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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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Thu, January 11, 20070 |8 M7 ^9 N( R/ m
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007" z/ R$ Y+ y7 m/ d' T/ j
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN& L5 k* Z x( M" \' a
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 6 d# r" ~3 Z9 D
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 6 M9 D0 f" P( A- m& {
; \. w& d& O6 S: H' B3 w7 p: W+ gBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. A- W3 E @4 p1 t G2 T l
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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" B8 p7 [' G+ k. f* m"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 9 R% k* @! ^5 o& }
" g+ Q6 k. y/ ]5 u4 Q& h* lCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 7 D2 b1 f) S1 R1 v" [7 \
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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$ ~' c/ q; x" A9 e' N q"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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( Y# V t# u' g& M$ N"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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7 l4 p5 B0 r$ F. e4 v"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. / _1 w0 t% h: n0 G9 o* r1 F
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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2 f, ^) S X* P$ ?0 sHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." - _' A) Y+ \9 l
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. - B; U* E/ t5 S8 c2 Q* P
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 2 T3 f; ^! ]0 C% s
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. # c; t9 ^5 S& e
+ a* E6 p' x8 u2 ~- ]. R% OSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. : J0 [: h1 t0 w4 R. l9 B
& ?( Y; C# m' ~ N" X# b"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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Next story: Building permits hit record
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
