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8 A u# ~: R7 o9 t& E% \, ? h Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.+ X: E. H+ P5 P+ _2 Y) K3 ^
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/ f0 y5 m4 w6 j4 SThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
+ n- R: m- N3 oBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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0 [: R( H& H; u& d6 h0 O- MMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 1 B, O, M& j2 \( ]* P
: _. d3 L( n* J9 k. G$ K7 ?4 h& m) yBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. # @9 ~; s6 k; N) @0 x- E: a
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. $ T2 @8 U: U/ B, G$ ?
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" J) w1 `* _, e& I0 n"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 0 }5 @7 G1 b+ R) W! I" r1 a; p% k
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ! E) S7 m0 y7 y- B) }
5 [5 p! u7 e5 R. o \" U; v% ~+ X M9 S"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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4 w8 f- v7 c# j" r" l3 wCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 0 T0 @- b4 x* Z7 R6 m& z
9 Z4 |& O& U3 k9 J"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 6 L2 g6 `- E3 |; W/ Z9 w& E
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT Y, G! x$ h. r
8 b/ F# z( y1 B& N$ _: \He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." - D5 r& D$ o. B9 M
( }) b0 D: d, U$ VExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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, H% D. Y% _& s; qOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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& H/ x% @; ^/ G# [! uHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. + P- Q# F* c; z5 m9 G
1 K2 U7 q$ r4 C' F: [ B: @' X"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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% o6 \ u3 B9 P0 JSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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3 {9 [* s L$ Y1 ]4 ^+ ]Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. % J- R- |+ y# K! ]
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. : K' B7 r+ h" j
: w( g+ G% W. Y) J( h0 A, T+ ?* _Let the good times roll. 4 M' y2 e( @2 X+ d' i8 N
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Previous story: Bottom Line
7 @" g7 O* Z( n" hNext story: Building permits hit record
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