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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...6 B5 y# a) ~; L( E- f

+ |3 q$ L% K8 j; J  k0 f% J' {: j" Z9 a) B5 T/ R! Y
The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very: E, @! v9 }1 s+ t9 g
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it: X* w5 J  _0 ]& k7 `! l
will be going.
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It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.8 m+ T; w& ~8 u& C% P! I* m

1 Y" X: D0 K& Q* W" Z: N1 jThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by0 U( D" Q" f. L4 z' g2 @) o* r6 Z
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an; D+ ~" o% \- Y, Z8 l; M. I
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. + z4 W5 Z2 Z: }4 P
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
+ {5 C7 p, w( ?% \9 {2 lvalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
% I9 R, J) J: ]! L3 Ohow much.! S- Y" ^  a1 d5 D7 ?7 b+ ?5 d

. z0 |) w  ~" `0 d0 nFor instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
; k' v$ j8 t4 q6 c5 wOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
# y' X* T7 E8 P- hstrong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest
3 M) }" y. s0 o* u) O, wfindings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -: y/ n. L3 R7 O! p
June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best, v- G+ [! L  P& w7 _
markets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact% ?. e! q5 V8 z  }9 G$ P- Y3 Y. L3 Q
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.5 B3 |0 G+ E1 E$ [3 I

2 v0 I# U. L. Y6 ?To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
' ^! {# Z7 \2 e! k  imarket continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into
. X5 ~% a0 [' I+ q/ a; F+ d3 Qthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we6 @8 |/ Y9 ]  z: \0 d' @; q
saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
! Q& f9 D5 Z0 Q8 `. O/ n; R6 AThis is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these7 `7 V2 z' v& R# ^; C! b
increases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
$ d/ Y. O5 _7 a3 o& _months.  
$ k2 ^- M4 {  [- V/ g, Z) |* p3 X  ^- S
Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting* s1 X& ^% H8 ~2 M- @5 ^
caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
0 y, f+ m* D% w' Ufundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that2 W, ]2 `, V: f( q- ~# I* v# U% F- o
the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
' V, {4 r* ^$ @9 P8 luntil it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all; L4 K2 Q* A- u) Y# M0 l* O# x" i
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions., F# y( |( ^4 p: m
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
& v, T7 A" {! N; W6 U5 O2005 to June 2006), also great news.
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, C6 \0 O* E9 C0 |. ?By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June+ {1 S$ F/ N# C/ J( ?; C
2006 New Housing Price Index for:
  u- d( u& C4 r# p  A2 \
8 w" D) a+ N) h5 T0 Y; H/ z2 v$ ]/ VVancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%: C2 U; _3 i3 }0 a
Saskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%: x9 ~" G" a. e
London . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%
( g& K  M7 E, xHamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%
8 k/ Q2 ^5 Q' Z% _$ KSt. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%- A( [9 C$ V3 N
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
4 e8 f; V  D8 H5 D9 j% F  K, IOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%+ C, R$ C  R6 Q0 h9 l; U$ {) T

3 l5 i/ G! M) J  GFundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing* D+ \0 }. v) [
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!8 X' u1 k: }. s: |$ t7 B$ J
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
# B' N. R9 v0 l; Ibe strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not; ]- T  T1 V3 S  C$ C
only across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are. E5 C0 |; M1 v3 B  F! p
increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
- o4 w" A. {3 j' b$ |6 A) Z) Tdrop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country./ N- F: d0 k+ e& f

! w+ v% q# E) s- v: KHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong7 q0 f0 U: _* C
fundamentals:( \/ w0 ], w. I2 ^
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in; N1 Z* T7 V/ H+ e
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth
( m; _) t) q0 C$ b) U5 @for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and& Z5 N+ h' g- }6 a" C
this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.- ^1 o* I& |# e" V
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2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
) K9 A( N4 U. F* y! O$ ~  f3 hworld.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,# J3 u; {) J3 \9 c9 e# f
the US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see9 q+ c6 f- {% \: |, A2 F
that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
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3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment
/ k* \$ c3 \; y; P+ o) U2 latmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in, U6 v; x( g( u
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after7 a6 U" E0 j0 K1 A/ c5 t6 ?" T
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest! b$ U/ [, o( G  M
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
/ f( r8 \4 [7 oproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
  ?8 w4 U: h$ t% t+ cpolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
/ }2 Y1 u! k0 A. lbeat it for long term investment.8 i2 X) ^! t# t  l
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4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
' W* `+ w, D) l  ^. ^a sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job
' a8 y8 }( ]+ y3 @) d8 N6 Bcreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)9 @7 q6 \1 ~$ U$ O+ f
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
& u* O3 i$ p; y7 z8 I/ X: {# zJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...
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Strength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
4 ?+ D' i  m6 Q7 z" V" Nfirst half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the
% [# F% M3 {" ^! d# H% Neconomy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
/ E! c6 h' _9 O% pthe year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
  N/ q, A5 p& arepeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with$ s  ]8 U& R: c, Z0 j
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at# e1 `" {# M& T; [+ L) R
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate5 p( J/ B( w' d% {
of 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in
$ g' O/ b2 v4 u! zwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong
1 F1 U/ y6 v% Ceconomy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed: E# z9 L  E: p/ H
'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
; C% N% j% }: h# T1 ]your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
: h4 L$ X+ n+ ]6 F/ \. Gopportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the
' f. u' Q+ c# ]8 [  {0 h0 m'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared8 M9 q2 U" q) n% {: z! N- W0 H
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.
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* r2 \, W5 `0 G% |  ]. k * U$ @5 x/ P' @! U" V! ?/ I
Capital Gains Comparison.
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KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial$ _1 L) |$ L. M+ j7 A& W. I! o
Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see, W$ ^$ v7 O; \6 u- u
how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:
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4 S; x# J- u: d, G' m2 F( A' R$ MBC . . . . . . . .  21.9%! [) D5 ]+ r# l3 h0 S  ?6 K
AB . . . . . . . .  19.5%
/ M2 Y8 A1 ~+ q$ K# zSK . . . . . . . .  22.0%
6 u( S. R( x9 R) dMB . . . . . . . .  23.2%
. O. I0 b( R% X0 NON . . . . . . . .  23.2%3 e: ]. g% j: p8 n) l0 t  w" U# v6 J& u
QC . . . . . . . .  24.1%* x# k* ^7 E7 m. m  F' C( o
NB . . . . . . . .  23.4%
$ x! t( b! p. N- s( S7 aNS . . . . . . . .  24.1%
0 V0 C' P, ~, ?' h) nPE . . . . . . . .  23.7%" N9 i* {2 s- X6 o. M5 {& E
NF . . . . . . . .  24.3%
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Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
! ]  E7 N, ?( \# d# L. y: teconomy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
3 @  E% k" @5 r- J+ H! _their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.: C  O5 T; [  G4 j- v5 x' q
+ b. L4 I2 {( d) [; {
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* * * * * *
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. N/ b  o5 l4 e) L" E  r3 ^Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the2 q0 [) [9 t* C" H3 i# m) r# X
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of
7 M; z2 I- X. l: J' x! u$ W2 P, U9 xcourse, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
8 X, E: F- a; T) C- C7 g  B3 K# p# levents like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion5 K; @2 C6 @( V
when you take action as a full REIN Member.
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Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the6 P0 W/ N& w; a' {# @) o
results in just a few short years.
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表# U9 Y+ k4 r3 c; q
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
7 V! ]: I' g5 f( X/ P5 e$ b, }) \' e2 X8 {; C4 |' L4 @3 S6 f' I% V3 O* a( d' B

5 l  R) A. C/ i- fThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
: u$ K: A9 Q( R* finteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
6 H& y9 q) _; O+ A# X0 gwill be  ...
/ h6 I! L8 v. s1 D) Y
* m4 ?; D' Z$ F  `2 u
谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good. : C0 F5 n( m8 `' Q- T; \
" G, K  L) U: f# Q
http://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49% [2 ~$ D$ V" P8 `

6 Z0 [! X0 E' C" GYou can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.
9 C3 Y  a& I( Q7 U- K3 W* P& U- ^9 o% I/ a7 j# T$ S/ |! D
http://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(86) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
鲜花(437) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。
4 g" f' \0 E2 X. ]8 s& d" r/ r" N+ _! h$ D/ _: ^) ^" O
***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****0 |& |8 x  E; ?
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原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表9 n: _% Y2 c# [0 T* M6 T7 B9 U
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX..." \: E! `) Z* B$ Q; A/ {/ k: P

/ ^: ^/ o0 G' W+ ^2 A3 |  ^0 P( p/ M. q/ c* I
With close to 3,000 net new people into
2 ^7 G) ^3 P& u8 E0 |5 mthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
+ m/ s, z6 A/ v& h9 ?& ^saw the New Housing Price Index ...

9 g' I# k! h# k8 |[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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