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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta- a" q" f3 R' M2 h: D( U& N1 K; H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its$ F( D- }; l+ U" A: O, z
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
% l1 p. o4 S4 a5 nare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to" w% B* n! h( T0 v
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( a1 ~+ E# g% {) H5 f5 cformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
0 \4 ?6 [6 k2 N( ^/ D! Pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% W# S& j; c' w _, ^, l3 L
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 v8 t& o3 t- U9 M/ w. \
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous# ]$ o9 f9 c. `$ Z* k
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; r* |) p# Y0 {# S" r6 Sprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 U: E, m# o* b/ }to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ X6 i$ B7 ?" @# h" B% W$ ~0 a
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 G. C0 e+ O9 T0 w
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
' Z" }6 A# L% ~$ M3 J: t+ lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: s& f4 M$ O! @, a% E' w
30,000 new households will form in the province during/ J% t1 {# j! D; C; h8 `
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., i; S* Y9 ~7 l, n6 L- n; W2 R
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 C# {8 K, T3 b3 bhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: Z8 W$ ?0 I: {2 j: a7 {
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
# O3 a, r2 R8 n# Zhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
) C# Q3 J$ _- shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ v4 A2 {" @, |2 i" p+ p: ^& a
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: F+ Q& s9 x1 t) U
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories0 y3 ~+ q" I" e3 c" w
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! C2 ` X0 d# u. G* B% j
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of6 q7 e: |0 a9 U: |3 `
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 A6 Q5 Z2 M& E. m7 t
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 r1 h G6 c# f7 \# N$ |& k
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
+ [$ k# q, w- }" N3 v, W: Itwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in& d8 {/ z- w( B( D
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 k8 S: ~8 p' N' `" Uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ m7 W/ D7 b5 B0 [+ m7 a1 _7 wrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the3 c2 [2 }+ V! Y9 I# H
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 d, t! U" z1 Emajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories5 m( a! w) r! D; }% |
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled' u* f' J$ h/ _6 K. r" x2 W+ ` } l. ?
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% G. Z* ^6 x4 ]0 `0 O" R! Y6 s
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& a: E' d4 R9 g& u- T0 Gboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.8 D) u1 [8 F& }3 ]6 H
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 n+ s# P( ~2 G- whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced6 ^, K% o. H( F$ J0 i
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! s( `) g, n# g* D/ ` m$ B
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even2 h' g. ~$ J* g4 g( m9 [
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
0 ?5 e- H/ y0 x4 x( l4 H' ~2 yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.0 s9 e/ O0 W& N' C( d9 A; E. R
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
% X& Z3 q5 u5 \+ }/ ^; x" Fresale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 G, n s# }% P8 Sexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 [* G7 @' o( K3 S zhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 b/ L |9 g# O0 Gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& a8 j* R- ?4 [% v. y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# T) k. ]2 o7 Wleg down over 2009.
0 F4 ~% [* j6 G0 d$ H# f* `6 x( _( N$ s5 L
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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