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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 9 M! E# {: S6 ]; k) a$ @
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the" x" g e3 H, ^0 ^1 j7 n- L
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive) ]3 L- L9 A0 V7 A" r- @5 @; B
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
- x' }* S) G/ q; E/ [according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.8 d* l% H3 B0 S2 m% k! l6 Y/ z
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"2 r. D, }9 h% e7 }
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is3 r; u; s! o6 f# i
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 L% u) _3 ^5 a; [- v; Q+ ameasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
' \# H/ M% x) V& o0 O RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
5 s: `' W4 E& ~) P3 Hworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
8 Q2 ?2 m; J F( K6 m" Wwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have5 d% O; p4 ^$ u' I2 }$ [8 q
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
5 z8 }9 @8 ^4 I' s/ z8 i4 i The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the2 }) D# c( k) n5 M+ I
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. K2 O7 ^. f6 C% c- ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.0 T4 S! N2 h. v
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
* ^2 D: s! Z& [/ sstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
2 P* }9 Z9 i7 pthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.( o- Q b% v' U7 T2 ^3 \
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
, R2 s% Q" t) k- Z4 \; Z( Omay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in. H$ P s3 n: D+ M" U& A* B0 F/ f
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
. T2 @- {. D; `! fhistorically depressed levels.
$ A8 y7 k! z) Q; K! D: J: o Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
8 V* S8 R0 z: p9 l7 S1 z9 m! t0 Aof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
) a, _. w9 c J( j" K( \prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
# j5 ?/ e7 ]0 t: W5 M. phands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This% l1 _4 w2 q( o9 o
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# d+ M: v0 W- @" q. Q1 smonths ahead," added Hogue.( j* k- N; H: g( D# E
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
7 l+ r, p) l5 H/ n. a; B {5 I5 j" hcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary1 u; r; l7 e3 P9 D ]
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.' |5 T/ G( S8 E3 K! {7 A! C
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
7 B9 R d! U! c) ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- ~" o/ a/ x( b7 ]+ Z
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only& p8 ]: Q s0 g$ {: { y
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.* T* n: V. u& D6 V8 o1 a: M
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is) g; h# J2 J$ f, N1 {
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property9 f- Z' d9 O! Z8 v
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented% h1 T- z ?* l/ k5 j! i1 n
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# D% n/ V# Q$ g% |' C' v% _7 Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home./ w1 h4 u5 c( Y# P2 S) h' T
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 ?! P) e# |; v" f- {- u2 Ncosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50* u5 k8 U' e d4 j$ ~
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 v$ M9 J$ }1 ~! |5 m( n P8 f
3 A z* n9 _; F2 s9 J, d. n <<3 b9 O8 K: j' |( A! |
Highlights from across Canada:
9 T5 v3 `; G- F) M9 j
' W5 C5 x. M4 P, t: V1 P/ f - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
7 J9 U/ ~9 o, T9 O- O intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
) c- _% |3 }# l- ?1 q7 W home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound/ `! b: N2 U" D
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track. k# a1 U& y- k2 t* z
since about the middle of 2007.
4 V* F- d5 g; F% m3 J$ t1 x0 V. q - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the- X) S6 T% i8 m# c: ]$ n- p
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 U; l+ }8 L- {& Y7 S8 k
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still5 u; G6 o4 w5 b, g2 J+ Z
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ J+ r7 z! e" D. _; v, H7 m% w) L* s
poor affordability levels.
1 j) ]2 o H- |& T8 M - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the. p4 s- K( q' i/ R, T
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
! Q5 ?1 L' _ M; B' r5 e prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
( M1 @; |/ y3 \* R Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to8 _, |' T: `# `( q
minimize any downside risks.! w6 {3 s- _# m# x, j, t6 z. v7 {
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
0 f. w! G# @ N. Z. R, N conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is, P1 H1 L9 [* [$ _. l
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early) ]/ ]* q! b% E" }
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
( ?5 v2 E2 Q8 F2 W D' L being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
. @8 ?7 U) z' ~; k - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# e6 U5 L# f! B w$ {! K4 C9 m
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus( P' X9 c! F; F! r4 ^: h
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
$ A. ^0 u& `+ W( z+ g4 x3 B reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" y! |+ @5 G! s0 ]% c2 W ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
1 X5 g5 j1 `0 C4 m: h modestly in recent years.
' \$ _0 H' ~; Q2 c Q$ [& d: M - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the" N% d5 J H7 J- L9 ?0 O
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot9 G+ T4 A. Z- I& K9 o7 x
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward* b# M0 \+ V% ?; T& f O. |
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
7 X$ X" i2 `( s: L4 L4 b! y. a8 F following two years of deterioration. f9 j% n, ]" b
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