p; d
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. Q' V( R9 l0 r* S: Ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( j5 S# y7 B5 Y1 m! d; Y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
9 a4 D+ A% b& o4 IThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ d) J* g' J5 L% i" ^
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
9 H* ?$ Z& e- aexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
' S. k7 I; j# J! v2 yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’2 ?4 [/ U7 W. K9 t4 S' q
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* z7 j! e( U/ p9 {+ QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%  ~0 ?2 J: F2 o  \4 q8 J$ Y
leg down over 2009.' ~- R' I; q+ `* N; y
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 J/ y+ z3 C$ kAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
- Y3 d: H# q1 p4 I7 w$ N翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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& I. G* @# @) }http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments* R# n, K- X& i" D9 ^
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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