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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
1 N& L7 ~: p7 D1 W% m' i% `, z, H5 h! L
- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
/ y$ o; S& d* J* d4 e" _5 Y3 v( o: c: i2 f; F+ e1 }
TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market5 e; k7 _( C, \
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third2 h" @$ l; d, _- q) p
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic5 y' H& v2 ~ n$ s+ Y2 f
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit) G+ O$ r9 p6 c6 c! e& V: `8 [ g
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and
3 Z8 y# k' [% a6 O5 v1 U3 L& g: N8 J# Ymore reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
5 z+ l& z$ g# I# ^1 _$ t4 M% BQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal0 v+ ^6 e; l: m3 O
LePage Real Estate Services.
5 F( H! i: [4 v
7 f: ]9 j! a& p" P* @# r Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters4 T+ F+ ] J4 z7 V! {
are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
4 l) P6 k% W1 z' z- l1 uconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and, M9 T# y4 y. l/ W/ Q/ o6 j
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
8 a! Y5 L% p. [" ~residential real estate sector.
' m7 L7 O j3 G, R) a
. t4 }; ^* w d3 t1 h Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation
' _8 C s8 }9 i. z, ~/ S3 B/ y" c8 \occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)/ l/ }5 J. M" T2 t' ^, _
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562- t) R& _, [9 Y4 t
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
7 ~% H4 [2 H+ u" E% w(+13.2%)." R6 W& t6 K ?
% f/ }( k+ _$ L1 H+ W "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
4 ]5 V8 x7 F# |! Vduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the7 X1 ?; ?( A1 u& Y% h2 x* Y- n
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are; E. Z. D! |5 C
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,( t C4 o# f' a) X
president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.) z" x, Q: I3 A0 w* f
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We& y3 R+ J9 L! s! [ ?
welcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy. u- d/ e2 h, C
balanced market."
9 Y0 W4 r6 |& A3 }: s4 c$ S
, b- c5 ]7 Z" J6 H5 E) R, [ Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,9 M) `8 R# ^7 z: I" R z
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift
G/ n$ {' P+ V; B% [' ]. rto balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued- `0 B9 r2 Q" u% Y- c
throughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
# {4 y8 y8 q, u: cenergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
$ C& R8 M, L3 g/ smanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record" m# h k3 R! H- I8 ~2 q( M
breaking price appreciations.
* h' m0 R [. [/ n) R# `6 I* ^0 U$ G8 f4 q
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
7 h9 B8 l2 D2 N1 Ieconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the3 z+ a8 \4 k& r$ x% c9 l3 U7 {* Q
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed." Y8 ~ y- A4 w+ Q
) g, d h$ q7 {0 X4 L
In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid0 ~- {8 x, k/ {
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer2 Q; `& \/ Z8 Y& ~
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off3 ^9 M: [1 \" H
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.8 @ w5 [* i6 Z. K8 ?1 e6 }
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers6 }$ O5 {% e9 v8 F
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
5 [) g) w0 [# tprice appreciation when compared with 2005.4 x+ `. a z& \: H! A2 \' v
: R' k$ O) {& L2 U1 }
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
q( w' b! m+ d% Hmarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
0 @& u, X7 p, n3 [. B+ B' afinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada
9 V/ l$ b5 a2 l+ H3 Tare markedly different than those found in the United States.5 G& n: |, T- f, J9 Z' O
. i9 ]$ p+ M9 Y) k Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
( _, H; M6 ~( h5 |# e4 P! lAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's- T' Z5 z- B9 W; P4 b0 ?
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the- z: Z, N" [5 j6 ? R) b7 D# `. j
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
! ?1 u+ X- k) ]5 `& G9 Vaffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the/ |) d) d/ _4 q! ]' H* G8 ]
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and- A0 A3 _, j/ E- R) `( w
aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
4 Z# c0 L# S5 ]6 U" \mortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."7 h; P t8 Y' k W
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REGIONAL SUMMARIES2 g, D2 x* h& \ c$ Q* k
>>; Y, y0 V* S$ m
% u' X- N2 h- G/ p( Q/ ]+ G7 _! G Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in, C$ y" B8 b- ^" g% }; t- h
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate& x& _2 }+ N* k6 L1 w" H
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time1 Y! N' U2 t6 {- u! E; ~% K6 P
looking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
( t3 Z4 \4 U6 b) U* a& `renovations.
2 H7 K9 \% `2 c7 {% h5 i8 c- U
0 ?3 ^* K! B( j: v1 Q. d! r6 X) I The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight
3 D* R9 u& {1 q# \increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
6 @# \( A: Y. D9 ^- p& B4 a# ?" Mcompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
6 L$ v% _4 q' JSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.
! Q$ L# g, w9 u
/ l \7 D9 g3 }9 h1 m! K+ p6 L; [ The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
6 A* h8 Q/ _# z5 w8 Nslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the$ u+ O! K3 R4 ?
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new$ |2 H6 V1 ]7 ]. o
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores* f' D* v% S7 \
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes5 f# d4 \5 o, V
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.! q; G8 ^; E5 q- {
' E* O' r* b3 X3 s' M
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced. t- T8 c5 ]2 U' r3 M
conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
) `2 {' {$ Z6 b- V0 Zhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
# B4 s" k6 Z+ P. G& z: r0 owas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
|. s. z$ O$ I4 rdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
6 F, A# A0 ~" x! _ vbuyers with more options when looking for a home.
- X' J/ w- w5 ~$ U, K* r$ v3 r5 U& p4 T+ T" J/ ?7 q4 H
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly% z; ?. V: j Q3 N7 m- m( }
among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes
7 t0 O2 B! ?; o# n5 Tpriced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
5 j/ ]8 n y: N5 ^' E9 d) Fas some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
& o" F3 J7 C7 O1 B# \7 a# }few years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
1 I8 F% B3 i2 D+ i# b ?0 k7 n% T0 e) _; [0 I u. H
Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house: h. T6 u/ A. T9 i$ q
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory: g% \1 T9 S5 n! W3 N4 `. ^8 d9 s0 F
levels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
/ S: a. G/ M4 d/ s( tfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1," U/ B" U' j- s! L
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the7 d8 H2 o+ S7 y5 j
pressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
2 F0 \8 _- @- h6 \# w2 u" mmaking a purchase.
2 m$ S5 J) u9 b/ ^$ F& s
$ |3 @( h/ C. k$ J& h% G F/ c2 i Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
) s/ U8 h1 _8 h0 Amarkets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong' A" z- v8 }) `6 R) _! A
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
7 `5 B- h3 @# E6 P' {# Dcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting) z* V! l9 T0 Q1 b% M- L1 L
attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
% S. o+ k1 p0 T, C- Tamenities.
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The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels# ~$ K6 h) Y& b/ j8 r5 {7 g& E
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand a0 H! y; J# _; U
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has7 |! E5 M D$ W0 k
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been8 _7 g2 h& b- ^( s# S
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle( ]2 p1 @4 w& G+ r; W5 i4 Q
residence, rather than for investment.
- ]: g7 e# B/ h# }
/ L+ e0 p' u$ A0 Z+ Y The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as+ c$ P E. M5 c1 H% f; X
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
; M3 r$ y+ }) Nin a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
3 y; g) Y7 k- Bconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization: v/ q0 {9 g/ M
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
9 k5 |! L& a7 A- fthe market.5 o, K1 u7 b: o8 \8 s E. N! q
* e+ B L$ J2 Z* V# b5 L
In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through8 y. d/ P4 L" f
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In* Z8 m# q6 I' H( B( u- q0 R
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring3 [& Z; _0 x9 k) {1 ?' e
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
$ Z6 M9 n( l8 @: M9 Jto the shortage of available inventory.
& u- D6 s9 b& j0 i% |8 |$ g% X$ {) ]) Z6 F$ v! J: \
Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its% Q& C7 z, E2 k
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains/ b. ]( O& S" Z( r) b' R
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses
" o, p! N9 o3 D# Zstruggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
5 o A( q# B t, g$ p ? }. ]$ s0 \3 {; y2 y" Q. O4 D# j
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
. K5 O. U! @5 {" s3 R& R* J4 |in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low a: F! l* h. f, n
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
* @3 R$ n4 ` |% Q' npressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring: _8 u: |, U8 \* N( |2 `
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
6 S- ~- B6 c1 f' [. `* @1 eseason - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as0 l# j: E/ Z) r$ k/ o
buyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.3 T0 }" X& P+ R2 M
& ?- [8 J9 b$ v9 Z Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
. A6 b0 |- ^+ r9 D. v+ Fas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
- u: A1 {2 G$ Y1 E" tremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry," l9 ~4 k4 H0 t" c1 m
maintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices8 z5 L8 H- M' |6 k/ i
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
7 t+ I6 e$ \4 ^: w0 |& s' ?# Xin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly+ x6 w& E. p( ^4 O6 R; X1 c
towards the end of 2006.
. T# b. e% e( N2 b, n
2 M/ y i0 O5 jWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of. X: Q* d4 R: k* _1 x' r- f$ \0 S n
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable
( S Z) q# [) r* ^8 j; J" y# Sto meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse; i. x! V8 m' b8 n
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to7 l3 V( U D! z2 l+ W% L
foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
2 {4 M( M: z% P( B5 Kpressure on tight inventory levels. }, I! ?. [7 i' k- D
& ?4 N+ \! ^1 W; Y+ G+ r Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
+ h0 L5 G, O$ E0 I6 E7 q! [fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people3 L& l7 p A0 i, [9 ^) A
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
4 T6 |( x/ H$ t4 v, l# `+ fwhile increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
9 f$ c9 s' h) i8 B4 W9 b4 x3 a& E3 Lfor a home, helping to normalize the market's pace." _" l6 |1 m7 W# P: Z! }
2 p1 K h @# y& f e, r <<- N% F( a% n% R! ]
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
* D' t/ f- m0 V- R/ g
2 V) d: e3 l9 L& s( U -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& k$ \& N( B- g* O6 p Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey1 c5 C: k2 P) D% |1 s# |# D
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 }. ~; h& i; E( C$ ^ 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
* v& Q8 `0 q- \ Market Average Average % Change Average Average6 H9 c* g" p j5 J2 K
-------------------------------------------------------------------------! d4 j1 L( @- t/ m8 l* b
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000 k" t% }5 m3 A8 `5 i- c
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 o2 T: P5 h' |0 R0 y; y$ X Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
; K5 _9 \! i2 V/ T2 X4 e6 i- h% w -------------------------------------------------------------------------. S' n" ~& h& I+ G3 @
Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
- _) c' k$ F3 C* W& s, Q1 k -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& y& \2 N9 j& e4 l' s2 Z/ p Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -
+ F# ]. Z. v5 | u( Y) T -------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 V4 B! E; B2 @* X4 G St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333 @; S: w8 Q }! E
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 e% I m+ }$ c: J0 I$ G$ ~+ H3 e Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
2 {2 m& y: Y" k) u# E2 v) X -------------------------------------------------------------------------: P5 A5 K$ U( ?: v" A a4 O4 B
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185" V$ F) S( n& D- s: E8 E% c
-------------------------------------------------------------------------0 W" B" L5 `" `/ d$ G8 J- c
Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,2500 S8 L- b$ w6 v$ c) D/ ^
-------------------------------------------------------------------------) D9 h# c3 ~' B3 D7 U/ m$ N
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
% ^6 \* o4 E- m4 x8 ^* \ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& _+ D" X5 l* \/ w. f Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707& e# O0 U8 i6 Z$ f( b
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
# ~/ n# ]+ z$ _/ O Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
: K3 ?8 j% }7 q0 p' V& H& S -------------------------------------------------------------------------
- C' J& L7 u' n" b Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389* c4 G1 T$ C( D& q: B& H B! ?# L
-------------------------------------------------------------------------7 y% t) O& @8 n# a! O& _' E0 {
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,7143 K& I) ?. ^# a+ ?% {' [& x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
: M& p. o% g: ?$ f9 s2 r" j# b2 Q Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
/ `, x* z4 G5 f2 n+ H -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& `5 r" q5 {. z+ \( @) P( b- e' V Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
t2 W0 P. _& C1 Q# Y -------------------------------------------------------------------------& i9 y$ s4 y& d) s8 y# C5 ^0 @/ R/ o1 Z
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860
) H7 T }4 a( n3 W% a% ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 D' H0 C: A$ M. z8 ], q: T3 A9 W3 x& A# [2 p
-------------------------------------------------------------. N' Q, ?( r6 n+ x& z
Standard Condominium
@) T" l( S2 g* C -------------------------------------------------------------
8 m7 d$ } Y. H2 t- d 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo7 l2 P$ C4 c3 ?: Z% n M
Market % Change Average Average % Change3 F6 L4 f' n- \; U
-------------------------------------------------------------
* u# Z4 |4 I# b3 P Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%/ z% C% T* h; c- u* t" D
-------------------------------------------------------------( m" u& |5 z4 Q) ?/ j( v0 r9 g4 W
Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%9 Z( v3 t# }: u! @& z: y- N/ P
-------------------------------------------------------------
7 g6 y* E- X- r. `0 @3 n Q Moncton 4.9% - - N/A4 Q$ v* R3 P0 b+ x% C
-------------------------------------------------------------: g- X# o9 h9 C, [
Saint John N/A - - N/A
$ t8 N: X0 L8 a% T8 j( E9 u7 @ -------------------------------------------------------------
* ]1 z2 u9 Q ~+ v9 d) A* g' Y% q St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%# |/ S9 g2 P, X5 @5 ~: t9 L, K
-------------------------------------------------------------
1 c) H( c8 | t% P2 v# }) v Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%3 P7 B1 [% J# [" J. ]: D) r; l9 E
-------------------------------------------------------------
- F3 e' H, R' V" D* l* L* n Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%1 F) K% \1 k; O
-------------------------------------------------------------
/ R( {4 F( b+ U- w$ s" Q Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%( |7 A+ I: p! u# l) k/ }: k
-------------------------------------------------------------& _* l) v$ _, I4 d' i
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%3 t, k* G7 N; F& C2 `: T8 Q
-------------------------------------------------------------8 s9 u w9 J, v0 ^8 N( f
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%# ]9 Z6 R% G( A6 g
-------------------------------------------------------------
( ?+ f G9 ~6 R* r Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%6 M/ R& H* e4 M. s* L& p( d( s
-------------------------------------------------------------- e( R# J [! b8 `" R' h# U$ Q
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%! ?7 }0 O. Q0 Y s2 F
-------------------------------------------------------------
, P2 N0 m- ]$ A1 s& l% r& J" P, W Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
+ S6 y. f/ w- h# @* G; n+ | -------------------------------------------------------------
5 o2 R+ g5 Y6 D* B8 h& V" D Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
. {/ g( W+ n2 f3 N -------------------------------------------------------------$ e" ~8 [! {; w+ ]1 Y
Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%; I7 Y' s/ W, j/ C9 k. t9 _
-------------------------------------------------------------
' d U5 k- R4 ]6 O( M% h) p, g National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
9 @4 Q3 N( y$ W& b; h6 t! U ------------------------------------------------------------- Z* b! d' f- D) n
>>. \$ E: H0 M8 G. R o' I/ G8 j5 K
* g& D3 @2 d2 F* b
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined
% r9 {6 D5 S1 s U/ V& b0 jin the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint0 ], ^2 O, ^+ U6 v
John and Victoria.) ^ j+ v( e. S/ Y5 e
3 C B$ S# q* q4 T The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
: V# p/ V5 U3 g% ~" k+ G) Acomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of6 J- V4 B; D4 C; N" k) Q
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
4 z( j# J( ^, b1 f9 D( U: Q+ h* E0 ~references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price" Z3 x4 i% H; D
trends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities9 T0 t/ r! y5 `$ P3 v
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is
* ^$ A3 o) D- a3 _1 Wavailable on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current o% V0 p; c* L0 J
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable
& r( x0 r0 A$ Z7 `4 `/ zversion of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on! C# ~- o. S( b
November 15, 2006.
; s% a1 q9 r& S1 c( H5 F B Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
% n+ X8 p4 B3 g8 U: l! G' pfair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge
+ E" I, b6 I# o8 O2 z3 A6 Mprovided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is
9 ]* W, [# o2 c6 P Y$ r! savailable for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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