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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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/ n2 {( x- ?- q$ d5 m' D/ ]Thu, January 11, 2007$ ~7 f0 m" j4 m* P) z7 G
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20072 d, Z t0 i6 Z% _
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN" a& W1 u, \3 W
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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$ d6 b: k$ b y+ A$ NMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. + Y+ S, x3 q6 {3 _; H9 D4 E
% W( ?9 [8 D% u1 p) Y. j- r2 ABut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. - u+ ^9 ?* [" p, @8 _: S
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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7 G" _8 @: Y V9 n# cShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 1 S7 O4 u. {0 ^5 `" z9 L4 z
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 1 K2 O' [1 n0 A: H9 I& @! {3 q
+ o6 w# D! a, Y6 h, J"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ( X- `$ F0 I9 D# _; q. U7 ^
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. " Q* ^ l! O7 T4 k, X" i, ^$ p( M" o
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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* k7 L; [( k4 A- r9 p"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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: l' I8 a0 E# F9 v"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Y J& Y, L7 E/ r- X1 a, Y/ sExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 7 T$ |2 p- [- w# k9 U2 @' H( |! j# P
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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" b* a1 {1 y6 O% m4 M9 X: YHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 6 D3 B8 x/ E7 X
: K* h# O: N& R, x" }8 J"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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; t/ D( T I, s' ^So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. + K/ U0 j- w, U/ ^- a$ }# W, X
0 ~" ^* i0 R1 n7 R# M/ t% L) OYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. - Y/ G4 R* {* ?0 @2 T
& I* P5 T8 j- K- l"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 2 p/ `, r- |8 b. t4 Y
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Let the good times roll. * D u5 K6 Q. ~# }
/ g. X! ]" L8 {' s6 Y7 E! EPrevious story: Bottom Line
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