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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
" T& U3 X4 `5 i) f0 ^8 i) _ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the) [' S* e6 K: c* b0 Y+ Y
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
0 X& Q- E- r. o1 ^: G' ?8 Kgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,# n# ~6 @7 ?( L, K4 h
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
" `9 i) J$ f8 H3 N "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
5 f8 X h% e, psaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
/ ], p) _4 e! kimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
+ n( U5 y) |- h+ x" b9 Qmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
# ~: u. o- ]1 x8 u8 _. ]/ K RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
, q) f4 ~) t" S `4 u7 Sworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 b$ P! L5 K+ M: y L6 g; Qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 w" K2 o' ]+ l" O2 bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
1 Z2 `* ^! [% B0 i The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the% f- y0 W0 C0 e0 P+ J) S. X" [* {& X
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 ]; N4 V: f: `5 ^9 b4 ~
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( P5 F6 Q' u5 }) l: R; Q
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
9 x$ `! ` C7 [8 r! n$ z$ G8 e/ r7 R" pstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 }. T3 Y% J( J n5 S0 X
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
0 ]) X0 S' g1 O! j According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
, {6 q. P; U. b8 k3 ~8 Ymay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in" Q; w# j0 P/ w
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 v7 i$ U3 H$ @7 D" S' w! s
historically depressed levels.* k2 ~4 a5 L! i! x* D o
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
& Z* o0 |* E, j% c7 jof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
" R5 E$ ^6 y1 h' n3 ]4 \8 ^prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# H4 y8 f8 o- J& ?* |+ V, L
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
! q( d, L8 ?" f* A9 r8 Henormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# G/ w$ i0 Y, Q. Y. w$ ]% omonths ahead," added Hogue.6 g* w# u% d* n& l% [+ G+ _: |1 U. r, |
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest! ]6 _/ E) @9 o) Z! e& M- B
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
. C- d8 m v9 g$ @% N$ E42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.$ W! |# C( y/ o- A
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
; N2 ] Q: i; \a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
* Y1 N4 u0 @- Z- ]6 N; Ycities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; _, T/ A! u4 j+ Gtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) s3 D) r5 {- u* x The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
+ B* M# L9 ?% X; hbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property" w4 g& y2 b8 u! V. X2 R0 \4 `
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented/ I7 {1 w; H3 B7 p& R* N
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard$ b3 q0 n9 p3 d0 a( T; m! ~
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.7 i8 N( |' g* Z& }7 y' o0 u
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 n6 i9 n# T4 vcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50! `& c6 ~ ^+ Y# H9 y+ ^
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.5 D* U+ n0 Z) @% x
- l5 c6 J. `8 j' G& R! C+ q, r
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% v' G% z+ \; p* V! `1 h Highlights from across Canada:
* E. i) {; e+ ~9 }4 B
/ i: N* O! M6 v t3 e - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has0 |" `+ h/ F$ B: X: S2 K; h9 e8 v* `4 G
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing: m' L) g; n- V1 U. V; ^; Q8 }
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: X* B- Z* \1 B5 L9 } {
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track3 ?7 n* j, ~: ? c
since about the middle of 2007.( M8 j% X ^9 a/ _; j
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
: _" y r4 ]. t1 H. Y4 L% K* C frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
4 \7 I7 K( w6 s: O5 y3 u: ?# k decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
. c8 K$ c y8 V2 G; g largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 f4 w' `4 t( {1 I9 N poor affordability levels.
/ M; E/ @1 h( S' `/ s9 A: L4 F; J: i - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
: q* O$ r2 b! a. I1 ]8 [6 @0 o vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and0 R9 y) ]" Q$ k* }4 B/ I
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
6 I* C) f8 f! D' _4 N/ p& Y5 D Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
* u9 T/ A. o; |) u" C1 I/ L minimize any downside risks.
! }# o. D" K- [) a( Z' R- v - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
& N. \4 U8 Z2 N$ C conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. C+ R% C; j: [7 F unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ b4 S' U: n. m 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly" k# \! O* l' n H6 b
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
4 a1 o! j6 {# d6 @9 [" X - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
1 P, f0 K$ |7 ^) ]: T) I Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus% J7 v5 j w! \# P7 u
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up5 E+ X. Y+ Q; P
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be, `8 C2 x, j. ^; K5 ]! h
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only! J2 J. L8 {3 H Z
modestly in recent years.% w! N6 V4 Z+ q- {0 Z, o! p( K
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
7 J! N9 ?4 O8 A8 @! q general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
. a* E0 n2 ^+ I% ` spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
* v0 [8 |3 i' Z* G! B price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability' W$ a) U, g+ K& k* E$ `! N
following two years of deterioration.* m/ A" ~. P: V, K
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