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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable - g+ u& Z# B0 k3 y7 F3 A) H
1 R4 u- m3 d0 H7 q. z- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -
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+ m0 N$ Z! Y; ]$ V4 i) B/ J B TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market) L5 V* q4 S$ I) b/ N, r6 ^
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third% G4 B/ ?6 {" e2 g4 ?
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic( ?5 M' F5 x3 M9 W( q8 E
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit
& L' x3 q! ]8 N# V2 S5 ~price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and7 \+ ?. r" n. f1 g: z+ p
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,0 c! d6 q* ~$ F6 j- [! ]4 _* C
Quebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal" R- p+ M2 W* {% C$ }; F$ l6 G
LePage Real Estate Services.
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8 i: u0 ?/ s8 {: e2 x Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
* ?8 ^5 g( O3 D- V. g& T) \$ m/ uare forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic
l* i% z% t. z2 E& b, }; c( t) Fconditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and. r: ]: K4 x) _) y* y% p
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the# R5 V8 u% K3 Z; L" V; t
residential real estate sector.
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Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation; F2 I9 f' \+ Y8 G: G
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)
6 P* O2 V* Y% S9 q1 l. u2 vyear-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562! L$ _3 W" `9 |0 ]* D r; y
(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380& C) A6 y/ K/ E8 ]. q
(+13.2%).
- z$ E3 ^/ B0 ?) y: C F! J5 F% }7 X) ?
"Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth
$ g4 ?& b2 T* p6 ?% d: G* tduring the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the& p/ \0 P# V- x' S! w3 N+ |2 A
frenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are1 J' K; X; h9 f5 \, C9 z+ D
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
- i* y" L6 h- A, ~7 dpresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
/ n9 r5 g' O. f+ M$ R) b"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
' G" u4 l! q+ Z7 Z# g3 vwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy
. R+ X$ j% }) Q& X5 _, a R4 Wbalanced market."! k: w0 e M% s
( z* Y# e, r( P. x/ O' S! v9 Z' q
Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,- [5 t' \7 j" }) P% L
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift8 N5 g! u( A6 `
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
' [* k4 e; r$ W( y/ j7 Athroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core
" ]- \& \' O9 T. ~; i3 @1 M' oenergy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,3 ?& f$ Z3 }8 N6 N+ c1 d2 \
manageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
, p. Q; {- |0 W7 k& Obreaking price appreciations.9 L3 L( `6 S e | S4 e
6 E; ?1 z6 Y [. u! [$ o! @( T7 B6 Z' C
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding2 H# s2 w5 h. Q' \9 @# t/ g
economy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the) A3 ~3 m6 U( A. z% w
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
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1 e+ y! f/ T/ j( h In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid
3 P7 T/ r& t, T5 d& reconomic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer
+ u- k0 m; d9 \5 G: o5 Jconfidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off. m" y( m) l( Z0 B2 y
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.7 w9 x; d& [& U; k# L: ?+ T1 ]& r
In Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers# }0 G# l H. J9 a, G
greater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of
4 Q# {9 n: W e3 \price appreciation when compared with 2005. S3 e) P% l: y4 `; S- [
' j. ^; o! S+ H# d1 N
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing
2 u$ f/ ~: E4 H6 p5 U; i/ m8 kmarket is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and
" x r0 S) v0 J0 N- n% Zfinancial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada Y p H, a9 B. f4 q5 D
are markedly different than those found in the United States.
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Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the- t& [9 P2 n0 n0 n! D6 d
American market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's G. o4 `; g4 p$ V+ g6 Y# t
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the' ^0 p# ]" `9 D8 \4 i4 y) I5 _
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general/ P8 s2 l% Y: u* J: v2 m5 P w
affordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the, ~: A8 ^* C' G3 o: Y7 R$ @4 \
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
6 [( a& P6 C2 J! ?* q7 m/ \aggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
3 M7 W2 h6 W7 g) K _2 Cmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."
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: v$ F* u5 L# {/ k( A6 | <<0 d4 v+ c5 L& |) ~# M' t
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
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: @, C+ V- a6 b$ K9 a5 w2 v Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in
+ L9 H+ B4 T1 a3 NHalifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate- M8 h1 d$ w* ^3 X7 n' i3 I
of price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
& t8 U: e3 H- h4 Mlooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of
& _& F# f! O: M) L/ L* lrenovations.
6 b3 [9 |) i, Y0 J: @' V7 o# l% Z4 d1 Q1 ]% K1 }$ V# _! A% k( Q1 K* ~
The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight: R; S$ E1 E8 j4 v
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation! k. X+ o. ~( x9 r3 D- Q. e# w- q
compared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and0 @7 Z+ ]4 A- |4 Q/ N4 {
September and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.' f! {8 F' }( L% D
: m4 [, k. x" E: d" R
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer' p) Z; e/ w0 L# i1 u
slowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the; t( j1 f$ |. u6 z; N- x% H
quarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new
) N+ M4 W; |& b# ^5 ?' I2 i600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores
7 ?4 J7 w9 h, L6 I+ ^$ ?9 oto the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes
; N& C. ~" n, O; {and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
9 X+ e6 v* m Q4 C+ l% L- Y. y+ k/ k ^ k7 C6 B
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
$ r6 Q3 L1 e3 C# r' Q& \conditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
1 O. K' q. v' e5 J+ jhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers
5 b- L7 ?' g; p* K5 i* E8 |( lwas down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
1 H' l; r& C4 I) W U+ ~/ bdollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing1 Y% a& `5 M, I: J0 R
buyers with more options when looking for a home.
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' T2 N9 ?7 r! j* `2 M6 d Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
; D2 Z% c; P' S0 ramong higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes7 N: |2 u3 z i" | ]2 o( }. z$ |
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,/ W. G. g) \- H) k \
as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
/ k3 l" F. N1 N; c# {& Gfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house
+ U9 u4 V0 o6 |6 a. G6 V% `+ gprices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
1 d* w5 k; r o! qlevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting
/ h7 b f2 E- |6 tfirst-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1,
' L" \: W9 S$ x; I$ C+ fwhen rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
0 Z: A! X# O4 O! l4 Rpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before
6 Z" M/ ?2 v, M6 ~- P' A4 M' zmaking a purchase.
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Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing! b! l4 i5 N5 ^) F) m: d* N
markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong
- O) ~- s9 g: Cconfidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city% [7 L. z, i% b% _% J. A
centre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
' ]7 \0 [3 s% `0 v2 Sattention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown- `" z9 e9 K2 Y$ k1 k# [
amenities.2 }& R7 s" l/ x/ P
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The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels
) y: ?& k& D `throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand5 ?4 h9 P6 @* x6 J5 d0 J( M" p
across the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has( y; n' q; Q5 v
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been) X% Y- z' J! I; T- v2 G# y
driven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
" R/ U" T8 v- [residence, rather than for investment.
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The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as
9 L8 Y4 X+ I( h( o' C4 R J/ |house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted) ]2 @, A5 y& d# M8 T
in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer9 M# l3 o2 d- H. r
confidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization
. W+ C" W3 T1 x t5 L; q! nrate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
8 _/ V, P+ R& A Dthe market.) K; j, z# L3 t$ r+ ]/ u1 N9 l/ F
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In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through/ t# \: f. ~7 f( @
July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In' y2 C* W5 c4 c7 @9 u
August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring
& c% D8 }; E6 M& umonths, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due0 b- p$ I9 ]8 P6 _6 g' P
to the shortage of available inventory." G. m2 Z! s# `
* R1 P5 v; d) f+ c1 w Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its
, ~. q( j. `/ ^0 y8 K9 ?$ Emomentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains; t6 ]" V* `- n/ Q9 J3 w% S
vibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses0 E3 M, R7 y! T* B/ t3 t
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.) {* ^7 c6 G- Y' }
* { b/ W V2 h; S7 v0 I9 ? Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
, ]% a. E# t9 C& [in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low |4 }% X; _. E
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
' y+ c% O" S3 j3 V9 G4 q1 kpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring0 X' b2 X, f4 k. ]0 g0 n6 A0 X& W
prices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer
* C8 W# G# q0 M% r- |season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
$ x& c- h) `! \$ [- T# Bbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity. `7 ^: N! S/ d! ?
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Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
: {, K" o, P0 T8 ras activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton
+ a: H1 Z: X! Cremained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
. c) ^# s$ o% s1 Omaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices! g" O6 D2 U4 [9 g0 e1 Q) w: { J
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve) a" m- z2 p: U3 M1 }% S8 h4 G* V7 {; J
in the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly
; Q& A# f0 q! ^' B! T% J" S1 ^towards the end of 2006.
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& W% X9 K* f7 t$ c. @. TWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of
$ ^6 U% X/ o& P6 B5 [inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable y7 T6 {% k# U. d
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse
1 Z% X5 r% o2 S3 u& g. `, g8 [group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
2 {2 W, w/ K& s* |# |foreign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added& p3 o! G& V" F7 e+ y9 g" a" ~
pressure on tight inventory levels.
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Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic$ D9 r0 |) H2 ]3 s/ ^
fundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people
7 @$ C7 L' \8 p9 B1 kinto the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;* z/ j. P( B; {* u3 A- H( w" `( `# u7 B
while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching/ T$ B& e5 |9 m8 o9 l/ ~1 g
for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.
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<<
4 R: N5 X Y0 l, n' R Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006
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7 a4 ~6 f( `! |4 d4 h -------------------------------------------------------------------------' E( ~3 f5 H0 i% q5 w9 F+ g
Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey
6 o9 x( Q9 K9 h3 I -------------------------------------------------------------------------* F7 A* H l) x! d
2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3; P0 c( O* J. K; {: i- ?% H
Market Average Average % Change Average Average
( I5 A" c/ [) T8 \6 { -------------------------------------------------------------------------
* c+ {9 n0 K1 P% _ Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000
' A$ H7 w% B+ |6 m6 V2 g4 Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------/ d; m/ [/ }% g n
Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000% W0 e4 J" A' v- W7 F8 @; r7 I
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
, b' o2 u) b- W( v( H% w& V Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000! k% H0 V2 B- `% K
-------------------------------------------------------------------------7 o0 u* Z3 D) [% o* G# h& ~9 o
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -8 _& b& C0 \% u1 R! {, b
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 N' i7 b* I; i/ k1 K St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,333) o( j( u" ]% Z; ~) i, M- R
-------------------------------------------------------------------------" r/ s3 w- P$ i
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583
% ^% ^8 G% p& O: Z$ ?$ W, R -------------------------------------------------------------------------/ o; o) _ x3 q+ M
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
1 N7 U# y8 G2 }0 K8 r -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# L- @3 J9 I3 Y! _6 s Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,2500 r H- N- y, x/ Z, E% |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------4 U9 \# e% T. Y; J- O. `; f6 O1 u" }! R0 P& n
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
% e5 m' N) p1 @ -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& F1 ^) [# B- i9 e6 `0 W: A Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,7077 N& a8 [1 E: x" {
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ j; S- r" b6 m- P: p; X Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
+ u3 A8 x" p( r; D" K/ Z G -------------------------------------------------------------------------; Q4 l |, p: x2 u
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389
2 ]% G& L" W) s5 X; u+ y -------------------------------------------------------------------------
. k/ E& I q$ v) f$ g Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,714
4 D$ p; h8 s+ `$ J) b -------------------------------------------------------------------------
& [- b- s3 d, x( y Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500( u1 \' M' M, A0 [$ N+ }! Q) }
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- N# e$ Q( [6 `" y+ j& F J7 I
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,0000 r$ q/ O+ `0 ?0 u
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 s$ r$ e- ?3 ]0 C. ^. r+ U) P0 e National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,860) Q8 M7 g6 b* N2 \6 h/ o0 h1 v
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
: c& L' r8 N+ s# k9 k$ ?- b, w7 ~ ^6 @2 c( z
-------------------------------------------------------------
/ C7 L% @2 r8 f' Y- m$ O Standard Condominium
# q& F ^/ j3 f J1 ?/ ~6 I -------------------------------------------------------------
! f: t# { {8 @1 I; J 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo
5 t1 _1 |) U0 Q, A# O, t+ @' i) A/ X5 k Market % Change Average Average % Change2 @% a7 ?2 }+ c
-------------------------------------------------------------, m, b8 S* |( u) {/ d2 L
Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
1 I3 F, O! m. O$ y -------------------------------------------------------------
' I" S- Z& \# `0 q q/ T. ^7 A2 W; J Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%
5 p4 |. \8 I/ b9 W! `. p) ?! M. ~+ v -------------------------------------------------------------
! ^! O6 l# j3 b' E* q0 T Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
* `) B; b: ~( E# `. {+ _7 @5 o: L -------------------------------------------------------------: c8 b8 h# l _" v2 u
Saint John N/A - - N/A! F- R: H, o* H' e6 f; X0 N
-------------------------------------------------------------
' {7 t0 I. I: m( q x St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%* u, b9 m5 ^' q( q- ^' ~; A0 f C
-------------------------------------------------------------
; e) U8 S/ c4 R Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%
% V% Q& G$ W* @0 f- [/ W& v9 a+ g -------------------------------------------------------------/ h _8 M: ~6 ~; ]2 d. U
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
" g3 Z$ a/ F: a8 [* A! z8 [ -------------------------------------------------------------
7 G m1 j5 |) q9 ^' h: N Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%5 J p+ x7 A( @9 z' v e6 c4 ~
-------------------------------------------------------------$ @# {" v. j2 m$ @
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
. n7 d" j0 x4 [- q& I/ _ ------------------------------------------------------------- p4 z! I3 B, ]6 e1 ?
Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%" f; {2 s' ~8 N0 v# n+ X2 z# } k
-------------------------------------------------------------$ X, L# C( e' ^* N ^
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%; J% q E; g1 O' w n7 a/ r a
-------------------------------------------------------------/ I, G9 A+ k4 e5 e P7 a: ]/ \
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
) } e3 S4 g& J* V& y/ y T -------------------------------------------------------------1 o# a: u/ {) P" D1 z
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%. a [6 e7 k h- U0 A2 _. d( q
-------------------------------------------------------------
2 y0 f6 Y! V8 i Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%( t: i0 ?5 l3 c
-------------------------------------------------------------
) p& q- ^) W) L' u; c h) X9 k. [ Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%. L( s5 M0 {/ P& y. l) v! V
-------------------------------------------------------------+ y) ~0 N8 s8 b4 Q
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%
( @5 i; u9 {+ S* J; G4 U, F -------------------------------------------------------------
' |: @( _& g1 ]( x( b3 \ >>6 i+ P2 H1 B! [' F% M8 G9 l
, W# c$ Q, M" D- ?- T2 p8 K Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined4 b+ ~- y) @* g" e3 D
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint! x( V) d4 y* D9 s& E0 y1 i o
John and Victoria.
0 ~; Q' H1 S7 }
" v; D0 `) h0 ^, }3 a The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
H: W4 Q/ o2 t7 g( Q0 @$ Mcomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of( i. I6 G% j! _* @0 [
housing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release* Y& a7 C# r. j
references an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
5 E4 O2 S% G/ r) `' |' w3 l6 i. strends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities
" H( T6 H F) @across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is6 t' J9 \$ F9 v
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current
+ J6 o8 |6 L0 a; i0 n& afigures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable6 t+ L% |, Q; q. l6 F& J( o
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
A+ V ~0 z# P; r" P0 l) sNovember 15, 2006.# I; F& c L; K. a$ y2 ^, \
Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
7 O, l: A' J# W9 `9 D% ^' f: L+ efair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge$ N0 k% r; y+ b# R2 Q
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is$ M# j' D. G+ \& e$ U2 ~; n
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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