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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 Q2 S1 Z8 i% s# p
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
! D/ m3 h8 P' G& \middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
4 H3 W% V: y E$ h B( S# T- fgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 v! v% g) O1 E2 M* @
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.. ?) n( v' K( {9 t4 E6 i
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
6 D* _2 y2 [# w( g$ S# s+ A( S& esaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% b, ~& Q- O; Y3 q* B' E
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
2 K R- \" n2 L& u4 H) kmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.": y; q1 @* H5 N5 j2 O
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, a2 Q- S+ L. t6 d, a- x
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
# N% s* z% a; ~7 H3 ~6 ?- @- ywhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
5 x6 H' Y- _1 @) e& Z i+ Z7 I6 S* ^sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.$ l! p! E4 K' y
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
$ U9 A& s, P- A. c. Tproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a4 D5 w9 c) I8 K- v% E8 P) K
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: H, X+ |' o6 Y5 k, n$ }& aAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
6 K- Y b. t7 P) F: {standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 S4 V+ a% X6 `. A. R$ _* S+ Wthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.9 \5 S% L. v3 _0 _
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets! e1 k+ _0 y7 {# Q! C8 e9 O- H
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
( v9 Q: T! R$ { C& v" z4 E: hthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 K* s2 m. b2 M- j- Ehistorically depressed levels.
! i: R, G' _2 Z' I" B& b, b b Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
' K! j% m5 I6 C' v; oof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
$ G2 [) B4 y: `# v4 p3 ^prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the- C$ F& p1 Z ]7 B, ?
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) x3 y5 ~( m# n8 b9 Qenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the; v: D+ e4 Z% g: |, Y& S1 b Q7 M
months ahead," added Hogue.; N' d4 ]7 H% L4 p
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; m' E# ?; L T9 Rcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
$ F1 u4 m m$ Z, N4 N0 s42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
?2 {, e! W' A5 ?, V t The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 o4 x; B0 s6 z' wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 z7 T* i. x4 r/ Q4 c
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; A& M* b1 w9 htakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.9 e" s4 Q2 d: h$ ~4 ~7 k& |
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' C$ M5 e* K2 tbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property8 I+ V) t$ O& R/ v! L
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# z$ @+ b& E5 z( l
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
: I2 r) u. V5 p7 J! S Zcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.! a S2 J" Q. y0 J8 h, f
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
+ k" f1 h7 y6 o! `. c7 ncosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50: n" [ m6 h: u$ {) b
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
) `; |/ D+ X2 \( A2 a, Y' q- ~, N" l) U- j% }0 z
<<# v# N+ z# N9 Z0 ~8 ?* j
Highlights from across Canada:$ s/ }0 K1 t* U3 `
k& R) h4 H8 k+ W; o - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has& V- g) N, n( g7 W# G' D( _
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing5 W2 o+ Y8 f* B5 ~* P# X
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound& w1 r$ ]- o# w# U+ o
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track8 P9 {# b6 \) d: V
since about the middle of 2007.& d3 t; a ]5 ~9 S1 H/ [
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
6 l' U/ R, n! ]$ \9 M frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ l% y ^5 y( E. i decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still5 L6 ]: D/ v6 S3 v; a1 b
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
; e% A8 p, p9 `$ {; C/ h L' } poor affordability levels.
7 n1 l! c" {; S4 {8 P - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 t& s- o$ |6 K5 y% `5 ? vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
; W7 _. e$ [. `# M4 d prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly. g- z. x) O# u3 o% H
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
7 ^) Y6 _! t% |2 ]1 q2 o2 [- i minimize any downside risks., O4 @* T0 L% X, ^4 `6 A0 F* M- Q
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! Z/ z( A, q1 ~: `. F) Z
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
& e: {6 X# p/ \, @1 p! J* L unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
/ u4 _& M+ z4 I0 f! i 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
, r8 Y" D/ O( M being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ c& A ~) F) ^1 s1 \, v
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
6 v" G% [( T- [0 ^! l# C Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
( Q7 X! Z% k) Z; _7 `) C& f far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
- r# O0 ]0 I9 e' e4 Y( S2 V reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be. R; J# F1 A# A' ?' _
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
7 R+ Y; Y5 M5 P6 i, v modestly in recent years.
& F: `: b& L; G, k5 F - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the; K% U8 K5 Z R1 C( W/ x. V5 _
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# R: B8 g. Y* X7 J9 |- W& H spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward8 G& s- _. c- T) T: O/ ^7 }' T
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
: H( G( m! R2 _ following two years of deterioration.1 I5 L( J( p4 O! Y5 U0 Q& N
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