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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 f" P4 s. h$ N/ g4 T3 M
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the8 u% {2 w' ?+ q8 D- l2 z
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ Q8 f B% d& d6 H
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 X& e- k7 H maccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." O5 z" @. l, `+ v
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
% \3 c3 t' u. P/ T4 U. \( Tsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
) {% f' x# B* W1 B8 nimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability/ I! S* p$ W7 {4 |$ s* _- m
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
3 ?/ S# \% F4 `2 M" u' c1 ~ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
6 p$ D6 l8 e. y1 [; u; K/ zworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
1 t, D% s$ b" b Ewhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have$ f; A& v0 |6 z
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) }1 _3 p$ Z* ~ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( U( ^% m. i2 Q' ~4 h# tproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
6 M* a( K, t1 q3 v8 L5 zhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% U# Z5 T# y6 s8 G/ `" ?0 v
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
; H7 V. ^6 P* m1 m7 c5 zstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
% g( h4 F" @. [9 |7 z4 a* @the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.2 V0 p( `, n$ ?2 K- V9 O9 @& C8 D
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets; l* k, i+ F5 y8 l8 Q) j
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
8 t9 p+ I0 n: ethe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
/ U7 d( E- G7 e! \/ xhistorically depressed levels.: G' \% r8 U% W2 v" v! n/ G8 e, a
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
; [/ Z0 p4 W* m) d, bof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
, N! C, `2 j( d6 A% hprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the( E0 X0 U& g" z" Y' `
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This' M3 [6 v) R8 B* l
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the- \ }( I( k4 A1 U
months ahead," added Hogue.
8 S. m# E1 M- i7 R' E RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
/ G6 ?# }$ f1 i" Xcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary; o6 s6 l1 I3 e: |! z
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ R5 t- e: I8 x7 W" u
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
+ O! q' I; e$ }, ca broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ T+ A1 T0 I+ z/ `cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only- ?6 e: F8 u* |
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account./ Y" k l% T; [: O( n- P
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is4 d: X& I; S8 z0 m6 t1 n/ q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
# i2 q. i. M8 ?# {benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented+ b; p2 z; l9 t4 ^! u3 g5 v$ \
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard' v+ x: Y, e6 I# L& ?8 ]
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 c0 g4 z g$ m9 R0 T
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
! V$ C: Z! z( ?. ycosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
5 `( P7 q- c0 M. |per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 a3 U4 s, P4 m1 |
& K/ w, P4 T7 o
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8 U/ c0 j3 c6 w. O9 @ Highlights from across Canada:2 R% o w9 @" X& v( M8 `) m
6 [) V0 A4 y/ Y3 s0 L/ B" v
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' q0 I: u6 O0 ^( B3 l7 i/ {
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing$ r" u+ C) R6 ]/ T
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
: A' v) ~6 h+ J8 p only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
& X1 X& J* L& D! x4 m since about the middle of 2007.
3 {+ F X! w0 }. o# { - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
$ I2 |0 B! L' s frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to9 F$ g1 s7 U+ G; d7 Y3 F
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still6 M+ ~' }8 n0 u9 W- [! e
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely, p+ }8 D7 r8 R9 X
poor affordability levels.+ r0 |' b! q$ x5 M/ C9 B1 D) u5 M+ \
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
! M0 i; b- z7 { vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
! ~" e; b$ V/ A9 m9 P prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
& r+ \/ O: c/ g Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ ~: g! {/ F& V% {0 l, }6 |
minimize any downside risks.; i% X0 z/ T" J0 K& @' Y
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
2 k" @8 J! `- g6 c+ J% F conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is2 T7 R1 s4 O- k( k' m
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early# |6 W5 V3 u% O/ e" q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% d( l! F3 X' i- I* g# ~1 s0 y being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
! u9 `* o- O5 n% B4 U - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in! X, l( y8 D- i
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
1 l' h4 H S+ e: f+ T far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
6 L% Y6 l' G/ P reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# E& _! A7 L) @1 b ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only7 P8 S! _9 c, ~# X/ a6 Q8 l+ k$ p
modestly in recent years.
7 H6 m" p* g& F c/ C! L - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
; N! S: E, ]1 e general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 ^1 {2 \: _8 `( s6 H9 A+ f4 y% }" Z spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
9 R7 w- V. t. g4 F, \ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability' {( V! m' N, Z2 E/ l8 F! U& n
following two years of deterioration.4 ?2 | y2 Z7 a9 k: i
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