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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com+ y: x5 ]6 u4 o, v7 p7 g1 v1 o
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$ j* x- e( [& u% D' l! }0 I4 k, A In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.7 J6 K* U0 W, x* F9 T
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% Q. p: B9 v E7 g6 I; E+ G/ LThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
; {8 L2 g6 A) t' V* v* TBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN# v+ P: B8 Q0 g6 \
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7 k% U# W4 F7 m+ gThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. + g1 _" C# r/ \0 R" w5 k
3 k, k1 R! L- tMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 3 d% l" u; N; e2 s- P
3 u6 p L; p3 K% EBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. * U! R1 d! d- m% o. K, i
$ U: ^ v& @5 ~; O8 C7 Y; @2 xDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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" h! `/ T( ^$ F0 D f- [# w+ _& t"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." . t* o& ]. ^6 `$ B( B9 y* _
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 4 ?0 V+ n4 h4 F: A5 z# t
$ X9 Q- O( B# V+ J4 e3 b9 t0 l"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. % O, U3 }' F1 |
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. % E) I, f* P; A4 w9 u9 i( O: b) e
$ q: Y6 }1 c' _7 c6 Q" x"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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: P7 S e$ u2 r+ n8 h0 e"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT `2 L9 C/ x1 t: v. E% ?
$ k* @0 N, C+ YHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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* E6 [' L2 _8 [7 HExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. $ m, g4 @- z: k; V$ {* X7 ]1 z. L
$ Z, |2 @' b. F2 {+ iOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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3 r3 x' n7 w; y2 i( z! IHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. & m1 { P/ `9 E4 R3 h& P- n
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 1 o; }8 N3 y, V% z% w: b) @3 A
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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4 X9 t+ V A$ Z# {4 dLet the good times roll.
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