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发表于 2012-8-14 00:55
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其实比饶毅更牛的回复是 Upenn 的 LAI JIANG" ~( S9 C* o9 E
如果是中国长大的,英语能到这种程度真是很不简单。
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http://www.sas.upenn.edu/rappegroup/htdocs/People/LJ.html5 d4 R4 l2 O) r
2 Z9 J1 ]7 x2 jFROM LAI JIANG, Department of Chemistry, University of Pennsylvania; ]0 q4 g; [/ r+ x, q( R
+ p: ^/ E q: p6 w) mIt is a shame to see Nature — which nearly all scientists, including myself
5 z8 {6 V$ J8 |0 b, Q# n4 l1 r' C, regard as one of the most prestigious and influential physical-science8 k/ Q* E/ Y5 t# a! s# _
magazines — publish a thinly veiled biased article like this. Granted, this. H/ x% X. ~- s1 Y& r: t p' K+ q
is not a peer-reviewed scientific article and did not go through the
9 n8 L9 G% }3 s/ b# S! dscrutiny of picking referees. But to serve as a channel for the general! K2 R8 D8 S2 }9 P7 z* ~1 I
populace to be in touch with and appreciate science, the authors and editors8 N2 \3 _: `- W9 ]9 N
should at least present the readers with facts within the proper context,
! A, t7 [' p2 r: ]/ }which they blatantly failed to do.
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First, to identify Ye’s performance increase, Ewen Callaway compared her! U5 r# \4 i* M1 L6 b) X
Olympic 400-metre IM time with her performance at the World Championships in0 n: z" \/ {) i8 c; k) V9 j
2011 (4:28.43 and 4:35.15, respectively) and concluded that she had an “- `3 t$ H+ F: c( X
anomalous” improvement of around 7 seconds (6.72 s). In fact, her previous
! H* w& |: X6 _personal best was 4:33.79 at the Asian Games in 2010. This leads to an' S3 X( l; N6 X% Q4 ?2 U7 n
improvement of 5.38 seconds. In a sporting event in which 0.1 s can be the7 [2 r6 r3 T7 w' g
difference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason for 5.38 s to9 q& B) e7 \. L
be treated as 7 s.
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( B6 J# S" {' rSecond, as previously pointed out, Ye is only 16 years old and her body is
6 R% }* x% v1 N2 E' B# `! ]2 ystill developing. Bettering oneself by 5 seconds over two years may seem
1 U: U' A- _$ \& `0 q# aimpossible for an adult swimmer, but it certainly happens among youngsters.* m) [9 C3 J* w$ X% a" |
An interview with Australian gold medallist Ian Thorpe revealed that his 4002 m# _3 U) u q; n0 a
-metre freestyle time improved by 5 seconds between the ages of 15 and 16.
6 ^) Q5 Y8 T2 {For regular people, including Callaway, it may be hard to imagine what an
! R* x2 W3 d: }1 w1 _elite swimmer can achieve as he or she matures and undergoes scientific and0 F1 Z; Y2 e& q3 `) B
persistent training. But jumping to the conclusion that it is “anomalous”9 }! M z& Y* R$ e. u- w
based on ‘Oh that’s so tough I cannot imagine it is real’ is hardly sound.
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7 E( U# b7 W+ J, K4 Z" {+ kThird, to compare Ryan Lochte’s last 50 metres to Ye’s is a textbook
3 o2 `4 X3 N& ^# f2 N5 ?example of ‘cherry-picking’ your data. Yes, Lochte was slower than Ye in, u5 o6 `) j! |1 p7 Z( a4 y
the last 50 metres, but Lochte had a huge lead in the first 300 metres, so9 X+ d! U6 w; V( M B" R+ D
he chose not to push himself too hard and to conserve his energy for later
; k$ G% _8 \* I+ Aevents (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the ‘use one’s4 o1 d5 F3 q4 X% k! `
best efforts to win a match’ requirement that the Badminton World4 \- \- D" G* L- t( |& ~7 l
Federation recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another9 u$ |; ?9 z% m1 z8 m& F; w+ ?
topic worth discussing, though probably not in Nature). Ye, on the other
+ z- W% O" R& D: ghand, was trailing behind after the first 300 metres and relied on freestyle
% ~8 d4 G# O% q2 o+ s- s# c# k, in which she has an edge, to win the race. Failing to mention this* Y+ E. z" o$ j
strategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 seconds
1 n# ~ K, u: P2 S! E/ d+ f8 g4 H' _faster (4:05.18) than Ye overall, creates the illusion that a woman swam
0 {" K6 k! L# c" I; {% Bfaster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Putting
- I' D' D# T, s$ y1 `aside the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that
; B/ V/ N5 m$ i$ Iimplies to the reader that there is something fishy going on.
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- _4 B0 G! z7 i+ R; XFourth is another example of cherry-picking. In the same event, there are* z! _' R+ q- x9 _! G2 ]; @. x0 h
four male swimmers who swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 s) and Ye (28.938 ?( i7 ]; j* ?2 P$ H
s) in the final 50 metres: Kosuke Hagino (28.52 s), Michael Phelps (28.44 s
& o% z1 ~( u X. V- j5 n6 O), Yuya Horihata (27.87 s) and Thomas Fraser-Holmes (28.35 s). As it turns" o% z Q% E( f" Z' T1 o+ I
out, if we are just talking about the last 50 metres in a 400-metre IM,( I" o' h5 ]- C: q9 g7 z) F+ W
Lochter is not the example I would have used if I were the author. What kind5 s; Z$ A$ V7 Z+ Z% P
of scientific rigorousness is Callaway trying to demonstrate here? Is it
( v" P1 ?. G# mlogical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume that he leads in9 h0 Q! W& E! D; _
every split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science
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Fifth is the issue I oppose the most. Callaway quotes Ross Tucker and
& e8 g" P) ~& i2 W, V1 Wimplies that a drug test cannot rule out the possibility of doping. Is this
* B0 d* O7 u' s! ]6 q1 A- ykind of agnosticism what Nature really wants to teach its readers? By that" W( a9 G" f3 i( T9 g
standard, I estimate that at least half of the peer-reviewed scientific7 E" u5 s) \: Z0 S+ Y7 N2 o
papers in Nature should be retracted. How can one convince the editors and1 p- g' U; A6 P" u
reviewers that their proposed theory works for every possible case? One
|) _1 y6 Z: F; G# s! ]cannot. One chooses to apply the theory to typical examples and to
6 f+ R( p( _ z$ H0 N4 K- [0 \demonstrate that in (hopefully) all scenarios considered, the theory works+ j% e( E) q( Z5 r
to a degree, and that that should warrant publication until a counterexample4 e' b+ X/ ]- n) ]
is found. I could imagine that Callaway has a sceptical mind, which is0 U& y/ F# W) o% B' s
crucial to scientific thinking, but that would be put to better use if he
4 y& k% E- i$ uwrote a peer-reviewed paper that discussed the odds of Ye doping on a highly' w) j- Q$ C, B$ e0 k9 \
advanced, non-detectable drug that the Chinese have come up with in the3 X) v5 M) o; n; W, C5 E9 v
past 4 years (they obviously did not have it in Beijing, otherwise why not( r! Q. F$ g6 n: C
use it and woo the audience at home?), based on data and rational derivation, k5 [+ `/ c6 v+ ~
. This article, however, can be interpreted as saying that all athletes are
# t0 c$ K& T: D& \4 N$ T8 d' Edoping and the authorities are just not good enough to catch them. That may
( V6 K% Y, q6 V: X( sbe true, logically, but definitely will not make the case if there is ever a, R- ?4 g7 j7 Q' K; ?* k
hearing by the governing body for water sports, FINA, to determine if Ye
. n2 Y. o+ w9 }has doped. To ask whether it is possible to obtain a false negative in a! L8 f5 A/ f. e% p- c* m% g/ B p2 l0 C
drug test looks like a rigged question to me. Of course it is possible:5 ?2 F! j# N! T* `
other than the athlete taking a drug that the test is not designed to detect
% y" v( r o. B* R8 {3 h' {, anyone who has taken quantum 101 will tell you that everything is
/ O9 o5 s9 Y; e2 I( Pprobabilistic in nature, and so there is a probability that the drug in an
, S; l, L6 {/ b( G! l" Q+ \athlete’s system could tunnel out right at the moment of the test. A slight
: g8 n& |: }6 u( C0 @: h" t9 B0 Y' m) Qchance it may be, but should we disregard all test results because of it?! H+ f% S3 E) w/ Z9 w* X4 A
Let’s be practical and reasonable, and accept that the World Anti-Doping
( F7 L/ j7 S) K8 a. Zagency (WADA) is competent at its job. Ye’s urine sample will be stored for
: l: F3 H- e/ Z3 Yeight years after the contest for future testing as technology advances.
& U- G! C* T8 _4 v5 Q" H6 KInnocent until proven guilty, shouldn’t it be?
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Sixth, and the last point I would like to make, is that the out-of-
& m h0 t! l( S' P8 X* i, ]8 l+ w: qcompetition drug test is already in effect, which Callaway failed to mention( A/ `2 A+ ~* I# Q; w: Q+ ^, a, D
. As noted in the president of WADA’s press release, drug testing for
" I! F* A! l; t! \2 |Olympians began at least six months before the opening of the London. @4 W2 e/ N' u9 Z% v2 y
Olympics. Furthermore, 107 athletes have been banned from this Olympics for! {/ p' j- w6 M2 F4 `1 H" m
doping. That may be the reason that “everyone will pass at the Olympic
& ]6 q( x+ r* R$ r0 l- rgames. Hardly anyone fails in competition testing” — those who did dope8 H# x( r Z' ~' H" t4 T
have already been caught and sanctioned. Callaway is free to suggest that a
2 N0 K0 R0 Q, _4 w5 Yplayer could have doped beforehand and fooled the test at the game, but this! Q8 M8 T8 t8 N, E
possibility is certainly ruled out for Ye.
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Over all, even though Callaway did not falsify any data, he did (
4 _$ U7 P- x! Z% B/ bintentionally or not) cherry-pick data that, in my view, are far too
6 d! k6 E+ u- d9 q |! Y' V1 O% Bsuggestive to be fair and unbiased. If you want to cover a story of a
5 D9 `3 L0 h" isuspected doping from a scientific point of view, be impartial and provide
' ?5 N2 W- j1 [1 iall the facts for the reader to judge. You are entitled to your
2 J/ \( }& n2 Linterpretation of the facts, and the expression thereof in your piece,
7 ? ` Z8 `( [5 T6 t4 ^! {4 @$ @explicitly or otherwise, but showing only evidence that favours your5 M# E! q$ H$ s, I( ?6 v
argument is hardly good science or journalism. Such an article in a journal
% q4 t! l2 P! A: \9 m" [* Jsuch as Nature is not an appropriate example of how scientific research or
# I8 p5 B+ G& @4 d5 e3 v2 j- [reporting should be done. |
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