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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
5 o7 _. [3 W2 H' H9 Y. P TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
. M6 b4 {$ J6 T' ~2 rmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
+ X" T3 H$ g" U% c8 W9 t1 v& c- Egains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,. k9 U8 a5 _/ Z
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
+ \! C( M( k7 D6 ]; P "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' [5 U' A; h3 V2 G. a Vsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
4 S4 g6 X f9 n9 q$ ]1 R; G; himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
- g% L1 ^7 }- V, ` \. cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" g9 P$ Z8 V% h7 I1 s
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
$ E; z/ b; ^+ D' S8 u1 Y) kworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
7 W( U" C. `6 N, x7 V$ A! |9 {9 Owhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 U2 V9 u9 Y2 q, ^5 X. Bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. W( _! c1 i3 X. s
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the: g( J9 Q8 h, S1 A
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 @+ \. \+ Y9 hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.! c" O1 @; }* ^2 m; `1 w5 v
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
; _( `$ ]9 X/ c4 E6 f2 hstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 U& M7 T* b4 v9 s, dthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.; S* c- W6 v, r C2 Z! K% ^) s A$ Z& _
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets! L1 S9 P. f7 e/ |7 W
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
; L& b- p4 _- nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
1 w2 p0 @3 K/ F: Q) j4 a5 n2 xhistorically depressed levels.
' d0 M# z, B b ~" E Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost9 S8 g: J3 Y, ~/ [8 q
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* l1 g' |" t3 e5 o4 E& N" {* ?+ c: Yprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& r" [! p" j; x* D/ z$ G
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
3 }1 `1 P, M4 v! d# Nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
% F: u# a/ W" @+ T3 T/ _9 w9 t; Fmonths ahead," added Hogue.
# `1 }7 d2 g/ u) ]7 r9 w RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest& T0 W) h |4 V) e: y
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* F# F7 Z$ q( S1 t# u& r
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
z$ o3 t4 Y" t$ h7 D The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for& l+ z( G- e+ a) X3 S. [
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ G) a. D4 X6 gcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
) n& k/ n2 T( H0 {) |takes mortgage payments relative to income into account., d( S n$ d% \7 J- w( R7 B
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
, s \! `, _% ~6 l& Obased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 K/ c6 i; g, Z+ X. hbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
+ C- \% S1 S9 W6 o8 N' Lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
! s' D) t/ X; r: l" { qcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 d7 s% ~+ R3 M* ?4 C9 y1 `2 i
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
6 d+ _4 @9 ^9 _3 G5 x5 d5 Lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50' c8 x7 n0 R- _
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 X8 Q0 k- h4 ~+ \" S9 J
0 I0 P; K6 u s* Q k, O8 p <<$ P! J9 i/ X3 \& U6 G
Highlights from across Canada:; e4 V$ n1 p( R6 J7 V: }
`! S* s! S" X. D3 j. `" C) J
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( H# D' z. O4 _" e7 f
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing: x/ P9 ], q2 U" J9 f
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound. @4 L6 u2 u. \, t2 y
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
* \9 c7 t( b7 G0 x6 m! W( K9 z$ Q since about the middle of 2007.
# ^; t1 V4 U F$ i6 ?8 A! w3 A( b - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
7 Y, H; Y3 |; ]7 v" E) f8 \ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to/ S/ M* p2 [+ D# D( H- P
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still) b- c) d. j2 Q
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
8 G6 P5 {! R2 B6 v7 b5 I9 i9 R o poor affordability levels.- z* a5 r d. T/ n$ N' u
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
5 v3 L2 u( j3 ]& t, s vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
" i' q: K5 y4 {8 C* K& p. z3 ^. D9 ? prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.4 @7 J4 j) j. d1 Y7 u" F
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to/ \. [6 ?. Z% C
minimize any downside risks.
, |7 [6 \' J- e8 B$ b- | - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market) p5 N; R2 q* y: I1 g
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
X7 l6 ~. n- u% z4 T. j7 A } unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& \) C" U- t/ Q2 N$ E1 L+ O 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly% ~4 g4 ?. g2 w8 [. v q% Z
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 y, k7 c8 D1 f' J y. { - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) _1 L; u* i, Y4 k/ Y/ K8 |8 X I Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' c S, u1 G# J0 y, \8 x
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ e( g: S& n1 R* W: K. z
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
8 o, k8 E1 t! [, R7 [; [* W/ V! } ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only; `/ }# u: e' R5 c/ z; q
modestly in recent years.0 e& i+ n; P' f; ~8 h# ^+ |6 m1 P
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the& w! l0 J1 Z" U
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) O' u+ I: S( e8 { spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% ?. r" X5 F s7 Y! b
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 O& t. {4 H- _: T9 Z' s following two years of deterioration.
+ W( Z _) t5 f9 i% {- D' }. n, o; n >> |
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