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; I% P$ J* W: r0 g, a# i) b Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com' C' r0 N. D! l9 @7 h% z
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4 @1 S8 s) {5 y. M) A/ k In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007- K, L8 v0 w+ p
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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# [2 Y2 B# z) j0 qThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. $ t! A7 G- ~5 n, M* g, I+ k
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. y, W3 D) M; } x6 r; I
2 j% W& l+ h8 g& b" vBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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2 d8 l3 T, p/ S0 ?5 J0 J0 _6 VDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." & ^1 s' L" f" ^1 k1 b% D
7 S9 G) P! G6 A" X$ QShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. # [# P; y4 H+ t+ b
$ [( U* l1 Z1 }* N# ~; ^" X& F3 V) G' DCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. $ [1 N: T$ W, U7 e: [
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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& H' `2 w: f: v5 UStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. $ r; A5 P/ R0 {' S5 S4 }
& K# o$ k i5 f D( N"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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0 `, F8 I2 x3 B* x) c"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 2 z8 R) B! S2 [+ b
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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) i' g, t" i7 E* I" p, Y0 IExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. ) Q* P1 E& ~& a* S/ @) X6 G( j A) S
! `8 A; n" ]# O( u0 JHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. : f! d, T" y$ j5 v3 e; g; e+ u5 v9 W1 p' X
. _% J& P; o3 `; F2 e, ?So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. . ^$ y/ P4 g/ f+ G5 S
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. 1 j% {: ~& w6 D" s
5 j) l7 N6 r: L% O7 z6 _1 CPrevious story: Bottom Line9 h: |$ z8 L( _9 J$ q, ~' [
Next story: Building permits hit record6 q1 F; W2 Y+ h# U5 b1 y( X
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