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) [8 Q* z* S% A& c2 y Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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* _( S$ |; f; |" z1 {Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
! j4 y4 p% f& X: [1 I4 m% qBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN7 N1 p8 H$ R1 S4 {0 c2 v% V
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q6 n9 f- o1 P( l$ m0 {1 z' ?They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 3 Z* n/ W, |; `* {/ S/ }
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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' d, m& W+ q) BBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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7 N, z* b$ l& v' s" jDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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# Y6 i0 [, p. G4 s' w"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." : I0 `5 n! I9 f! T
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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5 d$ ~. Q3 p3 e) t5 E2 N# d"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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2 u) C4 |7 R1 {( P& B; OCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ( c8 q* v6 W) ^2 d9 m5 G
. f( _0 i3 l8 j1 L' q' Q3 o! }( c"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. - Q. Z, N. @6 u0 S5 J: m& Z
% V l s- S; c9 n4 X, M"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. q! e5 R0 h# I/ w3 i- ~3 W
: [; }: [; B* o2 j* C c"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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* @1 W! S! i9 Q& iExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 7 p' m. E7 f! M: l7 J- f: R6 `
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 3 j* v/ o8 [" s8 N
% L: B, }2 Y& X"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. & O W4 g7 A+ ]3 p
9 a% i- |7 Y( R7 b4 U% J3 [So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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, B6 h" E F; T, m3 WYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line# D, c0 S! [- V
Next story: Building permits hit record
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