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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
" L( {% X- f5 d, Z TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& |1 j" h4 c6 i$ R% h- J' Pmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
( U" i2 L1 |& B# s0 B+ g/ F/ T; p" zgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 m" R1 \3 r& ]. }; Daccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.( ?8 Z- Y5 w4 @+ m
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"& A6 Y' Y) X8 f/ U
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is4 D4 Q/ s3 m: R; A* X
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
# T9 p% _: }) q! \! Dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
: b) P2 G7 X9 u* v8 \' `( ` RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is" Z ?3 N$ L+ N C- u
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
; z M1 y* l2 U. T3 fwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
5 B5 S" F4 r1 M* {sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. ^; ~- G/ b$ q. z: E
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% `5 g+ f6 q( h! p* @, X1 I! v% fproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a4 F C% ` s' ~ \. x
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ V8 Q2 P/ l6 C7 E |Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
. f: t+ S9 k, [3 Pstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
" A" r8 u" q$ c+ K" ~1 A8 F! [ y& [8 ethe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
4 k& C" J" v% f9 b& | According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: b0 E& n) G( U2 U* w0 Y \* G
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 `3 E! I( b- t' Jthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at$ _! Y' ^( o" f9 H1 I1 R# s0 o( {) k8 J
historically depressed levels.
: D" w Y! k; o Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost; {8 Q3 m4 N. N. h- r% n" Z
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
% O7 v0 w" Z2 ]prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& `0 ]( A& x, ?
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
a2 N$ ~' N' v' G- R1 Denormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
% b' [; s5 t# d' i- Cmonths ahead," added Hogue.+ y3 I9 R& z, {8 r4 r7 u! R) G
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 |' k: U0 g1 {cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
! e3 V: i$ d g+ y( C N42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
9 I3 R6 f0 T5 _% R: ^3 y( ` The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for' e. L1 `( i( L3 u0 Q' |
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these3 ]! V/ K5 A1 s1 U/ [- {6 _
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
1 B. I: j9 q& e( c* O. Stakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
- z, \ K: I+ m; t2 p The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
& }2 S% Z7 W2 }9 G/ wbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
- t; G, a3 u; m* q5 d. w4 r/ [benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented9 p6 s. e$ F+ h
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard' i" B/ v [- X- w8 v1 N7 }! ~3 ]1 k" d
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.; G+ Y2 |: k* q8 B
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership3 A; u& v+ Y3 x" U0 H/ |
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50& v* i7 X( N8 K5 b
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.% h$ j8 Z8 A4 @, {0 j. b
" i7 F' w9 x$ `7 k: T5 I% f
<<, _9 o; e ?0 n- n
Highlights from across Canada:
. U9 v- ?4 a1 @/ I9 {& i& @1 V0 {
. G; K& D6 Y. J9 ^7 Y - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
3 E+ t9 b4 `8 y7 K" {# U intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
" u3 b) X6 M) D! q( i home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
5 b4 H/ k+ h( @" G' c7 f ]/ i# M only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
5 ~- |* i" ^+ g since about the middle of 2007.' [$ D) D( ` A- a9 A
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! r: }6 L* | z+ V
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
' D4 \" y/ i' P6 Y decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 S- b L- v! W3 o# I9 j1 S largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
, e1 V$ s( ?( J; ^- J/ x poor affordability levels.
! h% v" J5 k4 E" c1 I V3 R - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the1 `; v' j5 V' w8 t# @2 a
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 f: L/ T: I& U9 o9 l0 A2 {& o& { prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
. L. [& E. \6 n+ L- o4 b Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
1 T/ g0 O$ S1 g$ f- w minimize any downside risks.: w; \3 G& y0 D8 J; p
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& J, |3 i4 M; [
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is4 C" }) U K- `) ]
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ e% H3 W* A- k
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) `2 t- o1 j. p2 R) ~0 ^2 x( A
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
$ k. [' c& M& H& t1 Z' n - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in: _; m. S9 @2 `. _+ X
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
8 T$ | J$ W! ~2 b. E; f far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up' Q0 d% N) ?) F1 r$ N
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" h& x* J( V6 @1 \. b- q T ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
+ e! I8 u2 _0 C5 K, S' c modestly in recent years.
# n3 K. b9 \2 V, k6 a( e1 R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) F2 u4 w! Z: q2 s+ @' e h$ @
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot& m9 x1 t" _" x1 d1 E( K) V
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
~% ?* i/ L+ u% [- z/ B( u price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
5 J& ]$ p9 ^+ W. S5 c following two years of deterioration.
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