固定利率会回调吗？ 这是一个问题

年轻的心

) M, w9 Q7 E: O
Yields Down. Rates, Not So Much
0 i2 P+ p9 G3 r5 E# ]0 i
Canada’s 5-year bond yield closed near a 3-week low today, settling at 2.43%.  That’s down from its June 10 high of 2.81%.
8 b; b7 @8 J7 U1 s% R! W0 m2 \

+ o  R. {! Q* q+ e0 W8 q6 H


While there’s been a noticeable dip in yields, there hasn’t been much reduction in 5-year fixed mortgage rates (which track yields).  

At the most, we’ve seen a few non-bank lenders drop 5-year rates by 0.10% lately.  The Big 5 banks have not lowered advertised rates at all.
) F" J# m2 _( H5 N, Z# g" R- U
, u% L; h6 N4 u1 }' |5 k3 _8 LOne lender sent an email today suggesting that banks have changed their focus from aggregating clients to profitability. Given the banks just went through a vicious market share war, they may be less inclined to discount rates now with only four months to hit their year-end income targets.
The lender went on to say: “There may be some movement soon, but banks are ensuring bond prices stay consistent before they make a move.”

Smokie

appleman

Who knows? But now the prime rate is in the history bottom for sure.

年轻的心

Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
# F. S  @  }' ?4 ?" I1 x
Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.

# C* v- l; h- o, n& }1 r& {" H, G$ d; dSince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.
3 z% p. H& _: O
BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it’s because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."
7 J& B* T3 B, \4 R7 P* i7 T
He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."

The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.

% A7 ]) j0 O- fIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That’s a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.

But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous.  While you’re waiting, rates can move the wrong way—quickly.  

' Q4 l: z2 K& z% b! gYou’re usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.).  Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.

今晚打老虎

到底涨了还是降了呢？
5年锁定利率现在差不多都到5％了把？