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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
1 r9 @7 k, R( y+ E- C* b TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
9 K5 n! _5 @' O" N* bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- r5 f/ a! h" A9 L5 ?8 X6 X$ i
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 u7 h& q l. p: b( U" T6 Q7 kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.5 \+ K; [3 H& y6 u
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
) _6 I& p7 j* Q" H3 ?+ Qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is) i4 d4 \9 \ z5 ^% q* n+ D4 |; k
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
2 @4 v4 a& w4 bmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
Y! p6 |2 h7 v1 N( R( @ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
2 S5 h5 l; @( I$ ?% aworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
2 v/ H0 `# ^. g" ewhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
6 {3 m/ L% ?* v* |sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.% P3 R' X2 p+ Q J8 V
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
+ ~; ] ] g! E. l# Sproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a+ k5 w2 Q3 U F4 q/ d/ c
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: I l$ p4 h `2 P0 p6 VAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the8 ^) e0 u. V' k# Z
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and/ l' @2 a9 ]' c3 N
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
P, g0 f. ]' {4 H" W5 @* K According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
) _$ _3 f) B7 n# Y; b% hmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
$ n" u' H9 [2 H3 h. e1 e: c: Y. ~* Vthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
J7 x1 T, n/ N9 Rhistorically depressed levels.
8 D2 f. H" S( t Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost4 n& Z6 I- _8 i! o' {" g0 m9 c
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
, r, `( c- a+ A! O( W. j/ rprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the/ `" C* e' {! p( ~- K) J
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
7 Z/ }, u4 c. p2 lenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the# B/ a$ h, }$ _. T" |2 @
months ahead," added Hogue.
! c2 t" @' S- a RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest* l5 d. |7 g- v6 _+ T% n3 s
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary7 d9 X# s9 N: Y8 [, k
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
3 f H: j, C1 b/ U The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for7 C' G* A2 |! C. }
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ Q2 c2 o3 [+ Xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
% v' j6 z( |/ q- D2 m( r- M' Btakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 f2 b) d- y5 v# Z t
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
# ?$ L, x0 A$ F* m5 Lbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
' u2 g; m: L% l# y! F* E8 e, nbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented( B; }# ?% b. y P3 s+ @+ W) I
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
E6 j0 j+ \* D8 |condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.8 `+ N7 p7 }3 Z3 d
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
' R& i B4 R3 d( X1 Vcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50) I8 N! R! ~8 h% b: x
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 o) P2 `5 E+ o2 s
6 ~- i7 h; N/ B8 p <<. t% e3 y4 H7 e( k; S4 T
Highlights from across Canada:
( b) Q+ ?& L' m* p% u8 g) ~9 [( m& V, x( D+ w
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has K) j0 ?* e& P! M6 w7 |, i4 Y
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing% p% P1 U/ a7 ?1 m+ v4 _6 a r/ m
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
8 l# N$ I, s$ ^* e! l only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track J" ?: o# n c2 G7 X: ~8 q
since about the middle of 2007.* C& ?( o/ a- Y. g7 c; p6 f
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
. e: B/ V& _% D1 L8 f9 M frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
5 p7 _- x& ~3 @( b decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
1 M0 p- J3 w Z6 G7 a* t" F6 I largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely$ {7 }, f" c- R
poor affordability levels.
2 @7 R) r! j; r! j4 U5 |9 Z! S - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
" }* R* U u, b6 q8 @' W vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and" V J+ X! T% Y( K
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 n8 a# C) k# f/ T7 r' W6 r
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 X* y$ _6 ~; o6 k5 {$ o; k
minimize any downside risks.9 x/ d# N4 {) S+ L4 ~! T+ [" ]
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market; Q* [$ N. L! M a4 T0 U7 H1 S
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is% K* b0 `, b- X/ ~8 l( s
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early% x/ J/ i/ y' i1 F+ i3 {0 N3 E
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 P* U' k) C8 r4 M- `' r+ Z# x, R2 S& C being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& v! ^3 d$ y) C6 a% f0 r7 J3 R0 x
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
5 q W6 A# S7 @- X1 L7 F Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
8 d" R+ N& O3 G. p, Q x- W far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up4 q( e: q" T5 W! r; Q) ~: E
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be# Q0 k/ _8 i1 c; N$ v: C, O
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
7 E# f6 y: P m+ X y2 L+ ~: M modestly in recent years.0 A$ Q1 M7 T: p3 ?0 W
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the( ` Z; J2 U( W" C
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
5 M: H O6 ?/ j! e8 B4 W' H spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% w$ H7 M7 N6 @ e' n
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability2 E- G4 X' U3 n' ?5 A8 |: a
following two years of deterioration.
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