隔夜cut 25bps...' Z5 @4 Y# n, M: }
看来保房市重中之重,跟天朝一个德行5 s& P$ o4 S0 x G/ g( M8 `8 x
+ o1 i- R7 N6 ]2 V! e7 SAgree with you on the point. The cut is Based on the idea that oil price will be up within 6 months as in 2009. They are gambling now, but have a winning chance by more than 50 %.
Houses will be stable so far under the policy of BOC, but your daily life cost will be increasing due to the purchasing goods from US. A new balance will be set for a while at the cost of increasing daily life expense. The result will depend on the rise of crude oil in an acceptable period, but it is worth taking a step.
加币持续贬值,近10%,本币贬值,代表加币计入的财富全面贬值,如果大宗商品如能源和有色金属价格坚挺,那么本币贬值还可刺激出口,可是情况正好相反,这些东西都是过剩状态,价格持续走低,这是典型的雪上加霜。 ! n, n. Q1 T0 K R' L/ c
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本来正确的应对方式是加息,但是这样做显然重挫房地产,如果引发家庭高负债率的大震动必然引发信用危机,决策层不敢这么做,用了一个拖字诀,降息,稳住房地产,寄希望国际油价企稳,美国经济走高带小弟走出泥潭,想法很美丽,但是万一现实很残酷呢? + c/ I6 \* L' a7 V. | ; {/ X4 |! ~, E3 H6 g' Tcopied from BCbaby yesterday.
加元贬值,出发点是想让前些年加币升值时关掉的工厂开起来,促进外国对本地资源、制造业、农林畜牧业渔业的收购和投资,部分抵消油价大幅下跌的冲击力度,支持出口,保护和促进就业。代价是进口锅碗瓢盆都要涨价,房价大概也跌不到哪里去了。。。。8 c( ~6 |0 Q& C# V
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问题是全球都是产能过剩,而且大家都竞相贬值,竞相贱卖资产和产品,加拿大有多少东西便宜过人家?估计还没享受到贬值的好处,先吃点物价上涨的苦,当然,也有可能涨不上去,大家都在降价卖货嘛。 9 w% b) }% c$ e h k/ h$ @9 W i对艾伯塔人影响最大的还是石油价格问题,高薪工作一定不会有那么多了。加元贬值对加拿大总体经济走势和本国人的生活改变不了太多。
It seems no prime rate lowered this time from Oliver's speech today? If yes, BOC is worrying about the debts in the residential mortgage? but has to give soem blood to the industry?