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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
8 e3 }" T) `7 p ]* D TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
; j \4 {/ l0 O. {7 c& ^. ?7 emiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
& `( j5 n1 m9 E7 h- Wgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,6 k2 N% d0 r4 U' E2 J4 R
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 v3 B: b0 y* M0 L2 l2 i# Q
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! B* M9 c* G7 S+ L% L' w5 W
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is7 [: J) m: c) ]9 s* e
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability' [+ c# y) ~ C7 \# U: E$ W. Z/ N
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
' q* S+ t3 U" t6 U. ?9 w- H p RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ o- s) k8 R5 x% e V8 y5 @6 x3 h
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,& p1 G6 p" f% F; B
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have; o' ^1 u) N( d7 I. c* [9 v
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.; @" z: S @8 f" ~
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the6 Z7 v* D8 U. m/ J, _& J) P+ D. @9 J
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
% y. X* F& [, P/ B0 ]$ {; thome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.8 K4 q! S- c) ~4 l! ~ h3 D
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' M4 y6 @! Y+ t# m, [standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ T; H$ z! l' `
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* o: ?% u: n$ Q! l9 i
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets& j( j6 \2 s/ X+ p2 I$ o
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 R5 v" f2 v& q' k3 W
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
- I( F8 D. u2 phistorically depressed levels.- y" T, |- ?* S# y K
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost9 d1 j) w0 F4 j, I) c3 `
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House2 N3 {5 u3 k+ N; g3 L/ _
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
, w: a; Z) k. |' Z/ @hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
. f0 Q E" W( venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
* v+ l8 l7 N4 bmonths ahead," added Hogue.
# f3 O( Y+ G+ g, T9 D; N o3 H RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest/ i$ E* c" _9 ^. s+ C2 L. Z
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary, N8 u3 A" z; D% o8 r5 u7 h5 z
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
3 b) \! \' E+ Q) S( i6 K3 Y. C The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
4 o& f) l6 B; N7 ~2 s) [a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
% p, y, s4 T5 B) l8 |cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
* I" [0 w3 p0 h, k) N2 w0 }! Y$ M. K# _takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 L& ]8 ]& z, Z9 S% i* c) T
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is T& b3 g9 J4 S8 W. b. W
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property: y [. H4 `5 K: U' ^
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
4 X( b `* J; k: \) }+ lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
: x0 I( m: M4 q/ Y9 G$ |condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.* R0 @4 T! o) O- K" V
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership0 F- {, P5 Z/ t6 O' f/ e
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 506 m2 u9 N& p2 a
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.* q% j! z( N0 ~& P
( z( b( U" E7 N+ e4 o: ~/ \
<<9 X& c" g& P8 B' h
Highlights from across Canada:4 o! o2 Y- H5 @# R
: O6 N3 B L3 U0 ? - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
& p( u+ ^7 I+ V- y0 t intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
0 `4 ^, s' l( i8 m8 \; j8 [/ K home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% B6 g! G a8 C/ |6 U only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track4 N B0 Q( `& m
since about the middle of 2007.
) p" R! j( j2 a/ E - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the1 z3 O& \& r! R- j5 V! v- B
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 t. F, _& B/ Y8 V8 `
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
* e$ Z+ s+ b5 q largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely! B( c' u; r. @. q: A* r
poor affordability levels.
. ^( ?" y" B& V) Z - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the5 P [/ S1 _$ F9 ~7 s ^6 d' d
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
% [6 t+ V$ f# K( } prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.' H( d. ^, H2 j6 a/ _! n. Q
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
+ b4 h7 M& v D) b# |% x minimize any downside risks.
2 n1 L$ |3 y* | q) P7 G - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
5 C: Z; a' [3 }+ a1 k! n6 l conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
6 \8 y% D. P& m$ \* I unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early; Q: [6 o( H* F } I$ x: R" k: S
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% p9 ^: u# L$ U3 y being restored to levels closer to long-term averages., i% t/ j1 Q7 O: c3 G# s* G
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- g; a% \+ y( ]0 R& X4 Y8 a Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus- o; a' n9 S- ^" O7 {
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
0 Z/ o; }& z* K0 [ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* f: O1 V# ?& T) W: w! `( P ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 _8 o; W5 e( w5 d
modestly in recent years.
! \- h3 k# F, k. o) f - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' w( g. l( p5 ^7 e0 j/ b* U' `5 ]7 [
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
% j- e6 F* ^6 H! q spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: O5 E* f! T# ]' ]
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
/ \$ t4 ]) E- i8 C& R5 _$ [0 y following two years of deterioration.( h5 P' S8 n3 J. M* y; w
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