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4 X& v1 W5 c- h( _) A, X Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com9 U2 w- P4 J6 ^
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Thu, January 11, 2007" [8 @7 ~% K! C
. B% h& c+ o: n4 v0 W1 J1 B, LPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20079 ?- c" A/ S5 L0 t
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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# v) W. U a ?" }They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. % d+ G3 P1 p, Q& e; \/ t& q7 f0 Q
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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/ v/ |! D. d' X- qDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 7 b* U( z9 e2 O5 L
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." / W$ O! L4 `: ]4 K4 F
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. - N- R) j) {: @0 F/ {+ L
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 0 }! G! ]: f4 M' F
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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' \4 A/ H) g; I7 f" c3 E) wStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ! S0 |0 [1 p; c$ h0 [
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ; Q. A8 F$ W+ B; h
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 1 y- ~6 i a, ]9 s
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 7 N [/ j' g/ k+ d+ d9 g
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 1 v, n5 L3 _+ P {
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. a9 t' n l: @# Z7 Z: f t
+ i( X2 B4 K" x2 \& `Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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0 D' F) e% p) ?0 Q6 @3 t) h; @; G$ AHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. : f& C* u9 q j) x
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. . ` ] y! [# V7 [0 \
& m p. {1 r7 z' GLet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line
$ d, p. o% G+ i- v( T: Z4 fNext story: Building permits hit record
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