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Thu, January 11, 2007
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$ h: {1 A- j+ fPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20076 |: e! |/ |' X
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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0 H6 R( h- E7 j6 v7 `$ o" Y2 RThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ! P! m. L4 L& _% n8 w' I# j! [
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ( [1 B* r" x$ W& n4 g0 D# W: B
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ( Y, f2 a) @; Q8 ]( ?
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. ) F. H/ g& ^0 s
H7 Y0 T m9 R: z3 m9 q+ V. OCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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2 q, E6 t& a [; S U3 l/ i"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." % v$ n# I/ t0 h \; d8 l
3 E! d9 [ V; d8 F3 V7 uStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 5 N2 X: }: V) j/ D
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. % _$ R4 B) t# _/ Y! ?
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) b$ x* y6 i& D5 ^' [' bHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 0 k. A" S W, i* c7 @
, d4 N( C4 a! @* H9 W/ PExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 0 e# f2 a: t$ O0 x5 N3 s. n, g
! W4 J( I6 w( }' \Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. $ x; m* W6 I. N
: }/ j: D! z$ R( b* QSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. & @4 I+ w Z; G, ^+ J
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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# i Y7 a# l1 w q"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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0 W' `( L: A& N( T: Q" B, r" hLet the good times roll.
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